Automotive Sector

Transcription

Automotive Sector

Automotive
Sector
Poland
February 2014
Produced by:
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
-1-
Table of Contents
I. Sector Overview
III. Other Vehicles
1. Sector Highlights
2. Economic Importance
3. Main Indicators
4. Main Indicators (cont'd)
5. Transport Volumes
6. Safety Issues
7. Car Park
8. Automotive Sector Output
9. Foreign Trade
10.FDI Projects
11.Fuel Prices
12.Forecasts for Eastern Europe
13.Forecasts for Poland: Volume Terms
14.Forecasts for Poland: Value Terms
15.Government Policy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
IV. Car Parts, Tyres, Leasing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Manufacturers
Passenger Cars: Sales and Age
Used Passenger Cars
Top Makes
Most Popular Models in 2013
Segment Forecasts
Spare Car Parts
Car Tyres
Tyres, Glass and Batteries
Natural Gas Installations
Motor Vehicle Leasing
V. Main Players
II. Passenger Cars & LCVs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
New Buses and Coaches Market
Buses and Coaches: Market Shares
Exports of Buses and Coaches
Commercial Vehicles, Road Tractors
Agricultural Tractors, Motorcycles
Segment Forecasts
-2-
Top M&A Deals
Top 10 Companies and Top 5 Groups
Fiat
Fiat (cont'd)
Volkswagen
General Motors/ Opel
TRW
Faurecia
I. Sector Overview
-3-
Sector Highlights
Poland & CEE
Poland is the third-largest manufacturer in Central and Eastern Europe (after the Czech Republic and Slovakia). It is also the regional leader in the
manufacturing of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) as well as heavy trucks, buses and coaches. Poland accounts for 2.5% of the European
automotive manufacturing industry value, according to research firm MarketLine.
Sector & Economy
The automotive sector, which includes both manufacturing and trade/repair, accounts for 12% of Poland's GDP (calculated according to 2012
data). There are around 150,000 people working in the automotive manufacturing industry and another 400,000 employed in automotive trade and
services. After declines in the 2010-2013 period, their numbers are expected to increase again in coming years.
Specialties
Poland specialises in car parts manufacturing (in H1 2013, automobile production totalled PLN 22.83 billion, or EUR 5.46 billion, while parts and
accessories output - PLN 30.05 billion, or EUR 7.18 billion) and its specialty are engines (GM just announced a plan to invest EUR 250 million in a
new diesel engine facility). Indeed, it is the second largest car parts and accessories producer in CEE. From the total of 40 automobile and engine
plants located in CEE, 16 operate in Poland.
Vehicles & Population
Poland's car park was 18.7 million vehicles in 2012, but the economy ministry noted that the actual number of cars in use may be two million less
than that. On average, Polish car owners use their vehicles for around 14 years before replacing them. The number of car users per 1,000 people
is around 450, which is well below the EU average. The number of used cars entering the Polish market is twice as high as the number of new
cars.
Exports
A total of 75% of the Polish automotive sector's sales are coming from exports. In 2012, the value of the exports dropped by 5% y/y to EUR 20.5
billion. Key export markets are: Germany (over 30% of total exports), Italy (10%), Britain (9%), France (6%) and the Czech Republic (5%),
according to Eurostat data.
-4-
Economic Importance
Automotive Manufacturing and Trade Economic Importance
GDP real value, PLN bn
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1,275.5
1,344.5
1,416.6
1,528.1
1,595.2
5.1
1.6
3.9
4.5
1.9
163.3
159.1
174.9
193.7
191.2
2.2
-2.6
10
10.7
-1.3
12.8%
11.8%
12.3%
12.7%
12.0%
GDP, % change y/y
Sector's revenue, PLN bn
Sector's revenue, % change y/y
Sector's revenue as % of GDP
Comments
The automotive sector is one of the most important sectors of the Polish economy. Comprising both manufacturing and trade/ repair, it contributes around
12% of the Polish GDP - the figure dropped in 2008 as a result of the first wave of the economic crisis.
For the purpose of the table above, we have combined the total revenue of "manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers" and "retail trade in
motor vehicles and repair."
Source: EMIS Insight calculations, PKO BP based on GUS data
-5-
Main Indicators
Automotive Manufacturers and Traders
Investments in Transportation* (PLN mn)
5586
2012
5,559
184,914
243,346
191,219
6206
2011
237,627
217,260
218,581
217,287
23,559
20,124
21,114
22,670
20,448
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
5,693
187,043
193,682
4491
2010
5,454
168,422
174,925
4546
2009
4,362
154,099
159,075
5283
2008
2,632
160,086
163,324
Investment outlays
Net financial result
Total costs
Revenue
Transport equipment
Source: PKO BP based on GUS data, own calculations (left), GUS (right)
-6-
Grand total
Main Indicators (cont'd)
Retail Sales Results (% change y/y)
Automotive Industry – Gross Value Added in 2012
%*
20.1
13.1
11.6
1.9
9.1
5.6
3.3
2011
2012
7.9
4.3
5.5
2009
-5.2
2010
-5.8
Total
Motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts
Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels
10.8
2.3
1.5
- local suppliers and sub-suppliers of goods and services to
companies (supplier effects)
0.01
- local suppliers and sub-suppliers of goods and services to the
employed (income effects)
0.4
Automotive trade and services:
4.5
- local suppliers and sub-suppliers of goods and services to
companies (supplier effects)
0.8
- local suppliers and sub-suppliers of goods and services to the
employed (income effects)
0.4
2013
-6.1
Retail Sales Business Climate
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
* - share in total economy
Source: GUS (lleft), LPMG (right)
Automotive manufacturing:
-7-
Transport Volumes
Transport of Goods (thou tonnes)
469,513
416,891
460,754
Transport of Passengers (thou persons)
416,888
462,507
2013
269,840
695,905
412,465
497,288
2012
273,172
778,390
534,885
248,491
155,501
127,158
112,239
216,007
166,859
230,821
232,627
2011
263,595
805,623
167,789
239,193
569,652
2010
261,298
836,651
559,174
2009
283,640
849,551
2009
2010
Railway
2011
Road
2012
2013
Road
Total
Source: GUS
-8-
Railway
Total
Safety Issues
Road Safety in Poland
63,224
Number of Stolen Vehicles
62,097
54,291
56,046
49,536
51,150
49,054
48,952
49,501
45,292
45,792
44,196
38,832
40,065
37,046
30,529
21,284
17,669
5,583
5,437
4,572
3,907
4,189
3,571
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Accidents
Fatalities
2003
Casualties
Source: Police Main Headquarters
-9-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16,915
16,098
16,285
2009
2010
2011
15,424
2012
Car Park
Car Park in Poland (thou units, end-year)
18,125
18,744
17,240
16,080
16,495
14,589
13,384
11,975
9,991
10,503
12,339
11,029
11,244
2,163
869
2,313
2,392
845
836
754
83
83
83
80
84
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
7,517
5,261
1,356
1,354
1,879
1,979
1,045
92
929
85
803
82
803
82
1990
1995
2000
2001
Passenger cars
2,305
LCVs, lorries, trailers
Source: PZPM based on GUS data
- 10 -
2,393
784
2,710
2,797
2,982
3,131
3,178
2,521
825
909
92
975
1,013
1,069
1,107
88
95
97
100
100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Buses and coaches
Motorcycles
Automotive Sector Output
Production of Major Products (units)
Agricultural tractors
Passenger cars
Public transport vehicles
Lorries and road tractors for semi-trailers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,561
3,605
3,661
3,539
2,452
819,000
785,000
741,000
540,000
475,000
4,822
4,566
5,059
4,012
4,203
55,364
79,908
92,074
104,057
111,073
Comments
The key passenger car producers in Poland are: Fiat Auto Poland (FAP), Volkswagen Poznan (21.4% market share), General Motors Manufacturing Poland
(Opel) and Fabryka Samochodow Osobowych (FSO).
Poland is an important manufacturer of buses and coaches in Europe (with an annual output of around 5,000 vehicles). Producers include: MAN Bus,
Scania Production Slupsk, Solaris Bus & Coach, Volvo Polska, Autosan, Jelcz, Solbus and AMZ Kutno.
Source: GUS
- 11 -
Foreign Trade
Exports/ Imports (PLN bn)
90.4
72.7
76.5
56.0
44.1
2008
2009
78.3
50.0
2010
56.9
2011
Exports
86.0
86.6
54.7
51.6
2012
2013
Imports
 A total of 75% of the branch's sales are exports. However, in
2012, the exports' value dropped by 5% y/y to EUR 20.5bn, 82%
of this amount due to decreased exports to European Union.
Key export markets are: Germany (over 30% of total exports),
Italy (10%), Britain (9%), France (6%) and the Czech Republic
(5%), according to Eurostat data.
95.3
90.1
53.6
2014
56.4
 Exports of the automotive industry in Poland totalled EUR
15.25bn in January-October 2013, which is a rise of nearly 1.2%
y/y, according to data provided by Automotivesuppliers.pl. A
total of 80% of the exports were to EU countries.
2015
 In October 2013 alone, a growth of 1.84% y/y to EUR 1.63bn
was reported, which was the second best monthly result last
year. The three main product groups (i.e. parts and accessories,
passenger cars and LCVs, diesel engines) took up nearly 79.4%
of total exports (up by 0.25% on the year). Their value was EUR
663mn (+8.7% y/y), EUR 438mn (-6.4% y/y) and EUR 193mn
+2.15% y/y), respectively.
Imports of Used Passenger Cars (thou units)
1,104.0
693.3
718.3
655.3
657.4
711.9
703.8
710.8
 KPMG expects the share of automotive goods' exports in total
exports to ease year by year - to 12.8% in 2015 from 14.4% in
2012. The share of imports is also projected to decline - to 7.5%
from 8.6%, respectively.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: KPMG: 2013 data: estimates, 2014-2015: forecasts (left), PZPM (2008-2013) KPMG (forecasts) (right)
- 12 -
FDI Projects
FDI Projects in Automotive Industry*
Number of projects
Value (EUR mn)
Jobs
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14
2
5
8
16
10
298
227
106
595
816
312
3,020
650 1,040 1,280 3,400 2,600
 The strengths of the Polish automotive industry include a
dense network of enterprises (around 850 of them), which
allows for close links with partners and suppliers. Its
geographical position is also beneficial - making it a
convenient hub for both European and Asian automakers.
Also, qualified workforce here is still more affordable than
in Western Europe.
* - carried out by the PAIiIZ
FDI Inflows to Automotive Industry* (PLN bn)
19.9
2008
23.9
2009
25.7
2010
28.6
2011
30.1
2012
30.9
2013
34.1
2014
37.5
 The weaknesses of the industry - as pointed out by Exact
Systems (a firm specialising in car parts checks) - is, first
and foremost, the lack of a national brand (such as Czech
Republic's Skoda or Romania's Dacia). Also, currently
operating plants manufacture a wide array of models.
2015
* - value of investments at year-end
Source: PAIiIZ (upper), KPMG (2013 data: estimates, 2014-2015: forecasts) (lower)
 Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the automotive sector
totalled EUR 9.5bn at the end of 2012, which is 17% of all
foreign funds invested in the Polish manufacturing
industries (according to NBP data).
- 13 -
Fuel Prices
Average Retail Prices in January of Each Year (PLN)
5.49
5.50
5.30
Structure of Retail Price of E95 in January, 2014 (%)
5.36
Margin 4%
Fuel fee 2%
Net price 46%
2.66
2.51
VAT 19%
2013
Engine petrol E95
2014
Diesel oil
Excise tax
29%
LPG
Structure of Retail Price of Diesel Oil in January, 2014 (%)
Structure of Retail Price of LPG in January, 2014 (%)
Net price 57%
Net price 50%
Margin 4%
Fuel fee 5%
Margin 7%
Fuel fee 3%
VAT 19%
VAT 19%
Excise tax
22%
Source: POPiHN
- 14 -
Excise tax
14%
Forecasts for Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe Automotive Manufacturing Industry
7,102
Forecasts of Car Assembly (thou units)
7,548
6,327
5,590
4,476
2012
4,916
2013
79,250
2014
2015
2016
2017
81,832
86,588
97,755
101,729
33,157
36,246
38,475
24,518
15,915
26,870
29,986
15,771
16,267
17,950
18,342
18,756
3,477
3,684
3,969
4,299
4,601
4,901
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Asia-Pacific developing
East Europe
thou units
92,533
European Union
Total
Comments
Western European car sales are expected to rebound in 2014, posting a growth of 1.0%, LMC Automotive forecasts. Already in 2013, it expects a
significant improvement with the sales decline seen shrinking to 2.8% from 8.2% in 2012 (even in 2010, the sales fell by merely 5.0%). Also PwC Autofacts
expects a return to growth in 2014 - of 3.2% in the case of the European Union and 4.0% in the case of the entire Europe (vs. EU sales decline of 0.9%
expected in 2013 and growth of 0.3% in entire Europe).
For the CEE region, PwC expects sales growth in both 2013 and 2014.
Source: MarketLine (left)
- 15 -
Forecasts for Poland: Volume Terms
Comments
KPMG: Production of Motor Vehicles (thou units)
 The value of the automotive industry's sold output is likely to increase
to PLN 122.3bn in 2014 from PLN 117.1bn in 2013, advisory KPMG
forecasts. In 2015, this value should grow further to PLN 130.0bn.
 KPMG also expects 2014 to bring the end of the downward trend,
when production of vehicles is projected to inch up to 595,200 from
581,300 expected in 2012 (the declined has lasted since 2009 - in
2008, the production of passenger cars and commercial vehicles
totalled 947,100 and has continued to decline since then).
2015
123.4
2014
119.5
2013
117.2
2012
111.8
494.7
475.7
464.1
539.7
Commercial vehicles
KPMG: Registrations of New Motor Vehicles (thou units)
57.2
57.1
2012
2013
Passenger cars
MarketLine: Poland Automotive Manufacturing (thou units)
660
650
640
630
620
610
600
590
580
570
560
294.6
287.4
280.4
272.7
60.6
2014
64.8
2015
Commercial vehicles
647.8
611.6
601.8
2012
Source: KPMG (2013 data: estimates, 2014-2015: forecasts) (upper; lower left), MarketLine (lower right)
Passenger cars
- 16 -
2013
2014
596.6
595.7
2015
2016
602.7
2017
Forecasts for Poland: Value Terms
MarketLine: Poland Automotive Manufacturing Industry
KPMG: Value of Sold Production in Automotive Manufacturing
130.0
31.7
9.7
7.6
2012
31.7
31.3
32.3
33.1
118.2
34.3
114.6
117.1
114.6
117.1
122.3
100.3
9.6
7.5
9.7
7.6
9.9
10.2
10.5
7.7
7.9
8.2
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
90.9
89.8
90.9
89.8
100.3
118.2
122.3
130
PLN bn*
PLN bn
USD bn
EUR bn
* - Data covers automotive manufacturing and manufacturing of car tyres,
glass and batteries
Source: MarketLine (left), KPMG (2013 data: estimates, 2014-2015: forecasts) (right)
- 17 -
Government Policy
Seeking
investors
Both sector players and market observers have identified the lack of proactive policies and wider-ranging schemes (other than tax
breaks and special economic zones) as the main reasons for lost opportunities.
However, deputy PM and economy minister Janusz Piechocinski seems to have been busy attracting investors from the sector for
over a year now. He even hinted that he had been in talks with an unnamed corporation "from the world's first league" about setting up
a car manufacturing plant in Poland. Indeed, a few large-scale projects are in the pipeline.
GM announced the plan to start production – at a cost of EUR 250mn - of four-cylinder Diesel engines in Tychy as of 2017. German
media have recently reported on VW's plans to launch a new EUR 500mn plant producing 70,000 VW Crafter vehicles as of 2016 near
Poznan. Piechocinski hopes to persuade Fiat - which is due to announce its new strategy in April - to start manufacturing a new model
in Poland.
According to the deputy premier, this year Poland is likely to attract automotive investors who will assemble their vehicles here. He
deems that Poland still lacks producers of large-size tyres, high capacity engines for trucks as well as of metal sheets for car bodies.
Tax issues
Until the end of 2013, entrepreneurs that purchased cars with a registered gross vehicle weight (GVW) of up to 3.5 tonnes for business
use could not deduct VAT of more than PLN 6,000 (EUR 1,450) from the purchases. As of the beginning of 2014, "old regulations"
were reinstated, allowing the full deduction of VAT, but only for a selected range of models that may be registered as commercial
vehicles. Automotive portals promptly gathered information on the list of such vehicles.
However, parliament recently decided that as of Apr 1, business owners of such vehicles (i.e. of up to 3.5 tonnes of GVW) will be able
to deduct only half of the VAT. They may deduct this tax from all purchases (e.g. car parts, services), except fuel (this possibility will
be introduced only as of Jul 1, 2015).
According to the finance ministry, the new regulations will be beneficial for entrepreneurs, while the state budget will suffer - its
revenue is expected to fall due to these changes by PLN 0.94 billion (EUR 0.23 billion) in 2014, by PLN 1.38 billion in 2015 and by
2.60 billion in 2016.
Also, as of Jan 1, 2014, the sale of a used car by a company leads to the need to pay VAT from the transaction.
Source: Finance ministry, economy ministry, media
- 18 -
II. Passenger Cars & LCVs
- 19 -
Manufacturers
Output of Passenger Cars and LCVs (thou units)
Manufacturers of Passenger Cars and LCV in Poland in 2012
88,132
2013
Volkswagen
Poznan 25.5%
486,985
85,748
2012
550,089
General
Motors
Manufacturing
Poland 19.7%
103,184
2011
722,285
Fiat Auto
Poland 54.8%
87,986
2010
799,255
LCVs
Passenger cars
Source: Samar (left), KPMG based on Samar data (right)
- 20 -
Passenger Cars: Sales and Age
Production and Registration (thou units)
864.2
761.9
833.3
16-20 years
19.7%
799.3
722.3
21-30 years
16.8%
575.1
332.1
270.6
274.8
313.7
271.8
315.1
635.8
273.9
Age Structure of Passenger Cars in 2011 (%)
10-15 years
31.5%
over 30 years
9.3%
2007
2008
2009
2010
Production
2011
2012
up to 2 years
3.8%
2013
6-9 years
12.0%
Registration
3-5 years 6.9%
Comments
The year 2013 brought about a 6.4% growth in the registration numbers of passenger cars and LCVs (the growth was 6.3% to 289,913 passenger cars and
7.1% to 42.182 LCVs).
The number of registrations of passenger cars rose in 2013 after two years of decline and is expected to grow again - by 5-10% in 2014, according to Exact
Systems' forecasts. The firm - specialising in car parts checks - also hopes for a trend reversal in terms of output: it forecasts a 5% growth this year,
buoyed by the country's improving macroeconomic indicators.
Source: Samar (left), GUS (right)
- 21 -
Used Passenger Cars
Imports of Used Passenger Cars to Poland (units)
1,103,970
994,564
828,142
870,777
816,789
693,324
718,286
655,314
657,392
2011
2012
711,865
35,736
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
Most Popular Imported Car Makes (thou cars)
135.1
132.3
111.2
90.5
88.5
55.7
63.9
2009
76.7
56.2 61.6
71.4
49.8 56.7
2010
109.0
104.7
2011
Volkswagen
Opel
- 22 -
53.8 55.5
2012
Audi
Ford
Source: PZPM based on data from the finance ministry (left), PZPM based on data from the interior ministry's CEP dB (right)
77.7
60.6 55.8
2013
Top Makes
Passenger Cars: Market shares (%)
3.73
Dacia
1.75
3.51
4.28
Peugeot
Renault 11.6%
4.28
4.03
5.24
Renault
4.96
Hyundai
5.63
5.09
Kia
5.55
Peugeot
13.6%
6.11
5.8
Volkswagen
8.2%
5.91
4.59
6.49
Opel
7.16
7.90
6.78
Ford
6.20
Toyota
8.34
7.28
6.80
8.1
MercedesBenz 7.2%
9.01
Volkswagen
7.23
8.45
12.55
Skoda
2013
Top 5 LCV in 2013 (%)
Fiat 23.5%
11.81
11.68
2012
2011
Source: PZPM based on data from the interior ministry's CEP (Central Register of Vehicles) dB
- 23 -
Most Popular Models in 2013
Passenger Cars: Registration of New Vehicles (items)
Model
LCVs: Registration of New Vehicles (items)
Items sold
Model
Items sold
Skoda Octavia
11,463
Fiat Ducato
6,074
Skoda Fabia
10,800
Renault Master
3,710
Ford Focus
8,024
Peugeot Boxer
2,755
VW Golf
7,730
Peugeot Partner
2,573
Opel Astra
7,554
Mercedes Sprinter
2,202
Toyota Auris
7,304
Iveco Daily
1,966
Toyota Yaris
6,888
Ford Transit
1,898
Renault Clio
6,551
Citroen Berlingo
1,553
Kia Sportage
6,000
Dacia Dokker Van
1,412
Nissan Qashqai
5,395
Fiat Fiorino
1,391
Hyunday i30
5,376
VW Caddy
1,279
Opel Corsa
5,211
Fiat Doblo
1,224
Kia Ceed
5,009
Citroen Jumper
1,077
Hyunday iX35
4,927
VW Transporter
860
Dacia Duster
4,671
Toyota Yaris
856
Source: Samar
- 24 -
Segment Forecasts
Passenger Cars (Units)
548,100
493,290
513,022
525,977
Light Commercial Vehicles, Units
544,699
566,207
2017
2016
273,589
290,004
304,505
319,730
327,328
2015
2013
2013
2014
2015
2016
47,073
169,282
44,435
148,352
42,572
127,825
41,202
103,923
38,507
Output
Output
Source: BMI
190,833
2017
2012
Sales
49,695
337,844
2014
2012
214,291
- 25 -
Sales
III. Other Vehicles
- 26 -
New Buses and Coaches Market
First Registrations of New Buses and Coaches (units)
Biggest Producers in 2013
Others
1,561
1,389
1,370
1,279
Scania
421
438
395
108
179
487
2006
Mercedes-Benz
86
153
83
2007
Solaris
699
318
257
103
Volvo
542
453
96
70
62
2008
MAN
Solaris
63
2009
Total
MAN
1,229
1,512
Autosan
Comments
The Polish market reported a growth in the first registration of buses and coaches in Poland in 2013 (of 8.6%) after a decline a year earlier. Research firm
JMK and the branch's organisation PZPM said it came as a surprise as throughout most of the year, declines were reported (the most severe ones in the
first months of 2013).
They attribute the surge in sales, especially in December, to the introduction of Euro 6, a new, stricter EU emission standard, which will probably lead to a
5-6% rice in vehicle prices. However, till the end of 2014, buses and coaches meeting the Euro 5 standard will still be allowed to be registered.
Source: PZPM, JMK on the basis of CEP data (left), JMK (right)
- 27 -
Buses and Coaches: Market Shares
2013 Market Structure: New Vehicles (%)
MAN 4.5%
2013 Market Structure: Used Vehicles* (%)
MAN 9.4%
Autosan 4.5%
Solaris 22.9%
Setra 12.7%
VDL 6.6%
Others 29.1%
Others 19.6%
Renault 16.2%
MercedesBenz 39.0%
MercedesBenz 28.4%
* - first registrations
Source: PZPM, JMK on the basis of CEP data
Iveco-Irisbus
7.3%
- 28 -
Comments
 Exports of buses and coaches from Poland rebounded in 2013, when
it grew by 6.7% y/y to 3,303 vehicles after a decline of 15.7% in 2012,
according to data provided by JMK. The good annual result was
achieved thanks to a noticeable improvement in Q4/2013, though
each quarter of last year saw increasingly higher shipments. This
growth was accompanied by an improvement of European bus and
coach sales (they rose by 3% last year). Also, the new Euro 6
standard played its role.
 The biggest exporters in 2013 were: MAN (1,489 vehicles, up by
15.0% y/y), Solaris Bus & Coach (971 vehicles, up by 39.1%) and
Volvo (693 vehicles, up by 0,4% y/y).
3,810
2011
3,303
2012
2013
number of vehicles
Biggest Exporters in 2013 (%)
Top 10 of Export Markets in 2013
Country
Germany
Sweden
Norway
France
Serbia
Switzerland
Israel
Bulgaria
Italy
Belgium
Others
Solaris 29.4%
Volvo 21.0%
Scania 2.9%
Others 1.6%
MAN 45.1%
Source: JMK
3,096
- 29 -
Vehicles
839
530
413
280
199
122
116
109
104
84
507
Share in %
25.4
16.05
12.5
8.48
6.02
3.69
3.51
3.3
3.15
2.54
15.35
Commercial Vehicles, Road Tractors
Top 5: Commercial Vehicles, GVW > 3.5 tonnes*
Sales
Volvo 13.8%
MercedesBenz 16.2%
Scania 12.8%
19,715
Iveco 12.2%
17,105
Renault 5.6%
16,430
14,253
MAN 18.4%
11,704
* - registration of new vehicles in 2013(all segments)
10,617
Top 5: Road Tractors, GVW > 6.0 tonnes
6,164
MAN 15.46%
Scania 14.15%
MercedesBenz 15.49%
11,829
DAF 20.2%
Iveco 7.98%
Renault 6.03%
Volvo 17.11%
Others 0.01%
2010
DAF 23.77%
2012
Commercial vehicles, GVW > 3,5 t (in total)
Source: PZPM analysis based onCEP, Interior ministry
2011
- 30 -
2013
Road tractors, GVW > 3,5 t
Agricultural Tractors, Motorcycles
Sales
 The average age of an agricultural tractor in Poland is 23
years and the number of tractors per 100 farms is 2-3
times lower in Poland than in most Western European
countries. Hence, we expect the number of tractors in
Poland to increase, specially with EU financial support
incentives.
19,231
14,972
7,781
7,598
2012
2013
Number of tractors
 The most popular tractor brands are: New Holland, Zetor,
and John Deere as well as the domestic brands Ursus
and Pronar.
Number of trailers
Number of Registered New Motorcycles
8,897
8,713
 The most popular makes of motorcycles in Poland are:
Romet (1,139 registrations in 2013), Honda (794) and
BMW (759). The used vehicles market was dominated by
Honda (9,733 registrations in 2013), Yamaha (8,999) and
Suzuki (7,316).
8,961
7,750
7,390
 Overall, the number of motorcycles on Polish roads rose
by 1.3% y/y to 46,052 vehicles in 2013. One in six
motorcycle registered is a new vehicle (this ratio has been
maintained since 2006).
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: PZPM analysis based onCEP, interior ministry
- 31 -
Segment Forecasts
Buses and Coaches (units)
5,834
4,445
4,707
5,048
5,423
1,271
1,182
1,217
1,248
1,260
1,298
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
3,900
Sales
Output
Truck Manufacturing Industry (output in thou units)
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
112.0
107.0
103.9
102.2
101.2
107.8
Motorcycle Sales (units)
8,039
8,009
2016
2107
7,825
7,582
2013
7,659
2014
2015
Source: BMI (upper, lower), MarketLine (middle)
- 32 -
IV. Car Parts, Tyres, Leasing
- 33 -
Spare Car Parts
Sales of spare car parts for passenger cars in Poland* (%)
2009
2010
2011
2012
Wester European car makes
54
57
52
51
Central European car makes
2
0
0
0
Japanese and Korean car makes
11
13
10
10
Others (incl. universal car parts)
33
30
38
39
* - as exemplified by sales structure of Poland's biggest car parts vendor Inter Cars
Source: Inter Cars
- 34 -
 The value of car parts and accessories manufactured in
Poland reached its highest ever level of above PLN 60bn
(EUR 14.4bn) in 2013, rising by nearly 10% y/y, according
to forecasts of the Car Parts Distributors and Producers
Association (SDCM), based on the Central Statistical
Office's (GUS) data. They note that this would stand for
nearly PLN 15bn more than the value of automobile
production.
 The value of car parts and accessories exports came
close to PLN 35bn in 2013, the SDCM projects.
 In Poland, there are far more car servicing facilities per
number of cars than the European average, but the
number of these facilities is on the downside (though the
number of servicing stands per facility is rising), it also
reported.
 The biggest car parts distributors in Poland (in the
passenger car segment) are: Inter Cars, Fota, AD Polska
and Group Auto Union Polska, according to data
produced by research firm MotoFocus.pl.
 The top four distributors in the commercial vehicles sector
(LCVs, trucks) are: Opoltrans, Suder&Suder, Autos and
Inter Cars.
Car Tyres
Production of Tyres (thou items)
37,610
39,713
28,169
26,105
25,767
10.4
2011
29,783
29,435
2012
44,477
42,327
40,553
Sales of PC, LCV and SUV tyres (mn units)
11.4
2010
10.0
2009
258
389
349
2010
2011
249
2012
for passenger cars
for buses and trucks
for tractors
Total
11.6
2008
4,539
4,619
4,104
3,187
1,954
2009
304
11.8
2007
2013
12.1
2006
2005
10.9
9.0
Comments
The sales of tyres for passenger cars and LCVs in Poland fell by 5.65% y/y in 2013 (in the case of summer and sports tyres, the decline was 11.6%, while
in the case of winter tyres - 0.15%), the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers' Association (ETRMA) estimates.
At the same time, 4x4 tyres sales surged by 15.1%, sales of tyres for agricultural vehicles were up by 3.1% y/y, while for lorries, buses and coaches - up by
9.0% on the year, the ETRMA also said.
Source: GUS (left), Continental Opony Polska/ERTMA (right)
- 35 -
Tyres, Glass and Batteries
Production of Tyres, Glass and Batteries (PLN bn)*
Production Volumes*
6.0
2012
133.1
31.2
11.6
10.6
5.7
10.2
9.5
10.3
2011
126.0
8.4
6.2
35.0
6.6
6.0
2010
116.5
33.5
4.8
2009
99.2
28.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4.8
2008
115.7
28.5
* - 2013 data: estimates, 2014-2015: forecasts
Batteries (mn items)
Source: KPMG
- 36 -
Glass (thou tonnes)
Tyres (mn items)
Natural Gas Installations
Comments
LNG Vehicles (in mn)
 Poland is the world's third-largest player in the global market of
natural gas-fuelled vehicles, according to the World LP Gas
Association (WLPGA).
 The sales of LPG manufactured in Poland increased by 23.4% y/y to
358,000 tonnes in 2012, which covered 16.4% of the national LPG
demand, according to data provided by the Polish LPG Association
(POGP). PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos supplied the Polish market with
a definitely larger stream of the product, manufactured in their
domestic refineries.
2.33
2009
Lithuania
Belarus
2.48
2.62
2.47
2010
2011
2012
Total number of passenger cars registered in Poland
incl. LPG-fuelled vehicles
LPG imports to Poland* (thou tonnes)
Germany
18.74
18.19
17.24
16.49
LPG Market
* - data for Jan-Nov of each year
30
44
37
5,900
5,700
5,600
1,660
1,610
1,600
2010
2011
LPG sales (thou tonnes)
105
124
155
191
189
179
307
Kazakhstan
423
463
Russia
896
890
2012
2011
1,047
2010
Source: POGP (left: on the basis of finance ministry’s data)
- 37 -
2012
LPG filling stations
Motor Vehicle Leasing
Estimated Net Worth of Leased Vehicles (PLN mn)
20,721
18,691
19,453
15,898
12,220
7,600
8,850
8,800
2004
2005
16,874
16,857
2011
2012
12,117
5,100
3,500
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
Total Number of Vehicles Financed by Leasing Companies
19,607
18,625
15,692
10,450
8,242
7,243
931
2008
10,722
12,117
2009
6,515
677
559
2011
Trucks
Source: ZPL
- 38 -
7,592
6,018
Other vehicles
1,128
794
576
2010
Passenger delivery cars
10,886
9,599
9,315
4,293
3,317
16,411
16,406
2012
Total
2013
V. Main Players
- 39 -
Top M&A Deals
Top M&A Deals in 2013
Date
Target Company
Deal Type
Buyer
Institutional and private
investors
PGA Polska Sp. z o.o.
Guangxi Liugong Machinery
Co, Ltd
Krzysztof Moska - private
investor; Leszek Sobik private investor
Grzegorz Tarnawa - private
investor
Agencja Rozwoju Przemyslu
SA
Seller
25-Nov-13 Newag SA
IPO
08-Nov-13 FOTA LTD Sp. z o.o.
Acquisition
07-Nov-13 ZZN Transmission Plant
Acquisition
29-Oct-13 Autosan SA
Minority stake purchase
20-Sep-13 Autosan SA
Acquisition
28-Jun-13 Crist
24-Jun-13 Boryszew SA
Buy-back of shares
05-Jun-13 Morska Stocznia Remontowa SA
Merger
28-May-13 Admiral Boats SA
17-May-13 Stocznia Tczew
Acquisition
Szczecinska Stocznia
Remontowa Gryfia SA
Institutional and private
investors
Admiral Boats SA
16-May-13 Apo-Tessile Seating Assets
Acquisition
Sage Automotive Interiors Ltd Apo-Tessile
23-Apr-13 Isuzu Motors Polska
Acquisition
General Motors Corp
02-Apr-13 Admiral Boats SA
Aviva Investors Poland;
Private, institutional investors
15-Jan-13 GFWW Growag
Privatization
Blefona Management Ltd,
private investors
- 40 -
95.34
43.5
100
Bankruptcy trustee
100
Grzegorz Tarnawa
40
Sobieslaw Zasada SA
Impexmetal SA; Boryszew SA
Source: DealWatch
Multico SKA, private investors
Value EUR
Stake %
(mn)
23.29
30
21.24
20
10.13
100
2.55
15.5
100
Isuzu Motors Ltd
Treasury Ministry
100
261.59
40
1.31
11.75
1.28
85
Top 10 Companies and Top 5 Groups
Top 10 Firms in Sector (total 2012 revenues, PLN mn)
Company
Fiat Auto Poland
VW Poznan
GM Manufacturing Poland
VW Motor Polska
Fiat Powertrain Technologies Poland
Kulczyk Tradex*
Inter Cars
TRW Polska
Delphi Poland*
Mercedes Benz Polska
Top 5 Groups (based on combined 2012 revenue, PLN mn)
Revenue
Group
14,130
9,422
7,272
5,561
3,433
3,251
3,014
2,481
2,480
2,462
* - 2011 data
Revenue
Fiat
25,208
VW
19,705
GM Manufacturing Poland
8,850
TRW in Poland
4,381
Faurecia in Poland
3,572
Comments
To give a more complete picture of the automotive industry, we have decided to present top 5 capital groups rather than individual companies
on detailed slides on the following pages.
In order to establish the Top 5 ranking, we have combined (2012) revenues of all companies within these groups (i.e. with the same owners).
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications)
- 41 -
Fiat
Fiat Auto Poland Financial Performance (PLN mn)
Highlights
19,789
2010
Revenues
2011
EBIT
223
107
-79
-82
2009
 Fiat first came to Poland in 1921, when a cornerstone
was laid in Warsaw for Fiat's first factory outside Italy.
In 1973-2000, Fiat manufactured the Fiat 126 model
in Poland - it produced 3.32mn such vehicles. Today,
Fiat Auto Poland's plant in Tychy is the group's third
most important facility - after Italy and Brasil and one
of the biggest car plants in Europe.
14,130
172
84
876
820
427
312
2008
16,580
16,520
15,209
2012
 In 2013, Fiat was Poland's biggest manufacturer of
passenger cars. It produced a total of 295,700
vehicles (output was: Fiat 500 - 174,183 items; Lancia
Ypsilon - 61,361 items; Abarth 500 - 8,512 items). FAT
employs 3,340 persons (Fiat's 22 companies in
Poland employ a total of 14,000 persons). As much as
99.5% of the output was exported to 61 countries
worldwide.
Net result
Fiat Group Worldwide*
Rest of
Europe
Italy
Rest of
NAFTA Mercosur world
Revenues by
destination (%)
9
15
54
14
8
Employees (%)
29
12
34
22
3
Plants
44
33
48
19
14
R&D centres
37
15
16
5
4
 At the same time, Fiat was the 12th make in terms of
passenger car sales in Poland and the leader on the
LCVs market.
* - based on 2012 data
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications) (upper); Fiat (lower)
- 42 -
Fiat (cont'd)
Fiat Auto Poland: Registrations in 2013
Fiat: Passenger Cars: Top 5
Passenger Cars: Makes
Fiat
Abarth
Freemont
9,219
491
Bravo
561
Fiat 500
37
811
Panda
Alfa Romeo
2,500
1,017
Punto
Lancia
3,008
738
Fiat: LCVs: Top 5
Jeep
Dodge
1,106
Scudo
2
Panda Van
LCVs: Makes
Fiat
Others
Doblo
9,897
Fiorino
2
Ducato
Source: Fiat (sales in 2013)
- 43 -
243
754
1,224
1,391
6,050
Volkswagen
Volkswagen Poznan's Financial Performance (PLN mn)
9,956
8,030
7,832
371
348
2008
Highlights
 Volkswagen Poznan was established in 1993 as a joint
venture of Volkswagen AG and Tarpan Poznan. In 1996,
Volkswagen Poznan became in 100% a daughter company
of the Volkswagen AG concern, and one year later a part of
Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles unit. At present, the
factory is, after the Hannover factory, the second largest
factory of the concern, producing the commercial vehicles.
 The group owns 31 subsidiaries in Poland, dealing mostly
with retail sales of passenger cars and LCVs.
 Volkswagen Poznan is an commercial vehicle factory
manufacturing the Caddy and Caddy Maxi Delivery Vans
for car markets worldwide. Transporter T5 models are also
manufactured at the factory, of which versions of car bodies
with single and double cab are produced exclusively in
Poznan.
 The VW Group's production facilities in Poland are situated
in three locations. In Poznan’s, Antoninek quarter, the
group has its car body construction division, assembly
division and paint shop, while its casting plant is located in
Wilda quarter. In Swarzedz near Poznan, the group has
facilities where production of welded assemblies, assembly
of cockpits and production of special car bodies are
performed. The group’s logistics and suppliers centres are
also located in Swarzedz.
 VW's Skoda brand was the leader of the Polish automotive
market in 2013 for the seventh time and for the fifth time in
a row (it was the leader in 2005-2006 and 2009-2013).
9,422
7,741
269
250
2009
306
290
2010
Revenues
EBIT
298
281
257
2011
2012
310
Net profit
Group’s Market Shares (Q1-3 of each year, %)
Worldwide
12.7
12.6
26.1
25.6
Poland
Czech Rep.
45.4
49.9
24.7
24.3
Spain
38.6
37.4
Germany
2013
2012
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications) (left); VW (right)
- 44 -
General Motors/ Opel
Highlights
General Motors Manufacturing Poland's Financial Performance (PLN mn)
 GM launched its plant in Gliwice in 2007. It now
manufactures the Opel Astra IV model there. The firm now
employs nearly 3,000 people and does not plan any layoffs
(though it redistributed 300 employees to other facilities in
late 2012 after closing down the third shift in the Gliwice
plant).
 The Gliwice plant delivers: Astra IV hatchback, Astra GTC
coupe, Astra OPC, Astra IV sedan, Astra Classic Sedan.
GM's Gliwice-based plant manufactured Opel III and IV and
Cascada. In 2015, Opel V is due to kick off here.
 Opel's other Polish plant, in Tychy, was established in 1996
and started production in 1999. Since then the plant
manufactured over 2mn engines for Opel/ Vauxhall. The
engines are for the models Corsa, Meriva, Combo, Astra
and Zafira.
 GM has decided to invest EUR 250mn in a project aimed at
producing four-cylinder diesel engines in its Tychy
production plant (located in a special economic zone). The
new facility is due to kick off in 2017, with capacity of
200,000 units. GM stresses that this will be the biggest
undertaking in its Tychy plant. Including this project, GM's
investments in its Gliwice and Tychy plants in Poland will
exceed EUR 1.0bn.
 In 2013, General Motors purchased the entire stake in the
Tychy-based diesel engine plant from Isuzu, thus becoming
a manufacturer of both full automobiles and engines.
8,831
7,559
7,272
4,844
4 65
2009
243 306
280
225 408
2010
2011 -5
2012
Revenues
EBIT
Net result
Market shares in Q4/2013 (%)
Global market
11.4
South America
17.8
Russia
9.1
UK
Germany
Europe
12.3
6.9
7.9
U.S.
North America
17.2
16.7
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications) (left); GM (right)
- 45 -
TRW
TRW Polska's Financial Performance (PLN mn)
2,787
2009
2010
Revenues
EBIT
159
121
53
4
206
210
242
249
2,335
2008
 Headquartered in Livonia, Michigan, USA, the
Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in 25
countries and employs approximately 65,000 people
worldwide.
 TRW Automotive products include integrated vehicle
control and driver assist systems, braking systems,
steering systems, suspension systems, occupant
safety systems (seat belts and airbags), electronics,
engine components, fastening systems and
aftermarket replacement parts and services.
 TRW's planning assumptions for industry production
volumes in 2014 are around 16.8 million units in North
America and 19.5 million units in Europe, up by 4%
y/y and 1% y/y, respectively. The company continues
to expect expansion in vehicle production volumes in
China and rest of world regions.
 TRW has been present in Poland since 1990.
Currently, TRW has six plants in the country - in the
following locations: Pruszkow (suspension systems),
Czestochowa (two plants), Gliwice (breaking
systems), Czechowice-Dziedzice (steering systems)
and Bielsko-Biala (steering systems).
2,481
2011
23
116
2,926
2,854
Highlights
2012
Net profit
Group's Revenue Structure (PLN mn)
2012
2011
2010
2009
506
460
405
371
1,134
1,134
1,322
1,296
TRW Braking Systems Polska
2,481
2,787
2,926
2,854
TRW Steering Systems Poland
TRW Polska
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications)
- 46 -
Faurecia
Faurecia Walbrzych's Financial Performance (PLN mn)
1,886
Highlights
1,878
 Faurecia was formed in 1997 following a merger between
Bertrand Faure - a specialist in spring-based seat cushions
for the automotive industry - and ECIA - a Peugeot
subsidiary and manufacturer of seats, front ends and
vehicle interiors with a reputation as one of Europe’s
leading names in exhaust systems.
 With 320 sites including 30 R&D centres in 34 countries
around the world, Faurecia is now a global leader in its four
areas of business: automotive seating, interior systems,
automotive exteriors and emissions control technologies.
Faurecia is the world’s number one supplier of seat frames
and mechanisms, emissions control technologies and
vehicle interiors. The Group is also the world’s third-largest
supplier of complete seat systems and is Europe’s leading
name in automotive exteriors.
 The Faurecia Group's total sales for FY 2013 rose by 5%
y/y to EUR 18.03 billion. Its EBIT reached EUR 538 million,
standing for operating margin of 3%. Net income amounted
to EUR 88 million.
 Faurecia also continued to diversify its customer base:
Europe provided 54% of its total product sales in 2013,
down from 56% in 2012 (with Asia's share growing to 13%
from 10%, respectively).
 In Poland, the Faurecia group operates through ten
production plants (in Grojec, Walbrzych, Legnica and
Gorzow Wielkopolski). Its 10th plant was launched in
Legnica in July, 2013; it employs 450 persons (thus
approaching a total of 7,000 employees in Poland).
1,583
1,496
28 31
31 27
2009
2011 -15
2010
Revenues
49 64
31
EBIT
2012
Net results
Product Sales by Region (EUR mn)
Rest of World
South America
Asia
151
189
241
717
662
639
1,706
1,388
1,117
North America
2,579
3,707
3,646
7,412
7,412
7,815
Europe
2013
2012
2011
Source: EMIS (based on official state publications) (left); Faurecia (right)
- 47 -
Contact:
Corporate Headquarters
Nestor House
Playhouse Yard
London EC4V 5EX
UK
Voice: +44 207 779 8471
Fax: +44 207 779 8224
Asia Headquarters
Eucharistic Congress Bldg. No.
III
4th Floor, 5 Convent Street
Mumbai 400 001
India
Voice: +91 22 22881123
Fax: +91 22 22881137
Americas Headquarters
225 Park Avenue South
New York, New York 10003
US
Voice: +1 212 610 2900
Fax: +1 212 610 2950
Disclaimer:
The material is based on sources which we believe are reliable, but no warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy or completeness
of the information. The views expressed are our best judgment as of the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. EMIS and Euromoney Institutional
Investor PLC take no responsibility for decisions made on the basis of these opinions.
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. A Euromoney Institutional Investor company.
About EMIS Insight
EMIS Insight is a unit of EMIS that produces proprietary strategic research and analysis. The service features market overviews, industry trend analysis, legislation
and profiles of the leading sector companies provided by locally-based analysts.
About EMIS
Founded in 1994, EMIS (formerly known as ISI Emerging Markets) was acquired by Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC in 1999. EMIS works from over 15 offices
around the world to deliver electronic information products, by subscription, to institutional customers globally. EMIS provides hard-to-get information covering more
than 100 emerging markets. Its flagship products are EMIS Intelligence and EMIS Professional.
EMIS clients include top investment banks, corporations, law firms, consultants, investment and insurance companies, universities and libraries, multilateral
organizations, and others.
- 48 -

Automotive Sector

Transcription

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Powiatowy Ośrodek Sportu i Zarządzania Lokalami w Miętnem

Newsletter no. 4 - Kujawska Szkoła Wyższa we Włocławku

Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards

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