Sebastian Helgenberger: Dissertation thesis

Transcription

The capacity of business organizations to respond to the
short-term and long-term impacts of climate change
Case studies on the Alpine winter tourism industry in Austria
PhD thesis submitted in
partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree
Doctor rer.soc.oec
at the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna
prepared in the framework of the
Doctoral School Sustainable Development (dokNE) by
Sebastian Helgenberger
Supervisors:
Prof. Dr. Bernhard Freyer (Division of Organic Farming, BOKU)
Prof. Dr. Helga Kromp-Kolb (Institute for Meteorology, BOKU)
Prof. Dr. Michael Pregernig (Institute of Forest and Environmental Policy, University of Freiburg)
Reviewers:
Prof. Dr. Alfred Posch (University of Graz)
Prof. Dr. Helga Kromp-Kolb (BOKU Vienna)
Vienna, March 2010
This thesis has been prepared in the framework of the doctoral school Sustainable Development (DOKNE) at
BOKU University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria. The doctoral school is funded
by the Austrian Research Program on Sustainability “provision” as well as by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the states Lower Austria, Styria, and Vienna.
Abstract
Growing scientific evidence suggests a high economic vulnerability of the Alpine
winter tourism industry to climate change. Economic impacts of climate change are
expected to result from both a shift in long-term climate means (e.g. average
temperature in winter) and changing frequencies and intensities of short-term climate
extreme events (e.g., snow poor winter seasons). These insights have triggered a
discussion on business responses to observed and projected impacts of climate change
that allow sustaining the business in spite of a change in climatic conditions, it
traditionally depends on.
Business organizations are the primary socio-economic units where business
responses to climate impacts are expected to occur. The question, to what extent they
have the capacity to plan and implement the suggested response options, has been
only touched marginally, so far. Understanding the conditions under which business
responses in the Alpine winter tourism industry effectively occur remains a
bottleneck to enable organizations to cope with the impacts of climate change. The
thesis provides insights into the implications of short-term and longer-term impacts
of climate change on business planning and contributes to an understanding of the
determinants of organizational responses to these impacts.
The thesis develops the conceptual framework to describe and to understand the local
implications of climate change from an organizational perspective. The framework
integrates concepts and insights on the existing literature on organizational
management in the context of dynamic environments with the state of research on
climate change in the European Alps. The conceptual contributions are
complemented by qualitative case studies on business planning in the context of
climate change in two Austrian winter tourism destination. In total 20 caseorganizations have been examined, mainly based on semi-structured interviews with
organizational managers. The qualitative approach allowed to inductively exploring
this novel research field, at the same time drawing on the introduced concepts and
thereby linking to the existing literature.
Based on the interdisciplinary literature synthesis, a model of business responses to
climate change is proposed for the Alpine winter tourism industry that – in addition
to existing systematic – allows classifying response options according to their
ii
CONTENTS
function of coping with the impacts of shorter-term extreme events and impacts of
shifting longer-term climate mean conditions. Based on the empirical case studies
enablers and inhibitors of business responses to climate change in the Alpine winter
tourism industry have been identified and synthesized in three categories: the (i)
awareness of the implications of climate change for business planning, the (ii)
commitment to plan and implement responses as well as the (iii) resources to do so.
The three categories are at the center of a redefined ‘capacity of response’ concept for
the Alpine tourism industry.
The thesis contributes to strengthening the social science perspective in to date
mainly natural science oriented climate impact research and emphasizes the
importance of integrated research approaches to tackle the societal challenges of
climate change. With respect to the Alpine winter tourism industry, the thesis
provides starting points for capacity building in business organizations and tourism
destinations to successfully cope with the challenges of climate change.
CONTENTS
iii
Zusammenfassung
Eine wachsende Anzahl wissenschaftlicher Studien belegt die hohe wirtschaftliche
Verletzlichkeit des alpinen Wintertourismussektor gegenüber einer Veränderung der
lokalklimatischen Bedingungen. Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen des
Klimawandels ergeben sich dabei sowohl aus einer langfristigen Veränderung
klimatischer Mittelwerte (zB der winterlichen Durchschnittstemperatur) als auch aus
einer Veränderung in der Stärke und Häufigkeit von klimatischen Extremen (zB
schneearme Wintersaisons). Auf Grundlage dieser Erkenntnisse wird die Diskussion
um unternehmerische Anpassungsstrategien lauter, durch die der Fortbestand des
Tourismusgeschäfts vor dem Hintergrund beobachteter und erwarteter Klimafolgen
gesichert werden kann.
Klimaanpassung in der Wintertourismusbranche findet letzten Endes auf der Ebene
von Tourismusbetrieben statt. Die Frage inwieweit die Betriebe überhaupt in der
Lage sind, die vorgeschlagenen Anpassungsstrategien in ihrer Planung zu
berücksichtigen und umzusetzen, wurde bislang im wissenschaftlichen Diskurs nur
ansatzweise gestellt. Um alpine Tourismusbetriebe zu befähigen, den lokalen Folgen
des Klimawandels zu begegnen, ist es allerdings entscheidend, die Bedingungen zu
verstehen, unter denen Klimaanpassungen tatsächlich stattfinden können. Die
Dissertation zeigt die unterschiedlichen Konsequenzen von lang- und kurzfristigen
Klimafolgen für Tourismusbetriebe auf und identifiziert wesentliche organisatorische
Grundlagen für die Umsetzung von entsprechenden Anpassungsstrategien.
Die Arbeit entwickelt den konzeptionellen Rahmen, um die Herausforderungen des
Klimawandels aus einer Unternehmensperspektive heraus zu beschreiben und zu
verstehen. Dafür werden Konzepte und Erkenntnisse der bisherigen Forschung zu
Organisationsplanung und betrieblichem Management in dynamischen
Unternehmensumfeldern mit dem Stand des Wissens über Klimaveränderung im
europäischen
Alpenraum
zusammengeführt.
Aufbauend
auf
diesem
erkenntnisleitenden Rahmen über die Bedeutung des Klimawandels für die alpine
Wintertourismusbranche, präsentiert die Arbeit die Ergebnisse von qualitativempirischen Fallstudien zur unternehmerischen Planung in zwei österreichischen
Wintertourismusdestinationen. Im Zentrum der Fallstudienanalyse stehen die
Erkenntnisse aus halboffenen Leitfadeninterviews über die Managementprozesse in
insgesamt 20, im lokalen Wintertourismusgeschäft tätigen, Organisationseinheiten.
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CONTENTS
Auf Grundlage der interdisziplinären Literatursynthese zu den Konsequenzen des
Klimawandels für die unternehmerische Planung im alpinen Wintertourismus wird
eine Systematik über betriebliche Anpassungsoptionen vorgeschlagen. Im Zentrum
der Systematik steht ein Modell der Funktionen verschiedener Anpassungsstrategien
zum Umgang mit kurzfristigen Extremereignisse und langfristigen Veränderungen
der klimatischen Durchschnittsbedingungen. Mit der Berücksichtigung der
Auswirkungen von Extremereignissen werden gängige Anpassungsmodelle der
alpinen Wintertourismusbranche um einen wesentlichen Aspekt erweitert. Auf
Grundlage der Fallstudien zur unternehmerischen Planung mit diesen
Anpassungsoptionen
werden
organisatorische
Grundlagen
zur
Klimawandelanpassung entlang von drei zentralen Kategorien identifiziert: (i)
Bewusstsein über die Konsequenzen des Klimawandels für die unternehmerische
Planung, (ii) die Bereitschaft zur Planung und Umsetzung von
Anpassungsmaßnahmen, sowie (iii) die organisatorischen Ressourcen zur
Klimawandelanpassung. Die drei Kategorien bilden den Kern einer empirisch
begründeten
Konzeptionalisierung
zum
Vermögen
von
alpinen
Wintertourismusbetrieben, die Unternehmung auf die lokalen Folgen des
Klimawandels einzustellen.
Die Arbeit trägt dazu bei, die sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektive in einer bislang stark
naturwissenschaftlich geprägten Klimafolgenforschung stärker in den Vordergrund zu
rücken und hebt die Bedeutung interdisziplinärer Forschungsansätze zur Bewältigung
der gesellschaftlichen Herausforderungen des Klimawandels hervor. Im Hinblick auf
die
alpine
Wintertourismusbranche
werden,
basierend
auf
den
Fallstudienergebnissen, Ansatzmöglichkeiten zur Steigerung des organisatorischen
Anpassungsvermögens im Kontext des Klimawandels aufgezeigt und eine
Forschungsagenda in diesem neuen Feld entwickelt.
Acknowledgments
A big thank-you goes to my team of advisors. The challenges of conducting a PhD
thesis are multi-dimensional, with the scientific dimension being only one among
others. I was lucky to have a team around me whose support has been multidimensional, as well. Bernd Freyer helped me keeping the overview and timing over
the past three years and has been an extraordinary moral support during this time.
He enriched the research process not least by sharing and discussing his
interpretations of my empirical observations. Michael Pregernig provided intensive
and essential methodological company to my studies. He excited me to accept the
challenges and surprises of qualitative research. Helga Kromp-Kolb supported me
both by her comprehensive expertise in climate impact research and her passionate
approach of a responsible science. She encouraged me that ‘walk the talk’ particularly
applies to sustainability science and that paying attention to the ecological footprint
of one’s research not least is a question of scientific credibility.
I would like to thank Herbert Formayer from the Institute of Meteorology at BOKU
University for his great efforts in discussing and reviewing the text and readily sharing
his expertise and data. By organizing the ETH-PhD Academy on Sustainability and
Technology, Volker Hoffmann from the Department of Management, Technology,
and Economics at the ETH Zurich established one of best learning environments
that I have experienced so far. He, together with Andrew Griffith and Martina
Linnenluecke from the University of Queensland Business School, Tima Bansal from
the Richard Ivey School of Business and Monika Winn from the University of
Victoria Business School, encouraged me to look into the business-organizational
perspective on climate change. Their expertise and advise gave my research an
essential and exciting turn. Harald Heinrichs, Andreas Matzarakis and Claudia
Barthels from the Kuntikum research project on climate adaptation in the German
tourism industry allowed me to link my research to a broader context. Furthermore, I
would like to thank Franz Prettenthaler and Nadja Vetters from Joanneum Research
Graz for generously sharing their socio-economical data on my case-destinations.
I want to express my gratitude to the hard-working transnational Open-Source
community, particularly to the Openoffice, Freemind and Bibus-Bibliography project
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CONTENTS
teams that provided me with important tools for my work. With their work they
prove how barrier-free spaces for collaboration and information trigger creativity and
excellence and facilitate quick responses in a highly dynamic environment.
In the life of a PhD candidate, the dichotomy between the private and the academic
increasingly gets blurred. Andreas Kaufmann taught the Jazz to my ten fingers,
supporting me in letting loose the inevitable disharmonies arising now and then in
the process of conducting a PhD thesis. By introducing me to the lion’s breath, Heidi
Mayr provided me with an equally suitable, neighbourhood-friendly alternative. The
biggest thank-yous go to the two women that are sharing their lives with me: to Jule
Fielitz for starting the Viennese adventure and after three years of participating in the
multi-dimensional challenges in the life of a PhD candidate for having the kindness
of reviewing the whole product; and to Aino Lia Cayenna Fielitz, currently the
world’s leading expert in inductive, grounded theory building, for opening a new
chapter in my story of life.
Special thanks go to spring for arriving just in time, just like every year.
Contents
Acknowledgments...................................................................................v
Index of tables.........................................................................................x
Index of figures....................................................................................xiii
Index of text boxes................................................................................xv
List of abbreviations.............................................................................xvi
1. Introduction.......................................................................................1
1.1 Climate change as challenge to business planning in the Alpine winter tourism
industry.....................................................................................................................5
1.2 Concept and contributions of the thesis....................................................................9
1.3 Overview and structure of the thesis.......................................................................12
2. Climate impacts on the Alpine winter tourism industry....................15
2.1 Concepts of climate change and its impacts on society............................................19
2.2 Approaches to climate research: observational analyses and model projections.......24
2.3 Observed and projected climate trends....................................................................32
2.4 Economic impacts of climate change on the Alpine winter tourism industry..........43
3. Business responses to climate impacts in the Alpine winter tourism
industry............................................................................................57
3.1 Role of environmental dynamics from the perspective of organization and
management theory.................................................................................................62
3.2 Environmental change in the Alpine winter tourism industry – need to respond....69
3.3 Climate response strategies and measures in the Alpine winter tourism industry.. ..76
3.4 Adaptness of the Alpine winter tourism industry towards impacts of climate change.
................................................................................................................................85
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CONTENTS
3.5 Capacity of Alpine winter tourism businesses to engage in climate responses..........90
4. Research interest.............................................................................103
4.1 Existing research gaps............................................................................................106
4.2 Research motivation..............................................................................................110
4.3 Research questions................................................................................................111
4.4 Sensitizing concepts...............................................................................................112
5. Methodology..................................................................................115
5.1 Rationale: Embedded qualitative case study analysis.............................................118
5.2 Sampling of the cases............................................................................................122
5.3 Inquiry of the empirical data.................................................................................126
5.4 Analysis of the empirical data................................................................................129
5.5 Structuring and documenting the case study results..............................................134
6. Results of the case studies...............................................................135
6.1 Managers’ awareness of the business implications of climate change.....................142
6.2 Managers’ commitment to respond to climate change..........................................157
6.3 Organizational resources and room for maneuver..................................................167
6.4 Synopsis – enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate change in the caseorganizations.........................................................................................................184
7. Discussion......................................................................................193
7.1 Discussion of the research approach......................................................................196
7.2 Discussion of the findings.....................................................................................202
8. Conclusions....................................................................................221
8.1 Business responses to the impacts of climate change in the Alpine winter tourism
industry.................................................................................................................226
8.2 The capacity of business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry to
respond to climate change.....................................................................................232
References..........................................................................................243
CONTENTS
ix
Annex.................................................................................................259
A 1. Case profiles.........................................................................................................260
A 2. Catalog of additional empirical material..............................................................320
A 3. Interview guides...................................................................................................324
For a detailed index please refer to the individual chapters
x
CONTENTS
Index of tables
1. Introduction......................................
2. Climate impacts on the Alpine winter
tourism industry................................
Table 2.1: SRES emission scenario families ......28
Table 2.2: Linear trends of climate variables in
four Austrian sub-regions for summer
(S – months 4 to 9, years 1910-1999)
and winter season (W – months 10 to
3, years 1890-2000).........................39
Table 2.3: Present and future natural snow-reliability of ski areas in the European Alps
on a national level ...........................48
Table 2.4.: Impacts of climate change on the
Alpine tourism sector.......................50
Table 2.5: Average costs and resource consumption of snowmaking ........................52
3. Business responses to climate impacts
in the Alpine winter tourism industry
.........................................................
Table 3.7: Response measures currently used or
planned to be used by business
managers in Austria’s low altitude ski
resorts .............................................87
Table 3.8: A typology of environmental scanning
and forecasting systems....................98
Table 3.9: Synthesis: Suggested determinants of
organizational responses...................99
Table 3.10: Synthesis of organizational characteristics of small tourism firms ..........101
4. Research interest................................
Table 4.1: Sensitizing concepts on climate vulnerability and climate impacts............113
Table 4.2: Sensitizing concepts on organizational
responses to environmental / climate
change...........................................113
5. Methodology.....................................
Table 5.1: Groups of organizations involved in
the local winter tourism sector ......124
Table 3.2: Important types of organizations
involved in the local winter tourism
business...........................................70
Table 5.2: Sources of empirical evidence.........127
Table 3.3: ‘Six reasons to adapt to climate change
now’................................................74
6. Results of the case studies..................
Table 3.4: Organizational strategies and measures
to respond to the impacts of shifting
long-term climate means (1/2): protect
the affected business........................78
to respond to the impacts of shifting
long-term climate means (2/2): expand
beyond the affected business............79
to respond to the impacts of shortterm climate extreme events: crisis
management ...................................81
Table 5.3: Guiding questions of the coding
procedure......................................132
Table 6.1: Empirical sample: Represented case-organizations and interview partners
......................................................138
Table 6.2: Relevance of trends in the local winter
and summer climate for organizational
action and types of managers’ strategic
orientation with respect to climate
change...........................................139
Table 6.3: Categories and dimensions managers’
constructs on climate change (assumptions on the course and timing of the
dynamics of local climate change and
impacts attributed to climate change)
......................................................144
CONTENTS
Table 6.4: Sources of evidence on which individual sensemaking about climate
change draws on............................145
Table 6.5: Constructs of the exposure to climate
change: enablers and inhibitors of
organizational responses to climate
change...........................................150
Table 6.6: Constructs of the sensitivity to climate
impacts: enablers and inhibitors of
change...........................................152
Table 6.7: Realm of considered business options
to respond to climate change: enablers
and inhibitors of organizational
responses to climate change...........156
Table 6.8: Priority of investment incentives: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
......................................................161
xi
7. Discussion.........................................
Table 7.1: Analyzed empirical studies on business
planning in the context of climate
change...........................................203
8. Conclusions......................................
Table 8.1: Intraand
inter-organizational
processes contributing to the capacity
of Alpine winter tourism businesses to
plan and implement business responses
to climate change...........................236
Annex...................................................
Table A.1: Climate sensitivity indicators of the
case-destinations............................260
Table A.2: Climate exposure indicators of the
case-destinations 1/2......................261
Table A.3: Climate exposure indicators of the
case-destinations 2/2......................261
Table 6.9: Responsibility to implement climate
responses: enablers and inhibitors of
change...........................................163
Table A.4: Socio-economical indicators of the
case-destinations............................264
Table 6.10: Planning horizon: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to
climate change...............................166
Table A.6: Types of climate response strategies
......................................................276
Table 6.11: Information capital: enablers and
inhibitors of organizational responses
Table 6.12: Human capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to
climate change...............................175
Table 6.13: Financial capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to
climate change...............................177
Table A.5: Skiing infrastructure of the case-destinations........................................264
Table A.7: Planned and implemented response
measures [EA]................................278
Table A.8: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to
climate extremes and shift in climate
means [EA]....................................279
measures [IL].................................281
Table A.10: Enablers and inhibitors of responses
to climate extremes and shift in
climate means [IL].........................282
Table 6.14: Social capital: enablers and inhibitors
of organizational responses to climate
change...........................................181
measures [IU]................................284
Table 6.15: Decision autonomy: enablers and
inhibitors of organizational responses
climate means [IU]........................285
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CONTENTS
measures [JF].................................287
measures [HU]..............................312
climate means [JF].........................288
climate means [HU]......................313
measures [MN]..............................291
measures [IY].................................315
climate means [MN]......................292
climate means [IY].........................316
measures [RC]...............................294
measures [ME]..............................318
climate means [RC].......................295
climate means [ME]......................319
measures [TK]...............................297
Table A.35: Typology of deliberate response
options considered by the managers
(strategy: expand beyond the affected
business)........................................320
climate means [TK].......................298
measures [XU]...............................300
climate means [XU].......................301
measures [DQ]..............................303
climate means [DQ]......................304
measures [GQ]..............................306
climate means [GQ]......................307
measures [HF]...............................309
climate means [HF].......................310
Table A.36: Typology of deliberate climate
response options considered by the
managers (strategy: protect snow based
winter tourism products)...............321
Table A.37: Typology of deliberate climate
managers (strategy: crisis management)............................................321
Table A.38: Typology of non-deliberate climate
managers to open up new sources of
revenue..........................................322
CONTENTS
xiii
Index of figures
1. Introduction......................................
Figure 2.1: Frequency distribution of a normally
distributed climate variable (e.g. daily
mean temperature). .......................20
Figure 2.2: Schematic diagram depicting how
changes in mean and variance can
affect extreme weather and climate
events.............................................21
Figure 2.3: Gamma-distributed
probability
density functions, e.g. precipitation
regimes...........................................22
Figure 2.4: Basic concepts of climate change and
its impacts......................................23
Figure 2.5: Basic components of climate models
.......................................................27
Figure 2.6: Development of the global annual
mean temperature relative to the
1961-1990 average. .......................33
Figure 2.7: Global warming projections for the
21st century based on different emission scenarios. ................................34
Figure 2.8: Change in temperature extremes
corresponding to different emission
scenarios. Parts b) and d) represent
changes in spatial patterns between
two 20-year means (2080-2099 minus
1980-1999)....................................35
Figure 2.9: Changes in precipitation extremes
corresponding to different emission
scenarios. Parts b) and d) represent
changes in spatial patterns between
two 20-year means (2080-2099 minus
1980-1999......................................36
Figure 2.10: Climatic regions in Austria based on
patterns of strong precipitation in
winter season..................................37
Figure 2.11: Smoothed (30y) annual mean air
temperature for low and high (Alpine)
elevations in Austria........................38
Figure 2.12: Summer (JJA) temperature trends
for Austria in comparison to the
1971-2000 reference period............40
Figure 2.13: Winter (DJF) temperature trends for
Austria in comparison to the 19712000 reference period ....................41
Figure 2.14: Number of natural snow reliable ski
areas in Austria and Germany
(Bavaria) under present and future
climate conditions..........................49
.........................................................
Figure 3.1: Organizational resilience in case of a
shorter-term extreme event.............72
Figure 3.2: Organizational resilience in the case
of repeated short-term extreme events
.......................................................73
Figure 3.3: Simplified business resource cycle. ..76
Figure 3.4: Model of response strategies to feed
the business resource cycles under
conditions of short-term climate crises
and long-term shifts in climate averages, exemplified along the Alpine
cable car business............................83
Figure 3.5: Schematic of organizational learning
cycle...............................................97
Figure 3.6: Number and share of different types
of accommodation businesses in
Austria (2009)..............................100
5. Methodology.....................................
Figure 5.1: Process of empirical data integration
.....................................................130
xiv
CONTENTS
Figure 5.2: Recursive process of data coding and
interpretation...............................133
Figure A.6: Occurrence of extreme storm events
in the case destinations.................266
Figure A.7: Natural snow cover in the case-destinations in the core winter season
[DJF] ..........................................267
Figure 6.1: The four analytic categories of the
case studies...................................140
Figure 6.2: Learning cycle on the economic relevance of climate change..................142
Figure 6.3: Inductively developed typology of
case-organizations with respect to size,
ownership structure and the degree of
formalization of information management routines...............................171
7. Discussion.........................................
8. Conclusions......................................
Figure 8.1: Bi-functional model of organizational
responses to climate change, exemplified along the Alpine cable car business..............................................227
Annex...................................................
Figure A.1: Summer and winter mean temperature change in the case-destinations
(1976-2008).................................262
Figure A.2: Loss of skier days in destination A
due to lack of snow in winter (DJF) –
comparison of different snowmaking
technologies with regard to different
climatic events..............................263
Figure A.3: Loss of skier days in destination B
due to lack of snow in winter (DJF) –
comparison of different snowmaking
technologies with regard to different
climatic events..............................264
Figure A.4: Shares of the quality segments in the
accommodation businesses of case-destinations A and B with regard of
the total amount of beds provided
.....................................................265
Figure A.5: Local business networks in the case-destinations:
cooperations
and
weight of the involved organizations
.....................................................265
Figure A.8: Categorization of organizational characteristics associated with climate
responses......................................323
CONTENTS
xv
Index of text boxes
1. Introduction......................................
Box 1.1: Leading question of the thesis..............9
Box 8.2: Redefinition of the ‘capacity of response’
for business organizations in the Alpine
winter tourism industry...................234
Box 8.3: Building local capacity of response: joint
information management.................238
.........................................................
Box 8.4: Building local capacity of response: joint
response planning............................239
Box A.1: Climate change construct of the head of
the municipality in destination A ....271
5. Methodology.....................................
Box 5.1: Conception of ‘cases’ in the empirical
study................................................119
Box 5.2: Criteria for the selection of case-destinations.................................................123
Box 6.1: Types of managers with respect to balancing personal and external evidence
about climate change.......................149
Box 6.2: Information management of the cable
car operators....................................169
Box 6.3: Information management of tourism
associations and local destination
management....................................170
Box 6.4: Information management of the individual tourism firms (accommodation,
gastronomy, ski school)....................172
Box 6.5: Illustration: impact of social capital on
the implementation of mountain biking
infrastructure in destinations A and B
........................................................180
7. Discussion.........................................
8. Conclusions......................................
Box 8.1: Main research questions of the thesis
........................................................224
Annex...................................................
Box A.2: Climate change construct of the head of
the municipality in destination B ....275
xvi
CONTENTS
List of abbreviations
AOGCM
CH
CIPRA
DJF
EC
ENSO
ETH
F
f.
ff.
GCM
GDP
GER
GHG
I
i.e.
ibid.
IP
IPCC
JJA
NAO
ND
OECD
ÖHV
ÖSTAT
RBV
RCM
REMO-UBA
SAT
SLO
SRES
UBA
UFZ
UNEP
UNWTO
WMO
ZAMG
Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
Switzerland
Commission Internationale pour la Protection des Alpes (International
Commission for Protection of the Alps)
December, January, February
Commission of the European communities
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
France
following page
following pages
Global climate model
Gross-domestic product
Germany
Greenhouse gas
Italy
id est
ibidem
interview partner
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change
June, July, August
North Atlantic Oscillation
November, December
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Österreichische Hoteliervereinigung (Austrian Hotelier Association)
Statistics Austria
Resource-based view of management
Regional Climate Model
REgional climate Model, developed by the Max Planck Institute on behalf of
the German Federal Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt – UBA)
surface air temperature
Slovenia
IPCC Special report on emission scenarios
Umweltbundesamt (German Federal Environmental Agency)
Umweltforschungszentrum (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)
United Nations Environmental Program
United Nations World Tourism Organization
World Meteorological Organization
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics. Austria)
1. Introduction
Chapter Contents
1.1 Climate change as challenge to business planning in the Alpine
winter tourism industry...................................................................5
1.2 Concept and contributions of the thesis...........................................9
1.3 Overview and structure of the thesis...............................................12
INTRODUCTION
3
C
limate change and the tourism industry – the interconnections between
supply and societal demand of tourism products and the natural-climatic
environment have emerged as research field since the global tourism
industry has been identified as major contributor to human-induced global warming 1
(Gössling 2002, Simpson et al. 2008). As a consequence the impact of the tourism
industry on the climate system as well as options for mitigating these impacts has
been at the center of interest in this research field. However, tourism is not only a
contributor to climate change. Given the close relationship between local climatic
conditions and the local tourism products it is at the same time also particularly
affected by climate change. This is particularly true for Alpine winter tourism that
has been identified as climate-tourism hotspot (Becken & Hay 2007) and that to
date is based to a large extent on a local climate that allows for reliable snow
conditions. Within the last decade and particularly within the past five years a
growing cognition of the economic risks of climate change on the tourism industry
has triggered research on the impacts of climate change and on potential response
strategies of the tourism industry to cope with changing climatic conditions.
Growing evidence exists about climate impacts on the winter tourism industry in the
European Alps and the national importance of these impacts in Alpine countries like
Austria and Switzerland to whose national economies Alpine tourism industry is a
major contributor (Östat 2009). A recent study of the Austrian Hotelier Association
(ÖHV) has revealed that more than 65% of the Austrian winter tourism
communities can be characterized as being very or fairly vulnerable to climate change
(ÖHV 2008). The insights on observed and projected impacts as well as on response
options to date are only poorly accompanied by corresponding research approaches
addressing the capacity of Alpine tourism firms to plan and implement these options.
Against this background this thesis contributes to this research field on the basis of
two motivations that also reflect the basic assumptions of the thesis:
(i) S o c i e t a l r e l e v a n c e o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e a s a r e a l - w o r l d c h a l l e n g e .
Climate change challenges traditional economic patterns in Alpine communities.
In Alpine countries like Austria the tourism sector plays a major role for the local
1 “In 2005, tourism’s contribution to global warming was estimated to contribute between 5% and
14% to the overall warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gasses” (Simpson et al.
2008: 15)
4
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
and national value creation. In Alpine tourism the winter sport sector represents
the most important source of income (ÖHV 2008). Climate change thus
challenges the economical well-being of many Alpine communities. Particular
research efforts are required to assist these communities in reconciling their
economic bases in the context of major environmental transformations,
(ii) S t r e n g t h e n i n g t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e p e r s p e c t i v e i n r e s e a r c h o n
c l i m a t e c h a n g e . Climate change above all is a societal challenge that therefore
not only depends on the dynamics in the physical-climatic environment, but on
the relevance of this dynamics for different societal groups as well their
motivations and capabilities to cope with the resulting challenges. The natural
scientific contributions to understanding effective and potential impacts on
climate change are an essential prerequisite for exploring and implementing
societal strategies to cope with climate change. However, not until the societal
context of response strategies, motivations and capabilities are better understood
societal responses are feasible. Particular social scientific research efforts are
required to overcome this bottleneck in understanding and tackling the
challenges of climate change.
The introduction to this thesis is structured as follows: The challenges of climate
change to business planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry are examined
more in detail in chapter 1.1. In this context the notion of climate vulnerability is
introduced as a central concept of the thesis. The overall concept of the thesis is
presented in chapter 1.2, together with a summary of key contributions. Chapter 1.3
provides an overview on the individual chapters 2 to 8 and describes the structural
framework of the thesis and how the different parts relate to each other.
CLIMATE CHANGE AS CHALLENGE TO BUSINESS PLANNING IN THE
ALPINE WINTER TOURISM INDUSTRY
5
1.1 Climate change as challenge to business planning in the
Alpine winter tourism industry
Given the substantial economic impacts of climate change the Alpine tourism
business represents one of the h o t s p o t s with respect to detrimental impacts of
climate change on human societies (Becken & Hay 2007). This particularly holds
true for the winter tourism business that to a large extent is strongly linked to snowbased winter sports activities (Elsasser & Bürki 2002). The current state of research
on observed and projected impacts of climate change provides a number of
indications that the Alpine winter tourism industry is extraordinary vulnerable to
climate change, in particular to the involved warming trend that put the snow
availability in ski resorts at risk (ibid., OECD 2007). Against the background of both
the socio-cultural and the economic importance of the winter tourism business for
Alpine destinations its vulnerability to climate change represents a major real-world
challenge that calls for thorough scientific analyses.
The vulnerability of Alpine winter tourism to climate change results from the
interrelation of dynamics in the climatic-physical environment and societal
susceptibilities to these dynamics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has brought forward a definition of the v u l n e r a b i l i t y concept that
emphasizes this interrelation and therefore is considered an adequate integrative
concept for this thesis:
Vu l n e r a b i l i t y is a function of the s e n s i t i v i t y of a system to changes in climate (the
degree to which a system will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficial and
harmful effects), a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y (the degree to which adjustments in practices,
processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of
opportunities created by a given change in climate), and the degree of e x p o s u r e of the
system to climatic hazards.
Schneider et al. 2001: 89, original emphases
The s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e A l p i n e w i n t e r t o u r i s m b u s i n e s s to climate
change results from its strong economic dependency on specific local climatic
conditions that allow for developing and maintaining snow-based winter sport
activities to offer as tourism products (Elsasser & Bürki 2002). This economic
dependency refers to different levels – the micro level of individual firms, the meso
level of resorts as tourism destinations and the macro level of the national economy.
6
Remaining on the local level, the e x p o s u r e o f t h e A l p i n e w i n t e r t o u r i s m
b u s i n e s s to climate change appears in two types of impacts that need to be
distinguished: Physical impacts of climate change refer to the changes in local
climatic parameters, such temperatures, precipitation, natural snow cover.
Contingent on the business’ dependency on these parameters physical impact trigger
economical impacts that are eventually of relevance to the tourism business.
Economic impacts can appear both immediate as result from a specific event, like a
warm spell in winter season (short-term impacts) and accumulated as result from a
persistent mismatch between the local climate conditions and the favored tourism
product (long-term impacts). Correspondingly the a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e
A l p i n e w i n t e r t o u r i s m b u s i n e s s refers to the degree to which the tourism
business or related organizations, like firms, can take responsive measures to
moderate both short-term and long-term impacts of climate change. Given that the
terms adaptation and adaptive capacity in the prevalent debate are primarily used in
reference to adjustments to long-term impacts of climate change the term c a p a c i t y
o f r e s p o n s e will be used in this thesis to point out the different challenges of
responding to short-term and long-term impacts.
The vulnerability concept emanates from the research fields of natural hazards and
disaster management. It has gained prominence in the field of global change research
in recent years for assessing the intensity of detrimental impacts of environmental
changes as well as for assessing resulting societal weaknesses (Dietz 2005, Füssel
2007). Its increasing utilization resulted in a plethora of different definitions and subspecifications (for a synopsis see Füssel 2007). However, two main discourses on the
notion of vulnerability can be identified that also have been integrated in the above
definition by the IPCC (quoted as Schneider et al. 2001).
The first discourse represents a natural science concept and considers the intensity,
frequency and character of changes in the physical environment, such as droughts,
heavy precipitation, warm or cold spells, as the principal source of potential problems
for local communities. This approach is widely applied by engineers and economists
with a technical perspective on natural hazards and disaster management (Dietz
2005, Füssel 2007). The second discourse takes in a social science perspective and
asks for the societal capabilities resulting from socio-cultural and personal
characteristics as well as spatial-infrastructural factors to cope with environmental
CLIMATE CHANGE AS CHALLENGE TO BUSINESS PLANNING IN THE
7
changes. This social vulnerability approach is widely used in the development
discourse, particularly drawing on the works of Sen (Dietz 2005, see: e.g. Sen 1993).
These two discourses have also shaped the discussions on vulnerabilities in the
context of climate change. According to Füssel the natural science perspective puts an
emphasis on long-term climate change and discusses how to proactively adapt to
future climatic conditions, relying on future climate scenarios (‘end-point
interpretation’ of vulnerability). In contrast the ‘starting point interpretation’ focuses
on the societal ability to cope with short-term climatic hazards resulting from the
variability of local climatic conditions which is in turn considered as a prerequisite to
sustain functioning on the long run (Füssel 2007, cf. Dietz 2005).
The above IPCC definition of vulnerability integrates both discourses,
acknowledging that vulnerability is an “outcome between environmental and socioeconomic forces” (Fraser et al. 2003: 141) and therefore reveals that the challenges
that are imposed by climate change emanate both from climatological and societal
phenomena. It is the function of interactive effects not merely single factors (Næss et
al 2006). The definition has found wide acceptance in the climate impact research
community and meanwhile is the basis for many research projects on vulnerability
assessments on the local, municipal level (ibid.). In agreement with the above
argument the definition is adopted for this study.
With respect to the current state of scientific insights on the different vulnerability
dimensions a review of the existing literature reveals that a large gap exists between
knowledge on phenomena of climate change and their economic impacts on the one
hand and knowledge on the societal perspective of responding to these impacts on
the other hand. The gap can be explained by the asynchronicity of research on these
research strands given that climate change research has been initiated by natural
science disciplines whose works laid the groundwork for addressing the issue of
societal response. As a consequence a growing stock of knowledge and increasing
degree of certainty exists with regard to the challenges of climate change for local
decision making from the impact side (Næss et al 2006). Research on the winter
tourism industry, for instance, consistently projects overall detrimental consequences
resulting from climate change. Studies on the economic impacts of climate change on
the ski tourism business have been conducted for several countries: Australia, Austria,
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, United States, “each projecting
8
negative impacts, though to varying degrees and over different time horizons” (for
detailed listing see Scott et al. 2008: 578). These research contributions on climate
impacts are contrasted by a lack of social science research on business planning and
decision making in the context of these impacts. However, a growing comprehension
exists – inside and beyond the research strand on Alpine winter tourism – that the
state of knowledge on the societal challenges of climate change represents a
bottleneck for facilitating societal (business) responses to climate change. Given the
existing insights on the bounded rationality of human action and decision making
(cf. Simon 1959, Tversky & Kahnemann 1981) it has become evident that
knowledge on the impacts of climate change is not sufficient to trigger societal
response, but rather other aspects, such as the capacity of organizations and
individuals to take responsive action needs to be taken into account (Næss et al 2006,
Adger et al. 2007). This understanding not least also refers to the Alpine winter
tourism industry where effective response decisions are being made mainly by
managers of the respective firms (cf. Hoffmann et al. 2009).
Given the relevance and the existing knowledge gaps, the thesis aims to explore the
social science perspective of climate vulnerability within the context of business
planning of the Alpine winter tourism industry as one climate vulnerability hot spot
in Europe. The presented notion of the capacity of response with its interrelations to
the other two dimensions of the vulnerability concept – sensitivity and exposure to
the impacts of climate change – is therefore used as focal point to explore the societal
challenges of climate change to business planning in the Alpine tourism sector.
CONCEPT AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE THESIS
9
1.2 Concept and contributions of the thesis
In its focus on the capacity of response in the context of climate change the thesis is
motivated by two strands: (i) tackling the real-world problem of the Alpine winter
tourism industry, being particularly vulnerable to climate change and (ii) the existing
need to strengthen the social science perspective in climate vulnerability research with
particular focus on the perspective of business planning (cf. page 3 of the
introduction). These two motivations are expressed by the leading question of this
thesis (box 1.1). In view of the f o c a l p o i n t – the exploration of the capacity of
response concept – the leading question represents the s t a r t i n g p o i n t for setting
up its ontological, epistemological, methodological and normative framework. It
serves as orientation to review the state of existing research on the two specified
strands.
Through which ways can the phenomenon of climate change be understood
from the real-world perspectives of business planning in the Alpine winter
tourism industry?
Box 1.1: Leading question of the thesis
From an o n t o l o g i c a l v i e w p o i n t the leading question implies to put the
tourism firms in the center of interest and consider climate change as one
phenomenon – amongst others – in their organizational environment. The
exploration of their capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change therefore
needs to emanate from the organizations’ perspective and take their specific planning
conditions and context into account.
From an e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l v i e w p o i n t the leading question suggests that natural
science research strands, providing concepts and context knowledge on the impacts of
climate change on different spatial and time scales, need to be integrated with social
science research strands, providing concepts and insights on how business
organizations and their managers approach these impacts. The novelty of this
interdisciplinary perspective on climate change as challenge to business planning
implies that exploring this research strand – while making use of existing concepts
10
and knowledge – needs to actively seek after perspectives running counter or across
prior insights.
From a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l v i e w p o i n t the leading question’s ontological and
epistemological implications suggest that the exploration of the capacity of response
concept needs to be based on both a conceptual integration of existing, mostly
unrelated natural and social science strands and on an empirical insights on realworld business planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry. That means that the
methodological approach needs to allow for inductive theory development,
comprising deductive elements to allow for connectivity to existing strands of
research.
From a n o r m a t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e the leading question clarifies that albeit the
question of business responses to climate change has been identified as relevant for
the Alpine winter tourism industry the thesis does not make a statement about
whether a particular tourism firm or destination should engage in certain responses
or not. In fact, the thesis is motivated by understanding the organizational and
contextual conditions that provide Alpine tourism firms with the capacity to take
these responsive actions and not by assessing capacities of response from an outside,
normative perspective. As the thesis is also motivated by contributing to applicable
remedies to the described societal challenges of climate change it, however, develops
the basis to conduct internal or external assessments of that kind.
In this respect the thesis contributes to the conceptual development in the field of
organizational responses to short-term and long-term impacts of climate change in
the Alpine winter tourism industry. Based on an extensive literature review a model
of business responses to climate impacts is developed that links existing research on
physical climate impacts to concepts of organization and management theory. The
model development aims at increasing the comprehension of different response
functions with respect to short-term and long-term impacts of climate change. The
thesis further contributes to the substantiation of existing concepts on societal and
organizational capacities to respond to climate change – that so far remain rather
abstract and ambiguous – by re-conceptualizing the ‘capacity or response’ with
particular focus on the Alpine winter tourism industry, drawing on empirical findings
in this business context. The elaborated capacity of response concept provides the
CONCEPT AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE THESIS
11
basis for practical recommendations on capacity building in firms of the Alpine
winter tourism industry.
12
1.3 Overview and structure of the thesis
The thesis is conceptualized in two core parts that equally contribute to the research
motivation of the thesis: (i) Guided by the leading question (cf. box 1.1: 9)
organizational business planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry in the context
of climate change is initially explored from a theoretical-conceptual perspective
(chapters 2 and 3). For the purpose of integrating existing concepts and knowledge
from both natural scientific global change studies and social scientific organization
and management studies contributing to this research context an extensive review of
existing literature has been conducted. (ii) On the basis of identified research gaps,
research questions have been elaborated to frame an empirically grounded theory
development, basing on the first part and complementing it (chapters 4 to 7).
Chapter 2 (pages 1 5ff.) on cli mate impac ts on the Alpine winter
t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y introduces central concepts and findings on climate change
and its impacts on society. The differences as well as the interrelations between shortterm and long-term impacts as a consequence of an increasing frequency and
intensity of climate extreme events and a shift in climatic mean values are pointed
out.
Chapter 3 (pages 5 7ff.) on business responses to climate change
i n t h e A l p i n e w i n t e r t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y introduces central concepts to
comprehend climate change as one amongst other dynamics in the organizational
environments of local tourism firms. Existing and proposed response strategies and
measures to short-term and long-term impacts of climate change are linked to these
concepts.
Chapter 4 (pages 10 3ff.) for mulates the empiric al research
i n t e r e s t of the thesis, building on research gaps that have been identified in the
literature review provided in chapters 2 and 3 with respect to the thesis’ leading
question. The empirical research questions are linked to the state of research by
defining sensitizing concepts to guide the empirical inquiry and analysis.
Chapter 5 (pages 11 5ff.) develops the methodol ogy of the
e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h p a r t of the thesis. Building on the formulated
methodological considerations (chapter 1.2) the rationale for conducting qualitative
OVERVIEW AND STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS
13
case studies is explained. The empirical research process is justified and presented step
by step.
C h a p t e r 6 ( p a g e s 1 3 5 f f . ) o n t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e c a s e s t u d i e s provides
empirical insights in the real-world context of business planning in the context of
climate change. Enabling and inhibiting organizational conditions of taking
responsive action are exemplified along dominant patterns of observed business
planning. The individual case profiles that illustrate the specific challenges of business
responses to climate change are provided in the annex of this thesis (pages 260ff.).
Chapter 7 (pages 193ff.) opens up the discussion of the
e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h p a r t of the thesis. Given the limited prior qualitative
approaches to the research context the discussion of the research approach provides
lessons learned for future inquiries. Discussing the transferability of the case study
results to a broader population provides the basis for conclusions on the research
questions beyond the studied cases.
Chapter 8 (pages 221ff.) provides conclusions with respect to the
r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s of the thesis. Important conceptual and empirical findings of
the thesis are summed up. Based on the synthesis a redefined, empirically grounded,
concept of the capacity of Alpine tourism firms to respond to climate change is
proposed along with a functional model of business responses to climate impacts.
Implications for future research and the practical applications of these concepts are
formulated.
2. Climate impacts on the Alpine
winter tourism industry
Chapter Contents
2.1 Concepts of climate change and its impacts on society...................19
2.2 Approaches to climate research: observational analyses and model
projections.....................................................................................24
2.2.1 Climate observations and statistics.......................................................................24
2.2.2 Climate projections..............................................................................................27
Climate scenarios.............................................................................................................27
Climate models................................................................................................................29
Coping with uncertainties................................................................................................30
2.3 Observed and projected climate trends...........................................32
2.3.1 Global observations and projections ....................................................................33
Temperature....................................................................................................................33
Precipitation...................................................................................................................35
2.3.2 Observations and projections for the Austrian Alps..............................................37
Past observations..............................................................................................................38
Future projections............................................................................................................40
2.4 Economic impacts of climate change on the Alpine winter tourism
industry.........................................................................................43
2.4.1 Economic sensitivity of the Alpine winter tourism industry.................................43
2.4.2 Observed and projected climate impacts on the Alpine winter tourism industry
.............................................................................................................................47
16
CHAPTER 2. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE ALPINE WINTER TOURISM
INDUSTRY
Physical impacts of climate change on Alpine winter tourism destinations...........................47
Negative economic impacts of climate change.....................................................................50
Positive economic impacts of climate change......................................................................52
Regional exposure factors..................................................................................................53
Estimates for the Austrian winter tourism economy under the conditions future warming.....54
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE ALPINE WINTER TOURISM INDUSTRY
17
S
ince the beginning of the 1990s, in particular with the start of the new
millennium, increased efforts have been made to illuminate the local
impacts of global environmental change on human societies. Besides its role
as a major contributor to anthropogenic induced climate change the tourism industry
soon has been also identified to be among the economical sectors being a potential
subject to major impacts of climate change (Dubois & Ceron 2006, Simpson et al.
2008). Given the great dependency on snow-based winter tourism this was found to
be particularly true for the tourism industry in mountainous regions such as the
European Alps (OECD 2007). The increasing efforts in studying local climate
impacts on the Alpine winter tourism industry have been driven by the accumulation
of temperature anomalies since the 1990s (ibid., Beniston & Stephenson 2004). They
have been facilitated by the scientific progress in climate research particular on
account of the collaborative works by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, see e.g. IPCC 2007a). The increasing level of understanding of the
complex interrelation in the global climate system allowed increasing both the spatial
resolution and the time horizon of evidences about past and future climate impacts.
For this chapter the scientific literature on climate research in general and climate
research with respect to the impacts of climate change on the Alpine tourism sector in
particular have been reviewed. The synthesis of the state of research on different
spatial scales (interrelations between global change and local change processes) and
time scales (mutual understanding of past observations and future projections) is to
provide a structure to understand how global change processes eventually affect the
local business in the Alpine tourism industry. Therefore this chapter represents the
scientific perspective on climatic phenomena that decision makers in the tourism
industry might perceive with different eyes from a different perspective. In the
context of the thesis, this chapter represents the natural scientific background of
climate vulnerability research. It not least provides the basic terminology and the
main concepts of climate research on which the subsequent chapters will refer to.
The chapter is structured as follows: The first part (2.1) provides an overview about
important c o n c e p t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d i t s i m p a c t s o n s o c i e t y . It
addresses important climatic parameters as well as the relationship between climate
variability and mean conditions and the role of extreme events as the basic trigger of
climate impacts. Existing a p p r o a c h e s t o c l i m a t e r e s e a r c h , mainly analyses of
18
INDUSTRY
past observations and future projections on the basis of climate models are presented
in the second part (2.2). Part three (2.3) goes into the latest insights of climate
research and describes o b s e r v e d a n d p r o j e c t e d c l i m a t e t r e n d s on the
global scale and their interrelations with regional climate factors that altogether shape
climate trends in the Austrian Alps. The final part (2.4) of this chapter links the
knowledge about local climate trends to economical dependencies of Alpine winter
tourism industry on specific climatic conditions. A literature review on observed and
projected impacts of climate change on the industry as a consequence of the interplay
between climate trends and economic dependencies is provided, revealing the
industry’s vulnerability to climate change.
CONCEPTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON SOCIETY
19
2.1 Concepts of climate change and its impacts on society
C l i m a t e in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as
the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a
period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period
for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological
Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature,
precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical
description, of the climate system.
C l i m a t e c h a n g e refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified
(e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
IPCC 2007a: 78, emphases: S.H.
Climate can be understood as the expression of the interacting of forcings and
circulations among different spatial and temporal scales (Giorgi et al 2001).
Understanding this interplay is crucial in order to understand the functionings of the
climate system and its local impacts in human society, its uncertainties and
singularities.
The climate can be described at different spatial levels. The global climate system sets
framework conditions for the local level, e.g. through global forcing anomalies such
as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO,
Giorgi et al 2001). It is in turn influenced by the cumulative local conditions, e.g.
through local albedo effects (Turner II et al. 1990, Giorgi et al 2001, Christensen et
al. 2007). Despite its global influences the local climate system is strongly shaped by
local characteristics such as latitude, topography, surface cover and surface inclination
(Giorgi et al 2001, Christensen et al. 2007). The local characteristics contribute to
the complexity of the climate system and complicate attempts to gain insights about
the future development of different climate variables, such as temperature,
precipitation or snow cover.
The processes that characterize the climate on a particular spatial scale also appear on
distinct time scales. Whereas the notion of climate refers to a statistical, l o n g - t e r m
m e a n in the values of climate parameters, typically spanning several decades
(cf. above definition), it is also characterized by a s h o r t e r - t e r m v a r i a b i l i t y in
the actually perceivable quantities of climate variables:
20
INDUSTRY
C l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as
standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and
temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural
internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural
or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).
(IPCC 2007a: 79, emphases: S.H.)
Climate change applies to both shorter- and longer-term climate phenomena and
therefore implies both of a change of shorter-term variability and a shift in the
statistical mean values of climate parameters.
With respect to the variability of the climate extreme weather and climate events are
receiving increased attention given that “the primary effects of climate on society
result from extreme events” (Katz & Brown 1992, cf. Easterling et al. 2000, Meehl et
al. 2000, Beniston & Stephenson 2004, Beniston et al. 2007, Trenberth et al. 2007,
Yohe & Tol 2002). In this respect extreme
events refer to climate and weather
phenomena with certain parameters going
beyond a critical threshold (Schneider et al.
2001). In contrast to short-term weather
phenomena, the term c l i m a t e e v e n t refers
to a weather pattern that “persists for some
time, such as a season” (cf. IPCC 2007a: 71).
Figure 2.1: Frequency distribution of a
Heat waves, cold spells, storm events, heavy
normally distributed climate
variable (e.g. daily mean
precipitation, droughts are among the events
temperature).
typically considered as extreme events
Shading indicates the extreme parts of the
(Easterling et al. 2000, Meehl et al. 2000,
distribution that occur infrequently (Source:
adapted from Meehl et al. 2000: 414)
Beniston & Stephenson 2004).
Extreme events are typically defined with respect to the occurrence of climate or
weather phenomena – that means its p h y s i c a l i m p a c t s , as in the case of the
preceding examples (cf. IPCC 2007a, see definition further below). These impacts on
natural-physical systems in turn imply s o c i o - e c o n o m i c i m p a c t s that are
ultimately relevant to the Alpine winter tourism industries or other sectors of the
socio-economic system (Easterling et al. 2000, Sarewitz & Pielke 2001, Beniston
2007). Socio-economic impacts of extreme events can be both beneficial, for instance
in terms of economic opportunities, and detrimental, for instance by inducing a
situation of economical crisis on the level of firms, destinations and beyond (Koenig
21
& Abegg 1997, Easterling et al. 2000, Beniston 2003, Ehmer & Heymann 2008). In
terms of socio-economic vulnerability to climate
change, however, much importance is attached to
the negative impacts of climate extremes. In this
regard the societal dimension of climate extreme
events in absence of an adequate common
terminology is referred to as c l i m a t e c r i s i s in
the thesis to emphasize the different physicalclimatological and socio-economic meanings of
these events.
Figure 2.2: Schematic diagram
depicting
how
changes in mean and
variance can affect
extreme weather and
climate events
(Source: Meehl et al. 2000: 414)
In order to understand how extreme events are
related to the climate conditions and how climate
change affects the occurrence of extreme events it is
useful to address the inherent variability of the
climate with regard of the statistical distribution of
particular climate and weather events (cf. Katz &
Brown 1992, Trenberth et al. 2007). The extremity
or rareness of the respective events refer to the
frequency distribution of singular weather or
climate events, such as the daily mean temperature
that result from the variations of the climate
variables (cf. Meehl et al. 2000, figure 2.1). Extreme
events represent the tails of the frequency
distributions
(Fankhauser
et
al.
1999).
Correspondingly, the IPCC defines extreme weather
and climate events in terms of their statistical
rareness:
An event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an
e x t r e m e w e a t h e r e v e n t would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th
percentile of the observed probability density function. ... When a pattern of extreme
weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classed as an e x t r e m e
c l i m a t e e v e n t , especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (e.g.,
drought or heavy rainfall over a season).
(IPCC 2007a: 71, emphases: S.H.)
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Climate change implies both shifts in the mean and in the variance of climate and
weather events (Karl et al. 1995). Both shifts have consequences for frequency and
intensity of extremes (Meehl et al. 2000, Folland et al. 2001: 155). A simple change
in the mean value of a climate variable, for instance an increase of the daily mean
temperature in winter season by 1°C, implies a decrease of extreme cold days and
increases the number of extreme warm days (figure 2.2a). In this context Meehl et al.
emphasize that “the frequency of extreme changes nonlineary with the change in the
mean of a distribution that is, a small change in the mean can result in large change
in the frequency of extremes (ibid.: 415). A change in the variance of climate
variables, i.e. the deviations from a long-term mean, results in an increase of events
on the margins of the distribution and thus in an increasing number of extreme
events (figure 2.2b). Furthermore, the
occurrence of extreme events can be
influenced simultaneously by a change in
mean and variance (figure 2.2c, cf. Meehl et
al. 2000). Indications exist that “extreme
events are relatively more sensitive to the
variability of climate than to its average”
(Katz & Brown 1992: 290, cf. Meehl et al.
2000).
Figure 2.3: Gamma-distributed
probability density functions,
It has to be noted that the discussed relations
e.g. precipitation regimes
between climate variability, statistical means
May differ in terms of their symmetry properties
and scales. The functions are defined by a scale
and the occurrence of extreme events base on
parameter θ and shape parameter k (source:
the assumption that the symmetry
wikimedia commons, cf. Meehl et al. 2000)
properties, of the distribution remain
unchanged. However, Schaeffer et al. have found evidence that the symmetry
properties of the distribution function could be altered due to large-scale changes in
the atmospheric circulation patterns and resulting local feedbacks (Schaeffer et al
2005, cf. Figure 2.3). This incidence adds to the complexity of model projections on
future climate change, addressed in the following section.
Basic concepts of the climate system and climate change as well as its impacts that
have been addressed in this chapter and will be referred to in the subsequent chapters
are synthesized in figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4: Basic concepts of climate change and its impacts
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2.2 Approaches to climate research: observational analyses
and model projections
This section delivers insights into the scientific background of the evidences on past
and future climate trends in the Austrian Alps. The section is divided into two parts:
First the background of climate observations and past statistics will be illuminated.
The second part deals with the approaches that are currently applied in climate
research, particularly by the IPCC reports, to project future climate change. Both
parts present different sources of evidence that are taken into account and present
approaches to process the collected data, address biases and uncertainties that come
along with studying the complex, dynamic climate system and explain approaches
that are applied to handle these difficulties. The latter is of particular importance in
order to interpret the evidences on past and future climate trends in the Austrian
Alps, presented in section 2.3.
The approaches to climate research yield evidences on different spatial and time
scales. Within the last decade much progress has been made to provide shorter-term,
more localized climate information, relevant for local decision makers to better
understand climate sensitivity and potential responses (Wilbanks & Kates 1999,
Solomon et al. 2007). Despite of the progresses the moderation of statistics and
modeled data between different spatial and time scales remains a major challenge of
climate research that involves difficulties with respect to accuracy and certainty of the
outcomes. In this section both challenges and implications for the evidences on past
and future climate change will be addressed.
2.2.1
Climate observations and statistics
Observational data about past climate change emanates from two different kinds of
sources of evidence, dependent on the time scale of analysis. Direct observational
records of global temperature estimates are available on a global scale with the
beginning of the ‘instrumental period’ in the 1850s (Auer et al. 2001, Solomon et al.
2007). On a regional scale first meteorological measurements were started in Austria
as early as 1653. A continuous and systematic measurement had been implemented
APPROACHES TO CLIMATE RESEARCH: OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSES AND
MODEL PROJECTIONS
25
in the mid 18th century (begin of the ‘instrumental period’ in Austria, Auer et al.
2001). Until the end of 19th century, a dense “large-scale all-Austrian network” with a
network density of 20km mean station distance has been established (ibid.). The
introduction of improved global, satellite measurements in the end of the 1970s for
the first time allowed a global perspective on a variety of climate variables (Trenberth
et al. 2007). Overall, the modern measurement of climate variables draws on a
multitude of further instruments such as stationary temperature and precipitation
gauges, ship-borne stations, buoys or radiosondes (ibid.). As it has been stated by
Trenberth et al. the reliability of global estimates have continuously improved since
the begin of the 20th century (Trenberth et al. 2007)
Recorded data is complemented by metadata about the measurement process itself,
which helps to homogenize data sets derived at different locations and different time
periods (Auer et al. 2001). In this regard Auer et al. note that “analysing climate
variability based on instrumental data is strongly dependent on the length and the
spatial density of the available time series, on the number of usable elements and on
data quality in terms of non-climatic inhomogeneities” (ibid.: 2). As a consequence
global climate dataset at a longer, centennial time-scale are still limited with regard to
the set of climate variables taken into account and the homogeneity of data (ibid.). In
order to extend the time-scale of evidence beyond the instrumental period direct
observational records are complemented by data from the pre-instrumental past that
draw on paleo-observations from proxy data as well as from ocean and ice-domains
(Solomon et al. 2007, Trenberth et al. 2007).
Information about past climate change on different spatial scales is processed by
“creating representative global gridded datasets”, using grid-boxes at different spatial
scales (Trenberth et al. 2007: SM.3-3). The dataset of grid-box values is mapped and
weighted to depict climate trends over different time periods on regional to global
scales (ibid.). Statistical interpolations and averaging processes are used to fill gridfields that are incomplete or noisy. The data processing has to cope with different
sources of errors and biases emanating the observation process as well as the very
processing of the data. Even though on a global scale biases are not considered
substantial enough to affect conclusions about the recent warming trend Trenberth et
al. detected incidents where biases caused an underestimating of recent warming
(ibid.).
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Inhomogeneities in the data records can arise due to non-climatic factors such as
changes in station location, instruments, instrumental drifts, observing time,
calculation algorithms for daily means, changes in land use and urbanization
processes (Auer et al. 2001, Böhm et al. 2001, Auer et al. 2005, Trenberth et al.
2007). Such observational biases can vary over time which “introduces biased trends
and low-frequency variations in analyses that are mixed with the true climate signal”,
resulting in a reduction on the reliability of long-timescale trends (ibid.: SM.3-8). For
conclusions on global trends climate analysts assume a certain probability that errors
and biases emanating from local observations become random and eventually even
out on a larger scale (Auer et al. 2005, Trenberth et al. 2007). For conclusions on a
regional scale, however, additional reanalyzes of datasets have to be applied (ibid.). It
has to be checked to what extent the observational data is representative for its wider
spatial surrounding of the spot of measurement (cf. ibid.). In the local scale the
density of the measurement network might not be sufficient to be able to identify
significant regional differences (Auer et al. 2001, Auer et al. 2005, Trenberth et al.
2007). Trenberth et al. hold that “trends averaged over small regions, in particular,
may be biased by systematic heterogeneities in the data” (ibid., cf. Böhm et al. 2001).
In this context the complexity of local precipitation regimes, unlike temperature,
represents a substantial challenge for the preparation of regional homogenized
datasets (Auer et al. 2005).
In order to improve the comparability of the source data combined physicalempirical techniques of data homogenization and adjustment are applied (Trenberth
et al. 2007, for a detailed description of the homogeneity tests for Alpine temperature
and precipitation datasets see Auer et al. 2001, Böhm et al. 2001, Auer et al. 2005).
In the process of data homogenization and adjustment measurement records are
reconciled with neighboring stations in order to identify trend-discontinuities due to
sampling biases. Furthermore correction factors are applied, such as a ‘wind-scale
correction factor’ that allows to compensate the underestimation of precipitation
measurements due to wind-induced evaporation (Trenberth et al. 2007).
MODEL PROJECTIONS
2.2.2
27
Climate projections
Projections about future climate trends draw on two main resources: GHG emission
scenarios and models on properties of the global climate system and their dynamic
interactions. The emission scenarios, representing plausible future emission trends,
provide the principle source of data input from which the climate models derive
potential future conditions of a set of climate variables (Meehl et al. 2007, see figure
2.5).
Figure 2.5: Basic components of climate models
(Source: Meehl et al. 2007: 753)
The use of emission scenarios is based on the knowledge about the impact on
atmospheric greenhouse gases on radiative forcing and hence the global radiation
budget. The anthropogenic GHG emissions are of particular interest since past
observations have revealed that “most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions” (IPCC 2007b: 10).
Climate scenarios
Since the work on the IPCC’s third assessment report climate projections are based
on the so called SRES-scenarios, published by the IPCC in its ‘special report on
emission scenarios’ (SRES, IPCC 2000). The scenarios assume a set of main driving
forces behind the future development of GHG emissions, namely “demographic
change, social and economical development, and the rate and direction of
technological change” (ibid.: 5). In total 40 SRES scenarios have been developed that
represent the future range of potential and plausible emission paths, thus
encompassing “the current range of uncertainties of future GHG emissions”
(ibid.: 3).
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Table 2.1: SRES emission scenario families
(Source: IPCC 2007b: 18)
A1
•
•
•
•
•
A1 sub-families (energy mix)
Population growth until mid 21st century,
decline afterwards
Very rapid economic growth
Rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technologies
Substantial reduction in regional differences
in per capita income
Convergence among regions, capacity
building and increased cultural and social
interactions
A2
•
•
•
•
•
•
Continuously increasing
population
Slow convergence of fertility
patterns across regions
Economic development
primary regionally oriented
Per capita economic growth
and technological change
more fragmented and slower
than in other storylines
Very heterogeneous world
Self-reliance and preservation of local identities
A1FI
• Fossil intensive
A1T
• Non-fossil energy
A1B
• Balanced across all sources
B1
•
•
•
•
Population growth until mid
21st century, decline afterwards (=A1)
Rapid change in economic
structures toward a service
and information economy
Reductions in material
intensity, introduction of
clean and resource-efficient
technologies
Global solutions to
economic, social and environmental sustainability,
improved equity
B2
•
•
•
•
•
Continuously increasing
population (lower than A2)
Intermediate levels of
economic development
Less rapid and more diverse
technological change than
A1 and B1
Emphasis on local solutions
to economic, social and
environmental sustainability
Orientation towards environmental protection and
social equity on local and
regional levels
The 40 scenarios base on four different storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2, see table 2.1) that
represent “different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental
developments” (ibid.). Those scenarios that refer to the same storyline constitute a
‘scenario family’. As the A1-storyline has been further differentiated with respect to
the aspect of the future energy mix employed by the global societies in total 6
scenario families have been defined (A1FI, A1B, A1T, A2, B1, and B2, IPCC 2007b,
see table 2.1).
MODEL PROJECTIONS
29
Climate models
C l i m a t e m o d e l : A numerical representation of the climate system based on the
physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and
feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties.
IPCC 2007a: 78, emphases: S.H.
Climate models exist in different complexities, i.e. number of physical, chemical,
biological processes and interrelations represented and degree by which these
processes are represented by dynamic numerical equations or else by parametrizations
that are based on empirical records in case the underlying processes are still
mathematically unresolved (e.g., formation of clouds, Solomon et al. 2007, IPCC
2007a).
Evidences on future climate change are derived from models of different spatial scales
and resolutions (Giorgi et al 2001, IPCC 2007a). Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are the basis on the future projections of
global climate conditions by the IPCC. AOGCMs represent the most comprehensive
numerical representations of the climate system which are currently in use. They
“include dynamical components describing atmospheric, oceanic and land surface
processes, as well as sea ice and other components” (Solomon et al. 2007: 67,
cf. IPCC 2007a). Even though the resolution of AOGCMs is constantly improved “it
is insufficient to capture the fine-scale structures of climatic variables in many
regions” (Solomon et al. 2007: 67). Typically global climate models operate on a
spatial scale of about 1.000 km with a maximal resolution of 300-500 km grid scale
(Giorgi et al 2001, Christensen et al. 2007). Therefore different regionalization
techniques exist that “use input data from AOGCMs to produce more detailed
regional information” with a spatial resolution up to 10 to 20 km grid scale (Giorgi et
al 2001: 588, cf. Solomon et al. 2007). The regionalized climate projections that are
used as evidence for the studied tourism destinations in the Austrian Alps derive from
a nested regional climate model (RCMs) that uses AOGCMs as input to model
climate projections. The REMO-UBA2-model is driven with the AOGCM
ECHAM4 and provides climate projections for Austria, Germany and Switzerland on
2 The acronym refers to the dataset that has been derived by means of the REgional MOdel,
developed by the Max Planck Institute on behalf of the German Federal Environmental Agency
(Umweltbundesamt – UBA).
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a spatial resolution with a grid scale up to 10km (Jacob & Podzun 1997, Jacob et al.
2008, Prettenthaler et al. 2009).
Coping with uncertainties
Despite “many advances in climate change projections in the last decade” (Solomon
et al. 2007: 66) uncertainties remain in producing regional climate information
(Giorgi et al 2001). The uncertainties are linked to the process downscaling evidences
from global climate models as well as to the complexity of local climate regimes. On
smaller scales “natural climate variability is relatively larger, making it harder to
distinguish changes expected due to external forcing” (IPCC 2007b: 10). Particularly
in mountain areas that have a strong topographical control over their local climate
pattern and at the same time are characterized by manifold local topographical
structures climate change information at a fine spatial resolution is often sufficient
(Solomon et al. 2007). This particularly holds true for local precipitation patterns
that show strong local variations due to their close topographical dependency (Auer
et al. 2005, Solomon et al. 2007). Additionally to the complexity of local climate
regimes on a global scale there still exist “some important climate processes that have
a significant effect on regional climates, but for which the climate change response is
still poorly known” (Solomon et al. 2007: 74). One example, relevant to the
European Alpine region is the NAO that represents an important natural forcing of
the Alpine temperature and precipitation patterns and involves long-term
fluctuations on a decadal scale (Beniston 2005, Raible et al. 2005, OECD 2007). As
the example of the NAO shows, uncertainties also derive from climate anomalies
acting on differing time scales, making it difficult to integrate evidences on natural
and anthropogenically induced variability. In general, uncertainty of climate
projections increase with the time horizon as the emission scenarios as the basic input
become “increasingly speculative” (IPCC 2000: 11).
The described uncertainties affect the explanatory power of the evidences on future
climate conditions, both on a global and a local scale that are presented in section
2.3. Coping with the inherent uncertainties of climate prospects has always been a
subject of IPCC assessments and represents an important task for today’s climate
research (Meehl et al. 2007). One approach to treat the future uncertainty is the
introduction of the scenario approach that accounts for the diversity of possible
MODEL PROJECTIONS
31
future, but at the same time restricts the full array of theoretical possibilities through
the consideration of plausibility aspects (IPCC 2000, Meehl et al. 2007). In addition
the remaining uncertainties are assessed and made transparent by the use of
uncertainty margins, presented along with the evidence (Christensen et al. 2007,
Meehl et al. 2007). In the IPCC uncertainties are quantified by the use of three
criteria, depending on the type of uncertainty: a g r e e m e n t among the researcher
community to assess the amount and quality of evidence; c o n f i d e n c e to assess the
correctness of underlying data, models or analyses; and l i k e l i h o o d to judge specific
outcomes like observations or model results (IPCC 2007a). These criteria are
reflected in the evidence on observed and projected climate trends that are presented
hereafter.
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2.3 Observed and projected climate trends
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global average sea level.
IPCC 2007a: 30
Past records and future projections of climatic conditions leave no doubts about the
fact that substantial shifts in global temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as
of other factors like wind patterns are under way (IPCC 2007a). With regard to the
drivers of change there exists a very high confidence that anthropogenic greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions have triggered most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures in the last decades and will continue to drive global warming in the
decades to come (ibid., Doherty et al. 2009). Starting from analyses of the global
climate, research has begun to increasingly explore regional and local trends of past
and future climate change (Abler et al. 2000, Christensen et al. 2007).
In this section, the current state of research on global and local climate change in
terms of past and future trends will be summarized in order to provide the natural
science-basis for the societal vulnerability to the impacts of these changes that will be
discussed later on. The climate in Austrian Alpine winter tourism destinations is
influenced by factors from a global to a local scale. In the following an overview will
be given about global and subsequently local climate patterns as well as how processes
on different scales interrelate. In each part, first the state of research on the past
Alpine climate, based on observational data will be presented, with a particular focus
in the Austrian region. Secondly the current state of research on future projections
about the Alpine climate, and the situation in Austria in particular will be
summarized. General emphasis is placed on temperature and precipitation patterns,
being the most decisive factors for the local snow conditions and hence for the
climatic business environment of the Alpine tourism industry.
OBSERVED AND PROJECTED CLIMATE TRENDS
2.3.1
33
Global observations and projections
Temperature
On the global scale climate observations revealed an increasing warming trend since
the 20th century (Trenberth et al. 2007). The year 1976 constitutes a particular time
marker (‘1976 divide’) “when global mean temperatures began a discernible upward
trend” (Trenberth et al. 2007: 240). In total the global mean surface air temperature
(SAT) has increased by about +0.74°C between 1906 and 2005, with a stronger
warming of +0.55°C starting from the 1970s until 2005 (ibid., figure 2.6).
Figure 2.6: Development of the global annual mean temperature relative
to the 1961-1990 average.
Linear trend fits to the last 25 (1981-2005, yellow), 50 (1956-2005, orange), 100
(1906-2005, blue) and 150 years (1856-2005, red) are shown (Source: Trenberth et al.
2007: 253)
With regard to seasons the warming trend was found to be “slightly greater in the
winter hemisphere” (ibid.: 252, cf. Raible et al. 2005). The analysis of long-term
changes in daily temperature extremes has revealed a decrease of cold extremes (very
cold days and nights) and an increase of warm extremes (very hot days and warm
nights, ibid., cf. section 2.1). Current projections of the SAT show a future increase
between +0.64°C and +0.69°C for the early 21st century (2011-2030) compared to
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Figure 2.7: Global warming projections for the 21 st century based on different
emission scenarios.
Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-1999) for the
scenarios A2, A1B and B1 (cf. table 2.1: 28), shown as continuations of the 20th century
simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages.
The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values.
The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range
assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios.(Source: IPCC 2007b: 14)
the 1980-1999 period and an increase between 1.3°C and 1.8°C by mid-century
(2046-2065, Meehl et al. 2007). SAT projections for the late 21 st century (20902099), more largely vary between +1.8°C and +4.0°C due to different assumptions
about future GHG emissions (ibid., figure 2.7).
The trend of increasing temperature extremes in summer (heat waves) is projected to
accelerate on a global scale, combined with an increasing interannual variability or
summer temperatures. Frost days, in contrast, are projected to decrease, including a
substantial decline in the frequency of cold air outbreaks in the northern hemisphere
winter (ibid., figure 2.8).
35
Figure 2.8: Change in temperature extremes corresponding to different emission
scenarios. Parts b) and d) represent changes in spatial patterns between two
20-year means (2080-2099 minus 1980-1999)
(Source: Meehl et al. 2007)
Precipitation
As regards global precipitation patterns observations show “that changes are occurring
in the amount, intensity, frequency and type of precipitation” (Trenberth et al.
2007: 262). In the course of the 20 th century along with the Americas and central
Asia northern Europe has become significantly wetter, with a decreasing likelihood of
precipitation falling as snow particular in the beginning and in the end of the snow
season due to rising temperatures (ibid.). In contrast, the Mediterranean has become
dryer, along with the north and south of Africa and southern Asia. With regard to
empirical evidence and model simulations suggest an increase of heavy precipitation
due to the warming climate, irrespective of the development in the total amount of
precipitation. Future projections of the precipitation patterns are fairly similar across
different emission scenarios, but show “substantial spatial and seasonal variations”
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(Meehl et al. 2007: 768). However, with regard to the tempered zones the models
project widespread decreases of summer precipitation in the mid-latitude, particular
in the Mediterranean. Overall climate zones, precipitation events are projected to
increase in their intensity, resulting in an increase of extreme precipitation (ibid.,
figure 2.9).
Figure 2.9: Changes in precipitation extremes corresponding to different emission scenarios. Parts b)
and d) represent changes in spatial patterns between two 20-year means (2080-2099
minus 1980-1999
(Source: Meehl et al. 2007)
Notwithstanding the influence of the global climate system temperature and
precipitation pattern and trends are subject to substantial regional and local
variations (Christensen et al. 2007, cf. figures 2.8 and 2.9). To get a picture about the
past, present and future climate of tourism destinations in the Austrian Alps it is
necessary to take regional and local impact factors of the local climates into account.
Within the last 15 years a series of research projects has been conducted to explore
the specific climatic conditions of the European Alps (inter alia Auer et al. 2001,
37
Beniston 2005, Beniston et al. 2007, Casty et al. 2005, Formayer et al. 2001, OECD
2007, Prettenthaler et al. 2009). More detailed observations and prospects could be
compiled by appreciating the climatic distinctiveness of mountainous areas as well as
differences in the regional integration into larger-scale continental and maritime air
circulation patterns.
2.3.2
Observations and projections for the Austrian Alps
The climate of the Austrian Alps is largely determined by large-scale atmospheric
pressure patterns, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the exposure
to maritime and continental air flows as well as of local topographical and
orographical characteristics (Beniston & Stephenson 2004, Beniston 2005, Raible et
al. 2005, OECD 2007, Prettenthaler et al. 2009). Beniston emphasizes “rapid and
systematic changes in climatic parameters, in particular temperature and
precipitation, over very short distances” as specificity of mountain climates (Beniston
2005: 1587). He further found the interannual variability in the Alpine climate
higher than the global average (ibid.). With regard to super-regional influences the
“European Alps act as a boundary between Mediterranean-type, Atlantic, and
continental climates” (ibid.: 1588). Figure 2.10 depicts how these climatic influences
Figure 2.10: Climatic regions in Austria based on patterns of strong precipitation
in winter season
(Source: adapted from Prettenthaler et al. 2009: 86, based on Seibert et al. 2006)
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divide Austria into three climatic regions. Beniston et al. have shown that the NAO is
strongly correlated to the Alpine climate, particular in higher elevations (Beniston et
al. 1997, Beniston 2005). Beniston & Stephenson additionally highlight linkages
between the NAO and climate and weather extremes in the Alpine area (Beniston &
Stephenson 2004).
Past observations
Observational data on past temperature trends in the European Alps shows a
“transition from cold conditions prior to 1900 to the present day warmth during the
20th century and beyond” (OECD 2007: 19). Beginning in the end of the 19 th
century, interrupted by a mid 20 th century cooling due to an increased atmospheric
aerosole concentration related to air polution that resulted in a dimming effect of the
solar radiation, the warming trend again accelerated in the 1990s (Beniston &
Stephenson 2004, Raible et al. 2005, Huss et al. 2009). It has been shown that the
unprecedented current upward trend is particularly strong in the Alpine region,
Figure 2.11: Smoothed (30y) annual mean air temperature for low and
high (Alpine) elevations in Austria
Data source: Auer et al. 2001. Analogue time series exist for the Swiss Alps (Beniston
2005). The peak around the year 1800 has been found to be disproportionate due to a
statistical calculation error (personal communication Herbert Formayer, BOKU
University Vienna 2009).
39
representing “roughly a three-fold amplification of the global signal” (Beniston
2005: 1592, figure 2.11).
Indications exist that particularly warming trends in the winter minimum
temperature have accelerated in the last decade (Beniston & Stephenson 2004). In
total the winter minimum temperature in the Alpine region increased by up to +2°C
in the 20th century with a more modest increase in maximum temperatures (OECD
2007). In their study on the Swiss Alps Beniston & Stevenson found that the
warming trends are stronger in high-altitude and in cold winter season ( Beniston &
Stephenson 2004: 4). In Austria mean temperature has increased by +1.8°C since end
of the 19th century, reflecting a homogeneously shift in all parts of the country, yet
being slightly more pronounced in high altitudes (Auer et al. 2001, Formayer et al.
2001, figure 2.11, table 2.1). This warming trend resulted in a general as well as
strong retreat of Austrian glaciers (Formayer et al. 2001: 16).
Table 2.2: Linear trends of climate variables in four Austrian sub-regions for summer (S – months 4 to 9,
years 1910-1999) and winter season (W – months 10 to 3, years 1890-2000)
Source: Auer et al. 2001: 142f. For reasons of legibility negative trends have been underscored.
Low
elevation
High
elevation
S
S
W
W
West
S
East
W
S
North
W
S
W
South
S
W
Mean
temperature 1.32 1.15 1.37 1.17 1.15 1.33 1.44 1.08 1.37 1.15 1.31 1.06
[°C/100y]
Mean daily max.
temperature 1.04 1.21 1.24 1.35 0.29 1.34 1.49 1.15 1.43 1.07 0.93 1.29
[°C/100y]
Mean daily min.
temperature 1.30 1.26 1.17 1.17 1.41 1.45 1.50 1.33 1.12 1.29 1.16 1.00
[°C/100y]
Precipitation
totals -9.1
[%/100y]
-1.8
--
--
-2.7
10.5 -19.0 -10.3 -8.4
9.2
-6.2 -16.7
In terms of precipitation magnitude no pronounced trend could be identified for the
Alpine region on the whole, yet a trend for increased precipitation intensities has
been observed (Formayer et al. 2001, Beniston 2005, OECD 2007). However, the
warming trend resulted in a general decline in snow cover in the 1980s and 90s
(OECD 2007). In Austria a reduction of the total precipitation has been observed in
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the eastern parts, in contrast to an increase in the western parts of the Alps ( Auer et
al. 2001, Formayer et al. 2001, table 2.1). In this respect a trend of increasing
amounts of fresh snow has been found for western Austria and the central Alps
(Formayer et al. 2001). In contrast to the Alpine region as a whole no homogeneous
trend with regard to precipitation extremes could be identified for Austria (ibid.).
Future projections
In terms of the future development of the Alpine climate Beniston & Stephenson
suggest that “many significant impacts of climate change are likely to come from
shifts in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events” (Beniston &
Stephenson 2004: 8). Corresponding to what has been stated regarding the impact
factors of the past climate conditions, the future climate of the Austrian Alps is
considered to be subject to global as well as regional and local determinants.
It has been described that the past Alpine climate is supposed to be strongly
determined by the NAO. Yet no clear agreement exists with regard of the NAO’s
impact on future climate change. Given the periodical variations of the NAO that
Figure 2.12: Summer (JJA) temperature trends for Austria in comparison to the 1971-2000 reference
period
(Source: Prettenthaler et al. 2009: 41)
41
could be observed in the past Formayer et al. suggest that the NAO could soon shift
from the current positive to a negative phase, resulting in lower temperatures and
higher precipitation in the Alpine area (Formayer et al. 2001). However, the question
has been addressed whether the NAO itself could be subject to anthropogenic
influences (Raible et al. 2005, OECD 2007). As Raible et al. point out future
projections, based on GCMs, would show indeed a systematic shift in the center of
action of the NAO (Raible et al. 2005). Formayer et al. suggest that in case the NAO
would not change its pattern until the beginning of the 2010s, one could assume an
anthropogenic influence on the NAO which would have major consequence for the
regional weather and climate patterns in Europe (Formayer et al. 2001). A second
discussion addresses the future relation between the NAO and the Alpine climate.
Regarding the general impact of the NAO on the Alpine climate analyses of past
climates in the last 500 years have revealed that even though much of the observed
warming trends in the 20th century is correlated with the NAO, this link has not
always been apparent within the previous centuries (OECD 2007). The assumption
that the Alpine climate might decouple from the NAO is supported by the fact that
other high elevation sites, such as the Himalayas that are not subject to the NAO
Figure 2.13: Winter (DJF) temperature trends for Austria in comparison to the 1971-2000 reference
period
(Source: Prettenthaler et al. 2009: 40)
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influence show the similar recent trend of warming (ibid.)3.
Consistent with observed trends regional climate models (RCM) have projected
temperatures to increase stronger in higher elevations of the Alpine region (OECD
2007). The projection, based on the A2 scenario, suggests a mean temperature
increase of +3°C in winter and +4°C in summer season for the 2071-2100 period
compared to the 1961-1990 control period (Raible et al. 2005). For Austria the
published RCM projections that use different reference periods, show a warming
trend of +1.6° to +2.7°C in winter and +0.6° to +1.7°C in summer respectively until
the 2036-2065 period, compared to the 1971-2000 control period, depending on the
emission scenario (Prettenthaler et al. 2009, figures 2.13 and 2.12). The ongoing
warming trend is considered to further reduce the spatial and temporal extent of
snow cover in lower altitudes in Austria (Formayer et al. 2001). With respect to the
near future, until 2025, regional projections for the Austrian Alps do not yield
reliable results so far due to implausible GCM signals for the proximate decades that
result from the current models underestimating increased radiative forcing in
comparison to long-term climate fluctuations (Prettenthaler et al. 2009, also H.
Kromp-Kolb, Boku University Vienna; personal communication 2009, cf. Solomon
et al. 2007).
Projections of the precipitation in the Alpine region suggest a small average increase
in winter and small average decrease over summer with interannual variability being
unchanged in winter, but increasing in summer (Raible et al. 2005: 23). Other
authors even expect a significant reduction of precipitation for the summer season
(Haeberli & Beniston 1998, OECD 2007). The projected ongoing warming trend is
expected to increase the proportion of precipitation to fall as rain as well as resulting
in an earlier snow-melt in spring (ibid.). As a consequence “significant reductions in
snow pack and glacier mass within decades” are expected, combined with a lift of the
lower limits of permafrost occurrence by several hundred meters (ibid.: 21f.). For
Austria so far no valid results for future precipitation patterns could be derived from
RCM analyses for the following decades (Prettenthaler et al. 2009).
3 End of the year 2009 inaccuracies have been disclosed with respect to trends of climate impacts in
the Himalayan region. The imprecise calculations, however, relate to projected trends, not to
observed trends. Furthermore, the IPCC in a recently published statement hold that the identified
errors refer to the rate of change, not the trend itself and reaffirm their findings on glacier retreats
in the Himalayan region (IPCC 2010).
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ALPINE WINTER
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2.4 Economic impacts of climate change on the Alpine
This chapter represents the transition between the natural science dimension of this
thesis, focusing on physical climate phenomena, and the social science dimension,
illuminating the societal implications of these phenomena as well as strategies to
respond to them. The chapter draws on the vulnerability concept, introduced earlier
(cf. chapter 1.1) and is based on the notion that the vulnerability of destinations and
firms in the Alpine winter tourism industry is constituted by both naturalclimatological and socio-economical factors. The mainly natural scientific concepts
and findings on the phenomena tied to climate variability and climate trends that
have been presented so far in chapter 2 are transferred to the socio-economic industry
characteristics. The following section on the economic sensitivity of the Alpine
tourism industry to climate change provides the interface for linking the physical
impacts (cf. chapter 2.3) to the socio-economic impacts of climate change in the
Alpine winter tourism industry.
2.4.1
Economic sensitivity of the Alpine winter tourism industry
Besides its socio-cultural importance, winter sport tourism foremost provides a
significant contribution to the economic well-being of many Alpine communities
(OECD 2007, Wolfsegger et al. 2008). Since the 1970s the economic dependency of
Alpine countries on the winter tourism sector has been increasing (OECD 2007).
Alpine tourism provides 10-12% of the jobs in these Alpine regions (ibid.). In Austria
after WW II tourism has superseded agriculture as main economical income source
in the Alpine area (Breiling 1993, Arbesser et al. 2008). As a result national and local
economies became increasingly sensitive towards variations in revenues from the
winter tourism industry.
In Austria the tourism sector plays a major role for the local and national value
creation, with a projected share of 8.2% of the direct and indirect gross-domestic
product (GDP) in 2009 referring to the national statistical information service (Östat
2009, Ehmer & Heymann 2008 even calculated a total share of 15% of the GDP).
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Compared to other countries in Europe, Austria holds the highest share of tourist
arrivals per capita (Östat 2009b). The economical importance of the Austrian winter
tourism sector in comparison to summer tourism has been steadily growing in recent
decades, in that the share of winter tourism in total overnight stays has increased
from 30% in 1974 to 40% in 1985 and has crossed the 50% mark in 2005 (Östat
2009b). In total, overnight stays in the winter season have doubled between 1975
and 2007 (Arbesser et al. 2008). Leveraged by economic multiplier effects on
associated industries (commerce, transport) and the fact that average tourist spending
is considerably higher in winter season compared to summer season (Arbesser et al.
2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008) in Austria’s Alpine tourism industry the winter sport
sector represents the most important source of income (ÖHV 2008). In total the
Alpine winter tourism sector contributes between little less than 4.1% and 4.5% of
the GDP, depending on the data sources (Arbesser et al. 2008, OECD 2007).
The attractiveness of Alpine ski resorts is shaped above all by their specific regional
climate. The local climate represents a principle resource for tourism and constitutes
a part of the tourism products (Gómez Martín 2005, de Freitas et al. 2008, Simpson
et al. 2008). Local climate and weather patterns shape the attractiveness of specific
geographical locations through its influence on the scenery, the tourists’ comforts and
by providing the basis for specific activities like skiing in winter (Gómez Martín
2005, Yu et al. 2009, Endler et al. 2010)4. Simpson et al. argue that “[w]ith its close
connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a
highly climate-sensitive economic sector similar to agriculture, insurance, energy, and
transportation” (Simpson et al. 2008: 12). That way winter sport related tourism
destinations depend directly on the local climatic resources (Gómez Martín 2005)
with snow cover holding a crucial role for the financial success (Koenig & Abegg
1997, Uhlmann et al. 2009).
Given the snow dependency of the Alpine winter tourism industry as well as the
inherent variability of the local climates, Elsasser & Bürki argue that the economic
well-being of the local winter tourism business is determined by the frequency of
winter seasons with good and bad snow conditions (Elsasser & Bürki 2002). With
regard to snow cover the snow-reliability of Alpine winter tourism destinations
4 Therefore even indices assessing the quality of the local climate for tourism have been developed
and discussed against the context of global climate change (de Freitas et al. 2008, Yu et al. 2009)
TOURISM INDUSTRY
45
represents a key characteristic of ski tourism products that depend on sufficient
amounts of snow as a prerequisite for profitable ski tourism (ibid.). For the context of
the European Alps the snow reliability has been defined by Elsasser & Bürki as
follows, a definition that has been widely adopted:
...a ski resort can be considered snow-reliable if, in 7 out of 10 winters, a sufficient snow
covering of at least 30 to 50cm is available for ski sport on at least 100d between December
1 and April 15.
Elsasser & Bürki 2002: 253
Despite its broad use the above defined concept of snow reliability does not reflect all
dimensions of the resource ‘snow’ for the Alpine winter tourism industry. Bürki
(2000) emphasises that the parameter values in the definition have been specified
with respect to a competitive operation of large cable car companies. Therefore the
above formulated 100-day-rule is particularly directed towards larger ski resorts with
continuous operations in winter season and less suitable for smaller, weekend or daytripper resorts.
Furthermore it has been noted that the above defined concept of snow reliability
should not only be based on assumptions of natural snow conditions, as it had been
originally suggested, but also involve the possibilities of technical snowmaking
(Steiger & Mayer 2008, Prettenthaler et al. 2009). On the one hand the demand for
a ‘technical snow reliability’ (Steiger & Mayer 2008) again implies the dependency on
specific climatic conditions that allow for technical snowmaking (ibid., Prettenthaler
et al. 2009). On the other hand it also calls for the consideration of adaptive
responses to variable climatic conditions in the assessment of the economic sensitivity
to climate change. With regard to the economic sensitivity of the Alpine winter
tourism industry to climate change snowmaking represents a dominant strategy for
reducing the business’ dependency from local climatic conditions (Steiger & Mayer
2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008) – “in Austria, for example, 59% of the ski area is
covered by snowmaking facilities” (Steiger & Mayer 2008: 292). Against the
background of an extensive introduction of snowmaking in the Alpine region since
the mid of the 1980s (Teich et al. 2007) the a d a p t n e s s of the winter tourism
business that means the degree of adaptive measures, such as snowmaking that have
been implemented to cope with variable climatic conditions, therefore is a decisive
dimension of the business’ climate sensitivity (the subject of adaptness and adaptive
responses to climate change will be addressed more in detail in chapter 3). With
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respect of tourism firm’s adaptness Elsasser & Bürki (2002) stress the importance of
the business capabilities to withstand a certain number of snow-deficient winters in
order to secure the maintenance of the business. Addressing the subject of
consecutive snow deficient winter seasons Dawson et al. point out that a “ski area
may rebound financially after experiencing one poor snow season amongst a series of
average or above average seasons. However, it is much more difficult to financially
recover after experiencing 2 or 3 poor seasons consecutively” (Dawson et al. 2009).
In this context the precarious economic conditions that have been revealed by
Arbesser et al. for small, family-managed businesses in local Alpine winter tourism
economies (above average level of dept and low level of proprietary financial capital)
increase the vulnerability of these businesses (cf. Arbesser et al. 2008). Experiences of
past snow deficient winters in Switzerland show that particularly smaller businesses
have been negatively affected by detrimental snow conditions (Elsasser & Bürki
2002). Besides the financial reserves of businesses the increasing capital intensity of
ski tourism within the last decades – not least due to substantial investments into
snowmaking capacities – represents a further co-driver to the climate sensitivity of the
winter tourism industry as it requires businesses to increase revenues in order to
service debts (Elsasser & Bürki 2002). In contrast to larger businesses that can profit
from economic scaling effects smaller businesses run in danger of an economic
downward spiral of lacking investments into the quality of their tourism products
and insufficient revenue. This in turn reduces their financial reserves and increases
their economic sensitivity towards snow deficient winters (cf. Arbesser et al. 2008).
Looking at different business sectors of the Alpine tourism industry Elsasser &
Bürki’s study suggests that the accommodation sector is less climate sensitive
compared to cable car companies: tourists tend to book their accommodation at least
some time in advance and thus are not able to reduce their spending in case of
shorter-term snow retreats in the same magnitude as in the case of cable car tickets
(Elsasser & Bürki 2002). Nevertheless through multiplier-effects of the cable car
business on associated businesses (sport shops, ski schools, gastronomy,
accommodation) a redistribution of the detrimental economic impacts within the
local business networks can be assumed (Arbesser et al. 2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008).
Summing up, given the close relationship of tourism and local climatic patterns,
countries with high economic dependency on tourism are particularly vulnerable
TOURISM INDUSTRY
47
towards climate change (Ehmer & Heymann 2008). In Austria, where the tourism
sector plays an important economical role, winter tourism is the most climate
sensitive industry – even more than agricultural sector (Breiling 1993). A recent
study of the Austrian Hotelier Association (ÖHV) found that more than 65% of the
Austrian winter tourism communities can be characterized as being very or fairly
economically sensitive towards climate change (ÖHV 2008).
2.4.2
Observed and projected climate impacts on the Alpine
Given the substantial economic sensitivity of the Alpine winter tourism industry
weather and climate extremes entail economical impacts for the business, most of
them albeit not all of detrimental nature. Climate impacts on the Alpine winter
tourism industry do occur in terms of single extreme events that are beyond the
values of accustomed parameters and in terms of the frequency of extreme events over
a period of time that constitute statistical trends (Breiling & Charamza 1999,
cf. Schneider et al. 2001). Increasing attempts have been made in recent years to
assess their economic implications. Model based approaches and simulations
contribute through analyses of different impact scenarios for a set or potential future
sensitivities and exposures towards climate variability and climate change. As model
based approaches are limited in the number of included factors and interrelations,
analogue approaches, based on actual experiences with earlier snow deficient winters
are utilized to complement the estimates with the real-world impacts of past extreme
climate events (Koenig & Abegg 1997, Dawson et al. 2009).
Physical impacts of climate change on Alpine winter tourism destinations
It has been explained how tourism products of Alpine winter sport destinations are
based on two principle attractions: snow cover that allows for practiing winter sport
activities like downhill skiing, cross-country skiing or snow hiking and the pristine
mountain landscape that shape the surrounding aesthetics of these activities
(Beniston 2003, Gómez Martín 2005, Yu et al. 2009, Endler et al. 2010). In both
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aspects the local snow conditions are the key characteristic of the economic success of
winter tourism destinations.
Even though the natural snow cover does not solely depend on the local temperature
patterns, warming has been found to have large detrimental effects on the snow cover
(Breiling & Charamza 1999, Uhlmann et al. 2009). Hence the warming trend, being
particularly pronounced in the Alpine region (OECD 2007, cf. section 2.3), is
expected to have a considerable effect on the whole Alpine are, across all altitudes
(Koenig & Abegg 1997, Breiling & Charamza 1999, Uhlmann et al. 2009).
However, snow cover at lower altitudes was found to be “much more sensitive to even
a small change in temperature” (ibid.: 1052). Moreover, simulations of snow cover in
the Swiss Alps under warming conditions suggest that ”the projected increase in
precipitation in winter over the Alps shown by the majority of RCMs ... will not
compensate for the projected increase in temperature, even in higher resorts”
(ibid.: 1054). As a consequence an increasing number of winters with poor snow
conditions due to climate change are to be expected (Elsasser & Bürki 2002).
Besides a general reduction in snow depths, the warming trends in the Alpine region
is also projected to result in a reduction of the winter season lengths (Koenig &
Abegg 1997, Ehmer & Heymann 2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008). For Austria
Wolfsegger et al. point out that “[e]ven the most conservative scenario – warming of
0.9°C by 2020 – is projected to reduce natural snow cover by approximately four
weeks at low elevations” (Wolfsegger et al. 2008). They assume the primary effects of
reduction of natural snow cover in the beginning and end of winter season, thus the
time period with economically important holidays (Christmas, Eastern, ibid.).
Table 2.3: Present and future natural snow-reliability of ski areas in the European Alps on a national level
(Source: adapted from OECD 2007: 32)
Country
Number of ski
areas
Snow-reliable
under current
conditions
+1°C
+2°C
+4°C
Austria
228
199
87%
153
67%
115
50%
47
21%
France
148
143
97%
123
83%
96
65%
55
37%
Germany
39
27
69%
11
28%
5
13%
1
3%
Italy
87
81
93%
71
82%
59
68%
21
24%
Switzerland
164
159
97%
142
87%
129
79%
78
48%
Total
666
609
91%
500
75%
404
61%
202
30%
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Studies on the natural snow reliability of the Alpine region and Austria in particular
provide projections about changes in the mean snow conditions across several years
(cf. definition on page 45). At present the altitudes where natural snow reliability can
be assumed in Austria varies between 1.200m in western Austria and 1.050m in
Eastern Austria (OECD 2007, with regard to the federal state of Carinthia the report
assumes that “the ‘positive’ effect of continentality is offset by the ‘negative’ effect of
the southern latitude”, ibid.: 31). Given the observed and projected warming trend,
the natural snow reliability is projected to further decrease in the future, with
variations across the Alps due to different climatic regions and altitudes (Koenig &
Abegg 1997, Elsasser & Bürki 2002, OECD 2007): “With a 300m rise (plus 2°C by
2050s) in line of natural snow-reliability, the number of naturally snow-reliable ski
areas would drop to between 8% (Niederösterreich / Lower Austria) and 62%
(Salzburg) of the present level, indicating a strong difference between the most and
least sensitive regions in Austria” (ibid.: 34, cf. figure 2.14 and table 2.3). This
Figure 2.14: Number of natural snow reliable ski areas in Austria and Germany (Bavaria) under
present and future climate conditions
(Source: OECD 2007: 112)
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projection corresponds to a rise in the line of natural snow-reliability by 150m per
1°C warming (ibid.).
Even though snow is the key parameter of local climate conditions for winter
tourism, Linnenluecke et al. hold that “climate change impacts are not limited to
snow conditions, but also to an increased retreat of glaciers, and more extreme events
such as landslides as a result of a rising elevation, and therefore, melting permafrost.
Infrastructure build on permafrost soil, such as cableway stations, lift masts and other
buildings, will become unstable” (Linnenluecke et al. 2008: 25). Table 2.4 provides
an overview about these additional impacts of climate change on Alpine tourism.
Table 2.4.: Impacts of climate change on the Alpine tourism sector
(Source: adapted from Bürki et al. 2003, Müller 2007)
Environmental impacts
Impacts on Alpine tourism
Retreating glaciers
Lost of mountain aesthetic, problems for ski slopes on glaciers in
winter and summer
Melting permafrost
Vulnerability for landslides, increasing danger for hiking and
climbing due to increasing rockfall, infrastructure like mountain
cable car stations becomes unstable
Changing weather conditions
More extreme events
Shift mountain flora and fauna
More precipitation, higher fog level
Lost of mountain aesthetic, increasing risks of natural hazards,
troubles for snowmaking facilities due to sustaining drought
Decreasing protection by mountain forests, lost of mountain
aesthetic
Negative economic impacts of climate change
The reduction of season lengths, snow cover, and natural snow reliability has
economical implications, both on the income and the cost side. Through multiplier
effects the resulting revenue losses of direct and indirect impacts of climate change
apply to all business branches of the local tourism economy: cable car operator, ski
rentals and lessons, gastronomy, and accommodation (Wolfsegger et al. 2008,
Dawson et al. 2009). For Austria, Breiling & Charamza have revealed a close
relationship between the temperature variations in the past decades and the economic
development of the Austrian winter tourism industry (Breiling & Charamza 1999).
Experiences with past snow deficient winters provide analogies about potential
economic impacts resulting from an ongoing warming trend.
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With regard to the income of winter tourism businesses in the context of climate and
weather extremes Dawson et al.’s study on the winter tourism sector in the US
indicted substantial losses in visitation rates (-11% compared to the long-year mean)
on account of a warm and shortened ski season (-5 days, +2.5°C above long year
winter temperature mean, Dawson et al. 2009). Similarly Koenig & Abegg observed
a sharp drop of overnight stays (up to -12% compared to the preceding period)
during a snow deficient winter season in Switzerland (Koenig & Abegg 1997). Based
on these past experiences in tourism destinations that can be expected to feature a
certain degree of adaptness to physical climate impacts, analogies can be drawn with
respect to adaptive responses of tourists to a future warming trend and subsequent
reductions in returns (cf. Dawson et al. 2009). For Austria shifts in tourism flows
either to more snow-reliable destinations or to non-snow related activities can be
expected for the future (Ehmer & Heymann 2008, cf. Scott et al. 2008). In addition
to adaptive responses of tourists to changing climatic conditions, climate responses of
tourists can be expected with respect of current and future climate change mitigation
policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions and increase the economic costs of
tourism mobility (e.g., EC 2007, cf. Simpson et al. 2008).
Not only is the income of Alpine winter tourism businesses expected to be
increasingly affected by the trends in climate means and climate extremes – also the
cost side of the business accounts are likely to contribute to the economic burdens of
climate trends. With artificial snowmaking, being the most applied and prominent
measure to increase the snow-reliability of ski resorts the impacts of climate trends
first of all are impacts on snowmaking requirements in the resorts (Hamilton et al.
2007, Arbesser et al. 2008, Scott et al. 2008). The analysis of the impacts of past
winter warm spells in US ski resorts indicate a salient increase of snowmaking costs
due to increased snowmaking hours – with a local winter temperature +2.5°C above
long year winter temperature mean, increasing the snowmaking hours by +75% and
the snowmaking costs by +37% (Dawson et al. 2009). Future warming trends are
supposed to further raise the costs of snowmaking because of investments into better
snowmaking technology, able to produce snow under warmer environmental
conditions, resulting in greater consumption rates of energy and water (Scott et al.
2008, cf. table 2.5).
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Table 2.5: Average costs and resource consumption of snowmaking
(Source: based on Hahn 2004)
Investment into snowmaking infrastructure
650.000€ per slope km
Maintenance
33.000€ per slope km and year
Provision of base layer snowmaking (30cm)
in the beginning of the winter season
not less than 1.000m³ water per slope hectare
Provision of overall snow cover, including
additional snow supply during the season
4.000m³ water per slope hectare, 25.000 kWh
energy per slope hectare (corresponds to 20fold
yearly water and 5.5fold yearly energy demand of
a 4 persons household)
Simpson et al. list further costs for the coming up to the tourism industry through
extreme events resulting from the trends in extreme events and and climate means:
“additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher operating costs (e.g.
insurance, backup ... systems,...), and business interruptions” (Simpson et al.
2008: 12f.). For Austria Breiling projects growing costs for natural hazard prevention
and management resulting from climate and weather extremes (Breiling 1993).
In addition to the economic impacts of climate trends that can be estimated based on
past experiences, further indirect impacts can be assumed against the background of
broader societal responses to changing climatic conditions: climate change as a risk to
future economic well-being, loss of wealth available to consumers might also lead to
negative implications for the future economic success in the tourism industry
(Breiling 1993, Simpson et al. 2008). Given the complex nature of the interactions
that exist between climatic conditions and the societies the assessment of the broader
feedback circles of societal impact are still characterized by a high degree of
uncertainty with regard to character and magnitude of impacts (Schneider et al.
2001, Simpson et al. 2008).
Positive economic impacts of climate change
Besides the revenue losses of tourism businesses on account of shifting patterns of
extreme events and climate means, climate change is also projected to result in new
business opportunities (Schneider et al. 2001). For the Austrian Alpine tourism
industry rising summer temperature are expected to increase the attractiveness of
summer mountain tourism (e.g. mountaineering and hiking), particularly in relation
to an increase of hot spells in the Mediterranean (Ehmer & Heymann 2008, Haas et
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al. 2008), However, even though such new opportunities are supposed to partially
offset the negative economic impacts (Beniston 2003), in sum the Austrian tourism
industry is expected to be rather among the net losers of climate change (Ehmer &
Heymann 2008).
Regional exposure factors
Experiences with past climate extremes as well as simulations of future impacts on the
Alpine winter tourism industry reveal that the economic impacts of climate change
are shaped by location specific characteristics such as the destinations’ altitudes and
the applied business models. These characteristics represent regional exposure factors
in the context of global climate trends (cf. Füssel 2007, Haas et al. 2008).
Given the close relation between altitude and temperature patterns of a location
(cf. section 2.3), the projected warming trends above all are to affect medium and
low-lying destinations of Alpine winter tourism (Breiling 1993, OECD 2007, Haas
et al. 2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008, Uhlmann et al. 2009). Past experiences with
warm winters in the Alpine region depict particular negative economic impacts on ski
resorts at lower altitudes and a corresponding gain on higher glacier resorts (Koenig
& Abegg 1997, Elsasser & Bürki 2002). For Austria Wolfsegger et al. suggest that
“[e]ven the most conservative scenario – warming of 0.9°C by 2020 – is projected to
reduce natural snow cover by approximately four weeks at low elevations”
(Wolfsegger et al. 2008: 14). This projection of future snow availability at low
altitudes corresponds to simulations of the natural snow cover for the Swiss Alps
under a climatic warming trend (Uhlmann et al. 2009). According to Breiling future
warming will result in a strong reduction of the possibility to do winter sports below
1.600m in Austria (Breiling 1993). In comparison to the overall situation in the
European Alps, no large differences are expected for the Austrian Alps as “the negative
effect of the relatively low altitude ... is not offset by the colder, more continental
climate in Austria.” (OECD 2007: 34). As a consequence it seems very likely that
Alpine winter sport tourism will concentrate in the snow-reliable, high-altitude
resorts above 2.000m whereas “[s]ki resorts at lower altitudes will withdraw from the
market sooner or later because of the lack of snow” (Elsasser & Bürki 2002: 254,
Simpson et al. 2008).
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Experiences of past snow deficient winters show that the different business models
that are applied in the winter-sport tourism industry (size, diversification, access to
resources, ownership structures) have an influence on the magnitude of the economic
impact of such events (Elsasser & Bürki 2002, Dawson et al. 2009). Particularly
smaller firms and the smaller resorts are negatively affected due to limitations in their
resource stocks, alternative offers and technological capabilities for snowmaking
(Dawson et al. 2009).
Estimates for the Austrian winter tourism economy under the conditions
future warming
In summing up the section on the observed and projected climate impacts on the
winter-sport related tourism industry concrete estimates for the future economical
development of the Austrian winter tourism industry, under an continuing warming
trend are presented. They express the currently strong economic sensitivity of
Austrian tourism to differing degrees. Given the regional exposure factors that have
been addresses, the projected economic implications of the warming trend is also
likely to alter the competitive conditions within the Austrian tourism economy.
Different, in part deviating estimates for the future climate impacts on the Austrian
winter tourism industry do currently exist. Arbesser et al. present a rather
conservative estimate for the Austrian economy based on a reduction of overnight
stays for two warming scenarios (+2°C and +4°C in annual mean temperature,
Arbesser et al. 2008). According to their estimates the detrimental effects on the
whole national economy would be relatively low with a reduction of GDP by -0.2%
(+2°C scenario) and -0.4% respectively (+4°C scenario). However, they highlight
large regional variations in economical impacts of the warming scenarios. In a federal
state like Tyrol with a high economic dependency the economic impact could add up
to -2.7% of GDP and -5.7% respectively (Arbesser et al. 2008). In contrast to
Arbesser et al.’s estimate Breiling (1993) and Breiling & Charamza (1999) have
arrived at more drastic projections for the Austrian winter tourism industry. Breiling
projects that an increase in temperature of 3°C linked to altered precipitation patterns
and an increase of hazardous events could put an end to the winter tourism sector
(Breiling 1993). A relative smooth warming of +0.75°C could result in a decrease of
winter tourism revenues by around 10% in average, though the economic impacts
TOURISM INDUSTRY
55
could be worse in destinations stronger economical dependent or in unfavorable
geographical location. As a consequence Breiling projects a direct loss of the Austrian
GDP -0.5% per 1°C warming on account of losses in the winter tourism industry
(indirect losses -1 to -2%, given the economic interdependencies to other industries,
ibid.). This exceeds Arbesser et al.’s estimate by the factor of four. Breiling &
Charamza calculated that at a warming of +2°C, even though it would not impede
the occurrence of good winter seasons, yet the frequency of bad seasons would cross a
critical threshold for many destinations. Analyzing past responses of the Austrian
winter tourism industry and reflecting on the future implications, they state that
“[j]ust 0.8°C warming necessitated strong adaptation and the impact of 2°C warming
could leave only a few locations suitable for winter tourism and skiing restricted to
high altitudes” (Breiling & Charamza 1999: 12). As a result climate change could
slow down or terminate the 40 years lasting period of economic growth of the
Austrian winter tourism industry (Breiling 1993).
The local and regional disparities in the exposure to climate impacts are considered to
trigger structural change in the Alpine tourism industry (Breiling 1993, Elsasser &
Bürki 2002, Simpson et al. 2008). Bigger businesses and resorts at higher altitudes
are expected to benefit, at least in the shorter-term, whereas smaller businesses and
resorts at lower altitudes are trapped within an economic downward spiral of
increasing depths and reduced quality of tourism products, accelerating the ruinous
competition between ski resorts (Breiling 1993, Koenig & Abegg 1997, Breiling &
Charamza 1999, Elsasser & Bürki 2002).
3. Business responses to climate
impacts in the Alpine winter
tourism industry
Chapter Contents
3.1 Role of environmental dynamics from the perspective of organization
and management theory.................................................................62
3.1.1 Notion and relevance of the environment in organization theory........................62
3.1.2 Organizational implications of environmental dynamics......................................64
3.1.3 Organizational strategies to maintain functioning within a dynamic environment
.............................................................................................................................65
Adaptness strategy – increasing productivity and efficiency in stable environments................66
Innovation strategy – coping with long-term environmental change....................................67
Resilience strategy – coping with short-term environmental change.....................................67
3.2 Environmental change in the Alpine winter tourism industry – need
to respond......................................................................................69
3.2.1 External environment of organizations in the tourism industry...........................69
3.2.2 The tourism business under conditions of climate change...................................71
Considerations on the novelty of climate change.................................................................71
Considerations on the urgency of climate responses..............................................................74
3.3 Climate response strategies and measures in the Alpine winter
tourism industry............................................................................76
3.3.1 Strategies and measures to respond to long-term impacts.....................................77
3.3.2 Strategies and measures to respond to short-term crises.......................................80
3.3.3 Integrative view on the organizational management of responses to short-term and
long-term impacts of climate change...................................................................82
58
CHAPTER 3. BUSINESS RESPONSES TO CLIMATE IMPACTS IN THE ALPINE
WINTER TOURISM INDUSTRY
3.4 Adaptness of the Alpine winter tourism industry towards impacts of
climate change...............................................................................85
3.4.1 Climate responses: present state of implementation.............................................85
3.4.2 Future feasibility of climate responses...................................................................88
3.5 Capacity of Alpine winter tourism businesses to engage in climate
responses........................................................................................90
3.5.1 Concepts and findings on the capacity of businesses to respond to climate impacts
.............................................................................................................................92
Recognition of the need to respond.....................................................................................92
Incentive to respond.........................................................................................................93
Ability to respond.............................................................................................................93
3.5.2 Concepts and findings in organization and management theory on the
organizational capacity to respond to environmental change...............................94
3.5.3 Synthesis: Determinants of the organizational capacity of response.....................98
3.5.4 Specific characteristics of organizational planning in small firms in the Alpine
winter tourism industry.......................................................................................99
BUSINESS RESPONSES TO CLIMATE IMPACTS IN THE ALPINE WINTER
TOURISM INDUSTRY
59
C
limate responses, in a broad sense, refer to activities that are performed in
an anticipatory or a reactive manner to cope with the detrimental
consequences of climate change or to make use of the benefits that arise
from climate change (Smit & Wandel 2006, Adger et al. 2007). Being activities that
are planned and performed by individual persons, groups of people of organizations,
climate responses are social phenomena. Unlike the climate trends and the related
macroeconomic impacts that have been subject to the previous chapter, the
understanding of climate responses eludes a mere conception by naturalclimatological science or economic statistics (Rayner & Malone 1998). They call for
an additional perspective that integrates the understanding of the social conditions
under which climate responses occur.
Climate responses can be pursued by different entities of society, such as specific
institutions, individuals or governments (Simpson et al. 2008). In this thesis the
specific social conditions of firms in the Alpine winter tourism industry are of interest
as well as the implications of these conditions for business responses to climate
change. Therefore, the individual business organizations are the social entities in the
center of interest. Berkhout et al. emphasize the relevance of this focus for the
understanding of climate responses by arguing that “[o]rganizations, such as business
firms, are the primary socio-economic units within which processes of adaptation will
take place” (Berkhout et al. 2006: 136). This chapter draws on the research field of
organization theory and, to a lower degree, on business management theory in order
to provide the theoretical and conceptual frameworks that help to understand (i) the
relationship between tourism firms and their surrounding climatic conditions from
an organizational perspective as well as (ii) the internal organizational processes that
facilitate climate responses.
O r g a n i z a t i o n t h e o r y, in a very general sense, “is a collection of general
propositions about organizations” (Starbuck 2003: 143). Given the breadth of the
term ‘organization’ the following complementing definitions outline different
characteristics on which organization theory focusses:
An organisation is thought of as a system, at a higher level than the individuals, having
properties of its own and acting back on the individuals as a cause of their actions
Stacey 2007: 235
60
Organizations are social entities that are goal directed, are designed as deliberately
structured and coordinated activity systems and are linked to the external environment.
Daft 2000: 12
As the basic unit of the organization is the role rather than the person in it, the organization
is maintained in existence, sometimes over a long period of time, despite many changes of
members.
Statt 1999: 118
From the perspective of organization theory firms are conceived as b u s i n e s s
o r g a n i z a t i o n s that means private organizations that are established and managed
by private individuals and aim at generating profit by providing goods and services
that satisfy customers’ or clients’ demands (Bates et al. 2006: 17).
The field of organization theory has been mostly elaborated in the second half of the
20th century (Starbuck 2003). Even though he holds that the delimitation from
studies on intra-organizational behavior remains fuzzy, Starbuck outlines the domain
of organization theory “looking at (a) single organizations as integrated systems, (b)
many organizations that resemble each other, or (c) interactions among groups of
organizations” (ibid.: 143, for an extensive overview of the central perspectives and
debates in organization theory see Astley & Van de Ven 1983). In recent years a
stream of organization theory, i n t e r p r e t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t u d i e s , has
been increasingly applied that particularly takes the social conditions and subjective
perspectives under which organizational behaviour, such as business planning, occurs
under consideration (Hatch & Yanow 2003). Hatch & Yanow describe the rationale
of this approach that also provides a contrasting perspective for the analysis of
business responses to climate change with respect to a natural science view on climate
change:
...the social cannot be understood in the same way as the natural and physical worlds.
Unlike rocks and atoms, humans make meaning, and so a human (or social) science needs
to be able to address what is meaningful to people in the social situation under study. This
requires understanding how groups, and individuals within them, develop, express, and
communicate meaning, something that objective, unmediated observation (if that were
even possible) cannot yield.
Hatch & Yanow 2003: 65f.
Complementary to organization theory the field of b u s i n e s s m a n a g e m e n t
t h e o r y provides a conceptual framework to analyse and understand organizationinternal activities, such as organizational planning and strategy development. More
BUSINESS RESPONSES TO CLIMATE IMPACTS IN THE ALPINE WINTER
TOURISM INDUSTRY
61
precisely management “means those actions that allow you to plan, organise, control,
and lead the resources of an organisation in such a way that it achieves specific
objectives” (Bates et al. 2006: 2). As regards business responses to climate change,
management theory holds insights about how information about climate change is
acquired, processed and transformed into plans and activities (cf. ibid.).
With a view of business planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry, this chapter
explores a partition of the social science perspective on climate research. As the
discussion on the climate vulnerability in chapter 1.1 suggest, this perspective is not
independent from the mostly natural-science perspective on climate change that has
been put forward in the previous chapter. It rather has to be seen as complementary
piece, necessary to understand the implications of the phenomenon of climate change
(cf. Rayner & Malone 1998). The rationale of chapter 3 is to present and systematize
different concepts that help to study and understand climate responses in the Alpine
tourism industry, its challenges and contextual conditions, from the perspective of
business planning in the particular firms.
The chapter is structured into five parts. In 3.1 the relevance of environmental factors
and processes beyond the boundaries of a business organization is explained.
Different notions of environmental dynamics as well as corresponding strategies that
are discussed in the literature are compiled in this section. 3.2 transfers these
discussions to the context of climate change and its significance for the Alpine winter
tourism industry. In 3.3 response strategies and measures that are applied by and
being suggested for Alpine winter tourism industries are assigned to the
environmental strategies presented before. 3.4 explores to which degree these
response options are already being applied and discusses their feasibility under future
climatic conditions. The issue of present and future adaptness of tourism businesses
to their local climate leads to an essential question in the domain of responding to
climate change: What capacity does a firm require in order to have the potential to
respond to climate change? A review of the existing literature on the capacity of
response, as the central concept of this thesis, is presented in the final section 3.5.
The section is concluded by discussing the specific characteristics of Alpine tourism
firms against the background of the presented determinants of the organizational
capacity of response that has been suggested by the literature.
62
3.1 Role of environmental dynamics from the perspective of
organization and management theory
The idea of this chapter is to provide concepts from organization and management
theory about the role of environmental dynamics that allow understanding and
describing the significance of climate change from the perspective of Alpine winter
tourism businesses.
The chapter is structured into three sections. First the notion of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t
within prominent schools of thought is outlined. Particular focus is put on the
integration of factors from the natural-physical environment, like climatic aspects,
into organizational planning. Conceptualizations on e n v i r o n m e n t a l d y n a m i c s
differ with respect to assumptions about the existence of absence of general
equilibrium conditions in environmental processes. These conceptualizations are
subject to the second section. The third section provides a literature review on the
different s t r a t e g i e s that have been developed by organization and management
scholars for (business) organizations to maintain functioning within a dynamic
environment. The different strategies are closely linked to the particular
conceptualizations of the dynamics in the organizations’ environments. They provide
a theoretical framework to categorize applied and suggested strategies for winter
tourism businesses to respond to the implications of climate change that will be
subject to the subsequent chapters.
3.1.1
Notion and relevance of the environment in organization
theory
The environment of a (business) organization with its interactions with the
organization is a classical and central concept in organization theory and
management sciences (Aguilar 1967, Duncan 1972, Porter 1980, Miller 1988, Hart
1995, Linnenluecke et al. 2008). In contrast to an organization’s internal
environment which is constituted by “physical and social factors within the
boundaries of the organization” (Duncan 1972: 314), the external environment is
ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF
ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT THEORY
63
thought of as the physical and social factors outside the organization’s boundaries that
are relevant to its operative success and competitive advantage (ibid., Hart 1995).
Traditionally the factors of the external organizational environment refer to
customers, suppliers, competitors, state of technology and socio-political institutions
and regulations (Duncan 1972, Hart 1995, Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996). Only
recently, the relevance of the natural (biophysical) environment has started to be
acknowledged and considered in the organization and management theory (Hart
1995, Egri & Pinfield 1996, Linnenluecke et al. 2008). The change of mind can,
inter alia, be explained by the increased awareness about ongoing depletion of natural
resources as well as anthropogenic induced global change processes, such as climate
change (ibid.). In this respect Hart suggests that in fact “one of the most important
drivers of new resource and capability development for firms will be the constraints
and challenges by the natural (biophysical) environment” (Hart 1995: 989). Likewise
Linnenluecke et al. call for a stronger recognition of the external environment’s
importance combined with an expansion of the predominant narrow view of the
organizational environment, particularly with an eye on those organizations that rely
on natural resources that are linked to specific climatic conditions (Linnenluecke et
al. 2008).
The external environment’s role has been grounded on a basic assumption of
organization and management science that “competitive advantage depends upon the
match between distinctive internal (organizational) capabilities and changing external
(environmental) circumstances” (Hart 1995: 987). Starting in the 1980s the focus of
theories in organization and management science to explain competitive success
among business organizations shifted from organizations’ external environments
towards organizational resources (Wernerfelt 1984, Barney 1991, Amit & Shoemaker
1993, Hart 1995). From the perspective of this so called resource-based view (RBV)
on organizational management resources that are owned or controlled by an
organization and that are characterized as “simultaneously valuable, rare, imperfectly
imitable and imperfectly substitutable”, are at the core of explaining competitive
advantage (Ambrosini & Bowman 2009: 29, Wernerfelt 1984, Barney 1991).
Examples for this kind of resources are operating routines, knowledge, skills, financial
and technical capital. The RBV has been criticized for systematically ignoring the
close relations between the organizational resources and the external environment, in
64
particular the biophysical, natural environment (Hart 1995, Linnenluecke et al.
2008). The role of the external environment for providing (natural) resources to an
organization therefore has long not been recognized in the principal discussions in
organization and management theory (ibid.).
However, in the subsequent elaboration of the RBV in recent years, the attributed
importance of factors and processes in the external environment again has been
reconsidered. Namely the organizations’ capabilities, unequally treated either as a
fraction of the organizational resources or complementary to them that an
organization requires to sustain within a dynamic environment have been
increasingly discussed (e.g., Teece et al. 1997, Eisenhardt & Martin 2000, Zollo &
Winter 2002, Helfat & Peteraf 2003, Wang & Ahmed 2007, Ambrosini & Bowman
2009). Generally speaking, dynamic capabilities refer to intentional, deliberate
organizational processes that draw on organizational resources and facilitate
organizational renewal in that its competitiveness in a changing environment can be
sustained (cf. ibid., cf. section 3.5.2: 95).
3.1.2
Organizational implications of environmental dynamics
Besides the question what kind of f a c t o r s would constitute the external
environment of an organization, a second discussion stream in organization theory
has traditionally been focused on the aspect of the environmental d y n a m i c s and its
implications for the management of an organization. The ability of an organization
to adjust its strategies and activities to variations in its external environment has been
subject to organizational theories for a long time. In fact, facilitating the adjustment
of business strategies and activities to environmental change is being considered to be
among the core tasks of an successful organizational management (Duncan 1972,
Miller 1988, Yasai-Ardekani & Haug 1997, Phillips & Moutinho 2000, Hoyt et al.
2007). Correspondingly, successful organizations are considered to tolerate variability
in environmental conditions given a certain organizational coping range
(cf. Linnenluecke et al. 2008).
In acknowledging environmental dynamics, organization theory has long been
influenced strongly by the assumption of external environments in equilibrium
65
(Meyer et al. 2005). In fact, “environmental stability has been regarded as a desirable
– if not necessary – state of organizational activity” (Linnenluecke et al. 2008: 6,
cf. Meyer et al. 2005). Even though the notion of equilibrium allowed for variability
and oscillations within the external environment, including discontinuous
perturbations, still such fluctuations in the environment were assumed to eventually
return to a long-term average state (ibid.). Against the background of practical
experiences with “[s]hifting industry boundaries, new network forms, emerging
sectors, and volatile ecosystems” in everyday organizational life (Meyer et al.
2005: 456), organization theorists slowly are turning down the ultimate objective of
organizational management to establish a sustaining match between organizations
and their environments in equilibrium, as it had been defined for instance by Simon
(ibid., referring to Simon 1947). Accordingly the discussions on successfully
managing an organization within an environment in flux have been extended by the
aspect of enabling an organization to maintain its functionings within an inherent
dynamic environment in the absence of an equilibrium state (Meyer et al. 2005,
Linnenluecke et al. 2008).
3.1.3
Organizational strategies to maintain functioning within a
dynamic environment
Transformations in the external environment can appear both gradually or on an
erratic way (Meyer et al. 2005, Linnenluecke et al. 2008). They can be both hostile or
favorable for an organization (Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996). Furthermore,
differences in environmental dynamics can be found among different industries,
ranging from (quasi) stability to high levels of dynamism (Hoyt et al. 2007). The
level of dynamism affects the level of environment (un)certainty an organizational
manager has to be able to cope with (ibid.).
An extensive literature review has been performed in order to identify different
existing strategies for organizations to cope with the different types of environmental
dynamics (cf. table 3.1). The literature corpus of organization and management
research with special focus on tourism management has been complemented by the
increasing literature in global change studies that link organization and management
66
theory to the specific challenges of global change and thereby has been pushing the
discourse on organizational strategies to cope with environmental dynamics.
Table 3.1: Reviewed literature on organizational responses to environmental dynamics
Organizational responses to
environmental dynamics in
general
Organizational responses to
climate change
Organizational responses of the
winter tourism industry to
climate change
Aguilar 1967, Duncan 1972,
Meyer 1982, Porter 1980, Fahey
et al. 1981, Daft et al. 1988,
Miller 1988, Hart 1995, Egri &
Pinfield 1996 Holling 1996,
Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom
1996, Teece et al. 1997, Eisenhardt & Martin 2000, Staber &
Sydow 2002, Zollo & Winter
2002, Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003,
Wildavsky 2003, Lengnick-Hall
& Beck 2005, Meyer et al.
2005, Darnhofer 2007, Fazey et
al. 2007, Hoyt et al. 2007,
Ambrosini & Bowman 2009
Smithers & Smit 1997,
Fankhauser et al. 1999, Reilly &
Schimmelpfennig 2000, Smit et
al. 2001, Yohe & Tol 2002,
Hertin et al. 2003, Arnell &
Delaney 2006, Arvai et al. 2006,
Berkhout et al. 2006, Dubois &
Ceron 2006, Gallopín 2006,
Smit & Wandel 2006, Adger et
al. 2007, Bleda & Shackley
2008 Linnenluecke et al. 2008,
McDaniels et al. 2008, Blennow
& Person 2009, Linnenluecke
2009
Breiling 1993, Koenig & Abegg
1997, Breiling & Charamza
1999, Wolfsegger 2005, Scott
2006, Hamilton et al. 2007,
Mayer et al. 2007, Moen &
Fredman 2007, OECD 2007,
Scott & McBoyle 2007, Steiger
& Mayer 2008, Arbesser et al.
2008, Ehmer & Heymann
2008, Scott et al. 2008,
Simpson et al. 2008, Wolfsegger
et al. 2008, Dawson et al. 2009,
Hoffmann et al. 2009, Scott et
al. 2009
In total three basic strategies could be identified: a d a p t n e s s to an external
environment in equilibrium, continuous i n n o v a t i o n to maintain a dynamic
adaptness in a continuous changing environment and organizational r e s i l i e n c e to
sustain detrimental short-term environmental stresses.
Adaptness strateg y – increasing productivity and efficiency in stable
environments
It has been said earlier that conventionally organization theory, and potentially
practice as well (cf. Staber & Sydow 2002), aim at optimizing the match between an
organization’s resources, products and routines and the conditions in its external
environment (ibid., Lengnick-Hall & Beck 2005). This strategy emanates from the
assumption of an environmental equilibrium that allows for incrementally
approaching the optimal organizational characteristics to productively use the
environmental conditions by collecting environmental information and increasing
efficiency in resource allocations. Therefore this strategy is reactive and only tolerates
minor changes in the external environment (Staber & Sydow 2002, Lengnick-Hall &
67
Beck 2005). Given the insights on organizations in an external environment in flux
(e.g., Meyer et al. 2005, Darnhofer 2007, section 3.1.2), the strategy has been
elaborated in order to continuously adapt the organization’s characteristics (like
resources, products and routines) to longer-term environmental change, such as
climate change. In the following this strategy is presented.
Innovation strateg y – coping with long-term environmental change
This organizational strategy aims at responding to longer-term changes in
environmental conditions by continuously, and if necessary quickly, adapting
organizational characteristics. The strategy, in some research fields referred to as
a d a p t i v e m a n a g e m e n t , involves experimentation, encouraging diversity and
creativity in order to facilitate innovative shifts and a ‘dynamic adaptness’ (e.g., Stacey
1995, Fankhauser et al. 1999, Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003, Lengnick-Hall & Beck 2005,
Arvai et al. 2006, Darnhofer 2007, Fazey et al. 2007, Hoyt et al. 2007). It is based on
evidences about the external environment that can be obtained by organizations’
formalized and informal environmental scanning schemes that contribute to learning
and sensemaking processes in the organization (Aguilar 1967, Daft et al. 1988,
Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003, Weick et al. 2005, Hoyt et al. 2007). The integration of
prospective knowledge on the external environment allows an organization to apply
also anticipatory responses (Fankhauser et al. 1999).
Resilience strateg y – coping with short-term environmental change
The third organizational strategy is oriented at coping with unanticipated detrimental
short-term events or discrete jolts in the external environment (e.g., Meyer 1982,
Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003, Wildavsky 2003, McDaniels et al. 2008). The objective of
this strategy is to increase the resilience 5 of organizations, which is defined by two
characteristics:
5 The concept of resilience has been developed and explored in various scientific fields such as
psychology, materials science, economics, ecology and environmental studies. Accordingly
different definitions of the concept exist that have been discussed elsewhere (Holling 1996,
Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003, McDaniels et al. 2008, Linnenluecke 2009). The notion used here
emanates from – the currently prevalent debates in organization theory, in particular with respect
to global environmental change.
68
(i) the ability to absorb strain and preserve (or improve) functioning despite the presence
of adversity (‘robustness’);
(ii) the ability to recover or bounce back from untoward events in a timely manner in order
to contain losses and future disruption (‘rapidity’).
Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003: 96, MCEER 2005: 19, McDaniels et al. 2008: 312
The resilience strategy suggests that an innovation strategy that aims at sustaining the
organization over the long-term by adapting to changing general environmental
conditions, focuses on different organizational characteristics that are required to
sustain short-term environmental jolts (Meyer et al. 2005, Linnenluecke 2009).
Among the three presented organizational strategies that aim at tackling
environmental dynamics in the long and the short term (innovation and resilience
strategy), the innovation strategy so far has received the biggest attention in the
climate change literature (cf. e.g., Adger et al. 2007). This might be due to the fact
that in the past climate research has been mostly concerned with changes in average
environmental conditions. With an growing insight in the importance of extreme
events also the discussion about strategies to cope with detrimental temporary climate
crises is likely to gain weight. In each case, authors both focusing on organization
theory and those focusing on the environmental challenges of climate change
highlight that both short-term and long-term strategies have to be integrated in order
to facilitate a sustainable organizational development (e.g., Staber & Sydow 2002,
Linnenluecke 2009).
Even though detrimental impacts of shorter-term and longer-term dynamics in the
external environment are of primary concern in discussions on organizational coping
strategies, environmental dynamics also hold positive impacts and opportunities for
organizations (Hart 1995, Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996, Sutcliffe & Vogus
2003). Environmental change can lead to an upvaluation of the organization’s
resources, such as an increased attractiveness of Alpine summer tourism products
through a general warming trend (cf. chapter 1.1: 52). From an evolutionary
perspective on organizations environmental change can trigger organizational
development and flourishing (Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003). In this respect Hart promotes
early organizational responses to environmental change in order for an organization
to gain first-mover competitive advantage by setting new standards (Hart 1995).
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE ALPINE WINTER TOURISM
INDUSTRY – NEED TO RESPOND
69
3.2 Environmental change in the Alpine winter tourism
industry – need to respond
In this chapter the conceptualizations of organizations’ external environments are
transferred to the Alpine winter tourism industry. This allows integrating the
theoretical framework of organization and management studies with the naturalscience perspective on climate change that has been elaborated in chapter 2. It is
explained from an organizational perspective how climate change is a relevant
phenomenon to business planning in the Alpine tourism industry and what needs
arise for these businesses to respond to the phenomenon.
The first section of this chapter addresses the role of climatic factors among other
factors in the organizational external environments of businesses in the tourism
industry. In this respect it is outlined how the specific dynamics of these factors,
including traditional climate variability, has shaped the modalities of business
planning in this industry. The second section deals with the specific challenges that a
changing climate poses on the tourism business. In particular the novelty of the
phenomenon as well as the issue of urgency to respond are addressed based on
current discussions in the climate change literature.
3.2.1
External environment of organizations in the tourism
industry
The external environments of business organizations in the tourism industry are
constituted both by socio-economic factors and by factors in the natural
environment. Tourism trends and developments within the capital market that affect
organizations’ credit situations are among the important socio-economical factors of
organizations’ external environments in the tourism industry (Lerner & Haber 2001,
Gómez Martín 2005). On the local level tourism businesses (e.g., accommodation)
are dependent on other business organizations (e.g., gastronomy, sport offers) that
together contribute in terms of a local business and resource network to the overall
tourism product of the destination and thus shape the local organizations’
environments and their planning to a good extent (Jamal & Getz 1995, Tinsley &
70
Lynch 2001). In addition to local business organizations the local organizational
environments are shaped by organizations like local authorities and tourism
associations that actively manage the local tourism network (table 3.2).
Table 3.2: Important types of organizations involved in the local winter tourism business
(Source: own compilation, cf. Wolfsegger et al. 2008)
Local business organizations
•
•
•
Accommodation businesses
Gastronomy businesses
Winter sport service providers
• Cable car and ski lift operators
• Ski school and ski rental businesses
Local network organizations
•
•
•
Local authorities
Tourism associations
Destination management organizations
With respect to the natural environment organizational science, literature holds that
it has been traditionally disregarded in organizational planning (e.g., Hart 1995, Egri
& Pinfield 1996, Linnenluecke et al. 2008). In case of the tourism industry the
natural environment on site is an obvious part of the tourism products, among with
socio-cultural aspects (McGregor 1996). Nevertheless, most tourism firms were not
considered to be able to fully integrate impact feedback cycles (organization →
natural environment → organization), for instance through pollution or excessive
land use in their surrounding natural environment, into their planning processes
(ibid.). This particularly is considered true for small tourism firms that dominate the
tourism market and lack the organizational capacities for an integrated longer-term
oriented business planning (ibid.). Local climatic patterns are among the important
natural environmental factors that shape the attractiveness of tourism destinations
and the possibilities to offer specific activities, like skiing in winter season (Gómez
Martín 2005, de Freitas et al. 2008, Simpson et al. 2008, cf. chapter 1.1).
Factors in the wider socio-economical environment of organizations in the tourism
industry are characterized by a high volatility, such as rapid shifts in tourists’ demand
patterns (e.g., shifts in outbound tourism flows, new activity and lifestyle trends).
Tourism businesses traditionally had to integrate these environmental dynamics into
their business planning in order to compete in the market (Chan et al. 2005).
Therefore adapting to environmental change in general represents an inherent part of
the tourism business.
71
The local natural environment, in contrast, allowed tourism destination to develop
and operate due to biophysical conditions, such as climate patterns that could be
characterized as stable and thus predictable in their averages (Smith 1990,
Linnenluecke et al. 2008). Reliable winter or summer weather conditions, such as
snow reliable mountain resorts or dry and mild summer destinations form the basis
for establishing tourism product (Smith 1990, Gómez Martín 2005, Amelung et al.
2007). Nevertheless, also generally stable climatic conditions involve some degree of
inherent variability (cf. chapter 2.1). As a consequence tourism businesses have
accommodated to a certain frequency and magnitude of detrimental events, such as
snow-poor winter seasons or cold spells in summer season (Bürki 2000, Gómez
Martín 2005, Linnenluecke et al. 2008). The observed and projected trends in
climate change, however, challenge the traditional business planning within
equilibrium conditions of the natural (climatic) environment in the tourism industry.
3.2.2
The tourism business under conditions of climate change
Considerations on the novelty of climate change
Climate change represents a novel type of dynamic of the external organizational
environment in different respects. First of all, the phenomenon of climate change
implies that the climatic conditions are shifting away from a long-term equilibrium
(cf. chapter 2.3). Given the fact that the equilibrium situation has been the basis of
Alpine and other tourism destinations to emerge and develop, the observed and
projected climate trends “have the potential to fundamentally alter ways in which
organizations are operating” (Linnenluecke et al. 2008: 10, cf. Ehmer & Heymann
2008). In contrast to past interannual or decadal variations of climatic patterns,
future climate trends are expected to refer to centennial time scales, long beyond
current organizational planning horizons in the tourism industry (McGregor 1996,
Berkhout et al. 2006, Füssel 2007). Berkhout et al. hold that particularly “the long
time-scales and uncertainties inherent to climate change sets it apart from more
conventional drivers of change such as competition, technological change or market
demand” (Berkhout et al. 2006: 153).
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The impacts of climate change on tourism businesses take place on different time
scales: On the one hand tourism businesses are impacted by shifts in long-term
climatic mean values, like average temperature and precipitation patterns.The
resulting impacts unfold continuously over a longer time period and are reflected by
gradual changes, such as glacier retreats and shifts of permafrost boundaries into
higher altitudes, which alter the conditions for summer and winter tourism in these
areas (OECD 2007, cf. section 2.4.2). On the other hand climate change shifts the
patterns of shorter-term impacts. Tourism businesses face the risk of being affected by
an increasing magnitude and frequency of extreme climate and weather events, such
as warm spells in winter seasons or heavy storm events (cf. section 2.3.2). Even
though businesses have accommodated to the – stationary – risk of experiencing such
events, organizations “are rarely equipped to deal with changes that occur more
abruptly, and/or with greater scale of scope.” (Linnenluecke et al. 2008: 9, referring
to Schneider et al. 2001, cf. Füssel 2007).
Figure 3.1: Organizational resilience in case of a shorter-term extreme event
(Source: adapted from McDaniels et al. 2008 and Linnenluecke 2009)
Figure 3.1 illustrates the consequences of extreme events on the organizational
performance (e.g., revenues, financial capital stock). Besides the rapidity of the
performance recovery the organization’s robustness, defined by the degree of
performance loss or magnitude of the event an organization can sustain without
collapsing, plays a key role for the organization’s resilience (cf. section 3.1.3). Figure
3.2 depicts the threats that come along with repeated extreme events. The illustration
73
points out that an increasing frequency of extreme events poses new challenges on
organizations that have been traditionally able to cope with extreme events as normal
consequences of the natural climate variability. Following the logic of the impactrecovery phases of the model in figure 3.2, repeated detrimental events bear the
potential to weaken the organizational performance and thus reduce the rate of
recovery in that the organization’s performance at a certain time crosses its critical
resilience threshold. This has also found to be true for the winter tourism industry
(Dawson et al. 2009, cf. section 2.4.1).
Figure 3.2: Organizational resilience in the case of repeated short-term extreme events
(Source: adapted from McDaniels et al. 2008 and Linnenluecke 2009)
The novel characteristics of climate change imply that traditional organizational risk
assessments of extreme events in the Alpine climate that rely on retrospective
information are no longer appropriate (OECD 2007). In order to stay in business
Alpine tourism firms are required to respond to these changing environmental
conditions by developing new organizational planning practices that allow to detach
planning from the traditional range of experiences with the local climatic conditions
(cf. Linnenluecke et al. 2008). This is particularly true as the source of climate change
– in contrast to earlier detrimental anthropogenic impacts on the local natural
environments and hence attractiveness on tourists – cannot be remedied on the local
level: Earlier changes of the natural environmental that had impacts on tourist
attractiveness had been triggered primarily by local actions, such as a shift in land use
patterns, like deforestation that resulted in increasing risk of avalanches (Barker 1982,
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Ortloff 1999). In Austria, for instance, the problems of deforestation could be
resolved quite successfully, not least because the main drivers for deforestation are
positioned on a local or national level (cf. Pregernig & Weiss 1998). This will be
considerably more difficult with climate change issues and their impacts on the
Alpine tourist sector. The drivers in this context are multinational in their spatial
scale and profoundly interrelated, constituting a high-grade complex system (IPCC
2001).
Considerations on the urgency of climate responses
Besides the novel characteristics of climate change in contrast to more traditional
changes in the organizations’ external environments, need to respond is also linked to
the question of urgency.
The literature on the impacts of climate change on society in general and on the
Alpine tourism industry in particular provides arguments on the time frame and the
urgency of implementing responses (e.g. table 3.3). The United Nations
Environmental Program (UNEP) together with the UN World Tourism
Organization (UNWTO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in a
joint recent publication stated that “climate change is not a remote future event for
tourism, as the varied impacts of a changing climate are even now becoming evident
at destinations around the world” (Simpson et al. 2008: 12). As a consequence they
identify “a need for rapid action for destinations predicted to be among those
impacted by mid-century” (ibid.: 18).
Table 3.3: ‘Six reasons to adapt to climate change now’
(Source: IPCC 2001: 890, quoting Burton 1996)
1) Climate change cannot be totally avoided.
2)
Anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, lastminute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting.
3)
Climate change may be more rapid and more pronounced than current estimates suggest. Unexpected events are possible.
4)
Immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate variability and extreme
atmospheric events.
5) Immediate benefits also can be gained by removing maladaptive policies and practices.
6)
Climate change brings opportunities as well as threats. Future benefits can result from climate
change.
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With respect to the Alpine winter tourism industry Elsasser & Bürki point out that
climate impacts have to be considered in the context of other shifts in the socioeconomic environment of the tourism business that are characterized by a much
higher dynamic (Elsasser & Bürki 2002). In comparison to those changes, for
instance in tourism trends, tourism businesses would have a fairly long time to plan
and implement climate responses. However, observed and projected climate trends in
the Alpine area indicate that pleas for urgency hold true particularly for Alpine resorts
at lower elevations that are projected to suffer a further loss of snow reliability already
within the 2010 decade (cf. chapter 1.1). Furthermore, even though the local average
climate conditions (e.g., winter mean temperature, snow reliability) might be well
above a level, critical to an organization’s functioning, the changing frequency and
magnitude of extreme climate and weather events might exceed a critical threshold
long before the average trend does (cf. figure 3.2: 73). These consequences could
therefore also apply to tourism destinations at higher elevations. With respect to the
remaining uncertainties in terms of the precise local exposure to climate impacts,
Breiling argued that waiting for certainty would mean to wait until it is too late for
effective responses (Breiling 1993). This argument, in the meantime more than 16
years old, corresponds well to the more recent arguments on behalf of the IPCC,
pointing out (cost-)effectiveness of anticipatory and precautionary responses
(cf. table 3.3).
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3.3 Climate response strategies and measures in the Alpine
In the previous chapter the implications of climate change for the Alpine winter
tourism industry have been addressed together with the need of respective business
organizations to implement response activities. In general, climate responses refer to
adjustments of a system (organization, institution, group, individual, industry) that
reduce the likelihood and the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from climate
change and make use of the benefits emerging from climate change (Smithers & Smit
1997, Smit & Wandel 2006, Adger et al. 2007).
Figure 3.3: Simplified
cycle
business
resource
In the Alpine winter tourism projected climate change is to reduce the economic
value of core tourism products, above all snow-based winter sports, which are the
basis of providing further products, such as accommodation and gastronomy. The
economic consequences of climate change can be illustrated along a very simplified
model of business economics (figure 3.3). The model implies that the accompanying
loss in revenues from the business products ceases to balance against running costs of
product development and maintenance. In the context addressed here, the loss in
revenues results from short-term or long-term dynamics of specific local climatic
conditions that the winter tourism products (e.g. a skiing slope) depend on. The
resulting reduction of the organization’s net profit and stock of financial resources
eventually threatens the sustainability of the business.
CLIMATE RESPONSE STRATEGIES AND MEASURES IN THE ALPINE
77
Climate responses in the Alpine winter tourism industry therefore aim at adapting
the tourism products in a way that revenues are maintained over time and open
access to alternative resource flows in case of temporary, climate and weather induced
revenue losses. Responses of tourism businesses can be both of deliberate or nondeliberate nature or co-motivated by aspects, other than climate change (cf. Reilly &
Schimmelpfennig 2000).
In the following sections climate response strategies and measures that are already
applied in practice and/or proposed by literature are systematized and summarized on
the basis of (i) different types of climate impacts (cf. chapter 2.1) and on the basis of
(ii) the concepts on organizational management in the context of climate change that
have been brought forward in the previous chapters (cf. chapters 3.1 and 3.2). First
business options to respond to long-term shifts in climatic mean conditions will be
introduced. Subsequently options are presented to allow businesses to cope with
temporary climate crises that are associated to shorter-term climate variability. Both
types represent complementary business strategies that are integrated within a
business response model, based on the simplified business resource cycle (figure 3.3)
that allows to discuss synergies and trade-offs between the different response
strategies.
The literature review revealed that the strategic distinction between responses to
shorter-term climate crises and longer-term shifts in climatic averages has not been
introduced so far. In fact, the vast majority of earlier works on business responses to
the impacts of climate change in the Alpine tourism industry refers to adaptive
responses to shifts in longer-term climatic averages. With a growing awareness on the
industry’s vulnerability to shorter-term extreme events, it has been found necessary
and consequent to suggest an elaborated classification of responses, differentiating
between shorter-term and longer-term impacts of climate change.
3.3.1
Strategies and measures to respond to long-term impacts
Much research has been conducted in recent years with respect to the question how
Alpine winter tourism businesses can adapt to longer-term shifts in climatic averages,
particularly to warming trends and change in precipitation patterns (e.g., Mayer et al.
78
2007, OECD 2007, Scott & McBoyle 2007, Steiger & Mayer 2008, Wolfsegger et
al. 2008, Dawson et al. 2009, Hoffmann et al. 2009, Scott et al. 2009). Hoffmann et
al. (2009) distinguish two fundamental adaptation strategies for longer-term shifts in
climatic averages: p r o t e c t i n g the affected winter sport offers (mostly slope-based
downhill skiing) and e x p a n d i n g one’s business products beyond winter sport
towards products that are not negatively affected by observed and projected climate
change.
Table 3.4: Organizational strategies and measures to respond to the impacts of shifting long-term climate
means (1/2): protect the affected business
(Sources: cf. table 3.1 on page 66)
Response
strategy
Response measures
Reducing the exposure to climate impacts
Protect snow based winter tourism products
• Concentrate slope sports in higher terrains of the developed area
• Develop higher terrain for slope sports
• Concentrate slope sports at spots that are less exposed to direct insolation
Reducing the sensitivity towards climate impacts
Technical measures:
• Extend artificial snowmaking capacity, use of additives
• Improve/professionalize slope development and operational practices to reduce the
required snow cover (e.g. plane slopes)
• Install blankets for snow conservation
• Open slopes with less snow than usual
• Cloud seeding
Management measures:
• Reduce capacity and services in low season (closing down)
• Ski resort conglomerate
• Marketing & pricing (e.g. organize winter sport competitions)
The p r o t e c t - s t r a t e g y is conceptually close to the adaptness strategy, introduced
in section 3.1.3, as it adheres to the traditional winter tourism products that have
been developed under the stable conditions of the earlier climate regime. The
response measures of this strategy on the one hand are oriented at reducing the
exposure of core tourism products to climate impacts, for instance by concentrating
slope sports in higher terrains or at spots that are less exposed to direct insolation
(table 3.4). On the other hand response measures aim at allowing winter tourism
products, like downhill skiing, to perform under a wider range of climate regimes,
79
thus reducing their climate sensitivity (cf. Fankhauser et al. 1999). Artificial
snowmaking is the most prominent response measure of this type (OECD 2007).
These rather technical measures are accompanied by management measures, such as
promoting the quality and reliability of the winter tourism products through
marketing (table 3.4).
Table 3.5: Organizational strategies and measures to respond to the impacts of shifting long-term climate
means (2/2): expand beyond the affected business
Response
strategy
Response measures
Summer tourism products
• Offer adventure and fun sports (e.g. paragliding, summer toboggan-runs, mountain
bike/downhill routes)
Expand beyond the affected business
Winter tourism products
• Offer adventure and fun sports with less requirement with respect to snow availability
(e.g., snowshoeing trails, toboggan runs, snow mobiling, dog sled-rides, ice skating)
• Develop winter theme parks
All-season tourism products
• Hiking trails (e.g., theme hiking)
• Gastronomy on the mountain
• Summer-and winter events on the mountain (e.g., concerts)
• Wellness and sport offers (e.g., indoor pools, health and wellness spas, fitness centers,
squash and tennis)
• Indoor ski ares
• Climate change attractions "endangered wonders" (e.g., glaciers)
Management measures
• Marketing of expanded tourism offers
• Product / market / revenue diversification
The e x p a n d - s t r a t e g y corresponds to the innovation strategy, introduced in
section 3.1.3, as it provides for business product innovations in changing
environmental conditions. The strategy is oriented on the renewal of the core
business products in that tourism offers are developed and established that perform
well under altering local climatic mean conditions. Measures of this strategy comprise
climate independent, all-season tourism products, like hiking and wellness spas as
well as offers like indoor skiing that are closer to the traditional core business
products (table 3.5). Measures that are focused on the winter season aim at
80
establishing alternatives to slope-oriented winter sports, with less requirements with
respect to the snow depth (e.g., snowshoeing trails). Measures for the summer season
are targeted on developing a second core season within the mainly winter oriented
Alpine tourism business (cf. section 2.4.1, e.g., mountain biking trails, table 3.5).
3.3.2
Strategies and measures to respond to short-term crises
Tourism businesses experience the impacts of long-term shift in climate averages in
the first place in terms of an increased frequency and intensity of short-term climate
and weather extremes (cf. chapter 2.1). Therefore they require organizational
response strategies and measures that allow to cope better with temporary and acute
crisis situations that are triggered by these events and may threaten the continuity of
the business (cf. chapter 2.1, Simpson et al. 2008). In contrast to business responses
to long-term shift in climate mean conditions, so far not much literature exists on
(climate) crisis management in the Alpine tourism industry (exceptions: OECD
2007, Hoffmann et al. 2009). However, for other tourism branches and industries
(e.g., construction, health, agriculture) a broader set of strategies to manage an
increasing likelihood of climate crises has been discussed (e.g., Hertin et al. 2003,
Berkhout et al. 2006, McDaniels et al. 2008, Simpson et al. 2008, Linnenluecke
2009). These strategies might have been already adopted by Alpine tourism
businesses, but have not been discussed in the literature yet. In any case they can be
considered as potential response strategies for this industry.
The organizational strategies that have been identified in the literature review to
prepare for climate crises on the one hand are targeted to facilitate a quick recovery
from a temporary economic impact (‘emergency preparedness requirements’,
Simpson et al. 2008). In this respect they correspond to the resilience strategy that
has been discussed in section 3.1.3. On the other hand a crisis situation might also
lead to the insight that business as usual would not be a viable strategy to sustain an
organization after recovery and therefore a rapid reorientation of the business is
required. In this respect the set of in total three strategies (table 3.6) also refers to the
innovation strategy, introduced in section 3.1.3.
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The strategy of developing e m e r g e n c y p r o d u c t s aims at facilitating temporary,
alternative tourism offers (e.g., cultural events) to convince one’s guests to stay in
spite of unfavorable weather conditions (e.g., lack of snow). The application strategy
allows to contain revenue losses in the core business and compensates unavoidable
losses by establishing temporary, alternative income sources. As coping with “bad
weather” in terms of offering alternative tourism activities to “guarantee customer
loyalty even during bad weather” (Gómez Martín 2005: 577) belongs to the
traditional tasks of running a tourism business, the strategy is not completely new to
businesses in the Alpine tourism industry.
Building up s l a c k r e s o u r c e s represents a strategy that helps the business
organization to temporary buffer economic losses (cf. Scott et al. 2009). Slack
resources refer to the access to financial reserves of the organization as well as to
additional, potentially volunteer, work force (e.g., access to unpaid family labor).
Besides their function to facilitate rapid recovery of the organizational performance
they allow to quickly adapt the tourism product to so far detrimental climate and
weather conditions.
Table 3.6: Organizational strategies and measures to respond to the impacts of short-term climate extreme
events: crisis management
Response
strategy
Response measures
Developing and establishing alternative / emergency products
• Temporary alternative activities (e.g., cultural events)
Crisis Management
• Permanent alternative activities (e.g., wellness spa, indoor sport facilities)
Building up resource slack
• (Joint) financial reserves
• Agreements on volunteer work force (e.g., family, broader local social network)
Risk spreading and containment / burden-sharing
• Effect a snow insurance or weather derivates
• Increasing flexibility of work force (operating costs)
• Split operating and investment costs with local industry and/or the local authority
• Cooperate with local industry (e.g., joint offerings, exchange of technical equipment
with other ski lift operators)
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C o n t a i n i n g a n d s p r e a d i n g t h e r i s k and s h a r i n g t h e b u r d e n of the
economic impacts of climate and weather extremes draws on institutional
arrangements such as market based mechanisms (e.g., snow insurances for tourism
operators), cooperative agreements and public subsidies (Fankhauser et al. 1999,
Bürki et al. 2003, Moen & Fredman 2007, OECD 2007, Hoffmann et al. 2009).
Cooperations can include joint investments and offerings with other local businesses
or the local authority in order to reduce the running costs for the individual business
and thus to lower the level of revenues it requires to break even. Thereby the risk of
experiencing financial difficulties can be contained (OECD 2007, Hoffmann et al.
2009). Furthermore it increases the managerial flexibility by reducing the time
horizon of individual capital commitments.
3.3.3
Integrative view on the organizational management of
responses to short-term and long-term impacts of climate
change
Based on the organizational response strategies that have been outlined in the
previous sections, an integrative model (figure 3.4) has been developed that relates
the different strategies to the organizational resource cycle that had been depicted in
figure 3.3. The model distinguishes between two business modes that contribute to
the organizational resource balance: The s t a n d a r d r e s o u r c e c y c l e represents the
balance of costs and revenues emanating from the ordinary (core) business products
that secure the long-term survival of the organization. The e m e r g e n c y r e s o u r c e
c y c l e , in turn, comes into operation as a back-up system when the revenues from
the core business products that drive the standard resource cycle drop off in case of an
acute crisis situation (cf. Simpson et al. 2008). The emergency functions open up
sources of capital that help to compensate a temporary revenue loss.
The model allows systematizing the different existing climate response strategies in
terms of their contribution to the short-term and long-term organizational
performance, a task that has not been realized so far. Furthermore, the model shows
that the two resource cycles are complementary and equally necessary for sustaining
the Alpine tourism business organizations in the context of climate change. Given an
83
increasing likelihood and intensity of single and repeated climate and weather
extremes (cf. section 3.2.2), tourism businesses have to face an increasing risk of
discontinuities in their standard resource cycles (cf. figure 3.2 on page 73). However,
crisis management functions are hardly sufficient to constitute a core tourism
product that attracts an economically sufficient amount of tourists (OECD 2007,
Ehmer & Heymann 2008). The evidence of observed and projected climate trends
suggests that business products that emanate from the former climate equilibrium
will not perform in the middle- and long term and therefore require adaptive
measures (cf. section. 3.2.2).
Figure 3.4: Model of response strategies to feed the business resource cycles under
conditions of short-term climate crises and long-term shifts in climate
averages, exemplified along the Alpine cable car business
Against the background of an increasing importance of future climatic conditions on
the one hand and an increasing availability of prospective knowledge on these
conditions on the other hand, the importance of strategic, i.e. a future oriented
business planning for building and maintaining competitive advantage is growing as
well (cf. 3.1.3: 68, Hart 1995). This particularly holds true, as the businesses
management has to balance aspects of short-term and long-term profitability to
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ensure the economic sustainability of the business. The organizations’ limited
resources result in trade-offs between investments into responses in the emergency
and standard resource cycle and between future oriented responses in general and
investments into the business as usual that increase the short-term profitability (Reilly
& Schimmelpfennig 2000, Staber & Sydow 2002). However, the presented strategies
also come with synergies: the measures that carry the different presented strategies
(tables 3.4 to 3.6) are not all exclusively bound to a specific strategy (cf. Adger et al.
2007). Alternative (emergency) products, like indoor sport facilities, contribute also
to the diversity of the overall tourism product (OECD 2007). Cooperations among
local businesses to increase managerial flexibility and share the risk of climate impacts
also reduce the operating costs and as a consequence increase the short-term
profitability. Expanding beyond the affected snow-based winter business also opens
up additional, climate change-independent business opportunities (ibid.).
ADAPTNESS OF THE ALPINE WINTER TOURISM INDUSTRY TOWARDS
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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3.4 Adaptness of the Alpine winter tourism industry
towards impacts of climate change
In order to assess the relevance of implementing the presented climate response
strategies and measures in the Alpine winter tourism industry in the future as well as
to identify preferences of tourism businesses with respect to particular responses it is
necessary to obtain an overview about the response steps that already have been taken
cf. Scott et al. 2008). Responses that have been implemented have increased the
a d a p t n e s s of a particular organization or destination, meaning the status of being
adapted to a certain range of climatic conditions (Gallopín 2006). This in turn
reduces the vulnerability towards climate change and hence the necessity for further
responses, at least within certain thresholds. Schneider et al., however, hold that also
“maladaptations are possible – particularly when information about future climatic
and other conditions is much less than perfect – as a response to an incorrect
perception of such changes, often driven by a masking of slowly evolving trends by
large natural variability or extreme events” (Schneider et al. 2001: 90). They
furthermore point out that maladaptations “can increase the costs of impacts relative
to those when adaptive agents have perfect foresight or when adaptive responses are
absent” (ibid.). In this section a résumé of the current state of knowledge on the
adaptness of the Austrian winter tourism industry will be given. Subsequently the
future feasibility of response options will be discussed that has an effect on the future
vulnerability of tourism businesses to climate change.
3.4.1
Climate responses: present state of implementation
A number of inquiries have been undertaken to assess the application of climate
response measures in the Alpine tourism industry (e.g., OECD 2007, Sprengel
2008). For Austria the studies of Wolfsegger et al. and Haberl et al. (Wolfsegger
2005, Wolfsegger et al. 2008, Haberl et al. 2008) provide insights in the current
adaptness of the national Alpine winter tourism industry. Artificial snowmaking,
enhanced marketing and increasing lift capacity to intensify seasons, developing
slopes at higher altitudes and sites less exposed and diversifying the tourism products
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are among the preferred climate responses of tourism managers (table 3.7).
Artificial snowmaking to protect the winter tourism business is the most preferred
response strategy of Austrian winter tourism destinations (cf. section 2.4.1, table 3.7,
Scott et al. 2008, Wolfsegger et al. 2008). In 2007 59% of the skiable terrain in
Austria was covered by snowmaking facilities – more than in other countries in the
European Alps (I: 40%, SLO: 40%, CH: 19%, F: 19%, GER: 18%) (Arbesser et al.
2008, Steiger & Mayer 2008). As result, in many destinations the loss in natural
snow reliability could be successfully compensated through an increase of technical
snow reliability (Mayer et al. 2007). Snowmaking that has been first introduced in
Austrian destinations in the 1970s and has been more intensively applied since the
mid 1980s, and initially has been regarded as luxury and back up facility, is now
perceived as necessity of offering a competitive tourism product (Mayer et al. 2007,
OECD 2007). However, Meyer (2007) and Steiger & Meyer (2008) found that even
though climate change is perceived as incentive for current investments into artificial
snowmaking, it is not the most important one among other factors like risk
containment, natural precipitation variability, and global tourism trends. By now the
technical snow-reliability has become an important factor of tourism marketing,
which is in turn a further prominent measure of tourism managers in the European
Alps to reduce the economic dependency of local climatic conditions (OECD 2007).
Besides combined snowmaking-marketing strategies, ski resorts have adapted to the
warming trend by developing slopes in area less exposed to higher temperatures in
high altitudes and avoiding southern expositions (table 3.7).
According to the study of Wolfsegger (2005) the expansion of the tourism business
beyond the traditional ski business by diversifying the tourism products, both in the
winter and summer season is frequently applied, or planned to be applied by Austrian
tourism managers in low altitude destinations. This corresponds to a general
development in tourism destinations in the European Alps (OECD 2007).
Deliberate or not these complementary offers also contribute to the short-term crisis
management capabilities of these destinations (cf. section 3.3.2). In this respect,
many tourism managers establish cooperations with other resorts or within the local
community, by which the economic risks of temporary revenue losses can be
contained, even though it can be assumed that climate change is not the main trigger
for these actions (table 3.7).
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Table 3.7: Response measures currently used or planned to be used by business managers in Austria’s low
altitude ski resorts
(N= 34, data source: Wolfsegger 2005: 30 published in parts in: Wolfsegger et al. 2008)
Response
function
Response measure
%
Adaptation management
Reducing climate sensitivity of the ski business
Snowmaking
100
Enhanced marketing to intensify seasons
55
Increasing capacity of lifts
50
Opening slopes with less snow than usual
34
Usage of seasonal weather forecasts to improve seasonal planning of marketing
and snowmaking
19
Snowmaking with chemical additives
0
Artificial ski slopes (e.g., carpets)
0
Reducing exposure of the ski business to climate impacts
Moving ski runs to higher altitudes
58
Avoiding southern exposure of ski runs
50
Shadowing of slopes by trees
33
Expanding beyond / reducing the ski business
Diversification of all seasonal offerings
59
Diversification of winter offerings
59
Shorting the operating period of the season
38
Giving up slopes that need to much snow cover
12
Giving up the whole ski resort
6
Crisis management
Emergency products 6
Diversification of all seasonal offerings
59
Diversification of winter offerings
59
Risk containment & sharing
Joining conglomeration
79
Sharing costs of snowmaking with the accommodation industry
45
Insurance against financial losses
6
6 The results do not reveal whether the diversification strategies only referred to an expansion of
core business products or also involve alternative activities to react on temporary climate crises.
Therefore the study results have been included as well in the crisis management category.
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In general, responses both to long-term shifts in climate means and short-term
climate and weather extremes seem to be under way. However, the current state of
knowledge does not allow conclusions on the current degree of the Austrian winter
tourism industry’s adaptness towards projected climate trends. It remains unclear to
which extent the applied and planned measures are been motivated by the awareness
of short-term and long-term impacts of climate change or rather represent feasible,
but non-deliberate climate responses. Given that it is assumed that, for instance
“belief in climate change is a prerequisite to adaptation” (Blennow & Person
2009: 101) this in turn might influence the future development of the climate
adaptness in the Austrian winter tourism industry.
3.4.2
Future feasibility of climate responses
The future adaptness of tourism businesses and destinations is linked to the question
whether the response strategies and measures that are taken into account by tourism
managers prove feasible in the future as well. Discussions on the existing response
options point out a set of physical and economic constraints that could restrict their
future applicability.
The future application of snowmaking as a measure to respond to the warming trend
is limited by the economical profitability and technical feasibility. Given the costs of
snowmaking (cf. table 2.5 on page 52) and the long investment periods (20-25 years,
Mayer et al. 2007) an adaptation with artificial snowmaking might be possible for
many destinations, but not necessarily economical profitable (Breiling & Charamza
1999, Adger et al. 2007, Arbesser et al. 2008). Investments in a sophisticated
snowmaking infrastructure require to increase the value creation per unit of area in
order to pay off (Arbesser et al. 2008). Therefore, the cost-benefit calculation of
adaptation by snowmaking depends also on the disposable income of tourists and on
the availability of alternative destinations (Breiling & Charamza 1999).
Given that the investment and operating costs for artificial snowmaking are likely to
increase due to an increased demand for artificial snow, increased technical
requirements in a warmer environment and potentially rising energy costs, it might
in many cases be an insufficient response measure, particularly for small destinations
89
(Hamilton et al. 2007, Ehmer & Heymann 2008). Moreover, as the possibility for
artificial snowmaking depends on environmental air temperature and moisture, there
are physical limitations to artificial snowmaking in a changing climate (OECD 2007,
Ehmer & Heymann 2008). The current technology requires a surrounding
temperature of at least -2°C or less, which can be extended to 0°C by the use of
additives (OECD 2007). Particular difficulties in artificial snowmaking thus can be
expected in lower altitudes and south expositions (Ehmer & Heymann 2008).
Against the background of economical and physical limitations snowmaking for
many destinations might represent only a transitory response measure (Breiling 1993,
OECD 2007).
The challenges of climate change not only play a role in the bookkeeping of tourism
managers, but in the economical calculations of financial institutions that provide
dept capital for investments in the winter tourism industry. Banks have become
increasingly reluctant to grant credits to ski resorts, particular at low altitudes
(OECD 2007). For Switzerland Elasser & Bürki state that “banks are (now) only
prepared to grant very restrictive loans to ski resorts at altitudes below 1500 masl
[meters above sea level]” (Elsasser & Bürki 2002: 255). Also in other countries,
financial institution have been found to link their financial contributions to climate
vulnerability conditions of winter tourism destinations (OECD 2007). Similarly, the
snow insurance business that was first initiated in the end of the 1990s in the US to
allow winter tourism businesses to contain the risk of snow deficient winters in the
meantime has arrived at the point of stagnation. Substantially increasing premiums
have induced major ski resorts to withdraw from the contracts (Scott 2006). Under
these conditions “the cost is sure to exclude the small to medium size ski enterprises
that are at the greatest risk from climate change” (ibid.: 277).
To date no detailed reports exists on the impacts of observed and projected climate
trends on the willingness of financial institutions, like banks and insurances, in
Austria to bear parts of the economic risks, related to investments in the winter
tourism industry. However, it can be assumed that the reactions would turn out in a
similar way. With respect of a future adaptness to climate trends as well as the future
feasibility particular of those technical response measures to protect the ski business,
problems are especially likely to occur in small destinations at low altitudes
(cf. section 2.4.2).
90
3.5 Capacity of Alpine winter tourism businesses to engage
in climate responses
In chapter 3 so far the relevance of climate change for Alpine winter tourism
businesses has been described from an organizational perspective, as well as potential
strategies and measures for these businesses to respond to short-term and long-term
climate impacts. An issue that so far has not been tackled relates to the question to
what extent a tourism business actually has the capacity to plan and deploy the
responses that have been suggested. The c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e has been
suggested as one of three dimensions of the conceptualization of the vulnerability to
climate change – besides the sensitivity to climate change and the exposure to climate
impacts (cf. chapter 1.1). Since the start of the 2000s decade definitions and concepts
of the capacity of response are being increasingly discussed in the climate change
literature (e.g., Tompkins & Adger 2005, Gallopín 2006, Smit & Wandel 2006,
Adger et al. 2007). For instance Gallopín defines the capacity of response as the...
...ability to adjust to a disturbance, moderate potential damage, take advantage of
opportunities, and cope with the consequences of a transformation that occurs
Gallopín 2006: 296
In turn Adger et al. use the term a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y and define it as the...
...ability or potential ... to respond successfully to climate variability and change... [It]
includes adjustments in both behaviour and resources and technologies.
Adger et al. 2007: 727
The different proposed definitions resemble by and large in that they refer to the
objective of successfully weathering the short-term and long-term impacts of climate
change. Aside from that common ground the different conceptualizations in use to
varying degrees additionally consider existing response strategies and measures, as
well as characteristics of adaptness as being part of the capacity of response (cf. e.g.
the above definition by Adger et al.). The practice to use the concept as a container
for various issues related to climate responses also applies to the literature on tourism
and climate change (e.g., Scott & McBoyle 2007) and has rather blurred the concept
than elaborating it.
More recently a number of studies, however, has been performed, focusing at the
determinants of climate responses that means factors and processes enabling or
CAPACITY OF ALPINE WINTER TOURISM BUSINESSES TO ENGAGE IN
CLIMATE RESPONSES
91
inhibiting organizations to plan and implement response strategies and measures
(e.g., Berkhout et al. 2006, Blennow & Person 2009, Hoffmann et al. 2009). These
aspects of organizational responses lead back to the primary meaning of the term
c a p a c i t y as it has been for instance defined by Simpson et al.:
‘Capacity’ is the ability of individuals, institutions and organisations to perform functions
effectively and sustainably; it is not a passive state but part of a continuing process.
Simpson et al. 2008: 3
By focusing on organizational characteristics and processes the studies on the
determinants of organizational responses to climate impacts have opened up a novel
subject in the research on climate responses. This subject allows to draw on and link
to insights and concepts of other research fields, such as organization and
management theory. Given the very few number of studies on the capacity of
business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry to respond to climate
change, the insights of these studies thereby can be augmented by drawing parallels
to other research contexts. This chapter will subsequently refer to these studies and
concepts and provide a synthesis of existing attempts to answer the question to what
extent a tourism business actually has the capacity to plan and implement the
responses that have been suggested in the previous sections of chapter 3.
Chapter 3.5 is structured as follows: First, the concepts and findings of studies on the
determinants of business organizations’ responses to climate impacts are being
summarized. Hoffmann et al.’s recently (2009) published study on the Alpine winter
tourism industry serves as the reference work to which insight from studies on other
industries related and integrated. A second part focuses on organizational processes,
such as organizational learning that have been identified as important aspects of
organizations’ capacities to respond to dynamics in their external environments. The
concepts and findings summarized here emanate from organizational and
management studies and provide a broader theoretical and conceptual underpinning
of the organizational determinants of climate responses. Concluding, the presented
categories and concepts on organizational determinants of climate responses are being
synthesized in tabular form.
92
3.5.1
Concepts and findings on the capacity of businesses to
respond to climate impacts
Several studies address possible enabling or inhibiting factors of business
organizations’ responses to climate impacts (e.g., Fankhauser et al. 1999, Arnell &
Delaney 2006, Berkhout et al. 2006, Bleda & Shackley 2008, Blennow & Person
2009). With respect to the winter tourism industry Hoffmann et al.’s study
represents an initial step to illuminate determinants of corporate climate response
(Hoffmann et al. 2009, and to some extent Wolfsegger et al. 2008).
In their study on corporate responses to climate change in the Alpine winter tourism
industry Hoffmann et al. propose three basic categories of the determinants of a
successful organizational response: the recognition of the n e e d t o r e s p o n d , an
i n c e n t i v e t o r e s p o n d , and the a b i l i t y t o r e s p o n d (Hoffmann et al. 2009).
The three categories trace back to Fankhauser et al. (1999) and involve a number of
organizational characteristics and processes. Given the quantitative, statistical design
of their study, Hoffmann et al. only provide a restricted operationalization of the
categories. However, the categories provide a coherent framework to expand their set
of determinant factors and processes by integrating further findings from the broader
set of studies on enablers and inhibitors of business organizations’ responses to
climate impacts.
Recognition of the need to respond
In line with Hoffmann et al. (2009) and Fankhauser et al. (1999) Arnell & Delaney
suggest that organizations “must be aware of the potential threat of climate change,
and second concerned about potential impacts on the business. Without awareness
there will be no concern, and without concern there will be no adaptation” ( Arnell &
Delaney 2006: 229).
In the stock of literature on organizational responses to climate impacts agreement
exists that learning, gathering and processing of information about climatic stresses,
their local implications as well as response options represent important prerequisites
of the organizational capacity of response (Fankhauser et al. 1999, Yohe & Tol 2002,
Tompkins & Adger 2005, Hoffmann et al. 2009). In addition to ‘learning to
respond’ (Tompkins & Adger 2005) based on credible and scientifically valid
CLIMATE RESPONSES
93
information on climate issues empirical studies on the motivations of businesses to
respond to climate change have revealed the importance of managers’ subjective
beliefs in climate change for the recognition of the need to respond (Bleda &
Shackley 2008, Blennow & Person 2009).
Incentive to respond
Hoffmann et al. have related the incentive for tourism businesses to respond to
climate change closely to their vulnerability and potential economical impacts of
climate change (Hoffmann et al. 2009). However, as the (perceived) vulnerability and
impacts represent core arguments for an organization need to respond to climate
change it seems more plausible to attribute them to the preceding category.
Other authors have identified further aspects that might increase or reduce the
incentive to take response measures. Adger et al. address the aspect of a ‘finite pool of
worry’ in that “other risks may overshadow considerations about the impacts of
climate change and adaptation” (Adger et al. 2007: 735). Trusting in or relying on
other organizations, institution or collective action in general relate to the perceived
individual responsibility for action that can trigger willingness or reluctance for
responses (ibid.). Blennow & Person also propose the organizational managers’
personal beliefs in the own ability to respond as an determinant of the incentive to
respond (Blennow & Person 2009). Their argument corresponds to considerations in
organization theory about the importance of the belief in one’s capabilities for the
ability to successfully cope with environmental change (Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003). In
general organization and management theory emphasize the importance of the
management’s behavioral characteristics (perceptions, bounded rationality,
proactivity, planning horizon, leadership) for the motivation and ability to deal with
environmental dynamics (e.g., Fahey et al. 1981, Ambrosini & Bowman 2009)
Ability to respond
Hoffmann et al. suggest that the ability of winter tourism businesses to plan and
implement response strategies and measures is largely determined by the stock of
resources it holds, such as information and knowledge, human resources,
management culture, financial resources – with the latter particularly important
94
(Hoffmann et al. 2009, also referring to Arnell & Delaney 2006, Berkhout et al.
2006, Smit & Wandel 2006). Their argument is supported by a wide number of
conceptual and analytical analyses in the field of organizational planning with
environmental / climate change (Reilly & Schimmelpfennig 2000, Smit et al. 2001,
Yohe & Tol 2002, Zollo & Winter 2002, Sutcliffe & Vogus 2003, Adger et al. 2007,
Scott & McBoyle 2007, Ambrosini & Bowman 2009). The following set of
interdependent resource types has been suggested to have an impact on the
organizational ability to respond:
Hu m a n c a p i t a l : Access to knowledge and cognitive resources, dependent on the
level of education, prior experiences and information processing abilities (cf. e.g.,
Yohe & Tol 2002, Adger et al. 2007)
Fi n a n c i a l c a p i t a l : Access to financial capital for facilitating learning processes
and information gathering and implementing response measures (e.g., investments,
reserves. See e.g., Reilly & Schimmelpfennig 2000, Zollo & Winter 2002);
S o c i a l c a p i t a l : Access to (resource) networks, critical institutions and decision
making authority, type and intensities of relationships in communities (e.g., Smit et
al. 2001, Adger et al. 2007;
Na t u r a l c a p i t a l : Access to (local) natural resources (e.g. water supply to operate
snowmaking facilities, see e.g., Scott & McBoyle 2007, Scott et al. 2009);
Te c h n o l o g i c a l c a p i t a l : Access to the technological infrastructure, required for
response measures, dependent on available financial capital (see e.g., Smit et al. 2001,
Yohe & Tol 2002).
3.5.2
Concepts and findings in organization and management
theory on the organizational capacity to respond to
environmental change
With respect to organizational responses to the impacts of climate change Berkhout
et al. emphasize that “[o]rganizations, such as business firms, are the primary socioeconomic units within processes of adaptation will take place” (Berkhout et al.
2006: 136). Given the importance that is attached to the dynamics of the
CLIMATE RESPONSES
95
organizational external environment by organization and management theory (Hoyt
et al. 2007, Ambrosini & Bowman 2009, cf. section 3.1.1) several conceptual
approaches exist to illuminate the capacity of organizations to adjust business
resources and operations in an appropriate manner.
The d y n a m i c c a p a b i l i t i e s approach has been developed to explain how firms
sustain competitive advantage in the context of, possibly rapid, environmental change
(Teece et al. 1997, Eisenhardt & Martin 2000, Zollo & Winter 2002, Ambrosini &
Bowman 2009). Teece et al. define dynamic capabilities as “the firm’s ability to
integrate, build, and reconfigure internal and external competences to address rapidly
changing environments” (Teece et al. 1997: 516).
The term ‘dynamic’ refers to the capacity to renew competences so as to achieve congruence
with the changing business environment;
The term ‘capabilities’ emphasized the key role of strategic management in appropriately
adapting, integrating, and reconfiguring internal and external organizational skills,
resources, and functional competences to match the requirements of a changing
environment.
Teece et al. 1997: 515
The dynamic capabilities approach links different schools in organization and
management theory with respect to the significance that internal resources and
capabilities of organizations and the factors and processes in their external
environments imply for organizations’ performance (cf. section 3.1.1). The approach
highlights the salient role that the organizations’ environments play for the
orientation of organizational planning and strategies. However, it also integrates the
ideas of the RBV (cf. 3.1.1: 63), in that competitive advantage is sustained by
particular internal resources and capabilities that allow an organization to adjust to
environment change in the first place (Ambrosini & Bowman 2009).
Organizational learning takes in a central position in the concept of dynamic
capabilities (Zollo & Winter 2002, Berkhout et al. 2006). Learning is understood as
the complementary processes of (tacit) experience accumulation and the active
reflection of (explicit) knowledge (Zollo & Winter 2002). Even though authors like
Zollo & Winter do not presume complete rationality of organizational planning and
decision making they consider processes of learning about environmental dynamics
and potential response options an essential precondition to it. Zollo & Winter have
developed a model of iterative organizational learning cycles. Their concept has been
96
further elaborated by Berkhout et al. who applied it in a qualitative study on
responses of business organizations in the UK house-building and water utility sector
to climate change (Berkhout et al. 2006, cf. figure 3.5). In their model organizational
learning is initiated by external stimuli, such as an organizational problem or
opportunity linked to environmental dynamics that is succeeded by four learning
phases (Zollo & Winter 2002, Berkhout et al. 2006):
S i g n a l i n g a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n : The environmental signal needs to be
recognized as evidence of a novel situation in order to assess whether and to which
extent existing organizational routines7 need to be adjusted. This learning phase can
be inhibited by factors like the “scarcity of evidence, blindness of evidence,
uncertainty in assessing the relevance of evidence” (Berkhout et al. 2006: 138).
E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n a n d s e a r c h : After identifying an environmental stimulus as
relevant for the organizational performance, organizational learning proceeds with
initiating the exploration of alternative ways to respond to the novel situation. Two
mechanisms contribute to this process: tacit experience accumulation by trial-anderror and deliberate, active search (Berkhout et al. 2006).
K n o w l e d g e a r t i c u l a t i o n a n d c o d i f i c a t i o n : The articulation of insights
and knowledge on response alternatives, both orally and in a codified, written form,
facilitates information exchange, constructive confrontations and active learning
processes within in collaborative settings (Zollo & Winter 2002, Berkhout et al.
2006).
Fe e d b a c k a n d i t e r a t i o n : The fourth learning phase follows the enactment of
the response(s). The outcome of the organizational responses are assessed in the face
of the initial environmental stimulus, potential further adjustments are reflected and
implemented. The adjusted organizational routines are the new referential framework
for receiving and assessing further environmental stimuli (Berkhout et al. 2006).
The contributions of organizational learning to an organizations capacity to respond
successfully to environmental dynamics have been addressed in further conceptual
approaches in organization theory (e.g., Staber & Sydow 2002, Lengnick-Hall &
7 The notion of routines has been prominently introduced into organization theory by Nelson &
Winter (1982) and refer to “stable patterns of behavior that characterize organizational reactions
to variegated, internal or external stimuli” (Zollo & Winter 2002: 340, cf. Nelson & Winter
1982).
CLIMATE RESPONSES
97
Beck 2005). Lengnick-Hall & Beck similarly refer to the phases of organizational
learning in their concept of organizational resilience capacity as the “firm’s ability to
understand its current situation and to develop customized responses that reflect that
understanding” (Lengnick-Hall & Beck 2005: 750). In addition to learning steps of
interpreting (uncertain) evidences and conceiving alternative organizational activities
(responses) they stress the importance of organizational resources, particular social
network capital for the organization being able to implement the response options
(ibid.). Staber & Sydow highlight the organizational process of continuous learning
and adjustment as prerequisite to cope with potentially uncertain or unpredictable
environmental change (Staber & Sydow 2002).
Figure 3.5: Schematic of organizational learning cycle
(Source: adapted from Berkhout et al. 2006: 140 and Zollo &
Winter 2002: 345)
The first learning phase of identifying and interpreting environmental stimuli
represents a traditional subject of organization and management theory that have
explored and discussed it along the concept of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c a n n i n g (e.g.,
Aguilar 1967, Fahey et al. 1981, Daft et al. 1988, Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996,
Hoyt et al. 2007). In its broadest meaning, environmental scanning refers to activities
that help organizations to acquire information about the state and trends in their
external environments (Aguilar 1967, Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996). Effective
scanning generates environmental awareness and enables the organization’s
management to move beyond reactive adaptation to a more proactive way of
98
organizational planning (ibid.). With respect of to the effectiveness environmental
scanning in organizations Fahey et al. have developed a typology of different scanning
systems (table 3.8).
Table 3.8: A typology of environmental scanning and forecasting systems
(Source: adapted from Fahey et al. 1981: 33)
Irregular
Periodic
Continuous
Impetus for
scanning
Crisis-initiated
Problem-solving decision Opportunity finding and
/ issue oriented
problem avoidance
Scope of scanning
Specific events
Selected events
Broad range of environmental systems
Temporal nature
Reactive
Proactive
Proactive
Time frame for data Retrospective
Current and retrospective Current and prospective
Time frame for
decision impact
Current and near term
future
Near term
Long term
Organizational
responsibilities
Ad hoc
Shared task
Permanent scanning unit
Not specific
Specific and continuous
but relatively low
Specific continuous and
relatively substantial
Resource allocation
Methodological
sophistication
3.5.3
Simplistic data analyses
Statistical forecasting
and budgetary projecoriented
tions
Many ‘futuristic’ forecasting methodologies
Synthesis: Determinants of the organizational capacity of
response
Table 3.9 provides a literature synthesis on important determinants of organizational
responses to climate impacts. The table integrates the categories and concepts that
have been developed from a general organization and management theoretical
perspective with those that have been developed and applied on the context of
climate responses.
The literature review suggests that the capacity of organizations to successfully
respond to climate change (cf. definitions in the introductory section of chapter 3.5)
depends on more than the mere ability to respond in terms of available resources.
Organizations or their managers respectively, require dynamic capabilities to learn
about beneficial and detrimental climate impacts as well as feasible options to
CLIMATE RESPONSES
99
respond to them. The literature further suggests that the awareness of environmental
challenges can not be equated with the incentive to respond. Organizations and their
management also need to perceive that they are the ones in charge to realize these
options. All in all management characteristics, available organizational resources,
organizational learning and awareness about climatic issues represent interdependent
organizational characteristics (Smit & Wandel 2006) that need to be taken into
account when fathoming how the insights from climate change science translate into
real-world organizational planning and decision making.
Table 3.9: Synthesis: Suggested determinants of organizational responses
Need to respond
Incentive to respond
• ‘Finite pool of worry’ – relevance of other stimuli
gathering and processing
information about climatic
• Perceived and attributed
stresses (environmental scanresponsibilities
ning), their local implications
• Belief in one’s capabilities
and response options
• Management behavioral charresulting in:
acteristics (perceptions,
• Awareness and subjective
bounded rationality,
beliefs about climate impacts
proactivity, planning horizon,
and organizational vulnerableadership)
ility
• Organizational learning and
3.5.4
Ability to respond
• Human capital: knowledge,
•
•
•
•
cognitive resources, education, experiences
Financial capital
Social capital: local (resource)
networks, critical institutions,
decision making authority
Natural capital: (local) natural
resources
Technological capital: technological infrastructure
Specific characteristics of organizational planning in small
firms in the Alpine winter tourism industry
The dynamic nature of the tourism industry and its ability to cope with a range of recent
shocks ... suggests a relatively high climate change adaptive capacity with the tourism
industry overall
Simpson et al. 2008: 17
The above quotation on the flexibility of the tourism industry has been based on the
empirical observation that in general tourism businesses are used to the strong
dynamic of the tourism market (Simpson et al. 2008, cf. section 3.2.1). However, the
capacity of tourism businesses to respond to environment change and to climate
change in particular, is supposed to vary among different business types in the
tourism value chain (Simpson et al. 2008). Whereas for instance large tour operators
100
that are flexible in the choice of tourism products and destinations for their
portfolios, locally embedded tourism businesses are considered to have the least
capacity of response (ibid., Scott et al. 2009). In addition to a relatively lower degree
of flexibility of tourism products local tourism businesses also differ with respect to
their average firm size, compared to trans-regional players.
Figure 3.6: Number and share of different types of accommodation businesses in Austria (2009)
Source: Statistik Austria
The tourism industry in general is constituted to a large extent by small, often family
managed firms (McGregor 1996, Page et al. 1999, Thomas 2000). This also holds
true for the Alpine tourism businesses, particularly for the Eastern Alpine region 8
(Bätzing 2002, for Austria cf. figure 3.6). Morrison defines this type of organization
as follows:
“...a small tourism business is financed by one individual or small group and is directly
managed by its owner(s), in a personalised manner and not through the medium of a
formalised management structure...it is perceived as small, in terms of physical facilities,
production/service capacity, market share and number of employees.”
Morrison 1996: 400, cited in Page et al. 1999: 437
Given that the determinants on organizations potential to respond to climate impacts
that have been suggested by the literature (table 3.9) refer to the structure and
motivation of business management as well as to available resources the specific
characteristics of Alpine tourism firms can be supposed to influence their capacity to
respond to climate change. However, to date no studies exist that address this
interrelation.
8 Personal communications with Nadja Vetters, Joanneum Research, Graz (2008), Ruggero
Schleicher-Tappeser, Permanent Secretariat of the Alpine Convention, Innsbruck (2007)
CLIMATE RESPONSES
101
Table 3.10: Synthesis of organizational characteristics of small tourism firms
(Sources: Jamal & Getz 1995, Carter 1996, McGregor 1996, Yasai-Ardekani & Nystrom 1996, Page et al. 1999, Orser
et al. 2000, Thomas 2000, Lerner & Haber 2001, Tinsley & Lynch 2001, Gibson & Cassar 2002, Danes et al. 2008)
Management Structure
• Centralized decision making
• Strong organization-external and internal dependencies:
• Internal: dependence on family atmosphere
• External: limited customer base, passive position towards economical and market trends
• Informal relationships, communication processes, control systems and task structures (e.g. envir-
onmental scanning)
Business Motivation
• Personalized business objectives
• Frequently non financial motivational factors such as:
• Mere survival / maintaining the business
• Community respect
• Family well-being
• Strong commitment and identification with the business
Accessible Resources
• Resources gaps:
• Financial capital, including restricted staff and time
• Human capital: lack of expertise / training (financial, management, marketing) and prior
business experience
• Informational capital: limited knowledge of the business environment and financial options
• Technological capital: limited access to advanced technology
• Intermingling of business and family resources:
• Family labor: opportunity to deploy unpaid or poor paid labor of family members
• Family assets: risking family assets for investments or securing a loan
• Motivation / emotional capital: provision of emotional support by family members
• Local business and resource networks
An analysis of literature revealed the specific conditions of small firms in and outside
the tourism sector, under which organizational responses have to proceed (table 2.2).
Due to the relative importance of family managed businesses among small tourism
firms, a number of aspects directly relate to the impact of family structures on
running a business. On the other hand business planning in small firms is very much
restricted by external forces, such as banks’ lack of trust in providing loans to small
firms and the rather passive exposure to environment dynamics (McGregor 1996,
Page et al. 1999). A specific feature of business planning in the Alpine tourism
industry is the interdependency of local tourism businesses (e.g., accommodation,
102
gastronomy, sport offers) within the tourism destinations in terms of a local business
network (cf. section 3.2.1: 69). This characteristic implies that the overall tourism
product results from complementary business offers that thereby represent a joint
stock of organizational resources.
4. Research interest
Chapter Contents
4.1 Existing research gaps...................................................................106
Research domain............................................................................................................106
Level of analysis.............................................................................................................107
Real-world context.........................................................................................................107
Knowledge type..............................................................................................................108
Methodological approach................................................................................................109
4.2 Research motivation.....................................................................110
4.3 Research questions........................................................................111
4.4 Sensitizing concepts......................................................................112
RESEARCH INTEREST
105
I
n the preceding chapters a review on the state of research in climate
vulnerability studies (chapter 2) and studies on organizational responses to
climate change (chapter 3) has been presented. The review revealed central
concepts that are currently in use and that help to understand the phenomenon of
climate change from an integrated social- and natural science perspective.
The scientific exploration of the capacity of organizations, like Alpine tourism firms,
to respond to climate impacts has been found to be a key to successful strategies to
cope with the consequences of climate change. Despite its importance the capacity of
response has been found to be still an ill-defined, rather ambiguous concept. This
particularly holds true with respect to the specific characteristics of the Alpine winter
tourism industry. The empirical study in the context of this thesis aims at
contributing to a further, sophisticated understanding of this concept and its societal
relevance.
In this chapter the framework of the empirical study will be presented. Based on the
preceding literature review and synthesis major existing r e s e a r c h g a p s are listed
(chapter 4.1). On their basis the m o t i v a t i o n s a n d o b j e c t i v e s of the empirical
study are developed (chapter 4.2) and the r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s formulated
(chapter 4.3). In order to allow for a proper link between the state of research and
new insights key concepts and categories have been picked up from the existing
research literature (chapter 4.4). These s e n s i t i z i n g c o n c e p t s represent the
heuristic framework for the empirical research.
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CHAPTER 4. RESEARCH INTEREST
4.1 Existing research gaps
The growing insights about unavoidable societal consequences of climate change has
resulted in the ascent of a new domain in climate research that tackles with the
question how societies can adjust their activities in order to reduce their vulnerability
to climate impacts. Organizations, such as firms have been identified as the primary
socio-economic units where responses to climate change are planned and
implemented (Berkhout et al. 2006).
With respect to the Alpine winter tourism industry different catalogues of potential
response measures and strategies have been developed (chapter 3.3, e.g., Scott &
McBoyle 2007, Hoffmann et al. 2009, Scott et al. 2009). However, the question to
what extent Alpine tourism firms actually have the capacity to plan and apply these
responses has been only treated marginally so far. What is more, the research and
literature on the capacity of response in the context of climate change have been
frequently based on very ambiguous concepts of ‘capacity of response’ that
intermingle differing aspects like response measures and strategies, climate adaptness
and the ability to respond (cf. chapter 3.5).
Despite sustained urges to explore the societal preconditions of climate responses
(e.g. Fankhauser et al. 1999, Fraser et al. 2003, Scott & McBoyle 2007), the
discussion on what the ‘capacity of response’ concretely implies is still in its
beginnings. Against the high relevance that is attached to business organizations in
the context of climate responses the following existing research gaps have been
identified:
Research domain
Gap 1:
Lack of knowledge about t he social dimensions of climate
responses, required to complement the mostly naturalscience and engineering perspective on climate vulnerability
Knowledge in the physical and technical aspects of climate change and potential
responses are a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite to understand and facilitate
responses to climate impacts (Rayner & Malone 1998). It remains a crucial research
EXISTING RESEARCH GAPS
107
objective to better understand the social dimensions of climate vulnerability. A recent
study by the Austrian program for climate research AustroClim in a first attempt
identified nearly 300 projects (research and implementation) that are currently
dealing with the issue of climate change adaptation in Austria, with a share of around
12% related to the tourism sector (Haberl et al. 2008). In general these projects tend
to deal with the issue of exposure and economical sensitivity to climate change – the
question how to integrate this knowledge in local economical structures in order to
foster proactive transition processes has remained fairly untouched so far.
Level of analysis
Gap 2:
Lack of knowledge on local and organizational factors of the
capacity of response and implications for sharing
responsibilities to take action
Despite of calls for local climate responses (e.g., by local administration, tourism
businesses and institutions – with respect to the Austrian winter tourism sector,
cf. Breiling 1993) existing concepts on the capacity of response in their majority refer
to macro-societal response levels, such as national or regional policies, beyond
individual (business) organizations. These concepts aim at increasing the potential of
national economies or societies as a whole to cope with the impacts of climate
change. Many are directed at top-down governance strategies (e.g., Fraser et al. 2003,
Tompkins & Adger 2005, Adger et al. 2007). In comparison, relatively few local and
organizational level analyses on determinants of the capacity of response exist to date.
Analyses of this type are required to explore the capabilities and potential resulting
responsibilities for climate responses on different levels and taking into account the
individual organizational characteristics (cf. Dubois & Ceron 2006, Dawson et al.
2009).
Real-world context
Gap 3:
Lack of knowledge on the business specific contributors to
the response capacity of business organizations in the Alpine
108
Except for few studies (e.g., Hoffmann et al. 2009, cf. chapter 3.5) no empirical
insights on the capacity of response in the tourism industry, and the Alpine winter
tourism industry in particular exists to date. Furthermore, the little existing insights
exclusively refer to cable car and ski lift companies. An integrative view on the
destinations business networks, including other firm types (e.g., accommodation,
gastronomy, cf. section 3.2.1: 69) as well as joint resource stocks is absent so far. In
their recently published study on climate responses in the Austrian winter tourism
industry Wolfsegger et al. argue that with respect to climate responses in this sector
there exists a “critical knowledge gap in the literature on climate change and tourism”
(Wolfsegger et al. 2008: 13). They hold that the research on the response capacity in
the tourism sector lacks at least 5-7 years behind the discussions on other sectors
(ibid.). Particularly research needs that have been addressed in the literature comprise
(i) research on the capacity of response is required with respect to tourism firms,
other than cable car and ski lift companies (Hoffmann et al. 2009); (ii) research on
obstacles to long term response strategies (Dubois & Ceron 2006, UFZ 2008).
Knowledge type
Gap 4:
Lack of empirical insights about enablers and inhibitors of
organizational responses to climate impacts
Research is needed to specifically explore factors and processes that facilitate or
inhibit climate responses. Existing research efforts on these determinants of climate
response are still at an early stage and largely conceptual (cf. chapter 3.5). In order to
understand the conditions under which organizational responses do or do not appear,
detailed, organization-level case studies are required that provide real-world insights
to that field (cf. Ambrosini & Bowman 2009, Hoffmann et al. 2009). The
integration and application of so-far theoretical concepts as well as from different
real-world contexts in empirical studies in turn can help to elaborate existing
conceptual frameworks (Berkhout et al. 2006).
EXISTING RESEARCH GAPS
109
Methodological approach
Gap 5:
Lack of insights from qualitative studies to understand the
results from existing quantitative-statistical studies and to
explore novel and unexpected contributors to the
organizational capacity of response
Existing insights on determinants of climate responses are mainly based on
quantitative research approaches (e.g., Bleda & Shackley 2008, Wolfsegger et al.
2008, Hoffmann et al. 2009, exception: e.g., Berkhout et al. 2006). The standardized
results of these studies provide indications about relevant determinants, based on
significant correlations between assumed explanatory variables (e.g., between number
of applied response measures and the financial capacity of a business organization,
cf. Hoffmann et al. 2009). The studies, however, fall short in understanding the
underlying organizational processes and characteristics behind the correlations
(cf. Sharma et al. 2007). Given the novelty of the research field deductive and
standardized approaches furthermore bear the risk of neglecting new and unexpected
variables:
What outsiders (including climate change researchers) deem most important might not be
viewed as most important locally, and finding indicators that reflect local concerns and
decision-making processes is a key challenge.
Næss et al 2006: 225
110
4.2 Research motivation
The central research interest of this thesis is to empirically explore the concept
‘capacity of response’ in the real-world context of business planning in the Alpine
winter tourism industry. Considering the real-world context implies that business
planning with the impacts of climate change needs to be studied in the context of
other planning incentives and from the organization’s inside perspective on climate
change. Based on the existing research gaps that have been identified and outlined in
the previous section the following motivations are defined for the empirical research
domain of the thesis:
•
Exploring the social science perspective on climate change, integrating it with the
natural science perspective and knowledge from climatological research;
•
Understanding the conditions for climate responses from an inside-perspective of
business planning, facilitated by existing concepts and knowledge, allowing to
elaborating them on the basis of empirical evidence;
•
Developing an integrative view on the capacity of winter tourism businesses to
respond to climate change that considers relevant business groups and proves
sensitive to resource dependencies among the destinations’ business networks;
•
Providing insights that – besides their scientific contributions – also prove valuable
in the contexts of practical application, e.g. by identifying starting points for local
capacity building in the Alpine tourism industry, in order to facilitate for bottomup responses to climate change.
The defined motivations provide the framework for the formulation of the research
question and the design of the methodological approach of the thesis.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
111
4.3 Research questions
Based on the thesis’ leading question and the identified existing research gaps and the
defined research motivation the following research questions are formulated:
Q1
Through which ways can the phenomenon of climate change be understood
from the real-world perspectives of business planning in the Alpine winter
tourism industry?
Q 1.1 What business functions do different existing
organizational responses to climate change fulfill?
or
proposed
Q 1.2 How are climate phenomena integrated into business planning of local
business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry?
Q 1.3 How are different meanings of the local climate for business planning in
the Alpine winter tourism industry formed?
Q2
What factors and processes enable or inhibit local business organizations in the
Alpine winter tourism industry to integrate current and future impacts of
temporary climate crises and long-term shifts of mean conditions of their local
climate into their business planning?
Q 2.1 Through which factors and organizational processes can differences and
dominant patterns of local business organizations in the Alpine winter
tourism industry in responding to climate impacts be understood?
Q 2.2 How do organizational resources and capabilities contribute to the
integration of current and future impacts of temporary climate crises
and long-term shifts of mean conditions of their local climate into
business planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry?
Q3
How do the response-factors and categories relate to the capacity of business
organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry to respond to current and
future impacts of local climate change?
Q 3.1 How can these insights be integrated into an elaboration of the ‘capacity
of response’ concept?
Q 3.2 What can be learned from these insights for building organizational
capacity of response in the Alpine tourism business?
112
4.4 Sensitizing concepts
In order to be able to link the empirical research of the formulated research questions,
concepts have been derived from the literature review on climate impacts on the
Alpine winter tourism industry and responses of business organizations to these
impacts (chapters 2 and 3). These concepts represent sensitizing concepts of for the
empirical study that means...
...concepts which give the researcher a “general sense of references and guidance in
approaching empirical instances ... suggest directions along which to look ... and rest on a
general sense of what is relevant.”
Flick 2009: 431 quoting Blumer 1970: 58
The sensitizing concepts provide a heuristics to structure the empirical data inquiry
and analysis as well as the selection of research groups (Flick 2009). One set of
concepts are drawn from climate vulnerability studies (chapter 2). The use of criteria
on climate exposure (climatological criteria) and climate sensitivity (socio-economic
criteria) is mainly aimed to identify research groups to which the third determinant
of climate vulnerability, the capacity of response that was to be researched, could be
assumed to represent a relevant aspect. A second set of concept is derived from
studies on organizational responses to environmental / climate change (chapter 3).
This set of concepts serves as heuristics to suggest possible explanations to observed
empirical phenomena as well as to allow to link empirical insights to prior knowledge
on the research topic.
The sensitizing concepts are compiled with a brief explanations in tabular form
(tables 4.1 referring to concepts of chapter 2 and 4.2, referring to concepts of
chapter 3). Detailed descriptions can be found in the respective text passages of the
preceding chapters that have been indicated in the tables. The explicit statement of
the sensitizing concepts of the empirical study is also being done in order to allow to
reconstruct to what extent the empirical insights have been inspired by prior
knowledge and to what extent they represent novel contributions to the research
domain.
SENSITIZING CONCEPTS
113
Table 4.1: Sensitizing concepts on climate vulnerability and climate impacts
Concepts
Relevance of the concept for the empirical study
Text location
Chapter 2.1,
• Phenomena of climate change and resulting impacts on
Phenomena of
climate change and different time scales that are assumed to are unequally repres- figure 2.4: 23
ented in business planning in the Alpine winter tourism
resulting impacts
sector.
Climate
vulnerability
Chapter 1.1:
is considered to be an aggregated indicator of the relevancy of 5
climate change for the business planning in particular tourism
firms.
• The degree of organizational vulnerability to climate change
Table 4.2: Sensitizing concepts on organizational responses to environmental / climate change
Concepts
Organizational
external environment
Relevance of the concept for the empirical study
• The organizational external environment is considered an
useful concept to analyze climatic triggers to business planning in the context of other external incentives.
Text location
Section 3.1.1:
62
Model of organiza- • The model of organizational responses to climate change
tional responses to
represents a systematization of the current state of literature
climate impacts
on this issue.
• The model differentiates between strategies and measures to
respond short-term impacts linked to occurrence of climate
extremes and to long-term impacts linked to shifting climate
means.
Section 3.3.1,
table 3.5: 79
Capacity of
response
Chapter 3.5:
90
• The organizational capacity of response is considered to
represent the organizational conditions to plan and implement response strategies and measures
• It is therefore delimited from concepts of organizational
responses to climate change
Categories of
determinants of
the organizational
capacity of
response
• The suggested categories of determinants of the organizational Section 3.5.3,
Local business
network
• The notion of a local business network implies that the
Section 3.2.1,
performance of tourism firms is not only determined by the
table 3.2: 70
individual organizations’ resources and capabilities – as
and section
suggested by the resource based view on management (RBV). 3.5.1: 94
• The aspect of inter-organizational dependencies and network
resources are considered to be an important basis for business
planning in the Alpine winter tourism industry.
Organizational
planning in small
firms
• The specific characteristics (resources, division of tasks and
capacity of response that have been synthesized from the
current state of research are considered to provide a plausible
and consistent heuristic to guide the empirical analysis.
responsibilities) of small firms as the prevalent business type
in the Alpine tourism industry are considered to have an
impact on the conditions to plan and implement response
strategies and measures.
table 3.9: 99
Section 3.5.4:
99,
table 3.10:
101
5. Methodology
Chapter Contents
5.1 Rationale: Embedded qualitative case study analysis.....................118
5.1.1 Rationale of the embedded case study approach................................................118
5.1.2 Rationale for the qualitative research approach..................................................120
5.2 Sampling of the cases....................................................................122
5.2.1 Rationale............................................................................................................122
5.2.2 Sampling process................................................................................................123
5.3 Inquiry of the empirical data........................................................126
5.3.1 Rationale............................................................................................................126
5.3.2 Steps of inquiry..................................................................................................126
5.4 Analysis of the empirical data.......................................................129
5.4.1 Rationale............................................................................................................129
5.4.2 Steps of analysis..................................................................................................129
5.5 Structuring and documenting the case study results......................134
METHODOLOGY
117
T
he previous chapter has disclosed that the current research on the societal
capacity to respond to climate impacts frequently lacks to take the inside
perspective of the business organization into consideration. The
formulated research interest of this study focuses on the Alpine winter tourism
industry in order to explore the meaning of climate phenomena from the angle of
managing businesses that, among other factors, depend on the local climate.
In this chapter the methodological implications of the research interest and the
related research questions are outlined. The rationales of the single methodological
steps are formulated as well as how they contribute to the overall research framework.
At the offset the r a t i o n a l e o f q u a l i t a t i v e e m b e d d e d c a s e s t u d i e s as the
methodological framework concept is explained. Subsequently the criteria for the
s a m p l i n g o f t h e c a s e s are developed based on the research interest and on the
conceptual chapters of the thesis. In line with the qualitative research approach the
criteria are applied in terms of a theoretical, purposive sampling process. The section
on the i n q u i r y o f t h e e m p i r i c a l d a t a addresses the different sources of data
that have been integrated into the case studies as well as how this data is collected
according to Witzel’s approach of problem-centered interviews (Witzel 1985, Witzel
2000) and processed for further analysis. The rationale and the process of a n a l y s i s
o f t h e e m p i r i c a l d a t a that draws upon Flick’s approach of thematic coding, are
explained in the subsequent section (Flick 2009). The final section of this chapter
explains the s t r u c t u r e a n d d o c u m e n t a t i o n o f t h e c a s e s t u d y r e s u l t s ,
including the aspect of anonymity of the studied cases and thereby provides the
conceptual framework of the result chapter of the thesis.
118
CHAPTER 5. METHODOLOGY
5.1 Rationale: Embedded qualitative case study analysis
The empirical study has been conducted by the use of an embedded case study
methodology for which a qualitative research approach has been designed. The
methodological design has been developed against the background of the defined
research gaps on which the research questions were based on (cf. chapter 4). In short,
the research methodology was to yield empirical evidence that contributes to an
•
u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s under which business responses to
climate impacts do or do not occur from an...
•
i n s i d e p e r s p e c t i v e of business organizations, considering its specific resources
and capabilities in order to...
•
e x p l o r e a c o n c e p t o f t h e c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e on the level of business
organizations of the Alpine winter tourism industry.
The three criteria are linked to the objective of the study to contribute to building
societal capacity to respond to climate change in terms of a bottom up approach that
aims at empowering individuals – in contrast to prior studies that focused on the
(top-down) political-institutional conditions (cf. chapter 4.2).
The two methodological approaches e m b e d d e d c a s e s t u d i e s and the
q u a l i t a t i v e r e s e a r c h a p p r o a c h have been linked in order to contribute to this
objective. The rationales behind the use of these approaches in the study are briefly
outlined in the following sections.
5.1.1
Rationale of the embedded case study approach
In line with Yin a case study is understood as...
...an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life
context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly
evident.
Yin 2003: 13
Given the novelty of the research field ’capacity of response in the context of climate
change’ and particularly of the perspective on business planning in the Alpine winter
RATIONALE: EMBEDDED QUALITATIVE CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
119
tourism sector (cf. chapter 4.1), the case study approach has been found well-suited
to explore this research field and to facilitate novel theory building in this field
(cf. Eisenhardt 1989). All in all the methodological design of this study followed Yin’s
rationale for the application of case studies:
In general, case studies are the preferred strategy when “how” or “why” questions are being
posed, when the investigator has little control over events, and when the focus is on a
contemporary phenomenon within some real-life context.
Yin 2003: 1
In case studies defined entities – the cases – are at the center of the research interest.
Albeit they are studied along with their case environments the single cases in the first
place are appreciated in their individuality (Scholz & Tietje 2002, Yin 2003).
In the applied e m b e d d e d c a s e s t u d y a p p r o a c h the analyzed cases are
conceptualized in different, interrelated levels and subunits (box 5.1, cf. Eisenhardt
1989, Yin 2003). These correspond to the different levels of business planning that
have been identified for the Alpine winter tourism industry: the business planning of
c a s e - o r g a n i z a t i o n s , local tourism firms (e.g., cable car operator,
accommodation), is embedded into the local business and resource network of the
c a s e - d e s t i n a t i o n s . The network is shaped by the interplay between local
tourism firms, local tourism associations as well as local authorities
(cf. section 3.2.1: 69, table 3.2). The embedded case study approach allowed to focus
Cases in this study are conceptualized on two, interdependent levels:
(i) C a s e - o r g a n i z a t i o n s : business organizations that are active players
within the local tourism economy of Alpine winter tourism destinations.
Internally the case-organizations are shaped by their organizational structure
and resources, among them the managers and staff in charge of running the
organizational processes.
(ii) Ca s e - d e s t i n a t i o n s : These destinations represent the caseorganizations’ direct business environments that are characterized by
geographical-climatic factors and the interdependencies of local business
and resource networks.
Box 5.1: Conception of ‘cases’ in the empirical study
120
on the individual conditions for business planning in the tourism firms, as well as to
understand the role of the superordinate level, including business planning in other
firms, for the planning and implementations of business responses to climate change.
The embedded approach has been complemented by a c o m p a r a t i v e a p p r o a c h
that has been applied both on the level of case-organizations and on the level of casedestinations. The cross-case comparisons allowed both to extend the understanding
of the case-organization by contrasting it with others and to gain insights about the
contextual conditions of the cases by identifying similarities among the cases
(cf. Eisenhardt 1989, Flick 2009).
In contrast to earlier research on the organizational capacity of response in the
context of climate change, the choice of the embedded case study approach helped to
identify and understand the challenges of climate responses from the perspective of
the business organizations and their proximal business network rather than from a
global, macro-societal perspective that has been mainly brought forward in past
contributions. The juxtaposition of cases in this respect has been considered a crucial
precondition to facilitate the generation of novel theory that Eisenhardt (1989)
points out as a particular strength of case studies. She emphasizes that “the idea
behind these cross-case searching tactics is to force investigators to go beyond initial
impressions” (Eisenhardt 1989: 541).
5.1.2
Rationale for the qualitative research approach
The application of a qualitative research methodology allowed to reconstruct the
subjective viewpoints on climate change (cf. Flick 2009). Thereby the study’s
epistemology has been grounded in the tradition of c o n s t r u c t i v i s m and
s y m b o l i c i n t e r a c t i o n i s m that assume “that human beings act towards things
on the basis of the meaning that the things have for them” (Blumer 1969: 2, cited in
Flick 2009: 58, cf. Charmaz 2000).
The research approach has been qualitative in that it sought to understand and
reconstruct ‘local practices’ (cf. Flick 2009: 12) – namely business planning with
climate impacts – from the angle of the cases under study rather than predicting their
practices exclusively by a set of preselected theoretical models (ibid.). The use of a
RATIONALE: EMBEDDED QUALITATIVE CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
121
qualitative approach aimed at empirically grounded theory building that “seeks to
define conditional statements that interpret how subjects construct their realities”
(Charmaz 2000: 524). Charmaz emphasizes that in spite of the ambition to interpret
empirical evidence from the perspective of the subject under study, eventually theory
building mirrors the constructs of the researcher (Charmaz 2000). From the
perspective of c o n s t r u c t i v i s t g r o u n d e d t h e o r y it is neither possible nor
reasonable to completely exclude prior knowledge and theoretical constructs.
Therefore the explicitation of sensitizing concepts as “points of departure from which
to study the data” has been suggested (ibid.: 515, cf. Flick 2009). The reference to the
sensitizing concepts of this study (cf. chapter 4.4) allowed for linking the inductive
data interpretation processes with the current state of research and building on prior
insights on the research topic.
As a result of the methodological reflections, illustrated in the previous two sections,
the inquiry and analysis of empirical data on the cases have been designed according
to Flick’s approach of thematic coding (Flick 2009). The approach aims at
empirically grounded theory building that is based on cross-case comparisons
(cf. section 5.1.1) that have been conducted in the first place. It allowed for obtaining
insights into the individual approaches to business planning with climate impacts as
well as for learning about the contextual conditions for business planning through
contrasting and comparisons of the embedded case studies.
122
5.2 Sampling of the cases
5.2.1
Rationale
In line with the qualitative research approach a theoretical, purposive case sampling
approach has been applied (Eisenhardt 1989, Flick 2009). The sampling of cases has
been guided by the relevancy of the study’s thematic domain – organizational
responses to short-term and long-term impacts of climate change – for the potential
cases. The key criterion of r e l e v a n c y has been operationalized on the basis of the
climatological and socio-economic considerations and concepts that have been
brought forward in chapter 2 of this thesis: (i) the s e n s i t i v i t y to climate change,
operationalized by the economic dependency of the tourism business on a specific
local climate (cf. section 2.4.1); (ii) the past and projected e x p o s u r e to local climate
impacts – in this respect the altitude and the climate zone represent solid
operationalizations (cf. section 2.4.2). The a c c e s s i b i l i t y of socio-economic data
on the cases and past as well as prospective data on the local climates represented an
associated criterion for case sampling.
Moreover, the process of case sampling has been designed to meet four objectives that
emanate from the chosen methodological approach of comparative case studies: First,
sampling has been “oriented to the groups whose perspectives on the issue seem to be
most instructive for analysis, and which therefore are defined in advance” in order to
allow for comparative studies (Flick 2009: 318). Thus case sampling has been
purposive, based on general heuristic of prior theoretical sensitizing while accessing
the field of study (cf. chapter 4.4). Secondly, insights about the conditions under
which organizational responses to climate impacts do or do not take place were
expected to be attained through learning from the comparison and differences among
cases. Therefore the sampling process has been oriented at the criteria of relevance
rather than representativeness within a population (cf. ibid.). Thirdly, in order to
allow for an intensive examination of the cases and their interrelations and
considering available resources of the study priority was given to depth of analysis
rather than width of samples (cf. ibid.). Against the assumption that the local tourism
SAMPLING OF THE CASES
123
economy functions as an interdependent system of individual business organizations
(cf. chapter 4.4, table 4.2), the sampling process had to meet the fourth objective that
is to include cases that are mutually dependent by means of a local economical
network in a tourism destination.
5.2.2
Sampling process
Cases have been sampled among Austrian winter tourism destinations as an
interrelated twofold, criteria based procedure: On the one hand two case-destinations
have been selected, based on three criteria (box 5.2)
The case-destinations have been selected on the basis of three criteria:
(i) a joint, high dependency of the local economy on the winter tourism
business (climate sensitivity), based on the assumption that climate
change is an issue of general economic relevance in these destinations
(cf. section 2.4.1);
(ii) contrasting observed and projected trends in local climatic values,
relevant to the winter tourism business (climate exposure), in the
context of a general above-global-average temperature increase in the
Alpine region (cf. section 2.3.2);
(iii) contrasting tourist capacities and quality standards, based on the
assumption that the sizes of organizational and their quality segments
imply differing management practices (cf. section 2.4.2: 54).
Box 5.2: Criteria for the selection of case-destinations
The selection has been performed with respect to the joint criterion of high climate
sensitivity of local tourism businesses, based on a recent study about Austrian tourism
destinations on the very issue (Prettenthaler et al. 2009 published in ÖHV 2008). At
the same time the selection of the case-destinations drew on past and prospective
124
climate data9 as well as on socio-economical data10. The assessment of the data
yielded in the identification of destinations with contrasting conditions in their local
climate as well as differing capacities and quality levels of their overall tourism
product.
On the other hand case-organizations in these destinations have been sampled that in
total covered different pre-defined groups of organizations, involved in the local
tourism economies (cf. Eisenhardt 1989). In line with the embedded case study
approach, two groups of organizations have been sampled (table 5.1). Besides local
business organizations also local network organizations, including local authorities,
are integrated due to their strategic position between the local actors and their
influende on the local social-economic business environments (cf. Næss et al 2006).
Table 5.1: Groups of organizations involved in the local winter tourism sector
(cf. table 3.2: 70)
Local business organizations
•
•
•
Accommodation businesses
Gastronomy businesses
Winter sport service providers
• Cable car and ski lift operators
• Ski school and ski rental businesses
Local network organizations
•
•
•
Local authorities
Tourism associations
Destination management organizations
This sampling procedure allowed for maximal contrasts with respect to size and
quality their products (assuming differing stocks of available organizational resources)
as well as to ownership and management structure (assuming different degrees of
specification and responsibility sharing within the organization, cf. chapter 4.4). The
criteria guided case sampling has been conducted by an ex-ante desk-analysis of the
respective local tourism economies. Initial interviews have been conducted with key
players of local tourism in the destinations that were organized in local network
organizations (table 5.1) and could provide an inside perspective about the local
tourism economy. Based on these interviews further cases have been selected to
complement the sample (‘snowballing’, cf. Flick 2009). In total, the embedded case
studies base on a sample of 20 case-organizations whose management activities in the
9 Sources: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Austria, (ZAMG), Prettenthaler et
al. 2009
10 Sources: Joanneum Research, Statistics Austria (Östat), municipal web pages
SAMPLING OF THE CASES
125
face of climate change have been analyzed within two case-destinations (10
organizations each, cf. table 6.1: 138).
126
5.3 Inquiry of the empirical data
5.3.1
Rationale
In order to facilitate empirically grounded theory construction (cf. Charmaz 2000)
with respect to the formulated research interest, the empirical evidences to be
inquired had to fulfill a set of criteria. The evidence had to allow for disclosing the
subjective theories of case agents with regard to business planning and for
understanding the role of local climate for business planning in connection to other
intra- or extra-organizational incentives. Parallel to the relevance of the subjective
perspectives, the evidence was required to link to the sensitizing concepts that
emanate from the prior insights on the research topic (cf. chapter 4.4). Finally the
evidence on the cases had to allow for cross-case comparisons to be able to develop
insights beyond the level of the single cases.
Due to the prominent role that managers in the local tourism industry hold in
business planning (cf. table 4.2: 113), it appeared reasonable to put the managers’
perspectives in the center of data inquiry for the case studies. Yet, the inquiry of
additional evidence on the cases has been considered promising to develop a multiperspective vision in understanding the cases (cf. Eisenhardt 1989).
5.3.2
Steps of inquiry
Two classes of evidence about the studied cases have been inquired: data has been
collected by the means of semi-standardized interviews with managers of local
tourism businesses, tourism associations in the destinations as well as the heads of the
municipalities. The semi-structured interviews have been fully transcribed 11. The
transcripts represent the primary data source for the case studies. It has been
complemented by supplemental empirical evidence from the field as well as by
11 Dependent on the lengths of interview times the transcripts contain between 4.100 and 15.000
words or 11 to 33 pages of the present page format with a mean of 16 pages.
INQUIRY OF THE EMPIRICAL DATA
127
business documents and statistics, collected during the field work as well as through
desk research (see table 5.2 below).
Table 5.2: Sources of empirical evidence
Main data
•
Full transcripts of the semi-structured interviews with case agents
Supplemental data
•
•
•
•
Interview postscripts and memos
Minutes of short interviews and informal
talks with case agents
Business figures (Austrian firm register)
Documents (business chronicles, business
plans)
The design of the interviews has been based upon Witzel’s approach of the
p r o b l e m - c e n t e r e d i n t e r v i e w, an interview approach that is aimed at
grounded theory building (Witzel 1985, Witzel 2000).
In accordance to Witzel, a semi-standardized interview approach has been chosen
that was based on an interview guide of mainly open questions and that has been
applied flexibly within the different interview situations. The interview guide (see
chapter A.3: 324 in the annex of this thesis) has been adapted to the different
organizational backgrounds of the interviewees (tourism businesses, tourism
associations, local administration). The guide served four main objectives: First of all
it has been designed in a way “to support the narrative string developed by the
interviewee” (Flick 2009: 162). Secondly, the guide was used to inspire the
interviewee to resume her or his narrative string, inter alia by the introduction of new
topics, in case (s)he got stuck (Witzel 2000). The latter also served the third objective
to link the interviewees’ subjective theories to the sensitizing concepts of the study,
constituted by ex-ante knowledge about the topic of the study (ibid., drawing on
Blumer 1954). This link to the study’s initial heuristic framework facilitated the
comparability of the interview analyses, the fourth objective (Witzel 2000).
The interviews have been conducted in summer of 2008 which followed a particular
warm winter season in the Austrian Alps that had fueled the public discussion and
media coverage on the phenomenon of climate change. In order to reduce the
potential social desirability bias (Nederhof 1985, Fisher 1993) on the individual
positioning towards the issue of climate change, the topic has only been directly
introduced in a neutral, casual way at a later stage of the interview in case the
128
interviewee had not addressed it by him- or herself. In general particular attention has
been given to allow the interviewees to unfold their narratives, disclosing their
subjective theories in which their business planning processes were embedded and
what role local climate change played within the planning. In that way the interview
guide has been used in a “case-sensitive” way (cf. Flick 2009: 134) in that the timing
and specification of the interview questions has been adapted to the narratives string
and the subjective chains of associations.
The semi-standardized interviews have been complemented by a short questionnaire
on socio-economical data on the respective case-organizations (see chapter A.3: 327).
By separating the interview part basing on qualitative questions from the part
focusing on standardized, quantitative data, the openness of the core part of the
interviews could be enhanced (cf. Witzel 2000).
ANALYSIS OF THE EMPIRICAL DATA
129
5.4 Analysis of the empirical data
5.4.1
Rationale
The analysis of the empirical data has been based on Flick’s approach of thematic
coding (Flick 2009) and Eisenhardt’s approach on building theories from case study
research (Eisenhardt 1989). The approaches emanate from the grounded theory
methodology and are constituted by an iterative multi-stage procedure, involving
intense analyses of the studies case units as well as cross-case comparisons (ibid.).
The case-organization has been defined as the central analytic unit to which
grounded theory building has been directed. In order to represent the embedded,
interdependent structure of business planning in the studied tourism destinations, as
well as to allow for comparability among the studies of case-organizations, the
thematic coding approach involves cross-case comparisons (cf. section 5.1.1: 119).
These comparisons formed the basis for developing insights about the various
interrelated thematic domains that drive and impede organizational responses to
climate change on the personal level of the manager, the organizational level as well as
on the level of the business environment.
5.4.2
Steps of analysis
Following Flick’s approach of t h e m a t i c c o d i n g the analysis of the empirical
material has been designed as a multi-stage procedure. In that ways the analysis has
been conducted in iterative circles between single case studies and cross-case
comparisons (cf. Flick 2009).
The interview transcripts represented the primary empirical data on which the
organizational case studies have been based (see table 5.2: 127). The objective of the
analysis of the interview transcripts was to preserve meaningful relations that link the
interviewee to the study’s research area ‘business planning with climate change’. The
130
organizational case studies have been conducted in two steps: Initially those parts 12 of
the transcripts have been analyzed in-depth in which the interviewees explicitly
referred to their constructs of climate change and how it related to their personal
business planning. These interview parts were considered as the core of the interview
narratives where the personal, organizational and contextual enablers and inhibitors
of climate responses converged. Particular focus has been given to narratives about
measures and strategies that already had been implemented by the businesses in order
to deliberately respond to climate change. As the number of these measures and
strategies appeared to be limited also parts of the transcripts have been taken into
account in this analytical step that referred either to non-deliberate responses in
accordance to figure 3.4 (page 83) or to deliberate responses that had been taken
under consideration, but had not been implemented yet.
Figure 5.1: Process of empirical data integration
In a second step the remainders of the interview transcripts have been analyzed. This
analysis provided further contextual information about the personal business
planning with climate change and helped to link this issue to the general conditions
of business planning within the case-organizations. Against the background of
limited resources this proceeding allowed an in-depth analysis for the full bandwidth
12 These parts comprised between one and four pages or the present page format.
131
of business cases, including cross-case analyses, and embedding the findings into a
general picture of business planning (figure 5.1).
The analysis of the empirical data has been based on the thematic coding scheme by
Flick that emanates from the grounded theory methodology (Flick 2009: 318ff.). The
applied analytic approach aimed at the formulation of hypotheses about enablers and
inhibitors of organizational climate responses that served as a basis to draw
conclusions with respect to an empirically grounded ‘capacity of response’ concept.
The data analysis has been performed in two domains: (i) analyzing within-case data
and (ii) searching for cross-case patterns (cf. Eisenhardt 1989).
The w i t h i n - c a s e a n a l y s e s resulted in the identification and codification of
empirically grounded categories of organizational structural and planning
characteristics that allowed to formulate initial hypotheses on enablers and inhibitors
of business responses to climate impacts. The within-case analyses additionally
resulted in the formulation of case profiles on business planning with climate change
that served as basis for further cross-case comparisons. The case profiles exemplify the
individual and subjective approaches of different types of business organizations to
cope with current and future challenges that emanate from their local climate. In the
elaboration of the case profiles supplemental data sources (see table 5.2: 127) have
been consulted in order to amplify the picture beyond the perspectives of the
individual managers.
Corresponding to Flick’s approach the empirical data for each case has been openly
coded by using i n - v i v o c o d e s , taken from the interviewees’ expressions as well as
c o n s t r u c t e d c o d e s , borrowed by the sensitizing concepts of the study (cf. Flick
2009, chapter 4.4). The coding procedure has been guided by a set of analytical
questions to support the identification of in-vivo codes and categories on business
planning with climate change (see table 5.3 below). It was performed line-by-line “to
remain attuned to ... [the] subjects’ views of their realities” (Charmaz 2000: 515) as
well as to facilitate the understanding of the relations between the four categories of
the analytical questions (cf. Charmaz 2003, cited in Flick 2009: 316). The coding of
the core narratives have been added by hand on hardcopies whereas the subsequent
analysis of the further transcript material has been supported by the use of the
MaxQDA software. In the second, the selective coding step thematic domains and
categories (Flick 2009) of organizational structural and planning characteristics have
132
been developed for the organizational cases as a basis to formulate hypotheses about
enablers and inhibitors of organizational climate responses. This step has been
facilitated by the use of the mind-mapping software Fr e e m i n d .
Table 5.3: Guiding questions of the coding procedure
(Source: adapted from Flick 2009: 320 who refers to Strauss & Corbin’s coding paradigm, cf. Flick 2009: 311)
Conditions:
What has led to or what has impeded a
climate response? Background? Course?
I n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n a c t o r, o r g a n i z a tion and business environment:
Who acted? What happened?
Str ategies and tactics:
Which ways of dealing with climate
phenomena, e.g., avoidance, adaptation?
Consequences:
What were the consequences of the applied
strategies and tactics? What changed?
S e a r c h i n g f o r c r o s s - c a s e p a t t e r n s has been performed to reformulate and
stabilize the initial hypotheses on enablers and inhibitors of business responses to
climate impacts. Through the cross-case comparisons and contrasts the coding of the
single cases could be refined, the comparability between the cases could be increased
as well as the topical range of individual approaches towards business planning with
climate change be depicted. Following the logic of Flick’s approach the data analysis
has been conducted in iterative interpretative circles (figure 5.2): The identification
and selective coding of categories of organizational structural and planning
characteristics facilitated the grouping of cases along these categories that allowed to
identify dominant patterns of business planning with climate impacts. Such
dominant patterns refer to common phenomena among a group of cases as well as to
salient, singular phenomena that provide a sharp contrast to other cases. Based on
these patterns, hypotheses on enablers and inhibitors of business responses to climate
impacts have been (re-)formulated that again facilitated a reformulation of categories
and codes to initiate the next, elaborated interpretation cycle. The iterative coding
and interpretation cycles were stopped at the point of theoretical saturation, when
“continuing coding [did] not lead to new theoretical insights” (ibid.: 436).
Figure 5.2: Recursive process of data coding and interpretation
133
134
5.5 Structuring and documenting the case study results
Following the methodological rationale of the case studies, the results have been
structured on two analytical levels: In chapter A.1 in the annex of this thesis
(pages 260ff.) the profiles on the studied case-organizations and the case-destinations
are presented. These results provide individual illustrations about how planning with
climate change appears in real-world settings – from the perspectives of business
organizations – and how intra- and extra-organizational conditions shape
organizational responses to climate phenomena.
Given the small size of the studied destinations and the intense personal contacts
among their firms the detailed case-organizations’ would easily disclose the identity of
the respective organization its manager(s), even if made anonymous. Therefore, both
the profiles of case-organizations and the case-destinations in which the caseorganizations are active have been made anonymous. That allowed for a detailed
representation of the single cases without violating personal rights of the interviewees.
The insights that have been developed in the embedded, comparative case studies are
developed and synthesized in the following chapter 6 of this thesis. The results of the
case studies represent the basis for an empirically grounded elaboration and redefinition of the c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e concept on the level of business
organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry.
6. Results of the case studies
Chapter Contents
6.1 Managers’ awareness of the business implications of climate change
....................................................................................................142
6.1.1 Constructs of the exposure to climate change....................................................143
Learning from personal experiences.................................................................................145
Learning from media reports..........................................................................................146
Learning from scientific evidence....................................................................................147
Integrating personal experiences and external evidence......................................................148
6.1.2 Constructs of the economic sensitivity to local climate conditions.....................151
Learning from past economic impacts..............................................................................151
Assessing the present and future climate adaptness............................................................151
6.1.3 Realm of considered business options to respond to climate change..................152
Iterative and reflexive learning about climate impacts and organizational responses...........153
Assessing the organizational ability to respond to climate impacts......................................154
Identifying business options to respond to climate change..................................................155
Integrating climate responses into business planning.........................................................155
6.2 Managers’ commitment to respond to climate change..................157
6.2.1 Priorities of investment incentives......................................................................157
Identifying and assessing investment incentives.................................................................158
Balancing trade-offs and co-benefits of different investment strategies................................158
6.2.2 Responsibility to act...........................................................................................161
6.2.3 Planning horizon................................................................................................163
6.3 Organizational resources and room for maneuver.........................167
6.3.1 Information capital............................................................................................167
6.3.2 Human capital...................................................................................................173
6.3.3 Financial capital.................................................................................................175
6.3.4 Social capital......................................................................................................177
136
CHAPTER 6. RESULTS OF THE CASE STUDIES
6.3.5 Decision autonomy............................................................................................181
6.4 Synopsis – enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate change in
the case-organizations...................................................................184
6.4.1 Awareness...........................................................................................................185
Constructs of the exposure to climate change....................................................................185
Constructs of the sensitivity to climate impacts.................................................................186
Realm of considered response options...............................................................................186
6.4.2 Commitment.....................................................................................................187
Priorities of investment incentives...................................................................................187
Responsibility to implement climate responses...................................................................188
Planning horizon...........................................................................................................188
6.4.3 Resources............................................................................................................189
Information capital........................................................................................................189
Human capital..............................................................................................................189
Financial capital...........................................................................................................190
Social capital.................................................................................................................190
Decision autonomy........................................................................................................191
RESULTS OF THE CASE STUDIES
137
T
he empirical case studies open up the real-world context in which
responses to climate change do or do not occur. In this real world context
climate responses represent only one of many issues that managers of
tourism businesses are dealing with in their planning activities. In some cases impacts
of climate change represent co-drivers of business innovations. In other cases they
compete for limited organizational resources with other planning incentives. This
embedded picture of business planning with local climate change allows to identify
the factors that drive and inhibit organizational responses to climate change. These
factors represent the basis to contribute to a realistic picture about the capacity of
tourism businesses to respond to climate change as well as their limits to do so.
The results represent a synopsis of the lessons learned from the embedded case studies
and contain both descriptive and analytic components. The descriptive findings
presented in this chapter base on an integration of the individual case profiles that
have been compiled (cf. chapter A.1). They illuminate through which ways the
phenomenon of climate change is understood from the perspective of managing a
tourism business and integrated into business planning (cf. research question Q 1:
111). Moreover, the case profiles add real-world illustrations to the conceptual debate
on organizational responses to climate change by the means of individual
organizational samples. The case-profiles provide the basis for an analysis of the
organizational planning behavior with respect to the conditions that enable or
impede responses to climate change (cf. research question Q 2). The findings of this
type again provide the basis to draw conclusions with respect to the c a p a c i t y o f
r e s p o n s e concept (cf. research question Q 3).
The embedded case studies base on a sample of 20 case-organizations whose
management activities in the face of climate change have been analyzed within two
case-destinations (10 organizations each, cf. table 6.1: 138). The analysis included
intra- and cross-case interpretations of joint and contrasting patterns of
organizational planning, in particularly with respect to trends in shorter-term climate
crises and longer-term shifts in climate means. The results have been obtained by
summarizing the enablers and inhibitors of climate responses from the perspective of
the individual organization as well as by embedding the individual perspectives into
their local business and institutional environments. Moreover this chapter draws on
insights from patterns emanating from the cross-case analyses.
138
Table 6.1: Empirical sample: Represented case-organizations and interview partners
Type of organization
Interview Partner
Alias
Organizational function
Case-destination A
Boarding house (standard class)
JF
Manager
Boarding house (upper class)
XU
Manager
Cable car operator
MN
Manager
Hotel (comfort class)
RC
Junior Manager
Hotel (standard class)
IU
Manager
Hotel (standard class)
TK
Local tourism association
EA
Mountain lodge and restaurant
EA
13
Manager
Vice president
Manager
14
Municipality and destination management
RX
Mayor, head of the municipality, boss of the
destination management’s officer
Ski school
IL
Manager
Boarding house (standard class)
GQ
Manager
Cable car operator
ME
Deputy manager
Destination management
DQ
Deputy manager
Hotel (first class)
IY
Manager
Hotel (first class)
HU
Manager
Hotel (first class)
HF
Manager
Local tourism association
HF
President
Local tourism association for small businesses GQ
President
Municipality
FJ
Mayor, head of the municipality
Ski school
IY
Manager
Total number of case organizations: 20
Total number of semi-structured interviews: 15 (16)15
Case-destination B
The analytic findings in particular build on two descriptive category schemes: the
types of climate response measures that have been considered and implemented by
organizational managers (tables A.35 to A.38: 320ff.) and the derived typology of
13 Supplemented by a short-interview with the president of the local tourism association
14 Supplemented by short-interviews with the destination management’s officer
15 One interview has been cut off and could not resumed due to time constrains
139
management styles with respect to the general relevance of climate change for
organizational operations (table 6.2: 139).
Table 6.2: Relevance of trends in the local winter and summer climate for organizational action and types
of managers’ strategic orientation with respect to climate change
Climate change relevant for
organizational planning?
Strategic orientation
Number
of IPs
Winter climate change
Yes
(proactive)
Potentially
(reactive)
No
(inactive)
Climate changes and so do I
4
Climate might change, better to play save and respond
2
Climate changes – let’s wait and see
2
Climate changes, but it will not affect me
6
Not sure if climate changes – no need for action
2
Climate change brings us new business opportunities
2
Summer climate change
Yes
(proactive and reactive)
The insights from the case studies on the conditions that enable or impede
organizations to plan and implement the identified climate responses and the
strategic orientations towards climate change are structured in four categories
(cf. figure 6.1). Specific or g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (e.g. accessible
resources) have been identified that could be associated with patterns of business
planning in the face of climate change. These characteristics are hypothesized to
imply specified i m p a c t s o n c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s of the case-organizations (e.g.
perceived ability to implement responses). The organizational characteristics are
described on three levels of detail (cf. figure A.8: 323). Besides the insights on
organizational characteristics that influence the case-organizations’ response to
climate change the case studies led to insights how these characteristics are
constituted, The insights of this kind disclose potential triggers for building
organizational capacity of response (cf. research question Q 3.2). Contextual factors
(‘d e t e r m i n a n t s’ ) have been identified that contribute to the development of the
organizational characteristics (e.g. local cooperative spirit among organizations). As
forth category the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s e s have been
identified by which the determinants constitute the organizational characteristics
(e.g. resource sharing among organizations).
140
Figure 6.1: The four analytic categories of the case studies
The findings on the four categories are synthesized at the end of the following
sections in a table that corresponds to the structure of figure 6.1. The synthesis tables
also reveal interlinkages between the impact paths around different organizational
characteristics when, for instance, one characteristic (e.g. financial resources)
represents a determinant of a further characteristic (e.g. realm of considered response
options). Central descriptive findings (e.g. different patterns of information
management), on which the interpretations are based, are depicted in text boxes (for
more detailed descriptions, please refer to the case profiles in the annex A.1: 260ff.).
The key categories that have been developed from the case studies with respect to
these four perspectives are h i g h l i g h t e d in the text. The result chapter is structured
141
along the three main categories of organizational characteristics that have been
identified in the case studies to be associated with organizational responses to climate
impacts:
The m a n a g e r s’ a w a r e n e s s o f t h e b u s i n e s s i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c l i m a t e
c h a n g e represent a decisive starting point for triggering organizational responses.
Therefore this category receives particular attention and scope in the presentation of
the findings. A second category is the m a n a g e r s’ c o m m i t m e n t t o r e s p o n d
t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e . Together with the first category it influences the perceived
relevance and urgency to employ responses. The third category of factors that drive or
impede climate responses refers to o r g a n i z a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s a n d m a n a g e r s’
r o o m f o r m a n e u v e r. It as well considers the function of the manager, yet from
the organization perspective with regard to the intellectual capabilities, knowledge
and experiences (s)he contributes to the business. Furthermore, this category in
general addresses organizational characteristics that contribute as resources to the
response process.
The categories represent an elaboration of the set of general categories of Fankhauser
et al. (1999) and Hoffmann et al. (2009) to analyze the determinants of
organizations’ capacities to respond to the impacts of climate change that have been
presented earlier (cf. chapter 4.4: 112ff. and section 3.5.1: 92ff.). The categories
reflect the relevance of the businesses managers for considering and implementing
climate responses. Given the small size and the organizational structure of the major
part of the analyzed business organizations, their managers take in a crucial role with
regard to setting the planning agenda and implementing it (cf. table 4.2: 113).
142
6.1 Managers’ awareness of the business implications of
climate change
The case study analysis reveals how different aspects attached to climate change
influence the way that managers deal with the phenomenon in their business
planning. The physical impacts of climate change that can be described from a
natural-science point of view (cf. section 2.4.2) are not necessarily the ones the
business managers are aware of and that are relevant to them. The managers of the
analyzed businesses develop their individual constructs on the economic relevance of
climate change for their businesses from the perspective of running their
organizations. The analysis suggests that different kind of interrelated and recursive
learning processes are inducing these constructs and thereby the managers’ awareness
of these aspects. In this respect the learning cycle, suggested by earlier research
(figure 3.5: 97), could be reconstructed (figure 6.2).
Figure 6.2: Learning cycle on the economic relevance of climate change
(based on Zollo & Winter 2002, Berkhout et al. 2006, cf. figure 3.5:97)
MANAGERS’ AWARENESS OF THE BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
143
The reconstruction of the learning cycle was supported by the instance that the
interview situations themselves repeatedly appeared to be a trigger of the learning
process by guiding the managers towards the issue of climate change. This
phenomenon suggests the importance of interactive settings in the context of
learning about climate change. During the interviews it became clear that some
interview partners had been earlier investing time to reflect in order to position
themselves and their planning activities towards these issues. Others, in contrary,
apparently only started the process of deliberating upon the consequences of climate
change – mainly an increase of mean temperatures – for the business, hypothetically
playing through different response options and reflecting their adequacy and
feasibility.
The structure of this chapter reflects the three main categories in which the learning
processes took place: The c o n s t r u c t s o n t h e e x p o s u r e t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e
emanate from processes and factors that shape the way managers collect and interpret
signals in their organizational environments, particularly its climatic factors.
Constructs of the economic sensitivity to local climate dynamics
are linked to experiences and assumptions on the economic consequences of the
exposure to physical climate phenomena. The r e a l m o f c o n s i d e r e d b u s i n e s s
o p t i o n s t o r e s p o n d t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e has been found to be key for the
learning process on the implications of climate change for the local tourism business.
On the one hand it is shaped by preceding learning phases on climate impacts. On
the other hand the success of managers’ reflections on response options in turn seem
to determine whether the learning process terminates with a satisfactory response
strategy or the learning cycle restarts by reconsidering the initial constructs on the
physical and economical impacts of climate change. The processes constituting the
three categories are used to further structure the respective sections of this chapter.
6.1.1
Constructs of the exposure to climate change
The managers of the analyzed businesses differ with respect to their personal
constructs on the local e x p o s u r e t o t h e p h y s i c a l i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e
144
c h a n g e as well as the related constructs on the e x p o s u r e t o t h e e c o n o m i c
i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e (cf. table 6.3).
Table 6.3: Categories and dimensions managers’ constructs on climate change (assumptions on the course
and timing of the dynamics of local climate change and impacts attributed to climate change)
The individual constructs have been deduced from affirmative or rejecting statements in the interviews with respect to the
compiled dimensions.
Course of local climate dynamics
Timing of local climate change
• Ongoing change in the local climate
snow-poor winter seasons
• Future change in the local climate (from >10
years to > 50 years)
• Continuous, step by step shift in local, seasonal
climatic conditions, particular increase of local
temperatures
• Increased risk of extreme events, particularly
Physical impacts
(observed and expected)
• Snow poor winter seasons,
•
•
•
•
•
decreasing natural and technical snow reliability
Seduction of winter season
length
Increase of summer temperatures
Scarcity of water resources
due to glacier retreats
Occurrence of heavy storm
events
Blurring of the seasons
Negative socio-economic
impacts
Positive socio-economic impacts
• New business opportunities
for summer tourism
revenues
• Improved living conditions
Changing booking behavior
due to comfortable winter
of tourists
temperatures
Risk of bankruptcy
Depleting financial reserves
Growing planning uncertainty
Interruption of cable car operation due to heavy storm
events
Negative publicity due to
unfavorable media coverage
• Reducing guest numbers and
•
•
•
•
•
•
The question what evidences about climate change from which sources are
considered by the managers as well as how theses evidences are interpreted, appears to
be crucial to the process of organizational learning about these phenomena. The
constructs emanating from the interpretation process influence the p e r c e i v e d
r e l e v a n c e of climate phenomena for business planning and eventually driving or
reducing the m o t i v a t i o n o f m a n a g e r s to engage in response measures. Both for
the local impacts of an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events and
longer-term shifts in climate means, the analysis suggests links between the perceived
( u n ) a m b i g u i t y o f e v i d e n c e s that are taken into account, the uncertainty and
ambiguity of t h e c o n s t r u c t s o n c l i m a t e c h a n g e (cf. table 6.3, box 6.1: 149)
and the d i r e c t n e s s o f r e s p o n s e to its impacts: the repeated pattern emerged in
CHANGE
145
the interviews that the clearer the threat or opportunity of climate change for the
respective business had been perceived, the more directed and tangible their business
response to the assumed impacts of climate change turned out to be.
Learning about climate change draws on evidences from direct experiences of local
climatic conditions and from indirect, external sources such as experts, the mass
media or discussions among colleagues. Table 6.4 shows the types of s o u r c e s o f
e v i d e n c e the managers referred to when they revealed their individual constructs
on climate change. The table as well indicates the overall importance of the sources
among the interview partners (IP), including managers of businesses, tourism
associations and the public administrations (majors) of the case-destinations. It
likewise reflects the a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , such
as expert knowledge about future climate trends.
Table 6.4: Sources of evidence on which individual sensemaking about climate change draws on
Internal Evidence
External Evidence
Source
Personal experience
with local climatic
conditions
Expert knowledge
(expert talks,
symposia, consultants, exhibitions)
Mass Media
(TV, internet,
radio, newspaper,
magazines)
Local discussions
(network meetings,
conversations
among colleagues
and acquaintances )
IPs (N = 16)
11
5
11
6
Learning from personal experiences
For the big majority of the managers, personal experiences of the local climatic
conditions has a high i n f o r m a t i v e v a l u e with regard to their individual
constructs on climate change in that they consider their personal experiences as
fundamental bases for their business planning (cf. table 6.4). Managers learn about
future climate trends by deducing from past and present experiences. Such
experiences refer to the occurrence of snow poor or snow rich winter seasons
(frequency and magnitude), as well as the occurrence or absence of other extreme
temperature and precipitation patterns or storm events (frequency and magnitude).
References to personal experiences are used to validate the p l a u s i b i l i t y o f
e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n like media coverage or expert knowledge.
With regard to a shift in longer-term climate means, managers perceived past trends
in the local summer climate, such as a rise of the mean temperatures and heat days, as
146
unambiguous in contrast to trends in the winter season. An ongoing and future
change of the local climate in summer seems to be much more obvious to the
managers than the notion of changes in the local winter climate. The perception
corresponds with the climate records of the past decades (cf. figure A.1: 262) in the
annex of the thesis). This pattern suggests that the e x p e r i e n c e d a m b i g u i t y o f
c l i m a t e s i g n a l s that is also influenced by the c o n c e p t u a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g
o f c l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e (cf. figure 2.4: 23) has direct
consequences for managers’ constructs about climate change. Given the importance
of personal climate experience for managers’ constructs about climate change, a high
inter-annual variability in climate patterns – particularly natural snow conditions in
winter season – makes it difficult for managers to identify an underlying trend as an
environmental phenomenon to which businesses might need to respond to.
The case studies suggest that the question whether a climatic or weather event is
classified as extreme by managers not only depends on p e r c e p t i o n s o f n a t u r a l p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s (e.g. green slopes in winter), but also on the
p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e p e r s o n a l e c o n o m i c a l i m p a c t of this event (e.g. a
financial crisis situation). In this respect substantial differences have been identified
among the managers. As a result an event that would by described as identical across
a destination from a climatological or meteorological point of view might result in
varying or even opposing views from a business perspective. By way of example, the
economic impacts of the same warm winter season (2006/07) within the same
destination (B) have been assessed in quite contrary directions by different managers
(“catastrophe” vs “quite positive”).
Learning from media reports
The mass media (TV, radio, print media, internet) is the prevalent source of external
evidence about the business environment, including information about climate
change (cf. table 6.4). It shapes the individual constructs on climate change, albeit
differently across the managers. References to media reports are both used by some as
a support for their position on climate change and by others in order to distance
themselves from the position of the media. In this respect both the p e r c e i v e d
r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e as well as the a c c u r a c y i n t h e
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m e d i a t i o n o f c l i m a t e i n f o r m a t i o n seem to influence the conclusions that
managers draw from media reports:
Imprecise and oversimplified reports on climate change issues lead to irritations and
discredit the potential threats reported to result from climate change: Managers
learned from the media that snow-poor winter seasons, like the season 2006/07, were
evidences for an ongoing climate change. The intermingling of shorter-term climate
variability and longer-term change by the media leaves managers confused either
because they already had experienced snow-poor winter seasons in the past when
nobody was talking about climate change yet (“then climate change is nothing new”)
or they were recently experiencing winter seasons with good snow conditions again
(“then climate change is not true”). Negative experiences with media coverage and a
resulting skeptical attitude towards the media discredits the potential threats reported
about climate change: A group of managers (5) complains about an exaggeration of
potential climate impacts in the discourse on climate change, a part directly blaming
the media for emotionalized reports.
Learning from scientific evidence
When references to scientific evidences are used to support the manager’s construct of
climate change, they are recurrently used as evidence to play down the threat of local
climate change (e.g. references to past glacier retreats, projected stagnation of
temperature increase for the next decade in regional climate scenarios). The
conclusions drawn from scientific information about past developments and future
projections of climate parameters that have been cited in the interviews recurrently
lack accuracy, compared to the state of climate research. Past phenomena are put in
the wrong time perspective (glacier retreats: “We have had that before”), statistical
data about past developments of climate parameters is used to extrapolate future
trends or solely optimistic estimations from the bandwidth of scientific climate
projections are taken into account. This pattern of m i s l e a d i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n
o f s c i e n t i f i c e v i d e n c e can be observed with seven IP from the group of eight
interview partners (IPs) that refer to scientific information in their narratives on
climate variability and climate change.
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Integrating personal experiences and external evidence
Learning about climate change in most cases involves i n t e g r a t i n g p e r s o n a l
e x p e r i e n c e s a n d e x t e r n a l e v i d e n c e . The managers’ personal experiences
particularly are shaped by the interannually variable temperature, precipitation and
wind patterns in summer and winter seasons. Information that is perceived by the
managers from external sources of evidence, like media reports, introduces aspects of
long-term trends in climatic patterns. In the process of integrating both types of
evidence intermingling shorter-term climate variability with a longer-term climate
change appeared as a dominant pattern. Temporary events such as snow poor winter
seasons or snow rich winter seasons are put at the same level with longer-term shifts
in climate means (12 out of 16 IPs). The underlying lack of c o n c e p t u a l
u n d e r s t a n d i n g a b o u t c l i m a t e p h e n o m e n a which can be assumed
corresponds to the pattern of inaccurate media reports about climate change that has
been pointed out earlier. Depending on m a n a g e r s’ b e l i e f i n t h e e x i s t e n c e
o f t h e p h e n o m e n o n o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e that means whether they accept or
refuse the existence of climate change as a background trend to trigger observable
climate and weather phenomena, they interpret their personal experiences of local
climatic conditions in different ways. As a result, persons working in the same
destination and drawing on very similar experiences, in some cases arrive at opposing
conclusions: personal experiences can be both a sign for the threat or for the absence
of climate change. Regarding the result of the balancing process between personal
and external evidence, four distinct groups have been be identified (box 6.1).
The analysis of the groups suggests an influence of the t i m e s c o p e o f
m a n a g e r s’ p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e l o c a l c l i m a t e on their
integration of personal experience and external evidence. Looking at the ‘optimists’
and the ‘pessimists’ (cf. box 6.1) it appears that these two groups differ with regard of
the time period that the IPs have been working within their organization in the
destination. The optimist group in its majority (five of six IPs) consists of persons
with a longtime personal experience of local climatic conditions (between 18 and 37
years) while managing their organization. This group considers winter seasons with
good snow conditions as confirmation for unchanged local climatic conditions. They
do not take recent warm and snow-poor winter seasons as evidence for an ongoing
local climate change and rather attribute the phenomena to natural climate
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149
variability. The group of pessimists consists of person with a shorter-term
involvement within their organizations (less than 10 years). In contrast to the
optimists’ group members of this group interpret recent warm and snow-poor winter
seasons as a strong evidence for an ongoing local climate change and are very much
alarmed about their assumed threats on the local tourism economy. In this group of
managers the present r i s k o f e x p e r i e n c i n g a s n o w p o o r w i n t e r s e a s o n
due to climate change is consistently valued high. It is also among this group of
managers that the development of additional emergency winter offers for managing
short-term business crises is considered.
•
T h e o p t i m i s t s : Recent personal experiences of the local winter
season with good snow conditions have s u p p o r t e d their general
notion that impacts of local climate change are currently n o t a n
i s s u e to be concerned about.
•
T h e p e s s i m i s t s : Recent personal experiences of extreme weather
events and snow-poor winter seasons have s u p p o r t e d their general
notion that impacts of local climate change a r e a n i s s u e to be
concerned about.
•
T h e c o n f u s e d : Recent personal experiences of the local winter season
with good snow conditions have c o n t r a v e n e d their basic notion that
impacts of local climate change a r e a n i s s u e to be concerned about.
•
T h e r e l a x e d : Recent personal experiences of the local winter season
could not serve as evidence about climate change unless they were put in
a larger time perspective.
Box 6.1: Types of managers with respect to balancing personal and external evidence
about climate change
150
Table 6.5: Constructs of the exposure to climate change: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses
to climate change
Organizational Characteristics
• Awareness of the exposure to the physical
impacts of climate change
• Awareness of the exposure to the economic
Determinants of Climate Reponses
• Accessibility of information about long-term
•
•
•
•
• Ambiguity of the climate construct
trends of climate change
Time scope of personal experiences with local
climatic conditions
Subjective assigned informative value and reliability of information sources
Belief in the existence of the phenomenon
‘climate change’
Conceptual understanding of climate variability and climate change
• Learning from personal experiences
• Perceived risk of being exposed to a detri-
• Past and present experiences
mental weather or climate phenomenon
• Physical impacts of environmental change
• Perceived personal economical impact of
• Economic impacts of environmental
climate events
change
• Motivation of managers to respond
• Learning from external evidences (e.g. media
• Perceived relevance of climate phenomena
coverage, scientific expertise)
for business planning
• Estimating accuracy of external evidence
• Directness of response
• Assessing plausibility of evidences
• Integrating information from different sources
of evidence
Impacts on Climate Responses
Organizational Development Process
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6.1.2
151
Constructs of the economic sensitivity to local climate
conditions
The previous section discussed how managers arrive at their personal constructs of
the local climate dynamics by collecting and interpreting personal and external
evidences. The case studies suggest that managers’ perceptions about the degree by
which their companies are effectively e c o n o m i c a l l y a f f e c t e d b y s h o r t e r a n d l o n g e r - t e r m v a r i a t i o n s in the local climatic patterns add to p e r c e i v e d
e c o n o m i c r e l e v a n c e o f c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s as well as the m o t i v a t i o n o f a
manager to engage in response measures .
Learning from past economic impacts
Due to the natural variability of the local climate, all managers have made
e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h t h e e c o n o m i c i m p a c t s of extreme weather events and
warm winter seasons. Through these experiences managers have learned about the
e c o n o m i c r e l e v a n c e of the climatic factors in their organizational environments.
They shape their constructs of the climate sensitivity of their businesses.
Negative impacts comprise both direct impacts, such as the immediate decline in the
number of guest, and indirect impacts, such as a change in tourists’ booking behavior
in the subsequent seasons. However, the p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e c l i m a t e
s e n s i t i v i t y as an incentive for action are independent from the a s s u m p t i o n s
a b o u t t h e o r i g i n o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s that means whether extreme events
emanate from the natural variability or a general change of the local climatic
conditions.
Assessing the present and future climate adaptness
Managers’ constructs of the climate sensitivity are also influenced by personal
a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e a d a p t n e s s of the business to climate variability and
climate change: The reliance on existing snowmaking capacities and a flexible
organization structure that allows for quickly adapting the staff size to a decline in
tourism demand increases the perceived resilience towards extreme events
(cf. chapter 3.4). Destinations A and B differ both in their exposure to extreme events
and in their capacity to compensate a lack of natural snow by artificial snowmaking
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(destination A: higher exposure / lower capacity; cf. chapter A.1.1: 268ff. and 272ff.).
The analysis of the constructs of the local tourism businesses’ climate sensitivity of
the two destinations reveals a clear pattern of low perceived sensitivity in the context
of capacious snowmaking infrastructure: In that climate sensitivity of downhill skiing
is perceived to be generally an issue of concern in destination A whereas in
destination B it is not.
Table 6.6: Constructs of the sensitivity to climate impacts: enablers and inhibitors of organizational
responses to climate change
• Awareness of the economic sensitivity towards
shorter-term climate extremes
• Awareness of the economic sensitivity towards
longer-term shifts in climate means
• Assumptions about the origin of extreme
events
• Assumptions about the adaptness of the business
• Motivation of a manager to engage in response • Learning from experiences with past economic
measures
• Perceived economic relevance of the climatic
factors
6.1.3
impacts of extreme weather events and warm
winter seasons
• Assessing the present and future climate adaptness
Realm of considered business options to respond to climate
change
In addition to managers’ awareness of dynamics in the climatic environment of their
organizations and the organizations economic sensitivity to these dynamics, the
implications that climate change holds for their business management is also
constituted by managers awareness of business options to respond to climate change.
The realm of considered business options to respond to climate change refers to
organizational strategies and measures that are considered by feasible and appropriate
by organization’s management to respond to the shorter-term impacts of climate and
weather extremes (crisis management) and/or to the impacts of longer-term climate
change (adaptation management). It is shaped by iterative, interrelated organizational
learning processes on the relevance of climate change for business planning and
options to adjust business operations accordingly. The learning process is influenced
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by assessments on the organizational ability to cope with climate impacts, the
identification of particular response options as well as reflections on the integration of
these options into business planning in the case-organizations.
Iterative and reflexive learning about climate impacts and organizational
responses
The results of the case studies suggest that learning about climate change as well as its
economical impacts on the one side and learning about options to respond to these
impacts on the other side are interrelated and recursive processes (cf. figure 6.2: 142).
When the managers, on the one hand, reflected on their local climate conditions they
simultaneously hypothesized about potential organizational responses to shorter-term
climate extremes (crisis management) and longer-term shifts in climate means and
the effects of the considered responses. This corresponds to a mental form of the
experimentation and search phase in the learning process (cf. figure 3.5: 97). On the
other hand the consideration of response options also triggered a r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f c l i m a t e e v i d e n c e s : The narratives consistently involved
iterations between ‘articulating the perceived urgency of climate impacts –
articulating and interpreting evidences – articulating and reflecting response options’.
During the interviews some managers revealed their learning processes about
responses to climate change by disclosing the results of previous reflections. It
appeared that these response strategies had already been considered prior to the
interview as they were embedded into a consistent and elaborate rationale. For others
in contrast the interview situation itself appeared to be the trigger of the learning
process. In these cases the number of the narrative iterations was higher. The group of
managers that started to develop response strategies only during the interview
furthermore consistently failed to come to a satisfying result within their narratives:
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In case of climate change we would enlarge our pond and have an ice skating rink...no,
maybe we wouldn’t have a rink because it wouldn’t be cold enough... But I mean, it is cold
– anyway it isn’t that warm. After all, I don’t think that climate will change so fast that we
would instantly need god-knows for alternatives.16
Wenn sich das Klima ändern würde... dann würde man den Teich größer machen und hätten einen Eislaufplatz... dann hätten wir
vielleicht keinen Eislaufplatz, weil es zu wenig kalt ist...aber ich meine, kalt ist es – so warm ist es ja trotzdem nicht... also ich glaube
nicht, dass der Klimawandel so schnell geht, dass wir da jetzt Weißgott welche Alternativen brauchen.
Manager of a boarding house in destination A
...snow shoe walking wouldn’t be possible either...Anyway, we’ll see.
Schneeschuhwandern ist dann auch nicht möglich... Nein wird man sehen.
Manager of a hotel in destination A
Linked to the unsuccessful efforts of exploring and assessing potential responses in
the course of the interviews, this suggests that learning about response options
involves the i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p a b i l i t i e s both about the vulnerability to local
climatic conditions and on the responses. And it further is triggered by e x t e r n a l
stimuli to initiate the learning process .
Assessing the organizational ability to respond to climate impacts
After the unsuccessful attempts the group of managers that started to develop
response strategies during the interview either stopped the process of reflecting about
response options or drew on new evidences to play down the u r g e n c y t o
r e s p o n d . This pattern that was found among the group of managers that lacked
options to respond, suggests that the constructs about the exposure of and sensitivity
to climate change are in turn influenced by the perceived present ability to respond to
these impacts, mainly in terms of accessible f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s . In contrast
managers that claimed their firms to have the a b i l i t y t o r e s p o n d to climate
impacts perceived a low u r g e n c y t o r e s p o n d to climate impacts due to their
assumed general f l e x i b i l i t y a n d r e s p o n s i v e n e s s towards different changes in
the organizational environment: This group of managers relied on future b u s i n e s s
o p p o r t u n i t i e s to compensate potential losses as well as on their i n t e l l e c t u a l
a n d f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s to allow them to identify and invest into adequate
responses as soon as the environmental conditions would call for it.
16 The original interview quotations (German language) used in this study have been translated by
the author
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Identifying business options to respond to climate change
Both the response options to increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes
as well as shift in climate means that have been developed by the managers during or
previous to the interviews in general are very close to the core products of their
existing businesses. They do not involve considerable shifts of the general business
strategies and draw on existing routines and experiences from the core business. It
appears that feasible response options draw on e x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
r o u t i n e s that have been learned through p r e v i o u s b u s i n e s s e x p e r i e n c e s .
That would imply that existing organizational routines shape the r e a l m o f
c o n s i d e r e d r e s p o n s e o p t i o n s . This hypothesis is supported by the extreme
case of a hotel manager who stood out for a substantial investment directed to
considerably adjust his core business activities in order to reduce the sensitivity of his
business to climate change. The hotel manager’s long-time secondary, unsalaried
employment within the organic food branch provided him with knowledge,
experience and social networks. These resources facilitated to shift his core business
from board and lodging of ski tourists to an all-season organic wellness hotel. In that
way, e x p l o r i n g a n d e x p e r i m e n t i n g w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e b u s i n e s s f i e l d s
next to the core business is used as a basis to create feasible snow-independent
business opportunities which again lower the barrier to enter the new business field.
Integrating climate responses into business planning
All responses to climate change that are considered by managers, either planned or
implemented, involve some kind of b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y that allows to tap
alternative or additional sources of revenue (cf. tables 35 to 38 on pages 320-322).
Responses that are exclusively targeted on the shift of long-term local climate means
are considered by a group of managers that perceive clear and certain evidences about
novel and ongoing changes in the local climate. In contrast, managers that are
uncertain about long-term changes of the local winter climate invest into responses
that involve co-benefits that do not depend on the occurrence of local climate
change. This suggests that the c e r t a i n t y a b o u t c l i m a t e i m p a c t s has an
influence on the d i r e c t n e s s o f c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s .
The responses predominantly are targeted to stabilize the core business by protecting
the winter tourism business or extending existing summer tourism products. Only
156
few response options are considered that deal with temporary declines of the core
business by offering ‘emergency activities’ to the tourists and that can contribute to a
crisis management in case of poor snow conditions. These alternative, snowindependent winter attractions are considered by those managers that perceive a
n o v e l a n d a c u t e t h r e a t of snow poor winter seasons.
Table 6.7: Realm of considered business options to respond to climate change: enablers and inhibitors of
organizational responses to climate change
• Considered responses to shorter-term extreme
events (crisis management)
• Considered responses to longer-term shifts in
climate means (adaptation management)
• Perceived external stimuli to initiate the
•
•
•
•
•
• Perceived urgency to respond
• Directness of climate responses
• Awareness of feasible response options
• Realm of considered response options
learning process about organizational responses
Perceived novelty, manifestness and certainty of
the threat of climate impacts, e.g. snow poor
winter seasons
Perceived organizational flexibility and
responsiveness towards environmental change
Intellectual and financial resources
• capacity of intensive reasoning
• capacity of investments
Awareness of business opportunities
Existing routines of organizational activities
• Assessing the organizational ability to respond
to climate impacts
• Interrelated and recursive processes between
learning about climate impacts and learning
about options to respond to them, e.g. drawing
on previous business experiences
MANAGERS’ COMMITMENT TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
157
6.2 Managers’ commitment to respond to climate change
Section 6.1 provides insights on the influence of learning processes about climate
change on the motivation of managers to take responsive business action. The case
studies reveal that responses to an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme
events and a shift of climate means not only depend on the managers’ awareness of
the need as well as of potential options to respond. They are also influenced by
managers’ commitment to respond to climate change. Based on the case studies the
commitment to respond is defined as the notion that climate change belongs to the
dynamics in an organization’s external environment that the organization or its
manager(s) respectively are supposed to consider in their present business strategy
More precisely, the category of commitment integrates three subcategories: Against
the background of limited resources and different relevance that managers attach to
the dynamics in their organizational environments, the consideration of response
measures depends on the p r i o r i t y attached to them in relation to alternative
investments. The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o a c t addresses the question whether a
manager thinks that (s)he, or her/his organization respectively, is the proper one to
implement a response. The subcategory of the p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n takes into
account the temporal dimensions of the managers’ commitments to implement
climate responses.
6.2.1
Priorities of investment incentives
The managers’ commitment to respond to climate change was found to be influenced
by the p r i o r i t y o f c l i m a t i c i n c e n t i v e s in comparison with other
environmental incentives. The case studies suggest that the priorities of
organizational activities build on the process of i d e n t i f y i n g a n d a s s e s s i n g
i n v e s t m e n t i n c e n t i v e s and are further shaped by the processes of b a l a n c i n g
t r a d e - o f f s a n d c o - b e n e f i t s of the different investment strategies. The latter is
closely linked to different approaches of dealing with uncertainty and risk.
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Identifying and assessing investment incentives
Analyzing the incentives of managers to implement certain business strategies and
measures two general sources of investment incentives could be identified that are
managers access to differing degrees: environmental and personal incentives.
E n v i r o n m e n t a l i n c e n t i v e s refer to signals in the organizational environment,
such as change in tourism trends or climate change that are perceived as triggers for
business activities. Managers that are activated by environmental incentives perform
e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c a n n i n g activities (cf. table 3.10: 101) with different degrees
of intensity, continuity and formalization (for a detailed examination see section
6.3.1).
However, managers also draw on p e r s o n a l i n c e n t i v e s for business planning that
are not emanating from the business environment, but rather from individual desires
that exist independent from environmental signals. The manager of a boarding house
for instance describes her main incentive of expanding her accommodation offers by
building several mountain chalets with her personal passion of being an architect who
likes to shape and create. A manager of a mountain restaurant mainly develops her
business plans on the basis of dreams and ideas she had developed in the past.
With climate change being a novel, environmental phenomenon (cf. section 3.2.2) it
can be assumed that an e n v i r o n m e n t a l o r i e n t a t i o n o f b u s i n e s s
m a n a g e m e n t facilitates the consideration of the consequences of climate change
by the manager. The above examples from the case studies support this hypothesis.
Balancing trade-offs and co-benefits of different investment strategies
Against the background of limited organizational f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s , the
motivation to respond to climate change was found to be influenced by t r a d e - o f f s
emanating from c o n c u r r i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l i n c e n t i v e s f o r i n v e s t m e n t s
such as changing tourism trends, international competition and increasing energy
prices: Managers that link their business planning on environmental incentives (cf.
previous section) deliberately b a l a n c e t h e t r a d e - o f f s between different
investment strategies in order to decide which issues are in the top-part of their
priority list. It was found to be a dominant pattern that external incentives that are
perceived m a n i f e s t , i.e. can be directly experienced, rank high in the priority list. It
159
therefore appears that the d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y about an environmental
phenomenon is linked to the p e r c e i v e d n e e d f o r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
r e s p o n s e : The earlier observation that an ongoing and future change of the local
climate in summer seems to be much more obvious to the managers than the notion
of changes in the local winter climate (cf. section 6.1.1) also shows up in the list of
deployed investments (table 35: 320). Managers recognize the potential that a
warmer summer both in the Alpine region as well as in competing summer
destinations in the Mediterranean implies for the local tourism business. Therefore
responses to climate change not only include measures and strategies to reduce the
vulnerability of the business, but also include measures and strategies to capitalize on
positive impacts of climate change.
However, managers have been found to show different degrees of r i s k p r o p e n s i t y
in their investment planning that means different degrees of tolerance towards
uncertainty in their investment decisions. More specifically, the category of risk
propensity has been derived from the case studies to conceive the managers’
willingness to invest a certain amount of capital under conditions of a certain level of
perceived uncertainty in the development of the framework conditions that are
required for the investment to pay off. The future character of climate change implies
that the individual constructs about the related phenomena are characterized by a
certain degree of u n c e r t a i n t y (cf. section 3.2.2). That implies that investments
based on assumptions about climate change and how it affects the situation of the
business environment come with a risk that grows with the investment’s amortization
period. Linked to their personal degrees of risk propensity, managers feel more or less
motivated to invest into responses to a potential future threat like climate change.
Some do not want to take any risk at all, others in turn consider risks-taking to be
intrinsically tied to the success of managing a business. The case studies suggest that
various factors are likely to influence manager’s r i s k p r o p e n s i t y a n d
c o n n o t a t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t y (risk to loose, opportunity to gain) such as
m a n a g e r ’s p e r s o n a l i t y, f i r m a n d f a m i l y h i s t o r y a n d t r a d i t i o n s ,
past experiences of success and failure.
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In the near future a part of the rooms will have to be renovated – we already did one part,
but 4 or 5 rooms will have to be re-equipped and renovated. But apart from that we have
nothing planned. You always have to look 2 or 3 years ahead, but we wouldn’t look further.
If you’re looking 3 or 4 years ahead and then you experience 2 bad winter seasons you will
have to struggle not to run into dept and to be left behind. Sadly this has been often the
case in our vicinity that some big houses ran up debts and perished.
In naher Zukunft werden auch die Zimmer zu renovieren sein, ein Teil – einen Teil haben wir ja schon gemacht, aber 4, 5 Zimmer
gehören ein bisschen neu ausgestattet und renoviert. Ja aber sonst ist aber eigentlich noch nichts geplant... da muss man immer 2, 3 Jahre
vor schauen, aber weiter schauen wir nicht vor. [...] Wenn Du jetzt 3, 4 Jahre nach vorne schaust und 2 schlechte Winter dabei hast, musst
Du schon schauen, dass Du Dich nicht verschuldest und dass Du vielleicht auf der Strecke bleibst und zusperren musst. Ist leider Gottes oft
der Fall bei uns in der Umgebung schon gewesen, dass sich einige große Häuser verschuldet haben und dann zu Grunde gegangen sind.
Manager of hotel in destination A
In a first step we actually risked very much by doubling the firm size. Afterward we
continued to take very big financial risks and ventures. It always turned out all right...
I mean, there are definitely risks. In former times that might have been some warfare.
Nowadays it might as well be a serious energy crisis or a virus where you are not allowed to
kiss or shake hands any more. What do you do then: stay at home. I just say, these are risks
that always might appear overnight. Globally. But in any case we have lived very successfully
with all those risks and, anyway, hope is important at all times.
Das war einmal der erste Schritt und da haben wir eigentlich nochmal sehr viel riskiert und haben dann den Betrieb fast verdoppelt...
Danach sind wir auch in weiteren Schritten... noch einmal sehr große finanzielle Risiken und Wagnisse eingegangen. Ist immer gut
gegangen [...] Ich meine...auf jeden Fall sind Risiken da. Früher war es vielleicht irgendein Krieg...aber jetzt ist es...vielleicht doch
irgendeine empfindlichere Energiekrise oder...ein Virus wo man sich nicht mehr küssen darf und keine Hand mehr schütteln darf. Wo
bleibt man dann: zu hause. Ich sag nur, das sind...Risiken die immer auftauchen können, von heute auf morgen. Global. Aber auf jeden
Fall haben wir sehr erfolgreich damit gelebt, mit den ganzen Risiken...und hoffen muss man sowieso immer.
Manager of hotel in destination B
Most of the planned or implemented responses to reduce the businesses’ sensitivity to
the local winter climate are not exclusively targeted on detrimental climate impacts
(tables 35, 36 and 37 on pages 320-321, cf. chapter 3.3). They involve c o - b e n e f i t s
for the business that exist independently to the climatic conditions (e.g., increasing
revenue by accessing new target-groups). Investments in artificial snowmaking, for
example, are generally made in the first place to reduce the negative impacts of
natural climate variability and are additionally perceived as precaution for potential
impacts of climate change.
The s h a r e o f c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s i n i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n s on response
measures varies: Local climatic phenomena are found to be both primary and
secondary drivers for investments (tables 35, 36 and 37 on pages 320-321).
Substantial investments into tourism products that fulfill the purposes of climate
response strategies have also been made without considering climatic factors at all
(table 38: 322). As a consequence, this phenomenon implies that feasible and
substantial climate responses, which are entirely driven by climate-independent
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triggers and therefore represent n o - r e g r e t s t r a t e g i e s with respect to climate
phenomena, exist and are being implemented
Table 6.8: Priority of investment incentives: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate
change
• Relevance of environmental incentives for busi- • Environmental orientation of business manage-
ment
ness planning (e.g. change in tourism trends or
climate change)
• Manifestness and degree of certainty of environmental signal
• Relevance of personal incentives for business
planning (e.g. individual desires)
• Manager’s risk propensity, connotations of
uncertainty (e.g., risk to loose, opportunity to
gain)
• Manager’s personality, firm and family history
and traditions, past experiences of success and
failure
• Awareness of co-benefits and trade-offs of
climate responses with respect to other investment incentives and no-regret strategies
• Financial capital
• Perceived need and motivation to invest into
climate response
• Share of climatic factors in investment
decisions on climate response measures
6.2.2
• Identifying and assessing investment incent-
ives, based on formal or informal environmental scanning schemes
• Balancing the co-benefits and trade-offs
between different investment strategies
Responsibility to act
Managers’ assumed p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y to implement climate responses
and the a t t r i b u t e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of other organizations and institutions to
respond to climate change were found to contribute to the managers’ commitments
to invest into climate responses.
The perceived p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for action was found to be linked to the
individual concepts about the d u t i e s a t t a c h e d t o t h e m a n a g e r ’s r o l e .
Managers that had been employed to operate businesses, hence being f o r m a l l y
a c c o u n t a b l e to others, explicitly stated that adapting their businesses to
challenging climatic conditions was within their scope of duties. Moreover, the
162
managers of the local cable car operators, which belong to this group of employed
managers, additionally perceive the responsibility that their organizations have for the
local tourism economies by providing the basic infrastructure for local mountain
tourism. Their perceived r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o p r o v i d e s e r v i c e s t o t h e l o c a l
c o m m u n i t y motivates them to keep at adjusting their cable car and snowmaking
infrastructure to changing environmental conditions. In that way they also adopt the
expectations of other businesses in the destinations that attribute the responsibility of
the main responses to changing climatic conditions to the cable car operators.
Some of the managers that identify the need for climate responses, but do not
consider themselves responsible to implement responses still attempt to i n f l u e n c e
o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s to make an investment, for instance by lobbying at the
cable car operator for the extension of the snowmaking capacity. In that way the
managers, although they do not feel responsible to take active climate response
measures in their businesses, they are not entirely passive towards the consequence of
climate change.
However, not all managers rely on the cable car operator to perform the responses
required for the local tourism economy to sustain under the conditions of climate
change. In these cases the assumed l a c k i n g c a p a c i t y of the cable car operators to
adequately respond to climate change rather encourages the p e r s o n a l
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y a n d m o t i v a t i o n for action.
The pattern of perceived r e s p o n s i b i l i t y a t t r i b u t e d t o o t h e r s not only was
found with respect to other local organizations, like the cable car operators. Relying
on the broader society to solve the upcoming problems raised by climate change is a
further rationale of managers to hand over the personal responsibility to implement
climate responses. The h o p e f o r s o c i e t a l p r o g r e s s in research and technology,
supported by politics denominates societal institutions beyond the level of the
destination and its individual organizations.
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Table 6.9: Responsibility to implement climate responses: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses
to climate change
• Assumed personal responsibility to implement
climate responses
• Attributed responsibilities of other organizations and institutions to implement climate
responses
• Duties attached to the manager’s role
• (Formal) accountability to others
• Perceived responsibility to provide services to
the local community
• Perceived capacity of others to respond
• Relying on remedies facilitated by general societal progress (e.g., progress in research and
technology, supported by politics)
• Motivation to respond
• Adopting the expectations of other businesses
• Motivation to influence others to respond /
• Formal assignment of tasks and responsibility
make an investment
6.2.3
• Community building (informal)
Planning horizon
The question whether managers of tourism businesses feel committed to respond to
short-term and long-term dynamics in their local climate was found to be influenced
by their planning horizon, i.e. the extent to which their business plans relate to the
future. The category of the manager’s planning horizon integrates different aspects
about the time orientation of businesses planning: the e x p e c t e d m o m e n t o f
o c c u r r e n c e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s i g n a l s as response incentives, the expected
p e r i o d o f i n v e s t m e n t s t o p a y - o f f , as well as the m a n a g e m e n t ’s t i m e
h o r i z o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l f o r e s i g h t , shaped by the division of
responsibilities, intra- and extra-organizational framework conditions.
For most managers that consider climate change an issue relevant to their business
(cf. table 6.2: 139, cf. section 6.2.1) it is a phenomenon to expected some time in the
future. Again for most of these managers, albeit not all, the question appeared to be
central whether they would be economically affected personally. The assumed
t i m i n g o f p e r s o n a l c l i m a t e i m p a c t (cf. table 6.3: 144) influences the
managers’ l e v e l s o f i n t e r e s t to further look into the subject of climate change.
164
However, the personal time scope of planning also matters to those that already
experience extreme events at present – and either or not linking it to a long-term
trend – as detrimental to their business. The decision whether or not to invest into
organizational responses was influenced by the managers’ assumptions whether an
investment would pay off within a defined period of time. “I will not be affected just
yet” has been a frequent statement, when managers argued why climate change
would not be relevant to their personal business planning.
The m o m e n t o f w i t h d r a w a l from the business is an important limiting factor
of managers’ planning horizons. It influences the managers’ level of i n t e r e s t i n
c l i m a t e c h a n g e and it sets the t i m e h o r i z o n o f i n v e s t m e n t s as the
managers did not feel motivated to make investments that would only pay off after
their withdrawal from the business (e.g, due to retirement). In the prevailing group of
family owned and managed businesses (cf. section 3.5.4) an issue closely linked to the
cessation of the business is the question of f a m i l y s u c c e s s i o n . The answer to the
question whether or not the managers’ children would continue the business has been
a crucial decision factor of managers whether to invest into a comprehensive response
measures, such as a climate-robust spa-hotel. Besides the managers’ considerations of
their r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s t o w a r d s t h e i r s u c c e s s o r s , also the perceived
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o w a r d s t h e l o c a l c o m m u n i t y was found to influence the
time orientation of managers’ business planning. In the cases of the cable car
operators the motivation of a long-term, strategic planning was found to be linked to
their perceived responsibility of managing the central organization within the local
tourism economy (cf. figure A.5: 265, cf. section 6.2.2).
A group of managers deliberately refuses a longer-term oriented, strategic approach to
business planning and thus excludes future climate change from their considerations.
This behavior has been related by the managers to extra-organizational
(environmental) factors and intra-organizational characteristics.
An assumed general limited p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f f u t u r e e n v i r o n m e n t a l
c o n t i n g e n c i e s in the tourism sector, including the local climate, reduces the time
horizon of active environmental foresight and limits the time period of investment
planning. The time horizon of business planning furthermore is influenced by
f r a m e w o r k c o n d i t i o n s o f p a r t n e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s , like banks setting up
requirements for providing access to loan capital. Organizational characteristics like
165
existing o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g r o u t i n e s and a v a i l a b l e f i n a n c i a l
c a p i t a l belong to the intra-organizational determinants of the time horizon of
business planning. Being embedded into short-term organizational planning routines
or lacking the financial resources to finance more than the operating costs, limits the
capacity of managers to proactively and deliberately adjust to environmental
dynamics like climate change.
In addition to these intra- and extra-organizational determinants of managers’
planning horizons also managers’ i n d i v i d u a l m a n a g e m e n t p a r a d i g m s are
influencing the time horizons of investments and environmental foresight: For a
group of managers their short-term spontaneous and flexible planning approach has
been explicitly considered by managers as an important asset of their personal
management style:
We are not thinking too much in advance as issues that evolve often evolve by themselves
wir denken nicht so weit voraus, weil die Dinge sich entwickeln, oft von selber entwickeln
Manager of a mountain restaurant in destination A
166
Table 6.10: Planning horizon: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Time horizon of environmental foresight
• Assumed timing of climate impacts as incent-
• Time horizon of investments to pay-off
• Expected moment of occurrence of environ-
•
mental signal
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ives for organizational response
Expected time period of climate response
investments to pay-off
Moment of business withdrawal (e.g. retirement)
Perceived responsibilities towards firm
successors (e.g., family succession) and the
local community
Assumed predictability of future environmental
contingencies
Individual management paradigms and planning approach (e.g., spontaneous and flexible
planning approach, strategic planning
approach)
Intra-organizational framework conditions
(e.g., embeddedness into organizational planning routines, division of responsibilities)
Extra-organizational framework conditions
(e.g. conditions for accessing loan capital)
Financial capital
• Estimating personal benefit of organizational
climate response measures
climate change for business planning
• Manager’s levels of interest to further look into • Balancing shorter-term and longer-term benefits of organizational investment options
the subject of climate change
• Manager’s levels of interest in longer-term
ORGANIZATIONAL RESOURCES AND ROOM FOR MANEUVER
167
6.3 Organizational resources and room for maneuver
The third category of organizational characteristics that has been associated with
business responses to climate change relates to the resources on which organizations
and their managers draw when considering, planning and implementing climate
responses. Organizational resources facilitate the process of learning about climate
change as well as about response options. The learning processes in turn feed back to
the organizations’ resource stocks (manager’s knowledge, experiences). The resources
represent also the means that provide the managers’ room for maneuver with respect
to the implementation of climate responses and as a consequence are an aspect of the
feasibility of response options.
The category of organizational resources consists of five subcategories:
I n f o r m a t i o n a l c a p i t a l refers to evidences on climate phenomena that managers
can access in their learning processes about the climate vulnerability of their
businesses. The organizations’ h u m a n c a p i t a l represents the knowledge and
experience of the organizations’ members, particularly their managers. The
f i n a n c i a l c a p i t a l consists of own and external financial resources that can be
accessed for business planning processes. The organizations’ s o c i a l c a p i t a l
involves the amount and intensity of relations to other organizations that allow for
mutual flows of different resources. The fifth subcategory d e c i s i o n a u t o n o m y
addresses the degree of intra- and extra-organizational independencies and
interdependency that does or does not allow decisions about investments into climate
responses and determines organizations’ and their managers’ room for maneuver.
6.3.1
Information capital
The case studies show that the observed approaches of business planning with climate
change draw on different stocks of information capital. The organizational learning
processes about the business’ vulnerability to climate change draw on available
information such as personal and external evidences on climate phenomena as well as
the knowledge on potential response options (cf. chapter 6.1: 142ff.). The category of
i n f o r m a t i o n c a p i t a l is defined for the analyzed cases as the organization’s access
168
to any form of e v i d e n c e s a b o u t t h e d y n a m i c s i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
e n v i r o n m e n t as well as the k n o w l e d g e o f o p t i o n s t o r e s p o n d to the
dynamics.
Different approaches are applied among the analyzed organizations to manage their
information capital, with managing meaning to collect (environmental scanning),
interpret and articulate (disseminate) information about their business environment
in general and climate issues in particular (cf. section 3.5.4). The organizations’
i n f o r m a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t routines in the case studies vary with regard to the
c o n t i n u i t y (impetus for scanning17), f o r m a l i z a t i o n (organizational
responsibilities), i n t e n s i t y (scope of scanning, resource allocation) and
p r o a c t i v i t y. The latter category refers to the degree that managers actively
examine the organizational environment – from active environmental scanning down
to passively picking up environmental information.
Main differences exist among different types of organizations in the local tourism
business. In contrast to local businesses in the accommodation or gastronomy sector,
the local cable car operators carry out an active, continuous and systematic collection
and processing of information about climate change. The same holds true for the
associations of local tourism businesses and the local destination managements,
however intensities of information management vary among these organizations.
Boxes 6.2 to 6.4 describe three dominant schemes of information management that
emerge in the cases.
Understanding these differences on an organizational level it appears that the
different schemes of managing information about climate change are connected both
to the available f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s and the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y that an
organization perceives in terms of dealing with climate change (cf. section 6.2.2).
In terms of available financial capital the tourism association and the destination
management in destination B are in a position to provide access to external expert
information to their members, by inviting experts or facilitating their members to
participate in symposia and training courses. Due to very limited financial resources,
this possibility is restricted for their counter-parts in destination A
(cf. chapter A.1.1: 260, figure A.5: 265). Even though the cable car operators of the
17 The terms in brackets provide references from the category system developed in the case studies to
the presented terminology by Fahey et al. 1981, cf. table 3.10: 101.
169
two destinations vary considerably in the company size and scope of offers
(cf. chapter A.1.1, cf. table A.5: 264), both organizations hold sufficient financial
capital to provide their managers access to external information sources about climate
issues, such as symposia and expert discussions. Furthermore the management of
both organizations perceives the responsibility to be informed about climate issues
(cf. box 6.2).
The managers of this business type are integrated in a professionalized
information management scheme of their regional and national associations.
These associations provide them periodically with information bulletins and
organize symposia and expert talks for providing and exchanging knowledge
about current developments. The cable car companies in turn disseminate
the information among the shareholders of their businesses. After the warm
winter season 2006/07 climate change became a central issue in the
discussions of the network of Austrian cable car operators: their winter
business directly depends on the snow conditions of their slopes.
Furthermore, they are the companies in charge of providing the skiing
conditions for the destinations and their managers feel responsible for the
well-being of the overall local tourism business. Hence these businesses have
an immediate interest in the local climatic conditions.
Box 6.2: Information management of the cable car operators
The influence of managers’ perceived responsibility to cope with climate impacts
(cf. section 6.2.2) adds to the understanding of why an active management of climate
information is absent among the remaining firms that have been analyzed. These
organizations in fact actively collect and process information about issues such as
tourism trends and the status of competitors, albeit to different intensities, related to
their available financial and human resources. The pattern that managers attribute
the responsibility to cope with the impacts of climate change to other institutions or
organizations, e.g. to the local cable car operators, has been described earlier
(cf. section 6.2.2). Against this background it is plausible that managers of these firms
that are not directly in charge of providing the winter-sport infrastructure do not
deploy their limited resources on an active examination of the issue of climate
170
change. Given the novelty of the phenomenon of climate change (cf. section 3.2.2), it
can be further assumed that the organizational routines to identify relevant
environmental signals so far are rather focused on traditional dynamics in the
organizational environment than on the novel aspect of climate change.
These organizations are acting as information hubs that collect and process
information from their members as well as from external sources (e.g.
discussions with experts). They disseminate information that is relevant to
the local tourism sector among the different local businesses. Given their
available resources and motivations they are performing these tasks in
different intensities and degrees of professionalization. In both destinations
the issue of climate change is discussed within these types of organizations.
After gaining importance as a consequence of experiencing the warm winter
in 2006/07 the issue again lost importance and had been no more among
the top priorities of the ongoing discussions during the time of the
interviews.
Box 6.3: Information management of tourism associations and local destination
management
The reactions of the analyzed organizations on the warm winter season 2006/07
illustrates how these routines can – at least temporarily – adjust to new
environmental conditions. Across all types of organizations in both destinations the
intensity of managing information about climate change has been fueled by the acute
crisis, a reaction that has been observed by several interviewed managers also for
earlier extreme events. This suggests that the m a n i f e s t n e s s of an environmental
signal, potentially reinforced by the public discourse – as it has been the case in the
winter season 2006/07 – influences the activity and intensity in which organizational
information management is performed.
Differences between the d e g r e e o f f o r m a l i z a t i o n of organizational planning in
general and information management routines in particular have been found with
respect to the s i z e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n s and their o w n e r s h i p s t r u c t u r e
(figure 6.3). In larger organizations, such as the destination management and two
upper class hotels in destination B, roles and duties in information management and
171
organizational planning are divided among a group of executives. Fo r m a l i z e d
p l a n n i n g r o u t i n e s , such as briefing and reporting, facilitate the integration of
knowledge and ideas and contribute to the b r e a d t h a n d d e p t h o f t h e
o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n p o o l . In small family managed firms that
dominate the local tourism economies of the case-destinations no formalized
planning routines exist. Planning processes develop casually during informal
conversations among family members that draw on similar experiences and
constructs of the organizational environment and challenges emanating
environmental dynamics. In contrast to family managed firms, managers that are in
an employment relationships, for instance in the destination managements and cable
car companies of the case-destinations, are f o r m a l l y a c c o u n t a b l e to their
employers, e.g. the organization’s shareholders (cf. section 6.2.2). They are therefore
formally required to articulate their ideas and negotiate them with others. This
pattern corresponds to the findings on the role of external stimuli to initiate
managers’ learning processes about consequences of and responses to climate change
(cf. section 6.1.3: 152). As a consequence planning decisions in this type of
organizations were found to be less intuitive than in family managed organizations
and stronger based on information about the organizational environment, like
climate change (i n f o r m e d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g ).
Figure 6.3: Inductively developed typology of
case-organizations with respect to
size, ownership structure and the
degree of formalization of
information management routines
172
The majority (10 out of 11) of the inquired businesses in this category are
family managed with one or two persons responsible for business planning
and strategic decisions, assisted by additional service staff. Managers of these
businesses collect and process information about climate change in a passive
manner in that they perceive the information, the mass media provides to
them. These information management processes vary strongly between
managers – from paying continuous attention to randomly picking up
climate-change related information. Businesses in the accommodation and
gastronomy sector do not involve in active search processes with regard to
climate information – in contrast to the information management of the
organizations of the two other information-management types, particularly
to those with more financial resources in hand with the possibility to
participate in expert discussions as well as invite climate experts. However,
active information search and interpretation does take place with regard to
information on tourism demand and present tourism trends, a topic that
traditionally belongs to the core interest of tourism businesses. The
dissemination of information appears in informal talks among the managers
or through tourism associations.
Box 6.4: Information management of the individual tourism firms
(accommodation, gastronomy, ski school)
173
Table 6.11: Information capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Evidences about relevant dynamics in the
organizational environment
• Knowledge on options to respond to the
dynamics in the organizational environment
• Perceived personal and organizational respons-
•
•
•
•
• Thematic breadth and depth of organizational
information pool
• Degree of informed investment decisions with
respect to climate change
6.3.2
ibility to deal with the impacts of climate
change
Financial and human capital (size of organization)
Ownership structure of organization (formal
accountabilities, responsibilities)
Organizational routines to identify relevant
environmental signals and process information
(continuity, formalization, intensity, proactiviy)
Manifestness of environmental signals (reinforced by the public discourse)
• Environmental scanning and organizational
information management
Human capital
In the prior section the organizational information capital has been identified as
important resource for organizational planning with climate change. In particular the
role of information management routines of organizations has been examined with
respect to developing information capital on the climatic environment of the
organizations.
However, the case studies show that managing information on the organizational
environment and on options to respond to environmental dynamics do not exist
independently of the persons executing these processes. Quite to the contrary,
particularly in small family managed business organizations that dominate the local
tourism economies in the two case-destinations organizational planning processes
have a very informal, intuitive character and therefore to a large extent depend on the
managers’ capabilities to manage information (cf. section 6.3.1, table 3.10: 101).
Therefore these capabilities are conceptualized as a separate organizational resource
174
type complementary to information capital that reflects organizational routines
independent from the personal characteristics of the executing managers:
The contributions of managers’ personal capabilities to the processes of
organizational planning with climate change have been conceptualized in the
resource category of organizational h u m a n c a p i t a l (cf. section 3.5.1: 94). The
category comprises the managements’ i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p a b i l i t i e s as well as their
stocks of p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e s a n d k n o w l e d g e that shape managers
approaches to plan with climate change. The case studies suggest that the human
capital influences the processes of l e a r n i n g about climate change in the business
organizations as well as the d e v e l o p m e n t o f c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s .
The impact of the scope of managers’ past experiences with local climatic conditions
on the interpretation of new experiences has been described earlier (cf. section 6.1.1
on page 148). The analysis suggests that a long time horizon of personal experiences
brings managers to attribute shorter-term extreme events to a longer-term climatic
pattern and to understand the inherent variability of the local climate. This can be
considered as the traditional e x p l a n a t o r y p a t t e r n o f w e a t h e r a n d c l i m a t e
p h e n o m e n a in which warm winter seasons are perceived as unpleasant singular
events within a generally beneficial winter climate. The case studies suggest that this
traditional explanatory pattern reduces the motivation to respond to novel climate
trends. In contrast ‘newcomers’ that cannot draw on a long t i m e h o r i z o n o f
p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h t h e l o c a l c l i m a t e bring in new explanatory
patterns in which events such as warm winter seasons are assigned to an overall
warming trend which in turn contributes to their motivation to invest into response
measures.
The s t o c k o f e x p e r i e n c e s that managers can access also contributes to the
process of d e v e l o p i n g c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s . Climate responses, particularly
those to expand beyond the current business products, represent business innovations
that offer some kind of business opportunity (cf. section 3.3.1). Such innovations in
the case studies have found to be inspired by managers’ e x p e r i e n c e s b e y o n d
t h e i r c u r r e n t l o c a l t o u r i s m b u s i n e s s : by working experiences in
international leading hotel businesses, volunteer involvements and secondary
employments as well as active travel experiences in other tourist destinations.
175
Prior analyses on the role of human capital in organizational planning with climate
change highlight the importance of education in this context (cf. section 3.5.1: 94).
However, in contrast to the experiential background of managers the case studies do
not reveal a clear pattern with regard to the impact of managers’ level of formal
education on their motivation and ability to implement climate responses. Given the
vocational trainings of the managers in the case studies presumably none of them has
received t r a i n i n g a b o u t c l i m a t e c h a n g e in their higher education. That
could be an explanation why no relations between different levels of knowledge about
scientific evidences on climate phenomena as well as the individual interpretations of
these evidences (cf. section 6.1.1) and managers’ educational backgrounds could be
identified.
Table 6.12: Human capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Manager’s intellectual capabilities
• Managers’ explanatory patterns of weather and
• Manager’s stocks of knowledge and experiences
climate phenomena
• Time horizon of managers’ personal experiences with the local climate
• Learning processes about climate change (e.g.
• Collecting experiences beyond the current
interpretation of climate and weather
phenomena)
• Development of climate responses
6.3.3
tourism core-business
• Education (training about climate change)
Financial capital
The organization’s financial capital stocks are composed of the organizations’ o w n
c a p i t a l and accessible e x t e r n a l c a p i t a l . Depending on their financial capital the
businesses are able to deploy human resources for their i n f o r m a t i o n
m a n a g e m e n t on climate change (cf. section 6.3.1: 168). In the case studies the
businesses’ access to financial resources influences their c a p a c i t y t o i n n o v a t e in
that it limits their s c o p e o f p o s s i b l e i n v e s t m e n t s . The feedback loops
‘r e v e n u e – i n v e s t m e n t s – p r o d u c t q u a l i t y – d e m a n d – r e v e n u e ’
that have been identified as dominant patterns in the local tourism economies of
both destinations reveal the importance of the available financial capital not least for
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the a b i l i t y t o i m p l e m e n t c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s (cf. chapter A.1.1: downward
spiral in destination A, page 268; upward spiral in destination B, page 274). The
scope of possible investments has also been found to restrict the t i m e h o r i z o n o f
o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g when managers do not consider it reasonable to set
up longer-term strategies without perceiving the financial capacity to realize them
The businesses in the case studies vary in the degree they have access to financial
capital. The majority of investments in the case studies are financed through external
sources such as loan capital and subsidies. Hence the financial capital of the business
is also influenced by the w i l l i n g n e s s o f b a n k s t o g r a n t l o a n s . In this respect
the case studies indicate the banks’ evaluations of the businesses’ creditworthiness
further add to the economic upward or downward spirals addressed in the previous
paragraph by facilitating or not facilitating investments into the quality of the
tourism products (cf. section 6.3.5: 182). G a i n i n g a c c e s s t o s u b s i d i e s in
order to develop one’s stock of financial capital has been found to be linked with the
organizations’ h u m a n c a p i t a l as it draws on the knowledge and experiences of
managers in terms of subsidies policies. R e s o u r c e s h a r i n g among businesses in
terms of joint investments is applied as a further resource development strategy even
though it does not appear in context of an explicit climate response strategy. The
comparison of cases across the two destinations suggests that the willingness of
businesses to commit themselves to a joint investment is influenced by a general
l o c a l c o o p e r a t i v e s p i r i t . In this regard both destinations vary considerably
between ‘united we stand’ in destination B and a spirit of ‘fending for oneself ’ in
destination A (cf. chapter A.1.1: 270 and 274).
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Table 6.13: Financial capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Organizational financial capital
• Human capital: knowledge and experiences of
• Accessible external financial capital
managers in terms of subsidies policies to
access external financial capital
• Willingness of banks to grant loans
• Local cooperative spirit among organizations
• Scope of information management
• Increasing revenues by improving
• Capacity to innovate
• Scope of possible investments
• Ability to implement climate responses
• Time horizon of organizational investments
6.3.4
quality of tourism products
• Gaining access to subsidies and loan capital
• Resource sharing among organizations (e.g.
joint investments among local firms)
Social capital
Social capital of businesses appears in the case studies in terms of relations to other
organizations that provide a c c e s s t o t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n , h u m a n a n d
f i n a n c i a l c a p i t a l . A further aspect of social capital that appeared in the case
studies is the ability of the individual business to exert influence on joint investment
decisions. This p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e allows it individual businesses to give
direction to a joint response strategy in a way that increases the benefits for the own
business.
The intensity of relations among the businesses influences the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
l e a r n i n g processes about climate change and feasible responses through the
e x c h a n g e o f i n f o r m a t i o n a n d e x p e r i e n c e s within formal or informal
settings. The exchange on the one hand takes place through the l o c a l
i n f o r m a t i o n n e t w o r k s , with local tourism associations, destination
management organizations and cable car operators being important network hubs
(cf. section 6.3.1, figure A.5: 265). However, the information management of local
organizations also draws on resources of e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n n e t w o r k s ,
such as regional and national cable car associations (cf. box 6.2: 169).
The comparison between the social networks in the two destinations revealed that the
two networks differ in terms of their m u l t i p l e x i t y as well as the i n t e n s i t y of the
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individual ties (cf. figure A.5:265). Two general interest groups have been identified
to shape the local tourism networks of both case-destinations: The group of
innovators consists of organizations whose managers are considering business
strategies that question and go beyond the traditional local tourism products. The
group of traditionalists consists of old-established organizations whose managers are
rather interested to continue business strategies that have been established over the
past decades. In the interaction of these two groups two basic patterns have been
identified that illuminate the role of social capital with respect to the innovation
character of climate responses:
In destination A the group of innovative organizations are managed by persons that
either entered the local tourism economy from outside or in fact grew up in the
destination, but spent a substantial period of their working life in other regions or
countries. These managers bring along a c r i t i c a l o u t s i d e v i e w on traditional
business practices and have the ability to fundamentally reconsider these practices.
From a destination perspective the group of innovators increase the overall
d i v e r s i t y o f b u s i n e s s o p t i o n s in the local tourism economy, including
climate response options. However, two social phenomena inhibit the availability of
this diversity for the local community. First, the availability depends on the
m o t i v a t i o n o f i n n o v a t o r s t o s h a r e t h e i r i d e a s with other organizations.
Lacking p e r s o n a l a t t a c h m e n t a n d i d e n t i f i c a t i o n to the local community,
a perception that is enforced by a limited p e r s o n a l f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e in the
destination, reduce this motivation (planned cessation of the business,
cf. section 6.2.3). Second, the traditionalists exhibit a skeptical a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s
n e w c o m e r s and are passively or actively blocking novel development ideas. The
last two managers of the local cable car operator, for instance that both had planned
substantial investments and restructuring of their business such as establishing a
summer business both had to withdraw from their positions after massive resistance
from local organizational shareholders.
The local tourism network in destination B is shaped by a different relationship
between innovators and traditionalists that reveal an additional contribution of social
capital for climate responses as business innovations. In destination B the innovators
have captured key p o s i t i o n s i n l o c a l n e t w o r k h u b s (tourism association,
destination management, cable car operator, cf. figure A.5 in the annex, page 265).
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They are united by a m u t u a l i n t e r e s t i n i n n o v a t i n g the local tourism
products in order to open up new business opportunities. Their network is
characterized by general l o c a l c o o p e r a t i v e s p i r i t that is expressed by the
organizations’ w i l l i n g n e s s t o a d d c a p i t a l t o a j o i n t r e s o u r c e p o o l in
order to plan and implement concerted development strategies (cf. section 6.3.3).
The formation of a tight and strong network of organizations in destination B that in
addition have access to substantial i n d i v i d u a l f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s allow them
to develop voluminous and concerted strategies that involve both deliberate and nondeliberate response options. Besides this possibility to i n c r e a s e t h e s c o p e o f
f e a s i b l e c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e i n v e s t m e n t s the joint network resources
furthermore allow these organizations to exert p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e by shaping
the general development direction of the local tourism economy (image, marketing).
In contrast, the sub-network of small boarding houses in destination B as well as the
overall business network in destination A in contrast can draw on far less network
resources to implement to business innovations or climate responses respectively.
Box 6.5 on page 180 illustrates along the example of mountain biking infrastructure
how the pooling of financial resources and planning efforts among businesses can
enhance their a b i l i t y t o i n v e s t into climate responses. The example also
illustrates how a lack of m u t u a l i n t e r e s t can impede innovations beyond the level
of the individual business and eventually reduces the n u m b e r o f f e a s i b l e
climate response options .
180
The development of an infrastructure for mountain biking in both
destinations A and B is considered a promising strategy by the important
players of the local tourism sector to enhance the local summer tourism
business. In destination A the idea is part of a climate response strategy that is
aimed to reduce the destination’s economic dependency to the winter season.
In destination B the idea belongs to a strategy of extending the overall revenue
of the businesses. The social capital perspective provides a plausible rationale
to explain why the idea already has been implemented in destination B, but
seems to be unlikely to be implemented in destination A in the near future.
D e s t i n a t i o n A – C o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t : Even though the idea of a
mountain biking offer is widely supported by the local tourism business
network in destination A it cannot be implemented due to the resistance of
the landholders, mostly farmers and hunters, to provide their land for the new
offer. As many of them do not personally benefit from the local tourism
economy, the local tourism businesses as well as the local administration has
surrendered in trying to come to a mutual agreement among the parties.
Eventually this latent conflict of interest reduces the response options of
destination A.
D e s t i n a t i o n B – Po o l i n g o f r e s o u r c e s : In destination B the idea
to implement an infrastructure for mountain bikers could be implemented by
the joint efforts of a group of local tourism businesses with access to
substantial financial resources and their joint drive for innovations. Their
individual resources and joint efforts assisted them to overcome initial
skepticism and passive resistance of other local tourism firms. The pooling of
financial resources allowed building up a top-of-the-class offer that increased
the summer business of the local cable car and the total number of summer
tourists substantially. Albeit not considered explicitly as climate response this
example of destination B illustrates how social capital can enhance the ability
of business to invest in response measures.
Box 6.5: Illustration: impact of social capital on the implementation of mountain
biking infrastructure in destinations A and B
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Table 6.14: Social capital: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Multiplexity of relations with organizations of
• Financial resources of individual organizations
the local and external tourism business
• Intensity of relations with organizations of the
local and external tourism business in terms of
resource flows
• Position of organization in relation to local
network hubs
• Willingness to add capital to a joint resource
pool
• Motivation organizations (innovators) to share
•
•
•
•
•
• Access and exchange to information, human
•
•
•
•
and financial capital (resource development,
organizational learning)
Individual benefit of joint actions (political
influence)
Critical outside view on managers individual
perspectives in business planning
Diversity of feasible climate response options
Scope of feasible climate response investments
6.3.5
ideas
Attitude towards newcomers and their ideas
Organizations’ mutual interest in innovations
Local cooperative spirit among businesses
Manager’s personal attachment to and identification with the community (social commitment)
Manager’s personal future perspective in the
local tourism business (time commitment)
• Accessing and developing networks (e.g. local
and trans-local information network
• Exchange of resources (e.g., information and
experiences)
Decision autonomy
Each of the local tourism economies in the destinations A and B functions as an
interdependent system of resource flows. In this system each business organization
draws on resources internal or external to the organization in order to develop its
individual tourism product to attract tourists. These tourism products in turn
represent resources for other businesses as they contribute to the overall tourism
product of the destination (cf. table 4.2: 113). The a u t o n o m y
of
o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o a c t o u t t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s p l a n s as well
as the a u t o n o m y o f m a n a g e r s t o d e c i d e u p o n t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n
o f c l i m a t e r e s p o n s e s is shaped by resource relations with different levels of the
local tourism system that they are embedded into. The systemic relations in the case
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studies refer to resource flows within the individual organization (micro-level), the
destination’s tourism economy (meso-level), and to resource relations with players
beyond the destination level (macro-level). The category of decision autonomy of
managers in the case studies is shaped by factors on all three levels. Representing the
degree managers can autonomously utilize organizational resources, the category has
been constituted in terms of an organizational meta-resource.
On the micro-level managers are embedded into their organization’s structure that
evolves from a particular d e c i s i o n h i e r a r c h y, and the p r i o r i t i e s a n d
p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n s o f o t h e r m e m b e r s of the organization. The
organizational structure has an impact on the managers’ a b i l i t y t o a c t o u t
t h e i r p e r s o n a l c o m m i t m e n t s t o r e s p o n d to climate variability and trends
On the meso-level the case studies show that envisaged climate response measures of
businesses might only work within a concerted and agreed response strategy within
the destination (cf. section 6.3.4, box 6.5: 180). Thereby not only the
implementation of own climate response plans can be constrained – also the
n e c e s s i t y a r i s e s t o i n t e g r a t e o t h e r s’ c o m m i t m e n t s t o r e s p o n d to
climate change that are possibly reaching farther. Managers of key organizations like
the cable car operators or the destination managements claim that it would not make
sense to introduce a climate response that is not backed by the local accommodation
and gastronomy businesses. The case studies suggest that the d e p e n d e n c y o n
m u t u a l s u p p o r t holds true for the opposite direction, when for instance new
products for summer tourism depend on the operation of the cable car in summer
season.
With respect to the macro-level businesses depend on external funding of federal
organizations as well of banks to realize climate responses (cf. section 6.3.3). The
provision with external financial capital comes along with conditions that restrict the
degree a manager can decide autonomously upon the implementation of climate
responses and ties the business planning to the p l a n n i n g p r i o r i t i e s a n d
planning horizons of other organizations .
On all three levels the b u i l d i n g o f p e r s o n a l o r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
r e p u t a t i o n , for instance in terms of creditworthiness, trustworthiness and
attributed competence, has been identified as process to increase the decision
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autonomy with respect to the whole organization as well as internally from the
managers’ perspectives.
Table 6.15: Decision autonomy: enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change
• Managers’ ability to act out personal business
• Intra-organizational resource dependencies
• Ability to act out personal commitments to
• Reputation building (intra- and extra-organiza-
plans
• Organizational ability to act out organizational
business plans
respond to climate change
• Necessity to integrate others commitments to
respond to climate change
(micro level)
• Organizational decision hierarchy
• Organizational planning priorities and
planning horizons
• Extra-organizational resource dependencies:
inside local tourism economy / destination
(meso level)
• Resources: dependency on external
support / joint action
• Planning priorities and planning horizons
of local business partners
• Extra-organizational resource dependencies:
beyond local tourism economy / destination
(macro level)
• Resources: dependency on external
support / joint action
• Planning priorities and planning horizons
of trans-local organizations and institutions (e.g. conditions for accessing loan
capital)
tional)
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6.4 Synopsis – enablers and inhibitors of responses to
climate change in the case-organizations
In the previous sections detailed observations about the conditions under which
climate responses were planned and implemented in the case-organizations have been
presented. The level of detail results from the research motivation to interpret and
understand business planning with climate change from the perspective of individual
organizations that has been subsumed in research question Q 1 and therefore taking
case-organizational subtleties into account. Against the background of the qualitative,
interpretative research approach that has been applied, the findings need to be
regarded as context-specific hypotheses (cf. section 5.4.2).
Based on the general epistemological framework set up by research question Q 1, the
case study results suggest a systematic of four categories that facilitate the
understanding of the phenomenon ‘climate change’ from the real-world perspective
of organizational business planning: (i) organizational characteristics that have been
associated with organizational responses to climate impacts, (ii) contextual factors
that constitute the regarded organizational characteristics, (iii) organizational
processes by which the factors constitute the organizational characteristics, and (iv)
the impacts of the organizational processes on the organizational characteristics,
thereby shaping response strategies (cf. figure 6.1: 140).
The categorization emanates from dominant patterns of business planning in the
context of climate change that have been disclosed in the empirical analysis. It
represents an empirical grounded framework for integrating the enablers and
inhibitors of responses to climate change in the case-organizations that lie in the
center of research question Q 2. The rationale of this synopsis is to sum up the case
study findings and to recapitulate salient interrelations between key determinants of
organizational responses to climate change, such as organizational resources and
capabilities and their impacts together with organizational processes that trigger these
impacts. On the basis of these findings, conclusions on the ‘capacity of response’ of
the case-organizations in the context of climate change can be drawn (cf. research
question Q 3, see chapter 8.2).
In line with the hitherto description of the results, the synopsis is structured along
the three main categories of organizational characteristics that have been associated
SYNOPSIS – ENABLERS AND INHIBITORS OF RESPONSES TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE CASE-ORGANIZATIONS
185
with organizational responses to climate impacts, comprising eleven components
(cf. figure A.8: 323). By dint of these categories enabling and inhibiting factors and
processes of climate responses can be integrated.
The a w a r e n e s s of the organization’s economic impacts of climate change shapes
the relevance of climatic factors in business planning activities and the motivation to
take responsive action. The integration of knowledge about climate impacts and
information about feasible response strategies contributes to the ability of
organizations to plan and implement appropriate responses to the impacts of climate
change. Being aware of organizational challenges and opportunities imposed by
climate change as well as appropriate response options is not sufficient, though, to act
out these options – it requires both c o m m i t m e n t to take responsive actions and
the r e s o u r c e s to facilitate the investments involved. This implies that effective
responses to climate change in the case-organizations require an interplay among all
three factors and are impeded as soon of one of these factors falls short.
In the following, the relevance of the three main categories of the organizational
conditions of responses to climate change will be summarized along their eleven
components. The respective paragraphs provide a synthesis of the case study results. It
comprises a brief definition of the components, their impacts on organizational
responses to climate change as well as intra- and extra-organizational factors and
processes that determine these impacts. The synthesis serves as the basis to refine the
concept ‘capacity of response’ with respect to the perspective of business planning in
the case-destinations as well as to suggest strategies for developing the capacity of
response in the case-organizations.
6.4.1
Awareness
Constructs of the exposure to climate change
The construct of organizational managers of the exposure to climate change refers
both to the risk of experiencing p h y s i c a l i m p a c t s of climate change and the
resulting magnitude of e c o n o m i c a l i m p a c t s on the organization. The
(un)a m b i g u i t y of the managers’ constructs about these impacts influences the
186
perceived r e l e v a n c e of c l i m a t e p h e n o m e n a for b u s i n e s s p l a n n i n g as well
as the d i r e c t n e s s of p o t e n t i a l r e s p o n s e s to these phenomena. The construct
results from integrating p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e s of the physical and economical
impacts of climate and weather phenomena with e x t e r n a l e v i d e n c e s on these
issues (e.g., media coverage, scientific expertise) that also provide prospective
information on these impacts. In this respect, the integration process depends on the
managers’ c o n c e p t u a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g of climate variability and climate change
as well as their p e r s o n a l b e l i e f in the latter. It is further influenced by the
a c c e s s i b i l i t y of i n f o r m a t i o n , including the time scope of the managers’
personal experiences with the local climate that serves as reference to assess external
evidences. In integrating these evidences, managers are guided by their perceived
r e l i a b i l i t y of the different sources of evidence.
Constructs of the sensitivity to climate impacts
The construct of organizational managers of the sensitivity of the organizational
economical performance to climate change refers both to s h o r t e r -t e r m i m p a c t s
(crises), resulting from extreme events and to l o n g e r -t e r m i m p a c t s , resulting
from shifts in the local climate means. Both are linked to managers’ assessment of
their organizations’ p r e s e n t and f u t u r e a d a p t n e s s to shorter- and longer-term
impacts of climate change. The construct influences the managers’ perceived
r e l e v a n c e of c l i m a t e p h e n o m e n a for b u s i n e s s p l a n n i n g as well as their
m o t i v a t i o n to i m p l e m e n t m e a s u r e s to respond to the respective challenges or
opportunities. The managers’ constructs are shaped by l e a r n i n g from their
e x p e r i e n c e s with economic impact of past extreme events as well as their
a s s u m p t i o n s about whether or not extreme events relate to an overall climate
trend.
Realm of considered response options
The realm of considered business options to respond to climate change refers to
organizational strategies and measures that are considered feasible and appropriate to
respond the s h o r t e r - t e r m i m p a c t s of c l i m a t e and w e a t h e r e x t r e m e s
(crisis management) and/or to the i m p a c t s of l o n g e r -t e r m c l i m a t e c h a n g e
(adaptation management). The realm of response options influences how direct
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existing or assumed economic challenges and opportunities can and are supposed to
be approached. It is shaped by an interrelated and recursive process of d e l i b e r a t e
r e a s o n i n g about the organizational adaptness to climate change, potential climate
impacts and response options. In this respect, also the perceived n o v e l t y,
m a n i f e s t n e s s and c e r t a i n t y of e c o n o m i c i m p a c t s , resulting from climate
change, has an influence on the perceived appropriateness of organizational
responses. The reasoning processes draw on existing o r g a n i z a t i o n a l r o u t i n e s
and p r o d u c t s , managers’ i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p a b i l i t i e s as well as their bodies of
p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e a n d k n o w l e d g e that serve as bases for developing
response strategies. The realm of response options is limited by an organization’s
f i n a n c i a l c a p a c i t y that is also reflected by proactive or fatalistic positions among
managers in dealing with climate change.
6.4.2
Commitment
Priorities of investment incentives
Incentives for organizational investments emanate from both the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l
e n v i r o n m e n t as well as from the managers’ p e r s o n a l i n t e r e s t s and agendas.
Against the background of organizational resource constraints the investment
incentives are prioritized with respect to their implementation. The relevance that
managers attach to climate change in comparison to other investment incentives
influences their perceived n e e d and m o t i v a t i o n to i n v e s t into response
measures. Given that most investments do not relate to one particular incentive
alone, the priority of climate change as investment incentive is also reflected to what
degree an investment (e.g. in extending the snowmaking capacity) is based on and
oriented towards a particular assumption of climate change. The identification of
environmental incentives is based on formalized of informal organizational schemes
of e n v i r o n m e n t s c a n n i n g that depend in their scope on accessible f i n a n c i a l
r e s o u r c e s as well as the degree to which b u s i n e s s m a n a g e m e n t in general is
g e a r e d to the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t . Balancing the co-benefits and
trade-offs of climate responses among different investment strategies is influenced by
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managers’ r i s k p r o p e n s i t i e s as well as the m a n i f e s t n e s s and c e r t a i n t y of
climate signals.
Responsibility to implement climate responses
The responsibilities to implement organizational responses to climate change
comprise the assumed p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y to take action and the
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t h a t i s a t t r i b u t e d to other organizations or institutions for
dealing with the local impacts of climate change. The way that these responsibilities
are assumed influences the personal m o t i v a t i o n to r e s p o n d to climate change
and the m o t i v a t i o n to i n f l u e n c e o t h e r s to make respective investments. These
assumptions are shaped by mutually c o m m u n i c a t i n g and a d o p t i n g
e x p e c t a t i o n s among different actors, by formal and informal a s s i g n m e n t s of
t a s k s and a c c o u n t a b i l i t i e s to organizations and their managers. C o m m u n i t y
b u i l d i n g on the local level increases the perceived individual responsibilities to
respond to climate change in terms of joint investments as well as in terms of
providing services to other local organizations.
Planning horizon
The planning horizon represents the time orientation of business planning in terms
of three different aspects that influence the commitment to implement organizational
responses to climate change: First, the t i m e h o r i z o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l
f o r e s i g h t that means to what extent prospective information about the
organizational environment is collected and assessed, influences managers levels of
i n t e r e s t in l o n g e r - t e r m c l i m a t e c h a n g e for business planning. This time
horizon is restricted by f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s for environmental scanning activities
as well as assumptions on the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of future climate contingencies.
Second, the t i m e h o r i z o n in which i n v e s t m e n t s are supposed to pay-off
restricts the scope of potential responses to climate change. This horizon is restricted
by r e q u i r e m e n t s of business partners (e.g., banks), individual m a n a g e m e n t
p a r a d i g m s and the moment of the m a n a g e r ’s w i t h d r a w a l from the business
and her/his perceived r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s towards firm successors (e.g., family
descendants). Thirdly, dependent on this investment horizon the expected
m o m e n t , when the organizational i m p a c t s of c l i m a t e c h a n g e are to become
189
manifest might be beyond the time horizon, considered as relevant for businesses
planning. Thereby the overall i n t e r e s t to further look into the subject of c l i m a t e
c h a n g e can be reduced.
6.4.3
Resources
Information capital
The organization’s information capital consists of evidences about dynamics in the
o r g a n i z a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t , including climate parameters, and knowledge
on o p t i o n s to r e s p o n d to these dynamics. It is characterized by its t h e m a t i c
b r e a d t h of different environmental aspects and its t h e m a t i c d e p t h in the
comprehension of these issues. This organizational resource is the basis for
i n f o r m e d b u s i n e s s p l a n n i n g with respect to climate change such as estimating
and balancing the benefit of particular climate response over the short and the long
term. With respect to climate responses, the information capital is developed by
organizational i n f o r m a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t r o u t i n e s to identify and process
evidences about the local climatic conditions. These routines draw on organizations
f i n a n c i a l and h u m a n c a p i t a l . Furthermore, the scope of organizations’
information management on climate issues is influenced by perceived personal and
organizational r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s to respond to the impacts of climate change.
Human capital
The organization’s human capital consists of its accessible i n t e l l e c t u a l
c a p a b i l i t i e s and the bodies of personal k n o w l e d g e a n d e x p e r i e n c e . It
drives the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e a r n i n g processes about the physical and economical
i m p a c t s of climate change as well as the development of feasible organizational
r e s p o n s e s . In small organizations the human capital is primarily represented by
their m a n a g e r s . They shape the organizational learning processes on climate
change by introducing their individual e x p l a n a t o r y p a t t e r n s about the origin of
weather and climate phenomena, their t i m e h o r i z o n o f p e r s o n a l
190
e x p e r i e n c e s with the local climate as well as by contributing their business
experiences, including starting points for potential climate responses.
Financial capital
The organization’s financial capital consists on the f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s o w n e d
by the o r g a n i z a t i o n and accessible e x t e r n a l f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s (e.g.,
resources of business partners, loan capital, subsidies). It provides the basis for an
organization’s i n f o r m a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t about the impacts of climate change.
The financial capital contributes to the organization’s c a p a c i t y to i n n o v a t e in
terms of the a b i l i t y to p l a n and i m p l e m e n t r e s p o n s e s to climate change and
the s c o p e and t i m e h o r i z o n of possible i n v e s t m e n t s . The organizations own
financial resources are closely connected to the revenue as the result of the q u a l i t y
of its tourism products. External capital are accessed by gaining access to l o a n
c a p i t a l and s u b s i d i e s which depends both on the k n o w l e d g e and
e x p e r i e n c e s of managers in terms of subsidies policies and the w i l l i n g n e s s of
banks to grant loans. R e s o u r c e - s h a r i n g among local businesses (e.g. joint
investments), based on a local c o o p e r a t i v e s p i r i t , is used as further strategy to
access external financial capital.
Social capital
The organization’s social capital arises from the m u l t i p l e x i t y of its relations to
other organizations of the local and trans-local tourism business, the i n t e n s i t y of
these relations in terms of resource flows and its p r o x i m i t y to local network hubs
(e.g. tourism associations, local business leaders). Social capital allows the access to
e x t e r n a l h u m a n and f i n a n c i a l c a p i t a l that in turn contributes to the
d i v e r s i t y of feasible response options and the s c o p e of – potentially joint –
investments. The access to and development of networks resources to invest into
climate responses is controlled by organizations’ m u t u a l i n t e r e s t in this type of
innovation and their w i l l i n g n e s s to c o n t r i b u t e to a joint resource pool in terms
of information capital (sharing of knowledge, experiences, ideas) and financial
capital. In this respect the local c o o p e r a t i v e s p i r i t and managers’ individual
i d e n t i f i c a t i o n with the local business community play an important role. The
volume and diversity of the social capital is further enriched by the r e a d i n e s s of
191
existing networks to integrate n e w and potentially o p p o s i n g p e r s p e c t i v e s on
business planning with climate change, such as newcomers in the local tourism
economy that contribute with a critical outside view.
Decision autonomy
The organization’s decision autonomy has been identified as an organizational metaresource. It refers to the c o n t r o l of organizations and their managers over accessible
resources that enables them to act out their commitments to respond to climate
change. An organization’s decision autonomy is reduced by intra- or extra
organizational r e s o u r c e d e p e n d e n c i e s that require taking into account
e x t e r n a l p l a n n i n g p r i o r i t i e s and p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n s . The degree of
decision autonomy therefore also implies the necessity to integrate potentially
diverging commitments of other internal or external actors that also have a voice in
using the resources. Internally the decision autonomy depends on the organizational
d e c i s i o n s t r u c t u r e a n d h i e r a r c h i e s . Externally it is shaped by m u t u a l
a g r e e m e n t s with business partners or r e q u i r e m e n t s set by them. In both ways
the decision autonomy is closely linked to organizations and managers b u s i n e s s
reputation.
7. Discussion
Chapter Contents
7.1 Discussion of the research approach.............................................196
7.1.1 Case sampling....................................................................................................196
7.1.2 Empirical inquiry...............................................................................................198
7.1.3 Coding and interpretation..................................................................................199
7.1.4 Synopsis: Contributions of the qualitative embedded case study approach with
respect to the research motivations.....................................................................200
7.2 Discussion of the findings............................................................202
7.2.1 Integrating the empirical findings with the state of research...............................202
Awareness of climate challenges and feasible responses.......................................................203
Commitment to respond to climate change......................................................................209
Resources to respond to climate change.............................................................................212
7.2.2 Transferring the empirical findings to the Alpine winter tourism industry.........216
Case selection process......................................................................................................217
Comparison with prior studies .......................................................................................219
Synthesis........................................................................................................................220
DISCUSSION
195
T
he case study findings that have been synthesized in chapter 6.4 provide
insights on the organizational perspective of business planning in the
context of climate change. These insights emanate from a qualitative case
study approach that has been designed to explore the social science perspective in the
field of climate impact research. They provide the basis for grounded theory building
with respect to the formulated research questions in the conclusions section of this
thesis. The listed characteristics of the empirical findings call for a reflection of both
their content and their generation for several reasons.
The reflection of the methodological approach provides indications on potential
weak spots in the results in terms of their substantiation and comprehensiveness.
Given that the social science perspective in climate impact research has gained major
attention only recently and qualitative research approaches, represent important
means to open up this young research field by grounded theory development, the
reflection of the realized research approach can provide important lessons learned for
future research.
The reflection of the findings, particularly with respect to the question how the case
study findings related to other destinations in the Alpine winter tourism industry
represents a basic process in the validation and substantiation of qualitative research
findings. Discussing the validity and transferability of the findings beyond the
context of the case studies is a prerequisite for grounded theory building in the
broader population of business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry.
Following this rationale the chapter is structured as follows: In chapter 7.1 the
applied empirical research approach is critically discussed with respect to the
formulated research motivations of this thesis. Lessons learned on the design and
application of the research approach are provided. Chapter 7.2 reflects the case study
findings against the background of prior empirical studies in the research field and
discusses the transferability of the results.
196
CHAPTER 7. DISCUSSION
7.1 Discussion of the research approach
The empirical research part of this thesis has been motivated by existing research gaps
with respect to business planning in the context of climate change with particular
focus on the Alpine winter tourism industry. An embedded case study methodology
has been designed and applied in order to meet the resulting research motivations
that have been formulated in chapter 4.2 (page 110). In short, they highlight the
importance...
•
to strengthen the social science perspective in the – so far mostly natural science –
field of climate impact research and
•
to understand the real-world perspective of business planning in the context of
climate change, particularly by exploring the inside perspective of business
organizations and developing an integrated vision on the local planning contexts
in order
•
to refine the meaning of the concept ‘capacity of response’ that proves useful both
from a scientific perspective as well as from a perspective of practical applicability.
Given the limited prior qualitative insights in the research context of this thesis, a
reflection of the chosen research approach appears to be a necessary contribution to
the above formulated motivations. In the following, important lessons learned are
discussed along the basic methodological steps. Concluding, a synopsis of this
discussion is given with respect to the research motivations.
7.1.1
Case sampling
Against the background of limited research resources the number of cases to be
analyzed (destinations, organizations, interview partners) has been defined with
respect to two competing objectives: the breadth of inquired data and the depth of
analysis, both contributing to the diversity and substance of the empirical data. In
accordance of the focus of this study – to add a more detailed organizational
perspective to prior, mostly quantitative large-N, studies (e.g., Wolfsegger et al. 2008,
Hoffmann et al. 2009) – the decision has been made to study 20 organizations
DISCUSSION OF THE RESEARCH APPROACH
197
within two distinct destinations, in order to allow for comparisons of the local
planning contexts. As a consequence a more comprehensive view on the conditions
of organizational responses to climate change could be developed – in comparison to
prior studies that necessarily had to work with a limited, predefined set of
explanatory factors or had to remain mostly descriptive. Against the background of
the small sample of this study, however, uncertainties remain with respect to the
diversity and substance of the empirical data. Building on this study, future research
efforts, based on a wider sample of cases, could help to validate whether the enabling
and inhibiting factors and processes represent a stable set. Given that the research to
understand the challenges of climate change from a business planning perspective is
still in its beginnings, further research in the context of the case studies could
contribute to further elaborations of the findings.
The strategy of purposive sampling, including elements of snowball-sampling
(cf. section 5.2.2: 124) has proved successful in terms of providing contrasting cases
(destinations, organizations, interview partners) whose individual characteristics at
the same time could be linked through common planning contexts (climate
sensitivity, types of business organizations, cf. ibid.). The sampling strategy allowed to
both depict a wide space of potential contexts of business planning, contributing to
the diversity of the findings and to identify stable, joined patterns, contributing to
the substance of the findings. The objective behind the sampling strategy was to
explore and understand possible and differing approaches of business planning in
Alpine tourism destinations as a response to the local impacts of climate change – the
strategy has not been targeted to provide a representative picture of business planning
with climate change in the case-destinations and beyond. Building on the case
studies’ findings, future assessments of the organizational capacity to respond to
climate change, however, would require a different, representative, sampling
approach. Albeit not aiming at representativeness, the qualitative, purposive sampling
approach allows to transfer the findings to other contexts by comparing the structural
conditions behind the results to those of other organizations and destinations (cf.
Flick 2009). In section 7.2.2 the transfer of the findings to other contexts is
discussed.
In order to increase the diversity of organizational perspectives within the limited
sample of interview partners (IP), each organization has been represented by one
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interviewed manager. This decision is justified against the background that due to the
small size of most of the case-organizations, the interviewed managers hold a very
prominent position with respect to business planning activities. Furthermore, deviant
perspectives among different organizational members could be revealed in the
interviews. However, in a further elaboration of this research field the integration of
more organizational representative could contribute to a more comprehensive, diverse
intra-organizational perspective.
7.1.2
Empirical inquiry
The phenomenon of climate change has become a highly political subject,
particularly in the context of the warm spell in the winter season 2006/07. It is
widely present in the public discourse and has induced a variety of concerns among
business organizations in the Alpine tourism industry as well as pressure on managers
to justify their planning efforts against the background of this discourse. The
methodological decision to inquire empirical data on business planning in the
context of climate change within open, narrative interview situations has proved to be
an adequate approach within this problem context. In contrast to prior studies in this
research field (e.g., Bürki 2000, Wolfsegger 2005, Hoffmann et al. 2009, cf. Sprengel
2008) the issue of climate change and its implications has not been addressed directly
by the interviewer during the major part of the interview. Thereby no pressure has
been put on the IP to justify her or his actions with respect to climate change and it
can be assumed that the social desirability bias (Nederhof 1985, Fisher 1993) has
been reduced as far as possible.
Even though the interviews consistently have been characterized by a very personal,
faithful atmosphere in which the IP willingly shared very personal and confidential
information, most IP have been reluctant to share their financial figures. As these in
general offer well operationalizable indicators for investment volume and investment
priority of climate responses, further efforts to access this data in future studies could
provide additional empirical insights, not least in the context of quantitative studies.
7.1.3
199
Coding and interpretation
The coding of the empirical data – mainly the interview transcripts, supplemented by
additional material (e.g., minutes of informal talks with case-agents,
cf. table 5.2: 127) – has been the basis for a further interpretation of the data. It has
been conducted combined deductively and inductively. The proceeding proved to be
useful to facilitate an empirically grounded extension of past findings by both
exploring and understanding the challenges of climate change from an inside
perspective of business planning and at the same time link these insights to existing
research.
One particular subject that turned out to be difficult in the coding and interpretation
process has been the classification of perceptions and actions with respect to shorterterm crises, induced by climate extremes and longer-term impacts as a consequence
of existing and prospected climate change. The notions and differences of these
scientific concepts that have been elaborated in chapters 2.1 and 3.3 of this thesis
frequently have not been reflected clearly in the interview narratives. The empirical
findings suggest that the (scientific) distinction between different phenomena and
impacts of climate change is blurred in the real-world-context of business planning.
However, the findings do not contradict the assumption that short-term and longterm impacts imply different meanings for business planning in the Alpine tourism
industry. Future research could add to a more specific focus on business planning in
the context of short-term climate crises by addressing specific crises situations, such
as the warm winter season 2006/07, and inquire experiences and learning effects
being made during these situations.
With respect to the confidentiality of the empirical data, a decision had to be made
with respect to the level of anonymization. It has been decided to anonymize the
name and exact position of the case-destination, whereby the identity of the caseorganizations remains covered. In doing so a more detailed description of the case
profiles could be generated, including details that otherwise would easily disclose the
identity of the organization or the IP. Given that the main focus of this study is the
organizational level, the gain in illustration on this level comes with a loss of vividness
on the level of the destination in the communication of the findings. While with
more public modes of data inquiry (e.g. focus groups) this trade-off could be
200
overcome in future research the lack in confidentiality would probably induce an
increase of the social-desirability bias (Nederhof 1985).
7.1.4
Synopsis: Contributions of the qualitative embedded case
study approach with respect to the research motivations
The experiences in conducting the research process have revealed the importance to
integrate the social science perspective into research on the societal vulnerabilities to
climate change in a number of ways: From a real-world perspective of business
planning in the Alpine tourism sector climate change is just one among many
challenges in the organizational environments, frequently even a rather insignificant
one in comparison to others. Disciplinary research approaches that exclusively focus
on the impacts of climate change run in danger to transfer the assumed prominence
of the phenomenon to other scientific and real-world perspectives. Even though the
projections of climate models represent a fundamental basis for decision-making and
business planning in the context of climate change, the scientific projections are not
applied in a direct way. Rather, they are mediated through different societal
communication channels and recurrently redefined. Eventually they are just one of
the sources of evidence taken into account by business managers. The social science
perspective that has been taken in the empirical part of the thesis allows for
important insights to understand these processes of societal reconstruction. Thereby
it represents a necessary component, adding to the natural-science perspective in
order to understand the conditions and barriers of societal response to the impacts of
climate change. That way, interdisciplinary research approaches could contribute to a
co-definition of climate change from an integrated natural- and social science
perspective.
Developing an inside vision of business planning in the context of climate change
requires a methodology that admits the existence of perspectives that differ from the
outside vision of existing scientific concepts and that allows to link the two.
Qualitative research approaches, like the one that has been applied in the case studies,
aim at inductive knowledge creation and allow to reconcile these insights with prior
concepts by the way of deduction. This distinguishes them from most quantitative
201
research approaches that utilize a mere deductive outside vision to explain the inside
and thereby contribute to testing and enhance existing concepts and theories (e.g.,
Wolfsegger 2005, Hoffmann et al. 2009 in the context of business planning in the
Alpine tourism business). Against the requirements that new concepts in the context
of climate change need to be developed, or existing concepts need to be redefined in
order to introduce the real-world perspective of business planning the findings of the
qualitative case studies contribute to an empirically grounded extension of past
findings and concepts, like the capacity of response concept.
Albeit business planning in the studied Alpine tourism destinations remains within
the authority of the managers of the individual organization, it is, however, shaped by
a high degree of inter-organizational dependencies. In this respect the case studies
disclosed how formal and informal networks, personal relations, assumed and
attributed responsibilities and accountabilities influence investment decisions on
organizational responses to the impacts of climate change. An embedded case study
approach, as it has been applied here, appeared to be an adequate methodology to
develop and understanding of the players within a such interconnected organizational
context. Understanding the local business environment helped to understand the
actions and motivations of the individual organizations.
The enablers and inhibitors of organizational responses to the impacts of climate
change that have been identified in the course of the embedded case studies are used
to refine the ‘capacity of response’ concept in terms of an empirically grounded
theory development (cf. chapter 8.2). The interdisciplinary research process allowed
to integrate concepts and findings of prior research that proved helpful to understand
the specific research context of this thesis. The process in turn also contributes back
to the involved disciplines by empirically re-definition and substantiation of the
concepts being used. By focusing on the real-world perspective of business planning
with climate change by the use of an embedded and interdisciplinary methodology
reduces epistemological barriers to integrate the scientific findings of the case study in
real-world planning. The practical value of the findings and conclusions, however,
remains to be proved by their application in the field of practice.
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7.2 Discussion of the findings
In line with the qualitative research approach, the presented case study findings do
not offer a representative view on business planning with climate change in the
Alpine tourism industry, but rather refer to the specific contexts of the caseorganizations (cf. Flick 2009). Nevertheless, the empirical study has been motivated
to develop an understanding on the broader population of business organizations in
Alpine tourism destinations. In order to do so, the case study findings need to be
related to the broader contextual and structural conditions, beyond those of the casedestinations (cf. Eisenhardt 1989).
In section 7.2.1 the case study findings are related to prior published empirical
studies on business planning in the context of climate change, both inside and
outside the Alpine tourism industry. A consistency of the case study findings is
revealed in large parts – either in terms of substantiating prior findings or extending
them. However, also opposing views are identified that provide starting points to
reconsider or extend the interpretations of case observations.
In section 7.2.2 the transferability of the case study findings to the Alpine winter
tourism industry are discussed along key aspects that have been suggested in the
qualitative research literature. The discussion builds both on the previous section as
well as the discussion of the research approach (chapter 7.1). It provides the basis for
conclusions on the research questions beyond the analyzed cases.
7.2.1
Integrating the empirical findings with the state of research
The findings of the embedded case studies base on observations on different
approaches of business planning in the Alpine tourism industry in the context of
climate change. The case studies were aimed to allow for a comprehensive and
integrative picture of these planning approaches in a set of 20 case-organizations
embedded within two case-destinations that are considered to represent typical as
well as contrasting types of businesses and business contexts (cf. table 6.1:138). The
objective of this section is to validate the findings as well as to augment the
observations by organizational characteristics that appear to be relevant with respect
DISCUSSION OF THE FINDINGS
203
to the research interest, but that have not been represented in the selected cases.
Therefore, the case study findings are discussed in comparison with and contrast to
earlier empirical findings that emanate from studies with a similar research interest.
In total six publications have been identified to be suitable in terms of contents and
objectives (table 7.1). The publications base on empirical studies that have been
conducted both on the Alpine tourism businesses (Austria and Switzerland) and on
businesses in other industries. Not all categories that have been addressed in the case
study findings have been subject to previous studies since each of them focused on
specific aspects of business planning in the context of climate change.
Table 7.1: Analyzed empirical studies on business planning in the context of climate change
Industry
Study
Bürki (2000)
Alpine tourism
Mayer et al. (2007)
Hoffmann et al. (2009)
Housing and water supply
Forestry
Arnell & Delaney (2006)
Berkhout (2006)
Blennow & Person (2009)
Type of data
qualitative
quantitative
qualitative
quantitative
The structure of this section is based on the three main categories of the case study
results: Aw a r e n e s s of climate challenges and feasible responses, c o m m i t m e n t
and r e s o u r c e s to respond to climate impacts. The empirical findings are discussed
along a set of analytical questions that relate to central analytic subcategories that
have been used in the interpretation of the empirical data.
Awareness of climate challenges and feasible responses
In line with the case studies prior empirical studies have identified the managers’
awareness of the challenges imposed by climate change as important determinant of
the organizational responses to these challenges in the Alpine tourism and other
industries (e.g., Hoffmann et al. 2009, Berkhout et al. 2006, Arnell & Delaney
2006). The results of these studies are related to the case study results and touch the
processes of awareness raising with respect to the exposure to climate change impacts
(i-iii: accessible information, value of information, information processing), (iv) the
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organizations’ sensitivity to it as well as (v) the conception of feasible options to
respond to resulting consequence for the organizations.
Which information on climate change is accessible?
The accessibility of information about climate change and its organizational impacts
has been addressed by earlier studies (Berkhout et al. 2006, Arnell & Delaney 2006).
With respect to direct experiences of climate signals, the rareness of such signals as
well as the uncertainty whether to attribute shifts in the occurrence of climate and
weather extreme events to a longer-term climate trend has been identified as an
obstacle for organizational learning about climate change (Berkhout et al. 2006). In
the case studies this has been found particularly true for the winter season that is
characterized by a high interannual variability and adds to the ambiguity of the
climate signal. In this regard the role of organizational resources (“monitoring and
modelling capabilities”) has found to be decisive to manage information about
climate change (ibid.: 146).
With respect to external evidences about climate change, the role of the public media
for providing publicly accessible climate information has also been subject to the
study of Arnell & Delaney (2006). They found that the intensive coverage in general
and professional media leveled out past differences in the managers’ awareness of
climate challenges. This, however, could not be observed in the case studies. In fact
the insights that managers gained about climate issues from public media was found
to differ considerably, depending on the individually perceived reliability of the
information source. This discrepancy across the study findings could be explained
through a differing relation between the public media and the respective industries
(Alpine tourism, water supply). In contrast to the water supply sector, the demand
and revenue of firms in the Alpine tourism sector highly depends on the media
coverage on destinations’ snow prospects that eventually shape their reputation
among tourists. Due to the strong economic impact of media reports – independent
on their accurateness – managers both on the case-organizations as well as those
studied by Bürki (2000) were rather skeptical towards such reports. The difference in
attitude could explain the limited impact of media coverage on these managers in
comparison to those inquired by Arnell & Delaney.
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Aside of personal experiences and external information that have been found key
evidences about climate change in the case studies, both quoted studies emphasized
the role of indirect signals from the organizational environment such as
administrative regulations to consider climate-related future indicators in their
business plans (Arnell & Delaney 2006, Berkhout et al. 2006). A possible
explanation for the fact that this issue has not appeared in the case study could be the
lower level of administrative regulation in the Alpine tourism industry in comparison
with the water supply industry. Given that particularly substantial investments not
least depend on public financial support and the willingness of banks to grant loans a
growing awareness of climate challenges in this institutions could also involve such
indirect climate change signals for Alpine tourism businesses in the future.
Which value is attached to different types of information on
climate change?
The case study findings suggest that the value that managers attach to different types
of information determines to what extent they consider evidences on climate change
in their planning process. Existing empirical studies approach this subject from three
directions: (i) the managers’ beliefs in the phenomenon of climate change,
influencing their general readiness to consider evidences on climate change; (ii) the
high perceiced reliability of personal experiences with local climatic conditions; (iii)
the skepticism towards the public media as general accessible external information
source on the issue of climate change.
Blennow & Person identified a significant link between belief in climate change and
response activities in the forestry industry (Blennow & Person 2009: 102). The case
study observation that managers’ belief in the existence of climate change influences
the way they interpret information about climate phenomena could provide a
plausible explanation for their statistical study.
The observation that personal experiences of climatic conditions in general and
climate and weather extremes in particular represent a reliable information type used
to guide decisions on climate responses is shared among studies both in and outside
the Alpine tourism industry (Arnell & Delaney 2006, Mayer et al. 2007). Arnell &
Delaney’s observation on water engineers that “traditionally assumed that past
206
experience was the best guide to future events” (Arnell & Delaney 2006: 240) has
been found a strong pattern in the case studies as well.
In their contribution to the IPCC’s forth assessment report, Adger et al. ask: “Is
adaptation constrained or facilitated by individual extreme events?” (Adger et al.
2007: 733). The studies of Bürki (2000) and Arnell & Dellaney (2006) found
indications that managers’ experience of extreme events increases their awareness of
the climate change issue for business planning. Observations in the context of the
case studies add a more differentiated perspective to these findings. On the one hand
it has been found that the experience of extreme events and their detrimental
economical impacts as a matter of course reminded managers about the necessary
ability to cope with such events. On the other hand, however, it has been found that
the experience of such events does not necessarily raise the awareness of climate
change in terms of a novel longer-term trend. In this respect the case study findings
suggest that managers with long-time experiences of the local climate conditions and
the variability of climatic conditions tend to perceive extreme events as traditional
challenges whereas newcomers that lack these experiences tend to attribute such
events to a novel trend.
The phenomenon of skepticism towards public media coverage about climate change
has already been addressed earlier in this section. It has been equally observed in
Bürki’s and Mayer et al.’s studies on the Alpine tourism sector (Bürki 2000, Mayer et
al. 2007). In line with the case study results, they agree in their analyses that a low
perceived reliability of media reports by managers not only lack influence on business
planning, but additionally impede learning about climate change through misleading
and oversimplified representation of climate phenomena.
How can the information be processed?
In the case studies it has been found that the interpretation of climate signals with
regard to organizational planning is influenced both by environmental characteristics
(degree of local climate variability) and manager’s characteristics (conceptual
understanding of climate change). The qualitative studies of Bürki (2000) and
Berkhout et al. (2006) support the interplay of these factors. In line with the case
studies Bürki identified a lack of conceptual understanding of climate variability and
climate change as obstacle for a strategic business planning with climate change
207
which is consistent with the human resources perspective of the case study results
(Bürki 2000).
Berkhout et al., however, emphasize the relevance of extra-organizational factors for
information processing capabilities such as drawing on external specialists or
redirecting resources in order to build up internal competencies as a response to
administrative regulations (Berkhout et al. 2006). To date administrative
interventions into business organizations such as regulatory requirements on which
information to include in business planning are barely conceivable and have not been
observed in the case studies. In contrast to the water supply industry in Berkhout et
al.’s study, the local tourism business is not considered as provider of a public good.
Given the local and national economic importance of many Alpine tourism
destinations and a growing risk of detrimental climate impacts it is, however,
conceivable that public bodies will offer external expertise to business organizations
on a voluntary basis in the future.
How do assumptions on the economic sensitivity to climate
change and to the motivation to respond to it evolve?
The studies of Mayer et al. (2007) and Hoffmann et al. (2009) on the Alpine tourism
industry conform with the case studies in identifying a positive impact of an
organization’s economic sensitivity to local climate conditions on managers’
motivation to respond to changes in these conditions. Mayer et al.’s and Hoffmann et
al.’s studies define the economic sensitivity as the dependency on the business in
winter season. The case study findings suggest an extended definition of the concept.
In addition to the economic dependency, the case studies revealed that the managers’
awareness of the economic sensitivity is also shaped by their perception of
organizational adaptness, i.e. the degree their organization is able to cope with
variable climatic conditions.
The study results of Arnell & Delaney (2006) raise the question whether the relation
between perceived sensitivity and response motivation is actually mediated by an
awareness of climate change. They found that a manager’s awareness of the
organization’s economic sensitivity to local climate conditions is not an indicator for
their awareness of climate change. A potential explanation can be found in the study
of Berkhout et al. (2006). By referring to the managers’ awareness of the “seriousness
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of their [organizations’] climate sensitivity” Berkhout et al. indicate that the
awareness of the organizations’ climate sensitivity needs to be coupled with an
awareness of the economic risks of this sensitivity in order to serve as an incentive for
action (Berkhout et al. 2006: 146). Thus, solely analyzing the former in an isolated
way appears to be insufficient to deduce on the motivation of organizational
managers to implement climate responses.
How are feasible response options being conceived?
The existing studies on organizational responses to climate change address three main
subjects that appear in the case study results: (i) the realm of considered response
options, (ii) dynamic capabilities that enable organizations to identify and develop
feasible response options as well as (iii) the relation between type of impact and mode
of response.
In the case studies it has been observed that the climate response options that had
been considered by managers in general were very close to the existing core products
of their businesses. The findings indicate that the climate responses that managers
consider as feasible reflect prevailing organizational routines and core competencies, a
hypothesis that is shared by both the studies of Berkhout et al. (2006) and Hoffmann
et al. (2009).
The tendency to stick to prevailing routine activities reduces the capability to explore
new business opportunities that could represent feasible climate response options
(cf. Berkhout et al. 2006, Hoffmann et al. 2009). Comparing these to studies of
Berkhout et al. and Hoffmann et al. to the case studies it becomes apparent that in
the latter the role of the manager turns out to be of particularly importance for
conceiving feasible response options. Unlike the organizations that have been
inquired for the former two studies (water supply, housing, cable car companies) the
majority of businesses in the two case-destinations are very small. Therefore, both
organizational competencies and routines are probably linked closer to the
intellectual capabilities and the experiential background of the managers in these
businesses than in their larger counter parts that can draw on a more comprehensive
human and information capital.
In the case study, the experience has been made that an external incentive (the
interview situation) might be required to trigger managers’ reflection on climate
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challenges and response options. This experience is shared by Berkhout et al. in their
process of empirical inquiry. As a consequence they emphasize the importance of
active deliberation on these subjects among managers on their capacity to respond to
climate change. By referring to environmental factors such as market and regulatory
incentives as well as accessible skills and expertise, they substantiate the role of
organization-external stimuli that has been assumed in the case study results for
initiating the learning process on climate challenges and responses. Transferred to the
Alpine tourism sector the suggested environmental stimuli could refer to initiatives of
local and trans-local tourism associations and administrative bodies to stimulate
mutual learning on the issue of climate change. Such initiatives indeed have been
reported in the case-destinations, albeit with respect of different issues (e.g.
internationalization of markets). These experiences, however, suggest that similar
initiatives could prove also feasible for learning about climate change.
Empirical inquiries in two Austrian winter sport destinations (Landeck, Kitzbühel;
Mayer et al. 2007) suggest that the degree of climate sensitivity positively impacts on
managers’ willingness to consider alternative tourism products, beyond the skiing
business. For Swiss destinations Hoffmann et al. (2009) could not confirm this
relationship and rather identified a significant link between the degree of climate
sensitivity and manager’s willingness to apply measures to protect the skiing business.
The case studies suggest that the threat of climate impacts has to be perceived both
novel and acute in order to motivate managers to expand their tourism products
beyond the skiing business. Differing assumptions on the novelty and acuteness of
climate threats could be a possible explanation for the differences across Mayer et al.’s
and Hoffmann et al.’s studies.
Commitment to respond to climate change
The category of managers’ commitment to respond to climate change has not been
addressed explicitly by earlier empirical studies that have been analyzed. Two of three
subcategory of organizational characteristics that, on the basis of the case studies,
have been classified in this categories, have been addressed earlier though, but have
not been interlinked: (i) the priority of investment into climate responses against the
background of competing investment incentives; (ii) the (mis-)match of
organizational planning horizons and perceived climate challenges. The third
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subcategory that emanated from the case studies, the responsibility to take measures
to respond to climate impacts, so far has not been addressed by the analyzed studies.
How is the priority of climate responses in relation to other
investment decisions determined?
Despite of the scientific perspective on urgency and novelty of the impacts of climate
change that have been outlined in section 3.2.2 (page 71ff.), the case studies disclosed
that climate change, if at all, is just one among other motivators for business
planning. Other studies on business planning with climate change confirm that
planning with climate change appears in simultaneous consideration of other threats
and opportunities (Bürki 2000, Arnell & Delaney 2006, Berkhout et al. 2006).
Likewise responses to climate change, both in the Alpine tourism industry and other
industries, are rarely triggered by the impacts of climate change alone, but involve
other motivators for action (Berkhout et al. 2006, Mayer et al. 2007). These findings
that are shared by prior empirical studies reveal the relevance to look into the subject
how the priority of climate responses in relation to other investment decisions is
determined. In this respect particularly the factors of organizational risk culture and
manager’s risk propensity have been highlighted.
In the case studies the manager’s risk propensity that means the willingness to invest a
certain amount of resources under a level of perceived certainty that the investment
will pay off, have been found to impact the scope of responses to climate change. In
addition to the financial scope of response measures, the study of Arnell & Delaney
adds a further aspect with respect to organization’s handling of risks coming along
with the uncertainties of climate change: Uncertainties are not only attached to the
impacts of climate change (timing, severity), but also to the benefit of response
measures (Arnell & Delaney 2006). This aspect did not prominently emerge in the
case studies – particularly those managers that invested in substantial response
strategies felt very confident about the success of their investment. However, it has
shown through that other local businesses did not consistently shared the appraisals
of the investors. Inconsistent risk appraisals could reduce the community support for
response strategies, a phenomenon that could particularly impede local response
cooperations. The same would hold true for external capital lenders such as banks.
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Hoffmann et al. (2009) in their study on organizational climate responses in the
Alpine tourism sector found no significant relation between perceived uncertainty on
climate impacts and implemented response measures. These insights contradicted
their initial assumptions, a finding that they were not able to explain. Their insights
are also opposed to the case study results that consider the perceived uncertainty of
climate impacts an obstacle of organizational response. The case study findings on
the managers’ risk propensity that are supported by the studies of Berkhout et al. and
Arnell & Delaney yield a plausible solution both to these empirical contradictions:
Even though the perceived uncertainty – probably both on climate impacts and
feasibility of responses – is an important determinant of the response motivation, the
essential factor is eventually the attitude of managers how to deal with the existing
uncertainties. In this respect both the case studies and the studies of both Berkhout et
al. and Arnell & Delaney found substantial differences among organizations and their
managers.
H o w a r e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n s’ p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n s b e i n g c o n s t i t u t e d ?
The time horizon that are considered within business planning have been found to
determine the commitment to implement climate responses in the caseorganizations, not least due to the fact that priority is given to shorter-term
challenges. Prior studies on Alpine winter tourism (Bürki 2000, Mayer et al. 2007)
have already addressed the temporal mismatch between shorter-term investment
cycles and longer-term climate trends. Alpine tourism businesses need to cope with
competing challenges induced by dynamics in their organizational environments that
take place on different time scales. Bürki (2000) found that the issue of climate
change receives less priority among managers in the Austrian winter tourism sector in
comparison to quickly shifting tourism trends. Equal observations have been made
for the water supply industry (Arnell & Delaney 2006). In this business field
demographic change and migration belong to the environmental challenges that on
the short-term are considered more relevant than climate change (ibid.).
Existing studies remain largely descriptive with respect to the issue of planning
horizons and do not offer much insight in the conditions of their formation. Arnell
& Delaney (2006) and Berkhout et al. (2006), however, identified the potential of
administrative regulations both for limiting as well as amplifying investment periods
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of businesses (e.g. by administrative assessment of performance targets and
investment plans). It has been argued earlier that to date such administrative
interventions into Alpine tourism businesses to date are barely conceivable and it has
not been observed in the case studies. However it has been found in the case study
that such interventions already exist in the context of approving loan capital by
banks. In case the Alpine tourism business would rely stronger on public subsidies
such administrative interventions could also influence the planning horizons of
Alpine tourism businesses – in both directions.
Resources to respond to climate change
In contrast to the case studies, the majority of past empirical studies on business
responses to climate change did not take in an explicit organizational resource
perspective in their inquiries and analyses. Hoffmann et al.’s study on the Swiss cable
car operators focused on the accessible financial resources as a hypothesized proxy of
organizations’ ability to respond to climate change. However the findings of past
studies that have been considered to compare and contrast with the case study
findings frequently address the role of different organizational resource types in an
implicit manner. In that way the different resource categories that have been found
important to understand the business planning of the case-organizations have
appeared in earlier studies. In the following sections the case study findings on
organizational resources are integrated with earlier empirical findings with respect to
(i) their influence on triggering awareness about climate impacts and (ii) their role in
identifying and implementing responses to these impacts. It was found that the
impact of organizational resources previously have been related less to the former that
to the latter aspect.
How are resources developed and applied to trigger awareness
about climate impacts?
Information about the physical and economic impacts of climate change has been
found an essential resource to trigger managers’ awareness about the involved risks
and opportunities for their organizations (cf. pages 203ff. of the discussion section).
The case study findings suggest that the quality of the case-organizations’
information management (continuity, formalization, intensity and proactivity)
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besides the perceived responsibility for performing this task not least depends on
organizations’ access to other resources, such as financial, human and social capital.
The access to and use of these organizational resources particularly facilitate
organizations to collect and process scientific based evidences on longer-term shifts of
climate means.
In a number of prior studies, the development of organizational information capital
on climate risks likewise has been a decisive aspect in the analysis of organizational
awareness to climate change (Berkhout et al. 2006, Arnell & Delaney 2006, to some
extent: Bürki 2000). In these studies the organizational processes to build up
information capital has been related to the access and use of other organizational
resources as well as to environmental factors.
Berkhout et al. (2006) and Arnell & Delaney (2006) have studied the conditions of
organizational learning and managing information capital in water supply companies.
They observed that the organizations’ motivation to run continuous monitoring and
risk assessment routines with regard to climate challenges resulted both from learning
from experiencing detrimental climate impacts in the past and administrative
regulations that demanded these routines. Given the societal need for an effective
water supply, these regulations can be considered as formalized societal responsibility
that had been attributed to the water supply businesses. Similar observations have
been made in the case studies where dominant organizations of the local tourism
business like the cable car operators and tourism associations considered themselves
responsible to collect and disseminate information about environmental challenges to
associated organizations. All in all these observations support the conclusions that
efforts of business organizations to build up information capital on climate change
are not triggered by internal objectives alone, but also depend on external, societal
motivators.
Comparing the sizes of the analyzed organizations and the extent of their information
management between the case studies and the studies on the water supply business, it
is evident that the quality of the information management and eventually the quality
of the accessible information capital also depends on the organizations financial
capacities and accessible human capital. The role of organizations’ human capital and
the importance of the conceptual understanding of climate change to build up
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organizational information capital on climatic phenomena has already been addressed
in earlier in the discussion section (page 206f., cf. Bürki 2000, Berkhout et al. 2006).
Given the very limited human resources of most of the case-organizations in the
Alpine tourism business as well as very limited financial resources to draw on external
expertise, as the organizations studied by Berkhout et al. and Arnell & Delaney did,
the importance of organization’s social capital for collecting and processing climate
information is evident. Sharing of knowledge and individual competencies and joint
financial investments into external expertise (e.g., mediated by local tourism
associations) hold the possibilities to compensate lacks of individual resources. In line
with the case studies, Berkhout et al. emphasize the potential of interactive
deliberation on the consequences of climate change for business planning.
How are resources developed and applied to identify and
implement climate responses?
The case study results address the question how different organizational resources
affect the ability of the studied businesses to identify and implement climate
responses. The majority of prior empirical studies that have been analyzed (five of six)
address the relationship between organizational responses to climate change and
organizations’ access to different types of resources:
In line with the case studies, the accessible knowledge about feasible response options
(information capital) has been found a precondition for identifying and
implementing climate responses and is closely linked to the competencies and
experiences of organizations’ managers and staff (human capital) to manage crisis
situations (Arnell & Delaney 2006, Berkhout et al. 2006, Blennow & Person 2009).
Berkhout et al. (2006) observed how the identification of response options beyond
the mainstream opened up new business opportunities and increased the competitive
advantage of the respective businesses. Similar observations have been made in the
case studies where a group of innovating businesses in destination B implemented
novel, snow-independent tourism products (trails and cable car service for mountain
bikers). This investment decision not only decreased their dependency from the
winter business, but in fact resulted in a nationwide recognized tourist attraction.
A number of studies on business organizations in and outside the Alpine tourism
business raise the financial aspects of climate responses that have been addressed by
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the case studies. In their study on Swiss cable car operators Hoffmann et al. (2009)
found that the higher a firm’s financial capital, the more measures to protect and to
expand beyond the affected business it will pursue. In Hoffmann et al’s and other
studies the organizations’ access to financial capital is mostly considered in terms of
making investments into climate responses (Bürki 2000, Arnell & Delaney 2006,
Hoffmann et al. 2009). The case study results, in addition, indicate the importance
of financial capital first of all for building up the human and information capital to
identify and develop feasible response options. The three above quoted studies
address the accessibility of external capital as an enabler of climate responses.
Bürki (2000) suggests an economic downward spiral of reduced confidence of banks
into firms’ creditworthiness due to climate prospects that decreased the firms ability
to take responsive actions which in turn negatively feeds back to the firms’
creditworthiness. Bürki’s aspect of firms’ dependency on external organizations’
assessments that is directly linked to the climate vulnerability of firms complements
the economic feedback loops that have been observed in the case studies with respect
to accessible finances and quality of the tourism businesses (cf. section 6.3.3: 175).
In line with the case study results, Arnell & Delaney (2006) found that the access to
external resources is facilitated by an organization’s social capital. They observed how
social capital, which emanated from the relationships among organizations,
influenced the organizations’ scope of feasible response options by the potential of
sharing resources. With respect to external financial capital Bürki (2000) and
Hoffmann et al. (2009) discuss the necessity of public subsidies to allow businesses in
the Alpine tourism sector to implement responses to climate change. Hoffmann et al.
recommend public financial support for climate responses in order to compensate
long investment periods that are required for a proactive and substantial adaptation
of the Alpine tourism business. In the case studies is was found that the access to
public subsidies not least depends on the manager’s competence to pass through the
application process. As a consequence it can be expected that the accessibility of
public subsidies to facilitate climate responses depends on both the availability of
funds and organizations’ human capital to access them.
The ‘decision autonomy’ arose from the case studies as a category to describe the
degree of control that the case-organizations and their managers have over the
utilization of the resources they have access to. The category has not been explicitly
216
conceptualized by the previous studies, albeit the dependency of business planning
on the agendas of other agents, reducing the organizations’ decision autonomy has
been noticed. As it has been stated previously in the discussion section, the studies of
Arnell & Delaney (2006) and Berkhout et al. (2006) observed the influence of
administrative regulations on organizations information management (e.g.
requirements for monitoring climate parameters) planning horizons (e.g., investment
periods and reporting schemes). From and ‘decision autonomy’ perspective it can be
learned how an institutional intervention into an organization’s business planning can
both facilitate and impede responses to climate change. In case an organization is
aware of the challenges of climate change and committed to respond to it, a high
degree of decision autonomy, as well as sufficient resources, will facilitate the
planning and implementation of the response. In turn, a sufficient stock of accessible
resources would not enable organizational responses to climate change if no
awareness and commitment exists to utilize the resources in the respective way. In this
case external interventions, implying a loss of an organization’s decision autonomy,
would push the utilization of organizational resources for the implementation of
climate response strategies. It has been stated earlier in this section that to date hard
regulatory intervention – as it is the case in the water supply sector – are not
conceivable for the Alpine tourism sector. An increased demand and call for public
subsidies to support the business, as it has been discussed by Bürki (2000) and
Hoffmann et al. (2009) however might increase the pressure on firms to comply with
regulations that have been set up by external institutions or organizations.
7.2.2
Transferring the empirical findings to the Alpine winter
tourism industry
The case studies that have been conducted in order to understand the conditions
under which business responses to climate impacts do or do not occur from an
insight perspective of business organizations, considering their specific characteristics
and contexts (cf. chapter 5.1). As a consequence of the qualitative research approach
the case study findings in the first place refer to the context of the embedded case
studies (cf. Flick 2009). Based on the chosen case sampling process that allowed to
include the prominent types and sizes of business organizations in the case-
217
destinations (cf. chapter 5.2), the representativeness of the findings for the two casedestinations is assumed. In this section the question of further transferability of the
findings is discussed:
To w h a t e x t e n t c a n t h e f i n d i n g s b e t r a n s f e r r e d t o o t h e r A l p i n e
tourism destinations?
The discussion is led along two aspects that are decisive for an assessment of the
transferability of the case study findings (Eisenhardt 1989, Flick 2009): (i) the
examination of the case selection process that builds on the methodological
discussion (cf. chapter 7.1) and (ii) the comparison of the findings with insights from
prior research efforts in this field that builds on the integration of the empirical
findings with the state of research (cf. section 7.2.1). The key outcomes of the
discussion finally are synthesized in a list of directions for transferring the empirical
results of the thesis.
Case selection process
The selection of cases is a decisive methodological aspect for transferring empirical
findings from the case studies to a broader population – in this case to local business
organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry (Eisenhardt 1989, Flick 2009).
The strategy of purposive sampling has been targeted to depict a bandwidth of
different contexts of business planning in Alpine tourism both with respect to
different types and sizes of business organizations and to different climatological
environments (cf. tables 5.1:124 and 6.1:138, chapter A.1.1:260ff.) .
With respect to the former, the prevalent organizational types and sizes are
represented in the case sample – existing trade-offs between diversity and stability in
the observed patterns have already been discussed earlier (cf. section 7.1.1). In
consideration of these limitations, it seems appropriate to propose the case study
findings as hypotheses for business planning in a broader population.
Regarding different climatological environments, the selected case-destinations
represent two main climatic regions of the Austrian Alps – those with Atlantic and
Continental influence (cf. figure 2.10, chapter A.1.1:260ff ). In each climatic regions
one case-destination has been selected that, due to the altitudinal range of its ski
resort, can be expected to be particularly exposed to climate change (cf. ibid.). As a
218
consequence both destinations do not feature glacial or permafrost zones that allow
local business managers to detect long-term warming trends in their local climate –
in contrast to other locations in which the long-term impacts of climate change
remain a rather abstract, scientific concept. However, the understanding of this
abstract concept and the challenges to reconcile this notion with the experienced
ambiguity of inter-annual climate variations have been identified important as
processes of raising awareness on climate challenges. The availability of directly
perceivable indicators of longer-term warming trends, such as glacier retreat and the
consequences of melting permafrost, could introduce additional impact factors to
business planning and shift the weights among the ones that have been described in
the case studies results. Given the consistence in major conditions, the transfer of
these results beyond the climatic environments of the case studies, however, seems
adequate, but demands openness towards required adjustments.
The structural characteristics of the Alpine winter tourism industry, such as prevalent
firm sizes and management approaches, are not homogeneous, but vary among
different regions in the European Alps. In this respect expert talks 18 identified a
gradient between eastern and western Alpine regions in that small, family managed
firms are prevalent in the East (particularly Austria, cf. section 3.5.4: 100) whereas
western tourism destinations (particularly Switzerland and France) are stronger
characterized by larger, non-family managed firms. The latter feature more
substantial organizational resource stocks and can be expected to have a stronger
orientation on strategic management and environmental dynamics (cf. section 3.5.4).
These characteristics are likely to shift the weights among the identified impact
factors to business planning in the context of climate change, such as the importance
of social capital and local networks as well as the basical reduction of the
organization’s human capital on the capabilities of an one- or two-person
management team. As the case sample in fact comprised large business firms, the
principle characteristics of business planning in these firms in the context of business
planning have been included in the analyses. Therefore, the transfer of the case study
results beyond the Austria-specific industry characteristics of Alpine tourism seems
possible, albeit again demands openness towards required adjustments.
18 Personal communications with Nadja Vetters, Joanneum Research, Graz (2008), Ruggero
Schleicher-Tappeser, Permanent Secretariat of the Alpine Convention, Innsbruck (2007)
219
Comparison with prior studies
The integration of the case study findings with the results of prior empirical studies
on business planning in the context of climate change revealed a consistency in large
parts – either in terms of substantiating prior findings or extending them. This
particularly holds true for studies on Alpine tourism businesses both in Austrian and
Swiss destinations (cf. section 7.2.1). With respect to another industry, the water
supply sector, the integration revealed opposing views on two aspects: the role of the
media and the role of administrative regulations.
In contrast to the case-studies, media coverage on climate change issues facilitated
homogeneous awareness on these issues among managers in the studied water supply
organizations, whereas the influence of media coverage on the managers of the caseorganizations largely varied due to different degrees of media skepticism. It has been
argued earlier that this discrepancy across the study findings could be explained
through a differing relation between the public media and the respective industries
due to the strong economic impact of potentially inaccurate media reports on
business performance in the Alpine tourism industry (cf. section 7.2.1). However, the
contrasting view indicates that the role of the pubic media for business planning with
climate change needs to be critically reflected when transferring the respective case
study findings to a broader population.
Administrative regulations of public authorities have been found in prior studies to
support the consideration of climate change in business planning and the motivation
of managers to actively access relevant climate information. Furthermore impacts of
administrative regulations on organizational planing horizons have been identified
(cf. section 7.2.1). It has been argued earlier that, except from obligations linked to
the allocation of pubic or private funds, to date comparable interventions into
organizational planning are not common in the Austrian jurisdiction. However,
regulations in other countries could have different implications. Given the local and
national economic importance of many Alpine tourism destinations and a growing
risk of detrimental climate impacts it is, furthermore, conceivable that public bodies
gain interest in stronger interventions into business planning in order to facilitate
longer-term climate response strategies. Therefore, divergent conditions and trends in
the institutional environment of business planning need to be taken into account
220
when transferring the case study findings to other Alpine countries or business
planning in the future.
Synthesis
As a consequence of the qualitative research approach that has been targeted to gain
insights on the inside-perspectives of business planning in Alpine winter tourism
destinations in the context of climate change, the transfer of the findings beyond the
case-destinations in general requires a thorough reflection on possible additional
impact factors on business planning with climate change in the focal context. Based
on the discussions on the case selection as well as the comparison with prior studies,
the following aspects are advised to take into consideration in the transfer of the case
study findings:
•
the t r a n s f e r b e y o n d t h e c a s e - d e s t i n a t i o n s requires a critical reflection
of the role of the pubic media for business planning with climate change;
•
the t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r c l i m a t i c r e g i o n s with glacial and permafrost zones
requires consideration of additional and differently weighted impact factors of
awareness raising on longer-term climate trends;
•
the t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r A l p i n e c o u n t r i e s requires consideration of
differently weighted influences of strategic planning approaches, on organizational
access and inter-organizational sharing of resources;
•
the t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r A l p i n e c o u n t r i e s a n d f u t u r e b u s i n e s s
p l a n n i n g requires to consider deviating conditions and trends in the
institutional environment of business planning.
Taking into account the stated aspects, the case study findings are proposed as
hypotheses for business planning in the context of climate change in the Alpine
tourism destinations. The transfer of the case study findings to this broader
population is underpinned by the consistency of these results with the results of prior
studies on the Alpine tourism sector.
8. Conclusions
Chapter Contents
8.1 Business responses to the impacts of climate change in the Alpine
winter tourism industry...............................................................226
8.1.1 Proposing a bi-functional climate response model..............................................226
8.1.2 Implications for further research........................................................................229
8.1.3 Practical implications.........................................................................................230
8.2 The capacity of business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism
industry to respond to climate change..........................................232
8.2.1 Re-conceptualizing capacity of response.............................................................233
8.2.2 Building organizational capacity of response......................................................235
Guiding processes for building organizational capacity of response.....................................235
Proposing integrated approaches......................................................................................236
8.2.3 Implications for further research........................................................................240
8.2.4 Practical implications.........................................................................................241
CONCLUSIONS
223
T
he thesis has been motivated by the serious challenges of the human
societies that are induced by their vulnerabilities to climate change and
that are contrasted by substantial existing knowledge gaps with respect to
strategies and capacities to cope with current and future impacts of climate change.
In the current state of research considerable consensus exists that the Alpine winter
tourism industry is among the sectors being particularly vulnerable to climate
change: Due to its strong economic dependency on snow-based winter sport
activities, it is very sensitive to changes in the local climatic conditions that constitute
the basis for these activities. Observations of past dynamics and prospects of future
trends in these conditions suggest that Alpine tourism destinations are exposed to
climatic changes above the global average. In contrast to the extensive knowledge
base and the scientific consensus on the industry’s sensitivity and exposure to climate
change, existing findings on the industry’s capacity to respond to the resulting
impacts – the third vulnerability dimension – remain rather poor and ambiguous.
The thesis has been conceptualized to contribute to an understanding of the societal
perspectives on climate change that are addressed by the ‘capacity of response’
dimension. For this purpose organizational business planning in the Alpine winter
tourism industry in the context of climate change has been explored from a
theoretical- conceptual perspective (chapters 2 and 3) and from an empirical
perspective (chapters 4 to 7), guided by the general leading question Q1
(box 8.1: 224).
The leading question of this thesis (Q1) indicated two complementary research fields
that have been reviewed for contributions for studying organizational responses to
climate change: (i) knowledge and concepts on the phenomenon of climate change,
including its impacts on the Alpine winter tourism industry providing an outside
view on the general conditions of business planning in this industry. The literature
review of this field included climatological concepts and data as well as interrelations
of specific industry characteristics and economical impacts of climate change; (ii)
knowledge and concepts to understand the organizational perspective of business
planning in this industry in the context of climate change. The literature review of
this field included theoretical and conceptual contributions on environmental change
from an organization and management theory perspective and studies on business
planning in the context of climate change. The integration of existing theoretical
224
CHAPTER 8. CONCLUSIONS
concepts with respect to business planning in the context of climate change
represents a conceptual contribution of this thesis with respect to the above
formulated research motivation.
On the basis of the integration of existing theoretical-conceptual perspectives in the
two research fields particular research gaps have been identified that served as starting
points for the formulation of empirical research questions (cf. chapter 4). In addition
to the leading question two main research questions have been formulated with a
focus on the exploration and re-conceptualization of the ‘capacity of response’
concept (Q 2 and 3, box 8.1). The empirical findings with respect to enablers and
inhibitors of organizational responses to climate change (research question Q 2) that
are documented in chapter 6 provide the basis for drawing conclusions on the
organizational capacity of response (research question Q 3) in section 8.2 of this
chapter. The theoretical-conceptual research section of the thesis has been linked to
the empirical research section by providing sensitizing concepts and analytical
frameworks to guide the empirical inquiry and grounded theory development
(cf. chapter 4.4).
Q1
Through which ways can the phenomenon of climate change be
understood from the real-world perspectives of business planning in
the Alpine winter tourism industry?
Q2
What factors and processes enable or inhibit local business
organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry to integrate
current and future impacts of temporary climate crises and longterm shifts of mean conditions of their local climate into their
business planning?
Q3
How do the response-factors and categories relate to the capacity of
business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry to
respond to current and future impacts of local climate change?
Box 8.1: Main research questions of the thesis
For the detailed sub-research questions, please refer to chapter 4.3 on page 111.
CONCLUSIONS
225
In the remainder of this concluding chapter important conceptual and empirical
findings are summed up. On this basis final conclusions are drawn with respect to the
research questions of the thesis. Following the qualitative research logic, the presented
contributions are considered as hypotheses. In chapter 8.1 the developed model of
business responses to climate change in the Alpine winter tourism sector that
integrates the perspective of business planning with basic shorter-term and longerterm organizational consequences of climate change is proposed as strategic
framework for business planning with climate change. In chapter 8.2 an elaborated
conceptualization of the organizational capacity of response is proposed, based on the
empirical findings. It allows outlining a framework for organizational capacity
building that is presented subsequently. In both chapters concluding
recommendations are provided with respect to a further scientific elaboration of these
contributions as well as their practical application.
226
8.1 Business responses to the impacts of climate change in
the Alpine winter tourism industry
In the research on the impacts of climate change in general and on the Alpine winter
tourism industry in particular, two physical impact types are being distinguished with
respect to the timing of their appearance: (i) a shift in the long-term means of climate
parameters, e.g. surface temperatures (‘climate trends’); (ii) an increase in the
frequency and magnitude of climate and weather extreme events (e.g. warm spells in
winter season) resulting from the interplay of an inherent climate variability with a
shift of long-term means of climate parameters (‘climate crises’, cf. chapter 2.1).
In the literature on business strategies and measures in Alpine tourism to respond to
the impact of climate change this distinction is only reflected to a minor degree
(cf. chapter 3.3). In particular the management of temporary climate crises has not
received much attention so far as current discussions are mostly concerned with
‘protect and expand’ strategies in order to manage the business adaptation to longterm climate trends (cf. section 3.3.2). Interestingly, the same holds true to real-world
business planning in the studied case-organizations (cf. tables 35 to 37: 320ff.). Both
observations can be interpreted as indications for a general underestimation of the
challenges imposed by climate crises. Given that the actual – mostly detrimental –
economic climate impacts on business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism
sector emanate from temporary climate and weather extremes (cf. chapter 2.1,
section 2.4.2) this thesis has identified the need for developing a systematic model of
business responses to both shorter-term and longer-term impacts of climate change.
8.1.1
Proposing a bi-functional climate response model
Against the background of differing economic consequences of shorter-term climate
crises and shifts of longer-term climate means, a bi-functional climate response model
is proposed that takes these differences into account (figure 8.1). The business
organization focused model builds on an interdisciplinary synthesis of existing
concepts in the literature on
BUSINESS RESPONSES TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE
227
•
o r g a n i z a t i o n t h e o r y that provides the conceptual framework for managing
businesses in the context of dynamic organizational environments,
•
g l o b a l c h a n g e s t u d i e s that discusses societal strategies to respond to impacts
of climate change on different time scales and offer case studies across different
industries and
•
t o u r i s m m a n a g e m e n t in the context of climate change that compiles
different existing response strategies and measures for business organizations in the
Alpine winter tourism industry (cf. chapter 3.3, section 3.1.3).
Figure 8.1: Bi-functional model of organizational responses to
climate change, exemplified along the Alpine cable car
business
The response model is founded on a basic scheme of organizational resource flows
(cf. figure 3.3: 76). It is built around an organization’s resource stock that requires a
certain inflow of revenues in order to allow for the development and maintenance of
business operations. Dependent on the business motivation, outflows of expected
profit need to be additionally taken into account – in family managed firms this is
not necessarily the case (cf. section 3.5.4). The s t a n d a r d r e s o u r c e c y c l e
represents the resource flows based on the core business products that in the case of
Alpine tourism are closely linked to the local climatic conditions, e.g., availability of
natural snow, temperatures that allow for the production of artificial snow
228
(cf. section 3.2.1). The e m e r g e n c y r e s o u r c e c y c l e kicks in, in case the revenues
from the core products temporarily are not sufficient to sustain the operation of the
business and alternative resource inflows are required. In line with the model logic
climate responses in the Alpine winter tourism industry therefore aim at adapting the
tourism products in a way that revenues are maintained over time and open access to
alternative resources in case of temporary, climate and weather induced revenue
losses.
The c r i s i s m a n a g e m e n t function represents an organizational resilience strategy
that aims at enabling an organization to absorb climate induced stresses, preserve
functioning and recover from the crises in a timely manner (cf. section 3.3.2,
table 3.6). Three principle strategies to increase the organizational resilience to
climate stresses can be distinguished: (i) Establishing access to slack resources, than
allows to buffer temporary economic losses (e.g. shared financial reserve funds); (ii)
sharing the burdens and containing the risk of economic losses, induced by climate
crises (e.g. snow insurance); (iii) establishing emergency tourism products as a
temporary, alternative income sources (e.g. cultural events).
The a d a p t a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t function aims at adapting the core tourism
products to shifts of longer-term climate means in order to reduce the likelihood of
detrimental climate crises and to secure a reliable revenue from these products
(cf. section 3.3.1, tables 3.4 and 3.5). Two principle adaptation strategies can be
distinguished: (i) protecting the affected winter sport products by reducing the
sensitivity to climate impacts (e.g. snowmaking) or the exposure to these impacts
(e.g. moving ski runs to higher altitudes); (ii) expanding the tourism products beyond
the affected ski business by establishing alternative, climate robust core products as
business innovations (e.g. all-season wellness and sport offers).
The model suggests that both functions are interdependent: An organization’s crisis
management facilitates the maintenance of the core business across temporary
adversity. The adaptation management on the other hand reconciles the core business
with the general local climatic conditions, facilitating sufficient revenue to develop
and maintain crisis management measures.
A classification of proposed and applied business responses in the Alpine winter
tourism industry that have been so far discussed in the literature into the suggested
229
two strategic orientations – responding to short-term climate crises and to shifts in
long-term climate means – can be found in tables 3.4 to 3.6 (pages 78 to 81).
8.1.2
Implications for further research
The proposed climate response model for the Alpine winter tourism industry is a first
attempt to illustrate the important distinction between business responses to shortterm climate crises and business responses to shifts in long-term climate means as
well as to illustrate the interdependencies of both strategies. Synthesizing concepts
and insights from different research streams and disciplines appears to be an adequate
proceeding against the background of climate change as a multi-disciplinary
challenge.
The model is proposed both as analytic tool as well as strategic framework for
business planning with climate change. The following directions for further research
in this field are suggested in order to enhance the model with respect to these fields of
application:
•
D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i n g t h e o r y f i e l d s . To date, for
instance, only few efforts exist to link the concepts to organization theory with
climate change induced phenomena (e.g., Berkhout et al. 2006, Linnenluecke
2009).
•
Integration
of
additional
theoretical
and
conceptual
b a c k g r o u n d s . The necessary selection of contributing research fields has been
oriented at the specific research focus of this thesis. Further linkages, for instance
to the risk management literature, could contribute to a refinement of the
proposed organizational functions.
•
Tr a n s f e r o f r e s p o n s e s t r a t e g i e s a n d m e a s u r e s f r o m o t h e r
t o u r i s m s e c t o r s a n d i n d u s t r i e s . Given the limited suggested response
measures, particularly in the crisis management of Alpine winter tourism
businesses, the analysis of other business fields, similarly affected by climate
change could yield ideas for additional response options. Further research in this
230
direction could strengthen the links between the model’s conceptual and strategic
considerations and its applicability in real-world planning contexts.
8.1.3
Practical implications
The bi-functional climate response model is proposed as a strategic framework to
support business planning with climate change in the Alpine tourism industry (cf.
previous section). The following recommendations are given in order to apply the
model in real-world business planning:
•
Concerted consideration of both crisis and adaptation
m a n a g e m e n t . Due to the interdependencies in facilitating both response
functions they need to be planned and implemented in terms of a concerted
business strategy in order to contribute to the organizational performance over the
short and the long run.
•
R e v i e w i n g t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f e x i s t i n g r e s p o n s e m e a s u r e s . Existing
crisis management measures to cope with the traditional variability of the local
climate might not prove feasible against the background of an increasing
frequency and magnitude of extreme events. Existing adaptation measures, such as
snowmaking might not assure stable business conditions under changing climate
conditions (cf. section 3.4.2)
•
Complementing the lists of response options by active
e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n . The synthesized list of proposed and applied measures to
contribute to different response functions remains unbalanced and fragmentary in
some parts. This particularly holds true for crisis management options. Active
experimentation with new response options on the part of Alpine winter tourism
businesses would not only contribute to the practicability of the model – it might,
as the case studies have revealed – also result in competitive advantages through
business innovations.
•
Building the organizational capacity to facilitate crisis and
a d a p t a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t . Even though the model is proposed as a starting
point for business organizations to actively cope with the local consequences of
231
climate change, it cannot be effective unless organizations have the capacity to
apply its strategic considerations.
232
8.2 The capacity of business organizations in the Alpine
winter tourism industry to respond to climate change
Notwithstanding its considerable significance for research on the societal
vulnerability to climate change, existing conceptualizations of the capacity to respond
to climate change are rather vague. Frequently definitions are not clearly
distinguished from conceptualizations of response strategies and measures
(cf. chapter 3.5: 90). This thesis has been motivated by contributing to the
clarification and distinction of these concepts. In demarcation of the
conceptualization of business responses to the impacts of climate change that has
been proposed in the prior chapter 8.1, a revised conceptualization of the capacity of
response is proposed here that draws on the contributions of the empirical findings
and the precedent literature synthesis.
Despite of frequent references to the capacity of response in the existing literature, a
fundamental question to use the concept effectively has only been addressed
marginally so far: “What factors constitute or determine the capacity of response?” –
or reformulated into an analytic question: “Under which conditions responses to
climate change take place?”. In this thesis these questions have been approached by an
extensive compilation of existing literature that contributes insights on these
questions (cf. chapter 3.5). The literature synthesis served as a basis to develop and
conduct an empirical analysis of the conditions under which climate change is
integrated into business planning and responses are considered in the specific context
of the Alpine winter tourism industry. The empirical findings allowed to adjust
existing concepts that proved to be useful to guide the analysis to the specific context
of the case studies (cf. chapter 4.4).
The redefinition of the capacity of response concept on the basis of the empirical
findings on real-world business planning in the context of climate change provides
starting points for organizational capacity building in the Alpine winter tourism
business.
THE CAPACITY OF BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS IN THE ALPINE WINTER
TOURISM INDUSTRY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
8.2.1
233
Re-conceptualizing capacity of response
Based on the resulting category system of enablers and inhibitors of responses to
climate change in the case-organizations (cf. chapter 6.4), the conceptualization of
the capacity of response has been further elaborated. Simpson et al.’s definition on
the meaning of ‘capacity’ that has been developed for the context of the tourism
industry’s vulnerability to climate change provides an appropriate hook for redefining
the capacity of response concept:
‘Capacity’ is the ability of individuals, institutions and organisations to perform functions
effectively and sustainably; it is not a passive state but part of a continuing process.
Simpson et al. 2008: 3, cited earlier in chapter 3.5
In section 7.2.2 the transferability of the case study findings to the context of the
Alpine winter tourism industry has been suggested. In this respect the reconceptualization of the capacity of response is proposed for this context, as well. It
addresses the triggers of organizational responses to climate change, the objective of
response and the principle characteristics, determining organizational responses (box
8.2). These determinants further represent potential starting points for building
capacity of response in business organizations of the Alpine winter tourism industry
that are discussed in the subsequent section.
234
For business organizations in the Alpine winter tourism industry in the
context of climate change, the c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e is defined as
their motivation and ability to integrate short-term and long-term impacts
of climate change into their business planning in an active, effective and
continuous manner in order to manage resulting temporary crises and to
manage the adaptation to shifting long-term climate means. More
specifically the capacity of response consists of three interdependent
dimensions:
•
the a w a r e n e s s of the economic sensitivity towards the direct and
indirect impacts of climate change, as well as the awareness of the
effective exposure to these impacts and feasible business options to
respond to these impacts;
•
the c o m m i t m e n t to plan and implement responses in that the
responsibilities to implement responses are arranged and stipulated
clearly, priority is given to climate responses among other existing
investment incentives, the time horizon of investments are reconciled
with the required investment volume of response measures;
•
the r e s o u r c e s to plan and implement responses, namely information
capital about climate challenges and possible responses, human capital
to gather and develop this information, financial capital to drive the
management of information and responses, social capital to compensate
resource gaps and the autonomy to control the use of these resources in
agreement with one’s commitment.
Box 8.2: Redefinition of the ‘capacity of response’ for business organizations in the
Alpine winter tourism industry
8.2.2
235
Building organizational capacity of response
The proposed capacity of response concept (box 8.2) fans out the three dimensions
towards which organizational capacity building needs to be oriented in the context of
climate change. In addition to the enabling and inhibiting factors and their impacts
on organizational responses to climate change that served as the basis to redefine the
capacity of response concept the empirical findings also comprise prominent intraand extra-organizational processes through which the responses are realized. These
processes link to theoretical perspectives such as organizational learning and dynamic
capabilities that are being discussed in the literature on organizational responses to
environmental dynamics. The identified processes contribute to a framework for
building organizational capacity of response – capacity building requires to develop
strategies and measures through which these processes are enforced. Based on this
framework two practical approaches are proposed for building capacity of response in
the specific conditions of the Alpine winter tourism business.
Guiding processes for building organizational capacity of response
Building capacity of response in the Alpine winter tourism business relies on intraand extra-organizational development processes in the three dimensions of the
capacity of response: raising awareness, building commitment and developing
resources. The processes emanate from a synthesis of the empirical findings on the
case-organizations’ business planning in the context of climate change. They are
necessarily interrelated, as a consequence of the strong interdependencies among the
three dimensions of the capacity of response concept.
236
Table 8.1: Intra- and inter-organizational processes contributing to the capacity of Alpine winter tourism
businesses to plan and implement business responses to climate change
Awareness raising
Commitment building
• Conceptual understanding of
•
•
•
•
• Learning about the business
the differences and interconopportunities of climate
nections between the local
responses, synergies of climate
consequence of climate variresponses with other investment incentives and about
ability and climate change
no-regret-response-strategies
Understanding and differenti• Coordinating responsibilities
ating the novel and the
conventional phenomena in
and temporal commitments
the local climate
for taking climate response
measures within the local
Learning about local climatic
tourism community
phenomena by integrating
personal local experiences
• Building cooperative spirit
with external expertise
among organizations in the
local tourism business
Active and deliberative
learning about the organiza- • Strengthening strategic and
tional sensitivity and adaptproactive approaches to business to local climate
ness planning in the context
phenomena, based on experiof ambiguity and uncertainty
enced economic impacts of
such phenomena and relating
these events to climate change
Experimental and deliberative
learning about feasible business options to respond to the
Resource development
• Strengthening the capacities
•
•
•
•
for accessing and processing of
information on climate
change from different sources
of evidence, particularly
scientific expertise on longer-term climate trends and their
local impacts
Exchanging and sharing
resources among local and
trans-local business networks
(financial capital, human and
information capital on climate
change and business
responses)
Increasing organizational
reputation and trust among
local businesses and external
business partners
Venturing on investments
intro product quality in order
to increase demand and in
turn capacity for further
investments
Building managerial experiences beyond the core tourism
business and managerial
training on phenomena and
business impacts of climate
change
Proposing integrated approaches
Based on the suggested framework of guiding processes (table 8.1), two approaches
are proposed to facilitate the capacity of business organizations in the Alpine winter
tourism industry to respond to climate change. The approaches integrate the three
dimensions of the concept (cf. box 8.2) under consideration of the specific challenges
and opportunities of the Alpine tourism sector (cf. section 3.5.4). They base on
activities that have been observed in the case-destinations, albeit less pronounced (cf.
boxes 6.2 to 6.5).
237
Alpine tourism communities, like the two case study communities, operate as a
mutual dependent network of tourism product providers (e.g., gastronomy,
accommodation, skiing infrastructure). These local business networks are dominated
by small, often family managed firms that operate with a very limited stock of
organizational resources – this particularly holds true for many Austrian destinations
(cf. section 3.5.4). As a consequence of the local economic interdependencies shortterm climate crises and long-term climate trends not only result in individual impacts
on firms, but also imply collective impacts on the whole community. Given the
mutual dependency on the quality and performance of the local business
organizations as well as the limited individual organizational resource stocks,
cooperative planning settings are proposed as one reasonable strategy for building
local organizational capacity of response.
Two complementary approaches that refer to the cooperative strategy are proposed:
joint information management and joint response planning (cf. boxes 8.3 and 8.4).
The proposed approaches represent two exemplary practical conclusions from the
theoretical and empirical findings from this thesis and are considered as starting
points for further reflection and discussion. They put the focus on business planning
activities on the super-organizational, the destination level. Capacious, functionally
stronger differentiated business organizations might, however, also transfer the
addressed planning processes to the organizational level. In proposing these
approaches, no recommendations can be made with respect to the question whether
they should be initiated bottom-up by local business organizations or top-down by
local or trans-local political-administrative institutions. An answer to this questions
eventually depends on the relative political-economical perspective on the necessity of
political regulation of business management in the context of environmental
challenges such as climate change.
238
Jo i n t i n fo rm at i o n m an ag e m e n t
A joint, formalized information management network integrates local
knowledge and external expert knowledge and provides a common
knowledge base on which business planning can be based upon. Such a
network facilitates interactive, reflexive learning settings, attended by
external experts, to fill knowledge gaps, reveal misconceptions and provide
alternative interpretations of evidences on local climatic dynamics and their
impacts on the local tourism business. The establishment of a joint pool of
knowledge and experiences on climate change might also refer to subsidy
policies and climate response options to assist firms to implement response
measures that do not have own resources and capabilities for continuous
experimentation with alternative business routines and products. As a result
the dynamic capabilities of the local tourism network could be increased.
Given the interdependencies of local tourism products such a sharing of
organizational resources can be expected not to reduce the competitiveness
of the information providing organization, but rather increase the general
local competitiveness in comparison to other destinations. Given their
prominence in the local tourism business and their access to external
information streams of their associations, the local cable car company and
destination management could be reasonable nuclei of a joint information
management network.
Box 8.3: Building local capacity of response: joint information management
Jo i n t re sp o n se p l a n n i n g
Local efforts of joint planning of responses to climate change among local
business organizations apply both to joint organizational investments and to the
coordination of individual business planning.
Joint investments into local responses to climate change raise the investment
volume for business responses to climate change beyond the means of individual
business organizations. In addition to the benefits of pooling the organizational
resources, the building of consortia supposably increases the reputation towards
external funders (e.g. banks) and therefore further increases the access to
potential investment capital.
Joint response planning by coordinating individual business planning activities
facilitates the development of concerted local climate response strategies in three
ways: First, the local business organization acquire the possibility to maintain or
extend the coordination of the interdependent local tourism products in a coadapting tourism system by a goal-directed process. Second, the responsibilities
for both climate response functions – temporary crisis management and longerterm adaptation of core products – can be coordinated among the local business
organizations. Thereby the efficient use of limited organizational resources can be
facilitated and functional response gaps on the level of the local destination be
avoided. Third, given the challenges and investment incentives of the local
tourism business other than climate change, joint response planning could also
involve synergetic business strategies, simultaneously addressing different
business incentives. Thereby the level of integration in local business planning
could be further increased and again support the efficient use of limited
organizational resources.
The effectiveness of these joint response planning options is likely to increase
with the level of coordination and share of involved organizations. Similarly to
the suggested joint information management (cf. box 8.3), the joint response
planning could be coordinated by lead-organizations of the local tourism
business that hold the reputation to integrate different organizational
perspectives.
Box 8.4: Building local capacity of response: joint response planning
239
240
8.2.3
Implications for further research
The exploration and elaboration of the capacity of response concept as well as the
conclusions on capacity building in business organizations has put the social science
perspective in climate change research center stage. Studying the real-world
conditions of business planning in the context of climate change revealed that –
albeit the development of scientific knowledge on climate phenomena, their impacts
as well potential response options are an essential basis for effective climate responses
– the knowledge cannot come to effect unless the societal context of its use are taken
into account. The conclusions on building capacity of response suggest that the
specific – local, sectoral, organizational – conditions need to be considered when
addressing societal responses to climate change. In this respect it seems necessary to
further expand the efforts of social science research in this field in order to reduce the
existing imbalance between the knowledge bases of the natural and the social science
based climate research.
The elaboration of the capacity of response concept as well as the conclusions on
capacity building in business organizations represent one contribution to an
interdisciplinary understanding of the climate change phenomenon. The suggested
directions for future research emphasize the need for integrative research perspectives
as well as for pursuing grounded theory building.
•
Linking the proposed concepts to a broader theoretical
c o n t e x t . The selection of research fields to contribute to this thesis has been
based on its business organizations’ focus and concepts that are currently discussed
in this context. By integrating additional theoretical perspectives such as social
capital and network theories (e.g., Burt 1995, Price 1995) as well as psychological
theories (e.g. Festinger 1962, Ajzen 1991), the proposed capacity of response
concept could be further differentiated.
•
C o n s i d e r i n g i n t e r a c t i o n s a m o n g d e s t i n a t i o n s . Currently the research
interest on the potential of cooperations among destinations in terms of coping
with climate change is on the rise (e.g. Wyss et al. 2009). Research in this context
could reveal enablers and inhibitors beyond the level of individual destinations by
that would add to the proposed capacity of response concept.
241
•
Exploring differences in the capacity of response with respect
t o r e s p o n s e f u n c t i o n s . Against the background of the proposed functionally
differentiated response model the identification of specific capacities, facilitating
responses to temporary climate crises and longer-term climate trends, would
increase the practical value of the model.
•
Applying the proposed capacity of response concept to other
b u s i n e s s c o n t e x t s . Introducing the proposed concept in case studies in other
business context (e.g., other tourism sectors, agriculture) would allow to both
sharpen the proposed concept by contrasting it with specific conditions of these
contexts and to further explore the transferability of the concept beyond the
Alpine winter tourism industry.
•
Incorporating integrative sustainability assessment of response
s t r a t e g i e s . Even though the assessment of future of ecological, economical,
societal and regulatory limitations of response options has been envisaged by
addressing awareness-raising about the feasibility of response options it has not
been elaborated in its organizational consequences. The development of
sustainability assessments procedures for the planning of climate responses would
further allow including climate change mitigation strategies as ways of
precautionary climate response.
8.2.4
Practical implications
Being based on empirical insights on real-world business planning in the context of
climate change, the redefined conceptualization of the organizational capacity of
response is proposed as conceptual framework of strategic business planning in the
Alpine winter tourism industry. Against the considerations of the novelty of climate
change and the urgency of climate responses in this industry that have been addressed
earlier (cf. section 3.2.2), the conclusions on building capacity of response also
provide starting points for practical approaches to these challenges. The following
recommendations are given to apply the proposed frameworks in real-world business
planning:
242
•
Increasing competitive advantage by building organizational
c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e . Expanding beyond the affected skiing business
involves business innovations. If implemented resolutely at an early stage,
innovative tourism products potentially imply first mover advantages, shaping
alternative tourism trends. Competitive advantage also arises through the capacity
to implement crisis management strategies to weather temporal climate
adversities.
•
Reconciling interests and responsibilities among local business
n e t w o r k . Due to the mutual dependencies of local business organizations on
each others tourism products, the individual capacities of response are an issue for
the destination’s economic well-being, as well. As a consequence, building capacity
of response should not only be considered on the level of the individual
organization, but rather coordinated among the business networks.
•
Increasing the organizational capacity of response through
c o o p e r a t i o n a n d r e s o u r c e s h a r i n g . The very limited resources in many
Alpine tourism firms can be compensated by a cooperative planning and
implementation of climate response strategies, facilitated by the traditional
interrelatedness of local business organizations. The mutual benefit of resource
sharing in this respect does not only refer to financial capital, but also to the
diversity of complementing experiences, perspectives and information.
•
Ti m e l y a n d i n t e g r a t e d r e v i e w o f o n e ’s c a p a c i t y o f r e s p o n s e .
Raising the issue of building organizational capacity of response in all of its three
dimensions (awareness, commitment, resources) at an early stage facilitates
proactive and preventive planning approaches in the context of climate change.
This also includes the concurrent integration of other planning incentives and
environmental challenges, considering that business planning with climate change
cannot be carried out as an isolated process.
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Annex
Annex Contents
A 1. Case profiles................................................................................260
A 1.1 Case-destinations: local environments for business planning in the face of climate
change................................................................................................................260
Case-destination A.........................................................................................................268
Case-destination B.........................................................................................................272
A 1.2 Case-organizations: business planning in the face of climate change................276
Destination A................................................................................................................277
Destination B................................................................................................................302
A 2. Catalog of additional empirical material......................................320
A 3. Interview guides..........................................................................324
A 3.1 Interview guide for business managers..............................................................324
Introduction..................................................................................................................324
Personal experience and education of the managers..........................................................324
Business planning..........................................................................................................325
Local business network...................................................................................................326
Room for further issues of relevance.................................................................................327
Short questionnaire: socio-economic data on the business..................................................327
A 3.2 Additional questions to representatives of other organizations (local
administration, tourism associations).................................................................327
Organizational planning...............................................................................................327
Social network...............................................................................................................328
260
ANNEX
A 1. Case profiles
A 1.1 Case-destinations: local environments for business planning
in the face of climate change
The case-destinations have been selected on the basis of three criteria
(cf. box 5.2: 123):
(i) a joint, high dependency of the local economy on the winter tourism business
(climate sensitivity), based on the assumption that climate change is an issue of
general economic relevance in these destinations;
(ii) contrasting observed and projected trends in local climatic values, relevant to the
winter tourism business (climate exposure), in the context of a general aboveglobal-average temperature increase in the Alpine region;
(iii) contrasting tourist capacities and quality standards, based on the assumption
that the sizes of organizational and their quality segments imply differing
management practices.
The characteristics of the two selected destinations A and B, with respect to the three
criteria, are briefly summarized and contrasted within this section. A more detailed
characterization is provided in the respective profile-sections on the destinations
(cf. pages 268ff. and 272ff.).
Both local tourism economies of destinations A and B strongly depend on the
tourism industry in general and the winter business in particular (cf. table A1).
Table A.1: Climate sensitivity indicators of the case-destinations
(Average of the years 2002-2006, Data sources: ÖHV, Joanneum Research)
Destination
Share of tourism in overall employment
Share of overnight stays in winter season
A
42%
54%
B
32%
63%
With respect to the local climate-exposure factors, the local climate prospects for the
two destinations draw on a recent study by Prettenthaler et al. that utilized
regionalized data from the REMO-UBA climate model to compile scenarios for
A 1.1 CASE-DESTINATIONS: LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS FOR BUSINESS
PLANNING IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
261
temperature and precipitation patterns of several Austrian winter sport destinations
(Prettenthaler et al. 2009). The geographical and altitudinal proximity of two of the
modeled destinations with the two case-destinations enabled the transfer of the
climate data. The climate prospects presented in this section are based on the A1B
global emission scenario, which is based on the assumption of a moderate growth in
greenhouse gas emissions in the proximate future (cf. IPCC 2007: 762,
cf. table 2.1: 28)). Likewise the past climate data that is presented here has been
transferred from the records of climate stations in the proximity of the two
destinations. In order to ascertain the transfer of climate data, the resulting climate
profiles have been validated by one of the authors of the cited study. 19
Case-destination A and B differ with respect to their geographical position in two
different climate zones in the Austrian Alps (table A.2). In winter season the air
masses in the continental zone (destination A) are currently in average 3° colder than
Atlantic air masses that influence the west-Austrian climate (destination B), and
contain less humidity due to the continental influence (Prettenthaler et al. 2009). As
a consequence in comparison to destination B the amount of precipitation in the
winter seasons in destination A is lower in sum, but at the same time is more likely to
emerge as snow than at the same altitude in western destinations (ibid., table A.2).
The conditions in early winter (November, December) are decisive for building up
the basic snow cover for the skiing season, either through natural snow, artificial snow
or a combination of both.
Table A.2: Climate exposure indicators of the case-destinations 1/2
(Data source: Prettenthaler et al. 2009)
Destination
Climate
zone
Altitude with 90% snow
precipitation in early winter (ND)
Altitude with 90% snow
precipitation in winter (DJF)
A
Continental
1.201-1.300m
1.001-1.100m
B
Atlantic
1.401-1.500m
1.301-1.400m
Table A.3: Climate exposure indicators of the case-destinations 2/2
(Data sources: ÖHV, Joanneum Research, municipal web pages)
Destination
Altitude of base station
Altitude of municipality
center
Altitude of peak station
A
750m
1.000m
1.300m
B
750m
750m
1.900m
19 Herbert Formayer, Institute for Meteorology, BOKU University, Vienna
262
ANNEX
Despite the influence of different air masses (Continental, Atlantic) that the
destinations are exposed to, the altitude of the respective ski resort remains an
important factor for the natural snow reliability in the destinations
(cf. section 2.4.1: 45, OECD 2007). Therefore, two destinations have been selected
that vary with respect to the altitudinal range of their ski resorts (table A.3). Given
that both resorts also include areas clearly below 1.000m, an increased likelihood of
local warming trends, relevant to the local winter tourism businesses is assumed.
Figure A.1: Summer and winter mean temperature change in the case-destinations
(1976-2008)
(Data source: ZAMG Austria)
Observations of past temperature trends indicate a clear trend of increased heavy
storm events and increasing mean temperatures for both destinations (figures A.1,
A.6: 266), albeit the temperature trends take place on different temperature levels
that can be related to the different altitudes of the destinations. For both destinations
the inter-annual variability of mean temperature in winter season is considerably
stronger than in the summer season. This variability of the winter climate holds also
true with respect to the natural snow conditions (figure A.7: 267). Destination B is
263
characterized by a higher natural snow-reliability (cf. definition on page 45)
compared to destination A. This also holds true for snow covers of 5cm and more
that allow for snow-covered winter landscapes, also aside the ski slopes. Future
projections of the natural and technical snow reliability in the destinations point out
the current dependence of both destinations on artificial snowmaking in order to
ensure a core business in winter season. With respect to the short-term future (20112040) the projections for both destinations suggest that a snow-related winter
business requires either extensive snowmaking capacities or sophisticated
snowmaking technology to reduce the risk of periodic climate crises (figures A.2
and A.3).
The case-destinations differ considerably with respect to their overall tourist
capacities and the size of their ski resorts, on which their winter tourism business are
based on (tables A.4 and A.5). The same holds true for the prevalent size and quality
standards of business organizations. The accommodation business in destination A is
Figure A.2: Loss of skier days in destination A due to lack of snow in winter (DJF) – comparison of
different snowmaking technologies with regard to different climatic events
(Source: adapted from Prettenthaler et al. 2009)
264
ANNEX
Figure A.3: Loss of skier days in destination B due to lack of snow in winter (DJF) – comparison of
different snowmaking technologies with regard to different climatic events
(Source: adapted from Prettenthaler et al. 2009)
dominated by standard and comfort class quarters with a maximum of 3 stars of the
standard hotel classification (figure A.4).
Table A.4: Socio-economical indicators of the case-destinations
latest available figures, rounded (data sources: Statistik Austria)
Destination
Population
Beds offered in total
Overnight stays
A
600
700
33.000
B
3.100
3.500
240.000
Table A.5: Skiing infrastructure of the case-destinations
latest available figures, rounded (data-sources: ÖHV, Joanneum Research, municipal web pages)
Destination
Total length of accessible ski slopes
Total transport capacity (1000 pm/h)
A
20km
1.300
B
200km
5.000
265
Figure A.4: Shares of the quality segments in the accommodation
businesses of case-destinations A and B with regard of the
total amount of beds provided
(Data source: Statistik Austria, Joanneum Research)
In contrast destination B has experienced a growth in upper class facilities within the
last decade, resulting in a substantial amount of hotel beds in the 4/5 stars category
of the standard hotel classification that have become the figureheads of the
destination marketing.
Figure A.5: Local business networks in the case-destinations:
cooperations and weight of the involved organizations
(Source: Case study analysis)
266
ANNEX
Figure A.6: Occurrence of extreme storm events in the case destinations
An important distinctive feature that emerged in the course of the case studies refers
to the characteristics of the local business network. The analysis of cooperations
among local business organizations (e.g. joint investments) and their importance for
the involved organizations in terms of the volume of shared resources resulted in two
distinct network types in destinations A and B. The basic patterns of the network
types have been depicted in a network diagram (figure A.5). In both destinations the
cable car operator and the tourism associations function as important network hubs
where individual resources (e.g., information, financial capital) converge. Besides the
different weights of involved organizations, in terms of accessible financial resources,
destination B also differs from destination A with respect to a much higher number
267
Figure A.7: Natural snow cover in the case-destinations in the core winter season [DJF]
of inter-linkages. The networks reflect very well the distinct local cooperative spirits
that have been identified in the case studies (‘united we stand’ in destination B and a
spirit of ‘fending for oneself ’ in destination A, cf. section 6.3.3: 176).
268
ANNEX
Case-destination A
Characteristics of the local tourism economy
Destination A is a small municipality, situated at the north eastern foothills of the
Austrian Alps, has a population size of less than 1.000. Tourism is the biggest sector
of the local economy with regard to its contributions to the local job market. It
accounts for more than 40% of the overall local employment. Destination A offers
tourism facilities for visitors with an average income. Its accommodation businesses
provide around 700 beds in standard and comfort class quarters with a maximum of
3 stars of the standard hotel classification (table A.4: 264, figure A.4: 265). 54% of
the overall 33.000 overnight stays per year are spend here in the winter season
(tables A.1: 260 and A.4: 264). The local cable car company provides its clients access
to around 20km of slopes between 750 and 1.300m altitude (tables A.3: 261 and
A.5: 264). About 80% of the slopes are covered by artificial snowmaking facilities.
The current development of the tourism economy in destination A is strongly
determined by a downward spiral of timeworn infrastructure – low price levels – low
revenue levels – lacking investments for maintenance and innovation, reinforced by
the interrelated process of migration and demographic change.
We’re not too much frequented here and if one is entirely dependent on the tourism
business and one overnight stay yields 30€ then it’s very hard to earn money and hence
difficult to make investments. Accordingly the overall standard is not that high and that’s
where the circle closes as therefore we’re not able to offer too much to our guests.
Manager of a boarding house
Es ist nicht so viel los und wenn man jetzt wirklich nur auf das Gastgeschäft angewiesen ist und eine Übernachtung kostet 30€ dann
kommt halt ganz einfach das Geld sehr mühsam rein und mit den Investitionen ist es natürlich schwierig. Aber dementsprechend ist halt
auch der Standard nicht so hoch und da beißt sich die Katze wieder in den Schwanz, weil dadurch wird halt auch nicht sehr viel geboten.
Climatic conditions of the destination
Destination A is located in the north-eastern part of the Austrian Alps, north to the
main ridge, at an altitude of 1.000m above sea level. The skiing area ranges from
750m up to 1.300m. Its temperature and precipitation patterns are influenced by
North-European and continental air masses. In winter season, the air masses are
currently in average 3° colder than Atlantic air masses. The latter influence the westAustrian climate and contain less humidity due to the continental influence
(Prettenthaler et al. 2009). As a consequence, in comparison to western parts of
269
Austria the amount of precipitation in the winter seasons is lower in sum, but at the
same time is more likely to emerge as snow than at the same altitude in western
destinations. Above 1.201-1.300m in destination A more snow will account for more
than 90% of the precipitation in early winter (November and December). The
conditions in early winter are decisive for building up the basic snow cover for the
skiing season – either through natural snow, artificial snow or a combination of both.
For the main winter season (December to February) the 90% mark is crossed under
current climatic conditions at an altitude between 1.001 and 1.100m
(cf. table A.2: 261, Prettenthaler et al. 2009)
Figure A.1 on page 262 illustrates the progression of the temperature patterns for
summer and winter seasons in the previous three decades (1976-2008). It reveals a
slight average temperature increase for winter (approx. +0.8°C) and summer (approx.
+1°C). Particularly in the winter season this trend is superimposed by the high
interannual variability with an overall amplitude of almost 6°C for the last 3 decades.
Similarly the trend of natural snow cover in the last three decades above all is
determined by the big interannual variability rather than a clear trend. In the
contrary, figure A.6 on page 266 depicts a considerable increase of extreme storm
events in the winter seasons within the last decade that potentially required to
temporarily shutting down the cable car operations.
Compared to the reference period in the years 1971-2000, the regional temperature
scenario (A1B) for destination A suggest a temperature increase in the winter months
between 0.6 and 1.3°C for the period 2011-2040 and an increase of 1.7 to 2.5°C for
the 2036-2065 period (Prettenthaler et al. 2009). Figure A.2 on page 263 illustrates
the calculated loss of skier days per main winter season depending on the capacity
and the quality of the snowmaking technology applied within the periods around
2025 (2011-2040) and 2050 (2036-2065). According to the calculations of
Prettenhaler et al., the current snowmaking technology will not be sufficient in the
2025 period in order to prevent a loss of 45% of the skier days every five years or
25% every second year in high winter season (currently: 30% and 10% respectively).
Yet, investments into new snowmaking technology (enabling snowmaking at higher
temperatures), into the density of snow guns (increasing the snow output per hour),
or both still are an option to maintain suitable winter-sport conditions through the
seasons for most years (Prettenthaler et al. 2009)
270
ANNEX
Local business and institutional environment
Figure A.5 on page 265 depicts the importance and the relations between the
different players in the local tourism economy as they have been derived from the
empirical inquiry. The view that the individual businesses need to act and exist
independently from each other, fending for themselves in the first place, has been
repeatedly and explicitly emphasized by local managers in the interviews. Even
though the businesses make use of the others’ attractions, still investments into local
tourism products are conducted on the level of individual organizations. The
reluctance to substantial cooperations and joint investments is reflected by a generally
limited level of organization between the local business organizations.
Against the background of the general low appreciation of local cooperation it is not
surprising that the local tourism association cannot draw on an active participation of
its members. Even though all tourism businesses are organized within the association,
the overall revenue of membership fees does not allow for more than one joint
advertisement in a regional newspaper. In this respect the local cable car organization
takes in a networking function as many of the local tourism businesses are
shareholder in the local cable car operator. Even though the local municipality is the
biggest shareholder, holding almost 90% of the shares, the businesses have an
important influence on the business plans of the cable car, in that substantial
decisions cannot be made without consulting them.
The local destination management is borne by the municipality and carried out
mainly by a single full-time employee during the workdays. In addition to the
destination marketing, the destination management aims to initiate cooperation and
a concerted strategic planning among the local businesses. In recent years the
municipality has facilitated several workshops for collective visioning and planning
the future of local tourism that resulted in a composition of possible fields of actions
and measures aimed to improve the quality of the local tourism products.
The municipality pursues a general strategy to expand the local products for summer
tourism, in order to reduce the dependency to the winter season and to increase
overall sufficient revenues to escape the negative economic downward spiral (cf. page
268). The head of the local administration (RX) explained in the interview that this
strategy is also linked to the local climatic conditions as the natural climate variability
with its recurring snow poor winter seasons would add to the negative spiral. Climate
271
change, in contrast, at best represents a future threat to RX that could not be the
basis for current investment decisions (cf. box A.1).
For RX climate change is a future problem which RX expects to be relevant
in about 20 to 50 years. It is not among the top priorities of the
municipality’s current planning activities. Climate change for RX implies a
permanent state of detrimental climatic conditions. In contrast to other
parts of the world, RX does not perceive indications for such a phenomenon
in her destination. Anyhow the snow-poor winter season of 2006/07 has
revealed the high vulnerability of the local economy with regard to local
climate dynamics. RX explains that this negative impact of the normal
climate variability has pushed the general local tourism strategy to increase
the share of revenues in the summer season. With regard to climate change
artificial snowmaking might be the way to go. Because one cannot be 100%
certain about climate change, it would be a wrong way for RX solely to
focus on summer tourism, but none the less it is a good provision. In order
to take more substantial decisions, RX considers it to be reasonable to await
the issue to become clearer.
Box A.1: Climate change construct of the head of the municipality in destination A
One critical factor for the local tourism development of destination A that also
impedes the implementation of the ideas that have been developed in the workshops,
are the conflicts of interests between tourism businesses and owners of the
surrounding land. The reluctance of landholders to provide tourists access to their
forests in combination with their political influence represents a severe obstacle for
the development of skiing-independent tourism products. In fact, all attempts to
establish mountain biking infrastructure for summer tourists have failed due to the
resistance of landholders (cf. box 6.5: 180).
272
ANNEX
Case-destination B
Characteristics of the local tourism economy
Destination B is a municipality of more than 3.000 inhabitants, situated in northwestern Austria, north of the Alpine main ridge. Tourism is the biggest sector of the
local economy with regard to its contributions to the local job market. It accounts for
more than 30% of the overall local employment. Through a cooperation with an
adjacent skiing resort the local cable car company operates cable cars and ski lifts
between 750m and 1.900m altitude and provides its clients access to around 200km
of slopes (cf. tables A.3: 261 and A.5: 264). About 90% of the slopes are covered by
artificial snowmaking facilities. 63% of the overall 240.000 overnight stays per year
are spend here in the winter season (cf. tables A.1: 260 and A.4: 264).
Within the last decade destination B has experienced a growth in upper class facilities
resulting in a substantial amount of hotel beds in the 4/5 stars category of the
standard hotel classification. They accounted for almost 40% of the overnight stays
in the year 2007, even though private boarding houses and other unclassified
accommodation businesses remain the biggest segment with respect to the amount of
beds offered (Östat 2008, figure A.4: 265).
For the years to come, the local tourism associations expect a decline in the number
of boarding houses as many children of the owners are not willing to continue the
business of their parents. Even though many of the small businesses are skeptical
about it, the current development of the local tourism economy in destination B is
strongly defined by the continuation of the high-quality strategy of the previous
years.
Climatic conditions of the destination
Destination B is located in north-western Austria north of the Alpine main ridge, at
an altitude of 750m above sealevel. The local cable cars and lifts operate in an altitude
between 750m up to 1.900m and give access to a skiing resort with an altitude up to
2.000m. The local climate is mainly influenced by Atlantic airmasses. In winter
season they induce considerable higher amounts of precipitation and are in average
3°C warmer than the airmasses reaching the East of Austria (Prettenthaler et al.
2009). For this reason the altitudinal threshold above which more then 90% of the
273
precipitation appears as snowfall is elevated to 1.401-1.500m in early winter
(november and december) and 1.301-1.400m in main winter season (december to
february). The conditions in early winter are decisive for building up the basic snow
cover, either through natural snow, artificial snow or a combination of both.
Figure A.1 on page 262 illustrates the progression of the temperature patterns of
destination B for summer and winter seasons in the previous three decades (19762008). In comparison to destination A the figure shows a stronger linear trend of the
temperature increase with about +1.7°C in winter and +2.8°C in summer. The
positive trend in summer is only marginally blurred by the interannual variability as
considerable outlier values only appear above the trend. In contrast, the temperature
trend winter season, though clearer than in destination A, still is superimposed to a
good extent by interannual variations with an amplitude 3.5 times higher than the
increase in the linear trend. In the last two decades, there has been a significant
increase of extreme winter storm events in the region of destination B that potentially
required to temporarily shut down the cable car operations (cf. figure A.6: 266).
The regional temperature scenario (A1B) suggests a mean winter temperature
increase for the period between 2011 and 2040 of 0.8 to 1.6°C in destination B
compared to the reference period 1971-2000. For the period 2026 to 2065 the total
winter temperature increase is considered to be between 2.0 and 2.6 degrees
(Prettenthaler et al. 2009). Figure A.3 on page 264 depicts the calculated loss of skier
days per main winter season given the capacity and the quality of the snowmaking
technology applied within the periods around 2025 (2011-2040) and 2050 (20362065). In order to prevent recurring declines of skiier days of 50% in average every
five years, upper standard snowmaking facilities would have to be applied in the 2025
period.
Local business and institutional environment
The relations and the importance of the different players of the tourism economy in
destination B, as they have been derived from the empirical inquiry, are illustrated in
Figure A.5 on page 265. The local tourism network is mainly defined by two groups:
a group of the big businesses, including the local cable car operator and big hotels
that account for the majority of overnight stays and the group of small boarding
houses that account for the majority of beds offered to tourists in the destination.
274
ANNEX
The first group of the big players considers itself to be the locomotive of local
economic development and is the driving force of the high-quality strategy of the
local tourism products. The businesses within this group of innovators are actively
engaged in cooperative planning and joint substantial investments. Their ideas to
access new business opportunities by expanding the local tourism business beyond
the winter season are supported by the local tourism association and the local
destination management organization.
The local businesses invest due to the reason that there are two seasons. And the better the
use of capacities, the more the overall standard will be increased and in turn again the
investment activities of the businesses. That constitutes a chain reaction. Then we’re all
doing well.
Manager of an upper class hotel
Die Betriebe hier investieren aus dem Grund, weil es zwei Saisonen sind. Und je bessere Auslastung, desto besser wird auch der Standard
gehoben und auch die Investitionsfreudigkeit der Betriebe. Und das ist eine Kettenreaktion. Dann geht es uns allen gut.
The second group, in contrast, is more reluctant to the ambitions of qualitative and
quantitative growth. They are afraid that their resources do not allow them to keep
up with the local tourism trend. This trend, in addition, might discriminate against
their traditional guest segment. This perspective is backed by the local association of
small boarding houses which represents the small businesses in the local tourism
association.
In cooperation with an adjacent tourism destination, the local tourism association of
destination B has build up a destination management organization that works seven
days a week with overall 12 employees. The objective of the destination management
is to advise the tourism businesses, set up destination wide tourism offers, provide
infrastructure for tourists’ activities and advertize them. Through its substantial
resources the organization has a big influence on the overall character of the local
tourism and its products. Beside the activities that address the external group of
tourism, the destination management and the local tourism association are also active
in organizing collaborative planning activities for the local tourism businesses.
However, after experiencing the sluggish and little effective progress of such
participatory processes, the destination management switched to the strategy of
develop its program within the small group of innovators and then confronting the
remaining members with faits accomplis.
275
The local administration is not among the main players of the tourism development
in destination B. In this respect the fundamental tasks are accomplished by the
tourism businesses and their network associations. The remaining task of the local
administration, in the eyes of the major, is to balance the interests of all groups. With
respect to climate change FJ also sees no need for involvement as the tourism actors
already provided excellent preparations for this contingency. Moreover, FJ is general
skeptical towards the reliability of the climate prospects that have been reported
(cf. box A.2).
Climate change is not a relevant issue for FJ’s planning activities. From
personal experiences as well as from reading statistics FJ has learned that the
interannual variability of the local climatic patterns represent a natural
phenomenon. Because of the comprehensive snowmaking infrastructure as
well as the exposition of the hillsides, FJ sees the destination perfectly
prepared for future winter seasons that are characterized by a lack of natural
snow cover. Concerning long-term climatic trends FJ doubts that the
human society has such a big influence as the media coverage currently
suggests and finds support for this opinion in an exhibition about past
glacier retreats. In this regard, FJ is worried about exaggerated reports about
the big catastrophe that damage the reputation of the Alpine region.
Nevertheless, FJ supports a local project of renewable energy production
that helps to mitigate detrimental greenhouse gas emissions.
Box A.2: Climate change construct of the head of the municipality in destination B
276
ANNEX
A 1.2 Case-organizations: business planning in the face of climate
change
The selected case-organizations represent the basic level of the embedded case studies
on the capacity of tourism businesses to respond to climate change. They provide
insights how climate responses are – or are not – planned and implemented in real
world contexts that means, for instance, in the context of other environmental
challenges. The business cases are the basis on which a concept of the organizational
capacity of response has been developed that is embedded within the limits and
enablers of business organizations and their environments. Therefore the uniqueness
and the distinctness of the cases are indispensable contributors to the analysis
(cf. chapter 5.1). In order to account for the individuality of the cases, they are
portrayed in detail in the following sections. The case-organizations are sorted along
the two case-destinations in alphabetic order of their aliases.
At the end of each case profile the lessons learned with regard to enablers and
inhibitors of climate responses are summarized in tabular form. A second table
displays the response options that have been considered by the management of the
respective business. Besides the measures that have been deliberately considered and
applied as climate responses also those measures are displayed that have been applied
for other reasons, but represent reasonable options to respond to climate change
(cf. section 3.3.3). The assumption behind doing so is that climate responses also
depend on other factors than the awareness about climatic phenomena. The analysis
of non-deliberate responses thus might led to further insights in this regard. The
response strategies are categorized in different types that correspond to the typologies
in section 3.3.3 and are again summarized in table A.6, below.
Table A.6: Types of climate response strategies
(cf. chapter 3.3)
PRO Protect the affected winter tourism business
EXP
Expand beyond the affected winter tourism business
CRI
Crisis management
A 1.2 CASE-ORGANIZATIONS: BUSINESS PLANNING IN THE FACE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
277
Destination A
Case [EA]
Organization
The mountain lodge (alt. 1.300m) that has been rented out to the current managers
has been established in the beginning of the 2000s decade and provides catering for
skiers and hikers. In total the gastronomy has a guest capacity of about 60. The staff
size of four in summer is increased to six in the winter season that accounts for 80%
of the income.
Manager
EA, who grew up in the region, has been professionally trained in the hotel business.
She has been working outside of the region many years in- and outside the tourism
business. She has been running the mountain lodge together with her partner for two
years, so far. In addition EA is the vice-president of the local tourism association.
Organizational planning with local climate dynamics
Once the old local lumberjack was here and he told me that in 1924 there hasn’t been any
snow here either. Sometime in the year of 1996 there has been poor snow, as well. In
contrast we had too much snow in the previous year of 2005/06. From my perspective this
is not climate change. I assume that those things have always existed. Sure, every year this
topic is raised and of course the media would badly bandy it about. Climate change, yes I
think it exists, but not that we would notice it every year. If I had a grandma, she could tell
me more about it. But within my time frame...
Es war einer da..., der alte Holzknecht von hier, und hat gesagt: 1924 war auch Null Schnee. Irgendwann im 96er Jahr war auch wenig
Schnee. Dafür war auch das Jahr davor, also von 05 auf 06 war zuviel Schnee. ...Für mich ist es nicht der Klimawandel. Meiner
Einschätzung nach hat es das schon immer gegeben. Es ist halt jedes Jahr Thema und natürlich die Medien treten das irrsinnig breit.
Klimawandel ja, ich denke der ist da, aber nicht so, dass es jedes Jahr so stark spürbar ist...hätte ich eine Großmutter, könnte die mir mehr
darüber sagen. Aber ich sage, in meinem Zeitrahmen...
For EA a long-term average change and the natural variability in the local climate are
two issues that have to be looked upon independently. She is annoyed by the public
media that confuses both phenomena. The long-term nature of climate change for
EA has two implications: First, one has to look at several decades of past development
in order to understand climate change. The trends that from the perspective of EA’s
personal experience have happened, so far, include an increase in summer
temperatures, a blurring of the seasons as well as an increased snow uncertainty in
278
ANNEX
autumn. Second, climate change is nothing that poses a risk on her business that
means in a time horizon relevant to her business planning.
With the start of her business, EA fulfilled her long-year’s personal dreams of
arranging and managing a mountain lodge. EA’s business is still in the start-up phase
where she tries to realize many of the ideas that have accumulated in the past. She
personally describes her planning type as being spontaneous and going with her gut
feelings rather than being a strategic planer. In EA’s opinion, it is the local cable car
operator that has to deal with climate change and consider these issues in its
investments and neither her business nor the local tourism association she is involved
with.
Table A.7: Planned and implemented response measures [EA]
Motivation
Response Measure
Deliberate responses to climate change
none
Non-deliberate responses to climate change
none
Response Type
Status of
(cf. table A.6: 276) implementation
CLIMATE CHANGE
279
Table A.8: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [EA]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
Attributing personal experiences of snow poor •
winter seasons to a general trend of
decreasing snow reliability
•
Attributing personal experiences of erratic
temperature and precipitation patterns to a
general trend of blurring of the seasons
Attributing personal experiences of hot
summers to a general warming trend
Skepticism towards the public media lowers
the perceived seriousness of the economic
threats reported with regard to climate change
Start-up phase of the business: focus on establishing the business rather than on strategic
planning
Commitment building
•
•
•
•
Short-term planning horizon due to intuitive
and spontaneous planning type
Responsibility to deal with the issue of
climate change attributed to others (cable car
operator)
Business planning oriented at dreams from
the past
Manager type: spontaneous, no long-term
planner
280
ANNEX
Case [IL]
Organization
The predecessor enterprises of the ski school go back to the first half of the 20 th
century. The current business is owned and managed by two equal partners that have
taken over the business in the beginning of the 2000s decade. After the transfer the
managers continuously expanded the business, but generally followed the basic
strategies that had been set up by their predecessor. The business is only opened in
winter season where it employs between four and 30 persons, depending on the
demand.
Manager
IL is one of two partners that own and manage the business. IL was professionally
trained as a baker. He had been working for several years in this profession before
moved back to work in the local tourism branch, due to the beginning personal
relationship with his wife. IL had been employed by the ski school since the mid
1990s before he took over the business in the beginning of the 2000s decade. Besides
his occupation in the ski school business IL manages a farm and boarding house
together with his wife. Thereby his overall winter/summer income ratio adds up to
60/40.
IL is certain that there had already been bad winter seasons in the past and he does
not expect any changes in the climatic patterns within the few remaining years until
his retirement. He feels himself supported in his personal observations by the former
manager of the local cable car operator. Hence climate change is not an issue that he
is discussing with his business partner.
The former manager [of the cable car operator] looked at it the same way, in that there have
been bad winters and good winters in the past as well. Hence, in this regard nothing will
change in the years to come.
Der frühere Geschäftsführer... der hat das eigentlich auch so gesehen, dass das früher genauso schlechte Winter gegeben hat und gute
Winter... Also in den nächsten Jahren wird sich da nichts ändern.
However, from his perspective as a shareholder of the local cable car operator the
experience of the snow poor winter season 2006/07 revealed to IL the existential
threat of climate extremes for the business, particularly against the background of
CLIMATE CHANGE
281
scarce financial resources. In this regard IL sees an urgent need for action in terms of
increasing the snowmaking capacity.
Due to the short local winter season IL considers the strong dependency of the local
economy on winter tourism an obstacle for the long-term economic well-being of his
destination. As he would like to allow his children to make a living within the
destination IL wants to contribute to extending the relevance of the local summer
tourism by developing summer tourism products with his ski school (e.g. sports or
adventure school). The biggest barriers to this plan that IL perceived so far is the
limited willingness of local businesses to engage in cooperative activities that would
be required as well as the reluctance of local landholders to open their land for
summer tourism offers.
In contrast to the overall local tourism economy, he sees his own business much less
vulnerable to snow-poor winters, as the business does only involve small fixed costs
and no permanent employees. As IL also has other sources of income he is also not
entirely economically dependent on the revenues of this business.
The occurrence of [snow poor winter seasons] is not so relevant for us as we don‘t draw on
much infrastructure. With regard to our staff it‘s like that: no work, no employees. For us in
the ski school business it is certainly easier to cope with these things. Both my colleague and
me also draw also on other sources of income and therefore for it does not necessarily result
in our ruin.
Bei uns ist es nicht so relevant, wir haben keinen großen Materialeinsatz oder sonst irgendwas. Und bei den Beschäftigten ist das so, wenn
keine Arbeit, keine Beschäftigten. Also wir als Skischule...sicher, ist für uns leichter zu verkraften... sowohl mein Kollege als auch ich haben
auch andere Standbeine und somit ist das für uns nicht unbedingt der Untergang.
Table A.9: Planned and implemented response measures [IL]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Strong economic
dependency on
the winter business
Developing summer tourism products
(e.g. sports or adventure school)
none
EXP
Planned
282
ANNEX
Table A.10: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [IL]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
Awareness of summer business opportunities
•
•
•
Personal experiences of recurring snow-rich
winters taken as evidence against climate
change as a present threat to the business
Local climate prospect based on past and
present experiences of local climatic conditions that are perceived to be unchanged
Low perceived economic vulnerability of own
business to variable climatic conditions due to
flexibility of staff size and low fixed costs
Commitment building
•
Planning horizon extended by desire to allow •
for future opportunities for his children in
local tourism
Planning horizon restricted by soon retirement
•
•
Reluctance to cooperation among local businesses
Reluctance of land owners to provide their
land for summer tourism business
CLIMATE CHANGE
283
Case [IU]
Organization
The hotel that IU manages has been established in the beginning of the 1980s by a
superordinate organization as one of six similar businesses that offer simple facilities
and particular target at young people. The business provides place for around 100
guests and is run with maximum staff size of seven persons. Within the last ten years
the winter/summer income ration has shifted from a strong summer focus to a
balanced situation.
Manager
IU, who has been born in the destination, has been hired in the end of the 1980s due
to his economic competence to manage the boarding house. IU was professionally
trained as a retail salesman. He had been working for several years as salesman at a
sports outfitters outside the destination before he returned to manage the
accommodation business.
In IU’s point of view climate change can already be observed in his destination. His
personal experiences of the winter conditions of the 10 years, in which he has been
managing his organization, provided him with clear evidence that the conditions for
skiing in winter have been continuously changing for the worse. Except one “extreme
winter” with extraordinary good snow conditions his general picture has been shaped
by his recurring personal worries, if snow would come or not. Tourists’ booking
behavior has changed accordingly.
If not the snowmaking capacity would be increased substantially, local tourism could
not be maintained, IU assumes. As he is not sure to which extent the local cable car
operator will extend its snowmaking facilities, he has been starting to think about
alternative tourism products that his organization might offer.
The winter seasons are getting from bad to worse. One doesn’t know to what extent our
snowmaking capacities will be extended, whether they will be extended. Slowly, we have to
begin to look for alternatives in order to be able to offer not solely skiing in winter, but
other things as well.
Die Winter werden immer schlechter. Die Beschneiung, weiß man nicht, wie die ausgebaut wird, ob sie ausgebaut wird bei uns. Man
muss sich schon langsam nach Alternativen umsehen damit man nicht nur das Skifahren hat im Winter, sondern dass man eben auch
andere Sachen anbieten kann.
284
ANNEX
In this regard, the gymnasium that IU has planned in order to offer his guests a
weather-independent sports facility also holds the co-benefit as a short-term
emergency offer for winter conditions that would not allow for skiing. Furthermore,
IU is very active in acquiring new summer offers. The latter is additionally motivated
by a changed, more challenging tourism demand. Based on his personal notion of his
task to manage the business IU considers it to be his personal responsibility to find
adequate measures to respond with the changing business conditions – relying on
others support is not an option to him.
We‘re gonna do things by ourselves. Certainly we can make it on our own, otherwise I
would rather be in the wrong position. That‘s how I see it. I don‘t always need someone else
taking my hand and taking the lead. You have to define your own targets in your life and
then strive to meet these targets... In the end, this is also where your economic success
depends on.
Das machen wir selber. Das bekommen wir sicher alleine hin, weil sonst wäre ich ja fehl am Platz. So sehe ich das. Ich brauche nicht
immer einen, der mich an der Hand nimmt und hinführt. Du musst Dir selber im Leben Ziele stecken und eben dann Dich bemühen,
diese Ziele dann irgendwie zu erreichen... Weil es hängt ja auch im Endeffekt Dein wirtschaftlicher Erfolg davon ab.
Nevertheless, the implementation of IU’s business plans not least depends on the
support and the formal agreement of the superordinate organization that IU is
working for.
Table A.11: Planned and implemented response measures [IU]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Weather independence, co-in- Construction of a gymnasium as weather
centive: climate independent tourism product
change (winter)
CRI
Planned
Climate change,
Developing tourism products for the
co-incentive:
summer season
tourism trend
EXP
In process
none
CLIMATE CHANGE
285
Table A.12: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [IU]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
•
•
•
Attributing personal experiences of snow poor
winter seasons to a general trend of
decreasing snow reliability
Personal experience of negative economic
impacts of warm winter seasons revealed the
detrimental consequences of the economic
sensitivity to a change in local climatic conditions
Changed tourism demand as an additional
incentive to develop new summer tourism
products
Providing an additional offer for times of bad
weather in summer season as an additional
incentive for developing a climate-robust
response measure
Awareness of weather-robust response option
Awareness of summer business opportunities
Commitment building
•
•
Awareness of own responsibility to act due to
little confidence in response capacity of local
cable car operator
Perceived personal responsibility arising from
a manager’s role to respond to changing business conditions
•
•
Dependency on the organization’s decision
hierarchy
Dependency on the cable car infrastructure as
tourism product
286
ANNEX
Case [JF]
Organization
JF’s standard class boarding house has been established in the beginning of the 2000s
decade and has been incrementally enhanced its quality since then. It provides room
for nine guests with simple facilities and is run by JF, additionally assisted by his wife
in the winter season. The business generates the majority of its revenues in winter
season.
Manager
JF was born and grew up in Germany. He has been trained as locksmith and has been
working in this profession in several countries. In the beginning of the 2000s he
moved in the destination to start his business together with his wife. Besides this
business JF derives income from his occupation as a locksmith. He is not active in
local tourism networks.
JF bases his personal business planning on rational arguments and logical
conclusions. From this perspective the current state of climate research that has been
reported in the media leads him to the inevitable conclusion that climate change is an
existential threat to the local economy that needs to be tackled rather sooner than
later. With recurring snow poor winter seasons in previous years, JF has experienced
the vulnerability of the local tourism sector to dynamics in the local climate. Also a
recent winter season with good snow conditions did not change JF’s view.
The perception of the vulnerability of his business to climate change is not only
caused by global change itself. It is also linked to the capacity of the cable car and ski
lift operator, on which his and other businesses so far depend on, to successfully cope
with warm winter seasons. JF’s lack of confidence in this regard increases his
uncertainty about his future business conditions which in turn reduces his
motivation to further invest into his business.
When you experience seasons with the ski lift operator even telling you »just a little further
and we are flat broke«, than you have to think twice whether you carry out an investment
or not...
Also wenn solche Saisonen sind, dass der Skilift dann schon sagt: »noch ein bisschen, dann sind wir pleite«, dann muss man sich schon
überlegen, investiert man überhaupt noch...
CLIMATE CHANGE
287
From JF’s point of view responses to climate change need to involve substantial
changes in business strategies, such as shifting investments from ski tourism products
towards wellness and health tourism. From his active experience of being a tourist
himself throughout the globe JF has personally experienced this tourism trend and he
considers it a good business opportunity. But despite of that and even though JF sees
climate change as the most important issue for the local tourism business to cope
with, for himself these are only hypothetical issues as he plans to retire and abandon
the business in less than ten years.
It is not least due to this reason that JF does not feel motivated to share his opinion
and his ideas with his colleagues in the local tourism association:
And I sure won’t start to get involved in there, I grew too old for doing that... If I would
have been born here, then I probably would.....
Also ich werde mich da auch nicht mehr engagieren, da bin ich zu alt geworden dafür...Wenn ich hier geboren wäre, dann würde ich
wahrscheinlich...
Table A.13: Planned and implemented response measures [JF]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Climate change,
take advantage of Developing wellness tourism products
tourism trend
none
EXP
Hypothetical
idea
288
ANNEX
Table A.14: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [JF]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
High perceived urgency to respond to climate
change due to media coverage on climate
change
sensitivity to the variability of local climatic
conditions
Awareness about climate-robust business
opportunity
Commitment building
•
Awareness of own responsibility to act due to •
little confidence in response capacity of local
cable car operator
Short-term planning horizon due to soon
retirement and absence of family succession
•
•
Access to personal experiences about current •
tourism trends
Access to an outsider’s perspective on the local
tourism business and perception of alternative
business opportunities
Reluctance to cooperation due to missing
local attachment
CLIMATE CHANGE
289
Case [MN]
Organization
The local cable car operator has been established as a private limited company in the
beginning of the 1970s. The business operates cable cars and ski lifts between 750m
and 1.300m altitude and provides its passengers access to overall 20km of ski slopes.
The business is only opened in winter season where it employs 30 persons. In
summer season, where no income is created, five persons are employed for the
management of the business and running revisions of its infrastructure. The local
municipality is the biggest shareholder, holding almost 90% of the shares. The
remaining shares belong to more than 30 shareholders, mostly to persons and
businesses, involved in the local tourism sector.
Manager
MN has been involved in the management of the cable car operator for one year.
Born in the destination she has been trained and gained experience in business
development in several companies outside the tourism sector. Besides her occupation
in the cable car company, she continues to work on a freelance basis as organizations
consultant. MN has been dismissed shortly after the interview took place due to
personal resentments of the organization’s shareholders.
Her position provides MN access to various sources of information about climate
change. She actively catches up on climate change related issues in symposia and
bulletins from regional and national cable car associations as well as during regular
meetings with her colleagues in the region. However, being a person of action, MN
rather trusts on her personal observations and interpretations and explicitly sets
herself apart from “many other doomsayers” and refuses to accept the pessimistic
estimates she has heard of.
MN has observed an increase of extreme weather events, such as storms, in the past
years that resulted in revenue losses for her business. She considers these events to be
linked to a general trend. The changing snow conditions of the past winter season, in
contrast, to MN are linked to the natural variability of the local climate.
290
ANNEX
Nevertheless, the snow-poor winter season 2006/07 has been an eye opener for MN
with regard to the vulnerability of her business to local climate dynamics. Based on
her perception of the present problems, she initiated the development of a strategic
plan for the next 12 years.
The devastating winter season last year resulted in a major financial disaster for us. In this
situation we had to take a fundamental decision: What is necessary to make the place an
excellent destination in the short term and in the long run. We met with a consultant and
set up a plan that will be implemented within the next 10, 12 years as well as some further
visions beyond that.
Nach dem katastrophalen Winter voriges Jahr war es ein ziemliches finanzielles Desaster. Und da hat man eine Grundsatzentscheidung
treffen müssen: Was ist notwendig, dass das ein Super-Gebiet ist und kurzfristig und langfristig. Und da gemeinsam mit einem Berater
zusammengesetzt und so einen Plan aufgestellt, der so für die nächsten 10, 12 Jahre umgesetzt ist und dann noch ein paar Visionen
darüber hinaus.
The resulting strategic plan implies measures to protect her organization as well as the
overall local economy from negative economic impacts resulting from local climate
dynamics. An increase of the overall capacity for snowmaking is not only supposed to
reduce the climate sensitivity of the business – it additionally might allow to extend
the overall winter season into the spring months, thereby also responding to raised
tourism expectations. MN’s second strategic approach is to reduce the dependency on
winter business through establishing a summer business of the cable car operator.
MN’s long-term vision to construct an all-season indoor skiing hall adds to the latter
strategy.
MN knows that she depends on other stakeholders to implement both strategic
approaches: A summer business of the cable car will be only economically feasible
when other local businesses involve into further summer products. This is impeded
by a limited willingness of local businesses to engage in cooperative activities. In
general each of MN’s planned investment strongly depends on federal subsidies. So
far MN perceives a good willingness of the federal administration to support her
business, based on the strong economical dependency of the local economy on the
cable car business.
CLIMATE CHANGE
291
Table A.15: Planned and implemented response measures [MN]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Climate variab- Establishing summer operation of cable
ility, co-incentive: car and summer-tourism attractions on
increase revenue the mountain
EXP
Planned
Climate variability, co-incentive: Construction of an indoor ski hall
increase revenue
PRO
Idea
Climate variability, co-incentive: Increasing the snowmaking capacities
increase revenue
PRO
Planned
none
292
ANNEX
Table A.16: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [MN]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
•
Prioritizing present experiences of good snow
conditions in winter over prospective knowledge about climate change lowers perceived
threat of climate change
Access to financial resources (subsidies)
•
Access to external information sources (expert
knowledge on climate variability and climate •
change)
Reluctance to cooperation among local businesses
Discontinuity of management due to changes
in leadership
Dependency on federal support
Dependency on local business cooperations
conditions
impacts of extreme weather events in winter
revealed the detrimental consequences of the
economic sensitivity to a change in local
climatic conditions
Increase revenues by extending the winter
season as an additional incentive to increase
snowmaking capacity
Commitment building
•
•
Strategic, long-term planning horizon due to
the perceived responsibility for the overall
local economy
Manager type: strategic thinker
•
•
•
•
CLIMATE CHANGE
293
C a s e [ RC ]
Organization
RC’s family hotel has been established early in the 20 th century and handed from
parents to children ever since. For more than three decades no bigger investments
have been carried out. In 2008, the comfort class hotel has a guest capacity of 70
beds and 150 seats. In the winter season the family additionally operates a ski hut
next to the slope. In total seven persons, mostly family members, are working in the
business, assisted by additional five employees in winter season. The winter / summer
income ratio is estimated to be 60/40.
Manager
Being the first born in his generation, RC is supposed to take over the business in a
few years. So far he is the junior manager. However, he is involved in major decisions
in the business, still the ultimate decision-making authority is with his father. RC has
obtained his professional training as a restaurant specialist in a higher vocational
school in the region. Except of 1.5 years in which he, among other occupations, has
been working in an Austrian luxury hotel, he has been living his whole life in the
destination and working in the family business.
Recurring snow-poor winter seasons are among the biggest concerns of RC. Due to
the strong economic dependency on the winter business two or three winter seasons
with poor revenues in a row would put his business at existential risk. RC’s experience
tells him that a business in his destination has to build up financial reserves in order
to be able to compensate for losses of winter revenues every 3 or 4 years in average, a
requirement his business already is struggling with.
The financial buffer capacity of RC’s business is low, business planning is mainly
carried out on a year to year basis with a planning horizon of a maximum of three
years. For RC the phenomenon of climate change implies a persistent change of local
climatic patterns (“no more winter”). He perceives it as a future threat that lies
beyond the planning horizon of his management activities. Hence, it does not matter
whether climate change will occur in “20, 50, 70, 100 years”.
294
ANNEX
A different, but also severe impact, coming along with the general dependency of the
destination on winter tourism is an ongoing migration of the local population due to
a lack of jobs, particularly in summer. This in turn reduces the availability of
potential employees for RC. Hence demographic change is a second important
incentive for RC to increase his summer business.
Being young and about to take over the business, RC feels highly motivated to
introduce innovations to the business. In this regard he also feels inspired by his
experience from working in a luxury hotel. He is aware of new business opportunities
for the summer season by which he might reduce the strong dependency on the
winter business. However, as the resources do not allow for much more than
promoting local summer tourism, for RC there is no much left to do except simply
take things as they come.
When you look at the statistics and find an average temperature increase in the last 50 years
of 2 degrees – for us that will probably...It is possible that it appears, but our generation
probably will not be affected anymore. I would estimate that it might become relevant for
our descendants, not before 50, 70, 100 years – but for us personally I don’t expect really
big changes. Sure, it could be that it’ll be successively warmer every 5, 10 years, but... It
might be that the weather will really be like that in 20 years there won’t be much winter or
much snow left, but... We’ll see, in this regard we simply take things as they come. There’s
nothing else we can do.
Wenn Du Dir anschaust wie die Statistiken sind und dass es die letzten 50 Jahre in Durchschnitt 2 Grad wärmer geworden ist – das wird
uns wahrscheinlich...Es ist möglich, dass das kommt, aber unsere Generation wird das wahrscheinlich nicht mehr betreffen. Also ich
schätze einmal, dass das erst in 50, 70, 100 Jahren vielleicht einmal relevant wird für unsere Nachkommen aber ich glaube für uns
persönlich wird sich noch nicht recht viel ändern. Sicher, es kann sein, dass es pro 5, 10 Jahr um ein Stückchen wärmer wird aber...Mag
sein, dass dann wirklich das Wetter so wird dass es in 20 Jahren wirklich nicht mehr viel Winter oder viel Schnee gibt, aber.... Wird man
sehen, da lassen wir alles auf uns zukommen. Kannst ja nichts anderes machen.
Table A.17: Planned and implemented response measures [RC]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
General local
economic develMarketing for summer-tourism product
opment, climate
change (winter)
EXP
In process
EXP
Implemented
EXP
Idea
General local
Amplifying range of tourism products
economic devel- (summer, winter) through regional
opment,
cooperation
Increase revenue
Developing a network of local mountain
biking tracks
CLIMATE CHANGE
295
Table A.18: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [RC]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
conditions
Local demographic change as a secondary
impact of the economic dependency on
winter tourism increases personally perceived
urgency to reduce climate sensitivity
Local climate prospect based on linear trend
extrapolation of past climate statistics and
reveal no urgent threat of climate change
within the next few decades
Commitment building
•
Manager type: personal interest in innovations
•
Short-term planning horizon due to limited
investment capacity
•
Limited financial resources for investments
and innovations
Dependency on the family decision hierarchy
•
Access to personal experiences on potential
innovations (from working in luxury hotel
inspire innovations)
•
296
ANNEX
Case [TK]
Organization
TK’s standard class hotel has been established in the first half of the 20 th century.
Incremental steps to raise the quality of the business have been undertaken in the last
two decades. Today the family business additionally includes holiday flats and
provides beds for totally 60 guests. In total six persons are working in the business.
The income ratio winter / summer season of the hotel business is in balance (50/50).
Manager
TK received his professional training in a higher vocational school for tourism. In the
1980s, subsequent to his training, TK took over the business from his parents
involuntarily. TK is actively involved in local politics of his municipality.
TK is aware that tourists expect snow reliable ski resorts, an expectation that within
the altitude range of his destination he considers to be in general hard to fulfill. Due
to the low altitude of the destination there is no doubt for TK that in the future
climate change will result in a further decrease of the local snow reliability, eventually
leading to snow-free winter seasons.
In this respect he trusts in climate research. TK is well informed about the latest
research, but has also learned about the volatility of scientific findings. TK hopes that
scientists have overestimated the impacts of climate change – current projections of
climate models would indeed suggest a weakening of climate change for the next ten
years. TK’s recent experiences of winter seasons with good snow conditions support
the notion that climate change might not be such an urgent threat to local tourism.
As regards his general business planning, TK’s attention is directed towards current
challenges, like increasing energy prices and constantly changing tourism trends that
he perceives as more urgent and are ranked higher in his priority list. In general TK
does not feel capable to carry out bigger investments as most of his income goes back
into the maintenance of the status quo.
The turnover is simply too small that one could decide to – ‘boom’ – make a huge
reconstruction and...At least one does not have the heart to do so, let’s put it this way.
Da ist einfach der Umsatz zu gering, dass man sagt man macht jetzt – ‚Bumm‘ – einen riesen Umbau und dann...Zumindest traut man
sich nicht, sagen wir mal so.
CLIMATE CHANGE
297
TK does currently not feel motivated to personally invest into climate response
measures and has not developed any ideas in this regard so far. Rather he is confident
that the general awareness about climate change will encourage investments into
research in order to improve the technology of artificial snowmaking.
In general TK does not think that the time has already come for substantial responses
to climate change. For him the idea of his colleagues at the local cable car operator, to
build an all-season ski hall as a potential climate response measure, might be kept in
mind, but currently does not seem to be realistic. In terms of an own strategy to cope
with the issue of climate change, for him a ‘wait and see’ strategy maybe does not
seems to be the most responsible, but still the most reasonable business strategy.
Table A.19: Planned and implemented response measures [TK]
Motivation
Response Measure
none
none
Response Type
Status of
298
ANNEX
Table A.20: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [TK]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
Personal awareness of ongoing global climate
change due to detailed knowledge about
climate research
Personal awareness of the economic risk of a
warming trend due to the destination’s low
altitude
•
•
Personal experience of recurring snow-rich
winters soften the perceived urgency of longterm climate change
Knowledge about uncertainty in climate
research enforces hopes that the local impacts
of climate change will not be so severe as
currently expected
Commitment building
•
•
•
Hope in others to take the responsibility to
respond to climate change (technology,
science, politics)
Manager type: lack of courage to take risks
Other planning incentives more manifest
than climatic issues (changing tourism trends,
increasing energy prices)
•
Limited financial resources for investments
and innovations
CLIMATE CHANGE
299
Case [XU]
Organization
XU’s upper standard boarding house has been established by her parents in the 1970s
and has been incrementally improved since then. It provides rooms and holiday flats
for 20 guests and is run by XU and her husband, supported by her parents. The
winter / summer income ratio adds up to 65/35. In addition, the business includes
the leasing of a ski lodge and a mountain restaurant.
Manager
XU who grew up in the destination, studied and worked many years as an architect
outside of the region. She returned a few years ago with her children to take the
business over from her parents. However, the main income source of XU and her
husband is still their occupation as architects.
XU and her husband are actively searching for new opportunities to extend their
summer and winter business and to design new accommodation facilities (“We
simply like to build houses!”). Based on a high tourism demand in the last winter
seasons, they have made plans to expand their winter business by building additional
ski lodges in the next years. Both lobby for plans of the local cable car operator to
establish a summer business as it would allow them to intensify their summer
business. XU suggests that their good financial situation and knowledge about
funding schemes would make investments quite easy for them – in contrast to other
local tourism businesses. Yet, XU’s time horizon for business planning is restricted to
less than ten years by her desire to withdraw from her activities in the local tourism
businesses in order to increase her involvement in her architect’s office.
Climate change is not an issue that XU is bothering with. However, XU is aware
about the vulnerability of the destination to variable local climatic conditions and to
an increase in mean temperatures. In her opinion the local tourism economy would
survive three recurring warm winter seasons, at most. XU assumes that due to the
destination’s low altitude a mean temperature increase of 1°C would bring an end to
the local winter tourism.
300
ANNEX
So far, XU’s experiences of good local snow conditions in recent winter seasons
support her belief that climate change is no urgent threat to her business. In addition
the current plans of the local cable car operator to extent its winter business would
not make sense to XU if climate change would pose an immediate threat to the local
tourism business.
I don’t think that the local climate will change that fast that we would currently need
whatever alternative, since there already exist plans to expand the ski resort. I think, nobody
would discuss such plans if one would currently think that after the next ten years there
won’t be any snow. Or after the next ten years there won’t be any winter business.
Ich glaube nicht, dass das [der lokale Klimawandel] so schnell geht, dass wir da jetzt Weißgott welche Alternativen brauchen, weil es ist ja
durchaus auch die Erweiterung des Skigebietes...geplant. Ich meine...das würde ja kein Mensch diskutieren wenn man jetzt denkt, in den
nächsten 10 Jahren hat es keinen Schnee mehr. Oder in 10 Jahren gibt es keinen Winterbetrieb mehr.
In sum, XU does not consider a change in the local climatic patterns to be an issue to
deal within the next five to ten years time horizon that she plans to stay in business.
Being a person of action, XU is sure she would find a way to respond to a climate
crisis, just in case climate would change faster as she expected.
Table A.21: Planned and implemented response measures [XU]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Intensifying summer business in cable car
Increase revenue and mountain gastronomy through infrastructure investments
none
EXP
Planned
CLIMATE CHANGE
301
Table A.22: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [XU]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
Personal awareness of the economic risk of a
warming trend due to the destination’s low
altitude
•
•
•
Current plans of the local cable car operator
to extend its winter business taken as evidence against climate change as an urgent
threat to the business
Low perceived economic vulnerability of own
business to variable climatic conditions due to
financial and intellectual capacities to find
adequate responses
Commitment building
•
Manager type: active search for innovations
and business opportunities (entrepreneurial
spirit)
•
Access to financial resources (personal
resources, external sources: subsidies, credits)
•
Short-term planning horizon due to discontinuance of business
302
ANNEX
Destination B
Case [DQ]
Organization
The organization, responsible for the local destination management, is managed in
cooperation with 2 second neighbor community. The different tasks executed by 12
employees that are assigned to distinct formal divisions. The objective of the
destination management is to advise the tourism businesses, set up destination wide
tourism offers and provide infrastructure for tourists’ activities and advertize them.
Thereby the organization has a big influence on the overall character of the local
tourism and its products. The organization closely cooperates with the local cable car
operator.
Manager
DQ is involved in the management of the organization. She has been living in the
community and working for its destination management less than two years ago. DQ
has an university degree in the management field and started to work in a marketing
division in the regional diary industry. DQ gained practical experiences in the
tourism industry through various summer jobs.
In her organization DQ has access to a range of external information sources and
expert knowledge about climate change such as symposia and bulletins from national
and international tourism associations. DQ assumes that climate change increases the
risk of snow-free winter seasons. Due to the high economic dependency on winter
tourism, in DQ’s point of view climate change therefore poses an existential threat for
the local tourism sector. Even though her destination, so far, has been characterized
by high snow reliability, the discourse on climate change already reduced the general
confidence of tourists in the winter-sport offers of her destination. DQ has already
experienced this indirect impact of climate change through reduced booking
numbers despite of good snow conditions.
As the destination invests large sums into its snowmaking infrastructure, DQ is very
certain that in the short term and in the long term her destination will be able to
CLIMATE CHANGE
303
offer good conditions for downhill skiing. Yet, DQ is aware that other winter
products can not be maintained by artificial snowmaking. Her organization is
involved in preparing a cross country ski run in higher altitudes thus less exposed to a
warming trend and involving the option to make artificial snow. In addition, DQ
considers it important to develop alternative winter products to offer to keep guests
busy in a snow poor periods.
DQ describes the planning activities in the local tourism sector as well as in her
organization as being driven by present incentives and short-term feasibility.
It is always like that: when we have a good winter, there’s no need to worry about climate
change, when we have a bad winter then things get dramatic and people get to meet up.
Actually it’s always some sort of playing catch-up instead of tackling things in advance.
Es ist immer so: kommt ein guter Winter, braucht man sich über das [Klimawandel] nicht Gedanken machen, kommt ein schlechter
Winter, dann wird’s dramatisch und dann setzt man sich zusammen. Es ist eigentlich eher immer ein hinterher hinken anstatt sich schon
im Vorhinein wirklich damit auseinanderzusetzen.
Despite the urgency for action that DQ perceives with regard to climate change, she
considers her personal influence within her organization to be limited. Not only is
she integrated within a decision hierarchy within her organization; she further refers
to the limited room for maneuver of her organization in terms of responses to climate
change in comparison with the cable car operator. The inertia of the local population
that has to agree upon comprehensive transformations of the local tourism is a
further restraint for making big and quick leaps. DQ suspects that this planning
behavior eventually might result in competitive disadvantages for her destination.
Table A.23: Planned and implemented response measures [DQ]
Motivation
Response Measure
Status of
Response Type
implementatio
(cf. table A.6: 276)
n
Climate change
(winter)
Development of snow-independent
winter tourism products
CRI
Idea
Climate change
(winter)
Development of cross-country ski runs in
higher altitudes with snowmaking facilities
PRO
Planned
none
304
ANNEX
Table A.24: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [DQ]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
Attributing personal experiences of snow poor
winter seasons to a general trend of increasing
likelihood of snow poor winter seasons
High perceived urgency to respond to climate
change
Personal experience of indirect negative
economic impacts of warm winter seasons
(anticipatory change of tourists’ booking
behavior) reveal the detrimental consequences
of the economic sensitivity to a change in
local climatic conditions
Commitment building
•
Short-term planning horizon due to shortterm and crises-induced planning behavior of
the organization
Access to external information sources (expert •
knowledge on climate variability and climate
change)
•
Reluctance of the local population to comprehensive transformations
Dependency on the organization’s planning
logic and planning horizons
Dependency on local business cooperations:
limited individual response options
•
•
CLIMATE CHANGE
305
Case [GQ]
Organization
The bed and breakfast place was established close to the municipality center on the
base of the valley in the beginning of the 1970s and has been incrementally renovated
ever since. In the meantime, three holiday flats have been constructed and the total
business accommodates 14 guests. The business has been certified a medium quality
level. It is managed by GQ without additional staff. The income ratio winter /
summer is around 2:1.
Manager
GQ grew up outside the destination. Her parents had been active in the tourism
accommodation businesses. After school she had been working in several positions in
the tourism sector when she opened her bed and breakfast business in the
destination. Besides managing her business GQ is actively involved for many years
within the local association of small boarding houses as well as in the local tourism
association
On a global scale GQ knows that changes such as the melting of glaciers and in the
north pole region are already taking place. Also the statistics are unambiguous in
terms that climate change is a fact. GQ finds it difficult to make any prospects about
local climate change. She considers climate change a slow transformation process that
might become relevant for the local tourism sector in about 50 years.
Things will change, but I don’t think that changes will occur abruptly. Slowly we will get
there, perhaps in 50 years I reckon. I don’t think that the collapse will appear so fast. In the
meantime there will be some new development, cooling ski slopes from beneath...I assume
that technology will be in place.
Es wird sich schon etwas ändern, aber ich glaube nicht, dass das jetzt schlagartig kommt. Das geht halt so langsam dahin, vielleicht in 50
Jahren schätze ich. Also so schnell glaube ich nicht, dass der Einbruch kommt. Inzwischen gibt es dann eine neue Erfindung, dass die die
Skipisten von unten kühlen... Ich glaube, dass die Technik da auch nicht schläft.
Impacts of the recent climate extreme events, such as the warm winter 2006/07 for
GQ are not an issue to worry about at present – from her perspective the general
snow conditions are fine and so is the snowmaking infrastructure. Looking at a
second winter offer, cross-country skiing, she assumes the slopes to be located high
enough in order not to be affected by warm winters. A second aspect of the low
306
ANNEX
sensitivity to the local climatic conditions for GQ is the limited number of Alpine
winter tourism destinations in relation to the international demand. She considers
this to be particular true with regard to the Eastern European market even though it
might turn over within the next ten years. Furthermore, in the course of a changing
climate, GQ expects an increasing popularity of her destination in the summer
season.
Hence GQ currently does not perceive need for further action, but rather considers
the current situation as economically beneficial:
As we had these poor snow conditions that one winter people have assumed: Oh well, the
next winter will be worse... But in the contrary the winter has even been better, as many did
make a break for one year [in going skiing] because of the snow-poor winter and then said:
»Well, let’s go skiing now«. And the others came home and stated: »Oh, skiing was well,
despite of poor snow conditions«. Actually it has been economically beneficial...
Und man hat dort angenommen, wo der eine Winter so schneearm war...: Uh, der nächste Winter wird schlecht werden... Und im
Gegenteil, jetzt der vergangene Winter war noch besser, weil viele aufgrund des einen Winters wo wenig Schnee war, haben sie...ein Jahr
pausiert und haben dann gesagt: »So, jetzt gehen wir wieder Skifahren«. Und die anderen sind heimgekommen und haben gesagt: »Oh da
war es, trotz das wenig Schnee war, gut zum fahren«. Es hat eigentlich ein Plus gebracht...
Nevertheless, through seminars offered by the local tourism associations and accurate
study of the business sections of several newspapers, GQ has always been keeping
herself up-to-date on ongoing developments and trends in the tourism business. On
this basis she has developed ideas to invest in improvement of her tourism offers (e.g.
sauna, solarium) in order to respond to changing requests of guests. Yet, her general
motivation for substantial investments is low due to the short time until her
retirement and the reluctance of her children to continue the business.
Table A.25: Planned and implemented response measures [GQ]
Motivation
Response Measure
none
none
Response Type
Status of
CLIMATE CHANGE
307
Table A.26: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [GQ]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
change
•
•
•
•
•
Personal reliance upon the existing snowmaking capacities lower the perceived
climatic conditions
Personal awareness of the limited alternatives
for tourists lower the perceived economic
Low perceived economic vulnerability of the
destination to climate change due to new
opportunities in the summer tourism business
Other planning incentives more manifest
than climatic issues (changing tourism trends,
international competition)
Commitment building
•
Manager type: general interest in innovations •
•
•
knowledge on developments and trends in
the tourism business)
Short-term planning horizon due to soon
retirement and absence of family succession
Belief in technological solution to respond to
climate change in the future
308
ANNEX
Case [HF]
Organization
HF’s family business has been established in the late 1980s as an à-la-carte restaurant
by HF’s parents-in-law. In the end of the 2000s decade the gastronomy business has
been extended by a newly built first class hotel. Through this restructuring process
the revenue of the summer business could be raised, bringing the company that
previously had a strong focus on the winter business close to its target of becoming
an all-season-business.
Manager
HF entered the gastronomy business of his parents-in-law as service assistant. Trained
and working as a metal worker, HF built up expertise on the tourism business in
vocational seminars and took the exams that allowed him to take over the business
together with his wife some 20 years ago. HF is president of the the local tourism
association and is actively involved in the management of a local network on the local
production of regenerative energy.
They are talking about a warming of +4 or +5°C – we had -20! Well, we still have snow fall.
...wenn es da heißt 4° oder 5° Erwärmung – wir haben -20° gehabt. Also schneien tut’s immer noch.
Besides his awareness of melting permafrost in higher altitudes, HF has found no
evidence about changes in the local winter climate. There is still snow in the winter
season. In addition, HF has learned from older people that snow-poor winter seasons
are nothing new, as they had already occurred in earlier decades. Moreover, the
present infrastructure for snowmaking allows coping with such events, so HF feels
quite relaxed about possible changes in the local climate and sees no reason to
implement further climate response measures.
In contrast to the winter season, HF found clear evidence about a temperature
increase in summer – both in his Alpine community and the Mediterranean region.
With regard to the summer season he considers climate change a rather unambiguous
phenomenon.
CLIMATE CHANGE
309
We have one of the most beautiful valleys, for me this is almost little South Tyrol. And with
climate change we will arrive there anyway. If you observe that a bit, there certainly comes
considerable potential with it. You have to look at Spain, with 40, 50°C – for us that is an
opportunity. And even here it is currently already hot, extraordinary hot.
...wir haben eines der schönsten Täler...das ist Klein-Südtirol schon für mich fast. Und mit der Klimaerwärmung kommen wir eh dahin...
wenn man das schon ein bisschen anschaut dann ist im Sommer sicher einiges Potenzial drin. Man muss mal in Spanien schauen, wie es
ist da bei 40, 50° – da ist für uns eine Chance gegeben. Und es ist ja jetzt bei uns schon heiß, außergewöhnlich heiß.
In this respect he sees climate change as a big opportunity to attract tourists to enjoy
holidays in a well tempered Alpine climate. Though, increasing revenues of summer
tourism through developing cultural events and a strong marketing of summer
tourism products is not a strategy for HF to respond to climate change, but simply
for economic growth. In realizing this strategy, HF draws on the network of local
innovators, who are using their individual and shared resources to explore new
opportunities for the local tourism business.
Table A.27: Planned and implemented response measures [HF]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
none
Increase revenue Construction of an all-season-hotel
EXP
Implemented
Increase revenue
Development of mountain bike infrastructure (summer tourism)
EXP
Implemented
Increase revenue
Development of cultural tourism
products
EXP
In process
Increase revenue
Development of summer-tourism
products
EXP
In process
EXP
Implemented
Increase revenue Marketing for summer-tourism product
310
ANNEX
Table A.28: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [HF]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
Awareness of business opportunity: Alpine
summer tourism in a changing climate
•
•
Commitment building
•
and business opportunities
•
Access to network resources: being part of a
network of joint interest for innovations on
the local tourism
Relating personal experiences of varying
climatic conditions among the winter seasons
to the phenomenon of long-term climate
change leads to an ambiguous construct
about winter climate change and enforces a
skeptical attitude towards it
climatic conditions
CLIMATE CHANGE
311
Case [HU]
Organization
HU is managing a hotel-restaurant which was established in the 1970s as a ski hut
close to the ski slope. The business has been continuously expanded ever since. Until
2008, the hotel section offered 30 beds, about 70% of the yearly revenue had been
generated in the winter season. In 2008 the business underwent a radical change
when a new 4 stars wooden spa-hotel was build next-door. The new hotel provides
additional 70 beds and 350 restaurant seats, in total. The size of the staff increased
from in total 16 to 20. With the new business the income ratio winter/summer is
supposed to adjust to 60/40.
Manager
HU, the hotel director has been managing the business since its beginnings, for more
than 30 years (2008). HU, who received training as carpenter, built up his knowledge
on the tourism sector by continuously attending seminars next to his business. His
prior work experiences involves the management of an Alpine refuge for more than
10 years. Next to his core business, HU is actively involved in the organic food sector,
where he established a regional marketing label for organic tourism businesses. He is
further member of the federal economic chamber. Currently HU is in the process of
handing over the business to his son.
HU defines climate change explicitly as one of two strategic issues that drive his
strategic business planning. Repeated losses of revenue during snow-poor winter
seasons have revealed the vulnerability of his business to him in terms of the dynamic
local climatic conditions.
...we already have experienced the problem that we have been snow-free every third year.
And that is a dreadful situation for our business – you amortize for two years and in the
third year you are again raising the loan for what you have been amortizing, precisely
because the snow conditions do not allow for more.
...wir haben ja jetzt schon die Probleme gehabt, dass wir jedes dritte Jahr ohne Schnee waren. Und das ist für den Betrieb fürchterlich,
zwei Jahre tilgt man und das dritte. Jahr stockt man den Kredit wieder um das, was man getilgt hat auf, weil eben die Schneeverhältnisse
nicht so sind.
Nevertheless, HU is skeptical whether climate change is really a man-made
phenomenon – his knowledge about previous long-term climatic fluctuations and
312
ANNEX
past glacier retreats rather points in a different direction. Hence, he assumes that the
recent development of climatic conditions could also reverse. Still, from his
perspective as a strategic planner and entrepreneur, he has to cope with the risk and
prefers to get on the save side. HU’s experience tells him that the hotel sector is less
sensitive to changing snow conditions and less dependent on the winter seasons, as
the gastronomy sector is. Through his long-years active involvement in the organic
lifestyle sector HU knows about the opportunities of this market segment for
tourism. He decides to invest a substantial amount of money in order to establish an
upper class spa hotel as a strategic response to the risk of climate change he had
identified earlier. His personal experiences and social networks in the organic lifestyle
sector facilitate the implementation of his business plan. The fact that his son, to
which HU is currently handing over the business, supports this business strategy, has
been a precondition to HU to carry out this major investment. In addition the
division of responsibility gives the business access to public subsidies for start-up
entrepreneurs.
Table A.29: Planned and implemented response measures [HU]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Climate change
(winter), co-incentive: tourism
trend
Construction of an eco-wellness-hotel
none
EXP
Implemented
CLIMATE CHANGE
313
Table A.30: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [HU]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
•
Attributing personal experiences of snow poor •
winter seasons to a general trend of increasing
frequency of snow poor winter seasons
Awareness about climate-robust business
opportunity
Commitment building
•
•
Inter-generational planning horizon through
family succession of the business
and business opportunities, readiness to take
risk, strategic thinker (climate change defined
as strategic issue)
•
•
Access to financial resources (subsidies)
Access to network resources: drawing in
interest network to implement response
option
Skepticism towards the anthropogenic causation of climate change increase skepicism
towards the accuracy of corresponding
scientific prospects and the seriousness of the
economic threats of climate change
314
ANNEX
Case [IY]
Organization
The first class hotel that IY manages together with his brother has been established as
tourism business in the 1950s as a boarding house by their parents at the foot of the
mountain range. IY’s father was among those that established the local winter
tourism business. Ever since his accommodation business has been successively
expanded and renovated. Since the 1980s IY and his brother are in charge of the
hotel management. In 2008 the hotel is among the leading and biggest hotel
businesses in place. The income ratio winter / summer season of the hotel business is
in balance (50/50). In addition to the accommodation sector the business also
involves a ski school.
Manager
IY is managing the business for 20 years as one of two executive directors. He
received his formal training in a distinguished school of hotel management. After
years of practical experiences in luxury hotels in Austria and abroad, he returned to
work in the family hotel.
For IY taking as well as handling risks and exploring the unknown is an integral part
of his entrepreneurial family history. To IY dealing with uncertainty and surprise are a
natural constituent of successfully managing a business and hoping for the best an
integral characteristics of his strategic approach.
It is impossible to strategically extrapolate a certain development steadily for ten or 15 years.
There are definitely risks. In former times that might have been some warfare. Nowadays it
might as well be a serious energy crisis or a virus where you are not allowed to kiss or shake
hands any more. What do you do then: stay at home. I just say, these are risks that always
might appear overnight. Globally. But in any case we have lived very successfully with all
those risks and anyway hope is important at all times. Things always work out differently to
how you expected. It is throughout the unanticipated that appears.
Strategisch fort schreiben kann man doch eine Entwicklung nicht. Also nicht für 10, 15 Jahre. Also das man etwas stabil fort schreibt. ...
Auf jeden Fall sind Risiken da. Früher war es vielleicht irgendein Krieg...aber jetzt ist es...vielleicht doch irgendeine empfindlichere
Energiekrise oder...ein Virus wo man sich nicht mehr küssen darf und keine Hand mehr schütteln darf. Wo bleibt man dann: zu hause.
Ich sag nur, das sind...Risiken die immer auftauchen können, von heute auf morgen. Global. Aber auf jeden Fall haben wir sehr
erfolgreich damit gelebt, mit den ganzen Risiken...und hoffen muss man sowieso immer... Und es kommt ja immer, was man nie gedacht
hat. ## Es kommt immer das unvorhergesehene
CLIMATE CHANGE
315
Climate change is among the contingencies, IY feels he has to cope with. Yet, the
interannual variations of the climatic patterns between the winter seasons leave IY
with an ambiguous picture with regard to a general climatic trend. In contrast to the
winter seasons IY has personally perceived a continuous rise in summer temperatures
– both in his Alpine community and the Mediterranean region. In the end he has
accepted climate change as a basis for investment decisions in his business as well as
the cable car company, where he has a share in. Within his involvement at the local
cable car company IY has supported major investments decisions to increase the
snowmaking capacity as well as to realize further developments of slopes solely on
north-oriented and shaded hillsides as a response to climate change. Due to these
measures IY is confident with regard to local winter sport and lobbies for the
expansion of the cable car infrastructure close to his hotel.
With regard to his hotel, IY considers his business as being consolidated without
need for bigger innovations in his core business. Still, being skilled to take advantage
of business opportunities IY has detected the potential that climate change implies
for the improvement of his summer business. Based on his experiences with a
warming summer climate, he took the opportunity to introduce solar heat as energy
source for heating his swimming pools. IY is pleased with his guests possibilities for
sunbathing that had not been possible some decades earlier and hopes for new
summer guests with increasing number of heat waves in the Mediterranean.
Table A.31: Planned and implemented response measures [IY]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
climate change
(winter)
Slope development solely on north-oriented, shaded hillsides
PRO
implemented
climate change
(winter)
Increasing the snowmaking capacities
PRO
implemented
climate change
(summer)
Amplifying the wellness offers for
summer tourism (swimming pools,
sunbathing)
EXP
implemented
climate change
(summer)
Shifting the energy source for heating the
swimming pools
EXP
implemented
EXP
implemented
Increase revenue Marketing of summer-tourism products
316
ANNEX
Motivation
Weather independence,
increasing
revenue
Response Type
Status of
Response Measure
Increasing the indoor gastronomy capacity
PRO
In process
Table A.32: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [IY]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
•
Awareness of business opportunity: Alpine
summer tourism in a changing climate
•
•
•
Relating personal experiences of varying
climatic conditions among the winter seasons
to the phenomenon of long-term climate
change leads to an ambiguous construct
about winter climate change
climatic conditions
Climate change one planning incentive
among other contingencies
Commitment building
•
Manager type: making investment decisions
in spite of risk and uncertainty, active search
for innovations and business opportunities
•
•
•
Access to network resources: possibility to
influence response decisions of cable car operator
Limited planning horizon due to unpredictability of complex business environment’s
dynamics
Consolidated business phase: no motivation
for bigger innovations
CLIMATE CHANGE
317
Case [ME]
Organization
The local cable car company has been established as a private limited company in the
end of the 1950s. It is the second biggest local company with regard to its revenue
and employs 80 persons. Through a partnership with the cable car operator of an
adjacent ski resort, it provides its passengers access to overall 200km of ski slopes.
The company operates cable cars and ski lifts between 800m and 1.900m altitude.
Since 2001 the company runs a summer business for mountain bikers in
collaboration with other local businesses. The winter / summer income ratio is
around 16:1 (2007/08). The company’s partner businesses in the adjacent ski resort
are the biggest shareholders accounting for more than 80% of the shares. The
remaining shares belong to two individuals that are also involved in the management
of the company.
Manager
ME is an executive employee within the local cable car company. He received a
formal training in tourism management, and further broadened his skills through
additional training courses on the tourism business. After a short-term occupation
abroad, ME started to work for the local cable car operator in the 1990s. He is
actively involved in the local tourism association and in local politics.
ME is part of the network of innovators, who are dedicating their individual and
shared resources to explore new opportunities for the local tourism business.
Increasing revenues of summer tourism, thus reducing the economic dependency on
winter tourism, through tourism products as an infrastructure for mountain biking is
not a strategy to respond to climate change, but simply for economic growth.
The responsibility that his business has for the present and future generations of
people working in the local tourism sector is the central point of reference of ME’s
business planning. This implies that investment decisions have to take the general
uncertainty of future developments into account and should not involve shots in the
dark, but be rather targeted to pay off in a manageable time horizon.
318
ANNEX
You cannot simply invest at random and assume that it will pay off in, say 30 years. Who
can plan that long?
Man kann ja nicht ins blaue investieren und sagen, ja das finanziert sich, ich sage mal, in 30 Jahren. Wer kann so lange planen?
With regard to climatic issues, ME considers himself as a layperson. He trusts in the
expertise of climatologists and considers it important to carefully observe these issues.
From his participation in symposia and expert talks, ME has learned that there exist
clear proofs for a warming trend, but there is still uncertainty about how this trend is
connected to individual weather events as well as about the time horizon of climate
change.
At present, ME sees the warming trend to be an acute problem of permafrost-regions
in higher altitudes, but not of his destination. So far, ME considers the existing
snowmaking capacity of his company a sufficient and reasonable measure for
managing short-term crises of poor snow conditions, thus increasing the reliability of
business planning. But ME is also aware that this measure only works within a
limited temperature range. In line with his general acknowledgment of uncertainty
about future business conditions in the long run his also has to take the possibility to
abandon snow related offers into account.
It has always been a clause within our contracts with the landowners that their land will
have to be revegetated when it does not serve for skiing any more. That is how things have
always been. Let’s hope that this will never be the case, since as well our future generations
should certainly make their living with tourism, by being hosts.
Wir haben auch in unseren Verträgen mit den Grundbesitzern von jeher drinnen: falls es nicht mehr zum Skifahren geht muss das
rekultiviert und rückgebaut werden. Das ist einfach Usus...Wollen wir es hoffen, dass es nie der Fall sein soll, weil ja auch sicher unsere
zukünftigen Generationen mit dem Tourismus, mit dem Gastgebersein ihren Lebensunterhalt verdienen sollen.
Table A.33: Planned and implemented response measures [ME]
Motivation
Response Measure
Response Type
Status of
Planning reliability, co-benefit:
climate change
(winter)
Future uncertainty, co-benefit: Exit clauses in lease contracts with landclimate change holders
(winter)
PRO
Implemented
PRO
Implemented
CLIMATE CHANGE
Motivation
319
Response Type
Status of
Response Measure
Increase revenue
Amplifying range of tourism products
(summer) through regional cooperation
EXP
Implemented
Increase revenue
Development of cultural tourism
products
EXP
Implemented
EXP
Implemented
EXP
Implemented
Increase revenue Marketing for summer-tourism product
Increase revenue
Development of mountain bike infrastructure (summer tourism)
Table A.34: Enablers and inhibitors of responses to climate extremes and shift in climate means [ME]
Enablers
Inhibitors
Awareness raising
•
change due to detailed knowledge about
climate research
•
climatic conditions
Commitment building
•
•
•
Necessity to develop short-term and longterm strategies in terms of making responsible
investments
and business opportunities
•
•
•
Access to financial and human resources for
an active information management
Access to network resources: being part of a
network of joint interest for innovations on
the local tourism
knowledge on climate variability and change)
Limited planning horizon due to unpredictability of complex business environment’s
dynamics
320
ANNEX
A 2. Catalog of additional empirical material
Table A.35: Typology of deliberate response options considered by the managers (strategy: expand beyond the
affected business)
Response
strategy
Response Measure
Environmental incentive
Status
IP
Expand beyond the affected business
Relieve the burden from long-term detrimental climate impacts
Construction of an eco-wellness-hotel
Longer-term increase in temper- implemented HU
ature means (winter), co-incentive: tourism trend
Developing summer tourism
products (e.g. sports or adventure
school)
Strong economic dependency on planned
the winter business
IL
products
Longer-term increase in temper- in process
ature means (winter), co-incentive: tourism trend
IU
Developing wellness tourism
products
Longer-term increase in temper- idea
ature means(winter), take
advantage of tourism trend
JF
Establishing summer operation of
cable car and summer-tourism
attractions on the mountain
Climate variability (winter), coincentive: increase revenue
Marketing for summer tourism
product
General local economic develop- in process
ment, climate change (winter)
planned
MN
RC
Capitalize on long-term positive climate impacts
products
Increasing revenues, co-inimplemented HF
centive: Longer-term increase in
temperature means (summer:
locally and Mediterranean heat
waves)
Amplifying the wellness offers for Longer-term increase in temper- implemented IY
summer tourism (swimming pools, ature means summer)
sunbathing)
Shifting the energy source for
heating the swimming pools
Longer-term increase in temper- implemented IY
ature means (summer)
A 2. CATALOG OF ADDITIONAL EMPIRICAL MATERIAL
321
Table A.36: Typology of deliberate climate response options considered by the managers (strategy: protect
snow based winter tourism products)
Response
strategy
Response Measure
Status
IP
Protect snow based winter tourism products
Reduce the exposure towards negative climate impacts
Development of cross-country ski
runs in higher altitudes
Longer-term increase in temper- planned
ature means (winter)
DQ
Slope development solely on
north-oriented, shaded hillsides
Reduce the sensitivity towards negative climate impacts
Installing snowmaking facilities at
high-altitude cross-country ski
runs
Longer-term increase in temper- planned
DQ
Exit clauses in lease contracts with Future uncertainty, co-benefit: implemented ME
landholders
Longer-term increase in temperature means (winter)
Planning reliability, co-benefit: implemented ME
Longer-term increase in temperature means(winter)
Construction of an indoor ski hall
Climate variability (winter), co- idea
incentive: increase revenue
MN
Climate variability (winter), co- planned
incentive: increase revenue
MN
Table A.37: Typology of deliberate climate response options considered by the managers (strategy: crisis
management)
Crisis management
Response
strategy
Response Measure
Status
IP
Relieve the burden from short-term detrimental climate impacts
Development of snow-independent winter tourism products
Longer-term increase in temper- idea
ature means(winter)
DQ
Construction of a gymnasium as
weather independent tourism
product
Weather independence, co-inplanned
centive: Longer-term increase in
temperature means (winter)
IU
322
ANNEX
Table A.38: Typology of non-deliberate climate response options considered by the managers to open up new
sources of revenue
Measure
Status
IP
in process
HF
Development of mountain bike infrastructure
Implemented
HF
Marketing for summer-tourism product (bonus card for local activities)
implemented
HF
Marketing on summer-tourism products
implemented
IY
Amplifying range of summer-tourism products
implemented
ME
Development of mountain bike infrastructure
implemented
ME
Marketing on summer-tourism product
implemented
ME
Amplifying range of summer-tourism products
implemented
RC
idea
RC
planned
XU
implemented
HF
in process
HF
implemented
ME
Summer tourism products
Amplifying range of summer-tourism products (sport offers)
Developing a network of local mountain biking tracks
Intensifying summer business in cable car and mountain gastronomy
through infrastructure investments
All-season tourism products
Construction of an all-season-hotel
Development of cultural tourism products (culture and art trails)
Development of cultural tourism products
A 2. CATALOG OF ADDITIONAL EMPIRICAL MATERIAL
Figure A.8: Categorization of organizational characteristics associated with climate responses
323
324
ANNEX
A 3. Interview guides
A 3.1 Interview guide for business managers
Introduction
Background of the interview
•
I am working at the Boku University Vienna in a research project on strategic
challenges and business planning in Austrian tourism destinations
Ich arbeite an der Universität für Bodenkultur (Boku) in Wien an einem Forschungsprojekt zu strategischen Herausforderungen und
Unternehmensplanung in österreichischen Tourismusgemeinden.
•
The research projects aims at identifying strengths and existing obstacles of
business planning within tourism firms
Ziel des Forschungsprojektes ist es, Stärken und bestehende Hemmnisse unternehmerischer Planung in Tourismusunternehmen zu
identifizieren
•
In this context the local knowledge and the long-years experiences of local actors
are of particular importance
•
Dabei kommt dem lokalen Wissen und den langjährigen Erfahrungen der Menschen vor Ort eine große Bedeutung zu.
Fo r m a l i a
•
agreement with audio recording
•
guarantee of anonymity and confidentially
•
agreement on approximated interview time
Personal experience and education of the managers
Q-1 For how long have you been involved within this business? How come that you
got involved here?
Wie lange sind Sie schon in diesem Unternehmen tätig, wie kam es dazu, dass Sie sich hier einbringen?
Q-2 May I ask you, how you have been trained in your business field?
Darf ich Sie fragen, wie Sie Ihr unternehmerisches Handwerk gelernt haben?
A 3.1 INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR BUSINESS MANAGERS
325
Business planning
Business challenges, business environment, constraints of
organizational responses
Past
Q-3 Tell me a little about the history of your firm: Which transformations, possibly
trend-setting decisions have shaped the development of your business within
the last 15 years? What have been the reasons for this proceeding?
Erzählen Sie mir ein wenig von der Geschichte Ihres Unternehmens: Durch welche Veränderungen, möglicherweise richtungsweisenden
Entscheidungen, wurde die Entwicklung Ihres Unternehmens in den vergangenen 15 Jahren geprägt – aus welchen Gründen sind Sie so
vorgegangen?
Q-4 Which ideas with regard to the development of your business could you not
implement so far and why couldn‘t you implement these ideas so far?
Welche Ideen für die Entwicklung Ihres Unternehmens konnten Sie bislang noch nicht umsetzen und warum konnten Sie diese Ideen
bislang noch nicht umsetzen?
Present
Q-5 With what managerial questions do you currently deal with?
Mit welchen betrieblichen Fragen setzen Sie sich momentan auseinander?
Future
Q-6 Please tell me about your objectives that you have set up for your business in
the future as well as about projects, i.e. potential business transformations that
you plan to approach in the future or would like to approach in the future.
Erzählen Sie mir bitte von Zielen, die Sie sich für Ihr Unternehmen für die Zukunft gesetzt haben und Projekten, also mglw. betriebliche
Veränderungen, die Sie in Zukunft angehen wollen oder gerne angehen würden.
Q-7 For what reasons would you like to proceed in that way – which obstacles
could impede the implementation?
Aus welchen Gründen wollen Sie so vorgehen – was könnte die Umsetzung erschweren?
Q-8 Do you expect particular problems in the future or transformations of the
general conditions that your business will have to face in the future and how do
you plan to deal with it?
Erwarten Sie für die Zukunft bestimmte Probleme oder Änderungen von Rahmenbedingungen, denen sich Ihr Betrieb wird stellen müssen
und wie wollen Sie damit umgehen?
326
ANNEX
Climate change – in case the subject has not been touched so far
Q-9 What do you think how climate change that has been discussed a lot recently,
influences the economical success of your business?
Was denken Sie inwieweit der in letzter Zeit viel diskutierte Klimawandel Ihren Unternehmenserfolg beeinflusst?
Q-10 To what extent is the issue of climate change being discussed within the
destination? On which occasions, by whom?
Inwieweit wird in der Gemeinde über das Thema Klimawandel diskutiert? Welche Anlässe? Beteiligte Akteure?
Q-11 To what extent do you think that the issue of climate change as influenced the
decision processes within your destination?
Inwieweit denken Sie, dass der Aspekt des Klimawandels die Entscheidungsprozesse in der Gemeinde beeinflusst?
Strategic planning: infor mation management and decision
making
Q-12 How did you find out about the challenges you have described to me?
Wie haben Sie von denen von Ihnen beschriebene Herausforderungen erfahren?
Q-13 Tell me, how do you proceed in your firm when decisions are made and which
persons are being involved within this process?
Erzählen Sie mir, wie gehen Sie im Betrieb vor, wenn Sie eine Entscheidung treffen und welche Personen werden dabei einbezogen?
Local business network
Q-14 To what extent do you expect or do your require support of other individuals
or organizations do face the challenges you described to me [name challenges]?
Inwieweit erwarten bzw benötigen Sie für die von Ihnen beschriebenen Herausforderungen {Herausforderungen benennen} von anderen
Personen oder Organisationen Unterstützung?
Q-15 Which joint projects do you plan or have you planned with other individuals
or organizations?
Welche Projekte planen Sie gemeinsam mit anderen Personen oder Organisationen bzw welche haben Sie gemeinsam geplant?
Q-16 Which businesses and other organizations, but also individuals shape local
tourism within your destination in your point of view?
Welche Unternehmen und Organisationen oder auch Einzelpersonen prägen aus Ihrer Sicht den Tourismus in der Gemeinde?
A 3.1 INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR BUSINESS MANAGERS
327
Room for further issues of relevance
Q-17 Would you like to suggest further issues that from your perspective are of
importance?
Möchten Sie mir noch weitere Aspekte nennen, die aus Ihrer Sicht von Bedeutung sind?
Q-18 Are there any further issues or questions that I should involve in my future
interviews?
Gibt es aus Ihrer Sicht noch inhaltliche Punkte und Fragen, die ich in Zukunft mit einbeziehen sollte?
Q-19 Could I get back to you by telephone, in case I have further questions?
Könnte ich noch einmal telefonisch auf Sie zurückkommen, für den Fall, dass ich Nachfragen habe?“
Short questionnaire: socio-economic data on the business
•
guest capacity and use of capacity
•
staff size
•
share of revenue in winter season
A 3.2 Additional questions to representatives of other
organizations (local administration, tourism associations)
Organizational planning
Q-20 With which questions regarding the local economy do you currently deal with
in your organization?
Mit welchen Problemen, die lokale Wirtschaft betreffend, setzen Sie sich in Ihrer Organisation momentan auseinander?
Q-21 How would you describe the role of your organization in coping with these
problems?
Wie würden Sie die Rolle Ihrer Organisation bei der Bewältigung dieser Probleme beschreiben?
Q-22 Are there any things in this regard that your organization would like to
contribute, but is not able to? If yes: why can‘t you implement these ideas?
Gibt es dabei Dinge die Ihre Organisation gerne leisten würde aber nicht kann – wenn ja: warum lässt sich das nicht umsetzen?
328
ANNEX
Social network
Q-23 To what extent do you or does your organization expect support of other
individuals or organizations to cope with the challenges, you described to me
[name challenges]?
Inwieweit erwarten bzw benötigt Ihre Organisation für die von Ihnen beschriebenen Herausforderungen {Herausforderungen benennen}
von anderen Personen oder Organisationen Unterstützung?
Q-24 I would be interested with which organizations and businesses you cooperate
and how these cooperation look like in detail?
Mich würde interessieren, mit welchen Organisationen und Unternehmen Sie zusammenarbeiten und diese Kooperation im Einzelnen
aussieht.

Sebastian Helgenberger: Dissertation thesis

Transcription

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