Publikationstyp  Date - Macro Research

Macro Research
9. januar 2015
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 Dagens altoverskyggende begivenhed bliver nok arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for december fra USA, som tegner til at blive endnu en god en af slagsen, men dog ikke ligeså god som i november, hvor beskæftigelsen steg
med hele 321.000. Underindekset for beskæftigelsen i de to ISM-indeks er
begge kun faldet en smule i forhold til november, og de ugentlige antal nytilmeldte ledige har udviklet sig ganske fornuftigt. ADP-indikatoren for den
private den af beskæftigelsen gik frem i forhold til november, men ADP
havde på den anden side slet ikke forudset den store fremgang i den faktiske beskæftigelse i november (se figur). Vi og konsensus venter en beskæftigelsesfremgang på henholdsvis 250.000 og 240.000. Ledighedsgraden er nok faldet endnu en måned til 5,7%, og nok så interessant bliver
det, om timelønnen kan fastholde den højere vækstrate (0,4% m/m), vi så
i november.
 Fra Tyskland kommer industriproduktionen for november, hvor der
ventes endnu en beskeden fremgang, hvilket er i overensstemmelse med
den seneste stabilisering i PMI-fremstillingsindekset. Risikoen er på nedsiden efter gårsdagens svage fabriksordreindgang.
 Danmarks Statistik kommer også med industriproduktionstal. Industrisektoren har siden foråret oplevet et massivt negativ omslag, indikeret af
industriens konjunkturbarometer, der er faldet til niveauer ikke set siden
krisen i 2008/2009. En fortsat lidt skuffende indenlandsk efterspørgsel
kombineret med afmatningen i især euroområdet ser således ud til at veje
på produktionen herhjemme. Virksomhederne vurderer at deres lagre er
for store, som i kombination med en meget negativ udvikling i ordrebøgerne ikke er en god cocktail for industriproduktionen. Vi venter på den baggrund et fald i industriproduktionen i omegnen af 3,0% m/m i november.
Baseret på de ledende indikatorer ventes produktionen at have pilen yderligere nedad de kommende måneder, og vil derfor fortsat trække ned i den
samlede økonomiske aktivitet. Herudover får vi også tal for udenrigshandlen, hvor vi venter et fald i eksporten i november i omegnen af 1,5%.
Det er dog primært brændselskomponenten der ventes at trække ned efter
en kraftig stigning måneden før. Overordnet ser vi imidlertid ikke grobund
for at vente et stærkere eksportopsving, idet væksten på flere af vores
eksportmarkeder stadig er noget haltende. Modsat ventes importen at være steget lidt. Det vil medvirke til et fald i overskuddet på handelsbalancen
fra 7,1 mia. kr. til ca. 6 mia. kr. i november. Overskuddet på betalingsbalancen ventes også at være faldet lidt fra 13,2 mia. kr. til 11,9 mia. kr. i november.
 Også Sverige og Storbritannien offentliggør industriproduktionstal i
dag, og Norge offentliggør inflationstal.
USA: ADP forudså ikke stærk beskæftigelsesfremgang i sidste måned
Kilde: Macrobond
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: Aktiemarkederne rettede sig markant i går efter store fald





først på ugen. Brent-olieprisen er kravlet tilbage op over 50 USD pr. tønde.
Renterne er steget. EUR/USD nogenlunde fladt men JPY stærkere over
for USD her til morgen.
Kina: Inflationen steg til 1,5% y/y i december fra 1,4% i november. Det var
på linje med konsensusestimatet. Udsving i det kinesiske forbrugerprisindeks er især drevet af fødevarepriserne og i mindre grad energipriserne,
og det forklarer, hvorfor inflationen steg lidt trods de globale olieprisfald.
USA: Antallet af nytilmedlte ledige for sidste uge faldt lidt til 294.000. Det
påvirker ikke morgendagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport, som jo vedrører december måned.
Euroområdet: EU-Kommissionens konjunkturbarometer, ESI, var 100,7 i
december, uændret i forhold til det nedreviderede novembertal. Der var
ventet en stigning i ESI, og det er da også lidt skuffende at tilliden ikke
stieg trods lavere oliepris og svagere EUR. Til gengæld var der gode nyheder fra detailomsætningen, som med 0,6% m/m steg mere end ventet i
november (konsensus 0,4 % m/m) og mere end i oktober (0,2% m/m).
Tyskland: Fabriksordreindgangen faldt med 2,4% m/m i november, hvilket
var et større fald end ventet. Oktobers i forvejen store stigning blev dog
oprevideret. Novemberfaldet er dårligt nyt forud for dagens industriproduktionstal (se figur).
Storbritannien: Rentemødet i Bank of England bød som ventet ikke på
nyheder. Både renten og størrelsen på opkøbsprogrammet var uændret.
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Tyskland: Svage industriordrer i november
Kilde: Macrobond
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. januar 2015
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
OMXC20 CAP (+1,32% / indeks 804,75)
endte gårsdagens handel i positivt territorium
på linje med de øvrige europæiske aktieindeks. Den positive stemning var især drevet
af investorernes forventning om at den europæiske centralbank snart vil lempe pengepolitikken på grund af den lave inflation i eurozonen. I bunden af indekset endte Pandora (4,20% / kurs 472,50) efter smykkekæden
Signet, som er Pandoras største forhandler i
USA, gav en salgsopdatering for julesalget.
Signet meddelte at julesalget af charms,
hvorfra Pandora henter størstedelen af omsætningen, har været til den svage side. I den
anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet
William Demant (+2,36% / kurs 472,50) efter
Citigroup satte aktien på sin anbefalingsliste
Key Buy Europe. Dagens kursmæssige vinder
blev A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,75% / kurs
12.450,00) dog uden selskabsspecifikke
nyheder. Uden for det ledende danske C20
indeks var Matas (-1,44% / kurs 137,00) i
fokus efter selskabet gav en salgsopdatering
for 3. kvartal der ikke bød på meget overraskende nyt. Matas meddelte dog at julehandlen har været mere træg end ventet.
Obligationsrenterne steg for en gangs skyld i
går i takt med at aktiemarkedet bød på stigninger efter store flad først på ugen.
EUR svækkedes lidt i går over for USD, men
er styrket marginalt her til morgen. Styrkelsen
over for USD her til morgen kan muligvis
hænge sammen med, at Fed’s Kocherlakota i
en tale i nat dansk tid advarede mod at Fed
hæver renten for tidligt.
Fra euroområdet var nøgletallene blandede.
EU-Kommissionens ESI konjunkturbaramoter
for december skuffede ved at være uændret i
forhold til november måned selvom euroområdets økonomi burde få støtte fra den svagere EUR og den lavere oliepris. Til gengæld
steg detailomsætningen i november mere end
ventet.
De amerikanske statsrenter blev nok også
primært drevet op af fremgang på aktiemarkederne og måske på forventning om en
relativ stærk arbejdsmarkedsrapport i dag.
JPY svækkedes i går over for USD, men er
styrket her til morgen i den asiatiske handel.
NOK havde for en gangs skyld en god dag i
går og styrkedes over for EUR. Det hang nok
sammen med, at olieprisen stabiliseredes og
endda steg lidt.
Den finansielle uro i Grækenland frem mod
parlamentsvalget fortsætter. Renten på den
10-årige græske statsobligation steg over
10% i forgårs, men faldt dog tilbage igen til
lige under 10% i går.
.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
OMXC20CAP
804,8
1,32
USD/JPY
119,4
-0,490
USA
2,01
0,03
CRB
Stoxx600
342,4
2,75
EUR/USD
1,181
-0,001
Euroområdet
0,51
0,03
Brent oil (1M fut)
FTSE
6570,0
2,34
USD/DKK
6,301
0,006
Danmark
0,54
0,06
Gold (spot)
S&P500
2062,1
1,79
CHF/DKK
6,194
0,000
Nasdaq
4736,2
1,84
GBP/DKK
9,510
0,013
Hang Seng
24081,8
1,03
SEK/DKK
0,786
-0,003
Nikkei
17191,3
0,14
NOK/DKK
0,827
0,009
%-Ændring
225,9
0,37
51,2
-0,56
1211,2
0,15
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr.
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
0,125
0,05
0,50
0,20
0,00
1,25
0,125
0,05
0,50
0,20
0,00
1,25
0,500
0,05
0,75
0,20
0,00
1,25
+12 mdr.
1,250
0,05
1,00
0,20
0,25
1,25
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr. +12 mdr.
2,01
0,51
1,65
0,76
0,86
1,46
2,40
0,80
2,25
0,80
1,20
2,00
2,40
0,90
2,50
1,00
1,40
2,25
2,50
1,00
3,00
1,10
1,60
2,50
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1,181
119,4
6,301
7,440
0,7858
0,8272
Valuta
+3 mdr.
1,22
117,0
6,11
7,45
0,797
0,876
+6 mdr.
1,16
130,0
6,42
7,45
0,828
0,876
+12 mdr.
1,10
140,0
6,77
7,45
0,856
0,876
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. januar 2015
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
D ato
Selskab
R egnskab
Ingen væsentlige regnskaber
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
05-01-15
05-01-15
05-01-15
05-01-15
05-01-15
05-01-15
05-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
06-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
07-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
08-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
09-01-15
Tid
02:35
10:30
14:00
15:45
16:00
16:00
02:45
09:00
09:00
09:00
10:00
10:30
15:45
16:00
16:00
08:00
09:00
11:00
11:00
11:00
13:00
14:15
14:30
20:00
00:30
08:00
11:00
11:00
11:00
13:00
13:00
13:30
14:30
14:30
15:45
02:00
08:00
09:00
09:00
09:00
09:15
09:30
10:00
10:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
Land
Japan
EMU
Tyskland
USA
Danmark
Danmark
USA
Kina
Norge
Danmark
Danmark
EMU
UK
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
Schweiz
EMU
EMU
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
EMU
EMU
EMU
UK
UK
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
Danmark
Danmark
Danmark
Schweiz
Sverige
Norge
UK
USA
USA
USA
Indikator
Periode
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
Dec F
Sentix Investor Confidence
Jan
CPI MoM/YoY
Dec P
ISM New York
Dec
Foreign Reserves
Dec
Change in Currency Reserves
Dec
Domestic vehicle sales
Dec
HSBC China Services PMI
Dec
Manufacturing PMI
Dec
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
Nov
Industriens konjunkturbarometer
Dec
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Dec F
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
Dec
Markit US Composite PMI
Dec F
Factory Orders
Nov
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Dec
Retail Sales MoM/YoY
Nov
Foreign Currency Reserves
Dec
Unemployment Rate
Nov
CPI Estimate YoY
Dec
CPI Core YoY
Dec A
MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Change
Dec
Trade Balance
Nov
Fed Releases Minutes from Its Dec. 16-17 FOMC Meeting
Fed's Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy in Chicago
Factory Orders MoM/WDA YoY
Nov
PPI MoM/YoY
Nov
Retail Sales MoM/YoY
Nov
Economic Confidence
Dec
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Jan
Bank of England Bank Rate
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Dec
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in Minneapolis
Industrial Production SA MoM/YoY
Nov
Industrial Production MoM
Nov
Trade Balance ex Ships
Nov
Current Account Balance
Nov
CPI MoM/YoY
Dec
Industrial Production MoM/YoY
Nov
CPI-ATE MoM/YoY
Dec
Industrial Production MoM/YoY
Nov
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Dec
Unemployment Rate
Dec
Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY
Dec
Survey
--1
0.1%/0.3%
---13,7M
-50,5
5,0%
-51,7
57,4
-0,4%
58
0.2%/0.6%
472.0B
11,5%
-0,1%
0,7%
-226K
-$42.0B
SHB
-----------10
-------11,5%
0,0%
0,7%
----
Forrige
52,1
-2,5
0.00%/0.6%
62,4
445,5
2.2B
13,78M
53
51,3
5,0%
-15
51,7
57,6
53,8
-0,7%
59,3
1.9%/1.7%
462.7B(r)
11,5%
0,3%
0,7%
0,9%
227K(r)
-$42.2B(r)
Faktisk
52,0
0,9
0.0%/0.2%
70,8
446,8
1,3B
13,46M
53,4
49,8
5,0%
-19
51,4
55,2%
53,5
-0,7%
56,2
1.0%/-0.8%
495.1B
11,5%
-0,2%
0,8%
11,1%
241K
-$39.0B
-0.8%/1%
-0.2%/-1.4%
0.2%/0.2%
101,2
375B
0,5%
-290K
---
---101,5
375B
0,5%
-----
2.5%/2.4%
-0.4%/-1.3%
0.4%/1.4%
100,8
375B
0,5%
-21%
298K
2353K
42,7
-2.4%/0.4%
-0.3%/-0.6%
0.6%/1.5%
100,7
375B
0,5%
6.6%
294K
2452K
43,6
0.2%/-0.6%
----0.4%/-0.2%
0.5%/-3.7%
0.0%/2.5%
0.2%/1.7%
243K
5,7%
0.2%/2.2%
-----1.3%/-3.7%
0.1%/2.5%
-250K
5,7%
--
0.2%/0.8%
2,8%
7.1B
13.2B
0.0%/-0.1%
0.2%/0.1%
0.1%/2.4%
-0.1%/1.1%
321K
5,8%
0.4%/2.1%
Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected])
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gæld er pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gen gengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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