coronella austriaca laurenti, 1768 in ukraine

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Herpetological Facts Journal. 2014, 1. ISSN 2256-0327. Supplement 1: Proceedings of the 2 international
Scientific Conference – Workshop “Research and conservation of European herpetofauna and its environment:
Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
DISTRIBUTIONS OF CORONELLA AUSTRIACA LAURENTI, 1768 IN UKRAINE: MODELING
AND PREDICTION
Oksana Nekrasova
I.I.Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology NAS Ukraine, 01601, Kyiv-30, 15, Bogdana
Khmelnitskogo Str., Ukraine.
[email protected]
ABSTRACT
We created and used database (about 190 points) of Coronella austriaca to predict
species distributions using the BIOCLIM models - DIVA GIS (ENM). Climatic data
consisted of 19 bioclimatic variables. According to the modeling, the best habitat of
smooth snake is forest-steppe Central part of Ukraine. The most important habitat
parameters are associated with precipitation.
Key words: GIS, modeling, ecological niche, home ranges, Coronella austriaca.
INTRODUCTION
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in ecology and zoology,
particularly in herpetology (Sillero, Tarroso, 2010). Predictive habitat distribution
modeling is an important tool for conservation of biodiversity. For instance, it is used to
calculate potential distribution of species (Bombi et al., 2009), evaluate effects of climatic
warming on species distribution (Araújo et al., 2006), and the suitability of protected
areas (García, 2006; Doko et al., 2011). Ecological niche modeling (hereafter referred to as
ENM) uses environmental variables such as climatic, topographical and habitat data
(Tytar, 2011). We used GIS modeling to study the distributions of alien species - Harmonia
axyridis and other species (Nekrasova, Tytar, 2014). It is most helpful in studying rare
species like Coronella austriaca Laurenti, 1768 (Red Data Book of Ukraine (2009),
category of conservation status Vulnerable (II)).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
To study smooth snakes we created a database (2004-2014) based on the inventory
(Cadastre of Ukraine; Department for Monitoring and Conservation of Animals
Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology NAS) that included information where and in which
biotope, when, by whom was found the animal, its total abundance. We established a
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Herpetological Facts Journal. 2014, 1. ISSN 2256-0327. Supplement 1: Proceedings of the 2 international
Scientific Conference – Workshop “Research and conservation of European herpetofauna and its environment:
Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
form in Excel for data collection and when working in the field we utilized programs
OziExplorer v.3.95.2, Google Earth v.7.1.2.2041 to store locality and information.
We used the data published by others (Dotsenko & Radchenko, 2005; Sobolenko &
Tarashchuk, 2008; Red Book of Ukraine, 2009 et al.) and our findings (materials). In 2008
we also participated in gathering information for the Red Book “Registration of animals
under Red Data Book of Ukraine” (2008), where the following researchers collaborated
on articles about Coronella austriaca: Kotenko T., Kotserzhynska I., Kukushkin O.,
Kuryachii K., Ruzhilenko N., Sobolenko L., Zinenko A., Nekrasova O.
We used our database finds (about 190 points, Figure 1) of Coronella austriaca to predict
species distributions using the BIOCLIM models - DIVA GIS (http://www.diva-gis.org).
Climatic data consisted of 19 bioclimatic variables. The climate information used here was
taken from Worldclim (Hijmans et al., 2005) with spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes.
Variables were analyzed using Statistica v.8. software.
Figure 1. Coronella austriaca: distribution in Ukraine.
RESULTS
Ecological niche modeling (ENM), also known as bioclimatic modeling or climate envelope
modeling, has been applied increasingly to this task. This approach uses georeferenced
primary occurrence data for species, in combination with digital maps representing
environmental parameters, to build models of the ecological requirements of species—
the set of conditions suitable and necessary for long-term survival of the species. Such
conditions are then located on landscapes and maps created to indicate the distributional
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Herpetological Facts Journal. 2014, 1. ISSN 2256-0327. Supplement 1: Proceedings of the 2 international
Scientific Conference – Workshop “Research and conservation of European herpetofauna and its environment:
Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
potential of the species (Pearson & Dawson 2003; Thuiller, 2003; Martínez-Meyer et al.,
2004).
BIOCLIM can be used for three tasks (a) describing the environment in which the species
has been recorded, (b) identifying other locations where the species may currently reside
and (c) identifying where the species may occur under alternate climate scenarios
(Beaumont, Hughes, Poulsen, 2005).
The result of simulation is a raster file with the values that characterize the suitability of
the site for species. Six types of areas are mapped in the BIOCLIM output (Figure 2-3).
Areas outside the 0-100 percentile climatic envelope of the species for one or more
“bioclimate” variables are considered unsuitable. The better habitat of smooth snake is
forest-steppe Central part of Ukraine (“very high” climatic stability is 10-20 percentile in
the map). And even higher “excellent” climatic stability of 20-28 percentiles is also
registered on other territories of Kiev Province, North of Cherkasy Province, the SouthEast of Vinnytsia Province, North of Odesa, Kharkiv, North of Zaporizhia Province, along
the middle part of the Dnieper. This species inhabits ecotone biotopes in brushwood or
forest. Numbers of smooth snake amounted maximum to 1-2 specimens per km of the
route (for example, at North of Cherkasy Province).
Figure 2. Coronella austriaca: the model of species distribution in Ukraine under
contemporary climatic conditions (legend Figure 3).
Bioclimatic variables are derived from the monthly temperature and rainfall values in
order to generate more biologically meaningful variables. These are often used in
ecological niche modeling (e.g., BIOCLIM, http://www.worldclim.org/bioclim.htm). The
bioclimatic variables represent annual trends (e.g., mean annual temperature, annual
precipitation), seasonality (e.g., annual range in temperature and precipitation) and
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Herpetological Facts Journal. 2014, 1. ISSN 2256-0327. Supplement 1: Proceedings of the 2 international
Scientific Conference – Workshop “Research and conservation of European herpetofauna and its environment:
Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
extreme or limiting environmental factors (e.g., temperature of the coldest and warmest
month and precipitation of the wet and dry periods). We used factor analysis for the
classification of 19 bioclimatic variables. The most important variables (with maximal
values of factor loadings) were associated with precipitation. This is due to the fact that
this species prefers ecotones near (or in) overgrown bushes or forested biotopes.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007), the
intense transformations of the environment to the atmosphere by humans, causing an
increase of the Earth’s temperature, are recognized as global warming (Root et al., 2003).
It is expected that the impact of climate change on ecosystems will alter abundance and
distribution of species (Parmesan, 2006; Trejo et al., 2011). The home ranges of animals
are changing in connection with climate change (warming). Thus we modeled the possible
warming of 1◦ C. In the changing conditions most favorable habitats for
Coronella austriaca will be located in the Northern and Western parts of Ukraine (Figure
3). Perhaps, populations of the smooth snake will be disappearance in the South of
Ukraine.
Figure 3. Coronella austriaca: the model of species distribution in Ukraine with climate
change (1◦ C warming scenario)
Among factors that lead to the decline of the snake there are the destruction of habitats
and direct killings. After we found a dead snake, we have created leaflets on the
“protection of Coronella austriaca” and spread them to inform the public.
CONCLUSION
The result of our modeling identified new promising habitats for Coronella austriaca. This
helps to predict key areas to target habitat conservation to connect existing populations
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Herpetological Facts Journal. 2014, 1. ISSN 2256-0327. Supplement 1: Proceedings of the 2 international
Scientific Conference – Workshop “Research and conservation of European herpetofauna and its environment:
Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
of smooth snakes. Decreases of the areas of the snakes in Ukraine are caused by climatic
and anthropogenic change. Possibly the smooth snake will disappear in the South of
Ukraine if warming continues. We suggest that smooth snake can be used as an indicator
of undisturbed habitats because of its ecological preferences.
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Bombina bombina, Emys orbicularis, and Coronella austriaca”
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