Nailing the "impossible" horse / Showdown in

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SHOCK AND AWE
It blew one’s mind. Of a whopping $10.8 million bettors spent on 20-cent tickets on
Gulfstream’s mandatory Rainbow pick 6 last Saturday, only $1,000 in live
tickets remained after the fourth leg. That was mainly because a seemingly
“impossible” 14/1 horse won the third leg. But was he all that impossible?
See “How to nail the impossible horse” below.
WISH THESE GUYS WELL IN LAS VEGAS TODAY
Channel good vibes to the four ASD players above who are in Las Vegas today gunning for first
prize of $600,000 (U.S.) and other prize money in the Horse Player World Series at the Orleans
Hotel Casino that ends on Saturday. They earned the trip by distinguishing themselves with
tournament success at the Downs last year. Len Charney, Jim Roberts and Doug Evans won
tournaments during live racing. Wayne Misko was Handicapper of the Year. The Downs paid for
their airfare for two, hotel, spending money and $2,000 (U.S.) to enter the tournament. A handful
of other Downs players who entered on their own dime will be playing, too, among an expected
700 players.
Bullet briefs . . .
• Showdown in Florida Derby Saturday: Mohaymen vs Niquist!
• A new month begins tomorrow with continuing cash bonuses
• Ka-ching! MacLennan wins kudos for Dubai picks
• Palmer crushes rivals in March Player’s Choice tourney
• Trainer Ardell Sayler to return; asks for 35 stalls
• He jumped fences into three race tracks on way to leading ASD
• DO NOT READ the bottom item until tomorrow
TWO PREP RACES IN KENTUCKY DERBY CONTEST SAT: As the
Kentucky Derby looms ever closer, prep races hit the 100-point level with the
Florida Derby Saturday (plus the 50-point Spiral Stakes). Predict the winner of
each to get closer to winning $100 win/place in the Kentucky Derby. And TWO
DRAWS will be made for a set of two handsome Derby mugs. Last week’s mug
winners in draws: the ever-lucky Jim Roberts and Chuck Whalen. Leaderboard
NO WINNERS IN DUBAI CONTEST: None of you predicted that three of
the 11 U.S. shippers in the Dubai races on Saturday would finish first, second or
third. They were California Chrome (first) and Hoppertunity (third) in the
World Cup and X Y Jet (second) in the Golden Shaheen.
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Win sets
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DO THE
DOWNS
Carryovers
Minimum
wagers list
Click for schedule
Mother's Day! 885-3330 for
brunch or race night buffet
CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE
LAST CHANCE TO PREDICT THE FUTURE! The final three days for your Kentucky
Derby future wagers—both win and exactor tickets—take place tomorrow through Sunday. I’m
thinking Mo Tom who was shut off in the Louisiana Derby might offer good value. What about
some exactor predictions that could result in nice payouts?
Official stations of horse racing.
Click to listen
RAINBOW PICK 6
How to nail . . .
. . . THE IMPOSSIBLE HORSE
A seemingly impossible horse killed most Rainbow pick 6 tickets on mandatory payout day last
Saturday. Incredibly, more than 50 million 20-cent tickets were reduced to just over 5,000 tickets
after the fourth leg. Making the casualty list, unfortunately, were the $1,900 in bets by the “I won
big” group.
The horse who won at 14/1, Rose’s Dancer, obviously had nothing particularly good going for him;
in fact, he had been beaten by seven lengths by another horse in the race, Mr. Coupons. But this
was a $12,000 bottom-level claimer which always raises a red flag and has me telling the “I won
big": group each time: “This is a killer leg, a race that has killed our tickets in the past.”
And it happened again. Which led to a post-race discussion
about whether the only way to win such a leg is to take ALL
horses. Which could prove to be too expensive.
Enter into the discussion Roger Jones, a multiple tournament
winner. He said this: In that kind of race YOU TAKE HORSES
THAT HAVEN’T DONE ANYTHING WRONG even though they might have been soundly beaten
by others in the race.
I like it. After all, horses in bottom-level claimers are models of inconsistency and this
handicapping angle takes that into account. So that will be our mantra going forward. And yours,
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too? The Rainbow paid $89,456 for each 20-cent ticket.
TWO DUBAI CHAMPIONS: California Chrome wowed ‘em Saturday by setting a track record
in winning the $10 million Dubai World Cup while ASD handicapper Rob MacLennan wowed
bettors with his picks in The Insider, nailing every pick-3 and the pick-4.
On fire at Dubai!
Rob’s picks have everyone cashing on World Cup Day
I wasn’t the only one who walked into the Downs’ Clubhouse shortly before the first
Dubai race at 7:20 a.m. Saturday and bet $18 on a triactor wheel that Rob MacLennan
had suggested in the World Cup Insider last Friday . . .
. . . AND POCKETED $332!
What a great start to the day, thanks to Rob’s formidable skills in handicapping foreign races. He
said he watched more than 120 replays from 14 countries. YOU try watching a replay in
Japanese! Rob has shown year after year that he is simply one of the best Dubai race
handicappers anywhere.
If I have one regret, it’s not betting enough on his picks. Ditto for the “I won big” group. They just
doubled their money. Already we’re looking forward to next year’s World Cup.
If you had bet the six pick-3s using Rob’s four top selections in each race, here’s how you would
have fared:
Race 4: Pick 3 paid $184
Race 7: $584
Race 5: $338
Race 8: $213
Race 6: $788
Race 9: $146
Total outlay ($64 per pick-3): $384 Earned: $2,253 Profit: $1,869
You’re welcome! And you got to munch on a free breakfast sandwich while you were doing all
that cashing!
NOW IT’S DOWN TO SIX
Battle of the unbeaten in Florida Derby: Nyquist vs Mohaymen
And there’s the Spiral Stakes from Turfway
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No longer a bridesmaid
He’s had many seconds and thirds through the years but now, finally, Kevin Palmer (second from
left with tournament director Dawn Forbes) has broken through to win the March Player’s Choice
tournament, beating 37 rivals. And he did so impressively, turning $40 in $2 win/place wagers
into $112.20. That gave him $500 in prize money. Second with $78.90 was Bob Pistawka (left)
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with $250 in prize money and Murray Chaban was just a loonie behind with $77.90. He collected
$100. Full results. Leaderboard for Horseplayer of the Year.
PALMER’S BEST PLAYS: Palmer’s most rewarding play came at Fair Grounds race 7:
S’maverlous at 20/1. Said Palmer: “He was moving up in class but has a good trainer—Michael
Maker—was wide on both turns in his previous start and was losing six pounds.” Palmer also
nailed a 10/1 horse at Oaklawn (“closer in a race with lots of speed”) and a 6/1 horse at
Gulfstream. You can read (and learn) more here.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
TARGET DATE FOR MAIN TRACK OPENING--APRIL 7: Prep work by ASD’s
track maintenance crew and cooperation from the weatherman should lead to the main track being
open next Thursday or Friday, says CEO Darren Dunn. It will be closed
Saturday because of a function on the tarmac, then re-opened Sunday for
timed workouts.
BIG MAN RETURNS -- SAYLER ASKS FOR 35
STALLS: After a one-year hiatus, ASD’s12-time leading trainer Ardell
Sayler has requested 35 stalls, says ASD’s assistant director of racing Derek
Corbel. Meanwhile, he says, three-time leading trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr., has
Ardell Sayler
asked for 40 stalls in addition to a similar number for trainer Jerry Gourneau.
Asks for 35 stalls
These could be the biggest stables at the meet which begins on Mother’s Day.
“I WON BIG”—NOTHING TO BE ASHAMED OF:
Certainly “I won big” players
who chased the $15 million Rainbow pick 6 pool at Gulfstream last Saturday were disappointed
they weren’t sharing an $89,000 payout for a 20-cent ticket. But they got every other leg correct
(with no favourites winning) at prices of $8.60, $15.80, $18.80, $6 and $14.20 and the leg they
missed was a head-scratcher (see above) that was missed on millions of other tickets. So they
could feel proud of their effort. This Saturday we’ll return to Gulfstream where there will be fat
pools thanks to Florida Derby Day. We’ll look at the Rainbow but also pick-3s, pick-4 and pick-5.
The usual time: 10:30 a.m. on the Clubhouse plaza.
WHY THE MANDATORY PAYOUT ON MARCH 26?
Christopher Camac in
Gulfstream’s race office told The Insider the mandatory payout of the track’s Rainbow pick 6 pool
was simply a “management decision” based around the fact that the track’s winter meet ends this
coming Sunday and they didn’t want to have a mandatory payout the day before—Florida Derby
Day—because it already would be a big day. So they picked the Saturday before the Florida
Derby—which was last Saturday. The spring meet
begins next Wednesday with a carry forward of
whatever is in the Rainbow pick 6 pool Sunday.
A GOOD WEEK FOR SYD: Lady Luck
took a shining to poker regular Syd Smith with a week
that included more than $300 in winnings playing $10
buy-in poker and getting drawn for free spins in the
Unleash Your Luck tournament that netted him $140
plus a bonus $250 as the month-end champ. He had
every reason to flash a big smile when he posed with
VLT hostess Roseanne at his favourite VLT game,
Joker Poker.
March tourney winner Syd Smith
SHH! MY COMPUTER IS HIBERNATING: Ever-evolving computer technology has
now given us “hibernation” and “hovering,” two new features I love as I create my first column on a
new computer. “Hibernation” allows you to shut down your computer while keeping stuff you were
working on “in hibernation” and “hovering” allows you to glean data from a source just by hovering
over it instead of clicking. You gotta love the inventive techies out there.
CALGARY IS BIGG CUP LEADER:
With just 10 days left in the regular NHL hockey
season, here are the standings for the Bigg Cup (best team in western Canada): (1) Calgary 70
points (2) Winnipeg 69 points (3) Vancouver and Edmonton tied for last with 67 points. Is last
best?
Where are they now?
by Rob MacLennan
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Heber and Magic have a big shot at Turf Paradise Saturday
The Don Schnell barn has had a tremendous winter meet at Turf
Paradise winning at a 20 per cent clip and hope for another big day
Saturday with a pair of the barn's best runners competing: Winnipeg
Futurity winner Heber goes in the $35,000 Arizona Stallion Stakes as
the 2/1 morning line favourite while Magic d' Oro races in a 6 1/2f
allowance test in race 7. Both horses have a big shot. Schnell had a
recent close call with the 11-year-old I Am Awesome in the Turf
Marathon final where he was a hard luck second.
Don Schnell
Also at Turf Paradise the William Tourangeau barn had a good
Winning at a 20% clip
second with the recently-claimed 6-year-old mare To B a Noitted.
Trainer Jared Brown looks for a better week. He had four runners yesterday and has three
this weekend including the recently claimed Quinchiette in the second race on Sunday who
tries an open allowance field and fits in quite nicely. She could be on the path for the older
mare stakes this summer at ASD.
At Fonner Park, trainer Jerry Gourneau had two recent second-place finishes while Ardell
Sayler's 4-year-old filly Girl Boss scored impressively in a NW3L allowance race on Saturday
($3.60). She's now rattled off wins in both her starts at Fonner. Look for both barns to try to
pick up a few more wins before moving to ASD once the Fonner meet wraps up in early May.
ON THE TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL -- THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT MO TOM: Lani
scored in a weak UAE Derby field while Gun Runner won the Louisiana Derby. But the talk
at Fair Grounds was about Mo Tom getting stopped cold down at the rail. If he qualifies for
the Kentucky Derby they'll be talking about all the bad trips he has weathered.
CLASSIC SHOWDOWN IN THE FLORIDA DERBY: What a tremendous card Saturday
at Gulfstream with a showdown between two current Derby favourites: Mohaymen and
Nyquist in the Florida Derby. I prefer Mohaymen but both have yet to be beaten and this
could be a classic--a California speedster versus a blue-blooded eastern closer. It's a story
never before seen in racing. The Spiral Stakes also goes on Saturday at Turfway with a wide
open field on a sythetic track that hasn't played recently into Kentucky Derby outcomes.
"TIPS 'N' TRICKS"
with Marshall Posner
Q.
Are there any handicapping tools in HPIbet for thoroughbred tracks?
A. Yes, HPIbet provides a FREE Brisnet download for most thoroughbred racetracks called
Brisnet Insider Picks and Power Plays report. To access this free download, just click on
the track you’re playing and scroll down to the DOWNLOADS section of the page along the
right hand side (view image here).
This report includes some great handicapping info such as blue chip trainer plays for high
percentage trainer angles, an overview of distance specialists running in today’s card, a list of
key races relevant for today’s card and lots more (view image here). You can also check the
stats for what type of horses have been winning at various distances. For example, 40% of all
6f races won at Turf Paradise during the current meet are wire-to-wire victories from a mid to
outside post position (view image here).
Got a question for Marshall? Email [email protected]
Review previous questions and answers here.
HISTORY ON THE HOOF: The best of Bob
Did you know . . . that a kid who hopped the fence at River Park, Whittier
Park and Polo Park race tracks went on to become the best thing that
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happened to Assiniboia Downs? Read “The day that shaped Assiniboia
Downs” here.
DO NOT READ THIS UNTIL TOMORROW
For release Friday:
Assiniboia Downs is announcing today that it is becoming the first track in North America to offer
trainers the opportunity to race their horses in clockwise or counter-clockwise races.
CEO Darren Dunn said he got the idea from Woodbine, which is running some of its turf races in
the opposite direction this summer, and from watching horses at ASD on the training track. “Some
horses naturally want to run in one direction or the other,” he said.
He likened that to being left-handed or right-handed. “Some horses are left-legged and others are
right-legged and, like people, they perform at their best when given a choice.”
And, if you believe a word that was written here, you’ve forgotten this is April Fool’s Day. Gotcha!
Or maybe not.
© Copyright 1996-2016 All Rights Reserved. Assiniboia Downs.
3975 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3K 2E9 • Ph (204) 885.3330 • Fax (204) 831.5348
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