Sanix Incorporated (4651)
Transcription
Sanix Incorporated (4651)
SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Sanix Incorporated (4651) Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at [email protected] or find us on Bloomberg. Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Contents Recent Updates ....................................................................................................... 4 Highlights ............................................................................................................ 4 Trends & Outlook ................................................................................................. 5 Business ............................................................................................................... 16 Description ........................................................................................................ 16 Market and Value Chain ...................................................................................... 32 Strategy ............................................................................................................ 36 Historical Performance ........................................................................................ 37 Income Statement ............................................................................................. 38 Balance Sheet .................................................................................................... 42 Cash Flow Statement .......................................................................................... 44 Other Information ................................................................................................. 45 History .............................................................................................................. 45 News & Topics ................................................................................................... 46 Top Management ............................................................................................... 47 Major Shareholders ............................................................................................ 48 Company Profile................................................................................................. 49 http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 2/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Income Statement (million yen) Total Sales YoY Gross Profit FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Est. 25,234 24,539 28,980 31,454 43,366 84,500 -4.8% -2.8% 18.1% 8.5% 37.9% 94.9% 10,559 9,918 10,276 10,442 13,370 YoY -9.8% -6.1% 3.6% 1.6% 28.0% GPM 41.8% 40.4% 35.5% 33.2% 30.8% -597 390 502 410 1,870 6,300 - - 28.6% -18.3% 356.4% 236.8% - 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 4.3% 7.5% -620 225 430 348 1,789 6,000 235.4% Operating Profit YoY OPM Recurring Profit YoY - - 91.2% -19.1% 414.1% RPM - 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 4.1% 7.1% -4,145 -3,676 50 14 1,575 3,600 Net Income YoY - - - - -15.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 48,919 48,919 48,919 48,919 48,919 -86.9 -77.1 1.0 0.3 33.0 EPS (Fully Diluted) - - - - - Dividend Per Share - - - - - 224.3 147.2 148.2 149.0 184.6 Net Margin -71.8% - 128.6% 4.3% Per Share Data Number of Shares (thousands) EPS Book Value Per Share 75.4 - Balance Sheet (million yen) Cash and Equivalents Total Current Assets Tangible Fixed Assets, net Other Fixed Assets Intangible Assets 1,065 1,255 1,138 1,366 3,559 3,895 5,153 5,890 6,964 14,652 15,328 11,828 11,763 11,724 12,326 1,570 1,991 1,843 1,802 1,533 77 1,023 910 796 685 20,869 19,996 20,407 21,286 29,196 Accounts Payable 530 1,159 868 1,386 5,460 Short Term Debt 5,316 5,345 2,425 2,325 3,338 8,536 9,342 6,961 8,381 14,873 Total Assets Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt 16 1,726 4,319 3,560 2,820 1,603 3,599 6,343 5,770 5,486 Total Liabilities 10,139 12,941 13,304 14,151 20,359 Net Assets 10,730 7,055 7,103 7,135 8,837 5,351 7,380 7,505 6,714 7,056 Total Fixed Liabilities Interest Bearing Debt Cash Flow Statement (million yen) Operating Cash Flow -89 563 55 1,260 2,185 Investment Cash Flow 815 -2,304 -214 -151 -222 -696 1,946 43 -882 230 ROA - - 0.2% 0.1% 6.2% ROE - - 0.7% 0.2% 19.8% 51.3% 35.1% 34.7% 33.4% 30.2% Financing Cash Flow Financial Ratios Equity Ratio Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 3/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Recent Updates Highlights On March 10, 2014, Sanix Incorporated announced monthly sales data for February 2014; please see the monthly trends section for further details. On March 6, 2014, the company announced the construction of a new factory for manufacturing machinery associated with photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems. Sanix provides comprehensive service for commercial PV systems, including design, sales, installation, and maintenance. Although the company has strong business fundamentals, keeping up with increasing demand has been a challenge. To cope with this, and to reduce costs, the company will construct new facilities for manufacturing machinery associated with PV power generation systems. The new factory will strengthen and expand production capabilities. Factory summary Product to be manufactured: Power conditioners for PV systems Investment amount: JPY845mn (JPY170mn for the acquisition of real estate and buildings) Operations begin: August 2014 (tentative) On February 28, 2014, SR Inc. updated comments on the company’s earnings results for Q3 FY03/14 after interviewing management; please see the results section for further details. On February 13, 2014, the company announced Q3 FY03/14 results and revisions to its full-year earnings forecasts. On February 10, 2014, the company announced monthly sales data for January 2014. On January 10, 2014, the company announced monthly sales data for December 2013. For corporate releases and developments more than three months old, please refer to the News & Topics section. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 4/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Trends & Outlook Monthly Trends FY03/14 Consolidated Monthly Sales Total Sales YoY Apr. May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 5,521 5,091 5,141 5,274 5,349 5,316 6,184 6,631 7,025 7,810 8,460 107.9% 68.6% 71.7% 63.8% 92.8% 57.8% 124.8% 134.8% 92.9% 77.8% 58.2% - 2,401 2,450 2,604 2,634 2,380 3,620 5,391 5,562 6,109 - - - - - - - 3,842 1,091 1,059 1,079 971 917 824 Mar Total 67,802 Sales by Category Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution YoY Home Sanitation (HS) YoY 3,949 797 723 179.0% -26.1% -25.4% -28.2% -21.2% -39.9% -27.4% -27.7% -35.6% Establishment Sanitation (ES) YoY Environmental Resources Development YoY 398 311 491 408 70.1% 31.8% 93.8% 64.6% 411 619 431 1,281 1,288 1,407 1,183 1,333 1,344 1,309 22.7% 8.8% 2.7% -8.2% 13.1% -0.2% 14.3% 37,100 - 633.6% 161.8% 125.7% 688 727 12,718 -5.7% -31.1% 437 445 328 501 88.1% 135.3% 125.8% 57..3% 26.8% -7.0% 30.6% 1,448 1,446 1,232 1,123 32.7% 0.9% 3.8% -6.7% 4,780 14,394 Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Figures in the category breakdown are preliminarly and their sums may differ from finalized monthly sales figures. Quarterly Trends & Results Quarterly Performance (million yen) Sales YoY GP YoY GPM SG&A YoY SG&A / Sales OP YoY OPM RP YoY RPM NI YoY NPM FY03/13 Q1 8,823 17.6% 2,554 11.2% 28.9% 2,670 2.1% 30.3% -116 -116 -171 - Q2 9,362 17.8% 3,292 6.3% 35.2% 2,652 5.6% 28.3% 640 6.8% 625 6.7% 550 5.9% Q3 9,218 16.0% 2,902 9.6% 31.5% 3,260 33.5% 35.4% -358 -424 -505 - FY03/14 Q4 15,964 98.1% 4,622 92.4% 29.0% 2,918 18.4% 18.3% 1,704 10.7% 1,705 10.7% 1,701 10.7% Q1 Q2 15,753 15,939 78.6% 70.3% 4,631 4,372 81.3% 32.8% 29.4% 27.4% 3,666 3,842 37.3% 44.8% 23.3% 24.1% 966 530 - -17.2% 6.1% 3.3% 925 518 - -17.0% 5.9% 3.3% 779 273 - -50.3% 4.9% 1.7% Q3 19,841 115.2% 5,065 74.5% 25.5% 4,140 27.0% 20.9% 925 4.7% 743 3.7% 249 1.3% Q4 - FY03/14 % of FY FY Est. 61.0% 84,500 94.9% 38.4% 6,300 236.8% 7.5% 36.4% 6,000 235.4% 7.1% 36.1% 3,600 128.6% 4.3% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 5/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Segment Sales and Profit FY03/13 (million yen) FY03/14 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 8,823 9,362 9,218 15,964 15,753 15,939 19,841 17.6% 17.8% 16.0% 98.1% 78.6% 70.3% 115.2% 360 535 1,362 7,351 7,455 7,700 11,961 - - - - - - 778.2% 4,140 4,282 3,365 3,033 3,114 2,973 2,360 - - - - -24.8% -30.6% -29.9% 723 729 819 1,693 1,196 1,403 1,312 - - - - 65.4% 92.5% 60.2% 3,597 3,814 3,670 3,885 3,986 3,861 4,205 - - - - 10.8% 1.2% 14.6% Operating Profit 2,554 3,292 2,902 4,622 4,631 4,372 5,065 YoY 11.2% 6.3% 9.6% 92.4% 81.3% 32.8% 74.5% 58 104 420 1,961 1,803 1,873 2,742 - - - - - - 552.9% 16.1% 19.4% 30.8% 26.7% 24.2% 24.3% 22.9% 1,413 1,880 1,560 1,148 1,548 1,522 877 - - - - 9.6% -19.0% -43.8% 34.1% 43.9% 46.4% 37.9% 49.7% 51.2% 37.2% 223 252 243 362 272 337 303 - - - - 22.0% 33.7% 24.7% 30.8% 34.6% 29.7% 21.4% 22.7% 24.0% 23.1% 857 1,055 677 1,149 1,006 637 1,141 - - - - 17.4% -39.6% 68.5% 23.8% 27.7% 18.4% 29.6% 25.2% 16.5% 27.1% -116 640 -358 1,704 966 530 925 - 9.5% - - - -17.2% - -43 -16 -407 993 554 398 1,004 - - - - - - - - - - 13.5% 7.4% 5.2% 8.4% 164 711 521 171 601 567 -73 - - - - 266.5% -20.3% - Operating Profit Margin 4.0% 16.6% 15.5% 5.6% 19.3% 19.1% - Establishment Sanitation 11 39 -1 89 31 51 25 Sales YoY Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution YoY Home Sanitation YoY Establishment Sanitation YoY Environmental Resources Development YoY Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution YoY Gross Profit Margin Home Sanitation YoY Gross Profit Margin Establishment Sanitation YoY Gross Profit Margin Environmental Resources Development YoY Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit YoY Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution YoY Operating Profit Margin Home Sanitation YoY YoY Operating Profit Margin Environmental Resources Development - - - - 181.8% 30.8% - 1.5% 5.3% - 5.3% 2.6% 3.6% 1.9% 294 498 134 640 439 78 568 - - - - 49.3% -84.3% 323.9% 8.2% 13.1% 3.7% 16.5% 11.0% 2.0% 13.5% YoY Operating Profit Margin Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Q3 FY03/14 Results (announced on February 13, 2014; please refer to the table above) Cumulative Q3 sales were JPY51.5bn (+88.1% YoY), operating profit was JPY2.4bn (+1,357.2%), recurring profit was JPY2.2bn (+2,494.9%), and net income was JPY1.3bn (against a net loss of JPY126mn the previous year). The Commercial Photovoltaic Solution (CPS) segment saw increases in sales in the solar power system wholesale business and in the commercial solar power systems business—which began full operations in Q4 FY03/13. However, sales decreased in the Home Sanitation (HS) segment as the company moved employees to the CPS segment. In the Establishment Sanitation (ES) segment, sales of solar power systems increased to the operators of multistory buildings and residential properties. In the Environmental Resource Development (ERS) segment, sales increased in plastic fuel, electricity sales from http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 6/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 the Tomakomai Power Plant, and organic waste liquid processing services. Sales of solar power systems and wholesale sales in the CPS segment contributed to increases in profits. Results by segment were as follows. Commercial Photovoltaic Solution (CPS) Sales were JPY27.1bn (JPY2.3bn the previous year) and operating profit was JPY2.0bn (against an operating loss of JPY587mn the previous year). Sales of commercial solar power systems were JPY22.3bn (JPY443mn the previous year). Wholesale sales of components for photovoltaic (PV) modules were JPY4.8bn (+164.9% YoY). There was no change in the trend since Q1 that order receipts grew more and more month by month. Order receipts in December 2013 expanded to as high as around six times the level in April 2013. Monthly index of orders received for commercial PV systems (direct sales) since October 2012 (April 2013 = 100) 2013 February 114.1 March April May June July August September October November December January 86.0 100.0 150.5 236.6 258.2 260.1 333.3 436.4 499.0 600.7 611.5 Source: Company data, SR Inc. * Orders received are for systems for which an equipment approval application has been filed with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Operating profit improved as the large jump in sales offset increased advertising and personnel expenses. On a quarterly basis, GPM in Q3 declined to 22.9% from 24.2% in Q1. While the ratios of materials costs and outsourced processing expenses to sales decreased, that of labor costs to sales rose on an increase in employees to cope with the expansion of orders. In the business, the company boosted the number of construction workers to 1,077 in Q3 from 277 as of end March 2013. As a result, labor costs under COGS rose to JPY1.0bn (8.4% of sales) in Q3 from JPY356mn (4.8%) in Q1. Home Sanitation (HS) Sales were JPY8.4bn (-28.3% YoY) and operating profit was JPY1.1bn (-27.8%). Sales decreased in this segment as the company moved employees to the CPS segment. Sales of household PV systems dropped particularly sharply, at -83.9% YoY. Also, operating profit fell as fixed costs—SG&A expenses and the like—ate up a larger proportion of falling sales. Establishment Sanitation (ES) Sales were JPY3.9bn (+72.2% YoY) and operating profit was JPY108mn (+119.1%). Sales remained steady for building management and upkeep services to proprietors of multistory buildings and residential properties. However, sales of solar power systems leaped up 315.8% YoY, after the company carried out sales operations in the Kanto region. Operating profit also increased in line with sales. As of February 2014, the company’s commercial PV solution business operates direct sales and http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 7/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 construction of commercial solar power systems mainly in western Japan and wholesaling of PV panels mainly in eastern Japan. The company said it plans to assign to this ES segment direct sales and construction of commercial solar power systems in eastern Japan. Environmental Resources Development (ERD) Sales were JPY12.1bn (+8.8% YoY) and operating profit was JPY1.1bn (+17.2%). In the plastic fuel business, the inward volume of waste plastic and organic waste liquid for processing increased. Also, operations at the Tomakomai Power Plant were stable. Thus, overall sales increased, which led to an increase in operating profit. On a quarterly basis, both sales and operating profit in the segment decreased in Q2 because the company suspended the operation of the Tomakomai Power Plant for about a month for a periodical comprehensive overhaul, which cost around JPY300mn. In Q3, however, both sales and operating profit surpassed those in Q1. 1H FY03/14 Results (announced on November 13, 2013; please refer to the table above) Sales in 1H FY03/14 were 31.7 billion yen (+74.3% YoY), operating profit was 1.5 billion yen (+185.3% YoY), recurring profit was 1.4 billion yen (+183.7% YoY), and net income for 1H was 1.1 billion yen (+177.4% YoY). Sales increased substantially in 1H FY03/14, boosted by the full-fledged launch of installations of commercial solar power systems in Q4 FY03/13 in the Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) segment. In the Home Sanitation (HS) segment, the company’s shift to focus on commercial solar power systems and workforce reduction (transferred to the CPS segment) led to a large decline in sales of residential solar power systems. In the Establishment Sanitation (ES) segment, sales of commercial solar power systems for large buildings and condominiums increased. The Environmental Resource Development (ERD) segment saw increased revenues from plastic fuel and electricity generated by the Tomakomai Power Station, which operated smoothly. The CPS segment moved into profitability, driven by much higher sales of commercial solar power systems. In the HS segment, although there was a large drop in sales of residential solar power systems, operating profit increased as high-margin termite control services and products accounted for a larger portion of the sales mix. Results by segment were as follows. Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) Sales were 15.2 billion yen (896 million yen in 1H FY03/13) and operating profit was 953 million yen (loss of 179 million yen in 1H FY03/13). Sales of mainstay commercial solar power systems were newly added to results, and there was an increase in wholesale sales of PV modules and other components. Operating profit improved as the large jump in sales offset increased newspaper and other advertising expenses. According to the company, in the CPS segment, the commencement of system installation in approximately 30 commercial PV projects has been pushed back into 2H FY03/14. This delay is http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 8/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 attributable to technical investigations conducted prior to connection to the electrical utility’s power transmission grid requiring a greater number of days than initially estimated. In light of this situation, on November 12 the company announced a revision of its 1H FY03/14 forecasts. Technical investigation prior to grid connection: Pursuant to various laws and regulations, electrical utilities conduct a technical investigation before connecting a PV system to its transmission grid to identify any impact on its grid and customers. Based on the results of this investigation, if the utility needs to make modifications to its equipment or facilities, the PV system owner must bear the related costs. Orders for commercial PV systems were robust, with orders in October 2013 running at more than four times the level recorded in April 2013. The company increased its CPS segment western Japan sales force from 46 staff at end-March 2013 to 91 staff at end-September 2013. According to the company, the growth in orders was attributable to ongoing newspaper advertising coupled with the increase in sales staff. The company commented that it is seeing an increasing number of repeat orders as well as introductions from existing customers. Monthly index of orders received for commercial PV systems (direct sales) since October 2012 (April 2013 = 100) 2012 October 102.0 2013 November December 90.7 87.3 January February 76.1 114.1 March April May June July August September October 86.0 100.0 150.5 236.6 258.2 260.1 333.3 436.4 Source: Company data, SR Inc. * Orders received are for systems for which an equipment approval application has been filed with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Home Sanitation (HS) Sales were 6.1 billion yen (-27.7% YoY) and operating profit was 1.2 billion yen (+17.3% YoY). Although sales of termite control services and floor/ceiling ventilation systems grew, there was a large decline in sales of household solar power systems accompanying the shift in personnel to the CPS segment. According to the company, sales of household PV systems decreased after the move from an aggressive marketing stance to one of responding to requests from customers. The company said that by increasing the frequency of sales calls on existing customers, it achieved a large increase in sales of termite control services and floor and roof ventilation systems. Operating profit increased as high-margin existing products (termite control services, floor and roof ventilation systems, etc.) accounted for a larger portion of the sales mix. Establishment Sanitation (ES) Sales were 2.6 billion yen (+79.0% YoY) and operating profit was 83 million yen (+63.6% YoY). Sales and profit rose as the segment boosted sales programs for solar power systems targeting commercial building operators and expanded installation capacity. Environmental Resources Development (ERD) Sales were 7.8 billion yen (+5.9% YoY) and operating profit was 518 million yen (-34.7% YoY). Plastic fuel revenue rose as the inward volume of waste plastic increased, and electricity sales also grew thanks to the stable operation of the Tomakomai Power Station. Operating profit decreased YoY due to expenses incurred for large-scale periodical maintenance at the Tomakomai Power Station. This maintenance cost approximately 300 million yen and meant the plant was off-line for about a month. This expense was not incurred in 1H FY03/13. Although results in 1H fell short of the company’s initial forecasts, the company maintained its full-year http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 9/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 forecasts for FY03/14 unchanged. The company expects sales and profit to increase greatly in 2H driven by the CPS segment. The company said that commercial PV system orders are strong, and the balance of orders on hand is increasing. Consequently, the company indicated that it is confident of achieving its sales and profit forecasts. SR Inc. believes that it the delay situation caused by the power utility technical investigations becomes drawn out, the company may not reach its sales and profit forecasts. Q1 FY03/14 Results Sales in Q1 FY03/14 were 16.0 billion yen (+81.7% YoY), operating profit was 1.1 billion yen (operating loss of 116 million yen in the previous year), recurring profit was 1.0 billion yen (recurring loss of 116 million yen), and net income for Q1 was 830 million yen (net loss of 171 million yen). Sales increase substantially in Q1 FY03/14, boosted by the full-fledged launch of installations of commercial solar power systems in Q4 FY03/13 in the Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) segment. In the Home Sanitation (HS) segment, the company’s shift to focus on commercial solar power systems and workforce reduction led to a large decline in sales of residential solar power systems. In the Establishment Sanitation (ES) segment, sales of commercial solar power systems for large buildings and condominiums increased. The Environmental Resource Development (ERD) segment saw increased revenues from plastic fuel and electricity generated by the Tomakomai Power Station, which operated smoothly. In Q1 FY03/14, sales in the Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) segment increased significantly, mainly due to shift personnel from the Home Sanitation (HS) segment to this segment. Consequently, its sales breakdown also dramatically changed. Specifically, CPS segment sales expanded to roughly 49% of total sales in Q1 FY03/14 compared to around 4% in FY03/13. The HS segment declined to approximately 19% of total sales in Q1 FY03/14 compared to around 47% in Q1 FY03/13. The CPS segment moved into profitability and became the company’s profit mainstay, driven by much higher sales of commercial solar power systems. In the HS segment, although there was a large drop in sales of residential solar power systems, operating profit increased as high-margin termite control services and floor and roof ventilation systems accounted for a larger portion of sales mix. In the ERD segment, profit rose as all businesses achieved sales growth. Results by segment were as follow: Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) Sales were 7.7 billion yen (361 million yen in previous year) and operating profit was 645 million yen (loss of 38 million yen). Sales of mainstay commercial solar power systems were newly added to results, and there was an increase in wholesale sales of solar power modules and other components. Operating profit improved as the large jump in sales offset increased newspaper and other advertising expenses. Orders for commercial solar systems continued to grow strongly, and nearly doubled in June from April. The company increased sales staff in western Japan to 67 employees at the end of June 2013 from 46 employees at the end of March 2013 in its CPS segment. According to the company, the reasons for the rise in orders are attributed to an increase in sales staff, in addition to ongoing newspaper advertisements, coupled with referrals and repeat business from existing customers. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 10/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Monthly index of orders received for commercial PV systems (direct sales) since October 2012 (April 2013 = 100) 2012 October 102.0 November December 2013 January February March April May June July 90.7 87.3 76.1 114.1 86.0 100.0 150.5 236.6 258.2 Source: Company data, SR Inc. * Orders received are for systems for which an equipment approval application has been filed with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Home Sanitation (HS) Sales were 3.1 billion yen (-24.8% YoY) and operating profit was 601 million yen (+276.7% YoY). Although sales of termite control services and floor/ceiling ventilation systems grew, there was a large decline in sales of household solar power systems accompanying the shift in personnel to the CPS segment. Establishment Sanitation (ES) Sales were 1.2 billion yen (+65.4% YoY) and operating profit was 32 million yen (+175.2% YoY). Sales and profit rose as the segment strengthened sales programs for solar power systems targeting commercial building operators and expanded its installation capacity. Environmental Resources Development (ERD) Sales were 4.0 billion yen (+10.8% YoY) and operating profit was 439 million yen (+49.2 % YoY). Plastic fuel revenue rose as the inward volume of waste plastic increased, and electricity sales also grew thanks to the stable operation of the Tomakomai Power Station. The segment achieved a large rise in operating profit driven by higher sales and cost reductions through increased productivity. For details on previous quarterly and annual results, please refer to the Historical Performance section. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 11/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Full-Year (FY03/14) Outlook 1H 18,185 17.7% FY03/13 2H 25,182 57.4% CoGS 12,338 Gross Profit 5,846 Earnings & Outlook (million yen) Sales YoY YoY Gross Profit Margin SG&A SG&A/Sales Ratio Operating Profit YoY Operating Profit Margin 17,658 29,996 22,689 7,524 13,370 9,003 49.0% 32.1% 29.9% 5,322 6,178 29.3% 24.5% 28.0% 54.0% 30.8% 28.4% 11,500 FY03/14 2H Est. 52,808 109.7% FY Est. 84,500 94.9% 7,507 26.5% 23.7% 524 1,346 1,870 1,496 4,804 6,300 96.6% 840.5% 356.4% 185.3% 256.9% 236.8% 5.3% 509 YoY 1H Act. 31,692 74.3% 8.4% 2.9% Recurring Profit Full-Year 43,366 37.9% 1,280 4.3% 4.7% 9.1% 7.5% 1,789 1,443 4,557 6,000 235.4% 114.5% - 414.1% 183.7% 255.9% 2.8% 5.1% 4.1% 4.6% 8.6% 7.1% 1,052 177.4% 2,548 113.1% 3,600 128.6% Recurring Profit Margin Net Income YoY 379 1,196 - 1,575 - - Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Segment Breakdown & Outlook FY03/13 (million yen) FY03/14 1H 2H Full-Year 1H Act. 2H Est. FY Est. 18,185 25,182 43,366 31,692 52,808 84,500 17.7% 57.4% 37.9% 74.3% 109.7% 94.9% Commercial Photovoltaic Solution (CPS) 895 8,720 9,617 18,481 33,566 52,047 22.8% - 581.6% - 284.9% 441.2% 8,422 6,390 14,814 5,368 5,297 10,665 -28.0% Sales YoY YoY Home Sanitation (HS) YoY 3.5% -11.9% -3.8% -36.3% -17.1% 1,452 2,512 3,965 2,853 3,032 5,885 8.3% 77.4% 43.8% 96.5% 20.7% 48.4% Environmental Resources Development 7,411 (ERD) 7,555 14,967 7,398 8,505 15,903 Established Sanitation (ES) YoY YoY 41.3% 13.6% 25.9% -0.2% 12.6% 6.3% 524 1,346 1,870 1,496 4,804 6,300 96.6% 840.5% 356.4% 185.3% 256.9% 236.8% Commercial Photovoltaic Solution (CPS) -59 380 320 2,220 3,734 5,954 - - - 882.6% - Operating Profit YoY YoY - Home Sanitation (HS) YoY 875 898 1,775 1,180 -162 1,018 -46.6% 29.8% -28.5% 34.9% -118.0% -42.6% Established Sanitation (ES) 50 88 139 249 67 316 - 66.0% 239.0% 398.0% -23.9% 127.3% YoY Environmental Resources Development 792 (ERD) YoY - 774 1,567 520 1,072 1,592 38.7% 446.0% -34.3% 38.5% 1.6% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 12/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Regarding the operating environment, although the price paid under the renewable energy feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme was revised in April 2013, the scheme is being continued and the environment is favorable for aggressive expansion of the commercial solar power business. The volume of fuel used and electricity sold at the Tomakomai Power Station are both growing steadily, and the company is focusing on maintaining fuel quality and aiming for high efficiency in operation the station’s operations. Feed-in Tariff (FIT): System to promote the use of renewable energy. Under the system, electric utilities are obliged to purchase electricity from renewable energy producers (i.e., solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass) at fixed prices for fixed durations. The prices and durations are revised every year. Generation facilities must obtain FIT certifications from the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. The company forecasts sales of JPY84.5bn (+94.9%% YoY), as the CPS segment is set to contribute to full-year earnings and the company also expects a robust performance from the waste-to-energy (WtE) power generation business. Operating profit is forecast at JPY6.3bn (+236.8% YoY), underpinned by higher sales and lower solar power-related materials costs. Revisions to full-year forecasts The increase in employee numbers and the rise in wholesale sales and orders of commercial solar power systems mean that the company has added to its installation capacity in the CPS segment. Therefore the company expects to see an increase in construction starts and completions, and has made an upward revision to its full-year sales forecast accordingly. The company made downward revisions to its profit forecasts because of increases in fixed costs as it employs more technicians to cope with a growing influx of orders, and expands its distribution system. The company also expects that yen depreciation will cause some loss due to higher procurement costs of PV modules. FY03/14 full-year earnings forecasts Sales: JPY84.5bn (previous forecast: JPY71.5bn) Operating profit: JPY6.3bn (JPY8.0bn) Recurring profit: JPY6.0bn (JPY8.0bn) Net income: JPY3.6bn (JPY5.1bn) The outlook for each segment is as follows: Commercial PV Solution (CPS) Sales are forecast to be JPY52.0bn (+441.2% YoY) and operating profit is forecast at JPY6.0bn (operating profit of JPY320mn the previous year). The company anticipates an increase in inquiries driven by additional orders and introductions from existing customers and the execution of efficient, ongoing advertising and sales promotion campaigns. The company expects to achieve a large increase in sales as it boosts its technician workforce in response to growth in orders. In addition, the company aims to improve profitability through cost reductions and by raising the efficiency of installation operations. Specifically, the company is working to build its procurement system for such components as PV modules and power conditioners, and introduce a PV panel mount system developed in-house. The company forecasts Q4 sales in the segment at JPY2.5bn, double Q3 sales of JPY12bn. Though the company has prepared installation capacity to achieve the sales target in Q4, it said that the risk factor is management of construction and distribution of materials for an unexperienced amount of construction http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 13/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 works. Home Sanitation (HS) The company forecasts sales of JPY10.7bn (-28.0%% YoY) and operating profit of JPY1.0bn (-42.6% YoY). As well as providing maintenance and other after-sales services related to termite control services and floor/ceiling ventilation systems, the company plans to make sales approaches based on introductions from existing customers. Sales are forecast to decline due to a fall in sales of household PV systems. In addition, as part of costs in the commercial PV solution segment is allocated to this segment, operating profit should decline. Establishment Sanitation (ES) The company forecasts sales of JPY5.9bn (+48.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY316mn (+127.3% YoY). In addition to aggressive sales activities targeting solar power systems for large buildings, condominiums and group housing estates, the company plans to promote sales of high-margin anti-rust equipment installation and other existing products and services. This is expected to lead to sales growth and an improvement in profitability. Environmental Resources Development (ERD) Sales are forecast to be JPY15.9bn (+6.3% YoY) and operating income is forecast at JPY1.6bn (+1.6% YoY). In the power generation business, the company is pursuing plastic-fuel quality improvements, and aims to enhance generation efficiency at its Tomakomai Power Station, which underwent large-scale repairs in July 2013. In the waste plastic processing business, plastic fuel inward shipments are expected to be robust, however processing unit prices are anticipated to fall attributable to a growing trend of using high quality plastics. Future Outlook Under the “Spring Plan 2012” medium-term management plan that was implemented from FY03/11 through FY03/13, the company developed businesses that meet society’s rising environment-related needs, and worked to lay the foundations for further growth. As a result, the company cultivated its solar power business and nurtured the commercial PV solution segment as a new growth driver. In the Environmental Resources Development segment, through increased sales in waste plastic recycling and stable operations of power generation, this segment moved into profitability and became a steady source of earnings. As of October 2013, the company has not released a medium-term business plan, but SR Inc. believes that the company will implement a growth strategy centered on the expansion of the commercial solar power business and waste plastic recycling in the ERD segment. If the company can achieve its forecasts for FY03/14, it will deserve strong appraisal for getting the commercial solar power business onto a growth track, and the stage will be set for ongoing expansion. The power generation business in the ERD segment is operating steadily, and has the potential to become a stable source of earnings. Furthermore, in the waste plastic recycling business, SR Inc. believes that there is room for expansion through an increase in processing plants. In FY03/13 and FY03/14, the company is working to bolster its financial base through enhanced http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 14/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 profitability, and it is reasonable to assume that the company will move enter a phase in which it can expand investment in personnel and facilities in its growth businesses. Enhanced Growth Opportunities through Expansion of Sales Area in Commercial Solar Power Business In the commercial solar power business, expansion of sales area is anticipated as the next future step. Currently, sales programs are centered on full-page newspaper advertisements in the western Japan, in addition to increased orders and introductions from existing customers. In eastern Japan, since sales and installation structures are not yet sufficient, the company is only conducting wholesale operations. The commercial solar power business has achieved ample price competitiveness by leveraging operations that cover everything from procurement to installation. The business is capable of generating high earnings, hence it is not difficult to imagine that in the near future the company is likely to boost its sales and installation workforce, and embark on direct sales and installations in eastern Japan. Under such a scenario, although there may be a temporary increase in expenses relating to advertisements, workforce and facilities expansion, eastern Japan presents an extremely large potential for sales growth, and hence increased opportunities for future growth. Overview of Solar Power System Sales and Installation Structure Source: Company data http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 15/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Business Description Sanix began as a termite control services company, and from the early-2000s branched out into the environmental resources development field, including power generation business. In March 2010, the company commenced solar power generation business. As of October 2013, the company’s mainstay businesses are focused on commercial solar power generation, and environmental resources development (i.e., power generation and waste recycling). Segments The company’s four business segments are Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS), Home Sanitation (HS), Establishment Sanitation (ES) (targeting corporate customers), and Environmental Resource Development (ERD). Commercial Photovoltaic Solution (CPS) In FY03/13, the CPS segment accounted for 22.2% of total sales and 8.4% of operating profit. This business is involved in the sale and installation of commercial solar power systems, and wholesale solar power modules. As one of the company’s mainstay businesses, it supplies solar power generation systems with a capacity over 10kW. The CPS segment is a growth engine for the company, with sales in FY03/13 reaching approximately seven times the level of FY03/12. The segment showed operating profit of 320 million yen in FY03/13 compared to an operating loss of 265 million yen in FY03/12. In FY03/14, the company forecast CPS segment sales at around four times the FY03/13 level and operating profit of approximately 6.0 billion yen, or 56.4% of overall operating profit projection. Home Sanitation (HS) In FY03/13, the HS segment accounted for 34.2% of total sales and 46.7% of operating profit. This segment provides sales and installation of residential solar power systems, termite control-related installation, ceiling and floor ventilation system installation, and foundation repairing and strengthening construction work. In July 2006, the company was ordered by regulatory authorities to suspend operations in relation to door-to-door sales practices (see Termite Control Services and Floor/Ceiling Ventilation Systems). Subsequently, the company ceased new customer acquisition activities and decided to focus operations on after-sales maintenance for existing customers. From March 2013, the company is shifting management resources to the CPS segment, and in the HS segment it plans to respond to needs for residential solar power systems. Establishment Sanitation (ES) In FY03/13, the ES segment accounted for 9.1% of total sales and 3.7% of operating profit. This business provides corporate customers with installation services relating to environmental sanitation, as well as maintenance services relating to office building and condominium plumbing facilities. The company intends to make solar power systems for roof tops of buildings and condominiums a mainstay product and grow this business accordingly. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 16/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Environmental Resources Development (ERD) In FY03/13, the ERD segment accounted for 34.5% of total sales and 41.2% of operating profit. The main businesses are waste plastic recycling, power generation and organic waste fluid processing. Waste plastic recycling involves taking waste plastic from industrial customers and processing it at the company’s plastic-resource development factory into industrial waste-based plastic fuel. The power generation business uses this as its main fuel for generating electricity, which is sold to end-users (undisclosed). Furthermore, the company intends to sell plastic fuel as boiler fuel to paper companies. Main Businesses Although the company operates a diverse array of businesses, its main businesses, explained in detail below, are: commercial solar power; waste plastic recycling and power generation in the Environmental Resource Development segment; and termite control services and floor & ceiling ventilation systems installation. Solar Power Generation Overview An important feature of this business is its end-to-end nature—the company does everything from solar power system procurement through to sales and installation. Since the company sells and installs the systems, it receives a lump fee covering both equipment and installation. Sales may be calculated by the simple formula of installed capacity (kW) multiplied by the installation fee per kW (yen). This business began by supplying household solar power systems, but from 2012 the company altered its focus to commercial solar power systems. Low-voltage power-receiving equipment capable of receiving 10kW to 50kW is the main sales target, and the company makes sales proposals for the effective use of locations such as factory and office building roofs and idle land. PV systems of 10kW-50kW capacity, which can be installed in low-voltage power systems, do not require notification or other administrative procedures, and qualify for full purchase of power under the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) scheme (see Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Scheme). PV systems with capacity of 50kW and over require declaration of compliance with safety regulations and participation of a senior licensed electrician. Centered on western Japan, the company markets its services through full-page newspaper advertisements, which emphasize the advantages of solar power. Most sales are with owners of idle land, fallow agricultural plots, condominiums and factories. Leveraging its price competitiveness, the company offers volume discounts based on the procurement of low-cost materials, in-house production, and the receipt of stable, large-scale orders. The company’s low prices are also underpinned by its ability to eliminate intermediary margins by performing end-to-end services spanning procurement, sales and installation. Four years after commencement, the company’s solar power system-related business has grown to 19.0 billion yen in annual sales (FY03/13). The company forecasts sales to grow to approximately 45.0 billion yen in FY03/14. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 17/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Commercial Solar Power System S ource: C ompany data, S R Inc. Research Photovoltaic Solution (PV) Segment Sales Breakdown FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 Act. Act. Act. Act. Est. Commercial solar power systems - - - 6,073 32,725 YoY - - - - 438.9% Wholesale of solar power components - 1,023 1,411 3,544 7,039 YoY - - 37.9% 151.2% 98.6% (million yen) Residential solar power systems FY03/14 1,086 4,237 5,031 7,683 1,211 YoY - 290.1% 18.7% 52.7% -84.2% Multi-residential solar power systems - 297 403 1,713 4,479 YoY - - 35.7% 325.1% 161.5% Total YoY 1,086 5,557 6,846 19,015 45,459 - 411.7% 23.2% 177.8% 139.1% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Sales Method Sales of commercial solar power systems are centered on western Japan, where the company markets its services through full-page newspaper advertisements, which emphasize the advantages of solar power. Most sales are with owners of idle land, fallow agricultural plots, condominiums and factories. The advertisements include such information as estimated income from solar power installations, cost of installing the systems, and investment payback period. For example, the installation cost for a 49kW system is 12-13 million yen (approximately 270,000 yen per kW), and the annual income from electricity sold back to the grid is estimated at around 1.7 million yen, giving a payback period of 7-8 years. Hence, the advertising content is designed to be readily understood and clearly illustrate the product’s attractiveness. Installed solar power modules’ expected lifetime is between 20 and 30 years, and the loss of output capacity due to aging is projected at less than 10% after 20 years. As of October 2013, the company provided a 25-year warranty on module performance. Under Japan’s current feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme, customers who install the company’s solar power systems are almost assured of reaping benefits. After a solar power system is installed, a customer is able to monitor the amount of electricity generated daily and subsequently receives payment from the electricity company for the power fed back into the grid. Hence, in a short period customers can confirm the performance of their investment. As a result, within a few months after installation Sanix often receives new orders through introductions from existing customers or additional orders from such http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 18/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 customers. The company’s experience in selling services that require painstaking explanation—the termite control services—appears to SR Inc. to be one of the keys to Sanix’s early success in photovoltaic installations. The products and services sold by the company in its CPS (photovoltaic) segment require a substantial amount of explanation, which means that differentiation depends not only on price but also sales channel. Up to the point of installation, a sales company will need to discuss and explain a wide range of issues with the customer—these include installation method, power generation simulations, payment method, and the advantages of installing a solar power system. Consequently, specialist knowledge, the ability to respond to customer needs, and skills in explaining various aspects hold the key to closing a sale. This is not the type of product that can be simply handed over to a customer in a store, and to win a sales contract an installer or specialist sales person must visit the customer’s site and confirm the exact location where the solar power system will be installed and agree on a date and time for the installation work to be carried out. Furthermore, after-sales service is also an important part of the business, which means the company’s know-how in providing sales explanations and sales staff training programs cultivated in the termite control business could be effectively leveraged. From a sales point of view, solar power systems have installation benefits based on policies such as the FIT scheme, and solar power has a positive image since it is an environment-friendly renewable power source. Hence, compared with termite control services, solar power may be seen as having more immediate appeal among potential customers. Since there is no need to perform a free-of-charge inspection of the customer’s premises during the initial period of sales discussions, sales staff can achieve efficient progress in their sales activities. Price Competitiveness in the Commercial Solar Power Business SR Inc. believes that one of the company’s strengths is price competitiveness. The manufacturing technology for solar power panels is well established. Since manufacturing is relatively standardized, it is probably difficult to achieve significant differentiation based on product quality (especially given 20-year warranty underwritten by insurance companies). If the product is all essentially the same, selling cheaper is a logical tactical approach. The company says it achieves lower prices thanks to the following two key aspects. First, it works to procure solar power panels at the lowest possible price by constantly monitoring the market for suppliers of high-quality, low-priced panels. Additionally, its own solar panel factory stringently works to reduce its costs to the lowest level possible. Second, by operating an end-to-end service encompassing procurement, sales and installation, Sanix can save money by eliminating multiple intermediaries. The company says this is a substantial advantage as virtually no large providers in this particular niche (small-scale “commercial”—i.e. producing electricity for sale—installations) offer a similar end-to-end service. A portion of the solar power modules are manufactured at the company’s own factory, but the majority of production is subcontracted out to other makers Thanks to a worldwide glut of manufacturing capacity for solar power modules, in-house production is not necessarily the lowest-price method of procurement. Sanix is constantly on the outlook for the cheapest equipment suppliers—at the quality acceptable for the demanding Japanese market. Furthermore, the company’s scale provides an advantage in volume discount negotiations. Specifically, the company focuses on small- to medium-sized solar power systems, and operates an order-based business. Hence, based on its installation plans, the company can continually place large-lot orders with solar power module suppliers. In contrast, given the order volume from small-scale providers that specialize in residential solar power systems are small, major solar power module manufacturers do not have the sales structure to deal directly with these small-lot dealers (i.e., order volume too small to make it worth dealing directly with these small-lot customers). Major construction companies that handle mega-solar projects are able to place large-lot order but may not be able to enjoy volume discounts given http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 19/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 that such orders are done on an ad hoc basis. Sanix gathers a large number of small and medium-sized orders (i.e., its overall order volume is high and stable), and can deal directly with manufacturers for the best volume discounts. Furthermore, the company intends to reduce costs by producing equipment such as inverters and panel mounts in-house. With regard to the second aspect, generally within the sales channel, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers of solar power panels, panel mounts and inverters add their own margin at each stage. By the time the product reaches the consumer, these margins add up to a substantial premium inflating the final price. Sanix does everything more or less by itself, sharing the savings with the customer as a lower price while earning a healthy margin. This is critically important because for the customer, a “commercial” installation is an investment and the initial price determines the return on this investment over the years. A Typical Solar Power Value Chain Solar Power Value Chain Power Controllers, Mounts Solar Panels Gross margin Wholesaler Gross margin Retailer Gross margin Installer Installation cost Installation margin Final Customer Source: SR Inc. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 20/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 A Typical Solar Power Cost Structure Breakdown of Solar Power Costs and Profit Margin Sales and Installation Margin 20% Installation Cost 15% Solar Power Module, Power Controllers and Other Materials 50% Wholesale Margin 15% Source: SR Inc. As of October 2013, the company sold commercial solar power systems for approximately 270,000 yen per kW. Although price varies depending on installation conditions, making it difficult to compare simple averages, the government committee that determines the price paid under the FIT scheme releases average system costs. For the October-December 2012 period, it put the average for 10kW to 50 kW systems at 437,000 yen per kW. Hence, the company’s average price per kW was very low in comparison with the overall market. Simulations for customers installing a solar power system supplied by Sanix show an initial investment payback period of around eight years, a simple yield of 15% and an internal rate of return (IRR) of about 8%. The company assumes that the feed-in tariffs under the FIT scheme will inevitably decline in the future, meaning that to sustain attractiveness of its offering for customers, it must work constantly to reduce costs. As part of these efforts, in 2011 Sanix began producing solar power modules at its own factory in Shanghai, China. In 2013, the company newly established an in-house division devoted to energy technology development, meaning it is continuously examining ways to reduce the procurement cost of materials. Apart from the solar power modules, Sanix has been looking at in-house production of such peripheral equipment as inverters. The company also makes ongoing improvements to panel mounts, which helps to enhance installation efficiency and reduce costs. Organization of the Solar Power Business With regard to organization, in 2010 the company established Shanri (Shanghai) Energy Science and Technology Co., Ltd., as a solar power module manufacturing subsidiary in China. In 2012, to meet the needs of a full-fledged commercial solar power business, the company set up Sanix Engineering Inc. (100%-owned subsidiary) to handle planning, design, sales, installation and consulting for commercial solar power systems. Hence, the company is building on its track record in the residential solar power system field to establish itself in the commercial solar power market. Sanix has also aggressively expanded its workforce in the commercial solar power business, with 58 sales staff and 277 technicians as of the end of March 2013, and increased to 79 sales staff and 438 technicians as of end of June 2013. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 21/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Sales offices for the commercial solar power business are mainly located in western Japan. The company had 63 sales offices nationwide and six sales offices in eastern Japan focusing wholesale operations. Souce:Company Data Factors Affecting Earnings of the Solar Power Business A simple formula for calculating sales in the solar power business is the capacity installed (kW) multiplied by average price per kW. Cost of sales (CoGS) comprises such items as system components, installation labor cost and outsourced work. These include solar power modules (including those manufactured in-house) and the other solar power system components (such as inverters, power generation monitors, cables, and mounts). SR Inc. believes that the price paid under the FIT scheme will at some stage be lowered and price competition for solar power system installation will lead to gradual year-by-year declines in installation prices. However, procurement prices for system components are expected to decrease through cost reductions, and consequently, leading to stable gross profit margins. On the other hand, variable costs such as installation labor expenses, are expected to rise in parallel with sales SG&A expenses mainly comprises of fixed components, such sales force labor costs, and advertising expenses. As sales grow, although it will be necessary to expand the sales force, SR Inc. believes that a significant part of these are fixed costs. Given that SG&A expenses are essentially fixed costs, SR Inc. estimates that the marginal profit ratio for the solar power business is between 30% and 40%. Profits are basically affected by volume, (fluctuation in solar power capacity installed), pricing and costs (i.e., effective cost reduction efforts). Competitors in Solar Power Direct competitors include the Hiroshima-based West Holdings Corporation (JASDAQ: 1407), which began as a house renovation firm and expanded into the solar power business. West is shifting from residential solar power systems toward mega-solar projects and commercial solar power systems. Companies that compete with Sanix in a portion of their business include—in solar power modules—Sharp Corporation (TSE1: 6753), Kyocera Corporation (TSE1: 6971), Panasonic Corporation (TSE1: 6752), http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 22/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (TSE1: 6503), and Solar Frontier K.K. (subsidiary of Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K. (TSE1: 5002)). In solar power systems sales, partial competitors include Yamada Denki Co., Ltd. (TSE1: 9831), while in installation there are competing housing equipment firms in each local area. However, there are very few companies competing on an end-to-end basis encompassing manufacture, sales and installation in the way Sanix does. Based on this fact, as mentioned previously, the company may be seen as having an advantage over its competitors through its structure that allows it to offer lower prices. It is also significant that the company has consciously chosen to focus on the 10kW to 50kW system market, thereby avoiding competition. In other words, for small, local housing equipment installers, the 10kW to 50kW range is beyond their capabilities, and for major construction companies, the scale is below their business threshold, meaning excessive competition is unlikely to occur. Environmental Resource Development This segment’s business is divided into waste plastic recycling, power generation, organic waste water processing, final (i.e., landfill) disposal and others. The waste plastic recycling and power generation businesses account for a large portion of the segment’s operations and these segments exhibit high rates of growth. Segment Sales and Profit (million yen) Environmental Resources Development YoY Waste plastic processing Power generation Organic waste water processing Final disposal Others Operating profit YoY FY03/09 Act. 7,600 1.6% 3,603 1,550 1,833 611 -1,818 - FY03/10 Act. 7,934 4.4% 4,295 1,276 1,474 415 472 -1,112 - FY03/11 Act. 9,511 19.9% 5,023 1,427 1,444 939 676 -216 - FY03/12 Act. 11,890 25.0% 6,673 2,303 1,595 706 611 288 - FY03/13 Act. 14,967 25.9% 8,665 3,370 1,602 607 722 1,568 444.8% FY03/14 Est. 14,850 -0.8% 8,670 3,310 1,741 518 611 1,720 9.7% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Waste Plastic Processing The waste plastic processing business collects plastic generated during the production processes of industrial customers, and Sanix then crushes and processes this plastic at its own factory. The company receives a processing fee for these services from customers whose waste it collects. Revenues vary according to the volume and fee charged. An important feature of this business is that the company turns the waste plastic it processes into fuel, which is then used in its power generation business. The company conducts this business nationwide, and its customers span all industries, from large companies to small enterprises. The company’s appropriate processing method and system to turn waste plastic into regenerated fuel is appraised highly by its customers and the processing volume has increased. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 23/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Plastic Fuel Sales by Region (million yen) Western Japan Sales Volume processed (tons) Unit processing price (thousand Nagoya Region Sales Volume processed (tons) Unit processing price (thousand Kanto Sales Volume processed (tons) Unit processing price (thousand Hokkaido/Tohoku/Hokuriku Sales Volume processed (tons) Unit processing price (thousand Total plastic fuel Sales Volume processed (tons) Unit processing price (thousand Other sales Total sales yen) yen) yen) yen) yen) FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 407 19,256 21.1 1,109 51,530 21.5 1,282 60,292 21.3 804 38,796 20.7 3,603 169,875 21.2 612 4,215 423 24,699 17.1 1,155 67,347 17.2 1,609 87,434 18.4 1,107 61,517 18.0 4,295 241,000 17.8 472 4,768 504 30,704 16.4 1,293 82,782 15.6 1,887 102,930 18.3 1,337 74,321 18.0 5,023 290,738 17.3 676 5,700 574 36,608 15.7 1,413 93,055 15.2 2,264 128,658 17.6 2,422 90,531 19.1 6,673 348,854 19.1 611 7,284 654 43,046 15.2 1,421 94,305 15.1 2,255 125,617 18.0 4,333 109,392 40.4 8,665 370,362 23.4 724 9,389 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Souce:Company Data The company entered the industrial waste processing business in 1994. It has established a large network of plants nationwide, through which it processes and recycles industrial waste. As of October 2013, the Sanix Group operated factories (waste plastic intermediate processing plants) at 15 locations throughout Japan. The plants were set up for the purpose of processing industrial waste plastic generated by companies and other work sites. Its customers span all industries, from large companies to small enterprises. At the end of March 2013, the company’s total annual amount processed was around 370,000 tons. Japan’s waste plastic processing market is approximately 5.0 million tons each for industrial waste. The company’s processing capacity is equivalent to about 7% of all waste plastic processed annually in Japan. Sanix’ waste plastic recycling flow is as follows. 1. The company collects waste plastic generated by companies and other work sites and delivers it to the processing plant 2. The plastic is separated by suitable or non-suitable use as fuel http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 24/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 3. Plastic is processed in a crusher 4. After crushed, the suitable plastic is compressed into 1-meter cubes and packaged for use as plastic fuel. The plastic not suitable for fuel is processed at cement companies, or used landfills. Since Sanix is able to process all types of plastic, but subcontracts this to a number of waste processing companies and provides strict guidance in the separation of such waste. All waste plastic storage and processing are conducted in enclosed spaces (inside plants and storage areas), thereby preventing airborne dispersion of waste, spills and noise pollution. Waste brought to the company’s plants is also strictly managed, including through analysis and testing, throughout the processing system. Article 3 of Japan’s Waste Processing Law, which was amended in 2000, stipulates “A business operator must take responsibility for waste generated in its operations and dispose of such waste appropriately.” This means that companies generating industrial waste are responsible for the waste’s processing and disposal. Although the law mandates processing by the companies generating waste, such companies may contract this work out to authorized industrial waste processors. However, if an industrial waste processor improperly processes or illegally dumps waste, the company that generated the industrial waste and contracted the industrial waste processor may be liable to criminal penalties and obligated to restore a damaged area to its original state. For this reason, when a waste generating company selects a waste plastic processor, an important criterion is not only price but also whether the contractor will process the waste appropriately. The customer usually inspects the processing facilities and confirms the equipment and processing methods to be employed. According to the company, it has built a reputation for its appropriate processing, and this has been a decisive factor in the growth of the business. Competition in waste plastic recycling generally encompasses three to four operators in each of Japan’s 47 prefectures. Major operators include Taiheiyo Cement Corporation (TSE1: 5233), Mitsubishi Materials Corporation (TSE1: 5711), and JFE Kankyo Corporation (subsidiary of JFE Holdings, Inc. (TSE1: 5411)). In addition to its reliability for appropriate recycling methods, Sanix says that its other strength is that it generates power after recycling; meaning customers are able to contribute to the effective reuse of waste materials. Furthermore, the recycling capacity of each plant is high enough to accept large and steady waste shipments. Factors Affecting Earnings of the Waste Plastic Processing Business Sales of the waste plastic recycling may be calculated by multiplying the volume of waste recycled by the average recycling unit price. The recycling volume is dependent on the overall volume of industrial waste generated in Japan. Although this volume is affected to a certain extent by the fortunes of economy, customers use waste processing firms on an ongoing basis and the volume does not greatly fluctuate. The recycling unit price is determined by negotiation, and may be affected by such factors as area, fluctuation in expenses, and the level of economic activity. Waste plastic recycling companies are also involved in the sale of plastic fuel, and although the company sells plastic fuel to Sanix Energy Inc., these sales are eliminated as intercompany transactions at the consolidated level. In addition, the company also sells plastic fuels as boiler fuel to paper companies. Cost of goods sold for industrial waste recycling business mainly comprises of outsourced work and labor costs. These two costs are essential for the operation of the processing plants, and are estimated to be partially controlled depending on the level of capacity utilization. Consequently, the main factors affecting profitability of the waste plastic recycling business are fluctuation in recycling volume, fluctuation in unit processing price, sales volume of post-processed plastic fuel, and fluctuation of selling prices. Power Generation Business A unique feature of the company’s power generation business is use of waste plastic fuel. In this business, revenue is proportionate to the volume of power generated and it is a stable source of earnings for the http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 25/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 company. Although the power plant has experienced a variety of problems in the past, as of October 2013, it was operating steadily. Improvements in the quality of plastic fuel has enabled Sanix to raise its power generation efficiency and made it possible to grow revenues. Sanix Energy Inc., which handles the power generation business, was established in October 2001, and commenced operation of the Sanix Energy Tomakomai Power Station in Hokkaido in 2003. This facility runs completely on waste plastic fuel and supplies electricity. Tomakomai Power Station Source: Company data http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 26/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Tomakomai Power Station Layout Source: Company data The flow of operations at Sanix Energy’s Tomakomai Power Station is as follows. 1. Plastic fuel is re-crushed at the power station into pieces up to 30mm. 2. This plastic fuel is fed into the boiler furnace to produce steam, which turns the turbine to generate electricity. 3. Electricity is sent through transmission lines to supply the electricity purchaser. Source: Company data The power station has one turbine generator with the maximum output of 74,000kW (equivalent to the power needed to supply 23,000 households). Of the 74,000 kW capacity, approximately 15% is used within the company’s plant and the remaining 85% is sold. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 27/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 The power station’s basic design differs from the most common waste-to-energy (WtE) method, which is called Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). The plant adopts a method whereby finely crushed waste plastic (boiler furnace fuel) only is directly fed through four chutes using compressed air into a single-fuel fired boiler (a boiler fired exclusively by waste plastic). The resulting high-temperature, high pressure steam efficiently turns a turbine to generate electricity. After power generation, the steam is recovered using an air-cooled condenser and the water is reused. For this reason, there is absolutely no output of heated wastewater, which is often cited as for power plants. Soot is recovered and together with the incineration ash is detoxified and recycled or sent to its consolidated subsidiary, C&R Co., Ltd. to be used in landfills. Through technology development, the boiler is operated with an internal temperature of over 850 degrees centigrade, and the generation of dioxins is prevented by cooling this to 200 degrees centigrade. Sanix Energy’s Tomakomai Power Station has encountered several problems since 2005 to 2009, and unavoidably temporarily halted operations (see History). However, the plant appears to have overcome these problems and implemented many improvements to increase its power generation capacity. As of October 2013, it was operating smoothly and the company believes it can steadily increase energy output through enhancement of fuel quality and other measures. Factors Affecting Power Generation Earnings The simple formula for calculating sales is volume of power sold multiplied by the unit selling price. The unit price is agreed by negotiation. Main expenses include materials cost (such as landfill and chemicals costs), labor cost and outsourced work cost. Fuel cost is waste plastic processed by other companies in the Sanix Group, meaning there is no fluctuation risk for materials cost. Labor cost may also be assumed as essentially fixed, meaning profits are steady when the plant is operating smoothly. However, since regular inspections and maintenance are necessary, profit is potentially affected if the plant does not operate for the number of days planned or if there is a rise in maintenance costs. In addition, generation efficiency deteriorates based on fuel quality attributable to the mixture of metal and chlorine, leading to a risk of not being able to meet its electricity sales volume target. Termite Control Services and Floor/Ceiling Ventilation Systems Termite control services and floor & ceiling ventilation systems are included in the Home Sanitation (HS) segment and the termite control service is its original business since the company’s founding. The company applies termite eradication agents to the wooden-structured houses of customers and installs ventilation systems. Revenue is derived from the provision of services and construction work, as well as anti-termite agents and other products. At its peak, this business served 400,000 customers, but in October 2013, the company provided after-sales maintenance services to approximately 300,000 existing customers and did not solicit any new business. In July 2006, the company was the subject of administrative sanctions ordered by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) for violations of the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions (see History). Since then, in addition to thorough measures to prevent recurrence of these problems, the company stopped acquiring new customers, and mainly focused on providing after-sales maintenance to existing customers. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 28/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Segment Sales and Profit (million yen) HS segment YoY Termite control services Floor/ceiling ventilation systems Others Operating profit YoY FY03/09 Act. 14,657 -6.6% 5,288 2,549 6,820 3,470 -16.9% FY03/10 Act. 14,056 -4.1% 4,775 2,996 6,285 3,365 -3.0% FY03/11 Act. 16,657 18.5% 4,095 2,568 9,994 2,608 -22.5% FY03/12 Act. 15,395 -7.6% 3,498 2,092 9,805 2,469 -5.3% FY03/13 Act. 14,814 -3.8% 2,690 1,310 10,814 1,776 -28.1% FY03/14 Est. 10,273 -30.7% 3,190 1,323 5,760 2,250 26.7% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Demand for termite control services is on a declining trend. Since termites mainly affect wooden houses, and given that many new houses include concrete foundations and sheet construction methods, the necessary frequency for termite control work has declined. In recent years the incidence of termite infestation has also decreased, and price competition among termite control firms has become intense. Since 2006, sales have continued to decline in the termite control services and floor/ceiling ventilation systems, but it is likely the company will continue this business centering on after-sales maintenance for existing customers. The company has adopted a strategy focusing on the commercial solar power business, which will require an expanded workforce. Consequently, even if sales decrease in the HS segment, staff can be shifted into the commercial solar power business, enabling the company to make effective use of its personnel. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 29/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Strengths, Weaknesses Strengths: Low-priced solar power producer: In the solar power business, the company provides attractive services at low prices based on its system for procuring low-priced components—including those manufactured in-house—and its end-to-end operations covering all aspects from procurement to installation (refer to “Price Competitiveness in the Commercial Solar Power Business”). Niche market player with strong sales know-how: Commercial solar power systems with capacities between 10kW and 50kW—suitable for installation in low-voltage power systems—are too large to be handled by small, local housing equipment installers but are below the size threshold handled by major construction groups. Since the company started out selling termite control services and installing floor/ceiling ventilation systems, it has ample experience in door-to-door sales and a workforce proficient in small- to medium-scale installation projects. Hence the foundations already existed on which the company could build its commercial solar power business focusing on 10kW to 50kW systems ahead of potential competitors. This is also one of the reasons the company is able to gain volume discounts when procuring solar power modules (refer to “Price Competitiveness in the Commercial Solar Power Business”). Stable earnings source: The waste plastic processing business, once a customer enters a service contract, the probability of the customer changing service providers is quite low. In addition, stable operations in the power generation business have enabled the company to secure sales and profits. The company has a stable source profits from its Environmental Resource Development segment. Weaknesses Management culture that historically tended to incorrectly discount risk: Sanix’s earnings slumped for 10 years after peaking in FY03/02. One of the causes of this slump was a full-scale entry into the power generation business in FY03, which involved capital investment of 12.0 billion yen—an amount greater than the entire operating profit at the time. The Environmental Resource Development segment with its power generation business, lost money every year till FY03/11 (see “Segment Breakdown”). SR Inc. feels that while the company is prone to move aggressively, in hindsight it often underestimated the risks, both to its reputation and bottom line. The Sanix’s new focus is the commercial PV business. The company has been allocating a large portion of its existing resources to this business as well as aggressively adding staff. While this expansion does look to SR Inc. as an astute move to meet demand in a growing market and secure a first-mover advantage, it may also indicate that the management attitude to risk has not changed. Organizational Structure Concentrated in Western Japan: Its sales offices and personnel in the CPS segment are heavily concentrated in western Japan. The company has a wholesale business in eastern Japan, but does not have noticeable business presence in sales and installation of solar power systems in this area. It operates 63 sales offices in western Japan, but only has six sales offices in eastern Japan. On the other hand, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecasts 22.7 million households in western Japan (including Aichi and Gifu prefectures), while the number of households in eastern Japan are expected to be much larger at 27.9 million households in 2015. The company does not appear to be expanding its business in eastern Japan, capturing on the potential household expansion amidst a growing solar power market. Sustainable cost competitiveness: SR Inc. believes that Sanix’s The company’s competitive advantage in solar power business is providing both sales and installation, focused on solar power generating system of less than 50kW. The company has developed a system where it can provide a stable volume of orders to solar power generating equipment makers by bundling small lot orders together and offer competitive low prices. On the other hand, Sanix’s strategy is based on being cost competitive, and consequently, may lose its competitiveness if competitors and new entrants with http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 30/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 greater financial strength, initiates a low-priced strategy with a disregard for profits in the short term. In addition, the company’s cost competitiveness is not based on commanding an overwhelming market share through production volume, and this low-price strategy may be imitated by competitors. Going forward, it is likely that a competitor can initiate the company’s business model, and when that happens, the company may loss its low-price competitive advantage. Group Companies The The Sanix Group comprises of the parent company and 10 consolidated subsidiaries. main subsidiaries are listed below (shareholding ratio in parentheses). Sanix Engineering Inc. (100%): sales and Installation of commercial PV systems Shanri (Shanghai) Energy Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (100%): Manufacture of PV modules Sanix Energy Inc. (97.9%): Purchasing of processed plastic fuel (processed by the parent company for use in its power station), and sales of the electricity http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 31/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Market and Value Chain Market Overview The Solar Power Market The solar power market has a significant impact on the company’s earnings. The following is an overview of Japan’s solar power market, promotion policies, and feed-in tariff (FIT) schemes. Outlook for Japan’s Solar Power Market Driven by such issues as global warming and rises in the price of crude oil in recent years, clean energy sources are capturing significant attention as an alternative to fossil fuels. Nuclear power is one field that has attracted much interest, but from a safety perspective it fails to live up to the “clean energy” label. One of the most promising up-and-coming energy fields is photovoltaic (PV) power generation, sometimes simply referred to as solar power. Solar power generation uses solar cells to convert sunlight to electrical energy, and does not result in any CO2 emissions. Underpinned by government policies promoting the spread of solar power systems in Japan, the amount of solar power system installations is rising annually. According to the solar power roadmap published by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), by 2020 the Japanese government is targeting solar power capacity 20 times that of 2005 (29 GW), and 40 times (53 GW) by 2030. If the target for 2030 is met, it will be equivalent to approximately 10% of Japan’s total generating capacity. NEDO is an incorporated administrative agency (affiliated with METI) that aims to contribute to solving energy and environmental problems as well as the enhancement of Japan’s competitiveness in industrial technology. To realize these goals, NEDO promotes collaboration among the public, private and academic sectors and utilizes an international network. According to METI, in FY03/13 solar power generation accounted for just 0.4% of total electricity generated in Japan. In FY03/12, solar power generation was just 0.2% of the total. According to Fuji-Keizai Group, annual market for solar power modules in Japan in 2030 is forecast to be 3.4 times the size of the market in 2012 on the basis of capacity of modules shipped, and 1.5 times the size on a module-value basis. This translates to a robust long-term annual average growth rate of around 13% on a module-capacity basis, but on a value basis the forecast long-term growth rate falls to around 3% due to an anticipated downward trend in the prices of raw materials as well as peripheral and manufacturing equipment. Domestic Solar Power Market (capacity of solar power modules shipped) 2011 Total Capacity Residential Commercial 2012 Est. 2030 Forecast Change 2030/2012 1,450MW 2,500MW 8,500MW 340% 1,200MW 1,500MW 5,000MW 333% 250MW 1,000MW 3,500MW 350% 220 billion yen 250 billion yen 380 billion yen 152% Source: Fuji Keizai data, SR Inc. Research In the shorter term, according to HIS Inc. of the United States, driven by the FIT scheme, new solar http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 32/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 power installations in Japan in 2013 are forecast to expand 2.2 times compared with 2012, to 5.3 million kW. The combined value of equipment sales and installation costs gives an estimated market size of 19.8 billion dollars (approximately 1,910 billion yen), which would put Japan ahead of Germany as the world’s largest market. Policies to Promote Solar Power in Japan In the past, as a policy to promote the spread of renewable energy, electricity companies voluntarily purchased power; the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Law and subsidy programs at the local government level were also utilized. Based on these initiatives, by 2004 Japan installed the most solar power cells in the World. However, after the subsidy program operated by the New Energy Foundation was terminated in 2005, the domestic market shrank. Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Law is the abbreviated name for a law enacted in Japan in June 2002—the Special Measures Law concerning the Use of New Forms of Energy, etc. by the Electric Power Industry. The law was designed to promote the use of new energy by mandating minimum usage volumes for electricity derived from new energy sources by electrical utilities. For this reason, based on an urgent proposal in January 2009, METI reinstated a subsidy program. In February 2009, the Ministry of the Environment also announced estimates for the cost and economic benefits of adopting renewable energy sources. As a promotion measure, the ministry proposed a feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme, which subsequently commenced in November 2009 covering surplus power generated by households. Following that, the Act on Special Measures Concerning Procurement of Renewable Electric Energy by Operators of Electric Utilities (often abbreviated to “FIT Act”) was enacted in August 2011 and implemented in July 2012, and became fully eligible for the FIT scheme. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Scheme Under the FIT scheme, to promote the use of renewables, electric utilities are fundamentally required to purchase all the power generated by five types of renewable energy sources, including solar and wind. Solar power was popular in Spain and Germany attributable to the introduction of a similar system. A high tariff is designed to stimulate the development of renewables. As of October 2013, surplus power produced from solar power generated from less than 10kW systems are bought, while all the power generated from solar power generated from systems over 10kW are bought under the FIT scheme. For less than 10kW solar power generated systems, the FIT scheme is applied, and surplus solar power generated by household are sold to electric utility companies. When the scheme was launched in 2009, the feed-in tariff for surplus power was 48 yen/kWh. The tariff remains fixed for 10 years from installation of the solar power system. The scheme envisages annually lowering the tariff for newly installed generation capacity. As of October 2013, the FIT for new installations was 38 yen/kWh (including tax). Separate from the surplus power FIT scheme, which is sometimes called “net metering,” a different scheme covering all power generated by a renewable electricity producer has also been established. This scheme enables producers to sell all power generated regardless of their own consumption. In Japan, an FIT scheme for over 10kW capacity was launched on July 1, 2012, while the surplus power FIT scheme for 10kW less capacity producers remained in place. The tariff and purchase period set under the FIT schemes are set each year by the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry prior to the commencement of the fiscal year. The minister is required to take into account the opinions of a neutral, third-party committee (Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee), which http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 33/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 conducts public deliberations. To promote the growth of solar power, supplementary provisions in the law also require power producer profits to be taken into consideration when determining the feed-in tariff for three years from the commencement of the scheme. The cost of purchasing power is recouped by utilities as an extra amount on electricity charges. However, when the minister sets the feed-in tariff, he or she is required to ensure that the extra charge is not an excessive burden on electricity users. In the case of solar power, the FIT for commercial solar power systems with a capacity of 10kW or more in FY03/13 was 42 yen/kWh (including tax), but in FY03/14 this was reduced to 37.8 yen/kWh (including tax). The Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee proposal took into account a range of conditions, and set a level that would allow producers to achieve a 6% IRR. This was in line with the law, which provides for higher returns in the scheme’s first three years, meaning IRR is set 1-2% higher than normal. The Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee proposal for the over 10kW FIT is formulated using assumptions for a mega-solar business model, and the IRR calculations include various running costs, such as rent and labor costs. In the case of a producer that has installed a PV system with a 10-50kW capacity on idle land, no actual rent or labor costs are incurred. Hence, if the PV system can be installed at low cost, it is possible to obtain profits at a much higher level than the Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee’s IRR model. Proposal for FY03/14 by the Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee Solar power (10kW or more) FIT Capital Cost Running Cost FY03/13 FY03/14 Price before tax 40.0 yen 36.0 yen Price after tax 42.0 yen 37.8 yen System Unit Cost 325,000 yen/kW 280,000 yen/kW Land Modification Cost 1,500 yen/kW 1,500 yen/kW Land Leasing Fees 150 yen/sq.m. per annum 150 yen/sq.m per annum Maintenance Cost 1.6%/year of construction cost 1.6%/year of construction cost General Expense 14%/year of maintenance cost 14%/year of maintenance cost Labor Expense 3.0 million per annum 3.0 million per annum 6.0%(before tax) 6.0%(before tax) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Source: Feed-in Tariff Calculation Committee, SR Inc. Research As of October 2013, Sanix charges approximately 270,000 yen per kW for the solar power systems it installs. At this price, based on various assumptions, system owners have a potential IRR of around 8%. At this price, the company’s commercial solar power business forecasts an operating profit ratio of around 15% in FY03/14. In FY03/16, after the FIT law’s initial three-year period mandating higher producer returns expires, even if the FIT is set at a level to give an assumed IRR of 4%, it will still be possible for Sanix to offer solar power system buyers attractive prices. This assumption is based on price reductions by Sanix made possible by cost reductions for peripheral equipment and other items as well as a slightly reduced profit margin. Hence, the company is likely to be able to avoid a drastic fall in sales. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 34/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Potential Solar Energy “Bubble”? It is necessary to mention the bubble in Spain caused by the feed-in tariffs (FIT) when considering the potential risks for solar power demand. In 2007, a solar power bubble occurred in Spain as the purchase price of power was significantly increased in order to promote the use of solar power. Subsequently, Spain’s government changed its policy for solar energy such as the lowering of purchase price, setting a purchase ceiling, establishing a purchase price limit, shortening the purchase time period, and eliminating subsidies, including retroactive subsidiaries, resulted in a significant decline in the number of solar power users. In 2001, the European Union (EU) adopted a directive for the purpose of promoting renewable energy, and Spain issued new measures in 2004 and 2007 for the significant increase in usage of renewable energy. Measures introduced in 2007, focused on the purchase period for feed-in tariffs (FIT) was set at 25 years, the purchase price was set at an IRR of 17%, and the annual purchased volume of solar power was increased to 2,708 MW in 2008 from 102MW in 2006. As a result, generating capacity of solar power significantly surpassed the government’s target, and consequently, led to transmission companies suffering significant losses, and forced the government to reduce the fixed rate for solar power in September 2008. In 2009, the bubble burst for Spain’s solar power market, with new installations collapsing to a mere 17 MW. Japan’s feed-in tariffs (FIT) scheme is set at a ration level with the purchase period for FIT set at 20 years, and the purchase price set at an IRR of around 6%, a significant difference from the excessive measures of Spain’s solar power policies. Even taking into account a possible reduction in the purchase price for the FIT scheme, which is required following the third year since implementation in 2015, demand for solar power in Japan does not appear likely to experience a similar decline as in Spain. In Germany, the government introduced the Renewable Energy Law to develop its solar power market in 2000. Under this system, the electric utility companies are required to purchase all of the solar power produced at a fixed price for 20 years. Consequently, solar power equipment achieved strong growth, and installed capacity was the highest in the world in 2005. A large amount of equipment continued to be installed, and reached 31% of the cumulative total volume or approximately 32GW of the worldwide amount for 2012, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association. The installed volume reached 7GW per annum during the three year period from 2010 to 2012. However, electricity prices increased sharply attributable to the promotion of solar power, and consequently, the German government significantly revised its purchase price in June 2012 due to the large burden placed on its citizens. Germany’s Federal Ministry of the Environment stated that it expects purchased volume to be reduced between 2.5 GW to 3.5 GW due to the reduction in the purchase in 2013. Barriers to Entry There appears to be an oversupply of PV modules and earnings opportunities may be limited, as evident with the bankruptcy of Suntech Power of China in March 2013. Unless a maker has the proper sales channels, it is extremely difficult to turn a profit in the solar power industry. It is possible that a local home builder could go into the solar power business tomorrow. However, given that Sanix (involved in the whole process from manufacturing to sales, to installation and maintenance), has already achieved low prices of sources, generated some brand equity, and gained scale to leverage advertising costs, new entrants may find it difficult to compete with the company. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 35/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Significant capital investment and operating know-how are required in the plastic waste recycling business. Consequently, given the additional capital investment and know-how needed post-recycling, there appears to be little merits for a new company to enter into this business field. Strategy The Sanix’s corporate mission since its founding has been “To Make the Dirty Clean” and has been focused on businesses where a few others would fear to tread. The company has gained valuable know-how and competitive advantage in being the first mover. An example of this ability was the company’s termite control services that developed into a substantial business and continued to grow until FY03/02. After the company was ordered by regulatory authorities to suspend operations for three months in its termite control services and floor/ceiling ventilation systems operations, Sanix’s management made the decision to stop soliciting new business for good and focused on providing maintenance services to existing customers only. Facing declining sales, the company reduced headcount and started searching for the next business opportunity. Since 2009, Sanix looked at solar power as its next frontier and consequently changed the business focus. The company believes that the solar power business allows it to leverage its original strengths. For instance, it has experience in technically complex sales and installation work (in the termite control business the company would install building ventilation systems reducing dampness) and that translates well into solar installation sales and setup. The company’s know how is in working with individuals and small businesses and that prompted the focus on small scale solar installations (under 50KW). That helps to avoid lengthy and expensive approval processes and generates stable but sizeable flow of business, in turn leading to increased bargaining power vis-à-vis panel and equipment suppliers. Sanix shifted its entire focus to commercial solar power business in 2012. According to company, to respond to booming demand it quickly created a new organizational structure capable of handling large volume procurement, sales, and installation of solar power systems. The company believes this initiative gave it a competitive advantage over the peer group both in terms of pricing and installation capacity, while also allowing to learn about and seamlessly implement best practices. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 36/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Historical Performance FY03/13 Results Sales were 43.4 billion yen (+37.9% YoY), operating profit 1.9 billion yen (+356.4% YoY), recurring profit 1.8 billion yen (+414.1% YoY), and net income 1.6 billion yen (net income of 13 million in FY03/12). Sales in the Commercial Photovoltaic Solutions segment jumped 581.6% YoY to 9.6 billion yen, boosted by the full-fledged launch of installation of commercial solar power systems during the fiscal year. Sales in the Home Sanitation segment declined 3.8% YoY to 14.8 billion yen, mainly attributable to a decline in sales of termite control services, affected by a reduction in personnel due to an organizational change, despite an increase in sales of residential solar power systems. Sales in the Establishment Sanitation segment increased 43.8% YoY to 4.0 billion yen, supported by favorable demand for PV systems from commercial users such buildings and condominiums operators. Sales in the Environmental Resources Development segment grew 25.9% YoY to 15.0 billion yen, attributable to increased waste volume leading to a rise in plastic fuel revenues, coupled with enhanced generation efficiency at its Tomakomai Power Station, contributing to higher sales of power generation. As a result, consolidated sales totaled 43.4 billion yen (+37.9% YoY). Sanix increased adverting on commercial solar power systems to stimulate demand, given the implementation of the renewable energy feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme, and improved sales structure and installation process. As a result, the Commercial Photovoltaic Solutions segment became profitable during the term. Home Sanitation segment profit declined mainly attributable to a decline in sales of termite control services, affected by a reduction in personnel due to an organizational change, and a shift to commercial solar power. Profit in Establishment Sanitation segment increased due to a rise in sales. A rise in revenues from plastic fuel and power generation, together with cost reductions, contributed to a significant profit increase in the Environment Resource Development segment. As a result, consolidated operating profit was 1.9 billion yen (+356.4% YoY), recurring profit was 1.8 billion yen (+414.1% YoY), and net income was 1.6 billion yen (net profit of 13 million yen for the previous year). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 37/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Income Statement Income Statement (million yen) Total Sales YoY CoGS Gross Profit FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Est. 25,234 24,539 28,980 31,454 43,366 84,500 -4.8% -2.8% 18.1% 8.5% 37.9% 94.9% 14,675 14,621 18,704 21,013 29,996 10,559 9,918 10,276 10,442 13,370 YoY -9.8% -6.1% 3.6% 1.6% 28.0% Gross Profit Margin 41.8% 40.4% 35.5% 33.2% 30.8% SG&A SG&A/Sales ratio Operating Profit YoY 11,155 9,528 9,774 10,032 11,500 44.2% 38.8% 33.7% 31.9% 26.5% -597 390 502 410 1,870 6,300 - - 28.6% -18.3% 356.4% 236.8% -2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 4.3% 7.5% Non-Operating Income 122 124 126 133 138 Non-Operating Expenses 146 290 198 195 219 -620 225 430 348 1,789 6,000 - - 91.2% -19.1% 414.1% 235.4% -2.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 4.1% 7.1% 613 162 75 4 143 3,995 3,779 153 10 19 136 283 302 329 337 -3.4% -8.3% 85.8% 96.3% 17.6% -4,145 -3,676 50 14 1,575 3,600 - - - -71.8% - 128.6% -16.4% -15.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 4.3% Operating Profit Margin Recurring Profit YoY Recurring Profit Margin Extraordinary Gains Extraordinary Losses Tax Charges Implied Tax Rate Net Income YoY Net Margin Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company Data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 38/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Segment Sales and Profit (million yen) Sales YoY Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution YoY Composition Commercial PV systems Wholesale of PV components Home Sanitation YoY Composition PV systems Termite control services Floor/ceiling ventilation systems Foundation repairing treatment Others Establishment Sanitation YoY Composition Environmental Resources Development YoY Composition Waste plastic recycled Power generation Organic waste water recycled Final disposal Others Operating Profit YoY Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution Home Sanitation Establishment Sanitation Environmental Resources Development FY03/04 FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 43,987 -12.7% 28,059 -19.2% 63.8% 10,990 9,015 4,064 3,990 7,191 -11.1% 16.3% 8,737 15.5% 19.9% 4,995 874 1,419 1,449 -4,699 3,093 -257 -4,047 44,084 0.2% 26,841 -4.3% 60.9% 10,407 8,564 3,972 3,898 6,934 -3.6% 15.7% 10,309 18.0% 23.4% 5,392 1,734 1,954 1,229 45 5,072 558 -2,428 36,510 -17.2% 20,905 -22.1% 57.3% 8,842 6,447 2,364 3,252 5,406 -22.0% 14.8% 10,198 -1.1% 27.9% 5,988 1,002 2,201 1,005 -3,383 1,552 -261 -1,601 28,908 -20.8% 15,205 -27.3% 52.6% 7,083 4,352 1,395 2,374 4,091 -24.3% 14.2% 9,612 -5.7% 33.3% 5,064 1,138 2,106 1,302 -1,568 1,992 -211 -914 26,511 -8.3% 15,691 3.2% 59.2% 5,023 1,902 7,388 1,378 3,341 -18.3% 12.6% 7,479 -22.2% 28.2% 3,777 769 1,889 422 596 4,176 -202 -1,269 25,234 -4.8% 14,657 -6.6% 58.1% 5,288 2,549 4,374 2,033 2,976 -10.9% 11.8% 7,600 1.6% 30.1% 3,603 1,550 1,833 611 -597 3,470 -90 -1,818 24,539 -2.8% 14,056 -4.1% 57.3% 1,086 4,775 2,996 2,977 2,219 2,547 -14.4% 10.4% 7,934 4.4% 32.3% 4,295 1,276 1,474 415 472 390 3,365 211 -1,112 28,980 18.1% 16,657 18.5% 57.5% 5,261 4,095 2,568 2,110 2,620 2,811 10.4% 9.7% 9,511 19.9% 32.8% 5,023 1,427 1,444 939 676 502 28.6% 2,608 154 -216 31,454 8.5% 1,411 4.5% 1,411 15,395 -7.6% 48.9% 5,031 3,498 2,092 1,614 3,158 2,757 -1.9% 8.8% 11,890 25.0% 37.8% 6,673 2,303 1,595 706 611 410 -18.3% -265 2,482 41 288 43,366 37.9% 9,617 581.6% 22.2% 6,073 3,544 14,814 -3.8% 34.2% 7,683 2,690 1,310 831 2,298 3,965 43.8% 9.1% 14,967 25.9% 34.5% 8,665 3,370 1,602 607 722 1,870 356.4% 320 1,776 139 1,568 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Operating profit peaked in FY03/02, and has been on a declining trend for the past ten years, mainly due to deterioration in the Home Sanitation segment, and continued operating losses in the Environmental Resources Development. Past Earnings of the Home Sanitation (HS) Segment The industry was marred by a crackdown on fraudulent inspection methods and prosecutions of unscrupulous operators since 2002. Segment operating profit peaked in FY03/02 at 13.9 billion yen, and declined for two straight fiscal years, recording an operating profit of 3.1 billion yen in FY03/04. Operating profit temporarily recovered in FY03/05 due to restructuring and measures to improve operating efficiencies. In July 2005, following media reporting on widespread scams involving fraudulent home renovation operators, the issue grew into a social problem. The negative attention impacted the segment performance for Sanix with operating profit falling to under 1.6 billion yen in FY03/06. In July 2006, the company faced administrative sanctions from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) based on the Specified Commercial Transactions Act, which included a three-month suspension of operations at six stores. In the aftermath of the sanctions that threatened the very existence of the company, Sanix reviewed its compliance system, and changed its organization to prevent any incidents from recurring. Furthermore, the company cut costs by closing sales offices, reducing workforce, and cutting compensation for remaining staff. That lowered the break-even point but segment operating profit stagnated at roughly 2.0 billion yen in FY03/07. In FY03/08, earnings bottomed as new services such as foundation repairs and reinforcement, and full effect from previous cost reductions helped profitability. However, segment operating profit declined again in FY03/09 as the company stopped soliciting new high-margin termite control business and instead focused on maintenance for existing customers. In FY03/10, the company began selling residential solar power systems in this segment (photovoltaic installations were made a separate segment from FY03/11). This helped to partially offset the decline in http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 39/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 segment sales but negatively impacted profit margins due to start-up costs and initially low profitability of the new business. In FY03/13, segment operating profit declined to 1.8 billion yen as Sanix continued to deemphasize the former core business, focusing entirely on maintenance for the gradually shrinking base of existing clients. Past Earnings of Environmental Resources Development (ERD) Segment The Environmental Resources Development segment remained unprofitable till FY03/11. In FY03/01, the company invested 11.3 billion yen in its power generation operations focusing on recycled plastic fuel. Upfront development costs related to the Tomakomai Power Station, expenses related to trial runs, and increase in depreciation expense caused segment operating loss to expand to a record level of 4.0 billion yen in FY03/04. The Tomakomai Power Station was completed in October 2003. Operating losses started to improve from FY03/05 to FY03/07. The company gradually increased power generation and sales volume, and improved the quality of plastic fuel. In addition, it wrote off 9.6 billion yen for impairment losses in FY03/05, which contributed to a significant reduction in depreciation expense (a 1.7 billion yen decline in FY03/06 compared to FY03/05), and also resulted in significant reduction in operating losses. On the other hand, a fire at the Tomakomai Power Station caused the plant to suspended operations for several months during FY03/06, and trouble continued as the plant suffered another fire in Q4 FY03/07. In FY03/08, together with safety measures taken following the fire in Q4 FY03/07, the plant suspended operations again in November 2007 after flue gas concentration exceeded the level specified in the plant’s pollution prevention agreement. As a result of these plant suspensions, the company restrained its volume of waste plastic to avoid a build-up of fuel inventories, which contributed to a decline in revenues for power generation and plastic processing services. Consequently, segment operating losses once again expanded. In FY03/09, despite an improvement in plant operations on back of the plant suspension caused by the fire in FY03/08, and a doubling of power generation revenue related to an increase in unit price attributable to a change in end-user, operating losses in this segment further expanded due to an increase in personnel expense attributable to strengthening of headcount in anticipation of increased waste plastic processing volume, coupled with added expenses related to chemical treatment agents used in organic waste water recycling plants. Power generation revenues declined due to a reduction in unit prices attributed to sluggish electricity demand related to production adjustments from manufacturer during FY03/10. However, a change in end-user in FY03/11, power generation revenues significantly increased due to improved utilization rates from stable operations, and increase in unit selling prices. Furthermore, volume in waste plastic operations expanded favorably during this period, and together with cost reductions and improvement in production, the Environmental Resources Development segment achieved an operating profit in FY03/12. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 40/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Company Forecasts versus Actual Results Initial CE vs. Results FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 Cons . Cons . Cons . Cons . Cons . Sales (initial CE) Sales (actual) 29,297 25,234 25,000 24,539 27,500 28,980 38,000 31,454 38,000 43,366 Initial CE vs. Results -13.9% -1.8% 5.4% -17.2% 14.1% 1,922 750 1,240 1,300 2,000 -597 - 390 -48.0% 502 -59.5% 410 -68.5% 1,870 -6.5% 1,882 720 1,150 1,250 1,970 -620 225 430 348 1,789 Initial CE vs. Results Net Profit (initial CE) 1,680 -68.8% 600 -62.6% 900 -72.2% 830 -9.2% 1,820 Net Profit (actual) -4,145 -3,676 50 14 1,575 - - -94.5% -98.3% -13.5% (million yen) Operating Profit (initial CE) Operating Profit (actual) Initial CE vs. Results Recurring Profit (initial CE) Recurring Profit (actual) Initial CE vs. Results CE=Company estimate; figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Past trends show a significant difference between the company’s forecasts and actual results. Management’s earnings forecasts are unreliable and frequently revised several times a year. In addition, its actual results are significantly different than revised earnings forecast. This can be attributed to the company’s inability to accurately forecast sales and profits in solar power systems, due to its lack of experience in the business, and the unpredictability of power generation operations, which often incurs significant unexpected expenses such sudden rises costs. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 41/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Balance Sheet Balance Sheet FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cash and Equivalents 1,065 1,255 1,138 1,366 3,559 Accounts Receivable 1,678 2,056 2,521 3,309 7,357 Inventories 617 1,221 1,642 1,767 2,898 Deferred Tax Assets 111 288 299 245 299 Other Current Assets 423 334 290 278 539 Total Current Assets (million yen) ASSETS 3,895 5,153 5,890 6,964 14,652 Buildings 9,515 9,420 9,705 9,738 9,706 Acc. Depreciation 6,474 7,171 7,445 7,647 7,815 Equipment, Plant 13,210 11,662 11,710 11,769 11,982 Acc. Depreciation 10,717 11,500 11,565 11,529 11,424 9,535 8,980 8,980 8,980 8,890 15,328 11,828 11,763 11,724 12,326 Land Total Tangible Fixed Assets Investments 369 367 405 501 317 1,070 960 820 781 706 20 318 233 129 96 112 345 385 391 415 1,570 1,991 1,843 1,802 1,533 77 1,023 910 796 685 Total Fixed Assets 16,975 14,843 14,516 14,322 14,545 Total Assets 20,869 19,996 20,407 21,286 29,196 Deposits Made Deferred Tax Assets Other Total Other Fixed Assets Total Intangible Assets LIABILITIES Accounts Payable 530 1,159 868 1,386 5,460 5,316 5,345 2,425 2,325 3,338 19 309 761 760 848 Other Current Liabilities 2,671 2,529 2,907 3,910 5,227 Total Current Liabilities Short Term Debt Current Portion of Long Term Debt 8,536 9,342 6,961 8,381 14,873 Long Term Debt 16 1,726 4,319 3,560 2,820 Corporate Bonds - - - 70 50 Other Fixed Liabilities Total Long Term Liabilities Total Liabilities 1,587 1,873 2,024 2,141 2,616 1,603 3,599 6,343 5,770 5,486 10,139 12,941 13,304 14,151 20,359 14,042 14,042 14,042 14,042 14,042 1,759 - - - - -3,524 -5,441 -5,391 -5,377 -3,733 Shareholder Equity Issued Capital Reserves Retained Earnings Total Shareholder Equity (Net Assets) 10,730 7,055 7,103 7,135 8,837 Working Capital 1,765 2,117 3,296 3,690 4,794 Interest Bearing Debt 5,351 7,380 7,505 6,714 7,056 Net Debt 4,286 6,125 6,367 5,349 3,497 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company Data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 42/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Assets The company’s assets are mostly land and buildings, followed by accounts receivables. Solar power-related operations do not require large amounts of capital expenditures, but additional land may be required for increased capacity at its plastic waste processing facilities and power generation plants. In FY03/13, an increase in accounts receivables was attributed to expansion of operations. Liabilities Interest-bearing debt continued to increase until FY03/10 due to stagnant earnings but, such debt has been on declining trend ever since. Furthermore, the balance of the company short- and long-term interest-bearing debt is well balanced, as the company shifted from overemphasis on short-term debt to taking advantage of longer term interest-bearing debt. Given a recovery in earnings, it can be concluded that company has reduced its financial risk. Net debt (interest-bearing debt minus cash and cash equivalents) significantly improved in FY03/12 and FY03/13. Net Assets Net losses since FY03/03 continued to negatively impact net assets until FY03/10. Net assets have been on a gradual recovery since FY03/11 due to an improvement in earnings. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 43/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. -89 563 55 1,260 2,185 (million yen) Operating Cash Flow (1) Investment Cash Flow (2) Free Cash Flow (1+2) Financial Cash Flow Depreciation & Amortization (A) Capital Expenditures (B) Working Capital Changes (C) Simple FCF (NI + A + B - C) 815 -2,304 -214 -151 -222 726 -1,741 -159 1,109 1,962 -696 1,946 43 -882 230 910 583 416 371 387 -358 -472 -176 -93 -616 -219 352 1,178 394 1,105 -3,374 -3,917 -889 -102 241 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Operating Cash Flow Operating cash flow is largely influenced by changes in its pretax income. However, given that pretax income is largely impacted by its sales, these changes are partially offset by the increase or decrease of its working capital. Investment Cash Flow Tangible fixed assets impact the company’s investment cash flow. Its solar power-related operations do not require large amounts of capital expenditures, but additional capacity at its plastic waste recycling facilities and power generation plants may necessitate a temporary increase in capital investment. Total investment for its Tomakomai Power Station surpassed 12.0 billion yen. Financial Cash Flow Free cash flow has been on an improving given the earnings recovery. The company forecasts a significant improvement in net income for FY03/14. From FY03/14, capital expenditures should be kept within free cash flow, barring a large decline in earnings, and a portion of free cash flow used to reduce interest-bearing debt. It is appropriate to expect that financial cash flow will remain negative. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 44/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Other Information History Sanix Inc. was established in April 1975 in Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture, to provide termite control and corrosion-proof services to home owners. Shinichi Munemasa, the founder and current president saw a business opportunity in “dirty jobs”, work that most people wouldn’t want to do. His mission became “To Make the Dirty Clean.” Munemasa took upon himself to visit the U.S. and receive the necessary job training to expand his business. In 1982, Sanix established a foothold in western (Kansai) Japan, and expanded to eastern (Kanto) Japan in 1992. In the 1990s, the company sought to branch out into new business fields and expand operations. In 1994, Sanix started operations to recycle and reduce industrial waste, as well as render such waste harmless. In 1999, it established a factory in Okazaki City, Aichi Prefecture, to process plastic waste into fuel. Sanix listed its shares on the second sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Stock Exchange and Fukuoka Stock Exchange, respectively, in 1997. Its shares advanced to the first sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Osaka Securities Exchange, respectively, in 1999. The company continued to expand in the early 2000s, and established Sanix Energy Inc. (currently a consolidated subsidiary) to sell generated power from plastic fuel in 2001. In 2003, Sanix Energy completed the construction of the Sanix Energy Tomakomai Power Station, in Tomakomai City, Hokkaido. When discussing the company’s history, a business suspension order (also discussed elsewhere in this report) in 2006 must be mentioned. In July 2006, the company received administrative sanctions from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) for violations of the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions (a misrepresentation, failure to clearly state the purpose of solicitation, forceful solicitation, act of taking advantage of the impaired judgment of a person and having such person conclude a sales contract, violation of the principle of suitability). The sanctions were imposed after the company was found to have pressed insistently to obtain contracts during door-to-door sales. Under the guise of a free-of-charge check, sales staff reported to householders that there were problems that required addressing when in fact no such problems existed. Such cases were said to include contracts signed with incapacitated individuals (dementia and schizophrenia sufferers). As a preventive measure, the company stopped new sales of termite control and floor-ceiling ventilation systems, and introduced a new business structure to only satisfied requests from existing customers. As a result, the company has not encountered any such similar problem has not occurred. At the same time, the company encountered several problems at Tomakomai power plant from 2005 to 2009 as follows. In August 2005, there was a fire in a waste plastic fuel delivery tank. In FY03/07, there was a fire, and operation of the plant was suspended until June to enable extra fire prevention systems to be installed and management to be strengthened. For approximately two weeks in November 2007, operations were suspended after flue gas concentration exceeded the level specified in the plant’s pollution prevention agreement. In 2009, the plant voluntarily suspended operations after dioxins were detected in the soot and smoke from two power-generating boilers at levels exceeding the plant’s pollution control rules. Regulators ordered the plant to rectify the problem. After the administrative sanctions by the METI, Sanix scaled back its termite termination operations, while its power generation business was operating at a loss. Unable to find new business opportunities, earnings struggled until FY03/09. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 45/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 In 2009, the company began selling solar power systems to residential customers as the government established a system in which excess power could be sold back to the electric power companies, as well as an increasing awareness of protecting the environment. In fact, the company’s involvement in the solar power business goes back 25 years earlier, when it started to install solar panels for individual homes as a power source for under the floor ventilation systems. By the time the company began full-scale solar power operations in 2009, it had already installed solar power related systems (ventilation system) to approximately 320,000 homes. Sanix began wholesale operations in January 2010, and started selling solar power systems to multiple housing complexes such as apartment buildings and condominiums in July of that year. In July 2012, the company began providing solar power for commercial uses following the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) scheme for 10kW or more solar power systems, as well as offering solar power systems for the commercial sector. In 2010, the company established a company in Shanghai to produce solar cell modules. Sanix Engineering was established in 2012 as a wholly owned subsidiary to full provide support for the commercial solar power business, in addition to offering consulting services, and design, sales, installation and manufacture of solar power systems for the commercial sectors. As of August 2013, the company’s main focus was on commercial solar power business. News & Topics November 2013 On November 12, 2013, the company announced revisions to its 1H FY03/14 forecasts. Company forecasts for 1H FY03/14 Sales: 31.7 billion yen (Previous forecast: 34.1 billion yen) Operating profit: 1.5 billion yen (2.8 billion yen) Recurring profit: 1.5 billion yen (2.8 billion yen) Net income: 1.1 billion yen (1.7 billion yen) According to the company, in the Commercial Photovoltaic (PV) Solution (CPS) segment, the commencement of system installation in several commercial PV projects has been pushed back into 2H FY03/14. This delay is attributable to technical investigations related to connection to the electrical utility’s power transmission grid requiring a greater number of days than initially estimated. Consequently, the company revised its 1H sales forecast downward. Operating profit, recurring profit and net income forecasts have also been reduced, reflecting the lower sales forecast. The company maintained its full-year forecasts for FY03/14. On the same day, the company made announcements regarding inappropriate accounting procedures in Q1 FY03/14 and the restatement of Q1 earnings results. According to the company, the results of an internal company investigation into the booking of a fictitious sales transaction at consolidated subsidiary Sanix Engineering Inc. in relation to a commercial PV system were as follows. With regard to a single installation project for a commercial PV system (capacity over 10kW), for which http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 46/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 a sales transaction was booked in May 2013, the shipped materials were found to be stored in a nearby leased warehouse. Despite the installation not being carried out, a sales transaction of approximately 100 million yen was booked for the project. The sales amount for one further commercial PV system installation project (capacity over 10kW) that should have been booked in July was found to have been booked in June. The amount in question was 84 million yen. For 12 projects, it was found that although installation was largely completed, some of the components necessary for completion of the project were not yet installed. Hence, these sales should have been booked in July rather than June. The amount in question was 89 million yen. In accordance with the results of this investigation, the company restated its earnings results for Q1 FY03/14 as follows. Sales: 15.8 billion yen (16.0 billion yen prior to restatement) Operating profit: 965 million yen (1.1 billion yen) Recurring profit: 924 million yen (1.0 billion yen) Net income: 778 million yen (830 million yen) The company said that it is implementing a range of measures to prevent recurrence of such incidents in the future. These measures include improvements in internal controls relating to procedures used for the booking of sales; strengthening of organizational control systems; and improvement of compliance awareness at subsidiaries and strict enforcement of internal rules. On November 7, 2013, the company released a statement regarding fraudulent activity by an employee at its subsidiary. The company discovered that a single employee at its consolidated subsidiary was involved in a fictitious transaction related to the installation of a commercial solar power system in May 2013. The supposedly shipped materials for a commercial solar power system were found at an unrelated warehouse, thus causing alarm that the recorded sale was fictitious. According to the company, the impact from this incident on FY03/14 earnings is still unclear. However, the company forecast that the impact on sales for Q1 FY03/14 will be around 100 million yen, while the impact on operating profit, recurring profit and net profit will be around 50 million yen, respectively. The Sanix group will continue to investigate other contracted orders conducted by its consolidated subsidiaries, as well as work to determine the cause and implement appropriate measures to prevent such a recurrence, and disclosure its findings at the appropriate time. Top Management President Shinichi Munemasa is forward thinking and proactive, having gone to the United States alone to receive training and learn management skills at the time of establishing the company. Mr. Munemasa has a knack for recognizing business trends and put thought into action, having started residential solar power services in 2009, and then shifting to commercial solar power in 2012. Mr. Munemasa created Sanix Sports Foundation from the profits derived after taking Sanix public, and established Global Arena in hopes of promoting youth development in Fukuoka, Japan. Global Arena is a comprehensive sports facility that can accommodate 2,000 people, and is a place where children can go to enrich themselves. The facility can handle world tournaments for soccer and rugby, and may be used as a “prep” school for training high school students to become future leaders. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 47/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Major Shareholders Amount Held 17.69% 15.22% Top Shareholders (as of June 30, 2013) BION CO., LTD. Shinichi Munemasa CB Hong Kong Korea Securities Depositary Trade Japan Trustee Services Bank, Ltd. (Trust account) Hiroshi Munemasa The Master Trust Bank of Japan, Ltd. (Trust account) Sanix Employees Stock Account Sanix Mutual Benefit Association Bank of New York GCM Client Account JPRD ISG (FE-AC) 6.48% 4.58% 3.46% 3.07% 2.37% 2.25% 2.22% Nomura PB Nominees Limited Omnibus-Margin (CASHPB) 1.58% Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 48/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 Company Profile Company Name Sanix Incorporated Head Office 2-1-23, Hakata Ekimae Higashi, Hakata-ku, Fukuoka Phone Listed On +81-92-436-8870 Tokyo Stock Exchange 1st Section, Fukuoka Stock Exchange Established Exchange Listing September 12, 1978 Website September 13, 1996 Fiscal Year-End http://sanix.jp/index_e.htm March IR Contact Management and Planning Division IR Web IR Mail IR Phone [email protected] Main Consolidated Segments (% of total sales) +81-92-436-8882 Commercial PV Home Sanitation Establishment Sanitation Environmental Resources Development (as of March 2013) 22.2 34.2 9.1 34.5 % % % % Directors Shares Outstanding (including treasury shares) Shinichi Munemasa, President, Representative Director Hiroshi Munemasa, Vice President 48,919 thousand shares Shareholders Capital (as of March 2013) Kenichi Shimamura, Executive Managing Director 14,042 million yen (as of March 2013) Kenji Kamata, Executive Managing Director Masahiro Shimojo, Executive Managing Director Main Subsidiaries Sanix Energy Incorporated Tetsuya Takano, Managing Director Shanri (Shanghai) Energy Science and Technology Co., Ltd. Michimasa Masuda, Managing Director Kazuya Kinoshita, Managing Director Sanix Engineering Incorporated Kazushi Yamamoto, Managing Director Naoki Kawasaki, Managing Director Kenji Kaneko, Managing Director Yoshikazu Ikegaki, Director Seigou Shuto, Auditor Genichirou Yasui, Outside Auditor Hiroaki Matsuoka, Outside Auditor Others 5 directors Main Banks (as of June 2013) The Nishi-Nippon City Bank, Ltd. Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Employees (consol.) 1,823 The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. Employees (parent) Average age (parent) 1,235 40.5 years Auditors Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC Average salary (parent) 4.4 million yen (as of March 2013) http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 49/50 Sanix Incorporated (4651) SR Research Report 2014/3/10 About Shared Research Inc. 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