Results from an EMCDDA study on Internet and drug markets

A game changer? Results from
an EMCDDA study on Internet
and drug markets
Jane Mounteney PhD, Alberto Oteo, Danica Thanki,
Alessandra Bo
Rationale for the study - uncertainty
• New virtual drug marketplaces emerging
• Receiving increasing attention - academic and
media
• EMCDDA web monitoring NPS but…
• Limited information on size, scale, shape,
potential impact… uncertainty
• Potentially major implications for the field
emcdda.europa.eu
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Study objectives
To increase understanding of the online supply
of drugs and undertake a mapping of the range
of internet drug markets in existence.
Surface web
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The role of social media and apps
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Online sale of NPS
•
Online sales of medicinal products for illicit use
•Sale of drugs on the deep web.
emcdda.europa.eu
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Trendspotter (case study) methodology
Draws on mixed methods approaches
And rapid assessment methodologies
Multi-source, multi-method, triangulation:
•Literature review
•Data collection
•Electronic survey
•Expert presentations
•Focus groups
•Social media
emcdda.europa.eu
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Trendspotter study process
Preparation
Data collection, literature review
Post meeting
Expert presentations x15 & team Focus/ discussion groups
ANALYSIS
Report
Electronic survey Network survey
Expert meeting
Participating experts
4%
96%
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Dark net markets, cryptomarkets
Combination of technologies:
Tor – communication anonymity between buyer and seller
Bitcoin – payment anonymity Encryption
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Rating systems
• Cryptomarkets rely heavily on trust. • Rating systems provide buyers with a fairly reliable track record of a vendor’s previous transactions
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2012 to 2013, rapidly increasing market
Yearly sales estimates from $15 million in SR in 2012 (Christin,
2013) to $ 90 million in 2013 (Aldridge; Décary‐Hetu, 2014)
Number of active retailers on the Black Market Reloaded, Sheep Market and Silk Road 2.0 (Van Buskirk et al, 2013) 11
2014 to 2015, threats and developments
• Oct 2013, Silk Road closure, arrest of Ross Ulbricht (Dread Pirate Roberts)
• Operation Onymous, November 2014 Interpol announced the closing down of 400 deep websites, including Silk Road 2.0. • Scams and closures, taking the bitcoin money stored in their accounts (e.g. Evolution March 2015)
• Agora closes – for ‘security’ reasons August 2015
Drug listings
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Sales volumes
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Soska & Christin 2015
Sale of items/substances
STIMULANTS
MDMA
CANNABIS
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Soska & Christin 2015
Why buy online? Top reasons on Silk Road Access /availability
Quality
Better quality
Poor quality in locality
High rating sellers
Vendor feedback ratings
Member forum information
Harm reduction
Safety
Wider range of drugs available
Speedy delivery
Convenient to order online
Site’s anonymity
Personal safety vs buying on the streets
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Ease of access
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Evolving markets
• A new breed of entrepreneurial drug dealer • Overlaps between DWM and clear web M –
Facebook, portals and grey market worm holes
• Online markets are rooted/anchored in offline structures – esp production and postal delivery systems
• Technological impact ‐ from open to closed to open (Aldridge)
to closed markets, e.g. Agora invite only
Site for community interventions: Doctor X
Not room for so many more doctors in the DWM!
Threats: infiltrate or self destruct
• Increased uncertainty in the deep web community as a result of police interventions and vendor scams • Increased security
• Decentralisation ‐ distributed architecture in response to threats
Conclusions Extent of drug transactions on the deep web is currently limited; early growth exponential, but plateauing? ‘DNMs unlikely to alter the entire market. Perhaps further segment it. Certain drugs like MDMA may move mostly online. And the web may be the preferred source for affluent users and small‐time dealers.’ (Schrager 2015)
Report available and new publication out soon
Thank you!
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