Innovation Ecosystem

Transcription

Egils Milbergs
Center for Accelerating Innovation
The Innovation Economy
Capital
Knowledge
&
Intangibles
Labor
Agriculture
Industrial
Knowledge
Land
11-8-2007
2
Good News
11-8-2007
3
11-8-2007
4
Elephants and Dragons:
The New Economic Superpowers?
China Overtakes the G3; India is Close Behind
GDP ’03US$bn
50000
China
US
India
25000
Japan
Germany
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99
11-8-2007
5
Competitiveness
THEN
NOW
Japan:
• High-cost, high-wage,
advanced tech - “just like us”
• We have Entrepreneurial
advantage, they have Industrial
Policy advantage
• Rule of Law
• IP Protections
• Subsidized currency, buying
our debt
• National Security: allies
China: New Mix
• Low-cost, low-wage,
advanced tech
• Entrepreneurial
• Using Industrial Policy
• Limited Rule of Law
• IP Theft model – FBI:
$300b/year
• Subsidized currency, buying
our debt
• Nat’l security – peer
competitor
11-8-2007
6
U.S. R&D Investment the World’s Largest, But Others
Increasing Their Investment Faster
High %
R&D/GDP
Source: OECD Data, Council on Competitiveness
11-8-2007
7
VALUE CAPTURED
Disintermediation of Value Chain
Research
Invention
Product Dev.
Design
Creativity
Engineering
Prototyping
Production
Manufacturing
Branding
Marketing
Distribution
Services
Advanced
Economies
Developing
Economies
INNOVATION VALUE CHAIN
11-8-2007
8
Innovation is Accelerating
Percent of U.S. households with:
Electricity Air Travel
Television
100%
Telephone
Radio
90%
80%
Automobile
70%
PC
60%
Cell
phone
50%
40%
Internet
30%
PDA
20%
10%
0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Years since product invented
Sources: J. Gerry Purdy’s presentation “The Next 50 Years in Mobile and Wireless” at Silicon Ventures, Trade press, Industry sources
11-8-2007
9
US Innovation Potential
Emergent/Disruptive Technologies
Organic Innovation Structures
Real Time/Self Configuring Enterprises
30 – 40 %
Entrepreneurship
New Products and Services
Globalized Business Models
Customer Satisfaction
Cost Optimization
20 – 30 %
5 – 10 %
Continuous Improvement Path
Design to x…
short
11-8-2007
Innovation Gain
Potential
Activated By
medium
2 – 3 % annually
long
Time
10
Innovation Model Is Shifting
Linear Model
Ecosystem Model
Research
Development
Commercialization
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Single discipline
Hierarchical governance
Closed system
Internal talent
Controlled process
IP hoarded
Product centric
Forecasting demand
11-8-2007
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Multidisciplinary
Self organizing
relationships
Open innovation
Access talent everywhere
IP commons
Customer centric
Sense and respond
11
ROCKFORD INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM
Creative Class Meets to Develop
a Global Innovation Hotspot
Graphic Illustration of the forum
11-8-2007
12
11-8-2007
13
How Innovation Ecosystems Evolve
Innovation
Ecosystem
ry
o
t
c
e
j
Tra
Virtual Cluster
Growth Node
Nascent Relationships
Virtualized functions
Accelerated collaboration
Many nodes
Dense linkages
Network to Network
Few to many firms
Fast growth
None or few firms Key linkages
Growth potential
11-8-2007
14
Higher Standard of Living
GDP, Quality of Life
Tax Revenues
Modified chart from: ITIF
More Choices
Lower Prices
Higher Wages
More Job
Opportunities
Less Economic
Volatility
Revenues
More Profits
Lower Costs
Adaptive
Workforce
Flexible
Supply Chains
Accelerated
Productivity
Higher Quality
Goods & Services
New Learning
Systems
Competitiveness
Increased
Efficiency
Unique
Business Models
Innovative Products
& Services
Larger Markets
Better
Decision-making
Robust Research
Tools
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
(hardware, software, applications, networks and telecommunications)
11-8-2007
15
Innovation Vital Signs
Joint Initiative:
Surveyed 52 Public Reports, 3126 Indicators
–
–
–
–
18 Global Reports
10 National Reports
15 Regional Reports
9 Enterprise Reports
Industry Indicator Survey – variety of sources and
data types available
11-8-2007
16
Innovation Ecosystem
Major Subsystems and Linkages
Macro-Economic
Conditions
Public Policies
R&D
Talent
Capital
Business
Models
Value
Outputs
Impacts
Networks
Infrastructure
11-8-2007
Market
Demand
Source: Egils Milbergs
Innovation Framework
National Mindset
17
Global Indicators
11-8-2007
18
National Indicators
11-8-2007
19
Regional Indicators
11-8-2007
20
Enterprise Indicators
11-8-2007
21
11-8-2007
22
Innovation Indicators Are Evolving
(slowly)
1st Generation
Input
Indicators
2nd Generation
Output
indicators
3rd Generation
Innovation
Indicators
4th Generation
Process
Indicators
(1950s-60s)
(1970s-80s)
(1990s)
(2000 + emerging
focus)
• R&D
expenditures
• S&T personnel
• Capital
• Tech intensity
•
•
•
•
Patents
Publications
Products
Quality change
• Innovation
surveys
• Indexing
• Benchmarking
innovation
capacity
Source: Milbergs and Vonortas, Measurement to Insight,
a paper prepared for the National Innovation Initiative
11-8-2007
• Knowledge
• Intangibles
• Demand and
outputs
• Clusters and
networks
• Management
practices
• Risk/Return
• System Dynamics
23
What Did We Learn?
• Like human health no single indicator captures innovation’s
changing nature and multiple features.
• And report frameworks differ widely, no consensus
• Measures are for manufacturing not service sector
• Available indicators dominated by input R&D and Talent factors
• Connection between inputs to outcomes is weak and non-linear
• Output indicators focus on economic measures, not quality of life
• Sparse “hard” indicators for industry management practices
• Limited “soft” indicators on knowledge content, culture, intangibles,
global innovation patterns, creativity, skill requirements
• Timeliness, accessibility and presentation format needs
considerable improvement
11-8-2007
24
Measurement Issues
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Knowledge as assets
Global trade in tasks
Service sector innovation
Entrepreneurship
Intangibles
Linkages (beyond geographic clusters)
Innovation management practices
Relationship of indicators to policy
The national mindset and media
11-8-2007
25
Commerce Advisory Committee
Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century
INNOVATION DATA COLLECTION
· Improvements in service sector data
· Improvement in measurement of intangibles (including intellectual property)
· Leverage understanding of innovation through expanded sharing of and access to existing
data in firms
STRUCTURE OF THE NATONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS
· Development of annual, industry-level measures of total factor productivity
· Creation of a national innovation account by BEA as a satellite account
· Publish economic data based on data on firms as well as establishments to provide more
meaningful estimate of employment in innovation occupations
NEW INNOVATION OUTCOME MEASURES
· Development of a firm level measure of innovation intensity such as the ratio of annual
revenue from products launched in the last three years to total annual revenue
· Development of a market share based measures
· Development of a national index of innovation aggregating different measures
INNOVATION RESEARCH
· Assessment of the effect of collaboration and partnerships on innovation
· Analysis of administrative records and survey data to identify entrepreneurial start-ups and
study their early life cycle
· Easier access to and analysis of publicly available firm data
· Identification of drivers of and impediments to innovation
11-8-2007
26
Innovation Competitions
• Demand side incentive
• Expands range of ideas
(e.g. Solar Decathlon)
• Attracts innovators
around the world
• Inspires students
• Empowers entrepreneurs
• Raises public awareness
of exemplary designs,
products and services
Aachen Innovation Prize
11-8-2007
27
Concluding Points
• US innovation policy is an incomplete
cocktail—boosting inputs not outcomes.
• National Innovation Dashboard: toward the
right metrics and value creation
• Solve “wicked problems” with innovation
ecosystems
• Innovation President essential to lead at
national and global level.
11-8-2007
28
Questions, comments and insights
Egils Milbergs
www.innovationecosystems.com
www.innovate.typepad.com
[email protected]

Innovation Ecosystem

Transcription

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