HIGHLIGHTS
Transcription
HIGHLIGHTS
Week 45 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Weekly Gas Report HIGHLIGHTS VLGC: Baltic Index stagnating? Ammonia: Price increases meeting buyer resistance Handy: Two addition to the Navigator fleet VLGC NH3 HANDY Activity levels have tapered off somewhat after a very active second half of last week and first half of this week. November ships have now largely disappeared however this seems to coincide with a reduced appetite for chartering in, particularly East of Suez. There are still cargoes available, however whether these will actually be lifted remains to be seen as the list of December deliveries in the Far East is now quite long and product pricing does not seem to support further trading. International ammonia prices continued firming in the Middle East Gulf, but remained relatively stable elsewhere. Speculations are that prices could ease near term. The week began with the news of Navigator adding an additional two Handysize vessels to their fleet. The two 22,000cbm vessels will be built at Hyundai Mipo Dockyards at a price of US$ 51 million each with delivery in Q1 2017. Both vessels will start five year time charters upon delivery with additional charterer’s options. In the spot market Navigator still has a vessel open in ARA region with a 10 day gap. The remainder of the fleet remains well employed with enquiries and discussion focused on cargoes with forward dates. The gas supply situation in Ukaraine may ease with the Government’s latest deal with Russia. However, it is to early to dicide how this may impact ammonia production. October saw just over 190,000 tonnes shipped out of the region, while the lineup for November stands at just under 200,000 tonnes. Production problems continue to dog output in Ukraina, Trinidas, Egypt and Algeria and serve to COASTER support prices, particularly West We have entered into the season of Suez. of time charter renewals, with and traders both Asian buyers are trying to resist majors higher producer price quotations reviewing their options. Statoil by reducing output of phosphate hit the market this week with a as the price of the latter is under requirement for two 5,000cbm pressurized coasters drawing pressure. interest from multiple owners. The pressure on freight rates in the spot market is being reflected in the period market and we believe that time charter rates will continue to soften. West of Suez has seen some Coaster: Weaker period activity with vessels fixed from rates as renewals are ne- North West Europe as well as gotiated from Houston. It’s not easy to predict the movement of the market in the weeks ahead, however there are factors at play that could see this spout of volatility prolongued. “Do what is right, not what is easy” VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE) US$/month 4,000,000 3,700,000 3,400,000 3,100,000 2,800,000 2,500,000 2,200,000 1,900,000 1,600,000 1,300,000 1,000,000 700,000 400,000 100,000 -200,000 1 -500,000 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 5 YR LOW 1 5 YR HIGH 5 YR AVG 2014 Ytd Week no -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- LPG LPG prices see large falls in NW Europe and Far East, firming in the US Prices in the North West European saw sharp falls as tumbling crude and naphtha values took its toll, while also weighted down by ample prompt tonnes. This led to a new 5-year low being recorded at US$ 514.5 for propane and 522 for butane. However, comparable reductions in naphtha prevented petchem buyers interest in a thinly balanced butane market. Cracking demand was reduced due to outages. Butane remained at 82% of naphtha. Gasoline blending demand remained evasive. following a flurry of Fob sales done last week. Fob discounts to CP steepened as Asian prices came under strong pressure combining with rising freight rates. December CP swaps ended the week at US$ 690. The Asian LPG market recorded sharp losses following tumbling crude and naphtha values. An overhang of unplaced November cargoes are exerting pressure on December delivered prices. However, the sharp price falls are also starting to trigger buying interest including Chinese bargain hunters. That said end user demand is still subdued due to high inventories. In the Middle Eastern Gulf, the Butane prices have recovered to week started on a slow note parity with propane. LNG Hoegh LNG has declared an option for a fifth FSRU at Hyundai. The vessel will be delivered during first half 2017. Earlier this week the company the company signed a 5 year contract with EGAS, Egypt to employ the FSRU newbuilding “Høegh Gallant” as a regas unit starting by the end of the first quarter 2015. In a separate press release the company also announced a contract with SPEC, Columbia for the 20 year employment of an FSRU on 2 US propane saw active trade and prices bucked the trend seen in overseas markets as cooler weather brought more buyers forward. Some easing back in prices was evident following the release of the EIA propane inventory data for October 31. Stocks showed a lower than expected draw of 144,000 bl to 80.127 ml bl. Some price support was provided by petchem buyers finding propane the preferred feedstock based on cracking economics. the Atlantic coast starting in mid- Excelerate Energy will be the lead contractor in the consorti2016. um to provide the floating LNG (FLNG) unit for the Ophir Energy development off Equatorial Chubu Electric signed an Guinea. The project will soon agreement with GDF Suez to enter the FEED (front end engibuy 20 LNG cargoes, equivalent neering and design) stage. The to approximately 1.2 million tons unit is planned with a 2.4mtpa of LNG for delivery between capacity with projected start-up January 2015 and March 2017. in 2018 subject to final investPrices will be partly linked to ment decision (FID). Asia’s spot LNG market and the gas will be sourced from GDF Suez’s worldwide LNG project portfolio. -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- FIXTURES SPOT Vessel PROVIDENCE AURORA TAURUS BRITISH COUNCILLOR AL WUKIR CAPTAIN JOHN NP BW DENISE OCEAN PRIMUS MARIANNE Built 2008 2008 2007 2008 2007 2001 1992 2009 Cbm 82423 82000 81605 80841 80595 78637 4312 3469 Qty 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 44' 1'8 1'8 Cargo LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG BUTANE BUTANE Load RUWAIS HOUSTON KAARSTOE RAS LAFFAN RAS LAFFAN AG LAVERA GRANGEMOUTH Disch EAST FLUSHING EAST SIKKA EAST EAST OPTS OPTS Laycan 28-29 NOV 5-7 NOV 23-24 NOV 25-26 NOV 2H NOV 25-26 NOV 12-14 NOV 7-9 NOV Rate US$ MID 80S 72 ARND 90-100 RNR HIGH 90S HIGH 90S RNR RNR Charterer GUNVOR VITOL STATOIL RELIANCE SHELL VILMA EXXON PETROINEOS Del date Q1 2017 2016 Price MUS$ 51M Buyer NAVIGATOR EVERGAS SALE & PURCHASE / NEWBUILDING Vessel TBN (X2) TBN (X2) Built Cbm Delivery place/yard 22' 27'5 HYUNDAI MIPO SINOPACIFIC RATES The Baltic Exchange LPG Index 44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba Weekly Baltic average Baltic TC Equivalent (US$/pmt) (US$/pcm) (US$/pd) Last Week 90.79 2,407,814 79,152 This Week 97.73 2,670,506 87,788 Trend Firming Firming Firming 12 months Time Charter - Indicators 3.200 cbm S/R 3.500 cbm P/R - East 3.500 cbm P/R - West 5.000 cbm P/R 6.500 cbm S/R 10.000 cbm ETH 20.000 cbm S/R 35.000 cbm 60.000 cbm 82.000 cbm Last Week (US$/pd) 7,561 6,246 6,575 8,218 13,478 18,738 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pd) 7,561 6,246 6,575 8,218 13,478 18,738 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pcm) 230,000 190,000 200,000 250,000 410,000 570,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,600,000 1,900,000 Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady VALUATIONS We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures. 3 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- PRODUCTS & PRICES LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380 Propane usd/pmt Change from last week Butane usd/pmt Change from last week 515.00 -9.90% 542.50 -1.38% 438.55 -7.11% 489.18 -3.50% 530.00 548.00 -11.89% -8.39% 610.00 676.50 0.00% -6.87% 600.00 676.50 0.00% -3.92% 4.40 78.59 475.00 12.05% -2.51% -2.74% usd/mmbtu usd/bbl usd/pmt NWE CIF ARA Small US Mt Belvieu Non-LST NWE Propane Swaps Q1 forward Q2 forward MEG Contract Price Japan CFR NG, Crude & IFO380 NG, NYMEX WTI, Crude - Spot IFO380, Fujairah Various Sources Name Brokers Anders Lalim Martin Engelsen Hals Katie Du Sebastian Isaksen Henrik Konow Verlo Research Knut Stangebye Olsen Operation Håvard Teigland Spyros Bampetas Office Mobile Yahoo Messenger (+47) 2252 7707 (+47) 2252 7783 (+47) 2252 7736 (+47) 2252 7737 (+47) 2252 7755 (+47) 905 30 930 (+47) 909 39 949 (+47) 901 54 760 (+47) 958 00 214 (+47) 924 65 307 la_limno martinengelsenhals katiemin1209 sebastian.isaksen hkverlo (+47) 2252 7703 (+47) 952 48 490 knutstangebyeolsen (+47) 2252 7733 (+30) 2108 9000 62 (+47) 980 43 763 (+30) 6973 38 2273 havardteigland spyrosbampetas Email: Phone: Fax: [email protected] (+47) 2252 77 00 (+47) 2252 78 64 Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45 8th floor, lift E PO Box 2029 Vika, N-0125 Oslo, Norway www.lorstem.com 4