EmergingMarkets Report - januar 2015

Januar 2015
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Globalni pregled
Delniški trgi
Delnice razvijajočih se
trgov (EM) skupno leta
2014 ponovno šibkejše
kot delnice na razvitih
trgih
Zdravstvo in oskrba sta
se odrezala občutno bolje
kot panoge, ki so
občutljivejše na
konjunkturo
Padec cen nafte dodatno
razdvaja EM na
zmagovalce in poražence
Tudi v letu 2014 so delniški trgi držav na pragu razvitosti v celoti zaostali za razvitimi trgi (-2 %
naproti 5 %, v ameriških dolarjih). Razlika je sicer bila s 7 % občutno manjša kot leta 2013. Toda
ponovno so bili pri tem razvijajoči se trgi (EM) zelo heterogeni. Močnim porastom z občutnimi 20
odstotki na eni strani (Egipt, Indonezija, Indija, Filipini, vse v ameriških dolarjih) so bili nasproti
močni padci na drugi strani (Rusija, Grčija, Madžarska). Podjetja s področja IT in defenzivnih
panog, kot sta zdravstvo in oskrba, so bila najmočnejša in so močno prednjačila pred cikličnimi
panogami, ki so občutljivejša glede konjunkture. Šibkemu prvemu četrtletju (bojazni pred t.i.
„tapering“) je sledilo jasno izboljšanje, ki pa se je nazadnje septembra umaknilo ponovnemu
šibkejšemu razvoju (padec cen nafte, kriza rublja). S saldom je leta 2014 na globalni ravni iz
delniških skladov EM odteklo okoli 25. mrd. ameriških dolarjev.
Temu je treba prišteti še dejavnike, ki so relevantni na nacionalni ravni. Rusija in Vzhodna
Evropa sta spomladi trpeli še zaradi zaostritve državljanske vojne v Ukrajini, ter vzporedno zaradi
vedno strožjih sankcij in političnih ukrepov Zahoda do Rusije (ZDA/NATO/EU). Indiji, Indoneziji in
Turčiji so bili v prid razvojni trendi na notranje politični ravni, kar so trgi sprejeli pozitivno. V
zadnjem četrtletju pa je padec cen nafte dodatno in še močneje razdelil države na pragu
razvitosti na zmagovalce in poražence. Splošno so finančni trgi uvoznikov nafte in industrijskih
kovin bili v boljšem položaju (zlasti v Aziji), medtem ko so se finančni trgi izvoznikov znašli pod
dodatnim pritiskom (Rusija, Latinska Amerika, Bližnji in Srednji vzhod). Vzporedno smo bili od
septembra naprej priča vedno večji slabitvi valut in obveznic mnogih razvijajočih se trgov.
Obveznice in valute
Valute držav na pragu
razvitosti tendenčno pod
pritiskom spričo še naprej
močnega ameriškega
dolarja
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Glede obvezniških trgov v državah EM je bilo moč na ravni letne primerjave zabeležiti razpone
donosov v primerjavi z ameriškimi državnimi obveznicami. Podobno kot pri delnicah so tudi ta
razvoj zaznamovale občutne razlike med posameznimi državami. Medtem ko so se razponi
denimo za Ukrajino, Venezuelo in Rusijo občutno zvišali, pa so nasprotno občutno padli za
države, kot sta Indija ali Turčija. Pri valutah se je rubelj v določenih fazah znašel v prostem padcu
in je leto zaključil z minusom 40 % v primerjavi z ameriškim dolarjem, sicer pa so šibkejšo
podobo kazale tudi druge valute razvijajočih se trgov. Kljub temu so državne obveznice EM v
trdih valutah v letu 2014 skupno dosegle zavidljiv donos okoli 7,5 % (v am. dolarjih), nasproti 3,6
% za ustrezne podjetniške obveznice EM, z bonitetno oceno netvegane stopnje. Pri obveznicah v
lokalnih valutah so nasprotno beležili minus skoraj 6 odstotkov. Azija je pri tem dosegla jasen
plus (+5 %), medtem ko sta bili Latinska Amerika (-4 %) ter Srednja in Vzhodna Evropa (-11 %)
na strani poražencev. Zelo heterogeno so se razvijale tudi stopnje inflacije in konjunktura.
Medtem ko je večina razvijajočih se trgov beležila padec stopenj inflacije, so slednje v nekaterih
državah ostale zelo visoko (Brazilija, Rusija, Južna Afrika, Turčija, Indija, Indonezija).
Januar 2015
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Globalni obeti
Delniški trgi
Še naprej heterogen
gospodarski razvoj –
toda hkrati močnejša
usklajenost razvoja
finančnih trgov v državah
na pragu razvitosti?
Privlačnejši trgi še naprej
občutljivejši – sicer v
osnovi močni, toda zato
zelo dragi
Osnovna raznolikost med narodnimi gospodarstvo posameznih držav in regij na razvijajočih se
trgih se bo leta 2015 nadaljevala. Zanimivo z vidika vlagateljev pa se utegne za določen čas
pojaviti prav nasprotni scenarij, namreč močnejša usklajenost v razvoju delniških trgov v državah
razvijajočih se trgov. Tako so se korelacije med delniški trgi posameznih držav na pragu
razvitosti v preteklih mesecih že močno povečale. Hkrati ugotavljamo, da so se delnice v državah
na pragu razvitosti in panogah, ki imajo sicer v osnovi dobre obete in so močne, že močno
podražile. Nasprotno pa so sicer močneje povezani trgi primerjalno dobili privlačnejše ocene.
Toda hkrati ostajajo z gospodarskega vidika še naprej posebej občutljivi. Zato se spričo
slednjega za leto 2015 postavlja naslednje vprašanje: Se bo splošni trend na delniških trgih EM
obrnil navzgor ali navzdol?
Jasne tendence razvoja glede slednjega v tem trenutku še ne moremo prepoznati. Z vidika
ocene posameznih podjetij bi lahko trenutno pričakovali nekaj več pozitivnejših impulzov, zlasti
relativno glede na razvite trge in posebej glede trgov v ZDA, ki so že zdaj dokaj dragi. Z
makroekonomskega vidika pa kažejo razvoj kreditov, dinamika dobičkov, obeti glede
konjunkture in cikli vlaganj na nadaljnje zbiranje nevihtnih oblakov v večini držav na pragu
razvitosti, zato gre vsaj kratkoročno pričakovati padec oziroma nazadovanje razvoja delniških
trgov EM (in/ali valut).
Obveznice in valute
Pri podjetniških
obveznicah EM v letu
2015 lahko ponovno
pričakujemo številne
nove izdaje
Ciljna izbira držav ostaja
pomembna
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Tudi na področju obveznic slika ni povsem jasna. Ponudba novo izdanih državnih obveznic bo
sicer verjetno manjša kot lani, kar pomeni, da bo tudi preglednejša. Na drugi strani pa lahko pri
podjetniških obveznicah pričakujemo bistveno večji obseg novih izdaj – skoraj sedemkratnik v
primerjavi z državnimi obveznicami, pri čemer bodo v ospredju najverjetneje zlasti azijska
podjetja.
Donosi na trgu EM ostajajo v primerjavi z industrijskimi državami še naprej prav privlačni. Ker
lahko za prvi dve četrtletji 2015 pričakujemo močnejši ameriški dolar, bi lahko bilo slednje v prid
razvoju obveznic v trdih valutah razvijajočih se trgov, medtem ko si lahko obveznice,
denominirane v lokalnih valutah, primerljivo obetajo le manjši donos. Potem ko so tuja sredstva
leta 2014 s pribl. 14 mrd. ameriških dolarjev predstavljala le tretjino dolgoletnega povprečja,
mnogi analitiki za leto 2015 pričakujejo ponovno nekoliko močnejši, še vedno pa podpovprečen,
dotok kapitala iz tujine. Nikakor pa ne smemo podcenjevati možnih negativnih vplivov
morebitnega dotekanja sredstev iz naslova obveznic EM, do česar bi lahko prišlo, če bi ameriška
centralna banka v teku leta dejansko zvišala vodilne obrestne mere.
Toda če pustimo ob strani ta globalna razmišljanja, se tako enim kot drugim tudi leta 2015
obetajo dobre priložnosti za donos v posameznih državah pri obveznicah v lokalnih valutah, in
sicer zlasti tam, kjer imajo centralne banke na voljo večji manevrski prostor za zniževanje obresti.
Januar 2015
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Countries and regions
Asian EM countries
continue to have the best
economic prospects
Economic performance
by China remains the
Achilles’ heel of the Asian
markets
Chinese mainland stocks
see spectacular gains in
2014
India: Plenty of
confidence up-front, now
it’s time for action
European EM equities:
Slack EU economy and
geopolitical tensions
weigh on prices and
investor sentiment
Positive performance for
the Turkish equity market
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Asia
Among the emerging markets, however, this region probably still has the best economic
prospects. Many of the countries will also profit from the sharp decline in prices for oil and other
commodities. Nevertheless, there is no reason to get overly excited, because on the one hand
the stock valuations are generally above average in this region. On the other hand, most of the
Asian markets are also very vulnerable in the event that growth in China slows down significantly.
Naturally, it is impossible to foresee whether and to what degree this will be the case. The fact is,
however, that China has opted to slow down lending growth substantially. Of course, viewed
against the backdrop of the extremely strong expansion in lending during the last decade, this
process is just now getting started. Additionally, a downturn in the lending cycle can also be
expected in some other EM countries (albeit not to the degree seen in China), and this will
consequently put the brakes on economic performance as well (e.g. in Russia, Turkey, Brazil,
India, Indonesia). It remains to be seen whether and how well the Chinese economy will be able
to navigate these changes without any major disruption.
Chinese A-shares traded on the mainland market enjoyed an impressive rally in recent
months. As a result, their previous valuation discount compared to H-shares listed in Hong Kong
(which can also be traded by non-resident investors) has turned into a valuation premium. The
spectacular increase in share prices, however, is starting to show strongly speculative aspects
now. One reflection of this was the recent slump in prices after some of the largest brokers were
no longer allowed to open customer accounts for loan-financed purchases of equities. Of
course, this attempt by the authorities to counter the development of a speculative bubble at an
early stage does not necessarily mean that the rally for stocks is now over and done. Indeed,
more significant gains may still be possible when one looks at the valuations and similar sets of
circumstances in the past.
On the Indian market, many analysts are also expecting to see more strong performance by
equities, despite the fact that the two previous years were already very robust. From a long-term
perspective, we also take a positive view on Indian equities. Over the short to medium term,
however, caution is the order of the day. Because a great deal of positive expectations has
already been priced in, and this will now have to be backed up by actual developments.
Europe
In 2014, Central and Eastern European emerging markets suffered both from the slack pace
of economic activity in the EU and from the Ukraine crisis and related escalation of the conflict
between Russia and the West. Towards the end of the year, the collapse in the oil price resulted
in extreme pressure on the rouble in particular. While the Russian stock market only posted a
modest loss in local currency terms, foreign investors took a beating (-47% in USD, roughly -36%
in EUR). Greece suffered from the prolonged economic misery and another flare-up of political
uncertainty. Along with Russia, the Greek stock market was one of the weakest (roughly -30%). A
positive exception in the region was Turkey, where the equity market posted a strong doubledigit gain. Looking at the CE3 (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary), the strongest
performance was booked by Poland, where the stock market remained practically unchanged (in
Januar 2015
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
emreport
Eastern Europe’s longterm prospects are still
intact, but negative
factors still dominate the
short to medium term
Sharp recession and a
longer period of
economic doldrums look
unavoidable in Russia –
Can this function as a
possible catalyst for the
badly needed structural
reforms?
Stock valuations look
attractive, but the
massive potential can
probably only be tapped
over the long term
Few good prospects in
the region – Brazil faces
significant economic
challenges in 2015 as
well
LCY terms). While the performance of stocks and currencies was marginal to negative, the bond
markets did very well (with the exceptions of Russia and Ukraine).
Despite some attractive valuations, many investors may maintain their wait-and-see attitude
on this region, as long as there is no lasting de-escalation of the confrontation between Russia
and the West. Along with the negative economic impacts of the sanctions, this poor investor
sentiment is an additional factor which is detrimental for the stock markets in this region. Barring
a sustained economic upturn in the Eurozone, stronger economic performance in Central and
Eastern Europe is hard to imagine. This is particularly the case since further declines in exports
to Russia can be anticipated, due to the sanctions, the slump in oil prices and recession in the
Russian economy.
Falling oil prices, the collapse of the rouble and Western sanctions will weigh heavily on the
Russian economy for the foreseeable future. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent
Moscow will be able to mitigate some of this by intensifying its economic and financial
cooperation with other countries (India, Brazil, former Soviet republics). Over the long run,
however, in a positive scenario the current situation may lead to structural reforms in the Russian
economy, albeit these would only bear fruit after a few years. Development of production
capacities to replace the imports from the past and deepening financial cooperation in the
BRICS countries will likely be high on Moscow’s list of priorities, because it does not look like the
Western sanctions will be loosened or lifted any time soon, and from the current perspective it is
also unlikely that there will be any rapid recovery in the price of oil. In 2016 and thereafter it is
possible that the oil price will be significantly higher again. In the meantime, Russia will have to
endure some very hard times, although the country is far better prepared to deal with this now
than it was 10 years ago. On the other hand, Russia’s financial markets have already priced in a
great deal of this misery. Still, despite the fact that some valuations are looking quite attractive,
significant downside risks remain (e.g. further weakening of the rouble, rating downgrades,
sustained capital flight, tightening of sanctions). Bearing this in mind, Russia investors will have
to have plenty of patience and calm nerves.
Latin America
Stock markets in Latin America did far worse than the EM average (around 10% worse in
USD). With the exception of Peru, negative performances were seen almost everywhere. Share
prices in Brazil plunged recently, despite a temporary speculative rally on the stock market in the
run-up to the presidential election. Along with the disappointed political hopes, the stock market
was dragged down by the declining oil price, slack economic performance and high inflation.
Brazil’s economy will continue to face major challenges in 2015 as well, in the form of inflation,
low commodity prices and negative lending growth. It remains to be see whether and to what
extent Brazil’s president who was re-elected by a narrow margin in October can steer the
country’s economy in a radically new direction.
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Published and prepared by: Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.H., Schwarzenbergplatz 3, 1010 Vienna
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