HIGHLIGHTS
Transcription
HIGHLIGHTS
Week 41 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Weekly Gas Report HIGHLIGHTS VLGC: Baltic Index bottoms out Ammonia: Prices sidelining in quiet market Handy: Market remains firm Coaster: Downwards pressure still evident “If it doesn’t challenge you, it won’t change you!” VLGC NH3 HANDY As this week draws to a close, we firmly believe that the floor of the Baltic Index has been reached and that the Index will turn around. A fair few vessels have been fixed over the past few days with more out firm. Combine this with the continuing trend of West loaders heading East and it is evident that the balance of the market is easily influenced. With the chance of repeating ourselves, with a fleet of less than 150 trading vessels, a sudden addition to tonne miles as experienced this this fall will have a big market impact. Further, the present downward pressure on LPG prices will stimulate further demand, a situation seen before. The LPG market is price sensitive and lower prices is likely to boost household demand. The quiet market is causing contract requirements to be lowered, as buyers are seen to be cutting operating rates to about 70%. Production issues are also having an impact, and prices which previously picked up on the latter weeks’ more bullish conditions are holding steady at around US$600 fob Middle East and US$630 cfr Far East. In the Black Sea OPZ’s ammonia and urea line is under threat from severely weakened gas supply, but is still operating. The depletion of supply looks set to continue as the Ukrainian government has ruled to cut off local fertilizer producers from any gas supply, but market players are hoping a deal between Ukraine’s Naftogaz and Norway’s Statoil will reverse this ruling. The handy size market has continued in the same fashion as the past weeks with not much activity in the spot market. In the short term we can expect little change in the market, with interest in handy size vessels remaining strong, even with the current high rates demanded by owners. Eletson have an open position end of next week in Morocco, however we have to look into November for the next open owner vessel. As a result the handy size market remains firm with freight rates stable. It is uncertain where the LPG will go in the future, but we are fairly certain that a new trading pattern is about to materialize. There is plenty of LPG, there is demand for all of it; at a price. We are indeed living in a changing world and history should have taught us that new trades, changing arbitrage and trade opportunities often lead to inefficiency in shipping. Far East supply might see a boost following the restart of Yara’s Pilbara plant in Australia. The company is reported to have a number of contract deliveries to the Far East throughout October. Demand in the Far East is however showing signs of softening with buyers having secured cargo already. The coaster markets are still experiencing downward pressure on freight rates. We are seeing numerous spot fixtures being concluded at Time Charter Equivalents way below 1 year rates for nearly all sizes, but especially on the 3500-5000m3 pressurized ships. As a result we believe Charterers will have a strong appetite for relying on the spot market, and will not show interest in fixing ships on period basis before Time Charter rates have further decreased. VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE) US$/month 4,000,000 3,700,000 3,400,000 3,100,000 2,800,000 2,500,000 2,200,000 1,900,000 1,600,000 1,300,000 1,000,000 700,000 400,000 100,000 -200,000 1 -500,000 COASTER 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 5 YR LOW 1 5 YR HIGH 5 YR AVG 2014 Ytd Week no -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- LPG LPG prices shredding US$ 40-50 in all region on tumbling crude Prices in the North West European market stumbled under pressure from sharp crude and naphtha falls. Brent bled ended the week around US$ 89 bl. Propane and butane ended the week down US$50 and 45 respectively on the bearish sentiment. The arbitrage from the US declined to under US$ 45. Petchem producers were still looking to resell LPG with naphtha the preferred feedstock. Butane declined to 85% of naphtha on the news that a large ethylene cracker will be shut down for the rest of the year. In the Middle Eastern Gulf, activity was dismal in a market flush with Fob cargoes, but with few buyers. Spot discounts to October CP widened sharply. November CP swaps ended the week at US$ 718. Asian household sector. The situation is very different in the petchem sector where the price of LPG now is at near parity with naphtha instead of the 10% or so discount necessary to spur petchem sector buying. The Asian LPG market saw price plunging as traders returned from holiday. Storage levels were reported to be high in Japan. As prices dived Chinese buyers were looking to secure lower priced produce as domestic prices moved higher. The sharp price falls will be a bon for the household sector as demand is impacted by absolute prices. Low LPG prices could trigger a surge in demand in the large US propane prices succumbed to sharp crude falls and LST propane fell below 100 cent per gallon. A further strong build in propane inventories also played its part as the EIA reported a larger than expected inventory build of 1.085 ml bl to 80.645 ml bl. Lower crop drying demand is expected to have contributed to the stock build. LNG SCF (Sovcomflot) has sold SCF Arctic, a 1969 built LNG carrier for scrap. The 71,500cbm ships with a scrap weight of 19,165 fetched US$ 565 per ldt or US$ 10.8 million basis as is Gibraltar. The price refects a high content of nickel and stainless steel. 2 Japanese LNG imort prices for spot cargoes averaged US$ 11.30 per MMBtu, down from 12.50 in August. Long term cargo contract prices are declining as the price is linked to the Japanese Crude Cocktail. Total is looking to advance its Papua New Guinea LNG export project based on onshore feedgas. The project under planning comprises of a 700km pipeline connecting the onshore production facilities with a 6.9mtpa LNG plant with export infrastructure. -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- FIXTURES SPOT Vessel PROMISE CAPTAIN NICHOLAS ML THETIS GLORY MORSTON HELLAS SERENITY NORDIC GAS SIGAS SONJA B GAS COMMANDER TBN UNIGAS Built 2009 2008 2008 2013 2008 1994 2007 1996 NA Cbm 84718 82000 81992 81000 80791 20700 4934 1970 NA Qty 44' 44' 44' 45' 44' FC 2'5 FC 3'7 Cargo LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG PROPANE LPG PROPANE Load BETHIOUA AG AG HOUSTON BETHIOUA MARCUS HOOK TEES GRANGEMOUTH GRANGEMOUTH Disch EAST EAST EAST OPTS EAST OPTS DUNKIRK TEES ARA Laycan END OCT 20-25 OCT 19-20 OCT 3-4 NOV 1H NOV ELY NOV 10-12 OCT 07-09 OCT 12-14 OCT Rate US$ 150 BSS CHIBA ABT 92 92 85 BSS FLUSHING 150 BSS CHIBA RNR RNR RNR RNR Charterer SHELL SHELL TOTAL PETROBRAS TOTAL SHV CONOCO PETROINEOS ENI RATES The Baltic Exchange LPG Index 44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba Weekly Baltic average Baltic TC Equivalent (US$/pmt) (US$/pcm) (US$/pd) Last Week 99.65 2,604,048 85,603 This Week 94.68 2,471,850 81,257 Trend Softening Softening Softening 12 months Time Charter - Indicators 3.200 cbm S/R 3.500 cbm P/R - East 3.500 cbm P/R - West 5.000 cbm P/R 6.500 cbm S/R 10.000 cbm ETH 20.000 cbm S/R 35.000 cbm 60.000 cbm 82.000 cbm Last Week (US$/pd) 7,890 6,903 7,232 9,369 13,642 19,395 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pd) 7,890 6,739 7,068 9,204 13,478 19,066 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pcm) 240,000 205,000 215,000 280,000 410,000 580,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,600,000 1,900,000 Trend Steady Softening Softening Softening Softening Softening Steady Steady Steady Steady VALUATIONS We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures. 3 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- PRODUCTS & PRICES LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380 NWE CIF ARA Small US Mt Belvieu Non-LST NWE Propane Swaps Q1 forward Q2 forward MEG Contract Price Japan CFR NG, Crude & IFO380 NG, NYMEX WTI, Crude - Spot IFO380, Fujairah Propane usd/pmt Change from last week Butane usd/pmt Change from last week 604.00 -9.60% 645.00 -8.53% 509.89 -7.45% 536.66 -3.47% 635.00 633.00 -9.45% -7.90% 735.00 783.00 0.00% -4.98% 765.00 803.00 0.00% -4.86% 3.85 84.41 538.00 -3.69% -8.36% -5.39% usd/mmbtu usd/bbl usd/pmt Various Sources Name Brokers Anders Lalim Martin Engelsen Hals Katie Du Sebastian Isaksen Henrik Konow Verlo Research Knut Stangebye Olsen Operation Håvard Teigland Spyros Bampetas Office Mobile Yahoo Messenger (+47) 2252 7707 (+47) 2252 7783 (+47) 2252 7736 (+47) 2252 7737 (+47) 2252 7755 (+47) 905 30 930 (+47) 909 39 949 (+47) 901 54 760 (+47) 958 00 214 (+47) 924 65 307 la_limno martinengelsenhals katiemin1209 sebastian.isaksen hkverlo (+47) 2252 7703 (+47) 952 48 490 knutstangebyeolsen (+47) 2252 7733 (+30) 2108 9000 62 (+47) 980 43 763 (+30) 6973 38 2273 havardteigland spyrosbampetas Email: Phone: Fax: [email protected] (+47) 2252 77 00 (+47) 2252 78 64 Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45 8th floor, lift E PO Box 2029 Vika, N-0125 Oslo, Norway www.lorstem.com 4