Diapositiva 1

CIVIL PROTECTION
AND SAFE SKY
DURING THE SPACE VEHICLES REENTRY
DeCAS
PATENTED
An alert system for
the safety of people
and things on the
Earth’s surface
and for
the safety
of aircraft and space
vehicles in flight
26 November 2015
Prof. Piermarco F. Martegani
[email protected]
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When danger comes from the sky
In the Earth’s orbit, there are about
13,000 objects.
For most of them, the disposal will
be through the re-entry into the
atmosphere as required by
international agreements between
agencies in different countries. (i.e
NASA Safety Standard 8719.14 Process for Limiting Orbital Debris)
With the new satellite technologies
and the advent of space tourism SV
reentries in the atmosphere are
expected to rise considerably over
the next few years.
Today we are forced to close
airspace supposedly concerned with
these reentries (with strong
economic impact) and to live
moments of uncertainty and
apprehension
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When danger comes from the sky
•
•
•
The fragmentation of a space vehicle (satellite or
spacecraft) during reentry to the Earth can be
planned or accidental, as in the case of Columbia.
The debris that is generated, whose position is
always uncertain, can be very dangerous to the
population and to high-risk industrial plants (i.e.
nuclear power plants) in addition to the civil and
military aviation.
GOCE reenters atmosphere
Knowing the location and extent of the debris (or
danger area), as well as its dynamics, allows us to
secure and notify all potentially interested parties
in time.
Meteor over Chelyabinsk
(Equivalent to a possible Satellite reentry effects over a town)
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Space Debris Problem
•
•
•
•
•
Space systems in LEO
reenter naturally at very
small angle (<1 degree).
Location of uncontrolled
reentries is unpredictable
Major breakup at ~78 km
10 to 40% of mass
survives
reentry
and
impacts the Earth’s surface
posing hazard to people
and property (e.g. of the
ATV-1 mass of 12.3 tons
about 3.5 tons in 183
fragments
survived
reentry, 28.4% of mass)
Debris spread over long,
thin ground footprint (e.g.
for ATV ~ 817km by 30km)
Saudi Arabia, 2001
Brazil, 2012
New Mexico 2014
South Africa, 2000
Mongolia, 2010
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Space Debris Impact Prediction
 Generally assume ±10-25% error in time of reentry due to atmospheric
and drag uncertainties
Example:
• Prediction made with tracking data 1 orbit revolution (90 minutes)
from
reentry has ±9 minute error
• Object travelling at 7.5 km/sec x ±9 minutes →±4050 km
uncertainty in reentry location
 Some official sources of reentry predictions for uncontrolled reentry send
messages released at intervals (T-4 days, T-3 days, T-2 days, T-1 day, T12 hrs, T-6 hrs,T-2hours)
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WHERE?
 Impact point for surviving fragments
is also impossible to predict
• Spread of fragments will depend on
where fragments are released and
flight characteristics of each fragment
• Fragments impact many kilometers
from each other
• Local wind can be a significant factor
 Uncertainties
are
addressed
by
“footprint probability boxes” (e.g.
1x10-5, and 1x10-2)
 “Footprint probability boxes” are
routinely used to determine re-entry
maneuvers for controlled re-entries
(e.g. ATV)
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RISK FOR AVIATION




Range Commanders Council
321-10 defines the Aircraft
Vulnerability Models (AVMs) to
quantify the areas of aircraft
susceptible
to
catastrophic
event.
Aircraft modeling
Impact consequences
analysis
– Fragment< 300gr
 Tanks
 Cockpit
 Engines
A fragment more than 300gr
causes loss of aircraft.
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A NEED FOR AEROSPACE SAFETY
A system able to:
 determine the exact condition of explosion /
fragmentation of Space Vehicle



early warn the users potentially affected
transmit the dynamics of Danger Area to all
interested users
provide the elements to “suggest" to pilots a
initial escape heading to avoid danger area
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DeCAS - Debris Collision Alerting System
(PATENTED)
•
The system which is small in size and lightweight, is
based on the principle of the black box of the aircraft
and it uses space technologies already tested for data
broadcasting
•
•
It is fitted into or on the vehicle during the
construction phase remaining in a dormant status
until it activates by itself at the moment of
fragmentation of spacecraft sending information
about its location (which corresponds to the space
debris area)
It is useful both in the launch phase (detachment and
re-entry of the various stages of combustion) and in
the re-entry phase.
Not in scale
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DeCAS Integration
(PATENTED)
Hence DeCAS works as a “smart fragment” which
can autonomously determine its own position
during re-entry and which knows its relative
location in the projected hazard area which has
been pre-computed on ground and/or its data are
used directly from a ground station to determine
the Dangerous Area
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Use of DeCAS
and reference market
 Alerting people of the potential danger
•
Market: The Civil Protection Centers around the world
•
Sites of the population potentially affected by the falling of the fragments
 Allowing the safety of sensitive installations
•
Market: Atomic, Chemical and Electrical power plants, oil and gas platforms, dams,
space and military sites, production and special sites etc
 Avoid the imminent collision of aircraft with space debris
•
Market: All the civil and military aviation (Airlines, Air Traffic Control Centers, general
aviation etc)
 Coverage of the areas where the ATC service is not available
•
Market: air traffic on intercontinental routes and areas not covered by the air traffic
services, large sea vessels on intercontinental routes.
•
As a supplementary system to the future contingency procedures for international
flights (long-haul flights) during the launch and reentry of Space Vehicles
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THANK YOU