Don`t fall in love with your opinions

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TWO CHANCES TO GET RICH TODAY FOR 20-CENTS
• Gulfstream Rainbow 6: $464,000 • Golden Gate Golden 6: $236,000
BACK ON TRACK
With below-normal temperatures hopefully
behind us, clocker Sheldon Riskin begins
timing workouts as the main track opens.
Some 230 horses are now on the grounds
with many more to come after Fonner Park
and Turf Paradise meets end in early May.
Bullet briefs . . .
• New Assiniboia Racing Club buys first horse
• Are you getting your share of weekly betting bonuses?
• Love a horse? Better have a “plan B” (See opinions vs rules)
• Derby prep race contest: Roberts blanks, leaves three standing
• Final Kentucky Derby prep race goes Saturday in Arkansas
• Woodbine transitions to Tapeta seamlessly
• Northlands gets reprieve: season extended to October
ROBERTS BLANKS; SOMEONE ELSE WILL WIN WAGER: He was a leader for weeks
but perennial ASD contest winner Jim Roberts put himself out of the running to win a $100
win/place wager on the Kentucky Derby by blanking on all three of his picks in last Saturday’s
three derby prep races: the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby. None of his picks
finished in the top three positions. That means, with just the Arkansas Derby left this Saturday,
only three entrants can win: Brian Norris (with 27 points), Bob Madhosingh (24 points) and
Jim Cretney (23 points). Good luck to each of them! See leaderboard here.
STILL ENTER! DERBY MUGS AT STAKE! Even if you can’t win the derby wager, still
enter the contest on the Arkansas Derby for a final draw for a set of two prized sculpted
Kentucky Derby mugs! Congrats to last week’s three mug winners: R. W. Martinson, Bob
Madhosingh and George Moehring who was celebrating his 70th birthday!
ASSINIBOIA RACING CLUB UPDATE
The nail-biting fun begins: Club of 39 buys its first race horse
So, exciting (some may say “anxious”) times begin for the 39 horse
owners who contributed $500 apiece for shares (one owner bought
two shares) in a brand new stable called the Assiniboia Racing Club.
More than half have never owned a horse.
John Field, the HBPA director who’s coordinating the club, tells The
Insider the group has now claimed a 4-year-old gelding, Smed, for
$5,000 U.S. The club did so Sunday from the third race at Oaklawn
with the help of the club’s trainer, Tanya Lindsay, and former ASD
top-percentage trainer Rob Atras, both of whom had been searching
for many weeks for a worthwhile claim on a limited budget.
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Smed is a Kentucky-bred by Divine Park out of Skipping Queen and
has a record of 12-1-1-1 with earnings of $22,677 U.S. He had
broken his maiden in a $10,000 claiming race last November at
Churchill Downs, going gate-to-wire in a 1/16 mile test. In the race he
was claimed from on Sunday, he finished third as the favourite.
Smed will obviously be fit and ready when the he comes to the
Downs. The first logical race for him is a $10,000 claimer for nonwinners of two races lifetime scheduled for Saturday, May 21. The
purse is $9,200. Take a deep breath, new horse owners, that’s more
than a month away.
YOU NAMED ME WHAT? Inkey Mooey.
Let me guess. The owners or breeders
of this 4-year-old filly racing in Washington let a kindergarten class name her. Then the teacher
took the whole class to the races to listen to the announcer call the name and the kids giggled
uncontrollably all the way home. Hey, it’s a shrewd way to introduce kids to horse racing!
DO THE
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HANDICAPPING
Your opinion could be your
WORST ENEMY!
So what’s the solution?
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If your opinions about horses are bang-on all the time, you don’t need to read any further.
Congratulations and invest all your winnings wisely!
If you’re still with me, let’s agree together that our opinions can often stand in the way of consistent
success playing the races. Plainly put, our opinions are often wrong.
So what do we do? We rely less on “opinions” and more on “rules.”
Rules take the subjectivity out of playing some horses. Love a horse
or hate a horse, you simply play it because of the “rule.”
This has become such a persistent theme in my thinking lately, I’ve
added this to Saturday’s “I won big” play. You can now pick up a
sheet in the Race Book Saturday afternoons outlining the group’s
pick-4, pick-5 or pick-6 plays with an ”R” beside the rule horse. And,
if you’re interested, ask me why the horse is a rule or come early
(10:15 a.m. Saturday on the Clubhouse plaza) where I’ll be happy to
describe a rule before the “I won big” workshop begins at 10:30 a.m.
How important can rules be? Last Thursday, the horses that finished first, second, third and fourth
in the superfecta were the top four added-up rule horses – and that super paid $1,600 for 20cents. Ask John Whitehill.
And, as Larry Liebrecht, a recent 14th place Vegas tournament finisher will tell you, he used a
10/1 rule horse (also the “added-up numbers” rule) in an earlier tournament. It wasn’t whether he
liked the horse or not, it was a rule horse at decent odds so he played it and it won.
Here are “rule” horses:
--A speed horse dropping in class. (This was my first-ever $1,000 wager in the early 1990s)
--A horse cutting back to a sprint after showing speed in a route race
--A horse with much the highest pace number or highest speed number (in the Equibase program)
--In maiden claiming races, horses with the lowest added-up numbers (add where the horse
finished in his last race with his position at the first call in his previous race). This is huge.
--On the turf, a horse that closes the quickest, using the standard of :24 seconds for a one mile
race, :30 seconds for a 1 1/16 mile race; :36 seconds for a 1 1/8 mile race
--On the turf, which horse has raced for the highest purse?
--For first-time starters, look for youngsters whose sire has produced other youngsters that have
won first time out. Look for the highest percentages.
There are more—which are discussed at the “I won big” sessions. A lot of you are already aware
of these; for others, these may fill in some gaps. What will be the “rule” horses on this Saturday’s
“I won big” tickets?
And now there’s just one . . .
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THE WEEK THAT WAS
SKYE CHERNETZ TO RIDE AT ASD: Former Woodbine jockey
Skye Chernetz, 22, is returning to her roots: Manitoba. She has enlisted with
the ASD jockey colony. Chernetz is the daughter of Bonnie Eshelman who
rode at the Downs some years ago and became agent for three-time leading
rider, Alan Cuthbertson. Skye was born in Manitoba. She has been riding
mainly at Woodbine where her mother has been her agent and her overall
record in four years of riding is 104 wins in 1,333 starts. Her horses earned
$4.2 million. She won a Sovereign award for top apprentice rider in 2013.
SEAMLESS TRANSITION FROM POLY TO TAPETA:
Skye Chernetz
Nothing was out of the ordinary at Woodbine last Saturday and
Sunday as the track began its 2016 meet on the new Tapeta allweather surface that replaced Polytrack. Favourites dominated the
cards except for an 11/1 horse on Saturday and 41/1 Zenzizi in the
fifth race Sunday (that set up a superfecta that paid $39,107, the
whole pool, for 20-cents). ASD bettors played the new surface conservatively, wagering four per
cent less than on last year’s Woodbine opening weekend. Overall wagering on simulcast races
those two days at the Downs increased by almost 15 per cent.
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NEW ROLLING DOUBLES HAVE LOW TAKE-OUT:
Woodbine has introduced
rolling doubles with a 15 per cent takeout rate making it a high-value wager because, essentially,
that means a 7.5 per cent takeout on each horse compared to betting each horse to win.
ASD TRACK REMAINED CLOSED BUT WOODBINE RACED: There was
little difference between Toronto and Winnipeg last weekend; both were in the grip of almost
identical unseasonably cold temperatures and windchill except Woodbine was racing and the
opening of the Downs’ main track was held in abeyance until yesterday. It appears to be mainly
uphill now – at both venues. Get out the shorts!
AQUEDUCT FORMFUL; I WON BIG GETS 50%
RETURN: Formful horses in Aqueduct’s pick-6 and a tricky Aqueduct/
Keeneland pick-4 resulted in last Saturday’s “I won big” group getting back
about half its outlay, primarily on a superfecta play that was strong on “rule”
horses (see above). Rob MacLennan’s key in the pick-6 DID win but so did a
favourite horse in the Wood Memorial which was mistakenly dismissed
because of the view of a usually astute handicapper (see below).
THIS SATURDAY: Since ASD players have been hitting well at Tampa, let’s
return to the pick-5 there as a group this Saturday. Those who wish to do so
also should take a peak at the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream to determine whether a
couple key horses could make that bet a play. Saturday,10:30 a.m. Clubhouse
plaza. Indicate your “rule” horses and your “opinion” horses. Everyone welcome.
NORTHLANDS’ LIFE EXTENDED TO OCTOBER: Northlands Park race track,
originally scheduled to close forever after Aug. 27, has been given an
extended life: To Thanksgiving Day, Oct. 10. That means the Edmonton track
will race primarily Wed-Fri-Sat, similar to the Downs, starting Friday, May 6
through to October.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS: “The favourite I’m going to try to beat (in
the Wood Memorial) is Outwork,” said highly-regarded Aqueduct handicapper
Andy Serling in his online report, taking four other horses. Wrong! His view
cost the “I won big” the pick-6 but at least Outwork was taken in pick-4s simply
because it fit a rule – the horse was a “bounce” factor because he had won big
two races back. A “rule” beat out an “opinion.” Who knew?
Andy Serling
Guesses wrong
DON’T MOVE TO CANADA!
That’s what the Daily Racing Form says in an ad on its
online home page. The ad suggests to U.S. citizens that there are “better options for your postelection escape plans” than moving to Canada. Essentially, the ad wants readers to sign up for a
newsletter promoting overseas opportunities—presumably in case Donald Trump is elected
President.
JETS END SEASON HONOURABLY WITH BIGG CUP:
The Winnipeg Jets
peaked too late (winning their final four games) but that should leave them feeling pretty good
about themselves heading into next season. And, hey, their late-season push wins them the Bigg
Cup (best NHL team in western Canada)! Final standings: (1) Winnipeg 78 points (2) Calgary 77
(3) Vancouver 75 (4) Edmonton 70
Where are they now?
by Rob MacLennan
Charlie’s Spider runs big; a Brown exactor Saturday?
Did you play him? This column gave you heads up last week. Charlie Smith’s 4-year-old
Spider's Alibi rallied to run a good second at 27/1 in the $50,000 Premier Stakes against a
very tough field in Lone Star’s opener last Thursday.
Two days later, Smith and his go-to jockey Rohan Singh were up at Fonner Park in Nebraska
running in the $15,000 Pepsi Stakes with the very quick 3-year-old filly, Pecos. The odds-on
favourite won but was disqualified and placed second for a bump in the stretch. One thing
about Charlie, he certainly knows were to spot his horses.
Also at Fonner, Ardell Sayler was active at the claiming box on Sunday after losing a horse
earlier in the card.
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Meanwhile, at Turf Paradise, Don Schnell scored a couple seconds with
the 11-year-old I Am Awesome and the maiden 3-year-old Papow.
Watch for his 7-year-old Runaway Cal on the grass Sunday.
The Jared Brown barn seems poised for a big weekend: Touch the Sun
and Two Bucks to Win could provide an exactor finish of 8-year-olds in
the 4th race Saturday while the newly claimed 3-year-old Media Melee
invades for the barn in the 3rd race Sunday. Watch out, too, for 4-year-old
Believe Too in the 5th on Sunday and the 6-year-old mare Elle's the
Boss on Monday.
Jared Brown
Poised to score
OFF-TRACKS CLOUD DERBY TRAIL: Outwork ran a gutsy
race in the Wood Memorial but barely defeated a maiden, Brody's
Cause made a sharp rally in the Blue Grass but the race came back
with very slow times and Exaggerator proved he's a great slop horse
with a huge kick to win the Santa Anita Derby.
ARKANSAS DERBY: I like Cupid, the obvious horse, but also
respect Dazzling Gem who is still improving.
Guess who I like in
Arkansas Derby?
"TIPS 'N' TRICKS"
with Marshall Posner
Q.
I’m new to horse racing and HPIbet – are there any online tutorials that teach me
how to bet?
A.
Yes, the new HPIbet system has a Learning Centre located in the footer of the website
(view image here). You can access a variety of content including videos and articles on How
To Read A Program, How To Handicap & How To Bet. There’s also a comprehensive
Racing Glossary that can be equally helpful to both newbies and veteran horseplayers (view
image here).
Simply click on any of the links in the Learning Centre and then select the video you want to
watch (view image here).
There’s also an excellent tutorial video on how to use HPIbet called Take The Tour that can
be found in the footer under the Support section. If you’re new to online betting, I highly
recommend watching this short demo.
Got a question for Marshall? Email [email protected]
HISTORY ON THE HOOF: The best of Bob
Did you know . . . that Gerry Hart, the Downs photographer for almost
50 years, collaborated with then Free Press photographer Dave Bonner, to
take the iconic, widely-seen total eclipse of the sun photo on Feb. 26,
1979? Read “A total eclipse of the (Gerry) Hart? No.” here.
Will “rule” horses save your bacon when
your “opinion” horses finish up the track?
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