POLAND 2015 ECONOMY

Transcription

POLAND 2015 ECONOMY

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
POLAND 2015
REPORT
ECONOMY
WARSAW, 2015
Prepared by:
Ministry of Economy
Strategy and Analyses Department
Agnieszka Albrecht, Kazimierz Cwalina, Michał Drobniak, Andrzej Grabarczyk, Urszula Kmita, Monika
Krupa-Leończyk, Agata Ludwiniak, Diana Łukaszek-Rozpendowska, Agata Macek, Kazimierz Miszczyk,
Marcin Mucha, Marta Ostrowska, Maria Szkutnicka-Pieniążek, Tomasz Rejment, Jerzy Rutkowski, Rafał
Staśkiewicz, Elżbieta Szułczyńska, Jakub Świetlik, Tomasz Tyc, Tomasz Ugryn, Monika Walczak,
Krzysztof Wójtowicz, Marlena Zdanowska, Marcin Zelman
in cooperation with:
Economic Regulation Improvement Department, Energy Department, Renewable Energy Department,
Nuclear Energy Department, European Funds Department, Electronic Economy Department, Department
of Mining, Innovation and Industry Department, Support Instruments Department, Trade Policy
Department, Oil and Gas Department, European Affairs Department, Department for Operational
Programmes Implementation
under the supervision of:
Aneta Piątkowska – Director of the Strategy and Analyses Department
translated by:
LIDEX Sp. z o.o.
ISSN 1643-2681
POLAND 2015 - ECONOMY REPORT
SYNTHESIS__________________________________________________________________________ 7
1.
1.1.
1.2.
MAJOR TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY ___________________________________ 29
GENERAL CONDITION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 2014 _______________________29
ECONOMIC SITUATION ON CRUCIAL WORLD MARKETS _________________________31
1.2.1.
1.2.2.
1.2.3.
1.2.4.
1.2.5.
1.3.
1.4.
53
54
54
55
56
Free movement of persons ___________________________________________________
Industrial Policy ____________________________________________________________
Climate and energy package__________________________________________________
Adjustments in the energy area ________________________________________________
Internal market and relations with third countries __________________________________
70
72
73
75
77
ABSORPTION OF EU FUNDS _________________________________________________82
2.5.1.
2.5.2.
3.
3.1.
3.2.
4.
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
Gross Domestic Product _____________________________________________________
Industry __________________________________________________________________
Construction ______________________________________________________________
Labour market _____________________________________________________________
Inflation __________________________________________________________________
ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION ___________________________56
THE EUROPE 2020 STRATEGY AND THE NATIONAL REFORM PROGRAMME ________60
FREE MOVEMENT OF GOODS AND SERVICES __________________________________66
2.4.1.
2.4.2.
2.4.3.
2.4.4.
2.4.5.
2.5.
Changes in world prices _____________________________________________________ 42
Exchange rate variations _____________________________________________________ 43
Changes in global trade turnover in main regions __________________________________ 44
PROSPECTS FOR GLOBAL TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN 2015 ______________________48
GLOBAL PUBLIC FINANCES _________________________________________________49
POLAND IN THE EUROPEAN UNION _________________________________________ 53
POLAND AND THE EUROPEAN UNION ________________________________________53
2.1.1.
2.1.2.
2.1.3.
2.1.4.
2.1.5.
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
31
32
32
37
38
ACTUAL GROWTH IN GLOBAL COMMODITIES TRADE IN 2014 ____________________40
PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL COMMODITIES TURNOVER
IN 2014 ___________________________________________________________________42
1.4.1.
1.4.2.
1.4.3.
1.5.
1.6.
2.
2.1.
United States ______________________________________________________________
Japan ___________________________________________________________________
Western Europe and the eurozone _____________________________________________
Main emerging markets ______________________________________________________
Commonwealth of Independent States __________________________________________
Financial perspective for 2007-2013 ____________________________________________ 82
Financial perspective for 2014-2020 ____________________________________________ 86
COMPETITIVENESS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY _______________________________ 93
INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS RANKINGS _______________________________93
POLAND AND THE EU COUNTRIES ___________________________________________97
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ______________________________________________ 99
GDP DYNAMICS AND GROWTH DRIVERS ______________________________________99
INTERNAL DEMAND _______________________________________________________104
IMPACT OF INVESTMENTS ON GDP DYNAMICS ________________________________107
IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON GDP DYNAMICS ____________________________________109
CONTRIBUTION OF SECTORS TO GDP FORMATION ____________________________111
GDP PER CAPITA IN POLAND COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES _______________113
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
5.
5.1.
5.2.
5.3.
5.4.
6.
6.1.
6.2.
6.3.
6.4.
6.5.
7.
7.1.
LABOUR MARKET _______________________________________________________ 115
EMPLOYED PERSONS _____________________________________________________115
UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ________________________________117
STRUCTURAL MISMATCH ON THE LABOUR MARKET __________________________118
FOREIGN MIGRATION FOR ECONOMIC REASONS _____________________________122
FOREIGN TRADE ________________________________________________________ 125
SITUATION IN POLISH FOREIGN TRADE IN 2014 _______________________________125
GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE OF FOREIGN TRADE TURNOVER _________________127
CHANGES IN THE COMMODITY STRUCTURE OF TRADE IN GOODS _______________132
FOREIGN TRADE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2015 _________________________________137
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TRADE IN GOODS ___________________138
INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY _______________________________________ 141
PRICES__________________________________________________________________141
7.1.1.
7.1.2.
7.2.
MONETARY POLICY _______________________________________________________145
7.2.1.
7.2.2.
7.2.3.
8.
8.1.
8.2.
8.3.
9.
9.1.
Basic factors influencing the implementation of the monetary policy __________________ 145
Monetary policy implementation in 2014 ________________________________________ 145
Instruments of monetary policy implementation __________________________________ 146
PUBLIC FINANCE ________________________________________________________ 149
STATE BUDGET __________________________________________________________149
PUBLIC FINANCE _________________________________________________________152
MEETING THE MAASTRICHT TREATY CRITERIA _______________________________155
INDUSTRY ______________________________________________________________ 157
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE ____________________________157
9.1.1.
9.1.2.
9.1.3.
9.2.
Prices of consumer goods and services ________________________________________ 142
Prices of industrial and construction-assembly output _____________________________ 143
Industrial output dynamics ___________________________________________________ 157
Structure of output sold in individual sections and divisions of industry ________________ 161
Manufacture of selected products _____________________________________________ 163
SITUATION IN SELECTED SECTORS _________________________________________164
9.2.1.
9.2.2.
9.2.3.
9.2.4.
9.2.5.
9.2.6.
Hard coal mining __________________________________________________________
Automotive sector _________________________________________________________
Chemical industry sector (including pharmaceuticals) _____________________________
Iron and steel metallurgy sector ______________________________________________
Electronics sector _________________________________________________________
Wood-based sectors _______________________________________________________
164
167
168
171
173
174
10.
POLAND’S ENERGY SECURITY ____________________________________________ 177
10.1. SITUATION ON THE FUELS AND ENERGY MARKET ____________________________177
10.1.1.
10.1.2.
10.1.3.
10.1.4.
10.1.5.
10.1.6.
10.1.7.
10.1.8.
Security of the national energy sector __________________________________________
Situation in the energy sector in 2014 __________________________________________
Renewable energy sources (RES) ____________________________________________
Energy efficiency in the economy _____________________________________________
European greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme _____________________________
Nuclear Power ____________________________________________________________
Security of the oil sector ____________________________________________________
Security of the gas sector ___________________________________________________
177
178
179
182
185
188
189
190
10.2. IDENTIFICATION OF THREATS ______________________________________________192
4
11.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY _______________________________________________ 199
11.1. GROSS VALUE ADDED AND SOLD OUTPUT OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY ___199
11.1.1.
11.1.2.
Macroeconomic conditions of the construction sector’s dynamics and production volume __ 199
Dynamics and structure of construction and assembly output _______________________ 200
11.2. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION _____________________________________________201
11.2.1.
11.2.2.
11.3.
12.
12.1.
12.2.
12.3.
12.4.
12.5.
12.6.
13.
13.1.
The general situation of residential construction sector ____________________________ 201
Residential construction in 2014 ______________________________________________ 203
ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE ______________203
SERVICES SECTOR ______________________________________________________ 207
VALUE ADDED (MARKET AND NON-MARKET SERVICES) _______________________207
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SERVICES SECTOR _____________________208
TRADE AND REPAIR ______________________________________________________210
E-COMMERCE ____________________________________________________________212
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE __________________________________________214
GENERAL ISSUES AFFECTING THE SERVICES SECTOR ________________________216
ENTERPRISES___________________________________________________________ 219
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND TRANSFORMATION OF STATE-OWNED
ENTERPRISES____________________________________________________________219
13.1.1.
13.1.2.
13.1.3.
13.1.4.
13.1.5.
Ownership transformation in state-owned enterprises _____________________________
Ownership transformation process ____________________________________________
Revenues from privatisation and budgetary revenues from dividends _________________
Ownership transformations in 2015 ____________________________________________
Small business development _________________________________________________
219
221
223
223
224
13.2. FINANCIAL STANDING OF ENTERPRISES _____________________________________227
13.2.1.
13.2.2.
13.2.3.
13.2.4.
13.2.5.
13.2.6.
Revenues, costs and results on individual types of activities ________________________
Capital expenditures and self-financing opportunities ______________________________
Debt, receivables, financial liquidity ___________________________________________
Financial situation in sections of the economy ___________________________________
Financial situation in ownership sectors ________________________________________
Financial situation in enterprises according to their size ____________________________
227
229
229
230
235
236
13.3. CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND POLISH FOREIGN INVESTMENTS _________________242
13.3.1.
13.3.2.
Capital expenditure ________________________________________________________ 242
Polish foreign investments __________________________________________________ 246
13.4. FDI INFLOW TO POLAND ___________________________________________________248
13.4.1.
13.4.2.
13.4.3.
13.4.4.
13.4.5.
The role and importance of the companies with foreign capital_______________________
FDI inflow to Poland _______________________________________________________
FDI by country of capital origin _______________________________________________
The sectoral breakdown of FDI inflows _________________________________________
Investment attractiveness of Poland ___________________________________________
248
251
254
257
258
13.5. INNOVATIVENESS OF POLISH ENTERPRISES AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT _________259
13.5.1.
13.5.2.
Innovativeness of Polish enterprises ___________________________________________ 259
Institutional environment of Polish enterprises ___________________________________ 263
13.6. DEVELOPMENT OF ENTERPRISES___________________________________________267
13.6.1.
13.6.2.
13.6.3.
Economic regulations ______________________________________________________ 267
Barriers to the development of entrepreneurship _________________________________ 271
Entrepreneurship support instruments _________________________________________ 274
5
SYNTHESIS
The global economic crisis in the years 2008-2009 led in Poland to a significant decrease in GDP
growth (to 2.6% in 2009). In the years 2010-2011, the economic activity increased. GDP growth
accelerated: to 3.7% in 2010 and 4.8% in 2011. In the next two years, the second wave of the global
economic crisis affected the Polish economy. The economic growth rate slowed down again. In 2012,
GDP increased by 1.8%, and in 2013 by 1.7%. However, in the 2nd half of 2013 symptoms of recovery
were observed. In the 3rd quarter, GDP grew by 2.4%, and in the 4th quarter the growth rate accelerated
even further, to 3.0%. That favourable trend was continued in 2014. In all quarters, GDP growth rate
was well above 3.0%, and the annual growth was at the level of 3.4%.
In the years 2012-2013, as compared to 2010-2011, the structure of the factors influencing GDP growth
rate changed significantly. While in the years 2010-2011 the factor decisive for GDP growth was the
domestic demand, in the following two years the influence of the domestic demand remained, in fact,
neutral, and the factor which backed GDP growth was net export. In 2014, the situation changed
significantly. Again, as was the case in the years 2010-2011, the factor which was decisive for GDP
growth was the domestic demand, contribution of which to GDP growth amounted to 4.8% (0.4% in
2013), whereas the contribution of the net export was negative -1.4%, as compared to the positive
contribution in 2013 (1.3%).
In the foreign trade an increase both in exports and imports was recorded in 2014, as was the case a
year earlier. However, while in 2013 the export growth rate was faster than the import growth rate (8.0%
and 1.9% respectively), in 2014 the situation changed – exports grew slightly slower than imports (7.0%
and 7.3% respectively). The change in the relation between the export and import growth rates resulted
in a negative trade balance with foreign countries from EUR 2.0 billion to EUR 2.7 billion.
The year 2014 saw a visible improvement in the real economy. The industrial output increased by 3.1%
(in 2013 by 1.8%), whereas the construction and assembly output grew by 3.0%, as compared to the
5.6% decline a year earlier. Investment outlays increased by 8.7% (in 2013 they dropped by 1.2%). The
average employment rate increased by 1.0%, as compared to the 1.8% decrease a year earlier. As of
the end of 2014, the registered unemployment rate amounted to 11.5%, and was 1.9 p.p. lower than a
year earlier.
Furthermore, in 2014 improvement of the public finance situation was recorded. In 2013, the general
government deficit accounted for 4.0% of GDP. In 2014, this relation decreased to 3.2%. In addition, the
general government debt-to-GDP ratio decreased from 57.1% in 2013 to 50.1% in 2014.
Poland’s economic situation in comparison with the other European Union countries remains favourable.
Poland is one of the fastest developing countries in Europe. As a result of the faster pace of the
economic growth in Poland than in other countries of European Union (28), there is a gradual increase
in the relation between GDP per capita in Poland and GDP per capita in the EU. Based on the
purchasing power parity, the relation increased from 49.8% in 2005 to 61.8% in 2011 and 68.9% in
2014.
7
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
EXTERNAL CONDITIONS. In 2014, the global GDP increased by 3.4%, as was the case a year earlier.
The results achieved in 2014 confirm the tendency observed over the last years that sustaining the
global development trend is possible thanks to faster development of developing countries than
developed ones. GDP in developing countries increased by 4.6% (by 5.0% in 2013), whereas in
developed ones by 1.8% (by 1.4% in 2013). It needs to be pointed out, however, that in 2014 a
slowdown of the growth rate was recorded in developing countries, and an acceleration in developed
ones.
In the group of developed countries, a visible recovery took place in the eurozone, where after a GDP
decrease of 0.3% in 2013, a 0.9% growth was recorded in 2014. What is really satisfying is the
significant improvement of the situation in our main trade partner, i.e. Germany, where GDP increased
by 1.6% as compared to 0.2% a year ago. In the USA, GDP growth rate slightly accelerated from 2.2%
in 2013 to 2.4% in 2014, whereas in Japan a 0.1% drop in GDP was recorded (in 2013 there was a
1.6% increase).
GDP growth in the Chinese economy amounted to 7.4% in 2014 (in the previous two years it was
slightly higher, i.e. 7.7%). However, the Indian economy accelerated, where in 2014 a 7.2% growth was
recorded, as compared to 6.4% in 2013. A growth slowdown was recorded in the countries of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (from 2.2% to 1.0%), including in Russia (from 1.3% to 0.6%).
According to the IMF, GDP growth rate in the global economy in 2015 will slow down to 3.3%. A further
improvement of the situation may be expected in the Eurozone, where an acceleration of the growth
rate to 1.4% is expected. In Germany, the expected growth rate is 1.6%, as was the case in 2014. In the
USA, a 2% GDP increase is expected, whereas Japan is expected to get out of the recession – after a
GDP drop in 2014 in the subsequent year a 0.7% increase is expected. The Chinese and Indian
economies should develop slightly slower than in 2014, but still at a pace near 7%. The most
pessimistic forecast applies to the Commonwealth of Independent States, where a GDP decrease of
2.2% is expected in 2015 (in 2014 a 1.0% increase was reported). In Russia, GDP is expected to
decrease by 3.4% as compared to a 0.6% increase in 2014). The above-mentioned forecasts are
burdened with significant uncertainty, mainly in the context of the development of the crisis in Ukraine
and its influence on the EU-USA-Russia relations.
According to the IMF, in 2014 the global trade turnover in goods and services increased by 3.4% (3.5%
a year ago), i.e. at the same pace as global GDP growth. The export of the economically developed
countries increased by 3.3% as compared to 3.1% a year earlier, whereas of the developing ones by
3.4% as compared to 4.6% in 2013. The ratio of export growth rates in developing and developed
countries decreased from 1.48 in 2013 to 1.03 in 2014. In 2014, the import of the economically
developed countries increased by 3.3% (2.1% a year earlier), whereas of the developing ones by 3.4%
as compared to 5.2% in 2013.
According to WTO estimates, the volume of global trade will increase by 3.3% in 2015 and by another
4% in 2016. At the same time, WTO analysts emphasize that those forecasts carry the risk connected
with persisting geopolitical tensions and weak economic growth which is of key importance for trade.
In 2014, the American dollar appreciated in relation to currencies of major emerging economies which
resulted from disturbances observed at the beginning of the year on their financial markets resulting in
weaker medium-term development perspectives in comparison to highly-developed economies. In
general, exchange rate variations occurring in those economies in 2014 were convergent with the
general trend of devaluation of real effective exchange rates of local currencies.
8
COMPETITIVENESS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY. As far as the international comparisons and
ranking are concerned, the Polish economy is still excluded from the highly-competitive economies
group. However, over the recent years, Poland's position has been systematically improving. This
proves that progress has been made and that the implemented changes – including, in particular,
changes related to deregulation – are proceeding in the right direction.
In order to evaluate the progress in the implementation of the EU social and economic strategy, i.e. the
Europe 2020 strategy, a set of ten so-called headline indicators, divided into five problem categories,
was adopted. In the context of competitiveness, one should pay attention in particular to indicators
concerning innovation and education. Compared to the EU average, Poland has a relatively good
standing in terms of education, whereas in the area of innovation, energy efficiency, poverty and social
exclusion our country ranks far below the EU average.
ECONOMIC GROWTH. Over the last years, Poland’s economic activity has been steadily on the rise.
Despite the fact that GDP growth in 2012 and 2013 was rather low (the annual average growth in that
period was 1.7%), it remained positive. In 2014, GDP growth rate accelerated to 3.4%. The Polish GDP
has been on the increase continually since 1992, which was not disrupted by the 2008/2009 crisis. The
stable economic development ensures bigger trust in the economic policy pursued by the government. It
also leads to bigger interest in the domestic market by Polish and foreign investors.
In the subsequent quarters of 2012, GDP growth rate gradually decreased (from 3.7% in Q1 to 0.2% in
Q4). In 2012, GDP grew by 1.8%. In 2013, the annual growth rate slightly slowed down (to 1.7%), but
the economic activity grew by the quarter, which was reflected in the increasing GDP growth (from 0.5%
in Q1 to 2.4% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q4). A significant improvement was recorded in 2014, when in the
individual quarters the growth rate was well over 3.0%. In Q1 of 2015, GDP grew by 3.6%.
Over the last three years, the role of factors which influence the economic growth has changed
significantly. In 2012 and 2013, the domestic demand did not contribute to GDP growth. In 2012, its
contribution was negative (-0.4 p.p.), whereas in 2013 it was positive but small (0.4 p.p.). In such a
situation, the factor which determined GDP growth was the net export, which contributed 2.2 p.p. and
1.3 p.p. respectively. In 2014, the situation changed completely. The only factor which determined GDP
growth was the domestic demand, whose contribution accounted for 4.8 p.p., whereas the net export’s
contribution was negative (-1.4 p.p.).
INVESTMENT. Following a high increase in investment outlays in 2011 (by 10.6%), a drop was
observed in the two following years, by 2.8% in 2012 and 1.2% in 2013. The situation improved as late
as in 2014, when investment outlays increased by 8.7%. In the first half of 2015, investment outlays
grew by 14.6%.1 In 2014, investment outlays amounted to PLN 248.9 billion. The structure of outlays (in
current prices) was dominated by expenditures on buildings and structures (57.0%). The share of
outlays on machines and equipment accounted for 31.3% and on means of transport - for 10.8%.
1
At companies which employed over 49 persons.
9
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Furthermore, Polish entrepreneurs increasingly more often decide to conduct business abroad. For a
long time, they, however, limited themselves to exporting, but together with economic changes which
occurred since the beginning of the transformation and resulted in the increase in entrepreneurship and
greater participation of the private sector in the economy, Polish companies started also to invest
abroad. Strengthening the position in the domestic market has encouraged many of them to pursue
more bold strategies which also include capital expansion. An increased interest in the foreign markets
was manifested by increasingly evident involvement of Polish companies in mergers and acquisitions
abroad, activity in form of branches or branch offices, or finally by construction of production facilities.
Accession of Poland to the European Union had also significant impact on increased presence of Polish
companies in the foreign markets. Although substantial concentration of investments on the European
market is still being observed, there are still many companies that invest on other continents: in Asia,
both Americas or in Africa. Due to those investments, Poland has become one of the largest foreign
investor among new Member States of the European Union (UE-12), as the cumulative value of foreign
direct investments amounted to approx. EUR 20.6 billion at the end of 2013.
Despite the increase in the value of Polish foreign investments, in the next few years Poland will rather
remain a net importer of capital. On one hand it results from the policy pursued which aims at attracting
foreign investors to Poland, and, on the other hand, some Polish entities do not feel powerful and
innovative enough to compete in the global market.
Companies with foreign capital and investments made by them in the last decades fostered qualitative
changes in the Polish economy. They resulted in increased technological advancement which led to
increased effectiveness, diffusion of technology as well as production and export of more processed
goods. Foreign companies have contributed to the modernization of industry and production processes,
as well as shaped the development of the service sector. They often initiated innovative undertakings,
stimulated and facilitated the implementation of new technological solutions allowing numerous
synergistic effects.
Another significant factor which increased the investment attractiveness of Poland was Polish accession
to the EU. Even though before entering the EU, Poland was a relatively attractive country, accession to
the EU guaranteed stability, predictability and security to foreign investors which in turn allowed them to
plan their activities in longer time horizon and with less risk. In the years 2004-2013, the value of FDI
inflow to Poland amounted to approx. EUR 100 billion. Together with the increase in the FDI inflow
directed to Poland, Polish share in global FDI flows has also risen. In the pre-accession period of 1999–
2003, it amounted to slightly over 0.7%, whereas in the years 2004–2011 it exceeded 1.1%.
The changes in the Polish economy initiated together with the transformation led to strengthening of
Poland’s economic situation in the world. Furthermore, its membership in international organisations
and accession to the EU structures, have influenced the way in which Poland is perceived by foreign
investors. They are still very interested in our country. This is confirmed by results obtained by Poland in
the reports and rankings of investment attractiveness. Investment climate assessments by foreign
entrepreneurs are getting better from year to year.
10
INDUSTRY. After a relatively fast growth of industrial output in years 2010 and 2011 (respectively by
9.0% and 7.5%), a significant deceleration of the pace of growth occurred in the following three years. In
2012, output increased by 0.5%, in 2013 – by 1.8%, while in 2014 – by 3.1%. Over the last three years,
the output growth rate accelerated from year to year. In the first half of 2015, industrial output grew by
4.6%, compared to a 4.3% increase in the first half of the previous year2.
The manufacturing sector, accounting for more than 80% of overall production, has a decisive impact on
the growth rate of industrial output. In 2014, output in this section grew by 4.3%. The second section in
which growth in output was observed was the water supply, sewerage and waste management section
(up by 2.7%). In the remaining two sections, there was a decrease in output.
The tendencies observed in Poland as regards the industrial output dynamics in each section in the
long-term perspective correspond to those observed in economically developed countries. Output in the
manufacturing section, which shapes the dynamics in the entire industry, is experiencing the fastest
growth. Meanwhile, output in the mining and energy sections is on a decline. In 2014, as compared to
2005, overall industrial output increased by 50.9%, including an increase in the manufacturing section
output by 63.4%. At the same time, the output of mining and quarrying section and electricity, gas,
steam and air conditioning supply section dropped by 10.8% and 9.1%, respectively. A growth by 46.1%
was observed in the water supply, sewerage and waste management section.
In 2014, 16 out of 22 examined divisions of the manufacturing section recorded output growth
(compared to 12 in 2013). The largest increase occurred in the manufacture of furniture, computers,
electronic and optical products, and textiles. The largest decline was observed in the manufacture of
other transport equipment and in the chemical industry.
The manufacturing section demonstrates a substantial degree of diversity in terms of output dynamics in
the long-term perspective. In 2014, in comparison to 2005, the largest increase (nearly threefold)
occurred in the manufacture of electrical equipment and manufacture of computer, electrical and optical
products. An increase by over 200% was observed in the manufacture of metal products. A decline
concerned two areas: manufacture of tobacco products (down by 28%) and manufacture of wearing
apparel (down by 9%).
The average employment in the industry in 2014 amounted to 2,677,000 people and was 1.9% higher
than the year before (in 2013, employment dropped by 1.8%, and the decline was recorded in all
sections). The employment increased in manufacturing (by 2.9%) and water supply, sewerage and
waste management (by 1.8%). In the remaining sections, employment decreased.
Labour efficiency measured by output sold per one employed person increased in 2014 by 1.2%
(compared to a 3.7% increase in the previous year). The main reason for the decrease in the growth
rate of labour efficiency in 2014 was the dynamic growth in employment. In 2014, efficiency increased in
three sections, with the highest increase recorded in manufacturing (by 1.4%). A decline in efficiency (by
0.7%) was observed in the mining sector.
In 2014, similarly to 2013, the labour efficiency growth rate was slower than the real wage growth rate,
which resulted in higher unit labour costs (1.7% as compared to 0.2% a year earlier). In 2014, unit
labour costs increased in all sections of the industry. The highest increase was observed in
manufacturing (up by 2.9%) and water supply, sewerage and waste management (up by 2.2%).
2
Data concerning the first half of 2014 and 2015 pertain to business entities which employ more than 9 individuals.
11
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. The construction industry constitutes one of the main branches of
economy, aiming at satisfying the basic material needs of citizens. The deciding factors having an
impact on demand for construction services and enabling construction sector growth are, primarily, the
volume and structure of investments in the economy, the general economic trends on the market and
the general economic situation of the population.
After a dynamic growth of the construction and assembly output in general in 2011 (by 11.0%), there
was a decrease in the output in the following two years: in 2012 – by 7.3%, while in 2013 – by 5.6%. In
2014, the downward tendency came to an end, and the output rose by 3.0%.
In 2014, a total of 143.2 thousand new apartments were commissioned – i.e. 1.3% less than in 2013.
The decrease in the number of dwellings completed pertained to individual construction, communal
housing and cooperative housing. More apartments were commissioned in the sector of apartments
intended for sale or rent, social housing rent and company apartments.
FOREIGN TRADE. The dynamics of the Polish export largely depends on the global economic
conditions, including, in particular, on the markets of our main trade partners, among which the crucial
one is the European Union, where 77% of Polish goods sold abroad are sent.
Recently a slow but stable economic recovery has been observed in the European Union. According to
the OECD data, after the stagnation recorded in the EU in 2013, including GDP decrease of 0.3% in the
eurozone, the year 2014 saw a growth of the EU economies at the level of 1.3%, including 0.9% in the
eurozone countries.
What has a significant influence on the Polish foreign trade is also the economic situation of the
Commonwealth of Independent States, in particular Russia and Ukraine. The situation of Russia in the
context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, drop in the crude oil prices and foreign sanctions emphasised
the economy’s hidden structural weaknesses. The slump in the crude oil prices, strained financial
situation, international economic sanctions and diminishing credibility translated into nearly a twofold
slowdown of the economic growth in Russia, to 0.6% in 2014. The deterioration of the business situation
in Russia influenced the economic situation in the whole CIS, whose GDP increased in 2014 by 1% as
compared to 2.2% a year earlier.
On the other hand, the most important factors of Poland’s foreign trade exchange in 2014 include e.g.
relative stabilisation of the nominal PLN exchange rate against two main settlement currencies in the
Polish trade exchange, i.e. EUR and USD. The average EUR/PLN exchange rate weakened by 0.3%
(YoY) and USD/PLN exchange rate by 0.2%.
In 2014, the export of goods amounted to EUR 165.8 billion and import to EUR 168.4 billion. The export
growth rate amounted to 7.0% as compared to 8.0% a year earlier, whereas import growth rate 7.3% as
compared to 1.9%. The change in the relation between the export and import growth rate resulted in an
increase of the negative trade balance from EUR 2.0 billion in 2013 to EUR 2.7 billion in 2014.
A vast majority of the goods exported is sent to the markets of developed countries (84.1% in 2014).
The EU markets accounted for 77.5% of the Polish export, out of which Germany accounted for 26.3%.
All the above-mentioned ratios were higher in 2014 than a year earlier. In the import structure,
developed countries accounted for 65.9%, including the EU – 59.0%. On the other hand, the import
from Russia accounted for 10.3%, whereas from China 10.4%. The surplus in exchange with developed
countries generated in 2014 amounted to EUR 28.4 billion (EUR 23.4 billion a year earlier). As regards
12
the exchange with Russia and China, a deficit of EUR 10.4 billion and EUR 15.9 billion was recorded (a
year earlier, EUR 10.9 billion and EUR 13.0 billion respectively).
What had the biggest influence on Poland’s foreign trade exchange was electrical machinery products,
which in 2014 accounted for 39.7% of export and 36.7% in import. In 2014, the export of these products
increased by 8.0%, and import by 9.4%. The products of the chemical industry accounted for 13.9% of
the export and 17.5% of the import, whereas the agricultural and food products 13.2% of the export and
9.0% of the import. It is worth pointing out that the export of the latter, despite the Russian embargo
which resulted in a decrease in export to that market, increased by 7.1%, and the share of agricultural
and food products in the total export remained at the same level as in 2013.
In the first half of 2015, the export of goods reached the level of EUR 87.2 billion (6.7% increase),
whereas the import EUR 84.3 billion (1.9%). The results translated into the transformation of the trade
deficit of nearly EUR 1 billion recorded in 2014 into a EUR 2.9 billion surplus.
LABOUR MARKET. In 2014, the situation on the labour market slightly improved, although negative
trends were not overcome in any decisive way. The number of employed persons aged 15 and over
amounted to 15.9 million, while the number of employed persons aged 20-64 totalled 15.5 million.
During the said period, the employment rate indicating the number of employed persons aged 20-64 in
the overall population in this age group amounted to 66.5% (the target for Poland to be achieved by
2020 in accordance with the Europe 2020 strategy is 71%). In 2014, the employment rate in the EU
amounted to 69.2%. This rate in Poland is still one of the lowest in the European Union.
In Poland, similarly as in most EU countries, the level of employment of young persons poses a serious
problem. Only few countries may take pride in high employment rates in this age group - the rate for the
Netherlands and Malta is close to 70%. In 2014, only 24% of young Greeks and nearly 30% of persons
aged 20-24 in Spain and Italy, as well as more than 30% of such persons in Croatia, Bulgaria and
Luxembourg were employed. Poland, with its employment rate of 43.8% also negatively deviates
from the EU average. A distinct disproportion (more than 9 p.p.) between the figures for Poland and the
EU is also visible in the older age groups (for persons aged 55-64).
According to the registered unemployment statistics, 1,825 thousand persons remained unemployed as
at the end of 2014. The registered unemployment rate amounted to 11.5% and was 1.9 p.p. lower
compared to the previous year. As of the end of June 2015, the unemployment rate dropped to 10.3%.
Modernisation and restructuring processes in the Polish economy are conducive to changes in the
labour demand structure both on the national and local labour markets. Changes in the labour demand
structure require an appropriate adaptation of labour supply through the development of employee
qualifications and an increase in their mobility related to their willingness to work outside their current
place of residence.
There is a clear correlation between the level of education and the unemployment rate. Higher
education remains a factor which significantly decreases the risk of unemployment. Improving
vocational qualifications is not a common phenomenon in Poland. In the 2011–2013 period, only 4.5%
of all the unemployed indicated a lack of qualifications required by the employer as a (subjective)
reason for remaining without a job. There is a clear correlation between the intensity of the educational
process and age, educational attainment and place of residence. The number of people who raise their
qualifications decreases with their age. People who do raise their qualifications are usually holders of
university degrees or graduates of post-secondary schools. Almost half of those raising their
qualifications are people from cities with over 100,000 residents.
13
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
As a result of Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004 and a gradual opening of labour
markets by individual EU Member States, many Polish citizens decided to seek employment abroad.
This resulted in a significant increase in emigration in the first years after the accession. The results of
the 2011 National Census have confirmed the growth in the number of Poles staying abroad, observed
in the recent years. They indicated that 2 million permanent Polish residents stayed abroad for longer
than 3 months when the census was conducted. Women accounted for 51.1% of the emigrants. Among
all countries which have over the years been the main destinations for Polish emigrants, a significant
increase in the number of arriving Poles was recorded in Germany and the United Kingdom. Ireland, the
Netherlands and Norway are also popular destinations. Poles are the biggest minority in Norway. Shortterm economic migration more and more often constitutes an element of the life plan, and its natural
consequence is to settle in Poland again.
The migration phenomena also include an inflow of foreigners to Poland. So far, the number of
immigrants in Poland is insignificant. The 2011 National Census indicated that there are 56.3 thousand
permanent residents of other countries living in Poland. Foreigners account for only 0.2% of permanent
residents of Poland.
One of the reasons why foreigners immigrate to Poland is to take up employment. In 2014, over 43.6
thousand work permits for foreigners were issued in Poland. The most numerous group of recipients of
such permits were citizens of Ukraine (60.3%), Vietnam (5.4%), China (4.9%) and Belarus (4.2%). The
greatest number of foreigners took up employment in the construction industry, wholesale and retail
trade and in private households.
PRICES. In 2014, average annual prices of consumer goods and services remained unchanged
compared to prices in the previous year. Similarly as in the previous year, the level of prices was mainly
determined by a relatively high volatility of food and energy carrier prices on international markets. The
drop in food prices was the result of, inter alia, high yields of agricultural crops in the country, dropping
prices of agricultural raw materials on global markets and restricted export of agricultural and food
products to Russia due to the imposed embargo. As regards energy raw materials, their prices were
substantially affected by the significant drop in crude oil prices. The rate of price changes in 2014 was
slower than provided for in the assumptions to the Budget Act (2.4%) and slower than the inflation target
of the National Bank of Poland (2.5%).
The factors which had the most profound impact on the annual average Consumer Price Index in 2014
were the prices related to the upkeep of an apartment and prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco
products, which contributed respectively by +0.3 p.p. and +0.24 p.p. The prices of wearing apparel and
footwear, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and prices of goods and services related to
transport made the greatest impact in the opposite direction.
The annual average prices of industrial output sold in 2014 decreased by 1.5%, while in 2013 the same
prices decreased by 1.3%. The biggest drop in prices was recorded in mining and quarrying. Prices also
fell in manufacturing. The average annual prices of construction and assembly output decreased in
2014 by 1.2% (in 2013 the decrease was 1.8%).
In the first half of 2015, prices of consumer goods and services dropped by 1.2%. Whereas in the
January-May period the downward tendency was continued regarding the industrial output sold (2.6%
drop) as well as construction and assembly output (0.4% drop).
14
MONETARY POLICY. In its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2014, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC)
listed external factors with the biggest potential impact on the volatility of prices in the Polish economy
and on the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), among which are uncertain
perspectives for economic growth in the world (in particular in the eurozone) and strongly expansive
monetary policy of the main central banks leading to an increase in the volatility of asset prices and
exchange rates. As regards endogenous factors, in the context of inflation processes, the MPC pointed
towards the following factors: economic activity in Poland, situation on the labour market, fiscal policy
and the increase in bank lending. The main objective set forth in the Monetary Policy Guidelines for
2014 was to keep inflation close to the mid-term inflation target (2.5%). In connection with a stronger
than expected decline in inflation in the second half of the year, to a level below the inflation target, in
November 2012 the MPC lowered interest rates (except for the deposit rate) and narrowed the interest
rate corridor to 2 p.p. As a result, the reference rate was lowered by 0.5 p.p. and amounted to 2.0% as
at the end of the year.
PUBLIC FINANCE. Persistent high deficit in the public finance sector slows down capital accumulation
and diminishes the pace of potential GDP growth; this is because such a high level of deficit has a
negative impact on national savings, increases the national risk premium, raises the costs of capital and
results in the need of servicing an ever-increasing debt. Public finance discipline is the key element of
macroeconomic stability and of the credibility of the state itself; the latter is particularly important in the
present period of turbulence on financial markets and the accompanying uncertainty combined with the
risk of sudden capital flows.
The performance of the public finance sector is largely dependent on economic fluctuations. As a rule,
during a period of rapid economic growth the income from taxes grows dynamically and some
categories of public expenditure decrease due to the improved economic situation of the population.
Similarly, during an economic slowdown tax revenues fall, while some categories of public expenditure
rise. These phenomena could be observed in Poland in recent years.
On 24th of January 2014, the Polish Sejm enacted the Budget Act for 2014. The acceptable level of
state budget deficit was determined to be no more than PLN 47.5 billion. The actual state budget deficit
at the end of 2014 was lower than initially assumed and amounted to PLN 29.0 billion.
The state budget revenue amounted to PLN 283.5 billion. In comparison to 2013, the revenue increased
by PLN 4.3 billion. The state budget revenue-to-GDP ratio in 2014 decreased to 16.4%. The Budget Act
for 2014 provided for state budget expenditure of PLN 325.3 billion. The state budget expenditure
realised in 2014 were PLN 12.8 billion, i.e. 3.9%, lower than anticipated. In comparison to 2013,
expenditure was PLN 8.8 billion lower. In 2014, the state budget expenditure-to-GDP ratio amounted to
18.1%.
The current structure of budget expenditure, for many years characterised by the dominance of fixed
expenditure, limits the possibilities of the government to determine the level of budget deficit. Statutory
provisions and earlier legal commitments require that the following categories of fixed expenditures be
realized: public debt servicing, subsidies to local government units, and support for the institutions
tasked with the administration of special-purpose funds. In the last year, an improvement was observed
with regard to the determination of the structure of state budget expenditure, and the share of fixed
expenditure decreased, which may be indicative of a trend to increase the flexibility of public spending.
Their share in total expenditure in 2014 amounted to 72.7% and was 1.7% lower than in 2013.
15
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
As at the end of May 2015, the state budget revenue amounted to PLN 116.3 billion, which accounts for
39.1% of the annual revenue adopted in the Budget Act for 2015. The spending is slightly higher and
accounts for 39.6% (PLN 135.9 billion). The budget deficit after the first five months was PLN 19.6
billion, i.e. 42.6% of the deficit adopted in the Budget Act for 2015 (PLN 46.1 billion).
Improving the condition of public finance and maintaining it at a safe level is a major challenge for the
current economic policy of Poland. The key objective is to cut the public finance sector spending,
reduce its deficit and maintain it at a desirably low level. Long-lasting budget deficit increases public
debt and has a negative effect on the country's economic situation.
For the above reason, the permanent, significant deficit in the Polish public finance sector was a
disturbing phenomenon. At the end of 2014, the general government deficit decreased to the level of
PLN 55.2 billion, i.e. 3.2% of GDP. At the end of 2014, the general government deficit decreased to the
level of PLN 866.5 billion, i.e. 50.1% of GDP, but it was, however, a result of a non-recurring event
consisting in the cancelling of treasury securities in February 2014 as part of the retirement pension
system reform. According to the forecasts for 2015 adopted by the Ministry of Finance, the general
government deficit and debt will amount to -2.7% and 51.7% of GDP, respectively.
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY. An important condition for the economic growth is
development of the private sector. It takes place through consistent implementation of privatisation
processes which effectively contribute to an increase in investment, improvement of the entities’
financial standing, optimisation of manufacturing processes and obtaining a lasting ability to compete on
the global market, as well as influence the balance of the state budget.
The economic situation both in Poland and its foreign partners has a significant influence on the
effectiveness with which privatisation processes are conducted, because it directly affects the level of
potential investors’ interest in the privatisation offer. The effective performance of privatisation
processes is also influenced by the situation on capital markets, which reflects the condition of the
economy, indicates the current sentiment among investors, and is the place where the responses to
changes in the economic situation are both the most rapid and readily apparent.
In Poland, privatisation processes have been carried out since the beginning of the transformation
period. Until the end of 2014, 6,002 state enterprises were subject to ownership transformation. Most
enterprises underwent ownership transformation in the initial transformation period (3,619 enterprises in
the years 1990-1995 and 1,597 in the years 1996-2000). Since 2000, nearly 87% of all entities have
been subjected to ownership transformation processes. In 2014, 2 enterprises underwent ownership
transformation.
From the beginning of the transformation period through 2014, revenues from privatisation exceeded
PLN 150 billion. The highest revenues were generated in the 1996-2000 and 2006-2010 periods,
accounting for approx. 38% and approx. 22% of total privatisation revenues, respectively. The planned
privatisation revenues for 2014 amounted to PLN 3.7 billion. The actual revenues amounted to PLN 1.0
billion, i.e. 27.1% of the planned revenues. The privatisation revenues in 2015 were estimated at PLN
1.2 billion.
16
ENTREPRENEURSHIP. Entrepreneurship enables achieving effectiveness which allows enterprises to
operate on an ongoing basis, and creates conditions for their development. It is determined by various
conditions of the business environment, such as legal regulation, tax system, costs of labour, road and
telecommunications infrastructure, as well as financial and judiciary system.
Regulatory environment remains one of the key factors hampering the growth of entrepreneurship in
Poland. Too complicated and obscure law is mentioned in public polls as a barrier to starting up and
running a business. If one manages to wade through formalities, it turns out that the law frequently
imposes excessive obligations on the entrepreneurs, causing them to incur unjustified costs – such a
state of affairs is still a common experience among many entrepreneurs. By their very nature,
enterprises are not prepared for regulatory risks, therefore they perceive frequent legal changes as
actions aimed against them. For the above reason, legislative initiatives should respond to their
expectations, whereas transparency and uniformity of regulations should eliminate any doubts as to the
interpretation of the law so that enterprises can operate on the basis of clear and comprehensible legal
standards.
In 2014 and in the beginning of 2015 activities were continued in the area of improving the regulatory
environment and the institutional environment of business. The activities are part of the “2015 Better
Regulations” programme adopted by the Council of Ministers on 22nd of January 2013, the main
objective of which is to provide systemic and organisational solutions necessary for the creation and
evaluation of the law based on evidence, in particular to reduce costs of running a business activity and
increase competitiveness of Polish economy. They predominantly focused on economic law review in
respect of the most burdensome regulations constituting major barriers to the development of the
entrepreneurship and to the implementation of relevant legal regulations facilitating business activity.
Between 2011 and 2014 four deregulatory initiatives were carried out, as part of which 300
amendments to over 100 acts were made, and financial benefits for economy arising out of the solutions
implemented may reach the level of several billions of Polish zlotys, in particular in the form of savings
from the reduction of red tape. The solutions implemented address specific barriers to business activity
identified in practice.
Under the first of the deregulatory initiatives (the Act of 25 th of March 2011 on limiting the administrative
barriers for citizens and entrepreneurs) a number of changes have been introduced, including, inter alia,
the option for citizens and entrepreneurs to submit declarations in lieu of the previously required
certificates (the principle requiring state institutions to put their trust in citizens and the principle requiring
administrative authorities to obtain as much information as possible on their own, from other authorities)
as well as consumer leasing, i.e. the possibility of entering into leasing agreements with individuals who
do not pursue business activities.
Under the second initiative (the Act of 16th of September 2011 on the reduction of certain obligations of
citizens and entrepreneurs), certain disclosure requirements imposed upon entrepreneurs have been
abolished, allowing for a decrease in the costs of business activities.
The third initiative (the Act of 16th of November 2012 on the restriction of certain administrative
obligations in the economy) resulted in the introduction of solutions aimed at improving the financial
liquidity of enterprises, the abolition of certain administrative obligations (disclosure requirements) as
well as the simplification of the regulatory environment.
The next, fourth initiative (the Act of 7th of November 2014 on facilitating business activity) comprised,
among other things, the so-called “Port Package” supporting the competitiveness of Polish ports
17
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
through the extension of deadlines for VAT payments in the case of import by Authorized Economic
Operators (AEO) and shortening the time for border control in seaports to 24 h; it also provided
entrepreneurs with easier access to financing by creating wider opportunities to obtain guarantees of
the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management and provincial funds by
entrepreneurs, excise tax reliefs (e.g. by reducing tax burden in the case of trading in fuel oils) and
exemptions for employees from income tax on transport to work by means of public transport arranged
by the employer – fewer administrative obligations, easier tax settlement.
Another important step towards a better regulatory environment is the draft of Business Activity Law Act
which was adopted by the Council of Ministers on 12 th of May 2015. The Business Activity Law will
replace the Act of 2004 on Freedom of Business Activity and will strengthen rights of entrepreneurs.
The act will highlight and systematize basic principles for running a business activity, constituting a
catalogue of fundamental rights of entrepreneurs. Moreover, the act will determine specific rules for
administration authorities operating in the area of economy. The legislative amendments proposed are
expected to modernise legal framework of business activity in Poland. It is proposed to provide a
structure the regulations by sharing the main act of economic law as a catalogue of rights and legal
institutions together with the introduction of specific solutions.
Apart from the above-mentioned regulations, other actions aimed at improvement of enterprises’
regulatory environment are conducted at a large scale.
INNOVATIVENESS. When compared to the Member States of the European Union, innovativeness of
Polish economy is still low. According to the most recent report Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015,
reaching a synthetic innovation result at level of 0.313 Poland is among countries depicted as moderate
innovators. It was classified on the 24th place in the ranking, i.e. one position higher in comparison to the
ranking from the previous year, ahead of Romania (0.204), Bulgaria (0.229), Latvia (0.272) and
Lithuania (0.283). However, changes in this year’s ranking result not only from changes of innovation
activity of various countries but also from changes in measurement methodology, hence their
comparability is limited.
Expenditures incurred for innovative activity, especially expenditure on R&D, which constitute a sine qua
non condition of technological progress and emergence of radical innovation, are one of the indicators
most commonly used in the assessment of the economic innovativeness. Although Poland is constantly
increasing the expenditures for this purpose, its indicator of R&D intensity is still low. In 2013, the value
of intramural expenditures on research and development (GERD) amounted to over PLN 14 billion,
which constituted 0.87% of GDP. The level of this indicator was twice lower than the goal adopted in the
Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the Economy (1.7% in 2020). This was one of the lowest
results recorded in EU-28 countries. There was a particularly big distance between Poland and leaders
of innovation, such as the Scandinavian countries (on average 3.2%), Germany (2.85%) and Austria
(2.81%); it has also a lot to catch up with respect to some of the new Member States (the Czech
Republic - 1.91%, Hungary - 1.41%).
The change in the structure of R&D expenditures by sectors of performance is a positive trend observed
for the last few years. In 2013, almost 44% of all expenditures accounted for business enterprise sector,
whereas in 2004 this share did not exceed 30%.
Expenditures of the enterprises on innovative activity amounted to approx. PLN 30 billion and in 2013
they were lower by 15% when compared to the previous year, mainly due to decrease in expenses of
enterprises operating in the services sector. As before, the main finance source for innovative activity
18
were own funds of the enterprises which constituted 75% of total expenditures. The next sources were
bank loans, funds obtained from abroad (EU funds) and funds from the state budget.
In order to increase innovativeness level of Polish economy, it is necessary to enhance the cooperation
of enterprises from SME sector, cooperation and cluster relations as well as to raise awareness of
entrepreneurs in the field of industrial property protection and its benefits. It is also necessary to
implement joint projects leading to increased cooperation between various participants in the innovation
system. Innovative police measures provided for in the Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the
Economy, in particular those aimed at stimulating cooperation in the R&D field both between enterprises
as well as enterprises and science sector will have to serve to meet these challenges.
ENTERPRISES’ FINANCIAL RESULTS. In 2014, an increase in revenue and financial results was
recorded. Total operating revenues of enterprises increased by 2.7% and the income generating costs
by 2.8%. The result on business activity amounted to PLN 136.1 billion and was 1.6% higher compared
to the one achieved in the previous year. The increase in the revenues applied to sales and financial
activity. What determined the increase in the result on business activity was only the core activity
(sales). In the case of the other types of enterprises activity, the results were at a lower level than a year
earlier. There was an increase in the gross and net financial results, up to PLN 136.3 billion (by 1.6%)
and up to PLN 115.0 billion (by 0.2%) respectively. Gross profit ratio was identical as a year earlier
(4.6%), whereas the net profit ratio lowered from 3.9% to 3.8%. Return on sales increased from 4.4% to
4.7%.
As at the end of 2014, debt of enterprises amounted to PLN 1,087.2 billion, (growth of 7.8% ). The
existing debt structure has improved and the share of long-term debt grew from 34.4% to 38.2%. The
potential possibilities to repay the debt with sales revenues decreased because the revenue growth rate
(2.7%) lagged behind the debt growth rate (7.8%). In 2013, the debt could have been repaid with sales
revenues made in 129.2 days. In 2014, it would have been 135.5 days.
An improvement in enterprises’ financial liquidity was recorded. All financial liquidity ratios increased: 1st
degree ratio from 38% to 42%, 2nd degree ratio from 102% to 108%, and 3rd degree ratio from 145% to
152%. Financial liquidity ratios exceeded the bottom-line of the recommended bracket.
CHALLENGES. After the crisis 2008-2009, which was stormy for the economy, and a short-term
recovery of its potential the following years brought new challenges. To the significant extent, they
were determined by the nature of the economic policy in the years 2010-2011, which was focused on
stimulation of the economic growth by an expenditure stimulus, which involved the risk of disturbing the
balance of public finances. Consequently, what was still one of the main factors shaping the level of
the global economic activity in the years 2013-2014 was the risk on the unsolved fiscal problems
in the eurozone. Their existence and deepening could result in consequences for the whole global
economy which were difficult to predict, but very painful from the economic point of view.
The negative phenomena which the global economy experienced over the last years proved less
serious in the case of Poland than the initial forecasts indicated. This was thanks to a few factors
extremely important for the stable operation of the economy, sources of which should be looked for in
the changes introduced over the whole past 25 years. They have led to creating a structure which
enables sustaining the increase in the added value in the economy based on elements which determine
achieving an ever stronger competitive position, i.e. deep and receptive domestic market, central
location in Europe, very well-educated work force or a very important factor - which mitigates the
investment risk - i.e. compliance with international standards and rule of law. In the most acute phase of
19
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
the crisis (2009–2012), the Polish economy was able to benefit from the simultaneous presence of
structural factors as well as those related to the business cycle.
The good results are the effect of the right reactions of all market participants: enterprises, households
and public authorities, which skilfully took advantage of their ability to act and their resources, adapting
to the conditions created by the environment. First of all, before the crisis the economy was balanced,
i.e. it demonstrated an economic growth which covered all sectors (the supply side) and categories of
costs (the demand side). In addition, in the economy there were no significant imbalances from the past
- the debt of households and companies, that is of the private sector, and of the public sector was lower
than in other countries from our region. Also the external debt of our economy was lower as compared
to that of the other countries. Such different conditions helped achieve the economic growth, and
determined actions in the face of the financial crisis. The fact that the sources of the crisis were outside
our economy led to the situation in which the economic policy was focused on battling its consequences
for our economy.
The relatively good results of the Polish economy in the whole 2008-2012 period, as compared to
the other EU countries do not mean, however, that the economic crisis remained an external
phenomenon which did not affect the consumers’ and entrepreneurs’ behaviour in Poland. In
addition, its influence focused the authorities’ actions on fiscal consolidation. Balanced public finance is
an indispensable condition for the macroeconomic stability and, consequently, long-term economic
growth. An improvement of ratios in this respect would also enable lifting the excessive deficit procedure
in Poland, which also limits the ability to take on new initiatives generating additional public expenses.
The fact that the excessive deficit procedure has been recently lifted from Poland gives grounds for
optimism as to certain flexibility in financing of necessary undertakings. It does not mean, however, that
we have a large margin of funds which can be spent. The end of the excessive deficit procedure against
Poland is accompanied by recommendations on pursuing a responsible public finance policy, aimed at
achieving medium-term budget targets.
Consequently, due to the current situation the challenge of simultaneous implementation of the
vision of development based on eliminating the largest development barriers which is
increasingly based on education, digitisation and innovativeness is very complex in the context of
the policy to balance the public finance. The challenges are even bigger, because after the phase of the
global economic crisis we did not experience a period of visible recovery, which would enable rational
implementation of costly but necessary structural reforms. The prolonged, believed by many to be a
“persistent”, economic slowdown, does not guarantee appropriate demand and economic growth which
could ensure adequate financing of investment projects and structural changes. We keep noticing weak
economic situation in the surroundings of the Polish economy, we have just started testing new,
unconventional methods of economic governance, and problems of certain economies are still
unsolved, which, in consequence, may affect the condition of the European or global economy.
Furthermore, we need to take into account the fact that the reaction to the current problems is
insufficient, and we must face and prepare for challenges identified in the long term. The simple
reserves resulting from the transformation of the effectiveness with which resources are used have
already been exhausted. We have entered a period of decreasing growth of labour resources and the
growing number of birth cohorts at the post-production age, and economic entities use their fixed assets
better and better. The inflow of foreign capital, which involves the transfer of new technologies, needs to
be perceived as support rather than the only instrument to eliminate or finance the Polish economy. On
the other hand, the structural funds, which upon the accession to the EU guaranteed support of the
development of broadly-understood infrastructure, and currently are channelled to building the potential
of the modern economy, cannot be treated as a simple and inexhaustible source of financing.
20
With respect to the challenges connected with the globalisation, what needs to be pointed out in the
first place is the more intensive competition from dynamically developing emerging economies (mainly
China) and in connection with development of the e-economy, as well as with the expected conclusion
of the partnership agreement between the EU and USA (TTIP). Finally, the growing expectations
regarding the need to prevent and adapt to the climate change become more widespread - the
expectations which are particularly burdensome for the Polish economy due to its energy mix.
The engine of the necessary changes is the Polish enterprises sector itself. It should look for other
sources of competitiveness than just those related to cost and price. During preparation of their
development strategy, they should take into account the fact that in the long term keeping the low
remuneration level is at odds with society’s expectations to increase income, thus slowing down the
economic growth, and, consequently, the prospects of their own development. In addition, in connection
with the globalisation, they are at risk of facing new competition from new countries which have cheaper
labour. For this reason, they should base their development on increased productivity. Apart from simply
increasing outlays on labour’s technical equipment based on technologies developed elsewhere,
enterprises have to look for an opportunity to be competitive in increased innovativeness, openness to
other countries, but also the domestic environment (in the value creation chain with cooperating entities,
clients and even competitors). It is crucial to create creating at enterprises a competence enabling them
to create their own new solutions and look for unused market niches which will help them take a more
favourable place in the value creation chain.
The Poland’s Mid-term Development Strategy adopted by the Council of Ministers in September 2012
formulates the government’s main target in the medium term as strengthening and taking advantage
of the economic, social and institutional potentials which ensure the country’s faster and
sustainable growth and improvement in the population’s quality of life. The strategy indicates
three strategic areas on which the main actions should focus, in order to accelerate development
processes: Effective and efficient state, Competitive economy and Social and territorial cohesion.
The strategy for using EU funds in the 2014-2020 perspective, aimed at increasing the economy’s
competitiveness, is focused on supporting pro-innovation and pro-employment actions in the economy.
In comparison to the 2007-2013 period, more EU funds will be channelled pro-innovation activities. The
key purpose is an improvement in the quality of research and strengthening cooperation between the
scientific sector and the economy. The support covers actions aimed at creating own innovative
solutions – starting from soft actions connected with development of the skills of scientific personnel and
enterprises in the R&D area and innovative process management, to support for research and
implementation of solutions in the economy. The support will be provided to those fields which may
constitute the country’s or its regions’ competitive advantage (smart specialisations).
Apart from initiatives which are taken on a short-term basis, what is particularly important is long-term
actions aimed at increasing the economic potential, i.e. those which stimulate the labour supply, e.g. by
means of extension of the professional activity period or those whose aim is to enable women to return
to work (day care centres). Actions in the area of the structural policy, in particular those which stimulate
the productiveness of the Polish economy, serve the same purpose.
In the medium term, there is a need for further intensive development of the transport,
telecommunications and energy infrastructure, as well as stimulation enhancing to the extent to which it
is used (e.g. as regards public e-services or supporting individual generation of electricity). Such actions
will be carried out in this decade mainly thanks to EU funds.
21
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The appropriate way of using the EU funds is the precondition for Poland to become independent of
them after 2022. It is necessary, among other things, to streamline the distribution of funds through the
entities with well-tested institutional effectiveness in this respect, increase the significance of repayable
instruments, and raise the level of risk accepted by intermediate bodies and managing authorities.
Enabling Poland to develop modern sectors should be the guideline for the state’s economic policy as
well as regulatory and organisational actions, in particular with respect to such areas, as: regulation of
the goods and services markets, appropriate orientation of the system which supports investment
(including foreign one), business environment focused on boosting the strength of local entrepreneurs,
decreasing the bureaucratic burden, investing in research and development, linking science with
business, quality of scientific research and higher education.
The government, through numerous integrated strategies, pursues the policy oriented on ensuring
favourable conditions for development of entrepreneurship and the country’s economic growth potential.
The main aim of these actions is to improve entrepreneurs’ access to capital, creating entrepreneurial
attitudes, institutional, organisational and financial strengthening of the environment in which they
operate, as well as filling the information gap and preventing negative consequences of the
demographic changes projected on the balance of the individual sectors of the Polish economy. The
anticipated effect of the actions in question will be an improvement in productiveness and better access
to the available resources of these factors, which, in consequence, will help achieve a higher level of the
economic development and raise the citizens’ average living standard.
In order to keep high economic activity, actions planned in the Human Capital Development Strategy
are taken, focused on a more effective use of the labour factor. In response to employers’ and
employee’s needs, changes have been introduced to the Labour Code which allow introducing flexible
working time and extension of the working time settlement period to 12 months. Using flexible working
time should contribute to higher effectiveness of the human resources involved in economic processes.
One of the government structural actions aimed at improvement of the conditions in which enterprises
operate is Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the Economy, implementation of which will
contribute to construction of a more and more knowledge-based economy. Realisation of the actions
planned in this strategy will create favourable conditions for boosting the economy’s innovativeness and
competitiveness understood as the long-term ability to face external competition.
Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the Economy and Enterprises Development Programme, being
an executive document, cover both elimination of barriers and creation of a friendly environment for
entrepreneurs, as well as active actions for growth of their innovativeness and competitiveness. The
instruments focus on creating a more friendly environment for the business, strengthening various forms
of R&D and innovation financing, raising the quality of human capital for innovativeness, strengthening
cooperation between entrepreneurs and the world of science and entrepreneurs themselves, eeconomy as well as sustainable development. Among the key proposed instruments there are: grants
for R&D, R&D&I support instruments, repayable instruments for purchase of new technologies,
machinery and devices, venture capital funds, support for intellectual property rights, educational
voucher for the entrepreneur, closer cooperation between enterprises and universities and vocational
schools, strengthening Business Environment Institutions, strengthening and development of clusters,
support for creating and implementing environmental technologies, support for enterprises on global
markets (promotion + financial instruments).
What will also serve the improvement of the business environment is implementation of Digital Poland
for the years 2014-2020 Operational Programme. The programme, which is consistent with the goals of
22
the European Digital Agenda, in particular provides a support for creating broadband networks and
development of public e-services at the central level.
What becomes crucial is actions in the area of improving the regulatory environment and the
institutional environment of business, in order to ensure stable and development-friendly
conditions in which entrepreneurs operate. They must be of comprehensive nature, so they will
cover both the activities aimed at the improvement of the law-making system itself, including in favour of
dialogue with entrepreneurs, as well as legislative (deregulational) activities introducing specific facilities
and simplifications in legal acts regulating conditions of business activity in Poland, as well as actions
aimed at improving the legislative system itself, including for the dialogue with entrepreneurs in this
process. What is the response to these challenges is, among other things, the deregulation acts
prepared over the last years on the initiative of the Ministry of Economy. The legislative measures focus
on three pillars:
 Improvement of financial liquidity of enterprises – which is particularly important in the current
situation, when the economic slowdown persists;
 Limitation of disclosure obligations;
 Corporate social responsibility and efficient administration.
As part of creating new or correcting the existing economic policy mechanisms, an important aspect is
the approach to the industrial policy. The industry has a significant influence on the Polish economy,
but the extent of the industry’s technological and product innovativeness is still below the EU average,
and is accompanied by low utilisation of the domestic scientific resources. The new financial perspective
creates possibilities for changing this status quo, with simultaneous involvement of entrepreneurs and
scientists, and orientation of the changes on sustainable development, with particular consideration
given to improvement of energy efficiency.
The industrial policy should be aimed, as was outlined in Industrial policy priorities 2015-2020+, to
ensure sustainable development of the Polish industry on the basis of the most complete and effective
use of domestic resources, targeted at making use of comparative advantages and counterweights built
on the basis of an increase in the value of human capital and innovativeness of the economy. The
implementation of the industrial policy’s goal will take place, among other things, through: boosting
investment projects which strengthen the potential of innovativeness and creativity, increasing
effectiveness of the enterprises’ operation, creating new and valuable jobs in the industry and its
environment, expansion on foreign markets, increasing effectiveness with which access to the EU
market and to third countries is used, creating a stable legislative and fiscal environment in which
enterprises operate, creating an effective vocational education system.
A necessary condition for sustainable development of the Polish industry is to keep cohesion between
all policies formulated at the EU forum and the industrial policy, with particular consideration given to the
energy and climate policy. It is also necessary to influence the way EU policies are shaped in terms of
the development priorities of the Polish economy and conditions in which it operates in the global
competitive environment.
Appropriate operation of the economy as well as safety and society’s living standard also depend on
stable supply of fuel and energy. The project called Poland’s energy Policy until 2050, which is currently
subject to consultations, defines the main goal as creating conditions for permanent and sustainable
development of the energy sector contributing to the development of the national economy, ensuring the
country’s energy security and satisfaction of entrepreneur’s and households’ energy needs. Its
implementation is expected to take place through actions which contribute to issues mentioned above,
bigger competitiveness and energy efficiency of the national economy as part of the internal EU energy
23
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
market, at the same time accompanied by limited influence of the energy sector on the environment.
The manner of operation in this area is consistent with the framework set out by the European Energy
Security Strategy, which indicates the following as challenges for the whole EU: strengthening response
and solidarity mechanisms in crisis situation, reducing the demand for energy, building a wellfunctioning and fully integrated internal market, further development of energy technologies, as well as
diversification of external supply and the infrastructure connected with it.
The Polish economy also faces a serious challenge in the form of changes in the demographic
structure. In accordance with demographic forecasts, Poland will experience a decrease in working-age
population. This phenomenon is so strong that even an improvement in the professional activity ratios
may be insufficient to prevent the drop in the labour supply. The decreasing labour supply will constitute
a serious barrier for the potential growth of the Polish economy. In order to minimise the negative
consequences for the economy resulting from the decreasing labour supply, the government has taken
actions which consist, among other things, in limiting the possibility of earlier retirement and gradual
extension of the retirement age for men and women. The results of this actions will, to the biggest
extent, affect the 45+ age group, where the employment activity rates have been much lower up to now
than on average in developed economies. It is expected that the changes introduced will lead to an
increase in employment activity among persons aged 45+ (such an increase may already be noticed in
the current data on employment activity in Poland). What will be an additional stimulus for this age
group to remain on the labour market is the growing percentage of people whose retirement benefits will
be paid out from the defined contribution system. The resulting drop in the replacement rate
(relationship between the pension awarded to the last salary) will motivate older generations to retire
later.
In the context of the shrinking labour resources, the Polish economy and society need to prepare also
for admitting a much bigger migration flow than so far, in order to satisfy demand for work and, at the
same time, minimise the structural mismatch of the labour market and the risk of social problems
connected with it.
Due to the nature of long-term actions, their effects are put off in time and visible in the longer
perspective, but the advantage of focusing the attention on structural reforms is that they influence the
long-term (potential) economic growth rate, at the same time boosting the economy’s resilience to
external disturbances. Long-term actions are consistent with Europe 2020 strategy and are aimed at
improving competitiveness and employment rate in economies, e.g. thanks to an increase in
innovativeness and human capital.
Should we fail to give a new modernisation stimulus to the Polish economy, not only will it be impossible
to reduce the distance to the leading economies, but also we will risk a deterioration of the position we
have achieved to date. First of all, without such a modernisation and change of the model of building the
economy’s competitiveness it will be impossible to bring the salary level in Poland to the EU average,
which will deepen the erosion of the labour resources (including, in particular, those with high
qualifications) due to emigration. In view of the aging society, it will have particularly painful
consequences for the public finance and social balance. Secondly, only a dynamically developing
economy will be able to carry the burden and minimise the cost of inevitable processes of the
economy’s adaptation to the climate change. Thirdly, only a new, internal modernisation stimulus will
enable us to move smoothly, without a growth slowdown, to a stage at which the Polish economy will no
longer be able to expect such significant support from the EU funds.
24
Identifying long- and medium-term challenges, we must not forget about the short-term ones which we
face. One of them is definitely the Ukraine-Russia conflict, decisions of the EU and US authorities (and
other countries) taken in connection with it, as well as Russia’s response and consequences for the
Polish and EU economy. The instability of the situation and the risk of its deterioration affect the
conditions in which the individual industries and the whole economy operate. So far, the direct
consequences of the slowdown of the Russian economy, recession in Ukraine and, finally, the Russian
embargo on Polish food have been felt by enterprises which are active on those markets (dairy industry,
fruit farming, meat industry). It is, at the same time, worth emphasising that numerous entrepreneurs
have dealt with the difficult situation and found new markets or different forms of cooperation.
Irrespective of the duration of the embargo and any further restrictions in the international trade, it needs
to be pointed out that Polish exporters who, due to the short-term needs, were forced to take additional
actions and correct their plans, at the same time may get an opportunity to redefine their long-term
action and development strategy for good. Paradoxically, the current search for alternative markets
“under duress” and expansion of the export activity on other foreign markets may lead to a more rational
structure of recipients of our exports in the future. The events which took place in the last half or the
year demonstrated that the level of the political and institutional risk connected with operation on the
markets of our eastern neighbours is relatively high.
25
Table 1 Main indicators of economic situation in years 2005-2014 (dynamics, previous year = 100)
No.
1.
2.
3.
3.1
3.2
4.
5.
6.
6.1
7.
8.
9.
10.
10.1
11.
11.1
12.
12.1
13.
13.1
Specification
Gross domestic product (current
prices)
Gross domestic product (constant
prices)
Domestic demand (constant prices)
Individual consumption from
personal income (constant prices)
Gross fixed capital formation
(constant prices)
Sold output of industry
Prices of sold output of industry
(annual average)
Prices of consumer goods and
services (annual average)
Prices of consumer goods and
services (dynamics December to
December)
Construction and assembly output
Number of completed dwellings
Investment outlays – total (constant
prices)
Gross turnover profit ratio*
- including industry*
Net turnover profit ratio*
- including industry*
Exports of goods (acc. to SAD and
from V.2004 r. acc. to SAD and
INTRASTAT)
Dynamics (previous year = 100)
Import of goods (according to SAD
and from V.2004 r. acc. to SAD and
INTRASTAT)
Dynamics (previous year = 100)
Measurement
unit
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PLN billion
984.9
1,065.2
1,186.8
1,277.3
1,361.9
1,437.4
1,553.6
1,615.9
1,662.7
1,728.7
%
103.5
106.2
107.2
103.9
102.6
103.7
104.8
101.8
101.7
103.4
%
102.4
107.2
109.5
105.0
99.7
104.2
103.8
99.6
100.4
104.9
%
102.3
104.6
106.4
106.1
103.3
102.5
103.0
101.0
101.2
103.1
%
108.7
113.3
119.2
108.4
98.1
99.6
109.3
98.5
101.1
109.2
PLN billion
%
687.8
n. a.
775.5
111.6
873.5
110.7
918.3
103.6
896.4
95.5
985.7
109.0
1,137.4
107.5
1,178.3
100.5
1,183.0
101.8
1,230.3
103.1
%
n. a.
102.0
102.0
102.2
103.4
102.1
107.6
103.3
98.7
98.5
%
102.1
101.0
102.5
104.2
103.5
102.6
104.3
103.7
100.9
100.0
%
100.7
101.4
104.0
103.3
103.5
103.1
104.6
102.4
100.7
99.0
PLN billion
%
thousand
91.3
n. a.
114.1
107.3
113.0
115.4
135.7
117.0
133.7
154.6
109.9
165.2
163.6
105.9
160.0
170.2
104.4
135.8
191.3
111.0
131.0
177.4
92.7
152.9
167.0
94.4
145.1
n. a.
103.0
143.2
%
107.7
116.8
120.4
110.7
99.2
100.2
110.6
97.2
98.8
108.7
%
%
%
%
4.9
6.0
3.9
4.8
5.8
6.7
4.7
5.4
6.1
7.0
5.0
5.9
4.2
4.4
3.3
3.5
5.0
5.8
4.1
4.8
5.3
6.5
4.4
5.5
5.4
7.3
4.5
6.1
4.2
5.6
3.4
4.7
4.5
5.8
3.8
5.0
4.3
5.4
3.7
4.6
EUR million
%
EUR million
%
71,423.5
119.6
87,925.9 101,838.7 116,243.8
123.1
115.8
114.1
98,218.0 120,373.1 136,693.9 143,456.1 154,994.0 165,677.6
84.5
122.6
113.6
104.9
108.0
107.0
81,156.0 100,784.1 120,389.5 142,447.9 107,528.9 134,188.4 152,568.4 154,040.2 156,978.0 168,423.3
113.8
124.2
119.5
118.3
75.5
124.8
113.7
101.0
101.9
107.3
No.
14.
15.
Specification
Goods turnover balance
Current** account balance of the
balance of payments
15.1 - as percentage of GDP
16. Employed persons in national
economy (annual average)
16.1 Dynamics (previous year = 100)
17. Average employment in the
economy
Measurement
unit
EUR million
2005
2006
2007
2008
-9,775.1 -12,858.2 -18,550.8 -26,204.1
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-9,310.9 -13,815.3 -15,874.5 -10,584.1
-1,984.0
-2,658.7
EUR million
-6,276
-10,857
-19,616
-23,760
-12,244
-19,802
-18,827
-13,184
-5,151
-5,261
%
thousands of
people
%
thousands of
people
%
thousands of
people
%
-2.6
-4.0
-6.2
-6.5
-3.9
-5.6
-5.2
-3.5
-1.3
-1.4
12,728
12,880
13,334
13,881
13,769
13,834
13,946
13,899
13,735
13,827
100.9
101.2
103.5
104.1
99.2
100.5
100.8
99.7
98.8
100.7
8,787
8,966
9,388
9,851
9,768
9,746
9,802
9,720
9,566
9,659
101.7
102.0
104.7
104.9
99.2
99.8
100.6
Number of registered unemployed
2,773.0
2,309.4
1,746.6
1,473.8
1,892.7
1,954.7
1,982.7
(at the end of the period)
92.4
83.3
75.6
84.4
128.4
103.3
101.4
19. Registered unemployment rate (at
%
17.6
14.8
11.2
9.5
12.1
12.4
12.5
the end of the year)
20. Average nominal gross monthly
PLN
2,360.6
2,475.9
2,672.6
2,942.2
3,101.7
3,224.1
3,403.5
wages in the national economy
20.1 - in the enterprise sector
PLN
2,515.7
2,643.8
2,889.1
3,185.8
3,324.9
3,434.6
3,604.7
21. Average real gross monthly wages
%
101.8
104.0
105.5
105.9
102.0
101.4
101.4
in the national economy
21.1 - in the enterprise sector
%
101.2
104.2
106.8
106.1
101.1
100.8
100.9
22. Work efficiency dynamics (as gross
added value per one employee)
%
102.5
106.0
103.7
99.7
103.7
103.3
103.9
(previous year = 100)
23. State budget balance
PLN million
-28,361
-25,063
-15,956
-24,346
-23,845
-44,591
-25,124
23.1 - as percentage of GDP
%
-2.9
-2.4
-1.3
-1.9
-1.8
-3.1
-1.6
* Gross and net turnover profit ratios in the economy and in the industry are regarding entities employing more than 49 people.
** Data by BMP6 to the year 2009. source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), since 2010r. source: monthly National Bank of Poland (NBP) data.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and National Bank of Poland (NBP), as well as calculations of the Department of Strategy and Analyses.
99.2
98.4
101.0
2,136.8
2,157.9
1,825.2
107.8
101.0
84.6
13.4
13.4
11.5
3,530.5
3,659.4
3,783.5
3,728.4
3,837.2
3,980.2
100.1
102.8
103.4
99.8
102.0
103.7
102.1
103.0
102.6
-30,407
-1.9
-42,194
-2.5
-28,977
-1.7
18.
PART 1
POLAND AND THE WORLD
1. MAJOR TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
1.1. General condition of the world economy in 2014
The growth rate of the global economy in the 1st half of 2014 was slower than projected at the beginning
of the year and reflected the different than assumed economic activity in specific regions, in particular:
 Slower growth in the USA (0.8% YoY), resulting mainly from temporary factors (harsh winter and
reduction of inventories) and a substantial decline in export in Q1 following its dynamic growth in Q4
2013. Despite a faster growth rate in Q2 2014, contributing to further improvement of the situation
on the labour market and growth in employment, the overall result was lower than projected. In
addition, despite a weak economic condition, American import proved to be stronger than projected.
 The slowdown of economic activity in Russia and other CIS countries. As regards Russia, the weak
economic activity was a consequence of a substantial drop in investments and large capital outflow
due to the escalation of tensions in relations with Ukraine. In the case of other CIS countries, the
weak economic activity resulted from the economic downturn in Ukraine and the progressing crisis
in Russia.
 The slowdown of economic growth in Latin America, especially in Brazil.
 The persisting low level of economic growth in the eurozone (a decline in Italy, stagnation in France
and surprisingly slow growth in Germany in Q2).
 Slower than projected economic growth in Japan.
 The slowdown of economic activity in China in Q1, which prompted the authorities to undertake
measures supporting faster growth in Q2.
Inflation in developed economies remained, in general, below targets set by central banks, which
indicates that many of those economies had a substantial product gap. In the eurozone, inflation
persisted below the projected level and dropped to 0.4% in August (YoY). A moderate deflation in
consumer prices persisted in several economies of the eurozone in which unemployment was higher
than the average value for the entire zone. In the last months of the 1 st half of 2014, the USA
experienced a moderate increase in inflation, but it still remained below the long-term target of 2%, set
by the Federal Reserve. In Japan, overall inflation and core inflation (without fuels and food products)
grew in July 2014 by 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively, while in emerging economies those inflation rate
remained at a generally stable level since spring 2014.
29
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 2 GDP growth rate in constant prices in reference to the previous year
2013
2014
2015****
World
3.4
3.4
3.3
Developed countries
1.4
1.8
2.1
United States
2.2
2.4
2.5
European Union
0.1
1.4
1.8
Euro area*
-0.5
0.9
1.5
Germany
0.2
1.6
1.6
Japan
1.6
-0.1
0.8
Developing countries
5.0
4.6
4.2
CIS
2.2
1.0
-2.2
Russia
1.3
0.6
-3.4
Middle East, North Africa**
2.4
2.6
2.6
Sub-Saharan Africa
5.2
5.0
4.4
Latin America and the Caribbean
2.9
1.3
0.5
Emerging and developing Asia
7.0
6.8
6.6
China
7.8
7.4
6.8
India
6.9
7.2
7.5
ASEAN-5***
5.2
4.6
4.7
* excluding Lithuania; ** together with Afghanistan and Pakistan; *** Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam;
**** forecast;
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of IMF data from April and July 2015.
In 2014, the monetary policy in developed economies was, in principle, flexible and adjusted itself to
current needs and trends, while in emerging economies it was, in general, invariable. In the said period,
the ECB announced a number of projects aimed at maintaining low inflation in the eurozone, enabling
the introduction of measures facilitating access to loans and improving financial liquidity. Geopolitical
tensions between Russian and Ukraine as well as in the Middle East increased in 2014. However, so far
the impact of those tensions on economic activity was, in principle, limited to countries directly involved
in conflicts and to their closest trade partners. The response of financial markets to those events was
moderate.
Since April 2014, the conditions for financing business activity have improved. This pertains, in
particular, to the drop in long-term interest rate in developed economies. Despite the weaker activity in
emerging economies, the inflow of capital maintained at a relatively high level, exchange rates stabilised
and, in certain cases, even grew.
In the second half of 2014, the situation in the global economy was developing in accordance with the
autumn forecasts of the IMF, but there were also certain unexpected discrepancies between the
development scenarios of main world economies, in particular between the stronger than initially
projected recovery in the US economy and the weaker than expected activity in the majority of other
leading world economies. The main economic growth driver in the USA was high consumption resulting
from continuous growth of employment and income, lower oil prices and growing consumer confidence.
In Japan, on the other hand, after a weak second half of the year, the annual GDP growth index
fluctuated at around zero due to weak consumption and decline in investments.
In the eurozone, economic activity in the 2nd half of 2014 proved weaker than the projections made in
the middle of the year, but showed certain signs and precursors of recovery in Q4 and at the beginning
of 2015 due to growth in consumption supported by low oil prices and net export growth.
The economic activity in China was, in general, at a level similar to the one projected, but in the 2nd half
of the year investments experienced a slowdown due to limited activity and perspectives of a further
decline in the real estate sector.
30
The growth in Latin America in the 2nd half of the year was moderate, reflecting the weak economic
activity of Brazil, lower than projected growth in Mexico and other countries of the region.
The economic standing of Russia was slightly better than projected, but the increased geopolitical
tensions and the repercussions of a drop in oil prices are a sign of a further worsening of the crisis in all
CIS economies.
1.2. Economic situation on crucial world markets
1.2.1.
United States
Despite a low share in Polish trade turnover, as a leading participant in global economy, the United
States play a key role in shaping the condition of world economy and, therefore, have a both a direct
and indirect impact on the condition of Polish economy, including its production and export capacity.
As a result of the recovery experienced in the 2nd and 3rd quarter, the average annual GDP growth rate
of US economy in 2014 proved to be relatively high compared to other highly developed economies and
amounted to 2.4%. GDP was generated solely by domestic demand (up by 2.5% to USD 17.7 trillion).
The dominant element in domestic demand was private consumption (up by 2.5% to nearly USD 11.8
trillion). Investments in gross fixed assets grew in 2014 by 3.9% (to nearly USD 3.3 trillion). The export
of goods and services (in market prices) grew in 2014 by 3.2% (to over USD 2.3 trillion), while import
increased by 4%, reaching the level of nearly USD 2.9 trillion. The United States experienced a slight
slowdown of economic activity at the beginning of 2015. Slower economic growth was the consequence
of, inter alia, the appreciation of US dollar and an exceptionally harsh winter at the beginning of 2015.
The last drops in oil prices also had an impact on capital expenditure in the mining sector. The
perspectives of recovery in investments in the residential construction sector also remain uncertain,
partially due to ambiguous long-term demographic forecasts and related demand projections. The low
level of public and private capital investments contributed to the decline in efficiency and affected
production capacities. The situation on the labour market systematically improved due to growing
employment in the private sector and lower unemployment rate. The support measures applied in the
field of monetary policy and lower energy prices translated into aggregate demand growth as well as
increasing growth of consumer expenditures and prosperity of households.
Table 3 Basic US economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015*
GDP
2.2
2.4
2.0
Internal demand
1.9
2.5
2.7
Private consumption
2.4
2.5
3.0
Public consumption
-1.3
0.4
0.5
2.7
3.9
3.0
Consumer prices
1.5
1.6
0.0
Unemployment rate
7.4
6.2
5.5
Volume of exports (goods and services)
3.0
3.2
1.7
Volume of imports (goods and services)
1.1
4.0
6.4
CA balance (% GDP)
-2.4
-2.4
-2.6
* forecast;
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of OECD data from June 2015.
31
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
1.2.2.
Japan
In accordance with earlier forecasts by OECD, Japanese economy experienced a GDP decline in 2014
(by 0.1% compared to the previous year). The economic slowdown was the consequence of the
implementation of the last round of reforms – the so-called "Abenomics" (named after the Japanese
prime minister – Shinzō Abe). Following the utilisation of stimuli as well as monetary and fiscal policy
instruments and, thus, implementation of two out of three main pillars of this plan, the government
consistently implemented the assumptions of the so-called three-pronged strategy to restore Japan's
economy, i.e. to support the household sector and businesses alike and increase their trust towards the
state. The most important reform, introduced in April 2014, was the increase of the tax on consumption
from 5% to 8% (for the first time since 1997). As a result, in effect of a natural phenomenon preceding
the announced tax increase Japan recorded an anticipatory economic growth of 2.3% compared to the
corresponding period of the previous year, resulting mainly from increased private consumption and
increased investments made by enterprises. However, in the quarters following the introduction of the
tax reform GDP declined by 0.4%, 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively, compared to corresponding periods of
2013. Initially, it was assumed that the tax on consumption was to be increased once again in 2015, but
after the substantial slowdown of the economy the Japanese government decided to introduce the
reform at a later time – in 2017. In the last quarter of 2014, the negative trend was slightly improved by
export growth and decline in the value of Yen and prices of mineral resources imported by Japan.
In the experts' opinion, the “quantitative and qualitative easing” program introduced by the Bank of
Japan should be continued until the designated inflation target (2%) is achieved and maintained in a
manner ensuring a definitive emergence from deflation. The priority task was still considered to be the
reduction of public debt which reached the level of approx. 230% of GDP in 2014 and the achievement
of a budget surplus by 2020. In addition, the effects of a stricter fiscal policy in the form of raising the tax
on consumption is to be eased by the planned reduction of the corporate income tax (CIT) which, as
stipulated, will stimulate corporate investments, viewed as the key to increasing labour efficiency
persisting at a level significantly below the OECD average.
Table 4 Basic Japanese economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015*
GDP
1.6
-0.1
0.7
Internal demand
1.9
-0.1
0.5
Private consumption
2.1
-1.3
0.3
Public consumption
1.9
0.3
0.9
3.2
2.6
-0.6
Consumer prices
0.4
2.7
0.7
Unemployment rate
4.0
3.6
3.5
1.2
8.4
7.2
3.1
7.4
4.9
CA balance (% GDP)
0.8
0.5
2.8
* forecast;
1.2.3.
Western Europe and the eurozone
In 2014, including, in particular, the second half of the year, the economic activity in most countries of
the eurozone was showing signs of recovery as a result of the progressing decrease in oil prices, the
depreciation of EUR, fiscal policy easing and slower fiscal consolidation. Despite the above, economic
growth remained at a relatively low level. The low economic growth was the consequence of many
factors, among which it is necessary to distinguish the continued strict credit policy and measures aimed
at the reduction of high public debt. The high unemployment rate has persisted, in particular among
32
young people entering the labour market. At the same time, the above elements also contributed to
reduced inflation pressure, as a result of which consumption prices in 2014 grew only by 0.4%, i.e.
below the inflation target of the European Central Bank (ECB).
The fiscal consolidation rate declined despite the constant high level of debt in many countries, creating
a certain fiscal space for measures supporting economic growth. Despite the implementation of the
most important reforms related to fiscal policy in eurozone economies in 2014, the reduction of public
debt is a long-term process. The depreciation of the common currency in the analysed period reflected
the expectations related to pursuing a more strict monetary policy in the United States than in the
eurozone. On the other hand, the disinflationary pressure resulted in measures easing the monetary
policy pursued by the ECB, which was directly related to dropping crude oil prices and increased
internal demand.
An important factor having an impact on the improvement of economic condition in the eurozone was
the continuation of the process of creating the banking union, which is to help rebuild trust in the
banking system and strengthen its security and stability. The establishment of the Single Supervisory
Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) is to ensure a joint approach to the
problem of banks on the brink of bankruptcy and thus increase the stability of the financial sector in
Member States. In addition, this will allow to avoid the spread of crises to other countries and facilitate
the operation of the internal market.
Table 5 Basic eurozone economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015***
GDP
-0.3
0.9
1.4
Internal demand
-0.7
0.9
1.5
Private consumption
-0.6
1.0
1.8
Public consumption
0.2
0.6
0.7
-2.3
1.2
2.0
Consumer prices
1.3
0.4
0.0
Unemployment rate
11.9
11.5
11.1
CA balance (% GDP)
2.8
3.4
3.9
Public finance sector gross indebtedness (% GDP*)
104.9
111.5
110.9
Public finance sector indebtedness (% GDP)**
93.5
94.6
94.1
* GDP in market prices; ** according to the Maastricht criterion; *** forecast;
Germany
Germany, the biggest EU economy and the main trade partner of Poland, recorded an economic growth
of 1.6% in 2014, compared to a slight growth – bordering on stagnation – in the previous year. The
growth of German economy was the consequence of improvement in all of its components. The
dropping prices of crude oil supported the consumers' purchasing power. In addition, the economic
recovery resulted from increased gross fixed capital formation and, to a lesser extent, increased net
value of export.
A slight decline in industrial output was observed in the third quarter of 2014, caused mainly by
relatively low demand in euro area economies recovering from the economic crisis and their strict credit
policy (decline on those markets for investment goods in the production of which the German industry
specializes). The decline of export to Russia also translated into a decrease in investments in Germany.
On the other hand, the increase in private consumption as well as low unemployment rate and growth in
real wages stimulated the recovery of the services sector. The unemployment rate was still subject to a
33
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
slow downward trend (from 5.2% in 2013 to 5.0% in 2014), while the consumer price index amounted to
0.8%, reflecting the dropping prices of energy and import from other eurozone economies.
It is estimated that the benefits of economic recovery will ease the possible negative effects of the
reform introducing a uniform minimum wage of EUR 8.5 per hour – announced in 2014 and effective as
of 1st of January 2015. Until now, the German government only limited itself to analysing the level of
wages, which was the result of negotiations between trade unions and employers; therefore, minimum
wage was applicable only in certain industries. Following the introduction of the reform, the minimum
wage is to be determined in consultation with the representatives of trade unions and employers. Prior
to the introduction of minimum wage, Germany was one of seven EU countries without such solutions.
The first negotiations on updating the amount of minimum wage are planned for January 2018.
Table 6 Basic German economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015***
GDP
0.2
1.6
1.6
Internal demand
0.8
1.3
2.0
Private consumption
0.9
1.2
2.3
Public consumption
0.7
1.2
2.2
-0.4
3.3
2.5
Consumer prices
1.6
0.8
0.2
Unemployment rate
5.2
5.0
4.7
Unit labour costs
2.6
2.1
2.4
1.7
3.7
3.9
3.2
3.4
5.4
CA balance (% GDP)
6.6
7.8
8.5
81.6
82.3
78.7
77.0
74.6
71.0
United Kingdom
In 2014, the Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom grew by 2.8% in real terms (in constant
prices from 2011) as a consequence of the final domestic demand growth (up by 3.4%), dominated by
private consumption (up by 2.5%). The increase in domestic demand was driven by the intensive
creation of jobs (this process is to be continued at least until 2016). It is necessary to note that fixed
capital investments grew by nearly 8% in 2014. The export volume of goods and services grew by 0.6%,
while import grew at a slightly faster rate (up by 2.2%).
In relation to negative phenomena resulting from deflation, actions were being undertaken to gradually
stimulate pressure on price growth. As part of this policy it was assumed that the monetary policy will be
pursued so that the situation begins to evolve towards moderate inflation in the middle of 2015. This
forecast assumed that the government would continue to implement its medium-term consolidation plan.
In combination with economic recovery, higher interest rates were to support stronger growth in
efficiency by encouraging the selection of more viable projects and the restructuring of enterprises
generating losses. Labour efficiency was also to be improved by further structural reforms aimed at the
improvement of access to loans, limiting labour market disturbances and further improvement of
infrastructure.
From the second quarter of 2013 onwards, the British economy grew at a rate of 3% YoY. The main
driver of this growth was private consumption, including the active creation of jobs and continued strong
recovery in investments. The consumption was supported by the improved situation on the labour
market resulting from growing labour supply due to the growing working age population and its
professional activity. Labour supply remained at a high level as a result of the progressing growth. The
34
simultaneous growing labour demand translated into an increase in labour efficiency. As a result, the
unemployment rate dropped, the number of job vacancies grew and signs of a shortage of qualified
workforce began to appear. At the same time, the export position of the British economy persisted at a
low level, which combined with the negative income balance resulted in a deficit on the current account
balance of approximately 5% of GDP.
The British government continued to implement the medium-term financial plan, which was supposed to
lead to a stricter budgetary policy, in particular to limiting the structural deficit and a more efficient
enforcement of taxes. Despite the fiscal consolidation, the continued growth of GDP seems
unthreatened. At the same time, perspectives for the development of British economy are, for the most
part, dependent on export growth, which in turn is strongly conditioned upon the economic situation in
the entire eurozone.
Table 7 Basic British economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015***
GDP
1.7
2.8
2.4
Internal demand
1.8
3.4
2.8
Private consumption
1.7
2.5
2.5
Public consumption
-0.3
1.7
1.3
3.4
7.8
4.7
Consumer prices
2.6
1.5
0.0
Unemployment rate
7.6
6.2
5.4
Unit labour costs
1.4
0.4
2.3
1.5
0.6
3.8
1.4
2.2
4.8
CA balance (% GDP)
-4.5
-5.5
-5.1
100.8
111.3
113.3
87.3
89.3
91.3
France
Following a slight economic recovery in 2013, GDP growth in France slowed down in the first half of
2014 and amounted to only 0.2% on an annual scale (despite the slight acceleration in the second half
of the year). In the opinion of OECD analysts, the economic slowdown observed in France was the
consequence, inter alia, of weaker investments of non-financial entities, in which the increase in the last
quarters of 2013 translated into an economic recovery experienced at that time.
In the last quarter of 2014, the French market showed signs of economic recovery resulting from the
introduction of a number of structural reforms, including the competitiveness and employment tax credit
(French: Crédit d’impôt compétitivité et emploi – CICE) and the Responsibility and Solidarity Pact
(French: Pacte de responsabilité et de solidarité – PRS), aimed at the reduction of labour costs. In
addition, in the second half of 2014 the depreciation of Euro and lower energy prices, similarly to other
EU countries, contributed to the stimulation of internal and export market demand. This resulted in a
gradual recovery of French export, mainly eurozone markets, and the foreign trade deficit was reduced
from approx. 3% of GDP in 2011 to approx. 1.6% of GDP in 2014.
Despite a negative impact of the inflation level on government finances, the budget deficit in France
decreased by 0.1 p.p. compared to 2013, reaching the level of 4% of GDP in 2014. Government
expenditure, on the other hand, grew by 1.5%, i.e. at the slowest rate since 1998. The slower growth of
government expenditure was achieved despite the increase in costs arising from the implementation of
the CICE and PRS reforms. As a consequence, local government investments experienced a decline.
35
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Moreover, the – temporary – reduction of French financial contribution to the EU budget also had an
effect on the reduction of government expenditures.
Table 8 Basic French economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015***
GDP
0.7
0.2
1.1
Internal demand
0.8
0.7
1.3
Private consumption
0.5
0.7
1.6
Public consumption
1.7
1.5
1.2
-0.4
-1.2
-0.6
Consumer prices
1.0
0.6
0.1
Unemployment rate
9.9
9.8
10.1
Unit labour costs
0.6
1.5
0.7
1.8
2.4
4.9
1.8
3.9
5.5
CA balance (% GDP)
-1.4
-1.0
-0.5
111.4
120.4
121.9
92.2
95.5
97.0
Italy
The Italian economy has been in a recession since 2012, but it is becoming milder with each year –
GDP of Italy declined by 2.8% in 2012, but only by 0.4% in 2014. The economic recession coupled with
the drop in prices of energy and goods contributed to the further lowering of inflation, which fluctuated
near zero for the most of the analysed period and in effect grew by 0.2% in annual terms. The
unemployment rate in Italy increased by 0.5 p.p. and remain at a relatively high level (12.7%).
The budget deficit in 2014 amounted to 3% of GDP (2.9% of GDP in 2013). The reduction in costs
related to public debt servicing by 0.2 p.p. of GDP only slightly limited the scale of the deficit, which is
the product of continued recession, low inflation and decline in financial sector tax revenues. The public
finance sector debt grew in the analysed period to 132% of GDP. According to the forecasts prepared
by OECD, subsequent years may bring a further reduction due to improvement in economic condition,
the first signs of which were visible in the first quarter of 2015.
Table 9 Basic Italian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015***
GDP
-1.7
-0.4
0.6
Internal demand
-2.5
-0.6
0.4
Private consumption
-2.8
0.3
0.4
Public consumption
-0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-5.8
-3.2
1.6
Consumer prices
1.3
0.2
0.2
Unemployment rate
12.2
12.7
12.7
Unit labour costs
0.6
1.3
0.6
0.7
2.4
3.4
-2.2
1.6
2.9
CA balance (% GDP)
1.0
1.8
2.6
144.8
158.5
159.6
128.6
132.0
133.2
36
1.2.4.
Main emerging markets
China
One of the most important trade partners of Poland among emerging markets is China. Following a high
and continuous economic growth of 7.7% recorded in the last two years, China experienced a slight
slowdown in this regard with an economic growth of 7.4% observed in 2014. The slower economic
growth resulted from lower demand in manufacturing and weaker economic situation on the real estate
market, where drops were recorded both in the sales and prices of apartments. The Chinese authorities
adopted a number of solutions to maintain stable growth, inter alia, by increasing infrastructural
investments and social housing. However, the share of investments in GDP has been declining for the
past several years. While the increased credit supply and more favourable fiscal policy have resulted in
an economic growth recovery in the second half of 2014, GDP growth rate remained below the average
values from previous years for the third consecutive year. In the analysed period, inflation amounted to
2.1% as a consequence of the increase in the prices of industrial products, while the prices of food
products remained at a stable level. Low inflation, which coincided with economic growth slowdown,
proved conducive to the relaxation of the monetary policy, while the application of existing and
introduction of new measures necessary to maintain financial stability continued; however, it is
assessed that the fiscal policy of the authorities is largely of pro-development nature.
The fast economic growth the years 2000-2012 (8-14% in annual terms) based on high rates of savings
and investments, supported by a very fast growth in the level of debt of companies and households,
creates barriers for its continuation. The economic slowdown observed since 2013 may be conducive to
a more balanced development of Chinese economy.
Table 10 Basic Chinese economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015*
GDP
7.7
7.4
6.8
Inflation
2.6
2.1
1.6
8.6
5.7
6.1
10.7
6.9
7.0
Terms of trade
0.0
0.0
0.1
CA balance (% GDP)
1.6
2.1
2.4
* forecast;
India
Following the economic slowdown in 2012, the Indian economy returned to the path of stable growth,
which amounted to 7.2% in 2014. This means that India is among the fastest developing countries in the
world. The economic recovery was mainly the consequence of:
 continuous and stable growth in consumption, both public and private;
 significant growth in investments in the first half of the year;
 recovery on the financial services market, and
 increased output of the manufacturing industry, which for several previous quarters was
systematically shrinking.
The level of inflation fluctuating at approx. 10% since 2009 reached the level of 5.5% in October 2014
and 7.2% in annual terms. Inflation was reduced, for the most part, due to the decrease in prices on the
global resources market and further tightening of monetary policy. In accordance with the forecasts of
OECD, despite slowing down the fast increase in inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should
continue to maintain interest rates at their present level until the downward trend stabilises in the long
term. On the one hand, further tightening of the fiscal policy and a new road map for fiscal consolidation
37
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
constituted an important objective of the economic policy in 2014. On the other, the economic growth
was maintained at a stable level through the introduction of structural reforms by the government,
including: harmonisation of the labour law and tax law, and increasing public investments in
infrastructure.
Table 11 Basic Indian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015*
GDP
6.4
7.2
6.9
Inflation
10.1
7.2
5.6
4.4
4.1
5.2
-6.7
-2.2
3.0
CA balance (% GDP)
-2.5
-1.4
-1.1
* forecast;
Brazil
After a short economic slowdown in the first half of 2014, subsequent months showed signs of gradual
economic recovery. However, the economic growth amounted to only 0.2% in annual terms, which can
be interpreted as economic stagnation. Low economic growth was caused mainly by the strict monetary
and fiscal policies, declining external demand and low level of investments.
Similarly as in the previous year, inflation remained significantly above the inflation target (6.3% in
relation to 4.5% in 2014). In addition, the public debt grew in the analysed period and exceeded 60% of
GDP, with forecasts projecting further increase in debt level. An attempt to stop the above-mentioned
phenomena was undertaken by tightening the fiscal policy – among others by restoring the previously
lowered tax rates, and monetary policy – by continuing to increase interest rates. According to OECD
experts, the growth rate of Brazilian economy will accelerate upon the achievement of the inflation
target and, as a result, the country's economic policy will be relaxed and major structural reforms will be
introduced.
Table 12 Basic Brazilian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages
2013
2014
2015*
GDP
2.7
0.2
-0.8
Inflation
6.2
6.3
8.3
2.2
-1.0
-6.3
7.2
-1.0
-3.3
Terms of trade
-3.4
-3.9
-3.6
* forecast;
1.2.5.
Commonwealth of Independent States
The downward trend with regard to economic growth in CIS countries, observed in previous years,
persisted also in 2014. While the economies of CIS countries grew at the rate of 4.8% in 2012 and 2.2%
in 2013, growth recorded in 2014 amounted to approximately 1%.
According to IMF forecasts, a significant decline in economic growth in 2014 occurred in Russia, i.e.
from 1.3% in 2013 to 0.6% in 2014. The Ukrainian economy, on the other hand, recorded a GDP
decline by as much as 6.8%, following the stagnation in 2013. Belarus experienced economic growth at
the level of 1.6% in 2014, i.e. 0.6 p.p. higher than in 2013.
38
In contrast to an overall decline in economic condition in CIS countries, Georgia recorded economic
growth higher than in the previous year, i.e. 4.4% compared to 3.3% in 2013, while Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan experienced economic growth at a level comparable to the previous year (10.3% compared
to 10.2% and 8.1% compared to 8% in 2013, respectively). All other economies in this region developed
at a slower rate than in the previous year, but none of them suffered a recession. The biggest economic
slowdown was recorded in Kyrgyzstan (down from 10.5% in 2013 to 3.6% in 2014), Moldova (down from
9.4% in 2013 to 4.6%) and Azerbaijan (down from 5.8% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2014).
The economic situation in Russia deteriorated, inter alia, due to failure to introduce necessary reforms,
decline in investments, lower internal consumption caused by reduced growth rate of real income of the
population and budget expenditures in this area. In 2014, these long-term circumstances of structural
nature began to overlap with the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia in relation to the events in
Ukraine. In addition, at the end of 2014, the above-mentioned factors were further enhanced by the
decline in the prices of crude oil, Russia's main export product. In the last weeks of 2014, the price of
crude oil dropped to approximately USD 60/barrel, while just in June they reach USD 115/barrel.
Russia's decisions related to imposing an embargo on the import of certain food products from the EU,
USA, Norway, Canada and Australia also began to have a negative effect due to Russia's significant
dependency on import. As a consequence of restricting import, inflation grew to 11.4%, including to
15.7% on the food market (compared to the expected level of 5-5.5% at the end of 2014). A relevant
factor having a negative impact on inflation was the fast progressing depreciation of RUB. Despite the
large scale actions undertaken by the Central Bank of Russia, including direct and very costly
interventions (more than USD 87 billion expended for this purpose in the entire 2014, including approx.
USD 30 billion in October alone), RUB reached record low levels in relation to both USD and EUR. In
the entire 2014, RUB depreciated by 71.9% in nominal terms against USD (at the beginning of January,
USD 1 = RUB 32.73, while at the end of December – USD 1 = RUB 56.26), and by 52% against EUR
(EUR 1 = RUB 44.97 and EUR 1 = RUB 68.34, respectively). The condition of Russian economy had a
direct impact on the economic condition of other CIS markets.
In 2014, CIS countries still struggled with high inflation amounting to 8.1%, as compared to 6.4% in
2013. Having regard to the phenomenon of hyperinflation observed in Belarus in 2012, the high level of
inflation (18.1%) in 2014 can be viewed as a sign that the Belarusian currency is stabilising. The doubledigit inflation was also observed in Ukraine (12.1% in 2014, compared to a deflation of 0.2% the year
before) due to the country's crisis situation.
Sanctions imposed on Russian deteriorate its economic situation and indirectly affect other CIS
countries. This is reflected in data presented by the IMF for 2014 and forecasts for 2015. It is estimated
that CIS will record a GDP decline of 2.2% in 2015 and many countries may experience a double-digit
inflation rate. High economic growth which characterised the Caucasus and Central Asia regions will
also slow down – from 5.3% in 2014 to 3.2% in 2015. The projected deterioration of the economic
situation is a side effect of, among others, the dropping prices of exported oil and resources.
Most analysts, international institutions and rating agencies do not view Russia as a country which could
enter the path of stable economic growth any time soon. Most assessments and forecasts project that
Russia will experience a GDP decline of 3.5-7.0% in 2015 and a slow emergence from the crisis – with
further, but slower GDP decline – in the perspective through 2017. According to the IMF, the fall in
crude oil prices, difficult financial situation, international economic sanctions and the country's declining
confidence will translate into the occurrence of a recession; it is estimated that GDP will decline by 3.4%
in 2015, while inflation in that same year will grow to 17.9%.
39
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
As regards countries with strong economic ties to Russia, such as Belarus and Armenia, it is estimated
that those countries will also suffer a recession at the level of 2% and 1%, respectively, in 2015. In the
case of Moldova a recession of approx. 1% is projected, resulting mainly from the country's internal
situation, as opposed to Belarus and Armenia whose results will be under an indirect influence of
economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
It is projected that Ukrainian economy will remain in recession characterised by a GDP decline of 5.5%
in 2015. The main factor influencing the course of economic processes in Ukraine will be the events in
the eastern part of the country. In the long-term perspective, the stabilisation of the internal situation,
inter alia, through the implementation of economic reforms agreed with main creditors, i.e. the World
Bank and the European Union, will enable Ukraine to once again enter the path of economic growth.
The biggest threat to the improvement of economic situation in the CIS countries is the uncertainty
regarding the development of the situation in Ukraine. Further escalation of adverse events with the
direct or indirect involvement of Russia may result in further sanctions that will, in turn, weaken its
economy. This situation will have an impact on the condition of other countries in this region, including,
in particular, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which comprise a customs union with Russia.
Table 13 GDP and consumer price growth rate in the CIS countries (YoY), expressed in percentages
2014
1.0
0.6
-6.8
4.3
1.6
2.8
10.3
8.1
3.4
6.7
3.6
4.6
GDP
2015*
-2.2
-3.4
-5.5
2.0
-2.3
0.6
9.0
6.2
-1.0
3.0
1.7
-1.0
2016*
1.2
0.2
2.0
3.1
-0.1
2.5
9.2
6.5
b.d
4.1
3.4
3.0
Consumer prices
2014
2015*
2016*
8.1
16.8
9.4
7.8
17.9
9.8
12.1
33.5
10.6
6.7
5.2
5.5
18.1
22.1
17.4
1.4
7.9
6.2
6.0
7.7
6.6
8.4
9.5
9.8
3.1
6.4
4.0
6.1
12.8
6.3
7.5
10.7
8.6
5.1
7.5
6.3
CIS
Russia
Ukraine*
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Tajikistan
Kirgistan
Moldova
* forecast;
1.3. Actual growth in global commodities trade in 2014
According to IMF data, the volume of world trade in goods and services increased in 2014 at a slower
rate than global GDP, i.e. by 3.2%, which means a slight slowdown compared to 2013.
Similarly as in the previous years, higher trade growth rate was observed in developing countries rather
than developed markets; however, the former recorded a slowdown, while the latter an acceleration.
Developed markets experience a much faster recovery with respect to import, which grew by 3.3% in
2014 (compared to 2.1% in 2013). Export in this group of countries grew at the same rate (i.e. by 3.3%),
but that meant an acceleration by only 0.2 p.p. compared to 2013.
The volume of export from developing markets grew by 3.4% (i.e. 1.2 p.p. slower than in the previous
year). An even higher slowdown was observed as regards imports to this group, which grew by 3.4% in
2014 (compared to 5.2% in 2013).
40
Table 14 Change dynamics in global goods and services trade in the years 2013-2015 (in relation to the
previous year), expressed in percentages
Exports
Imports
World
Developed countries
Developed countries
2013
3.3
3.1
4.6
2.1
5.2
2014
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
2015*
4.1
3.2
5.3
4.5
3.6
2016*
4.4
4.1
5.7
4.5
4.7
* forecast
According to the data provided by the World Trade Organization, the global commodities trade volume
increased by 2.8%. However, this growth was well below the average of 5.1% calculated for the period
from 1990 and below the average prior to the crisis (6.0%), but above the average for the last three
years (2.4%). It is worth noting that growth in the export volume in the first half of the year amounted to
only 1.9%, but was significantly higher in the second half of the year (up by 3.7%).
Among the factors determining the relatively low growth of global turnover and production in 2014, the
WTO analysts pointed out, among others: the slowdown of economic growth in emerging countries,
unequal recovery on developed markets, increased geopolitical tensions in certain regions of the world,
strong exchange rate fluctuations (including the substantial appreciation of USD against other
currencies, progressing since July 2014) and slump in global crude oil prices (down by 47% between 15
July and 31st of December 2014).
The commodities export volume in economically developed countries grew by 2.2% in 2014, compared
to a 1.6% increase the year before. In the first half of 2014, the growth rate amounted to 1.8%, while in
the second – 2.5%. A significantly faster growth rate was observed on the side of import: a 3.2%
increase compared to a 0.2% decrease in 2013. A substantial recovery in turnover occurred in North
America. Export volume grew by 4.3% in comparison to a 2.8% increase the year before. The import
growth rate amounted to 4.4% and was four times higher than in 2013. Improvement in terms of trade
balance has also occurred in Europe. Export grew by 1.9% (1.6% in the previous year), while import
increased by 2.8% (compared to a decline of 1.8% and 0.3% recorded in 2012 and 2013, respectively).
In 2014, the trade exchange growth rate in developing countries decreased. Export volume grew by
3.3% in comparison to a 3.9% increase the year before, while the import volume grew by 2.0%
(compared to a 5.3% increase in the previous year). In the last three years, the ratio of export growth
rates in developing and developed countries has been successively declining. In 2012 the ratio
amounted to 3.4; in 2013 – 2.4; while in 2014 – 1.5. The trend of a more dynamic growth of import in
developing countries than economically developed countries, observed in the last years, has been
reversed in 2014.
The turnover in Asia also experienced a slowdown, with the export volume rising by 4.9% (compared to
5% in 2013) and the import volume increasing by 3.6% (compared to 4.8% in 2013). Even more
unfavourable changes in turnover were observed in South and Central America, where export declined
by 2.5% in 2014 after a 1.5% growth in 2013. Import declined by 3% (compared to a 3% growth the year
before).
41
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 15 Change dynamics in the volume of global commodities trade in the years 2012-2014 (in relation
to the previous year), expressed in percentages
2012
1.1
3.7
4.5
0.8
0.8
2.7
4.0
Exports
2013
1.6
3.9
2.8
1.5
1.6
5.0
0.7
2014
2.2
3.3
4.3
-2.5
1.9
4.9
0.1
2012
-0.1
4.9
3.2
2.3
-1.8
3.6
9.9
Imports
2013
-0.2
5.3
1.1
3.2
-0.3
4.8
3.9
2014
Developed countries
3.2
2.0
North America
4.4
South and Central America
-3.0
Europe
2.8
Asia
3.6
Other regions *
0.0
* Africa, CIS, Middle East
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of WTO data from April 2015.
1.4. Price and exchange rate conditions of global
commodities turnover in 2014
1.4.1.
Changes in world prices
The fall in crude oil prices played a key role in the global decline in the prices of commodities in 2014.
The average price of crude oil, which remained at a level of approx. USD 104 per barrel since the
beginning of 2011, dropped by more than 40% in the period from September 2014 to March 2015. The
fall in prices resulted from increased production and supply potential of this raw material in countries
outside OPEC, mainly in the United States, faster than projected economic recovery and higher oil
production in OPEC countries affected by internal conflicts (Iraq, Syria, Libya) and, in particular, the
OPEC decision of November 2014 on maintaining the current level of oil production despite the sharp
fall in its prices. The decreased demand for this raw material due to its efficient and rational
consumption as well as geopolitical considerations related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
also contributed to the decline in prices.
A substantial decrease in the prices of commodities was observed from March to October 2014. The
main cause for such decline in prices were food commodities, the prices of which dropped by 9% as a
consequence of promising perspectives for the harvest of cereals and oilseeds. From September 2014,
the prices of commodities dropped by 28%, inter alia, due to a substantial decrease in energy prices
(down by 38%) which, in turn, were lower due to the 43% decline in crude oil prices. The prices of gas
and coal dropped at a slower rate, partially due to the postponed indexation in relation to lower oil
prices.
The prices of commodities not dependent on oil prices, i.e. industrial metals as well as agricultural and
food commodities, decreased as well (by approx. 15% and approx. 6%, respectively). The commodities
whose prices increased include meat (where prices increased due to the swine flu epidemic which
decimated the stock in the United States) and arabica coffee beans (the plantations of which were
affected by a prolonged draught).
As indicated in the latest IMF report (from April 2015), the global commodities trade volume grew in
2014 by 3% YoY, i.e. 0.4 p.p. slower than the volume of goods and services. The export of commodities
from developed countries grew by 2.9%, while from emerging and developing economies by 3.5%. The
import volume grew by 2.5% and 3.6%, respectively. It is necessary to note that the volume of export
from fuel exporting countries increased in the analysed period, but only by 0.2%, while export from non-
42
fuel exporting countries grew by 5%. The growth of import volume in those two groups of countries, on
the other hand, proved less diversified and amounted to 2% and 4%, respectively.
The USD price deflator in the commodities turnover of developed economies (both in export and import)
amounted to -1.4%. An even bigger decline in prices was observed in the trade of emerging and
developing economies (more than -3%). The price deflator in the export from fuel exporting countries
reached an even lower level (-6.2%), as a direct consequence of the decline in oil prices.
The decrease in prices of most commodities, which started two years prior, continued also in 2014. As
regards processed industrial products, the decrease in prices in global trade in the past two years was
relatively small, amounting to 1.4% in 2013 and 0.8% in the previous year. Oil prices in annual average
terms dropped by approx. 9%, but their level dropped by more than 40% from June until the end of
2014. The prices of basic commodities, excluding crude oil, dropped by 4%. The prices of food
commodities fell by 4.2%. Following a substantial decrease in the last two years, the prices of
beverages experienced a dynamic growth by more than 20%. The prices of basic agricultural products
also rose, but to a smaller extent (up by nearly 2%). The global prices of metals fell for the third
consecutive year (by more than 10%). In the case of raw materials and other industrial commodities,
including metals, the decline in prices was chiefly caused by lower demand resulting from slower
economic activity, in particular in main emerging economies, especially in China.
The decreases in global prices of basic raw materials and industrial commodities (especially metals)
observed for the last three years, amplified by a sudden and sharp drop in the prices of crude oil and
other petroleum derivative energy resources, proved favourable for highly developed economies
producing and exporting highly processed and technologically advanced commodities, but
disadvantageous for less-developed economies whose development is based on exporting oil and other
raw materials as well as low processed and less technologically advanced semi-finished products. This
is reflected in changes in the Terms of Trade (ToT) indices for major groups on global markets in 2014.
The ToT index in global trade in goods and services for developed countries improved by 0.3% in 2014,
while in emerging and developing economies this index declined by 0.6%.
The Terms of Trade indices for commodities trade of main regional market groups were as follows:
 CIS (together with Georgia and Ukraine) – down by 2.7%;
 emerging Asian markets – up by 3.8%;
 emerging European markets (according to IMF, among others, for Poland) – up by 1.1%;
 Latin American and Caribbean markets – down by 2.4%;
 the Middle East and North African markets – down by 3.7%;
 Sub-Saharan Africa – down by 4.2%.
In 2014, countries exporting crude oil and petroleum-based fuels recorded a significant decrease in the
ToT index (down by 4.1%), while in countries which do not export those commodities this index
improved by nearly 2%.
1.4.2.
Exchange rate variations
In 2014, the American dollar appreciated in relation to currencies of major emerging economies due to
disturbances observed at the beginning of the year on their financial markets and the resulting weaker
medium-term development perspectives in comparison to highly-developed economies. In general,
exchange rate variations occurring in those economies in 2014 were convergent with the general trend
of devaluation of real effective exchange rates of local currencies. The pace of accumulation of foreign
43
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
exchange reserves slowed down in Latin America as well as in emerging and developing European
economies, as reflected by lower capital inflows to those economies and a decrease in foreign
exchange reserves due to exchange rate interventions. On the other hand, the above-mentioned pace
of accumulation of reserves remained at a high level in the oil economies of the Middle East and
accelerated at the end of the year in emerging Asian economies.
At the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015, exchange rate variations accelerated in a – probably slightly
delayed – response to changes in expectations related to economic growth and monetary policy in
leading economies as well as substantial drops in oil prices. Among the exchange rate variations of the
most important currencies, the substantial appreciation of American dollar was the most distinguishable,
as the real effective exchange rate in February 2015 increased by about 10% in relation to October
2014, with a particularly substantial appreciation (by about 14%) against currencies of major highlydeveloped economies. The exchange rate of Chinese Yuan (Renminbi), which remained at a stable
level throughout 2014, appreciated by 11% in real terms in February 2015.
Among major world currencies both Euro and Yen depreciated by approximately 7%. In addition, ever
since Switzerland withdrew from anchoring the franc to the euro on 15 January 2015, the Swiss
currency has significantly strengthened its position. Until February 2015, the currency of main exporters
of crude oil with a floating exchange rate was experiencing a depreciation. The depreciation was
particularly substantial in the case of Russian ruble, the real exchange rate of which declined by 30%.
As regards the currencies of developed economies, it is necessary to point out the depreciation of the
Canadian dollar (by 8%) and Norwegian krone (by 7%). Among main emerging markets, India – as a
major importer of oil – appreciated its currency by nearly 10% in real terms, while the Brazilian real
depreciated by 9%. In general, variations in the real effective exchange rates observed in recent months
reflected the growth forecasts for specific economies in the context of their dependency on the decline
of crude oil prices.
1.4.3.
Changes in global trade turnover in main regions
In 2014, global export experienced a stagnation. The value of global exports of goods expressed in US
dollars reached the level of USD 18.95 trillion and was only 0.7% higher than in 2013. The growth in
global exports in terms of value was significantly slower than in terms of volume (up by 2.8%), resulting
from a substantial decline in the prices of raw materials, including energy raw materials. In relation to
the above, the characteristic of global trade was the decline of export in regions based on the
production of raw materials, including, in particular, crude oil and other hydrocarbons. The value of
export of Latin America, CIS countries, Africa and the Middle East decreased by 6.0%, 5.9%, 7.6% and
3.9%, respectively. Taking into account the individual regions of the world, Europe and Asia account for
the most significant part of the trading volume. The contribution of European countries to both the global
export and import in 2014 amounted to 36.6% and 36.2%, respectively, while the share of Asian
countries represented 32.1% and 31.6%, respectively.
The value of European export of goods increased by 1% to the level of USD 6.74 trillion, while import
increased by 2%, reaching the level of USD 6.72 trillion. EU exports have increased at an identical rate
(i.e. 1%), attaining the value of USD 6.16 trillion. The export growth rate of the German economy – the
biggest economy in the region – grew at the fastest rate (4%) and attained the value of USD 1.51 trillion.
As regards export volumes in other key EU economies, only Italy recorded growth by 2% (attaining the
value of USD 529 billion), France (USD 583 billion) and the Netherlands (USD 672 billion) maintained
the level from 2013, while the United Kingdom experienced a decrease by 6% (to USD 507 billion). The
EU imports as a whole increased by 2% (reaching the level of USD 6.13 trillion), i.e. Germany by 2% (to
USD 1.22 trillion) and the United Kingdom by 4% (to USD 683 billion). The France (USD 679 billion) and
44
the Netherlands import (USD 587 billion) remained virtually unchanged, while Italy imports decreased by
2% (reaching the value of USD 472 billion).
In Asia – the world’s second-largest contributor to the volume of trade in goods – exports increased by
2%, attaining the value of USD 5.92 trillion. Meanwhile, import volumes remained at a level similar to the
previous year and amounted to USD 5.87 trillion. The relatively slow growth of exports in this part of the
world has been, to a large extent, the result of the further decline in Japanese exports (down by 10% in
2014, to a level of USD 684 billion) as well as of the fact that the exports in newly-industrialized Asian
economies grew by a mere 1% (attaining the level of USD 1.31 trillion). Against this background,
Chinese exports have experienced a dynamic growth (up by 6% to USD 2.34 trillion). In 2014, only the
Chinese economy has seen a growth in import (up by 1% to approximately USD 1.96 trillion), which
contrasted with the decline in imports in other main economies of the region, i.e. Japan (down by 1% to
USD 822 billion) and India (down by 1% to USD 460 billion).
The next most significant region in terms of the contribution to global trade is North America, accounting
for 13.5% of exports and 17.8% of imports in 2014. The export volume of this region amounted to USD
2.5 trillion, i.e. was 3% higher than in the previous year, while imports amounted to USD 3.3 trillion,
which means that imports grew at the same rate. The figures recorded for the United States were
identical to those of the entire region, i.e. a 3% increase in export (up to USD 1.62 trillion) and import
(up to USD 2.41 trillion). Canadian exports experienced a similar growth (reaching the value of USD 474
billion), while imports remained unchanged compared to the previous year (USD 475 billion). The trade
volume of Mexico, on the other hand, increased at a faster pace, rising by 5% both in terms of exports
(attaining the level of USD 398 billion) and imports (USD 412 billion).
In 2014, the value of exports from South and Central America amounted to USD 695 billion, decreasing
by 6% compared to the results for the previous year, while imports to this region fell by 4% to USD 742
billion. The export of goods in the biggest economy in this part of the world – Brazil – attained the value
of USD 225 billion and was 7% lower than in 2013. Brazilian imports, on the other hand, fell by 5%,
attaining the value of USD 239 billion. The contribution of South and Central America to the global trade
in goods amounted to 3.8% on the side of exports and 4% in terms of imports.
The Commonwealth of Independent States also experienced a decline in exports in 2014; during that
year, this region accounted for 4% of global export and 2.7% of global import. The total value of export
in the CIS amounted to USD 735 billion and was 6% lowered compared to the previous year. Imports in
this group of countries, on the other hand, declined by 12%, attaining the level of USD 506 billion. The
export decline experienced by the Russian economy – the dominant economy in the region – was
slightly milder; Russian exports fell by 5% (down to USD 497 billion), while imports decreased by 10%
(attaining the value of USD 308 billion).
The most considerable decline was recorded in Africa (down by 8% to a level of USD 557 billion). The
overall result depended primarily on the situation in crude oil exporting countries, whose exports
declined by 13% (to USD 286 billion). African imports, on the other hand, rose by 2% (to USD 647
billion); the group of crude oil exporting countries referred to above recorded an increase of 3% (to USD
206 billion), while to other countries – except for South Africa – by 4% (to USD 320 billion).
The Middle East accounted for 7% of the global export of goods and 4.3% of the global import in 2014.
The value of export in this region amounted to USD 1.29 trillion and was 4% lower compared to the
previous year, while imports rose by 1%, attaining the value of USD 790 billion.
45
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 16 Countries with a dominant position in terms of global commodities turnover in 2014
Exports
Value
(In.USD
billion)
Share
(in %)
No.
Country
1.
China
2,343
12.4
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
United States of America
Germany
Japan
the Netherlands
France
The Republic of Korea
Italy
1,623
1,511
684
672
583
573
529
8.6
8.0
3.6
3.6
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Hong Kong
524
2.8
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
United Kingdom
Russia
Canada
Belgium
Singapore
Mexico
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Spain
507
497
474
469
410
398
359
354
323
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
India
317
1.7
19.
20.
26.
No.
Imports
Value
Country
(In.USD
billion)
United States of
2,409
America
China
1,960
Germany
1,217
Japan
822
United Kingdom
683
France
679
Hong Kong
601
the Netherlands
587
the Republic of
526
Korea
Canada
475
Italy
472
India
460
Belgium
451
Mexico
412
Singapore
366
Spain
356
Russia
308
Taiwan
274
United Arab
262
Emirates
Turkey
242
Poland
218
World*
19,024
Taiwan
314
1.6 20.
Poland
217
1.1 24.
World*
18,935
100.0
* the data includes the value of re-exports and imports for re-exports;
Share
(in %)
12.7
10.3
6.4
4.3
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.1
100.0
The world's largest exporter of goods was China, which holds this position for the fifth year in a row,
systematically reinforcing its position as leader. In 2014, the share of this market in global exports
amounted to 12.4%, compared to 11.8% recorded in 2013 and 11.2% in 2012. The subsequent
positions, as far as global export of goods is concerned, have been occupied – as was the case in the
previous year – by the United States and Germany which accounted for 8.6% and 8.0% of global
exports. On the other hand, due to the aforementioned 4% decline in exports, the contribution of Japan
to global exports fell from 3.8% to 3.6%; in spite of this, Japan has managed to remain the fourth largest
global exporter of goods. It is worth to note Italy's ascent to the eighth spot (with a 2.8% share in global
exports), compared to the eleventh position in 2013 with a similar share.
As far as the 2014 list of the world's leading importers of goods is concerned, the top spots are held –
as has been the case in the previous years – by the United States (12.7%), China (10.3%) and
Germany (6.4%). Poland maintained the 26th position on the list of global exporters of goods with a
share of 1.1% (USD 217 billion). As regards imports, Poland has managed to move up one spot, taking
the 24th position with a 1.1% share in global imports (USD 218 billion).
The value of global export of services increased by 4% in 2014, reaching the level of USD 4.9 trillion.
Services accounted for nearly 21% of total global trade in goods and services. In terms of types of
services involved, the export of tourism services experienced the most dynamic increase, rising by 7%
to a level of nearly USD 1.8 trillion and accounting for more than one fourth of the entire global services
export volume. On the other hand, the export of transport services – which account for nearly 20% of
the entire volume of global services exports – grew by a mere 2% to a level of USD 900 billion.
46
The group of the so-called miscellaneous commercial services (including financial and accounting
services) accounted for approximately 52% of the global services export volume; the export of the
services in question increased by 5% to a level of USD 2.7 trillion. The weakest component of services
were production services related to the processing of goods, which declined by 3%.
Europe accounted for nearly half of the entire global services export volume (48.3%), with the volume of
such exports increasing by 5% to a level of USD 2.35 trillion. At the same time, this region also
accounted for 42% of the services import volume, experiencing a 5% increase in imports (up to USD 2.0
trillion). The export of services in the European Union rose by 5% (to USD 2.15 trillion), while import
also increased by 5% (to USD 1.81 trillion). The best results among the main European economies were
recorded in Germany (USD 267 billion), the United Kingdom (USD 329 billion), France (USD 263
billion), the Netherlands (USD 156 billion) and Ireland (USD 133 billion).
The share of Asian countries in the services trade amounted to 25.4% in terms of export and 28.5% in
terms of import. The value of Asian export of services increased by 5%, attaining the level of USD 1.24
trillion, while the value of import rose by 6%, reaching the value of USD 1.35 trillion. The most dynamic
growth in the volume of trade in services was observed in Japan – with an increase in exports by 19%
(to USD 158 billion) and imports by 12% (to USD 190 billion), and in China – with an increase in exports
by 8% (to USD 222 billion) and imports by 16% (to USD 382 billion).
North America accounted for 16.3% of the global export and 12.5% of the global import of services in
2014. The export of services in this region increased by 3% (to USD 793 billion), with imports also rising
by 3% (to USD 593 billion). In the case of the biggest economy in the region – the United States –
exports increased by 3% compared to the previous year (to USD 686 billion), while imports rose by 4%
compared to the previous year (to USD 454 billion).
The United States remains the leader of the global services trade – both in terms of export (with a share
amounting to 14.1%) and import (9.6%). As has been the case in the previous years, the second and
third positions in terms of the export of services were taken by the United Kingdom (6.8%) and Germany
(5.5%). As far as the import of services is concerned, the second position was occupied by China (with
a share of 8.1%), while third position was held by Germany (6.9%). In 2014, Poland took the 29th spot
on the list of the world’s biggest exporters of services (0.9% share in global export, down by one
position compared to the previous year), which resulted from a 2% increase in the export of services (to
USD 46 billion). In terms of import, on the other hand, Poland took the 33 rd position – the same as last
year – with a share amounting to 0.7%, i.e. USD 35 billion.
47
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
1.5. Prospects for global trade development in 2015
According to WTO estimates, the volume of global trade will increase by 3.3% in 2015 and by another
4% in 2016. At the same time, WTO analysts emphasize that those forecasts carry the risk connected
with persisting geopolitical tensions and weak economic growth which is of key importance for trade.
According to WTO estimates, the disproportion between the pace of growth of export volume in
economically developed countries (growth of 3.2%) and developing countries (3.6%) will become even
smaller in 2015. It is estimated that export in the former market group will grow at a faster rate (4.4%),
which will mean a reversal of the trend of faster export growth in less-developed countries (the growth of
export in those countries is estimated at the level of 4.1%).
Import in those market groups is projected to grow at a similar rate to export in 2015, i.e. by 3.2% for
economically developed countries and by 3.7% for less-developed countries. As regards the former
group, it means that the growth rate will remain at the level from the previous year, whereas in reference
to less-developed countries – that the export growth rate will be 1.7 p.p. higher.
In geographic terms, WTO experts estimate that the fastest export growth rate will be observed –as was
the case in the previous year – in Asia (up by 5%), followed by North America (up by 4.5%). The growth
rate of European export will be slightly slower (3%), but exports will grow at a faster pace than in 2014
(1.9%). A slight growth in exports (by 0.2%) is projected for South and Central Africa. It is estimated that
the group of markets including Africa, the CIS and the Middle East will experience a decline in exports
(down by 0.6%). Asia and North America are also estimated to be the leaders with respect to the growth
of import, which is predicted to increase by 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, in 2015. In Europe, import is
projected to grow by 2.7%.
Table 17 Changes in global commodities turnover and global GDP in the years 2012-2016 (in relation to
the previous year), expressed in percentages
Exports
Imports
World (average values for exports and
Imports)
Developed countries
Developed countries
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
2.2
2.4
2.8
3.3
4.0
1.1
3.7
-0.1
4.9
1.6
3.9
-0.2
5.3
2.2
3.3
3.2
2.0
3.2
3.6
3.2
3.7
4.4
4.1
3.5
5.0
* forecast
The achievement of the global trade turnover level projected by WTO experts is subject to certain risks,
as the still volatile global economy and unstable geopolitical situation may reverse the trend of gradual
recover in trade. Among the factors which may influence trade growth in 2015 include, inter alia, the
conflict in the Middle East, Ebola epidemic, oil price fluctuations, as well as the degree and nature of
economic recovery in specific regions, including in the most important global economies, such as the
United States and China.
OECD analysts, on the other hand, estimate that the global trade volume will grow by 3.9% in 2015, i.e.
the growth of global trade volume will be 0.7 p.p. faster than in 2014. As regards Poland, OECD
estimates further recovery in the export of goods and services, the volume of which is projected to grow
by 6% (compared to 5.6% in 2014). The growth rate of Polish imports is expected to slow down from
48
8.7% to 7.6% in 2015 due to the lower internal demand compared to the previous year, projected for
Poland. The faster pace of growth in the volume of Polish export of goods and services will be
dependent primarily on the relatively high growth rate of imports projected for our main trade partners,
including Germany (5.4%), France (5.5%) and the Czech Republic (8.5%).
Table 18 Projected changes in trade turnover volume (goods and services) in the years 2014-2016 (YoY),
expressed in percentages
2014
Exports
Imports
3.7
3.4
2.4
3.9
2.4
1.6
0.6
2.2
4.0
4.0
5.6
8.7
3.2
4.0
8.4
7.4
2015*
Exports
Imports
3.9
5.4
4.9
5.5
3.4
2.9
3.8
4.8
3.0
1.9
6.0
7.6
1.7
6.4
7.2
4.9
2016*
Exports
Imports
5.2
6.0
5.3
4.2
5.1
3.3
3.0
3.1
5.2
5.0
7.7
8.3
4.9
6.7
5.8
4.6
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
the Netherlands
Poland
United States of America
Japan
* forecast
1.6. Global public finances
The 2008-2009 global financial crisis brought about serious challenges in the field of macroeconomic
policy, including issues related to fiscal policy. The deteriorating economic condition of the world’s
biggest economies has forced the governments of individual countries to implement certain fiscal
incentives. At this stage one may refer to two types of fiscal stimulation, i.e. automatic fiscal stabilisers
and intervention packages. The first method of influencing real economy by way of fiscal policies is
related to the automatic response in terms of revenue and expenditure to the changes in the business
cycle. Economic recession brings about the decline in state revenues which coincide with increased
expenditure, including welfare expenditure. Interventionist actions, such as anti-crisis packages, bring
about similar results in that they stimulate an increase in state expenditure (e.g. investment and/or
welfare spending) and, by cutting taxes for the purposes of stimulating demand, result in a decrease of
budget revenues. As a result of the phenomena referred to above, the condition of public finance
deteriorates – initially in terms of budget deficit and, subsequently, in terms of public debt.
Chart 1 Performance of the public finance sector in the EU, the eurozone, the USA and Japan in the years
2009-2016
2013
2014
-2
-4.9
-7.8
-8.5
-8.7
-8.9
-8.8
-2.5
-2.4
-2.9
-2.9
-3.2
-5.6
-4.1
-4.5
-6.1
-6.5
-8.3
-10.6
-12
2016
-12.0
-10
-8.8
-8
-11.6
-6
-6.1
-6.8
% GDP
-4
-3.6
-4.2
-2
2015
-3.8
2012
-1.7
-2
2011
-6.5
2010
-4.2
2009
-7.1
0
-14
Eurozone
EU
Japan
USA
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Eurostat, OECD and IMF data.
49
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 19 Public finance sector performance in the EU, USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016
Excessive Deficit
Procedure
Result (surplus / deficit) of the general government sector
expressed as percentage of GDP
State / group of
group*
status**
Time of
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015^ 2016^
states
adjustment
Austria
EA
-5.3
-4.5
-2.6
-2.2
-1.3 -2.4
-2.0
-2.0
Belgium
EA
-5.5
-4.0
-4.1
-4.1
-2.9 -3.2
-2.6
-2.4
Bulgaria
D
-4.2
-3.2
-2.0
-0.7
-0.9 -2.8
-2.9
-2.9
Croatia
D
EDP
2016
-5.8
-5.9
-7.5
-5.3
-5.4 -5.7
-5.6
-5.7
Cyprus
EA
EDP
2016
-5.5
-4.8
-5.8
-5.8
-4.9 -8.8
-1.1
-0.1
the Czech Rep.
D
-5.5
-4.4
-2.7
-3.9
-1.2 -2.0
-2.0
-1.5
Denmark
ERM II / O
-2.8
-2.7
-2.1
-3.7
-1.1
1.2
-1.5
-2.6
Estonia
EA
-2.2
0.2
1.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
Finland
EA
EDP
-2.5
-2.6
-1.0
-2.1
-2.5 -3.2
-3.3
-3.2
France
EA
EDP
2017
-7.2
-6.8
-5.1
-4.8
-4.1 -4.0
-3.8
-3.5
Greece
EA
EDP
2016
-15.6 -11.0 -10.2
-8.7 -12.3 -3.5
-2.1
-2.2
Spain
EA
EDP
2016
-11.0
-9.4
-9.4 -10.3
-6.8 -5.8
-4.5
-3.5
the Netherlands
EA
-5.5
-5.0
-4.3
-4.0
-2.3 -2.3
-1.7
-1.2
Ireland
EA
EDP
2015
-13.9 -32.5 -12.7
-8.1
-5.8 -4.1
-2.8
-2.9
Lithuania
EA
-9.1
-6.9
-8.9
-3.1
-2.6 -0.7
-1.5
-0.9
Luxembourg
EA
-0.5
-0.5
0.4
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.3
Latvia
EA
-9.0
-8.1
-3.3
-0.8
-0.7 -1.4
-1.4
-1.6
Malta
EA
-3.3
-3.3
-2.6
-3.6
-2.6 -2.1
-1.8
-1.5
Germany
EA
-3.0
-4.1
-0.9
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
Poland
D
-7.3
-7.6
-4.9
-3.7
-4.0 -3.2
-2.8
-2.6
Portugal
EA
EDP
2015
-9.8 -11.2
-7.4
-5.6
-4.8 -4.5
-3.1
-2.8
Romania
D
-8.9
-6.6
-5.3
-2.9
-2.2 -1.5
-1.6
-3.5
Slovakia
EA
-7.9
-7.5
-4.1
-4.2
-2.6 -2.9
-2.7
-2.5
Slovenia
EA
EDP
2015
-5.9
-5.6
-6.6
-4.0 -14.9 -4.9
-2.9
-2.8
Sweden
D
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
-0.9
-1.4 -1.9
-1.5
-1.0
Hungary
D
-4.6
-4.5
-5.5
-2.3
-2.5 -2.6
-2.5
-2.2
UK
O
EDP
2016/17
-10.8
-9.7
-7.6
-8.3
-5.7 -5.7
-4.5
-3.1
Italy
EA
-5.3
-4.2
-3.5
-3.0
-2.9 -3.0
-2.6
-2.0
Eurozone
N/A
N/A
N/A
-6.1
-6.1
-4.1
-3.6
-2.9 -2.4
-2.0
-1.7
EU 27
N/A
N/A
N/A
-6.8
-6.5
-4.5
-4.2
-3.2 -2.9
-2.5
-2.0
Japan
N/A
N/A
N/A
-8.8
-8.3
-8.8
-8.7
-8.5 -7.8
-7.1
-6.5
USA
N/A
N/A
N/A
-11.6
-12 -10.6
-8.9
-5.6 -4.9
-4.2
-3.8
Description: *EA – euro area, ERM II – ERM II participant; D – country benefitting from a derogation; O – country benefitting
from an opt-out clause,
**EDP – Recommendation of the Ecofin Council concerning the deadline for the elimination of excess deficit; ^- European
Commission forecast, Economic Forecast – Spring 2014, for USA and Japan – OECD;
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Eurostat and OECD data,
EUROPEAN COMMISIONEconomic Forecast – Spring 2015 as well as the Nominal Convergence Monitor for July 2014
published by the Ministry of Finance.
Analyses performed by the European Commission demonstrate that the main factor which contributed
towards a substantial increase in terms of deficit within the EU economy has been the economic crisis.
According to the analyses performed, the aggravation of the condition of public finance was attributable
to the crisis in more than 50%, with nearly 25% being attributable to discretionary, interventionist fiscal
policies of national governments.
At present (July 2015), 10 EU Member States, including 8 eurozone countries, is subject to the
excessive deficit procedure: Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia (with a reduction deadline by 2015), Spain,
Greece, Cyprus (by 2016), France (by 2017) and Finland (with respect to whom the procedure has just
50
been initiated), and 2 countries from outside the eurozone – Croatia (by 2016) and the United Kingdom
(by financial year 2016-17).
Fiscal deficits accumulate to form the national debt, which – when coupled with unfavourable trends –
leads to the constant increase thereof.
Chart 2 Public finance sector debt in the EU, the eurozone, the USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016
251.9
250.8
247
243.2
236.7
229.8
216
250
210.2
300
104.7
92.5
86.9
104.9
94
88
104.8
94.2
88.6
104.7
93.2
87.3
102.9
89.3
83.7
99.1
85.9
80.9
94.8
85.5
79.9
100
86.1
150
80
74.4
% GDP
200
50
0
2009
2010
2011
Eurozone
2012
2013
EU
Japan
2014
2015
2016
USA
The increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio in EU-27 in 2009 by 12.3 percentage points was the most
substantial increase during a single year in the history of the common European economy. In the two
following years (2010-2011) public debt increased even further. As a result, at the end of 2012, the level
of debt of the European economy has increased to 85.2% of GDP, compared to 58.7% in 2007. In 2013,
this variable stood at the level of 87.1%.
According to the analyses performed by the European Commission, the dynamics of the debt of the
European economy in relation to GDP in the years 2007-2011, i.e. during the transition from the period
of prosperity into the years of economic recession, was shaped mostly by the following factors: initial
balance, i.e. revenues less expenses, without factoring in the interest payable due to debt service, as
well as the accrual of interest on the new debt contracted for the purposes of repayment of interest
accrued on the previous debt.
The most recent global economic crisis has contributed towards the occurrence of significant
imbalances in global public finance. Interventionist actions performed by the governments of the USA,
Japan and the EU Member States have played a significant role in this regard. It needs to be pointed
out, however, that the scale of the present economic woes cannot be attributed to the crisis alone. This
is because the scope of the fiscal packages implemented has not been matched to the realities of the
modern global economy and the condition of the public finance sector in the period directly preceding
the onset of the economic crisis. In order to substantiate this view, one needs to refer to the key issue,
i.e. the issue of inter-periodical fiscal restrictions. Most developed countries had suffered from excessive
levels of deficit and public debt at the time when the recession began, i.e. following the period of
prosperity which had taken place in the middle of the first decade of the twenty first century.
As inter-periodical budget restrictions came to light, most economies were forced to make rapid fiscal
adjustments. In practice, this means that anti-cyclical fiscal policy needs to be replaced with a pro51
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
cyclical one, i.e. restricted. In the current situation, as the global crisis is not yet to be fully averted, this
may bring about new perils to the future economic growth. On the other hand, however, in a longer
perspective the absence of fiscal consolidation will make it impossible to return to the path of
sustainable growth, for example due to the tensions on the debt market. Therefore, it is necessary to
mention that the condition of global public finances will substantially determine the global economic
growth in the following years, both in a medium- and long-term perspective.
Table 20 Public finance sector debt in the EU, the USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016
General government sector debt expressed as a percentage of GDP
Country / group of
countries
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
79.7
82.4
82.1
81.5
80.9
84.5
87.0
85.8
Austria
99.2
99.5
102.0
103.8
104.4
106.5
106.5
106.4
Belgium
14.2
15.9
15.7
18.0
18.3
27.6
29.8
31.2
Bulgaria
48.0
57.0
63.7
69.2
80.6
85.0
90.5
93.9
Croatia
54.1
56.5
66.0
79.5
102.2
107.5
106.7
108.4
Cyprus
34.1
38.2
39.9
44.6
45.0
42.6
41.5
41.6
the Czech Republic
40.4
42.9
46.4
45.6
45.0
45.2
39.5
39.2
Denmark
7.0
6.5
6.0
9.7
10.1
10.6
10.3
9.8
Estonia
41.7
47.1
48.5
52.9
55.8
59.3
62.6
64.8
Finland
79.0
81.7
85.2
89.6
92.3
95.0
96.4
97.0
France
129.7
148.3
171.3
156.9
175.0
177.1
180.2
173.5
Greece
52.7
60.1
69.2
84.4
92.1
97.7
100.4
101.4
Spain
56.5
59.0
61.3
66.5
68.6
68.8
69.9
68.9
Ireland
62.3
87.4
111.2
121.7
123.2
109.7
107.1
103.8
Lithuania
29.0
36.2
37.2
39.8
38.8
40.9
41.7
37.3
Luxembourg
15.5
19.6
19.1
21.9
24.0
23.6
24.9
25.3
Latvia
36.4
46.8
42.7
40.9
38.2
40.0
37.3
40.4
Malta
67.8
67.6
69.7
67.4
69.2
68.0
67.2
65.4
the Netherlands
72.6
80.5
77.9
79.3
77.1
74.7
71.5
68.2
Germany
49.8
53.6
54.8
54.4
55.7
50.1
50.9
50.8
Poland
83.6
96.2
111.1
125.8
129.7
130.2
124.4
123.0
Portugal
23.2
29.9
34.2
37.3
38.0
39.8
40.1
42.4
Romania
36.0
40.9
43.4
52.1
54.6
53.6
53.4
53.5
Slovakia
34.5
38.2
46.5
53.7
70.3
80.9
81.5
81.7
Slovenia
40.3
36.8
36.2
36.6
38.7
43.9
44.2
43.4
Sweden
78.2
80.9
81
78.5
77.3
76.9
75.0
73.5
Hungary
65.8
76.4
81.8
85.8
87.3
89.4
89.9
90.1
the United Kingdom
112.5
115.3
116.4
123.1
128.5
132.1
133.1
130.6
Italy
80.0
85.5
85.9
89.3
93.2
94.2
94.0
92.5
Eurozone 16
74.4
79.9
80.9
83.7
87.3
88.6
88.0
86.9
EU 27
210.2
216.0
229.8
236.7
243.2
247.0
250.8
251.9
Japan
86.1
94.8
99.1
102.9
104.7
104.8
104.9
104.7
USA
* – forecast of the European Commission, Economic Forecast – Spring 2015, for the USA and Japan – OECD, IMF.
52
2. POLAND IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
2.1. Poland and the European Union3
Following a period of global recession, the European Union was forced to face new challenges which
threatened its economic stability. The main problem was the issue of public finance imbalance –
difficulties with balancing national budgets experienced by some eurozone countries constituted the
biggest threat to the stability of global economic growth in subsequent years.
Despite positive signs from the economy in 2013, results achieved in 2014 proved unsatisfactory.
Attitudes in most EU Member States, especially in eurozone countries, are dominated by deflation and
stagnation trends. Economic growth remains slow and uncertain, with many States still tackling the
consequences of the global economic crisis, as reflected, inter alia, in the low level of investments and
high unemployment. In this economic environment, Poland remains one of the few Member States
which continues to attain positive results in terms of economic growth rate.
2.1.1.
Gross Domestic Product
Despite the persistent fiscal problems affecting the eurozone, hindering the economic activities of
Germany – Poland’s main trading partner, in 2014 the Polish economy has managed to stay on the path
of economic development and attained a stable GDP growth at a level higher than in 2013. Against the
background of a GDP growth in the entire Community, estimated growth at 1.3% in 2014, Poland has
managed to attain a growth of 3.4%.
Chart 3 GDP changes in the EU in 2014 (YoY), expressed in percentages
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
2
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.8
% 6
4
-0.4
-0.4
0
-0.1
2
-2.3
-2
-6
Cyprus
Croatia
Italy
Finland
France
Austria
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
Belgium
Denmark
EU-28
Spain
Germany
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Sweden
Latvia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
United Kingdom
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Poland
Malta
Hungary
Ireland
-4
Source: Eurostat.
3
Information in this chapter are based on Eurostat data, unless specified otherwise.
53
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The main driver of Poland’s 3.4% economic growth in 2014 was internal demand (mainly due to higher
consumption and a dynamic recovery in investments), while external demand had a negative impact on
GDP growth. This has been the trend in the entire EU – a positive contribution of internal demand (with
a low level of investments) and a slightly negative contribution of net export. Internal demand increased
GDP by 1.5 p.p., whereas net export had an opposite effect (negative contribution in the amount of -0.2
percentage points).
2.1.2.
Industry
Negative trends with respect to industrial production of the EU from previous years have weakened in
2014 – the situation showed signs of moderate improvement. The uncertainty as to the direction and
pace of changes in the European economy which persisted throughout the entire year 2012 were hardly
conducive to restoring demand for local industrial production, but many countries still recorded a
substantial improvement of results in relation to the previous year. In effect, the output of the EU
industry grew by 1.2% in 2014 YoY (compared to a 0.5% decline in 2013). High figures were attained by
Hungary, Romania and Luxembourg, but the clear leader in growth was Ireland (22.9%) which following
the decline experienced in the years 2011-2013 and a deep recession in 2008-2010 stopped applying
the financial aid programme in 2013 and experienced a dynamic recovery of potential in industry in
2014.
Chart 4 Industrial output in the EU in 2014 (YoY), expressed in percentages
22.9
% 25
20
15
0.2
0.8
0.8
1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.4
3.4
3.7
5
6.2
6.3
7.1
10
5
-5
-10
Malta -5.7
Netherlands
-3
-2.3
Greece
Finland
-2
Sweden
-1.7
France
-1
Latvia
-0.9
Italy
-0.6
Cyprus
-0.6
Lithuania
Denmark
Austria
Belgium
EU-28
Germany
Spain
Croatia
United Kingdom
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Portugal
Estonia
Poland
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Romania
Hungary
Ireland
0
Source: Eurostat.
In Poland, the growth in industrial output sold in 2014 exceeded the EU average (with a 3.4% growth
rate YoY, compared to 2.3% growth achieved in 2013) and constituted the 7 th best result among all EU
Member States4.
2.1.3.
Construction
The excellent results attained by the construction industry in the years preceding the onset of recession,
arising from the high demand on the real estate market, have bolstered the positive expectations as to
the future performance on the market. It was this factor which determined the capital transfers from
service and industrial sectors into the construction sector. The situation changed radically in 2009, when
4
Working-day adjusted data.
54
the US real estate market crisis has, through a number of financial transmission channels, led to an
extensive adjustment on the global real estate markets. As a result, following the withdrawal of investors
from the contemplated projects and the decline in the pace of implementation of the ongoing ones, the
results attained by the construction sector in European economies has suffered a sharp downturn.
Chart 5 Construction sector output in the EU in 2014 (in relation to the previous year), expressed in
percentages
12
14.3
15.5
16.9
17.5
19.5
%
30
0.6
1.7
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.4
3.5
4.3
4.3
6.5
7.9
8.2
20
0
-30
-17.1
Cyprus
Portugal
Croatia
Italy
Romania
Slovakia
France
Estonia
Austria
Malta
Belgium
Finland
Bulgaria
Germany
EU-28
Denmark
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Czech Republic
Poland
United Kingdom
Latvia
Ireland
Sweden
Hungary
Greece
Lithuania
Spain
Slovenia
-20
-8.9
-7.2
-10
-7
-6.7
-4.2
-3.5
-2.6
-1.6
-0.9
-0.2
10
Source: Eurostat.
Year 2014 has brought about an improvement in the construction sector which has been experiencing a
decline in terms of the real value of its output from 2008 onwards. For the first time in seven years, the
construction output in the entire EU increased in relation to the previous year (by 2.9%), although the
results in specific countries vary considerably. Following a decrease experienced in the last two years
(by 10.3% in 2013), in 2014 the Polish construction sector attained a positive result – construction
output grew by 4.3%, mainly due to high growth in the first half of the year5.
2.1.4.
Labour market
Following a significant deterioration in 2012, the situation on the labour market in the EU began to
stabilise in 2013 and improved slightly in 2014. Forecasts for subsequent years indicate a further, albeit
slow, improvement of the situation. The projected unemployment rate for the EU (11.0% according to
the European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2013 was higher than the actual rate achieved in 2014
(10.2%).
The most extensive deterioration of the labour market situation has occurred on markets already
plagued by fiscal woes, i.e. Greece (where the unemployment rate amounted to 26.5% compared to
27.5% in 2013), Spain (24.5% compared to 26.1% in 2013), Cyprus (16.1% compared to 15.9% in
2013), Portugal (14.1% compared to 16.4% in 2013) and Croatia (17.3% compared to 17.3% in 2013).
In Poland, unemployment rate (according to LFS) in 2014 amounted to 9.0%, although it has been
systematically decreasing in subsequent quarters and reached the level of 8.1% in the last quarter of
2014.
5
Working-day adjusted data.
55
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
2.1.5.
Inflation
By stimulating aversion to risk, the global financial crisis significantly reduced the demand for money.
Coupled with the decline in consumption, this led to a relatively insignificant (1.0%) increase in the
prices of goods and services in the European Union in the year 2009. In 2010, this trend was reversed.
The growing capital inflow to the developing economies (including Poland), the growing consumer
demand and the global prices of foodstuffs and energy carriers were reflected in the growth of inflation
(HICP) in the European Union (an increase to a level of 2.1%). In 2011, the prices in the European
Union rose by 3.1%. The growth of prices slowed down in subsequent years – to 2.6% in 2012 and
1.5% in 2013.
In relation to low EU GDP growth rate in 2014 and, most of all, dropping prices of energy raw materials
(mainly crude oil), inflation (HICP) in the European Community increased slower than expected, as a
result of which prices (HICP) grew by 0.6% in the analysed period. Over the course of the entire year,
the increase in prices was substantially slowing down; in December, the inflation index for the entire EU
dropped below zero (to -0.6%), while many Member States were experiencing deflation for several
months. The inflation index for Poland attained the annual average value of 0.1%. The highest index in
the entire EU (1.5%) was recorded in Austria and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, in many
countries prices decreased – in Bulgaria by 1.6%, in Greece by 1.4%, in Cyprus by 0.3%, in Portugal by
0.2%, and in Slovakia by 0.1%. In Hungary, prices remained unchanged.
It is estimated that low prices of raw materials and the still limited economic activity in many EU
countries will result in inflation remaining at a low level also in 2015. The depreciation of euro in relation
to, inter alia, the introduction of the quantitative easing programme by the European Central Bank may
have an opposite effect. In the 1st quarter prices dropped by 0.3% YoY in the entire EU, while only 6
countries recorded a positive price index (0.1% in Latvia and the United Kingdom, 0.5% in Romania,
0.6% in Austria, Sweden and Malta).
2.2. Economic governance in the European Union
Since the global economic crisis experienced at the end of the first decade of the 21 st century, the
system of economic governance of the European Union is constantly evolving and undergoing attempts
at reinforcement. The crisis also revealed not only the existence of deep imbalances in public finances
of certain eurozone countries, but also the existence of imbalances and dysfunctions in other areas of
economic life that became the direct reason for the crisis and its severity. Therefore, in order to prevent
the occurrence of crisis-related phenomena in the future, the EU has initiated a process aimed at
extending the range of available economic governance instruments beyond those available prior to the
crisis under the Stability and Growth Pact.
An important step in this process was the adoption by the EU of two legislative packages called the "sixpack" and "two-pack". These regulations not only reinforced the preventive and corrective function of
the Stability and Growth Pact, but additionally introduced the prevention and correction of excessive
macroeconomic (off-budget) imbalances as well as budget and economic policy supervision
mechanisms for economically unstable countries or those at risk of economic instability.
The next step was the communication published by the European Commission in January 2015, in
which the Commission presented guidelines concerning the optimal use of flexibility provided for in
applicable provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. These guidelines are meant to strengthen the
56
ties between structural reforms, investments and responsible budget policy. The EC declared, among
others, that national contributions to the European Fund for Strategic Investments will not be taken into
consideration in the determination of the level of budgetary adjustment within the framework of the
preventive or corrective part of the Stability and Growth Pact. In addition, on certain conditions, Member
States subject to the preventive part of the Stability and Growth Pact will be able to – for the purpose of
facilitating investments or structural reforms – temporarily derogate from pursuing their medium-term
budgetary target or the path of budgetary adjustment leading to the achievement of this target.
New instruments being introduced are, where possible, integrated with the European Semester that was
initially designed as a special mechanism for coordinating and monitoring the implementation of the
basic social and economic programme of the EU, that is the Europe 2020 strategy adopted by the
European Council on 17th of June 2010.
Four years after its formal implementation in 2011, the European Semester is comprised of the following
basic stages of the annual cycle of EU economic policy coordination:
 November: the publication by the European Commission (EC) of the Annual Growth Survey and
accompanying documents, including the Alert Mechanism Report on macroeconomic
imbalances and draft Joint Employment Report;
 February: The publication by the Commission of country reports which present, in integrated
form, the results of in-depth reviews of the degree of macroeconomic risk in reference to
previously selected Member States, as well as assessments of the budgetary situation and
implementation of country-specific recommendations by Member States for all EU Member
States.
 March: The spring European Council summit during which Member States define challenges
faced by the EU on the basis of the Annual Growth Survey and formulate the European Council
guidelines based thereon;
 April: The Member States submit updated National Reform Programmes and Stability and
Convergence Programmes, which take into account, inter alia, the aforementioned European
Council guidelines;
 May: Assessment of the above documents by the Commission and formulation of countryspecific recommendations (CSR);
 June: Discussion on draft recommendations in the ECOFIN and EPSCO formations of the
Council of the European Union and the political approval thereof by the European Council;
 July: formal approval by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) of the
recommendations on National Reform Programmes, containing the opinion of the Council on
the Stability and Convergence Programmes presented by the Member States.
In accordance with the principles defined in the “six-pack”, together with the publication of the Annual
Growth Survey 2015 (AGS 2015) in November 2014, the European Commission presented the Alert
Mechanism Report 2015 (AMR 2015), that is a report presented as part of the alert mechanism of the
macroeconomic imbalance procedure. It serves as a tool for a preliminary diagnosis based on the table
of indicators with threshold values provided and a set of additional indicators. On the basis of this
diagnosis, the Commission assessed that despite the progress already made in eliminating external and
internal economic imbalances, they still remain a cause for concern and require undertaking decisive,
complex and coordinated political action. All the more so as the slow pace of economic growth and low
inflation hinder the narrowing of imbalances. The Commission pointed to the relation between low level
of economic activity in the entire EU and asymmetric, as has been the case so far, nature of restoring
balance and weak internal demand in creditor countries which maintain high surpluses on the current
account.
57
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The Commission decided to conduct a closer macroeconomic analysis (in-depth review, IDR) in relation
to 16 Member States. These are mainly countries which underwent such review in the previous
supervision cycle as well (Croatia, Italy, Slovenia, Ireland, Spain, France, Hungary, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, the United Kingdom). Portugal and Romania were
included in the in-depth review for the first time. As opposed to the previous year, an additional analysis
was not conducted with respect to Denmark, Malta and Luxembourg, adding them to Austria, Estonia,
Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – as countries for which the preliminary
analysis does not indicate macroeconomic imbalances. Due to the application of adjustment and
financial aid programmes, Greece and Cyprus were subject to an assessment in terms of the existence
of imbalances within the framework of these programmes.
As in the previous cycles, Poland was not qualified among the group of countries subject to an in-depth
review in the context of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure. The European Commission indicated
that the values of two indicators for Poland exceeded the prudential thresholds – net international
investment position and unemployment rate. The Commission pointed out that despite the high net
international investment position in 2013 (-68% of GDP, with a threshold value set at -35%), Poland's
net foreign debt is much lower due to the scale of inflow of direct foreign investments. The Commission
noted that even though the unemployment rate achieved the threshold value (10%) in 2013, the latest
data indicate a downward trend. It was also pointed out that the deficit on the current account has
decreased in relation to previous year and did not exceed the threshold value for the first time since
2007. In this situation, the Commission found that the above-mentioned challenges do not constitute an
imbalance within the context of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure.
Box 1 Results of in-depth reviews
The results of in-depth reviews conducted for 16 previously selected countries were presented by the
Commission in country reports published on 26th of February 2015. The in-depth review confirmed the existence
of imbalances in all 16 countries. In particular:
 Croatia, Bulgaria, France, Italy and Portugal were deemed as countries in which there is an excessive
imbalance that requires decisive political actions and separate monitoring;
 Ireland, Spain and Slovenia were deemed as countries in which there is an imbalance that requires
decisive political actions and separate monitoring;
 Germany and Hungary were deemed as countries in which there is an imbalance that requires decisive
political actions and monitoring;
 Belgium, the Netherlands, Romania, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom were deemed as
countries in which there is an imbalance that requires decisive political actions and monitoring.
In comparison to the results of an in-depth review from the previous year, this means that the first group of
countries (with the largest scale of imbalances and related risks) comprised of Croatia and Italy was extended to
include Bulgaria, France and Portugal.
As regards Croatia – in the context of slow growth, delays in enterprise restructuring and a bad situation on the
labour market, the Commission decided that the threats resulting from low competitiveness, large foreign debt
and growing public debt in relation to weak management in the public sector have grown considerably.
As regards Italy – in the context of protracted weak growth and persistently low efficiency, the Commission
pointed to increased risks related to very high public debt and low cost and non-cost competitiveness. Due to the
size of Italian economy, the Commission emphasized the possible negative side effects of this situation for the
economic and monetary union.
As regards Bulgaria, classified in the fourth group in the previous year, the Commission pointed out the
turbulence in the banking sector, observed in 2014, which cause concern as to the questionable national
practices of banks that may potentially have serious consequences for the financial sector and overall
macroeconomic stability. In addition, the Commission indicated the still negative, but improving external financial
position, indebtedness of enterprises and weak labour market adjustment, which pose a macroeconomic risk
58
and require particular attention.
As regards France, classified in the second group in the previous year, the Commission decided that the risks
related to the deterioration of cost and non-cost competitiveness as well as high and growing level of debt, in
particular public debt, have grown considerably. In the Commission's opinion, it is the consequence, inter alia, of
insufficient political actions necessary to limit the risk of negative consequences not only for the French
economy, but given its size also negative side effects for the economic and monetary union.
As regards Portugal, the Commission decided that despite the substantial progress achieved during the
implementation of the economic adjustment programme which ended in 2014, there are still risks connected with
the high level of debt, both internal and external. The high pressure on the reduction of debt clashes with the
context of low economic growth, high unemployment and low inflation.
As regards Slovenia, classified in the first group in the previous year, the Commission assessed that wideranging measures to restore balance are being implemented, which combined with the improvement in export
results and growth conditions reduces the risk, in particular with regard to external balance. Therefore,
imbalances are no longer considered to be excessive. Nevertheless, risks arising from weak corporate
governance, large share of state property, persisting high debt-to-enterprise assets ratio, and public debt growth
require particular attention.
The second group was comprised of Ireland and Spain, as was the case in the previous year. As regards
Ireland, the Commission assessed that despite a clear improvement of economic perspectives, the risk
connected with the high level of debt in the private and public sector persists. Other challenges in the financial
sector, including, in particular, in reference to the profitability of banks, and the situation on the labour market
characterised by high structural unemployment still require special attention. As regards Spain, the Commission
decided that despite a slight improvement in the balance on current account, the risks connected with the high
level of debt, strongly negative net international investment position and high unemployment still require
particular attention.
The Commission placed Germany (classified in the fourth group in the previous year) into the third group,
comprising only Hungary in the previous year. In the Commission's opinion, despite slight progress in balancing
the balance of payments, Hungary is still subject to risks arising from the strongly negative net international
investment position, high level of public debt, high regulatory burdens in the financial sector and high level of atrisk loans. As regards Germany, the Commission decided that political response so far was inadequate and risks
related to the persisting insufficient level of private and public investments have increased, which contributes to
a very high surplus on the current account. Due to the size of German economy, it is a source of negative sideeffects for the economic and monetary union.
The fourth group was extended to include Romania, where as a consequence of the implementation of the
financial aid programme agreed with the EU and IMF external and internal imbalances were substantially
reduced, but particular attention must still be paid to the relatively high negative net international investment
position and weak medium-term export capacity.
In draft recommendations for Member States, presented on 13 th of May 2015 in accordance with the
European Semester cycle, the Commission decided that Croatia and France, in particular, require a
strong stimulus to implement reforms aimed at correcting the excessive macroeconomic imbalances. In
light of political obligations presented by both countries in programme documents (National Reform
Programmes as well as Stability and Convergence Programmes), the Commission found that there is no
need to strengthen the procedure concerning macroeconomic imbalances. At the same time, the
Commission declared that the process of implementing reforms in five Member States characterised by
excessive imbalances will be subject to separate monitoring.
A very important element of economic governance in the EU became the so-called banking union which
includes regulations in three areas: single supervisory mechanism (SSM), single deposit guarantee
scheme, single resolution mechanism (SRM). A relevant legislation on the EU level has already been
adopted in reference to the SSM and SRM in the previous years; works on the implementation of those
regulations were under way in 2014 and 2015. Those works included, in particular, the process of
59
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
ratification of the international agreement executed on 21st of May 2014 by Member States (except for
the United Kingdom and Sweden), regulating the principles for the single resolution fund (SRF). The
agreement supplements the regulation establishing the SRM. The agreement will enter into force upon
its ratification by signatory states participating in the SSM and SRM and representing at least 90% of all
votes in the Council of the EU held by all Member States participating in the SSM and SRM. The issue
concerning the ratification of the agreement by Poland is dependent upon the decision regarding
accession to the banking union, which will take place upon the adoption of the single currency at the
latest.
On 18th of February 2015, the Commission published the Green Paper on Building the Capital Markets
Union. Its purpose is to initiate the debate on measures necessary to establish a single capital market
for all Member States. An impulse to undertake this subject are the effects of the global financial crisis
experienced by the European economy, low value of capital flows between Member States (compared
to the period before the crisis), stricter terms and conditions applied by banks with respect to granting
loans to businesses and relatively poorly developed financing of enterprises in Europe (compared to
other parts of the world), based on the capital market.
Another step in actions aimed at strengthening the economic governance in the EU was the so-called
Five Presidents' Report on Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union, published on 22nd of
June 2015 by five presidents (of the European Commission, the Euro Summit, the Eurogroup, the
European Parliament, and the European Central Bank).
Box 2 Five Presidents' Report
The report presents the directions of action towards achieving progress in four areas – in the economic,
financial, fiscal and political union. The report also proposes a roadmap towards the achievement of this goal.
The first stage (from 1st of July 2015 to 30th of June 2017) will focus on maximising the utilisation of existing
instruments and applicable treaties to improve competitiveness and structural convergence, pursuing a
responsible budget policy on a national and eurozone level, completing the establishment of a financial union
and improving democratic accountability. The report proposes, inter alia, the establishment of a euro area
system of competitiveness authorities, launching a European deposit guarantee scheme, establishment of the
European Fiscal Board, reinforcing the steer of the Euro Group and ensuring a consolidated external
representation of the Economic and Monetary Union.
The second stage (from 1st of July 2017 until the end of 2025) will focus on undertaking more long-term
measures aimed at making the convergence process more binding, e.g. by establishing a set of formal, jointly
agreed convergence indicators, and by setting up a euro area treasury authority. Measures proposed as part of
the second stage include, inter alia, the establishment of a single macroeconomic stabilisation mechanism and
making the position of President of the Eurogroup a function to be held full-time.
2.3. The Europe 2020 strategy and the National Reform
Programme
For five years, the primary instrument for the coordination of economic policy in the European Union has
been the Europe 2020 strategy, adopted by the European Council on 17 th of June 2010. Its
implementation and monitoring, under the joint responsibility of the EU and its Member States, is
effected within the framework of the European Semester, formally implemented at the beginning of
2011. At the level of Member States, the strategy is implemented through National Reform
Programmes.
60
The Polish National Reform Programme for the implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy (NRP) was
adopted by the Council of Ministers on 26th of April 2011. The NRP is a document which shows how
Poland will, in response to the challenges it shall face and by implementing its development objectives,
contribute to the implementation of priorities indicated in the Europe 2020 strategy, i.e.:
 development of a knowledge and innovation-based economy (smart growth);
 promotion of a sustainable economy with a smaller environmental footprint and greater
resource efficiency which nevertheless retains a high degree of competitiveness (sustainable
growth);
 reinforcement of an economically, socially and territorially cohesive economy characterised by a
high employment level (inclusive growth).
In its NRP, Poland has undertaken to achieve the following results with respect to the five flagship
objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy by 2020:
 employment rate of 71% among people aged 20-64;
 investment in research and development (R&D) amounting to 1.7% of GDP;
 decrease of primary energy consumption to approximately 96 Mtoe;
 reduction of the percentage of early school leavers to 4.5% and increase (to 45%) of the
percentage of persons with tertiary education among those aged 30-34;
 reduction by 1.5 million of the number of people at risk of poverty and/or economic deprivation
and/or living in households with no employed persons or low work intensity.
In March 2014, the Commission initiated the medium-term review of the Europe 2020 strategy. When
reviewing the implementation of the strategy, it is necessary to note that in the context of economic
crisis, progress in the implementation of Europe 2020 strategy targets on the EU level varied. The crisis
delayed the progress, and in some countries even caused regress, in the achievement of target values
concerning growth in employment and reduction of poverty. The European Commission deemed climate
change and energy targets possible to achieve by 2020. The same applied to education targets. The EU
grew distant from the achievement of the poverty and social exclusion target, as the number of people
at risk of poverty and social exclusion has increased.
Poland places roughly in the middle among all Member States and still has a chance to achieve targets
adopted in the National Reform Programme for the Implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy. As
opposed to the Union-wide trend, Poland recorded an improvement with respect to targets concerning
employment as well as poverty and social exclusion. The situation with respect to the five headline
targets, taken individually, presents as follows:
1. The employment rate increased from 64.3% in 2010 to 66.5% in 2014. However, the
achievement of the pursued target requires the continuation of actions towards growth in the
employment of persons in a disadvantaged position on the labour market (women, young
people and the elderly).
2. The target in the scope of counteracting poverty was – the number of people at risk of poverty
and social exclusion between 2008 (reference year for this target) and 2013 decreased by
approximately 1.7 million. A significant improvement in the overall poverty rate in Poland stems
primarily from the reduction of the number of people suffering from material deprivation (by
nearly 2.2 million in relation to 2008). Despite achieving the target, challenges in the area of
counteracting poverty and social exclusion remain valid, as evidenced, inter alia, by the
increase in the extreme poverty rate measured in accordance with the national methodology.
3. National education targets were set at a more ambitious level than those specified in the
Europe 2020 strategy in this regard. The percentage of early school leavers in Poland remains
at a significantly below the target defined for the EU (reduction to 10%), amounting to 5.4% in
61
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
2014. The percentage of people aged 30-34 with tertiary education amounted to 42.1% in 2014
and it is possible to achieve a better result by 2020 than initially assumed.
4. Expenditure on R&D improved slightly between 2010 and 2013 – from 0.72% to 0.87% of GDP.
A significant growth in the rate of expenditure on R&D was first observed in 2007, mainly due to
the increase in government and higher education sector spending. A substantial growth in
enterprise sector spending has been observed in recent years (spending amounted to: 0.23% of
GDP in 2011, 0.33% of GDP in 2012, and 0.38% of GDP in 2012). Thereby, the share of
enterprises sector expenditure in overall expenditure on R&D is increasing. Despite an
improved situation in this regard, increase in enterprise sector spending remains a key factor
with respect to the achievement of the national target.
5. As regards energy targets, a reduction of primary energy consumption to approximately 96
Mtoe by 2020 has been declared in the NRP. In consequence of faster growth of GDP than
energy consumption, a decline in the primary and final energy intensity has been observed. In
the first half of the previous decade, energy intensity decreased at a rate of 2% per annum,
while in the years 2006-2009 this value improved by more than 5% for primary energy intensity
and by nearly 4% for final energy intensity. Year 2010 was an exception, as the energy intensity
of Polish economy increased for the first time since 1993. Between 2010 and 2012, primary
energy consumption was reduced from 96 Mtoe to 93.3 Mtoe.
This allows to conclude that, as far as Poland is concerned, the achievement of all national targets by
2020 is an ambitious task (in particular as regards targets concerning employment and expenditure on
R&D), but one that is possible to achieve.
The publishing of the Annual Growth Survey 2015 (AGS 2015) on 28th of November 2014 formally
launched the fifth consecutive cycle of the European Semester. In the AGS 2015, the Commission
proposed to base the EU economic and social policy for 2015 on three main pillars:
 coordinated actions stimulating investment growth (together with a special investment plan for
Europe);
 a renewed obligation to introduce structural reforms (especially in such areas as labour
markets, services, energy, telecommunication and digital economy, regulatory environment of
enterprises);
 a responsible budget policy (ensuring long-term control over the level of deficit and debt, while
at the same time improving the quality of public finances so that they facilitate investments and
growth).
In accordance with the rhythm of the European Semester, on 28th of April 2015, the Council of Ministers
adopted a document titled the National Reform Programme for the Implementation of the Europe 2020
Strategy. Update 2015/2016 (NRP 2014/2015). It is the fourth annual update of the NRP adopted in
2011. The priority actions defined therein remain valid, but subsequent updates group those actions
according to five national objectives, supplemented by actions which contribute to the implementation of
the recommendations of the Council of the EU formulated in the European Semester cycle, exceeding
beyond those objectives. The list of actions is verified during each update of NRP - actions implemented
are removed, new implementation stages for the following years are indicated for the continued actions
and the document is supplemented with new actions. During the preparation of the NRP 2015/2016, the
role of the NRP in the mechanisms for the implementation of EU cohesion policy in the new 2014-2020
financial perspective was also taken into account. On the one hand, funds provided under the cohesion
policy constitute an important source of financing for tasks provided for in the NRP. On the other hand,
the monitoring of the NRP implementation in line with the adopted regulations is meant to direct the
cohesion policy towards the implementation of Europe 2020 strategy.
62
The most significant activities performed in 2014 and in the first half of 2015 for the purposes of
implementation of the reforms provided for in the NRP pertained, inter alia, to the following issues:
1. Labour market policy reform. The amendment of the Act on the Promotion of Employment and
Labour Market Institutions entered into force on 27 th of May 2014. The amendment introduced
solutions aiming, inter alia, at improving the quality and efficiency of services provided by
employment offices as well as new instruments addressed to the most vulnerable groups on the
labour market, including young people aged 30 or under and individuals aged 50+. By way of
this amendment the period within which public employment services are under an obligation to
present job offers or perform activities pertaining to professional activation with respect to
persons aged 25 and under was shortened from 6 to 4 months. The amendment also
introduced new labour market policy tools directed at young people, including training,
internship and employment vouchers as well as vouchers for job-seekers who change their
place of residence in order to obtain a job, telework grants, professional activation allowances,
tripartite training agreements). Employers were provided an opportunity to co-finance a part of
the remuneration of the referred unemployed person over the age of 50 from the funds of the
Labour Fund.
2. Supporting the innovative activity of enterprises. The terms and conditions of such support were
defined in the Enterprises Development Programme until 2020 (EDP) adopted by the Council of
Ministers on 8th of April 2014 and a vast majority of instruments was included in the operational
programmes. Estimated allocation of funds within the framework of the Enterprises
Development Programme for years 2014-2020 amounts to approximately PLN 25.5 billion. The
EDP also comprises a document titled "National Smart Specialisation", constituting an appendix
thereto. The amendment to the Act on the Principles of Financing Science, which introduces,
inter alia, a more efficient financing of the strategic research infrastructure, the concentration
and more efficient spending of funds earmarked for the promotion of science and the
streamlining of procedures pertaining to the financing of science. The National Centre for
Research and Development will continue the implementation of programmes related to applied
research and development works, including sectoral programmes stimulating cooperation
between industry and science sector. The “Innovation Voucher” and “Support Under Large
Innovation Voucher” programmes were implemented, supporting the cooperation of microenterprises and small enterprises with scientific entities.
3. The reduction of primary energy consumption in the economy. On 20 th of February 2015, the
Polish Sejm [the Lower House of the Polish Parliament] adopted the Act on Renewable Energy
Sources aimed, inter alia, at increasing the energy security and environmental protection. The
Act on the Energy Performance of Buildings defining the principles of preparing certificates of
energy performance and inspection of heating and cooling systems in the buildings, adopted in
the previous year, entered into force on 9th of March 2015. Furthermore, the central register of
energy performance was launched. The process of liberalisation of the Polish natural gas
market was in progress. Pursuant to the provisions of the Act - Energy Law, the obligation of
public sale of natural gas on the exchange increased since 1st of January 2015 to 55% of
natural gas introduced in a given year to the transmission grid. In addition, actions aimed at
supporting investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources were performed on
an ongoing basis within the framework of programmes implemented by the National Fund of
Environmental Protection and Water Management.
4. The implementation of higher education reform. The amendment of the Act – Law on Higher
Education, constituting a continuation of the reform from 2011, entered into force on 1st of
October 2014. The amended Act stipulates, among other things: a clear division of institution of
higher learning into vocational institutions (providing practical education, developing practical
skills) and into academic institutions (obliged to conduct academic research). In the case of
practical studies, half of the educational programme will have to be implemented through
63
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
workshops focusing on the students’ practical skills, which should be conducted by persons
possessing vocational experience. The amendment also introduced dual studies and increased
the employers' involvement in developing education programmes and in conducting courses.
Moreover, central monitoring of professional careers of graduates, using data collected by the
Social Insurance Institution, was introduced.
5. The reduction of poverty and social exclusion. On 12 th of August 2014, the Council of Ministers
adopted the National Programme Against Poverty and Social Exclusion 2020. A New
Dimension of Active Integration, a document aimed at the permanent reduction of the number of
people at risk of poverty and social exclusion. On 12 th of August 2014, a key programme for the
development of the social economy sector has been adopted, i.e. the “National Programme for
Development of Social Economy” which specifies the main directions of public support aimed at
creating the best conditions for development of social economy and social enterprises in
Poland. The Programme provides for creating and maintaining 35 thousand jobs in social
enterprises. As a result of the amendment of the Act on Personal Income Tax, from 1st of
January 2015 persons with low income whose tax due is lower than the full amount of child tax
credit to be deducted have the right to receive the amount of the unused tax credit. Additionally,
tax credit amounts for the third and each subsequent child have been increased by 20% as
compared to previously applicable amounts. The Act on the Big Family Card, which entered into
force as of 1st of January 2015, has elevated the government programme for multi-child
families, implemented since 2014, to the status of a higher-order legal act.
6. The improvement of the business environment. The amendment of the Accounting Act,
implementing the option from the Accounting Directive (2013/34/EU) enabling the separation of
a group of micro-enterprises and limitation of their reporting obligations to the minimum
specified in this directive, entered into force on 5th of September 2014. The amendment of the
Act on the National Court Register entered into force on 1st of December 2014. As a result of
amendments introduced, the waiting period for the commencement of activity (including
business activity) by an entity was shortened from approximately 25 to 7 days. The Act of 7th of
November 2014 to facilitate the exercise of economic activity entered into force on 1st of
January 2015. The amendments are a continuation of previous three deregulatory initiatives.
Amendments introduced by the Act include facilitations in customs clearance in sea ports, tax
law and restrictions on information obligations.
7. The simplification of legal procedures and requirements concerning building permits. In 2014,
government and parliamentary works were under way on the amendment of the Act Construction Law, which was adopted on 20th of February 2015. The fundamental objective of
the amendment is the simplification and shortening of the construction process for most
investments implemented on the basis of construction law. Moreover, a part of obligations
which until now burdened the investor has been waived, deadlines within which public
administration must undertake action have been shortened and formalities regarding the
building permit design have been simplified.
Box 3 Recommendations of the Council of the EU for Polish economic policy
On 13th of May 2015, the European Commission announced a communication entitled “2014 European
Semester: Country-Specific Recommendations” COM(2015) 250, which was accompanied by draft opinions and
recommendations of the Council for individual Member States concerning the update of National Reform
Programmes and the Stability and Convergence Programmes presented by these states in April 2015. Draft
recommendations were then examined by the formations of the Council of the EU (ECOFIN and EPSCO).
Following their political acceptance by the European Council on 26th of June 2015, the recommendations were
formally adopted by the ECOFIN Council on 14th of July, in accordance with the Treaty on the Functioning of the
European Union.
After the Commission had conducted an evaluation of the NRP 2014/2015 and after the Convergence
64
Programme had been updated, the draft recommendations of the Council for Poland, presented by the EC,
stated that Poland had made some progress in terms of the implementation of recommendations from 2014. In
particular, the Commission stated that it can be said that the excessive deficit was corrected already in 2014, i.e.
one year prior to the designated deadline, whereby the Commission forecasts for 2015-2016 confirm the
sustainability of this correction. Therefore, together with draft recommendations the Commission presented a
draft decision of the Council of the EU on the abrogation of the excessive deficit procedure with respect to
Poland, the final version of which was adopted by the ECOFIN Council on 19th of June 2015.
In conclusion, the Commission assessed that Poland generally satisfies the condition of the Stability and Growth
Pact, but recommended undertaking actions aimed at increasing tax revenues by limiting the excessive – in the
Commission's opinion – application of reduced VAT rates and improving the operation of the tax administration.
In the Commission's opinion, Poland's budgetary framework would benefit from establishing an independent
body tasked with performing ex-ante and ex-post assessments of compliance with fiscal regulations, assessing
macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts and analysing the long-term stability of public finances.
In reference to the modification of the systemic pension reform introduced in 1999, performed at the end of
2013, the Commission assessed that it bears a certain risk for Polish public finances in the long-term
perspective, as short-term benefits in the form of higher revenues from social insurance contributions and lower
interest payments will be offset in the future by higher payments of pension benefits from the public pension
pillar. The Commission also once again negatively assessed the preferential social security schemes for farmers
and miners, which in its opinion still hinder the professional mobility of its beneficiaries and constitute a serious
burden for public finance. Due to the fact that there is no possibility of planned exclusion of farmers achieving
high income from the Agricultural Insurance Fund (KRUS), the system is susceptible to abuses. In the
Commission's opinion, the establishment of the system for estimating and registering the income of farmers
would constitute the first necessary step towards the Agricultural Insurance Fund reform.
The Commission pointed out that labour market segmentation in Poland still persists. The percentage of people
employed for a definite period of time is the highest in the EU, the percentage of people transitioning from
employment for a definite period of time to employment for an indefinite period of time is low, and wage
disproportions are the highest in the EU. Apart from the above, there is an excessive application of civil law
contracts over employment contracts specified in the Labour Code. In the Commission's opinion, entrepreneurs
are inclined to offer civil law contracts due to burdens imposed on employers under the Labour Code, inflexible
regulation regarding the termination of employment and the possibility of lowering social insurance contributions
through the use of such contracts. This leads to the deterioration of the quality of employment available on the
labour market, especially for young people.
As regards infrastructure, the Commission pointed out the difficult situation of the railway sector, the
development of which is hindered by high fees for access to railway tracks, insufficient financing, as well as
unfavourable regulatory and administrative environment. As a result, the procedures for planning and
implementing investment projects in this sector are usually time-consuming and cumbersome.
In light of the above assessments, the recommendations state that, in the years 2015-2016, Poland needs to
place a particular emphasis on actions aimed at:
1. After the adjustment of excessive deficit – the achievement of a budgetary adjustment at the level of
0.5% of GDP both in 2015 and 2016, which contributes to the achievement of the medium-term
budgetary objective. The establishment of an independent fiscal council. The extension of the tax base,
in particular by limiting the application of an advanced system of reduced VAT rates.
2. The commencement of the process of adjusting pension systems for farmers and miners to pension
systems intended for other professional groups, and adoption of the schedule of gradual actions leading
to the complete adjustment of those systems; the establishment of the system for estimating and
registering the income of farmers.
3. The adoption of actions aimed at limiting the excessive use of contracts for a definite period of time and
civil law contracts on the labour market.
4. The removal of barriers hindering railway investment projects.
65
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
2.4. Free movement of goods and services
The free movement of goods with respect to groups of products which are considered to be high risk
goods (such as medications, foodstuffs, chemicals, toys, machinery, medical devices, electrical
appliances, measuring equipment etc.) takes place on the basis of legal regulations harmonized at the
EU level (i.e. applicable in the entire EU territory). These requirements pertain to technical regulations
related, inter alia, to safety, design, manufacturing process and the introduction of products to the
market (the so-called harmonized legislation). The harmonization of regulations at the European level
guarantees both the freedom of trade in industrial products on the EU market and a high level of safety
for consumers and users of these products.
Within those sectors in which harmonization has not yet been implemented, trading takes place on the
basis of the principle of mutual recognition: products manufactured or marketed in compliance with
applicable laws in one EU Member State may, in principle, be introduced to trading in another EU
Member State, even if they do not fully comply with the technical regulations in force in that Member
State, e.g. those pertaining to shape, size, weight or composition. This means that EU entrepreneurs
may pursue business activities in the entire EU, provided that their products have been manufactured
and marketed in accordance with the regulations applicable in their own country.
In order to facilitate the free movement of goods in a non-harmonized area (e.g. with regard to products
which are not covered by detailed sector-wide EU legislation – i.e. furniture, bicycles, stationery, small
utility products etc.), a network of Product Contact Points, operating in every EU Member State, has
been set up.
The Polish Product Contact Point (PCP)6 is one of the Contact Points operating on the basis of
Regulation (EC) No 764/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 th of July 2008 laying
down procedures relating to the application of certain national technical rules to products lawfully
marketed in another Member State. The objective of PCPs is to provide support to both Polish and
foreign natural persons pursuing business activities, companies as well as institutions with respect to
obtaining information concerning legal regulations pertaining to the introduction to the Polish market of
products which are not covered by harmonized legal requirements on the EU level and which originate
from other EU Member States. PCPs also provide contact information of institutions responsible for the
implementation of technical regulations for a given group of products as well as information pertaining to
the application of the principle of mutual recognition.
Ever since its establishment on 13th of May 2009, the number of queries submitted to the Polish Product
Contact Point has remained at a similar level – approx. 70-100 queries a year. The PCP received 52
queries in 2014 and another 20 queries in the period until 23rd of June 2015.
Until the middle of 2013, queries received by the Polish Product Contact Point pertained mostly to
construction products. The situation changed as of 1st of July 2013 in relation to the entry into force of
the Regulation No. 305/2011 providing for the establishment of separate Construction Product Contact
Points in all countries (in the case of Poland – operated by the General Office of Building Control). On
the other hand, the number of queries concerning foodstuffs, consumer products and those products
that cannot be unambiguously assigned to specific categories has increased substantially.
Product Contact Point receives and responds to queries by e-mail ([email protected]). The European Affairs Department of
the Ministry of Economy, in cooperation with subject experts from other ministries provide support for Polish PCP.
6
66
For a long period of time, most of the queries originated from Polish entrepreneurs who cooperate with
trading partners from other EU Member States and pertained, in particular, to products from the closest
states, in geographic terms, i.e. Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark. In 2014, the
percentage of queries received from foreign entities increased significantly and constituted
approximately 42% of all submitted queries.
Chart 6 Number and percentage of queries submitted in 2014, categorised according to their subject
matter
construction works
consumer products
food products
fertilisers
chemicals
other questions
various products
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Source: A study by the European Affairs Department of the Ministry of Economy, on the basis of the analysis of cases
submitted to the Product Contact Point.
Box 4 The SOLVIT out-of-court dispute resolution network
SOLVIT is a free and informal system that helps citizens and entrepreneurs in resolving specific cross-border
issues – disputes with the public administration of another EU Member State (and Norway, Lichtenstein and
Iceland) occurring in relation to the improper application of the provisions of EU law. The system operates on the
basis of a recommendation concerning the principles regulating SOLVIT, applicable since 1 st of October 2013.
The SOLVIT network commenced its operation in July 2002. The system operates on the basis of a network of
SOLVIT Centres established within domestic administration structures and is supervised by the European
Commission7.
The Polish SOLVIT Centre handles the cases of Polish citizens and entrepreneurs against offices in other
Member States. The main issues handled by the Polish SOLVIT Centre include:
 social security;
 residence permits;
 recognition of professional qualifications;
 taxation;
 border and traffic controls, and
 registration of motor vehicles.
The number of requests submitted to the Polish SOLVIT Centre is systematically increasing, while the
percentage of resolved cases remains high. According to the European Commission data, the ratio of cases
resolved by the Polish SOLVIT Centre attained a very high level of 96% in 2014.
Apart from the performance of its main task, i.e. resolving the problems of citizens and entrepreneurs (within the
framework of SOLVIT criteria), the Polish SOLVIT Centre also conducts informational and promotional actions.
In May 2014, during the celebration of the 10th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the EU, Kraków hosted an
international meeting of the SOLVIT network organised by the Polish SOLVIT Centre and the Commission.
The SOLVIT Centre has been functioning in Poland since May 2004 and operates in the European Affairs Department of
the Ministry of Economy.
7
67
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The functioning of the informal SOLVIT network is based mostly on the speed of its operation which
makes it an attractive tool that may be utilised by citizens and entrepreneurs in order to solve their
problems regarding the internal market with administration authorities of other countries. Moreover, the
free provision of services as part of the network is a good alternative to court proceedings.
In 2014, the Polish SOLVIT Centre received 485 new requests, which is significantly more compared to
2013 (402 requests). Most requests concerned the problems of citizens (92.2%). Requests submitted by
entrepreneurs comprised only 7.8% of all cases. The largest amount of cases managed in the database
concerned the problems of Polish citizens with administration authorities from: Germany, Italy, the
United Kingdom and France. Handled cases were primarily focused on problems concerning social
security and, secondly: residence permits, recognition of professional qualifications and roadside
inspections.
In 2014, the Polish SOLVIT Centre received 5 cases regarding the free movement of goods. One of
them was against Polish administration authorities. On the other hand, the case handled by the German
SC concerned the detention of goods by German customs authorities, while the case handled by the
Lithuanian SC pertained to alcohol used in the manufacture of cosmetics. In 2014, SOLVIT also
received four cases regarding the free movement of services, but an analysis showed that they did not
satisfy SOLVIT criteria. The above-mentioned cases concerned problems regarding software (against
Polish administration authorities), the issue of invoices (against Swedish administration authorities), the
Register of Foreign Service Providers (against Danish administration authorities), and the provision of
cross-border services (against French administration authorities).
Until the middle of June 2015, the SOLVIT Centre received 280 cases, of which 62 have already been
resolved. Among the cases received in 2015 is a case concerning the free movement of both goods and
services. The problem concerns the actions undertaken by the Slovakian administration which prevent a
Polish entrepreneur from performing a contract. The case has been closed in SOLVIT as non-resolved
and the European Commission is currently analysing the factual and legal circumstances concerning the
submitted problem.
Box 5 Barriers to free movement of services
Since 1st of January 2015, a statutory minimum wage in the amount of EUR 8.50 gross per hour has been
introduced in the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. Although minimum wages are applied in the vast
majority of EU Member States, the scope of application of German provisions is particularly extensive.
The requirement to apply a minimum hourly rate in the case of transport companies with registered offices
located outside the FRG and performing transport operation in its territory, regardless of the nature of such
operation (cabotage, international transport to/from the RFG, transit of goods and passengers). As a
consequence, the burdens placed on enterprises from the transport sector have increased, especially in Member
States from Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland. In 2014, the Polish sector of gainful road transport of
goods comprised approx. 30 thousand enterprises holding Community licences, who have approx. 164.5
thousand motor vehicles at their disposal. The share of Poland in the international road transport of goods of the
European Union amounts to 25%, i.e. Poland holds the first place in this category, above Spain and Germany.
In relation to the criticism received over these provisions, Germany decided to suspend the application of the
requirement to pay the German minimum wage to foreign drivers in transit through the territory of Germany until
such time as the European Commission determines whether this requirement is compliant with the EU law.
Nonetheless, there is a risk that certain other countries may introduce (e.g. France) or are in the process of
introducing (e.g. Norway) similar regulations to those established in Germany, which may lead to additional
barriers to the provision of international transport services in the EEA.
68
The main legal act regulating the internal market of the EU is the Directive 2006/123/EC of the
European Parliament and of the Council on services in the internal market, adopted on 12 th of
December 2006. The Directive was transposed into the Polish legal system by way of the Act of 4th of
March 2010 on the Provision of Services in the Territory of the Republic of Poland, which introduces
horizontal provisions and amendments to 27 specific acts.
In 2014, the European Commission has undertaken numerous actions aimed at the implementation of
the provisions of the Communication of 27th of January 2011 "Towards a better functioning Single
Market for services" which stipulated, inter alia, an action plan for the internal market for the years 20122014, proposed by the EC. The European Commission undertook the following actions in order to
facilitate the functioning of the principle of free movement of services:
 In relation to the implementation of the conclusions of the European Council of 25 th of October
2013, the Commission commenced works on annual reports concerning reforms conducted by
Member States in the services sector. The conclusions from first reports, published in
September 2014, indicate that substantial reforms in several sectors were introduced only in
some economies (EE, ES, EL, IT, LU, PT), while the remaining countries made limited
progress. It was also observed that there is a simple relation between challenges in the services
sector (confirmed, inter alia, by the issuance of relevant country-specific recommendations by
the Council of the EU under the European Semester) and the scope of actually introduced
reforms.
 In 2014, the Commission focused on several selected problems of the internal market. The
Commission undertook actions aimed at the reduction of problems connected with the
functioning of the mechanism for mutual recognition of insurance, referred to in Article 23 of the
Services Directive. In accordance with this provision, Member States may not require a
professional liability insurance or a guarantee from the service provider where the provider is
already covered by a guarantee which is equivalent or essentially comparable as regards its
purpose and coverage it provides in terms of the insured risk, the insured sum or a ceiling for
the guarantee and possible exclusions from the coverage, in another Member State in which
the provider is already established. Where equivalence is only partial, Member States may
require a supplementary guarantee to cover those aspects not already covered.
 As regards the rights of service users on the internal market, the European Commission has
undertaken initiatives aimed at the full implementation of the provisions of Article 20 of the
Services Directive. In accordance with its provisions, the Member States shall ensure that the
recipient is not made subject to discriminatory requirements based on his nationality or place of
residence. The Commission has undertaken actions aimed at the full implementation of the
above-mentioned provisions on the car rental market.
 In order to fully implement the provisions of Article 21 of the Services Directive concerning
assistance for service recipients, the Commission asked Member States to verify the authorities
responsible for ensuring real assistance to recipients using cross-border services.
 At the turn of 2014 and 2015, the Commission presented first conclusions concerning the best
practices regarding the retail trade sector, reached based on the peer review process
conducted in 2014. The peer review process concerned mainly the issues of spatial planning
and construction.
 The European Commission commenced works pertaining to the analysis of the functioning of
the principle of mutual recognition of permits and documents within the framework of free
movement of entrepreneurship and services.
 The European Commission commenced analytical works concerning services based on the
sharing economy model, due to the increasing importance of this model on the services market.
Peer-to-peer services consist in the utilisation of online platforms by individual entities for the
purpose of providing services.
69
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
 The Internal Market Strategy for goods and services is scheduled to be published by the
European Commission at the end of 2015.
2.4.1.
Free movement of persons
The free movement of workforce is one of the fundamental principles of the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union, enshrined in Article 45 thereof. Specific regulations in this regard are contained in
separate EU legislative instruments (the so-called secondary legislation) as well as in the case law of
the Court of Justice. EU citizens have the right to:
 seek employment in other EU Member States;
 take up employment in other EU Member States without the need to apply for a work permit;
 reside in other EU Member States for professional reasons;
 continue residence in such Member States even following the expiry of the contract of employment;
 receive the same treatment as the citizens of a given Member State with respect to employment,
working conditions and other social and tax-related rights.
EU citizens may also, within the designated scope, take advantage of their social security and health
insurance in the country in which they seek employment. The fundamental principles of the free
movement of workers also apply in countries which are members of the European Economic Area:
Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.
This resulted in a significant increase in emigration in the first years after the accession (which also
resulted from the statistical effect of legalizing work abroad).
In accordance with the provisions of the Treaty on the Accession of Poland to the European Union, the
maximum 7-year transitional period of temporary restrictions in terms of access of employees, that is
persons employed on the basis of the employment contract, to the labour markets of EU/EEA Member
States, has lapsed on 1st of May 2011. Moreover, the transitional period did not apply to self-employed
persons, that is persons providing services as part of pursued business activity. Since 1 st of May 2014,
the Swiss labour market is also opened to the citizens of Poland (Switzerland is not an EU and EEA
Member State, but maintains close trade relations with the Community).
At present, it is possible to observe migration movements in both directions. Both return migration and
new emigration has been observed. Estimates8 indicate that approximately 2,196 thous. Polish citizens
have been temporarily residing abroad at the end of 2013 (3.1% more compared to 2012). In 2013,
more than 1.891 thous. persons resided in Europe (compared to 1.816 thous. in 2012). With regard to
EU states, the greatest number of persons resided in the United Kingdom (642 thous.), Germany (560
thous.), Ireland (115 thous.) as well as the Netherlands (103 thous.) and Italy (96 thous.). With respect
It is necessary to note that persons temporarily residing abroad mean persons who reside abroad (often times for many
years), but have not deregistered from permanent residence in Poland in relation to their permanent stay abroad. The
presented data pertains to the estimated number of Polish residents who temporarily resided abroad at the end of a given
year. This data indicates the volume of the so-called immigration resources of Poles residing in other countries – according
to the state as at the end of each year (in the period between 2004-2013), thus it does not represent the number of people
who emigrated abroad in a given year. The results of estimates do not, in principle, include seasonal emigrations of Poles,
which due to their duration – in most cases up to 3 months – are subject to simplified formal and legal procedures or not
registered at all in most EC Member States.
8
70
to countries constituting the main directions of emigration from Poland, significant growth has been
observed in Germany (by 12% compared to the previous year) and the United Kingdom (by 0.8%
compared to the previous year). On the other hand, there has been a decline as regards the number of
Polish emigrants to Spain, Ireland and Greece – mainly due to the deteriorating situation on labour
markets in those countries. Further growth has also been noted in the number of persons residing in
European countries that are not part of the EU, including Norway – 71 thous. persons resided in that
country in 2013.9
Despite the liberalisation of access to labour markets of Member States, in practice the key factor which
enables the free movement of workers and work abroad is the recognition of their diplomas and
professional qualifications in other countries.
European Commission law lays down the manner for the recognition of professional qualifications
obtained in EU Member States for the purposes of taking up employment in one of such Member
States. The main source of regulations in this regard is Directive 2005/36/EC of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 7 September 2005 on the recognition of professional qualifications (OJ
L 255, 30.09.2005, p. 22, as amended). The text of the Directive 2013/55/EU of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 20th of November 2013 amending the Directive 2005/36/EC on the
recognition of professional qualifications and Regulation (EU) No 1024/2012 on administrative
cooperation through the Internal Market Information System has been published on 28 th of December
2013. The new Directive introduces solutions facilitating the recognition of professional qualifications
between Member States. However, countries have 2 years to include changes introduced by virtue
thereof in domestic regulations (until 18th of January 2016).
Additionally, works are also under way on the effective implementation of the National Qualifications
Framework. Under the Act of 18th of March 2011 (Dz. U. [Polish Journal of Laws] of 2011, No. 84, item
455) on the Amendment of the Act – Law on Higher Education, the Act on Academic Degrees and
Academic Titles and on Degrees and Titles in the Field of Arts as well as on the Amendment of Certain
Other Acts, which entered into force on 1st of October 2011, the minister competent for higher education
is now entitled to designate the National Qualifications Framework and, in particular, to issue
descriptions of educational effects for individual areas of education, taking into account educational
levels and profiles. Under the above authorisation, the Minister of Science and Higher Education issued
the regulation dated 2nd of November 2011 on the National Qualification Framework for Higher
Education (Dz. U. of 2011, No. 253, item 1520) which entered into force on 9 th of December 2011.
On 31st of March 2015, the Council of Ministers adopted guidelines to the Act on the Integrated
Qualifications System. Under this Act diplomas and certificates will be comparable, the quality of
courses and training will be determined and Polish companies will acquire a new tool to confirm their
competitiveness.
Box 6 Integrated Education System
The Integrated Education System will enable the following:
 Obtaining an attestation or certificate will be faster, easier and more available.
 It will be easier to assess what a given educational institution or training company has to offer.
 It will be possible to better plan your professional development.
 Educational and professional advisors will acquire a tool that will help them better assist persons
looking to retrain themselves, increase their competencies and seeking a job.
 Employees will be able to prove their worth to the employer in a more visible manner.
Information on the size and directions of emigration from Poland in the years 2004 – 2013, Central Statistical Office (GUS),
Warsaw 2014.
9
71
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
 Employers will be able to recruit, plan the wage network and training for its employees in a more

efficient and effective manner.
Training companies and other organisations providing various forms of training will be able to prove the
value of their offer and present it in a comprehensible manner.
Box 7 Main migration challenges faced by the EU
The unstable political situation, especially in North Africa and the Middle East (also Ukraine), enhances the
migration processes and requires undertaking particular actions with regard to: relocations/resettling/return
migration/readmission/reintegration and cooperation with countries of origin and transit, which requires a
comprehensive and geographically balanced approach to the phenomenon of migration, based on the principles
of solidarity and responsibility.
At its meeting held on 25-26 of June 2015, the European Council agreed on:
 the fast adoption by the Council of the decision concerning the temporary and exceptional relocation of
40 thous. – who clearly require international protection – from Italy and Greece to other Member States
within two years;
 the establishment of reception centres and initial reception centres in first-line Member States;
 the immediate provision of increased financial aid to first-line Member States in order to reduce the costs
of accepting and reviewing applications for international protection;
 the participation of all Member States in the resettling of 20 thous. refugees who clearly require
international protections, having regard to specific situations of Member States.
The European Council emphasizes the importance of effective return migration, readmission and reintegration
policies, applied towards those who do not qualify for protection, in combating illegal migration. The European
Council also emphasizes the key importance of strengthening the cooperation of the EU with countries of origin
and transit in terms of combating illegal migration, both with regard to stopping the flow of migrants with an
unregulated status and counteracting the basic reasons for migration. In this context, the Council declared
cooperation with African partners, Turkey and relevant Middle East countries (in particular Iraq, Jordan and
Lebanon).
2.4.2.
Industrial Policy
The European Commission has revised its approach as regards the development of the industrial policy.
Its main objective is to create conditions for re-industrialisation consisting in investing in the innovative
development of industry, more efficient utilisation of production capacity and encouraging enterprises
that moved their business activity to third countries to return to the EU.
The re-industrialisation will facilitate the development of existing and establishment of new branches of
industry on the basis of new, advanced techniques and technologies. With respect to the existing
industry, it is planned to implement investments aimed at its modernisation, increasing its productivity,
and decreasing energy and water consumption as well as waste production. Innovativeness in terms of
technology and enterprise management as well as development of new skills are of key importance for
the implementation of changes.
Poland is among the EU countries with a relatively high share of industry in the generation of GDP. In
the recent years, the Polish industry has increased its production and productivity year after year, while
decreasing energy and material consumption. The provision of a wide range of trade goods, enabling
the Polish economy to better utilise its access to the global market and cost competition mechanisms, is
equally important. It has been observed that countries with a higher share of industry in GDP structure
proved more resilient to turbulence in the global economy. As a result, a number of other countries has
put their current industrial policies under revision.
72
Chart 7 Share of industry in value added in 2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Czech Republic
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
Germany
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Irland
Austria
Estonia
Croatia
Finland
Sweden
EU-28
Italy
Denmark
Spain
Portugal
Belgium
Netherlands
Latvia
France
United Kingdom
Malta
Greece
Cyprus
Luxembourg
0
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department on the basis of Eurostat data.
The Ministry of Economy is conducting works on finalising the document titled Industrial Policy Priorities
2015-2020+. The document specifies industrial policy objectives and priorities which require undertaking
actions aimed at the significant improvement of the competitive position of the industry. The need to
increase activity in specific areas refers to both enterprises and public administration. A necessary
condition for sustainable development of the Polish industry is to keep cohesion between all policies
formulated at the EU forum and the industrial policy, with particular consideration given to the energy
and climate policy. To make the industry competitive, it is essential to promote pro-innovation attitudes
to enable individuals and businesses to find their place in the global market, to keep increasing the
share in the value chain and to manage it in an effective way. All these activities will be supported by a
better use of key techniques and technologies within the framework of national smart specializations.
The synergy of these factors will contribute to the pro-development climate in which Poland will be able
to succeed globally, gradually making its industry more and more competitive.
2.4.3.
Climate and energy package
The climate and energy package is a set of instruments aimed at the implementation of an
environmental policy which combines the objectives of climate protection and the objectives related to
energy policy.
The climate and energy package introduces a comprehensive approach to the management of
greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. It is intended to allow the EU to attain the objectives
related to combating climate change, commonly known as „3 x 20”, which have been adopted during the
European Council session in March 2007; these objectives are as follows:
 increase energy efficiency by 20% until 2020;
 increase the share of renewable energy to 20% of the total final energy usage in the EU until 2020;
 decrease the emission of greenhouse gases by at least 20% compared to the figures for year 1990
until 2020, with an option to increase the above percentage to 30% on the condition that other
developed countries undertake to implement a comparable reduction in emissions and that selected
developing countries make an appropriate contribution in this regard insofar as their capacity with
regard to reduction allows.
73
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The European Council has resolved that the share of individual Member States in the total emissions
reduction shall be determined on the basis of a varied, just and transparent approach which should take
into account the characteristics of individual economies as well as the applicable base years of the first
period of obligations, laid down in the Kyoto Protocol.
The climate and energy package comprises the following legal instruments, published in the Official
Journal of the EU L 140 of 5th of June 2009:
 Directive 2009/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 rd of April 2009 amending
Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading
scheme of the Community (the so called EU ETS Directive);
 Decision No. 2009/406/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23rd of April 2009 on
the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s
greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020 (the so called non-ETS Decision);
 Directive 2009/31/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23rd of April 2009 on the
geological storage of carbon dioxide and amending Council Directive 85/337/EEC, Euratom,
European Parliament and Council Directives 2000/60/EC, 2001/80/EC, 2004/35/EC, 2006/12/EC,
2008/1/EC and Regulation (EC) No. 1013/2006 (the so-called CCS Directive);
 Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23rd of April 2009 on the
promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing
Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC (the so-called RES directive).
One of the most significant provisions contained in the climate and energy package pertains to the issue
of sustainable production of fossil fuel-based energy, allowing for a substantial reduction of carbon
dioxide emissions by 2020. According to the guidelines adopted by the European Commission, the
climate and energy policy of the EU should be built around three main objectives: counteracting climate
change, restricting the susceptibility of the EU to external factors which stem from fossil fuel import
dependency as well as supporting employment and economic growth. Climate protection remains a
priority for the EU energy policy. In order to attain this priority goal, the „3x20” objectives were drawn up.
The climate and energy package reflects the abilities and reduction efforts of the Member States, which
is expressed, in particular, in the manner in which greenhouse gas emission allowances are allocated to
auctions for individual Member States as well as the division of non-ETS obligations.
The framework of the climate and energy policy until 2030 was the subject matter of the European
Council session held on 23-24 of October 2014. In Conclusions, the following targets were determined
to be achieved by 2030:
- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by at least 40% compared to 1990 (as the EU
contribution to the global climate agreement). The 40% reduction target corresponds to the
target of 43% in the area covered by the ETS (compared to 2005) and 30% in the non-ETS
area (in relation to 2005);
- RES share in the total energy consumption in the EU 2030 at a level of 27%; this target will
binding only at the EU level and will be achieved through the contributions of Member States.
- the indicative (non-binding) target of 27% concerning the improvement of energy efficiency by
2030 in comparison with future energy consumption forecasts.
The main objectives of Polish negotiators was to ensure that new solutions, including the reduction
target for 2030 would not have a negative impact on the path of economic growth projected in strategic
national documents and on energy prices in our country. The agreement dependent upon ensuring
mechanisms and instruments compensating for the costs of achieving emission reduction targets by
less prosperous Member States. As a result, Member States with a GDP per capita below 60% of the
74
EU average10 and showing high costs of achieving the new greenhouse gas emission reduction target
will be guaranteed:
- the possibility of free allocation of emission allowances for the energy sector (approx. 282
million allowances for Poland); and
- participation in the fund for the modernisation of the energy sector and investments increasing
the energy efficiency (approx. 135 million allowances for Poland).
In the Conclusions, it has also been decided that the free allocation for industrial sectors at risk of
carbon leakage will be continued, including by ensuring cost-effective access to energy and avoiding
unexpected gains for enterprises covered by such allocation.
In addition, on 25th of February 2015 the European Commission published the package of nonlegislative documents concerning the Energy Union (three communications together with accompanying
documents), including the communication titled Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a
Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy. In this Communication, the Commission sets out a package of
proposals concerning the concept of the Energy Union, presented as five interrelated and mutually
reinforcing dimensions:
- Energy security, solidarity and trust;
- Fully-integrated European energy market;
- Energy efficiency contributing to reduced demand;
- Decarbonization of the economy;
- Scientific research, innovation and competitiveness.
In this Communication, the Commission proposed 15 points detailing necessary actions that are to be
implemented through many legislative and non-legislative initiatives. As part of these actions, the
Commission is to propose provisions aimed at the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the level
agreed at the European Council session held in October 2014, both under the Emissions Trading
Scheme and in non-ETS sectors.
2.4.4.
Adjustments in the energy area
The Act – Energy Law of 10th of April 1997 lays down the rules for shaping the energy policy of Poland,
the functioning of energy-related companies, and conditions for the supply and utilization of energy and
fuels. Moreover, the aforementioned Act governs the duties of President of the Energy Regulatory
Office – the body competent with regard to fuel and energy management. In subsequent amendments,
inspired mainly by the need to implement the provisions of EU law in the national legal order, emphasis
was placed on the development of a competitive market for electricity, strengthening the position of the
consumer on this market, and ensuring an adequate level of power supply security. What is more, a
support system for electricity produced from renewable energy sources or by high-efficiency
cogeneration was established. The above-mentioned Act implemented, among others, the following
directives:
 Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 th of September 2001
on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal
electricity market;
 Directive 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26th of June 2003
concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive
96/92/EC;
All references to GDP made in the Conclusions pertain to 2013. This means that even if Poland exceeds the level of 60%
of GDP average in the EU in the years 2020-2030, it will still remain a beneficiary of solidarity funds.
10
75
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
 Directive 2003/55/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 th of June 2003
concerning common rules for the internal market in natural gas and repealing Directive
98/30/EC;
 Directive 2004/8/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 th of February 2004 on
the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market
and amending Directive 92/42/EEC;
 Directive 2005/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 th of January 2006
concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment;
 Directive 2009/72/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13th of July 2009
concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive
2003/54/EC.
The amendment of the Energy Law of 8th of January 2010 elaborates and improves the solutions
existing in the Polish legal system in the area of security of electricity supply and infrastructure
investment. Furthermore, the above amendment has also, inter alia, transferred the duties related to
ownership supervision over the electricity transmission system to the area of competence of the Minister
of Economy, enhanced the procedures for supplier change, regulated the issue of releasing fuel stocks
and introduced the support system for agricultural biogas. Additionally, it introduced the obligation to
make the trading in electricity public. In order to limit speculation when booking the connection power of
wind farms in the power supply system, an obligation to pay an advance on the connection fee and to
submit a document demonstrating the capacity to construct an energy source was introduced.
By means of the amendment of 26th of July 2013 (the so-called small energy three-pack), the third
liberalisation package was fully implemented and doubts with regard to the implementation of the
"electricity market", "gas market" and RES support directive. What is more, the position of recipients
was strengthened by: introducing facilitations as regards changing the provider of energy or gas fuels
(maintains discipline among DNOs and shortens deadline for making the change), adding statutory
complaint procedures in relation to energy companies, introducing a system of economic protection for
the poorest energy recipients through the introduction of energy allowances. Among the pro-consumer
changes implemented was the introduction of the possibility of generating electricity for own purposes in
micro-installations, with a minimum level of formalities for the recipient (without the need to pursue
business activity) and with an obligation to purchase electricity generated in this micro-installation – at a
price equal to 80% of the average price of electricity in the previous calendar year. They also included
the introduction of the so-called obligation to sell gas on the energy exchange at the level of 55% as of
2015. The independence of action of the President of the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) has been
strengthened and a procedure to certify transmission system operators has been introduced in order to
confirm that their actions are independent from other types of activities not related to the transmission of
energy, i.e. to verify compliance with the principles of the so-called unbundling. As regards ownership
supervision – the supervision over the gas transmission system operator has been transferred to the
Minister of Economy, who is statutorily responsible for energy security. A major change was the
introduction of tax credits for energy-intensive companies (industrial recipients) as a mechanism for the
reduction of RES and cogeneration support system costs. The tax credit scheme for this category of
recipients was then modified as part of the amendment of the Act – Energy Law in the Act of 20th of
February 2015 on Renewable Energy Sources, thus ensuring the compliance of the tax credit scheme
with the guidelines of the European Commission.
The act of 14th of March 2014 amending the Act – Energy Law extended the support for the generation
of electricity through cogeneration (CHP). The CHP support system will function in the years 2014-2018
on the principles applicable in the years 2007-2012 and having regard to the use of yellow and red
certificates. The basic modifications introduced are as follows:
76
 an annual obligation to settle certificates of origin has been introduced: certificates of origin issued
for energy generated in the previous calendar year are included when settling the obligation
defined for the previous calendar year;
 the lower threshold for the unit substitution fee "Ozk" was reduced from 15% to 5% of the average
energy price, so as to enable the President of the URE to better react to changes on the electricity
market;
 the final deadline for the redemption of certificates of origin and payment of the substitution fee was
changed: from 31st of March to 30st of June of each year for the previous calendar year.
The draft Act amending the Act – Energy Law and Certain Other Acts aimed at ensuring the effective
enforcement of obligations arising from the Regulation No 1227/2011 of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 25th of October 2011 on wholesale energy market integrity and transparency (the socalled REMIT regulation) through the establishment and adjustment of national regulations, including
the determination of proportional, effective and dissuasive sanctions (penal and administrative) for
violating obligations arising from this regulation, is currently being proceeded.
2.4.5.
Internal market and relations with third countries
With regard to policy pertaining to economic and trade relations with third countries, increasing the
competitiveness of the Polish and the European economy by way of, inter alia, reinforcing the industrial
base of the EU and bolstering its position in the global value added chains remains the top priority. The
actions referred to above remain consistent with the concept of enhancing the dynamics of the EU trade
policy in a global dimension and identifying an appropriate response to the continuing rise of Asian
countries to power in the field of economic activity and global commerce. An additional element that
appeared recently were also events in relations between Russia and Ukraine that also had an impact on
the trade relations of the EU, including Poland, with these countries. Poland was operating under the
principle that actions of the EU as regards trade policy should be directed towards generating growth
and employment in the EU. The establishment of mutual relations with third countries should be also
based on compliance with the principle of reciprocity and achievement of bilateral and balanced
benefits, and have regard to the situation of vulnerable sectors of the EU.
Based on the above assumptions, Poland has placed an emphasis on the further deepening of the
economic and trade relations of the European Union in its immediate vicinity (the Eastern Partnership
countries, Russia and the Southern Neighbourhood countries), the reinforcement of transatlantic
economic and trade relations (USA and Canada) and the economic and trade links with Asian countries,
including Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, increasing access to African markets, and the
reorganization of investment relations with China. These actions were accompanied by the involvement
of Poland in pursuing the implementation of liberalisation arrangements made on the multilateral level of
the World Trade Organization (WTO) and negotiations of plurilateral arrangements conducted under the
auspices of the WTO.
These actions were focused on the following main objectives:
ensuring a market in non-EU countries for EU (including Polish) goods and services as well
as access to public procurement being implemented on these markets;
ensuring the possibility to obtain resources in third countries;
ensuring proper protection of EU (including Polish) interests on third country markets as
regards goods, services and investments;
ensuring equal and fair competition on the EU market for EU (including Polish) production
and imported goods (dumping, subsidising export, double energy prices);
77
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
ensuring lower costs of supplying resources and components, that are not produced in the
EU or produced in insufficient quantity or quality, from non-EU countries for Polish
producers,
counteracting the request of other EU countries as regards lowering EU customs duties for
goods produced in Poland.
The eastern dimension of economic and trade relations
Efforts pertaining to the intensification of economic and trade relations with Eastern Partnership
countries remain consistent with the Polish policy intended to ensure a balanced EU support for its
southern neighbours. At the same time, changes in the political situation in countries from this region on
the one hand hinder the continuation of plans being implemented until now, while on the other will
require certain non-standard actions.
The EU and Ukraine signed the political part of the association agreement in March 2014, while the
trade part of this agreement, i.e. the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement), was
signed in June 2014. The European Parliament and Ukraine ratified the EU-Ukraine Association
Agreement on 16th of September 2014. In parallel to the support provided to Poland, the EU granted
Ukraine unilateral trade preferences consisting in the implementation by the EU of the provisions of the
DCFTA concerning the elimination or reduction of duties on agricultural and industrial products (which
de facto constitutes a unilateral application of the DCFTA by the EU towards Ukraine as regards access
to the EU market in the area of customs tariffs). However, the entry into force of the DCFTA was
postponed at Ukraine's request until 1st of January 2016. As a result, in April 2014 the EU postponed the
application – on its side – of unilateral trade preferences for Ukraine until the end of 2015.
In June 2014, the EU also signed association agreements with Georgia and Moldova. Political parts of
these agreements entered into force on 1st of September 2014. The trade part of these agreements in
the form of the DCFTA is also effective as of September 2014 on a temporary basis (until the ratification
process in EU Member States is fully finalised). In addition, Poland supported the motion of the
European Commission of 1st of September 2014 to introduce autonomous trade preferences for
Moldova, aimed at the establishment of duty free quotas on the import of fresh apples, grapes and
plums from Moldova to the EU. The regulation establishing the above-mentioned preferences is an
element of economic support for Chisinau in relation to difficulties arising from restrictions imposed by
Russia on export from Moldova.
On 1st of August 2014, Russia introduced a ban on the import of selected groups of products of plant
origin from Poland, including, among others: apples, pears, cabbage and similar brassica vegetables.
On 7th of August 2014, Russia also introduced a year-long ban on the import of agricultural products
and foodstuffs from, inter alia, the European Union, USA, Norway. Due to the extension of the ban to
include not only import, but also the transit of these goods through the territory of Russia, large financial
losses were incurred not only by the manufacturers of goods to which the embargo applied, especially
those focused on production intended for export to Russia, but carriers as well.
The transatlantic dimension of economic and trade relations
With respect to transatlantic relations, the most relevant issue were intensive works pertaining to the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) Agreement. 7 negotiation rounds took place until
the end of 2014, with another 2 rounds held in 2015. The negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic
and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada were finalised in 2014.
The future agreement aims at the establishment of the largest free trade area in the world between the
EU and USA. It constitutes an opportunity to deepen the economic integration of both these economies,
78
including Polish economy. The main objective of the TTIP is primarily to further liberalise access to
markets eliminate investment barriers through better regulations as well as eliminate customs duties in
mutual trade and costly non-tariff barriers. The TTIP Agreement is also aimed at reducing the costs
resulting from discrepancies in regulations and standards by promoting greater compliance,
transparency and cooperation, while maintaining a high level of health protection, security and
environmental protection. As the duty rates that are used in the trade with the US are relatively low, the
elimination of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and the convergence in terms of standards and norms will bring
the greatest benefits. The challenge during these negotiations is to eliminate export restrictions in the
export of gas from the USA. It will be also important to find adequate solutions for sensitive sectors,
such as agriculture or energy-intensive industry, including the chemical industry. In this context, the
process of identifying Polish and EU interests in the negotiations on the TTIP in reference to specific
industries and sectors of the economy, as well as sector and social consultations (including with regard
to the area of intellectual property and the investor-state dispute resolution mechanism) were continued.
The most important arrangements pertained, inter alia, to: market access (including access to the
goods, services and public procurement market); regulatory issues and non-tariff barriers, including on
the sector level; new areas of cooperation; the so-called trade principles including, among others, the
protection of intellectual property rights, facilitations in trade, antidumping and competition policy.
The conclusion of talks between the EU and Canada on the Comprehensive Economic Trade
Agreement (CETA) was announced on 26th of September 2014. The agreement establishes preferential
conditions of access to the Canadian market for European, including Polish, products and services.
Nearly all import duties will be eliminated. The agreement introduces a wide range of facilitations with
regard to pursuing business activity and ensures open access to the provision of the majority of services
on the Canadian market. EU enterprises will also receive access to the telecommunication, postal and
maritime services. The agreement provides for facilitations in investment issues as well. According to
the European Commission estimates, the entry into force of the CETA will result in the increase of trade
exchange by 23% (EUR 26 billion) and employment growth for both partners. The agreement with
Canada is very important for the future trade relations of the European Union, as due to economic ties
between Canada and the US (within the framework of the North American Free Trade Area – NAFTA)
agreements concluded by the European Union with the US and Canada will be interlinked.
The Asian dimension of economic and trade relations
In 2014, intensive works were under way on the EU forum concerning the negotiations of the Free
Trade Agreement (FTA) with Japan. The issues discussed at the forum included, among others, the
need to advance the process of eliminating non-tariff barriers (NTBs) existing in Japan, the reduction of
customs duties in the EU-Japan trade, including in the context of agricultural and food products, and
increasing the openness of the Japanese public procurement market.
After the technical finalisation of the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, trade negotiations were
initiated on EU-Vietnam FTA, EU-Malaysia FTA, and EU-Thailand FTA. The negotiations with Vietnam
are at the most advanced stages and can be expected to be finalised in 2015. The negotiations on the
FTA with Malaysia and Thailand, on the other hand, were suspended due to reasons attributable to
those countries. In 2014, the EU continued negotiations with China on the investment agreement.
The negotiations on the EU-Kazakhstan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) were
concluded on 19th of September 2014. As regards trade and economic relations, this agreement
regulates the cooperation as well as trade and economic relations with regard to, inter alia, customs
duties, trade in goods, TBT, SPS, competition, movement of capital and services, IPR, public
procurements, energy and raw materials.
79
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The African dimension of economic and trade relations
In 2014, the negotiations of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) were concluded with three African
regions: West Africa, Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African
Community. Among those countries are also the most important trade partners of Poland on the African
continent, including Nigeria, Mauritania, the Republic of South Africa, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. Following
the completion of procedures related to the conclusion of these agreements and their entry into force,
goods originating in the EU will have a specific level of preferential access to markets in those countries.
Multilateral trade negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO)
On the multilateral level, in 2014 works aimed at overcoming the negotiating impasse in the
implementation of the arrangements made at the 9 th WTO Ministerial Conference (Bali, December
2013), the most important of which pertained to the negotiated Trade Facilitation Agreement. The full
implementation of this agreement is estimated to result in benefits for the global economy at a level
exceeding USD 1 trillion, of which most will go to developing countries. Ultimately, as a result of efforts
undertaken by Poland, among other countries, it was possible to overcome the barriers and make
progress in the implementation of the agreement by India: the agreement concluded must be ratified by
individual WTO Member States. In the EU, the agreement should be approved in the second half of
2015.
At the same time works have been initiated on the principles of finalising the entirety of multilateral trade
negotiations conducted by the WTO within the framework of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). The
so-called post-Bali work programme is to be developed by July 2015. This creates hope for the
finalisation of the current round of negotiations that has been under way since 2001.
Negotiations pertaining to the revision of WTO's plurilateral Information Technology Agreement (ITA)
(suspended in 2013) were resumed in 2014. The subject matter of those talks concerns the further
extension of the ITA's scope (resulting in imposing a 0% customs duty rate on new electronic products)
and agreeing on the approach to eliminate non-tariff barriers (the so-called NTBs) between the ITA
signatories. Negotiations on the revision of the ITA are of significant importance for Poland as one of the
largest manufacturers of electronic products in the EU and the largest manufacturer of flat TVs. During
the APEC summit in November, held in Beijing, a breakthrough in the negotiations concerning the ITA
has been announced, but it has not yet been materialized in the form of an agreement on the technical
level. However, differences in the positions of countries are insignificant and the final understanding will
be concluded upon reaching a resolution with regard to five tariff lines. Talks will be continued in 2015.
In 2014, works were also under way in relation to the agreement of the so-called plurilateral agreement
on the liberalisation of free trade in environmental goods (Green Goods Initiative). At present, countries
engaged in talks in this regard include the USA, EU countries, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and
Japan. This initiative will be based on the list of environmental goods developed by APEC countries in
2012, with an additional inclusion of goods and, potentially, services closely related thereto as well as
non-tariff restrictions which have a positive impact on environmental protection. Talks in this regard will
be continued in 2015.
In 2014, works were also continued on the new plurilateral agreement on trade in services (Trade in
Services Agreement, TiSA), independently from the WTO. The above-mentioned works were launched
in 2013 on the initiative of the US, with support from the EU and Australia. TiSA did not yet gain the
interest of all WTO member states, therefore it is negotiated outside the DDA. At present, 23 WTO
Member States are taking part in TiSA negotiations, including: Australia, Canada, Mexico, Norway, the
EU, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Turkey, Japan, USA and South Korea.
80
The revised Agreement on Government Procurement (the so-called GPA), i.e. a plurilateral agreement
constituting a part of the WTO's acquis, entered into force on 7th of April 2014. The entry of this
agreement into force opened the government procurement market for its members in the additional
amount of USD 80-100 billion.
Miscellaneous economic and trade issues
Like every year, the EU forum conducted works on the development of regulations aimed at the
reduction of EU customs burdens on the import of raw materials and components unavailable on the EU
market and used by EU, including Polish, enterprises in the further processing or manufacture of
finished goods. As part of these works, Poland submitted 16 applications to reduce the EU customs
burdens on the import of raw materials and components used in further manufacture, of which 14
applications were included in EU regulations (in the case of 2 goods, manufacture was identified in the
EU and the manufacturer's data was provided to Polish applicants for the purpose of establishing
cooperation). Polish applications pertained to goods which are components in the following industries:
electronics, household appliances, packaging, textiles, motor vehicles and cosmetics. As part of the
above-mentioned works, Poland submitted 24 objections to applications submitted by other EU Member
States and to existing regulations in light of the identification of the manufacture of products to which
those applications pertained in Poland. All Polish objections were upheld (questioned applications were
withdrawn, questioned customs duty preferences in existing regulations will cease to apply or the scope
of the suspension of customs duties constituting the subject matter of submitted objections was limited
so as to exclude goods produced in Poland).
In the first half of 2014, works on the Trade Defence Instruments (TDI) modernisation package
presented by the European Commission in April 2013 were intensified. The declared aim of the
modernisation is the facilitation and improvement of the transparency of the EU’s TDI system, both from
the point of view of its users (importers, exporting producers, consumers, etc.) and EU producers. In the
second half of 2014, works on the modernisation of TDIs were suspended. However, maintaining the
status quo in this situation is beneficial for Poland due to the strong determination of some EU Member
States to liberalise the basic EU regulation which could result in limiting the area in which there would
be a legal possibility of counteracting specific cases of unfair trade on the side of non-EU suppliers.
In 2014, the European Commission initiated 38 safeguard proceedings. A substantial part of these
proceedings ended with the imposition of customs duties protecting both Polish and EU industry.
According to data as at the end of 2014, 81 anti-dumping measures (AD) and 13 anti-subsidy measures
(AS) were still in effect. As regards the interests of Polish industry, the currently applicable anti-dumping
or anti-subsidy duties imposed on the import of the following goods: bicycles and bicycle parts from
China, ammonium nitrate from Russia, porcelain tableware and kitchenware from China, corn from
Thailand, ferrosilicon from Russia and China, organic coated steel from China, pipe and tubing fittings
from China and Thailand, welded pipes from Russia, Belarus and China, seamless pipes from China,
ceramic tiles from China, ironing boards from China, rainbow trout from Turkey.
81
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
2.5. Absorption of EU funds
2.5.1.
Financial perspective for 2007-2013
The following operational programmes were implemented in Poland within the financial perspective for
2007-2013:
 Infrastructure and Environment Operational Programme;
 Human Capital Operational Programme;
 Innovative Economy Operational Programme;
 Development of Eastern Poland Operational Programme;
 European Territorial Cooperation Programmes;
 Technical Assistance Operational Programme;
 16 Regional Operational Programmes.
The objectives of measures within the financial perspective have been included in the National
Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF). The strategic objective of the NSRF is to create conditions
enhancing competitiveness of the economy based on knowledge and entrepreneurship, ensuring
growth of employment and an increased level of social, economic, and spatial cohesion in Poland. The
NSRF also provides for the accomplishment of horizontal objectives stemming from the EU strategic
guidelines and the SWOT analysis of the Polish economy, inter alia, the improvement of
competitiveness and innovativeness of enterprises. The allocation of EU funds to specific Operational
Programmes has been presented in the table below.
Table 21 Allocation of funds to programmes within the framework of the Cohesion Policy (2007-2013)
Value of the
Participation
allocation of
Programme
in the total
funds (billion
allocation (%)
EUR)
IE OP
8.3
12.4
I&E OP
27.9
41.9
HC OP
9.7
14.6
TA OP
0.5
0.8
DEP OP
2.3
3.4
ETC OP
0.4
0.0
National total
49.1
73.1
Regional total
16.6
24.9
Performance reserve
2.0
2.0
NSRF TOTAL
67.7
100.0
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
The key instrument under the NSRF, oriented towards increasing the competitiveness of enterprises by
such means as raising their innovativeness, was the Innovative Economy Operational Programme
2007–2013 (IE OP). Over 90% of funds were allocated for measures in the following areas: research
and development, innovation, information and communication technologies (40% of funds were
allocated for the direct support of enterprises).
The IE OP supported measures in the area of product, process, marketing and organisational
innovation which, directly or indirectly, contribute to the establishment and development of innovative
82
enterprises at the national or international level. Entrepreneurs could apply for support intended for,
inter alia, the following ventures:
 highly innovative ventures, regardless of the size of the company or the industry, including for
their initiation;
 highly innovative projects of high value, e.g. investments exceeding EUR 2 million;
 investments related to R&D activities, including the implementation of results of R&D activities
and new technologies as well as R&D activities ordered by enterprises;
 supporting cooperative ties between enterprises as well as between enterprises and the
science sector.
Progress in the implementation of the National Strategic Reference Framework 2007-201311
The allocation of EU funds for Poland under the EU cohesion policy for 2007-2013 was agreed at
around EUR 67.7 billion. Over EUR 48.7 billion was earmarked for the implementation of national
operational programmes, and more than EUR 16.6 billion for regional operational programmes.
Additional funds in the amount of approx. EUR 2 billion from the National Performance Reserve and the
so-called Technical Adjustment were allocated to individual programmes in the course of the mid-term
review performed in 2011.12
Table 22 The utilisation of funds under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)
Co-financing agreements
Payment applications
Value of
Value of
Value of
Level of
Level of
expenditure
EU coeligible
EU coallocation
allocation
recognised
financing
Programme
Number expenditu financing absorption in
absorption in
as
(PLN
re (PLN
(PLN
years 2007years 2007eligible
million)
million)
million)
2013 (%)
2013 (%)
(PLN million)
IE OP
17,950
69,853
38,841
108%
52,401
29,263
81%
I&E OP
3,303
158,878
120,206
101%
134,174
101,999
86%
HC OP
47,778
52,983
44,195
106%
48,213
40,207
97%
TA OP
454
2,663
2,263
106%
2,205
1,874
87%
DEP OP
308
13,604
10,296
104%
10,209
7,981
80%
ETC OP
313
1,801
1,489
105%
1,383
1,149
81%
National total
70,106
299,784
217,293
104%
248,588
182,476
87%
Regional total
36,141
110,858
71,207
99%
97,735
63,029
88%
NSRF TOTAL
106,247
410,642
288,500
103%
346,324
245,506
87%
Source: Own study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Ministry of
Infrastructure and Development data – Use of EU funds under the National Cohesion Strategy for 2007-2013, monthly data
for June 2015.
Approximately 106.2 thousand contracts/decisions for co-financing the implementation of projects with a
total of eligible expenditures of PLN 410.6 billion were signed/issued since the launch of the
programmes until the end of June 2015, with the Community contribution of nearly PLN 288.5 billion,
which amounts to approx. 103% of the allocation for the years 2007-2013. The programmes under
which the highest amount of Community funds was contracted included: Innovative Economy OP,
Technical Assistance OP, and European Territorial Cooperation OP, the allocation to which has been
Based on periodic reports on progress in the programme implementation prepared by the Ministry of Infrastructure and
Development.
12 More than EUR 1.3 billion was earmarked for the National Performance Reserve (NPR) on the basis of Article 50 of
Council Regulation (EC) No 1083/2006 laying down general provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the
European Social Fund and the Cohesion Fund and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1260/1999 and more than EUR 632 million
constituted the so-called Technical Adjustment (TA).
11
83
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
utilised at the level of: 108%, 106% and 105%, respectively. The highest amount was contracted to the
Infrastructure and Environment OP – more than PLN 158 billion.
Chart 8 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) in contracts signed, by voivodeships, in division into
national and regional operational programmes, in absolute terms. As at 30th of June 2015
Source: Own study by the Coordinating Authority of the NSRF on the basis of the National Information Infrastructure
(KSI SIMIK 07-13).
In the overall amount of PLN 287.0 billion of EU co-financing granted under contracts signed by 30th of
June 2015 within the framework of the NOPs and ROPs, the largest amount of funds in regional terms –
taking into account the location of project implementation – was allocated to the following voivodeships:
Mazowieckie – PLN 42.1 billion, Śląskie – PLN 25.6 billion, and Małopolskie – PLN 20 billion;
investments co-financed under the Infrastructure and Environment Operational Programme represented
the largest share.
Chart 9 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) under signed contracts, by voivodeships, in division
into types of beneficiaries. As at 30th of June 2015
(KSI SIMIK 07-13).
The average national amount of EU co-financing under contracts signed by 30th of June 2015 per capita
amounted to PLN 6.9 thousand (PLN 7.5 thousand after including projects being implemented on a
84
country-wide scale). In this perspective (per capita), the largest amount of funds was allocated to the
voivodeships of Eastern Poland: Warmińsko-Mazurskie (PLN 9.3 thousand) and Podkarpackie (PLN 8.8
thousand).
In terms of the type of entities implementing projects supported from the NSRF for the years 2007-2013,
the largest groups of beneficiaries were enterprises (PLN 92.9 billion, i.e. 32% of the total value of
contracts) and local government units (PLN 88.8 billion, i.e. 31% of the total value of contracts).
Chart 10 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) under signed agreements, by voivodeships, in division
into thematic areas. As at 30th of June 2015
(KSI SIMIK 07-13).
In division into specific thematic intervention areas, the largest amount of funds was allocated to
transport infrastructure projects (PLN 109.8 billion, i.e. 38%), followed by projects supporting innovation,
R&D and entrepreneurship (PLN 50.6 billion – 18%), projects concerning human capital (PLN 41 billion
– 14%), environmental protection and risk prevention projects (PLN 26.8 billion – 9%), and social
infrastructure projects (PLN 24.4 billion – 8%). It should be noted that the support structure in regional
terms is similar.
As at the end of June 2015, business entities applied for the co-financing of investment projects with a
total value of over PLN 220.5 billion, with the value of eligible expenditures estimated at around PLN
163 billion and the value of co-financing from Community funds at over PLN 92.8 billion. Projects with
the highest total value of EU contribution were carried out by enterprises under the Infrastructure and
Environment OP (PLN 44.1 billion) and under the Innovative Economy OP (PLN 22.6 billion). The total
EU funding for projects implemented by enterprises under the 16 ROPs amounted to PLN 16.8 billion.
On the basis of approved grant applications, the expenditures of enterprises in terms of EU contribution
are the highest under the Infrastructure and Environment OP – PLN 30.4 billion and under the
Innovative Economy OP – PLN 16.4 billion. In the case of projects implemented under the 16 ROPs, the
EU contribution amounted to over PLN 14.3 billion.13
Own study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the National Information
Infrastructure (KSI SIMIK 07-13): Grant applications divided into programmes and legal forms, the Ministry of Regional
Development.
13
85
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Chart 11 Projects implemented by enterprises, by operational programmes, as at the end of May 2015
(PLN billion)
50
45
44.1
40
35
30.4
30
25
22.6
16.4
20
16.8
15
8.6
10
7.6
5
0.9
0
Infrastructure and Innovative Economy
Environment
Human Capital
EU co-financing under contracts
14.4
0.6
Development of
Eastern Poland
Total Regional
Programmes
Beneficiaries expenditure in the EU
Source: Own study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the National
Information Infrastructure (KSI SIMIK 07-13): Co-financing agreements by programmes and legal forms, Ministry of
Infrastructure and Development – as at the end of June 2015.
2.5.2.
Financial perspective for 2014-2020
Main areas of intervention under EU funding for the years 2014-2020
In June 2011, the European Commission has announced the proposal of the budget for the years 20142020.14 The new principles constituting the basis for the new programming period include: increasing
the flexibility and consistency in the financing of the implementation of individual priorities and the
simplification of rules governing the provision of financial support, the introduction of the principle of
focusing on results and defining clear and measurable intermediary stages and final targets of
implementation, the principle of prevalence of the executive reserve mechanism, and the so-called
principles of ex-ante and macroeconomic conditionality.
Despite declarations concerning the reduction in the number of thematic objectives and support areas,
the Commission's proposal contains as many as 11 of such objectives for the years 2014-2020. These
objectives are as follows:
 Supporting research, technological development and innovation;
 Enhancing access to, use and quality of information and communication technologies
 Enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises, the agricultural sector and
the fisheries and aquaculture sector;
 Supporting the shift towards a low carbon economy in all sectors;
 Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management;
 Protecting the environment and promoting resource efficiency;
 Promoting sustainable transport and removing bottlenecks in key network infrastructures;
 Promoting employment and supporting labour mobility;
 Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty;
 Investing in education, skills and lifelong learning;
 Enhancing institutional capacity and efficient public administration.
14
COM(2011) 500.
86
In addition, the support will be earmarked for objectives connected with the Technical Assistance and
the European Territorial Cooperation.
Decisions concerning the main assumptions of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 20142020 were made during the European Council session held on 7-8 February 2013.15 The political
compromise stipulated that the maximum overall amount earmarked for expenditures for the EU-28 in
the years 2014–2020 in funds for commitments shall be EUR 959.9 billion, i.e. 1.00% of the EU GNI
(down by 3.5%) and EUR 908.4 billion in payments, i.e. 0.95% of the EU GNI (down by 3.7%)16. In the
financial perspective for 2007-2013, these funds totalled EUR 994.1 billion and EUR 942.7 billion,
respectively.17
The MFF was given its final shape by the European Parliament (EP) which adopted this document on
19th of November 2013. The total budget for the next 7 years amounts to EUR 960 billion with respect to
commitments (with EUR 908 billion planned for payments).18 EUR 105.8 billion from this budget has
been earmarked for Poland (within the framework of both the cohesion and agricultural policies).
The adopted Multiannual Financial Framework constitutes an expression of investment priorities for the
European Union, among which it is worth mentioning such priorities as:
 research and development (Horizon 2020);
 the connection of the transport, communication and energy infrastructure of Member States
(Connecting Europe Facility);
 education (Erasmus+);
 an adequate perspective for the youth (Youth Employment Initiative);
 the competitiveness of European enterprises (COSME).
By analysing the structure of the allocation of funds under the Multiannual Financial Framework for
2014-2020, it is worth to note the so-called sub-heading 1a “Competitiveness for growth and
employment”. Funds allocated under this sub-heading are intended to ensure the implementation of
actions pertaining to intelligent, socially inclusive economic growth. Programmes implemented under
this heading may significantly contribute towards the implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy, in
particular with regard to the following ventures: promoting scientific research, innovation and
technological development; performing specific actions intended to increase the competitiveness of
enterprises and SMEs; investing in education and skill development under the „Erasmus for all”
programme; developing the social agenda. The level of commitments for this sub-heading shall not
exceed EUR 125.6 billion; at the same time, it is worth noting that allocations for the years 2014-2020
have increased by over 37% compared to the 2007-2013 perspective.19
Allocation of EU funds for Poland
The total allocation for Poland, earmarked for the cohesion policy, will amount to approx. EUR 82.2
billion (at current prices). Additionally, Poland will receive approx. EUR 252.4 billion towards support for
the unemployed youth (Youth Employment Initiative). The total allocation for Poland, including the
transfer for the Technical Assistance of the European Commission and innovative actions in the field of
balanced development of urban areas, amounts to approx. EUR 82.5 billion. By obtaining such level of
See the Conclusions of the European Council (7-8 February 2013) pertaining to the Multiannual Financial Framework
(EUCO 37/13 CO EUR 5 CO&CL 3).
16 In prices from 2011.
17 See http://www.consilium.europa.eu/special-reports/mff/summary-of-the-european-council-agreement?lang=pl.
18 See COM (2013) 928 final.
19 See http://www.consilium.europa.eu/special-reports/mff/summary-of-the-european-council-agreement?lang=pl.
15
87
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
allocation under the cohesion policy, Poland will become its biggest beneficiary in the programming
period of 2014-2020. Additionally, funds obtained under agricultural programmes place Poland in the
fifth position among beneficiaries of agricultural policies, behind France, Germany, Spain and Italy.
The above-mentioned base allocation includes separate obligatory transfers for instruments and
programmes managed directly by the European Commission (such as transfers from the Cohesion
Fund to the Connecting Europe facility, the Fund for the European Aid to the Most Deprived). The above
transfers decrease the allocation available to Poland by approx. EUR 5 billion. Therefore, the amount
available for programming under the Partnership Agreement is approx. EUR 77.5 billion.
Table 23 Comparison of the shares of individual thematic objectives in the overall Cohesion Policy
allocation for the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 perspectives
Thematic objectives specified in the EU legislative package
Shares
2007-2013
13.9
Shares
2014-2020*
11.7
1. Strengthening research, technological development and innovation
2. Enhancing access to, degree of usage and quality of, information and communication
5.3
3.6
technologies
3. Increasing competitiveness of SMEs, the agricultural sector and the fisheries and
3.2
11.0
aquaculture sector
4. Promoting the transition to a low carbon economy in all sectors
2.1
10.8
5. Promoting adaptation to climate change, risk prevention and management
1.4
1.6
6. Protecting the environment and supporting the effective use of resources
12.2
10.3
7. Promoting sustainable transport and removing bottlenecks in key network infrastructures
39.1
27.9
8. Promoting employment and supporting employee mobility
6.1
6.5
9. Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty
6.0
7.5
10. Investing in education, skills and life-long learning
8.2
4.7
11. Enhancing institutional capacity and effective public administration
0.7
0.2
TOTAL 11 thematic objectives
98.2
96.0
Technical Assistance
0.8
3.2
European Territorial Cooperation
1.0
0.8
TOTAL
100.0
100.0
* Including EAFRD allocations.
Source: Own study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of: Draft Partnership
Agreement (version from 08.01.2014), p. 87 and Partnership Agreement (version from 23.05.2014), p. 161-162.
The proposal for the allocation of resources for years 2014-2020 assumes an overall increase in funds
earmarked for objectives related to increasing the innovativeness of the economy and the
competitiveness of enterprises (objectives 1, 2 and 3) as well as objectives related to low-emission
economy (objective 4) and social inclusion (objective 9). At the same time, the most substantial
decrease in the allocation structure can be seen with respect to the objective related to the development
of transport infrastructure. It needs to be added at this point that the decrease referred to above shall be
most readily apparent with respect to interventions in local transport infrastructure. As regards the three
main development objectives of the country (according to the provisions of the National Development
Strategy 2020), the most substantial share of funds shall be earmarked for activities aimed at supporting
the increase of the level of competitiveness. Measures allocated directly to the objective related to the
efficiency of the state shall receive the smallest share among all three development objectives of the
country, although it is worth remembering that these actions also receive indirect support under the
programmes aimed at the implementation of objectives relating to competitiveness and social and
territorial cohesion.
88
Operational Programmes for the years 2014-2020
In 2014–2020, 8 national operational programmes financed under ERDF, ESF, CF, EAFRD, EMFF and
ETC programmes will be run in Poland. While at the regional level, similarly as in the present
programming period, 16 regional operational programmes will be implemented. Within the framework of
the cohesion policy, both targets defined in regulations – Growth and Employment as well as European
Territorial Cooperation – will be pursued.
Table 24 Proposed allocation for operational programmes under the 2014-2020 perspective
Size of allocation
Share of allocation
Operational Programme
(EUR bn)
(%)
Infrastructure and Environment OP
27.4
35.7
Smart Growth OP
8.6
11.2
Knowledge, Education and Development OP *
4.6
6.0
Eastern Poland OP
2.0
2.6
Digital Poland OP
2.1
2.7
Technical Assistance OP
0.7
0.9
ROP (with the Mazowieckie Province)
31.2
40.6
TOTAL
76.8
100.0
* Including funds under the Youth Employment Initiative.
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Partnership
Agreement (version from 23.05.2014), p. 165.
The main beneficiaries of specific national operational programmes and the most important support
areas of each such programme have been presented in the table below. It is necessary to note that
specific calls for proposals may introduce restrictions concerning entities authorized to apply, pertaining
to, inter alia, experience, competencies or legal form, ownership or organisational structure, etc.
Detailed information concerning entities authorized to apply for support are each time published in the
documentation for the call of proposals for co-financing.
Additionally, it is necessary to remember about the specificity of potential beneficiaries and support
areas in which the 16 Regional Operational Programmes (ROPs) are implemented. In opposition to
National Operational Programmes (NOPs) which carry out strictly specified types of thematic
intervention (related to, e.g., the development of transport infrastructure or R&D units of extra-regional
importance), ROPs implement all objectives and types of intervention which will support the long-term
development of specific voivodeships. This means that in the case of ROPs both the number of
potential beneficiaries and support areas will be larger than in the case of NOPs. As ROPs provide
support tailored to a given voivodeship – specific types of support instruments used and their
beneficiaries may vary significantly.
89
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 25 Main beneficiaries and support areas of national operational programmes for the years 20142020
Operational
Programme
Main beneficiaries



Infrastructure
and Environment
OP






Smart Growth OP

Support areas
enterprises,
Public administration,
Enterprises implementing public
objectives
Health institutions,
Social organizations and religious
associations,
Institutions of science and
education.
enterprises (particularly SMEs),
scientific units,
consortia of enterprises and
scientific units
business environment institutions.



















Reducing the economy emission
Environmental protection, including adaptation to
climate change
Development of transport networks (eg TEN-T and
multimodal transport)
Development of low-carbon transport in cities,
Improving energy security
Protection of cultural heritage and development of
cultural resources,
Strengthening strategic healthcare infrastructure
Support for carrying out R + D work by enterprises,
Support for the environment and the potential of
enterprises to conduct business R + D + I,
Increasing the intensity of cooperation within the
framework of the national innovation system,
Support for innovation in enterprises,
Increasing the research potential,
Development of modern research infrastructure of the
science sector.
Support for young people in the labor market,
The support of public policies in the areas of labor
market, the economy and education
Ddevelopment of higher education
Social innovation and transnational cooperation
Support for the health area
young persons

SME sector *

social economy entities*

public administration *,

local government units *,
Knowledge,
labor market institutions (including 
Education and
VLC, employment services),
Development OP
 social partners
 schools and educational
institutions*
 universities and scientific units *
 Medical staff,
* And their employees
 enterprises (particularly SMEs and  Ddevelopment of entrepreneurship,
start-ups)
 Modern Transport Infrastructure,
 innovation centers, as promoters
 Transregional Railway Infrastructure,
Eastern Poland OP
of the starting Platform,
 Technical Support.
 local government units,
 PKP PLK S.A.
 telecommunications companies,
 Universal access to high-speed Internet,
 government administration entities  E-government and open government
and entities responsible to them or  Digital socjety competence
supervised by them
Digital Poland OP
 scientific units,
 state cultural organizations,
 non-governmental organizations.
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
90
Table 26 Main beneficiaries and support areas of the regional operational programmes (including for the
Mazowieckie voivodeship) under the 2014-2020 perspective









Main beneficiaries
Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises,
Local Government Units,
Public services other than administration,
Health institutions,
Business support institutions,
Institutions of science and education,
Partnership (including clusters, PPPs)
Enterprises implementing the public objectives
Social organizations and religious associations.









Support areas
Regional and local scientific infrastructure, technology
transfer, regional research and innovation
Supporting entrepreneurship,
Local energy investments, low-carbon strategies for cities,
Regional and local environmental infrastructure, culture,
Regional and local transport infrastructure - public transport
in cities,
Regional and local educational infrastructure, social,
revitalization, local development strategies, accessibility to
services,
Access to employment for job-seekers and inactive people,
including local initiatives; sustainable integration in the labor
market of young people,
Self-employment, entrepreneurship and creation of new
jobs; promoting the adaptability of enterprises and workers
to change, and increasing investment in human capital,
Active integration; integration of marginalized communities;
local development strategies; increasing the availability, use
and quality of information and communication technologies
for development of digital literacy, investment in e-inclusion
* Including funds under the Youth Employment Initiative.
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Partnership
Agreement (version from 23.05.2014), p. 165.
Development policy coordination mechanism
Apart from changes concerning the objectives of spending or tools supporting Polish economy, changes
will also be introduced to the way in which operational programmes are coordinated. In the
programming period of 2014-2020, the Coordination Committee for the National Strategic Reference
Framework (CC NSRF) will be replaced by the Partnership Agreement Committee (PAC). It is
necessary to note that its members will be representatives of the government administration, local
administration and socio-economic partners (including, among others, non-governmental organisations,
entrepreneurs' associations). Each party represents 1/3 of committee members. The position of
president of the committee is held by the minister in charge of regional development, while deputy
presidents are the minister in charge of economy and minister in charge of agriculture.
The committee will be the main entity supporting the process of coordinating the strategic programming
and interventions on the level of the Partnership Agreement. The Partnership Agreement Committee's
duties include, inter alia, reviewing the implementation of the partnership agreement and programmes
supporting its implementation from the point of view of progress in the achievement of objectives
specified therein, including the assessment of the achievement of specific thematic objectives under
relevant operational programmes; ensuring the coordinated implementation of objectives and actions;
reviewing the strategy for the communication of the cohesion policy and its amendment.
91
3. COMPETITIVENESS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY
3.1. International competitiveness rankings
Over the recent years, Poland's position in some international comparisons and rankings of
competitiveness was systematically improving. This proves that progress has been made and that the
implemented changes – including, in particular, changes related to deregulation – are proceeding in the
right direction.
Information included in such rankings may be helpful while making investment decisions, but it should
be noted that their methodology has certain limitations, and therefore they should be interpreted only in
specific contexts.
Evaluations of the competitive position of the Polish economy as compared to other countries are
presented below, based on a number of selected publications on the subject.
“Doing Business 2015"– World Bank and IFC20 Report
The World Bank Report is one of the most renowned and frequently quoted competitiveness studies.
The experts of the World Bank restrict the scope of their evaluation solely to the microeconomic aspects
of business activity. These are generally linked to regulations in 10 areas which are considered crucial
for business, such as paying taxes, enforcing contracts, starting a business or getting credit.
According to the results contained in the most recent edition of the Doing Business 2015 report, Poland
placed 32nd (out of 189 countries in total) in the overall ranking concerning the ease of doing business.
Taking into account the annual change in methodology and data update, it means a drop by 2 places
compared to the report from 2014.
Much like in the previous edition of the ranking, our country placed highest in the "ease of getting credit"
category (17th – a drop by 3 places compared to 2014). Poland also placed relatively high with regard to
insolvency law (32nd place – a drop by 2 positions) and protecting minority investors (35th place – no
change). Poland has observed the biggest improvement (by 5 positions) with respect to procedures
related to trading across borders (41st place).
A lower score compared to the previous year was recorded with regard to access to electricity 21. The
evaluation of such factors as: time of required procedures (161 days compared to 77 days on average
in the OECD), number of procedures (3 compared to 4.7 in the OECD) and their cost (20.8% of income
per capita, i.e. 3.5 times lower than in the OECD), resulted in Poland placing in the 64th position.
In the “starting a business” category, Poland dropped by 5 positions and placed 85th. The low evaluation
resulted from the number of days which, according to the findings presented by the authors, is
20
21
International Finance Corporation.
It refers to a fixed electrical connection obtained by an enterprise for a newly-built warehouse.
93
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
necessary to commence business activities (30 days compared to an average of 9.2 in OECD countries)
and costs (12.9% of the income per capita compared to an average of 3.4% in OECD countries). Among
all EU-13 countries, Lithuania, Slovenia and Estonia have received the highest scores in this regard
(11th, 15th and 26th position, respectively).
With regard to enforcing contracts, Poland has improved by 2 positions and currently holds the 52nd
place. According the calculations of the report’s authors, even as recently as in 2012 the period of time
necessary to enforce contracts amounted to 830 days. A year later this period has decreased to 685
days (compared to an average of 539 days in OECD countries). EU-13 countries that received the
highest scores in this regard are Lithuania and Latvia (14 th and 16th position, respectively), while the
highest scores among all EU countries were noted by Luxembourg (2nd) and Austria (5th).
In terms of the ease of paying taxes, Poland has dropped 6 positions: from 81 st to 87th place. 6 EU
countries were placed lower, i.e.: Hungary, Bulgaria, France, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy.
According to the estimates of the report's authors, an entrepreneur who would be willing to comply with
Polish tax regulations would need to make a total of 18 payments per annum (compared to an average
of 11.8 in OECD) and spend a total of 286 hours for this purpose (175 hours in OECD). However, the
total interest rate is lower compared to the OECD average (38.7% vs. 41.3%). Among EU-13 countries,
Latvia (24th position), Malta (26th), Estonia (28th) and Croatia (36th) placed highest in this regard.
Despite a significant decrease in the time required to register the ownership right to property (currently –
33 days), Poland's position did not change (39th place). The time and number of procedures required to
register property may be improved further, while the cost of registration is several times lower than the
OECD average.
In the previous edition of the ranking, Poland observed the biggest improvement (by 16 positions) in the
“dealing with construction permits” sub-ranking. In this year's ranking, Poland recorded a slight drop and
holds the 137th position, making it the category in which Poland received the lowest rank. Despite very
low costs of obtaining a permit – compared to the average of OECD countries (0.3% vs. 1.7% of the
value of warehouse being constructed) the number (19 th) and time (212 days) of required procedures
clearly exceeds the OECD average.
Table 27 Ease of doing business rankings
United
Czech
Germany France Spain Lithuania
Italy Slovakia Poland
Kingdom
Republic
Ranking for 2014
9
13
33
32
24
47
52
35
30
Ranking for 2015
8
14
31
33
24
44
56
37
32
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Doing Business 2015.
Ernst & Young's 2015 European Attractiveness Survey
This year’s European Attractiveness Survey marks the 13 th edition of the Ernst & Young study. The
report contains results of an analysis pertaining, inter alia, to the attractiveness of both Europe and its
competitors assessed by a panel consisting of 808 foreign investors. Similarly to the previous year,
Poland was deemed the most attractive in terms of investments among all Central and Eastern
European countries. Our country was chosen by 38% of respondents, which is significantly more than
the following The Czech Republic (14%) and Hungary (10%). The number of investment projects
launched in 2014 (132 – growth by 23%) resulted in Poland placing 1st in the region. At the same time,
the number of newly-created jobs has increased by 12%. 15,485 jobs created through those
investments enabled Poland to place third in Europe, after the United Kingdom and Russia.
94
The report also mentions the leading position of Poland with regard to service centres providing services
to large companies. In 2014, BPO investments constituted 9% of FDI projects, generating nearly 25% of
new jobs.
Table 28 Ranking of countries according to the number of jobs created by FDI
United
Czech
Kingdom
Republic
Ranking for 2014
1
7
2
6
11
15
3
Ranking for 2015
1
5
4
7
11
9
3
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Ernst & Young
Attractiveness Survey 2015, 2014
Global Competitiveness Ranking of the World Economic Forum 2014-2015
The Global Competitiveness Ranking is the key component of the annual report of the World Economic
Forum entitled "The Global Competitiveness Report", drawn up on the basis of an evaluation of the socalled Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) which measures the overall competitiveness of the
economy. The index was calculated on the basis of over 100 individual indicators grouped into 12
categories (competitiveness pillars) and assigned to three main sub-indexes (basic requirements;
efficiency enhancers; innovations and business sophistication). Some of the individual indicators which
formed the basis for evaluation were determined on the basis of the results of a survey performed
among entrepreneurs/managers in the period between February and June 2014. 22 It was also partially
based on data derived from the public statistical information, up to and including 2013.
In the latest WEF ranking – GCI 2014-2015 – Poland has dropped by 1 position, ranking 43rd among
144 countries. However, Poland ranks higher than 10 among EU-28 countries: Malta, Italy, Bulgaria,
Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia and Greece.
Among the 12 categories analysed, Poland has noted the best results in: market size (19th place – up by
1 position), higher education and training (34th place – up by 3 positions) and financial market
development (35th place – up by 3 positions). Poland received the lowest ranks with regard to labour
market efficiency (79th place – up by one position), innovation (down by 7 positions to the 72 nd place),
infrastructure (63rd place – up by 11 positions), macroeconomic environment (63 rd place – up by 2
positions), and business sophistication (63rd place – down by 2 positions).
A survey study among the management defined the biggest barriers to the pursuit of business activity to
be: tax regulations (23.2% of answers), restrictive labour market regulations (15.5%), bureaucracy
(14.6%), tax rates (11.2%) and access to financing (9.6%).
Table 29 Ranking according to the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)
United
Kingdom
10
Germany
France
Spain
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Italy
Slovakia
Poland
Ranking for
4
23
35
48
46
49
78
2013-2014
Ranking for
9
5
23
35
41
37
49
75
2014-2015
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Global
Competitiveness Report 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
In Poland, 200 representatives of top management participated in the study in 2014 (the so-called 2nd component). The
analysis of results was partially based on data derived from the survey conducted in 2013 (the so-called 1st component).
22
95
42
43
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Index of Economic Freedom 2015 – Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal
The authors of the annual Index of Economic Freedom ranking evaluate, inter alia, the freedom of
economic activity, trade policies, tax burdens, budget policies, labour market policies and level of
corruption. In the current edition of the economic freedom ranking, encompassing a total of 178
countries, Poland was ranked 42nd, rising significantly (by 8 positions) for the third consecutive year. At
present, Poland is ranked 15th among EU-28 countries. However, in recent years, our country has
recorded the biggest rise in the ranking among all European countries. Compared to last year’s ranking,
improvement has been observed in a total of 5 areas (government spending, fiscal freedom, monetary
freedom, trade freedom and freedom from corruption); in one area (business freedom) Poland received
lower scores than last year, while the results for the remaining 4 criteria (financial freedom, property
rights, labour freedom, investment freedom) remained unchanged. The highest score was noted in trade
freedom (88.0), fiscal freedom (82.1), monetary freedom (81.3), as well as financial and investment
freedom (70.0 in both cases). According to the report’s authors, the economic freedom in Poland is
restricted to the greatest extent by budget policy (47.1).
Table 30 Ranking of economic freedom
United
Czech
Kingdom
Republic
Ranking for 2014
14
18
70
49
21
26
86
57
50
Ranking for 2015
13
16
73
49
15
24
80
50
42
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Index of Economic
Freedom 2013, 2014.
World Competitiveness Yearbook 2015 – International Institute for Management Development
(IMD)
The latest World Competitiveness Yearbook prepared by IMD evaluates the competitiveness of 61
countries on the basis of more than 300 detailed criteria. Factors which are taken into account in the
course of evaluation include, among others, economic results (economic growth, international trade
results, employment, price levels etc.), public finance, fiscal policy, quality of business legislation,
efficiency of enterprises (e.g. productivity, financial situation of enterprises, management, innovation),
infrastructure (including technical, technological, scientific, healthcare and educational infrastructure). In
the current ranking of the most competitive economies Poland has ranked 33rd (down by 3 positions),
ahead of 11 EU Member States23.
Table 31 The IMD Ranking
United
Czech
Kingdom
Republic
Ranking for 2014
16
6
27
39
34
33
46
45
36
Ranking for 2015
19
10
32
37
28
29
38
46
33
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the World
Competitiveness Scoreboard 2015.
23
With respect to EU-28 countries, Malta and Luxembourg have not been included in the ranking.
96
3.2. Poland and the EU countries
In order to evaluate the progress in the implementation of the EU social and economic strategy, i.e. the
Europe 2020 strategy, a set of the so-called ten headline indicators, divided into five problem
categories, has been adopted. In the context of competitiveness, one should pay attention in particular
to indicators concerning innovation and education.
Compared to the EU average, Poland has a relatively good standing in terms of education, whereas in
the area of innovation, energy efficiency, poverty and social exclusion our country ranks far below the
EU average.
Box 8 Headline indicators – definitions
1. Employment rate age group 20-64 is the share of working people aged 20-64
in the total population in the same age group.
2. Gross domestic expenditure on R&D indicator reflects the share of gross domestic spending on
research and development in GDP. It comprises the expenditures on R&D incurred by economic
operators, higher education institutions, state budget and the private non-profit sector.
3. Greenhouse gas emissions indicator is the volume of emissions of six main greenhouse gases,
weighted by their potential impact on global warming, indexed to the base year 1990 (1990=100).
4. Share of renewable energy sources is defined as the share of electricity obtained from renewable
sources in gross final energy consumption.
5. Primary energy consumption is defined as the gross domestic consumption of energy, excluding nonenergetic consumption (e.g. where natural gas is used for chemicals production instead of combustion
for the purposes of energy generation). This figure is important for measuring actual energy
consumption and comparing the results with the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy.
6. Share of early leavers from education and training is the percentage of the population aged 18-24
with at most lower secondary education and not in further education or training.
7. Tertiary educational attainment in the population aged 30 to 34 – the percentage of population in
that age group who have successfully completed tertiary (or equivalent) education in the total population
in that age group.
8. People living in households with very low work intensity. This indicator informs about the share of
population aged 0 to 59 living in a household where the working-age individuals performed works
amounting to less than 20% of their total work potential during the past year. The work potential of a
household is the ratio of the total number of months that all working-age household members have
worked during the income reference year and the total number of months the same household members
theoretically could have worked in the same period. A working-age person is a person aged 19-59, with
the exclusion of students aged 18-24.
9. The at risk of poverty rate is the share of people with disposable income below the at risk of poverty
threshold in the total population. The threshold is set at 60% of the national median disposable income
in individual countries (after social transfers).
10. The severely materially deprived persons indicator is the share of the population declaring a lack of
financial resources to fulfil at least four out of nine needs (e.g. cannot afford a week holiday away from
home for all members of the household once a year, a colour TV, a washing machine, a car or a
telephone in the household).
97
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 32 Headline indicators of the Europe 2020 strategy – Poland compared to EU-28 countries
No.
1
2
3
4
5
Indicator value
Indicator value
Target for
Poland until
year 2020
Target for
the EU until
year 2020
2014
2013
66.5
64.9
69.2
68.4
71%
75%
R&D and innovation
Ratio of R&D expenses to
GDP
2013
2012
0.87
0.89
2.01s
2.01
1.7%
3%
Climate change and energy
Greenhouse gas emissions
indicator
2012
85.85
82.14
2011
2013
2012
2013
87.19
11.3
10.9
106.3
Reduction by
14%
compared to
1990
Reduction by
20%
compared to
1990
2012
105.9
83.21
15.0
14.3
15.48%
20%
91.7 14% increase
in energy
efficiency
(reduction in 20% increase
primary
in energy
energy
efficiency
consumption (reduction in
to a level of consumption
approx.
to approx.
92.7
96 Mtoe)
86.5 Mtoe)
2014
2013
2014
5.4b
5.6b
42.1b
11.1b
11.9b
37.9b
4.5%
10%
2013
40.5
37.1
45%
40%
2013
7.2
10.8
2012
2013
6.9
17.3
10.5
16.6
2012
2013
17.1
11.9
16.8
9.6
2012
2013
13.5
25.8
9.9
24.5
2012
26.7
Education
Percentage of early leavers
from education and training
7
Percentage of persons with
tertiary education in the 30-34
age group
Poverty and social exclusion
8
Persons living in households
with very low work intensity
(expressed as percentage of
the population)
9
Poverty risk rate (expressed
as percentage of the
population)
10
Persons at risk of material
deprivation (expressed as
percentage of the population)
Poverty or social exclusion risk
indicator (aggregate indicator
for three above items)
(expressed as percentage of
the population)
s – Eurostat estimate
b – break in continuity of data
Source: Eurostat.
6
UE-28
Name of indicator
Employment
Employment rate for persons
aged 20-64
Share of renewables in total
energy consumption
Primary energy consumption
indicator (thousand Toe;
2005=100)
Year
Poland
98
Reduction in Reduction in
the number of the number of
excluded
excluded
persons by
persons by
24.7
1.5 million
20 million
PART 2
POLAND’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN 2014
4. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
4.1. GDP dynamics and growth drivers
Over the last years, Poland’s economic activity has been steadily on the rise. Despite the fact that GDP
growth in 2012 and 2013 was rather low (the annual average growth in that period was 1.7%), it
remained positive. Polish GDP has been on the increase continually since 1992, which was not
disrupted by the 2008/2009 crisis. The stable and sustainable economic development ensures bigger
trust in the economic policy pursued by the state. It also leads to bigger interest in the domestic market
by both Polish and foreign investors.
Table 33 Changes in GDP in the years 2003-2014 (annual average growth rate for periods and comparison
of activity levels) for select EU and eurozone countries
2003-2008
2009-2014
2003-2014
2014
2002=100
2008=100
Czech
5.0
0.0
2.5
133.8
99.8
Republic
Germany
1.5
0.6
1.1
113.8
103.9
Hungary
3.0
-0.1
1.4
118.7
99.3
Poland
4.9
3.0
4.0
159.3
119.4
Slovakia
6.9
1.2
4.0
160.7
107.6
Eurozone
1.8
-0.2
0.8
110.4
99.4
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department on the basis of OECD data.
The 2008/2009 economic crisis was a test of resilience for individual economies. While many of them
clearly felt its consequences in the form of an economic downturn, decline in demand and GDP, Poland
turned out to be relatively resistant to this disturbance. Despite the fact that the growth rate dropped
substantially in 2009, mostly through investment and stock adjustments, significant spending related to
public investment projects as well as international trade exchange became the major stabilising factors.
The consecutive crisis wave in the years 2012-2013, characterised by a lower stock adjustment,
resulted in a slight decline in investments in 2012. As a result, the internal demand proved to be a
negative growth factor, as a consequence of the negative contribution of accumulation, despite a
positive contribution of consumption. Among the main growth factors, export at that time remained the
one economic growth driver facilitated by the high competitiveness of Polish enterprises. The increased
activity on main Polish export markets, observed in Q2 2013, was accompanied by a growth in
investments since the second half of the year.
99
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Year 2014 was characterized by positive trends in the economy. In the year as a whole, GDP grew by
3.4%. A significant improvement was recorded in internal demand. This was possible due to increased
consumption and recovery in investments. In 2014 investments grew by over 9%. Year 2014 was
characterized, however, by weaker external demand resulting from an unfavourable economic situation
in the external environment of the Polish economy which influenced the results achieved by Polish
export. Coupled with strong growth in imports in relation to a recovery in internal demand, the
contribution of net export in the generation of GDP was negative (-1.4 p.p.).
The results show a difference in the response of the economy to the crises from 2008/2009 and
2012/2013. Although the demand side of GDP generation was similar, the scale of adjustments was
much more significant compare to the "first wave" of the crisis. A substantial stock adjustment was
compensated by consumption coupled with a negative contribution of export.
The analysis of seasonally adjusted data pertaining to economic growth makes it possible to identify
individual phases of the business cycle, determining both the low and high point of economic activity.
The economic slowdown brought about by the financial crisis has reached its lowest point in the final
quarter of 2008. The economic recovery which began at the start of 2009 may, however, be considered
as rather limited, while the peak of Poland’s economic activity occurred in the second quarter of 2011. In
2012, the Polish economy has experienced a gradual decline in economic activity leading to a
stagnation in the second quarter of 2012 (Q/Q in seasonally adjusted terms). The recovery of economic
growth in subsequent quarters was slow, but accelerated in Q2 2013. In Q1 2015, GDP grew by 3.6%
(YoY, in non-seasonally adjusted terms).
Chart 12 GDP growth in the years 2001-2014
%
8
7.2
7
6.2
6
5.1
5
4
3.6
4.8
3.5
3
2
2.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.2
1
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS).
The substantial stock adjustment which took place in 2009 and the rebuilding of stocks in 2010 have
disrupted the long-term domestic demand growth tendency. A slow recovery in terms of consumption
and the increase in investment spending was short-term and the second crisis wave became apparent
in the results for 2012. The adjustment to the decreased level of economic activity continued in 2013.
Negative investment dynamics have persisted until Q2 2013, while a substantial acceleration in
investment growth occurred in Q1 2014. The increased investment demand enabled the growth of fixed
capital formation in 2014 (up by 9.2%). The rebuilding of stocks observed in 2014 ended in Q1 of the
current year with a stock adjustment.
100
Table 34 GDP and domestic demand growth rate in the years 2005-2014 (in constant prices)
Consumption
Gross capital
formation
of which:
including
C
IC
PC
A
GFCF
2005
2.7
2.3
3.6
1.6
8.7
2006
4.8
4.6
5.5
16.8
13.3
2007
5.6
6.4
3.0
23.7
19.2
2008
5.9
6.1
5.1
2.2
8.4
2009
3.5
3.3
3.6
-12.7
-1.9
2010
2.8
2.5
3.3
9.7
-0.4
2011
1.7
3.0
-2.3
12.2
9.3
2012
0.7
1.0
0.2
-4.3
-1.5
2013
1.4
1.2
2.1
-3.5
1.1
2014
3.4
3.1
4.7
11.4
9.2
C – overall consumption
DD – domestic demand
E – export of goods and services
PC – public consumption
A – gross capital formation
GDP – gross domestic product
Years
Domestic
demand
International
trade
GDP
DD
E
I
2.4
9.7
6.3
3.5
7.2
15.6
18.1
6.2
9.5
10.2
15.8
7.2
5.0
7.0
9.4
3.9
-0.3
-6.3
-12.4
2.6
4.2
12.9
14.0
3.7
3.8
7.9
5.5
4.8
-0.4
4.3
-0.6
1.8
0.4
4.8
1.8
1.7
4.9
5.7
9.1
3.4
IC – individual consumption
I – import of goods and services
GFCF – gross fixed capital formation
The fairly notable increase in investment spending in 2014 was partially the result of the increasing
degree of utilisation of the production capacity of enterprises, observed for the past two years. The
investment cycle and the resulting high investment dynamics of enterprises, especially in the second
half of the year, were the primary factors responsible for achieved result. This was supported by a
relatively high cost competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time, public sector investment spending
grew again in 2014.
Chart 13 Demand decomposition of GDP in individual quarters in the years 2008-2015
%
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Individual consumption
Public consumption
Inventories
Net exports
GDP
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central Statistical
Office data.
In the subsequent quarters of 2014, GDP growth oscillated around 0.9% compared to the previous
quarter (sa). On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth rate exceeded the level of 3% in individual
quarters. This allowed for the achievement of GDP growth at the level of 3.4% in the year 2014 as a
whole (YoY). The group of EU countries was characterized by stable GDP growth rate which amounted
on average to 1.3% in individual quarters. In this context, it is necessary to distinguish the Irish
economy, whose GDP growth rate in individual quarters was among the highest recorded. The best
101
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
quarter for both the EU and eurozone was the first quarter of 2014. GDP growth rate in the EU and
eurozone in Q1 grew by 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Seasonally adjusted quarterly data indicates a
recovery in economic growth in Q2 2013, despite its pace remains rather slow, especially in the euro
area.
For the first time since two years, real GDP growth rate in 2014 exceeded the potential growth rate of
the Polish economy estimated at approx. 3.2%24, resulting in a negative, albeit slightly reduced, output
gap. Despite the slight improvement of cycle conditions for pursuing business activity, supply still
remains predominant over demand in Polish economy. In the period of 2012-2014, the total output gap
was larger than in the period of economic crisis (2009-2010). This is reflected, inter alia, in indicators
representing the nominal sphere of the economy.
Table 35 Demand decomposition of GDP in the years 2008-2014 (in percentage points)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total consumption, including
4.6
2.8
2.3
1.3
0.6
1.1
2.7
3.6
2.0
1.5
1.8
0.6
0.7
1.8
Public consumption
0.9
0.7
0.6
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.9
Gross capital formation, including
0.5
-3.1
2.0
2.6
-0.9
-0.7
2.2
1.8
-0.4
-0.1
1.8
-0.3
0.2
1.7
Inventories
-1.3
-2.7
2.0
0.7
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
Net exports, including
-1.2
2.9
-0.5
0.9
2.1
1.3
-1.4
Exports
2.7
-2.4
4.8
3.2
1.9
2.2
2.6
Imports
4.0
-5.3
5.4
2.3
-0.3
0.8
4.0
GDP
3.9
2.6
3.7
4.8
1.8
1.7
3.4
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central
Statistical Office data.
A regularity pertaining to the changes in the growth rate of domestic and external demand can be
verified in a multiannual perspective. The recurring decline in internal demand was accompanied by an
increase in the share of net exports. Among the factors which give rise to this volatility it is necessary to
note the high demand for imports of both investments and stocks. Year 2014 brought about a recovery
in the capital accumulation and a significant increase in investments, while the factor supporting the
scale of investment growth was the continued rebuilding of stocks. A change in the trend dominating the
stock adjustment could be observed only in the last quarter of the year.
The structural pre-requisites for growth and challenges faced by the economic and structural policies
are best defined by the analysis of growth factors based on the neoclassical production function. It
allows to determine processes which may become the targets of policy measures in the immediate term
and to indicate processes determined by pre-requisites, while delays in the transmission of economic
policy measures do not allow for reversing unfavourable trends. A good example are demographic prerequisites; the share of working-age population in the overall population has been declining since 2010
at an increasing rate. However, this process is mitigated by favourable labour market conditions. Both
the professional activity of the working-age population and the share of the employed among the
professionally active are growing.
Next to counteracting the negative demographic trends through labour market policy, a key challenge
for economic policy, stemming from the exhaustion of simple growth reserves, is the slowdown of the
productivity growth. A higher level of fixed production capital causes its productivity to increase, albeit at
an increasingly slower rate. The key measures of economic policy in this area pertain to stimulating the
process of creating and implementing innovations.
Convergence programme. 2015 Update, April 2015 – calculations compliant with the new methodology of the European
Commission
24
102
After two years of decline, year 2014 brought about an increase in the productivity of production factors
in Poland. Worth noting is the stable and high contribution of capital, i.e. the growing stock of fixed
assets used in the economy. The situation on the labour market also looks favourable. Professional
activity is continuously rising, partially as a result of the pursued policy counteracting early deactivation.
Table 36 Economic growth factors in Poland in the years 2003-2014* (contribution in percentage points)
Real GDP
Total factor
Capital
Share of working
Employment
Number
Activity rate
per capita productivity (2)
(1)
age population
rate
of hours
2003
3.7
2.7
0.8
0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.2
2004
5.2
4.3
0.6
0.4
-0.3
0.6
-0.3
2005
3.6
1.0
0.8
0.3
0.7
1.1
-0.3
2006
6.3
2.8
0.8
0.4
-1.1
3.3
0.0
2007
7.2
2.8
1.0
0.2
-0.2
3.3
0.2
2008
3.9
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.7
1.9
0.0
2009
2.5
1.5
1.2
0.1
0.9
-0.7
-0.5
2010
2.7
2.6
1.1
-0.2
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
2011
4.7
3.4
1.2
-0.1
0.4
0.0
-0.2
2012
1.7
-0.2
1.5
-0.3
0.8
-0.3
0.3
2013
1.8
-0.4
1.3
-0.4
0.5
0.8
0.0
2014
3.5
0.8
1.4
-0.5
0.8
1.0
0.0
1) Due to the delayed effect of fixed capital formation on the production growth, the growth rate indicators were moved 1 year
back.
2) Calculation according to the neoclassical production function: ∆lnY/pop = u ∆lnL/pop + (1-u) ∆ lnK/pop + ∆lnA, where:
Y – Gross Domestic Product
L – Labour resources (annual average of persons employed in the economy)
L=population *activity rate*employment rate*number of hours
K – Capital resources (the value of gross fixed assets in the economy)
u and (1-u)=weights of both production factors: Labour factor u=2/3 and capital factor (1-u=1/3)
A – the so-called Solow residual, that is the total factor productivity (TFP)
* Due to updated information on population numbers, indicators for 2012 are not comparable to other years
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), Labour Force Survey, Eurostat and calculations by the Strategy and Analyses
Department of the Ministry of Economy.
Table 37 Employment rate in Poland among persons aged 15-65 in comparison to the EU (in percentages)
2008
UE-28
65.7
UE-15
67.1
Poland
59.2
Source: Eurostat.
2009
64.4
65.7
59.3
2010
64.1
65.3
58.9
2011
64.2
65.4
59.3
2012
64.1
65.1
59.7
2013
64.1
65.0
60.0
2014
64.8
65.5
61.7
It is difficult to evaluate the demographic factor, i.e. the share of working-age employees. However, it is
worth to point out the trend of continuous growth in the economic activity of the population, resulting
from the measures intended to counteract the phenomenon of early deactivation among older age
groups, especially among women. Since the decline recorded during the period of economic slowdown
in 2010, the employment rate has been gradually growing and amounted to 61.7% in 2014. As a result,
the gap between the indications for EU-15 and Poland (13.2 p.p. in 2014) dropped to 3.8 p.p., i.e. more
than threefold. What is more, after the crisis in 2008, when the employment rate which best represents
the situation on the labour market, reached a record level, Poland experienced a significant
improvement in this regard, while the average employment rate in the EU has declined. At the same
time, the labour intensity measured in hours worked has stabilised. Despite the fact that the value of this
indicator is still higher than in the entire EU, it remains at a level similar to value recorded in countries
from our region.
103
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 38 Average number of weekly working hours per employed person in Poland compared to other EU
country groups averages
2008
UE-27
37.8
UE-15
37.1
Poland
41.0
Source: Eurostat.
2009
37.7
36.9
40.7
2010
37.5
36.8
40.6
2011
37.4
36.7
40.5
2012
37.3
36.6
40.7
2013
37.2
36.4
40.7
2014
37.2
36.4
40.7
The expected return to the previously recorded growth of productivity indicates that the structural
pre-requisites for growth in the immediate term should be assessed positively. In addition, the crisis had
a substantial, positive impact on trends observed prior to 2008. Therefore, it should be expected that the
positive trend of improvement in the value of capital will continue. Demographic challenges related to
the declining working-age population will be negated by growing professional activity and employment,
as there is still a gap between indicators for developed EU countries and Poland. Labour intensity in
Poland is also higher. Further professional activation and employment growth should, however, result in
a decline in productivity. The level of capital as well as improvement in infrastructure and the labour
factor quality should sustain the productivity growth trend and enhance the process of real convergence.
4.2. Internal demand
In 2014, GDP components on the demand side have been reshuffled. Following a two-year domination
of external demand in the generation of economic growth, internal demand reclaimed the role of a
growth driver. In 2014, its contribution to GDP was positive and amounted to nearly 5%. Among the
determinants of this process were intensified investments and the rebuilding of stocks. The recovery of
consumption demand experienced in 2013 has also continued in the subsequent quarters of 2014. At
the turn of 2014/2015 the stocks have been adjusted and the investment growth rate has accelerated.
Public consumption significantly accelerated in Q2 2014, resulting in growth at the level of 4.7% in the
entire year and increasing its positive contribution to economic growth. The stable growth in individual
consumption in individual quarters (approx. 3%) resulted in this consumption rising by 3.1% in the entire
year. The acceleration of the growth rate of private consumption had a positive effect in terms of its
contribution to GDP. Consumption grew in relation to a higher growth rate of real disposable income of
households. This was possible thanks to the improving situation on the labour market. It also resulted in
better consumer confidence and was accompanied by higher consumer loan exposure.
Table 39 Changes in consumption expenditures in the years 2003-2014 in comparison to other countries
2003-2008
2009-2014
2003-2014
2014
2002=100
2008=100
Czech
2.9
0.3
1.6
120.9
101.7
Republic
Germany
0.7
1.0
0.8
110.6
106.3
Hungary
2.0
-0.8
0.6
107.3
95.0
Poland
4.2
2.2
3.2
146.0
114.1
Slovakia
5.1
0.4
2.7
137.9
102.5
Eurozone
1.5
0.1
0.8
109.9
100.3
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Eurostat data.
The situation on the labour market has improved. Labour demand has increased at the beginning of the
year and accelerated in the third quarter. Employment has been growing since the beginning of 2014;
average employment in the enterprise sector amounted to 5,529 thousand people in 2014 and was
0.6% higher than in 2013. The real wage growth rate experienced successive growth following the
104
decline recorded in Q2 (Q/Q), with the annual growth remaining above 3%. The purchasing power of
wages grew in the second half of the year due to deflation. Real gross disposable income in the
household sector grew in the entire 2014 by 2.9%. The improvement of the situation on the labour
market and the relaxation of criteria and conditions for granting consumer loans by banks facilitated the
greater willingness to take out loans. In March 2013, the downward trend pertaining to the amount of
debt under consumer loans has been reversed. In September 2014, the utilization of consumer loans to
finance consumption reached an unprecedented level and exceeded PLN 137 billion, despite the fact
that the share of loans in financing consumption has decreased. In 2014, both real estate and
apartment loans increased by over 8%. Household obligations under foreign currency loans in both of
the above categories have declined by nearly 2%. The nominal value of household debt under loans
and credits grew in 2014 by PLN 27.6 billion to the total amount of PLN 586.7 billion. The abovementioned growth is higher than in the year 2012-2013.
Chart 14 Domestic and foreign demand contribution to GDP growth in the years 2005-2014
%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Domestic demand
2010
2011
Foreign demand
2012
2013
2014
GDP
Chart 15 Contribution of domestic demand components to GDP growth in the years 2008-2015
% 8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Public consumption
Inventories
Domestic demand
GDP
105
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
At the end of 2014, the level of household financial assets amounted to PLN 1,625.7 billion, i.e. 1.0%
less than in the previous quarter. The level of household financial obligations at that time amounted to
PLN 625.1 billion, i.e. nearly the same as in the previous quarter and 5.4% more compared to the
previous year. In 2014, the growth rate of household financial assets slowed down to 4.5% (from 9.5%
in 2013). The fastest increase was recorded in cash and total deposits, while a decline was observed
with respect to long-term debt securities, equity participations and participation units in investment
funds. Deposits still account for the biggest share in household asset structure and their share has
increased compared to the previous year. As a result of the transfer of funds from pension funds to the
Social Insurance Institution, the household asset structure has changed.
At the end of 2014, the total value of assets held in insurance as well as retirement and disability
pension schemes of the household sector amounted to PLN 268.3 billion and was 35.2% lower
compared to the previous year.25 As a result, the share of this asset category has decreased from
26.6% in 2013 to 16.5% in 2014, while increasing the share of other accounts receivable by 9.5 p.p. to
11.7% of all assets.
Chart 16 Changes in annual private consumption (data seasonally adjusted) and consumer prices in the
years 2008-2015
%
7
CPI (right axis)
Individual consumption (left axis)
6 %
5
6
4
5
3
4
2
3
1
2
0
1
-1
0
-2
In 2014, the domestic demand grew by 4.9% compared to the previous year. It was a result of an
increase in accumulation and consumption. According to quarterly data, domestic demand has been
growing continuously since Q3 2013, after a number of declines recorded in 2012-2013. The maximum
growth (YoY) in domestic demand was observed in Q2 2014 (6.1%). A high investment growth was
observed in all quarters. The contribution of this category to economic growth considerably exceeded
1 p.p. in each quarter, reaching the level of 2.3 p.p. in the final quarter. In Q2 2014, the factor related to
the rebuilding of stocks has exerted the most powerful influence. The average contribution of household
consumer spending amounted to 1.8 p.p.
This operation was recorded on the financial accounts of the household sector by deducting the amounts of transactions in
the form of assets under pension rights from the position "Insurance as well as retirement and disability pension schemes",
while at the same time increasing the position "Other accounts receivable".
25
106
4.3. Impact of investments on GDP dynamics
Despite substantial fluctuations, investment expenditures constituted one of the main growth factors that
remained stable in individual periods. In the years 2003-2014, the average growth rate of investment
expenditures amounted to 5.9% (in real terms), meaning it was faster than the economic growth rate.
Poland achieved the best results compared to other countries in the region. In 2009-2010, Poland
experienced a decline in investment activity. Another decline occurred in 2012 in effect of the so-called
second crisis wave. However, the scale of those declines was moderate. In 2014, the gross fixed capital
formation was comparable to the average recorded in 2003-2008. The gradual recovery of this
important growth factors occurred in the second half of 2013, accelerated in 2014 and continues in
2015. The growth of investments in the first quarter of 2015 amounted to 11.4%.
Table 40 Average dynamics of gross fixed capital formation in the years 2003-2014
2003-2008
2009-2014
2014
2003-2014
2002=100
Czech
5.6
-2.0
1.7
122.7
Republic
Germany
1.9
0.6
1.2
115.8
Hungary
3.0
-1.5
0.7
109.3
Poland
9.5
2.5
5.9
199.7
Slovakia
6.1
-1.4
2.2
130.6
eurozone
2.6
-2.6
0.0
100.0
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department on the basis of OECD data.
2008=100
88.4
103.5
91.4
116.1
91.6
85.6
The business surveys indicate that the degree of utilization of production capacities in the industrial
manufacturing sectors in Poland is high when taking into account its historical values. However, it still
remains below corresponding indicators for the EU and eurozone, but above values recorded in the
countries in our region. Differences between values indicated for Poland and developed EU countries
have decreased slightly after the crisis, therefore the current high level of production capacity utilization
suggests the intensification of investment processes in the Polish economy in the immediate
perspective.
Table 41 Accumulation and investment rates as compared to changes in GDP and fixed capital formation
(in percentages)
2007 2008
GDP growth rate
7.2
3.9
Growth rate of gross fixed capital formation
19.2
8.4
Gross accumulation rate
24.8 24.3
Gross fixed capital formation rate
21.9 22.6
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department
Statistical Office (GUS) data.
2009
2.6
-1.9
20.2
21.1
of the
2010
3.7
-0.4
21.0
19.8
Ministry
2011 2012 2013 2014
4.8
1.8
1.7
3.4
9.3 -1.5
1.1
9.2
22.2 20.6 19.1 20.2
20.3 19.4 18.8 19.5
of Economy on the basis of the Central
Table 42 Gross public and private sector expenditures in the years 2008-2014 (as a percentage of GDP)
EU-28
private
eurozone
sector
Poland
EU-28
public
eurozone
sector
Poland
Source: AMECO.
2008
n.a
19.6
17.8
n.a
3.3
4.8
2009
n.a
17.5
16.1
n.a
3.6
5.1
2010
n.a
17.2
14.2
n.a
3.4
5.6
107
2011
n.a
17.6
14.4
n.a
3.1
5.9
2012
16.6
17.2
14.7
3.0
2.9
4.7
2013
16.3
16.7
14.7
2.9
2.8
4.1
2014
16.4
16.8
15.1
2.9
2.7
4.4
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In 2014, the level of investments made by enterprises increased by 8.7%. The most substantial increase
pertained to expenditure related to means of transport (23.6%). The decrease observed for the last two
years with regard to expenditures on buildings and other structures has been halted; in 2014, this
position experienced a 5.5% growth which combined with a faster growth rate with regard to the
purchase of machinery and equipment (11.3%) signifies that the share of projects consisting in the
development of the production potential of enterprises will increase at the cost of modernisation
projects. The intensified investment activity encouraged companies to increase their debt under longterm loans (20%). Energy and transport companies showed the highest activity in this regard. This was
facilitated by the high capability of enterprises to finance new projects and low costs of acquiring
external financing.
Chart 17 Changes in gross fixed capital formation (left axis) and GDP (right axis) in the years 2008-2015
%
20
6
15
5
10
%
4
5
3
0
2
-5
-10
1
-15
0
GDP
A recovery in investment activity is also confirmed by the growing number of investment tasks with the
simultaneous decline of the estimated value of undertaken investments resulting from deflation during
that period. The recovery in investment activity is extensive, as it pertains to main sectors, including
industry, transport and trade. Nevertheless, the investment activity in construction is still declining.
Chart 18 Contribution of individual components of gross fixed capital formation
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Dwellings
Other buildings and structures
Transport equipment
Other machinery and equipment
Cultivated assets
Intangible fixed assets
Total fixed assets
108
2014
4.4. Impact of exports on GDP dynamics
Since the beginning of the transformation, export constituted one of the main and most stable factors
stimulating economic growth in Poland. This has not changed following Poland's accession to the EU,
similarly to other countries in our region, although those countries experienced higher growth prior to the
crisis. However, the export growth rate slowed down after the crisis in 2008, albeit in the case of Poland
not as substantially as in other countries from our region and the euro area. In effect, the average export
growth rate following 2008 was 4.7%, i.e. the fastest among the countries in the region. Despite a
moderate scale of recovery experienced by the trade partners of Poland, in 2014 export continued to
have a positive influence on economic growth in Poland. A recovery in domestic demand translated into
a growth in imports, resulting in a negative contribution of net exports to economic growth.
Table 43 Average dynamics of changes in the export of goods and services (in real terms) in the years
2003-2014
2003-2008
2009-2014
2003-2014
2014
2002=100
2008=100
Czech
14.1
4.3
9.1
283.3
128.5
Republic
Germany
7.2
2.4
4.7
174.3
115.0
Hungary
13.2
3.0
7.9
250.3
119.2
Poland
10.2
4.7
7.4
236.0
131.9
Slovakia
15.3
4.4
9.7
303.4
129.3
eurozone
5.0
1.9
3.4
150.0
112.2
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department on the basis of Eurostat data.
Chart 19 Contribution of export and import of goods and services to economic growth in the years 20082015
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Exports
Imports
Net exports
GDP
The contribution of net export to GDP was neutral in the first quarter of 2014 and negative in the next
three quarters, with a positive contribution to economic growth observed in Q1 2015. Import had a
negative contribution to economic growth in all quarters of 2014 (with highest negative contribution in
Q2 2014). Export gradually recovered in the second half of the year in relation to the depreciation of the
Polish zloty against the American dollar and maintaining a relatively stable position against the Euro.
Despite the recovery in internal demand, factors which hindered the growth of import included the
suspension of the process of rebuilding stocks in the second half of 2014, as it significantly contributed
to the achievement of a positive contribution of net export in Q1 2015.
109
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The strong trend towards faster growth of export than GDP translates into a gradual increase in the
openness of the Polish economy to international exchange. On average, the export growth rate (in real
terms) in the years 2003-2008, i.e. prior to the crisis, was twice as high as GDP growth rate. Greater
openness to international trade allows to limit the impact of internal disturbances, but increases
sensitivity to external disturbances. It is necessary to note that following the decline in the share of
Polish export in international trade in the years 2010-2012, in 2013-2014 this share is once again
growing, which means that the growth rate of trade in Poland is higher than in the global economy. The
increase in trade translates into a greater impact of trade agreements, including regional and supraregional agreements, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
Among the main factors invigorating Polish export, next to those determining production costs and
foreign exchange rate changes, it is necessary to mention also non-price factors whose role will be
growing together with the stabilisation of the global economic situation. This applies mainly to the
growing role of branding as well as to the adjustment of products to the clients’ tastes on individual
markets and effective marketing. Services related to export also played an important role.
In 2014, the deficit on the current account of the balance of payments amounted to EUR 5.3 billion
(compared to EUR 5.2 billion in 2013), remaining at the level of 1.3% in relation to GDP. The record
level of capital inflow recorded on the capital account was almost twice higher than the deficit on the
current account and amounted to EUR 10.8 billion. The surplus on the financial account experienced a
decline: the growth of Polish investments abroad neutralised the substantial inflow of direct foreign
investments to our country; the situation was similar as regards portfolio investments. Other Polish
investments abroad also increased, while the inflow of analogous investments to Poland declined. In
effect, the negative (net) international investment position of Poland has experienced a slight decline in
relation to GDP (the nominal value of which increased at the same time) from 68.3% in 2013 to 67.4%
of GDP in 2014. A more appropriate benchmark for the assessment of external balance, i.e. net external
debt26, experienced a much more significant decline from 36% of GDP to 20.1% of GDP in 2014.
Chart 20 Changes in the export of goods and services (left axis) and economic growth (right axis) in the
years 2008-2014
%
20
%
6
15
5
10
4
5
3
0
2
-5
-10
1
-15
0
Exports
GDP
26
Net external debt does not include stable forms of capital inflow in the form of equities and derivatives.
110
Chart 21 Relative unit labour costs and real effective exchange rate (right panel) in Poland compared to
other countries and the eurozone (2005=100).
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
110.0
140.0
Czech Republic
Germany
130.0
Hungary
Poland
120.0
Slovakia
Eurozone
Czech Republic
Germany
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Eurozone
110.0
105.0
100.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
90.0
85.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
80.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: OECD and Eurostat.
Relative unit labour costs in the entire economy are stable and after the significant growth in 2008
remain at the level similar to the one recorded in 2005. The real effective exchange rate also remains at
a stable level, as is the case in other countries from our region. The only exception is Slovakia, where
relative unit labour costs increased significantly and remain at a high level since 2010.
4.5. Contribution of sectors to GDP formation
In 2014, the gross value added rose by 3.2% compared to 2013, resulting in a slightly lower growth rate
than that of GDP. Value added constituted nearly 89% of GDP. The remaining part consisted of tax on
products, reduced by subsidies on products. In 2014, all sectors had a positive contribution to economic
growth. Sections with the largest contribution to economic growth included industry (0.9 p.p.) as well as
trade and repair (0.6 p.p.). Transport and storage as well as construction also had a substantial
contribution to economic growth – with a contribution of 0.3 p.p. each.
In 2009, the contribution of industry to economic growth was negative for the first time. In 2010, this
sector, which at the time of rapid economic growth expands faster than total value added, quickly
rebounded to the trend of positive contribution to economic growth. In the years 2010-2011, when the
contribution of the industry to the creation of value added attained similar values (1.9 p.p.), the
contribution of this sector was larger than that of market services. In subsequent year, the contribution
of this sector was not as substantial. In 2014, the contribution of industry to value added amounted to
0.9 p.p. The construction sector underwent considerable fluctuations. In 2008 and 2012, value added in
this sector experienced a decline. The contribution of this sector was the highest in the years 20092011, when the growth rate accelerated. In 2013, the construction sector had a neutral impact on
economic growth, but showed signs of moderate recovery in 2014. The non-market services sector
continued to have a minimal yet positive contribution.
111
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 44 Changes in GDP and gross value added in the years 2008-2014 (expressed in percentages)
Specification
GDP
Added value
including:
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Trade; repair of motor vehicles
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and catering
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities;
administrative and support service activities
Public administration, defense, education, human
health and social work activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service
activities; activities of household and extra-territorial
organizations and bodies
2008
3.9
3.8
2009
2.6
2.9
2010
3.7
3.8
2011
4.8
4.7
2012
1.8
1.8
2013
1.7
1.8
2014
3.4
3.2
-2.8
5.9
-0.8
5.3
-5.4
-1.3
9.2
11.6
0.0
13.1
-0.3
11.6
4.6
-3.5
2.5
4.0
-8.8
1.2
-6.7
8.6
6.1
3.9
0.5
0.2
1.2
-1.9
5.6
1.3
8.5
10.8
-2.6
12.5
7.7
6.5
9.0
4.2
-4.7
2.0
-3.2
3.2
11.7
4.2
10.1
-10.5
1.9
6.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
6.6
3.8
13.2
-1.1
3.8
4.1
4.7
3.5
6.5
2.6
0.7
3.2
1.3
10.5
5.3
0.2
5.4
4.3
4.2
1.7
1.3
4.6
0.9
0.9
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.8
1.4
5.8
3.5
3.4
5.2
1.7
Table 45 Changes in the structure of value added in the years 2005, 2008-2014, in current prices
Specification
2005 2008
Agriculture
3.3
2.9
Industry
25.2
25.0
Construction
6.9
7.9
19.1
18.7
5.5
5.4
1.2
1.2
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.2
6.1
5.6
Professional, scientific and technical
activities; administrative and
6.5
7.2
support service activities
O-Q
Public administration, defense,
education, human health and social
15.5
15.3
work activities
R-U
Arts, entertainment and recreation;
other service activities; activities of
2.4
2.3
household and extra-territorial
organizations and bodies
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of
A
B-E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M-N
2009
2.9
24.8
8.3
19.1
5.6
1.2
4.1
3.9
5.2
2010
3.0
24.7
8.3
19.4
5.3
1.2
3.9
4.1
5.3
2011
3.3
25.4
8.3
18.5
5.5
1.2
3.8
4.3
5.2
2012
3.2
25.2
7.6
19.2
6.1
1.2
3.8
4.0
5.2
2013
3.3
24.9
7.4
19.1
6.0
1.3
3.8
4.2
5.1
2014
3.4
25.1
7.5
19.2
6.6
1.3
3.5
4.1
5.1
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.4
15.3
15.4
15.0
14.8
14.9
14.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.6
the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central
The knowledge of the sectoral structure of GDP formation and of the dynamics of the gross value added
in individual sectors enables the performance of a sectoral decomposition of sources of economic
growth.
112
Chart 22 Sectoral decomposition of GDP growth in the years 2005-2014
%
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Trade and repair
Transport…
Accomodation…
Information…
Financial activities…
Professional…
Public administration…
Others
Value added
GDP
Source: Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central
4.6. GDP per capita in Poland compared to other countries
The nominal value of GDP in 2014 amounted to PLN 1,728.7 billion. Taking into account the purchasing
power of money, GDP per capita increased from the average level of 49.8% for the EU-27 countries in
2005 to 69% in 2014.
According to the estimates by Eurostat, the Polish GDP per capita increased (in real terms) in 2014 by
3.5%, compared to the increase of 1.1% in the entire EU.
Table 46 Comparison of GDP per capita of selected EU countries (according to purchasing power parity)
in the years 2005, 2010-2014
in EUR thous.
in relation to EU average (UE28=100)
Eurozone
2005
23.2
25.1
2010
25.3
27.4
2011
26.0
28.1
2012
26.5
28.4
2013
26.6
28.4
2014
27.3
29.1
2005
100.0
108.3
2010
100.0
108.1
2011
100.0
108.0
2012
100.0
107.4
2013
100.0
106.8
2014
100.0
106.3
Czech
Republic
18.6
20.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.7
80.3
81.2
82.9
82.4
82.5
83.0
31.8
17.0
16.6
18.9
32.5
17.1
17.4
19.6
32.6
17.6
17.9
20.0
33.5
18.6
18.8
20.8
116.0
62.1
49.8
59.7
119.3
64.8
61.8
73.1
122.1
65.3
64.0
72.7
122.8
64.6
65.7
73.9
122.4
66.3
67.3
75.3
122.5
68.1
68.9
76.1
EU-28
Germany
26.9 30.2
14.4 16.4
Poland
11.6 15.6
Slovakia
13.8 18.5
Source: Eurostat STRIND.
Hungary
113
5. LABOUR MARKET
5.1. Employed persons
In 2014, the situation on the labour market slightly improved, although negative tendencies were not
overcome in any decisive way. The number of employed persons aged 15 and over amounted to 15.9
million, while the number of employed persons aged 20-64 totalled 15.5 million. During the said period,
the employment rate indicating the number of employed persons aged 20-64 in the overall population in
this age group amounted to 66.5% (the target for Poland to be achieved by 2020 in accordance with the
Europe 2020 strategy is 71%).
Table 47 Persons aged 20-64 employed in years 2008-2014
Specification
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of employed (in thous.)
15,400
15,491
15,100
15,204
15,244
15,227
15,508
Previous year = 100
103.8
100.6
97.5
100.7
100.3
99.9
101.8
Source: Labour Force Survey, Eurostat, calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
Table 48 Situation on the labour market in 2008-2014 in the age group of 20-64 (in percentages)
Specification
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Employment activity rate27
69.9
70.6
71.1
71.3
71.9
72.3
73.0
Emploment rate
65.0
64.9
64.3
64.5
64.7
64.9
66.5
Following the systematic increase of the employment rate for the EU-28 from 2002 onwards, the onset
of the economic crisis in 2009 and 2010 has caused the trend to be reversed, leading to a decrease in
employment rate by 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. In 2014, employment rate amounted to
69.2% (up by 0.8 p.p.). The employment rate in Poland (66.5%) is still one of the lowest in the European
Union. An employment rate lower than in Poland was recorded in Bulgaria (65.1%), Romania (65.7%),
Spain (59.9%), Greece (53.3%), Croatia (59.2%), Slovakia (65.9%), Italy (59.9%) and Malta (66.3%). 28
In Poland, similarly as in most EU countries, the level of employment of young persons poses a serious
problem. Only a few countries can show high employment rates in this age group – the Netherlands and
Malta have an employment rate of nearly 70%. Together with the deterioration of the economic situation
in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009, the trend consisting in the improvement of
employment rates among the youngest employee groups was reversed. In 2014, only 24% of young
Greeks and nearly 30% of persons aged 20-24 in Spain and Italy, as well as more than 30% of such
persons in Croatia, Bulgaria and Luxembourg were employed. Poland, with its employment rate of
Economic activity rate is a percentage share of professionally active population (the working population or the
unemployed) in the total population of the specific category. The employment rate is the percentage share of the working
population in the total population of the specific category, whereas the unemployment rate is a percentage share of the
unemployed in the professionally active population. Registered unemployment encompasses those individuals who, in
accordance with the act on employment and counteracting unemployment, are designated as unemployed and registered at
the appropriate district employment agency.
28 LFS Eurostat data for the age group of 20-64 years.
27
115
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
43.8% in this age group, also negatively deviates from the EU average. A distinct disproportion (more
than 9 percentage points) between the figures for Poland and the EU is also visible in the older age
groups (for persons aged 55-64).
Chart 23 Employment rates for Poland and EU-28, according to age groups (for persons aged 20-64)
In 2014, average employment level29 amounted to 8,218 thousand (up by 0.2% compared to 2013). The
average employment in the enterprise sector in 2014 run at the level of 5,529 thousand, which is 0.6%
more than in 2013 (when compared to the decrease of 1% the year before). Growth was recorded in
branches: information and communication, administrative and support service activities, and in
manufacturing. The most substantial decrease in employment occurred in construction, mining and
quarrying as well as in the field of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.
Among the divisions having a significant share in employment in 2014, an increase in average
employment was noted, inter alia, in enterprises engaging in manufacture of furniture (up by 6.4%),
manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (up by 5.4%), manufacture of leather and
related products (up by 5%), manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers (up by 5%),
manufacture of textiles (up by 4.9%), and manufacture of rubber and plastic products (up by 4.6%). The
sharpest decline in employment occurred in the construction of buildings (down by 11.1%). Other
sectors in which a decrease in employment was recorded include mining of hard coal and lignite (down
by 9.5%), construction of land and water engineering structures (down by 6.3%), specialised
construction activities (down by 5.1%), and manufacture of wearing apparel (down by 4.7%).
Except for business entities employing up to 9 persons and without individual agriculture, foundations, associations,
political parties, labour unions, social organisations, employer organisations, economic and professional associations and
activity connected with national defense and public security.
29
116
Table 49 Average employment in the enterprise sector in years 2012-2014 (in thousands)
2012
2013
Total
5,549
5,494
Industry
2,471
2,446
Mining and quarrying
171
168
Manufacturing
2,045
2,029
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
144
136
Water supply; sewerage, waste
110
114
management and remediation activities
Construction
486
444
Trade and repair
1,122
1,115
482
484
112
110
171
175
97
94
Administrative and support service
308
322
activities
Source: Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
2013/2012
99.0
99.0
98.5
99.2
94.1
2014
5,529
2,473
157
2,071
128
2014/2013
100.6
101.1
93.5
102.1
94.5
102.7
116
101.7
91.3
99.4
100.3
98.2
102.3
96.9
104.5
410
1,130
484
108
180
96
330
92.3
101.3
100.1
98.8
103.1
101.9
102.4
Chart 24 Average employment in the enterprise sector in years 2007–2015
Source: Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of
the Ministry of Economy.
5.2. Unemployment and unemployment rate
In 2014, there were 1,515.1 thousand unemployed persons in Poland within the 20-64 age group. The
number of unemployed persons decreased by 222.2 thousand compared to 2013. The unemployment
rate (LFS) totalled 8.9%, whereby in the case of women it amounted to 9.5%, while in the case of men
to 8.4%.30
According to the registered unemployment statistics, 1,825 thousand persons remained unemployed as
at the end of 2014. The registered unemployment rate amounted to 11.5% and was 1.9 p.p. lower
compared to the previous year.
30
LFS, Central Statistical Office (GUS) data.
117
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
From 2009 onwards, however, the number of unemployed persons registered with employment offices
has been increasing from year to year until 2013. The highest increase was recorded in 2009, when
unemployment soared to 1,893 thousand, i.e. grew by 28.4%. At the end of 2014, there were 332.7
thousand less persons in the unemployment register than in the previous year (down by 15.4%). The
very large territorial diversity of unemployment has persisted. At the end of 2014, the level of registered
unemployment decreased in all voivodeships compared to 2013. The highest increase in unemployment
rate was recorded in Warmińsko-Mazurskie (18.9%), Kujawsko-Pomorskie (15.7%) and
Zachodniopomorskie (15.6%) voivodeships. The lowest unemployment rate was observed in
Wielkopolskie (7.8%), Śląskie (9.6%), Mazowieckie (9.8%) and Małopolskie (9.9%) voivodeships.
Chart 25 LFS unemployment rate and registered unemployment rate in the years 2007-2015
Source: LFS, Eurostat, Central Statistical Office (GUS), calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry
of Economy.
The unemployment in Poland tends to be long-term in nature. Among the unemployed registered
at employment offices, more than 57% are the long-term unemployed.
5.3. Structural mismatch on the labour market
Modernisation and restructuring processes in the Polish economy are conducive to changes in the
labour demand structure both on the national and local labour markets. Changes in the labour demand
structure require an appropriate adaptation of labour supply through the development of employee
qualifications and an increase in their mobility related to their willingness to work outside their current
place of residence.
There is a clear correlation between the level of education and the unemployment rate. Higher
education remains a factor which significantly decreases the risk of unemployment. Furthermore, it is
necessary to note that the unemployment rate in this group in Poland was lower than the EU-28
average and in 2014, as in the previous year, it amounted to 4.7% (EU-28: 6.1%).
118
Chart 26 Unemployment rate according to level of education (within the 20-64 age group) in 2014
% 25
Total
Low secondary, elementary and incomplete elementary
Higher secondary
University
20
15
10
5
0
Total
Men
Women
Total
Men
EU-28
Women
Poland
Source: A study by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of LFS, Central Statistical
Office (GUS) and Eurostat data.
The improvement of vocational qualifications is not a common phenomenon in Poland. In the period of
2011–2013, only 4.5% of all the unemployed indicated the lack of qualifications required by the
employer as a (subjective) reason for remaining without an employment. From 2011 to 2013, only 9.6%
of people aged 25 and above participated in any activity linked with raising their vocational qualifications
and other skills (compared to 10.7% in the years 2009-2011). The analysis of the structure of these
persons indicated that training activities were more often undertaken by women (56.1% to 43.9%). 31
Table 50 Share of people aged 25 and above who participated in any activity linked with raising their
vocational qualifications and other skills in years 2007-2013
2007-2009
2009-2011
2011-2013
Total
11.9
10.7
9.6
by sex
Women
51.9
54.0
56.1
Men
48.1
46.0
43.9
by education
Post secondary and
university
57.4
62.2
63.4
Secondary
29.0
24.7
25.2
Vocational education
11.9
10.6
9.5
Elementary and lower
1.7
2.5
1.9
Source: Czapiński J., Panek T. (eds.) (2013) Social Diagnosis 2013, Social Monitoring Council, Warsaw.
There is a clear correlation between the intensity of the educational process and age, educational
attainment and place of residence. The number of people who raise their qualifications decreases with
their age. People who do raise their qualifications are usually holders of university degrees or graduates
of post-secondary schools; they represented 63.4% of all the individuals raising their qualifications in
2011–2013 (in 2009–2011, this value amounted to 62.2%). Almost half of those raising their
qualifications are people from cities with over 100 thousand residents.32
31
32
Czapiński J., Panek T. (eds.) (2013); Social Diagnosis 2013, Social Monitoring Council, Warsaw.
Ibidem.
119
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Box 9 Amendment to the Act on the Promotion of Employment and Labour Market Institutions
Having regard to the need to reform the Polish labour market, the Act of 14th of March 2014 amending the Act on
the Promotion of Employment and Labour Market Institutions and Certain Other Acts, containing innovative
solutions aimed at, inter alia, increasing the impact of labour market policy, mitigating the effects of structural
mismatch, and improving the effectiveness of labour market policy, was developed. The Act provides, in
particular, for supporting the employment of young people by:
facilitating job placement through the reimbursement of social insurance contributions for unemployed
persons aged under 30 and starting their first job;
exempting employers from the obligation to pay Labour Fund and Guaranteed Employee Benefits Fund
contributions for employed persons aged under 30;
implementing new instruments supporting the employment of young people on the labour market:
training, internship, employment and accommodation vouchers.
What is more, the act envisages support for employers who employ unemployed persons aged 50+:
the district governor subsidises the remuneration for an unemployed person aged 50+, employed by the
employer or entrepreneur, for a period of 12 or 24 months;
establishing the National Training Fund (KFS) using the Labour Fund monies; the National Training
Fund is designed for financing employees’ education and training.
Structural mismatches are also an effect of a relatively low mobility of the workforce in Poland. A small
scale of internal migrations from areas with low demand to areas with high demand for labour is
contributing to the maintaining of spatial concentration of unemployment.
As part of active forms of counteracting unemployment, district job centres offer persons who are
unemployed and seeking employment a number of support instruments to help them develop their
competencies and acquire professional qualifications:
training referrals;
financing the costs of post-graduate studies;
financing the costs of exams, including those resulting in obtaining vocational
qualifications/licenses;
scholarship for adults to continue school education or undertake part-time studies (form of
support reserved for unemployed persons from impoverished families only);
a loan for vocational training;
referral of adults for professional training;
internship referral.
Among the above-mentioned form of active counteracting of unemployment, internships and training are
used the most often. In 2014, employment offices placed 221.6 thousand persons in internships (an
increase by 11.6% compared to the previous year). 11.2% of registered unemployed took advantage of
the internship placement in 2014 (compared to 9% in the previous year). 192 thousand persons who are
unemployed and seeking employment completed an internship with an employer. 72.4% of those who
completed the internship found employment during the internship or within 3 months of completing it
(compared to 65.2% in 2013, which means an increase in efficiency by 7.2 p.p.). The internships and
professional training of adults are organised with the direct participation of employers who propose and
implement a programme comprising these forms of employment support.
In 2014, a total of 79.2 thousand persons, i.e. 7.6% less than in the previous year, were referred for
training, but the percentage of unemployed persons who took advantage of those forms of employment
support grew slightly (to 4%). Training was completed by nearly 78 thousand people. 51.9% of those
who underwent training found employment during training or within 3 months following its completion,
which means an increase in training efficiency by 5 p.p. compared to 2013.
120
In addition, in order to better adapt qualifications to labour market requirements, the amendment to the
Act on the Promotion of Employment and Labour Market Institutions introduced a new solution as of 27th
of May 2014 – tri-partite training agreements, a voucher system (e.g. internship and training vouchers),
and the National Training Fund (KFS).
The above-mentioned fund is a systemic solution aimed at employers and facilitating the re-training or
updating of knowledge and skills of employed persons. At the same time, the KFS funds are managed
with the participation of social partners. In the first two years of its operation (i.e. 2014 and 2015), KFS
has supported lifelong learning of employees and employers aged over 45, thus preventing, inter alia,
the loss of employment by those persons due to their competencies being inadequate to the
requirements of the dynamically changing economy, which is of particular importance in the context of
the raised retirement age. From 27th of May to 31st of December 2014, more than 1.7 thousand
employers submitted applications for KFS funds, of which 36% represents employers with up to 9
employees. Approximately 11.5 thousand of those persons were granted support under the National
Training Fund (KFS).
Tri-partite training agreements are concluded between the district governor, employer and training
institution. Under those agreements, employers undertake to employ the unemployed person following
the completion of training, in return for which the agreements specify, in particular, skills and
qualifications required by the employer from job candidates. These requirements are included in the
training programme financed by the district employment office from the Labour Fund. This way,
unemployed persons gain skills desired by the employer. Training with regard to skills and qualifications
guaranteeing employment under the tri-partite training agreement was undertaken by 239 unemployed
persons. In 2014, participation in this form of support was completed by 212 of those persons.
The system of vouchers is addressed to unemployed persons below the age of 30. The purpose of this
instrument is to stimulate and maintain the activity of young persons in the process of seeking
employment. The training and internship vouchers constitute a guarantee of financing either: training
indicated by the unemployed person, necessary to gain employment, or internship with an employer
indicated by the unemployed person, including the costs of travel and necessary medical and
psychological examinations, as well as accommodation – in the case of training. This solution allows the
unemployed person to independently choose the training/internship with the employer that will enable
them to acquire skills making it possible to find employment. Additionally, an employer who employs an
unemployed person for a period of 6 months following the completed internship (lasting 6 months) will
receive a bonus from the district governor, which constitutes aid granted pursuant to the conditions of
eligibility for de minimis aid. From the date of entry of the amendment to the Act into force to 31st of
December 2014, nearly 13.9 thousand applications for an internship voucher and nearly 3 thousand
applications for a training voucher were submitted, of which 11.9 thousand (86.1%) and 2.6 thousand
(88%), respectively, were approved.
The Amendment to the Act on the Promotion of Employment and Labour Market Institutions of 2014
also introduced an instrument that directly supports professional mobility, i.e. the accommodation
voucher which is a form of support addressed to young unemployed persons undertaking employment,
other gainful activity or business activity outside their current place of residence. In order to be eligible
for financial support in the amount of up to 2-times the average remuneration, intended for
accommodation costs connected with undertaking employment, it is necessary to meet three conditions:
the undertaken form of employment must be covered by social insurance and the person
undertaking it must receive gross monthly remuneration or monthly income in the amount at
least equal to minimum wage;
121
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
person receiving the voucher must remain employed or pursue business activity for a period not
shorter than 6 months, and
distance from the current place of residence to the town/city to which the unemployed person
will move in relation to undertaking a job is no shorter than 80 km or the total daily travel time to
this town/city and back to the current place of residence exceeds 3 hours.
With the introduction of new employment support instruments, unemployed persons and those seeking
employment have innovative solutions supporting employment, including those improving professional
mobility, at their disposal, while employers may utilise additional solutions facilitating the creation of jobs
for the unemployed.
Box 10 Youth Guarantees in Poland33
From January to December 2014, employment offices offered forms of employment support under the Youth
Guarantee to 355.9 thousand persons aged under 25. Under the "First Business – Support at the Start"
programme, constituting a part of the Youth Guarantee programme implemented by Bank Gospodarstwa
Krajowego, financial intermediaries received over 400 loan applications (the Programme is being implemented
since 17.11.2014, with the age criterion raised to 29 in this case). At the same time, Voluntary Labour Corps,
which are the third executor of the Youth Guarantee programme, provided employment support to more than 77
thousand young people.
As at the end of 2014, 302 thousand people aged under 25 were registered in employment offices, which
comprised 16.5% of the overall number of registered unemployed. In the previous year, this share amounted to
18.6%. The decrease was 24.7% (YoY), i.e. 99.1 thousand people.
The decrease in the number of unemployed, including among young people, was mainly the result of lower inflow
to and higher outflow from unemployment. The increased number of deregistration as unemployed was the result
of a visible recovery on the labour market manifested by a higher number of job offers in employment offices. The
number of job offers submitted by employers to employment offices in 2014 amounted to 1,094.9 thousand, i.e.
grew by 220.8 thousand (25.3%) compared to 2013. Employers also submitted 229.9 thousand internship offers,
i.e. 15.7% more than in 2013. Internship offers comprised 21% of all job offers submitted by employers in 2014.
In order to increase their chances at finding suitable employment, an increasing number of young people decide
to raise their professional qualifications by obtaining tertiary education and completing internships,
apprenticeships or finding employment. It facilitates the dynamic growth of education, primarily higher education,
and resulted in the number of students increasing by four times over the last 20 years. In the academic year
2012/2013, 1,676.9 persons studied at 453 higher education schools, compared to slightly over 400 thousand
persons in the academic year 1990/1991. During that time, the gross enrolment ratio increased from 12.9% to
51.8%.
5.4. Foreign migration for economic reasons
This resulted in a significant increase in emigration in the first years after the accession.
The results of the 2011 National Census have confirmed the growth in the number of Poles staying
abroad, observed in the recent years. They indicated that 2 million permanent Polish residents stayed
abroad for longer than 3 months when the census was conducted. Women accounted for 51.1% of the
emigrants.34
Source: gdm.praca.gov.pl.
Central Statistical Office (GUS, 2013), International migration of population. 2011 National Population and Housing
Census, Warsaw.
33
34
122
Among all countries which have over the years been the main destinations for Polish emigrants, a
significant increase in the number of arriving Poles was recorded in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Ireland, the Netherlands and Norway are also popular destinations. Poles are the biggest minority in
Norway.
Apart from emigration for economic reasons, another phenomenon which can be seen nowadays is that
of return migration. The main cause of return migration in the years 2011-2013 were economic reasons
(declared by 36.1% of return emigrants in 2013), such as: loss of employment, smaller income in
comparison to the income earned in Poland and inability to find employment abroad. Short-term
economic migration more and more often constitutes an element of the life plan, and its natural
consequence is to settle in Poland again (23.3% of answers in 2013).35 According to the data from the
2011 National Census, 49.7% of emigrants are considering to return to Poland, 11.7% are not, while the
remaining persons are not having any specific plans.36
The migration phenomena also include an inflow of foreigners to Poland. So far, the number of
immigrants in Poland is insignificant. The 2011 National Census indicated that there are 56.3 thousand
permanent residents of other countries living in Poland. Foreigners account for only 0.2% of permanent
residents of Poland.37
One of the reasons why foreigners immigrate to Poland is to take up employment. In 2014, over 43.6
thousand work permits for foreigners were issued in Poland. The most numerous group of recipients of
such permits were citizens of Ukraine (60.3%), Vietnam (5.4%), China (4.9%) and Belarus (4.2%). The
greatest number of foreigners took up employment in the construction industry, wholesale and retail
trade and in private households.38
In 2006, a simplified procedure for the short-term employment of Russian, Belorussian, Ukrainian (then
also Georgian, Moldovan and Armenian) nationals was introduced, requiring no work permit to be
obtained. In order to undertake work in Poland for the period not longer than 6 months within a period of
12 subsequent months, citizens of these countries need only to hold the employer’s declaration of intent
as regards entrusting work to them, and a stay permit allowing work (e.g. a visa). Thanks to the
introduced simplification, the number of foreigners working in Poland increased. In 2014, 387.3
thousand of such declarations were registered, which is 64.4% more than in 2013. Over 96% of all
declarations pertained to citizens of Ukraine. Main sectors of employment were agriculture, construction
and manufacturing. Data for January and February 2015 indicate an increasingly growing number of
registered declarations. By the end of February 2015, more than 127.4 thousand declarations were
registered (i.e. 151% more compared to the corresponding period in the previous year). 39
The new Act on Foreigners, specifying the rules and conditions for the entry of foreigners to the territory
of the Republic of Poland, passage of foreigners through the territory of Poland, stay of foreigners in
Poland and their departure from Poland, as well as procedures and authorities relevant with regard to
these matters, entered into force on 1st of May 2014.
On 2nd of December 2014, the Council of Ministers adopted the Implementation Plan for the document
Czapiński J., Panek T. (eds.) (2013), Social Diagnosis 2013, Social Monitoring Council, Warsaw.
Central Statistical Office (GUS, 2013), International migration of population. 2011 National Population and Housing
Census, Warsaw.
37 Central Statistical Office (GUS, 2012), Results of the 2011 National Population and Housing Census.
38 Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, http://www.mpips.gov.pl/analizy-i-raporty/cudzoziemcy-pracujacy-w-polsce-statystyki,
Colletive data 2014, [03.06.2015].
39 Ibidem.
35
36
123
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
titled “Polish Migration Policy – Current State of Play and Further Actions”40. This document indicates
the schedule for specific actions to be undertaken by the administration, aimed at the implementation of
objectives and directions of Polish migration policy defined in nearly 200 recommendations presented in
“Polish Migration Policy (...)” in areas pertaining to such issues as: legal migrations, integration and
protection of foreigners, emigration, efficient operation of the legal and institutional system as well as
monitoring of migration processes.
Box 11 New Act on Foreigners – the most important changes
The Act on Foreigners, effective as of 1st of May 2014, introduces a series of changes, such as:
amendment of the provisions regulating the temporary residence permits for foreigners; replacement of the
previous residence permits for a fixed period with temporary residence permits; introduction of a group of
general provisions and specification of individual types of temporary residence permits;
extension of the maximum period for which a temporary residence permit may be granted to foreigners from
2 to 3 years;
amendment of the principles governing the application of visa and temporary residence permit applications (a
foreigner will be able to submit an application during their legal stay, even on the last day);
amendment of the principles governing the granting of temporary residence permits for foreigners studying at
Polish universities through, inter alia, the extension of the period of the first temporary residence permit from
12 to 15 months, and adopting that subsequent permits shall be granted on general basis, that is for a period
of up to 3 years;
introduction of the possibility to obtain a single permit for both residence and work (a foreigner who works in
Poland will be able to apply for a residence and work permit under a single procedure);
changes as regards the specification of criteria for the verification of compliance with the requirements for
obtaining a temporary residence permit for the purposes of conducting business activity, consisting in their
simplification and objectification;
simplification of procedures regarding the granting of temporary and permanent residence permits for the
victims of human trafficking;
amendment to provisions regulating permanent residence permits for foreigners; replacement of the previous
settlement permit with the permanent residence permit;
introduction of a new requirement for the granting of a permanent residence permit for an indefinite period of
time for persons of Polish origin (with reference to the provisions of the Act on Repatriation) who intend to
permanently settle in Poland (it is the fulfilment of the provisions arising from Article 52, sec. 5 of the
Constitution);
introduction of a new requirement for the granting of a permanent residence permit for an indefinite period of
time for persons who hold a valid Polish Charter (Karta Polaka) and intend to permanently settle in Poland;
introduction – to the Act – of provisions regarding requirements for the verification whether a foreigner’s
marriage with a Polish citizen was not concluded in order to circumvent the Act, conducted by a competent
authority in the process of granting a residence permit;
introduction – to the Act – of the institution of a tolerated stay permit and permit for residence within the
territory of the Republic of Poland due to humanitarian reasons;
replacement of two separate decisions on the removal of a foreigner from the territory of Poland and on
obliging a foreigner to leave this territory with a single decision obliging a foreigner to return,
while at the same time harmonising the procedure by indicating that the only authorities competent with
regard to issuing the above-mentioned decision shall be Border Guard authorities defined in the Act;
introduction of regulations pursuant to which decisions obliging a foreigner to return will impose a ban on reentry to the territory of the Republic of Poland (or the Republic of Poland and other Schengen countries) for a
period of time defined therein;
introduction of regulations enabling the participation of non-government organisations providing assistance to
foreigners in activities pertaining to the removal of a foreigner from Poland.
40
The document titled Polish Migration Policy (...) was adopted by the Council of Ministers on 31 July 2012.
124
6. FOREIGN TRADE
6.1. Situation in Polish foreign trade in 2014
The dynamics of the Polish export largely depends on the global economic conditions, including, in
particular, on the markets of our main trade partners, among which the crucial one is the European
Union which receives 77% of all Polish goods sold abroad.
Recently a slow but stable economic recovery has been observed in the European Union. According to
the OECD data, after the stagnation recorded in the EU in 2013, including GDP decrease of 0.3% in the
eurozone, the year 2014 brought about a growth of the EU economies at the level of 1.3%, including
0.9% in the eurozone countries. The acceleration of economic growth of EU economies resulted
primarily from the recovery of domestic demand and low interest rates. In addition, the drop in prices of
crude oil and the slower pace of fiscal consolidation had a substantial impact on the improvement of
economic situation.
As regards the most important markets for Polish trade, in the entire 2014 a relatively fast growth was
experienced by the economies of the United Kingdom (up by 2.8%), Slovakia (up by 2.4%), Hungary (up
by 3.6%), the Czech Republic (up by 2%) and Germany (up by 1.6%), what translated into faster growth
of internal demand in those countries by: 3.4%, 2.9%, 4.1%, 2.2% and 1.3%, respectively.
What has a significant influence on the Polish foreign trade is also the economic situation of the
Commonwealth of Independent States, in particular Russia and Ukraine. The situation of Russia in the
context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, declining prices of crude oil and foreign sanctions
emphasised the economy’s hidden structural weaknesses, resulting in a substantial depreciation of RUB
and, in consequence, higher inflation. In 2014, the price of crude oil amounted USD 99 per barrel, i.e.
decreased by approx. 9% in relation to 2013; in December 2014 the price amounted to USD 60 per
barrel. In response to the existing situation, as of the end of 2014 the Central Bank of Russia increased
interest rates by 6.5 p.p. to 17%. The slump in the crude oil prices, strained financial situation,
international economic sanctions and diminishing credibility translated into nearly a twofold slowdown of
the economic growth in Russia, to 0.6% in 2014. The deterioration of the business situation in Russia
influenced the economic situation in the whole CIS, whose GDP increased in 2014 by 1% as compared
to 2.2% a year earlier.
On the other hand, the most important factors of Poland’s foreign trade exchange in 2014 include e.g.
the relative stabilisation of the nominal PLN exchange rate against two main settlement currencies in
the Polish trade exchange, i.e. EUR and USD. The average EUR exchange rate in PLN weakened by
0.3% (YoY) and USD exchange rate by 0.2%.
According to the Central Statistical Office data, in 2014 the export of goods from Poland increased by
7% compared to 2013, reaching the value of nearly EUR 165.8 billion. In contrast, import amounted to
EUR 168.4 billion and was 7.3% higher than in 2013. As a result, the trade deficit amounted to
approximately EUR 2.7 billion.
125
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 51 Poland’s trade turnover between 01.2014 and 06.2015
Dynamics
Corresponding period of the
Period
previous year=100
Exports
Imports
Balance
Exports
Imports
January 2013
13,404
13,505
-101
108.8
106.3
February
13,068
13,204
-136
106.1
108.1
March
14,145
14,392
-247
111.3
106.3
1st Q
40,618
41,101
-483
108.7
106.9
April
14,033
13,878
155
106.8
108.2
May
13,578
14,082
-504
109.4
111.1
June
13,494
13,632
-138
103.5
106.6
2nd Q
41,105
41,593
-487
106.5
108.6
1st half of the year
81,723
82,694
-971
107.6
107.7
July
13,841
14,353
-512
106.0
108.0
August
12,245
12,683
-439
99.0
101.7
September
14,932
14,724
207
107.2
108.8
3rd Q
41,018
41,761
-744
104.3
106.3
October
15,646
15,835
-189
106.9
106.5
November
14,510
14,695
-184
106.7
105.1
December
12,876
13,447
-571
112.2
111.3
4th Q
43,033
43,977
-945
108.4
107.4
Year 2013
165,774
168,432
-2,659
107.0
107.3
January 2014
13,605
13,117
488
101.5
97.1
February
13,785
13,101
685
105.5
99.2
March
15,579
15,033
546
110.1
104.4
1st Q
42,969
41,251
1,718
105.8
100.0
April
14,495
14,441
54
103.3
104.1
May
14,823
13,937
886
109.2
98.9
June
14,889
14,669
220
110.3
107.6
2nd Q
44,207
43,047
1,159
107.5
103.4
1st half of the year
87,175
84,298
2,878
106.7
101.9
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central Statistical Office data.
In EUR mn
Chart 27 Monthly trade in goods between 01.2014 and 06.2015
20 000
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
-4 000
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2014
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
2015
exports
imports
balance
126
Chart 28 Monthly export and import dynamics between 01.2014 and 06.2015
115.0
113.0
111.0
109.0
107.0
105.0
103.0
101.0
99.0
97.0
95.0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
2014
2015
exports 108.8 106.1 111.3 106.8 109.4 103.5 106.0 99.0 107.2 106.9 106.7 112.2 101.5 105.5 110.1 103.3 109.2 110.3
imports 106.3 108.1 106.3 108.2 111.1 106.6 108.0 101.7 108.8 106.5 105.1 111.3 97.1 99.2 104.5 104.1 99.0 107.6
6.2. Geographical structure of foreign trade turnover
Unlike in the past few years, in 2014 significantly better results were achieved in export to economically
developed countries than to less developed ones.
In 2014, sales to developed markets increased by 9.8% (to almost EUR 139.4 billion), i.e. it was 2.8 p.p.
faster overall and 2.4 p.p. faster than in the previous year. In turn, import from those markets rose at a
pace similar to the average, i.e. by 7.2% (to almost EUR 111 billion), which means acceleration by 3.1
p.p. in comparison to 2013. The results achieved in trade with developed markets further improved the
balance – by EUR 5 billion to EUR 28.4 billion.
A relatively fast growth in export to developed markets resulted from the dynamic acceleration in sales
to the EU, i.e. by 10.4% to nearly EUR 128.4 billion. As far as EU countries are concerned, the trend
consisting in the rapid growth of the export of goods to EU markets outside the eurozone was reversed.
In 2014, export to the eurozone went up by 11.5% (i.e. by nearly twofold compared to the previous
year), whereas export to other EU countries rose by 8% (compared to 7.1% in 2013).
Among the most significant EU markets, export to the following countries has increased the most
rapidly:
− Latvia – up by 24.8% (by EUR 0.3 billion), to EUR 1.6 billion;
− Spain – by 17.6% (by over EUR 0.6 billion), to almost EUR 4.1 billion;
− Romania – by 12.6% (by almost EUR 0.3 billion), to almost EUR 2.6 billion;
− Italy – by 12.4% (by over EUR 0.8 billion), to EUR 7.5 billion;
− the Netherlands – by 12.3% (by almost EUR 0.8 billion), to EUR 6.9 billion;
− Germany, our main trade partner – by 12.2% (by EUR 4.7 billion), to EUR 43.6 billion;
− Sweden – by 11.9% (by EUR 0.5 billion), to almost EUR 4.7 billion;
− the Czech Republic – by 11.7% (by EUR 1.1 billion), to EUR 10.7 billion;
− Hungary – by 10.5% (by over EUR 0.4 billion), to almost EUR 4.4 billion;
127
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
As far as EU countries are concerned, a drop in export was recorded only in the case of Bulgaria - down
by 2.8% to EUR 730 million.
Import from the EU rose by 8.3% (to almost EUR 99.5 billion), whereas – as in the case of export – its
growth was faster in the eurozone markets (by 8.9%, to EUR 78.2 billion) than in other EU markets (by
6.2%, to EUR 21.2 billion).
Increase in import was recorded in the case of all EU markets, including major markets. Among the
fastest growing were imports from:
 Italy – by 13.7% (by over EUR 1.1 billion), to EUR 9.5 billion;
 Belgium – by 12% (i.e. by approx. EUR 0.43 billion), to nearly EUR 4.1 billion;
 Denmark – by 10% (by approx. EUR 190 million), to EUR 2.1 billion; and
 Germany – by 9.1% (by EUR 3.1 billion), to EUR 37.1 billion.
Chart 29 Share of individual market groups in Polish exports in 2015
CIS countries
7.7%
Other developing
countries
8.2%
Other developed
countries
6.6%
European Union
77.5%
As a result, the surplus in trade with the EU amounted to EUR 28.9 billion in 2014, i.e. increased by
almost EUR 4.5 billion compared to 2013, including with eurozone markets by EUR 2.8 billion (to EUR
10.9 billion) and other EU markets by almost EUR 1.7 billion (to EUR 18 billion).
The improvement of balance with the EU by EUR 4.5 billion was generated due to favourable changes
in exchange balance with 17 EU markets, including in particular with:
 Germany – surplus up by over EUR 1.6 billion, to EUR 6.5 billion;
 the Czech Republic – surplus up by EUR 0.8 billion, to nearly EUR 4.7 billion;
 Spain – positive balance up by approx. EUR 580 million, to EUR 660 million;
 The Netherlands – surplus up by approx. EUR 470 million, to approx. EUR 540 million; and
 Sweden - positive balance up by EUR 0.4 billion, to almost EUR 1.7 billion.
128
Table 52 Changes in the geographical structure of Polish trade in goods and their impact on the trade
balance (in EUR million)
2014
2013
Exports
Imports
Balance
Exports
Imports
Balance
165,774
107.0
168,432
107.3
-2,659
154,994
108.0
156,978
101.9
139,384
110.986
28.398
126.989
103.568
109.8
84.1
128,398
110.4
77.5
43,619
112.2
26.3
107.2
65.9
99,457
108.3
59.0
37,099
109.1
22.0
107.4
81.9
116,293
106.3
75.0
38,888
107.8
25.1
104.1
66.0
91,803
103.5
58.5
34,006
103.6
21.7
10,719
6,063
9,596
5,755
111.7
6.5
10,567
104.8
6.4
9,273
106.6
5.6
7,523
112.4
4.5
105.3
3.6
4,361
106.1
2.6
6,304
105.2
3.7
9,503
113.7
5.6
105.8
6.2
10,079
103.8
6.5
8,703
103.6
5.6
6,691
96.3
4.3
101.8
3.7
4,109
109.2
2.6
5,991
99.7
3.8
8,356
103.4
5.3
10,985
11,528
10,696
11,765
102.7
6.6
3,627
99.5
2.2
4,252
96.4
2.6
98.0
6.8
4,103
98.3
2.4
3,759
87.5
2.2
120.3
6.9
3,643
130.3
2.4
4,409
117.2
2.8
108.4
7.5
4,172
105.8
2.7
4,296
121.3
2.7
26,390
57,447
28,005
53,410
94.2
15.9
12,761
83.2
7.7
7,009
86.0
4.2
107.6
34.1
21,173
96.8
12.6
17,393
91.3
10.3
111.2
18.1
15,329
107.7
9.9
8,147
106.1
5.3
98.0
34.0
21,862
88.3
13.9
19,047
88.1
12.1
13,629
36,274
12,676
31,547
prev. year = 100
share including:
107,5
8.2
115
21.5
115,8
8.2
106,1
20.1
China
1,684
105.6
1.0
17,560
120.1
10.4
1,594
117.4
1.0
14,623
106.8
9.3
Poland total
prev. year = 100
Developed
countries
prev. year = 100
share including:
EU
prev. year = 100
share including:
Germany
prev. year = 100
share
Czech
Republic
prev. year = 100
share
UK
prev. year = 100
share
France
prev. year = 100
share
Italy
prev. year = 100
share
Other
developed
countries
prev. year = 100
share including:
USA
prev. year = 100
share
EFTA
prev. year = 100
share
Other
countries excl.
developed
countries
prev. year = 100
share including:
CIS countries
prev. year = 100
Share including:
Russia
prev. year = 100
share
Other
countries
prev. year = 100
share
28,941
6,520
4,656
6,207
2,969
-1,980,
-543
-476
494
-31,057
-8,412
-10,384
-22,645
-15,876
Changes 2014/2013
Exports
Imports Balance
incr. (+)
decr. (-)
incr. (-)
decr. (+)
impr. (+)
det. (-)
-1,984
10,780
-11,454
-675
23.421
12.395
-7.417
4.977
24,489
12,106
-7,654
4,452
4,882
4,731
-3,093
1,639
3,841
1,123
-308
815
5,970
489
-251
237
2,712
570
-314
257
-1,665
832
-1,147
-315
-1,069
289
+236
525
-529
-17
+70
53
113
-157
+537
380
-25,405
-1 615
-4,037
-5,652
-6,533
-2 568
+689
-1,879
-10,901
-1 138
+1,654
517
-18,872
953
-4,726
-3,773
-13,029
89
-2,937
-2,848
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central Statistical Office (GUS)
data.
The relatively fast increase in trade with the EU stands in contrast to the results achieved in trade with
economically developed markets outside the EU, as export to those markets grew by 2.7% (to approx.
129
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
EUR 11 billion), that is over 2.5 times slower overall and 7.5 times slower than in 2013, whereas import
declined by 2% (to EUR 11.5 billion), while a year ago it grew by 8.4%.
The clear slowdown in export to those countries recorded in 2014 resulted from the decline in exports to
EFTA countries (by 3.6%, to nearly EUR 4.3 billion), including to Norway (by 9.7% to EUR 2.8 billion).
Among EFTA countries, on the other hand, export to Switzerland, among others, increased relatively
fast, i.e. by 9.1% to EUR 1.4 billion.
Export to other developed markets showed better results than to EFTA countries (increase by 7.1%, to
EUR 6.7 billion). This resulted primarily from the dynamic increase in the sales of goods to Canada (up
by 24.8%, to approx. EUR 950 million), Australia (up by 24.2%, to approx. EUR 480 million) and RSA
(up by 10.8%, to approx. EUR 510 million). These results managed to offset the decline in exports to the
USA (down by 0.5%, to EUR 3.6 billion) and Japan (down by 3.2%, to approx. EUR 490 million).
Import from the entire group of non-EU developed markets decreased in 2014 by 2% in consequence of
a substantial drop in import from EFTA countries (down by 12.5%, to nearly EUR 3.8 billion), since
import from remaining developed markets increased by 4%, to almost EUR 7.8 billion.
The results of trade with the entire group of developed (non-EU) countries in 2014 translated into the
reduction of deficit recorded in 2013 by EUR 525 million, to approx. EUR 545 million. The achievement
of such result was possible due to the increase of the surplus in trade with EFTA countries by EUR 380
billion (to approx. EUR 495 million) and the decrease of the negative balance of trade with other
developed countries (by EUR 145 million, to approx. EUR 1.040 million).
Among the entire group of non-EU developed countries, the largest increase was recorded in the trade
balance with: Norway (surplus up by approx. EUR 325 million, to approx. EUR 470 million), Canada
(surplus up by approx. EUR 180 million, to approx EUR 640 million) and the United States (reduction of
deficit by approx. EUR 55 million, to approx. EUR 475 million). This allowed to offset the decline in trade
balance with Japan (the negative balance increased by over EUR 0.3 billion, to approx. EUR 1.9 billion),
among others.
In 2014, unfavourable results were recorded in trade with developing and less developed markets. After
the increase in exports to this group of countries by 11.2% in 2013, the following year brought about a
decline in export by 5.8%, to EUR 26.4 billion. In contrast, import from those markets increased
significantly (up by 7.6%, to EUR 57.4 billion), whereas one year ago it recorded a decline by 2%. This
translated into an increase of an already substantial trade deficit by nearly EUR 5.7 billion, to approx.
EUR 31.1 billion in 2014.
The decrease of export to less developed markets recorded in 2014 resulted from a substantial decline
of export to the CIS (down by 16.8%, to EUR 12.8 billion), including to Russia (down by 14%, to
EUR 7 billion), Ukraine (down by 27.1%, to EUR 3.1 billion) and Belarus (down by 12%, to EUR
1.6 billion).
A decrease was also recorded with respect to imports from the CIS, albeit this decline was 5 times
slower than in the case of export (i.e. down by 3.2%, to EUR 21.2 billion). The decline in import from this
group of markets was caused by the drop in import from Russia (by 8.7%, to EUR 17.4 billion), since
import from other CIS countries increased, including from Belarus by 8.1% and from Ukraine by 1.6%.
The decline in import from Russia resulted from a drop in the import of mineral products (down by over
9%), constituting the main import product. It needs to be borne in mind that the import of these products
130
is generated by the necessary import of energy raw materials and as the volume of their import has
been relatively stable for years, its scale in terms of value depends directly on global prices which
dropped sharply in 2014 to the lowest level since 2010 (crude oil price amounted to USD 99 per barrel).
In 2014, the trade deficit with the CIS declined by EUR 1.9 billion (to EUR 8.4 billion), primarily due to
the significant decrease in the balance of trade with Ukraine (down by nearly EUR 1.2 billion),
Kazakhstan (down by approx. EUR 870 million) and Belarus (down by EUR 265 million). The
improvement in the trade balance with Russia (deficit reduced by over EUR 0.5 billion, to approx. EUR
10.4 billion), was not sufficient to offset this deficit.
Export to other developing (non-CIS) markets increased faster than overall export growth, i.e. by 7.5%,
to EUR 13.6 billion. However, the growth was two times slower than in the previous year. On the other
hand, the already large import from these countries increased substantially, i.e. by 15% (to nearly EUR
36.3 billion) in comparison to a growth of 6.1% in 2013. As a result, the negative balance of trade with
this group of markets has declined even further – down by EUR 3.8 billion, to approx. EUR 22.6 billion.
As regards trade with major partners from the group of less developed non-CIS countries, the largest
decrease in trade balance was recorded in trade with:
 China, where the dynamic acceleration of an already substantial import (by 20.1%, to nearly EUR
17.6 billion) with a much smaller growth in export (by 5.6%, to approx. EUR 1.7 billion) resulted in
the increase of the negative trade balance by EUR 2.8 billion, to EUR 15.9 billion;
 The Republic of Korea, where a substantial decrease in export (by 30%, to approx. EUR 380
million) and increase in import (by 4.1%, to nearly EUR 3.3 billion) were recorded – which translated
into an increase in deficit by EUR 0.3 billion, to EUR 2.9 billion;
 Brazil, where due to a drop in export (by 9.5%, to EUR 395 million) and simultaneous dynamic
increase in import (by 24.6%, to EUR 865 million) the trade deficit grew by approx. EUR 215 million,
to EUR 470 million;
 Turkey, import from which increased by 10.9% (to EUR 2 billion) and export rose by only 1.9% (to
EUR 2.3 billion), resulting in the decline of the positive trade balance by EUR 155 million, to approx.
EUR 320 million;
 India, export to which grew by 11.7% (to slightly over EUR 0.4 billion), import by 16.2% (to nearly
EUR 1.3 billion), while trade balance decreased by approx. EUR 135 million, to EUR 870 million.
The above-mentioned negative changes were not counterweighted by the improved trade balance with
the following countries:
 United Arab Emirates, where due to higher increase in export (by 48%, to approx. EUR 840 million)
than import (by 42.3%, to approx. EUR 120 million), the surplus rose by approx. EUR 235 million, to
EUR 720 million;
 Algeria, where due to the dynamic increase in export (nearly twofold, to approx. EUR 500 million)
and significantly slower increase in import (by 22%, to approx. EUR 43 million), the positive balance
rose by approx. EUR 235 million, to approx. EUR 460 million;
 Saudi Arabia, where due to the increase in export by 36.5% (to approx. EUR 520 million) and
simultaneous sharp decline in import (by approx. 40%, to approx. EUR 45 million), the surplus rose
by EUR 170 million, to approx. EUR 475 million; and
 Singapore, where the increase in export by approx. 12.1% (to approx. EUR 620 million) and
decrease in import by 3.9% (to EUR 685 million) resulted in the reduction of the deficit by EUR 95
million, to EUR 65 million.
131
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
6.3. Changes in the commodity structure of trade in goods
The most substantial contribution in Polish commodity turnover with foreign countries, both in terms of
export and import, is made by electrical machinery products. In 2014, they accounted for 39.7% of
export and 36.7% of import. The export of these products increased by 8% (to EUR 65.8 billion).
A fast growth was recorded in the export of machinery, electrical equipment and their parts. The export
of this group of commodities increased 11.8% (to EUR 40.9 billion, which represented a share of
24.7%), including an increase in the export of machinery, electrical equipment and parts thereof by 16%
(to EUR 19.8 billion). A slight increase was observed in the group of vehicles and vessels (up by 1.1%,
to EUR 22.8 billion – a share of 13.9%), resulting from the slower growth rate in the sales of vehicles
and parts thereof (up by 2.6%, to EUR 17.1 billion) and ships, boats and floating structures (up by 1.9%,
to EUR 4.2 billion).
The import of electrical machinery products increased by 9.4%, reaching the level of approx. EUR 61.9
billion. The largest share in the Polish import of electrical machinery products – as in the case of export
– is represented by mechanical appliances, electrical equipment and parts thereof, the import of which
increased by 11% to EUR 40.4 billion (a share of 24%). The fastest growth was recorded in the case of
instruments, devices and measuring apparatus – up by 11.5%, to nearly EUR 3.8 billion (2.2% of total
import).
The results of trade in electrical machinery products translated into a decrease of the positive trade
balance by EUR 0.45 billion, to EUR 3.9 billion in 2014. As regards commodities from this group, the
highest positive balance was generated by vehicles and vessels (nearly EUR 5.1 billion).
The value of the second-biggest group of commodities exported from Poland (with a 13.9% share), i.e.
chemical industry products, attained the level of EUR 23 billion – 5.1% higher than the level recorded in
the previous year. Above-average growth was recorded with regard to the export of the following items,
among others:
 plastics and plastic products – up by 5.5%, to EUR 7.5 billion, which accounted for 4.5% of all
Polish exports;
 pharmaceutical products – up by 15.5%, to EUR 2.7 bln (1.7% of all exports), and
 soap and detergents, cleaning and polishing preparations, etc. – up by 7.7%, to nearly EUR 1.6
billion (0.9% of all exports).
On the other hand, the export of cautchouc and cautchouc products, which accounts for a large part of
the export of chemicals, has decreased by 1.5% and attained the level of EUR 3.9 billion (2.4% of all
exports).
The import of chemical products increased by 6.9% (to the level of almost EUR 29.6 billion). The largest
part of export was represented by plastics and plastic products and pharmaceutical products the import
of which increased by 8.8% (to over EUR 10 billion) and 4% (to approx. EUR 4.5 billion), respectively.
The deficit in the trade of chemical products increased by almost EUR 0.8 billion, to the level of EUR 6.5
billion. This resulted, for the most part, from the decline in the trade balance of plastics and plastic
products (down by approx. EUR 420 million) and organic chemicals (down by EUR 415 million)
Despite the Russian embargo and in consequence of a substantial decline on this market, the export of
agricultural and food products grew at a rate similar to the average export growth rate, i.e. by 7.1%,
attaining the level of nearly EUR 21.9 billion.
132
As regards foodstuffs, the highest growth was recorded in the export of prepared foodstuffs, i.e. by
10.4%, to over EUR 10 billion (accounting for 6.1% of overall export from Poland). The most important
among them was the export of: tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes (which grew by 27% to
over EUR 1.9 billion) and preparations of cereals, flour or milk (up by 23.1%, to EUR 1.4 billion).
The export of products of animal origin and products of plant origin grew at a below-average pace (by
4.8%, to nearly EUR 7 billion and by 4%, to EUR 4.3 billion, respectively) In the first group, the largest
share is attributable to the export of meat and edible offal, whose exports increased by only 1.1% to
EUR 3.4 billion, and of dairy, bird eggs, natural honey, etc. which rose by 10.3% to nearly
EUR 2.1 billion. As regards the products of plant origin, the export of cereals and coffee, tea, spices
increased at the fastest rate – by 21.9% (to EUR 1 billion) and 36.9% (to approx. EUR 580 million),
respectively. A substantial share in the export of this group of products was also represented by fruit
(nearly EUR 1 billion) and vegetables (approx. EUR 940 million), although both those categories of
products declined in 2014 by 10% and 1.1%, respectively.
In geographical terms, growth in the export of agricultural and food products achieved in 2014 (up by
EUR 1.4 billion) resulted mainly from the increase of their sales to: France (by EUR 300 million),
Germany (by EUR 245 million), Italy (by EUR 155 million), the United Kingdom (by nearly EUR 150
million), Algeria (by EUR 134 million), the Czech Republic (by EUR 122 million) and Saudi Arabia (by
EUR 112 million).
In contrast, the greatest declines in the export of foodstuffs were recorded with regard to the export to
the Russian market (down by approx. EUR 380 million) and Ukraine (down by EUR 100 million). This
resulted in the decline of Russia's position on the list of the most important recipients of our agricultural
and food products. While in 2013 Russia held 3 rd place (right behind Germany and the United Kingdom)
with share of 6.2%, in 2014 it dropped to 7th place with a share of 4%.
A clear decline in the sales of foodstuffs to the Russian market (by 30%) was the result of a significant
decrease in the export of products covered by the embargo (by over 45%, i.e. by EUR 0.4 billion).
It should be noted that in the case of goods covered by the embargo, the non-performed export to
Russia was offset (with a surplus) on other markets, including EU markets as well as African and Asian
markets which have until now been utilised and identified to a lesser extent.
The import of agricultural and food products grew by 5.7% (to the level of EUR 15.1 billion), which made
it possible to increase the surplus of trade in foodstuffs by EUR 0.63 billion, to the level of EUR 6.7
billion. It was mainly the result of increasing the surplus in the trade in prepared foodstuffs – up by EUR
0.5 billion, attaining the level of EUR 3.9 billion.
In 2014, the export of furniture, which holds one of the top spots in terms of Polish exports (with a 5.6%
share in total exports), increased by 14.3%, attaining the value of EUR 9.2 billion. Poland attained a
substantial trade surplus with respect to the trade in the products in question which amounted over EUR
7.1 billion and was EUR 0.7 billion higher than in the previous year.
The export of metallurgical products (accounting for 10.6% of Polish exports) reached the level of EUR
17.5 billion and was 3.3% higher in comparison to the previous year. The export of cast iron and steel
products and aluminum and aluminum products which play the greatest role in this group increased by
8.8% (to EUR 5.6 billion) and 11.8% (to EUR 2.1 billion), respectively. However, exports with regard to
the other two main items, i.e. iron, cast iron and steel as well as copper and articles thereof have
133
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
experienced a decline of 5.5% (to the level of nearly EUR 3.5 billion) and 9.8% (to the level of almost
EUR 3.1 billion), respectively.
Table 53 Changes in the commodity structure of Polish foreign trade in 2014 and their impact on trade
balance (in EUR million)
2014
Specification
I
II
III
IV
(I-IV)
(V)
VI
VII
(VI-VII)
(VIII)
IX
X
(IX-X)
XI
XII
(XI-XII)
XIII
XIV
(XIIIXIV)
(XV)
XVI
XVII
XVIII
(XVIXVIII)
XIX
XX
XXI
XXII
TOTAL
Live animals and
animal products
Plant products
Fats and oils
Prepared foodstuffs
Agricultural and food
products
Mineral products
Chemical industry
products
Plastic and rubber
products
Chemical industry
products
Leather and leather
products
Wood and wood
products
Wood pulp, paper
and paperboard
Wood and paper
industry products
Textiles and textile
articles
Footwear, headgear,
umbrellas
Light industry
products
Articles of stone,
plaster and cement
Pearls, precious
metals, jewellery
Ceramic products
Metallurgical
products
Mechanical
appliances and
electrical equipment
Vehicles, aircrafts
and vessels
Optical instruments
and apparatus
Electric machinery
products
Arms and
ammunition
Miscellaneous
Works of art
Other
2013
Changes 2014/2013
Exports
Imports
Balance
Incr. (+)
Decr. (-)
Incr. (-)
Decr. (+)
Impr. (+)
Deter. (-)
Exports
Imports
Balance
Exports
Imports
Balance
165.774
6.960
168.432
4.533
-2.659
2.427
154.994
6.643
156.978
4.312
-1.984
2.331
10.780
317
-11.454
-221
-675
96
4.298
579
10.039
21.876
3.732
753
6.117
15.134
566
-174
3.922
6.742
4.135
560
9.090
20.427
3.566
766
5.668
14.313
569
-206
3.421
6.115
163
19
949
1.449
-165
+13
-448
-822
-2
32
501
627
7.129
11.569
19.056
16.664
-11.927
-5.095
7.515
10.779
19.463
15.549
-11.949
-4.771
-386
790
+408
-1.115
22
-324
11.454
12.888
-1.434
11.123
12.094
-970
331
-794
-463
23.023
29.552
-6.528
21.902
27.643
-5.741
1.122
-1.909
-787
914
1.117
-202
738
942
-205
177
-174
2
3.441
1.361
2.080
3.138
1.139
2.000
303
-222
81
4.294
4.457
-163
3.976
4.165
-188
318
-292
26
7.736
5.818
1.918
7.115
5.303
1.811
621
-515
106
5.430
7.728
-2.298
4.777
6.537
-1.761
653
-1.190
-537
902
1.324
-422
833
1.095
-263
69
-229
-160
6.332
9.052
-2.720
5.609
7.633
-2.023
722
-1.419
-697
3.205
1.884
1.321
2.943
1.696
1.247
262
-189
74
1.006
349
657
1.084
335
749
-78
-13
-91
4.211
2.233
1.978
4.027
2.031
1.996
184
-202
-18
17.509
17.700
-191
16.941
16.290
651
567
-1.410
-842
40.907
40.377
530
36.574
36.360
214
4.333
-4.016
316
22.818
17.748
5.070
22.567
16.845
5.722
251
-903
-652
2.089
3.752
-1.663
1.818
3.365
-1.546
270
-387
-117
65.813
61.876
3.937
60.959
56.570
4.389
4.854
-5.306
-452
51
96
-45
32
84
-52
19
-12
7
11.045
17
118
3.763
20
3.012
7.282
-3
-2.894
9.534
13
183
2.872
18
3.804
6.663
-5
-3.621
1.511
4
-65
-891
-2
+792
620
2
727
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central Statistical Office (GUS)
data.
In 2014, the import of metallurgical products grew significantly faster than export (by 8.7%, attaining the
level of EUR 17.7 billion), which translated into a decline in the balance of trade in these products. The
134
trade surplus of approx. EUR 650 million recorded in 2013 turned into a deficit of approx. EUR 190
million.
In 2014, the export of wood and paper industry products as well as light industry products grew at a rate
exceeding the average growth values (by 8.7%, to the level of EUR 7.7 billion and by 12.9%, to the level
of EUR 6.3 billion, respectively). The import of this first group of products increased by 9.7% (to EUR
5.8 billion), while the trade surplus grew by EUR 0.1 billion, to EUR 1.9 billion. In turn, the import of light
industry products grew by 18.6% (to nearly EUR 9.1 billion), resulting in an increase of the deficit in the
trade in these products by EUR 0.7 billion, to EUR 2.7 billion.
In the case of ceramic products, export increased by 4.6% (reaching the level of EUR 4.2 billion) while
import grew over twice as fast, i.e. by 9.9% (attaining the level of EUR 2.2 billion). The trade surplus
amounted to nearly EUR 2 billion, i.e. reached a level similar to the previous year.
In 2014, the group of mineral products was the only out of ten conventionally aggregated commodity
group which recorded a decline in turnover (by 5.1% in export, to the level of EUR 7.1 billion and 2.1%
in import, to the level of EUR 19.1 billion). The deficit in the trade in these products remained at the level
from the previous year, i.e. EUR 11.9 billion.
Car parts and accessories as well as passenger cars have attained the top position on the list of goods
which dominate Polish exports (aggregated at the level of 4-digit CN codes) for another year in a row,
accounting for nearly 8% of total exports. Similarly to the previous year, sales of the first group
increased faster than on average, i.e. by 9.8% (to nearly EUR 8 billion), while in the case of the second
group sales declined by 4.7%, attaining the level of EUR 5 billion.
In 2014, the list of commodity items the export of which attained a value higher than EUR 1 billion
included 27 items – in comparison to 23 items in 2013. Apart from passenger cars and their parts and
accessories, this group included also, inter alia, furniture, reception apparatus for television, automatic
data processing equipment, apparatus for line telephony or line telegraphy, miscellaneous boats,
medicine, motors, tobacco products, freight transport vehicles, meat and poultry offal and some mineral
products.
Chart 30 Commodity structure of Polish export in 2014 in comparison to years 2009 and 2013
Electric and machinery goods
Goods of chemical industry
Agricultural and food products
Metalurgical products
Miscellaneous and unclassified
Goods of wood and paper industry
Mineral products
Goods of light industry
2014
Ceramic goods
2013
2010
Leather
0
10
20
30
40
50
%
135
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Chart 31 Commodity structure of Polish import in 2014 in comparison to years 2009 and 2013
Mineral products
2014
Ceramic goods
2013
2010
Leather
0
10
20
30
40
%
Chart 32 Foreign trade turnover balance according to commodity groups in 2014 in comparison to years
2010 and 2013
Mineral products
Leather
Ceramic goods
2014
2013
2010
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10 bn EUR
136
6.4. Foreign trade in the first half of 2015
Year 2015 brought further improvement in turnover balance. According to preliminary data of the Central
Statistical Office of Poland, in the first half of 2015, export of goods reached the value of EUR 87.2
billion and it was 6.7% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. With an increase in
imports by 1.9% to EUR 84.3 billion, it translated into transformation of trade deficit of approx. EUR 1
billion recorded in the previous year into a surplus of nearly EUR 2.9 billion.
In the first half of 2015, faster growth of export to economically developed countries continued and the
export increased by 9% to over EUR 74.8 billion. In turn, import amounted to approx. EUR 56.3 billion
and was 3.6% higher than in the previous year. As a result, these outcomes translated into further
growth of surplus in turnover with this group of markets by EUR 4.2 billion, to over EUR 15.8 billion.
In the period of January-June 2015, the rate of sales to the EU markets amounted to 10% (to EUR 69.3
billion) and was nearly the same both in the case of eurozone countries (increase by 10%, to EUR 49.6
billion) and of other EU countries (10.2%, to EUR 19.6 billion). Import from EU countries clearly slowed
down. After its growth by approx. 8% in 2014, in first 6 months of 2015, it increased by 3.6% (to EUR
50.6 billion), including by 3.3% from the eurozone and by 4.6% from other EU countries. It resulted in
growth of surplus in exchange with EU by EUR 4.6 billion, to EUR 18.6 billion.
Export to German market, i.e. to our major trade partner, rose by 10.2% (to EUR 23.5 billion) which
allowed for an increase in positive balance of turnover with this market to approx. EUR 4.3 billion. Sales
to the markets of two subsequent partners, i.e. to the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic in the
first half of 2015 increased respectively by 12.7%, to EUR 5.8 billion, and 13%, to EUR 5.7 billion.
Furthermore, among the most significant EU countries, there was a growth of export to the Netherlands
(by 21.2%, to nearly EUR 4 billion), Spain (by 16.1%, to over EUR 2.3 billion), Italy (by 11.7%, to
approx. EUR 4.3 billion) and to Slovakia (by 9.7%, to EUR 2.3 billion).
Similar to the entire year 2014, export to the wide group of developing and less developed countries
decreased in the first half of 2015 decreased by 5.6%, to EUR 12.3 billion. It was primarily caused by
lowering the export to the Commonwealth of Independent States (as much as by 24.8%, to approx. EUR
4.7 billion), including mainly to Russia (by 29.5%, to nearly EUR 2.5 billion) and to Ukraine (by 11.4%, to
approx. EUR 1.1 billion) as well as to Belarus, the third market most important to Poland (by 31.8%, to
EUR 564 million). A similar at this time fall in import from CIS, i.e. by 27.2% (to approx. EUR 8.2 billion)
led to a decrease in trade deficit by nearly EUR 1.5 billion (to over EUR 3.4 billion).
On the other hand, exports to non-CIS developing countries reached the value of over EUR 7.6 billion
and was 12.4% higher than in the previous year. However, with faster growth of import from these
countries (15.7%, to EUR 19.8 billion), there was an increase of deficit in exchange by over EUR 1.8
billion, to approx. EUR 12.2 billion. In this group of markets one should pay attention to the fast growing
export to Turkey (by 41.6%, to over EUR 1.5 billion), China (by 14.6%, to approx. EUR 874 million),
Saudi Arabia (by 35.6%, to EUR 312 million) and Mexico (by 64.3%, to approx. EUR 295 million). At the
same time, there was a decline in exports to Algeria (by 48.4%, to EUR 155 million) and Singapore
(64.7%, to EUR 134 million).
As far as types of goods are concerned, the fastest growth was recorded in export of wood and paper
products (by 10.6%, to approx. EUR 4.2 billion), light industry products (by 10%, to approx. EUR 3.4
billion) and electromechanical products prevailing in Polish exchange with foreign countries (by 8.2%, to
over EUR 35.5 billion).
137
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In the group of electromechanical products (representing 38.9% in Poland’s export and 35.9% in
import), the highest increased were recorded in items including boilers, machinery and mechanical
appliances and their parts (by 8.6%, to over EUR 11.3 billion) and machinery and electrical equipment
and their parts (by 10.8%, to nearly EUR 10.3 billion) which constituted 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively,
of overall Polish export in the first half of 2015. At the same time, import grew faster than export, i.e. by
10.2%, to approx. EUR 32.8 billion, and thus the surplus in trade turnover of this group decreased by
EUR 354 million, to approx. EUR 2.7 billion.
In the first half of 2015, agri-food products constituted 12.8% of Polish sales to foreign markets. Its value
increased by 6.4%, to approx. EUR 11.2 billion. The export of prepared foodstuffs (by 11.6%, to over
EUR 5.2 billion) and of products of animal origin (by 7.1%, to nearly EUR 2.2 billion) increased the most
in this group. There was a slight decline in export of products of animal origin (by 0.5%, to over EUR 3.4
billion). At that time, agri-food import increased by 1.9% (to over EUR 7.6 billion), i.e. almost 3.5 times
slower than their export which resulted in growth of surplus in turnover of this commodity group by
approx. EUR 534 million, to over EUR 3.5 billion. The largest positive balance was developed in trade in
prepared foodstuffs (EUR 2.1 billion) and products of animal origin (nearly EUR 1.3 billion).
Export of chemical products, which are the second group in terms of turnover value in Polish foreign
trade, increased slower than on average (13.6% in export and 17.7% in import). In the first half of 2015,
their export amounted to nearly EUR 11.9 billion, i.e. value 4% higher than in the previous year. Import
of these products declined, in turn, by 0.5%, to EUR 14.9 billion which lead to reduction of deficit by
approx. EUR 535 million to EUR 3 billion.
A decrease of trade turnover both in terms of export and import was recorded only in the group of
mineral products, i.e. export dropped by 11.4%, to approx. EUR 3.2 billion, and import by 26.2%, to
EUR 7.1 billion. It resulted in a decline of usually high deficit in turnover with such goods by EUR 2.1
billion, to approx. EUR 4 billion.
6.5. Exchange rate and its influence on trade in goods
Next to the internal demand of our main trade partners, the exchange rate is one of the key factors
shaping the trends in Polish export and overall trade turnover.
The trend consisting in the weakening of Polish zloty against the major settlement currency in the Polish
trade in goods, i.e. euro, which lasted for three previous years, was reversed in 2014. Q2 and Q3 2014
were crucial in this regard, as the euro depreciated against Polish zloty by: 0.8% and 1.7%,
respectively. Although in Q4 common currency started to rise (by 0.7%), the average exchange rate of
the euro was lower against the zloty by 0.3% on an annual scale.
The fluctuations of the US dollar (a currency in which over 20% of settlements in Polish export are
made) were more pronounced. The exchange rate of US dollar increased from PLN 3.065 in January to
PLN 3.4287 in December, i.e. by approx. 12%, whereas in the period from February to July its value
was below the one from January and started to rise significantly only in the last four months of 2014. As
a result, the exchange rate of US dollar expressed in PLN was lower by 0.2%.
The relatively slight changes of the nominal exchange rate of Polish zloty against two major currencies
(euro and USD) considered in relation to 2013 as well as very moderate changes of currency prices of
exported goods resulted in the stabilisation of average transaction prices in Polish export in 2014.
138
Following a decline in those prices recorded in 2013 (down by 0.8%), year 2014 brought about their
stabilisation. Transaction prices in import fell by 1.7% in 2013. In 2014, these prices fell further by 2.7%,
which considering a neutral impact of changes in effective nominal exchange rate of Polish zloty against
major currencies was mainly caused by lower prices of imported crude oil.
As a result of the above-mentioned changes in transaction prices in both streams of trade turnover, the
year 2014 resulted in a substantial improvement of the price relations (terms of trade, ToT) of Polish
trade turnover following a 2.5% increase in 2013, the ToT index rose by 2.8% in 2014.
Chart 33 Changes in the pace of growth in transaction, foreign currency and NEER prices in exports in
the years 2000-2014
%
130
Transaction prices
Foreign currency prices
NEER - nominal effective exchange rate
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the National Bank of Poland and
Central Statistical Office data.
139
7. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY
7.1. Prices
As regards the intensity and direction of price changes in the Polish economy, 2013 was characterized
by further deceleration of the pace of growth. The CPI reached an annual average level of 0.9% –
clearly below the inflation goal and assumptions stipulated in the Budget Act. A drop in the pace of
growth of prices of food and prices associated with the use of apartments was observed, despite the
fact that they had the greatest impact on the change of the annual average index. In the middle of the
year, the growth of prices accelerated somewhat (in July and August the indices exceeded 1%), but the
second half of the year was once again characterized by declining prices.
In 2014, average annual prices of consumer goods and services remained unchanged compared
to level in the previous year. Similarly as in the previous year, the level of prices was mainly
determined by a relatively high volatility of food and energy carrier prices on international markets. The
drop in food prices was the result of, inter alia, high yields of agricultural crops in the country, dropping
prices of agricultural raw materials on global markets and restricted export of agricultural and food
products to Russia due to the imposed embargo. As regards energy raw materials, their prices were
substantially affected by the significant drop in crude oil prices.
In the second half of the year, prices were dropping increasingly faster with each month. In December
2014, CPI reached the level of -1.0% YoY – it was the sixth consecutive month in which deflation YoY
was observed. Internal factors, such as the lack of demand pressure and cost one, were conducive to
the decrease of consumer prices.
Chart 34 Changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the years 2009-2014
141
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
7.1.1.
Prices of consumer goods and services
In 2014, average annual prices of consumer goods and services remained unchanged compared to
prices in the previous year. The growth rate of prices was slower than provided for in the assumptions to
the Budget Act (2.4%) and slower than the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland (2.5%). The
price increase rate remained low in the first quarter of 2014 (YoY) and recorded negative values in the
second half of the year; it remained outside the defined inflation target fluctuation corridor (+/- 1
percentage point) throughout the whole year. In the four quarters of 2014, prices changed by 0.6%,
0.3%, -0.3% and -0.7%, respectively, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
On monthly basis, June was the last month in which a slight price increase was recorded (0.3%), with
an increasing deflation observed following that month until the end of the year. In effect, the deepest
decrease in prices was recorded in December 2014 (1.0% YoY). In the first months of 2015, the
Consumer Price Index remained at a negative level.
Chart 35 CPI changes in relation to the corresponding month of the previous year
The factors which had the biggest impact on the annual average Consumer Price Index in 2014 were
the prices related to the upkeep of an apartment (+0.3 p.p.) and prices of alcoholic beverages and
tobacco products (+0.24 p.p.). The prices of clothes and footwear (-0.24 p.p.), prices of food and
alcoholic beverages (-0.22 p.p.) and prices of goods and services related to transport (-0.21 p.p.) have
made the greatest impact in the opposite direction.
In 2014, food prices (YoY) have decreased by 0.9% on average, with price decreases pertaining mostly
to vegetables (-3.6%) and sugar (-28.8%). The slight increase in energy carrier prices (0.1%) resulted
from higher prices of thermal energy (+2.6%) and gas (+4.3%). The prices of clothes and footwear have
decreased by 4.7%.
The analysis of the relationship between CPI indicators and core inflation indicates that food and energy
price trends related to the drop in prices on global energy raw material markets in 2014 resulted in the
overall decrease in prices in the economy in 2014. Due to the fact that the level of core inflation has,
within the period under scrutiny, deviated from the average level of prices for consumer goods and
services (often even exceeding it), the excluded factor (in this case, energy and food prices) made a
significant contribution towards the aggregated results with respect to the CPI.
142
Table 54 CPI and core inflation index in 2014 and the successive months of 2015
Month
CPI
A
B
C
D
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
2014
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
I
II
III
2015
IV
V
VI
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.8
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.3
1.0
0.5
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
0.1
0.5
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.7
0.0
-0.6
-0.8
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.9
-0.3
0.4
-0.2
-1.0
-1.3
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-1.4
-1.9
-0.1
0.6
-0.3
-1.6
-2.1
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
-1.5
-2.0
-0.4
0.2
-0.4
-1.1
-1.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.9
-1.3
-0.3
0.4
-0.2
-0.8
-1.2
-0.3
0.2
-0.2
A – core inflation excluding administered prices (according to the ECB definition they include the components of the CPI the
final prices of which are fully or to a large extent determined by government institutions (central, regional, local) and
regulatory authorities);
B – core inflation excluding most volatile prices (prices of goods and services which are particularly susceptible to different
demand and supply shocks and/or are prone to vary seasonally to a substantial and differing extent over time);
C – core inflation excluding food and energy prices;
D – 15% trimmed mean (after applying a symmetrical cut by 15% on the left and on the right side of the distribution curve of
indices corresponding to the prices with highest and the lowest rate of change).
Source: National Bank of Poland.
Box 12 Core inflation measures
From March 2009 onwards, the National Bank of Poland started to calculate and publish new core inflation
measures:
- core inflation excluding administered prices (excluding prices which are not determined by markets, but are
subject to different forms of regulation, i.e. such goods and services the final prices of which are fully or to a large
extent determined by central government and local government institutions and regulatory authorities);
- core inflation excluding the most volatile prices (excluding the effect of the most unstable prices, i.e. prices of
such goods and services that are particularly susceptible to different types of demand and supply shocks and/or
are prone to vary seasonally to a substantial and differing extent over time, i.e. generally most food products
(especially fresh and low-processed fruit, vegetables and meat), energy products (fuels, gas, heating), Internet
access services, state administration and legal services);
- core inflation excluding the prices of food and energy (prices of commodities which are particularly susceptible
to internal and external supply shocks, i.e. prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages and energy);
- 15% trimmed mean.
7.1.2.
Prices of industrial and construction-assembly output 41
The annual average prices of industrial output sold in 2014 decreased by 1.5%, while in 2013 the same
prices decreased by 1.3%. The biggest drop in prices was recorded in mining and quarrying (down by
4.7% YoY). Prices also fell in manufacturing (down by 1.7%). However, an increase in prices was
recorded in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (by 1.2% YoY) and
electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply (by 1.1%).
A drop in prices was observed in 15 out of 22 divisions of manufacturing. In 2014, the most substantial
price decrease in manufacturing was recorded with respect to the manufacture of coke and refined
petroleum products (down by 6.8%), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down by
2.3%), as well as manufacture of food products and manufacture of electrical equipment (down by 2.1%
YoY). The highest increase was recorded in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products (up by 3.8%)
and the manufacture of tobacco products (up by 3.5% YoY).
The average annual prices of construction and assembly output decreased in 2014 by 1.2%, while in
2013 the same prices decreased by 1.8%. It is estimated that construction output prices decreased due
to the economic downturn in the second half of the year and the related low demand for real estate.
41
Manufacturing price indicators are stated in accordance with the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007.
143
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Chart 36 Changes in the prices of industrial output sold in comparison to the corresponding month of the
previous year
Chart 37 Changes in prices of construction and assembly output in comparison to the corresponding
month of the previous year
144
7.2. Monetary policy
7.2.1.
Basic factors influencing the implementation of the monetary policy
In its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2014, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) listed external factors
with the biggest potential impact on the volatility of prices in the Polish economy and on the monetary
policy of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), among which are uncertain perspectives for economic
growth in the world (in particular in the eurozone) and strongly expansive monetary policy of central
banks leading to an increase in the volatility of asset prices and exchange rates. As regards
endogenous factors, in the context of inflation processes, the MPC pointed towards the following
factors: economic activity in Poland, situation on the labour market, fiscal policy and the increase in
bank lending.
The economic growth rate in 2014 was higher than in the previous year. GDP increased by 3.4%
compared to a 1.7% increase in 2013. GDP growth rate during subsequent quarters was stable – it
fluctuated in the range of 3.3%-3.6% YoY. As the economic situation in the country improved and
inflation remained low, the situation on the labour market began to gradually improve, resulting in the
growth of employment and decline in unemployment in Q4 2014, as compared to Q1 of the same year.
The condition of the state budget proved to be better than assumed in the Budget Act – income was
higher, while expenditures were lower than assumed in the Act. As a result, the budget deficit amounted
to PLN 29.0 billion instead of PLN 47.5 billion planned in the Act. In relation to the above, the balance of
the entire public finance sector has improved, which led to a decrease in the general government debtto-GDP ratio from 55.7% in 2013 to 50.1% in 2014. Slight changes were also observed in the balance of
payments. The current account deficit-to-GDP ratio increased slightly from 1.3% in 2013 to 1.4% in
2014. The Polish foreign trade deficit, which in 2013 amounted to EUR 2.0 billion, grew to EUR 2.4
billion in 2014.
The trends which shaped the external environment of Poland were mostly stagnation and deflationary
trends. Economic growth in EU Member States remains slow and uncertain, with many States still
tackling the consequences of the global economic crisis. Throughout the entire year 2014, GDP of the
EU economy grew by 1.3%. In Germany, which is Poland’s main trade partner (accounting for approx.
25% of total Polish exports), GDP growth in 2014 reached the value of 1.6%42. Since the Polish
economy is strongly connected with the economic cycle in Germany, this fact had a positive impact on
the results of Polish economy, even though the extent of this impact was relatively low.
7.2.2.
Monetary policy implementation in 2014
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), calculated as a change in the prices of consumer goods and services
in a given month compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, constitutes the main basis
for interpretation of the inflation target. While analysing and explaining inflationary processes, the
Monetary Policy Council (MPC) also extensively applies core inflation measures.
42
Eurostat.
145
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Chart 38 CPI and net inflation indices as compared to the adopted inflation target and the range of
acceptable fluctuations
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The main objective set forth in the Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2014 was to keep inflation close to
the mid-term inflation target (2.5%). In connection with a stronger than expected decline in inflation in
the second half of the year, to a level below the inflation target, in October 2012 the MPC lowered
interest rates (except for the deposit rate) and narrowed the interest rate corridor to 2 p.p. As a result,
the reference rate was lowered by 0.5 p.p. and amounted to 2.0% as at the end of the year.
7.2.3.
Instruments of monetary policy implementation
Interest rates
The short-term interest rate was the main instrument used by the National Bank of Poland in 2014 to
implement the DIT strategy43.
The MPC specifies the NBP interest rates, which determine the interest of monetary policy instruments,
i.e. open market operations, reserve requirement and standing facilities44.
Pursuant to its announcements, the MPC maintained interest rates at an unchanged level until the end
of Q3 2014. However, due to a significant deviation of inflation from the inflation target, which could
constitute a threat to the stability of prices in the mid-term, on 8th of October 2014 the MPC adjusted the
monetary policy to the changing economic situation by lowering interest rates to the lowest level in
history. Interest rates were determined at the following levels: the reference rate – 2.0% (-0.5 p.p.), the
deposit rate – 1.0% (no change), the Lombard rate – 3.0% (-1.0 p.p.), the bills of exchange rediscount
rate – 2.25% (-0.5 p.p.). The MPC did not exclude further monetary policy adjustments, if the inflation
rate remains at a low level deviating from the inflation target and if there is a slowdown of economic
activity in the country with a simultaneous low growth in the economic environment of Poland.45
The Direct Inflation Target Strategy applied by the NBP since 1998.
The main NBP rate is the reference rate, which determines the level of market rates with the maturity date similar to the
maturity of basic open market operations. The NBP deposit and lombard rates determine the range of fluctuations for
overnight interbank interest rates.
45 Report on the implementation of the monetary policy for 2014, National Bank of Poland.
43
44
146
In March 2015, the MPC once again lowered interest rates – all of them – by 50 base points. At the
same time, it was announced that this decision constitutes the completion of the two-stage cycle of
monetary policy easing (together with the lowering of interest rates in October 2014), as a result of
which the NBP reference rate was lowered in total by 1 p.p. to the lowest level in history – 1.5%.
Chart 39 Interest rates and CPI
Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP), Central Statistical Office (GUS).
Open market operations
Open market operations are the basic instruments allowing for keeping short-term interest rates at a
level consistent with the inflation target set forth by the MPC. The NBP may carry out basic, fine-tuning
and structural operations.
In 2014, the NBP, as a part of its basic open market operations, once a week issued money bills with
the maturity date of 7 days. In this period, the average issue level of the said bills amounted to PLN
107.3 billion, i.e. PLN 17.0 billion less than in 2013.
Additionally, in 2014 the NPB issued money bills under the so-called fine-tuning operations with a
shorter maturity date than that which applied to basic operations. The aim of fine-tuning operations was
to reduce the impact of changes in the liquidity conditions in the banking sector on the level of shortterm market interest rates46. Throughout the year, a total of 19 fine-tuning operations were carried out,
with the average level of NBP money bills issued amounting to PLN 1,238 million and was PLN 608
million lower than in 2013.
Reserve requirement
It is the obligation of banks, loan institutions and branches of foreign banks operating in Poland to keep
reserves on the accounts of the National Bank of Poland. In 2014, this obligation was extended to
include cooperative savings and credit unions and the National Cooperative Savings and Credit Union.
Repayable cash deposited on bank accounts and generated through the sale of securities formed the
basis for the calculation of the value of the reserve requirement. This reserve was calculated and
maintained in PLN.
46
Report on the implementation of the monetary policy for 2014, National Bank of Poland.
147
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In 2014, the minimum reserve requirement rate amounted to 3.5%. As at the end of 2014, it amounted
to PLN 34.7 billion in nominal terms and was PLN 2.8 billion higher than in 2013 (up by 8.8%). Until 8
October 2014, the interest rate on reserve requirement funds maintained in the NBP amounted to 0.9
times the bills of exchange rediscount rate. From 9 October, the interest rate amounts to 0.9 of the NBP
reference rate. This change is aimed at maintaining the interest rate of reserve requirement funds below
the rate of return on basic open market operations, regardless of the reference rate level.47
Following the changes of the basic NBP interest rates in 2014, the average interest on the funds
accumulated on the NBP accounts under the reserve requirement amounted to 2.32% and was 0.55
percentage points lower than in 2013.
Standing facilities
Standing facilities contribute towards maintaining the stability of interbank interest rates. These
operations include the end-of-day deposit facility and the Lombard facility. The operations in question
are initiated by commercial banks and they are a source of short-term supplementation of the banking
sector liquidity and also allow banks to make overnight deposits of their surplus liquidity with the
National Bank of Poland.
In 2014, the total amount of overnight deposits in the NBP amounted to PLN 109.0 billion and was
35.5% lower than in 2013. The average daily level of the end-of-day deposit facility in 2014 amounted to
PLN 298 million, as compared to PLN 463 million in the previous year.
The total amount of the Lombard facility used per year amounted to PLN 49 million, as compared to
PLN 163 million in 2013. The average daily level of the facility used amounted to PLN 133 thousand.
Foreign exchange interventions
In 2014, the National Bank of Poland made no intervention on the foreign exchange market.
47
Report on the implementation of the monetary policy for 2014, National Bank of Poland.
148
8. PUBLIC FINANCE
Persistent high deficit in the public finance sector slows down capital accumulation and diminishes the
pace of potential GDP growth; this is because such a high level of deficit has a negative impact on
national savings, increases the national risk premium, raises the costs of capital and results in the need
of servicing an ever-increasing debt. Public finance discipline is the key element of macroeconomic
stability and of the credibility of the state itself; the latter is particularly important in the present period of
turbulence on financial markets and the accompanying uncertainty combined with the risk of sudden
capital flows.
The performance of the public finance sector is largely dependent on economic cycle. As a rule, during
a period of rapid economic growth the income from taxes grows dynamically and some categories of
public expenditure decrease due to the improved economic situation of the population. Similarly, during
an economic slowdown tax revenues fall, while some categories of public expenditure rise. These
phenomena could have been observed in Poland in recent years.
8.1. State budget
On 24th of January 2014, the Polish Sejm (lower house of the Polish parliament) enacted the Budget Act
for 2014. The acceptable level of state budget deficit was determined to be no more than PLN 47.5
billion. GDP growth rate in 2014 was higher than forecast for the purposes of the Budget Act for 2014
(2.5%) and amounted to 3.4%. In 2014, the annual average prices of consumer goods and services
remained unchanged compared to the growth of 2.4% forecast in the Act. As a result, the actual state
budget deficit at the end of 2014 was lower than initially assumed and amounted to PLN 29.0 billion.
State budget revenue
The state budget revenue amounted to PLN 283.5 billion. It was PLN 5.8 billion higher than assumed in
the Budget Act, which represented 102.1% of the amount initially planned. In comparison to 2013, the
revenue increased by PLN 4.3 billion, i.e. by 1.6% in nominal and real terms. The state budget revenueto-GDP ratio in 2014 has decreased to 16.4%, i.e. by 0.4 p.p. compared to 2013.
The downward trend of the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio, observed in recent years, resulted not only from
the economic slowdown in the recent period, but also from the systemic changes introduced in the
years 2008-2009, the most significant of which included:
 introduction of a child tax relief in the personal income tax (PIT);
 reduction in PIT rates, which resulted in the decrease in the PIT revenues in 2009 and partially in
2010 (through the annual tax return mechanism);
 the shortening in 2009 of the VAT return date from 180 to 60 days and the introduction of a
possibility of settling VAT on imports in an income statement with respect to certain simplified
procedures;
 elimination of legal restrictions on deducting VAT on cars with cargo compartments and on fuel
used in these vehicles.
149
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In 2014, VAT revenues amounted to PLN 124.3 billion and were PLN 8.6 billion higher than assumed in
the Budget Act. This means that the VAT revenue forecast contained in the Budget Act for 2014 has
been realized in 107.4%. In comparison to 2013, VAT revenues grew by 9.6%. The revenue-to-GDP
ratio amounted to 7.2%, i.e. increased by 0.4 p.p. compared to 2013.
In 2014, excise tax revenue amounted to PLN 61.6 billion and constituted 99.2% of the forecast
presented in the Budget Act. In comparison to 2013, excise tax revenues grew by 1.5%.
In 2014, the state budget revenue from the corporate income tax amounted to PLN 23.3 billion and
constituted 100.1% of the amount assumed in the Budget Act. As compared to 2013, these revenues
were PLN 0.2 billion, i.e. 0.8%, higher in nominal and real terms. The revenue-to-GDP ratio slightly
declined in 2014 compared to 2013 and amounted to 1.3%.
Table 55 Budget revenues and expenditures in years 2013-2014*
2013
Plan after
amendment
PLN billion PLN billion
2014
Execution
%
TOTAL RECEIPTS
275.7
279.2
101.2
1. Tax receipts
239.2
241.7
101.0
1.1. Indirect tax
174.1
175.4
100.8
1.2. Corporate income tax (CIT)
22.0
23.1
104.9
1.3. Personal income tax (PIT)
40.9
41.3
101.0
2. Non-tax receipts
35.0
35.1
102.9
2.1. Dividends and distributions from
6.9
7.1
102.9
profit
2.2. Fees, fines, interest and other
18.4
19.4
105.4
non-tax receipts
4. Payments from the EU and other
1.6
1.5
95.2
sources of non-reimbursable
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
327.3
321.3
98.2
Fixed expenditures
239.0
100.0
1. Subsidies to local government
156.3
155.2
99.2
authorities
2. Public debt servicing
42.7
42.5
100.0
3. Subsidies to the Social Insurance
37.1
37.1
100.0
Fund (FUS)
4 Subsidies to the Agricultural Social
15.9
15.9
100.0
Insurance Fund (KRUS)
5. Subsidies on national defence
20.2
20.1
99.7
6. EU budget contributions (projects
12.9
10.3
79.6
financed partly with EU funds)
7.Flexible expenditures
82.3
100.0
BALANCE*
51.6
42.2
81.8
*Percentage data calculated on the basis of quantities expressed in PLN million
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Plan
PLN billion
Execution
277.8
248.0
179.0
23.3
43.7
28.1
5.2
PLN
billion
283.5
254.8
187.1
23.3
43.0
27.2
4.2
%
102.1
102.1
104.5
100.1
98.4
96.7
80.9
18.4
18.1
98.5
1.6
1.5
92.5
325.3
154.0
312.5
227.2
152.3
96.1
100.0
98.8
36.2
30.4
34.5
30.4
95.3
100.0
16.1
16.1
100.0
23.5
12.2
23.4
8.8
99.6
72.5
47.5
85.3
29.0
100.0
61.0
In 2014, the state budget revenue from personal income tax amounted to PLN 43.0 billion and was PLN
0.7 billion (i.e. 1.6%) lower compared to the forecast presented in the Budget Act. Compared to 2013,
revenue from personal income tax was higher by PLN 1.7 billion (i.e. by 4.2% in nominal and real
terms). The ratio of the above-mentioned revenue to GDP amounted to 2.5% and remained at a similar
level as in 2012 and 2013.
150
Non-tax revenue was PLN 0.9 billion (i.e. 3.3%) lower than assumed in the Budget Act for 2014. The
assumed level of non-tax revenue was not achieved, among others, due to lower revenue from
dividends and distributions from profit by PLN 1 billion.
In 2014, EU funds, including EU contributions to the state budget, amounted to PLN 1.5 billion and were
PLN 0.1 billion (i.e. 7.5%) lower compared to the Budget Act for 2014. Revenue from EU funds was
0.4% higher compared to 2013.
State budget expenditure
The Budget Act for 2014 provided for state budget expenditure of PLN 325.3 billion. The state budget
expenditure realised in 2014 amounted to PLN 312.5 billion and were PLN 12.8 billion (i.e. 3.9%) lower
than anticipated. In comparison to 2013, expenditure was PLN 8.8 billion lower, which amounts to a
decrease by 2.7% in nominal terms and real terms. In 2014, the state budget expenditure-to-GDP ratio
amounted to 18.1%.
When analysing the structure of expenditure, it can be observed that the largest share is represented
by:
 various settlements (22.5%), under which substantial amounts were allocated towards general
subsidies to local government units and the contribution to the EU budget;
 mandatory social insurance (22.1%), with the largest amount of expenditure allocated to subsidies
to the Social Insurance Fund and the Pension and Disability Fund;
 public debt servicing (11.0%);
 national defence (7.5%).
As in the previous years, most of the state budget expenditure was fixed expenditure, i.e. expenditure
required under statutory provisions or legally binding commitments made at an earlier stage. Their share
in total expenditure in 2014 amounted to 72.7% and was 1.7 p.p. lower than in 2013. Flexible
expenditure accounted for 27.3% of the total state budget expenditure realized in 2014.
Table 56 Structure of state budget expenditure in years 2006-2014 (in %)
Fixed expenditures
Flexible expenditures
2006
74.3
25.7
2007
73.1
26.9
2008
72.7
27.3
2009
74.4
25.6
2010
75.0
25.0
2011
74.6
25.4
2012
74.9
25.1
2013
74.4
25.6
2014
72.7
27.3
The current structure of budget expenditure, for many years characterised by the dominance of fixed
expenditure, limits the possibilities of the government to determine the level of budget deficit. Statutory
provisions and earlier legal commitments require that the following categories of fixed expenditures be
realized: public debt servicing, subsidies to local government units, and support for the institutions
tasked with the administration of special-purpose funds. In the last year, an improvement was observed
with regard to the determination of the structure of state budget expenditure, and the share of fixed
expenditure decreased, which may be indicative of a trend to increase the flexibility of public spending.
Budget deficit
The state budget deficit in 2014 reached the value of PLN 29.0 billion, which represents 61.0% of the
amount planned in the Budget Act and 1.7% of GDP. The EU budget funds deficit amounted to PLN 0.3
billion and reached a level close to the amount planned in the Budget Act.
As at the end of May 2015, the state budget revenue amounted to PLN 116.3 billion, which accounts for
39.1% of the annual revenue adopted in the Budget Act for 2015. The spending is slightly higher and
151
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
accounts for 39.6% (PLN 135.9 billion). The budget deficit after the first five months was PLN 19.6
billion, i.e. 42.6% of the deficit adopted in the Budget Act for 2015 (PLN 46.1 billion).
8.2. Public finance
Improving of public finance performance and maintaining it at a safe level is a major challenge for the
current economic policy of Poland. The key objective is to cut the public finance sector spending,
reduce its deficit and maintain it at a desirably low level. Long-lasting budget deficit increases public
debt and has a negative effect on the country's economic situation.
Chart 40 Budget deficit and general government sector deficit (PLN billion – left axis and % of GDP – right
axis)
120
9
8
100
7
80
6
5
60
4
40
3
2
20
1
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Budget deficit (PLN bn)
General government deficit (PLN bn)
General government deficit (% GDP)
Budget deficit (% GDP)
2014
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of Ministry of Finance and Central
Statistical Office (GUS) data.
For the above reason, the permanent, significant deficit in the Polish public finance sector was a
disturbing phenomenon. The general government deficit in 2009 amounted to 7.4% of GDP (up by 3.7
percentage points compared to the previous year); a year later, the deficit in this sector reached the
level of 7.9% of GDP. The next two years brought about the desired correction of the deficit. In 2011,
the deficit amounted to PLN 76.2 billion, i.e. 4.9% of GDP, while in 2012 the deficit decreased to PLN
60.4. billion (3.7% of GDP). At the end of 2013, this category experienced a moderate growth, reaching
the amount of PLN 66.7 billion, i.e. 4.0% of GDP. At the end of 2014, the general government deficit
decreased to the level of PLN 55.2 billion, i.e. 3.2% of GDP48.
Based on the announcement of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) concerning the level of general government deficit and
debt in 2014 (the so-called fiscal notification) dated 17 April 2015.
48
152
Table 57 State Treasury debt and public finance sector debt* in years 2007-2014 (PLN billion and % of
GDP)
State Treasury debt
PLN bn
% GDP
2007
501.5
43.1
2008
569.9
44.7
2009
631.5
47.0
2010
701.9
49.6
2011
771.1
50.5
2012
793.9
49.8
2013
838.0
51.2
2014
779.9
45.1
General government sector
% GDP 45.0
47.1
50.9
54.9
56.2
55.6
57.1
50.1
debt
* The State Treasury debt includes domestic and foreign liabilities of the State Treasury (securities issued on the domestic
and foreign markets), credits and loans obtained and matured liabilities of budgetary units.
The debt of the general government sector (national public debt, public finance sector debt) includes the State Treasury debt
and the remaining debt of the sector of government bodies (including the debt of the social insurance sector) and debt of the
local government sector.
The level of general government debt has increased substantially during the last few years as a result of
the economic downturn. In 2008, the deficit amounted to PLN 600.8 billion, which represented 47.1% of
GDP. At the end of 2013, public debt amounted to PLN 926.1 billion. As a result of a non-recurring
event consisting in the redemption of treasury securities in February 2014, as part of the retirement
pension system reform, general government debt decreased at the end of 2014 to PLN 866.5 billion, i.e.
50.1% of GDP.
According to the forecasts for 2015 adopted by the Ministry of Finance, the general government deficit
and debt will amount to -2.7% and 51.7% of GDP, respectively49.
According to the initial data provided by the Ministry of Finance, at the end of Q1 2015, general
government debt amounted to PLN 885.7 billion, which is PLN 19.2 billion (2.2%) more compared to the
end of 2014.
Box 13 Fiscal rules
The main purpose of fiscal rules is to ensure fiscal and macroeconomic stability and to maintain (or possibly limit)
the size of the public finance sector at a specific level. The national fiscal framework in Poland is based on
several rules. The most important one is the rule of debt, provided for in two legal acts – the Constitution of the
Republic of Poland and the Act on Public Finance; the main aim of this principle is to prevent the state public debt
(calculated with the use of Polish methodology) from exceeding certain limits (expressed as a percentage of
GDP).
The fiscal framework was strengthened in parallel with the retirement pension system reform in 2013. The
stabilising expenditure rule and fiscal rules applicable to local government units (LGUs) were introduced to the
Polish legal order in the Act of 8th of November 2013 amending the Act on Public Finance and certain other acts.
Solutions aimed at limiting the risk of growth in debt or loss of liquidity of LGUs include a rule of at least
sustainable local government budget and individual debt limits, in force since 2014. A solution aimed at stabilising
the results of the general government in the medium perspective at the level of the medium-term budgetary
objective is the stabilising expenditure rule. The stabilising expenditure rule is effective as of 2015, but it has been
used in 2013 on ancillary basis during works on the Budget Act for 2014.
In May 2014, the Polish Sejm (lower house of the Polish parliament) adopted the amendment to the Act on Public
Finance which provides for the reduction of prudential thresholds related to the stabilising expenditure rule by 7
percentage points. New provisions provide for the replacement of the threshold of 55% of GDP with a threshold of
48%, while the threshold of 50% will be decreased to 43%. These changes are a consequence of the retirement
pension system reform, the implementation of which abruptly decreased the level of public debt.
49
Source: Convergence Programme - Update 2015.
153
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Box 14 Measures aimed at public finance consolidation
On 19th of June 2015, the Ecofin Council adopted the decision that suspended the excessive deficit procedure
with respect to Poland. Therefore, Poland reduced the excessive deficit a year earlier than recommended.
In 2009, the Council decided that an excessive deficit existed in Poland and recommended its reduction to a level
below 3% of GDP. Currently, having regard to the results of forecasts published by the European Commission in
May 2015, the fiscal notification provided by Poland in April 2015 and information contained in the Convergence
Programme – Update 2015 document, the Ecofin Council suspended the excessive deficit procedure with respect
to Poland, which had been in effect for 6 years. The decision took account of the costs related to the retirement
pension system reform, which were still incurred in 2014, estimated at 0.4% of GDP. Upon reflecting this value in
the deficit level, the deficit amounted to 2.8% of GDP and was reduced below the required level of 3% of GDP.
Following the suspension of the EDP, the government's actions should be aimed at further reduction in public
finance imbalance in a manner which does not threaten the country's medium-term development perspectives.
The suspension of the EDP allows for shaping the fiscal policy in a manner more suitable to the economic
situation, but still within the constraints arising from domestic and EU law, in particular in accordance with the
stabilising expenditure rule and requirements of the path to achieve the medium-term budgetary objective.
The suspension of the excessive deficit procedure should translate into an improvement of Poland's credibility. In
the future, this may result in a higher rating of Poland and will facilitate the improvement in economic results in
the medium- and long-term perspective.
The suspension of the excessive deficit procedure was possible due to previously implemented measures aimed
at public finance consolidation. The consolidation measures implemented in the years 2010-2014 have led to the
reduction in spending by 3.3 p.p. of GDP. Taking into account the funds provided by the European Union, the
ultimate beneficiaries of which are general government units, spending has been reduced by 3.8 p.p. of GDP.
This scale of reduction in spending was possible, inter alia, due to:
 the expenditure discipline rule which entered into force in 2011 (Article 112a of the Act on Public Finance),
restricting the rate of discretionary expenditure growth as well as of new fixed expenditure growth to 1% in
real terms per annum; In 2013, this rule was replaced with the stabilising expenditure rule.
 the restriction (from 2011 onwards) of the wages fund in state budgetary entities through the adoption of a
general rule which provides for the freezing the said fund at the nominal level attained in the previous year;
 the temporary (i.e. pertaining to the period during which Poland remains subject to the excessive deficit
procedure) prohibition on the adoption by the government of draft acts which may result in a decrease in the
revenues of public finance sector entities in relation to the amounts specified under the provisions of
applicable laws as well as of projects which result in an increase in expenditure (Article 112c of the Act on
Public Finance); This regulation was replaced at the end of 2013 with the stabilising expenditure rule.
 the current fiscal rules for local governments (as amended in 2009):
 the principle which provides that the current financial results need to be at least sustainable, established in
Article 242 of the Act on Public Finance (from 2011 onwards);
 individual debt restrictions laid down in Article 243 of the Act on Public Finance (from 2014 onwards the limit
will be calculated on the basis of a three-month moving average, for the first time for the years 2011-13).
 the restriction of privileges entitling to early retirement;
 the restriction of the amount of funeral allowance to PLN 4 thousand in 2011;
 the introduction of the income criterion entitling to receive a one-time benefit on account of child birth.
The most important activities on the side of revenues include:
 the reduction of the part of the social security contribution transferred to open-ended pension funds (the part
of the contribution transferred to those funds was reduced from 7.3% of the pension assessment basis to
2.3% from May 2011 onwards), and the reduction of costs of debt servicing in result of the transfer of certain
asset categories (inter alia, bonds and bills issued by the State Treasury) by open-ended pension funds to
the Social Insurance Institution in February 2014;
 the increase of VAT rates from 22% to 23% and from 7% to 8%, with a concurrent decrease of the VAT rate
for basic foodstuffs from 7% to 5% (from January 2011 onwards);
 the restriction of the possibility to deduct input VAT on the purchase of passenger cars homologated as
goods vehicles and of fuel for such vehicles (from the beginning of 2011 onwards);
 the increase of excise tax with regard to diesel fuel and of the fuel surcharge (from January 2012 onwards);
154











the increase of excise tax on cigarettes (annually from 2010 onwards);
the abolition of the bio-components excise allowance (from May 2011 onwards);
the freezing of the personal income tax (PIT) scale on the nominal level from 2009;
changes to the tax on the income from bank deposits which restrict the possibility of evading this tax
(introduced in 2012);
the introduction of a charge for the use of certain natural deposits (tax on the mining of copper and silver –
from April 2012 onwards);
changes to the tax on the income from bank deposits which restrict the possibility of evading this tax
(introduced in 2012);
the increase of disability pension contribution paid by employers (up by 2 percentage points from February
2012 onwards);
the restriction of the 50% tax deduction on expenses related to income from copyright and related rights
(from January 2013 onwards);
the restriction of the Internet tax credit and modification of the child tax credit (from January 2013 onwards);
the extension of excise tax to natural gas for heating purposes, excluding households (from November 2013
onwards);
the reduction of the limit entitling taxpayers to an exemption from the obligation to maintain a cash register
(from PLN 40 thousand to PLN 20 thousand) (from January 2013 onwards).
General government revenue in 2014 has increased by 0.5 percentage points of GDP compared to 2013 and
amounted to 38.6% of GDP. It is forecasted that general government revenue will continue to grow in 2015 up to
the level of 38.8% of GDP. Revenue less transfers related to non-returnable EU assistance in 2015 should reach
the level of 37.2% of GDP.
8.3. Meeting the Maastricht Treaty criteria
Poland has not adopted the common currency (EUR) yet50. The necessary requirement for accession to
the eurozone is to meet the convergence criteria set out in Article 121(1) of the Maastricht Treaty on the
European Union. The convergence criteria are macroeconomic indicators whose fulfilment means that
the given country is prepared to join the common currency area. The convergence criteria can be
divided into fiscal and monetary criteria (inflation criterion, exchange rate criterion and interest rate
criterion).
Fiscal criterion
The fiscal criterion pertains to the percentage ratio of the general government deficit debt to GDP. The
general government deficit to GDP ratio measured in market prices should not exceed 3% in the year
preceding the evaluation of criteria fulfilment. The public debt-to-GDP ratio measured in market prices
should not exceed 60% in the year preceding the evaluation.
At the end of 2008, the ratio of general government deficit-to-GDP exceeded the reference threshold of
3% and amounted to 3.7%. In 2009, this trend became more noticeable, which resulted in the deficit
reaching the value of 7.4% of GDP. In 2010, the deficit increased once again, attaining the value of
7.8% of GDP. From 2011 the situation has been improving gradually; in 2011 the deficit-to-GDP ratio fell
to 5.1%, while at the end of 2014 this value reached the level of 3.2%. As regards the general
government debt-to-GDP criterion, in 2014 Poland remained substantially below the acceptable
threshold (60%), i.e. at the level of 50.1%.
From amongst new EU Member States, the following countries joined the eurozone: Slovenia (1 January 2007), Malta and
Cyprus (1 January 2008), Slovakia (1 January 2009) Estonia (1 January 2011), Latvia (1 January 2014) and Lithuania (1
January 2015).
50
155
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
According to the European Commission’s economic forecasts published in May, this year’s deficit in
Poland is expected to amount to -2.8% of GDP, while in 2016 there will be a deficit of 2.6%. The general
government debt will amount to 50.9% and 50.8%, respectively.
Inflation criterion
The inflation criterion sets a limit for the permissible inflation rate. The average inflation rate in the year
preceding the evaluation should not exceed the arithmetic average for the three best performing EU
Member States in terms of price stability by more than 1.5 percentage points. According to the
methodology adopted, inflation should be measured using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
(HICP). According to the data for May 2015, the criterion for that period was 1.0% and the HICP (12M
average) in Poland reached the level of -0.5%51. This means that Poland has met the price stability
criterion during this period. The reference value was established on the basis of data from three
countries with the most stable prices: Spain, Poland and Cyprus.
Exchange rate criterion
The exchange rate criterion is a requirement for participation in the ERM II mechanism. According to
this criterion, a Member State should respect the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the
exchange rate mechanism without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the evaluation
of compliance with convergence criteria. This criterion is considered fulfilled when a Member State has
kept its currency exchange rate within the fluctuation margins (+/- 15%) under the European Monetary
System for at least two years before the evaluation. Since Poland does not participate in the exchange
rate mechanism provided (the ERM II mechanism), in 2014 our country did not meet the exchange rate
criterion.
Interest rate criterion
This criterion is fulfilled when the average nominal long-term interest rate in the evaluated country does
not exceed the reference value. The reference value is determined on the basis of the arithmetic
average of interest rates in the three best performing EU Member States in terms of price stability and
by adding 2.0 percentage points to the said average. Interest rates are measured on the basis of longterm government bonds or comparable securities, and the average nominal long-term interest rate is
calculated as an arithmetic average over the last 12 months.
In May 2015, the yield on Polish 10-year bonds did not exceed the reference value of 4.4% in force at
that time and amounted to 2.8%. The reference value was calculated on the basis of data pertaining to
Spain and Poland52. Cyprus was excluded from the analysis of reference value, as it does not finance
public sector debt through the issuance of bonds.
Table 58 Meeting of the Maastricht criteria by Poland
2014
2015*
Criterion
Poland
Criterion
Poland
General government sector deficit-GDP ratio (in %)
-3.0
-3.2
-3.0
-2.8 (-2.7)
General government sector debt-GDP ratio ** (in %)
60.0
50.1
60.0
50.9 (51.7)
Inflation (HICP – in %)
1.3
0.1
1.0
-0.5
Interest rates
5.3
3.5
4.4
2.8
*According to the data available in May 2015 and European Commission forecast (in brackets – data from Convergence
Programme – Update 2015.
**According to the ESA'2010 Methodology – General Government (GG).
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
51
52
Source: Nominal Convergence Monitor – July 2015, Ministry of Finance.
Ibidem.
156
9. INDUSTRY
9.1. Industrial output dynamics and structure
9.1.1.
Industrial output dynamics
After a relatively fast growth of industrial output in years 2010 and 2011 (respectively by 9.0% and
7.5%), a significant deceleration of the pace of growth occurred in the next three years. In 2012, output
increased by 0.5%, in 2013 – by 1.8%, while in 2014 – by 3.1%. Over the last three years, the output
growth rate accelerated from year to year.
Sold output calculated in current prices in 2014 amounted to PLN 1,230 billion, compared to PLN -1,183
billion in 2013.
The manufacturing sector, accounting for more than 80% of overall production, has a decisive impact on
the growth rate of industrial output. In 2014, output in this section grew by 4.3%. The second section in
which growth in output was observed was the water supply, sewerage and waste management section
(up by 2.7%). A decline in output was observed in the remaining two sections: in mining and quarrying
the result decreased by 5.8%, while for electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply the
decrease amounted to 3.9%.
Chart 41 Changes in industrial output sold by sections of industry in 2013 and 2014 (compared to the
previous year)
% 6
4
2
3.1
4.3
3.3
2.8
2.7
1.9
1.8
0
-0.9
-2
-4
-3.9
-6
-5.8
-8
Industry
Section B
Section C
2013
Section D
Section E
2014
Section B – mining and quarrying,
Section C – manufacturing,
Section D – electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply,
Section E – water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.
Source: Concise Statistical Yearbook 2015, Central Statistical Office (GUS) 2015, calculations by the Strategy and Analyses
157
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In the first half of 2015, industrial output grew by 4.6%, compared to a 4.3% decline in the first
half of the previous year53. In the manufacturing section, output grew by 5.6% (compared to an
increase of 6.1% in the previous year), in water supply, sewerage and waste management it increased
by 3.9% (compared to 2.2% in the previous year), while in mining and quarrying the increase recorded
amounted to 3.1% (compared to a decline by 6.5% in 2013). In the field of electricity, gas, steam and
hot water generation and supply, output declined by 4.4% (compared to a decline of 5.7% in the
previous year). Output sold calculated in current prices in the first half of 2015 amounted to
PLN 585 billion, compared to PLN 574 billion in 2013.
The tendencies observed in Poland as regards the industrial output dynamics in each section in the
long-term perspective correspond to the tendencies observed in economically developed countries.
Output in the manufacturing section, which shapes the dynamics in the entire industry, is experiencing
the fastest growth. Meanwhile, output in the mining and energy sections is on a decline. In 2014, as
compared to 2005, overall industrial output increased by 50.9%, including an increase in the
manufacturing section output by 63.4%. At the same time, the mining and quarrying section and
electricity, gas and hot water generation and supply section output decreased by 10.8% and 9.1%,
respectively. A growth by 46.1% was observed in the water supply, sewerage and waste management
section.
In 2014, 16 out of 22 examined divisions of the manufacturing section recorded output growth
(compared to 12 in 2013). The largest increase occurred in the manufacture of furniture (up by 13.7%),
manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (up by 11.5%) and manufacture of textiles (up
by 9.1%). The largest decline was observed in the manufacture of other transport equipment (down by
5.3%) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down by 1.9%).
In the first half of 2015, an increase in output was recorded in 21 out of 22 examined divisions
(compared to 19 in the previous year). The highest increase was recorded in the manufacture of
electrical equipment (up by 13.7%), manufacture of tobacco products (up by 11.5%), manufacture of
motor vehicles (up by 10.3%) and manufacture of furniture (up by 10.2%). A decline was recorded only
in the manufacture of beverages (down by 1.8%).
The manufacturing section exhibits a substantial degree of diversity in terms of output dynamics in the
long-term perspective. In 2014, in comparison to 2005, the largest increase (by nearly threefold)
occurred in the manufacture of electrical equipment and manufacture of computer, electrical and optical
products. An increase by over twofold was observed in the manufacture of metal products. A decline
occurred in two areas: manufacture of tobacco products (down by 28%) and manufacture of wearing
apparel (down by approx. 9%).
Industrial output dynamics according to main industrial groups was diversified in 2014. Output grew in
four commodity groups: investment goods (up by 7.4%, compared to 3.9% in the previous year),
intermediate goods (up by 6.3%, compared to 1.6%), consumer durables (up by 5.7%, compared to
4.0%) and consumer non-durables (up by 0.7%, compared to 4.0% in the previous year). A decline was
recorded only with respect to the manufacture of energy-related goods – down by 3.7%, compared to a
decrease of 0.3% in 2013.
The average employment in the industry in 2014 was 2,677 thousand people and was 1.9% higher than
the year before (in 2013, employment dropped by 1.8%). In manufacturing, the employment increased
by 2.9%, while in water supply, sewerage and waste management employment grew by 1.8%. In 2013,
53
Data concerning the first half of 2014 and 2015 pertain to business entities which employ more than 9 individuals.
158
these sections recorded a decline in employment by 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively. In 2014, employment
in mining and quarrying decreased by 5.1%, while for electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation
and supply the decrease amounted to 4.8%. Employment in these sections also fell in the previous year
– by 3.1% and 6.6%, respectively.
Chart 42 Changes in output, employment and labour efficiency in the industry in 2013 and 2014
(compared to the previous year)
%
4
3.7
3.1
3
1.9
1.8
2
1.2
1
0
-1
-2
-1.8
-3
2013
Industrial output
2014
Employment
Labour productivity
Chart 43 Changes in labour efficiency by sections of industry in 2013 and 2014 (compared to the previous
year)
% 7
6.6
6.1
6
5
4
3.7
3.5
3.3
3
2
1
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.9
Section D
Section E
0
-1
-0.7
-2
Industry
Section B
Section C
2013
2014
159
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Labour efficiency measured by output sold per one employed person increased in 2014 by 1.2%
(compared to a 3.7% increase in the previous year). The main reason for a decrease in the growth rate
of labour efficiency in 2014 was the dynamic growth in employment, with a substantial decline in
employment in the previous year. In 2013, efficiency increased in all sections of the industry. In 2014,
efficiency increase in three sections, with the highest increase recorded in manufacturing (up by 1.4%).
A decline in efficiency (by 0.7%) was observed in mining and quarrying.
In 2014, the average gross monthly salary in the industry amounted to PLN 3,872 and increased by
2.9% in nominal terms, compared to the 4.6% growth recorded in the previous year. Real wages also
grew by 2.9% (compared to a 3.9% increase in the previous year). In 2014, the increase in real wages
was equal to the increase of nominal wages, as the consumer price index amounted to 100%. The only
section in which real wages decreased was mining and quarrying (down by 0.1%). The highest increase
was observed in manufacturing (up by 4.3%).
Table 59 Dynamics of production, employment, efficiency and salaries and changes in unit labour costs
in sections of industry in years 2013 and 2014
Output
Avarage employment
Employment
Labour efficiency
Avarage salary
Salary (nominal terms)
CPI
Salary (real terms)
Change of unit labour cost
Unit
Industry
2013
2014
Section B
2013
2014
Section C
2013
2014
Section D
2013
2014
Section E
2013
2014
dynamics
thous.
persons
dynamics
dynamics
PLN
dynamics
dynamics
dynamics
dynamics
101.8
2,627
103.1
2,677
103.3
168
94.2
160
101.9
2,187
104.3
2,249
99.1
137
96.1
130
102.8
136
102.7
138
98.2
103.7
3,764
104.6
100.7
103.9
100.2
101.9
101.2
3,872
102.9
100.0
102.9
101.7
96.9
106.6
6,809
107.7
100.7
107.0
100.3
94.9
99.3
6,802
99.9
100.0
99.9
100.6
98.6
103.3
3,387
104.4
100.7
103.7
100.3
102.9
101.4
3,532
104.3
100.0
104.3
102.9
93.4
106.1
6,235
106.1
100.7
105.4
99.3
95.2
100.9
6,356
101.9
100.0
101.9
100.9
99.3
103.5
3,565
102.8
100.7
102.1
98.6
101.8
100.9
3,676
103.1
100.0
103.1
102.2
Section E – water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities,
Chart 44 Changes in labour efficiency, real wages and unit labour costs in the industry in 2013 and 2014
%
5
4
3.7
3.9
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.2
1
0.2
0
2013
Labour productivity
2014
Wage and salaries
Labour costs
160
In 2014, similarly to 2013, the labour efficiency growth rate was slower than the real wage growth rate,
which resulted in higher unit labour costs. In 2014, these costs increased much faster than in the
previous year, growing by 1.7%, compared to a 0.2% increase in the previous year. Higher cost growth
rate in 2014 was mainly the consequence of a threefold decrease in the growth rate of labour efficiency.
In 2014, unit labour costs increased in all sections of the industry. The highest increase was observed in
manufacturing (up by 2.9%) and water supply, sewerage and waste management (up by 2.2%).
Chart 45 Changes in unit labour costs in individual sections of industry in the years 2013 and 2014
%
3.5
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.5
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-1.4
-2.0
Industry
Section B
Section C
2013
Section D
Section E
2014
Section E – water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
9.1.2.
Structure of output sold in individual sections and divisions of
industry
Changes occurring with regard to the share of individual sections and divisions in the structure of
industrial output are the consequence of a diversified output growth rate and changes in prices of output
sold.
In 2014, the only section that increased its share in industrial output sold, by 1.5% compared to the
previous year (in current prices), was the manufacturing which accounted for over 85% of overall output.
The share of other sections has decreased: the most in mining and quarrying (by approximately 0.8% to
4.0%) and electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply (by approximately 0.6% to
approximately 8.1%). The share of the water supply, sewerage and waste management sections
decreased by 0.1 p.p. to 2.4%.
With respect to the manufacturing, the largest share in the structure of output in current prices in
2014 was observed in the manufacture of food products (18.5%), manufacture of motor vehicles
(10.8%), manufacture of metal products (7.9%) and manufacture of coke and refined petroleum
products (7.6%). In the previous years, these four divisions also represented the largest share in the
161
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
output structure. In 2014, these divisions accounted for 44.8% of overall manufacturing section output
(compared to 45.7% in the previous year).
Table 60 Changes in industrial output by sections of industry, in current prices
Unit
Production
PLN bn
Industry
2013
2014
1,183
1,230
Section B
2013 2014
57
49
Section C
2013
2014
993
1,051
Section D
2013
2014
103
100
Section E
2013 2014
30
30
%
100.0
100.0
4.8
4.0
84.0
85.5
8.7
8.1
2.5
2.4
The greatest positive changes in the output structure (in current prices) in comparison to 2013 were
recorded in the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and manufacture of furniture. These
divisions increased their share by 0.3 p.p. to 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively. The most substantial
negative changes, occurred in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (decrease in
share by 0.8 p.p. to 7.6%) and manufacture of motor vehicles (decrease in share by 0.3 p.p. to 10.8%).
Table 61 Sold production, its dynamics and structure in current prices by divisions of manufacturing
section in the years 2013 and 2014
Output dynamics
Output
in PLN bn
Production
structure in
%
2013 2014
100.0 100.0
18.4
18.5
2.0
1.9
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
2013
2014
2013
2014
Manufacturing
101.9 104.3
993.7 1,051.6
Manufacture of food products
101.3 100.0
182.7
194.0
Manufacture of beverages
98.4
99.9
19.6
20.2
Manufacture of tobacco products
98.8 105.7
3.7
4.3
Manufacture of textiles
110.3 109.1
10.4
11.4
Manufacture of wearing apparel
99.2
99.1
8.1
8.6
Manufacture of leather and related products
105.6 105.3
4.2
4.6
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and
103.4 106.0
30.8
35.0
3.1
3.3
cork
Manufacture of paper and paper products
108.1 104.9
31.9
35.3
3.2
3.4
Printing and reproduction of recorded media
112.4 104.5
12.4
13.4
1.2
1.3
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
98.0
99.7
83.8
80.4
8.4
7.6
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
97.0
98.1
55.6
55.8
5.6
5.3
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and
103.1 104.3
11.9
12.5
1.2
1.2
pharmaceutical preparations
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
105.5 106.0
67.8
73.3
6.8
7.0
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
98.5 107.9
42.2
46.9
4.2
4.5
Manufacture of basic metals
96.2 106.1
41.6
44.7
4.2
4.2
Manufacture of fabricated metal products
101.0 106.5
77.9
82.7
7.8
7.9
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical
92.5 111.5
31.2
35.0
3.1
3.3
products
Manufacture of electrical equipment
108.7 106.8
45.7
48.3
4.6
4.6
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
93.7 108.7
36.8
40.3
3.7
3.8
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi106.7 105.1
109.9
113.6
11.1
10.8
trailers
Manufacture of other transport equipment
99.6
94.7
16.2
16.1
1.6
1.5
Manufacture of furniture
110.4 113.7
31.6
36.4
3.2
3.5
162
Apart from the above-mentioned changes in output growth rate, the change in output structure resulted
also from highly diversified changes in prices. In 2014, the prices of industrial output sold were 1.5%
lower than in 2013. As regards the sections of industry, the diversification in the change in prices ranged
from the 4.7% decline in mining and quarrying to the 1.2% increase in water supply, sewerage and
waste management. In manufacturing, prices decreased by 1.7%, with the diversification of price
changes in divisions ranging from the 6.8% decline in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum
products to the 3.8% increase in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products.
9.1.3.
Manufacture of selected products
The information below concerns the production volume of industrial products according to the Polish
Classification of Products and Services (PKWiU) introduced in 2008 and the PRODCOM list
recommended by Eurostat for product studies in EU Member States. The data applies to business
entities operating in the national economy which employ more than 49 individuals.
Table 62 Manufacture of selected products in the years 2012-2014
Unit
2012
2013
2014
2013/2012
96.5
102.5
Dynamics
2014/2013
95.1
97.1
2014/2012
Hard coal
mn tonnes
79.6
76.8
73.0
91.7
Lignite
mn tonnes
64.2
65.8
63.9
99.5
Oils from crude oil and oils from
thous. tonnes
669
959
947
143.3
98.7
141.6
bituminous minerals
Natural gas in liquid or gas state
hcubic meter
5,780
5,682
5,543
98.3
97.6
95.9
Copper ores and concentrates
thous. tonnes 33,587 34,073 34,457
101.4
101.1
102.6
Men’s or boys’ suits and ensembles
thous. units
1,121
1,147
1,156
102.3
100.8
103.1
Women’s or girls’ suits and
thous. units
291
255
195
87.6
76.5
67.0
ensembles
Footwear (including rubber)
mn pairs
29.2
34.3
36.4
117.5
106.1
124.7
Coke and semi-coke obtained from
mn tonnes
8.7
9.2
9.4
105.7
102.2
108.0
coal, lignite or peat; retort carbon
Motor gasoline
thous. tonnes
4,027
4,040
3,849
100.3
95.3
95.6
Diesel oils
thous. tonnes 10,927 10,954 10,726
100.2
97.9
98.2
Nitrogenous fertilizers
thous. tonnes
1,876
1,832
1,941
97.7
105.9
103.5
Phosphatic fertilizers
thous. tonnes
466
367
408
78.8
111.2
87.6
Potassic fertilizers
thous. tonnes
334
299
294
89.5
98.3
88.0
Cement
mn tonnes
15.8
14.5
15.4
91.8
106.2
97.5
Lime
thous. tonnes
1,749
1,665
1,783
95.2
107.1
101.9
Crude steel
thous. tonnes
8,580
8,198
8,797
95.5
107.3
102.5
Hot rolled products
thous. tonnes
7,789
7,587
7,855
97.4
103.5
100.8
Hot rolled products
thous. tonnes
576
590
634
102.4
107.5
110.1
Aluminium technically pure
thous. tonnes
7.4
2.7
9.4
36.5
348.1
127.0
Unwrought, unalloyed refined
thous. tonnes
586
584
588
99.7
100.7
100.3
copper
Television receivers
thous. units
20,480 18,691 19,630
91.3
105.0
95.8
Electric motors and generators
thous. units
23,511 25,255 30,817
107.4
122.0
131.1
Household refrigerators and freezer
thous. units
2,220
2,885
3,182
130.0
110.3
143.3
Household automatic washing
thous. units
4,953
5,634
6,366
113.7
113.0
128.5
machines
Agricultural tractors
thous. units
3.3
2.5
3.5
75.8
140.0
106.1
Passenger cars
thous. units
540
475
473
88.0
99.6
87.6
Maritime ships
thous. GT
57.4
8.0
8.8
13.9
110.0
15.3
Electricity
TWh
162
165
159
101.9
96.4
98.1
163
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In 2014, a decrease in output was recorded with respect to 10 of the presented 29 products. A
particularly significant decline was observed in the manufacture of women's and girls' suits and
ensembles (down by 23.5%). In the remaining nine sections, the decline did not exceed 5%. On the
other hand, the most substantial increase in output pertained to the manufacture of primary aluminium
(up by nearly 3.5-fold), agricultural tractors (up by 40.0%), electrical motors and generators (up by
22.0%) and washing machines (up by 13.0%).
9.2. Situation in selected sectors
9.2.1.
Hard coal mining
In 2014, the situation of the hard coal mining sector was particularly complicated. The structural
oversupply of hard coal resulting from changes in the power generation sector, the decline in prices on
global markets caused by increased supply from open-cast mines and high operating costs resulted in
decreased profitability of coal companies. Since 2006, the sales of indigenous hard coal to the Polish
energy industry decreased by over 15%. In addition, the price of hard coal on global markets dropped
by over 50% since 2011.
Table 63 Production and financial results of the hard coal mining companies in which the State Treasury
has a controlling stake in years 2013 and 2014
Unit
1
2
3
4
Tech.-econ.
indicators
2013
2014
2013=100
72,514
94.8
276,869
92.5
309,42
102.2
70,305
90.7
61,955
92.6
8,350
79.1
275,91
94.2
8,215
123.4
100.7
94.4
- 6.0
91.7
706
100.3
30,434.5
102.5
18,974.8
85.0
31,816.5
106.5
21,252.7
93.2
-2,278.0
470.7
-1,342.7
458.7
2,722.6
100.4
14,402.0
121.1
3,538.7
126.3
0.58
-4.2
Coal production, total
thous. t.
76,466
Daily coal production, daily
thous. t.
299,398
Average unit cost of coal production*
PLN/t
302,87
Coal sales, in which:
thous. t.
77,496
- domestic market
thous. t.
66,941
- exports
thous. t.
10,555
5
Average coal price*
PLN/t
292,78
6
Coal stocks in the end of the period
thous. t.
6,658
7 Employment Employment in the end of the period
thous. per.
106.7
8 results
Employment change
thous. per.
-6.6
9
Efficiency
t/work/year
704
10 Financial
Total revenues
PLN mn
29,706.7
results
including the sale of coal
PLN mn
22,331.0
11
Total costs
PLN mn
29,870.3
including the sale of coal
PLN mn
22,814.9
12
Wynik ze sprzedaży węgla
PLN mn
-483,9
13
Net result
PLN mn
-292,7
14
Claims
PLN mn
2,711.1
15
Liabilities
PLN mn
11,893.1
in which: long term
PLN mn
2,802.7
16
Liquidity ratio
0.97
17
Net profitability indicator
%
- 1.0
* data for 2013. after the examination of financial reports by auditors
** data of the production and sale of coal address all coal producers (Kompania Węglowa S.A., Katowicki Holding Węglowy
S.A., Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa S.A., Tauron Wydobycie S.A. (formerly Południowy Koncern Węglowy S.A.), Lubelski
Węgiel Bogdanka S.A., KWK Kazimierz - Juliusz Sp. z o.o., Zakład Górniczy Siltech Sp. z o.o., PG Silesia Sp. z o.o., EKO –
PLUS Sp. z o.o.). *** data of financial performance, prices, costs, revenues, employment, productivity include data:
Kompania Węglowa S.A., Katowicki Holding Węglowey S.A., Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa S.A., Tauron Wydobycie S.A.
(formerly Południowy Koncern Węglowey S.A.), LW Bogdanka S.A., KWK Kazimierz – Juliusz Sp. z o.o.,and Spółki
Restrukturyzacji Kopalń S.A.
Source: Data provided by the Department of Mining of the Ministry of Economy.
164
The unfavourable situation of domestic manufacturers on global hard coal markets related to low
demand, oversupply and dropping prices lead to difficulties in the operation of domestic mining
enterprises as early as in 2013, which resulted in a decline of competitiveness of Polish coal and,
consequently, excessive growth of coal reserves deposited in the form of coal heaps near mining
facilities. In 2014, the unfavourable supply and demand conditions intensified and together with the lack
of satisfying results concerning the reduction of production costs resulted in a decline in sales that
threatened the financial liquidity of coal companies. The reduction of coal production by 4.0 million
tonnes in 2014 and the decline in sales by 7.2 million tonnes resulted in the increase of coal reserves to
the level of 8.2 million tonnes, i.e. close to the record level from 2012 (8.4 million tonnes). At the same
time, Poland imported 10.3 million tonnes of cheaper coal (approx. 2% less than in 2013).
In 2014, the output of hard coal in Poland amounted to 72.5 million tonnes and was 5.2% lower
compared to 2013. The sales of coal declined by 9.3% and attained the level of 70.3 million tonnes. The
decreased total sales of coal and simultaneous reduction of average selling price (net selling price exmine of coal with excise tax decreased by 5.5% and amounted to PLN 278.60 per tonne), the revenue
from the sales of coal declined by 15%.
The difficult situation experienced by the hard coal mining sector in 2014 continues in 2015 as well. Low
hard coal prices on the international market and the lack of perspectives for increase thereof, as well as
the high fixed costs of Polish mines and the lack of possibility to flexibly adapt them to market
conditions, stemming from their structure, resulted in the low competitiveness of coal mined in Silesian
mines. Hard coal mining in Poland (especially in Śląsk) should be regarded as a low-profitability sector.
The exhaustion of shallower deposits located in better geological conditions forces mines to reach for
deposits located at substantial depths (even below 1000 m) or deposits subject to a higher degree of
methane, water or cave-in hazards, which causes higher extraction costs. Meanwhile, global coal prices
are largely determined by cheaper open-cast mines.
A structural problem of Polish hard coal mining industry is its limited capacity to adapt to changing
market conditions related to business cycles. It is estimated that approx. 80% of coal production costs
are of a fixed nature. A substantial part of these costs is represented by historically shaped labour costs.
In order to undertake actions aimed at stabilising the situation in the sector, the Decree No. 28 of the
Prime Minister of 5th of May 2014 established the Inter-ministerial Team for the Functioning of Hard Coal
Mining Sector in Poland. The Team comprises representatives of the Ministry of: Economy, Labour and
Social Policy, Finance, Infrastructure and Development, Treasury and the Chancellery of the Prime
Minister in the rank of deputy minister. The Team was an auxiliary body of the Council of Ministers and
its main tasks included: analysing the functioning of the sector, updating the concept for the
development and enhancement of its competitiveness, developing the concept of wider utilisation of
energy from hard coal in order to increase Poland's energy security and preparing recommendations
concerning further actions aimed at improving the functioning of the sector, including by restructuring
thereof. In the course of its operation, the Team located the most important areas that require
undertaking remedial measures. In November 2014, the post of Government Plenipotentiary for
Restructuring of the Hard Coal Mining Sector was established. The ownership supervision over the
mining sector was transferred to the Ministry of Treasury. The duties of the Plenipotentiary included, in
particular, the development and implementation of the concept for the restructuring of the hard coal
mining sector, as well as the initiation, coordination and monitoring of actions under this concept.
Due to the fact that Kompania Węglowa S.A. was in the most difficult situation that required fast and
effective action, a document entitled "Recovery Plan for Kompania Węglowa S.A." was developed,
containing a recommendation for the substantial transformation of this company, including the phasing
out of unprofitable and non-prospective units as well as the restoration of the ability to reduce costs and
165
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
shape the work organisation in mines capable of surviving on the market. One of the actions aimed at
the implementation of the "Recovery Plan for Kompania Węglowa S.A." was the amendment of the Act
of 7th of September 2007 on the Functioning of Hard Coal Mining Sector in the years 2008-2015. The
Act adopted on 22nd of January 2015 (date of entry into force – 4th of February 2015) introduced
mechanisms supporting remedial actions aimed at unprofitable mines.
Box 15 Industry support programme for the Śląskie Voivoideship and Western Małopolska
On 30th of June 2015, the Council of Ministers adopted the document entitled "Silesia 2.0 – Industry support
programme for the Śląskie voivodeship and western Małopolska". The programme's main objective is to further
reinforce the key role of Śląskie and Western Małopolska as the driver of Polish industry by adapting the region's
economy to the challenges faced in relation to the globalisation process. This objective should be achieved using
existing human and infrastructural resources. The programme's main objectives include:
Enhance the competitiveness of the economy of the Śląskie Voivodeship and Western Małopolska
1. A package of solutions for the mining industry (the establishment of Nowa Kompania Węglowa – Węglokoks
Rybnicki Okręg Węglowy spółka z o.o.; it is estimated that in 2017 the company will achieve profit at the level
of PLN 2 billion, with sales exceeding 28 million tonnes of coal per annum);
2. A package of solutions enhancing the global competitiveness of energy-intensive enterprises.
the reduction of burdens placed on energy-intensive companies in relation to the costs of financing
renewable energy sources – approx. PLN 450 million per annum;
the exemption of energy-intensive companies from the excise tax on electricity – PLN 450-600 million.
Investments
1. Investments involving financing from EU funds:
the development of road infrastructure in the Śląskie Voivodeship and Western Małopolska. The
construction of the S1 and S69 expressways (PLN 3.9 billion and PLN 1.55 billion, respectively), the
construction of the A1 Motorway, Pyrzowice-Częstochowa section (PLN 2.5 billion – public funds) and
Częstochowa-Tuszyn section (PLN 4.1 billion in the extra-budgetary formula);
the development of railway infrastructure in the region (total value over PLN 9 billion);
investments under territorial contracts and Regional Operational Programmes for the Śląskie and
Małopolskie Voivodeships;
the intensification of revitalisation processes (total value of the investment that will enable the
implementation of the revitalisation act amounts to PLN 25 billion);
Bytom as the city-area of strategic intervention (ASI) – EUR 100 million.
2. Investments based on financing from national funds:
the establishment of the Local Government Investment Fund (PLN 600 million) by Bank Gospodarstwa
Krajowego (BGK) and Polish Investments for Development (PIR);
the establishment of the Infrastructure Debt and Capital Funds by BGK and PIR S.A. (PLN 4.4 billion);
the establishment of the Polish Enterprises Investment Fund by BGK and PIR (PLN 1.5 billion);
funds supporting entrepreneurship and preferential investment and restructuring loans for enterprises;
financial instruments of the Minister of Treasury and Agencja Rozwoju Przemysłu S.A.;
BGK – instruments supporting the region and enterprises;
Agencja Rozwoju Przemysłu SA – instruments supporting enterprises and a new role of the ARP SA
branch in Katowice;
the investments of state-owned companies in the territory of Śląsk (the commencement of investments
and support for the industrial potential in the amount of PLN 9.5 billion provided by companies with
Treasury shareholding, e.g. Tauron, Huta Łabędy, Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa).
3. Strategic investments:
the design of the installation for the surface coal gasification process – design developed by Grupa Azoty
SA – PLN 1.8-4.2 billion.
4. Support for private sector investments:
support for actions aimed at the development of the Katowice Special Economic Zone;
support for investors provided by the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency.
Low-emission and resource-efficient economy; Modern personnel for modern industry; Integration of functions
performed by cities comprising the Upper Silesian agglomeration
166
9.2.2.
Automotive sector
Over the last decade, Poland has become one of the biggest passenger car, goods vehicle and bus
producers in the region of Central and Eastern Europe as well as a European powerhouse in terms of
the manufacture of motor vehicle components and spare parts for many global motoring brands. The
Polish industry specializes in internal combustion engine production.
Within the period between 2001–2011, despite the substantial decrease in the sales of new passenger
cars on the domestic market, the production of passenger cars and light goods vehicles (with the
allowable total weight of up to 3.5 tonnes) in Poland was developing dynamically. The production was
carried out by four companies: Fiat Auto Poland, General Motors Manufacturing Poland (previously Opel
Polska), Volkswagen Poznań and Fabryka Samochodów Osobowych (FSO). The products of the Polish
automotive industry have become a Polish specialty in terms of exports. About 98% of passenger cars
produced in Poland were earmarked for export to, inter alia, Germany, Italy and France. Various types
of incentives – such as subsidies for scrapping – introduced, inter alia, in the above-mentioned
countries constituted a favourable circumstance for maintaining, and even increasing, production in
passenger car plants in Poland during the period of economic crisis – which was clearly visible in the
years 2009-2010. The manufacturing structure of the Polish automotive sector, based mostly on small
and medium-sized, relatively affordable cars sought by West European clients, had a positive influence
on such state of affairs. In comparison with other EU countries, Polish automotive sector was relatively
untouched by the first wave of the global crisis. Unfortunately, the economic situation on European
markets remained unfavourable, forcing Polish manufacturing plants to significantly cut their production
plans in 2011. The data for 2012-2014 pertaining to manufacturing, particularly with regard to passenger
cars, has confirmed the expectations that this was a difficult period for the Polish automotive sector. In
2014, 578 thousand passenger cars and light goods vehicles (up by 0.6% compared to 2013) and more
than 5.0 thousand buses (up by 21.7% compared to 2013) were produced in Poland, of which only
about 400 thousand were earmarked for the domestic market. The current situation on the domestic bus
market indicates that their producers will still be forced to dynamically penetrate foreign markets.
The automotive sector constitutes a relevant part of Polish economy, both with regard to its share in the
manufacturing and number of persons employed. At the end of 2014, the automotive industry consisted
of 433 entities employing more than 9 individuals (4 entities less than at the end of 2013), including 141
entities employing more than 250 people. The manufacturers of parts and accessories for motor
vehicles, carrying out activities in 310 entities (including 115 entities employing over 250 people),
represented the strongest group. There were 39 entities, including 16 entities employing more than 250
people, classified as motor vehicle producers. More than 167 thousand people were employed in the
automotive industry in Poland at the end of 2014. An increase in employment recorded in the car
producers group (up by 0.9%), parts and accessories producers group (up by 5.0%) and the bodyshell,
trailer and semitrailer producers group (up by 3.9%) contributed to the overall employment growth of
4%. The fact that the statistics in question include enterprises classified in other industries but
manufacturing their products for the automotive sector, such as producers of tires, seats, wire
harnesses and windscreens, makes for an increase in the number of people employed in companies
manufacturing vehicles and their parts to about 190-200 thousand people. Despite the crisis, the
automotive sector continued to generate high total operating revenues, which by the end of 2014
reached the level of about PLN 122 billion and were 1.4% higher compared to 2013. It should be
highlighted that this sector has a share in the total revenues of manufacturing companies amounting to
11.1%. Capital expenditures grew significantly at the end of 2014, reaching the level of PLN 6.0 billion,
which accounted for about 13.2% of the total amount spent on investments in the manufacturing sector.
The net return on sales for the entire sector amounted to 4.1%.
167
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The automotive industry plays a major role in the Polish economy, also as in terms of exports. In 2014,
the value of export of all products of the Polish automotive industry amounted to EUR 18.6 billion, i.e.
1.2% more than in 2013.54 Much like in the previous years, the vast majority of automotive industry
products were exported to EU Member States. In 2014, EU markets accounted for 85% of all exports.
Export to non-EU countries declined to the level of EUR 2.7 billion. Germany continues to be the top
destination for Polish exports in this sector, accounting for 31.7% of all automotive sector exports. The
value of export of automotive parts and accessories kept rising. In 2014, the export of parts and
accessories increased to EUR 7.82 billion, exceeding the previous year’s results by 5.6%. This group of
products accounted for nearly 42.3% of the entire automotive sector exports. The export of passenger
as well as goods/passenger vehicles attained the value of EUR 4.90 billion, i.e. 5,2% less than in 2013.
The share of this group in the total exports within this branch of industry fell to 26.5% in 2014.
The minimum target for the Polish automotive industry is to maintain production at a level from previous
years, i.e. 800-900 thous. cars per annum. Emphasis is also placed on the continuation of the
manufacture of state-of-the-art passenger cars and the implementation of innovative technologies which
may, in the future, provide a qualitative impulse for new, environmentally-friendly concepts for the
development of road transport. Poland must produce for export to foreign markets. Given the slowdown
of downward new car sales tendencies on the EU market (the biggest recipient of cars produced in
Poland), one must also take into account that the total passenger car and light goods vehicle production
in Poland, in 2015, may reach a level of 630-640 thousand cars, i.e. 8-10% more compared to 2014.
Year 2014 was the second year following the slowdown in the decrease of new car sales in Poland. The
number of registered new cars amounted to 373 thousand, i.e. 12.2% more compared to 2013. During
that time, Poland has imported 749 thousand used cars, i.e. 5.7% more compared to 2013. Signals from
dealers and importers indicate a recovery on the Polish car market at the level of approximately 5%
compared to 2014. The low increase in sales in the first quarter of 2015 was influenced by the high level
of sales of passenger cars with light goods vehicle (N1) type approval (with a cargo compartment),
which between January and March 2015 allowed for the purchase of such cars with a 100% VAT
deduction. These cars constituted approximately 20% of all new passenger cars registered during that
time in Poland. Such high level of purchases of cars will certainly have a negative impact on the
registration results in 2015 as a whole.
The consumption of the Polish passenger car market amounts to over 1 million cars per annum,
including 300-400 thousand new cars and 700-800 thousand imported used cars. The main factor
determining the market structure is affordability. The most commonly purchased cars are cheap and
provide appropriate utility. Imported used cars satisfy this condition. Cars below the age of 10 comprised
the most strongly represented group of imported used cars and accounted for 50.8% of all imported
cars; therefore, such cars cannot introduce the latest technologies and an appropriate level of protection
to Polish roads.
9.2.3.
Chemical industry sector (including pharmaceuticals)
The chemical industry is experiencing dynamic growth. The chemical industry forms a resource base for
all other sectors of the economy, with chemical production replacing metal, timber, glass and natural
fibre products. The biggest recipients of products manufactured by the chemical industry are the
machinery, metallurgical, automotive, electrotechnical and electronic as well as construction, stationery,
printing, textiles, clothing and agricultural sectors. The chemical industry is one of the branches
characterised by stable development and ensures a substantial number of jobs for highly qualified
personnel.
54
Source: AutomotiveSuppliers.pl
168
In 2014, there were a total of 1,914 enterprises operating in the chemical industry 55 (compared to 1,890
in the previous year), including 1,584 profitable enterprises. Employment grew from 232.2 thousand
persons in 2013 to nearly 240.5 thousand persons in 2014.
The total revenues of the chemical industry amounted to nearly PLN 147.4 billion in 2014 (compared to
PLN 144.5 billion in 2013). The sector is characterised by a higher rate of return than the average
values in the manufacturing sector, although changes recorded with respect to the rate of return in
individual sections of the chemical industry in 2014 varied. In 2014, the gross rate of return in the
manufacture of chemicals amounted to 6.7% (compared to 7.0% in 2013), in the manufacture of basic
pharmaceutical substances and medicines – 10.5% (compared to 10.6% in 2013), while in the
manufacture of rubber and plastic products it grew from 6.9% to 7.1%. Capital expenditures of the entire
sector increased from PLN 6.7 billion in 2013 to PLN 7.5 billion in 2014. At the same time, debt grew
from PLN 43.6 billion in 2013 to PLN 45.1 billion in 2014.
Domestic production does not cover the actual demand for chemical products. This results in a high
deficit in foreign trade. In 2014, the export of the chemical industry reached EUR 23 billion, while import
amounted to EUR 29.6 billion (compared to EUR 21.9 billion and EUR 27.6 billion, respectively, in
2013). The deficit increased from EUR 5.7 billion in 2013 to over EUR 6.5 billion in 2014.
Chart 46 Rate of return on gross sales for selected branches of the chemical sector
% 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Plastics
Rubber
Drugs
Basic pharmaceutical
substances
Soaps, cosmetics
Paints, varnishes
Pesticides
Chemicals
Manufacturing
0
Source: Economic information System (Insigos) of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of the Central Statistical Office
(GUS) data.
The chemical sector is not homogeneous. It encompasses the manufacture of fertilizers, cosmetics and
pharmaceuticals.
The fertilizer sector is the largest branch of the domestic chemical industry. Mineral fertilizers produced
in Poland are the primary production agents in modern agriculture. The biggest Polish producers of
In accordance with the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD 2007), the chemical industry is classified in the following
sections: 20. Chemicals and chemical products; 21. Basic pharmaceutical substances and medicines, and 22. Rubber and
plastic products. The data applies to the economic entities which employ more than 9 individuals.
55
169
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
mineral fertilizers include: Grupa Azoty (comprised of Zakłady Azotowe w Tarnowie - Mościcach S.A.,
Zakłady Azotowe Kędzierzyn S.A., Zakłady Chemiczne “Police” S.A., Zakłady Azotowe Puławy S.A.,
Gdańskie Zakłady Nawozów Fosforowych Fosfory Sp. z o.o., Azoty-Adipol S.A.) – the second largest
fertilizer concern in Europe and the largest chemical concern in Poland, Anwil S.A., Luvena S.A. and
Z.Ch. Siarkopol Tarnobrzeg sp. z o.o.
Poland is a large exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The trade balance in phosphatic fertilizers is also
positive, but turnover is significantly lower than in the case of nitrogen-based fertilizers.
In turn, the cosmetic sub-sector is one of the fastest growing branches of Polish economy and the 6th
largest market in the European Union. The domestic cosmetics market is also perceived as unique on
the European scale due to the number of global concerns, large and medium manufacturers as well as
small and micro-enterprises operating therein.
In 2014, there were 137 enterprises operating in the cosmetics and household chemistry industry, 114
of which were profitable. Apart from those enterprises there are also laboratories, research and
biotechnology companies, and packaging manufacturers, who focus their investments on such areas as
consumer preference research, improvement of efficiency and quality of offered products as well as
recyclable and environment-friendly packaging. The total revenues of the industry amounted to PLN
14.8 billion in 2013, rising to PLN 15.5 billion in 2014. Employment grew from 21.9 thousand in 2013 to
23.1 thousand people in 2014. The gross rate of return on total activity amounted to 9.1% in 2014. In
2014, the industry spent nearly PLN 651 million on investments.
The pharmaceutical industry plays one of the key roles in the healthcare system in Poland. As a sector
securing basic human needs, it is also of key strategic importance as regards the country’s interests.
The pharmaceutical industry is one of the branches characterised by stable development and ensuring
a substantial number of jobs for highly qualified personnel. It is also one of the Poland’s top spenders on
research and development.
The number of enterprises pursuing business activity in this sector is relatively low compared to other
branches of industry. In 2014, a 100 enterprises employing a total of over 20 thousand people were
operating in this sector. The total revenues of the pharmaceutical industry amounted to over PLN 15.5
billion in 2014. Capital expenditures amounted to PLN 396.4 billion (compared to PLN 363.7 billion in
2013).
The Group for the competitiveness of the pharmaceutical sector was established in 2014. The Group’s
objective include cooperation and providing support for the purpose of reinforcing the position of the
Polish pharmaceutical industry through continuous development and strengthening the position of
pharmaceutical companies in Poland.
The pharmaceutical sector companies are also supported by biotechnological companies operating
therein. Over half of 70 entities operating in this industry were established in the last 5 years, which
shows how just how fast this sector is developing. The dynamic growth of this sector also results from
the systematic development of infrastructure necessary for the operation of this type of enterprises
(incubators, technological parks), qualified personnel and raising awareness of researchers in the field
of patent law, which plays an important role in the area of biotechnology. The entities are primarily
engaged in the manufacture of drugs and provision of diagnostic/medical services. There is a trend
among the companies to change their business model from generic manufacturers to developers of
new, innovative drugs. A challenge in the medium and long-term is to improve the internal capacity to
acquire technology with an appropriate potential for growth in labour and capital productivity.
170
Box 16 Pharmaceutical sector within the framework of the National Smart Specialisation
On 8th of April 2014, the Council of Ministers adopted the Enterprise Development Programme which constitutes
an integral part of the National Smart Specialisation (NSS). The document presents the analytical process of
selecting smart specialisations on a national level (R&D and investment areas) as well as a general concept for
the process of monitoring and updating those specialisations. The 19 smart specialisation defined include a
division: healthy society, which comprises:
 medical engineering technologies, including medical biotechnologies;
 diagnostics and therapy of civilization diseases and personalized medicine;
 manufacture of medicinal products.
In 2014, the plastics industry comprised approximately 1.2 thousand entities and employed 116.4
thousand people. Despite the growth in total operating revenues (PLN 52 billion in 2014), the sector's
rate of return declined and its debt increased. Capital expenditures grew from nearly PLN 2.8 billion in
2013 to PLN 3 billion in 2014. Due to insufficient domestic production capacity, Poland is a large net
importer of plastics.
The Polish manufacture of plastics is continuously developing, although compared to the global industry
its situation is not favourable. Research units with a high level of knowledge and large research
potential are very active in Poland. The demand for plastics in Poland is continuously rising and remains
higher than the production capacity. The volumes of plastics required on the market are delivered
through substantial import. Despite the large, unsaturated market, the possibilities for the creation of
new production capacities are limited. This results from the limited access to petrochemical raw
materials, a base material used in synthesising most plastics.
New technologies and materials from plastics have a positive influence on the life quality and security
as well as on balanced development through the effective utilisation of natural resources. In terms of
volume, the main area in which plastics are applied is packaging, followed by the construction and
engineering, automotive, electrical and electronic industries, agricultural sector as well as medicine and
sports.
The dynamic development of the plastics industry is curbed by the structural factor, i.e. substantial
fragmentation of that industry, particularly evident in the manufacturing sector. Threats to the plastics
industry include: insufficient capital for investments and rapid increase in the costs of energy triggered
by global trends such as a rise in the prices of energy commodities, but also by the EU strategy (the
energy package) aimed at reducing CO2 emissions associated with energy production, which is
unfavourable to energy-intensive sectors of Polish industry, including the plastics sector.
9.2.4.
Iron and steel metallurgy sector
In 2014, the iron and steel metallurgy sector56 comprised 106 entities57, including 24 manufacturers of
metallurgical products (1 more than in 2013) employing more than 9 people. The number of individuals
employed in this sector amounted to over 30 thous. people, including 20.4 thous. people employed in
the manufacture of metallurgical products.
According to the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007: 24.1 Manufacture of crude iron, ferroalloys, cast iron, steel
and metallurgical products; 24.2 Manufacture of steel pipes, lines, structural sections and fasteners; 24.3 Manufacture of
other pre-processed steel products. Pertains to entities employing more than 9 people.
57 Due to limitations in the availability of data, the comparison of data for the years 2014 and 2013 were limited to division
24.1 of the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007. This group significantly dominates in this sector, accounting –
among companies employing more than 9 individuals – for approximately 79% of its revenues and around 68% of all
employed individuals.
56
171
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The total operating revenues of this sector exceeded PLN 30.7 billion, with the manufacturers of
metallurgical products accounting for nearly PLN 24.3 billion (up by 1.4%). The total capital
expenditures of the sector amounted to PLN 750 million, PLN 540 million of which accounted for capital
expenditures on the manufacture of metallurgical products (down by 1.8%). Net revenues from the sales
of export products amounted to nearly PLN 11.9 billion, with the manufacture of metallurgical products
accounting for PLN 9.6 billion (up by 6.7%). The sector comprised 76 entities, including 16 profitable
manufacturers of metallurgical products (1 more than in 2013). The sector’s net financial result was
positive and amounted to nearly PLN 717 million. The manufacturers of metallurgical products achieved
a positive result of PLN 77 million in 2014 (compared to the loss of PLN 468 million in 2013).
In 2014, this sector (excluding micro-enterprises) accounted for 2.8% of total operating revenues of the
entire manufacturing section and 1.6% of all individuals employed in this section. The dominant position
in the sector is held by a dozen-or-so largest enterprises specialising in metallurgy.
According to the Metallurgical Chamber of Industry and Commerce data, in 2014 the production of
crude steel in Poland amounted to 8.6 million tonnes (using 68% of the available production capacity)
and was 8% higher than in 2013. 5.1 million tonnes of converter steel was produced in the integrated
process (up by 15%) and 3.5 million tonnes of steel was produced in the electrical process (down by
2%). In 2014, the share of alloy steel manufacture (5.8%) and stainless steel manufacture (0.03%)
continued to remain low. The manufacture of hot-rolled finished products amounted to 7.5 million tonnes
(up by 1.8% compared to 2013), of which flat products accounted for 2.8 million tonnes (37.4%),
including 2.1 million tonnes of cold-rolled sheets (up by 0.8%) and long products represented 4.7 million
tonnes (62.6%), dominated by bars – 2.1 million tonnes (i.e. up by 5%). Among the cold-finished
products, the manufacture of cold-rolled sheets and strips amounted to 883 thousand tonnes (up by
8%), The manufacture of galvanised sheets and strips amounted to 527 thousand tonnes (up by 12%),
while the manufacture of organic-coated sheets and strips amounted to 273 thousand tonnes (up by
19%). The manufacture of steel pipes and hollow sections totalled 848 thousand tonnes (down by
1.3%), of which cold-formed hollow sections accounted for 518 thousand tonnes (down by 4%).
In 2014, the import of metallurgical products to Poland amounted to 9 million tonnes (up by 13%
compared to the previous year), with imports from the EU rising by 12% (accounting for 74% of all
imports) and the size of imports from outside the EU rising by 17%. In terms of volume, Ukraine
represented the largest share of import (despite the 5% drop), but the highest growth in import from third
countries were observed in Brazil, Moldova and Belarus. Export from Poland amounted to 4.8 million
tonnes (down by 3%), nearly 90% of which was exported to EU countries. As regards the EU, Poland
exported mainly to Germany and the Czech Republic, while taking into consideration export outside the
EU, metallurgical products were most often sold to Russia, Ukraine and Norway.
The deficit in foreign trade in metallurgical steel products amounted to 4.2 million tonnes in 2014, i.e.
EUR 3.4 billion (compared to 3.1 million tonnes and EUR 2.8 billion in the previous year). The structure
of trade did not change and, in the case of imports, was as follows: flat products - 65%, long products 23%, pipes - 7%, ingots and semi-finished products - 4%; the structure of exports, in turn, was as
follows: long products - 48%, flat products - 27%, ingots and semi-finished products - 15%, and pipes 8%.
The apparent finished steel product consumption in Poland (production plus import less export) in 2014
amounted to 12.2 million tonnes (up by 17% compared to 2013), with flat products accounting for 54%
of the above sum (6.6 million tonnes), long products - 37% (4.5 million tonnes), and pipes and coldformed hollow sections - 9% (1.1 million tonnes).
172
The economic and financial data of enterprises and growing consumption of metallurgical steel products
(despite slightly worse trade balance) indicate that the situation in the sector is slightly improving in
2014. This resulted from substantially lower illegal intra-Community trade in certain steel products in
2013, and domestic demand which provided an opportunity for a higher utilisation of domestic
production capacities.
This allows to look to the sector’s immediate future with moderate optimism. However, it is necessary to
remember the still difficult global position of the Polish steel sector in terms of competitiveness in the
context of the EU open market, especially the EU energy, climate and environmental policy.
9.2.5.
Electronics sector
The electronics sector is one of the fastest developing areas of global economy. It stimulates the
technical, technological and organisational progress and, to a large degree, determines the progress of
our civilisation. It stimulates the development of other high potential sectors of the economy. The
electronics sector also plays an important role in the development of the economy’s capacity to meet
the requirements of international and global competition.
In 2014, there were 319 business entities operating in the electronics sector (9 more than in the
previous year), employing a total of 51.4 thousand people (up by over 11%) 58. The total operating
revenues of these entities amounted to PLN 37.1 billion (up by 12.7%), while capital expenditures
totalled PLN 945 million (up by over 55%). Net revenues from the sales of export products amounted to
PLN 20.9 billion (up by over 10%). A total of 252 companies in this sector attained profitability (18 more
than in the previous year), with their net profit exceeding PLN 1.4 billion (up by 8.2%). Other entities in
this sector (the number of which decreased by 9 compared to the previous year) recorded an aggregate
net loss in the amount of almost PLN 242 million (down by 1.16%).
In 2014, the sector’s share in total operating revenues of the entire manufacturing section reached
nearly 3.4% (in the previous year it was almost 3.1%), in net revenues from the sales of export products
- 5.2%, in the number of employees - almost 2.8%, and in total capital expenditure of this section nearly 2.1%.
Among 8 divisions of this section, nearly half is represented by the division comprising the producers of
consumer electronics. An exports specialty of the sector and one of the specialties of the Polish industry
as a whole are the main products of this division - i.e. TV sets; approximately 19.6 million units were
manufactured in 2014 (5% more than in 2013). Poland remains the leader in the manufacture of TV sets
in the European Union.
Almost the entire production is intended for export, mainly to the EU countries. In 2014, the export of TV
sets (heading HS 8528 of the PCN classification) amounted to PLN 16.9 billion (up by 13% compared to
the previous year), accounting for 2.5% of the entire Polish export (compared to nearly 2.3% in 2013).
It is also worth to mention the other Polish export specialty – electrical household appliances, which falls
under the electrical engineering sector rather than the electronics sector. In 2014, 53 entities operated
in the household appliances sector (no change compared to 2013), which employed 25.5 thousand
people. The total operating revenues of these entities amounted to nearly PLN 20.4 billion (up by only
0.4%), while the total capital expenditures amounted to PLN 583.5 million (down by 12.4%). Nearly 3.2
Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007, Section 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products.
Pertains to entities employing more than 9 people.
58
173
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
million refrigerators and freezers (up by over 10%), nearly 6.4 million automatic washing machines (up
by 13%), 1 million vacuum cleaners (up by 3%) and 555 thousand gas cookers (down by 4.5%) were
produced in 2014.
According to the Union of Employers of the Household Appliance Manufacturing Sector CECED Poland,
in 2014 there were over 26.5 million units of household appliances produced in Poland (compared to
over 23 million in 2013), including approx. 20.2 million units of the so-called major appliances (up by
13%). Despite the difficult situation in the EU, the export of household appliances from Poland has been
continuously rising and amounted to PLN 16.7 in 2014 (compared to PLN 15.7 billion in 2013).
The above-mentioned data proves the good condition of both the electronics and household appliances
sector (following a slight decline in 2013). The domestic home electronics and household appliances
market has perspectives for development (including the purchase of additional equipment by
households or its exchange for a more modern version with better parameters and new functions,
including more efficient equipment), while goods produced in Poland remain to be well perceived on
European markets.
Due to the nature of the electronics sector, potential growth opportunities may also present various
threats to its development. The globalisation of economic processes creates an opportunity for Poland –
a country which is still capable of offering attractive manufacturing costs and an equally attractive
geographic location – to remain an important manufacturing centre for products earmarked for EU
markets. At the same time, there is an apparent tendency in Europe to search for locations which offer
even lower production costs and to transfer the manufacture of goods to such locations instead. The
need to take advantage of advanced technologies may also act as a potential development driver,
although in this regard Poland faces the risk related to the insufficient level of investment and R&D
expenditure.
The conditions for the development of this sector are also influenced by global trends in this area,
including miniaturisation and the increase in the scale of chip integration, the dynamic increase in the
complexity and diversity of technologies used in the production of electronic devices as well as the
wide-scale introduction of digital techniques and printed circuits.
9.2.6.
Wood-based sectors
The Polish wood industry plays a significant role in the development of the economy as a whole. The
most important wood-based sectors include: sawmill industry, manufacture of furniture, cellulose-paper
industry, and manufacture of wood-based boards.
The wood industry is characterised by a substantial degree of dispersion and focuses on small and
medium-sized enterprises, with a substantial amount being micro-enterprises (around 30% of all
entities); there are only a few large entities operating in this sector. The share of this industry in the
entire manufacturing section in Poland in 2014 amounted to approximately 9%. At the end of 2014,
there were 1,790 enterprises operating in the wood industry, which is a increase by 40 entities
compared to 2013. Employment in this sector at the end of 2014 was 232 thousand people, up by 6%
compared to the previous year. It is estimated that micro-enterprises employ about 40 thousand people,
which means that the whole wood industry employs about 270 thousand people.
In 2014, the total operating revenues amounted to almost PLN 91 billion (including: paper industry PLN 32.7 billion, furniture industry - PLN 31.6 billion), up by 9.8% compared to 2013. Each year the
wood industry processes on average approx. 37 million cubic metres of round timber purchased from
174
the National Forest Holding (PGL Lasy Państwowe), with a value of more than PLN 7 billion. Therefore,
PLN 1 in wood raw materials generates PLN 13 in the value of wood products.
In 2014, the value of exported products of the wood industry reached about EUR 15 billion. The highest
export volumes were once again recorded in the case of furniture. In 2014, the export of furniture
reached EUR 8 billion, over 80% of which was sold to EU countries (Poland is the 5 th largest exporter of
furniture in the world - following China, Italy, Germany and the USA). The furniture sector generates one
of the highest positive trade balances among manufacturing sections in Poland, i.e. PLN 28 billion in
2014.
Substantial funds in wood-based sectors are allocated to investments, including the development of
production capacity as well as the purchase of fixed assets for the purposes of environmental
protection. Over the years, the capital expenditures of the entire sector increased from PLN 3.4 billion in
2010 to PLN 5.3 billion in 2014. The largest increase in capital expenditure was recorded in the furniture
industry - by 38%.
Compared to other countries, the competitive position of Polish wood-based sectors is relatively strong
– manufacture of furniture and wood-based boards constitutes a substantial share in global production
and trade exchange.
The rapid growth in demand for wood which was experienced in the recent years was mostly the
consequence of the extension of the market for wood raw materials to the EU Member States, i.e. the
demand on the part of foreign enterprises and the emergence of opportunities within the energy sector.
The dynamic growth in demand experienced recently in Poland, alongside with limited capacities in
terms of increase in supply, results in market imbalance in the form of a deficit in wood raw materials.
The import of wood can only be a partial solution to delivery problems faced by wood-based sectors due
to high transportation costs. The supply on the market of wood products is increasing due to the
development of production capacities. The transfer of foreign capital in the form of foreign direct
investments plays a vital role in this process. The manufacture of wood-based boards, cellulose and
paper as well as of furniture continues to generate the greatest amount of interest among investors.
Box 17 Rules governing the sales of timber
In Poland, timber is sold by the National Forest Holding (PGL Lasy Państwowe). Specific terms and conditions of
sales are specified annually in a regulation issued by the Director General for State Forests (DGLP). The new
rules, introduced in 2013, provide for 70% of timber to be sold by tender to customers who can demonstrate the
so-called „purchasing history” as well as to companies implementing new investments, with the remaining 30%
being sold to all the interested parties through publicly available online auctions. The entire timber volume for
sale in 2014 amounted to 38 million cubic metres. As a result, the situation on the wood market has improved.
However, the system continues to be criticised by customers who purchase timber due to the insufficient timber
volume for sale and excessively high prices.
The perspectives for the development of the Polish wood market in the upcoming years are relatively
good. In general, it can be expected that the demand for most wood materials and finished wood
products will systematically increase.
The varied nature of wood industry output allows for a substantial degree of flexibility, reflecting the
current market conditions. Basing production on natural, renewable resources, the possibility of
recycling and reuse of waste timber and the environmentally-friendly nature of the sector are features
which contribute towards the ecological nature of products manufactured by the timber industry, which
175
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
has a positive effect on its significance in the context of the implementation of the strategy for
continuous and sustainable development.
Among wood-based sectors there are also such that are particularly harmful to the environment, but
modernise their production processes in order to increase the cost efficiency of machinery and
equipment and to reduce their detrimental environmental impact. Manufacturers of wood-based boards
deserve special attention as in the majority of plants they implemented solutions aimed at reducing
energy consumption. The environmental aspect is one of the main determining factors of investment
activities performed with regard to cellulose and paper manufacture due to the fact that this particular
branch of industry features a relatively high level of consumption of energy, resources and water as well
as substantial CO2 emissions. In a long-term perspective, the results of actions performed with regard to
the reduction of the factors enumerated in the preceding sentence shall exert a positive influence upon
the development of this industry. The growing pressure in terms of environmental protection and the
challenges associated therewith shall, to an increasingly large extent, determine the pace and directions
for the development of the timber sector.
Sectors exhibiting the highest export potential include the manufacture of furniture and manufacture of
wood-based boards. However, it is worth noting that despite the long-standing tradition and high quality
of products, the Polish furniture brand on foreign markets is still not sufficiently recognised. That is why
the Ministry of Economy covered this industry by a systemic project entitled “Promotion of Polish
economy on international markets” implemented under Sub-measure 6.5.1 of IE OP.
176
10.
POLAND’S ENERGY SECURITY
10.1. Situation on the fuels and energy market
10.1.1.
Security of the national energy sector
The key issue – from the point of view of functioning and development of economy – is to ensure energy
security, which in the case of electric power means to ensure its uninterrupted supply in quantities
required by its recipients.
Nowadays, the Polish energy sector is facing serious challenges related to the necessity of rebuilding its
power generation capacity, modernising it and adjusting it to stricter environmental requirements set
forth in the EU legislation. In this context, it is particularly important to meet EU obligations in the scope
of the share of RES in the final energy consumption, as well as to implement the Directive 2010/75/EU
of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 th of November 2010 on industrial emissions (OJEU
L 334 of 17th of December 2010, p. 17) – the so-called Industrial Emissions Directive which will
introduce significantly stricter standards of SO2, NOx and dust emissions from combustion plants.
By 2030 power units with a total capacity of more than 12.2 GW will have been shut down, most of
which (9.8 GW) will be hard-coal-fired units. That is why measures to limit a possibility of temporary
power shortages in Poland should be taken in order to increase electricity supply security. These are:
− creating conditions for investments in new power generation capacities,
− ensuring availability of the so-called cold operating reserve, i.e. extending the life of these
power units which, in other circumstances, would be decommissioned; it is particularly
important when it is expected that in the case of a coincidence of a number of extreme and
unfavourable circumstances there may be temporary shortages of available power surpluses;
− using the reduction of demand for power on the part of recipients during peak demand periods,
which contributes to savings and makes it possible to avoid the construction of new power units
operating only during peaks of demand and, as a consequence, generating only expensive
power;
− allowing recipients to generate power for their own needs (the so-called prosumers);
− increasing the import capacities by building new connections and removing limitations on the
existing cross-border connections.
Currently, there are systemic investments carried out in Poland with a total capacity of more than 5,210
MW. The major projects include the following power plants: Stalowa Wola (TAURON Polska Energia
S.A.) – 400 MW, Włocławek (PKN ORLEN S.A.) – 463 MW, Kozienice (ENEA S.A.) – 1,000 MW, Opole
(PGE S.A.) – 2 x 900 MW, Turów (PGE S.A.) – 450 MW, Jaworzno (TAURON Polska Energia S.A.) –
910 MW.
Moreover, smaller conventional power plants (including 6 power plants with a capacity over 50 MW
each) totalling 700 MW are being constructed. In addition, further investment projects with a total
capacity of 13,600 MW are being designed. What is more, it is expected that two power units with a
capacity of 3,000 MW each will be constructed under the Polish Nuclear Power Programme. Major
177
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
investments in transmission network are located in northern, north-eastern, and western Poland, and
mainly involve connection and introduction of capacities from new power plants, including conventional
power plants and RES.
Meanwhile, the development of cross-border connections is aimed at increasing cross-border
transmission capacities. A 400 kV connection between Poland and Lithuania is under construction – it is
expected that the ongoing Phase I of the investment will have been finished in December 2015 and that
it will allow the exchange at the level of 500 MW between the countries. At the same time, the capacity
of the connections between Poland and Germany is being increased by installing phase shifting
transformers (PST) on two transmission lines: Krajnik-Vierraden and Mikułowa-Hagenverder on
Vierraden and Mikułowa stations, respectively, and increasing the operating voltage of the first line to
400 kV (from 220 kV). The PST in Mikułowa is expected to be ready in 2015, while the PST in Vierraden
is scheduled for 2017. As soon as both PST are installed, the power on the connections between
Poland and Germany will increase by 500 MW in the case of import and 1500 MW in the case of export.
10.1.2.
Situation in the energy sector in 2014
In 2014, the basic indicators which characterise the energy sector were as follows:
1. Total installed capacity as at the end of the year (MW)
39,351.9
including power plants:
- commercial (including RES)
37,400.6
- industrial
1,951.3
2. Total maximum capacity as at the end of the year (MW)
38,771.9
36,942.3
- industrial
1,829.6
3. Total electricity generation (GWh)
159,086.4
151,134.2
- industrial
7,952.2
4. Supply to end users (GWh)
123,849.1
including recipients:
- high voltage (HV)
25,043.7
- medium voltage (MV)
45,264.6
- low voltage (LV)
53,540.8
- including households and small farms
29,021.0
The export of electricity in 2014 amounted to 11,342 GWh, while import totalled 13,509 GWh.
At the end of 2014, the total length of power lines amounted to 831.7 thousand km.
The lengths for particular voltage levels amounted to, respectively:
High voltage (HV) in total
46.8
including:
- extra-high voltage (750-220) kV
13.7
- high voltage 110 kV
33.1
Medium voltage (MV) in total
310.0
Low voltage (LV) in total
474.9
Mains Transformer Capacity
152,849
178
thous. km
thous. km
thous. km
thous. km
thous. km
MVA
10.1.3.
Renewable energy sources (RES)
Objectives of the development of renewable energy sources have been set out in the following
documents: The Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 and The National Renewable Energy Action Plan
Their implementation as well as the coordination of related actions taken by bodies of governmental
administration ensuring coherence and effectiveness are facilitated by the Act of 20th of February 2015
on renewable energy sources (the RES Act, Polish Journal of Laws item 478). The next step will be the
implementation of the scheme of optimised support mechanisms for producers of electricity from RES,
including in particular distributed generation based on local RES resources.
Actions aimed at the cost optimisation of the support system will be carried out in two directions. Firstly,
the mechanism of certificates of origin will be modified in a way enabling the reduction of the costs of
support offered to existing electricity producers, without interfering in the rights they have acquired. In
the case of existing RES installations, the optimisation will consist in reducing the support for the socalled multi-fuel plants and large hydroelectric power stations (>5MW), “freezing” the substitution fee
and limiting the support period (up to 15 years). Moreover, existing RES producers will be offered an
opportunity to switch to the new support mechanism having the form of a fixed price determined by
auction. The change of the support system will involve lower risk related to the participation in the
system of certificates of origin in return for lower, but fixed price valid until the end of a 15-year support
period.
According to the RES Act, from 1st of January 2016 onwards the construction of new RESs will be
promoted by, among others, a system of fixed guaranteed prices valid for 15 years, established as part
of an auction mechanism. Support for the producers of electricity from renewable energy sources in
RES installations with installed capacity of above 0.5 MW will be provided in the form of a premium to
cover the difference between the cost of generating electricity and market energy prices in a competitive
market. The level of such support will be determined by auction individually for each RES installation.
The auction support distribution system aims at achieving the expected level of the development of the
renewable energy sector with minimum costs on the side of energy recipients.
Electricity generated by electricity producers in RES installations with an installed capacity of up to 0.5
MW will be subject to the obligation to purchase of so-called obliged sellers.
In order to maintain proportionality between the development of large and small installations, there are
separate auctions planned for facilities with installed capacity up to 1 MW and for facilities with installed
capacity exceeding 1 MW. It is assumed that at least 1/4 of the electricity should be generated in a RES
installation of a total installed electrical capacity of up to 1 MW, which will ensure local use of available
resources.
179
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Chart 47 RES installed capacity in the years 2006-2015
MW
7,000
6,155
6,029
6,000
5,511
5,000
4,416
4,000
3,082
3,000
2,000
2,556
1,362
1,524
1,678
1,993
1,067
825
712
1,000
123
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
81
119
2011
2012
2013
2014
I q 2015
2011
2012
Installed power
Difference on NAP
NAP – National Action Plan
Source: Energy Regulatory Office (URE).
Table 64 Production of electricity from RES in the years 2005-2014
2005
2006
biogas power plants
111.3
160.1
biomass power
plants
163.6
188.1
solar power plants
wind power plants
135.5
256.1
hydropower plants
2,201.1 2,042.3
multifuel burning
1,236.3 1,644.6
Production of
3,847.7 4,291.2
electricity from
RES (MWh)
Difference with the
NAPs (MWh)
.
.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
2014
195.2
251.6
319.2
398.4
451.1
565.4
689.7
770.4
234.8
521.6
2,352.1
2,125.6
402.1
836.8
2,152.2
2,963.3
246.3
1,077.3
2,375.1
4,660.8
313.6
1,664.3
2,919.9
5,592.5
761.0
0.2
3,204.5
2,331.4
6,388.8
2,290.3
1.1
4,746.6
2,036.9
7,238.6
3,995.6
1.5
6,003.8
2,439.1
3,936.8
4,427.8
7,677.2
2,179.8
4,736.5
5,429.3
6,606.0
8,678.7
10,888.8
13,137.0
16,878.9
17,066.5
19,798.3
.
.
.
271
459
2,034
588.5
1,460
Table 65 Degree of implementation of obligations for the period until 2020 imposed under the National
Action Plan (in percentages)
Source
2010
Plan
(NAP)
Execution
Renewable energy in
12.29
heating and cooling
Renewable energy in
7.53
electric power
Renewable energy in
5.84
transportation
Renewable energy in
the final gross energy
9.58
consumption
2011
Plan
(NAP)
Execution
2012
Plan
(NAP)
Execution
2013
Plan
(NAP)
Execution
11.91
12.54
13.07
12.78
13.31
13.05
13.89
6.67
8.85
8.16
10.19
10.68
11.13
10.73
5.94
6.56
6.51
7.27
6.09
7.79
6.03
9.39
10.16
10.28
10.74
10.89
11.21
11.25
180
An important factor for the increasing share of renewable energy sources in the domestic fuel and
energy balance is the dynamic increase in the usage of biocomponents in the transportation sector. The
actual evolution of the market is related to Poland’s membership in the European Union and the
necessity of meeting obligations pertaining to the use of biofuels in the transportation sector set forth in
Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 rd of April 2009 on the
promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing
Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC (Official Journal of the EU L 140 of 5th of June 2009, p. 16, as
amended). The provisions of Directive 2009/28/EC were transposed into national law by the Act of 25
August 2006 on biocomponents and liquid biofuels (consolidated text Polish Journal of Laws of 2015,
item 775). Furthermore, there were works conducted in order to implement in the national legal order
EU regulations specifying the share of renewable fuels in transport and introducing the sustainable
development criteria since 2013 and completed in 2015. At that time, the Act of 21 st of March 2014
amending the act on biocomponents and liquid biofuels and certain other acts (Polish Journal of Laws,
item 457, as amended) which entered into force on 9 th of May 2014 and the Act of 15th of January 2015
amending the act on biocomponents and liquid biofuels and certain other acts (Polish Journal of Laws,
item 151) were adopted.
Changes in applicable regulations made by means of the above mentioned acts concern in particular
the issues resulting from the goal set in the 2009/28/EC Directive regarding the 10% share of renewable
energy in transportation in 2020 (to the extent pertaining to the implementation of the goal which
according to the provisions of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan passed by the Council of
Ministers on 7th of December 2010 will be performed by means of biocomponents and liquid biofuels
used in transportation) as well as the regulations related to the introduction of the sustainable
development criteria applying to biocomponents and liquid fuels.
The fulfilment of the aforesaid criteria which concern, inter alia, the source of raw material for the
production of biocomponents and acceptable levels of greenhouse gas emission reductions for
biocomponents as well as verification thereof are the conditions for their inclusion as part of the
implementation of the National Indicative Target (i.e. the minimum share of biocomponents and other
renewable fuels consumed in all types of transport means in the total amount of liquid fuels and liquid
biofuels consumed by road and railway transport over a calendar year, calculated in terms of calorific
value) and for the provision of financial support for production of biocomponents and their use in liquid
fuels and liquid biofuels. The changes that have been introduced, will contribute to more efficient
protection of the domestic and intra-community market against an influx of biocomponents (including
those contained in liquid biofuels and fuels) from the countries in the case of which there is a potential
risk that the biocomponents and liquid biofuels imported from these countries do not meet the
sustainable development criteria.
Furthermore, the Act of 11th of July 2014 amending the act on fuel quality monitoring and control system
and certain other acts (Polish Journal of Laws, item 1088) and the Regulation of 3rd of November 2014
amending the regulation on quality requirements for liquid fuels (Polish Journal of Laws, item 1532)
made it possible to increase the allowed volume of biocomponents in petrol from 5% to 10%,
introducing quality requirements for the so-called “E10” fuel.
According to the Energy Regulatory Office, the share of biocomponents and other renewable fuels in
the total amount of liquid fuels and liquid biofuels consumed in transportation over a calendar year in
2014 reached the level of 6.20% (in terms of energy value). 3,604.7 thousand tonnes of gasoline,
181
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
10,604.3 thousand tonnes of Diesel oil, 246.2 thousand tonnes of bioethanol, and 612.08 thousand
tonnes of methyl esters of fatty acids were brought to the market59.
10.1.4.
Energy efficiency in the economy
The total primary energy consumption in the years 2003-2013 increased from approx. 91 Mtoe to nearly
98 Mtoe (0.7% per annum). A decrease in energy consumption occurred twice, in 2009 and in the years
2012-2013. As far as the final energy consumption is concerned, in the period 2002-2012 the annual
average increase amounted to 1.4%. In absolute terms, this represents an increase from 54 to over 62
Mtoe. In this case, the decrease in consumption was recorded in 2009 and in the period 2011-2013. In
the case of final energy consumption with climatic adjustment, i.e. taking into account diverse weather
conditions, the energy consumption growth rate in the period 2004-2013 amounted to 1.4%. Energy
consumption with climatic adjustment means the theoretical value of consumption for a given year if the
weather conditions were as described by long-term average of degree days. In 2013, the final
consumption calculated in this way amounted to 63 Mtoe.
Chart 48 Primary energy and final energy consumption
120
Mtoe
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Final energy consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Final energy consumption with climatic correction
Source: Energy efficiency in the years 2003-2013, Central Statistical Office (GUS), Warsaw, 2015.
As far as the structure of energy consumption by sectors is concerned, there was a strong increase in
the share of transport (from 19% to 25%) and the service sector (with consumption accounting for 13%
of the total consumption). A decrease in total consumption was recorded in industry, households, and
agriculture. Households, however, with the share of 33%, still remain the largest consumer. The growing
importance of transport is associated with the increasing role of both freight transport and passenger
transport - in private cars.
Renewable Energy Department of the Ministry of Economy based on data contained in the Summary quarterly reports of
the President of the Energy Regulatory Office on the biocomponents, liquid fuels and liquid biofuels market.
59
182
Chart 49 Final energy consumption in Poland by sectors
% 35
2003
2013
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Industry
Transport
Households
Agriculture
Services
Household energy consumption
In 2013 the share of energy consumption in households in the final energy consumption amounted to
33%.
Table 66 Structure of household energy consumption according to types of usage (%)
Specification
1993
2002
2009
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Central heating
73.1
71.3
70.2
Water heating
14.9
15.0
14.4
Cooking
7.1
7.1
8.2
Lighting
1.6
2.3
1.8
Electrical equipment
3.3
4.3
5.4
2012
100.0
68.8
14.8
8.3
1.5
6.6
The declining share of energy usage for the purposes of heating is related to the introduction of modern
gas and electric heating devices as well as the consequences of thermo-modernisation and more
restrictive construction regulations. However, better equipment of households with electrical devices as
well as changes in user behaviours (e.g. in the intensity of use of such devices as washing machines,
dishwashers, TV sets, computers) contributed to the doubling of the share of energy consumption by
electrical equipment between 1993 and 2012.
Industrial energy consumption
Final energy consumption in industry in the 2003-2013 period showed irregular fluctuations. The most
intense energy consumption occurred in 2007 and amounted to 16 Mtoe; subsequently, following a fall
in consumption to the level of less than 14 Mtoe in 2009, it started to increase once again, reaching 15
Mtoe in 2011. In 2012, energy consumption slightly decreased, while it increased once more in 2013.
Once we break the final energy consumption data down by types of energy carriers, a decrease in the
use of coal and liquid fuels and an increase in the use of natural gas, electricity and other carriers
becomes noticeable. The heat consumption remained at the same level.
Energy-intensive metallurgical, chemical, and mineral industries use approximately 55% of the total
amount of energy (60% in 2003). The greatest decrease in the share of energy consumption structure
compared to 2003 was observed in the smelting industry – down by almost 6 p.p.; the share of the food,
183
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
textiles, chemical and machinery industries in the energy consumption structure also decreased. The
shares of the timber, stationery, mineral, transport, and other industries in the energy consumption
structure have increased.
The greatest improvement dynamics with regard to energy efficiency was observed in machinery
industry, as well as the textiles and means of transport industries. The slowest growth was registered in
the timber, stationery and other industries.
The changing share of specific manufacturing sectors in the final energy consumption and value added
in the section, i.e. its changing structure, affects the level of energy consumption in the manufacturing.
In the 2004-2009 period, the rate of improvement of energy intensity of the manufacturing industry was
high and amounted, on average, to 9.9% per annum. The impact of structural changes was favourable
and contributed to a slight decline in the energy intensity by 0.7% per annum. The situation changed in
the 2010-2013 period – the energy intensity at constant structure decreased at a rate of 3.4% per
annum, while structural changes reduced the energy intensity of the manufacturing industry by 2.3% per
annum. In total, energy intensity decreased by 5.6% per annum.
Chart 50 Final industrial energy consumption by energy carriers
18
16
14
12
Others
Heat
10
Electricity
Coal
8
Natural gas
6
Liquid fuels
4
2
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Energy consumption in transport
In Poland, nearly 94% of energy consumed in transport is used in road transport and approx. 2% in
railway transport. Furthermore, over 3% is consumed by air transport; inland and coastal navigation
consumes negligible amounts of energy.
In the 2004-2013 period, fuel consumption in the road transport sector increased by 53% (an annual
average growth rate of 4.7%), while the value of this indicator decreased visibly (by 35%, on average
4.2% per annum) in the railway transport sector. Overall, the average annual growth rate of fuel
consumption in the transport sector (excluding the air transport sector) amounted to 4.3% in the 20042013 period.
184
Energy consumption in the services sector
The services sector is characterised by the highest energy efficiency. Energy intensity of value added60
in the services sector fluctuated slightly in the 2003-2013 period. In 2013, the energy intensity fell below
0.05 kgoe/EUR. The year average increase amounted to 1.2%. In the 2004-2013 period, electricity
intensity of value added increased by 0.3% per annum on average.
Chart 51 Changes in energy intensity (left axis) and electricity intensity (right axis) of value added in the
service sector
Mteo 120
100
80
60
40
20
Final energy consumption
Final energy consumption with climatic correction
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10.1.5.
European greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme
2013 marked the next stage in the functioning of the ETS system in the EU, when free allocation of
allowances is replaced by auctioning.
Currently, the key issues for the Polish energy sector in the context of implementation of the Climate
and Energy Package are related to the implementation of the consolidated Directive 2003/87/EC of the
European Parliament and of the Council of 13th of October 2003 establishing a scheme of greenhouse
gas emission allowance trading within the Community (the so-called ETS Directive), which regulates the
functioning of the system in the 2013–2020 period, i.e. in the 3rd period of its functioning.
On 14th of August 2012, the Council of Ministers agreed upon the guidelines for the draft act on the
greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system. According to these guidelines, all proceeds from
auction sales of greenhouse gas emission allowances shall constitute state budget revenue. The
requirement imposed by the Directive 2003/87/EC on the EU emissions trading system (ETS) which
provides that at least 50% of the proceeds from auction sales of emission allowances or the financial
equivalent thereof are to be applied for purposes related to climatic policy shall be implemented within
the framework of the current national expenditure on environmental protection. On 12th of June 2015 the
Polish Sejm (the Lower House of the Polish Parliament) passed the Act on greenhouse gas emission
allowance trading scheme.
When calculating this indicator, energy consumption by the transport sector is not taken into account, with value added of
the transport sector being used instead. A similar procedure is also applied with respect to the electricity intensity of value
added.
60
185
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
As a result of changes in the European emission allowance trading scheme introduced by Directive
2009/29/EC of 23rd of April 2009 amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the
greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the Community, auctioning of emission
allowances will constitute the standard means of allocating emission allowances in the 2013–2020
period. It is therefore necessary to establish an efficient auction system based on the rules presented in
Commission Regulation on the timing, administration and other aspects of auctioning of greenhouse
gas emission allowances pursuant to Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the
Council establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowances trading in the Community. The
aforementioned document sets the rules for organisation of auctions and functioning of the primary
market as a whole (protecting it against market abuses, monitoring of its functioning, etc.) as well as
defines auction attendees along with their laws and requirements towards them. The regulation
provided for two methods of holding auctions: Member States may sell their emission allowances via a
platform organised by the European Commission in cooperation with interested parties or states may
choose their own auction platforms to sell allowances.
On 15th of February 2011, the Council of Ministers decided that Poland shall perform the sale of
emission allowances through the national auction platform. Until the target is selected, Poland will sell
allowances via EEX in Leipzig. According to the auction schedule available on the EEX website, Poland
intends to sell a total of 17.125 million allowances in 2015. In 2015, the first auction of Polish emission
allowances as part of the EU ETS took place on 28th of January. 2.854 million allowances (EUA) were
sold for EUR 19.3 million. The unit price amounted to EUR 6.76. A similar number of allowances were
offered on subsequent auctions (on 25th of March 2015 and 20th of May 2015). Revenue from the sale of
allowances amounted to EUR 19.3 million and EUR 21 million, respectively.
Box 18 The issue of free emission allowances for electricity producers
As a rule, the ETS directive provides that no free emission allowances shall be granted to electricity producers.
However, having regard to the fact that such an approach would place those countries in which energy
generation to a large extent remains dependent on the most emission-intensive fuels, i.e. on hard and brown
coal, in a difficult position and could, as a result, lead to a significant increase in electricity prices, the directive
also provides for a temporary waiver of the duty of electricity producers to purchase 100% of the required
emission allowances.
According to Article 10c of the ETS directive, free emission allowances for the production of electricity may be
granted to installations for electricity production which were operational as of 31 st of December 2008 or to
installations for electricity production with regard to which the investment process was physically initiated before
that date, provided that one of the following conditions is met: the first and the second condition are related to
the unsatisfactory degree of integration of the national grid with the grid operated by the Union for the
Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE, from 1st of June 2009 replaced by the European Network of
Transmission System Operators for Electricity – ENTSO-E), while the third condition introduces a 30% threshold
for dependence on a single type of fossil fuel and a level of GDP per capita below 50% of the EU average
(Poland fulfils the third condition).
On 29th of March 2011, the European Commission published its decision on the methodology to transitionally
allocate free emission allowances to installations in respect of electricity production pursuant to Article 10c(3) of
Directive 2003/87/EC (K(2011) 1983) as well as the communication of 31st of March 2011, entitled Guidance
document on the optional application of Article 10c of Directive 2003/87/EC (2011/C 99/03). The Commission
decision contains a detailed description of the method for the calculation of the quantity of free allowances for
power generating facilities, allowing the Member States to decide whether the allocation of free allowances shall
be made on the basis of historical data or on the basis of a fixed indicator.
Art. 10c of the amended ETS directive introduces an option to allocate free greenhouse gas emission certificates
for the purposes of electricity generation (the so-called energy sector derogations) in the years 2013-2020 on a
decreasing basis – from 70% to 0 in 2020.
In order to take advantage of the available allowances for the energy sector, Poland prepared and submitted to
186
the European Commission on 30th of September 2011 a derogation application containing, inter alia, the National
Investment Plan with planned investments amounting to approx. EUR 45 billion.
On 13th of July 2012, the European Commission issued a decision on the temporary allocation of free emission
allowances for the purposes of modernisation of the power generation process. The maximum total number of
allowances earmarked for allocation to installations in accordance with art. 10c in years 2013-2019 amounts to
404.6 million EUA (EU emission allowances).
According to the Commission’s decision of 22nd of January 2014 (C(2013) 6648, the assistance provided via the
system of transitional allocation of free greenhouse gas emission allowances for the energy sector was
considered to be compliant with the internal market, in accordance with Article 107(3)(c) of TFEU.
The Regulation of the Council of Ministers of 8th of April 2014 on the list on power installations covered by the
greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme during the settlement period starting from January 2013
contains the number of emission allowances they have been awarded. The number of emission allowances
awarded to power installation available for 2013 amounted to nearly 66 million EUA (the number of allowances
was adjusted in accordance with documented investment expenditure incurred from 25 th of June 2009 to 30th of
June 2013).
According to Article 10a of the ETS Directive, the European Commission has adopted executive
provisions – harmonised within the entire European Union – pertaining to the allocation of free
greenhouse gas emission allowances for sectors which form part of the EU ETS. With respect to the
energy sector, the decision of the European Commission provides for a transitional period for heating
industry as regards the provision of heat to private recipients (i.e. households). Calculations of
allowances with regard to heat are based on historic emission data from the years 2005-2008, on the
assumption that within the 2013-2020 period the historic emission values shall be gradually decreased
by 10 p.p. per annum (reduction path from the level of 100% in 2013 to the level set by the heat
generation benchmark in 2020).
The Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 places an emphasis on the use of coal for the purposes of
ensuring the energy security of the country. The use of coal – which is a domestically available resource
– makes Poland of the most stable EU countries in terms of energy security.
At the same time, however, the substantial share of coal in energy production in our country results in a
substantial degree of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, which, in the light of, inter
alia, the climate and energy package, entails the need to invest in low-emissions energy production
technologies such as clean coal technologies. One of the most promising technologies which, according
to estimates, presents the greatest potential for the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, is the carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technology.
It needs to be emphasized that the CCS technology is still in early stages of development and solutions
need to be worked out which will reduce the substantial costs thereof and allow the technology to
progress from small, experimental facilities to application on an industrial scale. Another problem
consists in the lack of sufficient experience in injecting CO2 to storage locations, e.g. in saline
formations or depleted oil or natural gas reservoirs, or below the seabed. In addition, there is no
infrastructure for CO2 transport or neutralisation. However, it is impossible to carry out a reliable
assessment of the CCS technology without conducting prior commercial-scale tests. To this end, the
European Commission plans to launch a Demonstration Programme and build a specific number of
CCS facilities in the EU. The programme concerned provides for the opening from 2015 of a specific
number of full-scale power plants equipped with a process line ranging from carbon dioxide capture,
through transport, to storage. According to the Commission’s estimates, the Demonstration Programme
will be conducted in the years 2015-2020. Only after its results are collected and examined will it be
possible to assess the actual potential of CCS technologies.
187
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Due to high investment and operating costs connected with the application of the CCS technology,
entities interested in this technology require support both at the EU and national level. The European
Commission proposed to allocate 300 million free allowances from the reserve to new entrants (the socalled New Entrance Reserve – NER 300) for projects related to CCS and innovative RES. The Ministry
of Economy’s proposal with regard to the first round of the NER 300 competition in the CCS category
submitted in 2011 was the project concerning the Bełchatów power plant. Unfortunately, as co-financing
from domestic funds was not confirmed, the projects submitted were not awarded co-financing from
NER 300 in the first round. In the second round of the competition, the British White Rose project was
evaluated positively.
In 2013, within the framework of the research and development project entitled “Advanced energy
sources” financed by the National Centre for Research and Development as well as by interested
economic operators, two pilot carbon capture installations were built for the purposes of testing various
technological solutions pertaining to capturing carbon dioxide from power plant flue gases. Additionally,
works are under-way on other clean coal technologies, such as burning coal in a CO 2 enriched
atmosphere, adaptation of modern high-efficiency coal-fired units to CCS, and underground coal
gasification.
10.1.6.
Nuclear Power
One of the priorities of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 (EPP2030) adopted by the Council of
Ministers in 2009 is diversification of energy sources through introduction of nuclear power. The
schedule of activities for the years 2009-2012 annexed to the aforementioned document specified
activities pertaining to nuclear power production. The parallel investor (PGE Polska Grupa
Energetyczna S.A.) began preparations for launching the investment process.
On 28th of January 2014, the Council of Ministers adopted the Polish nuclear power programme. Major
activities conducted in the nuclear power sector in 2014 and in the first half of 2015 included:
 informative activities addressed to Polish industry interested in engaging in nuclear power
generation (participation and presentation of nuclear power at industry forums, launching a tab
on the www.mg.gov.pl websites presenting nuclear power issues to the Polish industry,
organisation of workshops attended by Polish and British nuclear power industry
representatives, organisation of an economic mission to Finland in which representatives of
Polish industry representatives, commissioning a specialist analysis of Polish industry’s
opportunities to cooperate with the world’s nuclear industry);
 development of the draft National Action Plan for Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel
and public consultations carried out with regard thereto;
 implementation of the Council Directive 2011/70/Euroatom establishing a Community
framework for the responsible and safe management of spent fuel and radioactive waste into
Polish law (Act of 4th of April 2014 amending the Act – Nuclear Law and certain other acts);
 performance of the strategic environmental assessment for the draft National Action Plan for
Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel;
 continuation of activities related to the determination of a new location of low- and intermediatelevel radioactive waste repository;
 start of preparations for the construction of a deep high-level radioactive waste and spent
nuclear fuel repository;
 start of preparations for the decommissioning of the operating National Radioactive Waste
Repository in Różan.
188
Moreover, on 15th of April 2015 PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA and KGHM Polska Miedź S.A.,
TAURON Polska Energia S.A. and ENEA S.A. entered into an agreement on the purchase of shares in
PGE EJ 1 sp. z o.o, a special purpose vehicle which is responsible for the preparation and
implementation of the investment consisting in the construction and operation of the first Polish nuclear
power plant with a capacity of approx. 3,000 MWe. Under the agreement, Enea, KGHM and Tauron
acquired 10% of shares in PGE EJ 1 each (a total of 30% of shares) from PGE. The total value of the
transaction amounted to PLN 48 million.
In December 2014, PGE EJ1 withdrew from the agreement with the WorleyParsons consortium
regarding location survey. The Management Board announced that the work would be continued by the
PGE group itself.
10.1.7.
Security of the oil sector
Poland’s security is based on stable sources of crude oil and the development of oil companies,
ensuring the continuity of fuel supply and the creation of crude oil and fuel reserves. Due to Poland’s
geographic location and its transmission infrastructure, Russia still remains its primary supplier of crude
oil (95.32%). Supplies of crude oil from this direction are delivered through the “Przyjaźń” (“Friendship”)
pipeline, owned and operated by Przedsiębiorstwo Eksploatacji Rurociągów Naftowych Przyjaźń S.A., a
company owned by the State Treasury. Capacity of the pipeline along its section between the border
with Belarus and the city of Płock amounts to 50 million tonnes of crude oil per year. As part of the
strategy of PERN “Przyjaźń” S.A. for the years 2010-2015, the completion of the third line of the pipeline
has been foreseen. In respect of finished products, the logistic infrastructure for fuels consists of e.g.
fuel depots and fuel terminals, fuel pipelines, rail transport and road transport.
The import of crude oil in 2014 amounted to 23.715 million tonnes. In 2014, crude oil consumption (the
amount of crude oil processed in refineries) amounted to 23.825 million tonnes, including 14.278 million
tonnes in the PKN ORLEN S.A. refinery in Płock and 9.547 million tonnes in Grupa LOTOS S.A. refinery
in Gdańsk.
Considering the consumption of products of crude oil refining in Poland, one can assume that present
capacities of Polish refineries are sufficient to meet the demand for petrol, light and heavy heating oil,
and more than 97% of the demand for Diesel fuels (since 2011 a decline of the demand for Diesel fuel
has been observed, which, in the context of growing manufacturing capacities, means that the domestic
demand can be met to a great extent by domestic production).
Alternative infrastructure for crude oil supplies is provided by the oil terminal in Gdańsk owned by PPPP
“Naftoport” Sp. z o.o. Its throughput capacity amounts to 40 million tonnes of crude oil and fuels per
year, which fully secures the domestic demand for this raw material by means of supplies delivered by
sea. On 8th of April 2013, PERN “Przyjaźń” S.A. signed the agreement on the construction of a fuel
depot for the purposes of storage, composing, blending and handling of crude oil, petroleum products
and chemicals with a total capacity of 700 thousand cubic meters, including 400 thousand cubic meters
for crude oil and 300 thousand cubic meters for other products. During the first stage the section
dedicated to the storage of crude oil will be built, while the section designed for storing and handling fuel
and chemicals shall be constructed during the second stage, its exact scope to be determined
according to market requirements. The infrastructure will be linked to the oil terminal in Gdańsk and the
national oil transmission network, thereby substantially expanding the possibilities with respect to the
use of the existing infrastructure and increasing the energy security of Poland. The first stage of the
project is scheduled for completion in 2015.
189
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The largest domestic company in the oil sector is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN S.A., which has one
of the newest and most modern refineries and petrochemical complexes in Europe (it is the owner of the
refinery in Mažeikiai in Lithuania – ORLEN Lietuva, a controlling shareholder of Inowrocławskie
Kopalnie Solino and Czech Unipetrol, which comprises, among others, refineries in Kralupy and
Litwinow and Benzina distribution company, as well as the owner of a chain of filling stations in
Germany – ORLEN Deutschland). In the extraction industry, ORLEN Upstream Sp. z o.o (ORLEN S.A.’s
subsidiary) performed several projects, the major of which consisted of prospecting and management of
oil crude deposits as part of the Sieraków project (in collaboration with PGNiG S.A.), Wierzbica, Lublin,
Lubartów and Garwolin concessions. Moreover, PKN ORLEN S.A. is an active player of the extraction
industry outside Poland (in Canada – through ORLEN Upstream Canada Ltd.).
The second largest entity operating in the oil sector is Grupa LOTOS S.A. Rafineria Gdańska has a
processing capacity of approx. 10.5 million tonnes per year. In the extraction sector, Grupa LOTOS S.A.
comprises, among others, LOTOS Petrobaltic extraction company and LOTOS Exploration and
Production Norge AS. Through its subsidiaries, Grupa LOTOS S.A. only extracts crude oil from the
Polish exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea and in Lithuania. Crude oil extracted in Poland and
Lithuania is delivered to the refinery in Gdańsk.
Security of fuel supply to the market is governed by the Act of 16th of February 2007 on stocks of crude
oil, oil products and natural gas, and the rules of conduct in a situation of potential threat to fuel sector
on a nationwide scale and disruptions on the oil market. The Act, along with the accompanying
secondary legislation, specifies measures aimed at counteracting the disruptions in oil and fuel supplies,
enunciating the procedures for their initiation and their implementation mechanisms. Pursuant to this
legal act, companies which engage in the trade or manufacture of oil and fuels (including LPG) are
under the obligation to create and maintain obligatory stocks.
10.1.8.
Security of the gas sector
The structure of natural gas supplies on the Polish market in 2014 was as follows:
− domestic extraction – 4,388 million cubic meters (in terms of methane-rich natural gas);
− imports from the East – 8,470 million cubic meters;
− other imports (Germany, the Czech Republic, Norway) – 2,701 million cubic meters.
Exports of natural gas from Poland in 2014 amounted to 72 million cubic meters.
In 2014, the level of domestic consumption of natural gas amounted to 14,818 million cubic meters.
In 2014, the working capacity of methane-rich gas underground storage facilities amounted to 2,674.1
million cubic meters and 230 million cubic meters in nitrogen-rich gas storage facilities (UGS Daszewo
and UGS Bonikowo), which corresponds to approx. 18% of its annual consumption in Poland. Higher
capacity of storage facilities was possible owing to the construction of CUGS Kosakowo, extension of
UGS Wierzchowice, Husów, and provision of additional capacities in UGS Strachocina. In 2014, the
average consumption of natural gas amounted to 40.5 million cubic meters in every 24 hours. It should
be mentioned that the amount of the natural gas stored in the natural gas storage facilities
corresponded to 65 days of the average daily demand in 2014.
Compulsory stocks of natural gas were maintained by one company – PGNiG S.A – in accordance with
Article 24(1) of the Act on Stocks. From 1st of October 2013 to 30th of September 2014, the volume of
natural gas maintained as compulsory stock amounted to 836.2 million cubic meters, which corresponds
to at least 30 days of the average daily gas supply.
190
In 2014, PGNiG S.A. carried on its operations with regard to the extension of the existing storage
capacities as well as the establishment of new capacities under the Programme for the development of
working capacity of Underground Gas Storage Facilities, encompassing the following actions:
− the construction of the CUGS Kosakowo – to supply gaseous fuels to the Tricity-Koszalin area
and improve security of these supplies. In 2015, the working capacity reached 112 million cubic
meters, while the completion of the extension of the storage capacity up to 250 million cubic
meters is scheduled for 2021;
− the extension of CUGS Moglino - up to approx. 800 million cubic meters of working capacity by
2021. In 2013, the works connected with the construction of caverns were continued; in
addition, the tender procedure for construction of another five caverns was carried out;
− the extension of UGS Brzeźnica - the extension of UGS Brzeźnica from 65 million cubic meters
to 100 million cubic meters of working capacity is scheduled for completion in 2015.
The implementation of the projects involving the construction of new and extension of existing
underground gas storage facilities will contribute substantially to increasing the level of energy security
and will allow network users to use the storage capacities for trading purposes related to the balancing
of gas supplies to customers as well as the purposes connected with ensuring security of natural gas
supply.
One of the most significant activities carried by out by the operator in 2014 was the investment aimed
at enabling reverse flow service on the Yamal gas pipeline. According to recommendations contained
in the Preventive Action Plan adopted by the Minister of Economy, the operator took steps to improve
the security of natural gas supplies and deepen the integration of the Polish system with systems of
other EU Member States.
Following the extension of infrastructure at the Mallnow point, as part of the reverse flow service since
1st of April 2014 a technical possibility of imports to Poland in an emergency situation (in case of
suspension of supplies from the East to Germany) has been made available on a continuous basis; it
will make a receipt of up to 620,000 cubic meters/h (which is equivalent to approx. 5.4 billion cubic
meters per year) possible.
In addition, the extension of the Włocławek entry point has increased the interruptible capacity for the
reception of natural gas from the Yamal pipeline to the level of 1,270 thousand cubic meters/h
(approximately 11 billion cubic meters/day on an annual scale).
Box 19 Development of interconnections
In accordance with the Preventive Action Plan adopted by the Minister of Economy, investments in transmission
infrastructure are made to ensure the uninterrupted provision of transmission services at the required level of
safety and reliability as well as to create appropriate conditions for the broadly understood development of the
natural gas market in Poland. Investments are implemented according to major investment priorities:
Strategic investments, including tasks for which applications for EU co-financing have been submitted:
investment projects which enable the reception and distribution of imported gas from new sources of gas in
north-western Poland;
investment projects which enable the cooperation between the transmission system and the gas storage
installations in Poland;
investment projects which increase the reliability of gas transmission through primary import entry points;
Diversification of gas supplies:
investment projects which enable the transmission of natural gas obtained from new or developed existing
sources of imported gas (other than those used to receive gas supplies from the East).
Development of interconnections with the Federal Republic of Germany:
development of possibilities to receive natural gas from Yamal-Europe gas pipeline (on a continuous basis)
continued extension of the Lasów node,
191
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Development of interconnections with the Czech Republic:
construction of a connection with the Czech Republic along the North-South Corridor – a new point of entry
to the transmission system – implementation of the North-South investment programme is scheduled for
completion in 2018
Construction of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście
Construction of a connection between Poland and Slovakia
Construction of a connection between Poland and Lithuania
Construction of the Baltic Pipe connection
Development of the gas market:
investment projects which increase the capacity of the transmission network in order to satisfy the increased
demand for natural gas transmission services, both within the direct impact area of the investment and in
other regions of Poland;
investment projects which stem from connection agreements as well as selected tasks where the
connection agreements pertaining to such tasks are currently in the negotiation phase.
Supply security:
investment projects related to the need to adjust the transmission system to new working conditions
resulting from the connection of new sources of imported gas located in the Western Pomerania region;
investment projects which enable the restoration of existing transmission network facilities;
investment projects which stem from the need to adjust the system to applicable rules, legal provisions and
technical guidelines.
Elimination of bottlenecks within the transmission system:
investment projects intended to increase the capacity of transmission networks in locations where
bottlenecks occur. This applies both to existing parts of the network, where, due to maximum capacity being
reached, no technical conditions for connection may be issued and to contemplated parts of the network
which may be constructed in the upcoming years.
10.2. Identification of threats
The situation in the energy sector can be assessed on the basis of the evaluation of conditions in the
individual sub-sectors thereof. Each of them is characterised by specific operational opportunities and
risks. The following, however, are considered to be important for the entire sector, and consequently for
the energy security of the country as such:
 the condition of the infrastructure;
 the burdens caused by high levels of CO2 emissions.
The condition of the transmission and distribution infrastructure
The main challenge faced by the Polish energy sector is the need to invest in new production and
transmission capacities.
The property owned by companies managing the power transmission system is advanced in years.
Most of 400 kV transmission lines were built in 1970s and 1980s. The same applies to 220 kV
transmission lines and transformer units (transformers). The average age of the distribution network is
30 years. Transformer stations and old transmission lines constitute the greatest problem. Poor
condition of the grid leads to high power losses, which in the case of transmission and distribution of
electricity amount to approx. 6.7%. According to the requirements set out in the concession to provide
distribution services, distribution network operators are responsible for the development, operation and
modernisation of the distribution infrastructure in the areas of their operation and for ensuring electricity
supply of required quality parameters to recipients connected to their grids. According to the data
published by the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) President and energy companies, investments in
network infrastructure are supposed to exceed PLN 41 billion by 2019.
192
Long-term modernisation plans of PSE S.A. include the development of 400 kV network along the
existing 220 kV routes, which will result in the extension of the total length of 400 kV lines and, at the
same time, shortening of the total length of 220 kV lines. Their implementation started in the years
2013-2014. Within the scope of activities set out in its articles of association, the transmission system
operator in Poland, i.e. Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (PSE S.A.) remains responsible for the
operation and maintenance of facilities which form part of the transmission system in order to comply
with the duty to ensure the operability of all components of the transmission network at a level which
guarantees the required degree of reliability of electricity supply. At the same time, upon taking over the
components of the existing transmission network, the Transmission Network Operator (TSO) performed
a number of actions aimed at eliminating equipment and components considered to be prone to
malfunctioning.
Power-generating infrastructure
A substantial part of power-generating facilities in the Polish electrical power system is well on its way
towards becoming obsolete – nearly 60% of boilers and turbine sets are over 30 years old. The
decreasing surplus of available power in relation to peak demand is to a large extent the consequence
of the age and technical condition of the existing power plants. In a number of instances unscheduled
power shortages caused, inter alia, by the malfunctioning power generating equipment, make it more
and more difficult for the Transmission Network Operator to ensure the safe operating electricity surplus
at a level of 15%.
Due to the increasingly dated power plants and the consistent introduction of more stringent Community
regulations pertaining to air pollutant emissions (with particular emphasis on sulphur dioxide (SO2) and
nitrogen oxides (NOx), the existing power units will be either decommissioned or subjected to intense
modernisation works.
The decommissioning of individual power units is inevitable only for those units which have been
declared as scheduled for decommissioning by the operators of the respective installations with the
appropriate government administrative authorities within the period between 1 st of January 2008 and
31st of December 2015 within the framework of the so-called environmental derogations provided for
under Directive 2001/80/EC on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from large
combustion plants. This directive allows for a derogation from emission standards which have become
applicable from 1st of January 2008 onwards, on condition that the facilities in question are
decommissioned following no more than 20 thous. additional operational hours within the period
specified.
Due to the dynamic changes in the broad economic environment it is difficult to make clear predictions
as to which of the projects contemplated by investors shall in fact be initiated and implemented within
the currently anticipated timeframe. Final decisions on the relevant investment projects shall be
influenced not only by economic (electric power prices), social and environmental conditions, but also by
the European and domestic climate policy, as the ever-shifting circumstances force investors to modify
their initial plans.
It is planned to decommission by 2020 facilities operating within the domestic power sector with a total
output of 3,800 MW, including:
approx. 2,800 MW among baseload power plants within the centrally dispatched power
generating facility group;
approx. 1,000 MW among commercial power plants and combined heat and power plants within
the non-centrally dispatched power generating facility group.
193
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Issues related to high CO2 emission level
Poland is a country with a relatively low GDP per capita compared to the EU average and for several
decades will remain on a fast track of economic growth in order to compensate for this difference. This
trend, however, will result in increased demand for primary energy, estimated by the International
Energy Agency at approx. 20% in the years 2008 to 2030. These conditions as well as the lack of
technological possibilities to significantly change the fuel structure in Poland in a short-term perspective
(Poland's coal-based economy has one of the highest emission levels in the EU) are the reasons why
an additional reduction of emissions in Poland in the 2020 perspective may turn out to be difficult.
Modernisation of power units at power plants and CHP plants, construction of new flue gas
desulphurisation and dedusting facilities, as well as the use of biomass and fossil fuel co-incineration
technology facilitated a reduction in the emissions of pollutants, mostly dust and SO 2. There are fears
however, that Poland may not fulfil its commitments to the EU in terms of reducing the negative impacts
of the energy sector on the environment. New technological solutions, including Clean Coal
Technologies, and a change in the structure of primary energy carriers aimed at replacing the existing
carriers with low-emission energy carriers, will be necessary.
The new (third) trading period under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will bring many changes in the
EU ETS Directive. In principle, electricity producers will no longer be entitled to free allocation
(allowances will be auctioned). An exception will be made for Member States covered by the so-called
derogation under Article 10c of the Directive. On 13 th of July 2012, the European Commission accepted
Poland’s application (submitted on the basis of art. 10c sect. 5 of the Directive 2003/87/EC of the
European Parliament and of the Council) for temporary allocation of free emission allowances for the
purposes of modernisation of the power generation processes, thereby approving the pool of
allowances scheduled for allocation to power generating facilities (over 404 million EUA).
The actual scale of impact of the Climate and Energy Package adopted by the European Council in
December 2008 on the national economy is to a large extent determined not by the provisions of the
Package, but by the means of implementation of the EU Directives related to the package, as well as
guidelines and decisions of the European Commission. One example is the designation of benchmarks
by the European Commission, according to which free emission allowances are distributed among
individual installations. The benchmarks provided for in Commission Decision determining the
transitional rules for harmonised free allocation of emission allowances, published on 17 th of May 2011,
were set at too low a level, and as a consequence may weaken the competitiveness of companies using
fuels which generate more emissions than natural gas in their production processes, leading to the
liquidation of a large part of the EU industry, including the Polish industry. For the above reason, on 7 th
of July 2011 Poland, intending – inter alia – to provide protection for jobs in the Polish industry, applied
to the Court of Justice of the European Union for the annulment of this decision in its entirety. However,
on 7th of March 2013, the application submitted by Poland was dismissed by the Court.
In October 2014, the European Council adopted Conclusions on 2030 Climate and Energy Policy
Framework setting out three goals:
- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by at least 40% against 1990;
- RES share in the total energy consumption in the EU at a level of at least 27%, and
- improvement of energy efficiency by 2030 in comparison with future energy consumption
forecasts based on current criteria of at least 27%.
As part of the above mentioned Conclusions two important support instruments for Member States,
including Poland, where transformation costs will be higher than in more developed economies of the
EU, were introduced:
194
- Modernisation Fund intended for facilitating the improvement of energy efficiency and
modernisation of energy systems and
- possibility of exercising the right to allocate free CO2 emission allowances to the energy sector
(subject to the emission allowance trading system - the so-called ETS) in order to support
investments aimed at its modernisation.
Nowadays, in order do operationalize the provisions of the Conclusions, Poland strives for the adoption
of solution ensuring its long-term economic growth. Poland opts for solutions which ensure that
reduction obligations are met in a way guaranteeing:
- maximum cost efficiency of such solutions in a long run;
- minimum risk of energy price increases for end users;
- security of supplies of fuels and energy;
- the best conditions enhancing the competitiveness of the Polish economy, in particular sectors
where high risk of carbon leakage exists and
- higher potential of the Polish sector of technologies facilitating the low-emission transformation
(both in terms of research and development as well as implementation) in the scope of the
application of its products in Poland and abroad.
Irrespective of the works related to the climate and energy package as well as the communication
concerning the roadmap 2050, the Ministry of Economy is finishing the preparation of the National LowEmission Economy Development Programme (NPRGN), the main aim of which is to ensure economic,
social and environmental benefits (in accordance with the sustainable development principle) resulting
from the low-emission transformation. Such benefits will be achieved, among others, owing to the
growing innovation and implementation of new technologies, reducing energy intensity, creating new
jobs and, as a consequence, encouraging improvement in the competitiveness of economy until 2050.
The basic risk for energy security in the oil sector in Poland is the low level of crude oil supply
diversification. Efforts need to be made towards increasing crude oil supply from various regions of the
world and from various suppliers using alternative transport routes. The attempts made by Polish
enterprises to gain access to crude oil deposits abroad as well as a planned increase in domestic
production form a part of the risk prevention scheme applied. The construction of the Brody-Płock oil
pipeline with the option of its extension to Gdańsk or to the West (as a part of the EAKTRN project) is
one of the projects in this scope.
A potential risk may be associated with higher export capacity of Russia, the largest oil supplier. The
increase is related to the construction of the BTS-2 pipeline and aims at increasing exports of Russian
crude oil via the port in Primorsk or Ust-Łuda, which, as a consequence, may lead to a limited transport
of crude oil via the Friendship Pipeline.
The system of maintaining intervention stocks of crude oil and fuels (Act of 16th of February 2007 and
the works on the new act on crude oil and liquid fuels intervention stocks financing), as well as joining
the International Energy Agency by Poland (25th of September 2008) contributed to a significant
improvement of Poland's energy security.
A constant and unpredictable risk for the energy sector is the possibility of a natural or man-made
disaster which may result in the disruption of the supply of energy carriers to both individual recipients
and enterprises. The threat of terrorist attacks against components of transmission, processing and
storage infrastructure remains an important issue (due to the fact that Poland remains dependent upon
oil supplies from third countries, every attack which occurs within the territory of such third countries
may have a direct impact on the energy security of our country). In the event of crisis, Poland does not
have the capacity to replace oil with other types of fuel (a process called fuel switching). Another risk
195
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
factor to be borne in mind is oil price volatility which is not always the consequence of purely economic
factors.
A relatively new threat for energy security is the growth of the so-called “grey area” on the liquid fuels
market, in particular with regard to Diesel fuel. The appropriate ministries and authorities continue to
monitor the situation on the retail and wholesale liquid fuels market and cooperate closely with the fuel
industry for the purposes of counteracting this phenomenon – including through the analysis of the
proposals for legislative change.
The formal basis for the guarantees of security in the gas sector are the Risk Assessment on Security
of Gas Supply to Poland, the Preventive Action Plan and the Emergency Plan, prepared in 2014 on the
basis of the provisions of the Regulation (EU) No. 994/2010 of the European Parliament and of the
Council of 20th of October 2010 concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply and
repealing Council Directive 2004/67/EC. The plans referred to above present a number of scenarios
which have a significant influence upon the possibility of ensuring the supply of natural gas to the
recipients thereof, preventive measures the implementation of which would minimise the effects of the
specified threats as well as the procedures for actions to be adopted in the event of a threat to the
supplies of natural gas. The description of the structure of the natural gas market contains two basic
groups of risks (infrastructural risks as well as political and market risks and market risks), which was
subject to a detailed analysis.
Infrastructural risks are related to the danger of gas infrastructure suffering damage as a result of any
human conduct, whether intentional or non-intentional, or as a result of any natural phenomena. The
risks in question pertain primarily to malfunctions of the key components of the national transmission
system which could lead to problems with the supply of gas in the domestic network. According to the
adopted scenarios of events, technical problems may occur both within the territory of Poland and
abroad. Due to the limited possibilities of reaction to technical malfunctions which occur outside the
territory of Poland (changes in supply routes – entry points to the gas transmission system), detailed
analysis focused on scenarios which involved technical malfunctions resulting in the risk of interruptions
in natural gas supplies within the territory of Poland. The identified scenarios of damage to infrastructure
which may have an impact on the security of natural gas supplies in Poland include, in particular:
1) gas compressor station malfunctions;
2) gas node malfunctions.
Political/market risks occur as a result of the links between the national politics and the activities
pursued by energy companies. These links are characterised by the intervention of state governments
(mostly of non-EU countries) in individual sectors of their domestic economies. Such interventions may
lead to the suspension of the implementation of trade contracts and intergovernmental agreements as a
result of unstable political situation (as in the case of the 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009 gas crises) as well
as to the imposition of legal regulations which have an impact on the activities of some of the entities
operating in the energy sector.
Market risks, on the other hand, are risks related to the functioning of the gas market which arise as a
consequence of increasing the share of natural gas in the energy balance and a low supply
diversification indicator as well as risks related to the conduct of gas suppliers.
According to the guidelines of the European Commission contained in the Communication on the
internal energy market, in the event of emergency, Poland should place an emphasis on increasing the
usage of market measures (with particular emphasis on the demand side) at the expense of non-market
measures (including, in particular, the release of compulsory stocks).
196
In connection with the changes which occur on the Polish natural gas market as a consequence of the
implementation of the third climate package it is essential for enterprises to increase the share of market
measures applied in the event of a crisis. Participants of the gas market need to develop detailed
procedures for action in extraordinary circumstances which take into account the use of emergency
contracts, measures for the diversification of sources and routes for the supply of natural gas to the
recipients thereof as well as the broader application of intermittent services as a method of self-limitation
amongst industrial recipients of natural gas. A more flexible approach to import contracts, allowing for
changes to supply routes, as well as the further increase of the maximum 24-hour nominations at
individual gas system entry points would make it possible to ensure the supply of natural gas at an
appropriate level in the event of a crisis.
In 2014, the European Commission published the Communication on the short term resilience of the
European gas system. Preparedness for a possible disruption of supplies from the East during the fall
and winter of 2014/2015 – COM(2014)654. The main objectives of this document are as follows:
1. To determine the level of resilience of the European gas system against major disruptions of
gas supplies to the EU during the winter season 2014/15 and
2. To review short, medium and long-term recommendations enabling the increase the security of
gas supply in the European dimension.
The subject of the analysis presented in the document in question are the crisis scenarios developed by
the European Commission, encompassing the lack of gas supply through the Ukrainian territory and the
lack of Russian gas supply to entire Europe.
Furthermore, within the framework of the activities of the Visegrád Group, in 2014 works have begun on
the preparation of the “Regional Risk Assessment of the V4”. The purpose of this document is to
analyse the regional resilience to disruptions in the supply of natural gas as well as the impact of the
development of interconnections between the V4 countries on the energy security of the Central and
Eastern Europe. The document should be ready in 2015.
197
11.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
11.1. Gross value added and sold output of the construction
industry
11.1.1.
Macroeconomic conditions of the construction sector’s dynamics
and production volume
The construction industry constitutes one of the main branches of economy, aimed at satisfying the
basic material needs of citizens. The deciding factors having an impact on demand for construction
services and enabling construction sector growth are, primarily, the volume and structure of investments
in the economy, the general economic trends on the market and the general economic situation of the
population.
In general, the value and dynamics of gross fixed capital formation has an impact on gross value added
of the construction sector. In 2014, gross fixed capital formation was 9.2% higher than in 2013, while the
gross value added in the construction sector increased by 4.7% and amounted to more than PLN 115
billion. In the analysed period, total capital expenditures increased by 8.7%, while expenditure for
buildings and structures grew by 5.5%.
Chart 52 Changes of gross fixed capital formation and gross value added in the construction sector in
years 2011-2014 (in % compared to the previous year, in constant prices)
%
12
10
10.8
9.3
9.2
8
6
4.7
4
2
1.1
0.3
0
-2
-1.5
-3.2
-4
2011
2012
Gross value added
2013
2014
In the 1st quarter of 2015, a decrease in gross fixed capital formation by 11.4% and a decrease in gross
value added by 4.0% were recorded in the construction sector.
199
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
11.1.2.
Dynamics and structure of construction and assembly output
In 2014, gross value added generated in the construction sector amounted to PLN 115.1 billion, which
accounted for 7.5% of total gross value added (compared to 7.4% in 2013, 8.3% in 2000, and 6.9% in
1995).
Starting from the 3rd quarter of 2013, gross value added in the construction sector has been increasing.
The highest growth in value added was observed in Q4 2013, while in subsequent quarters of 2014 this
growth was gradually decreasing. In the 2014 gross value added in the construction sector increased by
4.7% compared to the previous year. In Q1 2015, the growth of gross value added in the construction
sector amounted to 4%.
Chart 53 Changes of gross fixed capital formation and gross value added in the construction sector in
years 2011-2014 (in %, compared to the previous year, in constant prices).
% 20
15.9
15
13.4
11.2
10
5.7
5
8.2
6.0
5.4
7.8 7.6
3.3 2.3
4.0
0
-0.9
-2.1
-5
-5.0
-7.9
-10
-12.3
-15
2011
2012
Iq
2013
II q
III q
2014
2015
IV q
In 2014, the value of total construction and assembly output was higher than in the previous year by
3.0%, compared to a 5.6% decrease in 2013. In 2014, construction and assembly output (in entities
employing more than 9 individuals) increased by 3.6% YoY, attaining the level of PLN 85.1 billion, with a
larger share represented by renovation than investment works.
An increase in construction and assembly output was observed in enterprises which engage mostly in
works related to civil and water engineering (up by 8.6%) and entities which engage in specialised
construction works (up by 7.5%). Construction and assembly output of enterprises which engage
primarily in the construction of buildings was 4.0% lower than in 2013, while the output of entities
specialising in the construction of residential and non-residential buildings decreased by 5.6%.
In 2014, all groups of entities classified under the division of works related to the construction of civil
and water engineering structures recorded an increase in construction and assembly output. The
highest growth was observed in enterprises from the Works related to the construction of other civil and
water engineering structures group (up by 13.8%). The group with the biggest share in construction and
assembly output sold of this division, i.e. Works related to the construction of roads and railways,
recorded a growth of 8.6%, while the Works related to the construction of pipelines, telecommunication
lines and power lines group recorded a growth of 6.0%.
200
Among all enterprises which engage in specialist construction works, all groups by type of activity
recorded an increase in output compared to 2013. The biggest increase was observed in entities whose
primary area of activity includes miscellaneous specialist construction works (up by 10.0%) and in the
group representing the biggest share in the sale of construction works, i.e. Construction of electrical,
water and sewage and other building installations (up by 8.6%). An increase in output was recorded with
respect to entities which mostly perform finishing works (up by 1.9%) as well as those whose primary
area of activity is demolition of structures and construction site preparation (up by 0.7%).
In 2014, the share of non-residential and residential buildings in the structure of construction and
assembly output by types of buildings decreased compared to 2013 – by 1.5 p.p. to 33.4% and by 0.5
p.p. to 12.6%, respectively. On the other hand, an increase was observed in the share of civil and water
engineering structures (up by 2.0 p.p. to 54.0%), including mainly railways, overhead or suspended
railways (up by 1.3 p.p. to 5.7%) and complex structures in industrial areas (up by 1.2 p.p. to 6.8%). The
share of motorways, expressways, streets and other roads (i.e. the group with the biggest share in
works on civil and water engineering structures) decreased compared to the previous year (down by 1.0
p.p. to 17.1%).
Table 67 Dynamics and structure of sold construction and assembly output in companies employing
more than 9 people in 2013-2014
Total
in which:
 construction of buildings
 construction of civil engeenering
 special construction works
2013
2014
previous year = 100
88.0
103.6
87.8
84.7
93.8
96.0
108.6
107.5
2013
2014
share (%)
100.0
100.0
37.0
37.6
25.4
34.1
39.3
26.6
11.2. Residential construction
11.2.1.
The general situation of residential construction sector
The housing needs belong to a narrow range of needs applicable to all citizens and persist throughout
their whole life. In comparison to other European countries, the situation of the residential construction
sector in Poland is unfavourable. According to the OECD ranking concerning housing conditions,
Poland still holds one of the last positions.
Housing deficit remains one of the main problems. According to the 2011 National Census, the
difference between the number of occupied apartments and number of households amounted at that
time to 1,039.3 thousand apartments, most of which were located in urban areas (554.6 thousand). It
was a better result than in 2002, when the potential deficit was assessed at 1,573.5 thousand
apartments, but still indicates a significant gap in the availability of own accommodation. In addition, part
of the premises used is in poor condition or substandard.
Apart from the physical availability of real estate, another important issue is the lack of funds to
purchase own apartments, especially among young people, caused by low income and high costs of
building new structures. In Poland, approximately 50% of adults reside with parents due to the lack of
financial ability to purchase an own apartment. In the European Union, this value amounts to 15%. This
is caused by the lack of availability of housing units intended for less affluent individuals. Among
apartments commissioned in 2014, apartments constructed individually represented 53%, while
201
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
apartments constructed by developers represented 41%. These are investments intended, for the most
part, for individuals with high income. Cooperative, social tenement, communal and social housing units
available to less affluent individuals represented 6% of dwellings commissioned in 2014, which is
insufficient to satisfy the needs in this sector. The construction of cooperative housing with cheap rent
and other construction intended for the poorest have been declining constantly over the last 25 years. In
order the increase housing resources intended for the poorest, the state provides local governments
and public benefit organisations with subsidies for their development. In the years 2007 - 2014, aid was
provided for the construction of approximately 14.5 thousand housing units and 1.1 thousand lodgings.
At the same time, it is necessary to note that prices of real estate have been slightly adjusted to the
clients' needs. The situation on the financial market could also have contributed to such adjustment.
Low interest rates of the National Bank of Poland translated into lower costs of loans and encouraged
people to utilise deposited savings. It was also still possible to take advantage of support programmes.
In its initial version, the Apartment for the Young programme introduced in 2014, which provides support
by co-financing own contribution for families purchasing their first apartment, was very restrictive.
Initially, it provided for the possibility of purchasing an apartment only from developers and did not apply
to residential houses and the secondary market. This made it very difficult for residents of rural areas
and small towns to take advantage of the programme and required abandoning the previous source of
cheapest apartments. According to data provided by the National Bank of Poland for Q2 2014, in
Warsaw, the price per m2 of a new apartment was PLN 500 higher than per m2 of an apartment from the
secondary market. An amendment to the programme provided for the coverage of residential houses
with a maximum area of 110 m2. In 2015, subsequent amendments were introduced with the aim to
improve the terms and conditions of the programme. The governmental construction support
programme will also apply to apartments from the secondary market. With the addition of new
provisions, the programme will be better utilised by large families, as a part of limits applicable thereto
has been removed and the amount of co-financing has been increased. The limit of apartments
available under the programme was also increased. The programme was extended to include
apartments being constructed by housing cooperatives and apartments created through the
redevelopment or adaptation of non-residential buildings.
The support for the residential housing sector is also sought through the amendment of investment and
building law. In order to facilitate this process, in 2012 the Ministry of Infrastructure and Development
established the Building Law Codification Committee which conducts works on the new building code.
The draft presented in February 2015 systematised the provisions of law included hitherto in separate
acts. The draft is aimed at adding more flexibility to legislative and remedial procedures, facilitating the
implementation of construction projects and stabilising issued building permits. In subsequent stages, it
is also planned to develop the part of the building code pertaining to spatial planning. Prior to 2012,
Poland was also one of the last EU Member States without complex regulations concerning the
relationship between the buyer and developer. The Act on the Protection of the Rights of the Purchaser
of a Dwelling or a Detached House, adopted on 16th of September 2011, facilitated the process of
purchasing apartments on the primary market and introduced a number of changes with regard to
consumer protection.
The amendment of the Building Law entered into force on 28th of June 2015. The Act will facilitate and
simplify the building process for most construction projects. Administrative burdens placed on the
developer will be reduced. It will streamline the process of obtaining the building consent (both in the
form of a building permit and tacit consent). The amendment also facilitates the building process, in
particular by removing the requirement of obtaining a building permit in relation to certain structures.
202
11.2.2.
Residential construction in 2014
In 2014, a total of 143.2 thousand new apartments were commissioned – i.e. 1.9 thousand less than in
2013 (down by 1.3%). The decrease in the number of commissioned apartments pertained to individual
construction (down by nearly 5 thousand apartments), communal housing and cooperative housing.
More apartments were commissioned in the sector of apartments intended for sale or rent, social
tenement housing and company housing.
In the general number of apartments commissioned in individual construction (i.e. construction
performed by natural persons pursuing and not pursuing business activity, foundations, churches and
religious associations), apartments commissioned for the personal use of the investor and their family
represented 87.1%, while apartments commissioned by natural persons, intended for sale or rent (to
achieve profit), represented 12.9%.
In 2014, more than 156 thousand building permits with regard to apartments were issued. The
construction of 148 thousand apartments began, i.e. approximately 20 thousand apartments more than
in 2013.
Table 68 Number of apartments commissioned in 2012-2014 according to the type of construction
scheme
2012
2013
Number of
Number of
2011=100
2012=100
flats
flats
Total
152,904
116.8
145,388
95.1
Individual
81,050
110.2
81,302
100.3
For sale or rent
63,586
130.3
56,599
89.0
Cooperative
4,194
110.8
3,507
83.6
Social
1,146
57.9
1,308
114.1
Communal
2,389
95.6
2,230
93.3
Corporate
539
167.9
442
82.0
Source: Residential housing in Q1-Q4 2014, Central Statistical Office (GUS).
Type
2014
Number of
2013=100
flats
143,235
98.7
76,151
93.7
59,105
104.7
3,490
99.9
1,718
131.3
2,181
98.3
590
133.5
In Q1 2015, a total of 31.7 thousand apartments were commissioned, which is 3.8 thousand (10.8%)
less than in Q1 2014; building permits were granted for approx. 38.6 thousand new apartments,
compared to approx. 33.3 thousand in Q1 2014. In Q1 2015, the number of apartments the construction
of which has commenced totalled 31.8 thousand, i.e. 423 apartments (1.3%) less than in Q1 201461.
11.3. Assessment of the construction industry performance
Year 2014 was a difficult year for construction companies, despite the growth recorded in construction
and assembly output as compared to the previous year. This was particularly true for the construction of
buildings. According to data provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), construction and assembly
output in this sector grew in the first five months, as compared to the previous year, but started to
decline from the second half of the year; in December, construction and assembly output was 3.8%
lower compared to the previous year.
Construction and assembly output prices have been on the decline throughout the whole year. The only
exception were specialist construction works, the prices of which have slightly increased in the last
months. At the same time, wages increased due to the lack of a qualified workforce. In comparison to
61
Preliminary data provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
203
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
the previous year, average gross monthly salary in the construction sector grew at an average rate of
4.3%. From March until the end of September, a high increase in operating costs per hour of labour of
an employed individual was recorded; a slight drop in this respect was observed in October, mainly due
to the reduction of fuel prices. This resulted in a sudden decline in profitability, especially among small
companies, the average margin of which has declined twofold from February to the end of December. At
the same time, there has been a reduction in employment in the construction sector. According to the
Central Statistical Office (GUS) data, average employment in this sector in 2014 reached the level of
584 thousand, which is 7.7% less than in the previous year.
According to a survey performed by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the overall economic climate in
the construction industry at the end of 2014 was assessed negatively, with such negative assessment
persisting for several past years. Only 9% of enterprises participating in the study believed that the
economic situation will improve, while 12% believed that it will deteriorate. Remaining enterprises
declared that their situation will not change. The unfavourable assessment of the overall economic
situation was recorded in all types of enterprises, with the most negative assessment observed with
respect to micro-enterprises.
The current evaluations and forecasts with respect to the order portfolio, construction and assembly
output as well as financial standing were also unfavourable, but less so than in the previous year. In
addition, companies complained about the increasing delays in payment for construction and assembly
works already performed. Among enterprises participating in the study, 21% (compared to 18% in the
previous year) plans to perform construction and assembly works abroad. However, directors of those
enterprises expect a limited portfolio of orders for construction and assembly works on foreign markets,
but to a lesser extent than in the previous year.
In December 2014, usage of output capacity by construction enterprises amounted to 77% (compared
to 73% in the same month in the previous year). 19% of construction and assembly companies
considered their capacity to be too high compared to their expected order portfolio in the months to
come, 69% – as sufficient, and 12% – as too low.
The results of the construction sectors were considerably influenced by barriers which limit and hinder
the performance of contracts. The percentage of entrepreneurs which experienced no barriers
whatsoever with respect to the conduct of ongoing activities was 3.7% (compared to 2.9% in a previous
year). The most substantial problems encountered by enterprises which stated that they have faced
certain barriers were related to employment costs (61% of enterprises in December 2014 and 60% in
the corresponding period of the previous year) as well as competition on the market (55% and 58%,
respectively). Compared to December 2013, the biggest decrease in the number of enterprises pointing
toward specific barriers pertained to the barriers related to uncertainty with respect to the overall
economic situation (down from 46% to 37%), as well as insufficient demand (from 40% to 34%).
The analysis of the situation in the construction industry in the first months of 2015 is more optimistic.
was slightly more optimistic. Enterprise owners expect the sector's financial situation to stabilise in the
near future. Funds earmarked for investments under the financial perspective 2014-2020 are to provide
an opportunity for the development of this sector. Together with additional own funds, they will be
earmarked for investments in the transport infrastructure (the General Directorate of Roads and
Motorways intends to spend approx. PLN 93 billion62 by 2023, PKP PLK plans expenditures of approx.
PLN 8 billion in 2015), energy infrastructure (transmission grids, gas projects), hydro-technical
62
The National Road Construction Programme for the years 2014-2020.
204
investments, and investments in the area of environmental protection. In addition, the forecast GDP
growth in subsequent years should increase public sector investments in infrastructure.
The improvement of the economic situation should also translate into better results in the residential,
warehouse and office construction sectors. A new, but already visible phenomenon is the development
of construction characterised by low energy and water consumption, low carbon dioxide emission and
the use of environmentally-friendly materials. However, enterprises consistently point to employment
costs and market competition as the main factors hindering the development of the sector.
205
12.
SERVICES SECTOR
The role of the services sector in Polish economy grows successively from the beginning of socioeconomic transformations initiated in the years 1989-1990. Its contribution to the generation of gross
value added and GDP have been steadily growing – from approximately 50% of the share in the
generation of GDP in 1990 to approximately 65% at present. In addition, an increasingly larger part of
Polish employees works in the services sector – currently, every other Pole works in this sector.
Although the sector is still dominated by micro-companies, more and more large Polish companies
which operate on the basis of modern business models enter the scene, successfully expanding the
scale of their activities on an international scale.
12.1. Value added (market and non-market services)
In the services sector63, value added in the period of 2005-2014 grew by 36.1%, while in the entire
economy – 41.1%. From the long-term analysis of both segments of the services sector it is readily
apparent that the gross value added is growing at a much faster rate in market services64 (up by 41% in
the years 2005-2014) than in non-market services65 (up by 17.1% in the years 2005-2014).
The services sector in Poland makes the largest contribution to the gross value added and GDP
(63.8%). It is clear that Poland is slowly approaching the structure that can be observed in OECD
countries, where the average share of services amounts to 70%. In OECD countries, market services
participate in around 50% of the value added in the economy and non-market services participate in
around 20% thereof (for Poland in 2014 these figures were 49.5% and 14.3%, respectively) 66.
In 2014, gross value added in the services sector amounted to PLN 979.9 billion (up by 3.4% YoY, in
current prices); market services accounted for about 77% of the said amount while non-market services
accounted for 23% thereof. In constant prices, the increase in the gross value added for market services
amounted to 4.4% (i.e. up by 0.2 p.p. compared to 2013), while for non-market services the
corresponding result was 0.1% (i.e. down by over 3.5 p.p. more compared to 2013).
According to the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007, the services sector comprises sections from Section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, including motorcycles to Section S - Other service activities. (according
to the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007).
64 Within the following sections: Section G – Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, including motorcycles;
Section H - Transportation and storage, Section I - Accommodation and food service activities, Section J – Information and
communication, Section K – Financial and insurance activities, Section L – Real estate activities, Section M – Professional,
scientific and technical activities, Section N – Administrative and support service activities, Section R – Arts, entertainment
and recreation, Section S – Other service activities.
65 Within the following sections: Section O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, Section P –
Education, Section Q – Healthcare and social work activities.
66 Calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of: Central Statistical
Office (GUS) data, Poland – Macroeconomic indicators, Part III – Annual macroeconomic indicators, national accounts.
63
207
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 69 Dynamics of gross value added in constant prices in years 2008-2014 (in percentages)
Total
Services
Market services
activities
Administrative and support service
activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other services activities
Non-market services
2008
103.8
104.0
104.9
105.3
94.6
98.7
109.2
111.6
100.0
2009
102.9
102.7
102.1
104.6
96.5
102.5
104.0
91.2
101.2
2010
103.8
102.2
102.5
103.9
100.5
100.2
101.2
98.1
105.6
2011
104.7
102.8
103.4
97.4
112.5
107.7
106.5
109.0
104.2
2012
101.8
102.9
103.7
103.2
111.7
104.2
110.1
89.5
101.9
2013
101.8
102.1
102.5
100.1
100.2
106.6
103.8
113.2
98.9
2014
103.2
102.7
103.1
103.5
106.5
102.6
100.7
103.2
101.3
2014/
2005
135.7
136.1
141.6
132.6
141.5
132.3
157.3
145.9
117.9
110.2
104.3
97.8
102.1
102.9
103.5
101.0
142.3
111.8
104.4
101.4
101.3
108.7
102.3
101.3
104.6
108.1
92.3
114.8
100.9
115.1
98.8
105.4
101.0
108.0
97.9
105.3
100.3
105.8
90.9
113.1
100.9
103.5
101.5
101.8
101.5
233.1
98.2
177.5
117.1
Public administration and defence;
compulsory social security
102.2
105.2
99.1
98.7
99.1
100.1
102.7
Education
100.7
103.8
98.2
100.8
99.6
98.3
99.9
Human health and social work
activities
100.7
104.8
106.9
104.3
102.7
105.1
101.5
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) (annual macroeconomic indicators, updated 23.04.2014), calculations
Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
112.1
104.1
137.8
by the
The largest section among market services is the trade and repair section, followed by transportation
and storage as well as real estate activities. In 2014, the trade and repair section accounted for 19.2%
of the national value added; transportation and storage accounted for 6.6%, while the subsequent
section – professional, scientific and technical activities – for 5.2%.
Insofar as non-market services are concerned, the public administration and defence; compulsory social
security section continues to dominate (with a 5.6% share in the national value added in 2014). The
education section and the healthcare and social work activities section accounted for 4.5% and 4.2%,
respectively. All non-market services sections recorded slight growths (by approx. 0.1-0.4 p.p.)
12.2. General characteristics of the services sector
In 2014, according to the business breakdown structure, approximately 76.8% of enterprises registered
in the REGON system operated in the services sector (up by approximately 0.5% compared to the
previous year). Among them, approximately 96.2% were private companies, mostly operating in the
following sections: trade; repair of motor vehicles (more than 1 million enterprises), professional,
scientific and technical activities (385.1 thousand enterprises) as well as transportation and storage
(252.5 thousand enterprises).67
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Local Data Bank: Entities in the national economy entered into the REGON registry,
Entities by sections and divisions of the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007 and ownership sectors.
67
208
Table 70 Economic entities within the services sector according to ownership sectors and PKD 2007
sections in years 2012-2014*
2012
Private
sector
2013
Public
sector
Private
sector
2014
Public
sector
Private
sector
Public
sector
Market services
1,065,412
369 1,065,412
369 1,070,135
354
252,522
564
252,522
564
252,590
552
123,856
909
123,856
909
127,465
924
108,203
189
108,203
189
123,595
177
128,527
116
128,527
116
128,342
123
167,220
43,364
167,220
43,364
180,964
43,645
activities
350,256
1,767
350,256
1,767
385,105
1,789
Administrative and support service activities
101,840
171
101,840
171
116,731
170
63,211
5,653
63,211
5,653
67,172
5,652
Other services activities
243,499
99
243,499
99
266,494
109
Non-market services
Public administration and defence;
compulsory social security
16,386
10,661
16,386
10,661
16,497
10,568
Education
91,020
48,314
91,020
48,314
99,272
46,701
Human health and social work activities
195,987
7,119
195,987
7,119
211,940
7,249
* Concerns economic entities registered with the REGON system.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), Local Data Bank - Entities in the national economy entered into the REGON
registry, 2015.
As in previous years, the enterprise size structure in the services sector did not change and remains
dominated by microenterprises employing up to 9 persons, which account for approximately 96% of all
enterprises in the sector. Approximately 3.1% of all enterprises operating in the sector employ between
10 and 49 persons, and large enterprises (with 50 employees or more) account for about 0.1% of the
sector. Micro-enterprises by far outnumber other entities both in the market services sector (over 97%)
and in the non-market services sector (over 88%).
Table 71 Employment level in the services sector as at 31.12. (in thousands) in 2012-2014 *
2012
8,447
5,232
2,928
1,157
492
130
175
285
116
243
330
2,305
2013
2012=100
8,509
100.7
5,316
101.6
2,985
101.9
1,175
101.6
495
100.7
130
100.2
183
104.2
284
99.7
114
97.8
254
104.4
350
106.2
2,332
101.2
2014
2013=100
8,609
101.2
5,401
101.6
3,047
102.1
1,200
102.1
502
101.4
132
101.1
190
104.0
283
99.8
116
101.5
263
103.8
362
103.3
2,354
100.9
Total in the Polish economy
Services **
Market services **
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Non-market services
Public administration and defence; compulsory
social security
636
639
100.4
645
101.0
Education
1,036
1,054
101.7
1,067
101.2
Human health and social work activities
632
639
101.1
642
100.4
* Does not include economic entities employing less than 9 persons.
** Not included two sections of PKD 2007: Section R - Cultural activities, entertainment and recreation, Section S - Other
service activities.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), Employment and wages in the national economy, 2014.
209
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Average employment in the services sector in 2014 amounted to 5,119 thousand people, i.e. nearly 4
p.p. less than in 2013.68 At the same time, average employment in the sector in the previous year was
approximately 16% higher than in 2005. Similarly as in the entire economy, rapid growth in employment
occurred in 2007 and 2008. In subsequent years, the growth rate significantly slowed down, but
employment continued to increase with each passing year. Substantial differences in the employment
growth rate can be seen between market and non-market services. In the analysed period, employment
in market services grew by approximately 29%, while employment in non-market services increased by
approximately 3%. In 2014, the number of people employed in the services sector increased by 1%.
This growth can be attributed, for the most part, to the market services sector which observed an
employment increase of approx. 2.1%, while growth in the non-market services sector amounted to
approx. 0.9%.
In 2014, growth in employment compared to the previous year was recorded in all sections of market
and non-market services but the financial and insurance activities section, which observed a slight
decline (down by approx. 0.2%). The highest increase in the market services section took place in the
information and communication section (up by 4.0%), while the lowest - in accommodation and food
service activities (down by approx. 1.1%). Insofar as non-market services are concerned, the highest
increase in the number of people employed took place in the education section (up by approx. 1.2%),
and the lowest - in healthcare and social work activities (down by approx. 0.4%).
12.3. Trade and repair
The trade and repair section is among the most important sections insofar as the share in the generated
value added in concerned. In 2014, this share grew slightly compared to 2013 (by 0.1 p.p.), reaching a
level of 19.2% of the entire economy. The average employment in this section totalled 1,130 thousand
people, i.e. approx. 1.3% more than in 2013. It is worth noting that the only division in the section to
record a decline in employment in the enterprise sector was wholesale and retail trade in motor vehicles
and their repair (down by 3.3%). In the case of the two other sections, employment recorded a slight
increase: by 0.2% in wholesale trade and by 2.9% in retail trade.
In terms of the number of entities, employment level as well as the value of export, the trade and repair
section is the largest section of the Polish services sector. In 2014, there were approx. 1.1 million
enterprises which pursued activities in this field (0.4% less than in the previous year), which accounted
for approx. 26% of all business entities entered into the REGON registry (compared to 26.8% in the
previous year)69.
As in the previous year, the most numerous group of entities within this section 70 are micro-enterprises,
i.e. entities which employ up to 9 persons, accounting for approx. 97.1% of the total number of entities
within this section. With respect to the ownership structure, the section is notable for its uniformity –
entities from the private sector constitute nearly 100% of all entities within the section in question and
most of them are sole traders.
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Employment and salaries in the national economy for year 2014; The data provided
pertains to entities employing more than 9 persons.
69 Central Statistical Office (GUS), Structural changes in groups of entities in the national economy entered into the REGON
registry, 2014.
70 Ibidem.
68
210
Table 72 Number of employed persons of the economic entities operating in the trade and repairs section
divided according to the Polish Classification of Activities, in years 2012-2014
Specification
2012
Number of
employess
in thous.
1,122
96
Trade and repeairs, including:
- sales and repairs of motor vehicles and
motorcycles, sales of motor fuels
- wholesale and resale trade
441
retail trade
- repairs of personal and household
585
appliances
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) Statistical Bulletin.
2011 =
100
in %
100.4
95.5
2013
Number of 2012 =
employess
100
in thous. in %
1,115
99.4
91
95.6
2014
Number of
employess
in thous.
1,130
88
2013 =
100
in %
101.3
96.7
101.4
435
98.6
436
100.2
100.5
588
100.5
605
102.9
Table 73 Economic entities in the trade and repair section* divided according to the number of employees
and the Polish Classification of Activities divisions in years 2012-2014**
2012
2013
2014
Number of
Number of
Number of
2012 = 100
Number of
2013=100
employees
entities
entities
entities
Total trade and repairs*
total
1,065,781
1,074,744
100.8
1,070,699
99.6
0-9
1,034,278
1,043,671
100.9
1,039,367
99.6
including:
10-49
27,898
27,501
98.6
27,812
101.1
50-249
3,208
3,176
99.0
3,131
98.6
250-999
336
336
100.0
329
97.9
1000 and more
61
60
98.4
30
100.0
Sales, services and
total
146,687
150,519
102.6
152,879
101.6
repairs of motor
0-9
143,247
147,140
102.7
149,505
101.6
vehicles and
10-49
3,041
2,984
98.1
2,986
100.1
motorcycles; retail
50-249
376
374
99.5
368
98.4
sales of motor fuels
250-999
20
19
95.0
18
94.7
1000 and more
3
2
66.7
2
100.0
Wholesale, excluding
total
283,871
289,304
101.9
292,431
101.1
motor vehicles
0-9
268,610
274,185
102.1
277,221
101.1
10-49
13,468
13,354
99.2
13,464
100.8
50-249
1,604
1,581
98.6
1,560
98.7
250-999
167
164
98.2
167
101.8
1000 and more
22
20
90.9
19
95.0
Retail sales, excluding
total
635,223
634,921
99.9
625,389
98.5
motor vehicles
0-9
622,421
622,346
99.9
612,641
98.4
10-49
11,389
11,163
98.0
11,362
101.8
50-249
1,228
1,221
99.4
1,203
98.5
250-999
149
153
102.7
144
94.1
1000 and more
36
38
105.6
39
102.6
* Abbreviated name; the full name of section is Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, including motorcycles.
** Entities of the national economy according to the projected number of employees as well as to sections and divisions of
the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), Structural changes of groups of entities of the national economy in the REGON
2014.
The average monthly gross salary in the trade and repair section increased by 4.1% in 2014, reaching
the level of PLN 3,126, which is approximately 82.6% of the gross average remuneration in the entire
Polish economy71. It is worth noting that this is another year in a row in which the average monthly
salary in the section increased. Unfortunately, the discrepancy between the average pay in the trade
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Changes in employment and salaries in the national economy for year 2014; Data
concerning gross monthly salaries pertains to all enterprises (i.e. including entities employing less than 9 persons).
71
211
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
section and the average pay in the entire national economy is still present. In years 2000-2011, the
average pay in the trade section represented 81.5% of the average pay in general. The lower level of
average salaries in this section compared to the economy as a whole is mostly the consequence of
salaries of employees of micro-enterprises operating in retail trade, where salaries are traditionally one
of the lowest in the services sector.
Retail trade (in constant prices)72 increased by 4.1% in 2013, compared to a 2.5% increase in 2013. The
most substantial increase was recorded for textiles, wearing apparel, footwear (17.2%), pharmaceutical,
orthopaedic equipment (10.6%), and other retail sale in non-specialised outlets (7.5%). The sale of
solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, in turn, experienced a decline (down by 3.4%).
Wholesale trade of commercial enterprises (in current prices) in 2014 increased by 0.7% compared to
the previous year (with a 3.5% growth recorded in 2013). A decrease in wholesale trade was
experienced in the following six categories: trade on a fee or contract basis (4.1%), food (4%), alcohol
and non-alcoholic beverages (15.6%), tobacco products (12%), household appliances, consumer
electronics, household goods (3.1%), intermediate products and waste of non-agricultural origin and
scrap (2.8%). An increase in wholesale trade was experienced in the following categories: cosmetics
and pharmaceutical products (5.9%), ICT tools, machinery, devices and equipment (6.9%) and nonspecialised wholesale trade (9.5%).
In 2014, total operating revenues in the trade and repair section73 grew by 3.3%, while total operating
costs increased by 3.2%. The overall financial result on the sale of products, goods and materials
increased by 15.4%; for the economy as a whole, this indicator increased by only 8.8%. Similarly as in
the previous year, the sector experienced a slight increase with respect to the majority of profitability
indicators74.
The net and gross financial result increased by 8.1% and 10.3%, respectively, compared to a decline in
both these categories in the previous year.
In 2014, the debt of trade and repair companies increased by approx. 4.4% to PLN 219 billion.
12.4. E-commerce
E-commerce75 constitutes an essential element of the information society and, in economic terms, is
one of the most rapidly developing trade segments. Despite the fact that traditional sales methods are
still dominant on the Polish retail and wholesale market, e-commerce begins to play an increasingly
important role and offers both trade parties: easier communication, faster access to goods and services,
reduction of transaction costs and easier access to new markets. E-commerce has a substantial impact
on the competitiveness of enterprises, becoming an important segment of the modern economy.
In 2013, the net value of sales revenues generated through the website or automatic data exchange
totalled PLN 356 billion (i.e. slightly more than in the previous year) and accounted for 11.5% of total net
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Statistical Bulletin No. 4 of 2015.
Based on information included in the INSIGOS database on enterprises employing more than 9 persons.
74 Profitability of: sale of products, goods and materials, gross and net turnover from total capital activity, and ROA.
75 According to the definition by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), e-commerce includes transactions carried out through
IP-based networks and other computer networks, also using the Electronic Data Interchange standard. Goods and services
are ordered electronically, but payment and delivery of the ordered goods or services may take place in any form (including
offline).
72
73
212
revenue76. According to analyses performed by the Centre for Retail Research, on-line trade in Poland
in 2014 accounted for 2.8% of the entire retail market. The most developed markets in this regard in
Europe are still the United Kingdom and Germany (13.5% and 10% of the share of e-commerce in the
retail market, respectively). The e-commerce market in Spain and Italy is of a similar scale to Poland
(3.0% and 2.1%, respectively).77
In the context of a single digital market and EU priorities, in May 2015, the European Commission
officially commenced sector studies on the e-commerce market, aimed at gaining a better
understanding of trade practices applied by enterprises and, in particular, at the determination of crossborder barriers. Initial reports from the sector study are expected in the middle of 2016.
Studies conducted in 2014 by the Polish e-Commerce Chamber78 indicate that nearly half of Polish
Internet users shop online, of whom more than 70% shop on Polish websites only (mainly due to more
safe and reliable transactions as well as cheaper and quicker delivery compared to foreign websites).
The main factors which influence the Internet users’ decision to shop online include: 24h availability,
convenience, prices and comparability of prices. The choice of a specific store, in turn, is determined by
the price of goods and delivery. Most frequently Poles shop online for clothes and accessories, books,
films as well as consumer electronics and household appliances.
Internet is a pre-requisite for the development of e-commerce. According to Eurostat data, the
percentage of Polish households with access to the Internet increases every year and, in 2014, reached
75% (71% of which had access to a broadband connection). The EU average is still 6-7 percentage
points higher and this disproportion has persisted for several years now. In terms of digitisation of
households measured in this way, Poland is ahead of, inter alia, Italy, Spain and Hungary, but still falls
short of not only highly developed countries of Northern Europe, but also of its neighbours, i.e. the
Czech Republic and Slovakia. In the case of enterprises, the level of digitisation is slightly higher. In
2014, 93% of enterprises employing more than 9 persons had access to the Internet – compared with
the EU average of 97%.
Among enterprises surveyed by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in 2014, 94.4% were equipped with
computers (compared to 95% in the previous year), with the degree of computerisation increasing
proportionally to the size of an enterprise. Among enterprises employing more than 49 persons, this
indicator exceeds 99% (compared to 99.3% in 2014). At the same time, enterprises increasingly more
often equip their employees with mobile devices enabling mobile Internet access (in 2014 – 64.4%).
In 2014, 93.1% had Internet access (compared to 93.6% in the previous year), of which 90.4% had
access to broadband Internet. Access to the Internet differs among enterprises depending on their size.
While nearly all large and medium-sized companies (99.6% and 99.0%, respectively) had access to the
Internet in 2014, this percentage among small companies (10-49 employees) was 92.3%.
The use of mobile Internet among enterprises is becoming increasingly popular. The majority of them
still used DSL connections in the previous year (84.7%), i.e. significantly more than in 2013 (66.2%).
The penetration of wireless Internet also experienced significant growth (from 58.4% to 64.4%).
In 2013, only 11.7% of companies surveyed by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) carried out sales
over the Internet. Revenues from such sale represented 11.5% of total net value of their sales revenues
Use of Information and Communication Technologies in Enterprises and Households in 2013, Central Statistical Office
(GUS) 2014.
77 www.retailresearch.org.
78 E-Commerce in Poland 2014. Gemius for e-Commerce Polska, Warsaw, 2014.
76
213
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
(compared to 10.1% in 2011 and 11.3% in 2012). The highest share of Internet sales was observed in
the manufacture of motor vehicles and tourism (41.4% and 31.1%, respectively). The highest share of
Internet sales (i.e. 17.2%) was recorded in the north-western macroregion (Dolnośląskie and Opolskie
voivodeships), while the lowest in the northern macroregion (Kujawsko-Pomorskie, WarmińskoMazurskie, Pomorskie voivodeships) – 7.3%.
As far as the B2B (business-to-business) channel is concerned, in 2013, 23.6% of enterprises on
average placed orders via computer networks (compared to 21.2% in 2012), using a website (23.1%) or
EDI messages (6.2%). Online orders were most common in industries connected with information and
computer technologies and equipment. Conversely, business entities from food and construction
industries showed the least interest in this method of purchase.
As regards the size of entities, online transactions are still more popular among large enterprises. In
2013, 34.4% of large and only 10.1% small enterprises carried out sale over the Internet (compared to
1/3 of large and 8.9% of small enterprises in the previous year). Online sales represented 17.9% of the
total net sales revenues of large companies and only 3.9% of revenues of the small enterprises
(compared to 17.2% and 3.6%, respectively, in the previous year). In addition, while every second large
company placed orders via a website or EDI messages (58.6% compared to 52.6% in 2012), the same
method was used only by 20.9% of small companies (18.1% in 2012).
E-commerce activities may be performed not only using online portals or networks, but also through the
websites of individual enterprises. In 2014, like in the previous year, 2/3 of all surveyed enterprises had
their own website; the main purpose of such websites was to present goods and price lists to
customers.
12.5. Transportation and storage
In 2014, the transportation and storage section79 generated (in current prices) 13.3% of the gross value
added in the market services sector and 6.6% of the gross value added in the entire economy
(compared to 12.2% and 6%, respectively, in the previous year)80.
In 2014, the growth of the gross value added in transportation and storage amounted to 13.8% in
current prices (6.5% in constant prices). Average employment in this section in 2014 amounted to 592
thousand people, i.e. 1.2% more than in 2013.81
The number of entities operating in the section amounted to over 253 thousand at the end of 2014,
which means an increase by approximately 0.1% in relation to the previous year. The structure
according to the size of entities operating in transportation, storage and communication is similar to the
structure in the trade and repair section. Micro-enterprises (up to 9 employees) remain the dominant
group; their share in the sector amounted to 97.8% in 2013.82
Section H - Transportation and storage (Polish Classification of Activities (PKD) 2007).
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Statistical Bulletin No. 4 of 2013.
81 Central Statistical Office (GUS), Changes in employment and salaries in the national economy for year 2014; Data
concerning gross monthly salaries pertains to all enterprises (i.e. including entities employing less than 9 persons).
82 Central Statistical Office (GUS), Structural changes in groups of entities in the national economy entered into the REGON
registry, 2014.
79
80
214
As regards all entities engaging in the provision of transportation services, the level of sales in 201483
was 2.6% higher compared to the previous year (with an increase of over 3% in 2013). In the case of
entities engaging in the provision of transportation services and employing more than 9 persons, the
level of sales in 2014 was 4.4% higher compared to the previous year (with a 4.8% increase in 2013). 84
Among the groups with the biggest share in the transportation section overall in 2014, road transport as
well as warehousing and transport support activities were the sections in which the sale of services
increased (up by 5.1% and 4.0%, respectively). Conversely, the railway transport section experienced a
decline in sales (down by 1.1%).85
Table 74 Basic economic and financial data for the transportation and storage section, divided according
to PKD (Polish Classification of Activities) divisions in 2014 in the enterprises sector
Number of
Average
Number of
Employees Employment
entities at
(thousands) (thousands)
year–end *
**
**
Revenues
from total
activities
(PLN bn) **
Costs of
total
activities
(PLN bn) **
Net
Gross
financial
financial
result
result
(PLN bn)
(PLN bn) **
**
Transportation
253,191
498
484
124.8
121.0
3.9
2.9
and storage
in which:
226,575
290
289.0
71.5
68.6
2.9
2.3
Water transport
1,237
nd
2.0
1.2
1.0
0.2
0.1
Air transport
515
nd
nd
5.9
6.1
-0.2
-0.2
Storage and
supporting transport 19,574
114
111
37.7
37.0
0.7
0.5
activities
Postal and courier
5,290
nd
nd
8.3
8.1
0.2
0.2
activities
Notes: * according to the REGON register. ** The data provided pertain to entities with more than 9 employees.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS), Local Data Bank - Entities according to sections and divisions of the PKD 2007
classification, Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and Insigos (Ministry of Economy), based on F-01
GUS reports.
The total volume of cargo in 2014 amounted to 1.166 million tonnes, i.e. 1.1% more than in 2013. A
decrease in cargo volume was experienced in maritime, railway and pipeline transport, whereas the
figures for road and inland waterway transport increased.86
In 2014, both total operating revenues and costs in the transportation and storage section increased by
5.4% and 5.6%, respectively. As a result, the profitability of pursued activities deteriorated: gross
financial result decreased by approximately 3%, while net financial result declined by approximately
6.5%. The share of costs of salaries and benefits in overall costs in 2013 amounted to approximately
23.1% (about 0.2 p.p. less than in the previous year). The downward trend concerning the share of
salaries in overall costs incurred by enterprises persists since 2009.87
In constant prices, including entities employing up to 9 persons.
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Information on the social and economic condition of the country in 2014, p. 65.
85 Ibidem, p. 65.
86 Ibidem, p. 69.
87 Internet Economic Information System (INSIGOS) of the Ministry of Economy; the data provided pertains to entities
employing more than 9 persons.
83
84
215
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
12.6. General issues affecting the services sector
The growth of the services sector, which has been observed in Poland for many years now, is reflected
in figures describing the economic activities of business entities operating in the services sector. Over
the recent years, the importance of this sector for the entire Polish economy has grown significantly.
The economic situation in the previous year had a positive impact on the sector of both market and nonmarket services – the gross value added in both sectors increased compared to the previous year. In
both cases, the said index exceeded the average growth of the value added in the entire economy. Both
the trade and repair section as well as the transportation and storage section recorded an increase in
total operating revenues and costs, with costs growing at a faster rate than revenues in the case of
transportation. In this case, the net financial result has deteriorated.
Year 2014 was yet another year during which the level of debt in the trade and services sector has
increased. The most dynamic debt increase was recorded in the information and communication section
(up by 21.8%) as well as healthcare and social work activities section (up by 19.1%). Trade and
transport enterprises increased their level of debt by 4.4% and 10.9%, respectively. At the same time,
some sections substantially curbed their investment expenditures (for example, the financial and
insurance activities section and entities classified into the other service activities section reduced their
expenditures by roughly 25%). Trade companies limited investment expenditures by about 1%, while
transport companies increased those expenditures by more than 12%.
According to reports of the Conference of Financial Companies (KPF) and the National Debt Register
(KRD), the problem of overdue receivables in 2014 affected approximately 90% of all enterprises –
including enterprises operating in the services sector. Data provided by the Economic Data Office (BIG),
on the other hand, indicate that for about 80% of all service sector enterprises this problem formed a
substantial barrier to the pursuit of their activities.
In light of the Receivables portfolio of Polish companies reports prepared by the Conference of Financial
Companies (KPF), the situation of the services sector in terms of delayed payments, excluding financial
activities and telecommunication services, was particularly unfavourable compared to other sectors. A
worse situation in this regard was observed only in the construction industry. As indicated in the
Economic Data Office (BIG) Report for April 2014 – no more than 25% of receivables of SME sector
entities is paid in a timely manner. The construction and transport industries are particularly exposed to
delays in payment. In addition, the report indicates a slight increase in the value of overdue receivables
(by nearly 10 p.p. for the SME sector).
The Polish trade sector is characterised by a very large number of retail outlets compared to the
majority of the EU countries. Despite a discernible tendency to reduce the number of retail outlets, 354
thousand such outlets were operating at the end of 2013.88 The forms of trade on the domestic market
are gradually changing – the number of stores with a floor space of over 1,000 m2 is rising, while the
number of small stores declines. In addition, the share of stores controlled by foreign entities is growing
– at present, they control nearly 1/3 of all modern retail space in Poland. The Polish market is
characterised by discount stores which clearly dominate over other forms of modern trade (hyper- and
supermarkets).
Knowledge-based economy requires a competitive services sector. Like in the previous years, the
Polish services sector demonstrates a low level of innovativeness, both compared to EU Member States
88
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Internal Trade 2013.
216
and the Polish industry.89 The services sector spends only 57% of the industrial sector spending on
innovation. In 2013, the level of innovation spending in the services sector within the surveyed group of
sections was estimated at PLN 12 billion, i.e. down by more than 31% compared to the previous year),
with the spending of enterprises which employ more than 49 persons accounting for approximately 81%
of all expenditures on innovation.
The most substantial part of expenditure was incurred on fixed capital formation (PLN 4.5 billion, i.e.
42.4% of all innovation spending) and research and development activities (PLN 2.7 billion, i.e. 23% of
all innovation spending). Among enterprises operating in the services sector, the highest expenditure on
innovation in 2014 was incurred by entities operating in the Information and communication section
(nearly half of all innovation spending).
Similarly as in the previous year, the main source of financing for innovation activities in 2013 were own
funds of enterprises (79.7% of all spending in the services sector). On the other hand, the most rarely
used source of financing for innovation activities were state budget funds. In addition, from 2009
onwards enterprises operating the services sector did not utilise monies from the risk capital funds to
finance their own innovation activities.
The insufficient level of innovation in service companies negatively affects their competitive position.
Price competition is still being used to gain foreign customers. However, Polish innovative solutions are
being slowly introduced, while the effective sale of own innovative solutions is pursued more and more
often. In 2013, studies conducted by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) indicated that services
(sections G-U) represented 63.6% of net revenues from the sale of products in entities outside the
manufacturing section. The share of net revenues from the sale of products within types of activities
classified under knowledge-based services in overall services totalled 58.5%, while in less knowledgeintensive services – 41.5%. Revenues from the sale of high-technology services accounted for 14.7%,
while revenues from the sale of knowledge-based market services (excluding financial services)
represented 11.4%.
Entities operating within division 62 – Activities related to software and IT consultancy and related
activities – represented the biggest share in the overall number of entities providing high-technology
services in 2013 (51.5% of all entities) Poland is gradually becoming the leader of IT solutions, as
evidenced, inter alia, by the growing number of foreign high-tech companies which locate their
SSC/BPO in Poland, but also by the growing number of domestic companies which are awarded foreign
contracts and create key actors on international markets.
89
Central Statistical Office (GUS), Science and Technology, 2013.
217
13.
ENTERPRISES
13.1. Ownership structure and transformation of state-owned
enterprises
The aim of the economic transformation process initiated at the beginning of the 1990s was to adjust
the economy to market conditions, with the dominating role to be played by the private sector since it
was the private sector which was perceived as more efficient, flexible and able to live up to demanding
competitive conditions more effectively. Changes in the economic structure took place through the
privatisation of state enterprises and creation of new private economic entities. The growth in the
number of private entities in the overall number of enterprises was accompanied by an increasing share
of the private sector in the national economy. In the mid-1990s, this sector attained the dominant
position in the economy. Currently, the share of the private sector in the generation of gross value
added as well as in the total number of employed individuals reaches 80%, in export and import
exceeds 80%, in manufacturing reaches nearly 90%, while in construction exceeds 98%. The share of
the private sector in investment expenditures and gross fixed assets is slightly lower.
Table 75 Share of the private sector in the basic categories of the economy (in percentages)
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
71.0
75.6
77.4
77.5
77.2
78.0
79.3
80.1
Gross value added
x
73.6
76.2
76.1
76.4
77.2
77.6
78.0
Employees (annual average)
65.2
65.1
65.5
59.6
56.5
55.1
57.9
61.7
Investment expenditures
48.6
58.6
60.3
60.5
60.4
60.3
61.7
61.3
Gross fixed assets
71.3
82.0
84.1
84.6
84.9
85.9
87.4
88.5
Industrial production
95.9
96.6
98.2
98.5
98.8
98.7
98.7
98.5
Construction production
83.6
87.4
83.5
82.2
80.6
81.8
81.1
x
Exports
84.2
90.3
84.7
83.9
83.7
83.3
81.9
x
Imports
Source: Statistical Yearbooks and Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), calculations by the Strategy and
Analyses Department, Ministry of Economy.
13.1.1.
Ownership transformation in state-owned enterprises90
Due to the expiry of the Privatisation plan for the years 2012-2013, in 2014 the Ministry of Treasury
developed Priorities in the management of the portfolio of entities supervised by the Minister of Treasury
up to 2015. This document contains a description of targeted actions of the Minister of Treasury with
regard to the management of entities supervised thereby.
This chapter uses fragments of studies prepared by the Ministry of Treasury entitled Assessment of the course of
privatisation of Treasury assets in 2014 and Privatisation lines for Treasury assets in 2015. In 2015, the Central Statistical
Office (GUS) published studies titled Privatisation of state-owned enterprises in 2014. In relation to the above, figures
provided have been sourced from the study entitled The course of privatisation processes in state-owned enterprises as at
31.12.2014, prepared by the Ministry of Treasury. The above-mentioned figures slightly differ from information previously
published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
90
219
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Box 20 Priorities in the management of the portfolio of entities supervised by the Minister of Treasury up
to 2015
In accordance with this document, one of the primary actions to be undertaken by the Minister of Treasury is to
build the value of assets and optimize resources. After more than two decades of transformation, there has been
a significant reduction in the number of entities supervised by the State Treasury. Therefore, it became necessary
to determine a new role for the Minister of Treasury, arising from property rights which they may exercise. The
Minister of Treasury will successively implement ownership transformation processes, whereas due to a smaller
number of companies under supervision, privatisation is currently treated as a tool equivalent to other types of
ownership changes.
As regards the management of entities remaining under the supervision of the Minister of Treasury, the priority is
to build their long-term value, inter alia, by ensuring the highest standards of supervision, creating business
synergies and development strategies as a result of cooperation between supervisory boards, management
boards and employees.
The achievement of growth in the value of state-owned companies was facilitated by decisions to acquire capital
to develop and increase competitiveness, including by supporting investment policies as well as initiating and
promoting cooperation between companies and the scientific and research community. The use of assets through
the implementation of joint projects as well as analysis and optimisation of organisational structures of companies
and capital groups was also important.
Ownership transformations performed in 2014 constituted the continued efforts to organise State
Treasury assets and were aimed at limiting the role of State Treasury in those entities in which
ownership supervision by state administration authorities is not necessary.
As at the end of 2014, 562 companies were under the supervision of the Minister of Treasury, including
233 companies pursuing business activity (excluding 100 companies with employee shares only).
Assets under the supervision of the Minister of Treasury include both large capital groups and
companies from the SME sector with a highly diversified economic and financial standing and asset
structure.
The document entitled "Privatisation lines for Treasury assets in 2014" indicates that the efficiency of
pursued privatisation objectives is largely dependent on the economic environment both on domestic
and foreign markets. When analysing privatisation processes, it is necessary to take account of the
impact of the macroeconomic environment on the interest expressed by potential investors in the
privatisation offer of the State Treasury and, indirectly, on the value of privatised entities.
Year 2014 was a good year for the Polish economy. In a difficult period of stagnation and public finance
debt crisis in Europe, Poland was among the leaders in economic growth.
Apart from external factors, the course of ownership transformation processes was significantly affected
by external factors, such as: the condition of entities to be transformed, the need to conduct
restructuring processes, the level of interest from potential investors and the attractiveness of the
industry. In addition, a substantial group of companies under ownership supervision are companies in
which the State Treasury holds only a negligible share (i.e. less than 10%), the disposal of which is
significantly limited when the majority shareholder does not wish to purchase those shares.
The effective performance of privatisation processes is also influenced by the situation on capital
markets, where the responses to changes in the economic situation are both the most rapid and readily
apparent.
Privatisation processes played a significant role in the development of the Polish capital market. For
many years, public offers of companies in which the State Treasury holds shares have significantly
220
contributed to the increase in the interest of institutional and individual investors in the presence on the
Polish stock exchange. An efficient and strong capital market is one of the basic elements necessary for
the development of companies.
The stock exchange constitutes an important mechanism in the financing of Polish economy. Therefore,
enterprises often take advantage of this possibility. In 2014, 28 companies made their debut on the
Warsaw Stock Exchange SA. As at the end of the year, 471 companies were listed on the Warsaw
Stock Exchange, including 51 foreign companies. Throughout the whole year 2014, the WIG index
which comprises all companies listed on the main trading floor increased by 0.28%, while the value of
the capitalisation of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange totalled PLN 591.2 billion.
The performance of ownership transformation processes benefits both companies themselves and the
economy as a whole. The most important benefits include:
1. the establishment of an effective and flexible private sector;
2. a decreased role of the state in the economy;
3. an increase in budget revenues (from the sale of entities and taxes paid thereby afterwards);
4. an increase in the effectiveness of entities;
5. a higher quality of goods and services, and increased sensitivity of the economy to consumer
decisions;
6. attracting new investments and support for new projects;
7. increased competitiveness.
In 2014, blocks of shares of three companies in which the State Treasury holds shares have been sold
on the stock exchange. In two cases, i.e. Ciech SA and Lubelski Węgiel "Bogdanka SA", the State
Treasury completely exited the shareholding structure, while in the case of PGE Polska Grupa
Energetyczna SA, the Minister of Treasury disposed of 0.32% of shares amounting to more than PLN
121.5 million. In total, State Treasury revenues from the privatisation through the stock exchange
amounted to PLN 876.8 million.
In 2014, privatisation agreements were signed for 52 companies in which the State Treasury holds
shares, while revenues from the OTC privatisation amounted to PLN 126.9 million. In the case of 25
entities, privatisation processes ended in withdrawal from their performance. The reasons for ending the
process were primarily the lack of interest from potential investors and unsatisfactory conditions
proposed by tenderers. Actions aimed at the performance of the most suitable ownership transformation
for a given company are undertaken once again upon the analysis of factors hindering the
implementation of ownership changes that are favourable for the company and determination of the
optimal path for its further development.
13.1.2.
Ownership transformation process
Ownership transformation in state-owned enterprises can occur in three ways:
 commercialisation, i.e. transformation of an enterprise into a company wholly owned by the State
Treasury. The next phase of transformation is an indirect (capital) privatisation;
 direct privatisation;
 liquidation for economic reasons.
The choice of ownership transformation method depends on the size of a given enterprise, its economic
situation, type of economic activities performed as well as the strategic importance of the enterprise to
the state economy. Commercialisation is the preferred form of ownership transformation for mining and
221
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
quarrying companies, manufacturing companies as well as companies that generate and supply
electricity, gas, steam and hot water. Construction companies, companies active in the field of trade and
repair of motor vehicles as well as transport companies would in most cases be privatised directly.
In Poland, privatisation processes have been carried out since the beginning of the transformation
period. Until the end of 2014, 6,002 state enterprises were subject to ownership transformation. Most
enterprises underwent ownership transformation in the initial transformation period (3,619 enterprises in
the years 1990-1995 and 1,597 in the years 1996-2000). Since 2000, nearly 87% of all entities have
been subjected to ownership transformation processes. In 2014, 2 enterprises underwent ownership
transformation.
Entities subject to direct privatisation represented 38.5%, subject to liquidation – 32.3%, and
commercialised – 29.2%.
From the beginning of the transformation period through 2014, revenues from privatisation exceeded
PLN 150 billion. The highest revenues were generated in the 1996-2000 and 2006-2010 periods,
accounting for approx. 38% and approx. 22% of total privatisation revenues, respectively.
Table 76 Number of enterprises encompassed by ownership transformation processes* and revenues
from privatisation in 1990-2014
State-owned companies subject to ownership transformation
of which:
Total
commercialisation
direct privatisation winding up
Revenues
from
privatisation
in PLN bn
1990-2014, of which:
6,002
1,755
2,308
1,939
152.7
1990-1995
3,619
1,062
1,174
1,383
5.7
1996-2000
1,597
444
838
315
57.9
2001-2005
499
72
241
186
27.9
2006-2010
260
165
51
44
33.6
2011-2014, of which:
27
12
4
11
27.6
2011
17
10
3
4
13.1
2012
3
0
1
2
9.1
2013
5
1
0
4
4.4
2014
2
1
0
1
1.0
*excluding state-owned companies of the agricultural economy incorporated into the Resource of Agricultural Property of the
State Treasury.
Source: Ownership transformation of state-owned enterprises as at 31.12.2014 Ministry of Treasury.
Commercialisation and indirect (capital) privatisation
Commercialisation consists in the transformation of an enterprise into a joint stock company or a limited
liability company; the next stage is the disposal of shares or stocks held by the State Treasury. This
stage is referred to as ‘indirect privatisation’. Until the end of 2014, 1,755 state-owned enterprises were
commercialised. 543 of them were privatised indirectly (including 5 in 2014).
Direct privatisation
This type of privatisation is characterised by a far greater efficiency than indirect privatisation. Direct
privatisation may be effected using three distinct methods: the sale of an enterprise, the contribution of
assets of the enterprise into a business partnership, or the leasing of the enterprise. In the years 19902014, 2,308 state-owned enterprises were subject to direct privatisation (including none in 2014).
Liquidation of companies for economic reasons
This is a procedure used in the case of a poor economic situation of enterprises which is unlikely to
improve. Liquidation is a time-consuming process. In the years 1990-2014, there were 1,939 companies
222
in liquidation; the liquidation process was completed with respect to 1,168 (60.2%) of those companies.
In 2014, 1 enterprise was put into liquidation.
13.1.3.
Revenues from privatisation and budgetary revenues from dividends
The Privatisation lines for Treasury assets in 2014 provided that revenues from privatisation should
reach the amount of PLN 3.7 billion. Actual revenues amounted to PLN 1,004 million, i.e. 27.1% of the
planned revenues.
Revenues generated in 2014 were allocated as follows:
 PLN 351.4 million – state budget;
 PLN 150.5 million – Enterprise Restructuring Fund;
 PLN 3.0 million – Reprivatisation Fund;
 PLN 400.3 million – Demographic Reserve Fund;
 PLN 20.1 million – State Treasury Fund;
 PLN 20.1 million – Polish Science and Technology Fund;
 PLN 3.5 million – a separate account of the Minister of Labour and Social Policy;
 PLN 54.8 million – surety and guarantee provisions of the State Treasury.
Failure to achieve the planned level of revenues was connected, inter alia, with withdrawal from the
implementation of certain stock exchange projects, such as the sale of shares of Polski Holding
Nieruchomości SA and the increase of the share capital of PIR SA through the contribution of 3.18% of
shares in PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (amounting to PLN 1.2 billion) under the Polish
Investments Programme, thus allocating potential revenues from the disposal of shares to the
performance of the Programme. Failure to implement industry privatisation projects due to lack of
interest from potential investors or unfavourable conditions proposed by tenderers also contributed to
the failure to achieve the planned level of revenues.
Revenues from dividends, which had been planned at the level of PLN 4.6 billion, actually amounted to
PLN 3,844 million (83.6% of the planned value). It is necessary to note that pursuant to the Resolution
of the Ordinary General Meeting of PZU SA, adopted taking into account the Polish Financial
Supervision Authority's (PFSA) recommendations, dividend from profit in 2013 was disbursed in two
equal tranches. The first tranche in the amount of PLN 516.5 million was disbursed in October 2014,
while the second – in January 2015 (it will be recognised in budget revenues for 2015). In addition, each
year, the reason for larger or smaller differences between the level of planned and actually disbursed
dividend may be the final financial result achieved, the need to take investment needs into account,
other economic and financial circumstances or – in the case of the financial sector – the PFSA
recommendations.
13.1.4.
Ownership transformations in 2015
In August 2014, the Minister of Treasury signed the document entitled Privatisation lines for Treasury
assets in 2015. Revenues from privatisation were estimated at PLN 1.2 billion, while the income from
dividends from companies supervised by the Minister of Treasury totalled PLN 4.5 billion.
The economic transformation process has been under way in Poland for 25 years. Therefore, assets
remaining at the disposal of State Treasury that may be subjected to ownership transformations are
decreasing with each passing year. Industries in which companies supervised by the Minister of
Treasury operate are not as attractive for potential investors as even several years ago. The modes and
223
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
deadlines for the implementation of specific projects will be determined so that the achieved results are
the most favourable for both companies and state budget. In order to effectively manage Treasury
assets, actions aimed at strengthening and professionalising ownership supervision will be continued in
2015. This will allow to build the value of companies while also taking the interests of
stakeholders/partners into account, and – as regards companies of key importance – to ensure the
achievement of revenues at a level specified by the state.
From about 80 entities to be transformed in 2015, more than 70% represents companies in which the
State Treasury holds minority shares, of which 75% constitute companies in which the State Treasury
holds a negligible share, i.e. less than 10%. Some of the planned projects may be delayed in time due
to reasons out of the seller's control. In the case of companies in which the State Treasury holds
negligible shares, privatisation activities are largely dependent on the decision of majority shareholders
or partners, which significantly limits the possibility of the disposal of shares.
The privatisation policy will also be influenced by the continuation of the Polish Investments Programme,
the main objective of which is the establishment of a tool utilising the potential of Treasury assets, thus
enabling contribution to large infrastructural projects. The current approach to revenues from
privatisation will change. Revenues from the sale of shares of certain companies in which the State
Treasury holds shares, which according to plans developed to date were planned to be privatised, may
be allocated for the implementation of the Programme.
The privatisation processes in 2015 will be carried out with consideration for the provisions contained in
the industrial policies and programmes (and their updates) adopted by the Council of Ministers, which
consider the tenets of Poland's policy towards the industry and define the rules and mode of share
disposal in the companies of importance to a given sector.
As part of promotion of the privatisation processes in 2015, there are activities planned in the following
areas:
1. activities aimed directly at investors through the implementation of an educational project promoting
investments on the stock exchange, titled "Civic Shareholding, Informed Investing", with added
measures raising standards for investor relations in companies listed on the stock exchange;
2. information activities directed at journalists, pertaining to ownership transformations and activities
building the value of Treasury assets, in particular investment projects and innovative state-owned
companies as well as consolidation processes;
3. activities connected with redesigning the website in order to improve structure transparency, so as
to facilitate access to published content. The substantive content will be updated and expanded,
with particular focus on information in the area of ownership transformations and SME management
activities.
13.1.5.
Small business development
In 2014, the number of new enterprises registered in the REGON system amounted to 357 thousand
(2% less than in 2013). Sole traders constituted the largest group among the newly established entities
(81% of their total number). The number of entities removed from the REGON register amounted to 304
thousand in 2014, i.e. 13% more than in the previous year.
224
Chart 54 Newly registered and deregistered entities in the national economy under the REGON system
thous.
450
National economy entities:
newly registered
deleted
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Structural changes in groups of entities in the national economy, 2014, Central Statistical Office (GUS), Warsaw.
The fastest growth in the number of newly registered entities was recorded in the Other service activities
and Transportation and storage sections. A smaller number of entities initiated activity in the Electricity
generation and supply and Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
sections. Significant differences were also observed in the dynamics pertaining to the number of newly
established entities between individual voivodeships, with growth recorded in: Podlaskie, Małopolskie
and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships. In Pomorskie voivodeship, the number of new enterprises was
the same as in 2013, while in other voivodeships this value declined (the largest drop in the number of
newly established companies was observed in Dolnośląskie, Opolskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie and
Świętokrzyskie voivodeships).
Situation of micro-enterprises compared to other companies in 2013
In 2013, the number of active enterprises decreased compared to 2012 from 1,795 thousand to 1,771
thousand, which was a result of the decrease in the number of micro-enterprises and medium-sized
companies. On the other hand, the number of small companies increased by nearly 2 thousand.
In 2013, active enterprises achieved revenues amounting to PLN 3,793 billion, which marks a growth of
nearly PLN 30 billion compared to 2012. Costs incurred by enterprises grew by only PLN 7 billion
compared to the previous year, reaching the level of PLN 3,549 billion. As a result, gross profits of
enterprises amounted to PLN 294 billion in total, which is more than in the previous year. Average
revenues per one entity in 2013 amounted to PLN 2.14 million (compared to PLN 2.09 million in 2012).
Capital expenditures in 2013 were PLN 7 billion higher compared to 2012, amounting to PLN 162.2
billion. More than half of total expenditures were incurred by companies with more than 249 employees.
At the end of 2013, the number of employed people amounted to 8.9 million, i.e. less than in the
previous year. The number of employed people decreased in the group of small and medium-sized
enterprises, and increased in the group of large companies.
Average monthly salary per one person employed in active enterprises in 2013 amounted to PLN 3,761
and was PLN 130 higher than in 2012. Salaries were increasing at the same rate in all groups of
companies (micro, small, medium-sized and large companies).
225
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 77 Basic features of the micro-enterprises sector in years 2011-2013
2011
Number of enterprises (in thous.)
1,710.6
Number of employees (in thous.)
3,508
Average number of employees (in thous.)
1,303
Average monthly payment per 1 employee (in PLN)
2,059
Investment expenditures (in PLN million)
28.3
Total revenues (in PLN million)
760.9
Total costs (in PLN million)
664.6
Source: Activity of non-financial enterprises in 2013, Central Statistical Office (GUS), Warsaw.
2012
1,719.2
3,459
1,269
2,172
24.4
762.4
674.5
2013
1,693.8
3.371
1,203
2,210
26.4
779.7
680.7
Situation of small enterprises established in 201391
The number of enterprises registered in 2013 and employing up to 49 persons amounted to 268.4
thousand, i.e. declined by slightly more than 10 thousand compared to 2012.
The survival rate of newly established enterprises92 (which may, to a certain extent, be considered a
measure of the ease of running a business) in 2014 was 74.0% and recorded a negligible decrease
The highest survival rate was recorded in the following sections: Healthcare and social work activities
(88.1%), Information and communication (85.9%), Real estate activities (84.8%), and Other service
activities (83.3%). Conversely, enterprises in the accommodation and food service activities and
financial and insurance activities sections encountered the greatest difficulties in terms of survival on the
market, with a survival rate amounting to 58.2% and 57.9%, respectively.
Chart 55 The structure of newly established enterprises in 2013
Industry
5.0%
3.0%
0.8%
5.0%
Construction
9.1%
Trade and repair
15.2%
5.2%
Finance
11.9%
1.1%
1.7%
Administration
Education
5.0%
3.6%
28.1%
5.4%
Health care
Other service activities
Source: Conditions for the establishment and operation of Polish companies set up in 2007–2013. Central Statistical Office
(GUS), Warsaw.
A total of 396.4 thousand individuals worked in enterprises established in 2013 and active in 2014 (i.e.
50 thousand less than in the previous year). The trade, industrial and construction enterprises
accounted for the biggest share of the above number (23.3%, 14.4%, and 12.8%, respectively).
Conditions for the establishment and operation of Polish companies set up in the years 2009-2013 and their development
perspectives. Central Statistical Office (GUS), Warsaw.
92 Share of enterprises which continue to pursue their business activities within a year following the registration thereof.
91
226
Table 78 Newly established enterprises in Poland in years 2005-2013
Number of enterprises active
in the following year
Survival rate (%)
(thousand)
2005
211.1
142.8
67.6
2006
241.4
160.6
66.5
2007
273.6
193.3
70.7
2008
294.3
224.8
76.4
2009
275.3
212.0
77.0
2010
286.2
222.5
77.8
2011
274.4
210.1
76.6
2012
278.7
212.8
76.4
2013
268.4
198.7
74.0
Source: Conditions for the establishment and operation as well as development prospects for Polish companies set up in
2007–2013. Central Statistical Office (GUS), Warsaw.
Year
Number of newly established
enterprises (thousand)
13.2. Financial standing of enterprises93
13.2.1.
Revenues, costs and results on individual types of activities
Total operating revenues in 2013 amounted to PLN 2,996 billion and were 2.7% higher compared to
2013 (a year earlier, revenues increased by 0.6%). The costs of revenues (PLN 2,860 billion) grew by
2.8%. The financial result on business activities amounted to PLN 136.1 billion, i.e. 1.6% more than in
2013.
Revenues from sales of products, goods and materials are the dominant component of total revenues.
In 2014, they amounted to PLN 2,889 billion and grew by 2.7%, compared to a 1.0% increase in the
previous year. The costs of revenues increased by 2.4%. The result on sales (PLN 134.4 billion) was
higher by 8.8%.
Other operating revenues (PLN 53.6 billion) decreased by 6.3% and their costs increased by 0.2%. As a
consequence, the result decreased to PLN 9.8 billion (down by 27.4%).
Revenues from financial activities (PLN 53.5 billion) increased by 12.9%, while the costs thereof
increased by 22.2%. Financial activities generated a loss in the amount of PLN 8.1 billion, i.e. nearly
three times higher than in the previous year.
Table 79 Revenues, costs and results by types of activities, and gross and net results in the years 2013
and 2014 (PLN billion)
2013
2014
Revenues
Costs Result Revenues
Costs Result
Sales of goods and materials
2,812.0 2,688.5 123.5
2,888.6 2,754.2 134.4
Other operating activities
57.2
43.7
13.5
53.6
43.8
9.8
Financial activities
47.4
50.4
-3.0
53.5
61.6
-8.1
TOTAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
2,916.6 2,782.6 134.0
2,995.7 2,859.6 136.1
Extraordinary events result
x
x
0.1
x
x
0.2
Gross financial result
x
x 134.1
x
x 136.3
Net financial result
x
x 114.8
x
x 115.0
Source: F-01 financial statements from Insigos (Ministry of Economy) database as well as calculations by the Strategy and
Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
93
Information presented in this Chapter refers to economic operators employing more than 9 persons.
227
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The increase in total operating revenues in 2014 by PLN 79.1 billion resulted mainly from increased
revenues from sales (up by PLN 76.6 billion) and partially from financial activities (up by PLN 6.1 billion).
A decrease in revenues was recorded in other operating activities (down by PLN 3.6 billion).
The increased financial result on business activities by PLN 2.1 billion was solely the consequence of
the increase in the result on other operating activities (up by PLN 10.9 billion). The positive result on
operating activities was lower by PLN 3.7 billion, while the result on financial activities decreased further
by PLN 5.1 billion.
The gross financial result (PLN 136.3 billion) increased by 1.6%, while the associated charges
amounted to PLN 21.3 billion. The share of charges in the gross result increased from 14.4% in 2013 to
15.6%.
The net financial result amounted to PLN 115.0 billion (up by 0.2%).
Table 80 Changes in revenues and results in 2014 (in comparison with 2013), in PLN billion
1
2013
2014
2
3
Change
PLN billion
4
%
5
Change in revenues
Revenues from sales
2,812.0
2,888.6
76.6
2.7
Other operating revenues
57.2
53.6
-3.6
-6.3
Financial revenues
47.4
53.5
6.1
12.9
TOTAL OPERATING REVENUES
2,916.6
2,995.7
79.1
2.7
Change in result
Result on sales
123.5
134.4
10.9
8.8
Result on other operating activities
13.5
9.8
-3.7
-27.4
Result on financial activities
-3.0
-8.1
-5.1
x
RESULT ON BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
134.0
136.1
2.1
1.6
Result on extraordinary events
0.1
0.2
0.1
100.0
134.1
136.3
2.2
1.6
Net financial result
114.8
115.0
0.2
0.2
Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy
Chart 56 Financial result on business activities as well as gross and net financial results in the years
2013 and 2014 (PLN billion)
bn PLN 140
135
134.0
136.1
134.1
136.3
130
125
120
115.0
114.8
115
110
105
100
Economic activity
Gross
2013
Net
2014
Source: F-01 financial statements from Insigos (Ministry of Economy) database.
228
The return on sales increased to 4.7%, gross profit margin remained unchanged (4.6%), while net profit
margin declined to 3.8%.
Chart 57 Profitability ratios in the years 2013 and 2014 (in %)
% 5.0
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.5
3.0
Sales
Gross
2013
Net
2014
Source: F-01 financial statements from Insigos (Ministry of Economy) database.
13.2.2.
Capital expenditures94 and self-financing opportunities
Following a slight increase in capital expenditure in 2013 (by 3.5%), investment growth rate accelerated
significantly in 2014 to the level of 13.2%.
The investment growth rate was higher than both investment surplus growth rate 95 and growth rate of
disposable funds of business entities and resulted in a decrease in potential possibilities of selffinancing. The investment surplus increased to PLN 239.9 billion (up by 4.9%), while its relation to
incurred expenditure amounted to 1.64, compared to 1.77 in 2013. The disposable funds of enterprises
(short-term investments) increased to PLN 280.2 billion (up by 11.6%), while their relation to incurred
expenditure decreased slightly (down from 1.94 in 2013 to 1.92 in 2014).
13.2.3.
Debt, receivables, financial liquidity
As at the end of 2014, debt amounted to PLN 1,087.2 billion, (i.e. grew by 7.8%). The existing debt
structure has improved and the share of long-term debt grew from 34.4% to 38.2%.
Long-term debt amounted to PLN 415.0 billion, i.e. grew by 19.7%. Credit and loan liabilities dominated
in this debt (PLN 290.8 billion), accounting for 70.1% of the total long-term debt, as in the previous year.
Short-term debt increased as well: from PLN 662.4 billion to PLN 672.2 billion (up by 1.5%). Liabilities
related to supply and services dominated in this debt (PLN 332.2 billion), accounting for 50.2% thereof.
Taxes, duties and insurance liabilities amounted to PLN 49.6 billion and accounted for 7.5% of total
short-term debt.
In this Chapter, capital expenditure is presented in current prices, including expenditure related to the purchase of used
fixed assets.
95 For the purposes of this Report, investment surplus is defined as the total of net profit (profit, not result) and depreciation.
94
229
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The potential possibilities to repay the debt with sales revenues decreased because the revenue growth
rate (2.7%) lagged behind the debt growth rate (7.8%). In 2013, the debt could have been repaid with
sales revenues made in 129.2 days. In 2014, it would have been 135.5 days.
Short-term receivables as at the end of 2014 amounted to PLN 442.7 billion (i.e. grew by 4.2%). Shortterm supply and services liabilities (PLN 364.6 billion) accounted for 82.4% of all short-term receivables.
All financial liquidity rations experienced an increase: 1 st degree ratio from 38% to 42%, 2nd degree ratio
from 102% to 108%, and 3rd degree ratio from 145% to 152%. Financial liquidity ratios exceeded the
bottom-line of the recommended bracket96.
13.2.4.
Financial situation in sections of the economy
Total industry
In 2014, total operating revenues in the industry amounted to PLN 1,387.0 billion (i.e. increased by
1.5%). The costs of those revenues increased by 1.9%. The result on business activities amounted to
PLN 74.9 billion, i.e. decreased by 4.5%.
Revenues from the sale of products, goods and materials (PLN 1,335.6 billion) increased by 1.0%, while
the costs thereof increased by 1.1%. The result on sales increased to PLN 74.8 billion (i.e. grew by
0.5%).
Changes in results from other types of activities pursued by enterprises were multi-directional. The
financial result for other operating activities increased from PLN 2.1 billion to PLN 2.5 billion. The result
on financial operations was negative (PLN 2.4 billion), compared to the positive result (PLN 1.9 billion)
in the previous year.
The result on business activities amounted to PLN 74.9 billion and was 4.5% lower compared to 2013.
The total absolute decrease in the result on business activities amounted to PLN 3.5 billion; the
decrease was mainly the result of an unfavourable balance of financial activities. Financial activities
generated a loss in the amount of PLN 4.3 billion. Other types of activities recorded growths: result on
basic activities by PLN 0.4 billion and result on other operating activities by PLN 0.4 billion as well. The
gross financial result (PLN 75.1 billion) decreased by 4.3%, while the net result (PLN 64.6 billion)
declined by 4.0%. The rate of return on sales remained at the same level as in the previous year (i.e.
5.6%). The other two ratios, however, decreased: gross profit margin dropped from 5.7% to 5.4%, while
net profit margin declined from 4.9% to 4.7%.
Capital expenditure (PLN 82.3 billion) increased by 16.6%, while the investment surplus (PLN 133.0
billion) – by 5.4%. The potential investment self-financing opportunities, i.e. the relation of investment
surplus to expenditure, decreased from 1.79 to 1.62.
Debt increased, reaching PLN 460.8 billion (up by 8.4%). At the same time, the debt structure improved:
the share of long-term liabilities increased from 31.5% to 35.4%. The potential period of debt repayment
with sales revenues has increased (from 115.8 days to 124.2 days). Short-term receivables (PLN 201.2
billion) grew by 3.9%, while short-term investments (PLN 113.6 billion) by 13.3%.
Reference values for the 1st degree liquidity ratio are values exceeding 20%, for the 2nd degree liquidity ratio – between
100% and 120%, and for the 3rd degree liquidity ratio – between 120% and 200%. Depending on the nature of individual
sectors, these ratios may be different than those defined by general rules.
96
230
Financial liquidity ratios experienced an increase: 1st degree ratio from 34% to 38% and 2nd degree ratio
from 101% to 106%.
Industry sections
The growth of total operating revenues was recorded in two sections in total: manufacturing (up by
2.5%) and water supply, sewerage and waste management (up by 1.7%). Revenues dropped in two
sections: in mining and quarrying (down by 5.7%) and electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation
and supply (down by 1.5%).
The only section to record a higher growth rate of total operating revenues than costs was the
electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply section. In other sections, this relation was
unfavourable.
The only section which recorded an increase in the result on business activities was the electricity, gas,
steam and hot water generation and supply (up by 21.4%). In the remaining sections, the said result
recorded a decrease: by 7.0% in manufacturing, by 68.8% in mining and quarrying, and by 32.1% in
water supply, sewerage and waste management.
The growth of revenues from sales – just like the growth of total operating revenues – was recorded in
two sections in total: manufacturing (up by 2.8%) and water supply, sewerage and waste management
(up by 5.4%). The result on sales also grew in those sections (by 7.0% and 7.7%, respectively). For
mining the result decreased by 9.0%, while for electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and
supply the decrease amounted to 6.2%. The decline in revenues was accompanied by a drop in the
result on sales by 63.6% and 2.9%, respectively.
The mining and quarrying as well as electricity, gas, steam and hot water generation and supply
sections observed an improvement in the result on other operating activities. In the first of the abovementioned sections, the positive financial result increased by 1/3, while in the second the negative result
decreased by approximately 55%. In manufacturing, the positive result declined by 30%, while in water
supply, sewerage and waste management by approximately 56%.
Similarly to 2013, a positive result on financial operations was only achieved in electricity, gas, steam
and hot water generation and supply (PLN 8.2 billion) and was 64% higher than in the previous year.
Results in other sections were negative. For water supply, sewerage and waste management, however,
the loss on financial operations was equal to the loss observed in 2013, while in manufacturing and
mining and quarrying sections the loss has increased substantially (twofold in the first section and by
four times in the second).
The only section to record a growth in the gross financial result (by 21.4%) was the electricity, gas,
steam and hot water generation and supply section. In the remaining three sections, positive results
have declined: by approximately 70% in mining and quarrying, by 6.4% in manufacturing, and by 32.1%
in water supply, sewerage and waste management.
Capital expenditure has increased in all industry sections, with the biggest increase observed in water
supply, sewerage and waste management (up by 30.2%). For electricity, gas, steam and hot water
generation and supply the increase amounted to 17.8%, for manufacturing – 16.2%, while for mining
and quarrying – 5.4%.
231
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Total debt increased in all sections. The only section in which the period of potential possibility to repay
the debt with sales revenues shortened was the water supply, sewerage and waste management
section. Short-term receivables declined only in mining and quarrying.
An increase in three financial liquidity indicators was observed for manufacturing and electricity, gas,
steam and hot water generation and supply. In the remaining two sections all financial liquidity
indicators declined.
Chart 58 Share of industry sections in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure and industry debt
level in 2014 (in %)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Revenues
Investments
Debt
Section B
Section C
Section D
Section E
Section D – generation and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water,
Section E – water supply, sewage and waste management, remediation measures.
Non-industrial sections in total
In 2014, total operating revenues in non-industrial sections amounted to PLN 1,608.7 billion (i.e.
increased by 3.8%). The costs of revenues increased by 3.5%. The result on business activities
amounted to PLN 61.2 billion, i.e. decreased by 10.1%.
Revenues from the sale of products, goods and materials (PLN 1,553.0 billion) increased by 2.9%, while
the costs thereof increased by 2.3%. The sales result increased to PLN 59.6 billion (i.e. by 21.4%).
Changes in results from other types of activities pursued by enterprises were worse compared to those
achieved in 2013. The positive result on other operating activities decreased from PLN 11.4 billion to
PLN 7.3 billion, i.e. by 36.0%. On the other hand, the negative result on financial operations increased
from PLN 4.9 billion to PLN 5.7 billion, i.e. by 16.3%.
The result on business activities amounted to PLN 61.2 billion, increasing by 10.1% compared to 2013.
The total absolute increase in the result on business activities amounted to PLN 5.6 billion; the increase
was achieved solely due to the positive result on basic activities. The result on financial activities
generated a growth in the amount of PLN 10.5 billion. Other types of activities recorded a decline: result
on operating activities by PLN 4.1 billion and result on financial activities by PLN 0.8 billion. The gross
232
financial result (PLN 61.2 billion) increased by 10.1%, while the net result (PLN 50.4 billion) grew by
6.1%. The return on sales increased from 3.3% to 3.8%, while gross profit margin from 3.6% to 3.8%.
The net profit margin did not change (3.1%).
Capital expenditure (PLN 63.8 billion) increased by 9.1%, while the investment surplus (PLN 106.9
billion) – by 4.3%. The potential investment self-financing opportunities, i.e. the relation of investment
surplus to expenditure, decreased from 1.75 to 1.68.
Debt increased, reaching PLN 626.4 billion (up by 7.3%). At the same time, the debt structure has
slightly improved: the share of long-term liabilities increased from 36.5% to 40.2%. The potential period
of debt repayment with sales revenues has increased (from 141.1 days to 145.2 days). Short-term
receivables (PLN 241.5 billion) grew by 4.5%, while short-term investments (PLN 166.6 billion) by
10.6%.
Financial liquidity ratios improved: 1st degree ratio from 41% to 44% and 2 nd degree ratio from 103% to
109%.
Selected non-industrial sections
All three analysed non-industrial sections of the economy (construction, trade and repair, and
transportation and storage) have experienced an increase in total operating revenues and sales
revenues.
Total revenues and sales revenues in the construction section increased (by 8.6% and 9.0%,
respectively). In both cases, revenues grew at a faster rate than costs, resulting in a substantial
improvement in financial results. The financial result on sales and gross result increased by over 70%,
while the net result increased twofold. The result on other operating activities was negative, compared
to the positive result achieved in the previous year. The situation was different with regard to financial
activities, where the result achieved was positive, compared to the negative result achieved in the
previous years. Profitability improved substantially at all levels.
In the trade and repair section, total revenues and sales revenues increased by over 3%. In both cases,
costs grew slower than revenues, resulting in better financial results. The result on sales increased by
over 15%, while the gross and net results - by approximately 10%. The positive result on other operating
activities declined by more than 20 times, while the negative result on financial activities dropped by
over 20%. All profitability ratios increased.
In the transportation and storage section, total revenues and sales revenues increased by over 5%. The
faster growth of revenues over costs resulted in a better result on sales (up by more than 35%)
However, total revenues grew at a slower rate than costs, as a consequence of which the gross result
declined by approx. 3%, and net result - by approx. 6%. The positive result on other operating activities
decreased by approx. 8%, while the negative result on financial activities increased by about 70%. The
rate of return on sales increased, while gross and net profit margins dropped.
Capital expenditure increased in all three analysed non-industrial sections, with the highest increase
recorded in transportation and storage (up by approx. 23%). In the construction section, capital
expenditure grew by approx. 7%, while in the trade and repair section by approx. 3%.
In 2014, the debt of construction companies was the same as in the previous year. In trade and
transportation companies, on the other hand, the level of debt increased by 4.3% and 11.0%,
233
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
respectively. The potential period of debt repayment with sales revenues was shortened only in the
construction section.
All three financial liquidity ratios increased in the analysed non-industrial sections, except for the 1st
degree ratio in the construction section which remained unchanged. Liquidity ratios exceeded the
reference values in all non-industrial sections, except for the 2nd degree liquidity ratio in the trade and
repair section.
Comparison of the situation in industry and non-industrial sections
Total operating revenues increased by 3.8% in non-industrial sections, and by 1.5% in industry. The
share of industry in total revenues decreased from 48.8% to 46.3%. Revenues grew faster than costs in
non-industrial sections, but slower in the industry. As a result, gross and net results grew in nonindustrial sections of the economy (by 10.1% and 6.1%, respectively), but decreased in the industry (by
4.3% and 4.0%). In effect of multi-directional changes in the results in analysed aggregations, the share
of industry in gross profit dropped from 58.5% to 55.1%, while in net profit from 58.6% to 56.2%.
Chart 59 Share of industry and non-industrial sections in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure
and debt level in 2014 (in %)
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
Revenues
Investments
Debt
Industry
Non-industry sections
Non-industrial sections experienced a growth in the return on sales and gross profit margin, and the net
profit margin in those sections stabilised. In industry, the return on sales remained unchanged, while the
other two profitability ratios (gross and net profit margins) decreased.
234
Table 81 Revenues, results, profitability – sections of the economy in the years 2013 and 2014
Revenues in
PLN billion
a - 2014
b - 2013
TOTAL
Industry, in which:
 Mining
 manufacturing
 electricity, gas, steam and
air conditioning supply
 water supply: sewerage,
waste management and
remediation activities
Non-industry sections.
including:
total
sales
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
2,995.7
2,916.6
1,387.0
1,366.2
56.0
59.4
1,099.0
1,072.3
201.3
204.3
30.7
2,888.6
2,812.0
1,335.6
1,322.1
50.5
55.5
1,075.2
1,046.2
180.8
192.8
29.1
b
30.2
27.6
Financial results in PLN billion
Profitability in %
other
financial
sales operating
gross net sales gross net
activity
income
134.4
9.8
-8.1 136.3 115.0
4.7
4.6 3.8
123.5
13.5
-3.0 134.1 114.8
4.4
4.6 3.9
74.8
2.5
-2.4 75.1 64.6
5.6
5.4 4.7
74.4
2.1
1.9 78.5 67.3
5.6
5.7 4.9
1.6
1.6
-1.7
1.5
0.6
3.1
2.8 1.0
4.4
1.2
-0.8
4.9
3.3
8.0
8.2 5.5
55.0
1.4
-8.7 47.9 41.7
5.1
4.4 3.8
51.4
2.0
-2.1 51.2 44.8
4.9
4.8 4.2
16.8
-1.2
8.2 23.8 20.8
9.3 11.8 10.4
17.3
-2.7
5.0 19.6 16.8
9.0
9.6 8.2
1.4
0.7
-0.2
1.9
1.5
4.7
6.2 4.9
1.3
1.6
-0.2
2.8
2.4
4.9
9.1
7.9
a 1,608.7 1,553.0 59.6
7.3
-5.7 61.2 50.4
3.8
3.8 3.1
b 1,550.4 1,489.9 49.1
11.4
-4.9 55.6 47.5
3.3
3.6 3.1
a 140.8 135.6
6.1
-0.2
0.1
6.0
5.0
4.5
4.3 3.6
Constructions
b 129.6 124.4
3.5
0.4
-0.5
3.5
2.5
2.8
2.7 2.0
a 987.2 972.5 26.8
0.1
-1.9 25.0 21.3
2.8
2.5 2.2
Trade and repair
b 955.8 939.9 23.2
2.3
-2.4 23.1 19.3
2.5
2.4 2.0
a 124.9 119.3
3.3
2.3
-1.7
3.9
3.0
2.8
3.1 2.4
Transport and storage
b 118.5 112.7
2.4
2.5
-1.0
4.0
3.2
2.1
3.4 2.7
Analysis Department of the Ministry of Economy.
Capital expenditure in non-industrial sections grew by 9.1%, while in the industry by 16.6%. The share
of industry in capital expenditure increased from 54.7% to 56.3%. The potential possibilities for the selffinancing of investments decreased in both sectors.
The total level of debt in the industry increased by 8.4%, while in non-industrial sections by 7.3%. The
share of industry in debt increased from 42.1% to 42.4%. The potential period of debt repayment with
sales revenues has increased in both sectors.
Financial liquidity ratios also increased in both sectors.
13.2.5.
Financial situation in ownership sectors
Total operating revenues in the private sector increased by 3.6% to PLN 2,720.5 billion. The costs of
revenue grew at a slightly faster rate. The share of private sector revenues in total revenues increased
from 90.1% to 90.8%. The result on business activities amounted to PLN 118.5 billion (up by 2.6%). The
public sector recorded a 5.1% decrease in total operating revenues (down to PLN 275.2 billion). The
result on business activities dropped by 4.9% to PLN 17.6 billion.
The only reason for the improvement observed with respect to the result on business activities as well
as gross and net results in the private sector was the performance in terms of basic activities, the
financial result on which increased by 11.4%. The positive financial result on other operating activities
decreased, while the negative result on financial activities increased more than twofold. In the public
sector, on the other hand, the cause of the decrease in the result on business activities as well as net
235
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
and gross results was the performance in terms of basic activities and other operating activities (the
positive result on financial activities increased by approximately 70%).
Changes in gross and net financial results in both ownership sectors varied. In the private sector, gross
result increased by 2.7% and net result by 2.1%. In the public sector, in turn, the results dropped by
4.9% and 12.2%, respectively. The private sector recorded an increase in return on sales, while gross
profit margin remained at the same level and net profit margin declined. The public sector recorded a
decrease in return on sales, while gross profit margin remained at the same level and net profit margin
declined.
Capital expenditure in the private and public sector grew by 13.5% and 12.1%, respectively. The share
of the private sector in capital expenditure grew from 73.9% to 74.1%. The potential possibilities for the
self-financing of investments decreased in both sectors.
The total level of debt in both sectors increased: by 7.5% in the private sector and by 9.4% in the public
sector. Moreover, in both sectors the potential period of debt repayment with sales revenues was
extended: up to 129.0 days in the private sector, and up to 205.8 days in the public sector. Both sectors
recorded a growth in financial liquidity ratios, except for the 3 rd degree ration in the public sector. In both
sectors, all financial liquidity indicators exceeded reference values.
Chart 60 Share of ownership sectors in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure and debt level in
2014 (in %)
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Revenues
Investments
Debt
Private sector
Public sector
13.2.6.
Financial situation in enterprises according to their size97
The financial situation of enterprises according to their size varied. Although total operating revenues
grew in all groups of entities, the relations between the growth rates of revenues and costs varied.
Revenues grew faster than costs in small and medium-sized enterprises, resulting in better gross and
net results as well as gross and net profit margins. In large enterprises, revenues grew slower than
costs, resulting in a drop in gross and net results as well as gross and net profit margins.
In small enterprises the number of employees ranges between 10 and 49, in medium-sized enterprises – between 50 and
249, while large enterprises employ more than 249 persons.
97
236
In small enterprises total revenues increased by 5.3%, i.e. faster than costs. The result on business
activities amounted to PLN 23.6 billion, growing by 12.4% compared to 2013. Sales revenues grew by
5.8%, i.e. significantly faster than costs. The result on sales (PLN 21.7 billion) was higher by 17.3%. The
result on other operating activities was positive (PLN 3.9 billion) and exceeded the result achieved in the
previous year by approx. 18%. The negative result on financial activities was 2.5-times higher than in
2013. The gross result grew to PLN 23.6 billion (up by 11.8%), and the net result to PLN 20.3 billion (up
by 10.9%). All profitability ratios increased.
In medium-sized enterprises total revenues increased by 0.5%. Revenues grew faster than costs,
resulting in a substantial increase of the result on business activities by 12.1% (to PLN 34.2 billion).
Sales revenues grew by 0.9%, i.e. significantly faster than costs. The result on sales (PLN 31.2 billion)
was higher by 17.7%. The positive result on other operating activities decreased by approximately 18%.
The loss on financial activities decreased by approximately 5%. The gross financial result grew to PLN
34.2 billion (up by approximately 13%), and the net result to PLN 29.3 billion (up by approximately 14%).
Profitability ratios improved significantly at all levels.
Table 82 Revenues, results, profitability – ownership sectors and enterprises according to their size in
the years 2013 and 2014
Revenues PLN bn
a - 2014
b - 2013
TOTAL
in which:
 private sector
 public sector
a 2,995.7
b 2,916.6
Financial results PLN bn
Profitability %
other
financial
sales
sales operating
gross net sales gross net
activity
income
2,888.6 134.4
9.8
-8.1 136.3 115.0
4.7
4.6 3.8
2,812.0 123.5
13.5
-3.0 134.1 114.8
4.4
4.6 3.9
a 2,720.5
b 2,626.6
a 275.2
b 290.0
2,644.7 126.8
2,544.7 113.8
243.9
7.6
267.3
9.7
total
5.7
8.2
4.1
5.3
-14.0 118.7 101.3
-6.5 115.6 99.2
5.9 17.6 13.7
3.5 18.5 15.6
4.8
4.5
3.1
3.6
4.4
4.4
6.4
6.4
3.7
3.8
5.0
5.4
in which:
a 509.5
491.8 21.7
3.9
-2.0 23.6 20.3
4.4
4.6 4.0
b 483.8
465.0 18.5
3.3
-0.8 21.1 18.3
4.0
4.4 3.8
a 750.9
727.1 31.2
5.1
-2.1 34.2 29.3
4.3
4.6 3.9
 medium-sized enterprises
b 747.3
720.7 26.5
6.2
-2.2 30.4 25.8
3.7
4.1 3.5
a 1,735.3
1,669.7 81.5
0.8
-4.0 78.5 65.4
4.9
4.5 3.8
 large enterprises
b 1,685.5
1,626.3 78.5
4.0
0.0 82.6 70.7
4.8
4.9 4.2
Analysis Department of the Ministry of Economy.
 small enterprises
Total revenues in large enterprises grew by 3.0%, i.e. at a slower rate than costs. As a consequence,
the result on business activities as well as gross and net results decreased. Sales revenues grew by
2.7% and their growth rate was faster than the growth rate of costs, leading to an increase in the result
on sales by 3.8%. The positive result on other operating activities decreased by five times. The result on
financial activities was also lower. The result on business activities amounted to PLN 78.3 billion and
was 5.1% lower compared to the previous year. Gross and net results decreased as well: by 5.0% and
7.5%, respectively. The decreased result on business activities as well as the decline in gross and net
results were only owing to the substantial decline in the result on other operating activities and result on
financial activities. The return on sales improved. On the other hand, gross and net profit margins
recorded a decline.
Capital expenditure grew in all groups, with the fastest growth observed in large enterprises (up by
17.2%). In small and medium-sized enterprises the growth amounted to 8.9%, while in medium-sized
enterprises – 4.0%.
237
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The level of debt grew in all groups: by 15.6% in small enterprises, by 2.0% in medium-sized
enterprises, and by 8.2% in large enterprises. The potential possibilities of debt repayment with sales
revenues decreased in all groups.
All financial liquidity ratios increased in all groups, exceeding reference values.
Chart 61 Share of entities (according to the size thereof) in total revenues, gross result, capital
expenditure and debt level in 2014 (in %)
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Revenues
Gross financial
result
Investments
Debt
small
medium-sized
large
Table 83 Ten largest companies in terms of sales revenues and net profit generated in 2014 (PLN million)*
Revenues
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Name
Polski Koncern Naftowy
ORLEN SA GK, Płock
Jeronimo Martins Polska SA,
Kostrzyn
PGNiG SA GK, Warszawa
Grupa Lotos SA GK, Gdańsk
Grupa Kapitałowa PGE SA GK,
Warszawa
KGHM Polska Miedź SA GK,
Lubin
Tauron Polska Energia SA GK,
Katowice
Eurocash SA GK, Poznań
No
Name
Net
result
PLN mn
change
%
106,832
-6.0
1
Grupa Kapitałowa PGE SA GK, Warszawa
3,657
35,892
9.2
2
PGNiG SA GK, Warszawa
2,822
34,304
28,502
7.1
-0.2
3
4
KGHM Polska Miedź SA GK, Lubin
Tauron Polska Energia SA GK, Katowice
2,451
1,186
28,137
-6.7
5
Energa SA GK, Gdańsk
1,006
20,492
-15.0
6
Enea SA GK, Poznań
909
18,441
-3.6
7
Asseco Poland SA GK, Rzeszów
649
16,964
2.6
8
Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne SA,
Konstancin- Jeziorna
616
PLN mn
Fiat Auto Poland SA, Bielsko13,336
1.0 9 Mondi Świecie SA GK, Świecie
560
Biała
Arcelor Mittal Poland Sa,
10
12,857
5.3 10 Orange Polska SA GK, Warszawa
536
Dąbrowa Górnicza
Total (1 to 10)
315,757
X
Total (1 to 10)
14,392
* Not all companies have published their net financial results. The table above contains only those companies which have
done so.
Source: “Lista 500”, the “Rzeczpospolita” newspaper, 13th of May 2015.
9
238
Among non-financial companies operating on the Polish market, Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA
Capital Group has, for many years, been the leader in terms of revenues; its revenues are greater than
the revenues of the next three companies in the top 10 list combined. The list of ten largest companies
in terms of revenues has been very stable. In the years 2009-2011 the list consisted of the same
companies, with only slight changes in order. In 2012, a new entrant on the list was the Eurocash SA
Capital Group, which replaced Fiat Auto Poland SA. In 2013, however, Fiat Auto Poland SA returned on
the top ten list to replace Telekomunikacja Polska SA Capital Group. In 2014, Arcelor Mittal Poland SA
joined the top ten list, replacing Metro AG Group in Poland. Only five of the ten largest companies
recorded an increase in sales revenues in 2014. The share of the ten largest companies in sales
revenues of all enterprises in the 2009-2012 period was increasing every year from 9.8% to 12.2%.
However, the share fell to 11.6% in 2013 and 10.9% in 2014. The downward trend can also be
observed with respect to the share of the ten largest companies in total net profit of all enterprises,
which dropped from 16.9% in 2012 to 12.5% in 2013 and 10.7% in 2014.
Financial situation in the 1st quarter of 201598
The improvement in the economic situation in Q1 2015 was followed by the improvement in the financial
standing of economic entities. Total operating revenues (PLN 592.3 billion) grew by 4.6%, i.e. at a
higher rate than costs. The result on business activities (PLN 28.4 billion) was 11.0% higher. Sales
revenues (PLN 575.7 billion) increased by 4.2%, i.e. at a higher rate than costs, leading to an increase
in the result on sales to PLN 28.2 billion (up by 13.8%). As a consequence, the gross financial result
reached PLN 28.4 billion (up by 10.8%), and net financial result - PLN 23.3 billion (up by 9.7%). All
profitability ratios increased: the return on sales to 4.9%, gross profit margin to 4.8%, and net profit
margin to 3.9%. Capital expenditures of enterprises reached PLN 22.7 billion, i.e. grew by 16.2%. The
growth in expenditures resulted in a decrease in potential possibilities of financing investments with the
investment surplus.
98
Data for entities employing more than 49 individuals.
239
Table 84 Investments (including the purchase of used fixed assets) and the potential for their financing with investment surplus, debt and potential time of its
repayment, liabilities and financial liquidity in the sections of the economy in 2013 and 2014
Net
profit
a - 2014 b - 2013
Amortiza- Investment
Investtion
surplus
ment*
(2+3)
in which
4:5
Debt
PLN bn
1
TOTAL
Industry, in which:
 mining and quarrying
2
3
longterm
shortterm
PLN bn
4
5
6
7
8:7
Short- Short
Days
term
-term
(repay- liabilities invest.
ment)
%
8
9
10
Financial liquidity
I
PLN bn
11
12
II
III
%
13
14
15
16
a
147.1
92.8
239.9
146.1
1.64 1,087.2
415.0
672.2
38.2
135.5
442.7
280.2
42
108
152
b
140.5
88.2
228.7
129.1
1.77 1,009.0
346.6
662.4
34.4
129.2
424.9
251.0
38
102
145
a
80.3
52.7
133.0
82.3
1.62
460.8
163.0
297.8
35.4
124.2
201.2
113.6
38
106
x
b
76.8
49.4
126.2
70.6
1.79
425.2
133.8
291.4
31.5
115.8
193.7
100.3
34
101
x
a
3.3
6.1
9.4
7.8
1.21
26.7
8.0
18.7
30.0
190.3
7.1
3.3
18
56
86
b
4.1
4.3
8.4
7.4
1.14
22.6
5.3
17.3
23.5
146.6
7.4
4.9
28
71
111
a
53.8
32.4
86.2
45.8
1.88
331.8
96.5
235.3
29.1
111.1
165.0
79.8
34
104
158
b
52.0
31.2
83.2
39.4
2.11
317.0
84.4
232.6
26.6
109.1
158.9
68.6
29
98
150
 electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
supply
a
21.4
10.9
32.3
21.8
1.48
85.6
49.1
36.5
57.4
170.4
24.4
24.6
67
134
174
b
18.0
10.7
28.7
18.5
1.55
69.6
34.9
34.7
50.1
130.0
22.8
21.1
61
127
165
 water supply: sewerage, waste management
and remediation activities
a
1.8
3.3
5.1
6.9
0.74
16.7
9.4
7.3
56.3
206.6
4.7
5.9
81
146
163
b
2.7
3.2
5.9
5.3
1.11
16.0
9.2
6.8
57.5
208.7
4.6
5.7
84
152
169
Non-industry sections. including:
a
66.8
40.1
106.9
63.8
1.68
626.4
252.0
374.4
40.2
145.2
241.5
166.6
44
109
x
b
63.7
38.8
102.5
58.5
1.75
583.8
212.8
371.0
36.5
141.1
231.2
150.7
41
103
x
a
7.3
2.5
9.8
4.4
2.23
68.7
19.1
49.6
27.8
182.4
33.6
21.5
43
111
159
 manufacturing
Constructions
Trade and repair
b
6.3
2.6
8.9
4.1
2.17
68.7
21.2
47.3
30.9
198.8
31.8
20.3
43
110
162
a
26.9
10.6
37.5
15.6
2.40
218.9
38.7
180.2
17.7
81.0
103.2
43.9
24
82
137
b
24.1
9.8
33.9
15.1
2.25
209.8
33.5
176.3
16.0
80.4
99.9
40.9
23
80
134
a
5.0
7.1
12.1
18.7
0.65
69.9
40.8
29.1
58.4
210.9
19.5
19.0
65
132
144
b
5.1
6.5
11.6
15.2
0.76
63.0
30.8
32.2
48.9
201.2
18.6
17.5
54
112
121
* including the purchase of used fixed assets
Source: F-01 financial statements from Insigos (Ministry of Economy) database as well as calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
Table 85 Investments (including the purchase of used fixed assets) and the potential for their financing with investment surplus, debt and potential time of its
repayment, liabilities and liquidity in ownership sectors and in enterprises according to the size thereof in 2013 and 2014
Net Amortizaprofit
tion
a - 2014 b - 2013
Investment
Investsurplus
ment*
(2+3)
in which
4:5
Debt
PLN bn
1
TOTAL
2
3
longterm
shortterm
PLN bn
4
5
6
7
8:7
ShortShort
Days term -term
(repay- liabiliinvest.
ties
ment)
%
8
9
10
Financial liquidity
I
II
14
15
16
PLN bn
11
12
13
III
%
a
147.1
92.8
239.9
146.1
1.64 1,087.2
415.0
672.2
38.2
135.5
442.7
280.2
42
108
152
b
140.5
88.2
228.7
129.1
1.77 1,009.0
346.6
662.4
34.4
129.2
424.9
251.0
38
102
145
a
128.5
74.7
203.2
108.2
1.88
947.8
337.5
610.3
35.6
129.0
408.2
226.6
37
104
149
b
122.7
71.9
194.6
95.3
2.04
881.6
281.6
600.0
31.9
124.7
387.6
200.5
33
98
142
a
18.6
18.1
36.7
37.9
0.97
139.4
77.5
61.9
55.6
205.8
34.5
53.6
87
142
174
b
17.8
16.3
34.1
33.8
1.01
127.4
65.0
62.4
51.0
171.6
37.3
50.5
81
141
178
a
26.7
9.2
35.9
15.9
2.26
189.7
70.0
119.7
36.9
138.9
87.8
55.2
46
119
166
b
24.8
8.4
33.2
14.6
2.27
164.1
54.8
109.3
33.4
127.0
78.6
47.9
44
116
162
a
36.9
19.5
56.4
31.2
1.81
275.8
96.6
179.2
35.0
136.6
121.5
70.5
39
107
153
b
33.3
18.9
52.2
30.0
1.74
270.3
91.7
178.6
33.9
135.0
121.5
66.5
37
105
151
a
83.5
64.1
147.6
99.0
1.49
621.7
248.4
373.3
40.0
134.0
233.4
154.5
41
104
146
b
82.4
60.9
143.3
84.5
1.70
574.6
200.1
374.5
34.8
127.2
224.8
136.6
36
97
137
in which:
Private sector
Public sector
in which:
Small enterprises
Medium-sized enterprises
Large enterprises
* including the purchase of used fixed assets
Source: F-01 financial statements from Insigos (Ministry of Economy) database as well as calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
13.3. Capital expenditures and Polish foreign investments
13.3.1.
Capital expenditure
Capital expenditures are one of the economic categories which are the most sensitive to changes in
economic conditions and characterised by high growth rate variations in subsequent years.
Following a high increase in capital expenditure in 2011 (by 10.0%), a drop in expenditures was
observed in the two following years. The situation improved substantially only in 2014 when investments
grew by over 8%.
In 2014, capital expenditures reached PLN 248.9 billion (compared to PLN 231.2 billion in the previous
year). The structure of expenditures (in current prices) was dominated by expenditures on buildings and
structures (57.0% compared to 58.8% in 2013). The share of expenditures on machines and equipment
amounted to 31.3% (compared to 30.8%) and on means of transport - to 10.8% (compared to 9.5%).
Chart 62 Changes in capital expenditures in years 2010-2014 (in %, as compared to the previous year,
constant prices)
% 20
16.9
15
10.6 10.8
10
8.7
6.1
5
0.2
0
-0.8
-2.8
-3.2
-5
-0.9
-1.2
-10
-15
-11.9
2009
2010
2011
Total
2012
2013
2014
More than 49 employees
Source: Statistical Yearbooks and Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
Whereas in 2011 and 2012 the direction of changes in overall investment expenditures and
expenditures made by enterprises employing more than 49 people was identical, the situation changed
in 2013. A decline in overall expenditures was accompanied by an increase in expenditures made by
business entities with over 49 persons employed. In 2014, the direction of changes in overall
expenditures and expenditures made by entities employing more than 49 individuals was once again
identical, but the expenditure growth rate in the second group of analysed entities was almost twice
higher than in total expenditures.
242
POLAND 2015 - STATE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT
Capital expenditures made by entities employing more than 49 individuals99 reached PLN 120.0 billion
in 2014 (compared to PLN 104.1 billion in the previous year). The structure of expenditures was
dominated by expenditures on machines and equipment (45.9% compared to 46.6% in 2013).
Expenditures on buildings and structures accounted for 40.8% (compared to 41.3%), and on means of
transport - for 12.0% (compared to 11.3%).
Table 86 Capital expenditure in years 2009-2014 (in PLN billion)
Expenditures on tangible fixed assets
Including:
Other
Years
Total
Buildings Machines
Transport
expenditures
Total
and
and
means
premises equipment
Total population
2009
218.6
218.4
130.3
66.6
20.1
0.2
2010
217.3
217.2
134.2
60.4
21.1
0.1
2011
243.3
243.2
148.4
70.0
22.7
0.1
2012
237.6
237.2
145.5
69.9
20.4
0.4
2013
231.2
231.1
136.0
71.0
22.0
0.1
2014
248.9
248.7
141.8
77.9
26.8
0.2
Entities with more than 49 employees
2009
94.1
94.0
38.9
46.2
8.1
0.1
2010
89.2
89.2
37.5
40.6
10.1
0.0
2011
99.9
99.8
39.1
47.1
12.4
0.1
2012
99.7
99.6
40.5
47.3
11.0
0.1
2013
104.1
104.0
43.0
48.5
11.8
0.1
2014
120.0
119.8
49.0
55.1
14.4
0.2
Source: Statistical Yearbooks and Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
In current prices, expenditures increased by 15.3%. Expenditures rose in all seven economy sectors
under analysis. The highest increase was observed in water supply, sewage and waste management
(up by 28.4%) and transportation and storage (up by 25.5%).
Table 87 Capital expenditure in individual sections of the economy in years 2013 and 2014 (in PLN
billion), current prices
Specification
2013
Economy
104.1
Industry including:
62.6
- Mining and quarrying
7.1
- Manufacturing
33.7
- Electricity, gas and water supply
17.4
- Water supply, wastes management and recultivation
4.4
Construction
2.1
Trade and repair
10.1
13.4
*dynamics indicators calculated on the basis of values expressed in PLN million
2014
120.0
74.1
7.5
39.7
21.2
5.7
2.4
10.3
16.8
Dynamics
2014/2013*
115.3
118.3
104.4
117.8
122.2
128.4
116.7
102.3
125.5
In 2014, investments increased in 16 out of 22 divisions of the manufacturing section (compared to 12
divisions in the previous year). The most substantial increase in expenditure was experienced with
regard to the manufacture of: leather and related products (up nearly threefold), coke and refined
petroleum products (up nearly 65%), computer, electronic and optical products (up more than 50%),
The information contained in the following part of this chapter pertains to investments made by enterprises employing more
than 49 individuals. Data for sections and divisions of the economy is based on the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD)
2007.
99
243
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
textiles and furniture (up by more than 40% in both cases). The highest decrease was recorded in the
manufacture of beverages (down by 3.1%) and manufacture of wood, cork and wicker products (down
by 3.0%).
Table 88 Capital expenditure in the manufacturing industry by divisions of the Polish Classification of
Activities (PKD) in years 2013 and 2014, expressed in PLN million
Specification
Manufacturing, including production of:
− food products
− beverages
− tobacco products
− textiles
− clothing
− leather and leather products
− wood and wooden products
− paper and paper products
− printing and reproduction of recorded media
− coke and refined petroleum products
− chemicals and chemical products
− pharmaceuticals
− rubber and plastic products
− non-metallic raw material products
− metals
− metal products
− computers, electronic and optical products
− electrical appliances
− machinery and equipment
− vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
− other transport equipment
− furniture
2013
2014
33,671
4,976
1,120
550
219
88
42
1,083
2,123
337
1,578
2,229
330
3,282
1,973
1,169
2,389
558
1,599
1,272
4,483
717
891
39,680
6,510
1,086
603
318
110
129
1,051
2,120
426
2,601
2,991
376
3,227
1,935
1,264
2,509
849
1,571
1,564
5,683
845
1,268
Dynamics
2014/2013
117.8
130.8
96.9
109.6
145.7
125.5
308.4
97.0
99.9
126.4
164.8
134.2
113.9
98.3
98.1
108.2
105.0
152.1
98.2
123.0
126.8
117.8
142.3
Structure
in 2014
100.0
16.4
2.7
1.5
0.8
0.3
0.3
2.6
5.3
1.1
6.6
7.5
0.9
8.1
4.9
3.2
6.3
2.1
4.0
3.9
14.3
2.1
3.2
In Q1 2015, capital expenditures of enterprises (in constant prices) grew by 14.6%, compared to an
increase of 16.3% a year earlier. In current prices, the increase reached 16.2%. Growth (in current
prices) was recorded in four out of seven analysed sections: in electricity, gas, steam and hot water
generation and supply (up by 76.1%), water supply, sewerage and waste management (up by 35.0%),
as well as in manufacturing and construction (up by approximately 19% in both cases). Capital
expenditures in the mining and quarrying section decreased by approx. 20%, while in trade and repair
section and transportation and storage section the level of capital expenditures plummeted by approx.
10%.
Year 2014 brought about an increase in the number of commenced investment projects (up by 2.1%) as
well as a decrease in the estimated value of the commenced projects (down by 0.9%).
Out of seven surveyed sections of the economy, only manufacturing experienced growth in the
estimated value (up by 23.7%), while in construction the estimated value of commenced projects
remained at the same level as in 2013. A decrease was recorded in five out of seven surveyed sections,
including the highest in: mining and quarrying (down by over 50%) and transportation and storage
(down by over 15%).
Out of the seventeen divisions of the manufacturing section presented by the Central Statistical Office
(GUS), the estimated value rose in twelve and decreased in five. The highest increase was recorded in
the manufacture of motor vehicles (up by over 80%), metal products (up by over 70%), chemicals and
chemical products, pharmaceuticals, and computer, electronic and optical products (up by over 57% in
244
all three cases). The most substantial decrease was recorded in the manufacture of: coke and refined
petroleum products (down nearly 60%), beverages (down by over 45%), and other transport equipment
(down by over 25%).
Table 89 Investment commenced in specific sections of the economy in years 2011-2014
Specification
Economy
Industry including:

Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity, gas and water supply
 Water supply, wastes management and
recultivation
Construction
Trade and repair
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
a
b
2011
2012
2013
2014
160,017
51,504
129,921
28,336
824
1,747
17,687
12,329
106,351
11,733
5,059
2,528
649
396
4,293
3,628
1,634
13,245
156,950
44,039
121,483
29,317
858
2,492
19,334
12,612
96,250
11,995
5,041
2,217
559
318
3,776
4,383
1,621
5,041
180,796
49,776
137,324
33,398
830
2,580
16,405
13,450
114,796
14,705
5,293
2,663
464
239
7,365
4,142
2,481
6,983
184,662
49,350
141,185
33,826
556
1,232
16,056
16,633
119,127
13,305
5,446
2,656
421
239
7,665
3,929
2,732
5,890
Dynamics
2014/2013
102.1
99.1
102.8
101.3
67.0
47.8
97.9
123.7
103.8
90.5
102.9
99.7
90.7
100.0
104.1
94.9
110.1
84.3
a/ number of new investment projects,
b/ estimated value of newly-commenced investments in PLN million (current prices)
In 2012, the economic situation of Poland has substantially deteriorated compared to 2011. The rate of
economic growth experienced a significant decline, the level of capital expenditure dwindled and so did
the demand for investment credit. The level of corporate liabilities under investment loans decreased by
2.9%, with the level of liabilities under operating loans decreasing at a slower pace (by 1.9%).
Table 90 Value of credits and deposits of enterprises in years 2011-2015 (in PLN billion)
1
12.
2011
2
12.
2012
3
Credits for companies:
264.5 272.2
including:
- operating activities
105.4 103.4
- investments:
84.0
81.6
- small and medium-sized
47.5
47.2
- large
36.5
34.4
- real estate
48.3
51.2
Deposits of companies
206.0 191.3
Source: Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
12.
2013
4
03.
2014
5
12.
2014
6
03.
2015
7
4:3
8
Dynamics
6:4
7:5
9
10
278.0
286.5
300.9
308.3
102.1
108.2
107.6
109.3
87.0
50.5
36.5
49.6
209.7
114.2
88.4
51.2
37.2
50.6
197.2
112.7
96.1
53.3
42.8
51.2
229.4
117.8
98.0
54.6
43.7
50.5
219.0
105.7
106.6
107.0
106.1
96.9
109.6
103.1
110.5
105.5
117.3
103.2
109.4
103.2
110.9
106.6
117.5
99.8
111.1
In 2013, the economic growth rate has slightly slowed down compared to 2012. However, GDP growth
rate accelerated with each passing quarter, which resulted in higher willingness to invest and increased
demand for investment loans. As at the end of 2013, the level of corporate liabilities under investment
loans increased by 6.6%, i.e. faster than the level of liabilities under operating loans.
The positive trends observed in 2013 continued in 2014. The relatively high growth of GDP and capital
expenditure was accompanied by increased demand for investment loans. Throughout the year, the
245
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
level of liabilities under investment loans increased by 10.5%, while the level of liabilities under business
loans grew by 3.1%. The situation in the 1st quarter of 2015 was similar.
It is worth noting that the level of debt of the SME sector under investment loans is higher than in the
case of large enterprises (PLN 53.3 billion and PLN 42.8 billion, respectively, at the end of 2014).
Chart 63 Changes in capital expenditure of economic entities (current prices) and in corporate liabilities
under investment loans in years 2012-2015 (in %, compared to the previous year)
% 20
17.5
16.2
15
10.5
10
7.7
6.6
5
0
-5
-2.9
-2.3
2012
-2.7
2013
Investment loans
2014
I-III. 2015*
Capital expenditures
* data in 1st q of 2015 concern entities with more than 49 employees.
Source: Statistical Bulletins of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), data of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority,
calculations by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy.
13.3.2.
Polish foreign investments
Polish entrepreneurs more often decide to conduct business outside the country. Long time, they
however limited themselves to export, but together with economic changes, which occurred since the
beginning of the transformation and resulted in the increase in entrepreneurship and greater
participation of the private sector in the economy, Polish companies started also to invest abroad.
Cooperation with foreign partners as well as engagement of foreign capital in Poland had a major
impact on opening of Polish companies to the foreign markets. Thus, Polish entrepreneurs had the
opportunity to observe activities related to enterprise management and establishment of position based
on know-how and modern technologies. Strengthening the position in the domestic market has
encouraged many of them to pursue more brave strategies which also include capital expansion. An
increased interest in the foreign markets was manifested by increasingly evident involvement of Polish
companies in mergers, acquisitions, activity in form of branches or branch offices, or finally by
construction of production facilities. Accession of Poland to the European Union had also significant
impact on increased presence of Polish companies in the foreign markets. Although substantial
concentration of investments on the European market is still being observed, there are still many
companies that invest on other continents: in Asia, both Americas or in Africa. Due to those
investments, Poland has become one of the largest foreign investors among new Member States of the
European Union (EU-12), whereas the cumulative value of foreign direct investments amounted to
approx. EUR 20.6 billion at the end of 2013.
246
Until the year 2000 (with exception of 1998), the value of Polish direct investments abroad did not
exceed EUR 50 million annually. The capital involvement of Polish companies in the foreign markets
was increasing from year to year. As a result, the value of Polish FDI rose from EUR 144 million in 2002
to EUR 2.3 billion in 2005. Until now, the highest value of Polish FDI was registered in 2006. It resulted
i.a. from transaction related to the purchase of the refinery in Mazeikiai (Możejki) by PKN Orlen which
was the greatest Polish foreign investment until 2012100. The outflow of Polish capital in form of FDI
amounted then to over EUR 6 billion.
In crisis years of 2008-2009, some Polish enterprises limited investments which were carried out so far,
whereas others perceived the years of the crisis as an opportunity to undertake new, sometimes risky
investment projects. Many of them had the nature of mergers or acquisitions. On the other hand, the
value of reinvested profits, which is strongly correlated with the economic situation, decreased. In 2009,
these were below zero - due to weaker financial results of the companies. In 2010, Polish entrepreneurs
invested abroad funds worth EUR 4.6 billion, whereas in 2011, similarly to as in 2009, EUR 2.6 billion.
The year of 2012 brought a reversal of the observed trends. The balance of Polish FDI abroad was
negative. The value and structure of the Polish FDI were, however, substantially influenced by
transactions related to the activity of the special purpose entities. If the capital in amount of EUR 4.6
billion was not withdrawn within those transactions, the value of Polish FDI would be similar to those
recorded in 2011. The results do not reflect the fact that the largest Polish investment in the history was
made in 2012, i.e. the purchase of Canadian company Quadra FNX by KGHM. This transaction took
place in the first quarter of 2012 and its value amounted to approx. PLN 9.5 billion. Similarly to the
previous year, in 2013 the value of Polish FDI was below zero (almost EUR -1.1 billion) and remained
under the clear influence of capital in transit. The economic outlook in the countries of the European
Union, the biggest recipients of Polish capital, did not foster the reconstruction of the foreign activity of
Polish companies.
Table 91 Polish foreign direct investments in years 2008-2013 (in EUR million)
Year
2008
2009
Value
2,355
2,636
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
2010
4,640
2011
2,640
2012
-2,067
2013
-1,063
Taking into consideration geographical criterion, FDI from Poland was sent in 2013 to Cyprus (EUR 444
million), the United Kingdom (EUR 325 million), Denmark (EUR 267 million) as well as to Austria (EUR
196 million) and Germany (EUR 187 million). By the end of 2013, most receivables from Polish FDI
accounted for the countries of the European Union (72% of total receivables, i.e. EUR 14.9 billion). In
the division which included certain countries, the greatest amount of receivables (amounting to more
than EUR 1 billion) accounted for: Luxembourg (EUR 6.9 billion, approx. 33.3% of total receivables),
Cyprus (EUR 4.5 billion; 21.9%), Switzerland (EUR 2 billion; 9.5%) and the Netherlands (EUR 1.8
billion; 8.6%), Lithuania (EUR 1.6 billion; 7.6%), the Czech Republic (EUR 1.6 billion; 7.6%).101
Investing in geographically close markets and in particular in EU countries primarily reduces the risk.
This is important when capital resources available to the companies are not so significant. On the other
hand, less distance allows for better control over the investment. More and more Polish companies
invest outside of Europe by moving production processes there. Those that are aware how certain
market differs from the domestic market develop their activity there and succeed as the business grows.
Such form of extension of activity is selected by Polish companies which operate in IT, mining, food,
In July 2014, PKN Orlen has made write-downs of its investments, including those in Lithuania. Currently, the book value
of Orlen Lietuva Group reaches the value of PLN 0.5 billion.
101 General data and comprehensive data regarding FDI differ in the use of data sources with various revision periods.
General data should be considered as the most up-to-date.
100
247
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
construction, furniture and chemical sector as well as companies from the financial sector. There are
also more and more commercial companies functioning.
Box 21 Polish foreign investments in 2013 and 2014
The year of 2013 brought continuation of negative trend which started in 2012. High outflow of capital in transit
was again recorded and this negatively translated into a value of Polish FDI. It should be however noted that
lower concentration on foreign markets resulted partly from poorer economic situation in the country. In 2013,
companies were more cautious while making investments and many of them put the decisions to invest off in
anticipation of an economic recovery. Preliminary results of UNCTAD (from May 2015) indicate a gradual
recovery of investment flow. In the world, they increased by 6.2%, whereas in the case of European countries
the growth amounted to 2.0% and for EU countries - by 0.6%. It may be assumed that positive trend was also
recorded in Poland which may be indicated by an increase in the balance of the item “foreign investment-assets”
in the international investment position in 2014 as compared to those in 2013. It includes i.a. foreign investments
made by Polish companies. Press releases and communications of the companies indicate that Polish
companies were active on the foreign markets by acquiring new assets in the mining, petrochemical, chemical
and food industry as well as by developing a network of clothing and footwear shops.
At the sectoral level, in 2013 the majority of Polish capital was invested abroad in section Construction EUR 1.1 billion. EUR 155.1 million was invested in manufacturing.
As for the balance of receivables at the end of 2013 in various sectors, the largest investments were
made in the services (EUR 15.8 billion). Investments of substantial value were also made in
manufacturing (EUR 4.3 billion).
The sharp increase in the cumulative value of Polish foreign investment over the past decade shows
great potential for expansion resulting from their efficient and flexible action. Despite the slowdown in
economic growth on a global scale, in 2013 the value of receivables from the Polish FDI exceeded EUR
20.6 billion, which means that compared to 2004 it increased over twentyfold.
Despite the increase in the value of Polish foreign investments, in the next few years Poland will rather
remain an importer of capital. On one hand, it results from implemented policy aimed to attract foreign
investors to Poland. Additionally, some Polish entities do not feel powerful and innovative enough to
compete in the global market.
13.4. FDI inflow to Poland
13.4.1.
The role and importance of the companies with foreign capital
Companies with foreign capital and investments made by them in the last decades fostered qualitative
changes in Polish economy. They resulted in increased technological advancement which led to
increased effectiveness, diffusion of technology as well as production and export of more processed
capital-intensive goods. Foreign companies have contributed to the modernization of industry and
production processes, as well as shaped the development of the service sector. They often initiated
innovative undertakings, stimulated and facilitated the implementation of new technological solutions
allowing to achieve numerous synergetic effects. Currently, services sector, including modern business
services, plays increasingly important role in Polish economy. Each year, there are more new
investments in BPO centres (outsourcing of business processes), SSC (shared services centres), IT
and R&D. In recent years, i.a. the following companies have invested in Poland: Citi, HP, Cisco, BBH,
WNS Globar Services, Oracle, Capgemini, and the number of service centres in our countries
increased to 532 in April 2015. These centres are owned by 356 investors. They hire already 150
248
thousand employees, 36% more than in 2013. According to the estimated made by the Association of
Business Service Sector Leaders (ABSL), in 2020 service centres will employ up to 250 thousand
people. At the same time, Poland is a leader in Europe in the provision of business services for global
enterprises. Within the horizon of the next few years, further increase in investment in services sector
may be expected.
Revenues of companies with foreign capital (data concern all enterprises)102 amounted to PLN 1,242
billion in 2013. The highest revenues from total activity were obtained by entities operating in
manufacturing - PLN 539.2 billion (i.e. 43% of the revenues of all entities with foreign capital) as well as
in trade and repairs - PLN 417.8 billion.
Capital expenditures of companies with foreign capital in 2013 were 6% lower compared to 2012,
amounting to PLN 75.1 billion. These companies spend PLN 51.3 billion in 2013 to acquire new assets.
The biggest investments were made by companies operating in manufacturing. They constituted
34.3% of expenses on fixed assets of all entities with foreign capital. Further investments were made
by entities engaged in trade and repairs, those operating in information and communication section as
well as servicing real estate market, whose share accounted for respectively 14.4% and for 12.2% of
expenses for fixed assets of all entities with foreign capital.
Table 92 Basic financial categories of companies with foreign capital participation with the number of
employees exceeding 9 persons as compared to entities submitting balance sheet statements in years
2011-2013 (as at the end of year), in PLN million
Specification
Entities
submitting
balance sheet
including:
Companies
with foreign
capital
Industry
a
b
c
Number
of
compani
-es
Total
revenues
52,823
53,070
54,332
2,878,220
2,977,850
3,010,214
Including
exports
429,468
457,519
479,589
Financial result
(balance)
gross
net
137,121
127,998
131,962
113,265
107,698
112,645
a
8,465
1,156,039
293,766
39,517
b
8,613
1,180,308
306,672
51,442
c
8,581
1,178,826
319,169
48,741
a
3,389
566,033
256,915
27,757
b
3,427
572,693
266,725
28,803
c
3,215
534,284
275,807
28,786
Trade and
a
2,189
368,007
7,964
9,911
repair
b
2,245
387,656
8,685
9,570
c
2,248
395,809
8,233
10,354
a/ data for year 2011 b/ data for year 2012 c/ data for year 2013
Source: Business activities of companies with foreign capital participation in
January 2015.
30,644
43,768
40,966
23,147
24,334
24,892
7,625
7,399
8,063
Number of entities
which generated
profit
gross
net
Number
of
employ
ees
thous.
of
persons
42,436
41,994
44,069
42,095
41,663
43,693
5,159.3
5,103.5
5,152.3
5,585
5,888
6,087
2,411
2,537
2,467
1,401
1,482
1,587
5,514
5,811
6,009
2,396
2,511
2,440
1,374
1,462
1,561
1,536.4
1,541.3
1,598.6
769.3
765.8
750.5
356.0
362.6
376.1
2013, the Central Statistical Office (GUS),
Foreign investments have positive effect on the level of employment, creating new workplaces. The
number of persons working in companies with foreign capital amounted to 1,541.3 thousand at the end
of 2013, i.e. 3.7% more compared to 2012. Half of them are employed in the companies engaged in
manufacturing (750.5 thousand). Their number was almost twice bigger than the number of persons
working in the services sector.
102
Data regarding 2014 will be presented by the Central Statistical Office of Poland by the end of 2015.
249
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Manufacturing of companies with foreign capital increased national export. In 2013, export activity was
conducted by 10,652 economic entities which accounted for 40.7% of all entities with foreign capital.
The value of their export sales was higher by 4.7% compared to 2012 and amounted to PLN 375.6
billion. Enterprises operating in manufacturing are prevailing in export (78.8%). Export of goods
predominated in the structure of export - 72.1%. As far as breakdown into voivodeships is concerned,
companies from Mazowieckie - 21.6% and Śląskie - 17.9% voivodeships had the greatest share in
export.
Foreign enterprises located in Poland are also significant importers. The value of their import amounted
in 2013 to PLN 379.2 billion, which is 0.5% more than in 2012. Raw materials as well as materials and
semi-finished products for production purposes were most frequently imported. They constituted 42.8%
of the import value. In comparison with 2007, import performed by foreign companies operating in
Poland increased by 43.2%, whereas export rose by 53.1%.
Table 93 Value of export and import as well as share of foreign companies in the Polish international
trade turnover (in PLN billion) in years 2007-2013
Value of Polish foreign trade
exports
imports
2007
386.6
456.8
2008
405.4
497.0
2009
423.2
463.4
2010
481.1
536.2
2011
558.7
623.4
2012
603.4
648.1
2013
647.9
656.1
Share of foreign companies in
Polish trade turnover (%)
exports
imports
63.4
57.9
61.9
56.1
61.2
65.0
60.9
60.5
60.6
59.4
59.4
58.2
57.9
57.8
Companies with foreign capital
exports
245.3
251.0
259.1
293.0
338.7
358.6
375.6
imports
264.8
279.0
301.4
324.2
370.3
377.2
379.2
The role of companies with foreign capital in Polish commercial exchange is gradually evolving which is
proven by low dynamics of both export and import of the companies with foreign capital when
compared to entities which base on national capital. If only trade in goods is taken into consideration, it
may be noticed that share of foreign companies in turnover is decreasing (in 2013, it did not exceed
50%). This is i.a. caused by situation of foreign companies weakened by the crisis. Simultaneously,
structural changes take place in our economy. Decline in share of manufacturing in favour of services
both in the structure of economy and of inflow of foreign direct investments has contributed to the
change in structure of commercial exchange.
Table 94 Revenues from sales, exports-to-sales ratio and employment in selected foreign companies in
Poland in years 2012-2014
Company
Revenues from sales in
PLN million
2012
2013
2014
Exports-to-sales ratio in
%
2012
2013
2014
79.4
88.9
88.1
84.1
n.a
n.a
88.0
94.0
87.7
92.0
93.0
92.0
93.0
82.0
83.0
71.0
72.0
67.0
66.0
64.5
90.0
71.5
n.a
74.8
85.0
85.0
32.7
14,114
13,163
13,336
Fiat Auto Poland
Volkswagen*
4,553
9,437
9,909
Philips Lighting Poland
4,409
4,846
5,154
LG Electronics Wrocław
4,900
5,003
4,798
LG Electronics Mława
4,333
3,786
4,794
BSH, Warszawa
3,412
3,523
4,286
GlaxoSmithKline
4,498
4,833
4,218
Electrolux
3,347
3,245
3,519
Indesit, Łódź
3,302
3,444
3,241
Toyota Motor
1,999
1,720
1,796
97.6
Manufacturing, Wałbrzych
*2012 – Polkowice; 2013, 2014 - Poznań,
Source: “Lista 500”, the “Rzeczpospolita” newspaper, 13th of May 2015.
250
n.a
n.a
Employment
(full-time)
2012
2013
5,101
3,594
1,141
n.a
n.a
4,426
1,469
1,137
2,546
5,650
1,574
1,870
1,520
n.a
3,897
4,094
3,008
3,187
1,700
n.a
2014
3,328
n.a
4,537
1,226
2,430
2,036
608
4,171
3,149
n.a
13.4.2.
FDI inflow to Poland
Changes which occurred since the beginning of economic transformation in Poland resulted in
increased interest in our country showed by foreign entities. Changes in the law were an important
prerequisite, whereas one of the breakthrough legal acts allowing foreign capital to invest in Poland was
the Act on companies with foreign capital of 1991 which permitted foreign investors to conduct business
in form of joint-stock company or limited liability company. Entry into force of the Economic Activity Act
of 1999 played also a crucial role as Article 6 (2) contained therein provides that foreign persons may
undertake and conduct business activity in the territory of the Republic of Poland on the same terms as
national enterprises.
Another significant factor which increased the investment attractiveness of Poland was Poland’s
accession to the European Union. Even though before entering the EU, Poland was a relatively
attractive country, accession to the EU guarantees stability, predictability and security to foreign
investors which in turn allowed them to plan their activities in longer time horizon and with less risk. In
the years 2004-2013, the value of FDI inflow to Poland amounted to approx. EUR 100 billion. Together
with the increase in the FDI inflow directed to Poland, Polish share in global FDI flows also have risen.
In the pre-accession period of 1999-2003, it amounted to slightly over 0.7%, whereas in the years 20042011 it increased to over 1.1%.
In the initial period, foreign entities imported products and components necessary for manufacturing
process in Poland. However, with time Polish companies started to produce goods for the needs of
foreign companies, building and strengthening their position in the domestic market, and thus they could
undertake foreign expansion. Polish enterprises were prompted by the impulse to implement new
technological solutions which increased domestic demand for investments and positively affected the
rate of economic growth. Technological progress obtained due to foreign capital also fostered the
increase in labour efficiency. In the years 2000-2003, labour efficiency in Poland (measured in PPS per
1 employee) constituted slightly more than 60% of the average productivity in the European Union
countries (EU-28). In the years 2004-2012, this disproportion was reduced and in 2013 it amounted to
74.4% of the average measured for EU-28.
Chart 64 FDI inflow into Poland in years 2005-2013 (in EUR billion)
18
15.8
16
14.6
14
13.1
12
bn EUR
10
8
9.5
7.8
8.6
9.7
5.5
6
4
2.2
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: The National Bank of Poland (NBP).
251
2011
2012
2013
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In the years 2012-2014, both in Poland and in the world there were several phenomena which
disrupted the previously observed trends in FDI flows. The value of FDI inflow to Poland decreased
from over EUR 13 billion recorded in 2011 to almost EUR 2.2 billion in 2013. The causes of lower
values of direct investments in Poland in 2013 should be sought in several concurrent factors.
On one hand, the activity of foreign investors was limited by weaker rate of economic growth in Poland
and, on the other hand, by slowdown in the majority of European countries and in the United States
which were a significant source of the foreign capital in Poland. Weaker economic situation also means
lower reinvested profits which in the case of Poland still constitute an important position in the capital
structure of FDI inflow. FDI statistics were mostly affected by transactions of special purpose entities
and related capital outflow in transit. Their value in 2013 was estimated to approx. EUR 2.8 billion,
whereas in 2012 there were at the level of EUR 4.1 billion103.
Such type of capital flows significantly affects statistics regarding FDI. Hence, symmetrical entries are
registered in position “foreign direct investments in Poland” and “Polish investments abroad”. The
balance of direct investments remains at the same level as if these transactions did not take place.
Despite the fact that capital in transit is included and recognised in official statistics, it does not have
effects on actual economic activity. It is the inflow (and outflow) of the capital from the head offices of
international corporations which is to be transferred to the entities to other countries. This allows these
companies i.a. to reduce their tax liabilities104. While preparing the report on FDI in 2013, the National
Bank of Poland distinguished capital in transit from statistics regarding FDI and published series of
data, from which this category of capital flows were omitted. It is significant because starting from 2004
capital in transit clearly distorted statistics regarding FDI. In the years 2004-2009 and 2011, capital in
transit contributed to increasing value of FDI in Poland and Polish FDI abroad. Situation changed at the
beginning of 2012 when corporations withdrew their capital from subsidiaries as a result of which the
outflow of the capital in transit was so significant. The estimates reveal that if it was not capital in
transit, value of FDI in Poland in 2013 would not amount to EUR 2.2 billion but to approx. EUR 5 billion.
Despite visibly lower value of FDI inflow in the recent years, Poland remained in the group of the
largest FDI recipients in Central and Eastern Europe, whereas in terms of cumulative value of foreign
direct investments it was one of the leaders. Among the countries which joined the European Union
together with Poland, only Hungary recorded higher value of liabilities arising from FDI. In case of this
country, capital in transit corresponded however to almost half of the FDI value, whereas in Poland it
amounted to approx. 1%. Until the end of 2013 over EUR 160 billion was invested in Poland, whereas
in Hungary - EUR 180 billion, in the Czech Republic - EUR 98 billion and in Slovakia - EUR 42 billion.
From the perspective of analyses of foreign direct investments, apart from their value, their structure is
also significant as it reflects the nature of investors’ activity. Engagement of foreign investors in
privatisation in the 1990s and at the beginning of 2000 resulted in growth of share capital in the
structure of investments. In the years 2000-2001, investments in share capital of the companies
corresponded to over 90% of FDI value in Poland. Starting from 2004, this share was however
systematically declining due to the fact that as privatisation rate slowed down, investments made were
reinvestments in their nature. They consisted in upgrading of existing investments and their
In accordance to the methodological guidelines of OECD, data on foreign direct investments (FDI) include also capital in
transit, i.e. capital flows made by special purposes entities.
104 According to the National Bank of Poland.
103
252
modernisation. As a result, the meaning of reinvested profits in the FDI structure has increased105. In
particular, accelerating the increase in the value of this category was observed after Polish accession to
the European Union.
In comparison with 2012, investments in shares and other forms of capital shares (almost EUR 5.5
billion) which resulted from withdrawing the capital in transit. Reinvested profits decreased as well. The
value of reinvested profits amounted in 2013 to EUR 4.1 billion in comparison to EUR 4.4 billion
obtained in 2012. Although on an annual basis reinvested profits were lower than in 2012, they were
prevailing position in the capital structure of FDI inflow and allowed to some extent to compensate for
negative value of investment in shares and share capital.
Table 95 Structure of FDI inflow to Poland in years 2007-2013 (in EUR million)
Year
Equity
Reinvested earnings
Investor credits
2007
5,592
6,770
3,474
2008
6,712
-654
3,440
2009
3,804
3,581
1,187
2010
3,145
5,620
891
2011
1,483
5,236
6,412
2012
-1,153
4,362
2,331
2013
-5,447
4,124
3,531
Source: The National Bank of Poland, Polish and foreign direct investment in 2013, Warsaw 2015.
Total capital inflow
15,836
9,497
8,572
9,659
13,131
5,540
2,208
Box 22 Changes in presentation of FDI data
On the basis of the data presented by the National Bank of Poland and due to changed methodology in which
data regarding foreign direct investments are presented, the value of FDI inflow to Poland in 2014 may only be
estimated. Changes, which included transactions, receivables and liabilities between other entities in the group
of capital-related entities, were however necessary so that the statistics could better reflect phenomena
occurring in the economic reality. So far, data regarding FDI were presented both in Balance of Payments and
International Investment Position and they were divided into foreign direct investments in Poland and Polish
direct investments abroad. Growing complexity of capital connections between entities within capital groups
hindered the ability to determine the source of capital. Consequently, FDI statistics have less applicable value.
Therefore, new methodological standard consisting of two assumptions have been developed. The first
assumption states that transactions of foreign direct investors in Polish entities are treated as direct investments
in Poland, whereas transactions of Polish direct investors in foreign entities are considered as Polish foreign
direct investments. What have changed was the manner to present data on transactions between other entities
in the group of capital-related entities (between so-called subsidiaries). Until now, in such cases balance
approach has been applied (assets/liabilities). This meant that all assets of Polish entities relating to “other in the
group” entities (non-residents) were presented as Polish direct investments in another country, whereas liabilities
of such entities related to non-residents were shown as foreign direct investments in Poland. According to new
requirements, the direction of FDI between two entities “other in the group” is determined by the residence place
of the dominating entity in the capital group.
New method of data presentation has forced adjustments in relation to the value of FDI statistics presented so
far. This was particularly visible in the case of data related to Polish foreign investments which stems from the
fact that they are rarely a dominant entities in given capital group.
The analysis of data related to foreign direct investments in Poland and data presented in the balance of
payments in relation to position “direct investments liabilities” shows that the value of FDI inflow to
Reinvested profits are included only in the case of direct investments. They do not apply to portfolio investments or other
investments. In accordance with the principles for preparing the balance of payments, reinvested profits are treated as if they
were paid to the foreign investor and afterwards reinvested by him. It follows from the fact that due to owing significant part of
the enterprise which makes direct investments (at least 10%), direct investor has influence on the decision to leave his profit
in the enterprise.
105
253
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Poland constituted on average approx. 80% of the balance in position “direct investments liabilities”. If
such relationship was also maintained in 2014, it may be assumed that Poland received approx. EUR 88.5 billion from FDI in this year106. In 2014, Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ)
handled the investment projects worth almost EUR 1.9 billion. In this year, PAIiIZ finished 52 investment
projects due to which over 8.7 thousand new workplaces should be established. Most investments were
made in BPO - 18 projects. Investors were also interested in automotive industry (11) and research and
development (6). Geographically, most investment came from the USA (15), Germany (12) and Sweden
(4).
The year of 2014 was special due to the investment of German Volkswagen107 which was considered as
the largest industrial investment in Europe in the last decade. Such investments are important for
Poland due to created workplaces not only in the “main plant” but also in companies which are its
subcontractors. Investments in automotive sector differ a lot from investments in this sector in the
1990s. More frequently, foreign investors establish facilities in form of R&D centres which employ
qualified engineers developing innovative solutions. It should, however, be emphasised that apart from
traditionally popular investments in the automotive, aerospace and electronics sectors, the importance
of services sector is growing which is indicated not only by data of the National Bank of Poland
regarding FDI stock value in services sector (EUR 97.3 billion at the end of 2013) but also by the abovementioned business services sector. Recently, General Motors, FedEx, Mars, Owens-Illinois, Toyota and
UPS invested in this type of activity in Poland. Furthermore, the significance of smaller urban centres is
increasing in this area. New centres are established not only in main cities of Poland, such as Warsaw,
Cracow or Wrocław, but cities like Lublin, Bydgoszcz, Opole, Szczecin and Olsztyn become more and
more attractive for the companies.
Box 23 Programme for the Support of investments of considerable importance for the Polish economy for
years 2011-2020
In July 2011, the Council of Ministers adopted the Programme for the Support of investments of considerable
importance for the Polish economy for years 2011-2020 aimed at increasing innovativeness and
competitiveness of Polish economy by supporting new investments made by Polish and foreign companies. The
programme provides support in the priority sectors, i.e.: automotive, electronics, aerospace, biotechnology ones,
modern services as well as research and development. Investors from these sectors may apply for government
subsidies. Changes in the programme introduced in 2013 relaxed the conditions for support. It may also be
obtained by entrepreneurs operating in other sectors if they make investment worth at least PLN 750 million or if
they create at least 200 workplaces (prior to the changes, the investment must have been worth at least PLN 1
billion or at least 500 workplaces must have been created). The support does not apply to investments in the
districts in which the unemployment rate is below 75% of the national average unemployment rate with the
exception of production investments with minimum eligible costs of PLN 750 million and creating at least 200
new workplaces or with minimum eligible costs of PLN 500 million and creating at least 500 new workplaces as
well as investments in modern services and R&D sector. The support period cannot exceed 5 years. In the case
of production investments with minimum eligible costs of PLN 750 million and creating at least 200 new
workplaces or with minimum eligible costs of PLN 500 million and creating at least 500 new workplaces, this
period may be extended maximally to 2020. The level of support under this programme depends on the
assessment of the project. It may amount to 2-7.5% of the capital expenditures.
13.4.3.
FDI by country of capital origin
Geographical structure of foreign direct investments in Poland does not change much. The most active
foreign investors in Poland are mainly European countries, in particular EU Member States due to
Data on FDI inflow for 2014 will be published by the National Bank of Poland at the end of 2015.
In November 2014 in Białężyce near Września the cornerstone was laid for the construction of the Volkswagen factory. It
should be completed in the second half of 2016. Approx. 3 thousand workplaces will be created due to this investment. The
plant will annually produce 85 thousand of VW Crafter cars.
106
107
254
geographical proximity. Also in 2013, they invested the highest amounts in form of FDI in Poland almost EUR 4.1 billion108. In 2013, investments of the highest value originated from the European
countries: the United Kingdom (EUR 3.3 billion), Germany (EUR 1.9 billion), Switzerland (EUR 955
million), Austria (EUR 792 million) and the Netherlands (EUR 619 million).
Investors from other parts of the world were less active in 2013. Entities from both Americas invested in
Poland funds of total value of EUR 224.2 million, EUR 203 million of which came from the United States.
Small FDI flow came to Poland from Asia (EUR 30.4 million) and due to disinvestment of the large
number of economies (i.a. China, India, Japan) enterprises from Republic of Korea (EUR 133.7 million)
and Honking (EUR 55.8 million) were the most active investors from the Polish market.
On the other hand, African countries withdrew their funds (EUR -134.8 million). This resulted from
disinvestments of companies from the South Africa (EUR -41 million) and Seychelles (EUR -65.5
million) and, to a lesser extent, from Niger (EUR -13.8 million), Egypt (EUR -5.8 million) and Algeria
(EUR -5.5 million).
Chart 65 FDI Stock in Poland 2003-2013
180
160
146.3
bn EUR
140
120
100
111.6
2007
2008
135.1
122.8
92.4
74.5
80
60
117.0
154.2 160.5
61.9
44.5
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Polish and foreign direct investments in 2013, National Bank of Poland (NBP), 2015.
Taking into consideration geographical criterion, according to the balance as at the end of 2013, highest
liabilities had the EU-27 countries (90.3% of total liabilities, i.e. EUR 145 billion), including euro area
countries (EU-17) - EUR 129.2 billion (80% of total liabilities).
In the division which included certain countries, the greatest amount of liabilities due to foreign
investment was accounted for:
 Germany
EUR 27.5 billion,
17.1%;
 The Netherlands
EUR 25.9 billion,
16.1%;
 France
EUR 19.1 billion,
11.9%.
The United States is the most important investor outside Europe. It is worth to emphasize that if the
country of residence of the direct investor was adopted as criterion, the FDI inflow from the United
States would be over twice higher (approx. EUR 16.8 billion). Basing on a such criterion, the United
The difference between general value of FDI inflow to Poland and value of investments from EU countries stems from the
fact that non-EU-residents withdrew their funds from Poland.
108
255
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
States would be on the second position, behind Germany. The United States makes its investments
through subsidiaries located in other countries, like the Netherlands and Luxembourg, which leads to
diminishing their role (statistically) as an investor in Poland. Significant FDI were made also by
companies from Japan (EUR 1.1 billion), the Republic of Korea (EUR 751 million), Hong Kong (EUR
191 million) and China (EUR 77 million).
Table 96 Geographical breakdown of the FDI inflow into Poland by countries of investment capital origin
and the level of liabilities as at the end of 2013 (in EUR million)
No.
Country
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
Europe,
8,942
10,680
15,480
4,693
2,013
including:
1.1
EU-27
8,124
9,093
18,381
4,085
4,052
1.2
Austria
486
-257
424
648
792
1.3
Belgium
107
74
671
320
-134
1.4
Denmark
227
196
301
84
-7
1.5
Finland
-99
143
207
134
-263
1.6
France
1,375
876
1,998
3,132
106
1.7
Greece
-56
1
750
-355
181
1.8
Spain
394
313
4,466
344
-189
1.9
Ireland
225
290
-2,975
192
136
1.10
Luxembourg
1,250
2,021
5,377
-3,222
556
1.11
Netherlands
480
-792
35
-1,708
-1 843,
1.12
Germany
2,137
2,357
3,825
3,494
619
1.13
Portugal
55
213
-15
129
1,910
1.14
Sweden
940
1,055
2,615
-902
-500
1.15
United Kingdom
152
304
473
843
3,343
1.16
Italy
459
845
-81
300
-471
1.17
Cyprus
209
1,079
883
514
57
1.18
Slovenia
-70
-34
-29
-25
-7
1.19
Switzerland
185
-1,451
-2,628
402
955
1.20
Norway
64
103
100
50
240
1.21
Ukraine
-28
-7
-20
-57
57
1.22
Russia
-70
-23
19
20
-40
99
197
91
183
1.23
Hungary
23
1.24
Czech Republic
90
-26
-28
42
16
North
America
2
countries,
1,019
-158
-747
137
219
including:
2.1
USA
965
-81
-775
93
203
3.
Asia, including:
146
-244
-67
-5
30
3.1
China
-145
0
73
-116
-20
3.2
Singapore
26
34
41
-39
-51
3.3
Japan
177
-255
-105
91
-57
3.4
South Korea
-76
48
81
-14
134
TOTAL
9,863
10,473
14,832
4,716
2,208
Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP), Foreign direct investments in Poland in 2013, Warsaw 2015
* -Due to the change in methodology data are not fully comparable with previous year.
1
256
At the end of
2013*
150,726
145,003
6,551
3,294
2,832
1,562
19,122
47
10,480
1,280
15,508
25,890
27,465
1,730
5,325
6,697
9,241
6,034
55
4,574
1,017
-61
218
504
268
6,990
6,836
2,432
77
76
1,045
751
160,480
13.4.4.
The sectoral breakdown of FDI inflows
In the initial period of transformation, investments in Poland were mainly made in industrial sector.
However, the FDI structure became systematically predominated by services just as in the structure of
Polish economy. The services sector attracted approx. EUR 97.3 billion until the end of 2013 which
constituted approx. 60% of the total FDI in Poland.
Within services sector, the most fund were invested in projects related to finance and insurance services
(EUR 40.6 billion). Foreign insurance companies and banks started their activity on the Polish market.
Recently, entities from Asia, such as Bank of China, or from the United States, such as Goldman Sachs
and Citi Bank, and Western Europe, such as Credit Suisse and UBS, opened their offices in Poland. As
the level of complexity of processes carried out in Poland is increasing, our country is becoming an
attractive place also for global investment funds.
Significant position was obtained by foreign companies operating in telecommunication. Foreign retail
chains have also developed and i.a. following ones operate on the Polish market: Jeronimo Martins,
Metro AG, Carrefour, Lidl, Makro Cash&Carry, Auchan, Tesco. Important part of liabilities due to foreign
direct investments in Poland was constituted by funds invested in the manufacturing - it was over EUR
48.5 billion. As for the manufacturing, the greatest funds were invested in the production of foodstuffs,
beverages and of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.
Table 97 Sectoral structure of FDI inflow into Poland as well as liabilities as at the end of 2013 (in EUR
million)
Type of activity
Capital invested in 2013
(EUR mn)
Polish obligations due to
Structure
FDI at the end of 2013
in %
(EUR mn)
731.2
0.5
785.1
0.5
48,523.6
30.2
8,522.2
5.3
3,447.5
2.1
9,166.2
5.7
5,601.7
3.5
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
54.5
Mining and quarrying
-106.4
Manufacturing including production of:
1,477.6
Vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers
388.6
Chemical products
243.6
Food products and beverages, tobacco products
174.6
Electricity, gas and water supply
83.3
Water supply, sewerage
and waste management, remediation
-10.8
424.8
0.3
Construction
-318.4
7,156.7
4.5
Services, including:
1,174.4
97,314.2
60.6
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
1,629.9
23,709.6
14.8
351.6
2,301.1
1.4
Accomodation, food services
-38.8
594.3
0.4
2,195.0
8,249.7
5.1
-2,172.5
40,634.6
25.3
-410.4
10,254.1
6.4
-798.4
8,587.8
5.4
Services business administration
and support service activities
625.7
2,128.7
1.3
Education
0.3
14.1
0.0
Health care and social assistance
-217.5
597.9
0.4
Cultural activities, entertainment and recreation
39.5
157.3
0.1
Other service activities
-33.6
54.1
0.0
Unclassified
-146.0
-57.7
0.0
TOTAL
2,208
160,480
100.0
Source: Prepared by the Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of data provided by the
National Bank of Poland (NBP).
257
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Despite the fact that less FDI funds were located in automotive industry than in food industry,
automotive sector is one of the most important magnets for foreign companies. At the beginning of
2013, production of Cascada model was launched in Opel plant in General Motors Manufacturing
Poland in Gliwice. In 2014, new industrial investments were made in automotive sector emerged in
Poland, such as Volkswagen car plant in Września, Volkswagen's engine factory in Polkowice, the
Michelin farming tire factory in Tychy and automotive investments near Wałbrzych. According to KPMG,
development of automotive industry in Poland is driven by foreign investments. FDI inflow to automotive
sector in 2013 amounted to EUR 388 million, whereas total value of FDI in the sector as at the end of
2013 exceeded EUR 8.5 billion which constituted 17.6% of investment value in the entire manufacturing.
Investments in automotive sector play a crucial role in the entire economy due to strong connection of
this sector with co-operators and subcontractors. Production of the automotive industry is mostly
exported to the foreign markets. Share of this sector in total Polish export has consistently exceeded
10% in the recent years. Foreign companies which operate in the production of transport means are for
years among the largest exporters.
The largest international automotive concerns present on the Polish market include the following: Fiat,
General Motors, Isuzu, Volkswagen, Toyota, Volvo, Man and others. Apart from constructing production
plants, international automotive corporations engage also in research and development 109. Recently,
many investors were attracted by electronic sector which uses modern technologies due to foreign
investments.
Poland is also a significant manufacturer and exporter of electronic equipment and household
appliances. Companies, such as German BSH, Bosch and Siemens, Italian Indesit, Swedish Electrolux,
Korean LG and Samsung, have invested in this segment in our country. Investments in this sector are
crucial for the economy, because similar to automotive sector they involve further investments made by
business partners. Own R&D centres were established in Poland i.a. by Microsoft, Samsung
Electronics, General Electric, Siemens, Google and IBM.
13.4.5.
Investment attractiveness of Poland
For many years, Poland has been appreciated by foreign investors even though foreign investments
inflow to Poland was limited in 2012-2013. This is confirmed by results obtained by Poland in the reports
and rankings of investment attractiveness. Investment climate assessments by foreign entrepreneurs
are getting better from year to year.
Ernst & Young report entitled European Investment Attractiveness 2015 revealed that Poland was again
the leader in the Central-Eastern Europe in terms of investment attractiveness. In a study of investors’
perception, Poland surpassed by 24 percentage points the Czech Republic which was second in the
ranking. With 15,485 workplaces created due to FDI, our country was also at the second place in the
Central-Eastern Europe (after Russia) and third place in Europe in terms of workplaces created due to
FDI. Furthermore, in terms of the number of investment projects, Poland was first in the region (132
projects). Investments in automotive sector are of great importance, but its worth to be emphasised that
more and more investments in Poland include R&D investments110.
Automotive sector in Poland, PAIIIZ, 16.01.2014.
Ernst&Young Report entitled European Investment Attractiveness is a cyclical survey conducted since 2004.
808 respondents from all continents who are responsible for investments participated in the 2015 edition. The report includes
their opinions and numerical data on foreign investments in the year preceding the announcement of the report.
109
110
258
Also the results of survey conducted by UNCTAD among the heads of multinational corporations,
published in the World Investment Report 2014 confirm the high investment attractiveness of Poland.
Poland was 13th in the world (and thus it was classified one place higher compared to the previous year)
and 4th in Europe in terms of investment attractiveness for the years of 2014-2016. The newest version
of the World Investment Report (2015) places Poland among 20 countries attracting the highest foreign
direct investments (FDI inflow in 2014 at the level of USD 13.9 billion).
Positive conclusions can be drawn from the conjunctural survey conducted in the first half of 2015 by
Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Poland) in cooperation with nine bilateral
chambers operating within the International Group of Chambers of Commerce. Poland was again first in
this survey, ahead of the Czech Republic. Respondents have emphasised that the advantages of
Poland include i.a. membership in the EU, qualifications of employees, productivity and motivation of
personnel, quality of academic education as well as quality and availability of subcontractors, political
stability and improvement of infrastructure. Changes in infrastructure are becoming better assessed.
The greatest issue for the surveyed investors is constituted by tax system and efficiency of
administration as well as transparency of the public procurement system.
According to the authors of the report entitles Investment attractiveness of voivodeships and subregions
of Poland 2014, Śląskie voivodeship is the leader in terms of attractiveness. Dolnośląskie and
Mazowieckie voivodeships also occupy high positions. Podlaskie, Lubelskie and Świętokrzyskie
voivodeships are perceived worse in comparison to the rest of the country. The attractiveness
assessment includes the set of indicators such as costs and labour resources, activity of voivodeships
towards investors, transport availability, size of the market, development level of economic and social
infrastructure and safety level.
Data of the National Bank of Poland reveal that Mazowieckie voivodeships in the most attractive
voivodeship for the investors. Until the end of 2013, 55.3% of total FDI were located within this
voivodeship, i.e. EUR 88.8 billion. Wielkopolskie voivodeship attracted EUR 12.1 billion due to FDI,
whereas EUR 14.6 billion were invested in Śląskie voivodeship.
13.5. Innovativeness of Polish enterprises and their
environment
13.5.1.
Innovativeness of Polish enterprises
When compared to the Member States of the European Union, innovativeness of Polish economy is still
low. According to the most recent report Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015, reaching a synthetic
innovation result at level of 0.313 Poland is among countries depicted as moderate innovators. It was
classified on the 24th place in the ranking, i.e. one position higher in comparison to the ranking from the
previous year, ahead of Romania (0.204), Bulgaria (0.229), Latvia (0.272) and Lithuania (0.283).
However, changes in this year’s ranking result not only from changes of innovation activity of various
countries, but also from changes in measurement methodology, hence their comparability is limited.
In terms of most indicators, Poland falls below the average for UE-28 countries. Traditionally, the best
result was achieved in the case of indicators which assess availability of qualified human resources
(with the exception of the number of new PhDs). Poland’s score related to indicators, such as
employment in industries producing goods and knowledge-intensive services as well as export of such
products, was relatively good. Investment in research and development was still too low, especially in
259
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
the corporate sector, which was dominated by innovative expenditures for other purposes (non-R&D).
Poland achieved unsatisfactory result also in terms of number of patent applications in PCT procedure.
Consequently, it also achieved poor result in export of non-corporeal technology measured by the
revenues from the sale of patent rights and licenses. At the same time, it also made significant progress
in protection of the products of innovative activities with the use of trademarks and industrial designs.
Chart 66 Summary Innovation Index (SII) for selected countries
Source: Information have been developed on the basis of the reports published on the website of the European Commission
http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/index_en.htm INNOVATION UNION
SCOREBOARD 2015.
Expenditures incurred for innovative activity, especially expenditure on R&D, which constitute a sine qua
non condition of technological progress and emergence of radical innovation, are one of the indicators
most commonly used in the assessment of the economic innovativeness. Although Poland is constantly
increasing the expenditures for this purpose, its indicator of R&D intensity is still low. In 2013, the value
of gross domestic expenditure on research and development (GERD) amounted to over PLN 14 billion
which constituted 0.87% of GDP. The level of this indicator was two times lower than the purpose
adopted in the Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the Economy (1.7% in 2020). This was one of
the lowest results recorded in EU-28 countries. There was a particularly big distance between Poland
and leaders of innovation, such as the Scandinavian countries (on average 3.2%), Germany (2.85%)
and Austria (2.81%); it has also a lot to catch up with respect to some of the new Member States (Czech
Republic - 1.91%, Hungary - 1.41%)111.
The change in business breakdown structure related to expenditures for R&D is a positive trend
observed for several years. In 2013, almost 44% of total expenditures accounted for corporate sector,
whereas in 2004 this share did not exceed 30%. Participation of the firms in financing of internal
expenditures on R&D has also increased to the level of 37%, however the government sector was in the
lead in financing R&D. Most capital-intensive R&D (measured with the expenditures on R&D) were
conducted in three areas: engineering and technical science, life sciences, medical and health science,
whereas expenditures of the corporate sector were the highest in the first group (almost 2/3 of total
Eurostat, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6492099/9-17112014-BP-EN.PDF/7503059b-1d5e-4bb1b7a2-35136da1e02e.
111
260
expenditures)112. Indicator of the intensity of R&D expenditure in the sector of high and medium-high
technology amounted to 1.72% and 0.52% respectively. First of these sectors employed almost 3% of
employees in domestic economy and its share in export was relatively low (almost 7% in comparison to
14% in Germany and 15% in the Czech Republic).
Expenditures of the enterprises on innovative activity amounted to approx. PLN 30 billion and in 2013
they were lower by 15% when compared to the previous year, mainly due to decrease in expenses of
enterprises operating in the services sector. The highest share in total expenditures was traditionally
represented by expenditures for fixed assets, whereas 1/3 funds intended for innovative activity were
spent on research and development. The share of expenditures on training personnel involved in
innovation activities was still low, although these expenditures increased significantly in relation to the
previous years.
As for the sectoral structure of enterprises engaged in innovation activities, there were no major
changes. The highest expenditures were incurred by industrial enterprises which are engaged in
production of metals and metal products, electronic and optic equipment as well as machinery and
devices. Among the enterprises of the services sector, entities classified to the section information and
communication incurred the highest expenditures on the innovative activity.
As before, the main finance source for innovative activity were own funds of the enterprises which
constituted 75% of total expenditures. The next sources were bank loans, funds obtained from abroad
(EU funds) and funds from the state budget. Funds from risk capital funds were the least frequently
used financing source.
As far as technology transfer is concerned, the most common form of transactions involved the
purchase/sale of automation measures, followed by licenses and consulting services, whereas relatively
the rarest were orders of R&D. Enterprises have widely used both domestic and foreign licences. The
number of licences sold abroad was relatively low (63 licences) and constituted 3.5% of all sales
transactions. This suggests that R&D of foreign enterprises operating in Poland were mainly related to
solutions intended for the internal market and they were rarely transferred to the companies belonging
to given capital group or other enterprises.
The analysis of the results related to innovative activity revealed that Poland has made moderate
progress in this field in 2013. The number of domestic patent applications in the Patent Office dropped
by a few percent (4,237 applications) just as the number of reported industrial designs (1,317). At the
same time, the number of reported industrial designs (986) and trademarks (13,532) has grown. As far
as applications for inventions filed abroad are concerned, a decline was also registered (174
applications, 96 of which were made under the national procedure and 78 in PCT procedure). The
majority of the applications have been made by the domestic entities, whereas among non-residents the
largest number of inventions to be protected was reported by American and German entities. The field,
in which the applications have been filed most frequently, included chemistry, metallurgy, transport and
various industrial processes113.
112
113
Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), Science and technology in 2013, Warsaw 2014.
Ibidem.
261
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 98 Innovation indices for Poland and the EU
Indices EIS
Poland
EU-28
ENABLERS
Human resources
1.1.1 New doctorate graduates per 1000 inhabitants aged 25-34
0.6
1.8
1.1.2 Share (%) population completed tertiary education in the 25-34 age group
40.5
36.9
1.1.3 Share (%) youth in the age group 20-24 with upper secondary level
education
89.7
81
Open excellent and attractive research systems
1.2.1 International scientific co-publications
237
363
Share (%) scientific publications among top 10% most cited of all
1.2.2
3.8
11.0
scientific publications
Non-EU doctorate students as a% of the total number of doctorate
1.2.3
1.9
25.5
students
Finance and support
1.3.1 Public R&D expenditure in GDP (in %)
0.48
0.72
1.3.2 The share of venture capital investment in GDP (in %)
0.036
0.062
FIRM ACTIVITIES
Firm investments
2.1.1 Business R&D expenditure in GDP (in %)
0.38
1.29
2.1.2 Share Non-R&D innovation expenditure in sales revenue (in % )
1.04
0.69
Linkages & entrepreneurship
2.2.1 Share (%)SMEs innovating in-house in total number of SMEs
10.1
28.7
Share (%)Innovative SMEs collaborating with others in total number of
2.2.2
3.9
10.3
SMEs
2.2.3 Public-private co-publications per million inhabitants
4.7
50.3
Intellectual assets
2.3.1 The number of PCT patent applications for billion GDP (PPS)
0.42
3.78
The number of PCT patent applications in societal challenges for billion
2.3.2
0.09
0.98
GDP (PPS)
2.3.3 The number of Community trademarks for billion GDP (PPS)
3.61
5.83
2.3.4 The number of Community designs for billion GDP (PPS)
1.62
1.13
OUTPUTS
Innovators
SMEs introducing product or process innovations as a % of the total
3.1.1
13.1
30.6
number of SMEs
SMEs introducing marketing/organisational innovations as a % of the
3.1.2
14.2
36.2
total number of SMEs
3.1.3 Employment in fast-growing enterprises as a % of total employment
19.3
17.9
Economic effects
Share (%) employment in knowledge-intensive activities in the number of
3.2.1
9.6
13.8
employees in total
3.2.2 Share (%)medium and high-tech product exports in total exports
48.6
53.0
3.2.3 Share (%) knowledge-intensive services exports in total services exports
33.6
49.5
Share (%) sales of new to market and new to firm innovations the total
3.2.4
6.3
12.4
income of enterprises
3.2.5 Share (%) licence and patent revenues from abroad in GDP
0.06
0.65
Source: Information prepared on the basis of reports published on the European Commission website
http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/index_en.htm
INNOVATION
UNION
SCOREBOARD 2015.
In order to increase innovativeness level of Polish economy, it is necessary to enhance the cooperation
of enterprises from SME sector, cooperation and cluster relations as well as to raise awareness of
entrepreneurs in the field of industrial property protection and its benefits. It is also essential to
implement joint projects leading to increased cooperation between various participants in the innovation
system. Innovative police measures provided for in the Strategy for Innovation and Efficiency of the
Economy, in particular those aimed at stimulating cooperation in the R&D field both between enterprises
as well as enterprises and science sector will have to serve to meet these challenges.
262
13.5.2.
Institutional environment of Polish enterprises
Effective activity, innovativeness, development of Polish enterprises and thus their competitive position
largely depend on the institutional environment. The supporting system for entrepreneurship and
enterprises in Poland includes entities operating on three levels: national (i.a. The Ministry of Economy,
the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development), voivodeship (i.a. Marshal Offices, Regional Financing
Institutions) and local service providers. The last level comprises organisations registered in the
National System of Services for SMEs, including i.a. KSU Consultation Points, Loan Guarantee Funds,
Loan Funds, National Innovation Network, which in turn cooperate with other known networks, such as
Enterprise Europe Network. These entities are responsible for formulating strategy, programmes and
implementing activities to support entrepreneurship.
At the central level, policy for entrepreneurship in Poland is conducted by the following Ministries:
Ministry of Economy, of Infrastructure and Development, of Labour and Social Policy, of National
Education and of Science and Higher Education. At this level, the function of institution implementing
measures in this area and of analytical and research facility is performed by the Polish Agency for
Enterprise Development (PARP). PARP implements programmes for development of entrepreneurship
and enterprises which support i.a. innovative and R&D activities of the companies, internationalisation of
enterprises as well as regional development and development of human resources. The National Centre
for Research and Development (NCBiR) – Implementing Agency for the Ministry of Science and Higher
Education – supports also enterprises in developing their ability to create and use solutions based on
the research results.
At the regional level – an essential supporting link is constituted by the local government institutions.
Implementing measures are performed by marshal offices or their subordinate institutions. Apart from
promoting entrepreneurship in the regions, their main goal is to provide entrepreneurs and persons who
plan to commence business activity with reliable information about:
 supporting programmes implemented at the central and regional level;
 undertaking and conducting business activity;
 possibility to use consultation, training and finance assistance.
Direct service providers operate at the executive level, i.e. institutions and organisations specialised in
implementing instruments to support entrepreneurship. The National System of Services (KSU) plays a
particular role in this system. This is a network of approx. 230 organisations which cooperate with each
other and provide services for entrepreneurs and persons planning to commence business activity and
which is coordinated by PARP. The mission of KSU is to develop entrepreneurship by ensuring highquality services in key fields which require state aid. The task of KSU is to provide comprehensive
services related to business activity and possibility of using external sources for its financing. KSU
comprises KSU Consultation Points, National Innovation Network, loan and guarantee funds as well as
entities which provide system services and test pilot services.
System and pilot services provided by KSU are offered according to uniform and monitored standards;
determining in particular the scope and result of given service. The crucial element of the standard is the
fact that prior to implementation of a service a consultant diagnoses customer’s needs and selects the
scope of services appropriate for their needs. KSU services are free of charge (information services) or
subsidized (consulting services related to widely understood development of entrepreneurship and
instruments to support the entrepreneurs). Entities to provide these services are selected among those
which meet the KSU standard through national competitions.
263
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The National Innovation Network (KSI) is a group of KSU service providers who offer pro-innovation
consulting services in accordance with specified and tested standard114. Currently, there are 18 Centres
of the National Innovation Network KSU and their services are mainly related to conducting
technological audit and servicing technology transfer process. Since July 2013, new service consultancy
in the implementation of innovations was made available to the entrepreneurs (under the PARP system
project entitled: KSI KSU Consultancy for innovative ones, financed from the ERDF funds under
Measure 5.2 of OP IE). This service comprises two stages: audit of innovativeness and consultancy
related to implementation of innovation. Entrepreneurs will be able to use it until the end of June 2015.
Pro-innovation consulting services provided by KSI KSU Centres reach mainly innovation-active micro,
small and medium-sized companies who have no funds to finance such services. Therefore these
measures fill the market gap which required public intervention.
In the context of business environment institutions, it is also worth to mention the effects of
implementation of multi-annual programme Participation of Poland in Competitiveness and Innovation
Framework Programme in the years of 2008-2014 (CIP) extended to the end of 2014 pursuant to the
Resolution of the Council of Ministers No. 4/2014 of 7 th of January 2014. The extension of the
programme resulted from the need to provide in 2014 information about financing instrument of CIP
available to the entrepreneurs which will be offered under the subsequent European Union framework
programmes. Extending the implementation period of the above-mentioned Programme allowed to
continue financing of the activity of the National Contact Points for finance instruments provided by EU
programmes associated with the Polish Bank Association which conducts information, promotional and
consulting activities related to finance instruments of selected European Union programmes including
also continued implementation of the programmes of particular CIP and also for activity of the centres
belonging to the Enterprise Europe Network.
National Contact Point for finance instruments provided by EU programmes deals with promotion of
instruments and measures implemented both for financial perspective of 2007-2013 which will remain
active on the market until 2020 and for finance instruments implemented under the subsequent financial
perspective, i.e. under Multi-Annual Programme entitled Participation of Poland in the Programme for
Competitiveness of Enterprises and SMEs (COSME), and in finance instruments of EU programmes
supporting competitiveness of enterprises in the years of 2014-2020. National Contact Point promotes
the above-mentioned activities among potential beneficiaries during conferences/seminars/meetings
through prepared information materials, organisation of information stands during national events
intended for entrepreneurs or supporting institutions as well as by using for this purpose various media
channels.
In 2014, National Contact Point for finance instruments provided by EU programmes organised 84
conferences, seminars, training sessions, workshops and information days regarding EU framework
programmes for approx. 64.5 thousand participants, published 22 press articles on framework
programmes, provided over 400 information, consultation, advises and over 140 telephone
consultations to the potential beneficiaries of the programme, established approx. 450 contacts with
domestic and foreign institutions, organised 17 information and promotional stands at trade fairs and
conferences, developed 11 promotional publications printed in over 9 thousand copies.
This standard is specified in the Regulation of the Minister of Economy of 24 May 2011 on the National System of
Services for Small and Medium-Sized Companies.
114
264
Box 24 CIP Programme for the years of 2008-2014 and COSME Programme for the years of 2014-2020
CIP consists of three detailed programmes:



The Entrepreneurship and Innovation Programme (EIP), covering activities in favour of entrepreneurship,
small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, competitiveness and innovation;
The Information Communication Technologies-Policy Support Programme (ICT-PSP), aimed at fast
implementation of ICTs and also at stimulation of innovation through extension of the scope of technologies
applied;
The Intelligent Energy Europe Programme, (IEE), covering activities aimed at improvement of the energy
efficiency and rational consumption of energy resources, promotion of new and renewable energy sources
and support of diversification of these sources.
Since 2015, new EU Framework Programme entitled Participation of Poland in the Programme for
Competitiveness of Enterprises and SMEs (COSME) and in finance instruments of EU programmes supporting
competitiveness of enterprises in the years of 2014-2020 will be implemented and it will constitute a continuation
of the majority of aid instruments which will facilitate access to financing and activity of Enterprise Europe
Network and to activities implemented in the previous perspective.
The majority of aid instruments facilitating the entrepreneurs the access to financing and activity of Enterprise
Europe Network providing services to the entrepreneurs will be continued under this programme.
The following finance instruments are offered under new EU framework programmes:




Programme for the Competitiveness of Enterprises and SMEs (COSME);
Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (Horizon 2020);
Programme for Employment and Social Innovation (EaSI);
Programme for support to the culture and audio-visual sectors (Creative Europe).
Enterprise Europe Network (EEN)
Enterprise Europe Network Centres functions since 2008 and in the period of 2008-2014 it was financed
from the funds of Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme (CIP). Since 2015, the
Network is financed under the Programme for the Competitiveness of Enterprises and SMEs (COSME).
This is an EU programme aimed at increasing competitiveness and sustainability of enterprises,
especially of SMEs.
The following goals to be implemented have been determined under COSME programme:
 enhancement of SMEs access both to financing with own capital and to debt financing;
 enhancement of access to the markets, in particular EU markets, also at the global level;
 improvement of framework competitiveness conditions and sustainability of EU enterprises, in
particular SMEs, including in the tourism sector;
 promoting entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial culture.
The activity of Polish Enterprise Europe Network centres115 constitutes an important to support the
competitiveness aimed to raise innovativeness level and internationalization of Polish small and
medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Currently, approx. 600 centres of this network operate in over 50
countries in the entire world. In Poland there are 30 of them.
Enterprise Europe Network provides free of charge services to people who plan to commence business
activity and to enterprises which already operate in the following areas:
1) information and consulting activities in the scope of European Union law and policies, business
activity conducted abroad, access to financing sources, technology transfer and participation in
programmes and projects financed by the European Union;
115
Contact data to Polish Enterprise Europe Network centres are listed at the website www.een.org.pl.
265
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
2) aid in searching for foreign trade partners through: supporting participation of Polish companies
in trade fairs, trade missions and meetings as well as conducting and providing entrepreneurs
with cooperation offers database through which Polish SMEs can find business partners or post
their offer for cooperation;
3) answering to queries of entrepreneurs from Member States of the European Union, relating to
formal and legal requirements for business activity in Poland and informing the representatives
of foreign companies about possible cooperation with Polish enterprises and institutions;
4) promotion of EU finance programmes and instruments (including Horizon 2020 programme in
cooperation with national contact points and structural funds);
5) information and consulting services related to improving managerial skills in order to increase
SMEs competitiveness, financing possibilities, access to financing and related coaching and
mentor support system as well as to expert knowledge of issues regarding energetic
effectiveness, climate and natural environment;
6) services in the field of technology transfer, research and development, innovation, knowledge,
including technology audits and information and consulting activities regarding protection of
intellectual property. An important part of these services is constituted by a database of
technological offers in which Polish enterprises may place information about technology they
possess or report the demand for it. The offers in English are available at the website:
http://een.ec.europa.eu/services/technology-transfer.
The variety of services provided by the Enterprise Europe Network centres allow to reach to many
enterprises which initially are interested only in access to legal information or in participating in the
cooperative meeting. In the course of further cooperation, Network centres learn more about the
enterprises’ needs which allows them to offer another services available at Enterprise Europe Network,
e.g. conducting technological audit or placing company’s offer in the database of technological offers.
In the years of 2008-2014, over 60.4 thousand persons attended in the training sessions and seminars
organized by the network, 66.5 thousand participated in the online training sessions organised by PARP
(participants of online seminars and users of lectures from the series "School for Exporter”), whereas
13.4 thousand entrepreneurs obtained support in the field of internationalisation and innovation, 4.7
thousand entrepreneurs took part in broker meetings and economic missions organised by the Network.
Additionally, over 30 thousand queries sent by entrepreneurs were answered. It was also calculated that
almost 1.2 million users used Polish website of the Enterprise Europe Network.
In 2014, EEN services were used by over 14 million persons. Over 8.8 thousand persons participated in
the local and regional events organised by the Network. Services related to technological audit and
business analysis were used by 339 recipients. 161 partner agreements (business, for technology
transfer, related to projects for 7.PR) were concluded with participation of the Network. The centres
provided SMEs with over 3.6 answers to queries related to European Union law, export, access to
financing sources, technology transfer and participation in programmes and projects financed by the
European Union. Over 670 enterprises participated in broker events and foreign missions organised by
Enterprise Europe Network. 897 national partnership offers were distributed though the databases. Over
1.6 thousand foreign queries were obtained. In turn Polish companies submitted over 1.4 thousand
queries regarding foreign partnership offers.
266
Box 25 Technology park
The technology park116 is a separate entity aimed at the development of the activity of entrepreneurs using
modern technologies, in particular small and medium enterprises, based on the use of separate buildings and
technical infrastructure on a contractual basis. By implementing comprehensive support, technology parks offer
the entrepreneurs also advisory services related to development, technology transfer and converting the results
of research and development in technological innovation.
In 2014, there were 42 technology parks. Most of them are located in Wielkopolskie and Śląskie
voivodeship (6 in each one) and in Dolnośląskie voivodeship (5). And the least of them are located in
Lubelskie, Łódzkie, Mazowieckie, Opolskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie and Zachodniopomorskie
voivodeships (one in each). In the Opolskie voivodeship, there is no technology park.
Table 99 Technology parks in Poland
Year
1995
2000
Techonology parks
1
3
Source: PARP (Polish Agency of Enterprises Development).
2004
12
2007
15
2010
24
2012
40
2014
42
State policy concerning support the activities of business environment institutions, i.a. technology parks,
has impact on two development spheres of these centres. Mainly, this is a support for investments and
development of infrastructure. On the other hand, with use of various tools, the centres develop their
potential and scope of services addressed to the entrepreneurs.
As a result of multi-annual investment cycle, well-equipped, specialist and unique facility was
established in Poland for the most innovative companies in the regions. Therefore, financial measures
are intended not only to construct the infrastructure but also to equip the parks. Currently, approx. 1.1
thousand companies which hire over 11 thousand employees operate in Polish parks.
13.6. Development of enterprises
13.6.1.
Economic regulations
Regulatory environment remains one of the key factors hampering the growth of entrepreneurship in
Poland. Too complicated and obscure law is mentioned in public polls as a barrier to starting up and
running a business. If one manages to wade through formalities, it turns out that the law frequently
imposes excessive obligations on the entrepreneurs, causing them to incur unjustified costs – such a
state of affairs is still a common experience among many entrepreneurs. By their very nature,
enterprises are not prepared for regulatory risks, therefore they perceive frequent legal changes as
actions aimed against them. For the above reason, legislative initiatives should respond to their
expectations, whereas transparency and uniformity of regulations should eliminate any doubts as to the
interpretation of the law so that enterprises can operate on the basis of clear and comprehensible legal
standards. The quality of the regulatory environment constitutes one of the basic dimensions and
indicators of the functioning of a modern state applying the principle of the rule of law.
In 2014 and in the beginning of 2015 activities were continued in the area of improving the regulatory
environment and the institutional environment of business. The activities are part of the 2015 Better
Regulations Programme adopted by the Council of Ministers on 22nd of January 2013, the main
objective of which is to provide systemic and organisational solutions necessary for the creation and
evaluation of the law based on analytical evidence, in particular to reduce costs of running a business
116
Innovation centres in Poland (including innovation incubators) - Research report 2014, PARP, Warsaw 2014, p. 9.
267
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
and increase competitiveness of the Polish economy. They predominantly focused on economic law
review in respect of the most burdensome regulations constituting major barriers to the development of
the entrepreneurship and to the implementation of relevant legal regulations making running a business
easier.
Between 2011 and 2014 four deregulatory initiatives were carried out, as part of which 300 amendments
to over 100 acts were made, and financial benefits for economy arising out of the solutions implemented
may reach the level of several billions of Polish zlotys, in particular in the form of savings from the
reduction of red tape. The solutions implemented address specific barriers to business activity identified
in practice.
(a) Under the first of the said initiatives (the Act of 25th of March 2011 on limiting the administrative
barriers for citizens and entrepreneurs) a number of changes have been introduced, including,
inter alia, the option for citizens and entrepreneurs to submit declarations in lieu of the
previously required certificates (the principle requiring state institutions to put their trust in
citizens and the principle requiring administrative authorities to obtain as much information as
possible on their own, from other authorities) as well as consumer leasing, i.e. the possibility of
entering into leasing agreements with individuals who do not pursue business activities.
(b) Under the second initiative (the Act of 16th of September 2011 on the reduction of certain
obligations of citizens and entrepreneurs), certain disclosure requirements imposed upon
entrepreneurs have been abolished, allowing for a decrease in the costs of business activities.
(c) The third initiative (the Act of 16th of November 2012 on the restriction of certain administrative
obligations in the economy) resulted in the introduction of solutions aimed at improving the
financial liquidity of enterprises, the abolition of certain administrative obligations (disclosure
requirements) as well as the simplification of the regulatory environment.
(d) Another initiative (the Act of 7th of November 2014 on facilitating business activity) comprised,
among other things, the so-called Port Package supporting the competitiveness of Polish ports
through the extension of deadlines for VAT payments in the case of import by Authorized
Economic Operators (AEO) and shortening the time for border control in seaports to 24 h; it
also maintained the validity of medical certificates in the case of changing jobs and provided
entrepreneurs with easier access to financing by creating wider opportunities to obtain
guarantees of the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management and
provincial funds by entrepreneurs, excise tax reliefs (e.g. by reducing tax rates in the case of
trading in fuel oils) and exemptions for employees from income tax on transport to work by
means of public transport arranged by the employer – fewer administrative obligations, easier
tax settlement.
Furthermore, in December 2014 the Act of 24th of April 2014 on the standardisation of specific document
specimens in administrative procedures entered into force. The aim of the Act is to enable online
submission of applications in 64 administrative procedures. The Act imposes an obligation to define and
make available specimens of documents in electronic form for specific administrative procedures. It will
implement specimens of documents that will be uniform in the entire country, especially as regards
issuance of permits, entries in registers or issuance of certificates. The standardisation of specimens of
documents in administrative procedures will make it possible to put them into an electronic form. At the
same time, the shorter application examination procedure will speed up the start of business activity.
Another important step towards a better regulatory environment is the development of guidelines for the
draft Business Activity Law Act which were adopted by the Council of Ministers on 12 th of May 2015.
The Business Activity Law will replace the Act of 2004 on Freedom of Business Activity and will
strengthen rights of entrepreneurs. The act will highlight and systematize basic principles for pursuing
268
business activity, constituting a catalogue of fundamental rights of entrepreneurs. Moreover, the act will
determine specific rules for administration authorities operating in the area of economy.
The legislative amendments proposed are expected to modernise legal framework of business activity in
Poland. It is proposed to provide a more ordered structure of the regulations by way of making the main
act of economic law a catalogue of rights and legal institutions together with the introduction of specific
solutions. The draft version puts the main focus on the following objectives:
 new rules strengthening the position of an entrepreneur, e.g.: favourable interpretation and
presumption of fairness principle, legitimate expectation principle (an authority cannot take an
entrepreneur by surprise), principle of submitting information once, obligation to set reasonable
deadlines for entrepreneurs;
 introduction of mediation into administrative procedures related to pursuing business activity;
 making the relationship between an entrepreneur and administrative authorities more friendly by
applying the presumption of fairness principle and promoting cautioning instead of penalising
where possible;
 creating a complete regulation where basic restrictions of business activity would be explicitly
listed;
 involvement of entrepreneurs’ organisations in the implementation of certain public objectives;
 implementation of directives on penalties.
At the same time, draft amendments to the act regulating the operation of economic intelligence
bureaus are being developed. The aim of the amendments is to improve access to comprehensive
information on payment history for small and medium enterprises, reduce costs of access to
complementary information on payment history, enhance protection of debtors against unjustified entry
to the debtor register and enable the development of better databases including information on liabilities
allowing better verification of potential contractors and improved payment reliability. The effect of the
changes shall be creation of a common, inexpensive and efficient system for exchanging information
about payment history which will constitute an effective mechanism for reducing risks related to running
a business. The draft guidelines were adopted by the Council of Ministers on 24 th of February 2015.
In addition, on 18th of February 2014 the so-called “two dates” principle was adopted by the resolution of
the Council of Ministers. It means that in principle draft legal acts (draft acts and draft regulations)
providing for terms and conditions of pursuing business activity come into force twice a year, i.e. on 1 st
January and 1st of June, with vacatio legis of at least one month. Any derogation from the principle will
be exceptional and motivated by important reasons. The aim of the solution adopted is to improve the
operations of enterprises, especially micro-, small, and medium-sized companies, by reasonable and
efficient activity planning, to shorten the time devoted to analysis and adopting to new regulations, to
reduce the costs of pursuing business activity as well as to increase the confidence of citizens and
entrepreneurs in the state.
Additional actions have also been taken in the scope of improving the quality of regulations, including
reducing the regulatory burden. The Ministry of Economy and the Chancellery of the Prime Minister
have prepared a document aimed at giving the process of assessing the impact of legal regulations a
more ordered structure and ensuring that the impact is correctly assessed at the stage of developing
legal solutions (predicted impact) as well as their application (observed impact). Such an assessment,
when carried out correctly, provides materials arguments in favour of the implementation of a given legal
act, prevents adoption of unnecessary regulations, and improves the effectiveness and transparency of
the law. In particular, the guide is addressed to administration employees working on new legal
regulations. It consists of the general part where impact assessment issues are introduced, and the
specific part where rules and practical hints for the preparation of high-quality impact assessments and
269
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
carrying out of public consultations with citizens, including entrepreneurs, are presented. The document
includes a detailed instruction on how to fill impact assessment forms standardised since 1st of January
2014, i.e. regulatory test, regulatory impact assessment and act health check (the so-called ex-post
regulatory impact assessment). The document was adopted by the Council of Ministers on 5 th of May
2015. It replaced previous recommendations concerning regulatory impact assessment and public
consultations in the legislative process. It is planned that the document will be made available on an
interactive platform, i.e. on an online platform, and linked to other websites featuring up-to-date
examples, good practices and detailed approaches to carrying out analyses and public consultations.
Additional information, useful when carrying out an impact assessment, is available in the so-called
Impact Assessment knowledge base which can be accessed through the Ministry of Economy’s
website117. In mid-July 2014 the base was upgraded. All materials are published in one of five sections:
practical information, regulatory burden, analytical tools, examples, and publications and other
information.
Furthermore, as part of a pilot project under the 2015 Better Regulation Programme, the Polish Agency
for Enterprise Development carried out detailed analyses of the impact of proposed solutions on micro-,
small and medium enterprises as part of impact assessment (the so-called SME test). In 2014, such an
analysis was conducted three times: in the case of the draft guidelines for the draft Act amending the
Act on Special Economic Zones, the draft guidelines for the draft Act Amending the Act on PublicPrivate Partnership and the Public Finance Act and proposed amendments to the Labour Code and
certain other acts concerning the reduction of the burden placed on employers with regard to keeping
personnel records. A preliminary analysis was also carried out in the case of guidelines for the Act on
social enterprise and supporting social economy. In 2015, detailed assessments of the impact on the
SME sector are continued.
In April 2015, a pilot online consultation system was launched (www.konsultacje.gov.pl). It is used for
publishing selected legislative and non-legislative initiatives which, among others, are controversial and
raise considerable public interest. In 2014, the entities authoring drafts published in the system included:
the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Labour and Social
Policy, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Administration and Digitization. The system of online
consultations facilitates the participation of stakeholders, in particular entrepreneurs, in the legislative
process, as they are able to submit their observations and opinions via the Internet.
Another aspect of running a business is disputes between economic entities. In order to lighten the
courts’ load and facilitate the resolution of disputes, works on the act supporting amicable dispute
resolution in economic matters have been initiated. The aim of the draft act, accepted by the Council of
Ministers on 12th of May 2015, is to promote mediation and other out-of-court dispute resolution
methods, in particular in the case of disputes between entrepreneurs, because one of the major barriers
which negatively influences the popularity of mediation in Poland is the lack of knowledge about such an
approach. New regulations are intended to raise entrepreneurs’ awareness of mediation as an
alternative to court proceedings in the first place and to make it possible to resolve a dispute in a more
inexpensive, quicker and less formalized manner.
In addition, in order to increase the popularity of mediation, incentives of economic nature have been
introduced; they comprise waiving the court fee for filing an out-of-court settlement concluded in the
presence of a mediator for approval, the possibility of exempting from the costs of court mediation for
the poor or refunding court fee in the case of reaching a settlement before the court assigns a day for
trial. The incentives are designed to encourage parties to make attempts to resolve their dispute
117
http://www.mg.gov.pl/Prawo+dla+przedsiebiorcy/Ocena+Wplywu+regulacji+baza+wiedzy.
270
amicably, both before they file a case in court and when the proceedings are pending, at the earliest
stage possible.
There are also 6 Mediation and Arbitration Centres (in Białystok, Katowice, Kraków, Lublin, Poznań and
Warsaw)118. Their aim is to promote information on benefits of amicable dispute resolution and to carry
out mediation procedure in individual cases. Major benefits of Mediation and Arbitration Centres include:
 reduction of number of cases settled by civil and economic divisions of common courts;
 quicker examination procedure in common courts due to a lower number of cases and broader
use of referral to mediation among judges;
 considerable reduction of dispute resolution costs, in particular in the case of disputes between
entrepreneurs;
 fact-based analysis of reasons behind a dispute and possibility of further cooperation between
the conflicted parties;
 improvement of legal culture, in particular the culture of resolving disputes between Polish
entrepreneurs;
 promotion of alternative dispute resolution among Polish entrepreneurs and lawyers, including
judges.
13.6.2.
Barriers to the development of entrepreneurship
Surveys are important sources of information on barriers encountered by entrepreneurs when running a
business. Therefore, the Ministry of Economy has been carrying out regular surveys among SMEs for
many years. The results of the recent survey conducted by the Ministry of Economy 119 show that in
2014 the assessment of the legal and institutional environment in which enterprises operated did not
change radically against previous years, although a slight deterioration was observed in the second half
of the year.
In the view of the entrepreneurs surveyed, the most significant barrier to the pursuit of economic
activities is the level of taxes and fees imposed under the provisions of applicable laws – an opinion
shared by 38% of all surveyed entrepreneurs in the second half of 2014, which is by 1-2 percentage
point(s) higher than in the first half of 2014 and the second half of 2013. 16% of respondents pointed
towards insufficiently high turnover, and the percentage is lower than in the previous survey. Complex
legal regulations constituted a barrier for 5% of the surveyed, although only few years ago
entrepreneurs indicated it as the third most important barrier.
Competition from small enterprises (6% of all indications) and large corporations (also 6%) were further
significant barriers indicated by respondents. Although the percentage of respondents pointing at these
barriers has become steady over recent years, it still remains relatively high. The share of entrepreneurs
indicating red tape as a barrier remained at the level of 4-6%.
The number of respondents who pointed towards labour costs, personnel qualifications and venues
remains low.
Within the micro-enterprises group, the amounts payable due to taxes and fees provided for under the
provisions of applicable laws constituted a problem for 40% of all respondents in the second half of
2014. Low turnover was the second most important barrier, indicated by 17% of the surveyed, while
More information available at: http://www.caim.gov.pl.
Trendy rozwojowe sektora MSP w ocenie przedsiębiorców w drugiej połowie 2014 roku (no. 1/2015), Ministry of
Economy, June 2015.
118
119
271
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
other barriers are less important for the smallest companies – they are indicated by only a couple of per
cent of the surveyed.
Among owners of small businesses, amounts payable due to taxes and fees provided for by the
provisions of applicable laws were indicated by 21% of respondents as the most important barrier. Time
of waiting for payments from contractors and insufficient turnover was indicated as essential barriers to
the growth of small enterprises by 13% of respondents each.
For owners of medium-sized enterprises, as was the case with micro- and small enterprises, the most
important obstacles were the amount of taxes and fees provided for by law (25%) and competition from
other small and medium enterprises indicated by every fourth respondent.
Chart 67 The most important barriers to the development of entrepreneurship in the second half of 2014
Other
Hard to say
Housing conditions
Payment delays from contractors
Competition of large companies
Total
Medium-sized
Small
Micro
Corruption
Competition of small companies
Bureaucracy
Law regulations
Labor costs
Unskilled labor
Small turnover
Taxes and other payments
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: Survey of the SME sector. Ministry of Economy, June 2015.
The results of the survey show that regulations which determine the pursuit of business activities are
assessed more negatively. In the second half of 2014, nearly two thirds of the surveyed had a negative
opinion on the tax law regulations, which was one of the highest results in the survey’s history. It might
be noted that the number of such opinions has been constantly growing since 2009. A similar recordbreaking number of negative opinions (nearly 40% of survey participants) was recorded in the case of
labour law.
The structure of responses to questions on the regulations and procedures pertaining to economic
courts has stabilised over the recent years (with nearly half of all responses being negative and 10%
positive). The number of negative responses pertaining to regulations related to the supervision of
business activities was considerably smaller in the survey concerning the second half of the year.
From the first half of 2012, the number of negative responses with respect to regulations and
procedures pertaining to settlements with contractors was decreasing and, in the second half of 2014,
such responses were given by 31% of all respondents.
272
Chart 68 Assessment of legal provisions regulating business activity in the second half of 2014
Very good
Very bad
60%
Bad
Moderate
Very bad
Very good
100%
100%
80%
80%
Bad
Moderate
Good
2014.2
2014.1
2010.1
2009.2
2009.1
2008.2
2006.2
2014.2
2014.1
2013.2
2013.1
2012.2
2011.2
Good
2012.1
2011.1
2010.2
2009.2
2008.2
Very bad
2010.1
0%
2009.1
0%
2008.1
20%
2007.2
20%
2007.1
40%
2006.2
40%
Labour law
2008.1
Tax law
2013.2
60%
2013.1
80%
Very good
2012.2
80%
Good
2011.2
100%
Moderate
2012.1
100%
Bad
2011.1
Good
2010.2
Moderate
2007.2
Bad
2007.1
Very bad
Very good
60%
Economic judiciary
Very bad
Bad
Moderate
Good
Very good
2014.2
2014.1
2013.2
2013.1
2012.2
2012.1
2011.2
2011.1
2010.2
2010.1
2009.1
2008.2
2008.1
2007.2
2006.2
2014.2
2014.1
2013.2
2013.1
2012.2
2012.1
2011.2
2011.1
2010.2
2010.1
2009.2
2009.1
0%
2008.2
0%
2008.1
20%
2007.2
20%
2007.1
40%
2006.2
40%
2007.1
Control of economic activity
2009.2
60%
Assesment of changes in second half of 2014:
100%
0%
80%
worsening no change improving
25%
50%
75%
100%
tax law
labor market law
60%
Settlements with contractors
economic judiciary
40%
control of economic activity
settlements with contractors
20%
opening and closing of a firm
Overall economic activity
2014.2
2014.1
2013.2
2013.1
2012.2
2012.1
2011.2
2011.1
2010.2
2010.1
2009.2
2009.1
2008.2
2008.1
2007.2
2007.1
2006.2
0%
Source: Survey of the SME sector, Ministry of Economy, June 2015.
In the second half of 2014, less favourable provisions in the field of tax law came to the attention of
slightly fewer respondents (28%) than in the first half of the year. Changes in the supervision of
business activities were negative in the view of 20% of all surveyed, while 19% of them were of the
same opinion in the case of changes in the economic law as a whole. At the same time, more
273
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
favourable regulations in the scope of setting up and closing enterprises were noticed by 20% of the
entrepreneurs surveyed. In 2014, most entrepreneurs (70-72%) did not notice any changes in the
regulations concerning establishing and winding up companies. Those entrepreneurs who noticed some
changes found them positive rather than negative.
13.6.3.
Entrepreneurship support instruments
13.6.3.1. Instruments supporting the innovativeness of enterprises
Entrepreneurs can take advantage of a number of instruments which support R&D&I activities. Including
in particular non-refundable grants, loans, guarantees, and venture capital funds. Comprehensive
knowledge regarding current and planned support instruments is provided within the framework of the
Enterprise Development Programme until 2020 adopted by the Council of Ministers on 8th of April
2014.
As regards financing of research, development and innovation activities under European funds, the
2007-2013 Innovative Economy Operational Programme (IE OP), is of prime importance. The
programme is addressed mainly to entrepreneurs from the SME sector, institutions supporting the
emergence of innovative companies as well as business environment institutions and their networks.
The IE OP offers support for measures in the area of product innovation, as well as innovation of
processes, marketing and organisation, which will, directly or indirectly, contribute to the establishment
and development of innovative enterprises. The IE OP funds were also used in 2014.
Under Measure 4.4 of the IE OP, the support was offered in the form of grants intended for investment
projects related to the application of new technologies, products, services or organisational solutions
(technological and organisational solutions applied in the world no longer than 3 years). The support
could also be used for training and advisory activities necessary for the purposes of investment projects.
The projects aim, among others, to create new jobs related to new investments and refer to micro-,
small and medium enterprises. From early 2014 to 9th of June 2015, 374 projects were carried out under
Measure 4.4 based on co-financing agreements. Nearly PLN 2.1 billion was disbursed.
Furthermore, projects aimed at exercising the right to protect industrial property (inventions, utility
models and industrial designs) are financed under Sub-measure 5.4.1 of the IE OP Support for
obtaining/executing industrial property protection. It covers costs borne with relation to the compilation
of application documents and carrying out procedures before competent industrial property protection
authorities connected with obtaining industrial property protection rights. The support is intended for
micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises and takes the form of grants. From early 2014 to 9 th of
June 2015, 494 projects were carried out totalling PLN 32.6 million.
In 2014 the implementation of a number of programmes financed from the state budget was carried on.
The objective of the Innovation Voucher programme is to encourage entrepreneurs to establish
contact with the scientific community. The programme is available to small and medium enterprises who
have not taken advantage of the services of any science and research facility with respect to R&D
operations during the year in which their application is submitted and within 3 calendar years preceding
the year of submission of such application. The support as part of the innovation voucher covers
services in the scope of innovation - related to the implementation or development of a product or
technology. An entrepreneur may obtain support in the maximum amount of PLN 15 thousand. The
funds earmarked for the Programme amount to approx. PLN 3.1 million. In 2014, 401 entrepreneurs
submitted their applications for a total amount of approx. PLN 5.9 million. Support agreements were
signed with 200 entrepreneurs for a total amount of about PLN 2.9 million. From the beginning of the
274
implementation of the programme, i.e. from 2008, until the end of 2014, support was granted to 2,668
enterprises, for a total amount of PLN 39.7 million. In 2015, the implementation of the Innovation
Voucher programme was discontinued.
In 2014, the second edition of the Support under the Grand Voucher programme with the budget of
PLN 3.0 million was conducted. The support provided under this programme is intended for the
purchase of a service consisting in the development of a new product, a new design or a new
production technology or in a significant improvement in a product or a production technology. The
programme is addressed to micro- and small enterprises engaged in production activities, while the
service provider might be a scientific entity of A+, A or B scientific category. The amount of support per
entrepreneur cannot exceed PLN 50 thousand. In the course of the second edition of the Programme,
as many as 142 applications were evaluated for the total amount of approx. PLN 6.1 million. Support
agreements were signed with 67 entrepreneurs for a total amount of about PLN 2.8 million. The Support
under the Grand Voucher programme is continued in 2015. The funds earmarked for its implementation
total approx. PLN 4.1 million. As a result of the call for applications at the end of Q1 2015, a total of 295
applications were registered for the total amount of approx. PLN 12.4 million, i.e. 301% of the available
allocation.
However, due to the impact this instrument has on stimulating and maintaining cooperation among
enterprises and R&D units aimed at the development of their innovative potential, it is planned that the
programme will be continued under the Smart Growth Operational Programme – Sub-measure 2.3.2
Innovation Vouchers for SMEs. The objective of the instrument is to stimulate the cooperation of the
scientific environment with entrepreneurs by financing services for micro-, small and medium-sized
enterprises consisting of the development of a new or significantly improved service, production
technology or design. The instrument will boost the use of R&D services by enterprises and improve
their ability to pursue innovative activities. Provided services will be tailored to the needs of enterprises,
taking into account their nature, potential and growth conditions.
Another instrument continued in 2015 is the Grant Support programme dedicated to entrepreneurs,
which was initiated in 2011. Its aim is to encourage entrepreneurs to participate in international
innovation programmes and to cooperate with the scientific environment. Entrepreneurs who have
submitted their project applications (as coordinators or partners) in response to a competition
announced under international innovation programmes and who have obtained a positive formal
evaluation of their applications may apply for support for the purposes of covering the costs associated
with the preparation and submission thereof. The amount of support available for project coordinators is
PLN 75 thousand, while partners participating in a project may obtain up to PLN 35 thousand. The funds
earmarked for the Programme in 2015 amount to approx. PLN 2.0 million.
In the years 2013-2015, the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP) has implemented a pilot
system project entitled Polish Silicon Bridge financed under the Innovative Economy Operational
Programme and carried out in cooperation with the Trade and Investment Promotion Section of the
Polish Embassy in Washington. The project aims to increase the innovativeness of the Polish economy
by accelerating the development of selected enterprises, including enterprises from new technology
industries. The project consists of two identical rounds, each of which encompasses three closely
interconnected phases: introductory training (Phase 1) and boot camp (Phase 2) organised in Poland
and an acceleration programme (Phase 3) run in the Silicon Valley, US. Before each phase started, a
new call for applications had been announced among innovative enterprises from high-tech sectors
(such as: IT, ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, clean-tech, aeronautics and space technologies,
smart building, production of medical equipment and pharmaceuticals). The support is granted as de
minimis aid – it only covers costs of the organisation of two initial phases of the project in Poland, while
275
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
in Phase 3 an entrepreneur receives a subsidy in the amount of PLN 55 thousand for costs of mentoring
and advisory services provided in the Silicon Valley by local experts. It is essential that project phases
carried out in Poland enable companies to reasonably assess their readiness for entering foreign
markets and, on those grounds, take an informed decision about their participation in the programme
organised in the Silicon Valley. Round 1 of the project was opened in January 2014 and today, Phase 3
is being carried out, where 23 entrepreneurs are following their individual, “tailor-made” programmes
encompassing a visit to the Silicon Valley and cooperation with personally selected mentors. The call for
applications for Round 2 was launched in November 2014, and for Round 3 in May 2015.
The model of close cooperation with US experts at the stage of preparation for the acceleration
programme and its implementation translates into high effectiveness of the actions taken. It should also
be stressed that the acceleration programme gives many opportunities, requiring high activity of a
company in the Silicon Valley. It does not provide ready-made solutions, but offers tools and knowledge
which has turned out to be the key factors why the companies are interested in taking part in the project
where the co-financing is relatively low and costs of flights and stay in the USA borne by participants
quite high.
Due to the success of the project format, the model elaborated during the implementation of the “Polish
Silicon Bridge” has become the basis for launching another project under the Smart Growth Operational
Programme – “Polish Technology Bridges” – at the beginning of 2016. It will be implemented on a larger
scale: the range of services is wider, the level of co-financing is higher, and it includes additional
markets: the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Israel.
Entrepreneurs were offered preferential financial instruments available under framework programmes
of the European Union for the years 2007-2013, including the Competitiveness and Innovation
Framework Programme (CIP)120 extended until the end of 2014 by the Resolution of the Council of
Ministers No. 4/2014 and Seventh Framework Programme in the field of research, technological
development and demonstration activities. The instruments are aimed at facilitating the availability of
repayable instruments for micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises, including innovative enterprises
and start-ups. Thanks to EU guarantees, loans under framework programmes are available on
preferential terms and conditions, e.g. it makes it possible to incur a debt without providing security or
own contribution, with a longer loan term, etc. Such preferential terms and conditions are particularly
important to innovative entrepreneurs whose businesses are more prone to any kind of risk and who
would not be able to use a repayable instrument without softening loan requirements.
In 2014, 5 financial intermediaries, including banks, a leasing company and guarantee funds, provided
their services. Entrepreneurs could use, among others, investment loans or working capital facilities,
loans and credits for start-ups, leasing or credit guarantees.
Information on instruments is provided by the National Contact Point for Financial Instruments of the EU
Programmes established by the resolution of the Council of Ministers as part of the multiannual
Participation of Poland in the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme supervised by
the Ministry of Economy and implemented by the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development. A
dedicated website www.instrumentyfinansoweue.gov.pl has been launched for entrepreneurs, featuring
all repayable instruments for innovative activities available under EU framework programmes.
Information on the financial instruments available under the CIP is provided by the National Contact Point to the Polish
Bank Association. Information on the CIP, the activities of national contact points, financial instruments and Polish
intermediaries are available at: www.cip.gov.pl/eip-kpkzbp.
120
276
Moreover, in 2014, the implementation of new EU framework programmes for the years 2014-2020 was
initiated; the programmes also offer preferential repayable instruments. It means that the offer for
entrepreneurs will be extended by new instruments in the case of continued financial support under
programmes of the previous financial framework available until 2016-2017 or while budgets of national
financial intermediaries last.
From the perspective of innovative activities, “Horizon 2020” – the Framework Programme for Research
and Innovation – is the most important. It is a programme with a total budget of EUR 80 billion, where
EUR 2.8 billion has been allocated to financial instruments (InnovFin). It encompasses both debt
instruments (loans, guarantees), as well as capital instruments (financing for venture capital funds)
addressed to SMEs, midcaps and major innovative projects. In 2014, the first InnovFin competitions
were announced; national financial intermediaries selected in the course of the competitions will provide
innovative companies with an opportunity to use preferential financing, extending the existing financing
offer.
A significant incentive for enterprises to pursue innovative activity is tax instruments contained in the
Act on certain forms of support for innovative activity.
Box 26 The Research and Development Centre Status
The Research and Development Centre status (RDC) is a mechanism aimed to develop the private research and
development sector and to increase the expenditures of private research enterprises on scientific research and
development works and increase the supply of R&D services on the market. The RDC status is granted to
entrepreneurs whose annual revenue from the sale of goods, products and financial operations amounts to at
least EUR 120 thousand, out of which at least 20% must come from the sale of research and development
services rendered by the entrepreneur or from industrial property rights. An entrepreneur who has been granted a
research and development centre status is exempted from property taxes (including agricultural and forest taxes)
with respect to the property used for research and development activities and is entitled to open an innovation
fund financed by way of a monthly contribution amounting to no more than 20% of the revenue of the given
enterprise.
As at the end of the first half of 2015, the Minister of Economy has granted the RDC status to 42
enterprises.
Table 100 Tax relief
(PIT)
Year
(CIT)
Average value of
Number of taxpayers
deduction (PLN)
2007
117
564
19
2008
11
4,636
26
2009
15
1,667
25
2010
398
648
33
2011
250
1,048
97
2012
42
3,333
94
2013
31
28,540
75
2014
n.a.
n.a.
80
Source: Ministry of Finance, preliminary data for 2014.
Number of taxpayers
Average value of
deduction (PLN)
233
302
802
948
2,793
4,674
4,090
3,564
Another preference introduced with the Act on certain forms of support for innovative activity is a
personal income tax and corporate income tax relief for the purchase of new technologies. All
entrepreneurs may use this relief. For this relief to be used, the new technology must be useful for the
activity of taxpayer provided for in their articles of association and the entrepreneur must obtain an
opinion from a scientific unit (university, association, research and development centre) that the
technology is new. As new technology shall be deemed technological knowledge in the form of
277
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
intangible assets or purchased on the basis of an agreement, which has not been applied in the world
for longer than 5 years. 50% of the price of the new technology may be deducted from the taxable base.
At the same time, the value of the new technology is subject to full amortisation. According to the figures
of the Ministry of Finance, 80 taxpayers took advantage of that relief when calculating the amount of CIT
due for 2014, and the average value of deduction was PLN 3,564 thousand.
Box 27 Programmes of the European Space Agency
Since 2012, Poland has been a member of the European Space Agency (ESA), owing to which Polish enterprises
and R&D institutions can get involved in the programmes implemented by this Agency. During the first 5 years of
our membership in the European Space Agency (i.e. until the end of 2017), Polish entities are covered by a
special support programme for the Polish industry, the aim of which is to adjust their capabilities in a way for them
to become able to take part in the ESA programmes and projects. Part of funds from the Polish membership fee
(45% of the mandatory annual fee) will be earmarked only for contracts for domestic companies and science and
research institutes. Enterprises may also apply for the remaining part of the Polish membership fee in accordance
with the general tender rules and procedures of the ESA.
Until now, two competitions under the Programme of the European Space Agency have been carried
out. A total of 143 innovative proposals were submitted, out of which 62 projects were recommended for
implementation (34 in the first competition and 28 in the second) for a total amount of nearly EUR 11
million; 80% of the amount was allocated to industry. A majority of industrial proposals recognised by
the ESA concern advanced space technologies. All proposals submitted in the competition organised
under the industry support programme are original solutions of Polish entities. It shows the involvement
of our companies and science and research centres in the sector, their experience, competences and
creativity.
Apart from the Polish industry support programme, Polish entities are more and more successful as
regards the so-called optional programmes of the European Space Agency, winning contracts in open
competition. As the ESA report of May 2015 shows, since Poland joined the organisation, 40 companies
and science and research centres have taken part in tenders under ESA programmes and missions.
Out of the group, 32 offerors from Poland have already signed contracts for a total amount of over EUR
14.5 million. The following programmes are of the greatest interest to Polish companies: the GSTP
intended for the development of new solutions without assigning them to specific missions, ARTES-20 –
integrated applications applied in various sectors of economy, PRODEX – devoted to the development
of scientific instruments, MREP – concerning robotics and exploration activities, and the so-called
GMES Space Component relating to the observation of the Earth for the purposes of environment
protection and public security.
Support in the field of the development of innovation in enterprises is also granted by the Enterprise
Europe Network.
13.6.3.2. Export support instruments
The support of export takes place in two dimensions: in a narrower context, through the implementation
of specific instruments; and, in a broader context, through promoting the Polish economy on a macro
scale. Actions aimed at supporting exports are implemented as part of operational programmes and are
based on European funds as well as by the co-financing from the state budget of sector promotion
projects, costs of obtaining exports certificates and organisation of promotional activities as well as
promotional publications and materials.
Polish exporters have attained a strong position on many markets, including EU markets. Taking into
account the level of saturation of the region with Polish products (over 77% of all Polish exports is sold
278
on EU markets) as well as the need to diversify the existing sales markets, it is essential to intensify the
efforts made with respect to less popular but nevertheless promising markets. For the above purpose, a
systemic actions were undertaken to strengthen the Polish economy and enterprises under the project
designated as the Promotion of the Polish Economy on International Markets as part of Sub-measure
6.5.1 Promotion of the Polish Economy on International Markets, OP IE 2007-2013. The total budget of
this project is PLN 180 million. A part of this amount was earmarked for Polish companies for the
purposes of co-financing their promotional efforts on foreign markets.
Two types of programmes are currently being carried out within the framework of the project referred to
above. The core section of the project consists of promotional programmes of a general nature,
implemented on 5 markets designated by the Ministry of Economy as markets with substantial
development opportunities: These are: Canada, Brazil, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. In 2014, the
project was extended by the United Arab Emirates and Mexico. Under the general promotional
programmes, two editions of video games promotion programme were organised – in 2013 in the USA
and in Germany, and in 2014 also in China and France. Promoting Polish exports on the markets
referred to above is effected in the course of large promotional endeavours such as trade fairs,
exhibitions or economic missions. Entrepreneurs may not only present their products and services, but
also participate in seminars, meetings or industry talks with foreign partners. In addition, they may also
take advantage of advisory services pertaining to the process of obtaining specialist publications,
analyses, legal opinions, market studies etc., pertaining, for example, to specific markets or industries,
potential trading partners and the legal conditions governing the contemplated operations. The general
promotion programme consists of two components (parts):
 component A, i.e. the participation of entrepreneurs in selected, prestigious trade and exhibition
events in the given country, preparation of promotional materials for entrepreneurs to use in the
course of the events in question as well as participation of entrepreneurs in trade missions.
 component B i.e. the organisation, in each country, of conferences promoting the Polish economy
as a whole and selected industries thereof, organisation of study visits in Poland for industry
journalists from individual countries, organisation of similar visits for foreign trading partners and
merchant networks, organising campaigns aimed at promoting the Polish economy and the
reputation of selected industries in each country as well as in the course of trade and exhibition
events, including the preparation of appropriate promotional materials containing the visualisation of
the brand representing the Polish economy.
In total, in the years 2013-2014, there were, among others, 76 exhibition stands (with 179 enterprises),
20 missions of Polish entrepreneurs (with 74 entrepreneurs taking part in them), 31 study visits of
foreign journalists (for 148 journalists) and 36 study visits of foreign contractors (for 204 representatives
of foreign companies or organisations associating purchasers) on the markets where general promotion
programmes are carried out. There were also 46 promotional conferences and seminars organised for
more than 2.5 thousand participants in total. Moreover, 219 promotional studies and articles and nearly
190 thousand copies of promotional and informational materials were prepared.
Promotional programmes aimed at specific industry sectors constitute the second type of available
programmes. Following consultations with entrepreneur organisations, a concept for a sector promotion
programme for a period of the next 3 years has been drawn up for every sector. The programme
specifies a number of target markets (4-7 markets on average) on which the given industry sector shall
be promoted. As in the case of general promotion programmes, sector programmes are divided into two
components, one aimed at entrepreneurs (component A) and one focusing on the promotion of the
sector as a whole (component B). 15 sectors/product or service groups which have the potential to
attain the position of Polish export specialties includes the following:
 furniture industry;
279
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
 jewellery and amber processing sector;
 IT and ITC services;
 production of yachts and recreation boats;
 biotechnological and pharmaceutical industry;
 production of medical equipment and measuring devices;
 wooden window and door manufacture;
 construction;
 historical monuments protection and conservation sector;
 cosmetics;
 mining machinery and equipment;
 clothing, accessories, leather accessories;
 medical tourism;
 defence industry;
 Polish food delicacies;
The completion of sector promotion programmes is scheduled for 2015.
Box 28 Stimulation of export on selected markets promotional programme
With relation to negative tendencies concerning the exports to Ukraine and Russia which appeared in 2014, it
was necessary to take actions aimed at the creation of support mechanisms for Polish companies by launching
the Stimulation of export on selected markets promotional programme, conducted on selected markets that were
essential for the reorientation of Polish export. The aim of the programme is to enable Polish entrepreneurs to
establish contacts with potential foreign customers from selected countries who are important from the viewpoint
of the development of Polish export and finding new sales markets.
The markets regarded as prospective from the perspective of trade in goods previously supplied on the Russian
and Ukrainian market include: Azerbaijan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, Vietnam, and
four Balkan countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia.
The programme supports selected industries most affected by the decrease in export. The food specialities
sector is one of such industries, and it will be promoted in all countries covered by the programme. Additionally,
in individual countries, the programme promotes the following industries:
 India - IT / ITC services and the production of medical equipment and measuring devices;
 Indonesia - Mining machinery and equipment, and the production of medical equipment
and measuring devices;
 Azerbaijan - Construction;
 Mongolia - Mining and other machinery and equipment;
 Turkmenistan - Furniture sector;
 Vietnam - Mining and other machinery and equipment;
 Malaysia - Cosmetics;
 Croatia - Furniture sector;
 Serbia - Manufacturers of means of transport;
 Macedonia - Mining and other machinery and equipment;
 Bosnia and Herzegovina - Mining and other machinery and equipment.
The following promotional activities have been planned under the programme:
 organizing a promotional conference, one in each country, focused on the branches supported by the
MoE, combined with a presentation or an opportunity to taste Polish export specialties;
 organizing inbound trade missions to Poland for potential contractors and journalists from individual
countries;
 organizing a promotional campaign “Made in Poland” through articles sponsored in nationwide industryrelated magazines issued in those countries.
280
In 2013 and 2014, the aforementioned activities were supported by the “Made in Poland” campaign
promoting the Polish economy on 5 markets: in Germany, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Russia, and
China. Promotional activities were carried out in selected media, i.e. in the press (journals as well as
business, economic, financial, and informational magazines), in in-flight magazines on planes, on the
Internet as well as with the use outdoor/indoor advertising (at airports or in their direct vicinity). In
addition, there were public relation activities carried out as well, i.e. the opening conference, economic
forums with participation of the business community, politicians, and the media, briefings for the media,
meeting for ambassadors of the Polish Economy Brand. The second part of the promotional campaign
in foreign media are scheduled for Q3 2015. This time the activities will focus on TV advertisements in
local TV stations (Germany, Brazil, United Arab Emirates) as well as advertisements in the press, inflight magazines and outdoor/indoor advertising (China).
In addition, in 2013 and 2014 a total of PLN 32.4 million was distributed as part of the implementation of
the system project designated Support for the Participation of Entrepreneurs in Promotion Programmes
(Sub-measure 6.5.2 of the Innovative Economy Operational Programme), i.e. direct aid for
entrepreneurs who decided to take part in general promotion programmes, while in the scope of export
support the PARP implemented Measure 6.1 Passport to export addressed to micro-, small and
medium-sized enterprises. The latter support is granted in the form of subsidies for projects aimed at the
entering onto new markets and strengthening of the competitive position of a given enterprise on foreign
markets, projects contributing to higher share of sales to foreign markets in the total sales structure of a
given enterprise and projects promoting the Polish brand on foreign markets. From early 2014 to 9th of
June 2015, 2.8 projects were carried out based on co-financing agreements. The amount disbursed
under the measure totalled PLN 171.4 million.
In the 2014-2020 financial framework, the Smart Growth Operational Programme includes Sub-measure
3.3.2 Promotion of economy based on Polish product brands which will develop good practices of Submeasure 6.5.1 of the IE OP carried out in the Ministry of Economy. The project is intended to promote
10 industries, product groups, on selected markets and carry out promotional activities on nonEuropean priority markets. Moreover, the project also includes the implementation of the task consisting
in the coordination of the Polish economy promotion system on the national and regional plane.
An important element of the system of promoting the Polish economy and, at the same time, an
important form of support for Polish enterprises on foreign markets are Trade and Investment Promotion
Sections (WPHI) i.e. foreign posts subordinate to the Minister of Economy and operating within the
structures of Polish embassies and consulates. Currently there are 49 such sections in the world
operating in 44 countries on 5 continents.
Their strategic objective is to support the process of internationalisation of the Polish economy as well
as to promote Polish exports, foreign direct investments in Poland and Polish investments abroad. The
main purpose of WPHIs is to provide support to Polish enterprises, in particular to small and medium
ones, in establishing business contacts on foreign markets. The functioning of these sections is focused
on operational activities - direct, actual support for specific economic entities intending to cooperate with
foreign markets. The support provided by WPHIs consists both in the provision of up-to-date market
information to entrepreneurs and their organisations which is necessary to plan, organise and carry out
export activities or investments outside Poland and to get better insights into local markets risks, and in
the participation in promotional projects.
WPHIs provide Polish entrepreneurs with various information and market analyses including, among
others, the Market Directory - Guide to the Country of Operations, containing, inter alia, the overview of
a given market, information on access to the market by Polish enterprises, the possible forms
281
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
registration of a business and rules of running a business, the customs system and non-tariff barriers,
public procurement policies, intellectual property protection, the tax system, dispute settlement and debt
collection as well as practical information, useful addresses and links. Free-of-charge services provided
by WPHI include as well:
 initiation of contacts and cooperation between Polish entrepreneurs and entities operating on
foreign markets (i.e. matchmaking);
 provision of information on fairs and exhibitions as well as on events important from the point of
view of promotional activities, according the profile of interests of a given Polish entrepreneur;
 presentation of promotional and advertising materials of Polish enterprises during fairs and
exhibitions in the country of their operations, provided that a given WPHI has an information
stand at its disposal;
 provision of support in organising economic and trade missions of Polish entrepreneurs as
regards matchmaking;
 provisions of information on opinions about companies from the country of operations of a given
WPHI – provided that such information can be obtained free-of-charge from registration
authorities, economic chambers, and credit reference agencies.
An important part of the effort aimed at the support of the internationalisation of entities is the Network of
Investors and Exporters' Service Centres (COIE), a project implemented within the framework of Submeasure 6.2.1 Support for networks of services for investors and exporters, IE OP. The aim of this
project is to increase the level of the internationalisation of Polish enterprises by initiating economic
cooperation between Polish companies and potential trading partners from other countries through a
network of entities referred to as the Investors and Exporters’ Service Centres, located in individual
regions, within the framework of the so-called “pro-export” information service. The second type of
service, known as the “pro-business” service, is provided to foreign investors who expressed their
interest in investment in a given region.
The COIE network plays a significant role in the institutionalised system for the internationalisation of
enterprises in that it removes the obstructions affecting the flow of information between enterprises,
local government of a given province and the Ministry of Economy, including also Trade and Investment
Promotion Sections (WPHI) as well as makes it possible for local government and enterprises from
individual regions to exert a real influence upon the implementation of the policy of international
economic cooperation. Data pertaining to international markets, continuously updated by Polish foreign
posts, is available online at www.coie.gov.pl.
A total of 15 provinces participate in the COIE system on the basis of a Framework Agreement
concluded between the Minister of Economy and the Marshal’s Offices until the year 2020 as well as on
the basis of annual Executive Agreements. In most provinces, the COIE centres are included within the
structure of the Marshal’s Office, with the exception of the Dolnośląskie voivodeship (Dolnośląska
Agencja Współpracy Gospodarczej Sp. z o.o.), the Mazowieckie voivodeship (Agencja Rozwoju
Mazowsza S.A), and the Opolskie voivodeship (Opolskie Centrum Rozwoju Gospodarki), where they
form separate entities as listed above.
The project creates an opportunity for the regions to enable enterprises originating from those regions to
expand their activities into foreign markets by means of:
 establishing contacts with new international partners;
 free access to global databases (B2B);
 more intense cooperation with WPHIs which have an up-to-date and extensive knowledge
concerning the conditions pertaining to access to selected international markets and to carrying out
activities on those markets.
282
Close cooperation between entities operating in the COIE system is intended to ensure the synergy of
their activities as well as the efficient flow of information to enterprises interested in the development of
their export activities or in investing in other countries. The cooperation scheme in question is also
intended to attract foreign investors into given regions.
Entrepreneurs may also participate in information meetings held in individual regions, pertaining to
specific sectors and/or geographic areas or themes, during which issues pertaining to international trade
as well as the conditions for the access to individual foreign markets are addressed.
In 2014, COIE centres provided over 7 thousand pro-export services and nearly 700 pro-business
services, while from January to April 2015 the numbers reached the levels of 2.7 thousand and 180,
respectively. In addition, in 2014, COIE centres organised nearly 80 information meetings and
conferences as well as 5 foreign inbound trade missions. The events were attended by 3 thousand
participants.
Box 29 The COIE network – An offer for entrepreneurs
Every entrepreneur who decides to contact a given COIE centre may obtain, inter alia:
1. a sector analysis of a given international market, whether in Europe or beyond, prepared by COIE experts in
English on the basis of information contained in the Euromonitor International database. The analysis in
question includes all information which is necessary to make decisions pertaining to export activities or
investments (Polish investments abroad).
A sample analysis contains:
 trends pertaining to a given sector on a selected European/Non-European market;
 retail/wholesale channels for products in a relevant sector;
 data on the sales results for products in a given sector over the period of the last 6 years (2006-2011);
 names of companies operating in a given sector on a selected foreign market;
 forecast pertaining to the sale of products within a sector until 2016;
 perspectives for the development of a given sector in a selected country;
 government regulations and market indicators;
2. a list of potential trading partners on a selected market or sector, prepared on the basis of the
Dun&Bradstreet database available in the COIE system; the list will contain a summary of the information on
potential partners for a given Polish enterprise on a selected market, whether in Europe or beyond;
3. information on current trade and exhibition events in a given sector on markets on which WPHIs operate;
4. a list of foreign companies interested in the purchase of products in the given sector on the Polish market –
information derived from the so-called foreign offer enquiry market, prepared on the basis of enquiries of
WPHIs’ submitted to the COIE network;
5. a market analysis tailored to the needs of 4 enterprises with no capital or personal links and operating within
a similar sector or commodity group, commissioned at the COIE, prepared by an external contractor
selected by the WPHI on a given market for the purposes of implementation of the service. At the present
stage works are underway on analyses pertaining to the control and measurement equipment sector and
(separately) to the electrical tools sector in China (Shanghai), to swimming articles and (separately) to
lighting equipment in Germany as well as to the situation in Brazil for enterprises interested in business
solution systems in the area of IT, such as CRM or helpdesk solutions.
Support pertaining to the internationalisation of enterprises is also provided by the Enterprise Europe
Network.
283
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
13.6.3.3. Financial support for investments
Since 2011, public aid from the state budget for investment projects is granted on the basis of the
Programme for supporting investments of major importance to the Polish economy for years
2011-2020 (adopted by the Council of Ministers on 5th of July 2011).
In accordance with the previous support systems, public aid from the state budget intended for
investment projects was granted on the basis of multiannual programmes established by the Council of
Ministers.
The aim of the Programme for supporting investments of major importance to the Polish economy for
years 2011-2020 is to enhance the innovativeness and competitiveness of the Polish economy through
supporting new investments made by Polish and foreign enterprises.
On 13th of August 2013, the Council of Ministers amended the Programme for the support of
investments of considerable importance for Polish economy for years 2011-2020. As a result of the
above, the criteria pertaining to the granting of support changed, the aim of which was to enable a
greater number of entrepreneurs to meet these criteria as well as to increase the value of available
support, thereby making it a real incentive to investment. In the case of large projects, the previous
amount of the available support was not attractive. Now, taking into consideration the lack of the EU
funds to support investments over the next three years, the possibility of obtaining support under the
aforementioned programme constitutes a real investment incentive. In addition, the purpose of the
changes was to more strongly encourage entrepreneurs to invest in provinces in Eastern Poland.
In the 2011-2020 period, the funds allocated for the implementation of the Programme from the state
budget reached approx. PLN 686 million. The support is available to entrepreneurs who plan
investments in the following priority sectors:
 automotive sector – particularly the manufacture of: motor vehicles, bodywork, trailers and
semi-trailers, car and car engine parts and accessories;
 electronic sector – particularly the manufacture of: computers; radio, TV and telecommunication
equipment and devices; systems and components (in particular for automotive, energy,
household appliances and military industries);
 aviation sector – particularly the manufacture of: aircraft; aircraft and aircraft engine parts and
accessories; repairs, maintenance and overhauls of aircraft and aircraft engines;
 biotechnology sector – particularly manufacturing activities in the area of white biotechnology
applied in industrial processes, and red biotechnology related to medicine and health protection
(e.g. creating new medicinal products);
 state-of-the-art services sector;
 research and development sector.
as well as to entrepreneurs who plan new production-related investment projects in sectors other than
those listed above, provided that the minimum eligible costs of the project amount to PLN 750 million
and at least 200 new jobs are to be created, or that the minimum eligible costs of the project amount to
PLN 500 million and at least 500 new jobs are to be created, hereinafter referred to as „significant
investment projects” or „significant projects”.
Support with regards to creating new jobs can be applied for on the basis of:
 the implementation of a new production investment in the priority sectors, resulting in the
creation of at least 250 jobs and with minimum total eligible costs of investment of PLN 40
million;
284
 the implementation of a new significant investment;
 the implementation of a new investment project in the state-of-the-art services sector, resulting
in the creation of at least 250 new jobs and with minimum capital expenditure for property, plant
and equipment of PLN 1.5 million;
 the implementation of a new investment project in the R&D sector, resulting in the creation of at
least 35 new jobs for university degree holders and with the minimum total costs of the
investment of PLN 1.5 million. Aid is granted solely for the creation of jobs for university degree
holders.
Support with regard to new investments can be applied for on the basis of:
 the implementation of a new investment in priority sectors where eligible new investment costs
amount to at least PLN 160 million and where there are at least 50 new jobs created;
 the implementation of a new significant investment;
 the implementation of an investment project in the R&D sector, where eligible investment costs
amount to at least PLN 10 million and where there are at least 35 new jobs for university degree
holders created.
The support does not pertain to investments carried out in the sector of state-of-the-art services.
The Programme supports development processes in regions characterised by a lower degree of
development, allowing them to increase their capacity in terms of the absorption of capital, qualified
personnel, knowledge and innovations. The diversified system of incentives for investments allows
individual incentives for projects implemented e.g. in Eastern Poland. Such projects are not subject to
the ban on support in locations with unemployment rate below 75% of the national average
unemployment rate, receive higher score in the support application process, are awarded higher
support for eligible costs of the investment and are exempted from the mechanism of reducing support
level in the case of combining various forms of state aid. In addition, the amended Programme adopted
by the Council of Ministers on 22nd of July 2014 extended the catalogue of sectors in which investments
may be granted financial support from the state budget. As a result, an essential incentive for potential
investors may be a possibility of obtaining support for investments in the agricultural and food sector
and the green biotechnology (on general terms and conditions).
State aid under the Programme is granted based on Commission Regulation (EU) No. 651/2014 of 17th
of June 2014 declaring certain categories of aid compatible with the common market in application of
Articles 107 and 108 of the Treaty (L 187/1 of 26th of June 2014) and Guidelines on regional state aid for
2014-2020.
In 2014, a total of PLN 72.2 million was distributed under various programmes. The funds were used for:
individual multiannual programmes of financial support for investments (PLN 6.7 million) and for the
Programme for the support of investments of considerable importance for the Polish economy for years
2011-2020 (PLN 65.5 million). In 2014, state budget support was granted in the form of a multiannual
programme to 5 investment projects. Since the launch of the investments, the entrepreneurs have
created nearly 1.9 thousand jobs and made investment outlays in the amount of PLN 1.3 billion. In
2014, the implementation of 2 programmes was finished. The implementation of the remaining projects
will be continued in 2015.
By the end of 2014, the Minister of Economy signed, under the Programme for the support of
investments of considerable importance for the Polish economy for years 2011-2020, 42 agreements on
granting state aid for investments. The total amount of support granted under the above mentioned
support agreements amounted to PLN 280.5 million, out of which PLN 81 million was spent on support
for job creation, and PLN 199.5 million on support for investment costs. Entrepreneurs who signed the
285
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
agreements declared investment costs in a total amount of PLN 7 billion and creation of 15.6 thousand
jobs.
In 2014, 30 projects were granted support under the Programme totalling PLN 65.5 million. Since the
launch of investments under the projects, the entrepreneurs have created nearly 9 thousand jobs and
made investment outlays in the amount of PLN 2.3 billion.
The budget planned for 2015 provides for the support of investment projects in the amount of PLN 87.7
million, including: PLN 86 million for the Programme for the support of investments of considerable
importance for Polish economy for years 2011-2020 and PLN 1.7 million for the implementation of 3
other multiannual programmes.
13.6.3.4. Special Economic Zones
Special Economic Zones (SSE) are administratively distinct areas within the territory of the Republic of
Poland in which entrepreneurs who implement new investment projects are entitled to take advantage of
income tax relief with respect to the profits generated within a given SSE.
The rules and conditions of investments within SSEes as well as the benefits which stem from the fact
of pursuing business activities within such economic zones are defined in the Act of 20th of October
1994 on Special Economic Zones (Journal of Laws of 2007, No. 42, item 274, as amended) as well as
secondary legislation to the said act.
Business license for operation in a given zone is the basis to benefit from state aid. Licenses are issued
by companies tasked with the management of SSEs by way of a joint tender or negotiations. Rules and
manner of conducting tenders and negotiations are specified – separately for each zone – by the
Regulation of the Minister of Economy and Labour of 2004 regarding tenders and negotiations as well
as the intentions evaluation criteria concerning business activities to be taken by entrepreneurs within
the area of the zone.
Box 30 Terms and conditions for granting public aid to enterprises operating in Special Economic Zones
Entrepreneurs who establish their businesses in Special Economic Zones may benefit from public aid in the form
of tax relief with respect to:
1. costs of new investments;
2. creating new jobs.
The level of the aid depends on the maximum intensity of the aid set for the area where a given investment
project is implemented as well as the amount of the costs eligible for aid. For entrepreneurs who choose to
benefit from the aid for employment, eligible expenditures include the two-year costs of remuneration of newly
employed workers, whereas for entrepreneurs who opt to benefit from investment aid - the costs of the new
investment project.
The maximum aid intensity in the case of investments implemented in Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, WarmińskoMazurskie and Podlaskie voivodeships is 50%, in Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Lubuskie, Łódzkie, Małopolskie,
Opolskie, Pomorskie, Świętokrzyskie and Zachodniopomorskie provinces as well as in Ciechanowsko-Płocki,
Ostrołęcko-Siedlecki, Radomski And East Warsaw Subregions of Mazowieckie voivodeships - 35%, in
Dolnośląskie, Wielkopolskie and Śląskie voivodeships - 25%, in West Warsaw Subregion - 20%, and in the area
of the capital city of Warsaw 15% by the end of 2017 and 10% after that date. For small and medium-sized
enterprises the aid may be increased by 20 percentage points and by 10 points, respectively. The increase shall
not be applied in the case of large investment projects (costs eligible for aid exceed the equivalent of EUR 50
million).
286
There is a total of 14 Special Economic Zones in Poland. As at the end of December 2014, their total
area amounted to more than 18.1 thousand hectares. The zones were located in 162 cities and 232
communes. In 2014, zone boundaries were changed times. The changes were applied to the
boundaries of all 14 special economic zones, while the area of the Pomeranian Special Economic Zone
was changed three times, and two zones, i.e. Kostrzyńsko-Słubicka Special Economic Zone and
Wałbrzych Special Economic Zone, were changed twice. The total surface area of SSEs increased by
1,930 ha, as compared to 2013.
As at the end of 2014, entrepreneurs held a total of 2,056 business licenses for operation in special
economic zones. During 2014, a total of 436 of such licenses were issued, which corresponds to 21% of
all valid licenses. Until the end of 2014, entrepreneurs operating in SSEs invested over PLN 101.9
billion, ensuring jobs for nearly 295.6 thousand people, out of which nearly 213.9 thousand (i.e. 72.4%)
were new jobs, i.e. jobs created by investors after obtaining business licenses for operation in SSEs and
resulting directly from the implementation of new investment projects.
Over 74% of the capital invested in SSEs originates from the following six countries: Poland (19.0%),
Germany (17.7%), the US (12.3%), the Netherlands (11.5%), Japan (6.9%), and Italy (6.8%).
As in the previous years, the automotive sector prevailed in the business structure. Investments made in
this sector constituted over 26% of the total investment outlays. Manufacturers of rubber and plastic
products (10.2%) ranked second, and manufacturers of other non-metallic raw material products (8.7%)
ranked third. Manufacturers of metal products were the next in the ranking, slightly ahead of
manufacturers of paper and paper products. Their share in the total investment outlays made up for
7.5% and 7.1%, respectively.
The highest sector concentration was observed in Legnicka, Katowicka, and Warminsko-Mazurska
Special Economic Zones, where in 2014 the leading sector accounted for 62.3%, 52.5% and 48.4% of
investments, respectively. The automotive sector prevailed in Legnicka and Katowicka SSEs, whereas
the manufacture of rubber and plastic products in Warminsko-Mazurska SSE. A visible concentration of
investments in one industry was also observed in Kamiennogórska SSE, where publishing services
made up for 38.9% of all investments, in Suwalska SSE, where the share of timber industry amounted
to 34.0%, and in Pomorska SSE, where the stationery industry made up for 32.6%.
287
Table 101 Locations and effects of the operation of Special Economic Zones as at the end of 2014
No
Zone
Zone area
(ha)
Voivodeship
413.40
1
dolnośląskie,
wielkopolskie
Kamiennogórska
2,347.34
2
śląskie, małopolskie,
opolskie
Katowicka
1,746.98
3
lubuskie,
zachodniopomorskie,
wielkopolskie
KostrzyńskoSłubicka
707.78
4
Krakowska
5
Legnicka
małopolskie,
podkarpackie
1,214.42
dolnośląskie
1,302.26
6
łódzkie,
wielkopolskie,
mazowieckie
Łódzka
1,362.99
7
Mielecka
podkarpackie,
małopolskie,
lubelskie,
zachodniopomorskie
Zone location
cities: Jawor, Jelenia Góra, Kamienna Góra, Lubań, Ostrów Wielkopolski, Piechowice,
Zgorzelec
municipals: Bolków, Gryfów Śląski, Janowice Wielkie, Kamienna Góra, Lubań,
Lubawka, Mirsk, Nowogrodziec, Prusice, Żmigród
cities: Bielsko-Biała, Bieruń, Bytom, Częstochowa, Dąbrowa Górnicza, Gliwice,
Jastrzębie-Zdrój, Katowice, Kędzierzyn-Koźle, Knurów, Lubliniec, Myszków, Orzesze,
Piekary Śląskie, Racibórz, Rybnik, Siemianowice Śląskie, Sławków, Sosnowiec,
Świętochłowice, Tychy, Zabrze, Zawiercie, Żory
citities: Czechowice-Dziedzice, Czerwionka-Leszczyny, Głuchołazy, Godów, Gogolin,
Kietrz, Koniecpol, Krapkowice, Miedźna, Myślenice, Olesno, Pawłowice,
Radziechowy-Wieprz, Rajcza, Rudziniec, Siewierz, Strzelce Opolskie, Ujazd
cities: Białogard, Gorzów Wielkopolski, Gubin, Kostrzyn nad Odrą, Nowa Sól, Poznań,
Szczecin, Zielona Góra, Żary
municipals: Barlinek, Buk, Bytom Odrzański, Chodzież, Czerwieńsk, Dębno,
Dobiegniew, Drezdenko, Goleniów, Gryfino, Gubin, Kamień Pomorski, Kargowa,
Karlino, Kożuchów, Krosno Odrzańskie, Lubsko, Łobez, Międzyrzecz, Nowogard,
Nowy Tomyśl, Pełczyce, Przemęt, Rzepin, Skwierzyna, Słubice, Stęszew, Strzelce
Krajeńskie, Sulęcin, Swarzędz, Śmigiel, Wągrowiec, Wronki, Zielona Góra
cities: Bochnia, Bukowno, Kraków, Krosno, Limanowa, Nowy Sącz, Oświęcim, Sucha
Beskidzka, Tarnów
municipals: Andrychów, Bochnia, Boguchwała, Chełmek, Chrzanów, Czorsztyn,
Dąbrowa Tarnowska, Dobczyce, Gdów, Niepołomice, Nowa Sarzyna, Skawina,
Słomniki, Trzebinia, Wolbrom, Zabierzów, Zator
cities: Chojnów, Głogów, Legnica, Lubin, Złotoryja
municipals: Chojnów, Gromadka, Kostomłoty, Legnickie Pole, Miękinia, Miłkowice,
Polkowice, Prochowice, Przemków, Środa Śląska
cities: Bełchatów, Koło, Konstantynów Łódzki, Kalisz, Kutno, Łęczyca, Łowicz, Łódź,
Ozorków, Piotrków Trybunalski, Płock, Pruszków, Raciąż, Radomsko, Rawa
Mazowiecka, Sieradz, Skierniewice, Sochaczew, Tomaszów Mazowiecki, Turek,
Warszawa, Zduńska Wola, Zgierz, Żyrardów
municipals: Aleksandrów Łódzki, Brójce, Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Kleszczów, Koluszki,
Ksawerów, Nowe Skalmierzyce, Opoczno, Ostrzeszów, Paradyż, Przykona, Sławno,
Słupca, Stryków, Tomaszów Mazowiecki, Ujazd, Widawa, Wieluń, Wola
Krzysztoporska, Wolbórz, Wróblew, Zelów, Zgierz, Żychlin
cities: Chełm, Częstochowa, Dębica, Gorlice, Jarosław, Krosno, Leżajsk, Lubaczów,
Lubartów, Lublin, Łańcut, Mielec, Radzyń Podlaski, Rzeszów, Sanok, Szczecin,
Zamość municipals: Dębica, Głogów Małopolski, Jarosław, Kolbuszowa, Leżajsk,
Ostrów, Radymno, Ropczyce, Sędziszów Małopolski, Trzebownisko, Zagór
Number
of valid
permits
Investments
(PLN mn)
Employment
New
Maintained
work
work
places
places
61
2,039.3
5,508
751
302
21,097.1
40,524
13,974
164
5,860.3
16,929
11,228
140
2,362.1
9,075
10,075
81
7,134.3
9,717
254
200
12,467.9
23,564
8,666
207
6,652.8
20,585
6,178
No
Zone
Zone area
(ha)
1,863.27
8
Pomorska
9
Słupska
816.79
644.46
10
Starachowicka
375.63
11
Suwalska
1,677.17
12
Tarnobrzeska
Voivodeship
pomorskie, kujawskopomorskie,
wielkopolskie,
zachodniopomorskie
pomorskie,
zachodniopomorskie,
wielkopolskie
świętokrzyskie,
mazowieckie,
opolskie, łódzkie,
lubelskie
podlaskie,
warminskomazurskie,
mazowieckie
podkarpackie,
mazowieckie,
świętokrzyskie,
lubelskie,
dolnośląskie
2,648.59
13
dolnośląskie,
opolskie,
wielkopolskie,
lubuskie
Wałbrzyska
1,014.88
14
WarmińskoMazurska
warmińskomazurskie,
mazowieckie
TOTAL
18,133.96
* areas included in the SSE in 2014 written in bold.
Zone location
cities: Brodnica, Bydgoszcz, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Grudziądz, Inowrocław, Kwidzyn,
Malbork, Piła, Rypin, Stargard Szczeciński, Starogard Gdański, Tczew, Toruń,
Włocławek
municipals: Barcin, Chojnice, Czarna Woda, Człuchów, Gniewino, Kowalewo
Pomorskie, Krokowa, Łysomice, Sztum, Świecie, Tczew, Wąbrzeźno
cities: Koszalin, Słupsk, Szczecinek, Ustka, Wałcz
municipals: Biesiekierz, Czarne, Debrzno, Kalisz Pomorski, Karlino, Polanów, Słupsk,
Tychowo
cities: Kielce, Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, Puławy, Skarżysko-Kamienna, Starachowice
municipals: Iłża, Końskie, Mniszków, Morawica, Piekoszów, Połaniec, Sędziszów,
Stąporków, Suchedniów, Szydłowiec, Tułowice
cities: Białystok, Ełk, Grajewo, Łomża, Suwałki
municipals: Gołdap, Małkinia Górna, Suwałki
cities: Jasło, Kraśnik, Opatów, Pionki, Przemyśl, Radom, Siedlce, Stalowa Wola,
Tarnobrzeg, Tomaszów Lubelski
municipals: Gorzyce, Horodło, Janów Lubelski, Jasło, Jedlicze, Kobierzyce, Łapy,
Łuków, Mińsk Mazowiecki, Nisko, Nowa Dęba, Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą, Opatów,
Orły, Ożarów Mazowiecki, Pilawa, Połaniec, Poniatowa, Przasnysz, Ryki, Rymanów,
Siedlce, Staszów, Tomaszów Lubelski, Tuczępy, Węgrów, Wyszków
cities: Bielawa, Bolesławiec, Dzierżoniów, Grodków, Kalisz, Kłodzko, Kudowa-Zdrój,
Leszno, Nowa Ruda, Oleśnica, Oława, Opole, Piława Górna, Świdnica, Świebodzice,
Wałbrzych, Wrocław
municipals: Brzeg Dolny, Bystrzyca Kłodzka, Długołęka, Góra, Jarocin, JelczLaskowice, Kluczbork, Kłodzko, Kobierzyce, Kościan, Krotoszyn, Namysłów, Nowa
Ruda, Nysa, Oława, Otmuchów, Praszka, Prudnik, Rawicz, Skarbimierz, Strzegom,
Strzelin, Syców, Szprotawa, Śrem, Świdnica, Twardogóra, Wiązów, Wołów,
Września, Ząbkowice Śląskie, Żarów
cities: Bartoszyce, Ciechanów, Elbląg, Iława, Kętrzyn, Lidzbark Warmiński, Mława,
Mrągowo, Nowe Miasto Lubawskie, Olsztyn, Ostrołęka, Ostróda, Płońsk
municipals: Barczewo, Bartoszyce, Biskupiec, Ciechanów, Dobre Miasto, IłowoOsada, Kurzętnik, Morąg, Nidzica, Olecko, Olsztynek, Orzysz, Pasłęk, Piecki, Pisz,
Szczytno, Wielbark, Zakroczym
Number
of valid
permits
Investments
(PLN mn)
New
work
places
Employment
Maintained
work
places
139
9,064.7
13,345
4,364
75
1,383.6
2,991
665
76
1,886.9
3,324
2,991
81
1,745.2
5,941
376
184
7,952.4
19,761
7,464
261
18,618.1
32,139
7,941
85
3,687.6
8,292
6,703
2,056
101,953.3
213,939
81,630
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
13.6.3.5. Cooperation of entrepreneurs within SSE and clusters
One of Poland’s economic priorities is to ensure the development of Polish enterprises as well as the
increase of the competitiveness of the Polish economy in the EU and on global markets alike. Under the
present conditions, the competitiveness of the economy is generated on the basis of Research,
Development, and Innovation (R&D&I). The activity to promote the development of the enterprises
implementing innovative solutions is becoming increasingly important.
Clusters are becoming the key to achieve this objective; thanks to a naturally established cooperation of
enterprises, research institutes, business environment institutions, and local authorities, clusters are
also referred to as catalysts of innovation processes. Cluster structures largely support the growth of the
level of innovation and the improvement of the potential capacity of knowledge transfer.
A dynamic growth of the number of enterprises operating within clusters contributes to a faster
economic growth, higher productivity, increased profits, inflow of direct investments, increase in the
export, and creation of new jobs. According to the Cluster Benchmarking in Poland – edition 2014
study121, the group of 35 clusters analysed has been joined by 560 new enterprises for two recent years,
which corresponds to an increase of 41%, as compared to 2012. The establishment of clusters in hightechnology sectors improves the innovativeness of enterprises. A survey among enterprises belonging
to clusters shows that as many as 58% of them declared that they had implemented innovations over
the previous 2 years. The export potential of enterprises participating in the clusters analysed is proven
by the fact that the average share of exports in the sales structure of the cluster core amounted to 35%.
The functioning of SMEs within clusters (accounting, according to the above mentioned study, for 94.1%
of all enterprises associated under the clusters analysed) takes on a particular importance, since such
enterprises would, without institutional support and the value chain generated within the cluster, be
unable to meet the challenges of the market.
Box 31 Polish Cluster Benchmarking – 2014 edition
In 2014, the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development carried out another edition of the Polish cluster
benchmarking, which is the third study of that kind, following the 2010 and 2012 studies. The study was carried
out with regard to 35 clusters. As part of the project, there were 35 individual reports drawn up for clusters taking
part in the benchmarking process; the reports included recommendations regarding their further development.
The analysis of individual cases led to the identification of 23 good practices of cluster operations. An important
role in this scope is played by the best practices identified in the course of the study. A multidimensional analysis
of the results obtained gave grounds for the formulation of recommendations addressed to cluster coordinators
regarding the activities aimed at the growth of the clusters – e.g. coordinators were advised about the possibility
of taking actions directly supporting competitiveness and innovation of SMEs. Moreover, some
recommendations concerned the policy of supporting clusters and were addressed to representatives of
governmental and local institutions, while other were addressed to scientific institutions, research institutes and
centres for the support of innovation and entrepreneurship.
The first clusters were established in Poland in the years 2003-2005. At the end of Q1 2015, there were
177 clusters, cluster initiatives and cooperative relationships registered on the PARP’s Cluster Map,
where:
 most organisations were located in Mazowieckie, Śląskie and Wielkopolskie voivodeships, while the
fewest were located in Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodeships;
121
http://www.pi.gov.pl/Klastry/chapter_95897.asp.
290

most organisations were active in the following industries: IT, ICT, media, bioenergy, energy sector,
renewable energy sources, construction industry (including environmentally-friendly buildings),
medicine, medical services, rehabilitation, biomedicine; food industry; tourism.
Box 32 Directions and guidelines for cluster policy in Poland until 2020
In September 2012, a report collecting the results of more than two years of work of the Cluster Policy
Workgroup entitled “Directions and guidelines for cluster policy in Poland until 2020” was published. The
recommendations contained in this report shall be applied for the purposes of preparing the guidelines for the
Polish cluster policy for years 2014-2020. The recommendations issued by the Working Group referred to above
pertain, inter alia, to the following issues:
1. supporting cluster initiatives and cluster coordinators;
2. direct support for the entities operating within individual clusters (at national and regional levels);
3. support for the performance of basic coordination functions within clusters, available at a regional level;
4. development of a mechanism aimed at supporting cluster coordinators in all regions;
5. development of a flexible support programme for cluster coordinators, which should be notified to the
European Commission;
6. introduction of mechanisms intended to determine the direction of public spending allocated
within the economy – a system of allocation of key additional points within the evaluation system to
projects submitted by entities operating within the clusters;
7. prioritising the regional development policy by way of indication of key regional clusters – concentration
and management of assets at a regional level;
8. cooperation between regions for the purposes of coordinating the support provided to supra-regional
clusters;
9. selection of key national clusters (KNCs) – concentration and coordination of support at the national
and regional levels;
10. selection of key national clusters on the basis of clearly defined criteria as well as an expert analysis
and qualitative evaluation (action plans and strategies);
11. the competition committee responsible for the selection of KNCs – representatives of ministries and
agencies as well as independent experts in various fields;
12. broad and comprehensive support for KNCs – R&D&I, investments, human capital development,
promotion and internationalisation;
13. dedicated support to internationalisation of key national clusters + the opportunity to obtain additional
funds by coordinators for specific functions and services.
According to assumptions made for the purposes of the 2014-2020 Smart Growth Operational
Programme, Key National Clusters (KKK) understood as clusters of major importance to the national
economy and high international competitiveness and identified at the national level based on such
criteria as: critical mass, development and innovation potential, current and planned cooperation, as well
as experience and potential of the coordinator, will be the basic group of clusters supported at the
national level.
The implementation of the above goals of the cluster policy requires a system for the selection of
relevant clusters, covering assessment areas, criteria, and indicators as well as the procedure and
manner of their selection. In order to develop the KKK selection system, the results of the analysis of
Polish and foreign secondary sources as well as available quantitative and qualitative data were used. It
helped to determine the profile of the Key National Cluster, i.e. requirements that a cluster has to meet
to be granted the KKK status. The profile is a product of expectations formed with regard to KKKs
described in secondary sources and observed in other countries, in particular the European ones, and
real results of clusters operating in Poland. The analysis of secondary sources was used for the
elaboration of assessment criteria and indicators, which were subject to wide public consultation.
291
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The KKK selection system provides for three assessment stages: zero-one formal assessment and twostage substantive assessment (including an expert panel with the participation of cluster
representatives). The formal assessment involves 5 criteria, measured by means of 13 indicators. The
substantive assessment of stage 1 includes 12 criteria and 34 indicators, while the expert panel
considers 2 criteria and 6 indicators.
Following the selection of KKKs, a call for applications for co-financing under Sub-measure 2.3.3. SGOP
– Internationalisation of Key National Clusters will be announced. The aim of the sub-measure is to
increase the level of the internationalisation of enterprises operating within the Key National Clusters.
The co-financing covers comprehensive services, including advisory services supporting a given cluster
in entering foreign markets, in particular with high-tech products. The services should respond to
identified internationalisation-related needs of cluster members and focus on supporting international
expansion of the cluster in connection with its R&D&I operations. The support will improve the ability of
a cluster to cooperate with foreign entities on a regular basis and to cooperate with other cluster
members (i.e. coordinator and KKK members) more closely.
The instrument is addressed to coordinators of Key National Clusters which will have the function of
initiators and parties to agreements with the PARP. Moreover, coordinators will be service providers
within their projects, providing cluster members with comprehensive services necessary for effective
implementation of the cluster’s international growth strategy. In this context, enterprises which are
members a Key National Cluster are also end users of the support.
As part of the Internationalisation of a KKK, the coordinator of such a cluster will offer services
addressed to members of Key National Clusters which:
 support internationalisation of the cluster’s offer (support adjusting the offer/products of the cluster
and/or its members and introducing it/them into foreign markets or improving such an offer/such
products on foreign markets, in particular high-tech products);
 are related to encouraging cluster members to internationalise their enterprises, networking,
exchanging knowledge with foreign partners, pursuing international cooperation, increasing the
cluster’s visibility on international markets.
In 2014, the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development developed cluster management standards 122,
which are an element of a systemic approach to professional preparation of cluster coordinators being
of utter importance to a cluster to be successful and to the effectiveness of public intervention. As a
result of the undertaking, cluster coordinators have been given a practical tool for improving their
managerial activities effectively as well as information necessary for the implementation of the
standards. The verification whether managerial standards are met may be carried out by means of a
dedicated self-evaluation sheet which has been made available on the Innovation Portal together with a
manual containing practical guidelines and recommendations related to the implementation of the
standards. By the end of Q1 2015, self-coordination was performed by 6 cluster coordinators.
13.6.3.6. Instruments for the development of business environment networks
The system for the support of entrepreneurship and enterprises in Poland is based upon the
cooperation of nationwide and regional institutions responsible for the formulation of strategies and
programmes as well as the implementation of support instruments.
122
http://www.pi.gov.pl/klastry/chapter_95911.asp
292
At the central level, the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP) performs the function of an
institution implementing actions in this regard, also acting in the capacity of a scientific and research
base. The PARP implements entrepreneurship and enterprise development programmes. Under these
programmes support is provided in such areas as company innovation and R&D, international
development of enterprises and regional and human resources development. Since 2007, the Agency
has been responsible for the implementation of selected measures which are co-financed with structural
funds under the Innovative Economy OP, the Human Capital OP, the Development of Eastern Poland
OP and other entrepreneurship support instruments financed from the state budget. For this purpose,
the Agency implements financial support as well as training and consultation services. It also carries out
research as well as information and promotional campaigns. In the 2014-2020 period, the Agency will
be responsible for the implementation of projects under the Smart Growth OP, the Knowledge,
Education and Development OP, and the Eastern Poland OP.
At the regional level an important element of support are local government institutions. Implementation
activities are carried out by Marshal’s Offices and their subordinate institutions. Their main objective,
apart from promoting entrepreneurship on a regional level, is ensuring that entrepreneurs and
individuals contemplating taking up business activity receive reliable information on the following issues:
 supporting programmes implemented at the central and regional level;
 undertaking and conducting business activity;
 possibilities with regard to taking advantage of support in the form of business advice, training
programmes or financial aid.
The National Services System (KSU) plays a special role in the enterprise development system. The
KSU is a network coordinated by the PARP, consisting of about 230 organisations engaged in mutual
cooperation which provide services for both entrepreneurs and individuals contemplating taking up
business activity. The mission of the KSU is to ensure the development of entrepreneurship by providing
high quality services in the key areas which require state support. The objective of the KSU is to provide
comprehensive services pertaining to the pursuit of business activity as well as the possibilities of
obtaining funding for such activity from external sources. The KSU network consists of Consultation
Points, the National Innovation Network as well as loan and guarantee funds and entities which provide
systemic services and perform tests of pilot services.
In 2014, there were 211 entities within the KSU network which provided systemic and pilot services. A
total of 1,041 consultants participated in the process. Annually, approximately 70 thousand clients take
advantage of the services offered by the KSU.
System and pilot services provided by KSU are offered according to uniform and monitored standards;
determining in particular the scope and result of given service. The crucial element of the standard is the
fact that prior to implementation of a service a consultant diagnoses customer’s needs and selects the
scope of services appropriate for their needs. Services of the KSU were provided free of charge
(information services) or were subsidized (advisory services).
As at the end of 2014, there were 39 Consultation Points which helped existing and future
entrepreneurs to develop their operations at every stage: from the launch and registration of a company,
to advisory services pertaining to the management of a company pursuing its activity, to the stage of
suspending or winding down a company, if necessary. Having diagnosed business needs, consultants
of the Consultation Points provide advice in the following example scope: formal and legal obligations of
an entrepreneur, including the submission of documentation to the Social Security Institution (ZUS) and
the Tax Office, development of marketing strategy, corporate organisation, corporate finance and
registration of business activity.
293
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
In 2014, there were also tests conducted with regard to new pilot services of the KSU pertaining to:
 management of energy efficiency of enterprises;
 usage of information technologies in the process of enterprise management;
 planning and managing undertakings with the use of repayable instruments.
There were also systemic KSU services123 available; they referred to environmental protection,
management of energy efficiency, quick corporate finance management optimisation and marketing and
sales for the agricultural and food manufacturing.
KSU services were performed under the following projects: Provision of services pertaining to
company’s growth to entrepreneurs and individuals starting up business activity in the form of one-stopshops, Providing entrepreneurs with access to new KSU services or Planning operations in SMEs and
repayable instruments.
The National Innovation Network (KSI) is a group of KSU centres which provide pro-innovation
advisory services in accordance with the applicable standard laid down in the regulation of the Minister
of Economy of 24th of May 2011 on the National Services System (KSU).
The KSU National Innovation Network of provides services within an identified area of market
deficiencies in terms of innovation. The services in question include, in particular, the performance of a
technology audit as well as innovation implementing guidance (under the PARP system project entitled:
“KSU KSI Consultancy for innovative ones”, financed from the ERDF funds under Measure 5.2 of the IE
OP). At the present stage, there are 18 KSI centres in operation. Entrepreneurs will be able to take
advantage of the service in question by the end of June 2015.
Guarantee Funds are non-profit institutions intended to facilitate entrepreneurs’ access to external
financing in the form of bank credits and loans. The funds offer guarantees for loans, credits and tender
bonds (the latter service is only available in selected funds). Guarantees may be obtained by companies
willing to secure a loan, credit, leasing agreement or public procurement contract but which cannot
provide a sufficient collateral on their own.
As at the end of 2014, a total of 51 guarantee funds were operating in Poland; 45 of those funds signed
agreements with the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development, including 10 funds registered with the
National Services System. In 2014, guarantee funds have granted over 5.1 thousand guarantees for a
total amount of PLN 704.2 million.
Loan Funds grant loans to micro-enterprises and SMEs as well as individuals starting up business
activities, as such persons and entities often find it difficult to obtain commercial financing due to the
absence of the required collaterals or credit history. Loan funds grant loans earmarked for objectives
related to the commencement, pursuit and development of the activities of enterprises, i.e. investment
objectives, operating objectives or objectives combining both of these factors.
As at the end of 2014, there were 87 loan funds operating in Poland, 44 of which cooperate with the
PARP on the basis of agreements concluded within the framework of the KSU. In 2014, 44 loan funds
cooperating within the KSU granted nearly 4.5 thousand loans with a total value of over PLN 529 million.
Subsidized up to the level of 70% under the PARP’s system project designated as “Provision of enterprises for new NSS
services” (POKL 2.2.1).
123
294
Table 102 Activities of loan funds cooperating within the NSS as at the end of 2014
Specification
Number of funds
44
The value of loans capital at 31st of December 2014
PLN 1.652 mn
Number of loans granted in 2014
4.481
The value of loans granted in 2014
PLN 529 mn
The average value of a loan granted in 2014
PLN 118 thous.
Source: Own research based on reports submitted by the funds as at 31.12.2014.
In the context of business environment institution development instruments, it is also important to
mention the effects of the implementation of the multiannual programme entitled Participation of Poland
in the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme (CIP) 2008–2013, which was extended
by the Resolution No. 4/2014 until the end of 2014. The reason for its extension was the need to ensure
in 2014 the information on financial instruments available for entrepreneurs under the CIP as well as on
new instruments which will become available under subsequent EU framework programmes. The
multiannual programme referred to above supported the activities of national contact points tasked
with providing information on individual specific programmes and on the CIP financial instruments, as
well as the activity of Enterprise Europe Network centres
CIP National Contact Points engage in the promotion of instruments and measures implemented under
the CIP among potential beneficiaries in the course of conferences/seminars/meetings, the preparation
of information materials, the organisation of information stands during nationwide business fairs for
entrepreneurs or support institutions and the dissemination of the information in question using a variety
of media channels.
EU funds are one of the sources of support for the business environment institutions in Poland. Under
the financial framework 2007-2013, funds were available for activities performed within the framework of
the following priority axes: Axis III: Capital for Innovation and Axis V: Innovation Diffusion, IE OP 20072013.
Measure 3.1 of the IE OP was aimed at newly established enterprises as well as at institutions
supporting the formation of new, innovative companies, e.g. academic entrepreneurship incubators,
technology and innovation transfer centres, technology accelerators or science and technology parks.
The measure in question took on the form of incubation subsidies and subsidies for investment in newly
formed innovative enterprises by way of acquisition of shares. A capital entry takes place when after the
period of incubation, substantial opportunities of commercial success of the enterprise which is coming
into being and whose activity is based on an innovative idea, are identified. Within the framework of the
measure referred to above, from the onset of its implementation by May 2015, a total of 900 companies
were formed, with the amount invested by the incubators in the said companies totalling above PLN 530
million; the aggregate value of investments (including own contributions) amounted to approximately
PLN 1.3 billion.
Under Sub-measure 3.3.1 of the IE OP Support for Business Environment Institutions, projects in the
following areas were subsidised: training programmes for private investors, including business angels,
establishing contacts between investor networks, business incubators and venture capital funds,
creation and development of private investors’ networks, development of platforms for exchanging
experiences related to making investments, matching investors and entrepreneurs, developing
investment readiness of enterprises.
295
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
The aim of the Loan Fund for Innovation Support (measure 3.4 of the IE OP), on the other hand, was to
support micro-enterprises and small enterprises, including, in particular, those endeavours of such
enterprises which are aimed at:
 the start-up of activities of an entrepreneur who, at a given moment, is not selling products or
services and is not generating any profits, so that he or she may develop a product or service and
perform the initial introduction thereof to the market;
 the development and extension of the activities of an entrepreneur by increasing production
capacity, extending the market covered or developing products or services, on condition that the
entrepreneur in question has been pursuing sales activities for a period not exceeding 12 months
starting from the day of issue of the first invoice for the sale of a product or service.
A loan for the purposes of implementation of an innovative project may have been granted to a microenterprise or small enterprise on condition that it presents, inter alia, an investment agreement
concluded with at least one business angel or venture capital trust which provides that the business
angel or venture capital trust undertakes to invest capital in the given micro-enterprise or small
enterprise and to sustain the investment in question until the entire amount of the loan is repaid along
with any interest accrued. The minimum loan amount was PLN 200 thousand, while the maximum
amount was PLN 2 million. The loan carried a constant, preferential interest rate of 6.5% p.a.
Support was also available for supra-regional initiatives. Measure 5.1 of the IE OP Support for supraregional cooperative relationships was aimed at entrepreneurs and business environment institutions.
Their joint initiatives could have pertained to the following areas: the establishment and management of
the organisational structure of cooperative relationships, the preparation of joint plans for the
development of cooperative relationships, joint investments carried out by groups of entrepreneurs as
well as investments carried out by cooperating entrepreneurs which are necessary for the functioning
and development with respect to marketing activities pertaining to cooperative relationships. Financial
support was provided for:
 the initial development phase of cooperative links in the field of technology or industry for the
purposes of establishing technical and organisational conditions for the functioning of cooperative
links, the preparation of a joint strategy for the development of cooperative relationships and the
implementation of the said strategy for a period which is at least equivalent to the duration of the
project;
 the phase of the development of cooperative relationships for the purposes of joint preparation of an
innovative product or service and the introduction thereof to the market.
With relation to the implementation of Measure 5.1 of the IE OP, by the end of 2015, over 700
enterprises and approx. 70 business environment institutions will be engaged in cooperation activities,
which will result in, inter alia, approx. 180 innovative products/services created in the course of the
implementation of their projects.
Measure 5.2 of the IE OP Support for business environment institutions providing pro-innovation
services and their supra-regional networks, on the other hand, was aimed at business environment
institutions and networks thereof. The objective of the measure in question was to strengthen the
position of business environment institutions/networks thereof by promoting cooperation within a
network, the exchange of experiences, joint customer service as well as the development of a proinnovation services offer. Within the framework of the measure in question, support was granted for the
purposes of co-financing the preparation and development of a package of pro-innovation services
(consisting of advisory, training and information services as well as networking/partner search services)
aimed at increasing the innovativeness of enterprises operating within the territory of the Republic of
Poland, providing financial support with respect to the costs of provision of selected services for
296
entrepreneurs and with respect to joint projects performed by institutions operating in networks, as well
as the co-financing of the functioning of entities coordinating the operations of a given network. Services
of the business environment institutions subsidised under the measure were used by over 12 thousand
enterprises, and it is estimated that by the end of 2015 the number will rise to over 18.5 thousand
entities.
EU funds are also applied for the purposes of disseminating knowledge in the field of intellectual
property. Sub-measure 5.4.2 of the IE OP Promoting knowledge about intellectual property was
addressed to business environment institutions, and its aim was to disseminate and popularise
knowledge on the methods, possibilities and benefits which stem from the protection of intellectual
property in enterprises for entities which perform actions for the benefit of economic development or
innovation. Within the framework of this sub-measure, support was granted for promotional and
information activities, the preparation and printing of materials and the publication thereof as well as the
organisation of conferences, seminars and workshops in the field of the protection of industrial property.
Stronger networks of business environment institutions will lead to higher quality of the offer addressed
to enterprises. It should be mentioned that as at the end of 2014 327 enterprises (including SMEs) took
advantage of the support and implemented an innovation with the help of a business environment
institution, and it is estimated that the number of such enterprises can rise to approx. 1,000.
Another important aspect of the development of business environment institution is the infrastructure
supporting innovative activities of enterprises. Support for the creation and development of innovation
centres (5.3 Support for innovation centres of the IE OP), mainly science and technology parks, was
aimed at the creation of favourable conditions for the growth of enterprises operating in the field of new
technologies and based on cutting-edge solutions, as well as provide access to comprehensive
solutions for entrepreneurs intending to implement new solutions as well as scientists looking for an
opportunity to start pursuing their own business activity. The list of supported projects includes 12
leading national technological parks. Projects concerning the extension of technology parks are
classified as complex tasks, comprising the following implementation stages: construction of the
infrastructure: buildings and their surroundings (the main cost item of the project), essential amenities,
recruitment of technology park occupiers (settling innovative companies in the facilities), purchase and
commissioning of professional equipment. Parks supported under the IE OP before the end of 2014
provided state aid and de minimis aid to 666 entities in a total amount of PLN 32.4 million.
The financial framework 2014-2020 provides for co-financing of the pro-innovation services rendered
by business environment institutions, primarily the innovation centres, from the central level (mainly the
Smart Growth Operational Programme 2014-2020 – SG OP). The aforementioned services should be
adjusted to the needs of their recipients as well as should contribute to the emergence of innovation in a
comprehensive manner.124
The objective of Sub-measure 2.3.1 Pro-innovation services of business environment institutions for
SMEs under the SG OP is to improve the offer of pro-innovation services provided by business
environment institutions which support SMEs in the process of implementing technological product or
process innovation carried out in different fields of National Smart Specialisations. Financial services
under the sub-measure will be provided by accredited entities. The implementation of pro-innovative
services shall result in the intensification of R&D&I activities of enterprises.
Networks of business environment institutions will also be developed by cooperation within Key National
Clusters (KKK). The co-financing under Sub-measure 2.3.3 Internationalisation of Key National Clusters
Smart Growth Operational Programme 2014-2020, adopted by the Council of Ministers in January 2014 and approved by
the European Commission in February 2015.
124
297
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
of the SG OP covers comprehensive services supporting a given cluster and/or its members in entering
foreign markets, in particular with high-tech products.
On the other hand, Measure 3.1 Financing innovation of SMEs with venture capital of the SG OP
provides for support for development of financial instruments that are alternatives to bank loans and are
addressed to innovative start-ups. The instruments include seed capital, venture capital and loans.
Moreover, the measure also offers co-financing for costs related to capital and bond markets (e.g. GPW,
NewConnect, Catalyst). It is expected that under Sub-measure 3.1.2 Group investments of business
angels in SMEs - BizNest members of business angels network will participate in capital investments.
Sub-measure 3.3.1 Polish Technology Bridges of the SG OP is also aimed at business environment
institutions. The aim of the sub-measure is to accelerate the development of Polish enterprises.
298
TABLES
Table 1 Main indicators of economic situation in years 2005-2014 (dynamics, previous year = 100) ................... 26
Table 2 GDP growth rate in constant prices in reference to the previous year...................................................... 30
Table 3 Basic US economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages ........................................ 31
Table 4 Basic Japanese economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .............................. 32
Table 5 Basic eurozone economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .............................. 33
Table 6 Basic German economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages ................................ 34
Table 7 Basic British economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages ................................... 35
Table 8 Basic French economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .................................. 36
Table 9 Basic Italian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .................................... 36
Table 10 Basic Chinese economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .............................. 37
Table 11 Basic Indian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages.................................. 38
Table 12 Basic Brazilian economy development indicators (YoY), expressed in percentages .............................. 38
Table 13 GDP and consumer price growth rate in the CIS countries (YoY), expressed in percentages ............... 40
Table 14 Change dynamics in global goods and services trade in the years 2013-2015 (in relation to the
previous year), expressed in percentages ................................................................................................... 41
Table 15 Change dynamics in the volume of global commodities trade in the years 2012-2014 (in relation to the
Table 16 Countries with a dominant position in terms of global commodities turnover in 2014............................. 46
Table 17 Changes in global commodities turnover and global GDP in the years 2012-2016 (in relation to the
Table 18 Projected changes in trade turnover volume (goods and services) in the years 2014-2016 (YoY),
expressed in percentages ............................................................................................................................ 49
Table 19 Public finance sector performance in the EU, USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016 ......................... 50
Table 20 Public finance sector debt in the EU, the USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016 ................................ 52
Table 21 Allocation of funds to programmes within the framework of the Cohesion Policy (2007-2013) .............. 82
Table 22 The utilisation of funds under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) ............................. 83
Table 23 Comparison of the shares of individual thematic objectives in the overall Cohesion Policy allocation
for the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 perspectives .......................................................................................... 88
Table 24 Proposed allocation for operational programmes under the 2014-2020 perspective.............................. 89
Table 25 Main beneficiaries and support areas of national operational programmes for the years 2014-2020 .... 90
Table 26 Main beneficiaries and support areas of the regional operational programmes (including for the
Mazowieckie Voivodeship) under the 2014-2020 perspective ..................................................................... 91
Table 27 Ease of doing business rankings ............................................................................................................ 94
Table 28 Ranking of countries according to the number of jobs created by FDI ................................................... 95
Table 29 Ranking according to the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI).............................................................. 95
Table 30 Ranking of economic freedom ................................................................................................................ 96
Table 31 The IMD Ranking.................................................................................................................................... 96
Table 32 Headline indicators of the Europe 2020 strategy – Poland compared to EU-28 countries ..................... 98
Table 33 Changes in GDP in the years 2003-2014 (annual average growth rate for periods and comparison
of activity levels) for select EU and eurozone countries ............................................................................... 99
Table 34 GDP and domestic demand growth rate in the years 2005-2014 (in constant prices) .......................... 101
Table 35 Demand decomposition of GDP in the years 2008-2014 (in percentage points) .................................. 102
Table 36 Economic growth factors in Poland in the years 2003-2014 (contribution in percentage points).......... 103
Table 37 Employment rate in Poland among persons aged 15-65 in comparison to the EU (in percentages) .... 103
Table 38 Average number of weekly working hours per employed person in Poland compared to other EU
country groups averags ............................................................................................................................. 104
Table 39 Changes in consumption expenditures in the years 2003-2014 in comparison to other countries ....... 104
Table 40 Average dynamics of gross fixed capital formation in the years 2003-2014 ......................................... 107
Table 41 Accumulation and investment rates as compared to changes in GDP and fixed capital formation (in
percentages) .............................................................................................................................................. 107
Table 42 Gross public and private sector expenditures in the years 2008-2014 (as a percentage of GDP) ....... 107
Table 43 Average dynamics of changes in the export of goods and services (in real terms) in the years 20032014 ........................................................................................................................................................... 109
299
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
Table 44 Changes in GDP and gross value added in the years 2008-2014 (expressed in percentages) ........... 112
Table 45 Changes in the structure of value added in the years 2005, 2008-2014, in current prices ................... 112
Table 46 Comparison of GDP per capita of selected EU countries (according to purchasing power parity)
in the years 2005, 2010-2014 ................................................................................................................... 113
Table 47 Persons aged 20-64 employed in years 2008-2014 ............................................................................. 115
Table 48 Situation on the labour market in 2008-2014 in the age group of 20-64 (in percentages) .................... 115
Table 49 Average employment in the enterprise sector in years 2012-2014 (in thousands) ............................... 117
Table 50 Share of people aged 25 and above who participated in any activity linked with raising their
vocational qualifications and other skills in years 2007-2013..................................................................... 119
Table 51 Poland’s trade turnover between 01.2014 and 06.2015 ....................................................................... 126
Table 52 Changes in the geographical structure of Polish trade in goods and their impact on the trade balance
(in EUR million) .......................................................................................................................................... 129
Table 53 Changes in the commodity structure of Polish foreign trade in 2014 and their impact on trade balance
(in EUR million) ......................................................................................................................................... 134
Table 54 CPI and core inflation index in 2014 and the successive months of 2015 ............................................ 143
Table 55 Budget revenues and expenditures in years 2013-2014 ...................................................................... 150
Table 56 Structure of state budget expenditure in years 2006-2014 (in %)......................................................... 151
Table 57 State Treasury debt and public finance sector debt in years 2007-2014 (PLN billion and % of the
GDP) .......................................................................................................................................................... 153
Table 58 Meeting of the Maastricht criteria by Poland......................................................................................... 156
Table 59 Dynamics of production, employment, efficiency and salaries and changes in unit labour costs in
sections of industry in years 2013 and 2014 .............................................................................................. 160
Table 60 Changes in industrial output by sections of industry, in current prices ................................................. 162
Table 61 Sold production, its dynamics and structure in current prices by divisions of manufacturing section
in the years 2013 and 2014........................................................................................................................ 162
Table 62 Manufacture of selected products in the years 2012-2014 ................................................................... 163
Table 63 Production and financial results of the hard coal mining companies in which the State Treasury has a
controlling stake in years 2013 and 2014................................................................................................... 164
Table 64 Production of electricity from RES in the years 2005-2014 .................................................................. 180
Table 65 Degree of implementation of obligations for the period until 2020 imposed under the National Action
Plan (in percentages) ................................................................................................................................. 180
Table 66 Structure of household energy consumption according to types of usage (%) ..................................... 183
Table 67 Dynamics and structure of sold construction and assembly output in companies employing more
than 9 people in 2013-2014 ....................................................................................................................... 201
Table 68 Number of apartments commissioned in 2012-2014 according to the type of construction scheme .... 203
Table 69 Dynamics of gross value added in constant prices in years 2008-2014 (in percentages) .................... 208
Table 70 Economic entities within the services sector according to ownership sectors and PKD 2007 sections
in years 2012-2014 .................................................................................................................................... 209
Table 71 Employment level in the services sector as at 31.12. (in thousands) in 2012-2014 ............................. 209
Table 72 Number of employed persons of the economic entities operating in the trade and repairs section
divided according to the Polish Classification of Activities, in years 2012-2014......................................... 211
Table 73 Economic entities in the trade and repair section divided according to the number of employees and
the Polish Classification of Activities divisions in years 2012-2014............................................................ 211
Table 74 Basic economic and financial data for the transportation and storage section, divided according to
PKD (Polish Classification of Activities) divisions in 2014 in the enterprises sector ................................... 215
Table 75 Share of the private sector in the basic categories of the economy (in percentages) .......................... 219
Table 76 Number of enterprises encompassed by ownership transformation processes and revenues from
privatisation in 1990-2014 .......................................................................................................................... 222
Table 77 Basic features of the micro-enterprises sector in years 2011-2013 ...................................................... 226
Table 78 Newly established enterprises in Poland in years 2005-2013 .............................................................. 227
Table 79 Revenues, costs and results by types of activities, and gross and net results in the years 2013 and
2014 (PLN billion) ...................................................................................................................................... 227
Table 80 Changes in revenues and results in 2014 (in comparison with 2013), in PLN billion ............................ 228
Table 81 Revenues, results, profitability – sections of the economy in the years 2013 and 2014 ....................... 235
300
Table 82 Revenues, results, profitability – ownership sectors and enterprises according to their size in the
years 2013 and 2014 ................................................................................................................................. 237
Table 83 Ten largest companies in terms of sales revenues and net profit generated in 2014 (PLN million) ..... 238
Table 84 Investments (including the purchase of used fixed assets) and the potential for their financing with
investment surplus, debt and potential time of its repayment, liabilities and financial liquidity in the
sections of the economy in 2013 and 2014................................................................................................ 240
Table 85 Investments (including the purchase of used fixed assets) and the potential for their financing with
investment surplus, debt and potential time of its repayment, liabilities and liquidity in ownership sectors
and in enterprises according to the size thereof in 2013 and 2014 ............................................................ 241
Table 86 Capital expenditure in years 2009-2014 (in PLN billion) ....................................................................... 243
Table 87 Capital expenditure in individual sections of the economy in years 2013 and 2014 (in PLN billion),
current prices ............................................................................................................................................. 243
Table 88 Capital expenditure in the manufacturing industry by divisions of the Polish Classification of Activities
(PKD) in years 2013 and 2014, expressed in PLN million ......................................................................... 244
Table 89 Investment commenced in specific sections of the economy in years 2011-2014................................ 245
Table 90 Value of credits and deposits of enterprises in years 2011-2015 (in PLN billion) ................................. 245
Table 91 Polish foreign direct investments in years 2008-2013 (in EUR million) ................................................ 247
Table 92 Basic financial categories of companies with foreign capital participation with the number of
employees exceeding 9 persons as compared to entities submitting balance sheet statements in years
2011-2013 (as at the end of year), in PLN million ...................................................................................... 249
Table 93 Value of export and import as well as share of foreign companies in the Polish international trade
turnover (in PLN billion) in years 2007-2013 .............................................................................................. 250
Table 94 Revenues from sales, exports-to-sales ratio and employment in selected foreign companies in
Poland in years 2012-2014 ........................................................................................................................ 250
Table 95 Structure of FDI inflow to Poland in years 2007-2013 (in EUR million) ................................................ 253
Table 96 Geographical breakdown of the FDI inflow into Poland by countries of investment capital origin and
the level of liabilities as at the end of 2013 (in EUR million)....................................................................... 256
Table 97 Sectoral structure of FDI inflow into Poland as well as liabilities as at the end of 2013 (in EUR million)
................................................................................................................................................................... 257
Table 98 Innovation indices for Poland and the EU............................................................................................. 262
Table 99 Technology parks in Poland ................................................................................................................. 267
Table 100 Tax relief ............................................................................................................................................. 277
Table 101 Locations and effects of the operation of SSEs as at the end of 2014 ............................................... 288
Table 102 Activities of loan funds cooperating within the NSS as at the end of 2014 ......................................... 295
301
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
CHARTS
Chart 1 Performance of the public finance sector in the EU, the eurozone, the USA and Japan in the years
2009-2016 .................................................................................................................................................... 49
Chart 2 Public finance sector debt in the EU, the eurozone, the USA and Japan in the years 2009-2016 ........... 51
Chart 3 GDP changes in the EU in 2014 (YoY), expressed in percentages .......................................................... 53
Chart 4 Industrial output in the EU in 2014 (YoY), expressed in percentages ....................................................... 54
Chart 5 Construction sector output in the EU in 2014 (in relation to the previous year), expressed in percentages
..................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Chart 6 Number and percentage of queries submitted in 2014, categorised according to their subject matter ..... 67
Chart 7 Share of industry in value added in 2014.................................................................................................. 73
Chart 8 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) in contracts signed, by voivodeships, in division into national
and regional operational programmes, in absolute terms. As at 30th of June 2015 ..................................... 84
Chart 9 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) under signed contracts, by voivodeships, in division into
types of beneficiaries. As at 30th of June 2015 ............................................................................................. 84
Chart 10 Amount of EU co-financing (PLN million) under signed agreements, by voivodeships, in division into
thematic areas. As at 30th of June 2015....................................................................................................... 85
Chart 11 Projects implemented by enterprises, by operational programmes, as at the end of May 2015 (PLN
billion)........................................................................................................................................................... 86
Chart 12 GDP growth in the years 2001-2014..................................................................................................... 100
Chart 13 Demand decomposition of GDP in individual quarters in the years 2008-2015 .................................... 101
Chart 14 Domestic and foreign demand contribution to GDP growth in the years 2005-2014 ............................ 105
Chart 15 Contribution of domestic demand components to GDP growth in the years 2008-2015....................... 105
Chart 16 Changes in annual private consumption (data seasonally adjusted) and consumer prices in the years
2008-2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 106
Chart 17 Changes in gross fixed capital formation (left axis) and GDP (right axis) in the years 2008-2015 ....... 108
Chart 18 Contribution of individual components of gross fixed capital formation ................................................ 108
Chart 19 Contribution of export and import of goods and services to economic growth in the years 2008-2015 109
Chart 20 Changes in the export of goods and services (left axis) and economic growth (right axis) in the years
2008-2014 .................................................................................................................................................. 110
Chart 21 Relative unit labour costs and real effective exchange rate (right panel) in Poland compared to other
countries and the eurozone (2005=100). ................................................................................................... 111
Chart 22 Sectoral decomposition of GDP growth in the years 2005-2014 .......................................................... 113
Chart 23 Employment rates for Poland and EU-28, according to age groups (for persons aged 20-64)............. 116
Chart 24 Average employment in the enterprise sector in years 2007–2015 ...................................................... 117
Chart 25 LFS unemployment rate and registered unemployment rate in the years 2007-2015 .......................... 118
Chart 26 Unemployment rate according to level of education (within the 20-64 age group) in 2014................... 119
Chart 27 Monthly trade in goods between 01.2014 and 06.2015 ........................................................................ 126
Chart 28 Monthly export and import dynamics between 01.2014 and 06.2015 ................................................... 127
Chart 29 Share of individual market groups in Polish exports in 2015 ................................................................ 128
Chart 30 Commodity structure of Polish export in 2014 in comparison to years 2009 and 2013 ........................ 135
Chart 31 Commodity structure of Polish import in 2014 in comparison to years 2009 and 2013 ........................ 136
Chart 32 Foreign trade turnover balance according to commodity groups in 2014 in comparison to years 2010
and 2013 .................................................................................................................................................... 136
Chart 33 Changes in the pace of growth in transaction, foreign currency and NEER prices in exports in the
years 2000-2014 ........................................................................................................................................ 139
Chart 34 Changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the years 2009-2014 ................................. 141
Chart 35 CPI changes in relation to the corresponding month of the previous year ............................................ 142
Chart 36 Changes in the prices of industrial output sold in comparison to the corresponding month of the
previous year ............................................................................................................................................ 144
Chart 37 Changes in prices of construction and assembly output in comparison to the corresponding month
of the previous year ................................................................................................................................... 144
Chart 38 CPI and net inflation indices as compared to the adopted inflation target and the range of acceptable
fluctuations ................................................................................................................................................. 146
Chart 39 Interest rates and CPI ........................................................................................................................... 147
302
Chart 40 Budget deficit and general government sector deficit (PLN billion – left axis and % of GDP – right axis)
................................................................................................................................................................... 152
Chart 41 Changes in industrial output sold by sections of industry in 2013 and 2014 (compared to the previous
year) ........................................................................................................................................................... 157
Chart 42 Changes in output, employment and labour efficiency in the industry in 2013 and 2014 (compared
to the previous year) .................................................................................................................................. 159
Chart 43 Changes in labour efficiency by sections of industry in 2013 and 2014 (compared to the previous year)
................................................................................................................................................................... 159
Chart 44 Changes in labour efficiency, real wages and unit labour costs in the industry in 2013 and 2014
(compared to the previous year) ................................................................................................................ 160
Chart 45 Changes in unit labour costs in individual sections of industry in the years 2013 and 2014
(compared to the previous year) ................................................................................................................ 161
Chart 46 Rate of return on gross sales for selected branches of the chemical sector ......................................... 169
Chart 47 RES installed capacity in the years 2006-2015 .................................................................................... 180
Chart 48 Primary energy and final energy consumption ...................................................................................... 182
Chart 49 Final energy consumption in Poland by sectors ................................................................................... 183
Chart 50 Final industrial energy consumption by energy carriers ........................................................................ 184
Chart 51 Changes in energy intensity (left axis) and electricity intensity (right axis) of value added in the service
sector ......................................................................................................................................................... 185
Chart 52 Changes of gross fixed capital formation and gross value added in the construction sector in years
2011-2014 (in % compared to the previous year, in constant prices) ........................................................ 199
Chart 53 Changes of gross fixed capital formation and gross value added in the construction sector in years
2011-2014 (in %, compared to the previous year, in constant prices). ...................................................... 200
Chart 54 Newly registered and deregistered entities in the national economy under the REGON system ......... 225
Chart 55 The structure of newly established enterprises in 2013 ........................................................................ 226
Chart 56 Financial result on business activities as well as gross and net financial results in the years 2013
and 2014 (PLN billion) ............................................................................................................................... 228
Chart 57 Profitability ratios in the years 2013 and 2014 (in %) ............................................................................ 229
Chart 58 Share of industry sections in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure and industry debt level
in 2014 (in %) ............................................................................................................................................. 232
Chart 59 Share of industry and non-industrial sections in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure
and debt level in 2014 (in %)...................................................................................................................... 234
Chart 60 Share of ownership sectors in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure and debt level
in 2014 (in %) ............................................................................................................................................. 236
Chart 61 Share of entities (according to the size thereof) in total revenues, gross result, capital expenditure and
debt level in 2014 (in %) ............................................................................................................................ 238
Chart 62 Changes in capital expenditures in years 2010-2014 (in %, as compared to the previous year,
constant prices).......................................................................................................................................... 242
Chart 63 Changes in capital expenditure of economic entities (current prices) and in corporate liabilities under
investment loans in years 2012-2015 (in %, compared to the previous year) ............................................ 246
Chart 64 FDI inflow into Poland in years 2005-2013 (in EUR billion) .................................................................. 251
Chart 65 FDI Stock in Poland 2003-2013 ............................................................................................................ 255
Chart 66 Summary Innovation Index (SII) for selected countries ........................................................................ 260
Chart 67 The most important barriers to the development of entrepreneurship in the second half of 2014 ........ 272
Chart 68 Assessment of legal provisions regulating business activity in the second half of 2014 ....................... 273
303
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
BOXES
Box 1 Results of in-depth reviews ......................................................................................................................... 58
Box 2 Five Presidents' Report ............................................................................................................................... 60
Box 3 Recommendations of the Council of the EU for Polish economic policy ..................................................... 64
Box 4 The SOLVIT out-of-court dispute resolution network................................................................................... 67
Box 5 Barriers to free movement of services ......................................................................................................... 68
Box 6 Integrated Education System ...................................................................................................................... 71
Box 7 Main migration challenges faced by the EU ................................................................................................ 72
Box 8 Headline indicators – definitions .................................................................................................................. 97
Box 9 Amendment to the Act on the Promotion of Employment and Labour Market Institutions......................... 120
Box 10 Youth Guarantees in Poland ................................................................................................................... 122
Box 11 New Act on Foreigners – the most important changes ............................................................................ 124
Box 12 Core inflation measures .......................................................................................................................... 143
Box 13 Fiscal rules .............................................................................................................................................. 153
Box 14 Measures aimed at public finance consolidation ..................................................................................... 154
Box 15 Industry support programme for the Śląskie Voivoideship and Western małopolska .............................. 166
Box 16 Pharmaceutical sector within the framework of the National Smart Specialisation ................................. 171
Box 17 Rules governing the sales of timber ........................................................................................................ 175
Box 18 The issue of free emission allowances for electricity producers .............................................................. 186
Box 19 Development of interconnections ............................................................................................................ 191
Box 20 Priorities in the management of the portfolio of entities supervised by the Minister of Treasury up to
2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 220
Box 21 Polish foreign investments in 2013 and 2014 .......................................................................................... 248
Box 22 Changes in presentation of FDI data ....................................................................................................... 253
Box 23 Programme for the Support of Investments of Considerable Importance for the Polish Economy for
Years 2011-2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 254
Box 24 CIP Programme for the years of 2008-2014 and COSME Programme for the years of 2014-2020 ........ 265
Box 25 Technology park ...................................................................................................................................... 267
Box 26 The Research and Development Centre Status ...................................................................................... 277
Box 27 Programmes of the European Space Agency ......................................................................................... 278
Box 28 Stimulation of export on selected markets promotional programme........................................................ 280
Box 29 The COIE network – An offer for entrepreneurs ...................................................................................... 283
Box 30 Terms and conditions for granting public aid to enterprises operating in Special Economic Zones ........ 286
Box 31 Polish Cluster Benchmarking – 2014 edition ........................................................................................... 290
Box 32 Directions and guidelines for cluster policy in Poland until 2020 ............................................................. 291
304

POLAND 2015 ECONOMY

Transcription

Similar documents

World Youth Day

Historical Background Briefing Conditions of

Public Debt Clock

Polish Film Festival Flyer 8_5x5_5

Newsletter no. 4 - Kujawska Szkoła Wyższa we Włocławku

by Mazurkas Travel - Mazurkas Travel Poland

Newsletter VALIANS 07 2016

Powiatowy Ośrodek Sportu i Zarządzania Lokalami w Miętnem

Page 11 - PoloniaSF.org

Prezentacja nowego produktu