13) Managing the Mana Ratio

 13) Managing the Mana Ratio Now that we have studied the processes of planning, it’s time to augment our plans by learning the specifics of managing the mana ratio. ​
Our goal is to understand what influences the optimal mana ratio­ what factors affect the proportion of mana producers to mana consumers so that we can maximize our chances of using all of our mana and casting all of our spells. In Magic, lands are the basic mana producers. Every turn we get to play one land which can be tapped to produce one mana to be spent immediately. Every turn each land untaps to be used again, so every subsequent turn our production capabilities can increase. There are also spells that produce mana­ creatures, artifacts, and one use spells, but most of these also consume mana to get started, so lands are the purest production unit. In general, mana ​
production ​
increases each turn with new land drops and ramp, but may slow when running out of cards later. However, mana p
​roduction c​an also peak on the first turn with short term mana boosts and then decrease throughout the game Spells are the basic mana consumers. Our turn by turn mana production is consumed by spells and abilities with consumption costs. Lower mana consumption costs require less mana production; higher mana consumption costs require more mana production. There are also lands that consume mana, turning into creatures or offering useful abilities. But most lands are producers primarily, so spells are the purest consumption unit. 1 Consumption ​
is like our turn by turn “mana curve” except instead of measuring the number of possible cards per turn, we measure the amount of mana we are hoping to ​
consume e
​ach turn . A deck with 16 one mana plays may be hoping to ​
consume o
​nly one mana on the first turn. In any production / consumption system, overproduction and underproduction are inefficient­ bring too much food to market and the surplus spoils; bring too little food and the shortage means people go without food. Mana works the same. Excess mana production over consumption and the surplus empties from our mana pool forever; not enough mana production to consumption and the shortage prevents us from casting our spells. In Magic, wasted mana is wasted mana. When ​
consumption ​
wants exceeds p
​roduction a
​bilities, there is a mana ​
shortage.​
When production ​
abilities exceed ​
consumption w
​ants, there is a mana ​
surplus.​
Either can happen at any stage in the game. Either ​
shortage ​
or ​
surplus ​
equates to ​
waste In an optimal mana system there is no ​
waste ​
because production matches consumption throughout the game. However, in practice this may be impossible ​
because of format restrictions, and random chance. It’s pretty normal to have some shortage or surplus every game, or even intentionally built into the game plan, but our goal is to minimize it in consideration with our other plans. So our goal is not to have perfect mana usage, ​
we merely strive to optimize​
as best as we can. 2 When mana ​
production ​
ability matches mana ​
consumption ​
wants, there is no w
​aste For instance, the ​
Green Summer deck (list in chapter 10) is optimized to match increasing production and increasing consumption with 1 mana on turn 1, 3 mana on turn 2, and 6 mana on turn 3 (left). Alternatively, the ​
All in Goblin deck (list in chapter 9) is optimized to produce and consume a huge burst of mana in the first 2 turns and decrease both from there (right). This optimization does draw from planning the spell base, but our focus is now shifted to the mana base. A simple and helpful mathematical expression for optimizing the mana base arises from comparing the number of producers with the number of consumers. This “mana ratio” is commonly measured as the ratio of mana producers to total cards in the deck. Mana Ratio = Mana Producers / Total Cards in Deck Since lands are the most basic mana producer, the land ratio is also useful. Land Ratio = Lands / Total Cards in Deck The optimal mathematical % may not be possible to prove by calculation. But it is possible to prove the factors that are associated with changes in that %. Understanding the factors that affect the optimal mana ratio will give us the tools we need to skip trial and error and build it right the first time. Factors Influencing Mana Ratio Through our historical research (chapter 8) we found out that 40% (24/60) mana ratios were a common baseline. This slight spell majority works well because most mana producers are reusable and most mana consumers are one time use only, meaning we want to draw more spells than lands. When in doubt, start with 40% and template what others have successfully done. However, we’ll do better by learning how to fish for ourselves. Factors Influencing Mana Ratio ­ Balancing Between Surplus and Shortage ­ Playing with Lower or Higher Cost Cards 3 ­ Playing with Spell Mana Producers ­ Playing with Cheap Card Draw and Selection ­ Playing with Land Synergy Cards ­ Playing with Land Mana Consumers Our optimal mana ratio will vary wildly based on these factors. Each should be considered when determining the mana ratio. Balancing Between Surplus and Shortage First, we must consider the balance between mana surplus (“flood”) and mana shortage (“screw”). In general, the higher the mana ratio the greater occurrence of surplus, the lower the mana ratio the greater occurrence of shortage. Mana Ratio Occurrence of Surplus Occurrence of Shortage More Mana Producers Surplus More Likely Shortage Less Likely Fewer Mana Producers Surplus Less Likely Shortage More Likely The optimization goal is to hit right in between surplus and shortage in order to minimize our general mana problems. It’s like trying to balance a scale­ shift the dial in one direction and problems move in the other direction. With repetitive back and forth adjustment it is possible to balance the scale perfectly in the middle. What’s interesting is that it’s possible to adjust the mana ratio without making things mathematically better or worse­ just changing the proportion of flood to screw and vice versa. So preference plays a major factor in this. Would you rather have too much mana or not enough? Pick your poison. The choice is yours! Some of the best players prefer to have a surplus. You get to at least cast the spells you do draw, and in the meantime you can bluff like you have useful instants. Arguably the two greatest tournament players ever, Kai Budde is known to err towards playing one too many land (1). Kai’s reasoning­ “I think we just like to cast our spells more than everyone else does.” (2) There are other successful players who prefer to play from a shortage. With one too few land you might struggle to get your hand out, but you will draw an extra spell to cast in a long game. You may or may not cast more spells with this method, but you will certainly draw more spells. Playing with Lower or Higher Cost Cards Next, we must consider how the average mana cost of a deck affects the optimal land ratio. 4 Average Mana Cost In Deck Optimal Mana Ratio Lower Average Cost Fewer Mana Producers Higher Average Cost More Mana Producers Generally, the lower the average mana cost of the deck, the fewer lands needed. The higher the average mana cost in a deck, the more lands needed. A low costed aggro deck concentrated on 2 mana might be able to get by with only 16 /60 (27%) lands, while a high costed control deck concentrated on 5 mana may need 28 / 60 (47%) lands to function optimally. If we want to be relatively certain we make our 2nd land drop, it takes only 17 lands to have an 80% chance of drawing 2 from 9 cards. But if we want to be relatively certain we make our 5th land drop, it takes 29 lands to be 80% to draw 5 from 11. (3) Furthermore, any deck with an abundance of mana sinks and flexible cost cards will do better with more lands, being relatively immune to surplus. Flexible X spells and repetitive abilities encourage us to push up our mana ratio because shortage becomes a more important concern. Mana sinks​
prevent ​
surplus ​
of drawing “​
too many​
​
lands”​
by allowing c
​onsumption t​
o always match ​
production​
, raising the optimal ​
land ​
ratio to minimize ​
shortage Playing with Spell Mana Producers Next, we must consider how spell mana sources­ mana creatures, mana rocks, mana boosts, and one­use mana rituals­ affect the land ratio. Spell Mana Producers Optimal Land Ratio More Spell Mana Less Lands Less Spell Mana More Lands 5 Spell mana producers can replace lands to an extent. Most of them require lands to get started, but some of them can do the job of a land from turn 1. So the more spell mana producers, the higher the mana ratio, the lower the necessary spell ratio. Consider the 5 land “Elf Belcher” deck (list in chapter 9). While 5/60 lands (8%) is not a lot, Chancellor of the Tangle and Simian Spirit Guide can function as a first land, pushing our “land” ratio up to 13 / 60 (22%). This is sufficient for an 84% chance of opening with a “land” to start the game from a 7 card hand (3). From here, the Elf Belcher deck is likely to unlock more mana through Aether Vial, Safewright Quest, Llanowar Elves, Elvish Mystic, and so on. In fact, with the help of Heritage Druid, only 4 cards in the whole deck are incapable of producing mana­ Goblin Charbelcher. While this deck functions with only 8% literal lands, the effective land ratio is more like 22%, and the effective mana ratio is as high as 92% (55/ 60)!! How can this deck even use 92% mana? Well, Wargate, Goblin Charbelcher, and Ezuri, Renegade Leader sink all the mana we need in a game. This is a great example of how spell mana producers can drastically lessen the land requirements of a deck. 6 The previously mentioned historical precedent for Elf Belcher’s low land count are one and two land Legacy versions. At 2007 Worlds, Bob “The Great One” Maher played 3% lands, but 46% effective “lands”, and 80% mana. Bob Maher 2007 Worlds, Legacy 1 Bayou 1 Taiga 4 Land Grant 4 Elvish Spirit Guide 4 Simian Spirit Guide 3 Street Wraith 4 Lion's Eye Diamond 4 Chrome Mox 4 Lotus Petal 4 Tinder Wall 4 Dark Ritual 4 Rite of Flame 4 Desperate Ritual 4 Seething Song 4 Burning Wish 4 Goblin Charbelcher 3 Empty the Warrens Similar to non­land mana producers, cheap card draw and selection lowers the optimal land ratio. A Ponder can turn that first Island into a second without having to play many in the deck. Playing with Cheap Card Draw and Selection Cheap Card Draw and Selection Optimal Mana Ratio More Cheap Draw Fewer Mana Producers Less Cheap Draw More Mana Producers Cheap card draw functionally makes the deck smaller. A 60 card deck with 4 Street Wraiths could be considered only 56 cards. A 56 card deck requires fewer lands for the same land ratio than a 60 card deck. Card selection takes it even further. A Ponder digs 4 cards, so a 60 card 7 deck with 4 Ponders could be considered 44 cards. So cheap draw and selection means fewer lands needed. For instance, Living End is a deck that plays 33% (20/60) or fewer lands and expects to hit a land on turn 7 to cast Jungle Weaver. How is this possible? By subtracting all the cyclers the deck is actually like 42 cards. And when counting Simian Spirit Guide and Pale Recluse, the effective mana ratio can be as high as 64%! With only 20 lands, the deck can be seen as majority mana because of abundant cheap draw. The credited grandfather of card draw replacing lands is Alan Comer with his 10 land “Miracle Grow” deck. While he only played 10/60 (17%) physical lands, the effective number was 30% or much higher, depending on how you count it. Alan Comer Miracle Grow (4) 6 Island 4 Tropical Island 4 Land Grant 4 Brainstorm 4 Sleight of Hand 4 Curiosity 8 4 Quirion Dryad 4 Lord of Atlantis 4 Merfolk Looter 3 Gaea's Skyfolk 4 Daze 3 Foil 4 Force of Will 4 Gush 4 Winter Orb Playing with Land Synergy Cards Recall that synergy is the multiplicative critical mass combo effect. This is also possible with lands as there are land synergy cards­ cards that get better with more and more lands. Land Synergy Optimal Land Ratio More Land Synergy More Lands Less Land Synergy Less Lands Certain cards put mass lands into play, do mass damage from lands, or draw mass cards from lands. The more of these we play, the more lands we will want in our deck. 9 Seismic Assault is amongst the most famous, and has been used to power internationally successful 45 land tournament decks. Joel Calafell Cascade Swans, GP Barcelona 2009 1st (5) 2 Battlefield Forge 2 Cascade Bluffs 4 Fire­Lit Thicket 4 Graven Cairns 1 Mountain 4 Reflecting Pool 4 Rugged Prairie 4 Vivid Crag 4 Vivid Grove 1 Vivid Marsh 1 Vivid Meadow 2 Ghitu Encampment 4 Spinerock Knoll 4 Treetop Village 4 Seismic Assault 4 Bloodbraid Elf 2 Captured Sunlight 4 Swans of Bryn Argoll 2 Ad Nauseam 2 Bituminous Blast 1 Primal Command Playing with Lands that Consume Mana Finally, we consider that lands can be mana consumers. Certain lands are more like spells than lands. Lands that Consume Mana Optimal Land Ratio 10 More Land Mana Consumers More Lands Less Land Mana Consumers Less Lands Lands have a rule that you can only play 1 a turn, but they don’t have a rule that they can’t do things that spells can do. Lands can make creatures, buff creatures, destroy creatures, destroy lands, gain life, search cards, and more. These lands consume excess mana and allow us to play more lands without fear of surplus. When combining land synergy with land mana consumers, it’s possible to make a competitive deck with even more lands. How about 48/60 for 80%? 48 Land Seismic Assault 4 Fire­Lit Thicket 4 Cascade Bluffs 2 Wooded Foothills 2 Scalding Tarn 2 Stomping Ground 2 Steam Vents 1 Breeding Pool 1 Mountain 11 2 Tectonic Edge 4 Faerie Conclave 4 Halimar Depths 4 Khalni Garden 4 Treetop Village 4 Ghitu Encampment 4 Spinerock Knoll 4 Raging Ravine 4 LIfe from the Loam 4 Treasure Hunt 4 Seismic Assault While 40% may be the historical baseline for optimal mana ratio, that number can vary wildly hinging on a variety of factors. Some decks prefer 3% lands while others prefer 80%. Some decks can run 8% lands but 92% mana. Now that you understand the factors that influence changes in optimal mana ratio, you can apply the knowledge towards your own decks. While you may still find back and forth adjustment useful, you now have a much better chance of hitting the optimal number right from the start. 12 The Mana System The ability to manage mana in Magic translates to the ability to manage any production / consumption system. Patrick Chapin compares mana to money­ we want to make a good amount but we also want to have useful things to spend it on (6). So you will find this skill useful in your life. But this is also helpful when looking at broader economic systems. The ability to see production inefficiencies resulting in surplus or shortage opens up exploitation for capitalistic gain and improvement for altruistic vision. Mana management for systems optimization is a helpful skill for the big picture. Learning from Deck Crafting ​
Exercise #13 Managing the Mana Ratio What is your chosen deck? What are your mana production abilities? What are your mana consumption wants? How do your mana production abilities compare to your mana consumption wants? How can you match your production abilities with your consumption wants? What can you learn from templating the mana ratio of historical decks? Is 40% a useful starting point? What situations would encourage you to play less than 40% lands? What specific cards decrease your optimal ratio? What situations would encourage you to play more than 40% lands? What specific cards increase your optimal ratio? In the industry you work in, what are the production units? What are the consumption units? Do consumption and production match? If not, what is something you could do to help optimize the system? Notes 1)
Here is an example of Kai Budde playing an extra land over his opponent. Aaron Forsythe. “Quarterfinals: Kai Budde vs. William Jensen.” ​
MagicTheGathering.com, Tournaments: PT Chicago.​
2000. http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=sideboard/ptchi03/qf3 2)
Tom LaPille, “Lands Are Awesome.” ​
Arcane Teachings, Starcitygames. http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/print.php?Article=15432 3)
An easy way to calculate the odds of drawing a card is to calculate the odds of not drawing that card. If we want to find out the odds of drawing a card from X cards, we should 13 multiply the odds of missing that card X times (without replacement). Subtract from 1 and we get the odds of drawing that card. For example, the odds of drawing at least one land from 7 cards with 13 / 60 lands in the deck = 1 ­ ((47/60)(46/59)(45/58)(44/57)(43/56)(42/55)(41/54) = 84% This is called a “hypergeometric calculation." Using a hypergeometric simulator is useful when finding the odds with different amounts of “hits” in the deck, and how many hits from how many draws. I like this one­ ​
http://stattrek.com/online­calculator/hypergeometric.aspx 4)
Alex Shvartsman. “The Evolution of Miracle Grow." ​
MagicTheGathering.com: Tournaments. ​
1/24/2012. http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=sideboard/strategy/sb20020124b 5)
Event Coverage Staff. “Calafell Cascades to Victory.” ​
DailyMTG: Event Coverage. 4/23/2009. http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gpbar09/we
lcome#1 6)
“No amount of money actually buys happiness. It’s the ​
experiences…
​ The same is true with Magic cards. Mana can be useful for giving you opportunities to win at Magic… These things may all lead to situations where you are “winning” but it’s not actually the mana making you win, it’s the gameplay and synergies between your cards. An island adds what it does to your winning because of the opportunities it provides…” Patrick Chapin. “Next Level Deckbuilding.” ​
StarcityGames.com.​
​
Next Level Unlimited. 2014. Pages 57­58.. 14