HIGHLIGHTS
Transcription
HIGHLIGHTS
Week 44 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Weekly Gas Report HIGHLIGHTS VLGC: Baltic turnaround in an active spot market Ammonia: Rising prices cause buyers’ concern Handy: Slowdown in activity Coaster: Weaker period rates “At first they’ll ask you why you’re doing it. Later, they’ll ask you how you did it. ” VLGC NH3 HANDY The volatility in the VLGC market reaffirmed itself this week. At the very beginning of the week the Index took a nosedive to the tune of USD 9 from one day to the next on the back of a well publicized single fixture. This, along with support from favourable product pricing from the Middle East, led to a flurry of activity and quite a few ships finding employment for the second half of next month. There are still cargoes uncovered for the end of the month and ship dates are still uncertain due to various types of delays. The next weeks will prove interesting as the posting of the Sonatrach pricing at the end of the week could soak up some more Eastern tonnage going forward. Black Sea and Middle East prices remained stable for another week, whilst a renegotiated contract price for US Gulf cfr is up US$15 on the week from last. With the increasing prices, a number of ammonia buyers in the Far East are announcing further reductions in operating rates, as demand dwindles on the back of increasing ammonia cost. It has been a relatively quiet week in the Handysize segment with little activity reported. With no vessels open on a prompt basis, focus has naturally continued to shift forward, with the first open vessel seen 6-8th November in the North Sea. The ship will however only be open for a short intra West European voyage before she is due to sail cross Atlantic. Moving into November we see continued demand in the Handysize segment with freight rates expected to remain stable. The supply side is currently seeing limitations as Egypt’s OCI/ EBIC plant continues to be out of operation, and Algeria’s Sorfert plant is still restarting its production. Yara sold 25,500t for Far East December delivery to Marubeni for US$688 cfr. In the Black Sea there is talk of OCI purchasing a 12,000t cargo from OPZ via B-fertilizer, at a price West of Suez we have seen some around US$610 fob for Yuzhnyy activity with one ship fixed from loading in early November. Houston on December dates and one Charterer securing a vessel ballasting from the East to load West Africa. There is some uncertainty for west loaders as there are still vessels available for November dates and current pricing does not seem to support much spot trade. The smaller ships have unfortunately seen less enquiries compared to last week, but the month of October has showed signs that activity is picking up. The question is how much increase in activity we need to see before this will have an impact on freight rates going forward. Our expectation is that the spot market will show some positive signs in the short term. However, we still expect that timecharter rates on a longer term basis will soften further. VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE) US$/month 4,000,000 3,700,000 3,400,000 3,100,000 2,800,000 2,500,000 2,200,000 1,900,000 1,600,000 1,300,000 1,000,000 700,000 400,000 100,000 -200,000 1 -500,000 COASTER 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 5 YR LOW 1 5 YR HIGH 5 YR AVG 2014 Ytd Week no -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- LPG LPG prices ending the week higher in all regions Prices in the North West European market ended higher, recovering some of the recent losses, although supply length remained an issue into the second half of November. Crude and naphtha gave little new impetus, but signs of firmer US demand had a price effect across the Atlantic. Mild winter weather is still limiting household sector demand. Petchem sector continues to absorb propane while butane demand is very slow. release of the CP for November, which came out at US$ 610 and 600 for propane and butane respectively., sharply down on October numbers. Several Fob cargoes were sold from the large producers, no doubt the effect of lower freight rates and recovering Asian prices. December CP swaps ended the week at US$ 672 indicating an steepening price contango. The Asian LPG market reversed some of the recent losses , ending the week higher. However, overall sentiment remained weak as supply length was evident into December. Prompt In the Middle Eastern Gulf, demand is limited due to well activity priced up in the second filled inventories not least in half of the week following the Japan. The November to Decem- BG Group has halted its plans to develop the Prince Rupert LNG project in British Columbia. The decisions is based on BG’s forecast of close to 90 million tonnes of LNG exported from the US together with weaker outlook for gas pricing generally and a very well supplied market post 2020. LNG Dominion has started the construction of its LNG export project at Cove Point in Maryland after being granted more than 60 approvals and permits necessary. The project, which is expected to cost US$ 3.4-3.8 billion, is targeted to start operations in late 2017. The production capacity has been fully committed to buyers on a John Fredriksen has ordered two 20-year service agreement. LNG vessels at Daewoo, costing US$ 204.5 million each. The ships will be featuring ME-GI gas 2 ber price contango widened as December arrivals were still uncertain and winter demand was still seen to provide upside potential to demand. US propane prices recovered on increased demand. It was speculated that crop drying was the main contributing factor although stock building ahead of the winter also could have played a role. EIA reported a much stronger than expected draw in inventories of 1.34 ml bl, half of which occurred in the US Gulf region, reflecting strong exports. injection propulsions system. Delivery is scheduled for August 2017. Jiangsu Hantong shipyard in China has received the world’s first order for a 2,200cbm compressed natural gas (CNG) carrier . The ship will be operated by Indonesia’ state owned power company PTPLN on domestic voyages serving communities without access to natural gas by pipeline. -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- FIXTURES SPOT Vessel Built IRIS GLORY 2008 BRITISH COMMERCE 2006 MUSANAH 2009 AVANCE 2003 YAMABUKI 2010 HISUI 2010 CRYSTAL MARINE 2003 FOUNTAIN RIVER 1997 BERGE SUMMIT 1990 LAVENDER PASSAGE 2004 JAG VISHNU 1994 SIGAS MAUD 2006 SIGAS MARGRETHE 2006 JS ALULAR 2012 JS CHUKAR 2012 OCEAN PRIMUS 1992 GAS LEGACY 1998 B GAS SUPREME 2014 CESKA 2003 Cbm 83782 83269 81629 80906 80793 80199 80138 79527 78488 76882 75300 5018 5018 5000 5000 4312 3514 3500 2939 Qty 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 2' FC 2'5 FC 1'8 1'8 1'6 1'6 Cargo LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG PROPANE BUTANE BUTANE RAFF1 BUTANE BUTANE PROPANE BUTANE Load AG BONNY AG AG AG AG AG AG AG HOUSTON AG TEES SINES FAWLEY RAVENNA STANLOW GRANGEMOUTH RAS SHUKHEIR FREDERICIA Disch EAST EAST EAST OPTS EAST EAST EAST ECI EAST EAST OPTS OPTS ECI DUNKIRK MOHAMMEDIA OPTS OPTS OPTS OPTS OPTS OPTS Laycan 28-29 NOV 18-20 NOV ELY NOV 29-30 NOV 18-19 NOV 23-24 NOV 14-15 NOV 07-09 NOV 25-30 NOV 03-04 DEC 15-16 NOV 06-NOV ELY NOV 28-30 OCT 05-07 NOV 28-29 OCT 03-05 NOV 01-03 NOV 03-05 NOV Rate US$ MID 80S RNR RNR HIGH 80S 3.275 MILL LS BSS 1:3 BALTIC RELATED 3.8 MILL LS BSS 1:.3 85 ARND 80 85 BSS FLUSHING 3.85 MILL LS BSS 1:3 RNR RNR RNR RNR RNR RNR RNR RNR Charterer GUNVOR SAHARA PETREDEC ENEOS IOC CARGILL IOC E1 PETREDEC PETROBRAS IOC ENI PETREDEC PETREDEC VINMAR ESSAR PETROINEOS OXTON STASCO Period 5 YEARS Hire US$ Charterer AROUND 30K PER DAY GEOGAS PERIOD Vessel BW EMPRESS Built Cbm Trade Delivery 2005 77330 NOV RATES The Baltic Exchange LPG Index 44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba Weekly Baltic average Baltic TC Equivalent (US$/pmt) (US$/pcm) (US$/pd) Last Week 104.80 2,909,193 95,634 This Week 90.79 2,407,814 79,152 Trend Softening Softening Softening 12 months Time Charter - Indicators 3.200 cbm S/R 3.500 cbm P/R - East 3.500 cbm P/R - West 5.000 cbm P/R 6.500 cbm S/R 10.000 cbm ETH 20.000 cbm S/R 35.000 cbm 60.000 cbm 82.000 cbm Last Week (US$/pd) 7,561 6,246 6,575 8,218 13,478 18,738 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pd) 7,561 6,246 6,575 8,218 13,478 18,738 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pcm) 230,000 190,000 200,000 250,000 410,000 570,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,600,000 1,900,000 Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady VALUATIONS We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures. 3 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- PRODUCTS & PRICES LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380 Propane usd/pmt Change from last week Butane usd/pmt Change from last week 566.00 4.06% 550.00 -2.55% 469.75 5.52% 506.29 4.74% 593.00 594.00 7.08% 4.38% 610.00 723.00 -18.14% 4.70% 600.00 703.00 -21.57% 4.84% 3.87 80.56 488.00 6.69% -1.15% 1.33% usd/mmbtu usd/bbl usd/pmt NWE CIF ARA Small US Mt Belvieu Non-LST NWE Propane Swaps Q1 forward Q2 forward MEG Contract Price Japan CFR NG, Crude & IFO380 NG, NYMEX WTI, Crude - Spot IFO380, Fujairah Various Sources Name Brokers Anders Lalim Martin Engelsen Hals Katie Du Sebastian Isaksen Henrik Konow Verlo Research Knut Stangebye Olsen Operation Håvard Teigland Spyros Bampetas Office Mobile Yahoo Messenger (+47) 2252 7707 (+47) 2252 7783 (+47) 2252 7736 (+47) 2252 7737 (+47) 2252 7755 (+47) 905 30 930 (+47) 909 39 949 (+47) 901 54 760 (+47) 958 00 214 (+47) 924 65 307 la_limno martinengelsenhals katiemin1209 sebastian.isaksen hkverlo (+47) 2252 7703 (+47) 952 48 490 knutstangebyeolsen (+47) 2252 7733 (+30) 2108 9000 62 (+47) 980 43 763 (+30) 6973 38 2273 havardteigland spyrosbampetas Email: Phone: Fax: [email protected] (+47) 2252 77 00 (+47) 2252 78 64 Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45 8th floor, lift E PO Box 2029 Vika, N-0125 Oslo, Norway www.lorstem.com 4