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Opportunities in Latin America:
Chile
Colombia
Peru
CA VENTURES
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CA VENTURES
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CA VENTURES
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Latin American Overview
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
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Regional Market Analysis
GDP Annual % Change
Strong Growth
6.0%
• Growth continues at a significantly
stronger pace than the world
average
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
• Investors and occupiers have
several options and risk profiles
4.0%
Substantial Investment:
3.6%
3.0%
3.0%
2012
2.6%
2013
2.7%
1.8%
2.0%
• Strong macroeconomic
fundamentals
• Expanding middle class
1.9%
1.0%
Slowing growth:
0.7%
0.9%
• Falling commodity prices
• Deceleration of China
0.0%
Asia Pacific
Latin
America
World
EMEA
Canada
• Slower U.S. consumer growth
HIS Global Insights
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Regional Market Analysis
• Robust economic growth supports demand
for commercial space
• Relatively large additions to supply
• Grade A space remains in short supply in
many markets, leading rents to rise sharply
over the past year
Largest Office Markets
• Mexico City
• Sao Paolo
• Santiago
Fastest Growing Markets
• Bogota
• Lima
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CHILE – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Slight decrease in GDP growth
• 5.6% in 2012
• 4.2% in 2013
• 4.0% in 2014 (est.)
Inflation
• Within the target range of 2-4%
Political Environment
• Elections in November
• Dramatic change in economic policy is
unlikely
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SANTIAGO CHILE
SANTIAGO, CHILE
Addition of 327,000 m2 in 2013
• Highest annual production ever
seen in Santiago
Highest vacancy in 9 years
• 2012 - 2.7%
• 2013 - 4.1% (Q2 2013)
Highest Rents
• Las Condes
Large Incoming Supply
• Upward pressure on vacancy
• In favor of tenants in the mediumterm
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
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SANTIAGO CHILE
SANTIAGO, CHILE
University
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Duocuc Universidad Catolica (DoucUC)
Student
Population
43,622
2
Universidad de Chile (UCHILE)
31,000
3
Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile (UC)
25,000
4
Universidad Andres Bello (UNAB)
25,000
5
Universidad de Las Americas (UDLA)
24,400
6
Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USAH)
15,600
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Universidad Mayor
15,000
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Universidad de Desarrollo (UDD)
13,700
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Universidad Diego Portales (UDP)
12,000
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Universidad Central de Chile (UCENTRAL)
12,000
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Universidad Tecnologica Metropolitana (UTEM)
7,700
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6,800
5,500
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Universidad Santo Tomas
Universidad Catolica Cardenal Silva Henriquez
(UCSH)
Universidad Metrop. De Cs. De la Educacion (UMCE)
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Universidad de Los Andes (UANDES)
4,500
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Universidad Alberto Hurtado (UNAB)
4,000
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Student Population
250,822
5,000
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COLOMBIA – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Increased Growth & Demand
• Year-over-year GDP between 2.5% - 5%
• Will continue for next few years
• Many buildings sold or leased during construction
phase
Inflation
• Within the target range of 2.5%
• No upward pressure expected in short -medium
term
Peace Negotiations with FARC
• Agreement on FARC’s political participation was
reached in Nov 2013
• Wide-reaching implications for improving security
situation
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BOGOTA COLOMBIA
Supply
•
•
•
125,000 m2 in 2013
375,000 m2 between 2014-2015
Total stock of corporate quality offices –
1,580,000 m2 (2013)
Strong Demand
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•
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Should push vacancy down to 4% by
year’s end (6% in 2012)
Strata-title buildings – difficult to find and
negotiate large spaces
Net Absorption should reach 135,000 m2
by end of 2013
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
Highest Rents
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Rising fast in El Norte – Class A pre-leasing $39-$45/m2/month
CB Richard Ellis
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BOGOTA COLOMBIA
University
Student
Population
1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia
26,000
2 Universidad Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
21,680
3 Universidad de Santo Tomás
18,818
4 Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas
15,676
5 Universidad de Los Andes
14,864
6 Universidad de La Salle
13,434
7 Politécnico Grancolombiano
13,000
8 Escuela Colombiana de Carreras Industriales
12,000
9 Universidad Católica de Colombia
Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas 10
Macarena
11 Universidad La Gran Colombia
11,162
12 Universidad del Rosario
8,900
13 Universidad Central
8,639
14 Universidad Antonio Nariño
7,507
15 Universidad Autónoma de Colombia
7,131
16 Universidad Manuela Beltrán
7,000
17 Universidad Piloto de Colombia
6,596
18 Universidad Colegio Mayor de Cundinamarca
4,896
19 Universidad de Rosario - Quinta de Mutis
4,023
20 Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales
2,739
21 Fundacion Universitaria Konrad Lorenz
2,200
22 Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administración
10,451
9,612
Student Population
227,176
848
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PERU – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Impressive GPD Growth
• 5.9% in 2013
• Slowing – deceleration of China – 20% of
Peru’s exports
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• 2013 - USD $4.1 billion in 1Q 2013
• 2012 record of USD $12.2 billion
Significant decrease in Debt-to-GDP
Ratio
• 46% - 2001
• 20% - 2013
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
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LIMA PERU
Office Construction Boom
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•
144,000 m2 in 2013
450,000 m2 in 2014-2015
Strong Office Absorption
•
•
Due to strong macroeconomic
fundamentals
Production to outpace demand in
2015 – push vacancy rates up in the
medium-term
High Demand / Limited Supply –
Rapid Increase in Rents
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•
•
Class A - USD $22-$30/m2/month
Class AB – USD $18-$27/m2/month
Vacancy in Lima is among the lowest
in the region at ~ 2%
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
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LIMA PERU
University
Student
Population
1
Universidad Alas Peruanas
58,458
2
Universidad Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
45,810
3
Universidad San Martin de Porres
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San
Marcos
Universidad Tecnológica del Perú
32,600
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5
28,645
27,500
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Universidad Nacional Federico Villareal
25,552
7
21,000
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias
Aplicadas
Universidad Ricardo Palma
15,768
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Universidad de Lima
14,378
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Universidad Cesar Vallejo
12,800
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Universidad Nacional de Educación
11,322
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Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola
8,450
14
Universidad de Piura
6,030
15
Universidad Norbert Wiener
5,100
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Universidad Nacional Agraria la Molina
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15,770
Student Population
330,127
944
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CA STUDENT LIVING INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
Why Latin America?
• Millions of students attending universities and colleges
throughout Latin America
• Virtually no professionally managed, institutional quality student
housing facilities to accommodate the current demand
• Growing middle class in Latin America has provided more
opportunities for students to attend college
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Admission rates have rapidly increased over the last ten years
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THANK YOU
TONY DIBIASE, PRINCIPAL, CA INTERNATIONAL
CA Ventures | 161 N Clark Street | Suite 4900 | Chicago, IL 60601
OFFICE: +1 312 239 1197 | CELL: +1 312 235 2320
www.ca-ventures.com
EMAIL: [email protected]
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