DİZGE BİLİMİ UZAY HAVASI VE ARKEOMETRİ

Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ
ESS 501
Introduction to Near Earth
Space
,
Yurdanur Tulunay
Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Havacılık ve Uzay
Mühendisliği, 06531 Ankara
(e-mail: [email protected])
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Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ
Earth System Science
Space Weather
and
Technology
Yurdanur Tulunay
Middle East Technical University ,
Department of Aerospace Engineering, 06531 Ankara
(e-mail: [email protected])
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Content
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Introduction
What is ESS
What is Space Weather
L. Lanzerrotti’s Presentation
Examples
What do we do
Results conclusion
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Introduction
• Since 1980 a paradigm emerged in
geosciences, analogous to
• plate tectonics revolution of 1950s
and 1960s.
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(Paradigm :
It typically defines what a given individual is willing
to accept of her or his field, or how they perform
their own work within it, Oxford Dictionary)
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This paradigm called
"Earth System Science" (ESS)
or
"Earth System"
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http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html
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EARTH
only planet we know of that sustains
LIFE
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Acknowledges
•
changes in the solid earth
•
changes result from interactions
among
•
NES,Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,
Biosphere and Lithosphere
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Changes in the solid E+ result from interactions among the atmosphere hydrosphere - biosphere and the lithosphere
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Example
Increasing awareness
of the role of
microbes in generating ore deposits.
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Example
The way tectonics influences
weathering rates, which in turn
affect global climate.
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ESS
systematically introduces concepts
and resources
centered on
space – air – water – land – life
and
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human dimensions.
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In the following slide the concept of a pyramidal
structure illustrates the relation of the ESS and
global change education in the larger interest of
society.
At the lower level of the pyramid information and
knowledge from the basic sciences , disciplines
are important.
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The next level is information and knowledge show
how to integrate the discipline of interest with the
other relevant disciplines.
Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who
will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind
activities.
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Within the pyramidal structure one can find out
who will advise, manage, direct and lead
humankind activities
D. Johnson. M. Ruzek, M. Kalb, Computer and Geosciences, vol.26,
pp.660-676, 2000)
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Future of our planet and
destiny of humankind are
dependent upon this
interdisciplinary
pyramid of ES
forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole.
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There is no process or phenomenon within the ES
which occurs in complete isolation from the other
elements of the system from the other elements of
the system , in particular the Sun, therefore,
the Near Earth Space (NES)
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Future of our planet and
destiny of humankind are
dependent upon this
interdisciplinary
pyramid of ES
forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole.
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In the mid-1980’s NASA began a systems approach
to cataloging the elements of the Earth System,
their linkages, dependences and fluxes. This
simplified version focuses on the physical
elements of the system, but relegates human
processes to a simple box.
i.e. Physical Elements of the system and human
processes forming a simple box.
http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthssystem/index.html
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CHALLENGE is :
How to quantify various elements, states, and
processes within the system ?
As an illustration, next slide shows the relevant
interactions of physical and dynamical properties.
The scales involved vary
(i) in spatial scales: from mm to the circumference of the Earth
(ii) in temporal scales: from seconds to billion of years
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Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box
System approach: Elements of the E+ system, their linkages, dependencies
and fluxes
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From space can view
the Earth as a whole system,
observe the net results of
complex interactions,
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begin to understand how
the planet is changing
in response to natural and
human influences
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ESS
has begun to understand and
quantify the effects of
“forcings”
on the climate system
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The next slide estimates of the globally and annually
averaged radiative forcings (in watt/sq.m) due to a
number of anthropogenic and natural factors from
pre-industrial times (1750) to 2000.
The height of the rectangular bars indicates midrange estimates of the FORCINGS:
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(Houghton, J., 2002)
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The error bars show estimates of the uncertainty
ranges.
Note that only the range of values, not a central
estimate, is shown for the indirect aeorosol
forcing, because of its large uncertainty.
The contribution of individiual gases to the direct
greenhouse forcing are indicated in the first bar;
the forcings associated with changes in Ozone are
shown in the second and third bars.
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Estimates of the forcings (globally averaged values) due to
changes in aerosols are shown in the following bars.
The last two bars are estimates of the forcings associated
with changes in land use because of the changes in
albedo and with possible variations in the input of solar
radiation.
Also included is an index of scientific understanding for
each forcing representing a subjective judgement about
the degree of knowledge and understanding regarding
the mechanisms involved.
(“Summary of Policymakers”, IPCC,2001)
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In the ESS , the various processes act in concert to
define both a backgound state (CLIMATOLOGY)
and a disturbed state (WEATHER) (R.W.Schunk, Space
Weather, Geophysical Monograph 125,AGU, WDC, 2001).
In other words, slow variations of long term averages
are the subject of climatology ; and the short term
variations are the subject of weather.
The influence of fluctuations of the solar source can
be the atmost importance for the terrestrial climate
(besides, continential drift, ocean currents, vulcanism;
position of the Earth in space, the fall of the bodies
into the NES etc.)
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This influence can be direct:
(i) if solar irradiance is tied with solar magnetic activity , it is reasonable to
expect that irradiance and sunspot numbers are correlated with each
other. In order to determine whether a climatic effect is visible , we must
have irradiance information available on climatic scales of many decades
to centuries. Unfortunately, irradiance data goes back to only 1980’s .
(SWARM-Internet Space Weather and Radio Propagation Forecasting
Course, 1996-2001) .
In other words, Solar radiation varies according to the nature of the
emission site-a sunspot does not radiate in the same way as a facula or
a coronal hole. A variation of 0.3 % of the solar constant(!) (i.e. 4 Watts
per Sq.m) results in average variation of 0.4 deg.of celsius of the
average temperature on the Earth .
Certain studies show an influence of the 11 – year solar cycle on some
meteorological phenomena.
(J. Lilensten and J. Bornarel, Space Weather, Enviroment and Societies
,Springer , 2006)
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(ii) The written records of the sunspots dates back
to 1600 AD. Chinese sunspot observations are
sporadic and dates back to 3000-4000 years ago.
Indirectly the C 14 content in trees will be
anticorrelated with solar activity. That is, C 14 is
produced by the cosmic rays . Due to the
Forbusch decrease if cosmic ray concentration is
low, then this period is a high sunspot or active
solar activity period.
There exist very early observations of auroral
observations from Chine, Japan and Korea.
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The little ice age was the name given to the period between
1550 to 1750 when winters were so called that the big
rivers of mid-latitude Europe froze over.
Between 1650 and 1750 there was a heavy draught in the
South-West of North America.
The whole period correspondance to the Maunder minimum
during which there were no sunspots on the Sun.
The Sun was unusually active between 1100 and 1250 AD –
called “ Grand Maximum”. During this period , even in the
northern countries the climate was so mild that wine could
be grown at latitudes beyond 50 deg.N !
(F. Jansen, Space Weather Consortium , Space Weather CD-ROM,ESTW, 2002)
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climate system produced by
solar variability increasing
concentrations of [CO2],
aerosols.
trends detected also
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What is Space Weather?
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• Our Sun is one of the ordinary stars of the Milky
Way Galaxy which consists of about 100 billion
stars. The Milky Way (MW) is only one of about 100
billion galaxies that exist in our Universe.
• The Sun orbits the center of the MW every 225
million years. Therefore, our solar system rotates
around the center of the MW at a speed of 830 000
km per hour.
• The sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma
rays to radio waves as depicten ın the next slide.
(F. Jansen,2002)
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The Sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma
rays to radio waves as shown in the next slide.
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The yellow line shows the Sun’s spectrum form X-rays to radio waves.
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Departments of Space Sciences and Technology (ESF-SSC, 1990)
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SEPs
CMEs
Geomagnetic Storms
GCRs
Uzay Havasinin Anahtar Konular
(Courtesy of L. Lanzerotti, ESWW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brusse
7
ODTÜ AAT Gökbilim Günleri 2009; 20-21 Mayis 2009
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(Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)
STRUCTURE
1. What is space weather
Issues for
a.
b.
c.
d.
Upper atmosphere effects
Charged particle environments
Humans in Space
Upstream drivers of space weather
Extreme events
Long-term change
Summary
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What is space weather?
•Space weather is the
physical and
phenomenological state
of natural space
environments. The
associated discipline
aims, through
observation, monitoring,
analysis and modelling,
at understanding and
predicting the state of
the the interplanetary and planetary environments, and
sun,
the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect
them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible
Text: courtesy COST Action 724
impacts on biological and technological systems.
Image: courtesy L. Lanzerotti
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Upper atmosphere
• Dominates (~90%) economic impact of Space Weather
– Potentially large Euro market for SpW services
• Effects include drag, radio propagation, induction
sources
SAR – along-track
coherence of
ionospheric path
E/F region – reflection/refraction
– magnetic storms/aurora
D region – absorption
X-ray flares, protons
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Comms/GNSS
Scintillation –
loss of phase lock
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Energetic particles in space
• Strategic issue for spacecraft
design & operations
– Potential Euro market for SpW
services
• Diverse space-based effects
– charging – by keV-MeV electrons
(rad belt, aurora, plasmasheet, SEP)
– radiation damage (e.g. solar cells,
DNA) – by > MeV ions (rad belt,
SAA, solar events, cosmic rays)
– single event effects (state changes in
microelectronics) – by >> MeV ions
(rad belt, solar events, cosmic rays)
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Cluster array power
2001-2007
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Image: courtesy ESA
Energetic particles in the atmosphere
• Very energetic particles (> GeV) penetrate the
atmosphere •… semiconductor memory failures
induced
by cosmic
– Cosmic rays, solar
energetic
particles radiation are no
longer
an “aerospace
problem”.
– Influx controlled
by geomagnetic
field (highest
at poles) Such
failure
mechanisms
mustflux
be~accounted
– Collisions generate
secondary
neutrons (peak
20 km, significant at
foratinsurface)
automotive electronics systems
10 km, some flux
design.
• Cause significant
single event effects in avionics
•www.automotivedesignline.com, June
• SEE now growing
2006 issue for ground-based electronics
– dominant factor limiting reliability of digital electronics
– major issue for safety-critical systems, e.g. in cars
– also issue for range of high-voltage power systems
• Cosmic rays also influence atmosphere
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– Clear link with cloud coverODTÜ/METU
in maritime
regions (Harrison, 2006)
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Humans in space
• Radiation is direct hazard to
astronauts
– DNA damage, increased cancer risk,
• Space station protected by Earth’s
magnetic field
• Moon and Mars are NOT protected
fatal
radiation sickness
raised cancer risk
above annual dose
fatal
radiation sickness
raised cancer risk
above annual dose
Max. annual dose for
a radiation worker
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Average annual dose
at Earth’s surface
Danger on
Mars
radiation hits on rover
camera
The luck of Apollo
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Upstream drivers
•Space Weather is a natural hazard – a consequence of living near
a star
– Analogous to living next to volcanoes, rivers, etc
Need to understand science
that controls this environment
– Behaviour of that star
– How energy and momentum
propagate to our planet
Propagation includes
– Solar wind + embedded
magnetic field
– Plasma transport across
magnetopause (confinement
boundary)
– Magnetosphere-ionosphere
coupling – magnetically
guided
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Common physics with magnetically
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Courtesy NASA
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Extreme Events
Extreme events are
important as they
produce major
disruption often beyond
scope of routine
mitigation.
• But they are rare – so main issue is
detection and then patience until
normal conditions return.
• Which critical systems need to cope?
• How to advise users on the day?
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Long-term change in SpW
•Solar change
40
•Green-house gases
30
6-month median aa
– Are we at grand (300-year) maximum in
solar activity (& its effects at Earth)?
– Will 21st century see collapse in activity
(similar to 17th century)?
– What are consequences: enhanced
cosmic ray fluxes, bigger solar particle
events?
35
25
re
Rising t
tic
o ma g n e
e
g
n
i
d
n
activity
20
15
10
5
0
1860
1860
1890
1920
1950
Year
1980
2010
2010
– Will cool upper atmosphere
– Some evidence in long-term ionospheric
data-sets
– Also evidence from EISCAT continuous
run for IHY
•Geomagnetic field
– Westward motion of SAA
– Decline in magnetospheric protection
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1930
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2010
(Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)
SUMMARY
• Space Weather has increasing impact on people
and technology
– Not limited to space, has very profound effects in upper
atmosphere and applications therein
– Growing awareness of sea-level effects and their
impact on applications (e.g. electronics, power grids,
etc).
– Has role in “Space Situational Awareness”
• Highlights need to understand space environment
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“Condition on the sun and in the solar
wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and
thermosphere that can influence the
performance and reliability of spaceborne and ground-based technological
systems and can endanger human life
or health.”
(US NS Weather Plan)
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“Space Weather” is the physical
and phenomenological state of
Ecospace, the region where
human activities interact with the
terrestrial and space
environments.
Maserotti, 2004
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Why is Space Weather so Important ?
Space Weather is an application-oriented discipline and
addresses the needs of users. But, it is important to
note that basic research in the field of Solar-Terrestrial
Physics is necessary for Space Weather applications.
SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL
PHYSICS
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SPACE
WEATHER
Basic Research
Application Oriented
Scientific Observations
Continuous Monitoring
Scientific Products
Service Products
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(Norma Crosby, Private Comm.) 57
The aurora borealis as seen from the ground. Different colors arise because different atmospheric gases
are excited, and the excitation occurs at different altitudes as a result of the wide energy spread of the
exciting electrons (from: Rice University educational home pages; http://space.rice.edu/).
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This image of the auroral oval shows the bright emissions that occur in the atmosphere at altitudes between 80
and 300 kilometers when atoms are excited by energetic electrons traveling along magnetic field lines.
This image was obtained from the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft over the north polar region during winter, when
the entire aurora borealis was over the night hemisphere of the Earth .
(from: Dynamics Explorer University of Iowa Imaging Experiment, L.A. Frank principal investigator).
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Before science the overlap of
society and space weather in
the form of low altitude auroras
that acompany space storms
gave rise to omens and wonders
This figure attempts to show
how to cyberelectrosphere
emerges from an interaction
between the subjects socitey,
science and space weather
Omen
Wonders
Society
Space
Weather
Cyberelectrosphere
Space
Physics &
Aeronomy
Technology
Science
Those components of which that
are vulnerable to space weather
distrubances form the
cyberelectrosphere at the center
of the triquetra
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The cyberelectrosphere denotes
a global, electrically enabled,
technological environment that
space storms attack
The overlap of space weather
and science has given rise to
the fields of space physics and
aeronomy
G.Siscoe, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 62 (2000), 1223
1232
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The future European navigation system “Galileo” will contain
some measures to compensate for space weather effects. This
image shows the first few satellites of the system.
WIRED FOR
POWER
SPACE
SHIP
EARTH
LINKED FOR
COMMUNICATION
SERVICED BY
SATELLITES
NETWORKED FOR
INFORMATION
F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys.,Germany.
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Halloween Storm
x17.2 and 10.0 flares! ( Oct 28)
Sunspots (Oct 28 -07:14h)
0:00h
11:06h
October 28, 2003
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6:00h
12:00h
18:00h
24:00h
11:16h
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov
October 29, 2003
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F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys., Germany.
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Problems in Birds’ Navigation
Homing pigeons and most migrating birds use the magnetic field of the Earth to navigate.
They have tiny magnets in their brain which act as a kind of compass. If the magnetic fields
is distorted during a geomagnetic storm, the birds may get lost and cannot find home.
F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys.,
Germany.
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In the framework of the global electric circuit
between the Sun and the Earth the probable
influence of Cosmic Rays have been studied. In
this context it is expected that cloudiness will
increase during solar minimum periods.
Why?
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(Carslaw et al.,2002)
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What Do we Do in
Turkey?
Some typical Examples
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Any space weather service
must be able to give reliable
predictions of the Sun’s
activity and its impact on the
space
environment
and
human activities.
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The ST and atmospheric
environments is influenced by
extraterrestrial and terrestrial EM
and electrodynamic processes,
intimately linked to
global climate change.
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Since 1990’s European Union Actions
COST 238; COST 251; COST 271;
COST 296; COST 724
ESF SPECIAL I and II; E-STAR
Framework Programs:FP6;FP7
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* ANN is a novel structure of the
information processing system.
* composed of a large number of
highly interconnected processing
elements (neurones) working in
parallel to solve specific problems.
* ANNs learn like
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Case-1 : METU-NN model for
non-linear
agro-environmental systems
(Tulunay, 2002)
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Observed and Forecast Flow
values versus the order of data
points. Superimposed in a solid
line is the one month advance
forecast values of the Flow.
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Scatter Diagram of the Forecast and
Observed Flow values with the linear
fit line. A fitted line has a slope close to
45° passing through the origin
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Case-2 : METU-NN model for
low altitude clouds
(Tulunay, 2003)
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One month ahead Forecast (solid) and
Observed (dashed) % Cloud fraction
values (April 1989 to December 1990).
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One month ahead Forecast
versus Observed % Cloud fraction
values with linear fit line .
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Case-3 : METU-NN model for
Solar Flux Forcasting
( Özkök, 2005)
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Horizontal axis refers to the normalized
obtained values; vertical axis refers to
the normalized measured values.
One hour ahead forecast of solar fluxes at 2695 MHz
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Forecasters
& Ops Specs
Models
Pamplona, Feast of St. Fermin, July 7, 2001
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J. Kunches,NOAA SEC, COSPAR 2002, Houston, October
19, 2002.
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CONCLUSION
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SpW is set to become of
increasing importance in our
daily lives as our dependence
on technological systems
increases.
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Although learnt a great deal
about the Sun-Earth system and
its effects on the
Earth
still
far from understanding the
complete picture.
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83
More research is still needed
to reliably predict the strength
and duration of a space weather
event at the Earth
15/10/15
ESS 501
ODTÜ/METU Ankara
84
Data
driven
forecast
and
modeling is very promising in
Space Weather applications.
15/10/15
ESS 501
ODTÜ/METU Ankara
85
Applications can be twofold:
• Future
• Retrospective
15/10/15
ESS 501
ODTÜ/METU Ankara
86