File - Lorentzen & Stemoco AS

Week 50
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Baltic Index
softening as activity slows
Ammonia: Prices easing
Handy: Freight rates remain firm
Coaster: Demand picking
up
“You will not get what
you deserve! You will
get what you
negotiate! ”
arbitrage to take cargoes East
however, so consequently we
expect the available vessels for
January
in
the
Western
hemisphere to find employment
sooner rather than later.
VLGC
The few fixtures concluded East
of Suez have largely been for end
month dates at a discount to the
prevailing Baltic. Many of the
vessels will have quite a lot of
waiting time and the actual
returns will be lower than
indicated by the rate fixed, a sign
of
more
tonnage
length.
However, the earnings impact is
mitigated by the significant drop
in bunker prices. Muted interest
on the product side as well
means that the Index may still not
have reached its bottom.
However, with a thinning list of
vessels available for the balance
of the month, it will not take
much pick up in activity for the
effects to be seen. A 3 year time
charter was reportedly failed on
subjects this week, reasons as of
yet unclear. While there is still
period interest in the market, we
may be approaching a point
where hire rates may soften
slightly as potential takers seem
to be content to hold off in
anticipation of an adjustment as
the spot market is trending lower.
NH3
There has not been any
significant change in the market
sentiment for the Handysize
segment this week. The global
fleet is well employed, demand is
strong and freight remains
robust.
There is an open
Navigator vessel prompt in the US
Gulf and there are a couple
workable vessels going forward
towards January and beginning of
February in the region. However,
with continuous demand and
enquiries heard it can be
expected that these vessels will
find employment before long.
Ammonia prices showed signs of
further weakness, which is in line
with the usual pattern for this
time of year. Weaker Cfr prices in
South Korea and India worked
their way back to the marginal
suppliers in Yuzhny where the
supply situation also appears to
be improving. Recent sales have
been discussed in the US$ 550580 pmt range. The lineup for
December look set total more COASTER
than 290,000 tonnes, up 100,000
tonnes on October and 70,000 Overall, the Coaster market has
been
showing
signs
of
higher than November totals.
improvement for some period of
Seasonal maintenance impacting time now. The strong demand for
industrial buyers in Asia is also butane into Morocco continues
adding to the weaker sentiment. and we see a large amount of
Ammonia prices could come ships being fixed for this trade,
under further pressure short either for loading North West
term as the outlook for demand Europe, US Gulf or in the
appears
weak
despite
of Caribbean. This creates some
continuing supply issues
in more ton miles for the smaller
Trinidad, Algeria, Egypt and ships and we could see an
increase in spot rates going
Indonesia.
towards the end of the year.
West of Suez looks significantly
healthier spot wise, with West
African and Houston cargoes still
reportedly uncovered for the first
month of the new year. There
doesn’t seem to be a supporting
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
HANDY
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
5 YR LOW
5 YR HIGH
1
5 YR AVG
2014 Ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
LPG
LPG prices easing in
Asia, increasing in the
Atlantic
Propane prices in North West
European ended the week higher despite of weaker crude as
there were signs of a more balanced market and focus shifting
to January. Butane is still mirroring naphtha price fluctuations
closely and remains at 89% of
the latter, which has been the
case for quite some time. Petchem demand appears to be
muted with most buyers fully
stocked.
LNG
ExxonMobil has released a report, according to which natural
gas is expected to be the fastest
growing fuel source. Natural gas
demand is expected to grow by
65% by 2040, driven by utilities
and industrial operations. Half of
the increase will come from the
Asia Pacific region including
China. LNG trade is expected to
more than triple from the current volume of around 240 million tonnes per annum.
2
In the Middle Eastern Gulf,
activity remained price structure
not conducive to trade as the
market continued heavily backwardated. Buyers of Fob cargoes
were heard to be asking a discount of more than US$ 160
from December CP. January CP
swaps ended the week at US$
434.
erally sufficient in the region
and current prices are too low
to induce much new activity.
In the US NGLs market prices
ended the week higher even as
the price of WTI tumbled further. EIA reported a draw in
nationwide propane inventories
of 257,000 bl, which was a lower
draw than expected. Prices
The Asian LPG market saw pric- firmed nevertheless.
es easing from last week, although some recovery was evident towards the end of the
week. Inventory levels are gen-
The Nova Scotia LNG project is
making progress as other Canadian LNG projects on the West
Coast are stalling. The Bear
Head LNG project has applied to
the USDA to export pipeline feed
-gas pipelined from the northeast of the US into Canada for
exports as LNG to Europe and
elsewhere. The project is planning to export 8 million tonnes
of LNG initially, increasing to 12
million tonnes. Commercial operations could commence already in late 2018 or early 2019
subject to being granted the
necessary approvals.
According to IEA, the subSaharan region of Africa accounted for close to 30% of global oil and gas discoveries over
the last five years. LNG exports
from the region is expected to
triple by 2040 to over 70 million
tonnes per annum.
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
DORSET
AL WUKIR
YUYO SPIRITS
GAS ORIENTAL
HELENA KOSAN
EPIC BORNEO
GAS MYTH
JS LEKVAR
SIGAS SONJA
CASTEL DELL' OVO
JOAN
LADY HILDE
B GAS ETTRICK
Built
2011
2008
2009
2003
2007
2010
2011
2013
2007
2007
2009
1998
1991
Cbm
82000
80841
77324
35533
7886
7067
5000
5000
4934
3937
3540
3442
3215
Qty
44'
44'
44'
FC
4'5
FC
FC
FC
2'
1'7
1'8
1'6
FC
Cargo
LPG
LPG
LPG
NH3
BUTANE
BUTANE
BUTANE
BUTANE
PROPANE
PROPANE
BUTANE
PROPANE
BUTANE
Load
AG
AG
HOUSTON
AG
HOUSTON
PERNIS
SINES
POINT LISAS
FLUSHING
TEES
FREDERICIA
FLUSHING
BROFJORDEN
Disch
ECI
EAST
EAST
RICHARDS BAY
WAF
MOROCCO
MOROCCO
MOHAMMEDIA
DUNKIRK
LEIXOES/LISBON
OPTS
LISBON
ARA
Laycan
25 DEC
END DEC
19-21 JAN
MID DEC
15-17 DEC
10-12 DEC
14-16 DEC
7-9 DEC
13 DEC
13 DEC
16-18 DEC
11-13 DEC
10-12 DEC
Rate US$
2.25 MILL LS
70
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
Charterer
BPCL
PETREDEC
NAFTOMAR
MUNTAJAT
HETCO
STASCO
LITASCO
PETREDEC
ENI
CSSA
STASCO
ENI
PREEM
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
75.46
1,982,966
65,186
This Week
73.04
1,957,036
64,334
Trend
Softening
Softening
Softening
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
59,172
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
35,339
33,695
52,597
59,172
This Week
(US$/pcm)
230,000
190,000
200,000
250,000
410,000
570,000
1,075,000
1,025,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Softening
Firming
Steady
Steady
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
3
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Crude - Spot
IFO380, Fujairah
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
415.00
-5.78%
463.00
-11.88%
278.58
-13.67%
310.23
-23.23%
395.50
376.00
-7.71%
-9.57%
550.00
464.00
0.00%
-13.79%
570.00
511.00
0.00%
-7.24%
3.66
59.24
370.00
-1.01%
-11.88%
-10.95%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
[email protected]
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
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