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i9,!.o"n""t
ElectionMMdI
2000
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Se a Cateor
The Butterfly Ballot Episode
Law and Data:
Henry E. Brady,
Michael C. Herron,
Walter R. Mebane Jr.,
Jasjeet Singh Sekhon,
Kenneth W. Shott,
Jonathan Wand,
Califrnia, Berkeley
Haward Universit
Cornell Universit
University
of
Haward University
Nortwesrn Universit
Cornell University
On television s Law and Order , the police catch criminals and hand them over to the
lawyero to get convictions. Part of the program s dramatic tension comes from the
police operating under the scrutiny of a rigid and unforgiving legal system. The
ABOUT THE
AUTHOR
suspense Increases as the lawyers try to do their job even though there is often a gap
Henry E. Brady Is a
between justice and what the law requires.
, but
In Law and Data, data analysts track down the fact and prove their theories
often have trouble explaining them simply and clearly. Lawyero find It hard to obtain
or even define, justice. And the law sometimes goes in odd directions, missing the
bigges fact and emphasIzing seemingly trivial ones. Justice is not always done.
ur eplso e 0 Law an Data Invo ves po I ca sc en I
s rom orne , arvar
professor of political
science and public policy
r:i
where he is also director
of the Survey Research
Center and UC DATA. He
Northwestern , and the Univeroity of California , Berkeley, who came together through is coauthor of Voice and
Equality: Civic
a series of accidents to become expert witneses for the butterfly ballot cases in Palm Voluntarism
in American
Beach, florida. A few of us had worked together as collaboratoro on scolarly articles
Politics. HiS research
but our greatest common experience had been attending the annual summer interests Include
meetings of the Political Methodology Soety of the American Political Sdence American, Canadian, and
Association , where we pilgrimaged each year to hone our analytical skils. As membero Estonian politics, political
of that group, our Grail Quest has been uncovering the truth through good data participation and
analysis no matter where it leads us. Serving as expert witnesses in court cases was behavior, political
far from our minds , because the logic of adversrial justce
seemed uncongenial to the methodology, and social
logic of tough-minded data analysis. None of us had been involved as expert welfare policy.
witnesses in court cases before November 2000 , and we never envisioned ourselves
becoming involved with the legal $Ystem. Uke Sergeant Joe Friday, and unlike
Assistant Distrct Attorney Jack McCoy,
we just wanted the unadorned fact ,
and
some of us doubted that the legal system was the best forum for determining the
whole truth and nothing but the truth.
lofl2
Michael C. Heron , a
postdoctoral research
fellow at the Center for
Basic Research in the
Social Sdences at
..
...
,...
..
Our IndMdual dedons to become involved in the buterfy ballot case alTer tre 1000
ell;ctons flowed from our intellecual curiosity, the importance of the Iswe and tra :e':
Nort!'w
m Univer$ty
availabilty of dat on the Internet t.hal: make quid( data analysi$ possible, We
His curnmt research
then prpelled along by the clari of the facts and the realization tht we M:1'
Irrer
int:b.u:le politiQI
wee
well
ca.
can
aaurate
qualifed to provide the public and the court wlt.h clear and scentifically
miithodo!pgy, eCOloglca!
ani'lysis. Akngt.he way, and afer we had completed our initial analyses, phone and Infeten , legislative
amal! messges frm
Throughout the
a lawyr In Aorlda got; us lliolved
proc, our admiraon
do their be$t, but our doubt
gre
for
In the Aorld(l
the effort of lawyers and judges to
have Increased over whether the legal
efecvely digest Information and make the bes use of it. We saw, up dose,
proc
larger pictre
and led
The Palm Beach
Ballot
into law-suit sized PI
es that obliterte
the
to lealistic: solutons that often semed to miss the pont.
Count Buterfy
preerence mea$tres.
ver
it
significant problem the falJure of our votng systm to. convert p ple $ vote
Intentions into counted votes--ch
politics, . and tte
propertes of legislator
Watter R. Mebane Jr.
8n assoiate prof ssr or
governmental ComeH
University. He is it past
editor of Politicl
Analysis. His research
il1 rest$ Include
Througtl news stories . and emal!, each of usleamed about th badly designed butrfly American
politics,
ballot the
aftr the elecion on Wednesay, Novmbe 8. We learned that$O
day
l1iectioflS, campalgrt
vOI: in Palm BeCh FlOrict.. many of them Jews or African Americans, belfNed that financ , reprentaiQn,
they had mistakenlY voted for Pat Bucnan instead of AI Gor becuse they misrad stU$cal
smnt of
or m!!lnterproted the Instctons on the bal10t which had candidate names on
noncoopertive
pagesandpunch.holes down the middle. One look at the banai: sugesec that equilbrium theorlas,
nonlinear models, and
maoong It corrtly would
easy for BuSh voters, who only had to match
bot
thftrst
political mettodoJoy.
second name on th lef-hand Side of the ballot with the third punch-hole In the center
::ng
of the ballot, could easily mlsatk their baOot. If Gore voters mistkenly punch the
s an a an pI"
second hole, tney cast their vote for Pa &Janan whQs name was lI$td on
light hand SIde of the ballot. somewhat higher on the page than AI Gore' s nMle but of governent and an
somewhat lower than G rge Buh s name. ! In addition, some Goro ilotersdalmed a$$date of the center
for SasJC Raseardlo the
that they had miskenly punched tw names for preident becuse the ballot
Sfla! Sciences at
vote for group" and there were punch-hOles next to both Gore and Ueberman
Harvard University. His
on the I:Uot wit th firs punch- hote; Bu Gore voters, who had to match the
th
names.
The elecion results rn palm Bem
said
researd'.
COunt suggeste that a sl1.able number of people
may have made thes mistkes, Pat SUmanan reIved
e5r
almost 20% of his
tol
stwide support in Paim Beach, whim hous only about 7% of the voters in
interes Indude
political methodology,
positive politcal
economy, and American
poliics. He Is also II
Florlda. 2 A simplecaiculatJorJ reeals tht over 2 000 Gore supporters may have
partner at Lamar(k, 1m::,
mistakenly voted for Buchanan,
the number of multiply punched pallots,
or "overvotes, " was over 19, 000. That seemed very high compare to othe counties, Kenet W.
an assistnt proessor of
leading to the posSibilty that thOI.Sinds more Gore vote might h e been lost
politcal scence at
beuse of the ballot form. With the presidetial electon result in florida depending
upon a difference 'Of less than 1, 000 votes, the butrfy ballot might have proved the Nortweter University.
His researd' intere
difference.
Furterm,
Sh
implicate the buttrfly ballot, there Is nothing
definitive about It. Perhaps cOl.mtles routh'iely have large " outiers In vots for
third",part candidates or In spllee baUot, Perhaps there is history 'Of unuSually
stng Buchanan suppo In Palm Beam County, or pehaps thero was some reasn
that he had StonQ support In 2000, furtermore, perhaps Buh supportrs were just
as likely 1; make mISkes as Gore supprs, so that the net: eff on the
preSIdentil race was zero. These are the kInds of quesions tht sprang Into our
mind when we first heard about the butrfy banat, and each of us
to addres:
AlthQugh this circumstarral evIdence
them in our own ways,
ch
How We Got Involved and What We found
At Harvard Universit in Cambridge on Wednesay, Novamber a , Jasjee Sekhon
learned about the buttrfy ballot and the large vot.e for Buchanan from Congreman
Robert Wexler (D-fL) 'On CNN. Sekhon talked about it tht day with Waltr Mebne
and Jonathan Wand of Cornell. M bane was Sekhon s Ph. D. adviser and Wand Was a
graduate student at Cornell who was workng with Sekhon on an Internet st-
company. Although they thought it plausible that: the ballot might have caused Gore
supporters to vote for Buchanan, they did not believe that the evIdence presnte tQ
that time made the ca$e.
2ofl:Z
include game theoretic
models of American
potitcal insttutions,
raal gerrmandering,
execive leadersip,
Infrmation and
eleons, ecologicl
infereru:i! sttistca
methoolgy, and
computsimulatons of
organizational deision
makJng.
Jonathan W..nd I$. a
Ph. D. candidfte at
Cornell Univerity. He is
wriing a dlS$rtatlQf on
the dynamics of
campaign contrbutions
and election forestng.
His resard intert;t$
indl.de American and
canadian elecral
The b;;$k statstical evf;ence clrclatiflg 01' Wednesay via emalland that was
available cn the web by Thursay
Novernber 9 had been compiled very qUicky by
at Carnegie Mellon Untversll;.
r analysi was
In the news media, They had plotted the vote for Buchanan by
fer Aotlda' G 67 counties and had fittd a simple linear regreion line b: an
Gre Adams and COTts F'smow
als widely reported
total '\ot
countes but Palm Beach. s
ha\lior and political
methodology, With a
focus on dynamic,
diSGete-coice models.
The plOt $howed that Palm Beach County appeare t'O be an exreme 'Outlier with
many more vot for Buch;:man thn might be expectd given the sfze and partsanship of the county, but the
sttistcal method, simple ordinary least SQuares applied to votes instead of vot shares, was not well suit to
detecng an outlier, and their analysis only u;Sd Florida data. Perhaps every $te In the countr hi;cO$Uch an
outlier, and perhaps large counties such as Palm Beach tendtQ have substantia) variabilty in their vote fo third
parte;. After i)II, the total vote percntage fOr Buchanan in Palm Beach was less than one percent (0. 78%).
Mebane, Sekoo, Clnd Wand decided that none of the existing analY$e couid esblish that Palm Beac was an
anomaly because of the buterfy baHot.
county might just be one of many In the United States that had
somewhat deviant , bQ $ti$cally uru:l
f'dab # values for the Buchanan vot. They dedded that performing
a oonvindng analyss. would reuire compill09 more dat and using
sttistcal methOds. Wand went to the
T'
bett
Internet and bean to buld a data set ofthQusands of eledion reportng urnts I3 !ate. Wednesday night,
Sekhon and Wand had a! dy found some additonal outliers, bul none of
In counties as large as Palm
Beach. Mebane worked with them by suggesting Improvcment b: the sttistcal analyis.
th
In O1lcao, at Nortwesrn
electon In which he
Univers,
Ken
ShOt sentanemail to coleagues trnd frends the day .after the
desbed soe ver smpledata analyses regding the BuananVtte In Palm Beach
COunl;and concludd: "The basic argume made by Democrtsls that thsands of voters who Intended to
vote for Gore wer confu$e by th ballo!: and aCcdentally wound up voting for Buchanan, and this may have
been pivotl In deterining th decon outcome. Bom hne: I think. the
may be righ en this one.
Deat
But I'm not sure."
Shott als phone his colleague Michael Herro,
who was
vlsltln\! Harvard for the
year to discss the Isse.
Herron agre.ed WI Shot that II: seemed surprising to find sO many Buchanan vote in a count with large
Jewish and African-Amrican populations, but he wondered whether ther wa some plausible explanation
than the. ballot form. Perhaps there was some. hidden soun: of Buhanan $Upport In Palm Bech. That fNening,
otr
Shotts' fater reponded to
Buchanan. Pemaps
comments, Shotts
hisemClJl by saying tht his
analysis did not:
ide the source of the exra votes for
were eush votrs who mi$tkenly votd fer Buchnan. While thinking al:)()I.l1: hi$father
realize that prednct-Jeel data might be ",$e tp figure ou where the vot came from, and
!:e.y
he lef it messge on Michael Herron s ofce answering machine
they should work on this.
ate Wednesday evening saying that maybe
At the University of California, BerkeJey, Brady heard about the butterfy ballot on Wedne5ay through an emall,
and he disc$$d the Isse wit his graduate students. The reserchers who had posted their findings on the
web up until that time had onlyu$e coUnl;-lfNe. data to esblish that the Buchanan vot semed anomalous,
but: Brdy and his studen
that pl'nct..level data were neeed I:Q deterine whether !:e exta votes for
Buchanan came frm Buh or GQre suppoers, One of Brdy s gradualestdent, Laurel Elms , feund Palm
Beach County precnct-level data on th Interet and suggeed that it looke like Buchanan votes were
concetrated in liberal precinct. COnductng a convincing analYsis, however, would require formulatil1gand
sttig:dly esimating a model c()ntalnl
a behavl(Jal piJrametel"..
of Gore votes who mistakenly
voted for Buchanan. Moreover, the mode) wold be even more convincing if It also permitd estimation of the
proportion of Bush supporters whO' had miskenly voted for Buchanan.
agre
fron
night and start to think about the problem. 00 Thursay morning, he got up at 5 am to
him. By shorty aftr noon , he had completed a paper that devloped a
sttistcal ("mixture") model to tes
Bush or Gore
\toters
were responsble fer the unusually high
Buchanan vote. He conduded that "Using data from the 67 Flolia
es along with data from prednds In
Palm Beach CPunty, I find that there Is a
likelihood that over 200 of the Buchanan voes in Palm Bech
Col.mty were cat by Gore supportrs who mistkenly punched Buchnan s name. " Moreover he found no
Brady went home tIat
work on some Ideas thaI: had occurr to
whet
stng
me mistke. In spare moments throughout the rest of the day,
ch?" via emall and posted It to his web site
(http://ucdata. bereley. edu). Friday morning, he left Berkeleyfof a conference at the . University of California,
evidence that Bush supporters had made the
Brady sent out "What Happeed in Palm
Santa Barbara.
At the sametlme, OI Thursay, November 9, Wand was viSiting Sehon on th Harvard campu, and they ran
into Michael Herron as they wen! going to lunch. Herron mentoned that he and Shott were workng on the
Palm Beach County butterfy ballot. They deided that the five of them (Wand, Sekon, Mebane, Herron, and
Shott) should work.
3 of 12
together. They woldfocu$ on three questons:
!!,
"Was, Buchanan s vote In Palm !$ch Count;
vot
allyanoutl
Buchanan
from Gore $Upprters?
" Were the overvotes caSt by Gore supporters?'
" Were the exta
By3 am on Friday, November 10, SekhQI' had created a web page for the preliminary report " Voting
Irregularities in Palm Bech County " (!f! gLQ!l, f:iAt,!J,$lviin;j. €:.j;t Yi_$,.?tnt!), Throughout Friday, Herroo, Sehon
phone calls to Shot In Chicago. Mebne started
off workng In Ithaca , but Jam In the afternoon he lef to drive to Cambr1dge, In Ming to attend a confernce at
MIT Qn Saturday.
had emslled his paper to ShOt on Friday, bol: neierSMtt nor any of hiscolJeagues
had a maot! to
d ituntl Saturday. Learning of Brady s paper, however, Increased the five s a.1 ady stng
commltmlint to gel: their own paper done as soon as possble , All five worked into the
early
hOtr$ of Saturday
morning, and th 1! of thm continued untUaUlhe piecE$of the paper had be 11 compiled.. At 11:40 am on
and Wand worked tooeter In Cambrid.ge and made frequent
6ry
Saturday morning, the paper was linked to the web sit and announcements of it were emaUec!. In the pQper
Wand , Shotts, Seld;on, Mebane, and Herfon7 concluded that:
We find that Buchanan s Palm Bech County vote total is not merely large but that ins.tatistlca terms it
extraordinary. Furtermore, we examined voting
within palm Beach County and find stong statistical
eviden that Buchanan votersa conc;entra d in the most liberal preinct of Palm Seach County. We also
find that fnva!!d, dotble'punched ballots-- pres.mablv double pun(;hecHor Gore and Buchanan--tend to come
from relatively liber(il Prect. Thse two findin9S
are,
eVidence for the dalm that the ballot format in Palm
Bech County led some Gore supporters mistakenly to vote for Buchanan and , In some cases, t'O vote for
patts
multiple preSjdentalcandl
te.
Three
portng units were identified in a fiure In the paper (se f..!w.e 1J as having more irrular votecouJ1ts
than Palm BaachConty. Although we did l1otl(now It at the time, one of them (Mississippi , Aransa) was
Irregula only beuse ItS re1Uff were Inc:rrcty
port en the CN!\ web Site. A second was a smail New
Hampsire township, Richmond , where oller 10% of the presidential vote were for 6uchamm (55 of the 533
votes). The Republican voters In Richmond are wryconsrvatNe judging by their votes In the 2000 p
dentJai
primary, but the total still appears high. A third anomaly was Jaser COUI1t;, South Carolina, where one precinct,
Tillmon ccounted for 239 of Buchanan' s 245 votes 10 the county f and in this precinct, there was only one: vote
for Gore, one for Bush, 111 for Nader (the next highe precinct had three votes for Nader), and fie vote for
the remaining candidares. 9 local offcials InltlaHV' argued that there was no probU!m becuse ' Yoter rror led to
the odd results' ("Vctero say" 2000), but affdavits collected ITom registere voters in TIllman revealed that
many more reglst d voter acualJy voted forBuhand Gore. On December 13th , a new electon wa$ordered
for COunty office In
finding true outiers.
Jasper,
Conty. These results cofirm that the method use In the November 11 paper was
By Saturday cst noon, then, we had all chimed in wit our analys, and we had come to a cornmon oondusloo.
For all of us, , th data told a very dear story. Palm Bech County was an exaon:Hnary outlier even when
compQred to the entire nation. Gor supportro and not Bus!; $Upporters had mistakenly voted for Buchanan ih
Palm Beam County. Spoiled ballot c.afl disproportionately from liberal precinct. Almost aU of the other
analy$e postd to the web came to the same condLi!ons
(e.g. Adams and Fastow 2000), and the dissters
ba$e their complaints on work that had not taken the preutions that we had (e. , Shimer 20(0).
Unlike most sodal $dent! data, these told a ver dear and consISt tale. Eve analysiS Indicated that
someting very odd had happened in Palm BeaCh. All of us felt 900 about our work, and we we please to
get our analysis out on the web. Perhaps now we could get some res and go. cn 1:0 other business.
Going to Florida
On Saturday morni09, Gre Adamso.f carnegie Mellon UnIVersity receved an emall from fOrt Lauderdale
attorney David Krathen, who had filed a lawsuit In the Fifteeth Judk.ial Orcuit 00 Novmber 9 ccntestng the
legality of the butterfy balot on bealf of two Palm Bead! County voters, Beverly R.ogero and Ray Kaplan.
Krathen asked Adams If he were jnten: d in actng as an expert Witnes 00 the case Cit:ng other
eommltnrnts, Adams demurrd and referrd Krathel1 to Brdy i!nd the C'rneU/Harvard/Norhwesem team. In
a routine check of his emailon$aturday morrllng while emnding theSantiS Barbra conference, Brady
mesge Krthen had senl:a few hours before' askng Brad to cotact him immeiately.
round a
Brady called Krathen and asked him aboul: the case. Krathen said that aft the legal work was being done pro
bQhoand that thre
no money to pay afrfaresor expense, much less any fees, for
Kritthen needed help and would welcome our Involvement. Brady asked wheter
voters or the Democrati Part.
pert wiesse. Bul:
representing the
Krathen was
AS the coauthor of a book on political partclpQtion entitled Voice and equality
(Verba, Schl02man, and Brady 1995), BrooyKnew some of the ways that democratic insituticns fail to make
sure that people s voices are heard. PilmBeach County's voting problems appeared to be a case where voters'
4 of 12
voices werE! silenced by ine.'(cusabJe and preentable errors in baUot design and adlYlni$trotiOf1. Although Brady
had fl() iHuslons aoout which part' s voters were supprting the: Palm Beach lawsuits, hetelt moch more
comfortble represnting votersthafl the Democ;t Part. After a momert'$thought he: said he would
go.
Perhaps the case would dIrec attention to America s ;anl:quated votng and vote-counting metods. Aftr
odil'g Sunday working With his re arth aSSistant, Laure. Elms, doing additional analyses and obtaining data
from more counties
a Brady
flew to fort Lauderale.
noon on Saturday, Herron, Me.bane ,
Shortly 8ft
and
Sekhon, Shotts,
to call Krathen. By Sunday aftemoon ail five had dedded to go..
Wand also received emaHs asking them
w to Felt Lauderdale Sunday
All but Mebane
evening. Mebane ctrove back to Ithaca Sunday night and flew down Monday momlng. Each of us was paying his
own way.
Our Intellectal CUriOSity
the avaUabUltyQf the dat Qvertha Internet , the clanty of our
votes faiiiy represented, and our profesonal cpmmltment: to high qualit data analys
an extraordinary $ltuatiOn. We would get very little slep for the nex five days.
Palm
results, the desire to seE!
had propelled us all Into
Be and Fort Lauderdale: Monday, Noyember 13
In AOda, we face the diffcult task of translating our data analyses Into terms that made sene to joumalist$
and to thelegat system. Our paamountconcem was to enSUre the integrity of our analyses. Our profesional
reputat10ns as
and competent r
rcers mattered much more to U$ than anything el . At the
same time, 8steacl, we reconized the need to exlain our reslts hi ways that were compreensible to
those who lacked our bad(ground and training. We werE not $1..lIprJ d by V :H:ant looks when we pu1led out a
trorthy
sctter-plot or mentoned Sttlca
SlgnlfCancE and WE! were
SImple terms. What we Qid notf\Uyexct
more thM wHllng
to try to explain our resufts in
or immediately know how to deal with were the freJetic pate of
activty and theextrOrdfnary emotions on diSpiayi" Palm Beach.
Afer meeting with Krathenon MOnday moming, November 13, at his fort Utllderdale offces on fashionable Las
Otas Bol.levard all of 1,St except Mebane who wold not arrive untl the aftrnoon! go! Into several cal' and
went north I; a television $tudio at a Christan academy
where we prepared to be. Interviewed on CN N's Burden
of Prof. Whlfe making us presl:able for teeviSion OUr make
artl$t wa$ dearly 1.pset about what she
perDelved to be unwarranted challenges to Governor Bush's victor in FlO'rJda. Afer waiting in the studiO for 1 S
minuts/ we were bumpe bya breaking news story that a federl judge in Miami would not be Ising a
preliminary tnjunctionto enjoin the local camtassing ooardsfrom continuing a manual count.
Later that aftrnoon, we: went to the Palm Beach County Courthouse, which was about 40 miles north of Fort
Lauderdale. Mer gel:ing off the freeway, we encountered blocked roads, people holding protest signs, aJjd police
everyhere near thecourthou5e. At ieasthalt a dozn helicopters were drding around. We latr we learned that
the derrnstratoJ' wer going . 1:0 a march led by
Jacksoo and that he had been ushered away by pollCe: as
Bush supporters came at his enturage chanting " Jes, go hornt" (Markey 2000).
Jes
Upon entrlnQ the courthouse one of our team members explained QUI' purpose to an Afrjcan A.er1can
guard. and asked for directons. The guard courtousl copJleci and volunteere(j the pplnlon tht the
curlt1
buttrfy
ballot had been inte:ntlom'lIl'ldesgned to harm blacks in particular. All the evidence! Jrtcludlng the fact that the
ballot was approved bya Deocratic commi$Soner of elecions, sugges tht this is not true !.t the securi
guard' s comments and the demonsttion outside suggested the depth of feeling around the lSue.
courtm too late to get in; we found our way bloced by a crsh of reporters, 5eurlty
ourt teleVision and saw the
asigned judgE! recuse himsef and sett: next day for a preliliry hearing. We use the opnity to talk at
We: arrived at the
pel'l'mel
and
other pepple. Along with the ptess, we watched the hearing on
length with reporter
frm locl and national media and to refine the presentation of our analysis.
pre
After the hearinQt we walked out into a se of cameras and a
conference. One of the atorneys assdated
with the ca
although not Krthen or Gary Farmer, with whom we worked dosely during the next few days,
strtd the
conference with a firy partsan
on the Republicans. We felt uncoforblt! With this and
said that we would prefer to empna$l the voting Issoes that were central t.o the case.
then and Farmer
pre
at
agreed.
We chose Walter Mebane as our-spokesrson, and he coped as best he could with questions about our role and
the Impact oHlle buttrfy
allo. At this time! we began to realize that the press craved prese numbers and
expressons of certinty that we were only party prepared to provide. We felt confient that at least 2,000 Gore
supporters had mi$tak nly voted for Buchanan, but we did not know what to say aoout the. spoiled ballots
because we had very limited data,
During our first day in Florida, then, we had almost been on CNN,
;) of 12
seen part of
a highly charged demonstration
talked with numerous reporters) been crowded out from () hearing regarding our eae, and participated In a
press conferece wIth 30 reporters and a half oQzen cameras.
Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale: Tuesay, November 14
Tuesy morning we had tpc prepare for a posbte hearing. GeQrge aadey, the PhiladelphIa lawyer-who woold
con dUd; our direct
examination In the C(urtoom, h d jOined us the nigl1t beore, and Keith Altman, an expert on
legal prentaions, joined us In morning. They wOfktXw1 us on our pre$ntaon. We realized we would need
pictures that wid the $!orySimplyand dearly. But the slmples!:fjgures, such as those done by Greg Adams (see
f!!l
jl were not as tenically accptable as the fJ.ures In our papers. And the tachnically superior figures,
such asthe HISIrem of ')ISOpandes from Expected Vote for Buchanan- .J81 Reportng UI1!1; in 46 States
from theW nd et al. papersul'l1d from l.ing concpt suc as "studentlzed redual"
nd having thre
rep.ortng uni that Ware eVat more extreme than Palm Beach county (see fliIJK!..1). AI! of thi$could be
explaIned, of cours, but the Adams pictre was appling because it had direct Impa. Ary child could plot
total vot, and In this pIcture, Palm Beach stood far apart from other Flonde (;Dunties.
Boanan vot
ver
fac
We also
the problem of demru tratjng wlw Bucanan's vote came from GOre supporters (tod O()t &.h
supporters. Brady smathmatlcal argumatt, assatl$fihg as It was to us, would not do. The solution was to
develop a hypoetcale"ample that .eentually foondltwav J!to Brady saffdavit "'
po on Voting and 6allot
Form in Palm Beach Coun" H:;dat
ed!J) . In this example, we start from the empirically true fact that
InF10rdaand In Bmward and Miami-Dade tQu
the fracton of Buchanan vot Increased with thefrad;lon
of Bush v()ters In a preanct, Not$iurpSlrig!y, Bucham.iO Ssupport is .usu lIy greates where there is strong
Republican support Then we show
positive relationship between Bucharu'm' s vore share and Bush's vote
share oe(omes even stonger if Bush voters are mistakenly voting fur Buchanan but becomes weaker If Gor
voters a mistkenly VOting for Buchnan. In fact , If enough Gore voters are mistkenly vong for Buchanan
trt th
then the percnt Buchanan
voters
Inaprednct decrease s wit thefractiOl of Bush voters in a prednctithe
relanshlp beeen Buchanan votas and Bush votes bE!mes negativel Put another way, the fracton of
Buananvotar incrases WIth the fractn of Gore voters. And that is. exactly What we. found in Palm Beah
COunty, but not in nearby Brward or Miamf-Dade.
ppened with the overvot . Beuse there were over 19,000
wanted to foc attention on the bigest number of
to
st appealed
hardes stry to tell.
Finally, we faced the problem of explalnl
of them, the overvote.
affeded votes, 1.2 But It Was the
We knew that the frcton of spoiled balllr inGraased with
Gore support In a precnct, but there are many reasons why baUots can be spiled. While we were In Palm Beach
county we found somE! dat report on the web by Petal' Orszag and Jonathan Orszag (at
W\MW $bQ(L(x)m/e
5Crlbed the overvotes In the onesample of ballots that th Palm
!QrLntJ that
Bech County EJed;nSCaflvaS$ing COmmission had hand counted on November 11. aa
on that sample, the
commission had de(lded to do a complet manual recount of all the Palm Beach County ballots.
peen
Of the 144 multiply punched ballots In the Palm Beach County sample, 132 had double punches and 114 (79%)
haGfadjacent double punches. Among the adja nt double pt1O,ches 80 were for Buthanan and Gore and 21 w
for Gore and McReYfWlds. E! at were fur Bush aod Bohanan, and one was for " blank two" (the box above the
box for Bush) and Bu. /I simpl projecon might sugges that 10% (101/144) of all the o\lervte In Palm
Beach County were
imnded to be votes for Gore, while 8% (12/144) were Intended to be votas for Bush, but It
seemed dUbJOU well/oce all the vOt away from Buchanan, not to allow that some
patterns of double punches were meallngles
rrorst and to extrapolate to ail
9i
prOportion: of the four
key
Palm Bech County from a
coprtSing fournoorandomty selected prec:inc. 13 We fe confdent that Gore had los
\Iotas from double punchln9 cause by the poor ballot design, but found Itdiffcult to. come up wit a definitive
minimum number for those votas. Eventually, in his
affdav
completad ver earl TtH.lrsav moming, November
, Mebane d'ose 3 400 as the minimum net number of votes that Gore certainly lost, although he strongly
leved the
ctual number w be much higher than that (see!ij 9n?
harv
edwwmt'af\e ), It seems
likely, in fact, that Gore IQst sllghtlymonathal' 10 000 net: vote b
use of double-punched, spotted ballots.
ol1e percel't sampt
We faced still another problem on Tuesday morning, which George Badey bean to address. We knew that the
Democratic Party sod the AFL ao had CQiiected a large number of affda\lts from voters In Palm Bech County
who beieved they had misc thir vote. We could make it much better case if we had acces to these
(fdavits. But, strangely,
Demcctic Party offldals were relucant to Jet us have them. Aftr
making some
phone calls, One of which prooked an angry comment from it labor offclal who sad he didn t care what the
DemocratIC part wanted to do, he thught tMaffldavlts should be used, we Finan)' got permission to use them,
and they were faxed to Krthen offte.
As we went running out the door to ge to another court appearance, we were handed pages of affidavits. We
read them as we drove north, and we found confirmation for our theories
what was happening. One
woman wrote:
6 of 12
abo
I had reviewed the sample banel: before gQing to the pOlling place , and had even gone through training to selVe
as a pQlI worker. Even though I was familiar w!t th sample ballpl: (;11(1 had vored. rr!1nytimes before, J found
thebaUol: I reeived on Novenlber 7 ver confusing. It did not correspond to the sample ballot I had received. . .
info
. Beuse I was S
propey, and
far €lS$!stnce lining up the holes on the ballo
punch to vote
for Vice Prdent AI Gor to be the next pre:snt. She did not prvide me w!t the assistance I requestd
fining up the ballot ili th voting mart\If1, ancljusttold me I should " punch the hole " near VIce President Gore
I was having trouble lining up the holes to see which hole 1 shOuld
name in orner to vote ror him. T!1ls was not at aU helpful b: me, since my 'Pn:blem was that: leoulo not tell whieh
was the hDle nearest to Vice President Gore s name. ." ! punched the
eCOnd hole on the ballO't! believing that
to' be the correct hole . to . punch In orde to \lotE! for the Democratic amdidi' for presiden $jnce they were listd
second on the bal!f). I W(iS
not certain that I had vO'ted correctly
Cllly since thE! pol worer
but I was ashamed to ask forheJp again!
hadreused to help when r fit' a$kedfor assrtce.
My husband! who was at
the pOlis voting with me and had startd f1lllng out his ballet short after I did, noticed my confusion android
me that a poll wcrkr had informed him that the proper way to vore for the Demoatic candidates was b: punch
both the second and third holes on the ballo!:ln order to vote fO'r both Vice President Gore and Senator
Ueberman. This seed ver unusual and surprlsJng to me, but .I bellev It since I undersoOd It was what the
po!l. worker had inSWuctd us to do.
This one affdavit, one of thousands, shows how 'Sme voters mistakenly vQted for Buchanan wh. en the meant
to vot for Gore and
howoter voters spoiled their ballot by punching two names because of the mysterious
insuctOn to " VO'refor Group " and the confuson of holes. Although
only
about one percent of the Gore
and!!bout 5% spQ!!ed their ballots by dQuble purnhlng fO'r Gore and
some othr candidate., thes number' are very high for macine failures. Banking machines, cash reisters, or
telephones that: failed In 6% of the total trnsactions wO'uJdcealnly be sant to the junkyard,
supportr$ mistakenly vot
for Eiuc;hanan
Atthe courtouse, we walked through a
sem of
rert and cameras to get to our eoortoom. Once the,
we listened to Chief Judge Walter Colbath enumera the
Judge St:phM Rap!,
four o
jUdges who had recuse themselVes aftr
took himself off thecasa the previous al'moon. luage COlbath explained how he was
only remporarlly presiding, b use he did not believe he was supposed to be 10 the n:tation for the case,
sa he would remain only unt1l his
oould f'm: th l1ex judge In the rotion. A surprI$e Judge Jorge
firs
st
Labarge took over our case as soo as he returned from lunch. He was well-spoken with a good sense of humQr.
BeQreconsiderng our case, he q)nsldered a number of subsntial and proceural queson regarding
forchangi 9 th venue, $trik!fl9 the case altogeter, and conl:nui!nce.
r dealing with thes In oral rulings , he
oondud that th case would reaIn In Palm 8(achCouflty and that the Canvasl1!; Board shouJd continue
counl:ingal1d supplement as necsary the result that were to be submittd to the secrtary of state at 5 pm.
As for matters directy toncemiog us, he set the: next day for a pre:llmlncry hearing.
fIon
Once again ,
we had prepared but It had oome to naught. Th only reeeming moment came when at'ady,
reading an aff4ayIt, found a coy of the absente ballot and reaJlted that It: did not have th same defec as
the buttery ballot. In efect, Palm Beach county had run a quasl-eerlmel:. Over 45,000 people received al1
absenee baltotwitOt the same problems as the burfy ballot, and aImo5t400,OOpeopl vored in Palm
Beach on Election Day Wih the butterfly ballot. We knew that absnte tende b: be 'Smewhat dlfkrentfrQm
resdent vOtel', but they were stilt a prett gOQd"oorttrol" group for the buttery ballot "trtment" because they
were not that dlff4arent.in fact, absentee voters ted to b more conseative; than e1ectlon.-ay voters, so that
jf we found a fower rate ofvo:ting for Buchanan amon the absanteesthan among the resident voters In Palm
ach County, we would have very strong evidence for tM buttery ballot's efas.
When we go back to Fort Lauderdale, we compar the vote for Buchaoani:mong those who vote absente
with the BUchanan voreamongthosewho voted at countY polling place on Electon Day. We also looked at the
same informaton for nearby Brward and Mlami"Da conties. The reslts were strikmg, and they are
Stmmarl:Z In fJlure 3 . In Broward and Miami-Dade counties, the absentee voters were slightly more likely t:Q
vote for Buc"lnan, btit in Palm BeilchCounty, the !ropiewho CM their vote on Elecon Day
times more likely to vote for Buchanan. This was the smoking gun we had been lOOking for. AU
were almos four
ve hard to beliee that mos oft1e vot Buchanan received In Palm Bech COunty were his.e\ll
made It
Moreovl!r
the figur of 0. 23%
of our
nce
of absentee voters who voted for Buchanan provided a highlV defensible
r.bond for the " true " BUchanan votepecentlge throughout the oounty, am: le us I:() C!ndude that
;apprOximately 2, 400 people cast their voe for Buchanan In error. Once again , the data were converging on the
same answer.
Tuesay night we prejXred late into I:he nJght for a pO$$ble cOlirt appearance. By this time , a number of
lawyers, led by Gerge 13dey, had appeare frm the PhiJadelphia law firm that was connectd to the case
throgh one of the plalnl:iffs. The lawyers were smart and tough
minded, and the legal issues became dear and
vexing. We had excellent evidence to show thaI: the buW1rfy ballot had wreaked havoc with people s votes. But
laga!!y. the caSe had to revolve on a dear point of lawth,at: was violated, and It had to seek a remedy that was
7 of 12
$. "
legal and politically feasible as we!1.
Theorglna! brief filed by Our !awel1 noted that Aortda law require that the CMldates for any Qffi be listed
on the baUotso that the candidate of the part that received the highest number of votes for governor In the
lastgubematOlal electon goeJ'I', and the candidate (if tMpart that re
d the send highes number of
votes goes second. Jeb
&AM,
of CCII.lrse, won the last F10rlda gUbernatorial elec\orJ , $0 thepresidentlal candidate
of his part, GEo
W. Buh, camefil', aM the Democatic eandld
, AI Gore, Should Mye come seond. Sut
did he? AIGore WCt$II$tEd send In the left hand column, but he was third on the ballot In terms of vertical
efi, PatrcK Buchanan s name was clearf above Gore s: Voting for Gore, thEm, required puncing the
third, and not the
con.d, punch hole. The baltot assigned the number "
o George W. Bush
. to patrick
Budanan , Md "5" to At Gore Sythi$ reckoning, Gore. w8$ $#onti on the ballot only if peple in Palm Bech
County counted
9, t
13,
4t
Sf to, If Considifng thiS Mebane wondered alouaif people in Florida
also taught their chltdrert the "
" Instead of the "
()er features of the ballot arguably violate
Flortda law, but it was by no means dear that callng attntion to th
features would be enough to convince a
ludgethat the ballot was defecivE!.
had great hope that the remedy sought would, 01' even could be granted. All five of the
suTt, Induding . (M own, sought: a revote In Palm Beach County. A revote had never occurred In a
preSdentiafelech.m and holding a new eled:onpose l'ous eQU!tproblems.
n ifitwii, no Qile
vote'
Obviously, only th
people who had vote on Election Day Mould be allowed to
\fO in the new election; that
could be cOl1trolled by voting lists. aut what woufd prevent third part votrs from chianging their votes now that
they
knew
that their vo
couldde.rfe
the
ele(on? In Palm
6eCtch COunty
about 1Ot200 peple had ostensbly
voted for third-part candidates. If one takes these votes at fac value, then the third-part candidates of the
nghtOtltained 4,481 votes and thE! third-part candidates of the left; obtaine 5, 969 vote, most ofthem fo
Ralph Nader. 1rall right-leaning votrs went: for 8ush and all Jeft-leanfng votel1 wen for Gore, then Gore would
surely be advCll1tagedln a reoh ButhfsanalySis 1$ too simple because Nader suppo!tl' In f10rlda
were
accordlnloexl: polls and Qur own a!1aly s of voting data , more centrist than elsewhere, and a significant
minori of them would vote for Bush if they switched from Nader. Maybe BuSh wold have the advantage if a
'VQte were called. Whatever the truh, third- part voters po d a real challenge to condudfng a fair revore.
Th fa(t of the butter ballot cae prodaimecl
a Signifint injustice, but the law appered blind to th proble
and unable tc deal with it. Afr spdlnghQurs refining oursttlstca! al'um nts and beomingsc):II*red by the
legal complexities, we went to bed arounq3:30 am feeling ready to testify. The joustng wit the lawyers had
been eXh!larating, but !t ell$O showed how far we had to go.
Palm Beach
and Fort
Lauderda1e:Wednesday 1 November 15
At 7am we left Our h
fCIf the Palm 8each County Corthou$e. We had now been in Florida for severiil days
ana we were
Ing anx!ous to eter-tesif Or go home. Judge Labarga bean the day s procedings by
dlSdo$lng: hiS political backgroUnd. In Ught Of the numerous r$Csals that p ceed hiS seleion as judge for this
ca, he felt that It would be prope for him to outline his past and prent polll;
affliatiOns and he apoogiZed
for nQt doing so the previous day. He note that he was a Cuban Amel1can and had formerly b n actve In
Republican poll CS. He had been appointed by Democat(; Governor Lawo Chiles and, aftr being appointe to
the bench, he had changed hiS p
affilaton to Independent. labarga then took up motions from the Florida
Democatic. part's attmey, Ben Kuehne, who was ashg. the Palm Bech County Canvassing Board to u
totality of the drcnmance stndard" rather than a " detached chad" stndard for judging the Intet of the
voter
In the Palm. 6eatCourtty mantlal reunt. Desite the oral ruling the preious day for the canvassing
board to proced With the r&ut', e(lonoffidals Werwajtil'g for a furter, Immediate ruling directing them
on
guidelines to be u d In thir work During a rece, one O'f us talked with Kuhne and asked him why the
Democratic Part was stying away from the buttrfy ballot ca .. Kuehne saidthCl the decision was being made
at the highest: level, but he was not Slre what the reasing was. He saId that he hed wanted to get involved.
th
Now It was our tum. Our lawyer, Gary Farmer, made us feel good by tellng Judge Labarga that he had expert
I right away. Barr Richard, &Ash' s lawyer, who was partdpating via a phone
Ifnk to Tallahassee, objeced vigorously andcalted the reuest "outrageous" and beyOnd anyting he had
experleood In his years ofpractc.. His list of outrages was !ongand party justed , altough we suspecd that
his. indlgnM:on was. al$O part of the Republican stategy of stallng as much 6s. poSsle. Richrd COmp!alhed that
he had not had a ctance for dIscver. He had not had .8 chance to depos the expert. He had no had time to
get hi!; own exer. He was, after aU, just one lawyer workng for George Buh. The judge noted wryly that he
was
that GeQrge W. 6UShonly had one lawyer, but Gary Farmer wrsely
Coufd the wtmes give
a live proffer of tesmony? That too was unaccptable to Richard, who daimed that farmer was merely seeking
publicity,
wil:es $ WI() were read to
sor
retted.
judge Labarga ended the discussion by saying that he was not sure that he had the power, constituionally, t\!
8of!2
order a revote In aprE!$jdential electon. The fad: might not matter because the law might no!; be abl to solve
the prblem even If It existd. He told the lawyers, " Here Is your homework, Find. me a case anywhere in
AmEi/'lcan history where such a reVOl:e has been ordered In a presidential election, '" He wanted briefs by 5 pm
Thursday. We-adjournd. Our lawyers conducted a pres conference In frant of theoourthotJ5e, but, senSIvE! to
the point Richard had raised about publicity seeking, our counsel kept us away from it.
TIl!; Wednesday hearing: was thebitteroweet high point of our tnI'. The case was goin9 forard, and there might
be a chance of success if the lawyers could find some way to argue for a revote. Bu we would not be testing
anytime soon, and the legal hurdle was
very
high,
we gathared back at Krathen s
to d\'vekp . tw
about the
offce 10 Fort Lauderdale,
and we worked together until early Thul'ay morning
affdavit, one about the GOre supporters woo misakenly voted tlir Buchanan and the other
overv
that wen$1
cu d!$roportOl1atey: by Gore supportrs. Brady took the lead otl the fif' and
eas!srtask, ilnd Mebane taed.
!itudents he had so IovlnQly hel
the.
ond more diffcult OM. Mebane put himse In the position of inviting the
Wand) t:ndthe other methodologist (Brady, Herron, and
d trin (Sekhon and
pl'nton
Shott)1S toliStan to his
and tol1pUO pleQs. TheexpelencewCisingularl unpleasant for him,
but it 'M$ necsary. Tm stndard forstatemetts In our afidavit was that we were J:ornldent"to a reasonable
degree ofsdentiflccertahity. " Taking peer reiew and the highly intense Political ME!thodotogy
Socety summer
ourana!ySis $tl1l'gthened our an.Jumenb; and
assrt a reasonable degree of $dentlfl certaint with great
meetngs i*s our m!1deh , we knew that havlngeacn other afldZ
prevented sloppy thinking. It allowed LIS
tonfidence.
to
The m j" POints of contention regarding the overvote. were how to expolate from. the one;.percent $ample
and how muchaf the overvote In palm
ach Coun!: to attribute to the bu!rfyballot's desgn. High
proportons ofovervotes OtaJrrd in oth elecns that did not employ th. buerfy banot. For the
I;!Ct!ating the number of votes that were changed in P:alm Beach County due to ballot design, it was importnt
to think. carefully about: howto define the baseline lev of error. 16 The heate dlSQ$$on $trained already
purp
momets Improved the clarity of our thoughts
exi)6t.$teqemotlonetl and PhYSical resrves, but the.combative
and argumerits. We made
beter urtderstanding of
progre toard a
consensus. We felt confident about the fad:.
ovrvotes and, eventallYI reached g
Resluton
The fact did I"t m1;tt1;f. On Friday, November 17, JUdge Labarga considered whether there was any legal basis
I think, " he sa!dat the hearing, " I have as dep an appreation of the right to \late as anyone
else . In . this county.. My parent brought me here so I'd have that right. If I rule the COnstitution does not allow
fora relecton, ItwlU
thel1ardes decision! ever make," ("GO? Holdups" 20(0).
fora reV(te.
011 Monday, November:?O, tabra!;a issued hiS opinion. A revete could not be held
cause " our forefather
Induded dear and unambiguous language In the CoiMlo!1 of th United States which reuires that
presenial ' e!ed:ors be eleced on the $amE! day throughout the Unlt States.
o\fer the constltutlona!
prohlbltJQI1 Wa$ seble beuse " the danger of o
candidate benefttng frm an undue. advant:ge In a n:o
ora new elecon is always a strol1poSSiblUty, If anyting,
for
this reason alone, presential elections mu$t be
held on the same day throLlhout the Unit Sttes. "17 The plaintff' reueSt for a revote was denied without
any witess
ThiS rulin
ever being
preente.
was immeiatly appealed and eventl.ally: found it way to the Ronda Supre'me Court. In the ctppeal,
the lawyer fOr one of the
caes that had been conSOidated with QUrs proposed another remedy: $tatstca!
If accepted, this would men that the
would be detined by
anapproi!ch that the Republicans strong'fyopposed when it WCiS $ugge$ted for adjustng
readjustment of the vOt tOls.
prsicy
staJjstca! imputation,
the results of the u.s. Cesus. It seemed unlikely Reublicns would I1nd it anymore palatable fOr " adjustng
the presidential vot.
The Floda supreme COurt I:Qok a differnt: tack than the CIrcuit Court judge, bl4t: they came to the same
dedSion onFJidi:Y f Deceber 1. . The judges unaniffous!y(!or\duded thai; " even 8e;eptJng appellants' allegations,
we. condudeasa mattr of law . that . the palm Bech Count ballot does not OOl'ttute subsantial noncompliance
with the
requirements mandattng the VOiding of the eleci!1l1; "18 The Court' $ contortd dQubte nElgatlve
sugges the judges recognIZd that thE! balot had some defect but did not consider them severe enough to
cC!use the baUot was legal , Judge Labarga's ruling on the reedy was oat necessary
ttgera legal challenge,
and it was vacated. In the end , the palm Beach county butterfy ballot case foui1edon the unwiHrngnes of
the Flonda SOpremeCour\ to fine! the ballot defed, as a matteraf law, and not on their likelyreluctante to
recommend a revote,
stutry
Did we accomplish anyting?
Legally, 1i. But practcally, Our effort, along wit those of others
step ina natlimal civics lesn about the inadequacies of our voting and vo
:. of1
, were the firs
'"untln9 systems.
We made our
case through the Internet to academics around the country and our results were reported widely in the news
ballot itself provided one of the phrases that wil surely endure from this
always be a catchphrase for bad design,
media. And the buterfy
election. It wil
What We Learned
The Palm Beach butterfy ballot story reads like a classic case of conservative jurisprudence recoiling from trying
to right wrongs that vex the human condition. Anyone can see that the stndard for callng a ballot defectve
must be very high and that revotes should rarely be called, especially in presidential elections where the Humpty
Dumpty of third- part preferences cannot be put back together again after the Initial vote.
All this would seem more palatable to us If the ultimate outcome of the Florida election follies had not been a 5-4
decision of the U. S. Supreme Court that used the Constitution s equal protection clause and arcane aspect of
electoral college procedures to justify the abandonment of a statewide recount. If equal protection mattered so
much for the statewide recount , why did it not matter for the citizens of Palm Beach County?
Perhaps these questions can be answered by reviewing the legal arguments and judicial opinions In the torrent
of election law cases that spouted forth from Aorida. But the answero seem a bit hollow to us. They would
resonate better if a statewide recount , with suitable standards , had been undertaken to decide the election.
Notes
1. Makingmattero worse , the only office for which the ballot listed candidates on both sides of the booklet , thus
was for the presidency.
creating the n butterfly, "
2. There are two other stories regarding this ballot. David McReynolds, a Socialist Party candidate for president
was listed just below . Buchanan on the right- hand side of the ballot with some overlap with AI Gore on the
left- hand Side. MCReynolds received 302 votes in the initial Palm Beach County count, almost 50% of the 618
votes he received statewide , and 268 more than he received in any other county. Howard Phillps of the
conservative Constitution Part was listed below McReynolds with some overlap with Ralph Nader. Phillps ' 188
votes in Palm Beach County were 78 more than he received in any other Aorida county, and these votes were
14% of his statewide total. If the Buchanan , Philips, and McReynolds votes are taken seriously, then Palm
Beach County has the remarkable distinction of being the stronghold among Florida counties for rlght- wingers
Buch man and Phillips and left- winger McReynolds.
3. We were not the only ones to produce analyses regarding the butterfy ballot. Within four days of the election
the following people had posted analyses: Greg Adams and Chris Fastnow , Carnegie Mellon University; Layth
Alwan , University of Wisconsin , Milwaukee; Christopher Carroll , Johns Hopkins University; Burt Monroe , Indiana
University; Craig Fox, Duke University; Bruce Hansen, Unlveroity of Wisconsin, Madison; John Irons , Amherst
College; Robert Max Jackson, New York University; Jonathan O' Keefe, Peter Orozag, and Jonathan Orszag,
Sebago Associates; Til Rosenband , MIT; Matthew Ruben , Universty of California, San Diego; Robert Shimer
Prnceton University; and Chris Volinsky, AT&T Labs. We apologize to anyone we have missed, and we note that
many others added work later.
4. Considering the limits of the time available, Adams and Fastow s (2000) initial analysis proved very useful
and informative, but methodologist are picky people, and it was clear that their work was only a starting point,
Adams and Fastnow improved their work in the subsequent days.
5. They also plotted Buchanan vote versus Bush vote and Buchanan vote versus Gore vote.
6. Indeed , skeptics such as Robert Shimer and Bo Honore of Princeton University and Patrick Anderson of
Anderson Consulting soon jumped in to make exactly these points. Shimer (2000) argued that " the evidence
that Palm Beach voted too much for Buchanan is based on a spurious correlation driven to a large extent by the
size of Palm Beach County. The oft- quoted significance of this result is based on an erroneous assumption of
normal residuals, which IS inapplicable given the low average vote share for Buchanan. " Our methods avoid
these pitfalls.
7. The authors were listed in reverse alphabetical order.
8. Wand et al. also completed their overvote analysis by using the total number of votes in the Senate election
for each precinct as a proxy measure for the total number of ballots. Subsequent analysis using the actual
number of overvotes has led to the same conclusion.
9. In the 1996 presidential election , Tilman votero cast 288 votes for Clinton , 102 for Dole , 19 for Perot, and 2
10 of 12
,"
for the remaining candidates.
10. Beverly Rogero and Ray Kaplan v The Elections Canvassing Commission of the State of Florida; Govemor Jeb
Bush; Secretary of State Katherine Harris; Clay Roberts , Director of the Division of Elections for the State of
Florida; Theresa LePore , Supervisor of Elections for Palm Beach County; The Palm Beach County Electons
Canvassing Commission; AI Gore; and George W. Bush. 15th Clr Ct Fla. CLOOI0992AF:. The state- level
defendants were subsequently dropped and , on November 13, the case was consolidated with other similar
citizen s actions by Administrative Order No. 2. 061-11/00.
11. Among other things, Brady checked to see if Reform Part support was especially strong In Palm Beach
County. He convinced himself that Reform Part registration was low, that across precinct it had no relationship
to the Buchanan vote , and that votes for other Reform Part candidates had no relationship to Buchanan
support.
12. The machine recount completed In Palm Beach County on November 11 recorded 19 147 overvotes , while
the complete manual count completed on November 26 recorded 19, 213 overvotes. The Palm Beach County
Supervisor of Elections reported these counts on a file server at Ql?t:?!? !.911$,9rQL.?lcctionresults/2000jGEN/
13. The Gore campaign selected three of the precinct (162E , 193 and 193E) contributing 4 346 of the 4 694
ballots In the sample. The Elections Commission selected the fourth precinct (6B) to get as near as possible to
one percent of all the ballots cast in the county.
14. This story is consistent with later reviews of Gore s decision-making. " Regarding the butterfy ballots
Democratic field workero were collectng some 8, 000 affidavits from confused voters , and Mr. Gore s lawyers
were eager to litigate. But some In Mr. Gore s dining room that firs Saturday night (November 11) worred that
the proposed remedy-- presumi:bly a new vote of some klnd--would make him seem unreasonable and extreme
testing the patience of both his partisans and the public " (Sack 2000). The Gore campaign never directly
associated itself with the butterfly ballot case.
15. Herron heard only part of the argument because he returned to Boston on Wednesday evening.
16. We were at that time unaware of the stories that had broken about the large number of spoiled ballots In
Duval County, where the presidential ballot spanned two pages but lacked the two key features of the butterfy
ballot, Afer leaving Florida we were able to isolate key differences between the ballots in Duval and Palm Beach
Counties, but it would have been very diffcult for us to complete such analyses Wednesday night in the course
of preparing our affdavits.
17. Fifteenth Judicial Circuit, Palm Beach Florida Order on Plaintiff' s Complaint for Declaratory, Injunctive, and
Other Relief Arising from Plaintiffs ' Claims of Massive Voter Confusion Resulting from the Use of a ' Buterfy
Type Ballot During the Election Held on November 7 , 2000"
18. Fladell
, et al. v Palm Beach County
Canvassing Board ,
etc. et al. Sup Ct Fla. 00-2373.
References
Adams , Greg D., and Chris Fastnow. 2000. " A Note on Voting Irregularities In Palm Beach, FL" " Manuscript.
Accessd: January 22, 2001.
Brady, Henry. 2000. " What Happened in Palm Beach?" 1!t;Q?1;a berkeiev-,.?i!,iJ. Manuscript. Accessed: January 22,
2001.
GOP Holdups In Palm Beach Upset Dems, " 2000. Associated Press , November 17.
Markey, Bob. 2000. " Palm Beach Democrats Confident; Tension Rise as Thousands Join Rev. Jesse Jacksn in
Downtown March, " The Stuart News/Port St. Lucie News, November 14 , Ai.
Sack , Kevin. 2000. " In Desperate Florida FIght , Gore s
A26.
Shimer ,
Robert. 2000.
Hard Strategic Calls.
The New York Times , December 15
Election 2000" . Manuscript. Accessed: January 22 , 2001.
Verba , Sidney, Kay Schlozman , and Henry Brady. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American
Politics. Cambridge , MA: Harvard University Press.
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Voters Say They Erred in Tilman. " 2000. Beauford Gazette, November 10.
Wand , Jonathan N. , Kenneth W. Shott , Jasjeet S, Sekhon , Walter R. Mebane Jr. , and Michael C. Herron. 2000.
Voting Irregularities In Palm Beach County " . Manuscript. Accessed: January 22, 2001.
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