Delivering transport solutions in times of austerity
Transcription
Delivering transport solutions in times of austerity
the review European edition What makes a successful public private partnership? • Reforming air passenger rights The future of cities • Capturing the economic value of stations Delivering transport solutions in times of austerity Issue 42 April 2012 www.steerdaviesgleave.com welcome march 2012 CEOs’ comment New faces Welcome to the latest edition of the Steer Davies Gleave Review. Network Rail Director returns to Steer Davies Gleave In this issue we examine the changes to the way transport is being funded, planned and delivered, and how emerging technologies and the ever evolving economic and social pressures will present both further opportunities and new challenges. These changes have forced transport consultancies and engineering practices to change. For some this has led to their acquisition but for Steer Davies Gleave, our independence has allowed us to solely focus on our clients and to make investments and changes that advance our business. We continue to grow, having recently opened a base in Paris, and are delighted to see some of the industry’s best talent recruited into our senior team (see right). Best regards Hugh Jones and Steve Hewitt joint ceos The Review is read by the review over 8000 transport Steer Davies Gleave’s news & reviews How do we keep our roads moving? • Curing Europe’s ‘capacity crunch’ £85 million for the Northern Hub • Making the most of what we have Four decades of rail advice Issue 41 September 2011 www.steerdaviesgleave.com 2 professionals around the world. If you would like to receive a free subscription visit: www.steerdaviesgleave. com/subscribe We are delighted to welcome back Mike Goggin as our newest Director. In his role as Director of International Advisory, Mike will support clients across the modes and across the business’s international portfolio in the specification of investments, assessment and development of transactions and through providing practical expertise from his business, railway operating and station experience. Mike has worked in the rail and transit Julian Sindall associate Julian Sindall joins as our new Head of Engineering within the feasibility and technical advisory team. Julian will work closely with non-technical clients, stakeholders and partners to develop innovative and robust solutions or to provide independent reviews. A chartered civil engineer, Julian has worked in the rail industry for over 20 years. He joins Steer Davies Gleave from Atkins. Paul Hollingsworth associate Paul Hollingsworth joins us as Head of Technical Due Diligence services in roads, railways, airports and developments. Bringing a multidisciplinary approach to due diligence of major infrastructure projects, Paul will working closely with clients, their advisors and other stakeholders to identify risk mitigation measures and quantify risk, while providing a totally objective and independent review. Previously, Paul was Director of Rail Management at Atkins. He has advised lenders on major projects for more than 20 years and is a Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers. industry for 20 years and rejoins us from Network Rail, where he was Director of Stations and Customer Service. In this role Mike led a portfolio of activities that included the organisation’s strategy for its 2538 railway stations, the reform of the privatised station leasing model and consolidating the business’s approach to provision of passenger information. Mike was accountable for a number of national station investment programmes whose combined value is in excess of £500 million. Before leaving Steer Davies Gleave in 2009 Mike led a number of high profile assignments for clients in the UK, North America and the Middle East. Peter Piet associate Peter Piet joins Steer Davies Gleave to lead our urban design and landscape team. A chartered landscape architect and urban designer, Peter brings 30 years’ experience in landscape and urban design for public realm and city centre developments. He Joins from landscape architectural firm Martha Schwartz. Tony Sheach associate Tony Sheach joins as Steer Davies Gleave’s new Head of Strategic Development, and will lead our expansion of transport planning and development work outside of London. He is a chartered civil engineer and previously held the position of Chairman of ICE’s Thames Valley Branch. He has 20 years of land development sector experience, leading on the transport aspects of major development schemes. He joins from Peter Brett Associates. Visit www.steerdaviesgleave.com to find out more about our recent joiners. News in brief Amtrak’s high-speed vision Steer Davies Gleave is part of a team preparing a business and financial plan to support Amtrak’s programme for developing true high-speed rail in the Northeast Corridor. By far the most significant intercity passenger rail service in the USA today is Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor service between Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington DC. The service consists of both high-speed Acela and conventional regional rail operations. Already, Amtrak has a higher market share than all air carriers combined in the New YorkWashington and New York-Boston markets: it is faster between city centres and offers a better travel environment. But Amtrak’s trains run over old and mixed-use infrastructure, sharing tracks with commuter rail and freight operations. On many sections, speeds are considerably less than the trains can achieve. The Northeast Corridor represents perhaps the best opportunity to create a true highspeed rail operation in the US. Corridor population is expected to grow from 50m to 70m by 2050, with a corresponding increase in travel demand and congestion levels. However, opportunities for significant improvements to the Corridor’s highway and air facilities appear limited. A true high-speed rail system could be a highly effective intercity travel mode, one that may well help shape the pattern and location of development. Amtrak has not been idle. It has established, following a widely cast consultation with stakeholders, a Northeast Corridor Infrastructure Master Plan to bring existing facilities to a state of good repair, replacing in the process life-expired elements such as lifting bridges on the shore sections through Rhode Island and Connecticut. Last year, Amtrak published a proposal for true high-speed service over mostly new alignments in the Corridor. The challenge now is to work out how to deliver a programme which, taking the Master Plan and true high-speed rail together, will cost over $150bn and be implemented in step over several decades. To address that challenge, Amtrak has commissioned the development of a business and financial plan from a team that is headed by KPMG and includes Steer Davies Gleave in major business planning and ridership forecasting roles. For some, the answer may seem simple: turn the project over to the private sector. But while the private sector has played a valuable role in high-speed rail development around the world, all systems to date have needed some form of Government involvement and funding. Steer Davies Gleave has been at the forefront of high-speed rail planning across Europe, including leveraging private and public funding to deliver projects successfully. We will draw on this extensive experience as we prepare the business and financial plan to support Amtrak’s ambitious Northeast Corridor programme. Maintenance and renewal of Network Rail Great Britain’s rail industry has produced its Initial Industry Plan for Control Period 5 from 2014 to 2019, on the basis of which the Office of Rail Regulation is developing its Advice to Ministers on the efficient costs of the railway. We are advising ORR on bottom-up benchmarking of Network Rail’s proposed £3.3 billion CP5 maintenance and renewal expenditure. With Network Rail devolving many of its activities to its ten operating routes, we are also advising on how data on unit costs by operating route can be collected and used to support benchmarking and regulation. Etihad rail economic study Following the development of a proposed national railway network for the UAE, Etihad Rail appointed SDG (supported by Oxford Economics) to assess the economic case for its construction and the operation of the planned freight and passenger services. Railway route Paris office To add to our global network of offices, Steer Davies Gleave is delighted to announce the opening of our Paris office. We have been working in France for over 10 years, providing advisory services in road, rail and air. Contact Edward O’Loughlin e [email protected] t + 33 (0)9 81 39 16 14 28 avenue de Messine Chez DPPM 75008 Paris - France 3 The future of cities Over 50% of the world’s population are now living in cities. This urban majority is forecast to grow. In this issue of The Review we look in more detail at how transportation continues to contribute to our vision of Future Cities. By Eleni Harlan The UN forecasts that the number of city dwellers will rise in the coming decades. By 2050 the world population will reach nine billion, and two in three children born in the next 30 years will live in cities. Behind these global forecasts lie a vast range of challenges and opportunities that cities provide. The original reason for their development of many older industrial cities has disappeared. World markets and demands change, and many cities have seen decline with out-migration, exacerbated by the more affluent, educated and mobile moving on to better prospects. This presents a challenge for these cities to reinvent themselves and to attract a new and more mobile workforce. For example Manchester, within one generation’s lifetime, has resurrected itself from the ashes of being an industrial powerhouse to become an international hub for the creative sector. Cities, like global climate patterns, are in a state of change and flux. Those that survive (that are sustainable) are the ones 4 which adapt to new circumstances. As many older cities are renewing ageing landscapes, new mega-cities are developing apace in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where growing economies and opportunities are producing rapidly expanding urbanised areas, and provision of basic infrastructure – water, sanitation, transport – is struggling to keep up with demand. Socio-demographics are also dynamic, with a shift in priorities and mobility needs also shaping these new urban patterns. Life expectancy is increasing, and a more active elderly population, including empty-nesters, are looking for new urban lifestyles. Conventional suburban living is proving to be less attractive for some and there is evidence of a move back to the urban core. Younger generations, powered by better social networking facilities, gravitate towards urban lifestyles as well. In the global marketplace, city leaders and planners are increasingly recognising the need to invest to provide cities that will attract investment and generate prosperity. The packages of city-shaping measures that combine to produce an attractive city are many and varied. Innovation is paramount in shaping a city’s future. In Japan, they have used super-porous road tarmac to counteract the excess heat absorbed in the concrete jungle, which was causing higher temperatures and dramatic changes to the local microclimate. In Rio de Janeiro, football stadia host local produce markets to maximise space utilisation in the sprawling metropolis. Innovative solutions such as these require a canny resourcefulness from urban planners to meet the demands of the urban population. As well as a choice of housing stock, a sustainable urban lifestyle ideally means a broad range of amenities and choices for work and recreation, and transport and mobility. Cities that are over-reliant on the car are increasingly seen by planners as being at a disadvantage. Sprawling road networks congested with traffic searching for expensive and limited parking are not attractive, and the heavily-marketed “freedom of the road” is increasingly being seen as an illusion. Greater transportation choice, providing mobility for all urban communities, is now a key part of the city-shaping toolkit. Walking and cycling are becoming prominent as city spaces and parks are increasingly key components of urban life. A ‘green lung’ of parks, walking and cycle routes reaching across East London will be an Olympic legacy. Transit systems – buses, light rail, railways – provide easy and direct connections. The “20-minute neighbourhood”, pioneered in Portland, Oregon, is becoming the attractive urban offer, in which 80% of urban needs can be found within 20 minutes of home. New technology is being deployed to remove real and perceived barriers to mobility, and smart solutions are providing convenient and attractive mobility hubs producing opportunities to connect modes and people. To find out more contact Eleni Harlan e [email protected] The impact of technology on transport The way we travel, the way we make our daily decisions, and how we pay for our travel are all set to change dramatically over the next 20 years. By Dr Craig Nelson One of the key drivers of this change will be technology and, in particular, the proliferation of internet-enabled, location-sensitive mobile devices and the data they produce. These devices will not only provide transport information but also provide network operators with data and a platform to manage and improve services, monitor and manage traffic flows and build customer relationships. journey genie One of our current projects, Journey Genie, will help tourists to plan travel itineraries around the Highlands and Islands of Scotland via public transport. By using Traveline Scotland public transport data and points of interest data, visitors will be able to leave the car at home and enjoy the scenery by bus, train and ferry. The app will provide live weather updates and offer attraction alternatives if the outlook is grim. It will also use GPS technology to allow visitors to find nearby attractions and events and to plan journeys. Ticketing is also going mobile, with a number of train operating companies now offering electronic ticketing and contactless Near Field Communication (NFC) payments that allow payment with a wave of a smartphone. It is expected that NFC will replace cash payments by 2016, by which time Paypal predicts that £2.5 billion will be spent every year via NFC in the UK. Building on our work with Brighton and Hove Council to develop its “Journey On” travel information website, Steer Davies Gleave has recently developed a universal smartphone journey planning app. The app provides bus and rail departure information, door-to-door journey planning and “find my nearest” functionality. We are already seeing a switch from website access to mobile access for real time information, something we expect to continue as European smartphone penetration rates reach 95% by 2015 (Euromonitor, 2011). To find out more contact Craig Nelson e [email protected] 5 high-speed rail High speed is go! The UK Government announced its intention to proceed with HS2, a new high-speed line to link London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. This announcement represents another significant investment of political capital in the fortunes of high-speed rail as a means of sustainable economic growth. Politicians, it seems, are increasingly convinced of the merits of high-speed rail with similar support in countries with limited or no current high-speed capabilities such as the USA, Brazil, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. However, winning political support is only the first stage in the complex story of developing successful high speed rail projects and services. HS2 will now need to deal with a range of significant and outstanding questions including: • Strengthening and articulating the economic case for significant investment that high-speed represents and which is the focus for the AntiHS2 Lobby currently in the UK • Understanding and trading-off environmental concerns from the route’s alignment and construction to meet planning requirements and ultimately to deliver a better solution • Integrating high-speed services into existing stations and communities – in HS2’s case at London Euston – while recognising the existing stations’ roles and managing the transport impacts sympathetically, including the effects on local roads, bus and metro services • Developing and creating new stations – in HS2’s case in central Birmingham, at Birmingham Interchange and at Old Oak Common in west London – not only as interchanges but also as catalysts for new and sustainable developments • Making best use of the capacity released by high-speed rail on the existing air, rail and road networks Boarding TheRide in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA Developing a 30 year transit master plan Steer Davies Gleave is working with the Michigan’s Ann Arbor Transportation Authority to develop a 30 year transit master plan for the city and the surrounding region. By Fred Beltrandi Ann Arbor, located to the east of Detroit and the Detroit Metro Airport, is home to the famous University of Michigan. During the recent recession, Ann Arbor was one of the few areas in the State of Michigan that managed to sustain economic growth. It is frequently listed among the most liveable medium-sized cities in the USA, and has a long tradition in sustainable transport planning. The Ann Arbor Transportation Authority (AATA) which is branded TheRide, operates a comprehensive city-wide, fixed-route network, limited commuter express buses routes, park & ride and door-to-door services within the urban area. Like the public transport agencies of many mid-sized US cities, it is increasingly challenged to provide this diversity of services within a constrained funding environment. AATA asked Steer Davies Gleave to develop a financially sustainable short- to long-term transit plan that would meet the growing demands of residents and businesses, provide access to vital lifeline destinations, 6 support economic growth and job creation, improve mobility of an ageing population and, most importantly, be supported by the local community. We worked closely with the AATA and local stakeholders and citizens to chart an effective, feasible way forward. Following the recommendations of the Steer Davies Gleave plan, AATA will shortly be introducing an Airport Express service, in partnership with a private operator, extending the commuter express network, and taking over the management and operation of ‘van pool’ services, which until last year were managed by the State. Looking ahead, AATA is working with the University and local businesses to develop two high-capacity transit corridors, including adjacent property development. Expansion of the world-renowned medical facility at the University will also provide an opportunity to develop a new multimodal hub on the rail corridor to Detroit. Given the uncertainty of Federal funding, and limited availability of even scarcer State funds, the public transit market in the USA faces real challenges. Many agencies are looking at innovative ways of growing local funding sources. Among the innovations now being actively considered are new income generating methods and the use of public private partnerships in operations. To find out more contact Fred Beltrandi e [email protected] special infrastructure funding & delivery special infrastructure funding & delivery The UK Government’s goal to stimulate the economy by redirecting £5 billion to Chancellor George Osborne’s National Infrastructure Plan, includes funding for 20 transport projects. As this edition of the Review went to press, the Prime Minister made an important speech on the need to push forward in renewing our road infrastructure. Having worked with promoters on several of the schemes being funded, we share some of our opinions and experiences within the next few pages. We consider both new and existing funding mechanisms, tools to understanding the real benefits to the local economy, and the challenge of getting more for less. By Charles Russell To find out which schemes we have worked on, visit: www.steerdaviesgleave.com/newsand-insights/SDG-helps-secure1billion-of-transport-investment Building on an initiative first launched last autumn to attract £20 billion investment from the pension funds in the country’s infrastructure, he has now addressed the issue of how to create genuine investment opportunities in the sector. The question is how to identify investment opportunities that lead to reliable revenue streams that can be ring-fenced to provide a healthy return to the investment. The headline, of course, is the introduction of tolls. The Government has been quick to make it clear that there is no possibility of charging tolls on existing infrastructure, although, through the snow storm of comment and official response, it is not clear quite what this allows or inhibits. Can we really anticipate that we will be tolled to use a new interchange on an existing motorway, as some of the present language suggests? There are surely few opportunities for new greenfield projects - for new projects like M6 Toll. Instead, the focus must be on shovel-ready projects where much of the planning has been completed, and probably on hybrid projects, like the managed lane schemes under development in the US. These schemes create new capacity within the right of way of an existing road, with the new capacity tolled to maintain a high level of service. It is likely that the upcoming A14 scheme, already being studied for alternative financing, will be the poster boy. Can we expect to see the provision of new tolled capacity for the commuters who dominate the traffic on the road - or perhaps charging for new truck lanes for the crucial strategic port movements? However, it is still hard to envisage many public projects where new revenues raised directly from the user will be adequate (even if available) to attract private funds on a non-recourse basis. Without this, this initiative rests on diversion of existing taxes to the investor, or on the reestablishment of the availability payment regimes, which have already provided more than £1.7 billion investment on more than 850km of DBFO (design, build, finance & operate) highways across the country. One of the reasons that that programme was halted was, possibly that new accounting procedures determined that this investment was on the national balance sheet. Can this new initiative be different? The real challenge for the Treasury is to develop an approach that can create a genuine investment opportunity for the private sector - in a political environment where it is impossible to grasp the nettle of tolls and road charging. To find out more contact Charles Russell e [email protected] nottingham tram In December 2012 the Tramlink Nottingham consortium signed the contract for the £570 million Nottingham Express Transit Phase Two concession. Steer Davies Gleave has acted as traffic and revenue advisors to the consortium. Under the contract the concessionaire will construct two new routes (to Chilwell and Clifton) and operate the entire network, including the existing NET operation between Nottingham and Hucknall, for a 23 year period. 7 special infrastructure funding & delivery Infrastructure investment creates jobs We look at one of the projects identified in the National Infrastructure Plan to see what impact it could have on jobs and the economic development of the local area. to promote growth, and has announced that £5 billion would be redirected to the delivery of the National Infrastructure Plan with the aim of creating better transport systems, broadband networks and sustainable energy supplies and, above all, more jobs. In better times, construction jobs would not be considered an economic benefit. But now, with 170,000 architects, engineers and tradesmen on benefits and desperately seeking work, the opportunity cost of these projects is at an all-time low. By Duncan Kernohan The UK economy appears to have stabilised since the autumn, but promoting growth is still top of the agenda. Inflation is up, wage growth is down and unemployment is at a 17-year high (see graph) with 1.7 million people claiming Job Seekers Allowance in February 2012. This not only creates hardship for the millions of individuals unable to find work, but also is hugely expensive for the Treasury. On average, each claimant costs the taxpayer £10,000 in benefit payments and lost income tax per year, imposing a total cost of around £17 billion on the economy. Official forecasts show that this cost is expected to rise into 2013, but it is not yet a foregone conclusion. The Government is taking steps We used our SpECTra model to analyse the economic benefits of Network Rail’s Northern Urban Centres project, which will redevelop Salford Crescent station to provide train stabling, platform lengthening and capacity enhancements on Route 20 between Manchester and Liverpool. The project will cost £96 million over three years and (assuming a conventional benefit-cost ratio of 1.5), once completed, will provide net welfare benefits of around £50 million for rail passengers over a 60 year period. But what about the impacts on the economy in an area with one of the highest levels of unemployment in the country? In the short term, the scheme is likely to generate around 660 ‘direct’ full-time equivalent jobs. Supply United Kingdom Unemployment Rate percentage of the labour force 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 Jan/02 Jan/04 Jan/06 Jan/08 Jan/10 source: www.tradingeconomics.com | uk office for national statistics 8 4 chain impacts and wages will also generate a further 795 ‘indirect’ and ‘induced’ jobs, which could reduce the benefit bill by up £15 million over the course of construction. In the long term, the project will provide wider benefits by improving the perceptions of the local area, increasing land values, and generating productivity benefits of around £29 million per year. Taking account of these wider impacts, the benefit-cost ratio of the project grows from 1.5 to 2.2. The project could create around 15 permanent jobs in the local economy, increasing GVA (gross value added) by £1.3 million per year, providing a compelling economic case for investment. To find out more contact Duncan Kernohan e [email protected] what is spectra How we appraise transport projects is changing. With increased power to local decision-makers and more importance given to local impacts, we need to assess how transport projects meet local needs. Steer Davies Gleave developed SpECTra (Spatial Economic Consequences of Transport), a modelling framework that predicts how transport improvements translate into economic impacts at a sub-regional level. It helps scheme promoters understand what the impacts of a transport improvement are likely to be, answering questions about job creation, increased economic development and its contribution to meeting economic objectives. special infrastructure funding & delivery ‘More for less’ - the efficiency challenge Getting more for less has become core to the strategy of most governments and organisations, but efficiency benchmarking could provide essential insight into significant cost savings. By Felicity Hulme The UK Spending Review set in stone the coalition Government’s plans for an Age of Austerity that would see Government expenditure cut by almost a fifth. Calls for an about-turn have come from unions and public sector workers, and from more than 100 leading economists in a letter to the Observer newspaper in October 2011. But, with the exception of the National Infrastructure Plan, Chancellor Osborne’s Statement showed little sign of deviating from ‘plan A’. At the same time Government, and the population at large, are keen to see service levels maintained and even enhanced. While many governments aspire to secure the same, or even better, services from fewer resources, few have succeeded in the past. Economists have a name for this holy grail being pursued by successive governments – quite simply efficiency. efficient firms have been able to secure credit for further investment and growth. This applies as much to regulated companies, such as infrastructure managers and airport operators, as to non-regulated firms. Regulatory arrangements usually give financial rewards for efficiency, and penalise inefficiency, which in turn promotes creditworthiness. then benchmarked against Speedybus. An estimate is formed of each firm’s efficiency, together with its efficiency gap – the percentage cost reduction that could be expected by adopting the best performer’s practices and technologies. For example Slocoach – the worst efficiency performer – has an efficiency score of 53%, so that its efficiency gap is 47%. Assessing efficiency With economic efficiency right at the top of governments’ and firms’ agendas, a natural issue is how one can tell whether a particular bus company, government department, local authority, airport or infrastructure manager is efficient, and decide just how much savings could be achieved without compromising on the services provided. Efficiency benchmarking At Steer Davies Gleave, we have been involved in a large number of programmes across the transport sector aimed at assessing efficiency and the scope for cost reduction. In rail for example, we have had a continuing role in the Office of Rail Regulation’s work assessing Network Rail’s efficiency, and have recently undertaken the first systematic study into the cost efficiency of High Speed 1. Similarly, we have been involved in benchmarking of air traffic control providers, and have assessed toll roads, toll bridges and local transport companies across Europe. Economists have mainly used statistical tools for this efficiency benchmarking, taking into account structural differences between organisations such as size and location, and constructing an index reflecting unit costs and other aspects and efficiency. The figure below illustrates this analysis for a number of bus companies. Speedybus is the efficient firm – it has the lowest costs of all companies. Other firms are To find out more contact Felicty Hulme e [email protected] Inefficiency Gap 100 Of course, getting more for less is not exclusively a public sector ambition. Indeed firms, often exposed to merciless competition from their peers, face profound incentives to become more efficient even in the most prosperous economic times. The continuing economic conditions have meant that only the most demonstrably 80 60 40 20 0 Speedybus A28 Prime Travel Omega coaches Interegional Slocoach 9 special infrastructure funding & delivery Improving transport infrastructure during times of austerity The transport sector is changing rapidly, and the pressure is on decision-makers to make best use of the limited funds available both to plan for and to deliver successful projects to secure a better future. By Steve Hewitt With issues such as increased congestion, increased urbanisation, deteriorating city centres, capacity shortages and infrastructure being at the forefront of debate, coupled with a shortage of public funds, the pressure is on for policymakers, sponsors, investors and stakeholders to come up with fresh thinking. In support of this, transport practitioners need to respond to these challenges without breaking the bank. The question arises of how best to define the problem and shape cost-effective solutions. We have listed a number of strategic themes that can help our clients to think through the opportunities. Sometimes, the small initial investment will unlock the door to making the larger strategic scheme happen. The trick is to ensure that the small investment is consistent with potential future larger investments, and this will require big picture planning sitting alongside smaller scale attention to strategic detail. liberalisation city shaping build small, think big Faced with large public sector deficits, governments are increasingly going to consider liberalising their transport networks and systems, opening them up to competition. Governments, agencies and regulators will seek structures and methods to introduce some competition (and new money) to generate new approaches and to drive efficiencies. Changing the role, risk profile and types of players may provide opportunities for operators to propose innovative products and service solutions. Authorities want solutions that will shape and develop smarter cities to improve quality of life, attract investment and reduce congestion. Transit master planning, city-wide transport planning and transit project development are growing areas of investment as they provide an important solution to the challenges facing many rapidly-growing cities across the world. Not all transit solutions are infrastructure heavy. For example, bus rapid transit can deliver very cost effective improvements to local economic development. Incremental change and small scale infrastructure projects may not, at first, appear to bring the step change required, the assumed economies of scale, and the cachet of the sexy, grand projects remain very attractive. However, well-planned, well-targeted changes can have a massive impact locally and really make a difference. Classic examples of this are interchange projects, where relatively inexpensive improvements have significant impacts on the overall quality of the journey and achieve important savings in journey times as well as potentially acting as a catalyst for wider local improvements in urban realm. Retail centre Integrated bus/ tram stop european commission We are currently working for the European Commission on an economic impact study to inform the next package of EU rail legislation. This will include an assessment of the impact of further liberalisation of rail passenger markets across Europe, in particular opening up of domestic markets to competition and competitive tendering of concessions. ann arbor, usa We are developing a 30 year transit master plan for the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority in Michigan, USA. See article on page 6 for further details. Croydon Centrale bus/ tram interchange transport for london, uk Sense of Place Transport for London’s Interchange Best Practice Guidelines, 2009 were written and produced by Steer Davies Design provides the opportunity to create places, streets and spaces that The meet the needs of people,now are visually attractive, Gleave. Guidelines form the safe, accessible, functional, inclusive, have their own distinctive identity and and improve localproject character. Place-making basis of maintain all interchange briefs architecture should be encouraged when upgrading or designing and central thetoconsistent a neware interchange facilityto or zone make the best use of the opportunity for a better public building, helping to support a evaluation and improvement of sense of local pride and civic architecture. Quality and affordability of facilities accross will affect the London. character of transport interchange the interchange zone and contribute to its quality and sense of place. Have you considered and addressed? • Does the surrounding area have its own function and identity? 10 • Is the interchange zone well connected with external facilities? • Does the quality of design create tangible added value to the local area? • Are commercial facilities on offer appropriate to the special infrastructure funding & delivery 10 efficient project development Top 10 tips mobility management Public authorities are increasingly interested in solutions linked to changing behaviour, demand management (including freight), and encouraging use of sustainable modes such as walking, cycling or transit. The growing availability of technology, new communication channels and access to information is driving demand for innovative solutions to manage mobility, achieving modal shift at lower cost. With experience of major development projects for Docklands Light Railway, Kuwait Metro, Etihad Rail and others, our new Head of Engineering offers recommendations for the delivery of successful projects. By Julian Sindall 1 Be prepared Planning processes can take years. Use the time now to develop schemes so that when the money is unlocked again, the project is ready for delivery. 2 dundee city council, uk Steer Davies Gleave worked closely with Dundee City Council in Scotland to develop the Travel Active project. We designed the website from initial concept through to the development of the software application. The innovative Travel Active site has increased programme membership by 500 people in the area. Adopt the motto of Silicon Valley, find out which schemes don’t work early on. Be ruthless in abandoning schemes that don’t deliver enough and learn the lessons. Break with tradition Reverse the feasibility process – start with the budget and see what you can design for the money. If you can’t do it, then you haven’t got a scheme. 6 Don’t compensate for lack of experience with big teams. A few wise heads will get you closer to the answer much quicker than design by committee. Know what you want Take time to develop your requirements in detail. You will have to do so at some point, so better to save money by refining them at the beginning of the project than half way through, or later. 7 Test and challenge Get a second independent opinion. It won’t cost much but it will bring you either comfort or added value. 8 Pay once Develop whole life cost thinking from the start so that you don’t pay for it again in untimely maintenance and renewals. Invest innovatively Pursue new funding avenues such as sponsorship, revenue sharing or private finance with buy-back break points in the contract. 10 Experience pays Rely on relationships What you save on competitive pricing you may lose in the learning curve. Cut-throat pricing indicates a team in trouble, and they may not be around for long enough to deliver the job. 9 3 4 To find out more contact Steve Hewitt e [email protected] Fail quickly 5 Think holistically No project exists in isolation, and most major risks and opportunities come from those interfaces. Work with a team that knows how the project relates to its environment. 11 special infrastructure funding & delivery Arlanda Express, image courtesy of Niklas Alm Photography Successful public private partnerships PPP in Europe has enabled many large capital projects to be realised, and some common factors contribute significantly to a successful outcome. By Paul Hollingsworth The Lenders’ Technical Advisor (LTA) has a privileged insight into major projects, being involved in the consortium’s tender and funding, design, construction, operations and maintenance. A successful project has to be viewed from the perspective of the public, the client, the special purpose company promoting the project, the contracting consortium with its supply chain, and the investors. It has been observed that there are factors that strongly influence a successful outcome for the stakeholders. PPP projects for railways, trams and roads in Europe are well established. We have seen the Arlandabanan (the high speed link between Stockholm Central and the Arlanda airport) regarded as a success by the travelling public, the owner, investors, competitors and the operating company. The €600 million Coentunnel is now installed successfully under the Noordzeekanaal in Amsterdam despite the challenge of building the elements at Barendrecht near Rotterdam and transporting them over the North Sea. The consortium’s bidding process requires significant investment to develop the design, construct a viable programme of works, 12 identify opportunities, risks, risk mitigations, and arrive at a winning price. The investment provides for rigorous reviews by potential lenders, traffic advisors and technical advisors. Getting it right at the bid stage is crucial. Here are some recommendations for achieving the optimum outcome: The consortium and its supply chain The consortium: the individual companies must have full agreement on commonality of purpose, be prepared to provide senior and support staff for the bid and for the works, and be ready to appoint the best person for the job. Supply chain: key suppliers need to be brought into the discussions at an early date, for example the electrical and mechanical contractor for a tunnel installation, or steelwork suppliers for major bridges. Advisory team The traffic advisor: engage the traffic advisor at the earliest opportunity to get an assessment of the viability of the project from the consortium’s and lenders’ perspectives. The technical advisor: engage the technical advisor early in the bid to provide potential lenders with a realistic appraisal of the potential for success or failure of design and build to meet milestones. The LTA should discuss risks and their mitigation with the bid team at the earliest opportunity. Combined capability Hiring a single team able to provide both traffic and technical advice, such as Steer Davies Gleave, enables a more integrated approach to risks and analysis. Pricing the bid Whole-life costs: most contractors in a bid consortium focus upon the capital cost, whereas PPP needs as much, if not more, attention to optimising the wholelife costs. The technical advisor should also have a view where optimisation of the whole-life costs may be achieved. Risk and risk mitigation: classical risk workshops are obsessed with high impact, low probability events but generally fail to articulate the human side of a successful project: a competent, experienced team where the contracting consortium works in harmony. Project systems Each consortium member will have its own quality system, document control and knowledge management system – “the way we do things round here”. Each company’s system will be different. A quick examination will reveal much commonality and the outline project system should be developed upon the best practice for each. Many clients want to see the outline management systems in the tender … so attend to them early and get agreement within the consortium. In all these matters, we know that experience is key to trust, trust is key to relationships, and relationships are key to successful projects. Get the right people on board, and the rest is relatively easy. To find out more contact Paul Hollingsworth e [email protected] roads april 2012funding air news News in brief Reforming air passenger rights Controversial air passenger rights legislation from the European Commission is under review, and we are advising the Commission on possible revisions. By Simon Smith Since the 1990s, the European transport market has been gradually liberalised. Old restrictions on where airlines could operate, frequencies, and fares have been abolished: for example, easyJet (a UKregistered airline) operates domestic flights in France and Italy. Similar liberalising measures are being introduced, albeit more slowly, in the rail and bus markets. In the aviation sector, liberalisation has been very successful in increasing competition and reducing fares, but many stakeholders are concerned that it has also led to a reduction in service quality. Several measures have therefore been taken to protect passengers – including rules guaranteeing assistance for passengers with reduced mobility, improved price transparency, and protection for passengers whose flights are delayed or cancelled. Since 2005, Steer Davies Gleave has worked with the European Commission on the development and evaluation of consumer protection policy. The most significant and high profile measure has been Regulation 261/2004, which requires airlines to provide assistance (such as meals, hotel accommodation and alternative flights), and in some cases also compensation, to passengers whose flights are delayed or cancelled. However, there have been significant issues with this Regulation. Some of its requirements are unclear and open to multiple interpretations. Some States have not enforced it properly. Many consumer representatives believe that airlines do not comply with it. Airlines argue that the Regulation imposes an unreasonable burden on them, partly because it requires them to assist passengers even for events not within their control; they say that it cost them hundreds of millions of euros during the volcanic ash crisis in 2010. We are now advising the Commission on how the Regulation can be revised. Proposals should be published later this year. To find out more contact Simon Smith e [email protected] Montreal airport link Steer Davies Gleave was appointed by Aéroports de Montréal in June 2010 to develop investment grade forecasts for a proposed rail link connecting Pierre Trudeau airport to downtown Montreal. Work involved an extensive survey of passengers, including a stated preference exercise to estimate their willingness to pay for the shuttle service, and a model estimating demand in various market segments. Following submission of the forecasts, we have undertaken additional work including fare and frequency yield management analysis. Brazil airport commission Steer Davies Gleave is working for one of the bidders for the current tranche of Brazil airport concessions being let by the government for airports in São Paulo and Brasília. These airports include the main São Paulo airport Guarulhos which handles over 20 million passengers per year. Potential bidders include a mixture of domestic, regional and international investors, construction companies and airport operators. Toronto airport The Toronto Airport Rail Link in Canada has reached an important milestone, with financial close reached on the construction of the new spur, worth $124 million. Steer Davies Gleave has provided advice on the passenger market and revenue for Metrolinx. The line is planned to open in 2015 in time for the Pan/Parapan American Games. Leeds station masterplan Steer Davies Gleave was pleased to host and lead a workshop to discuss the preparation of a masterplan for Leeds City Station. Senior representatives of Leeds City Council, Network Rail and Metro attended the event, which considered the role and nature of station masterplans, before discussing the opportunities and issues that the masterplan would need to address. The workshop participants concluded that there was significant potential for the station’s role in both the city and the city region. SDG made recommendations as to the next steps for developing and then delivering the masterplan. 13 All change please! No matter what the transport mode, providing welcoming, effective and efficient spaces for people is essential to meeting social, economic and commercial objectives. By Mike Goggin Mike joined Steer Davies Gleave in November 2011 and was previously Network Rail’s Director of Stations and Customer Service, which included responsibility for its 2538 railway stations. Passengers will tell you, and most operators, appreciate that the experience of passengers as they wait for their train, bus or plane is a pivotal part of their overall journey experience. Passengers may be confused or bewildered by information, uncomfortable due to lack of facilities and/or frustrated by an inability to move quickly to their destination, so transport interchanges can be a considerable driver of their dissatisfaction. 14 However, research continues to show that transport interchanges can also be an agent for satisfaction, as a contributor to overall journey experience and also for stakeholders in the surrounding community, providing a sense of identity, a civic amenity and a focus for change and redevelopment. As our research shows (see the Economic Value of Stations article on page 16) this can have a direct impact on the value of inward investment, tax income from property, and the profile of a city and region. It is not bad news for the interchange owner – in Great Britian, Network Rail continues to report retail sales at its stations outstripping the high street more than threefold. In today’s consumer-led world the travelling public often wish to purchase ‘grab and go’ refreshments or newspapers and their significant footfall represents valuable advertising real estate. All this has implications for interchange design, and is something Steer Davies Gleave has explored for both Transport for London and Network Rail. As the global economies recover it is likely to be transport interchanges that see further commercial development, following the likes of the Shard in London or the proposed Transit Tower in San Francisco, to reap the benefits of their city centre locations and accessibility. To find out more contact Mike Goggin e. [email protected] 2012 conferences Mike is lined up to speak at a series of European conferences throughout 2012, following the UK Rail Stations 2012 conference in London (February), where he spoke on re-appraising the economic value and community importance of stations. Mike will also speak at Railway Terminal World in Vienna, Austria (April), and he will chair the Future of Sustainable/Station Design conference in London (May). april 2012 global news Improving confidence in forecasts: stations and rail projects The UK’s Department for Transport has recently published two pieces of work by Steer Davies Gleave that will help to support more robust investments in rail the Government in November 2011. To develop robust and successful business cases for stations Steer Davies Gleave uses conventional demand forecasting techniques alongside our own bespoke station catchment modelling methodology. To find out more contact Steve Hunter e. [email protected] News in brief Establishing a rail network for Qatar We are working with a PwC-led team to act as strategic business consultants to Qatar Rail (QR). This unique commission is to help QR to develop a rail industry from scratch, including the institutional and regulatory arrangements needed to govern the industry, advising on the scope and phasing of the network, and helping to establish policies on integration, fare policy and ticketing. The network will include a city-wide metro system, a long-distance passenger and freight network, and light rail projects. The work has gained added urgency due to the successful bid by Qatar to host soccer’s 2022 FIFA World Cup. By Steve Hunter In November the Department for Transport (DfT) issued a guidance note for undertaking and commissioning demand forecasting studies. The guidance, aimed at local promoters of potential rail projects such as new stations and infrastructure, is intended to help develop a rigorous investment proposition which can form the basis of an application to DfT for financial and/or other support. (To read the guidance note, see the web link) The guidance note was informed by the “New Stations Study” undertaken by Steer Davies Gleave, on behalf of the Department for Transport, and published in September 2011. This study reviewed the passenger demand forecasts for 27 of 40 stations opened since privatisation of Great Britain’s railway started in 1995. The research compared forecasts with actual demand, investigated the reasons for the differences and the implications for demand forecasting, and highlighted the importance of assumptions which underpin forecasts. (To read the study, see the web link) In completing the study we were able to benefit from our track record in preparing demand forecasts and developing business cases for new stations. We have supported the delivery of nine new stations, now in operation, and a further five stations with recent successful funding applications, including two in the UK’s National Infrastructure Plan announced by Visit these links to read the Guidance Note and New Stations Study: http://assets.dft.gov.uk/ publications/ passenger-demand-forecasting/ guidance-note.pdf http://www.steerdaviesgleave.com/ casestudies/value-station-investmentresearch-network-rail West Bay, Doha, Qatar new entrance for birmingham gateway The redevelopment of Birmingham New Street station continues with construction starting on the brand new north-west entrance which will provide better links between the city’s business district and the redeveloped station. It will open at the end of 2012, when the first half of the new station concourse will open to passengers. Steer Davies Gleave developed the innovative business case for the five funding partners that demonstrated the economic benefits of the redevelopment of the station entrances, concourses and platform accessibility. UK Rail Stations Conference Mike Goggin, current Director at Steer Davies Gleave and former Director of Stations & Customer Service at Network Rail, spoke at the 10th Annual UK and European Rail Stations Conference, held in London in February. The conference brought together key decision-makers involved in planning, designing, operating and managing the UK’s railway stations and interchanges. Mike focused his insights on transformation of the station, discussing both the economic value in investing in stations, and the community importance that stations and interchanges have as public spaces. To request a copy of Mike’s presentation, please email marketing@ sdgworld.net. 15 Capturing the economic value of stations What can station investment deliver in terms of supporting economic development and regeneration? By Tom Higbee The role of the rail network in supporting sustainable economic growth in British cities is well established. Likewise, the benefits to passengers of station investment are also understood, and there is a recognised approach to valuing these benefits through conventional transport appraisal techniques. But what else can station investment deliver in terms of supporting economic development and regeneration? This was the central question posed by Network Rail, who commissioned Steer Davies Gleave to undertake research into the broader economic impact of such investment. What did the research show? Our research showed that stations can play a key role in delivering economic growth through a variety of means, including providing better connectivity to town centres, overcoming capacity constraints, providing development opportunities and improving the overall image of a city through high quality design. However, we also found that station development had not kept pace with the demands of passengers or the needs of modern towns and cities, and that this 16 had constrained growth. At Birmingham New Street, for example, the old station was a barrier between the city centre and the south, while the poor quality station environment and design served to blight much of the surrounding area, creating a legacy of under-investment and depressed land values. Many stakeholders noted the impact that the station appearance had on people’s overall perception of the city and the impact that this had on inward investment. Against this backdrop, well-directed station investment can have a transformational local effect, especially when coordinated with wider public realm improvements and regeneration. At Manchester Piccadilly, station investment was accompanied by an improved public realm and enhanced pedestrian connectivity. The effect was to enhance the overall perception of the area so that developers had the confidence to invest. The result is that an area previously characterised by a poor built environment and low-grade activity now boasts over 650,000 square feet of new or refurbished prime office space and a number of highquality hotels, supporting further expansion and economic growth across the city. Valuing the benefits In order to quantify these effects, we undertook statistical analysis, based on Valuation Office Agency (VOA) data, to determine the impact on property values following station investment at Sheffield Station between 2003 and 2008. The analysis showed that there was a 67% increase in rateable value within 400 metres of the station - three times the average increase across Sheffield over the period. The area also saw major investment, particularly in new commercial properties, and a rise in land values per square foot compared to the city average. Station Investment & Regeneration Station investment Direct land redevelopment (Part of the station scheme) Public realm enhancements Improved image and confidence in area Increased land value Developer interest New higher value developments Additional gross value added, jobs and rateble value special stations and interchanges april 2012 global news News in brief Birmingham New Street station entrance We also estimated the economic benefits associated with these wider property effects using our SpECTRa economic model (See article on page 8), estimating productivity (GVA) impacts associated with station investment in both Sheffield and Manchester of the order of five to seven times those estimated by conventional transport appraisal. What are the implications? The study has implications for scheme design and development and demonstrates the need for stakeholders to establish shared objectives for station investment at the outset. In the current funding climate, it will also become increasingly important to articulate the case in terms of both conventional appraisal and wider regeneration benefits, and use this understanding to help leverage funding from a range of potential sources. To find out more contact Tom Higbee e [email protected] Value of stations seminar Steer Davies Gleave hosts Value of Station Investments Seminar for Network Rail Steer Davies Gleave recently held a seminar for Network Rail’s property team and enhancement sponsors at its London offices. The seminar provided further detail on the research commissioned by Network Rail into the economic impact of station investments. With presentations by a number of Steer Davies Gleave experts, the seminar considered, through an interactive session, the implications of the research for making the case for station investments, and how best to scope and deliver station-associated investments to maximise local economic impacts. City of Edmonton Steer Davies Gleave was recently selected by the City of Edmonton to complete the Concept Design for the Northwest LRT line. The project crosses the former Edmonton City Centre Airport lands which are being planned for a mixed use, sustainable community following new urbanism concepts. We will be responsible for defining the final LRT alignment, stop configurations, cycle/pedestrian connections, traffic analysis, and public consultation. Metro Yellow Bus We have been commissioned by Metro in the UK to write up and publicise their work on “My Bus” yellow bus scheme as part of their CARE-North EU funding. This work has now been extended to cover other dissemination of smarter choices work. The information includes how to set up a school yellow bus scheme guide and downloadable documents, case studies and technical help such as driver training requirements, and a spreadsheet tool to calculate the costs and benefits. Toronto’s new wayfinding strategy Steer Davies Gleave is delighted to have been appointed to deliver a Wayfinding System Strategy (Phase One) for the City of Toronto. Working with the city, stakeholders and our local urban realm and planning partners, DIALOG, the strategy will provide the framework and implementation strategy for a multimodal wayfinding system including pilot areas in advance of the 2015 Pan American Games. Read The Value of Station Investment report : http://www.steerdaviesgleave.com/ sites/default/files/newsandinsights/ Station_Investment_Report.pdf Royal Ontario Museum, Toronto 17 Stepping out of the station Agency responsibilities, and thereby project boundaries, often focus efforts on station interchange design, keeping unwanted interruptions in modal transfer to a minimum to ensure a seamless, safe and comfortable journey. By Peter Piet While stations are nodes within the transport network they are also places within the city. They often form part of an historic town or city centre, becoming a focus for social and commercial interaction, with the potential to attract people in large numbers. Stations also have the ability to improve the permeability of the adjacent urban fabric, by reconnecting communities severed by railway infrastructure and providing an essential link within the urban context. The modern interchange is a powerful economic driver that extends beyond the station, condensing development within walking distance and creating an attractive environment. cafes, shelter and access information. Space needs to be provided for the people they attract, young and old, rich and poor, local and visitor. Consistent material and street palettes will be used to enhance the legibility of the interchange and to facilitate wayfinding (see banner image above). Ealing Broadway, London Steer Davies Gleave has been working with London Borough of Ealing, Crossrail and Transport for London to redesign the entrance to the station and to improve the urban realm in the wider interchange area around Haven Green. Key changes we are proposing include removal of pedestrian guard rail and a wall on the station forecourt which block movement to and from the station, Haven Green and the town centre. Road and footpath alignments have also been reconsidered and, where possible, pavement widths have been increased and carriageways narrowed. This will ease movement at pinch points in the footpath network, where overcrowding is a problem. It also reduces crossing distances, enhancing the connectivity across the interchange area and the town centre. All too often major roads form pedestrian barriers around stations with passengers taken into subways, penned in by pedestrian guard railing, or left stranded on inappropriately located and sized traffic islands. These need to be redesigned, and the station linked, physically and visually, to urban areas using a network of streets and views to notable landmarks. While the space immediately outside the station needs be designed to take account of peak periodic passenger movements, the social importance of this gathering space must not be underestimated. Stations are fast becoming a new form of community hub, or urban magnet, with places to buy groceries, use internet Archway gyratory - before 18 Archway, London Steer Davies Gleave has been appointed to review the existing highway layout and urban realm at the Archway gyratory. A long-held ambition of London Borough of Islington is to reconnect the island in the centre of the gyratory with Archway Station. Our proposals include a complete redesign of the gyratory layout, including narrowing the main april 2012 online Online insights Using travel plans to manage parking demand at rail stations By Simon Hollowood Re-design of Ealing Broadway station entrance road between the station and island to a single bus lane to facilitate easier movement for pedestrians and create the sense of a shared space between buses, cyclists and pedestrians (images below). Directional guidance in a location such as this is essential in helping people find the destinations beyond the immediate vicinity of the station, as well as interchange between travel modes. This supports movement between stations and surrounding destinations, including streets, footpaths, cycle routes and public spaces, ensuring continuity of movement, which in turn optimises journey times and manages potential conflicts in pedestrian flows. Translink, Vancouver Steer Davies Gleave was also appointed by Translink, Vancouver to develop integrated design guidelines, to ensure that a consistent approach to the design of transit projects and their surrounding communities is adopted across all modes. Station design is not just about moving passengers from A to B and the provision of localised high quality facilities. It is also about creating a strong relationship between the station and its surrounding context to deliver a richer and more fulfilling environment, enhance local character and provide a sense of place for its users. To achieve this, station design cannot stop at the exit door. To find out more contact Peter Piet e [email protected] It has been almost four years since the first station travel plans were rolled out in Great Britain. Intended as a soft approach to managing travel demand, travel plans have been implemented in schools and workplaces for many years, with mixed results in enabling access by walking, cycling and public transport. Is the travel planning approach the best way to change how people access stations? Indeed, does it matter how people travel to the station? Read full article at: http://www. steerdaviesgleave.com/newsand-insights/bringing-the-cyclingrevolution-to-the-railways Bringing the cycling revolution to the railways By Tony Duckenfield Encouraging more rail travellers to cycle to and from stations is a win-win scenario. It’s good for the wellbeing of the cyclist, for the release of car parking spaces, and for the environment. There is a lot to gain with just 1% of rail journeys involving a “cycle and park” access trip. Arguably, what’s needed is a cycling revolution on the railways with a fundamental shift in perceptions within the industry and among the general public. Read full article at: http://www. steerdaviesgleave.com/news-andinsights/travel-plans-managingparking-demand-at-rail-stations Archway gyratory - after redesign 19 Ten reasons to work with us 1 global Our clients say they value our distinctive global experience. With offices in three continents, we are able to learn from our global best practice. 2 local Local teams in all our markets bring our global expertise to your neighbourhood. 3 innovative Pioneer in the application of stated preference in transport research. Pioneer of techniques to measure economic impacts of transport investment. Pioneer in the use of mobile phone data in transport modelling. We always look to the future. 4 trusted We value our long-running relationships with clients. Our clients keep coming back to us; it tells us that we are doing the right thing. 5 strategic Big businesses, public sector, new technologies and changing markets. We believe in long-term solutions. 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