Tulsa Metro Chamber 2009 Economic Profile

2009 Economic Profile
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$29,041,096
On average, that’s how much leaves our local business
economy each day. $10.6 billion annually. To Dallas for
paper products. To Kansas City for wood screws. Down
the road, out of sight, helping some other community
thrive.
5%
BRING
B ACK
Now imagine bringing 5 percent of
your out-of-area business spending
back home, to the greater Tulsa area.
Only 5 percent. We could enrich our
tax base and improve public services,
We’re not asking local businesses to spend more, or
pay more here if you can find better quality and value
there, out of town (and some neighboring vendors
won’t even have what you need). We’re simply asking
you to give local companies a chance. If you can get
it here, and it meets your needs, your standards and
your price, why not buy here?
We’re asking executives and purchasing agents to
spend a little time pinpointing dollars sent out of our
local area. When you find a 5 percent niche, the rest
is easy. Our web site matches you with local vendors
offering what you need. There’s even a hotline for
unique requirements and manufacturing challenges.
Visit www.LetsDoBusinessTulsa.com for details.
Every day we wait, another $29 million improves
someone else’s economy. It’s time to say …
streets and parks. We could attract
new business and create more jobs.
We could realize how good we are,
and how great we can be.
© Tulsa Metro Chamber 2008 - Two West Second St., Ste. 150 - Tulsa, OK 74103 - 918.585.1201
2009 ECONOMIC SUMMARY WITH FORECASTS FOR 2009-2012
The Tulsa MSA comprises seven counties: Creek, Okmulgee, Osage,
Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa and Wagoner, whose aggregate population is
nationwide and that they certainly are important locally.
Tulsa’s infrastructure for business includes the Port of Catoosa,
estimated to be 905,755 or 25.1 percent of the population of the state
an inland port that makes bulk shipping to and from coastal ports
of Oklahoma. The gross product or value of all goods and services
accessible and economical, and two central networks for broadband
produced in the seven-county MSA is $33.6 billion (constant dollars in
interconnect. Forbes Magazine in 2007 ranked Tulsa as the sixth
2007), or 29.0 percent of the Oklahoma economy.
best city for jobs among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the
Tulsa’s major industries are aerospace, including aerospace
country. The ranking takes into account median household income,
manufacturing and air transportation; health care; telecommunications;
unemployment, income growth, cost of living, and job growth. In 2008,
petroleum and natural gas; and architectural and structural metals
as growth has slowed nationwide, Tulsa has fared better than the
manufacturing. Several clusters, or groups of companies within
nation, being ranked also by Forbes in 2008 as the fifth best metro area
industries that buy or sell to each other in the manufacture of goods
of the 200 largest in the country to weather the recession.
for export from the area, have disproportionately large concentrations
Economic growth in 2006 and 2007 as measured by employment
of employment relative to the U.S. concentrations and are positioned
positioned Tulsa as one of the fastest growing job markets in the
to within the Tulsa MSA: Aerospace parts manufacturing is 136
country. Appreciably slower demand growth in 2008 set the stage for
percent more concentrated in the Tulsa MSA than in the U.S.; oil
slowing but positive growth in employment in 2008 of just under 0.5
and gas production and machinery manufacturing, nine times more
percent; U.S. employment is expected to contract by 1.5 percent in
concentrated; and pump and compressor manufacturing, 15.5 times
2008. With its cost of doing business at seven percent under the U.S.
more concentrated. Tulsa’s concentration of fabricated metal product
average due to low rent, energy costs and taxes, Tulsa continued in
manufacturing is 2.4 times the U.S. concentration, but its heat-
2008 to be a prime location for industry prospects looking to relocate
exchanger manufacturing sub-cluster is 34.7 times more concentrated
or expand, albeit at a slower pace. In 2009, Tulsa’s gross product of
than at the U.S. level. General qualities that attract new companies to
goods and services should grow 1.7 percent to $34.2 billion. After
grow these clusters and others to Tulsa are a sound infrastructure, a
growth of 0.4 percent in 2008, employment could decline by 0.2 percent
cost of doing business that is seven percent below the U.S. average and
as slower growth globally prompts Tulsa businesses to cut costs in
a cost of living that is 11 percent below the U.S. average. The strong
order to maintain margins and their quite favorable positions in the
concentrations of employment in these Tulsa-area clusters indicate that
marketplace.
likely the Tulsa-area clusters are important to their respective industries
Gross Product
Tulsa MSA gross product, the value of all goods and services produced in Tulsa, is
percent faster than the U.S.’s rate of 2.5 percent. In 2008, growth slowed in Tulsa to 3.1
estimated to be $33.6 billion (adjusted for inflation) in 2008, up 3.1 percent from 2007.
percent, the slowest rate since 2004, but more than double the U.S. rate of 1.3 percent.
After the Tulsa economy “bottomed out” in 2003 at a gross-product growth rate of
1.5 percent, Tulsa gross product grew at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent, or 67
Gross Metro Product
Year
Tulsa MSA
growth rate
OK
growth rate
U.S.
growth rate
Gross Product Projections
In 2009, growth in Tulsa’s gross product will slow to
GROSS PRODUCT GROWTH RATES
2003-2008*, FORECAST 2009
1.7 percent, the lowest rate since contraction in gross
8%
product in 2003, but still higher than the state’s rate
US
7%
of 1.2 percent and -1.0 percent for the U.S. Tulsa gross
product will grow at an average annual growth rate of
6%
OK
5%
Tulsa MSA
2.3 percent for years 2009 through 2012 as consumer
4%
and business confidence builds and new jobs are created.
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*2008 is estimated.
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
Projections
Year
2003
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg Growth
OK
Annual Avg Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg Growth
*2008 is estimated.
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
2
www.tulsachamber.com
Wage and Salary Employment
Wage and salary employment in the seven-county Tulsa MSA grew by 0.4 percent in 2008,
Tulsa has added 34,810 jobs. Of these jobs, over 30 percent or 10,560 jobs were in goods-
to a new high level of 427,723. Tulsa-area employment expanded, although not as much as
producing industries of mining, construction and manufacturing. Manufacturing accounted
state employment, which grew at 1.1 percent. Employment nationwide contracted by 0.1
for 4,260 of those jobs, or 40 percent. The number of service-producing jobs began to grow
percent. Since 2003, the lowest employment year for total employment in the last downturn,
after 2003, and over 24,250 jobs were added in years 2004-2008, a 9.3 percent gain.
Total Wage & Salary Employment
Year
Tulsa MSA
Change
OK
Change
U.S.
Change
Wage and Salary Employment Projections
Employment in the Tulsa MSA was up 1,894 jobs in 2008, up 0.4 percent from 2007.
WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2009-2012
Oklahoma employment grew faster than Tulsa’s rate in 2008, up 1.1 percent; the nation,
down 0.1 percent. In the four years 2009-2012, Tulsa-area employment is expected to
1.5%
grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, with new jobs following capital spending
by area industries, including financial, business and professional, and education and
health services. Over the four-year forecast period, employment will grow 1.3 percent in
1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
Oklahoma and 0.5 percent in the U.S.
0.3%
0.0%
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
Projections
Year
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg Growth
OK
Annual Avg Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg Growth
*2008 estimated
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
3
Industry Mix Employment
In years 2004 through 2008, Tulsa-area construction, mining, business & professional
industries for growth. For the same five-year period, air transportation and
services and education & health services all grew at an average annual rate of three percent
information had average annual job losses that were three percent or more.
or more. These four sectors were growth sectors through 2008 and continue to be target
Tulsa MSA Growth in Employment by Industry, 2004-2008
Forecasted Growth 2009-2012
2003
annual growth
2004-2008
2008*
annual growth
2009-2012
2012
*2008 values estimated. source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Oklahoma State University, Tulsa Metro Chamber
Industry Mix Employment Projections
In the years 2004 through 2008, the employment sectors Business and Professional
the fastest growing sectors in the Tulsa MSA through 2012, growing collectively at 2.5
Services, Education and Health Services, and construction, grew collectively at and
percent. Telecommunication, a subsector within Information, is expected to decline one
average rate of 3.5 percent. The same three sectors will grow at 1.9 percent in the four
percent annually through 2012. Manufacturing should decline 0.5 percent, reflecting broad
years 2009-2012. Construction and Education and Health Services are forecasted to be
productivity gains realized in average gains in real output of 0.4 percent annually.
JOB GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, TULSA MSA
2009 THROUGH 2012
construction
mining
manufacturing
wholesale
retail
utilities
transportation, warehousing
air transportation
information
telecommunication
finance & insurance
business & professional svc
education & health svc
leisure & hospitality
government
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Oklahoma State University, Tulsa Metro Chamber
4
www.tulsachamber.com
Unemployment
With sales and shipments of Tulsa-produced goods surging in 2004, manufacturers
had to begin hiring in 2005. The surge has continued and the growth has spread
throughout the economy, beyond manufacturing to professional and business services
and health care. Strong growth in construction reflects the capital expansion that
preceded more growth in employment. Through 2006 the labor force grew and many
who had been looking for work found work, producing the lowest unemployment
rate (3.8 percent) since 2001. In 2007, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent as
job seekers entered the labor force in a tight labor market in which wages remained
firm as businesses sought to fill open positions in engineering, technical services
and healthcare. In 2008, the unemployment rate averaged 3.8 percent in a market
that was tight for many skilled technical jobs. Demand for those jobs eased with the
global financial crisis finally affecting Tulsa. The year 2008 ended with a December
unemployment rate of 4.6 percent as the labor force contracted as residence-survey
based employment dropped and unemployment rose.
Unemployment
Year
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
*2008 Value Estimated.
Unemployment Projections
The Tulsa MSA unemployment rate should average 5.1 percent in 2009 and remain
in a range between 4.8 percent and 5.5 percent through 2012. New job seekers will
begin to grow the labor force after a drop in the labor force in 2009 as hiring slows
somewhat, keeping the unemployment rate above 4.6 percent but below 5.6 percent,
a satisfactory range that will allow for slow but steady growth.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
WITH ESTIMATE FOR 2008, FORECASTS FOR 2009, 2012
8%
U.S.
7%
OK
6%
Tulsa MSA
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2008
2009
2012
source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research.
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
5
Labor Force
force relative to the population, and are an indication of expected job growth. The LFPR has
Labor force is defined as the sum of persons who are 18 years old or older who are
working and those persons who are not currently working but who are actively seeking
dropped consistently throughout the last ten years. These declines are attributed greatly to
work. Accompanying low unemployment rates in 2006 and 2007 was a growing labor force
the facts that all working-age females who can enter the workforce who had been working
in which a growing number of unemployed persons found work and new jobs were created.
in the home have entered the workforce and are either looking for work or are in jobs, and
In 2008, the unemployment rate averaged 3.8 for the year accompanied by a labor force that
baby boomers are beginning retire from the work force. A declining LFPR is forecasted
declined 2.5 percent from 2007.
through 2012 as more baby boomers retire than can be replaced by young workers entering
The labor-force participation rate (LFPR) measures the labor force as a percentage of the
the labor force. Firmer wages in tight labor markets and recently disheveled retirement
funds will keep some baby boomers in the workplace longer, slowing the decline.
area population. Changes in the annual LFPR measure changes in the growth of the labor
Labor Force
Year
Tulsa MSA
Change
OK
Change
U.S.
Change
Labor Force Projections
The Tulsa-area labor force in 2009 will decline 0.1 percent from 2008 as the economy
retrenches and comes out of a slowdown effected by the global economic crisis. The prospects
for new job creation from 2010 to 2012 will build slowly as companies add new capital
investment bring persons back into the labor force with expectations of gainful employment.
LABOR FORCE
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2009-2012
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
Many baby-boomers will choose to continue to work beyond standard retirement age,
0.5%
supporting a steady or slightly growing labor through 2012. The labor force should grow at
0.4%
an average annual rate of 0.2 percent in years 2009 through 2012. Over the same period,
0.3%
0.2%
population should grow more rapidly than the labor force, as reflected in a decline in the
0.1%
labor-force participation rate from 47.5 percent in 2008 to 46.5 percent in 2012.
0.0%
Projections
Year
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research.
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg Growth
OK
Annual Avg Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg Growth
* 2008 values estimated.
source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
6
www.tulsachamber.com
Population
The Tulsa MSA population grew 1.2 percent in 2008 to 916,939, up from 905,755 in
Economy.com, Tulsa experienced a net in-migration into the Tulsa MSA
2007. Based on data collected in surveys by the Bureau of the Census and estimates by
in 2007 of 3,859 persons, of which 24 percent were foreign immigrants.
Population Growth
Year
Tulsa MSA
Change
OK
Change
U.S.
Change
Population Growth Projections
For the forecast years of 2009-2012, the Tulsa MSA population should grow at
POPULATION
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH, 2009-2012
an average annual rate of 0.7 percent, surpassing the Oklahoma forecasted rate of
0.5 percent. The U.S. population growth rate is forecasted to average 0.9 percent
1.0%
annually for years 2009-2012.
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
source: Bureau of the Census, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
Projections
Year
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg Growth
OK
Annual Avg Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg Growth
*2008 values estimated.
source: Bureau of the Census, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
7
Per Capita Income
Real (inflation-adjusted) per capita income in the Tulsa MSA grew 0.3 percent in 2008,
technical services and healthcare went unfilled. In 2008, the sharp decline in growth of
down from 3.5 percent in 2007. A tight labor market kept wages and salaries firm in
income reflected the uncertainty that the global financial crisis and sharply declining oil
2007 as markets for Tulsa products and services flourished and many jobs in engineering,
and gas prices in the last half of the year.
Real Per Capita Income
Year
Tulsa Co.
Change
Tulsa MSA
Change
OK
Change
U.S.
Change
Real Per Capita Income Projections
Real per capita income in the Tulsa MSA is expected to grow 2.3 percent in
PER CAPITA INCOME
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2009-2012
2009 and at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent for the four-year period 2009
through 2012. Income will grow with employment growth, and employment
growth will be attributable to increased business spending that will occur as
the world economy bottoms out and begins to expand, albeit at a very slow
2.5%
2.0%
pace. Long-term-capital and labor expansion among Tulsa industries will occur
1.5%
slowly but steadily as energy prices firm and show steady, demand-driven
1.0%
growth.
0.5%
0.0%
Tulsa County
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research,
Economy.com, Tulsa Metro Chamber.
Projections
Year
Tulsa County
Annual Avg
Growth
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg
Growth
OK
Annual Avg
Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg
Growth
*2008 values estimated.
source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber
8
www.tulsachamber.com
Average Weekly Earnings in Manufacturing
Average weekly earnings from manufacturing increased by 1.8 percent in 2008, a year
was very productive in 2007 and employers were willing to pay for that productivity.
in which the Tulsa MSA manufacturing sector showed flat growth over 2007. Aggressive
Average weekly earnings in 2007 were up 4.1 percent over 2006 earnings. The sharply
hiring by manufacturers began in 2006, resulting in 2,600 jobs, more than a fivefold
lower increase of 1.8 percent in 2008 reflects manufacturers’ reaction to much slower
increase of 2005. Tulsa’s tight labor market in 2006 and 2007 (unemployment rates of
global economic growth. Payroll changes are often the first cost-cutting measure in
4.0 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively) and strong demand for Tulsa’s production
maintaining competitivity.
meant that many positions remained unfilled. Employment in manufacturing jobs
Average Weekly Earnings in Manufacturing (dollars)
Year
Tulsa MSA
Change
OK
Change
U.S.
Change
Projections of Average Weekly Earnings in Manufacturing
Average weekly earnings in manufacturing in the Tulsa MSA are forecasted to grow
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS, MANUFACTURING
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2009-2012
at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent in years 2009 through 2012. A growing work
force to meet growing manufactured-product sales requirements in 2009 through 2012
2.0%
will stabilize the length of the work week, keeping it at 40 hours, whereas in recent
1.5%
years the work week averaged 41 to 42 hours. Productivity growth will stabilize with
tempered economic growth and a moderate level of manufacturing employment to
1.0%
meet sales and shipment schedules.
0.5%
0.0%
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,
Tulsa Metro Chamber
Projections
Year
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg Growth
OK
Annual Avg Growth
U.S.
Annual Avg Growth
*2008 values estimated.
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Tulsa Metro Chamber
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
9
Retail Sales
Retail sales in the Tulsa MSA in 2008 grew 7.3 percent, up from growth in 2007 of
retail industry grew 6.5 percent; and Tulsa City, 5.1 percent. Tulsa City’s growth of
3.9 percent. Consistently high levels of income in Tulsa and a strong market for Tulsa
5.1 percent in 2008 as compared to the metro area’s rate of 7.3 percent reflects the
products and services led to relatively strong levels of retail sales in years 2006-2008.
growing retail sectors in suburban cities.
Retail sales in the U.S. grew 0.5 percent in 2008 as recession took hold. The Oklahoma
Retail Sales (dollars)
Year
Tulsa City
Change
Tulsa MSA
Change
Oklahoma
Change
U.S.
Change
Retail Sales Projections
Retail sales in 2009 in the Tulsa MSA and city are expected to grow more
RETAIL SALES AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2009-2012
slowly than in 2008, but be up over 2008 sales by 5.0 percent and 3.2 percent,
respectively. Business investment expenditures, hiring and personal income
are expected to continue to expand throughout the 2009-2012 forecast period,
although appreciably more slowly than in 2006-2007, and retail spending is
5%
4%
expected to grow accordingly. Average annual growth through 2012 should
3%
be 4.1 percent for the Tulsa MSA and 3.5 percent for the City of Tulsa; for the state
2%
and the nation, 3.9 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
1%
0%
Tulsa City
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
source: Center for Management and Economic Research, OSU Center for Applied Economic
Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber.
Projections
year
City of Tulsa
Tulsa City
Annual Avg
Growth
Tulsa MSA
Tulsa MSA
Annual Avg
Growth
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Annual Avg
Growth
U.S.
U.S. Annual Avg
Growth
*2008 values estimated.
source: Center for Management and Economic Research, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber
10
www.tulsachamber.com
Residential Real Estate
mortgage crisis that has occurred in the rest of the country. Tulsa in 2007 and 2008
The residential real estate market in the Tulsa MSA declined in the total permits
issued and the value of permits by 28.3 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively. These
did not reflect the downturns in housing markets that other parts of the country
declines are large, but the housing market is adjusting in an orderly manner to the
experienced and the average selling price for a single-family home in 2008 was four
economic slowdown that is the result of changing credit markets and the housing/
percent higher than in 2007.
New Residential Building Permits, Tulsa MSA
Year
no. residential building
permits*
growth
Value ($million)
growth
New Residential Building Permits, Tulsa MSA Projections
In 2009 the year-end total number of residential permits is expected continue
VALUE OF RESIDENTIAL PERMITS ($MILLION)
TULSA MSA: 2007, 2008 AND 2009-2012 FORECASTS
its decline, down 10 percent from 2008. Accompanying the decline in number
of permits in 2009 will be a smaller decline in value of permits of 4.5 percent,
800
indicating that although the number of homes built will be smaller, the average new
700
home likely will be larger and higher quality. The number of residential building
600
permits in the Tulsa MSA is expected to decline in 2009, remain the same in 2010 and
500
grow in 2011 and 2012, yielding in forecast years 2009-2012 an average annual rate
of -0.7 percent. Over the same period, permit values should increase by 1.6 percent.
400
300
200
100
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
source: Bureau of the Census, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber
Projections
Year
2007
Permits*
Annual Avg Growth
Value of Permits*
Annual Avg Growth
*Includes Multi-Family Units
source: Bureau of the Census, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Economy.com, Tulsa Metro Chamber
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
11
Non-Residential Real Estate
The value of new non-residential contracts in the Tulsa MSA increased in 2008
by 17.4 percent, to $795.6 million. The increase reflects the Tulsa economy’s
income and revenue growth that reflect investors’ expectation that the Tulsa
economy can successfully weather the current recession.
strength relative to the U.S. in 2008. Investments have been put in place for future
Non-residential Real Estate Construction Contracts Awarded, Tulsa MSA
YEAR
Non-residential Contract Value ($million)
Change
Non-Residential Real Estate Projections
New non-residential construction is expected to grow 6.6 percent in 2009 and
2007, 2008 VALUE OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONTRACTS
($MILLION) WITH FORECASTS FOR 2009-2012 TULSA MSA
5.1 percent over the four-year forecast period 2009-2012. (Values in the table for
2005 and after are forecasts for the seven-county MSA; values before 2005 are for
the five-county MSA definition.)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
source: McGraw-Hill, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber
Projections
Year
Non-residential Permit Value ($million)
Annual Avg Growth
source: McGraw-Hill, OSU Center for Applied Economic Research, Tulsa Metro Chamber
12
www.tulsachamber.com
Total Bankruptcies
a sharp drop in filings. Filings in Northeastern Oklahoma have trended higher since 2006,
A change late in 2005 in bankruptcy law which makes filing for bankruptcy more
difficult,. prompted a surge of bankruptcy filings in 2005 prior to the change. Consequently,
up 29.9 percent in 2007 and 24.2 percent in 2008. The year-over-year change in total
a more reasonable level of bankruptcy filings based on history occurred in 2006, reflecting
bankruptcies in 2008 through the third quarter is an increase of 30.7 percent for the U.S.
Total Bankruptcy Filings
YEAR
NE OK
Change
U.S.
Change
* Northeastern OK data through December 2008; U.S. data through June 2008. Growth based on twelve months year-to-date and three quarters, respectively. Source: U.S. bankruptcy courts.
Business Bankruptcies
The business-bankruptcy component of total bankruptcies constituted about
3.4 percent of all bankruptcies in 2008 for Northeastern Oklahoma and the
number was down from 120 in 2007 to 112 in 2008, a 6.7 percent decline. Through
Business Bankruptcy Filings
YEAR
NE OK
Change
U.S.
Change
third-quarter 2008, U.S. business bankruptcies accounted for 3.7 percent of all
bankruptcies in the nation and had risen 48.7 percent from a year earlier.
Changes in business bankruptcies act as a leading indicator of business
trends. Business bankruptcies generally are filed by small businesses that are
under-capitalized and under-managed. Their vulnerability to subtly adverse
market conditions make them the first to go out of business, portending
growing adversity which may affect all businesses. Conversely, declines in
business bankruptcies may signify better economic conditions ahead. The
drop in business bankruptcy filings in northeastern Oklahoma from 120
in 2007 to a projected level of 112 in 2008 is encouraging in light of the
48.7-percent increase at the U.S. level. Forecasted average annual growth for
employment of a 0.9 percent in 2009-2012 and a gross product forecast of
2.3 percent annual growth through the same period that are stronger than
the U.S. should keep Tulsa-area business bankruptcies at a manageable level
of under 150 annually through the forecast period.
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
* Northeastern OK data through December 2008; U.S. data through September 2007. Growth based on eleven
months year-to-date, three quarters, respectively. Source: U.S. bankruptcy courts.
13
Banking
The 2008 Tulsa economy grew 3.1 percent in terms of
RETURN ON AVERAGE BANK ASSETS
TULSA, OKLAHOMA, U.S., 2005-2008*
real gross product and 0.4 percent in employment. This
modest growth relative to years 2006 and 2007 and can
1.5%
2009
be transcribed into a year of slower growth for Tulsa MSA
banks in 2008. Return on assets for banks statewide and
nationally through third quarter 2008 was 1.16 percent and
1.2%
2008
2007
0.9%
0.43 percent, respectively, and Tulsa banks’ return on assets
slowed from 1.25 percent to 0.65 percent over year earlier
levels. Through September 2008, returns declined from a
2006
0.6%
0.3%
year earlier for the state, falling to 1.16 percent from 1.40
percent while the U.S rate of return fell somewhat more
0.0%
sharply from 1.22 percent to 0.43 percent due greatly to the
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
* 2008 data through September.
source: Highline Data, LLC, Austin, TX
mortgage and financial slump that developed in the third
quarter of 2007, growing to the financial crisis of 2008.
Returns are expected to stay at current levels in 2009 for
state and Tulsa banks as the economy pulls slowly out of its
current slowdown.
Return on Average Assets for Oklahoma Banks
Year
14
Tulsa MSA
OK
U.S.
www.tulsachamber.com
Travel Industry
growing at a rate that surpassed growth in 2007. The 2008 count of total air passengers
was down 1.2 percent from 2007. The demand for hotel rooms for the same period was up
over 2007. As the Tulsa MSA economy experiences very slow growth in 2009, travel-industry
growth will languish at rates lower than or equal to growth rates in 2008.
4.7 percent; room revenue, up 6.5 percent; and the hotel occupancy rate, up 1.2 percent
Travel Industry
Year
Air Passengers
Room Demand
Room Revenue
Hotel Occupation Rate
source: City of Tulsa, Smith Travel Research
GROWTH RATES FOR KEY TRAVEL INDUSTRY INDICATORS
TULSA MSA, 2005-2008
20%
2008
15%
2007
2006
10%
2005
5%
0%
-5%
Air Passengers
Room Demand
Room Revenue
Hotel Occupation Rate
source: City of Tulsa, Smith Travel Research
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
15
Port of Catoosa
The Port of Catoosa is an inland port that includes terminal facilities spreading over 500 acres.
The Port is a foreign trade zone created especially for industries that benefit from water
transportation: producers of bulk, raw commodities such as grain, steel and fertilizer; or
manufacturers of heavy equipment. The volume of shipments is subject not only to variations
in business conditions, but to seasonality, agricultural crop conditions and agricultural and
foreign trade policy. In 2007, barge tonnage through the Port was 2,010,505 tons, down
13.4 percent from 2006. The decline in tonnage in 2007 was due to the virtual stoppage of
waterway transportation during the May-July floods. Growth likely turn positive in 2008,
although it will be modest as global growth measurably slows.
Barge Tonnage, Port of Catoosa
Year
Tons
Change
ANNUAL BARGE TONNAGE
PORT OF CATOOSA 1996-2008
2500000
2,050,394
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
source: Port of Catoosa
16
www.tulsachamber.com
JANUARY 2009 ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL MEDIAN BASE SALARIES ($), TULSA MSA (1)
Accountant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,151
Accounting Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,580
Administrative Assistant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,608
Aircraft Mechanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45,261
Automobile Mechanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,977
Bank Teller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,339
Benefits Analyst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41,150
Biologist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41,571
Bookkeeper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,276
Bus Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,572
Buyer/Purchasing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45,327
Carpenter (Gen/Maint) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,051
Cashier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,008
Chemical Engineer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,022
Chemical Technician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,576
Chemist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,641
Civil Engineer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53,700
Computer Operator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,690
Computer Programmer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56,595
Computer Programmer, Lead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,564
Construction Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,208
Controller, Top Corporate (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131,518
Corporate Attorney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,751
Cost Estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,123
Data Entry Operator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,045
Dental Assistant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,694
Dental Hygienist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,350
Drafter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41,451
Electrical Engineer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62,978
Electrician, Certified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,747
Electronics Assembler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,226
Electronics Technician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,281
Engineering Technician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37,161
Executive Secretary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,965
File Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,254
Food Service Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,945
Fork Lift Operator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,085
Gate Guard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,695
General Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,405
General/Institution Cook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,931
Graphic Designer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,808
Heavy Truck Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,327
Insurance Claims Adjuster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37,932
Internal Auditor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50,702
Janitor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,943
Librarian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,173
Light Truck Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,111
Machine Tool Operator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,119
Machinery Mechanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,357
Maintenance Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,540
Market Research Analyst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,558
Materials Handler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,827
Mechanical Engineer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60,812
Medical Lab Technician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,146
Millwright . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,097
Office Manager . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44,855
Order Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,016
Painter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,499
Payroll Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,899
PC Specialist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,049
Personnel Analyst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,885
Personnel Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,309
Pharmacist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,480
Physical Therapist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,151
Physician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122,345
Physician's Assistant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,047
Physicist, PhD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,198
Plumber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,999
Primary School Teacher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,273
Production Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,336
Property Manager . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41,751
Receptionist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,819
Registered Nurse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,345
Sales Representative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,525
Secondary School Teacher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,607
Secretary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,699
Secretary to CEO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,603
Security Guard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,479
Shipping Clerk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,474
Stationary Engineer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,566
Systems Analyst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53,019
Systems Analyst, Lead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,587
Tool & Die Maker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,248
Warehouse Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,549
Welder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32,935
Word Processor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,257
(1) For employee with three years' experience.
(2) For controller of company with $100 million revenue.
source: Economic Research Institute, Redmond, WA, January 1, 2009
800.624.6822 / 918.585.1201
17
Central Parking System of Oklahoma, Inc.
20 East Second Street
Tulsa, OK 74103
(918) 582-6515
Client Focused / Instruction Driven / Technology Empowered
Tulsa Tech assists with...
Tulsa Tech has been helping businesses and their
workforce for over forty years. Through the combined
efforts of our Business & Industry Services department
and full-time/evening/weekend class offerings, Tulsa
Tech has played a key role in economic development
efforts, both locally and statewide through the
CareerTech system.
•Customized Industry Training
--Human Resources
--Manufacturing
--ISO & Quality
--Environmental, Health & Safety
•Adult & Career Development
--Open enrollment business-related & short courses
•Small Business Assistance
--Business development & entrepreneurial services
--Small business management/self-employment
training programs
•Full-time Programs
--Providing an on-going pipeline of technically
competent, work-ready, new & incumbent
employees. College credit available for most
programs. Open to high school students
& adults.
For more information contact Business
& Industry Services at 918.828.5400 or
visit our website at www.tulsatech.edu
(918) 605-SIGN • www.whistlersign.com