york`s story of place - City of York Council

Transcription

YORK’S STORY OF PLACE
A high-level summary of York’s evidence base
Produced for the refresh of the Sustainable Community Strategy
DECEMBER 2010
1
DRAFT This is York - Evidence Base
Contents Page
1.
2.
3.
Introduction ..................................................................... 3
Overview: This is York .................................................... 4
Location and Infrastructure ............................................. 7
3.1 Geography .................................................................... 7
3.2 Population ..................................................................... 8
3.3 York’s Unique Historic Built Environment ................... 10
3.4 Transport .................................................................... 11
3.5 Housing ...................................................................... 12
3.6 Voluntary and Community Sector ............................... 13
4. The communities and neighbourhoods of York ............. 15
4.1 Understanding York’s Communities ............................ 15
4.2 Population Distribution ................................................ 17
4.3 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) ............................. 18
4.4 Poverty and Inequality ................................................ 19
4.5 Household Income ...................................................... 19
4.6 The neighbourhoods and communities of York........... 20
4.7 Housing Need ............................................................. 22
4.8 Crime and Community Safety ..................................... 25
4.9 Health and social care ................................................ 27
4.10 Education .................................................................. 31
4.11 Culture and Leisure .................................................. 31
5. York’s Economy ............................................................ 33
5.1 York’s Local Economic Role ....................................... 33
5.2 A Strong Economy ...................................................... 34
5.3 Attracting Inward Investment ...................................... 37
5.4 Service Sector Growth ................................................ 37
5.5 Employment and Worklessness.................................. 39
5.6 Skills and Training ...................................................... 41
5.7 Higher Education ........................................................ 41
5.8 York’s Commuting Links ............................................. 43
6. Climate – Driver of Change ........................................... 45
6.1 The Climate Change Challenge in York ...................... 45
6.2 Reducing Carbon emissions ....................................... 46
6.3 Adapting to Climate Change ....................................... 47
2
1.
Introduction
This document draws together data and research from a wide range
of national and local sources, which is referenced and available to
download on the City of York Council website, www.york.gov.uk.
The document highlights issues that will be important to the future
development of the city and in identifying priorities for the next
Sustainable Community Strategy.
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2.
Overview: This is York
The city of York offers a superb quality of life to residents,
welcomes millions of visitors and has a thriving economy. It also
has a distinct combination of scale, physical heritage, unbroken
historical lineage, green space, social and cultural activities and
academic excellence. Put simply the overall quality of life and
sense of place that the city offers defines its distinctiveness and
provides it with a competitive advantage.
York…..
•
is a vibrant and cosmopolitan city with an international brand
and reputation;
•
has a rich history, drawing over 7 million visitors a year with the
busiest national museum outside London and acts as a regional
gateway;
•
has two universities, one of which is recognised as being within
the top world 100;
•
is one of the best connected cities nationally.
Economically, York…..
• Has a strong economy, including major employment sectors in
public services, financial services, catering and tourism;
• Has an increasingly modern and dynamic economy and as a
nationally designated Science City has a growing Science and
Technology base, bringing the need for new skills and learning
opportunities;
• Has a high employment rate and despite the recession,
unemployment remains low;
• Has average resident earnings that are lower than the national
average;
• Has a highly qualified workforce, with a significantly higher
proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 2, 3
and 4 than the regional or national average;
•
•
•
•
•
Has a strong, independent labour market, which does not
depend on Leeds as a source of employment for its residents;
With York Northwest, has one of the largest and most exciting
developments capable of making an economic impact regionally
and beyond. The site has the potential to be an outstanding
development of national significance (with its Accelerated
Development Zone potential);
Has house prices that exceed the regional average and are just
below the national average, with private sector rents more than
100% higher than weekly rents in the social sector. Making the
move from rent to buy difficult;
Has two universities that between them generate over 10% of
all jobs in the York Unitary Authority area, with a total income
gain associated with their presence of £388 million;
With major developments forthcoming at Heslington East
(university) Castle/Piccadilly, Hungate, Terry’s, Nestlé South
and Derwenthorpe, will further the ability to build on York’s
regional significance.
Socially, York…..
• Is experiencing substantial population growth, with projections
that between the base date of 2006 and 2031 there will be a
30% population increase, with anticipated increases in the older
age brackets and mirroring the national trend of an ageing
population. This would bring the projected population for York
by 2031 to 249,500;
• Enjoys high levels of civic participation and satisfaction from
residents regarding York as a good place to live;
• Has levels of deprivation that are decreasing, however there are
pockets of deprivation in Westfield, Clifton, Hull Road, Guildhall
and Heworth Wards that fall within the 20% most deprived in
England;
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•
•
•
•
•
Is a safe place to live, with overall crime rates falling
consistently in recent years to below regional and national
averages;
Has good life expectancy rates, with average life expectancy at
birth higher than the regional and national averages;
Has high rates of educational attainment, compared to the
regional and England averages;
Is conscious of its changing ethnic population and keen to
embrace this as an opportunity;
Has a thriving third sector, with over 1,000 groups working in the
city and contributing 1.5-3% of GDP.
Environmentally, York…..
• Is one of only five historic centres in England that has been
designated as an Area of Archaeological Importance;
• Has bid to be included on the UK tentative list of world heritage
sites based on the quality of the city’s archaeological deposits;
• Has a transport network that faces a substantial increase in the
level of demand for it over the next 25 years;
• Has carbon emissions from end users that have begun to fall
(Per capita reduction of 13% from 2005 - 2008);
• Is environmentally aware, though keen to do much more to
protect the environment and engage in the climate change
agenda by looking to reduce the average resident’s carbon
footprint by 80% by 2050.
In considering York’s future a range of ‘givens’ exist. These include:
• York is going to grow;
• The special characteristics of York – built and natural
environment – must be enhanced;
• Our total population will grow and its composition will change;
• The level of inward commuting will continue to increase;
• We will need to plan beyond our boundaries with partners in
order to address our housing and skills needs;
• We will need to respond to fiscal and capacity changes.
The major challenges presented by these planned and predicted
developments include:
• How York can strive for sustainability, tackle climate change and
conserve its special qualities and develop economically and
physically;
• How to grow the local economy in a smart and sustainable way,
with organic growth of existing businesses being particularly
vital;
• To plan for the impact of the city’s changing demographic
profile, particularly in terms of the ageing and growing ethnic
population;
• Ensuring all residents and neighbourhoods share in the city’s
economic, environmental and social well-being;
• Making sure that skills gaps and low aspiration are addressed to
minimise economic differences and ensure that local employers
have a workforce with the required skill levels;
• How housing, especially low cost/affordable and family housing,
can be provided within the city and beyond to meet expected
economic and population growth;
• How to continue to improve quality of life, health and well-being
and high levels of safety;
• How to improve travel and transport to address congestion and
increase connectivity and accessibility;
• How best to develop key sites to provide for the long term
sustainable future of the city;
• How York positions itself within the Leeds City Region and York
and North Yorkshire sub-region;
• How to access resources to drive ambitions when the city has a
low resource base, including investment in the public realm and
infrastructure;
• How to rebalance the economy by driving private sector growth
and capitalising on an enterprise culture;
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•
•
•
•
As a net importer of workers, to develop the city’s role in
influencing with partners the learning and skills needs of
individuals from York’s hinterland;
To understand the policy implications of ‘Big Society’ for York
and embrace the opportunities emerging from de-regulation,
empowering neighbourhoods, enhancing low carbon growth and
sustainable communities;
How to develop the city’s cultural and creative ‘offering’;
To assess our capacity to deliver priorities for the residents of
the city across partners and organisations through shared and
joined up services and to review our approach to performance
and data sharing.
•
To link the LDF with other investment and delivery strategies in
the city (e.g. the Local Transport Plan; the Local Investment
Plan developed with the Homes and Communities Agency; the
major schools capital investment programmes etc);
•
The impact of changed planning policies from the new coalition
government. In line with the new ‘localism’ agenda, the abolition
of Regional Spatial Strategies and allowing local authorities to
set their own housing targets. There is also a stronger focus on
protecting the greenbelt.
In terms of the physical development of the city, a great deal of
progress has been made on the Local Development Framework
(LDF) over the last few years. Consequently, subject to suitable
resources being in place and political endorsement, the council
could have an adopted Core Strategy in place by June 2011 and a
full suite of LDF documents in place by April 2012, which will
effectively form the physical manifestation of the Sustainable
Community Strategy. When the City Centre Area Action Plan
(AAP) is adopted (early 2012), it will be the first comprehensive plan
for the city centre since the Esher Report of the late 1960’s.
Key issues in developing the LDF through to adoption will be:
•
Ensuring the right infrastructure (physical, social, health,
education, emergency services etc) and public realm is
identified to meet the long term needs arising out of new
development;
•
To explore opportunities to share facilities between service
providers (linked to Total Place and Total Capital agendas).
The City Centre AAP in particular may provide some
opportunities;
•
Exploring how infrastructure can be delivered at a time of
tightening public finances (including how developer contributions
such as S106 agreements can help);
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3.
Location and Infrastructure
3.1 Geography
The City of York local authority area covers approximately 105
square miles (272 square kilometres). It is characterised by a
compact urban area surrounded by several smaller settlements.
The compactness of the main urban area is a key feature of the
city. The close relationship of the city to its surrounding villages is
also a key element of York’s character. This relationship is not just
about the distance between the settlements but also their size.
The landscape of York is broadly characterised as relatively flat and
low lying agricultural land dominated by the wide flood plain of the
River Ouse, rising slightly to the East. The Rivers Ouse, Foss and
Derwent are important green corridors as well as important historic
determinants to the city’s location. They do however make flooding
a concern following the severe floods in 1982 and more recently in
2000.
The setting of York is characterised by open approaches leading
towards the city, as shown in Figure 1. This series of green wedges
enable long views to be experienced from the outskirts towards
important city landmarks, such as York Minster, which is the key
defining feature of the skyline of York. The open approaches
enable the city to be experienced within its wider setting
establishing a close relationship between the urban area, green
wedges, surrounding countryside and the villages.
Figure 1: Green infrastructure including nature conservation sites
Within a relatively small area the city boasts a range of sites and
habitats which provide for some of Britain’s rarest breeding birds
(e.g. Corncrake, Wood Lark and Tree Pippit) and a diverse range of
plant life, recognised as being of exceptional nature and
conservation value. They include ancient flood meadows, speciesrich grasslands, lowland heath, woodlands and wetlands. The area
is also home to a variety of European protected species including
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bats, great crested newts, otters and other rare species such as the
Tansy Beetle.
York has eight Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). Two of
which (Strensall Common and Derwent Ings) are also of
international importance. In addition to the statutory sites of
international and national importance, there are 86 non-statutory
sites of importance for nature conservation and 4 local nature
reserves – Hob Moor, Clifton Backies, Acomb Wood and Meadow
and St Nicholas Fields.
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89 1
90+ 1
13.8
12.8
11.2
11.1
11.1
8.3
7.8
6.5
5.0
3.3
1.4
6.9
6.2
5.5
5.5
5.4
3.9
3.5
2.9
2.0
1.2
0.3
6.9
6.5
5.7
5.6
5.8
4.5
4.2
3.7
3.0
2.1
1.1
3.2 Population
1
The 2008 revised mid year estimate gives York a population of
194,900. This represents 3.8% of the total population for Yorkshire
and Humber and is the highest population percentage in
comparison to neighbouring North Yorkshire authorities.
The mid year estimate figures are based upon the resident
population of an area and includes all people who usually live there,
whatever their nationality. The figures also include people who have
arrived from outside the UK where their stay in the UK is 12 months
or more, students at their term-time address and those within the
armed forces stationed within the UK.
ALL AGES
0
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
1
Persons
Males
Females
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
194.9
94.8
100.1
2.1
7.6
9.0
9.7
13.1
20.2
16.1
11.9
13.5
1.0
3.9
4.6
4.9
6.4
10.3
8.5
6.0
6.6
1.0
3.7
4.4
4.8
6.7
10.0
7.6
5.9
6.9
The accuracy of the two eldest age groups 85-89, 90+ will be affected mainly by the
accuracy of age reporting at death. If there are small numbers in the 90+ age groups
then only the totals for these two age groups have been supplied (under the 85-89
column) and a " - " is shown in the 90+ column.
Table 1: 2008 revised Mid Year Estimate
The figures show that currently there is a slightly higher percentage
of females to males at 51.5% to 48.5% respectively. This is
particularly significant for people aged over 70 when the amount of
females to males is considerably higher at 14.1% compared to
9.9.% respectively.
The data also shows that the highest represented age cohort is for
20-24 year olds (10.4%) followed by 25-29 year olds, which may be
explained through the presence of two universities and other higher
education establishments. 69% of the population is also of working
age (aged between 15-64). York is one a few authorities within the
UK to have a high percentage of residents who are of working age.
York also has a lower proportion of 0-15 year olds.
York has seen strong population growth over the past decade.
Between 1997 and 2007, the population grew at an annual rate of
1.0 percent, in advance of the national average of 0.4 percent.
The latest population projection data for York shows that between
the base date of 2006 and 2031 there will be a 30% population
increase, 23% of which is expected to take place between 2010 and
Released by the Office of National Statistics 13th May 2010.
8
2031. In comparison, the Yorkshire and Humber total population is
expected to increase by 23% overall.
2016
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
On average York is expecting a population increase of 2,060 people
per annum between 2010 and 2031. The increase of people at the
beginning of the period is anticipated to be higher per annum than
towards the end when a stabilising of the population increase is
apparent. This would bring the projected population for York by
2031 to 249,500.
The graphs below set out how the population structure for York will
look in the future.
15
10
5
0
Males
5
10
15
5
10
15
5
10
Female
2001 Census
90 and over
85 to 89
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
0 to 4
2021
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Males
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15
10
5
0
Females
Males
2030
2010
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15
10
5
15
0
Males
Female
5
Female
10
15
10
5
0
Males
Female
15
9
The population pyramids show that the population structure for York
remains fairly constant up to 2031. What is apparent however, is
that the age cohorts which are expected to increase the most are
for people aged 80-84 (68% increase) and 85 plus (111% increase).
This increase will be consistent with the anticipated increase in life
expectancy and the national trend of an ageing population.
rate remains lower than the indicated birth rate. There will be a
peak for the region between 2021 and 2026 in terms of natural
change whereby after this point, the net figure starts to decline due
to a stabilising birth rate and increase in predicted deaths.
3.3 York’s Unique Historic Built Environment
York’s history has provided a complex mosaic of buildings and
streets unique in character. The importance of York is highlighted
by the city’s status as one of only five historic centres in England
that has been designated as an Area of Archaeological Importance.
Its wealth of historic buildings include: York Minster, England’s
largest (surviving) medieval church and the largest Gothic
Cathedral in Northern Europe; around 2000 listed buildings of which
242 (13%) are Grade 1 and 2* and 21 scheduled monuments in the
city including the City Walls, York Castle, Clifford’s Tower and St
Mary’s Abbey. The city also has 4 registered historic parks and
gardens, which include the Museum Gardens and Rowntree Park.
There will also be an increase of people living in York between the
ages of 25 to 40 through the years until 2031, particularly for people
in their early 30s. The pyramids illustrate that between 2001 and
2010 there has been an anticipated increase in people aged 20-24
and 25-29. This may be connected to expansions at the universities
and may also represent young professionals staying within the city
and becoming employed.
In terms of the male to female split, the data shows that there is
consistently a higher amount of females compared to males up until
2016. After this point in time, the amount of males is expected to be
higher than females. This is also mirrored within the regional data.
Natural change is the net population difference between births and
deaths. In York the rate of natural change has been around 400
people per annum. This rate is set to increase in the future as
deaths are predicted to remain fairly constant as the amount of
births increase. Similarly, regional projections show that the death
For over two millennia, York has been an important city both
politically and economically. Founded by the Romans in 71AD as a
major strategic fortress, York developed into the capital of the
northern province of Britain. The Vikings, who occupied the city in
866AD created a great trading centre with links right across Europe.
Following the conquest of 1066, William the Conqueror built a
castle at York firstly at the confluence of the Foss and the Ouse and
then at the area now known as Baile Hill. During the medieval
period, economically and politically, York was England’s second
city, with the Minster achieving its present form in a long building
campaign that lasted from the early thirteenth century to the late
fifteenth century. By the eighteenth century although York was no
longer the economic power it had been, it was a social centre
unrivalled by other northern cities. In the nineteenth century York’s
economic fortunes and regional and national importance again rose
when the railways came to the city.
The city submitted a bid for inclusion on the UK Tentative List of
World Heritage Sites to the Department of Culture Media and Sport
(DCMS) in June 2010. The application will be assessed by a panel
of experts before the final tentative list is announced in 2011. UK
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nominations for World Heritage Site status will be put to the
UNESCO World Heritage Committee from the new Tentative List
commencing in 2012.
The bid was based on York's unique archaeological conditions, the
quality of the archaeological deposits and the preservation of
organic materials in waterlogged conditions. The proposed
boundary for the World Heritage site would coincide with the
Central Historic Core Conservation Area, but will be extended to
include important archaeological areas and cemeteries at Hungate,
St George's Fields, Holgate Dock, and along the main routes into
the walled city.
Much of the unique attractiveness of the city as a place to live, work
and visit arises from its historical and cultural assets and the special
relationships between its buildings, streets, squares and open
spaces. Design and conservation issues are a very important
consideration for the City of York and maintaining its special
character is paramount.
3.4 Transport
York currently faces a range of traffic issues mainly resulting from
population growth and increased use of the private car. The effect
of this growth in York on the city’s transport network may require
improvements to key roads such as the Outer Ring Road. York will
face increasing traffic and transport related issues if population
growth results in increasing use of the private car.
Transport Network
York has a history associated with the railway. It has access to
several high quality long distance networks and operations (e.g.
Cross Country, Grand Central, East Coast) that serve the rest of the
country. Within the national rail network York is in a good central
position being mid way between London and Edinburgh. York
station has good facilities, plans for future enhancement and is in a
central position within the city. The local rail links, however, are not
abundant within the City of York area and the periphery authorities.
The only two stations in the authority area are York and Poppleton
stations. The level of service on the section of the Harrogate line
that includes Poppleton is of an hourly frequency during the day. In
addition the train speeds, line restrictions and therefore journey
times on this line are also slow and changeable making this an
unattractive choice of transport between York, Harrogate and the
stations in between and beyond. There is large demand for the rail
link between Leeds and York now and this is predicted to grow into
the future.
Future development areas in relation to the local rail function in
York is the ongoing investigation into tram train technology on the
Harrogate line and also the potential to include York into Metrocard
boundaries (mainly West Yorkshire) in a similar fashion to
Harrogate, if deemed advantageous. There is also the continued
investigation into a new rail station at Haxby to the north of York.
York’s bus network has remained relatively stable in terms of its
geographic coverage, following major changes to the network in
2001. There are several cross-boundary inter-urban bus services,
mostly provided commercially. Most bus routes in York follow a
radial pattern and one national operator dominates the operation
(First). Included within this network are five Park & Ride service
routes around the outer ring road. As a major tourist destination,
York also has a tour bus network around the city centre.
York currently has a network of approximately 145km of cycle
routes, this comprises of 85km of off-road paths and 60km of onroad lanes. As part of the ‘Cycling City York’ (2009-2011) project
many of the on-road lanes have been widened where possible to
improve the level of provision. Across the city there are also
somewhere in the region of 2,500 formal cycle parking spaces.
There is an extensive network of pedestrian routes, especially in the
urban and suburban areas. Footway and footpath provision tends
to be lower in the outlying villages. Several of the public rights of
way leading out from the urban area to the outlying villages were
severed when the outer ring road was built and may as a result
have discouraged use of some of these paths since.
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The road network comprises of 754km of carriageway and 86
bridges. In addition to this 21km of the A64 trunk road is within the
York authority boundary and is the Highways Agency’s
responsibility.
York's transport network faces a substantial increase in level of
demand for it over the next 25 years. Much of this demand comes
from developments that are already committed but have yet to be
built. Other demand comes from target growth in housing and
employment that is required to take place in the city. The challenge
is to accommodate the predicted levels of growth whilst maintaining
a level of service for existing users of the network. The current
highway network is already congested and public transport mainly
uses the same road space as other traffic. Much of the network is
constrained by historic buildings, leaving little opportunity for
highway improvements. The level of congestion in peak periods
means that each new vehicle trip on the network has the impact of
four and the peak periods are spreading. For every 1000 new
vehicle trips made on the network the average delay is increasing
by over 7%.
Connectivity
There are several different regions and areas which influence the
connectivity of York. York is within the Yorkshire and the Humber
region of the United Kingdom and also sits to the far North-East of
the Leeds City Region and has it’s own ‘travel to work’ area. Leeds
is the main centre of employment in the LCR and therefore the
single largest destination, drawing from a pool of high earning
individuals living in the northern sector of the City Region
(principally, Harrogate, Wetherby and York).
Extensive analysis has been undertaken to assess accessibility
within York to key locations, services and facilities for employment,
education, health and leisure. Approximately 50% of people within
the York boundary are within five minutes walk of a frequent bus
service. The central area also offers cyclists excellent access
across the city within half an hour. Many of the villages just outside
the outer ring road can be cycled to in half an hour.
York needs to be connected to an airport for tourism and business
purposes. It has been suggested that York needs to be 45 minutes
journey time by public transport to one airport. Currently only Leeds
Bradford Airport is accessed within 45 minutes car journey time and
considerably longer by public transport.
York’s Local Transport Plan (2006-2011) identifies traffic
congestion, and its associated air quality and safety problems, as
the single most important issue facing the city. It suggests that
without further significant action to encourage greater use of
alternative modes of travel and tackling the increasing use of the
car, the city faces a future with a congested road network.
It highlights that by 2011 traffic levels are forecast to increase by
14%, with this figure doubling by 2021 and that this will affect not
only the quality of life for the residents of York, but also the ability of
the city to attract new jobs, investment and tourism. These issues
can currently be observed with traffic congestion occurring during
the peak hours when people are travelling to or from work and at
weekends with shopping/leisure traffic. Associated problems such
as the impacts on air quality can also be identified.
3.5 Housing
There were nearly 77,000 households in York at the time of the
2001 census. Since this time the number of households has
increased to an estimated 87,000 (20092).
Information from the Census shows that two person households
were in the majority in 2001 and that as the number of people per
household increases over two, the number of households
decreases. The exception to this is single person households
which had the second highest number at the time of the census.
Census category
Number of
Households
% of all
households
All Households
One person
76920
100
2
2006 based household projections, ONS (2009)
12
Pensioner
Other
One family and no others:
Pensioners
Couple with no children
Couple with one dependent child
Couple with 2 or more dependent
children
Couple: all children non-dependent
Lone parent household with 1
dependent child
Lone parent household with 2 or
more dependent children
Lone parent households: all
children non dependent
Other households:
With one dependent child
With 2 or more dependent children
All student
All pensioner
Other
11665
11842
Table 3: 2006 based household projections – Source ONS 2008
15
15
7605
15200
5887
8987
10
20
8
12
4436
2136
6
3
1943
3
2050
3
578
497
1080
250
2743
1
1
1
0
4
The data shows that there is a significant trend for cohabiting
couples in the future. Cohabiting couples are set to increase by
125% between 2004 and 2031 compared to a 9% increase in
married couples. There is also a growing trend for multiple person
households, which is also set to increase by 65% and set to be the
largest household type from 2026. This will take into account
changing lifestyle trends, such as homes of multiple occupation
inhabited by young professionals as well as communal
establishments.
Table 3 shows that the average household size decreases
significantly in the future from 2.27 persons in 2004 to 2.08 persons
in 2031. The main driver for this is the increase in single person
households, which is set to increase by 60% between 2006 and
2031. In 2001 single person households accounted for 30% of the
total households, of which nearly 50% were pensioners. The
number of people over 60 living in a single person household is set
to increase as life expectancy is anticipated to extend.
Table 2: York Household data from the 2001 census
3.6 Voluntary and Community Sector
The number of households between 2009 and 2031 is expected to
increase by 30,000, which is a 30% increase and a 52% increase
on the 2001 census figure.
2006 based
household
projections
York UA*
2004
2006
2009
2011
2016
2021
2029
2031
80
82
87
90
97
104
114
117
Household Types
married couple
cohabiting
couple
36
35
35
35
36
37
38
38
8
9
11
12
14
16
17
18
lone parent
other multiperson
5
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
25
26
28
29
33
36
42
43
one person
6
7
7
8
8
9
10
11
181
186
194
199
211
221
238
242
2.27
2.25
2.23
2.21
2.16
2.13
2.09
2.08
Private
household
population
Average
household size
Over the last ten years there has been a drive from central
government to create a local environment which will enable the
Voluntary Sector to thrive. Various policies and programmes, such
as Futurebuilders and Capacitybuilders [ChangeUp], have been
introduced. These have been aimed at supporting the Voluntary
and Community Sector to develop its capacity and to develop the
infrastructure support required to ensure the delivery of quality
services.
The recent change in Government has led to the replacement of
the Office for the Third Sector with the Office for Civil Society.
Some of the early policies of the new coalition government indicate
a continued focus on the importance of the Voluntary Sector particularly co-operatives and social enterprises.
York’s voluntary sector contributes enormously to the economic,
social and cultural life of the city at every level. Estimates suggest
13
that there are over 1,000 groups working within the city, delivering a
wide range of services to local people. Besides making an
important contribution to the quality of life of York’s citizens, the
estimated revenue generated by the sector in York contributes 1.5 3% of GDP in the area.
f.
Achieve acknowledgement that 'sharp end' service
providers cannot fight their own corner whilst also
providing services;
g. Provide advocacy and support for the most vulnerable
whose vulnerability is increased by their inability to fight
for their own provision needs.
The Voluntary and Community Sector has a significant role as:
• An employer and in supporting progression towards
employment by provision of training and volunteering
opportunities;
• A key contributor to cohesion and equalities: building social
capital and strong community networks;
• A strategic partner shaping local priorities and developing plans
to meet those priorities;
• A service deliverer responding to local and diverse needs;
• An influencer of policies and ways of working by informing,
providing the 'stories' of experience as well as, and illuminating,
data and also by liaison and offering secondment opportunities
to work in the sector;
• A lobbying body, emphasising the necessity of adequate
funding to enable clear understanding of how, what and why (as
it were) the sector has to be funded;
• An enabler of community representation by encouraging local
service users, especially those that are vulnerable and
marginalised, to get involved in decision making.
Key Development Aims for the Voluntary Sector:
a. Improve access to good quality, affordable infrastructure
support and premises;
b. Support the Sector to achieve the highest standards when
involving volunteers;
c. Establish clear processes for the Sector to be effectively
represented in decision-making processes;
d. Establish commissioning and funding processes that are
transparent, efficient and reflect local needs;
e. Amalgamate organisations where there are similar
interests and clarify the various organisations and their
interests so that the council can more easily identify what
services are already provided;
14
4.
The communities and neighbourhoods of York
4.1 Understanding York’s Communities
York has diverse communities and neighbourhoods and a vibrant
mixture of urban and rural lifestyles. However a local area is defined
(i.e. ward, neighbourhood or community) each has its own
characteristics, attributes and challenges.
Each year, residents of all wards across the city are invited to
develop a neighbourhood action plan. A Neighbourhood Action Plan
analyses the needs of a neighbourhood, recognises specific local
issues and develops a planned approach to tackling these issues in
partnership with the community and service providers. The
Neighbourhood Action Plan for each ward has three or four
ambitions which come under various headings. Popular themes are:
•
•
•
•
Cleaner, greener communities
More inclusive communities
Road safety and improvements
Safety and crime reduction
PersonicX Geo has identified that higher clusters of particular
groups within York, although each group does not account for more
than 5% of the population as a whole and they may not be clustered
to a specific local area, The characteristics are:
•
Adventurous Students - This is generally a young, well
qualified group, currently on low to average incomes but
with higher aspirations.
•
City Singletons - Often these are single households with
the majority being in their late twenties/early thirties in more
junior management roles earning them average salaries.
They are well educated but have a desire to focus on
obtaining more management skills to help further their
careers.
•
Gardeners World - A solid and dependable image is
portrayed by these households. They have mid range
income levels and pension provision is a priority. Most are
home owners in semi-detached properties and they tend to
be married.
•
Companionship and Coaches - These married
homeowners, some of which have been recently widowed
are living in semi-detached properties or bungalows. With
household incomes under £15k, many are now retired.
•
Financially Savvy Retirees - This affluent segment is
mostly retired, but those still working are in
education/medical services or middle management. They
have prepared well for their future and have a wide range of
saving and investment products.
Recent data collected by PersonicX Geo3 has identified
characteristics of groups people by identifying behaviour patterns.
These labels do not suggest that that all people within a group are
the same but that there are significant numbers of people with
similar behavioural characteristics.
In particular, this data can sometimes identify a social geography
built upon people with similar behavioural characteristics living
closely together.
3
PersonicX Geo is the latest development in Acxiom’s segmentation
portfolio that gives marketers a new perspective on customer behaviour.
PersonicX Geo delivers a framework to heighten the effectiveness of
strategic planning and customer insight initiatives.
15
Life in York
There are high levels of satisfaction from residents regarding their
local area/neighbourhood, 86%, and the City of York 87%.4 York is
considered to be a very welcoming and friendly area with 79.4% of
residents who agree that local area is a place where people from
different backgrounds get on well together.
student can make it more difficult for them to integrate into their
community.
The City of York is made up of 22 neighbourhoods/ electoral wards:
Figure 2: City of York Council Ward Boundary Map
The most recent Place Survey Results from 2008/09 found that
55.1% of residents, and 21% of BME residents, feel they belong to
their immediate neighbourhood. City of York Council commissioned
Qa Research to undertake a piece of consultation with groups of
local residents to examine the reason for a lower sense of
belonging to their neighbourhood.
The Qa Research report identified that there were a number of
factors that seemed to influence the sense of belonging more than
others. Length of residence was the most apparent. Respondents
from the established communities group spoke of a strong sense of
community in York compared with other places that had lived. Also,
some individuals in the over 50s group clearly had a strong
emotional connection to York based around raising their children in
York and memories of their own childhood. Religious belief was
another key factor linked to a sense of belonging, particularly for the
BME respondents in the new and established communities groups.
A theme of ‘change’ arose in the over 50s group. Some
respondents felt that their sense of belong had diminished in light of
the changing nature of their community. The theme of ‘acceptance’
was also discussed in the groups of new and established
communities. Generally, respondents felt that York was accepting
of those from different cultures and those who had experienced
difficulties considered that occasional difficulty as an inevitable part
of life. Traveller respondents had encounted some specific
difficulties with acceptance and students talked about the tension
that sometimes existed between students and neighbours in the
community. Some students also felt that feeling that stereotypes of
4
Place Survey 2008 and talkabout Survey Oct 2009.
16
Civic Participation
York enjoys high levels of civic participation.
The City of York Council has 47 elected members. At present, the
Council is described as a ‘hung’ or ‘balanced’ council with a Liberal
Democrat Executive. Local elections are held every four years.
Figure 3: Proportion of population by ward
According to the Place Survey results 2008/09, 31.7% of residents
agreed that they felt they could influence decisions affecting their
local area. Fewer residents from the BME communities felt they
were well informed about how to get involved in local decision
making (9%).
12.7% of residents belong to groups which make decisions that
affect their local area and 23% have given unpaid help to any
groups, clubs or organisations at least once per month over the last
12 months.
Children and Young People also enjoy and make significant
contribution to civic life in the City. The York Youth Council has
become established within the city and has sent representatives to
the UK Youth Parliament. In addition, York has been awarded £1.4
million of Government money to provide volunteering opportunities
for all14-16 year olds in York and in 2009 more young people than
ever took part in the Duke of Edinburgh award scheme (CYPP
Refresh 2010).
4.2 Population Distribution
Figure 3 shows that there is an indicative split as to where the
majority of the population live within the York authority. It shows the
highest populations on the northwest side of the authority as
opposed to the lowest population concentration to the south eastern
part of York.
Indicative north/south split
in terms of where the
majority of people live in
York
17
In addition, the demographics of York’s population is split across
the city. The majority of children live within the more rural wards, in
particular Strensall, Wheldrake and Skelton, Rawcliffe and
CliftonWithout. The exception to this is the ward of Westfield.
Figure 4: City of York Indices of Multiple Deprivation
The inner wards including Micklegate, Fishergate, Guildhall and
Fulford have the least concentration of children.
In contrast, the areas where there are the highest percentages of
children partly overlap with those areas which have the highest
amount of people aged over 60 such as in Heworth Without and
Fulford.
4.3 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
The Indices of Deprivation are measures of deprivation for every
local authority area in England. The latest data for York was
released in 2007.
The IMD combines a number of indicators across seven domains
(Income, Employment, Health and Disability, Education, Skills and
Training, Barriers to Housing and Services, Living Environment and
Crime) into a single deprivation score and rank for each small
geographical area, or Super Output Area (SOA). There is also an
Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index.
The overall score for York in 2007 showed that the authority ranked
242 out of 352 authorities, where rank 1 represents the most
deprived. This was an improvement on York’s 2004 ranking of 219.
York is made up of 118 super output areas out of a total
of 32,482 in England. Approximately 6,573 households
or 15,082 people live within the 20% most deprived
SOA’s in York.
18
4.4 Poverty and Inequality
Overall York’s levels of deprivation are decreasing and the numbers
of deprived areas in York are reducing5. The number of SOAs
which rank within the top 20% most deprived areas nationally has
decreased from 11 SOAs in 2004 to 8 SOAs in 2007.
York still, however, has 8 SOA's that fall within the most deprived
20% of SOA’s in England, found in 5 wards: Westfield (3), Clifton
(2), Hull Road (1), Guildhall (1) and Heworth (1).
One SOA remains particularly disadvantaged – with Kingsway West
(Westfield) falling within the 10% most deprived areas in England.
General characteristics of these SOAs include:
•
Low levels of skills and qualifications
•
High levels of worklessness – almost ½ (48.6%) of total
claimant benefits live in these areas
•
1/3 of people are income deprived
•
1 in 5 women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64 are employment
deprived
•
Just under half of children in the deprived SOAs live in families
that are income deprived
Groups of people identified by the Inclusive York Forum as being
most excluded or at greatest risk of being excluded include:
•
People with mental ill health, learning difficulties, physical or
sensory impairments
•
Young people in care or living in transient families, young
parents, young people who are bullied, and those who have low
skills or are not in education, employment or training (NEET)
•
Rough sleepers and homeless people
5
•
Carers and people on low incomes
•
People from BME (Black Minority Ethnic) communities, including
asylum seekers, and Travellers
4.5 Household Income
The following data highlights which areas of York are ranked
highest under four categories of income:
• £0-£5000
• £5000-£9,999
• £10,000-£14,999
• £15,000-£19,999
Ward
LSOA
Clifton
Hull Rd
Micklegate
Bishopthorpe
Heworth
Fishergate
Acomb
Westfield
Westfield
Hunt & NE
3350
3399
3416
3341
3386
3363
3335
3447
3448
3410
Household Income Rank (of 118 LSOAs)
£0
£5k£10k - £15k - £0
£9,999 £14,999 £19,999 £19,999
£5k
Rank
7
12
29
18
1
14
6
40
24
2
48
7
7
29
3
41
19
13
25
4
12
16
31
43
5
9
29
36
31
6
61
11
27
10
7
24
27
59
3
8
15
38
59
1
9
26
16
1
71
10
Table 4: Household income rankings £0 - £19,999 - Copyright © Acxiom Ltd
2009. This data may not be reproduced without the express permission of
Acxiom Ltd.
Source: The Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 and 2007
19
Household Income Rank (of 118 LSOA)
£0 - £5,000 Rank
Migration has become an increasingly important component of
demographic change over the last decade and will remain so into
the future. There are 3 main reasons for this: Geopolitical,
Education & Free movement within the Economic Union (EU).
Migration has formed the most significant part of York’s net
population increase.
Ward
LSOA
Heslington
E01013378
1
Clifton
E01013348
2
Hull Road
E01013402
3
Fishergate
E01013364
4
Ethnicity
Holgate
E01013394
5
Guildhall
E01013368
6
Clifton
E01013350
7
Holgate
E01013396
8
Fishergate
E01013363
9
Clifton
E01013349
10
Number
All persons
191800
White British
174500
White Irish
1300
White Other
6600
White non-British TOTAL
7900
Mixed White / Caribbean
500
Mixed White / African
200
Mixed White / Asian
700
Mixed Other
500
Mixed TOTAL
1900
Asian Indian
1500
Asian Pakistani
800
Asian Bangladeshi
600
Asian Other
700
Asian TOTAL
3600
Black Caribbean
400
Black African
700
Black other
100
Black TOTAL
1200
Chinese
1800
Other
1100
Chinese / Other TOTAL
2900
Total BME
17500
Estimated to the nearest 100 people
Table 5: Household Income £0 - £5,000 rankings - Copyright © Acxiom Ltd
2009. This data may not be reproduced without the express permission of
Acxiom Ltd.
4.6 The neighbourhoods and communities of
York
Migration and BME Population
In 2001, the city of York had a very low base of people who were
from a black or ethnic minority (BME) population.
At the time of the Census in 2001, only 4.9% of the population were
not in the category “white British”. At this time the largest non-white
populations lived in the wards of Heslington, Micklegate,
Fishergate and Clifton. The 2006 ONS population projections
subsequently increased the BME population estimate to over 9%.
Parkinson, et al in The State of English Cities (Office of the Deputy
Prime Minister, 2006) identified York as a city “where the minority
ethnic population appears to be growing more rapidly than in most
other areas. This is due in part to key areas of the local economy
(tourism and higher education) depending heavily on involvement in
the local labour market by those from other countries.”
2006 Estimate
%
100%
90.98%
0.68%
3.44%
4.12%
0.26%
0.10%
0.36%
0.26%
0.99%
0.78%
0.42%
0.31%
0.36%
1.88%
0.21%
0.36%
0.05%
0.63%
0.94%
0.57%
1.51%
9.12%
Table 6. York’s BME population – Source ONS 2006 population projections
20
York
This is consistent with Place Survey questions relating to
communication:
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
(Brackets indicated those who identified their ethnicity as white)
•
•
2004
2005
2006
2007
Internatio nal Inflo w per 1000 (so urce:ONS M SU,P EU)
Internatio nal Outflo w per 1000 (so urce:ONS M SU,P EU)
Internal migratio n turno ver per 1000 (so urce:ONS M SU,P EU)
Figure 5. Local Area Migration Indicators, ONS
The largest minority populations have changed from Asian to
Eastern European populations. In Feb 2010, the Joseph Rowntree
Foundation (Gary Craig et al) published Mapping Rapidly Changing
Minority Ethnic Populations: a case study of York noted that two of
York’s largest populations in recent years has been the Polish and
Turkish communities resulting from accession in the EU and
following granted refugee status. It is suggested that the growth in
the “white other” following the accession of eastern European
countries in 2004 and 2009 will be the greatest driver to change in
the total ethnic population leading to a more diverse and multicultural York.
A study of the housing and related needs of the Black and Minority
Ethnic (BME) and Migrant Worker communities in North Yorkshire6
identified communication is a significant barrier. The report noted
that 13.7% of households surveyed contained at least one adult
unable to read to write in English and 77.3% did not have access to
local interpretation services.
6
•
2008
A study of the housing and related needs of the Black and Minority Ethnic (BME)
6
and Migrant Worker (A8 and A2) communities in North Yorkshire (Andy Steele,
Lisa Scullion and Gareth Morris, Salford Housing & Urban Studies Unit, University
of Salford)
22% (46%) feel well informed about local public services
18% (34%) feel well informed about how to complain about
local public services
12% (41%) feel well informed about the standard of service
they should expect from local public services
Isolation is also an issue, 36% of have no family/friends nearby,
25% require support to meet with own ethnic group and 25%
wanted help to understand British culture. In addition, a different
study found that 21% had been a victim of hate crime, and 20%
were fearful of being a victim of hate crime.
Student Populations
In the same JRF report, it was identified that York has a population
of 32,787 students, 11% of which are from the BME communities.
The report states that York “has two universities, both of which are
committed – with particular numerical success in the case of the
University of York – to attracting overseas students. These
populations, while largely transient in relation to a settled population
and thus invisible to most official statistics, nevertheless, impact on
culture, services, profile.”7
7
The report also notes, “in the past decade or so, as universities have realised the
significance of fee income from overseas students, many, including the University
of York, have targeted Hong Kong Chinese students for both undergraduate and
postgraduate study. Continuing growth in higher education and the offering of new
university disciplines (such as law and business studies) have led to a further
widening of ethnic diversity, with, for example, substantial postgraduate students
from a number of Gulf States.”
21
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Transgendered (LGBT) Population
•
There are no local statistics for LGBT people in York, since it was
not included in the 2001 Census. However, the government
estimates that between 5 and 7% of the British population is LGBT.
Therefore, York potentially has an LGBT population of between
9,000 to 13,000 people. Yorkshire MESMAC puts the estimate
higher at 9% which is around 16,500 people.
•
Faith Communities
York
Number
% of total
population
% of people with
a faith
Christian
134,771
74.42%
98.10%
Buddhist
388
0.21%
0.28%
Hindu
347
0.19%
0.25%
Jewish
191
0.11%
0.14%
Muslim
1,047
0.58%
0.76%
Sikh
95
0.05%
0.07%
Other
religions
Total
538
0.30%
0.39%
137,377
75.86%
100.00%
13,714
7.57%
30,003
16.57%
Religion not
stated
No religion
Table 7: York’s Faith – Source 2001 Census
•
house prices exceed the regional average and are just
below the national average;
private sector rents are more than 100% higher than the
weekly rents in the social sector,
moving through the rent/buy gap is difficult and a range of all
house sizes and types (houses and flats) is needed.
The Council has 7,955 homes (Housing Strategy Statistical
Appendix Annual Return 2010) and Housing Associations a further
4,300 approx. Together these make up around 15% of the total
housing stock in the city. In June 2010, the Council’s Housing
Waiting List stood at 3,126 households, including 575 existing
tenants who need a transfer to a more suitable home (Management
Information Team, Housing and Adult Social Services).
Vacancy rates in York are extremely low compared to the regional
and national average, with less than 2% of stock vacant at April
2008. In 2010, approx 650 (0.58%), of total stock had been long
term empty properties, (lowest in sub region).
Housing and Support Need for Older Residents
Fordham Research were commissioned by City of York Council in
September 2009 to undertake a study into the housing and
housing-related support needs of older people (defined as those
aged 55 and over, the qualification age for council older person
services), living in the City of York Council area.
Around 50% (15,000) older person households are underoccupying. The main difficulty reported by older households is
‘difficulty maintaining the home’. About a quarter (7,500
households) reported one or more age-related problem with their
home. There is a substantial shortage of such adaptations for those
who do not require specialist accommodation.
4.7 Housing Need
The Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2007 (SHMA) concludes
that:
• housing need is much higher than was found in the (Interim)
York Housing Needs Studies of 2002 and 2006;
In terms of supply to meet these needs, there is a stock of publicly
owned older persons dwellings. Much of this was built in the 1960s
and 1970’s and is of questionable quality in terms of meeting
modern needs. A similar criticism can be levelled at the specialist
accommodation. Within the City there are 72 homes providing
22
various kinds of care to the elderly: about half private and half
publicly owned.
Fordham Research carried out a calculation of the net need for
specialised accommodation up to 2013/14. If those able to afford
suitable accommodation in the private sector are excluded then the
requirement is 202 affordable units per annum.
Foredham examined financial capacity and the scope for equity
release (cashing in some of the value of the home). Since three
quarters of York’s older people are owners this is a reasonable area
to examine. About a fifth of the lower savings group had less than
£100k of equity and incomes below £200 per week. There is clearly
a lot of scope, and probably a lot of need, for equity release in York.
Both downsizing and down-tenuring are clearly important issues for
older people.
the survey was the need to improve access to services for BME /
migrant workers households and to ensure community cohesion
and integration, given the dispersed and sometimes isolated nature
of BME / migrant worker households across the sub region
Housing tenure - BME households are overrepresented in the
private rented sector and underrepresented in the owner occupied
and social rented sectors.
•
Household size - BME households tend to be larger.
•
Housing Need for Vulnerable Adults
There are fewer housing options for vulnerable groups, such as
those with learning disabilities and there is a need to remove
barriers to certain tenures (private rented sector / home ownership)
for other vulnerable households
•
Housing and Support Needs for BME Residents
A study was undertaken by the University of Salford on behalf of the
North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Partnership8. A key finding from
8 The methodology used involved recruiting 32 community interviewers across the 8 local authority districts
of North Yorkshire. A total of 464 interviews took place with 33% (153) of these being in York. Due to the
nature of the methodology this was not necessarily a true random sample approach and therefore findings
should be seen as indicative of issues facing these groups rather than being seen as representative. Due
to the ever changing nature of the BME / migrant workers community in North Yorkshire the study should
be seen as a snapshot in time. BME population estimates for York were 3.6% (6757) of total population,
rising to 5.5% (11548) by 2030. The biggest ethnic group in York were found to be ‘Chinese’ and ‘Other’ at
16% (25) each whilst ‘White other’ came second at 15% of the York sample. Out of the total of 463
respondents, around 50% came from the 25-39 years age group, with roughly an equal split between male
and female.
4 x more likely to be in this sector than population as a
whole with low home ownership (34% against 75% for
general population) and low social housing (3.5% against
15% for general population).
50% of BME households have 3 or more members against
30% for all general households. Over 12% of BME
households in York have 6 or more members, against a
1.1% for the general population and there are much fewer 1
and 2 person BME households compared to the general
population (30% against 70%)
10% of BME households felt they were living in overcrowded
conditions (based on perception), against 1.3% for general
population (based on objective bedroom standard as
measured in the SHMA).
Cultural needs and housing - Cultural needs are largely being met.
•
85% of BME households felt their home met their cultural
needs. The 15% that said it didn’t cited the absence of
separate toilet and bathroom facilities, separate space for
women and men and larger living rooms for family
gatherings.
Housing related support
• 9.2% of BME households contain a member that receives
some form of support (either from family of externally). The
23
•
York SHMA identified that 16.8% of all York households
contain at least one person with a support need.
92.3% of BME households report that their support needs
were being met.
Migrant Communities
Again, for migrant communities there is overrepresentation in
private rented sector and low owner occupation/social housing
(80% in Private Rented Sector, 2% in Social Rented Sector, 7%
owner occupied, 6% (8 households) in tied accommodation,
vulnerable to economic downturn. There are high levels of
satisfaction with accommodation (92%) but levels of satisfaction
may vary amongst different cultures and communities. In addition,
47% do not know their housing rights/entitlements.
Gypsy and Traveller Housing and Accommodation Needs
There are 3 sites in York with providing 54 pitches for gypsies and
travellers across the sub-region. These are:
•
•
•
James Street City Travellers Site
Osbaldwick Caravan Site
Water Lane Caravan Site
In terms of household formation, sub regional needs assessment
found requirement for additional 36 pitches in York
It is widely acknowledged that York has a fairly high number of
gypsy and traveller caravans compared to the size of the authority
and that sites are required to ensure those people who live in
houses are able to move to pitches should they wish to.
Homelessness
In recent years homelessness services in York have increasingly
focused on tackling the causes of homelessness. As a result there
has been a steady decline in the number of people presenting as
homeless, and an increase in the number of successful
homelessness preventions. As preventions rise the number of
homeless decisions taken by the local authority as a result of a
household presenting as homeless has fallen steadily over the past
three years from 406 in 2007/08 to 207 in 2009/10.
Below is a diagram which highlights the three main causes of
homelessness in 2007/08.
Based upon the fact that there is an estimated 333 households in
York with 54 pitches and it is therefore considered that there must
be 276 households also living in houses.
One of the main traditions of this ethnic group is to travel and this is
becoming increasingly difficult given the shortage of sites for
stopping. From the responses given in the North Yorkshire
assessment it is estimated that 36% of the respondents travel away
for between 2 and 12 weeks and that the amount that travelled for
longer than this was 13%.
It is difficult to make accurate estimations as to the future
requirements of the gypsy and traveller community. The projected
household growth per annum is estimated 3% which is at the lower
end of the national estimate range of 3-4% (CLG, 2007).
24
•
The incidence of homelessness due to mortgage arrears is
low with only 2 (1.5%).
•
Data from the probation service shows that of the 28
offenders returning to York on release, around 50 per cent
expected a problem finding accommodation on release and
around 20 per cent of men from Yorkshire and Humberside
admitted to local prisons were in temporary accommodation
or no fixed abode on admission (Homelessness Strategy
2008-2013).
4.8 Crime and Community Safety
The three main causes of homelessness for 2009/10 were parental
exclusion 77, relationship breakdown 29, loss of assured short hold
tenancy 10 (all other - 15).
In 2009/10, 130 households were accepted as being homeless and
in priority need down from 258 2007/08. 25% of these form 16-17
year olds, again down substantially from 2007/8.
•
There has been a welcome reduction in the number of
households with dependent children living in temporary
accommodation (41 in December 2009) (CYPP Re-Fresh,
2010).
•
Almost half of all households accepted as homeless and in
priority need were lone parent female households and 20
per cent couples with dependant children, largely consistent
with the all England rates.
The One Place report in 2009 reported that York is a safe place to
live. Overall levels of crime have fallen consistently in recent years
and is below regional and national averages. Serious acquisitive
crime has continued to fall and local targets have been achieved.
Targeted action has resulted in significant decreases in crime and
anti-social behaviour in some areas of the city. For example, an
alley-gating campaign resulted in a 68 per cent fall in reported crime
levels in the Clifton area in August and September 2008, compared
with figures for the same period in 2006.
York is one of the largest and truly cycling cities in England, and as
such it will have more cycles than most other cities. With this, and
as expected, York experiences a high volume of cycle thefts making
this a key issue within the city.
Over the past two years there has been an increase in the number
of domestic violence incidents. In 2009/10, there were 2197
incidents of domestic violence in York, and this is compared to 2025
incidents in 2008/09 and in 2009/2010, there were 757 incidents of
Repeat Domestic Violence compared to 696 incidents in 2008/09.
This shows an 8% increase in York between the two years.
However, comparative information suggests York is performing
well. This was a new indicator in 2007/08 and an independent
evaluation of this process by Coordinated Action Against Domestic
Violence (CAADA) stated:
25
York’s "repeats at Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conference’s are
significantly low, this is unusual as the longest running MARACs
typically have a repeat rate over 30% and the national average is
21.5%."
Anti-Social Behaviour
During 2007/8 – 2009/10 an average of 24,000 incidents per year of
anti-social behaviour were reported. Of these, the most often
reported were rubbish/litter and graffiti, noise and general antisocial behaviour including a range of incident types. The number of
neighbour incidents reported to the police average 590 per year.
An Annual Housing Satisfaction Monitor is undertaken in which a
series of questions are asked of 10% of residents. The 2009 survey
reported that, after repairs and the quality of their home, tenants felt
that dealing with ASB was the next highest priority. When tenants
were asked what were the issues in their neighbourhood, the
following were felt to be the most problematic:
•
•
•
•
•
There has been an increase in hospital admissions related to
substance misuse, especially from so-called “legal highs”. However,
The latest data for NI 38 Drug Related Class A Offending suggest
that York is on track to meet this indicator in 2009/10.
However, estimated levels of binge drinking are significantly higher
than the national average, as is the drug abuse in the city.
Car parking
Rubbish / litter
Disruptive teenagers / children
Drug use / dealing
Noisy neighbours
In addition, a small survey was carried out with residents during
Autumn 2009 (226 responses from across the city wards) 57% of
residents said they had had some experienced of ASB within their
neighbourhood and the top three issues identified as problems
were:
• Noise
• Aggressive behaviour
• Alcohol related behaviour
Drug and alcohol abuse is a contributory factor to offending within
the city, including violent crime, sexual assult, domestic violence
and criminal damage.
There are strong links between high levels of youth alcohol
consumption and other risk factors such as youth offending,
teenage pregnancy, truancy, exclusion and illegal drug misuse, but
the precise nature of this relationship is not fully understood.
Youth Offending
Children and young people who at risk of offending or are
participating in criminal activity has contiued to fall by 25% for 2010,
compared with 11% in similar areas (CYPP Refresh 2010). The
2009 One Place report also noted that Children and young people
26
are well supported with reoffending rates of young offenders
supervised by the Youth Offending Team falling by 32 per cent in
2008.
The percentage of young offenders engaging in education and work
is low compared with other similar areas. The number of first-time
entrants into the youth justice system has fallen and young people
in care who offend are well supported and few are involved in
reoffending. Preventive programmes such as the Youth Inclusion
Support Programme (YISP) and targeted youth work are
contributing well to continuing these low numbers. The Youth
Offending Team has become the strongest performing team in the
region, although the dependency on short-term funding presents a
risk to keeping the current performance (One Place Report, 2009).
Reducing the fear of Crime
Reducing the fear of crime has become an increasingly high profile
issue both at National and local level.
In areas where local crime levels are low, it is common for the
community to have unrealistic fears about becoming a victim of
crime. With more performance measures based on public
perception and a single confidence measure for the police, tackling
fear of crime is ever more important. Community safety remains a
priority for residents within the city; of 18 Neighbourhood Action
Plans developed by local communities, 17 contain ambitions around
the theme of community safety. There is recent evidence however
that fewer residents are fearful of crime within the city and more
residents feeling that York is a safe city.
Road Safety
Road injuries and deaths were significantly higher than the national
average (60.2 per 100,000 compared to 51.3 per 100,000) in the
period 2006-08. However recent figures suggest that there was a
large reduction in those killed or seriously injured between 2008
and 2009.
There has been some success in improving road safety, particularly
in more rural areas, which has resulted in a fewer road casualties.
Levels of road traffic collisions, fatalities and injuries are low in York
compared to North Yorkshire. The highest percentage occur on the
trunk road and dual carriageway networks rather than within the city
and its suburbs. This has had a significant impact, most notably in
reducing accidents involving children, where a 50 per cent cut was
achieved in six months in 2007/08.
4.9 Health and social care
General Health and Disability
York has good life expectancy rates. Age standardised rates of all
age all cause mortality are consistently below the England rate for
men and for women, and have dropped significantly since the mid
1990s. Recently the gap between York and England for men has
widened but it has narrowed slightly for women. Given the
comparison to the England and the overall reduction this is not yet a
cause for concern but we will continue to monitor progress carefully.
The difference in overall mortality rates between the most deprived
quintile in York and the average has remained within the LAA limits
with a difference of 30% in 20089.
9
ONS Deaths data
27
1000
England Males
England Females
York Males
York Females
900
DSR per 100,000 population
800
700
600
500
400
300
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Figure 6: All age, all cause mortality (3 year rolling averages)
The Census 2001 highlighted that approximately 30,000 people in
York have a limiting long-term illness, which equated to 16.6% of
the population.
Ward
Area
Acomb
Bishopthorpe
Clifton
Derwent
Dringhouses and
Woodthorpe
Fishergate
Fulford
Guildhall
Haxby and Wigginton
Heslington
Heworth
With a limiting
All
long-term illness % with
People (LLTI)
LLTI
7729
3802
12017
3540
1321
658
2081
612
17.09%
17.31%
17.32%
17.29%
10733
7921
2595
6676
12468
4122
11743
1791
1289
507
1276
2113
302
2126
16.69%
16.27%
19.54%
19.11%
16.95%
7.33%
18.10%
Heworth Without
3786
Holgate
11564
Hull Road
8269
Huntington and New
Earswick
12089
Micklegate
10994
Osbaldwick
3149
Rural West York
10286
Skelton, Rawcliffe and
Clifton Without
12160
Strensall
7862
Westfield
13690
Wheldrake
3899
Total York - 181094
697
1866
1277
18.41%
16.14%
15.44%
2425
1797
598
1390
20.06%
16.35%
18.99%
13.51%
1574
1168
2665
531
30064
12.94%
14.86%
19.47%
13.62%
16.60%
Table 8. York’s population with a limiting long term illness – Source 2001
Census
Life expectancy at birth (2006-2008) for York females was 83.2
years and for York men 79.4 years. These are significantly higher
than the England figures of 82 and 77.9 respectively, with an
increase for men and a very slight decrease for women. However
there remains significantly lower life expectancy in the most
deprived quintile of the city compared to the least deprived.
Infant mortality is not significantly different from the England
average (2006-2008) with a local rate of 4.74 per 1,000 live births,
compared to the England average of 4.8410. The numbers are
fortunately very small so variations can cause large but not
significant fluctuations. The percentage of births that had a low
birth weight (less than 2,500g) was 5.8 in 2008, significantly lower
than the national rate.
Alcohol Consumption
During 2008/9 hospital stays for alcohol related harm were 1400 per
100,000 in York, significantly lower than the England average of
158011. Quarterly monitoring for 2009/10 suggests that levels in
10
11
Source: APHO and Department of Health – Health Profile 2010
Source: As above.
28
In Year 6, 16.6% are at risk of obesity, an increase of 0.1% on the
previous year (2007/08). These figures compare well to national
figures of 9.6% and 18.3% respectively12.
York may be levelling off, which compares well to the national
increasing trend. However, there is much more to be done to
reduce the impact of alcohol on health and reverse the trend over
previous years.
Older People
The overarching vision for older people in York, to be achieved over
the next five years, is one where a higher proportion of older people
remain within the community, having fewer hospital and care home
admissions and are able to enjoy: greater independence; a wider
choice of accommodation options; and greater social engagement.
Teenage Pregnancy
Teenage Pregnancy conception data for 2008 indicates a welcome
decrease in teenage conceptions in the city. The 2008 rate of 34
per thousand females aged 15-17 is very slightly above the 1998
baseline year but is a 25% decrease from 2007. However, latest
aggregated data for 2005-7 shows that there has been a rise in the
under 16 rate (to 8.4) with fewer conceptions ending in termination
(56%). Particular wards have higher rates of teenage pregnancy
and there is an apparent relationship with deprivation.
During the same time period, the deteriorating financial climate
combined with the growth in the numbers of older people, will
inevitably mean meeting greater demand with fewer resources.
Graph showing correlation between ward deprivation score and under
18 conception rate for 2005-2007
This makes it essential to transform the services that health and
social care fund, to reduce demand through successful and
targeted health and social care interventions and to avoid
duplication and waste.
100
Westfield
90
Under 18 conception Rate
80
70
If the vision is to be achieved then the PCT and the local authority
need to work ever more closely with each other and with voluntary
organisations and other third sector bodies, in order to agree
common targets for improving the health and well-being of local
people and communities.
This will require an improved
understanding of need, the ability to better define service
requirements and use resources.
Clifton
Hull Road
60
Heworth
Haxby & Wigginton
50
Guildhall
40
30
20
10
0
0
Low deprivation
5
10
15
20
25 High deprivation
Ward deprivation score
Note: Under 18 conception rates are per 1000 females aged 15-17
Sources: ONS (ward conception numbers) and Teenage Pregnancy Unit (ward conception
rates)
30
Dementia, sight loss, deaf or hard of hearing & depression
2.5% of all people aged over 75 are likely to have Dementia and
significant sight loss according to a report published by RNIB and
The Alzheimers Society in 2009. This is likely to be an
underestimate and has significant implications for carers of people
with Dementia.
Figure 7: Source: ONS (Ward conception numbers) and Teenage Pregnancy
Unit (Ward conception rates)
Obesity
In the York UA area 6.7% of reception children are at risk of obesity
which is a decrease from the previous year of 1 percentage point.
12
Source: National Child Measurement Programme
29
Up to 70% of people who have a stroke suffer from some kind of
visual loss and as many as 90% of those with learning disabilities
may have a visual impairment.
The majority of people with sight loss live in poverty, and only 30%
of people of working age are in employment (RNIB). It is highly
likely that sight loss will increase as the population ages, with a
clear relationship between smoking, obesity and sight loss.
In York, as of the 31 March 2007 there were 1,140 people
registered as deaf or hard of hearing;
- 895 were registered as hard of hearing (115 were in the 1864 year old age band, 130 in 65-74 and 650 over 75.
- Of the majority of people with a hearing loss in York, 72%
will be in the 60 + age group.
Also, the Forget Me Not report (Audit Commission 2002) indicated
that 10 - 16% for all those aged over 65 would be likely to suffer
from clinical depression.
Below shows a detailed breakdown of Figures are taken from
www.poppi.org.uk. This site uses the population projections
provided by ONS to predict future growth patterns. This does not
take into account target areas of performance improvement. Below
are the key headlines:
In 2009, of those people
over 65:
By 2020 is predicted to
have risen to:
1) 14, 833 are predicted to have
a limiting long term illness
2) 2,828 predicted to have
depression
3) 2,404 predicted to l have
dementia
4) 1,585 predicted to have
longstanding heart condition
5) 14,245 predicted to a
moderate or severe hearing
impairment
18,231 people (up 23%)
3,455 people (up 22%)
3,035 people (up 26%)
1967 people (up 19%)
6) 8,388 predicted to have a
Body Mass Index of 30 or more
10,221 people (up 18%)
Learning Disability
Population estimates would suggest that three are between 3280
and 4100 people with a learning disability within the city13. The
majority of these will have mild to moderate disabilities and may not
be known to services. There are over 550 adults with a learning
disability known to care management and health services within the
City of York Council geographical boundary. This is consistent with
the national population data figures of incidence. Within that figure,
York has a higher percentage of people with profound and multiple
disability than other comparable areas. This is attributable to a
previous long stay hospital in the area being closed and people
moving into the York area.
Mental Health
It is estimated that in York 36,000 people experience various kinds
of mental health problems ranging from anxiety and depression to
severe and enduring conditions including dementia and
schizophrenia14. People with mental ill health are often
disadvantaged and have particularly high health and social care
needs.
Between 2006 and 2020 the 70-74 and 85+ age groups will
increase by over 40%. These increases will have a very large
impact on the demand for health and social care. However, this
problem will be aggravated by the very large predicted increase in
the number of people over 65 in York with dementia; these numbers
are expected to rise from 2300 in 2009 to 3900 in 2030.
An estimated 800 people in York are diagnosed with schizophrenia,
many of these and others with severe and enduring mental
illnesses (which can include those whose illnesses are
compounded by drug and alcohol abuse) are unlikely to gain
employment or access mainstream activities.
17,637 people (up 19%)
13
14
Source: 2009 White Paper Valuing People Now
Source: Mental Health Observatory
30
•
Carers
Within the city 1,473 carers of all ages who carried out substantial
and regular care were assessed or reviewed in 2009/10 and
subsequently given support, information or advice. However we
know from the census that there were over 17,000 carers in total of
whom over 3,000 people who identified themselves as providing
50+ hours of care a week15.
4.10 Education
Premises
Between 1987 and 2001 the birth rate in York was falling. The
resulting high levels of surplus space within some of York’s less
popular maintained schools was dealt with, under pressure from the
government, by a programme of school closures and
amalgamations.
However, the current demographic context is one which reflects the
fact that since 2001 the birth rate has been rising at a rate far above
that predicted by the Office for National Statistics. The faster than
expected growth of pre-school and primary age children has been
compounded by a number of large scale residential housing
developments, and means that there is now difficulty in
accommodating preschool and primary age pupils within their local
schools in certain areas of the city.
A review of education provision across the city will be completed
Autumn 2010. However, there are already a number of existing
supply issues in the city, all of which relate to the primary sector:
Lack of Primary places in:
•
Acomb / Holgate area of city.
•
Southbank area (severe)
•
Clifton / Bootham (Burton Stone Lane) area.
15
Dunnington village.
Significant surplus Primary places in:
•
Millfield Lane / Osbaldwick and surrounding area.
•
Haxby Road area.
•
Skelton village.
By 2014/15, the larger cohorts currently at primary school will reach
the secondary sector. It is anticipated that similar overcrowding
problems will be experienced at our most popular secondary
schools when this point is reached.
Attainment
Educational attainment in York is comparatively high; GCSE/GNVQ
and GCE/VCE A/AS level achievements are significantly higher
than both the Yorkshire and Humber region and the England
average. In York in 2008/09 53.8% of pupils achieved 5 or more
A*-C grades at GCSE. This is a slight decrease from 2007/08s
figure but is still above the national average of 50.2%.
In addition, work within the city continues to use innovative and
targeted interventions at school and pupil level to narrow the gap at
all key stages for pupils working below age related expectations.
Children from the 30% most deprived areas in York still perform
more poorly than all other pupils at Key Stage 2 level 4 and above.
2008/9 saw a reverse in trend of closing the attainment gap
between pupils eligible for free school meals and those who are not.
4.11 Culture and Leisure
Sport England and the Audit Commission agree that only 1.1% of
the population of York is within 20 minutes travel time (urban –
walking and rural – driving) of a range of sports facilities (one of
which has received a quality mark). This compares to the national
average of around 21%.
ONS 2001 Census
31
In 2008/09 36% of residents were satisfied with sports and leisure
services within the authority, which places the city within the bottom
quartile in the country. This is a decrease on 2007/08’s 44%. The
Place Survey in York also captured how satisfied residents were
with a number of other facilities. 68% of residents were satisfied
with the libraries, 72% with the museums and galleries, 68% with
the theatres/ halls and 74% with parks and open spaces.
Consultation with regards to open space with residents identified
varying perceptions on the provision of open space. 60% of
residents agreed that the provision of city parks was about right
although provision for local parks was insufficient. The quantity of
children’s open space was also highlighted as being poor and the
quality for outdoor sports facilities was perceived to be mixed.
32
5.
York’s Economy
5.1 York’s Local Economic Role
Sub-regionally, York sits within two areas of economic influence,
the Leeds City Region and York and North Yorkshire.
Region are all carrying out Local Economic Assesssments to
provide a robust evidence base for developing their economies. So
far only the York and North Yorkshire area has completed its Local
Economic Assessment which included a specific assessment for
the York sub area.
Within the sub-region, the York area has been defined as the city
council area, Easingwold and surrounds, the A64 corridor to Malton
and surrounds, Selby and the villages to the north and the Wolds /
Weighton / Pocklington area in the East Riding. The sub-area has a
population of about 305,000 – nearly 40% of the York and North
Yorkshire population.
The main underlying characteristics identified in relation to York’s
recent economic history are:
•
A growing economy prior to 2003 with the hospitality and retail
sectors finance and business services largely static since.
However, public administration has continued to grow with 31%
of all jobs in the sub-area (34% in the city itself) being in public
administration, education and health (26% in the sub-region).
•
An expanding higher education and science base. Whilst
mentioning more recent flatter performance in the financial and
business services sector the visitor economy and in retail.
•
The presence of a skilled workforce. 39% of residents in work
are in higher level occupations (compared with 35% for
theYorkshire and Humber). Some of the outlying parts of the
sub-area enjoy substantially higher percentage figures. 22% of
the sub-area population have higher level qualifications
compared to 16% regionally.
•
The critical economic role played by the city of York is noted.
70% of the sub-area’s employment is in the city, although it
contains only 63% of the sub-area population. This is
accompanied by a high level of in-commuting to the city from the
more peripheral sub-areas. 82% of all jobs in the sub-area are
taken up by residents from within.
Figure 8: York in the regional context
In the Leeds City Region area York is one of 11 local authorities
working together toward a common prosperous and sustainable city
region in areas such as transport, skills, housing, spatial planning
and innovation.
York is also part of York and North Yorkshire sub region. York City
Council, York and North Yorkshire sub region and Leeds City
33
5.2 A Strong Economy
York’s economy is strong, with major employment sectors in public
services, financial services, catering and tourism.
•
The city has a high employment rate with 78.6 percent of the
working age population in employment between June 2008 and
March 2009, above the regional (72.4 percent), and national
(73.9 percent) average.
•
Despite the recession, York’s rise in unemployment remains low
and the city has comparatively low youth unemployment.
•
The city has a highly skilled population with 61 percent of the
population with NVQ level 3 and above (Yorkshire & Humber:
44.2; Great Britain: 47) and 36.3 percent with NVQ level 4 and
above (Yorkshire & Humber: 25; Great Britain: 29), in 2008.
York’s strong and thriving economy was also described as
“independent” by the Work Foundation, and the only local authority
in this category, when carrying out some research on the Leeds
City Economy. By independent the Work Foundation meant that
York has a strong labour market and does not depend on Leeds as
a source of employment for its residents.
Figure 9: Source The Northern Way - City Relationships: Economic linkages
in northern city regions – Nov 2009
At the time of the last SCS review in 2007, the business led Future
York Group (FYG) published a report on securing the future growth
of the York economy. The FYG report made a series of
recommendations, including adopting a 3.7 percent annual growth
rate target, which would result in the economy doubling by 2026
and the creation of a 1000 jobs per annum. The severity of the
recession means that the economic growth aspirations of the Future
York Group will be reviewed following the completion of York’s
Local Economic Assessment.
The Government has already announced £6.2bn of cuts that will
take effect in 2010/11. A key challenge for York will be rebalancing
its economy. Whilst York has already rebalanced its economy from
the 1980’s with a decline in manufacturing, the rail industry and
confectionery matched by an increase in knowledge industries, the
new challenge will be to rebalance the economy by reducing York’s
over dependence on public sector employment. In 200716 29.1% of
16 Source: Nomis (2009) Annual Business Inquiry
34
all York jobs were in public administration, education and health,
which was above the Great Britain average of 26.9%. As the public
sector contracts, in response to the government’s commitment to
reducing the excessive public debt, then a key economic policy
priority over the next decade will be to increase private sector jobs
growth to rebalance the economy and to provide new opportunities
to replace those as the public sector begins to contract.
The impact of the recession on York’s economy was analysed by
the Centre for Cities policy think tank in March 2009.17 The key
recommendations from the report were:
•
•
Sustainable growth – the need to embrace managed change in
the city and deliver the infrastructure needed to support
sustainable economic growth, particularly focused on the York
Northwest development opportunity; and,
Science and technology – partners through Science City York
need to increase their focus on building up the city’s science
and technology cluster.
In a more recent Centre for Cities report, ‘Private Sector Cities: A
new geography of opportunity’18, York was categorised as a ‘stable’
city (as opposed to ‘buoyant’ or ‘struggling’) based on the key
indicators of:
• Annual average growth of real Gross Value Added (1998 –
2007)
• Private sector job creation (1998-2008)
• Annual average population growth (1998 – 2008)
• Average house prices (2008)
• Average JSA and IB claimant count (1999-2008)
• Average wages (2008)
Buoyant cities, as the table below illustrates, performed strongly on
most of the indicators and were described as “prime candidates for
major expansion to support further economic and employment
growth in the UK”.
Table 9: England’s buoyant cities – Centre for Cities (June 2009).
York’s position was classified as ‘robust’, since it was ranked 5th out
of 39 stable cities and coming in ahead of Leeds.
Table 10: Extract from England’s stable cities – Centre for Cities (June 2009).
Yorkshire Cities, a grouping of urban local authorities which
includes York, commissioned an independent report from
consultants Ekosgen which was published in February 200919. This
provided an “Index of Economic Resilience” and “Toolkit” for the
region’s main towns and cities. As with the Centre for Cities
assessment, the work was precipitated by the economic downturn
which had been gaining momentum as 2008 unfolded.
17
Kieran Larkin (March 2009) York: Prioritising Prosperity – Centre for Cities
,Chris Webber & Paul Swinney (June 2010) Private Sector Cities: A new geography of
opportunity – Centre for Cities analysis of England’s 56 cities
18
19 Yorkshire Cities - Ekosgen report, Index of Economic Resilience, Final Report - January
2009
35
Six domains were used to identify and measure economic resilience
– sectoral mix, workforce, enterprise, labour market, assets and
infrastructure, scale and proximity to markets.
•
Addressing the city’s under-average performance in growing its
business base – increasing the number of start-ups.
•
To invest in the public realm.
•
Develop a complementary image for the city as a low risk
opportunity for inward investment with the council retaining and
enhancing the capacity to respond to developers’ enquiries and
proposals.
York was found to have:
•
The second highest level of GVA per head in the region.
•
An employment rate considerably higher than that regionally
and nationally.
•
•
Yorkshire Forward should consider pump-priming the office
sector.
An above average resilience (of the 60 cities measured) placing
it in the top group of Yorkshire authorities (along with Leeds and
Sheffield).
•
•
Priority should be given to the York North West opportunity and
to improving the outer ring road as a catalyst for further
economic development.
A labour market domain, with only Bath, Harrogate and Northeast Somerset achieving a better score, reflecting the low
numbers on benefit and the higher level skills in the city
(although the latter are some way behind comparator cities such
as Brighton).
•
A strongly performing workforce domain, largely due to the
flexibility of the local labour market in changing to economic
conditions and shocks.
•
A strong performance in the sectoral mix domain reflecting the
relatively small proportion employed in vulnerable sectors (such
as manufacturing).
•
Above average assets, with its two universities and road/rail
connections.
•
A scale and proximity domain which highlighted that although it
is a substantial urban area, its economy is “independent” and
relatively small when compared with others in the Index.
In February 2010, Yorkshire Cities produced an update to the Index
of Economic Resilience detailed above20. A year on, Ekosgen
found that although York’s resilience had increased commensurate
with the index average, the city ranking dipped from 14th to 16th
(out of 60). However, York remained in the top group of Yorkshire
Cities along with Leeds and Sheffield.
Looking at each of the six domains again in turn:
•
York continued to score very highly on the workforce domain
with an above average level of improvement in duration of
unemployment. The proportion of the workforce qualified to level
4 or above also increased maintaining York’s position as the
regional leader.
•
An improved business start-up rate meant that the city outperformed the average in the enterprise domain. Business
density also improved slightly (number of businesses per 1000
employees). Overall, however, the enterprise domain remained
second lowest regionally reinforcing Ekosgen’s original
recommendation.
In recommending future action Ekosgen’s key recommendations
included:
•
Paying greater attention to the proportion in employment in the
knowledge intensive industries which enjoy good long-term
growth prospects.
20
Yorkshire Cities /Ekosgen 2010 Resilience update Strengthening Local Economies Index
of Economic Resilience: From Growth to Recession - March 2010
36
•
•
•
York continued to have the highest score in the labour market
domain, experiencing the lowest increase in Job Seekers’
Allowance claimants. The proportion of adults without NVQ level
2 or equivalent also decreased, giving the city top position in the
60 urban areas surveyed. However, the vacancy level increased
significantly suggesting that there may be skills gaps. Further
analysis of this was recommended by Ekosgen.
In terms of sectoral mix, the city continued to be well advanced
in the shift towards a more knowledge based economy, public
sector employment had also risen. Ekosgen suggested that
there was an over-dependence on health, local employment
growing while nationally in decline. Similar concern was
expressed over insurance services, niche manufacturing and
hotels.
business service sector (Norwich Union). The key component of
York's modernising agenda is the Science City initiative.
Employment in the three fast-growing science clusters (Bioscience
& Healthcare, E-Science - IT & Digital, Creative including Heritage
& Arts Technology) is on track to achieve a target forecast of 19000
Science City jobs by 2026, which will account for 16% of total
employment.
The city is heavily dependent on public sector employment and in
view of the extensive spending cuts being projected, these are a
major cause for concern. This makes the need to make
opportunities/sites ready for private sector investment all the more
urgent.
Scale and proximity and assets and infrastructure domains
remained largely unchanged.
5.3 Attracting Inward Investment
In order to develop a public realm fit for purpose in the 21st century,
an independent master planning exercise is underway, sponsored
by the City Council jointly with Yorkshire Forward. The intention of
the master planning exercise is the production of a prioritised list of
revitalising investments in a form that can be taken to the market
place for private-sector led implementation.
5.4 Service Sector Growth
Without specific interventions total employment is forecast to rise to
117,000 jobs in the York by 2026, with an estimated net growth of
1000-1500 jobs each year. (But this is an earlier forecast). Jobs
have been and will be created in most sectors, with retail, hospitality
and tourism together with public administration, education and
health currently accounting for circa 60% of jobs, followed by
banking and finance (14%). Traditional manufacturing industries,
however, can no longer be expected to provide the job numbers
they once did and in 2006 the city saw dramatic job cuts of around
1400 from both manufacturing (Nestle and British Sugar) and the
37
York has long been established as one of the country’s main tourist
destinations, for both UK and overseas visitors. Consequently
tourism is a major element of the city’s economic and social life,
with visitor spending creating enough jobs for one in ten of the local
workforce. The significant tourism industry in York gives the city a
huge advantage in developing a high international and national
profile.
Total number of visitors
Total visitor expenditure
Total (full time equivalent) jobs supported
by tourism
Total number of visitor days
7.1 million
£442.6 million
22,910
9.7 million
Table 11: Key Tourism Statistics Source: York Economic Impact Study (2008)
Of the 6 million leisure visitors to the city, the vast majority came to
York for a holiday/ day out (4.3m, or 72%), with 1.6m (27%) visiting
friends or relatives and the remaining 0.1m (2%) attending a major
event. 65% of day visitors and 7% of staying visitors came from
within the Yorkshire region. Overall, visitor numbers increased by
2% from 2007, driven by the greater number of leisure visitors
coming to the city in 2008 (up by 3%). Business tourism, in line with
the national picture, and as a result of the credit crunch, decreased
slightly (by 5%).
Day
Staying
Overseas
Total
Leisure
5,138,165
574,216
273,190
5,985,571
Business
776,875
346,355
1,123,230
38
Business visitors spend more than four times more than leisure
visitors whilst in York – with the average spend per trip for a
business visitor being £180.64 compared to £40.04 for a leisure
visitor. Leisure day visitors spend an average of £21.97 per person
per trip, with leisure staying visitors spending £149.59 per person
per trip or £52.59 per day (including accommodation). This
highlights the relative importance of the overseas visitors and the
business visitors to the total value of tourism in York, contributing
10% and 46% of the total turnover respectively.
Day
Staying
Overseas
Total
Leisure
£112.9m
£84.4m
£42.4m
£239.7m
and claiming inactive benefits. Geographical pockets of
worklessness exist within relatively buoyant labour markets.
In 2008, 65% of the population were of working age (127,000
people) which is 2% above the national average. In total however,
82.4% of people are economically active, 75.9% of which were in
employment between Oct 2008 and Sep 2009, which is higher than
the national and regional averages of 72.9 and 71.2 respectively for
people in employment.
Business
£72.2m
£130.7m
£202.9m
Overall, the number one area of spend by leisure visitors was food
and drink, with a total of £69.7m spent on eating and drinking.
Shopping followed, with £50.8m spent and accommodation in third
(£45.7m). There was £28.6m spent at attractions. For the staying
visitors, accommodation was their biggest area of spend, followed
by food and drink and shopping.
5.5 Employment and Worklessness
While employment rates, until recently, have been on an upward
trend since 1992, they have not been evenly distributed among the
population. There are individuals who are long-term unemployed,
and a rising number of individuals who are economically inactive
In October 2009, 3% of York’s residents were claiming Job Seekers
Allowance (JSA) which is an increase on the 2007/08 figure of
39
1.8%. Of the people who were claiming JSA at this time, 71.7% of
people had been claiming up to 6 months, 19% had been claiming
6-8 months and 9.3 over 12 months. The age group claiming the
majority of the JSA were aged between 25-49. Whilst the total
figure for the number of JSA claimants is below the national and
regional average, the number of people claiming is higher in the 0-6
months category. Compared to figures released in February 2009,
the figure has increased for the city of York which is a reflection of
the economic downturn.
In March 2010 the Centre for Local Economic Strategy (CLES)
published a report21 commissioned by Yorkshire Cities which looked
at how the major cities in the region supported those unemployed.
For York the study concluded that there were three areas where
partners could enhance current strategy:
•
Local partners needed to explore further the potential mismatch
between available employment opportunities and the aspirations
of the local population;
•
There was a gap in the linkages between employment services
and developing links with debt advisory services (e.g. bringing in
other non employment focused services);
•
Employment support was generally targeted at people on
benefits in a very traditional way. Partners could explore a wider
range of approaches to engaging and working with clients (e.g.
targeting services through family focused agencies).
In 2009, average resident earnings per week were £479. This is
lower than the national (£491) but higher than the regional (£452)
average.
21 “Tackling Unemployment Study “ by the Centre for Local Economic Strategy – March 2010
40
Rank
City
% working age pop. With no
formal skills 2008
1
Cambridge
5.4
2
Oxford
5.5
3
Edinburgh
6.4
4
York
6.8
5
Reading
7.7
6
Gloucester
8.3
7
Worthing
8.3
8
Brighton
8.4
9
Aldershot
9.0
10
Bournemouth
9.1
Table 13: Source: Cities Outlook 2010 (Centre for Cities)
Whilst York has a relatively highly qualified workforce, high levels of
employment and median weekly pay that is currently £27 higher
than the regional average yet £11 below the UK average (2009),
6.8% of the working age population have no formal qualifications
(APS, Jan 2008 to Dec 2008). In addition, 23% experience
numeracy and literacy problems, unemployment is at a thirteen year
high (ONS Claimant Count, Feb 2010), those in the lowest income
quartile (weekly pay in York), remains lower than the national
average and there are pockets of low level qualifications, high
levels of incapacity benefit claimants and relative deprivation by
ward, as well as low level skills and skills gaps by industry sector.
5.6 Skills and Training
York has a highly qualified workforce, with a significantly higher
proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 2, 3 and
4 than the regional or national average.
Qualification
York (No)
York (%)
Regional %
UK %
NVQ 4 +
46,000
36.3
25
29
NVQ 3 +
77,400
61
44.2
47
NVQ 2 +
98,300
77.5
62.9
65.2
NVQ 1+
112,100
88.4
78.2
78.9
Other Quals
6,100
4.8
8.4
8.7
No Quals
8,600
6.8
13.4
12.4
Table 12: Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey (2008 calendar year)
As the profile of York's knowledge-led economy develops, and the
nature of both the traditional and established job market changes,
the city needs to be able to support emerging workforce skills
needs, as well as community inclusion issues. Furthermore, as a
net importer of workers, and a growing ethnic minority and migrant
population, there is an important role and opportunity for the city to
play in terms of developing the learning and skills needs of
individuals from York's hinterland, as well as embracing the needs
and opportunities of a diverse culture.
5.7 Higher Education
York attracts students from all over the UK and overseas to its
colleges and universities. The city has two universities, York St.
John and the University of York, which is recognised as being within
the top world 100, together catering for 19,000 students per annum.
41
In addition, Askham Bryan College has a student intake of 4,000
and provides courses in agriculture, horticulture, equine
management, animal management, land management, business,
food production, engineering and bioscience.
The University of York is one of the most highly regarded
universities in the UK, acknowledged for the quality of its research
and teaching.22 The University has also attracted internationally
significant science-based organisations such as Smith and Nephew
plc and FERA to make York their headquarters. The York Science
Park on the campus employs over 1200 workers in nearly 100
companies. Science City York is a pioneering model offering
business mentorship, innovation resources and access to the
knowledge base of the region to help businesses seed and grow.
Companies focused on biotechnology, IT and creative technologies,
in particular, have flourished.
As part of the £200m first stage campus expansion, the University,
Science City York and FERA together secured £20m ERDF funding
for the development of the region’s knowledge-based industries.
Over the next five years, this joint venture will create 700 new jobs
and 100 new businesses and increase productivity in this sector by
almost £40m. This is on the back of the 2,800 jobs and 99
technology-based new businesses already created by Science City
York.
The University of York St. John is based on an award winning
campus in the centre of York with almost 6,000 students studying a
wide range of subjects within the Arts, Business, Education and
Theology and Health and Life Sciences. It has a wide network of
regional, national and international partnerships with a highly
recognised reputation for its teaching and learning.
date teaching and learning environment and also ability to host
partners such as the Yorkshire Film Archive, Science City Phoenix
Centre, the York Hospitals Trust library and the Centre for Global
Education. The latest addition to the campus was the RIBA award
winning £15 million De Grey Court.
York College is the largest provider of A Level and vocational
programmes for 16 - 19 year olds in the region, offering over 40 A
Level subjects and 80 vocational programmes. The college also
offers a range of Higher Education courses for full and part-time
study as well as many Adult Learning classes.
A recent study attempted to quantify the income and employment
gains attributable to York St John University and the University of
York.23. It concluded that if expenditure on the Heslington East new
build was included, the local income gain associated with the
presence of the universities was £388 million and the number of
jobs generated was 8,640. This is over 10% of all jobs in the York
Unitary Authority area. Detailed breakdown of the impact of each
University are as follows:
York St John University
In 2009/10 York St John University generated 1,142 jobs in the
York Unitary Authority area. This total comprises:
•
those employed by York St John;
•
those employed by local firms supplying goods and services to
York St John;
•
those employed by local enterprises selling goods and services
to York St John students and conference delegates; and
•
those employed as a result of the re-cycling of the above
income and job gains within the local economy.
The University has benefited from almost £75 million of strategic
investment in new facilities over the past ten years to develop a well
resourced city centre campus. The development provides an up to
23
22
Latest Times Higher Education ranking (September 2010) put University of
York as 81st in world; 17th in Europe and 9th in UK.
Study conducted by Bernard Stafford and Stephen Martin in November 2010
entitled ‘The local income and employment gains attributable to York St John
University and the University of York’.
42
Of the 1,142 jobs generated by York St John, 852 (75 per cent) are
occupied by persons who would have been locally resident had the
University not been founded and developed in York, whereas 290
(25 per cent) are occupied by persons who migrated to York
because of the presence of York St John.
The annual local income gain associated with the 1,142 jobs
generated by York St John is £47million. Of this total, £30million
arises from the employment of persons who would have been
locally resident had the University not been founded and developed
in York, and £17million arises from the employment of persons who
migrated to York because of the presence of York St John.
University of York and the Science Park (excluding new build
expenditure
In 2009/10 the University of York including the Science Park
generated 6,692 jobs in the York Unitary Authority area. This total
comprises:
•
those employed by the University and by organizations located
on the Science Park;
•
those employed by local firms supplying goods and services to
the University and the Science Park;
•
those employed by local enterprises selling goods and services
to University students and conference delegates; and
•
those employed as a result of the re-cycling of the above
income and job gains within the local economy.
in York, whereas 2,932 jobs are occupied by persons who migrated
to York because of the presence of the University.
The annual local income gain associated with the 6,692 jobs
generated by the University of York and the Science Park is
£317million. Of this total, £168million arises from the employment of
persons who would have been locally resident had the University
not been founded and developed in York, and £150million arises
from the employment of persons who migrated to York because of
the presence of the University.
York University’s campus expansion programme
The University of York is embarked upon a substantial campus
expansion programme at Heslington East. In 2009/10 it spent
£100m on this new building programme. This boosted local
incomes by £24million and generated 806 local jobs.
5.8 York’s Commuting Links
York has a net inflow of commuters. Data, for 2007, shows that
26,300 people commute in to the city (27 percent of the city’s
workforce), while 13,700 commute out (14 percent of the resident
working age population in employment).
Leeds is the primary destination for York’s out-commuters.
Approximately 5,000 people in York commute to work in Leeds (4.8
percent of York’s working age population in employment).
Of the, 6,692 jobs generated by the University and the Science
Park, 3,760 jobs are occupied by persons who would have been
locally resident had the University not been founded and developed
43
44
6.
Climate – Driver of Change
There is an overwhelming body of scientific evidence highlighting
the serious and urgent nature of climate change. Climate Change is
caused by natural and human induced factors. Natural causes such
as the Earth’s changing orbit, or variations in the sun’s activity can
cause changes in our climate. However, human activities such as
burning fossil fuels which produce harmful greenhouse gas
emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and changes in land use
from the urbanisation of our towns and deforestation are also
causing our climate to change.
In York, if we are to reduce CO2 emissions in line with the national
Climate Change Act (2008), York’s total end user CO2 emissions
from businesses, homes and transport would need to be just
260,000 tonnes of CO2 (this figure for York is based on 2005 data
and not 1990 level data. It is however the most robust data set
available for use in the absence of 1990 data). As residents, CO2
emissions for the average person in York will need to be closer to
1.3 tonne per person by 2050. To date, and from 2005- 2008, per
capita reduction has fallen by 13%. This is 1% greater than the LAA
target of 12% by 2010/2011.
The government is committed to play its part in tackling climate
change and passed in 2008 the Climate Change Act. This act binds
England and Wales to an 80% reduction in carbon.
However, the graph below demonstrates the scale of CO2 emission
reduction, that remains, per sector, and required for York to reach
the Climate Change Act’s 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.
6.1 The Climate Change Challenge in York
Since 2005, York’s carbon emissions from end users (emissions
based on the energy consumption from businesses, the public
sector and residential housing, along with fuel data on York’s roads
(excluding major roads such as motorways) have begun to fall from
1,300,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions to just under 1,165,000 tonnes
of CO2 emissions. Table 1 illustrates the decrease in emissions per
sectors since 2005.
Year
From
From
From road Total CO2 Average
industries & homes CO2 transport
(t)
per
commerce (t)
CO2 (t)
person
(t)
CO2 (t)
2005
533,000
452,000 313,000
1,298,000 6.9
2006
530,000
452,000 309,000
1,291,000 6.8
2007
440,000
435,000 310,000
1,185,000 6.2
2008
433,000
436,000 296,000
1,165,000 6
Table 14: York’s end use CO2 emissions by source 2005 – 2008(DECC 2010).
600,000
500,000
Industry CO2 (t)
400,000
Domestic CO2 (t)
300,000
Transport CO2 (t)
200,000
100,000
0
2005
2025
2045
Figure 10: End user actual CO2 savings (2005-2008) and projected carbon
savings ( 2009 – 2050) that are required to reach an 80% reduction in CO2
emissions in York by 2050
As seen in figure 10 and table 15 below, it is predicted that York, by
2050, will be required to emit just under 260,000 tonnes of CO2.
This is a saving of just over a million tonnes of CO2 (1,038,400 t of
CO2).
45
Year
2050
Industry
Domestic Transport
Emission
CO2 savings savings
savings
targets CO2 (t)
(t)
CO2 (t)
CO2 (t)
106,436
90,860 62,304 259,600
Table 15: Forecast figures based on the 2005 composition of York's CO2
emissions (DECC 2010 data)
The challenge does not stop there. The previous data does not
show the full picture. If we include all direct and indirect CO2
emissions associated to our everyday lives the challenge to reduce
CO2 emissions becomes even greater.
In 2009, the Stockholm Environment Institute calculated the
average York Resident’s Carbon Footprint and included the total
amount of carbon emissions that resulted directly as well as
indirectly from residents’ consumption of goods and services (e.g.
car use) as well as indirect emissions arising in the supply of the
goods and services (e.g. transporting the raw materials to be
manufactured). The results showed that the average York resident,
including direct and indirect emissions, has a carbon footprint of
nearer 12.58 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.24
This comprehensive carbon footprint of an average York resident
shows where York’s residents’ carbon emissions come from. They
can be broken down by the themes of housing, transport, food,
consumables and services:
Housing (3.62 tonnes) covers gas, electricity and fuel use in the
home but also includes construction, rental and maintenance of
dwellings.
Transport (3.54 tonnes) incorporates car use and maintenance, as
well that of other private vehicles and public transport.
24
York's Greenhouse Gas footprint is 16.40 tonnes CO2 equivalent per person and includes
other key greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. Equivalent CO2 is the
concentration of CO2 that would cause the same level of warming as a given type and
concentration of greenhouse gas.
Food (1.08 tonnes) covers spending on food and drink and includes
catering, eating out and alcoholic beverages.
Consumables (1.38 tonnes) covers annual expenditure on 17
categories of household consumption items including clothing,
tobacco, newspapers and household appliances.
Services (0.78 tonnes) covers annual expenditure on 13 categories
of service from insurance to financial advice to private education.
An additional 2.18 tonnes of carbon dioxide is added to every
individual’s footprint to complete the total footprint. These additional
impacts cover spending by Government and capital spending not
addressed by the other themes. This includes the impact of public
administration, health and education.
The York footprint of 12.58 tonnes of CO2 is an average and there
is great variation within the city with some residents’ footprints being
higher or lower than this level. York will look to reduce the average
resident’s carbon footprint by 80% by 2050 (based on a 2009 SEI
baseline).
6.2 Reducing Carbon emissions
There are four key areas where Without Walls will focus to make a
real difference to reducing CO2 emissions. These include transport,
housing, food and public services. Together these account for over
70% of the footprint of York.
In order for the city to play its part in helping the UK to meet its
national 80% reduction in CO2, by 2050, York will focus on city-wide
actions on the areas with the greatest influence and impact. This
will cover the four areas identified above and include awareness
raising of climate change issues so that residents are well informed
and can choose to change consumption habits.
To help York tackle climate change a climate change framework
and action plan has been created. This Framework will enable York
to coordinate and accelerate actions to reduce carbon and other
emissions across the city.
46
It also demonstrates the actions already on-going across York and
highlights the longer term direction and key areas the city needs to
address, initially up to 2015, but this will be reviewed and refined
every five years up until 2050. The Framework is the overarching
document that will drive development of a Climate Change Action
Plan for the city.
The Climate Change Action Plan for York will be a combination of
two specific action plans. The plans are broken into mitigation,
actions that will reduce emissions from across York, and
adaptation, actions that will help York better prepare and adapt to
the effects of climate change caused by increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases from human activities.
In order to tackle climate change, and meet the headline CO2 and
carbon footprint targets, York will focus on creating:
1. Sustainable homes
The city will begin to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions from
domestic properties by accelerating city-wide programmes and
educational campaigns to increase the use of energy-efficient
measures such as loft and cavity wall insulation in existing homes
and in all new homes.
2. Sustainable buildings
The city will begin to reduce CO2 emissions from non- domestic
buildings by accelerating city-wide programmes and educational
campaigns to increase the use of energy-efficient measures and
practices (including schools and, where viable, historic buildings)
and in all new buildings.
3. Sustainable energy
The city will begin to understand the potential for low carbon,
renewable, localised sources of energy generation, and will begin to
reduce York’s reliance on fossil fuels for energy generation in the
city’s buildings.
4. Sustainable waste management
The city will continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from
York’s waste and will continue to minimise waste and reuse and
recycle resources.
5. Sustainable transport
The city will continue to implement measures to help people make
smarter, sustainable travel choices.
6. Sustainable low carbon economy
The city will have accelerated programmes and educational
campaigns to support businesses and organisations to reduce
carbon emissions and waste across their operations, their fleets
and workforce.
7. Low carbon lifestyles
York residents will be well-informed and living a greener, more
sustainable lifestyle where people
save energy in their homes, reduce, reuse and recycle waste, walk
and cycle, use public transport, grow their own food and buy local
produce.
8. Sustainable planning, land use and agriculture
Ensure that planning in York will help create an environmentallyfriendly city with a diminishing ecological and carbon footprint. In
addition, York should ensure the protection and enhancement of the
natural environment and maximise the role it can play to help the
city tackle climate change and better prepare for a changing
climate.
9. Sustainable WoW (Without Walls Partnership)
Drive forward carbon reduction and climate change adaptation
actions across many partners in York.
6.3 Adapting to Climate Change
Some level of climate change is already certain. As a result there is
a need to, not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to
prepare for living with the effects of climate change. Global impacts
from climate change are likely to be increased flooding and the
47
increased risk of droughts. Global impacts from climate change are
likely to be increased flooding and the increased risk of droughts.
Locally we will see increased frequency of extreme rainfall events,
changes in seasonal rainfall causing drier summers and wetter
winter, increases in daily temperatures and increased frequency of
heatwaves (climate change predictions by 2050 for York). As a
result of these effects the city may be at risk from suffering
significant increased risk of socio-economic and environmental
damage and disruption caused by flooding and changes to
seasonal rainfall and temperatures, significant annual damages and
financial costs, increased risks to public health from flooding and
heatwaves, changes to local biodiversity and availability of water
resources, and increased demand on public sector organisations to
respond to more frequent and sever weather events.
Actions that allow us to adapt to changes in our climate will help
York to better prepare and adapt to a changing climate now and in
the future. Actions will include:
•
City of York Council and WOW partnership to undertake a
comprehensive risk based assessment of vulnerabilities to
weather and climate, both now and in the future in 2011
(utilising York’s local climate impact profile which determines
current and future vulnerability to weather events and future
climate change in York);
•
City of York, WOW and other partners across the city to identify
the most effective adaptive responses and begin incorporating
these into city and organisational strategies, plans and
operations from 2011;
•
Mainstream climate change adaptation in the WOW partnership
and encourage WOW to identify major weather and climate
vulnerabilities and opportunities that may affect the delivery of
the Sustainable Community Strategy (2008-2025).
•
Achieve level 2 of NI 188: Adapting to Climate change
framework by April 2011.
48

york`s story of place - City of York Council

Transcription

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