Consumer Index

Transcription

Consumer Index

Q1 201
1
Consumer Index
Western and Northern Europe
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Welcome to the Q1 2011 edition of Consumer Index.
We hope you find it interesting. Please do not hesitate
to contact us if you have any questions or comments.
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
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Consumer Index
Western and Northern Europe
IE
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Contents
Total Europe – Shopping Behaviour
p.2
Trade Channel and Category Trends:
•Austria
•France
•Germany
•Great Britain
•Greece
•Ireland
•Italy
•The Netherlands
•Portugal
•Scandinavia
•Spain
•Definitions
•Sources and methodology
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 8
p. 9
p.10
p.11
p.12
p.13
p.14
p.15
FMCG Consumer Dashboard
% Change Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010
Austria
France
Germany
GB
Greece*
Ireland
Italy
FMCG
Fresh Food
Chilled Food
Packaged Grocery
Frozen Food
Alcohol
Soft Drinks
Personal Care
Home Care
Pet Food
Increase of more than 0.5%
Decrease of more than 0.5%
Increase/decrease of 0.5% or less
Category not covered
*Greece: Chilled Food = Dairy products only; Home and Personal Care are one single category
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Netherlands
Portugal
Scandinavia
Spain
Consumer Index
Austria Q1 2011
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Year on Year % Change Value
Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+4.2%
Rate of Food Inflation (Value)
+3.9%
0.0%
Rate of Unemployment
-4.3%
Frequency of FMCG Purchase
Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)
+4.1%
FMCG Value Share %
12.3
13.3
12.4
Other
7.2
7.3
7.1
Drug Stores
25.1
24.3
24.3
20.9
21.3
21.4
34.6
33.9
34.9
6.8
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Q4 2010
FMCG
0
1
0
Supermarkets
3
6
4
Hypermarkets
1
-1
-2
Discounters
0
2
1
Drug Stores
-2
2
-5
Other
-9
-7
-5
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0
1
0
Fresh Foods
-1
1
1
Chilled Foods
7
0
-3
Packaged Grocery
0
0
0
Frozen Foods
6
5
-2
Alcohol
-4
1
4
Soft Drinks
-1
3
1
Personal Care
2
0
-5
Home Care
3
7
3
Pet Foods
1
1
-1
0
1
-5
0
-3
1
4
0
4
-6
The Supermarket Billa has continued to grow throughout
Q1 2011, whilst growth for Lidl was balanced by decline
for Aldi and Zielpunkt, resulting in a stable quarter for
Discounters on a whole.
Q3 2010
FMCG
Q1 2011
Drugstores and ‘Other’ store formats are continuing to
struggle.
Austria – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
Hypermarkets outperformed all other store formats,
including Supermarkets which have seen dynamic
development throughout 2010. Positive Hypermarket
performance is attributed to the Spar Group, within which
Eurospar and Interspar have both had a great start to
2011.
Hypermarkets
MAT Q1 09
Q3 2010
Growth in the Soft Drink and Home Care categories was
balanced out by decline in the Chilled, Frozen and Pet
Food categories, resulting in the Total FMCG market
remaining relatively constant in Austria compared to last
year.
Austria – Trade Channels
Supermarkets
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Austria – FMCG Category Trends
Q1 2011 Key Indicators
Year on Year % Change
Discounters
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Q1 2010
0
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4
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets increased their focus
on Private Label in Q1, resulting in an increase of Private
Label share to over 25%. Aldi, on the other hand, turned
their focus towards brands over Private Label.
0
-3
-6
Although Austrian households are now spending more on
their average shopping trip, they are visiting stores less
frequently with the overall result of a decreased average
yearly grocery spend per household.
Consumer Index
France Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+2.3%
+0.4%
-2.0%
-0.7%
+1.4%
FMCG Value Share %
16.8
16.7
17.5
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.7
5.2
28.1
27.3
26.2
43.8
45.0
45.5
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
Soft Discounters
6.8
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
3
5
5
Hypermarkets
4
5
5
Supermarkets
0
0
-1
Soft Discounters
-2
3
3
Hard Discounters
5
6
2
Other
9
13
5
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Q1 2011
FMCG
3
5
3
Fresh Foods
4
7
4
Chilled Foods
2
4
4
2
Packaged Grocery
3
4
3
2
Frozen Foods
6
9
6
Alcohol
6
4
4
6
Soft Drinks
7
3
3
6
Personal Care
4
2
-3
Home Care
3
4
4
Pet Foods
3
3
-3
0
-8
3
3
5
-3
Hypermarkets in France continued to see positive
results with shoppers increasing their spend in
Hypermakets by 2% year on year – this has resulted in a
small increase in market share for Hypermarkets (0.5%).
Meanwhile Supermarkets suffered the hardest in Q1
2011 seeing a fall in shopper spend year on year of 4%
and a decline in market share of over 1%. Despite the
poor performance of Supermarkets, both Leclerc and
Auchan saw promising growth this quarter due to the
success of their new Drive formats.
MAT Q1 11
France - Trade Channels Trends
FMCG
Q4 2010
Strong decline in both Fresh and Pet Foods is
counterbalanced by growth in every other category
– notably in Drinks – both alcoholic and soft (+6%). In
Fresh Foods this decline in spend is most likely due to
French shoppers buying more Private Label products
this quarter when compared to the same period last
year.
Supermarkets
Hypermarkets
Q3 2010
Having experienced several quarters of successive
growth year on year, the Total FMCG market has
remained relatively constant this quarter, showing only a
very slight decline (-0.1%).
France - Trade Channels
Hard Discounters
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France - FMCG Category Trends
Other
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Q1 2010
0
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-4
Intermarché and Système U have both increased their
value share of the market due to their Fresh Food sales.
-3
0
3
Consumer Index
Germany Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+5.2%
+2.9%
-14.7%
-0.7%
+1.4%
FMCG Value Share %
-2
2
2
Packaged Grocery
0
2
4
Alcohol
-4
1
1
Chilled Foods
-1
4
4
Pet Foods
-6
0
-4
Frozen Foods
-1
4
4
Soft Drinks
0
1
1
Home Care
0
-1
1
38.1
38.2
38.5
20.0
20.3
20.7
20.1
19.8
19.7
4
1
-1
0
4
0
3
4
0
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
Both big Hard Discounters, Aldi and Lidl, have lost
market share in Q1 2011.
Hypermarkets
6.5
MAT Q1 11
Drugstores have started to grow again in 2011, alongside
the positive performance of the Personal Care and Home
Care categories.
Germany - Trade Channels Trends
German Shoppers’ propensity to buy products on
promotion saw an increasing presence throughout 2010 –
this trend has continued into 2011.
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
-2
2
2
Hypermarkets
-3
2
2
Supermarkets
0
2
2
Discounters
-2
4
4
0
Other
-5
-1
-1
0
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4
0
Kaufland was the only Hypermarket to grow in value
this quarter and Netto was the only Discounter to do
the same, both having re-positioned themselves in the
market relatively recently.
Supermarkets
Q3 2010
-1
Q1 2011
21.1
Other
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
Growth of Total FMCG over the past two quarters slowed
in Q1 2011 down to 0.2% year on year. This growth was
driven by the performance of Supermarkets – specifically
Edeka and Rewe.
Germany - Trade Channels
21.7
Q3 2010
FMCG
Fresh Foods
Discounters
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Germany - FMCG Category Trends
21.8
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1
Consumer Index
Great Britain Q1 2011
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GDP (Value)
+0.4%
+5.1%
-2.5%
+0.3%
+1.5%
FMCG Value Share %
6.7
2.0
1.5
3.2
5.0
6.6
1.7
1.4
3.1
5.1
6.6
1.6
1.4
3.0
5.3
15.0
14.6
14.4
Independents
66.6
67.5
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
3
4
5
2
Fresh Foods
3
4
5
2
Chilled Foods
2
3
4
2
Packaged Grocery
2
4
6
Frozen Foods
0
0
3
2
Alcohol
7
0
4
2
Soft Drinks
6
5
1
Personal Care
2
3
1
Home Care
3
7
6
Pet Foods
4
6
3
1
8
1
5
0
The discounters Aldi and Lidl benefited from their
existing shoppers increasing their spend in store,
resulting in bothfascias enjoying notablte growth and
allowing Lidl to reach its highest ever share.
Drugstores
Hard Discounters
Q2 2010
Grocery price inflation has continued to increase,
standing at 4.0% at the end of March. This is the first
time that the market growth rate has fallen below
the inflation rate since July 2009, demonstrating that
shoppers are taking an increasingly gloomy view of
2011 and reining in their spending.
Great Britain - Trade Channels
Specialist
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Great Britain - FMCG Category Trends
Others
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67.7
Other Multiples
6.8
Top 4
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
6.5
Similarly, the freezer centres Iceland and Farm Foods
outperformed the market, posting sales increases
as shoppers seek value-for-money products –
something they know they can get from these stores.
MAT Q1 11
Great Britain - Trade Channels Trends
At the same time however, Waitrose shows a strong
performance, increasing its market share compared
last year as it tried to match more Tesco prices and
its Essential range.
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
3
4
5
2
Top 4
3
4
5
2
Other Multiples
2
3
4
Discounters
4
3
8
Drugstores
-1
3
0
Total Independents
5
7
1
Specialist
-10
-5
-1
All Others
4
7
4
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1
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1
-5
-5
3
For the Top 4 retailers, the tussle for share continued
with only Morrisons marginally increasing its share
compared with the same period last year.
Consumer Index
Greece Q1 2011
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GDP (Value)
-8.1%
+2.4%
+36.4%
-0.5%
-1.6%
Greece – Trade Channels
6.5
5.4
5.9
15.5
16.2
16.6
78.0
78.3
77.5
Discounters
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
6.5
MAT Q1 11
Greece – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
FMCG
-8
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
0
Q1 2011
1
-2
Supermarkets
-8
-1
0
Discounters
2
2
7
Other
5
19
21
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Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
-3
0
2
Chilled Foods
-1
-1
1
Packaged Grocery
2
4
6
Frozen Foods
-11
-8
-4
Alcohol
-4
7
7
Soft Drinks
-8
-5
1
Personal Care
-9
-1
-10
Home Care
-7
-1
2
Q1 2011
-2
3
-1
-4
-12
-10
-5
-6
Total FMCG in Greece has declined in Q1 2011 when
compared to the same period last year.
FMCG Value Share %
Supermarkets
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Greece – FMCG Category Trends
Others
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-2
1
-3
Shoppers are visiting stores less frequently and buying
less both in terms of quantity and how much they spend
per trip. Greeks are down trading – this is demonstrated by
a shift toward Private Label. Brands have responded with
promotional activity and strategic pricing.
The switching to Private label has benefited Discounters
in particular – discounters being the only trade channel to
experience any growth this quarter. This growth has been
driven by Lidl who have successfully managed to attract
more shoppers.
Consumer Index
Ireland Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+0.1%
*Q3 2010 v Q3 2009
+0.6%
*YoY % change M12 2010 vs M12 2009
+10.0%
+0.2%
-2.8%
Ireland – Trade Channels
Specialist
5.3
0.8
5.3
1.4
9.4
1.1
5.9
0.9
5.4
1.4
8.6
1.1
Drugstores
77.3
76.8
76.7
Q4 2010
FMCG
1
2
Fresh Foods
-7
2
2
Chilled Foods
-5
-1
-1
Packaged Grocery
-4
3
6
Frozen Foods
-3
2
3
Alcohol
-5
-6
-6
Soft Drinks
-7
1
4
Personal Care
-7
2
-4
Home Care
-7
4
7
Pet Foods
-2
4
9
Q1 2011
1
1
0
1
1
-1
3
4
2
1
Discounters continue to outperform the overall market,
with Aldi being the fastest growing retailer. Rate of growth
for Discounters was particularly strong in the last quarter,
especially with Fresh Foods, Packaged Groceries, and
Chilled.
Independents
Hard Discounters
Q3 2010
-5
The total FMCG market is growing in value terms in the
latest quarter vs. a year ago, driven by inflation across
the market. However, spend on Alcohol declined with the
sector still characterised by high promotional levels.
FMCG Value Share %
5.7
1.0
5.8
1.6
7.5
1.1
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Ireland – FMCG Category Trends
Others
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Other Multiples
6.8
Top 4
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
6.5
Spend in Private Labels has increased across all sectors,
except Home Care. Volume of Home Care is in decline,
and is characterised by a reduced purchase frequency,
spend per shopper, and volume per shopper. Personal
Care has gained buyers, although they are light buyers.
MAT Q1 11
Ireland – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
FMCG
-5
1
2
Top 4
-4
1
2
Other Multiples
-2
-7
-12
Discounters
5
9
13
Drugstores
-9
0
-12
Total Independents
-14
0
5
-7
Specialist
-17
-1
-17
-7
All Others
-25
0
-8
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1
0
12
13
2
-4
Consumer Index
Italy Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+1.0%
+2.2%
+4.7%
+3.2%
+0.7%
Italy - Trade Channels
31.6
30.4
30.1
8.4
8.7
8.8
45.2
46.0
46.1
Discounters
Hypermarkets
14.8
14.9
14.9
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
6.5
MAT Q1 11
Italy - Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
0
-1
1
Hypermarkets
0
-1
1
Supermarkets
0
0
1
Discounters
0
0
2
Other
-2
-2
1
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Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
0
-1
1
Fresh Foods
-1
0
3
Chilled Foods
-1
-1
1
Packaged Grocery
-1
-1
1
Frozen Foods
2
2
0
Soft Drinks
-1
-4
-2
Personal Care
0
-2
0
Home Care
1
-1
-2
Pet Foods
1
3
6
Q1 2011
1
3
2
0
2
-2
-3
-5
6
There have been no major changes in shopping
behaviour in Italy over the last quarter, although inflation
of fuel prices has led to an increase in FMCG prices –
particularly food.
FMCG Value Share %
Supermarkets
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Italy - FMCG Category Trends
Other
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Q1 2011
1
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1
4
1
As a result of these food price increases, Discounters
and Private Label have benefited this quarter as Italian
shoppers have sought cheaper alternatives.
Hypermarkets and Supermarkets have experienced a
relatively stable quarter in Q1 2011.
Meanwhile both Personal Care and Home Care
have suffered this quarter in both value and volume
terms. Modern Trade channels have suffered in these
categories due to the development of specialist Home
and Personal Care retailers.
Consumer Index
Netherlands Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+2.8%
+1.2%
-6.7%
-2.0%
+0.9%
FMCG Value Share %
15.8
15.5
14.9
13.6
13.4
13.6
70.6
71.1
71.5
MAT Q1 11
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
-3
Supermarkets
-1
0
2
Hard Discounters
-3
3
2
Other
-8
-2
-1
0
Q1 2011
0
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-3
0
1
Fresh Foods
-1
4
4
Chilled Foods
-3
1
0
-1
Packaged Grocery
-4
-1
1
-1
Frozen Foods
-3
-3
0
-1
Alcohol
-3
-2
3
-1
Soft Drinks
-2
-6
-3
1
Personal Care
-2
0
0
1
Home Care
2
-4
-4
Pet Foods
-6
3
-2
1
-1
-3
The increase in Fresh Foods in Q1 2011 can be
explained by the increase in price of Fresh Fruit &
Vegetables. The prices of summer fruit were especially
high this year.
1
0
3
-4
0
FMCG
For 2011 we expect an increase of the FMCG-market
of around 1%. This is strongly dependent on the
development of prices for raw commodities.
Netherlands - Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q1 2011
The growth of the Supers channel is mainly driven by
a continuous improvement of the position of Albert
Heijn. Other competitors such as the new purchasing
organisation Bijeen and Superunie have lost market
share in MAT Q1 2011.
Supermarkets
6.5
Q4 2010
The decrease in confidence in the economy has put the
“other channels” under pressure. Customers chose hard
discounters or supermarkets as they traded down from
specialist shops in MAT Q1 2011.
Hard Discounters
MAT Q1 10
Q3 2010
We see a very small decrease of the total FMCG market
in Q1 2011 in comparison with Q1 2010. There have
been fewer visits per buyer, but the average basket size
in terms of value has slightly increased.
Netherlands - Trade Channels
MAT Q1 09
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Netherlands - FMCG Category Trends
Other
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Consumer Index
Portugal Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
-0.5%
+2.5%
+6.9%
+0.7%
-2.9%
Portugal – Trade Channels
FMCG Value Share %
11.8
0.6
10.0
6.2
15.9
16.1
66.2
67.7
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
9.2
5.6
16.2
Traditionals
Discounters
69.0
Hypermarkets/
Supermarkets
MAT Q1 11
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
-2
-1
6
Hypermarkets
-1
0
8
Discounters
2
1
5
Traditionals
-3
-3
-4
Other
-13
-3
-3
Tel: +44 208967 1655
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Q1 2011
-1
1
0
-9
-11
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
-4
-1
6
Fresh Foods
-3
4
3
Chilled Foods
-1
-2
1
Packaged Grocery
-4
-1
11
Frozen Foods
-2
-2
5
Alcohol
0
1
5
Soft Drinks
-2
-4
-7
Personal Care
-4
-6
7
Home Care
3
-3
0
Pet Foods
13
8
2
Q1 2011
-1
1
-1
-2
-1
-3
-2
0
-3
0
The fall in GDP during the first quarter of 2011 was the second in
succession, confirming Portugal’s technical recession. The economy
decreased 0.5% compared with the same period in 2010, principally
because of fewer households and less public administration
expenditure and investment. The GDP for 2011 is currently forecasted
to fall by 2%. Some good news is that exports are expected to
continue to grow in 2011.
In March, the government resigned because the parliament did not
approve the 4th program of austerity measures in one year. Portugal
was forced to ask for international financial help in order to honour
government payments. Unemployment rate reached its highest ever
level of 12.4% in the first quarter. FMCG Value and Volume decreased
for Portuguese households. Shopping behaviour is changing again in
order to adapt to the new circumstances; spending less, purchasing
more frequently and spending less per trip. Portuguese shoppers have
are also buying less in the traditional stores switching to Private Labels.
Private Label’s share of the market reached 37% in the first quarter.
Spend on non essential categories such as lamps, chocolate bars,
batteries, selected/special milk, smoothies, seafood, sport drinks, amongst
others is decreasing. Some basic and food categories such as frozen
meat, ice-creams, ready to eat food, spices and herbs, frozen potatoes,
canned tomato, amongst others are growing.
Portugal – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
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Pingo Doce announced that it would fully absorb the 2%pp VAT
increase effective since January 1st. Lidl also ran some temporary
campaigns related to not increasing VAT. On the March 15th Sonae
completed the conversion of all Modelo stores in to Continente stores.
Continente growth was supported by intense mass media and high
profile advertising investments with the goal of supporting national
production as one of the new shopping drivers.
In November 2010 a change to the law meant that hypermarkets were
now able to open on Sundays, with the exception of Viana do Castelo
and Almada. Sonae (Continente) and Auchan (Jumbo and Pão de
Açúcar) benefitted most from this decision. TV advertising during the
first quarter of 2011 has been most heavy with the two main insignias,
Continente and Pingo Doce.
Consumer Index
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GDP (Value)
+3.8%
+0.5%
+6.0%
0.6%
+3.2%
FMCG Value Share %
21.6
20.8
17.2
28.3
29.1
31.3
Supermarkets
33.6
32.5
Hypermarkets
16.5
17.6
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
21.4
MAT Q1 11
Scandinavia – Trade Channels Trends
Q3 2010
Q3 2010
FMCG
1
3
2
Hypermarkets
8
5
1
Supermarkets
-6
0
-3
Discounters
4
6
7
Other
5
5
3
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
1
4
2
0
Fresh Foods
-4
-3
-8
0
Chilled Foods
2
5
2
Packaged Grocery
7
5
2
Frozen Foods
3
5
0
Soft Drinks
0
3
0
6
Personal Care
5
2
4
6
Home Care
2
3
-1
Pet Foods
8
10
2
5
6
-5
7
6
Private label share of the market is smaller in Scandinavia
compared to the rest of Europe, but is growing. A good
example of Pl growth is the high end PL Änglemark from
COOP which by many is considered to be the most
successful launch/re-launch of the year.
Prices in Scandinavia are increasing, which has a negative
psychological effect on consumption. Although trip size and
average spend per buyer decreased in Q1 compared to last
year, the general trend over the last two years has been for
an increase in these measures. Frequency of purchase has
increased compared to Q1 last year.
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
The trend for switching of market share from supermarkets to
discounters is still the major force in retail space. The retailer’s
private labels are often used as a bargaining tool in many
categories which are dominated by branded goods and
import restrictions.
30.1
6.5
Q2 2010
Total FMCG consumption is decreasing compared to Q1
2010, particularly driven by Frozen foods. Hypermarkets
and Supermarkets are the principal drivers of the fall in total
FMCG value, whereas Discounters continue to grow.
Scandinavia – Trade Channels
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0
-2
-4
3
3
Danish economists forecast increasing prices of general
shopping and also of energy sources such as oil, fuel and
electricity. However, these trends are not the same in Norway.
With a record low unemployment rate, low interest rates and
growing GDP, Norwegian households are experiencing a
strong economy.
Consumer Index
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GDP (Value)
+0.7%
+0.6%
+6.7%
+2.1%
-4.7%
Spain - Trade Channels
Other
36.5
35.5
Hard Discounters
7.0
3.2
7.1
3.1
Supermarkets
38.0
39.4
15.3
14.9
32.8
Soft Discounters
7.5
3.6
71,4
41.7
-1
-4
Hypermarkets
-9
-8
-5
Supermarkets
2
4
4
Hard Discounters
6
20
8
Soft Discounters
1
8
0
Other
-13
-8
-13
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
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-1
-4
Fresh Foods
-4
-1
-4
Chilled Foods
-10
-5
-5
Packaged Grocery
-4
0
-4
Frozen Foods
-2
6
1
Alcohol
-4
0
-10
Soft Drinks
-5
-3
-7
Personal Care
-3
0
2
Home Care
-4
1
-4
-2
-4
-3
2
1
-2
-4
5
0
Shoppers have continued to spend more on the
Personal Care category following a strong Christmas
campaign. Meanwhile Fresh Foods – and particularly
Dairy products have experienced decline year on year.
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
-5
-5
Private Label has continued to develop in the food
market, but this development has slowed down
amongst non-food categories – particularly Personal
Care.
MAT Q1 11
FMCG
FMCG
Q4 2011
14.4
6.5
Spain - Trade Channels Trends
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
In Spanish households, shopping habits developed
during the economic crisis have remained throughout
Q1 2011. Hard Discounters have continued to grow and
experienced large growth year on year.
Hypermarkets
MAT Q1 10
Q3 2010
Strong negative performance for the FMCG market in
January and February prevented the growth seen in
March from prevailing overall for Q1 2011, with Total
FMCG falling 2% in value terms when compared to the
same period last year.
FMCG Value Share %
Q2 2010
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-3
0
11
0
-6
Consumer Index
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CATEGORIES UNIVERSE:
FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...)
Total FMCG is not necessarily the sum of the categories shown below it.
Categories:
• Fresh Foods: fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh poultry/game, fresh fruit, vegetables, salads
• Chilled Foods: chilled deli products, chilled dairy products, chilled bakery products
• Packaged Grocery: bread, biscuits, canned goods, hot beverages, packet breakfast, pickles, sauces, condiments,
savoury carbohydrates and snacks, home cooking ingredients, take home confectionery and savouries
• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks and mineral water
• Home Care: softeners, detergents and rinse conditioners
• Personal Care: bathroom toiletries, hair care, healthcare, oral care, other toiletries
TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITIONS:
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Selling area from
400m2 to 2000m2
Hard Discounters
Hofer, Lidl
Soft Discounters
Penny, Plus, Zielpunkt
Austria
Selling area > 2000m2
(excluding hard
discounters)
France
Selling area > 2500m2 Selling area : 400m2 to Lidl, Aldi, Norma,
2500m2 (excluding
Colruyt
hard discounters)
Great Britain
Top 4 multiples: Tesco, Asda,
Sainsbury's, Morrison
Lidl, Aldi, Netto
no soft discounters
Aldi, Lidl, Norma
Penny, Plus, Netto
Germany
Selling area from
Small hypermarkets:
400m2 to 800m2
800m2 - 1500m2
Medium hypermarkets:
1500m2 - 5000m2
Large hypermarkets:
> 5000m2
Group Carrefour,
Sklavenitis,
AB-Vasilopoulos,
Veropoulos (Spar),
Galaksias, Atlantik,
Masoutis,
My Market,
Arvanitidis, Other
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
no hypermarkets
Typical multiple
(no hypermarkets
in this country)
Assortment must
include Grocery,
white and brown
Domestic Appliances,
Clothing and Footwear.
Selling area :
400m2 to 2500m2
(excluding hard
discounters)
no hypermarkets
All retailers excluding
hard discounters
Ed, Leader Price, Netto,
Le Mutant
Dia, Lidl, Aldi
Aldi, Lidl
Specialists such as
pharmacies,
butchers, bakeries,
fishmongers, etc.
no soft discounters
Lidl, Eurospar, Dico, Penny
Aldi, Lidl
no soft discounters
Portugal
Selling area > 2500m2 Selling area < 2500m2
Lidl, Minipreco
no soft discounters
Aldi, Lidl
Scandinavia
Selling area > 2500m3 Sellin area from
450m2 to 2550m2
Netto, Willys, Rema
1000, Coma, Alta,
Kiwi, Coop Prix
Aldi, Lidl, Plus, Familia
(Eroski group)
Dia, Maxi Dia, Dia
Market
Spain
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Selling area :
400m2 to 2500m2
(excluding hard
discounters)
Others
Consumer Index
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METHODOLOGY:
• A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing
details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning methodology, each panel member
records the details of every item they purchase.
• Sample sizes in number of households: Austria: 2,800; GB: 25,000; Germany: 30,000; Greece: 1,250 euros; France:
20,000; Ireland: 2,650 (2,000 Republic + 650 N.I); Italy: 8,000; Portugal: 2,500; Spain: 12,000; Netherlands: 6,000;
Sweden: 3,000; Denmark: 3,000.
•Category , channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency (except Scandinavia which is
provided in Euro).
•Other value indicators are based on Euro.
KEY INDICATORS :
Panel data indicators
• Frequency of FMCG purchase: Frequency of FMCG purchase during the quarter compared with the same quarter
the previous year.
• FMCG Average Basket Size: Average amount spent per trip in FMCG during the quarter compared with the same
quarter the previous year.
Eurostat data indicators:
• Food price index: Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are produced and published using a common
index reference period (2005=100).
• Unemployment: Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who were without work during the
reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or
had already found a job to start within the next three months.
• Constant Price GDP (based on Euro currency): Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices is the final result
of the production activity of resident producer units (ESA 1995, 8.89). It is defined as the value of all goods and
services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. Data are calculated as chain-linked
volumes (i.e. data at previous year’s prices, linked over the years via appropriate growth rates). Growth rates with
respect to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1) are calculated from calendar and seasonally adjusted figures while growth
rates with respect to the same quarter of the previous year (Q/Q-4) are calculated from raw data.
KEY COUNTRY FACTS:
Source: CIA World Fact Book
Country
Austria
Denmark
France
Germany
Great Britain
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
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Individual Population Number Of Households
(in 000's)
(in 000's)
8,217
5,529
65,312
81,471
62,698
10,737
4,670
61,016
16,847
10,760
46,754
9,088
3,500
2,500
26,600
38,500
25,400
2,300
21,700
7,200
3,800
16,300
4,500
GDP per Capita
(2010 est.)
$40,300
$36,700
$33,300
$35,900
$35,100
$32,100
$37,700
$30,700
$40,500
$23,000
$29,500
$39,000
Q1 201
1
Consumer Index
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Consumer Index
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Contents
Total Europe – Shopping Behaviour
p.2
Trade Channel and Category Trends
•Bosnia
•Bulgaria
•Croatia
•Czech Republic
•Hungary
•Kazakhstan
•Poland
•Romania
•Russia
•Serbia
•Slovakia
•Ukraine
•Definitions
•Sources and methodology
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 8
p. 9
p.10
p.11
p.12
p.13
p.14
p.15
p.16
FMCG Consumer Dashboard
% Value Change Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010
Bosnia &
Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
FMCG
Fresh Food
Chilled Food
Packaged Grocery
Frozen Food
Alcohol
Soft Drinks
Personal Care
Home Care
Pet Food
Increase of more than 0.5%
Decrease of more than 0.5%
Increase/decrease of 0.5% or less
Category not covered
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Ukraine
Consumer Index
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NA
NA
NA
-7.8%
+4.3%
Bosnia – Trade Channels
FMCG Value Share %
Other
53.0
48.4
Supermarkets
25.5
26.1
27.5
18.5
20.6
24.1
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Hypermarkets
Bosnia - Trade Channel Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
2
3
6
Hypermarkets
27
20
30
2
Supermarkets
3
9
10
2
Other
-8
-7
-5
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Bosnia - FMCG Category Trends
GDP (Value)
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Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
2
3
6
Chilled Foods
4
9
9
Packaged
-2
0
8
Alcohol
3
5
-4
Soft Drinks
-2
-2
3
Personal Care
6
8
0
6
5
Home Care
16
Q1 2011
-4
-2
1
-16
-3
-10
-14
‘Other’ Trade channels now account for less than
half of the Bosnian market. Amongst ‘Other’ trade
channels, the share of Traditional Stores has decreased
significantly in Q1 2011 when compared to the previous
year.
Both Hypermarkets and Supermarkets have increased
their share year on year, and combined now account for
almost 52% of channel share in Bosnia.
The majority of categories suffered this quarter
compared to the same period last year – the only
category to show slight growth in terms of value
being Packaged Grocery (Cereals being the biggest
contributor to this growth).
Meanwhile, Private Label has grown share across all
categories in Q1 2011 compared to the same period in
2010.
-4
-10
Please note:
- Category, channel data and Average Basket size data
are based on local currency
- GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency
Consumer Index
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+1.5%
+6.0%
+18.1%
-2.1%
+3.3%
Bulgaria – Trade Channels
12.1
11.6
0.3
0.3
Small Grocery
Shops
56.8
52.8
10.3
0.3
50.8
Cash & Carry
Discounters
1.8
3.3
2.2
0.2
2.6
0.0
27.3
32.5
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 20
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
3
5
8
Chilled Foods
2
5
16
Packaged Grocery
5
6
7
Alcohol
12
9
10
Soft Drinks
-3
5
-2
-5
Personal Care
-1
6
2
-5
Home Care
1
1
-6
Q1 2011
1
3
4
3
-6
Despite the growth in share of Supermarkets and
Hypermarkets, this growth is due to Hypermarkets and
not Supermarkets which have seen their market share
decline over the past four quarters.
31.9
Supermarkets &
Hypermarkets
Q2 2010
Hard discounters have continued to thrive into 2011
in Bulgaria whilst the majority of trade channels have
experienced decline year-on-year. In the space of a
year, 57% of Bulgarian households made at least one
purchase in a Discounter. Alongside Small Grocery
Shops, Discounters have driven FMCG growth this
quarter.
FMCG Value Share %
Street Vendors +
open markets
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MAT Q1 11
Traditional trade channels remain very popular amongst
Bulgarian households despite a slight decline in
share. This decline is mainly due to shoppers visiting
Traditional Stores less frequently.
Bulgaria – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
3
6
8
Supermarkets &
Hypermarkets
10
7
3
Discounters
Q1 2011
1
-6
64
Cash & Carry
-17
-2
-11
Small Grocery
Shops
-3
3
7
Street Vendors +
open markets
16
21
17
Other
-5
-7
-8
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293
Whilst overall the FMCG market in Bulgaria has
experienced growth in the first quarter of 2011 when
compared to the same period last year, not all segments
have contributed to this growth – Home Care displaying
the largest decline.
-26
1
-35
-12
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GDP (Value)
-0.8%
+3.6%
+29.5%
+5.7%
-1.5%
FMCG Value Share %
Other
46.9
44.5
42.0
4.5
5.7
7.1
30.0
28.6
27.6
18.6
21.3
23.3
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Discounters
MAT Q1 09
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
-7
-6
-1
4
Chilled Foods
-8
-4
0
4
Packaged Grocery
-5
-6
0
Alcohol
-20
-17
-8
Soft Drinks
-11
-9
-6
Personal Care
-7
-6
2
Home Care
1
-2
1
Pet food
23
7
-1
7
9
0
4
-6
Private Label has performed very well in Croatia showing
growth across all categories.
Discounters are displaying the biggest growth year on
year for Q1 2011, closely followed by Hypermarkets.
Despite increased spending this quarter compared to the
same period last year; Croatian households continue to
choose stores based on prices and promotions.
Croatia – Trade Channels
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
-7
-6
-1
Hypermarkets
-2
3
5
Supermarkets
-8
-9
1
Discounters
14
16
21
Other
-10
-12
-8
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Q1 2011
4
22
-8
33
-1
8
When compared to previous quarters, Q1 2011 shows
a positive period of growth for the FMCG market –
the Home Care category being the only area to have
performed negatively, whilst Alcohol and Petfood are
displaying the biggest increase year on year.
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Please note:
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GDP (Value)
+3.1%
+4.3%
-10.4%
-2.3%
+6.3%
Czech Republic – Trade Channels
Discounters
Supermarkets
18.9
18.4
18.9
15.8
16.5
16.3
35.4
37.3
MAT Q4 08
MAT Q4 09
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
2
4
5
Fresh Foods
25
18
14
Chilled Foods
4
6
4
Packaged Grocery
1
5
6
Frozen Foods
26
29
19
Alcohol
0
7
4
Soft Drinks
-1
-2
-5
Personal Care
0
-6
7
Home Care
8
0
7
Pet Foods
26
30
33
Q1 2011
4
-2
5
8
31
5
-4
5
-2
6
Category trends
Year-on-year the expenditures of Czech household on FMCG
+ Pet Food purchases increased by 4 %. 80 % of those
expenditures were spend on branded products and 20 % on
products of private labels. In 1Q 2011 the promo purchases
of branded FMCG products increased and reached the level
of 38 %.
24.2
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27.8
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Retail Trade trends:
When shopping, households preferred hypermarkets which
reached 39 % market share in total FMCG value (2 p.p.
improvement in y-o-y comparison).
Hypermarkets
39.3
MAT Q1 11
All the other formats were losing its share in favour of
hypermarkets, but discounters (19 %), supermarkets (14 %)
and self-services (15 %) still has a strong position.
In 1Q of 2011 the share of TOP 10 FMCG retailers in Czech
Republic remained the same as in the 2010 (79 %) and is one
of the highest in CEE region.
Czech Republic – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
FMCG
2
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
4
Q1 2011
Market leader among retailers is Kaufland followed by Tesco,
Penny Market and Lidl.
5
4
Hypermarkets
12
14
14
Supermarkets
-7
0
-2
Discounters
0
2
-2
Other
-4
-4
1
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10
1
7
-4
Categories with the highest share of private label products
were spray cream, tissues, UHT milk, potato sticks, salty
mixes (over 55 % in terms of HH expenditures).
Consumer Index
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+2.5%
+9.6%
-1.8%
-14.3%
+14.1%
Hungary – Trade Channels
7.5
1.1
7.3
1.4
7.5
1.6
23.2
24.3
24.1
2.3
Small Grocery
Shops
20.7
Cash & Carry
1.7
1.2
18.1
19.9
20.1
20.2
Hypermarkets
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
-3
1
6
Chilled Foods
-3
4
12
Packaged Grocery
-11
-9
-3
Frozen Foods
7
19
-12
Alcohol
36
42
38
Soft Drinks
-5
-2
3
0
Personal Care
-7
-14
0
0
Home Care
-14
-13
-17
Pet Foods
17
15
36
-1
4
-3
-5
-12
-6
0
The negative market environment is contributes to the growth
of discount channel, and small independent stores can also
grow due to growing importance of near-home shopping.
The market share other trade channels dropped in Q1 2011
19.2
Discounters
25.0
27.2
26.4
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Supermarkets
Q3 2010
FMCG
Economic recovery following the economic crisis has been
delayed. In 2011 Q1 FMCG market value grew with a level,
which is smaller than inflation, indicating shrinking market
in real terms. Consumer confidence is dropping again, and
there is a growing inflation (food inflation is over 10% in April
2010).
FMCG Value Share %
Street Vendors +
open markets
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Other
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Hungary – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
FMCG
-3
1
6
Hypermarkets
8
19
20
-4
Supermarkets
-2
-11
-12
-5
Discounters
-11
4
9
Cash & Carry
-23
-2
-18
Small Grocery
Shops
-6
-6
4
Street Vendors +
open markets
-4
-4
37
Other
-6
-11
5
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
-1
9
-28
-2
14
3
Please note:
Consumer Index
Kazakhstan Q1 2011
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GDP (Value)
NA
NA
NA
-14.2%
+25.1%
Kazakhstan – Trade Channels
Other
80.7
83.2
25.1
0.2
0.2
16.8
19.3
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Kazakhstan – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
7
FMCG
10
Supermarkets
Drugstores
7
2
Street Vendors +
open markets
Other
-1
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
15
15
18
Fresh Foods
10
11
13
Chilled Foods
26
32
35
Packaged Grocery
13
10
19
Frozen Foods
4
17
24
Alcohol
11
4
-9
Soft Drinks
-3
5
-2
Personal Care
18
12
10
Home Care
24
10
12
Pet Food
41
-2
-26
Q1 2011
7
32
-14
17
22
-7
0
2
-3
-4
The unemployment rate in Kazakhstan comprised 5.5% for
period January-March 2011 in accordance with the official State
statistics. Average salary in the 1st quarter 2011 was 405 EUR
in comparison with 334 EUR in the 1st quarter 2010 (official
exchange rate EUR/KZT is used). Inflation rate increased from
6.2% in 2009 to 7.8% in 2010.
Drugstores
26.5
Q2 2010
Total FMCG, calculation based upon GfK Consumer Tracking
fmcg basket of monitored product categories, increased by 7.2%
in value in the 1st quarter 2011 in comparison with the same one
previous year. If compared on yearly level, total FMCG growth
was much higher, 28.8% in value. Shoppers spent more per one
trip to the outlet which was the main source of such growth.
FMCG Value Share %
Supermarkets
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Street Vendors +
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Category Trends (3 key sentences)
Chilled food had the largest decrease in Q1 2011 compared
with Q1 2010. Alcohol products was on the second place after
chiled food. There are categories that had considerable increase
[value based] like Fresh food (+32.0%), Frozen food (+22.4%),
Packaged grocery(+16.7%).
Channel Trade Trends: (approximately 100 words)
Shoppers' spending in supermarkets increased by 9.5% in value
in the 1st quarter 2011 in comparison with the same one previous
year in Kazakhstan. Direct sales showed significant increase by
34.8% whereas street trade stayed practically on the same level
(-0.6%)as in the 1st quarter 2010.
METRO Cash & Carry, which opened its first store in the capital
city Astana in 2009, opened 3 more outlets on the territory of
Kazakhstan in 2010: 2 stores in Almaty and 1 store in Karaganda.
Tel: +44 2089671655
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Consumer Index
Poland Q1 2011
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GDP (Value)
+4.1%
+6.2%
-5.1%
-7.8%
+3.2%
Poland – Trade Channels
Other
6.9
1.5
5.4
1.0
Street Vendors +
open markets
27.8
24.0
4.5
0.8
20.4
1.6
1.7
Cash & Carry
22.3
Discounters
17.3
23.7
28.8
19.8
19.6
22.3
24.4
24.3
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
Supermarkets
Q1 2011
FMCG
0
1
0
-5
Hypermarkets
5
8
1
-6
Supermarkets
7
3
5
-6
Discounters
15
19
18
-6
-7
-11
-13
-12
-13
Cash & Carry
Small Grocery
Shops
Street Vendors +
open markets
-32
-24
-28
Other
-24
-20
-21
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
FMCG
0
1
0
Chilled Foods
2
2
0
Packaged Grocery
1
2
1
Soft Drinks
-1
4
1
Personal Care
-4
-3
-3
Home Care
-4
-4
-4
Q1 2011
-5
-4
-6
-4
-5
-4
Channel Trade Trends:
Discounters are still growing and are strengthening their
position as the main trade channel in terms of value as
well as value share. This was the only channel which noted
positive trend in terms of value shares Q1 2011 vs. Q1
2010. All other channels suffered losses in terms of value
purchases.
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
This is caused by changing shopper behaviour e.g. the
shopper purchases goods less frequently (-7,8%) and for
less amount of money per household (-4,9%). Moreover
the increased trip size +3,2% indicates that there has been
a change in chosen channel. This is also linked to Private
Label growth in these categories: we observed double digit
increase. Overal there is a positive trend for Private Labels.
Poland – Trade Channels Trends
Q3 2010
Q3 2010
In general the fastest declining categories in terms of value
are: packed grocery and personal care.
Hypermarkets
Q2 2010
Q2 2010
Category Trends:
The FMCG purchases in the first quarter of 2011 have
declined by -4,9% due to the fact that Easter seasonal
peak was in March 2010 and this year it was in April 2011
(so in different quarter and it will be visible in the second
quarter of 2011).
FMCG Value Share %
2.0
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Small Grocery
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16
-9
-19
-29
-20
Please note:
- In 2010 GfK Poland introduced scanners to the
households and also reconstructed the panel structure
- Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are
based on local currency
Consumer Index
Romania Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+1.7%
+9.2%
-6.7%
-5.3%
Hypermarkets
18
19
21
Supermarkets
14
13
13
Discounters
6
3
9
2
10
1
41
41
40
Cash & Carry
4
4
4
14
12
11
MAT Q4 09
MAT Q4 10
Q1 2011
-5
-7
-5
Hypermarkets
-3
-2
3
12
Supermarkets
-9
-7
-8
11
Discounters
8
-2
1
-17
-16
-10
Small Grocery
Shops
-6
-8
-7
Street Vendors +
open markets
-3
-12
-10
Other
-12
-15
Tel: +44 2089671655
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-10
-5
Chilled Foods
-6
-6
-6
Packaged Grocery
-2
-2
0
Alcohol
-9
-11
-5
Soft Drinks
-9
-10
-10
Personal Care
-8
-14
-13
Home Care
-4
-7
-5
4
8
15
-3
-17
1
5
Hypermarkets cover around 23% of total sales and represent by far
the most important channel within Modern Trade. Kaufland became
even stronger in Q1 2011 with 11% of total spend, followed by Real &
Carrefour Hypermarkets each with 4% value share.
FMCG
Cash & Carry
-7
Modern trade continued to gain share against traditional formats and
reached 47% within total FMCG expenditure, meanwhile small grocery
shops lost market share by 3%.
MAT Q1 11
Q4 2010
-5
This led to Romanian consumers shopping less frequently and looking
for low price products.
Q3 2010
FMCG
Q1 2011
Food categories were the most affected by the price increase. Both
packaged chilled & grocery products showed the highest level of change
in value from 12-15%.
Romania – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
In the first quarter of 2011, spend on FMCG increased by 4% compared
with Q1 2010. This was mainly influenced by the high level of inflation
rate which reached 8.8%.
FMCG Value Share %
Other
Q3 2010
+8.8%
Romania – Trade Channels
Street Vendors +
open markets
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Small Grocery
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Discounters have also continued their positive evolution, however at a
slower rate than hypermarkets, recording more than 10% in total sales.
Among discounters, Penny Market & Plus each counted for around 4%
market share, followed by Profi with an increasing value share from 1.6%
to 2.3% in Q1 2011.
The territorial expansion of modern trade formats and the price oriented
consumers strongly influenced Private Labels evolution, which increased
from 5% to 8.2% value share in Q1 2011.
-15
-4
3
7
Please note:
- Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on
local currency
Consumer Index
Russia Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
NA
NA
NA
+6.7%
+11.3%
Russia – Trade Channels
22.7
18.5
19.4
15.6
14.8
29.9
29.6
1.4
12.8
14.5
29.7
Discounters
0.9
10.9
Supermarkets
12.8
5.1
7.8
7.2
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
MAT Q1 11
14.1
13.0
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
16
Hypermarkets
39
26
22
Supermarkets
25
19
10
Discounters
16
25
36
34
Cash & Carry
48
-2
18
36
Small Grocery
Shops
3
5
15
-1
10
Other
0
2
13
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
15
Chilled Foods
14
13
13
Packaged Grocery
5
4
25
Frozen Foods
9
10
20
Alcohol
-3
5
26
Soft Drinks
-1
16
9
Personal Care
0
-2
-5
Home Care
5
3
2
15
17
32
12
4
1
-5
3
As usual, Modern Trade continued to gain share. Among
Modern Trade the fastest growing channels were Discounters
and Cash& Carry (+33.6% and 35.6% respectively) in
comparison with the same period last year. Discounters grew
mainly to Pyaterochka and C&C grew mainly due to Lenta.
8
-7
12
Private label represented a slight growth and gained market
share of 1.3%.
7
Street Vendors +
open markets
10
18
The fastest growing category is Packaged Grocery (+32.5%).
Q3 2010
Fresh Foods
Q1 2011
All categories performed well in Q1 2011, except the Personal
Care category, which continued demonstrating decline in
value terms (-4.9%).
1.6
Russia – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
FMCG
16
Private label share continued to gain market share.
Cash & Carry
Hypermarkets
Q4 2010
8
Key FMCG categories kept increasing in value terms, except
in the Personal Care Category.
18.0
Small Grocery
Shops
Q3 2010
7
In Q1 2011Total FMCG saw a 17.9% growth in comparison
with the same period last year. Value growth was caused by
both an increase in value per trip and purchase frequency.
FMCG Value Share %
Street Vendors +
open markets
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9
8
17
12
23
Traditional Trade demonstrates significant growth as well and
remains of great importance to the FMCG sector.
Please note:
Consumer Index
Serbia Q1 2011
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Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
NA
NA
NA
-12.7%
+8.6%
FMCG Value Share %
8.0
3.4
9.0
0.1
3.3
9.1
0.2
3.0
54.1
52.6
53.6
Cash & Carry
6.2
6.6
6.0
Supermarkets
23.3
23.6
23.3
Small Grocery
Shops
5.0
5.0
4.8
MAT Q4 09
MAT Q4 10
MAT Q1 11
-3
-2
-5
Hypermarkets
-7
3
-5
Supermarkets
0
-1
-10
Cash & Carry
-15
-7
-9
Small Grocery
Shops
-2
-1
-2
Street Vendors +
open markets
-6
-15
-16
Other
-3
-5
-2
Tel: +44 2089671655
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Chilled Foods
0
-2
-8
-2
Packaged Grocery
-5
-2
-2
Alcohol
-6
0
6
Soft Drinks
-5
3
0
Personal Care
-3
-9
-15
-12
Home Care
5
-1
-11
-13
Pet Foods
35
28
24
1
5
-4
7
At the beginning of 2011, Delhaize group acquired
100% stake of Delta Maxi. The move is expected to be
completed in Q3 of this year.
-3
10
-4
-13
-3
3
109
-5
Hard Discounters
-3
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
FMCG
-5
Among the leading retailers Roda and DIS increased
there share in Q1 11 compared to Q1 10. Idea and Tempo
loosing slightly in this period
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
-2
The Cash & Carry saw the largest decrease in value this
quarter compared to Q1 2010. Roda & Tempo drove
this decline. Supermarkets and Small Shops decreased
as well but not to the same extent. Delta Maxi and
Roda responsible for the value in Small Shops. Only
Hypermarkets managed to increase in value in this period
with Roda being the biggest winner.
Serbia – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
-3
All categories decreased in volume in this period but
packaged groceries witnessed the largest decrease and
Beverages the least.
Hard Discounters
Hypermarkets
Q3 2010
FMCG
In the first quarter of this year prices have increased whilst
FMCG volume decreased considerably (12% compared to
Q1 2010).
Serbia – Trade Channels
Street Vendors +
open markets
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Please note:
Consumer Index
Slovakia Q1 2011
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GfK
Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
+3.5%
+7.2%
-8.2%
-0.2%
+5.6%
Slovakia – Trade Channels
Small Grocery
Shops
25.4
Discounters
12.7
Supermarkets
10.5
10.1
22.6
19.0
17.2
16.6
Hypermarkets
24.4
6.8
27.0
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
31.1
6.5
MAT Q1 11
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
1
2
-2
Hypermarkets
12
10
12
Supermarkets
1
-1
-6
Discounters
18
9
0
Small Grocery
Shops
-11
-6
-12
Other
-19
-3
-8
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
2
-2
Chilled Foods
6
8
-1
Packaged Grocery
0
1
-1
Frozen Foods
1
-1
-1
Alcohol
2
9
5
Soft Drinks
-2
-6
-5
Personal Care
-6
-7
-7
Home Care
-3
0
-5
Pet Foods
-2
-6
2
Q1 2011
5
4
7
35
7
3
1
-3
Q1 2011
5
21
Coop Jednota, Tesco, Lidl and Kaufland proved to be
the most successful retailers in this period (value). Tesco
and Kaufland experienced a growth in market share (Q1
2011 vs. 2010).
7
1
-11
1
17
Hypermarkets are the most important trade channel
for Slovak Households showing a 4pp market share
increase (Q1 2011 vs. Q1 2010) sourcing mainly from
small shops (small self-services & over the counter
shops). Over 30% of Slovak household expenditures are
through FMCG purchases in hypermarkets.
Slovakia – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
1
FMCG grew by 5% between Q1 2010 and 2011. With
stable purchase frequency growth was driven by
increased spend per shopping trip. The main categories
to prosper in this period were frozen food and pet food.
23.2
22.7
26.3
Q3 2010
FMCG
After a rapid increase of industrial production in 2010,
the growth of the Slovak economy continued into the
first quarter of 2011 (3.5% - GDP in constant prices)
mainly thanks to export of goods and services. The
unemployment rate of 14% remains the main issue.
FMCG Value Share %
11.3
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Please note:
All indicators are based on Euro currency.
Consumer Index
Ukraine Q1 2011
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GfK
Q2 2010
GDP (Value)
NA
NA
NA
-1.9%
+11.0%
FMCG Value Share %
22.5
18.5
48.0
48.3
12.4
1.8
2.6
12.5
0.6
16.5
1.6
3.1
11.3
0.8
MAT Q1 09
MAT Q1 10
48.2
Cash & Carry
Supermarkets
Hypermarkets
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
8
10
9
Fresh Foods
10
12
11
9
Chilled Foods
14
15
22
Packaged Grocery
9
5
9
Frozen Foods
-8
-4
6
Alcohol
7
-3
-3
Soft Drinks
-2
9
0
Personal Care
6
-3
0
Home Care
3
3
0
19
8
14
-1
3
2
5
The trend of Ukrainian consumers favoring traditional products
and opting for home cooking continues. Premium brands as
a result have weakened whilst private label has increased, but
its share remains the same. Almost all categories increased in
value but are static or decreasing in volume.
14.6
Street Vendors +
open markets
Discounters
Q3 2010
9
Increases in utility prices and public transport forced
consumers to optimise their spending on FMCG during the first
quarter of 2011.
Ukraine – Trade Channels
Small Grocery
Shops
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20.4
1.3
3.3
11.4
0.7
MAT Q1 11
Among modern trade channels Discounters continue to show
the most positive development, though their share of the total
market is still small. Auchan & ATB (local discounter) are the
most successful retailers but notably traditional smaller grocery
shops continue to prosper from the changing consumer
purchase behavior.
Ukraine – Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
FMCG
9
8
10
Hypermarkets
23
11
-9
Supermarkets
8
10
14
Discounters
22
12
17
Cash & Carry
-22
-12
-15
Small Grocery
Shops
65
38
28
Street Vendors +
open markets
9
8
10
Other
-25
-17
-9
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Q1 2011
9
-4
6
18
1
19
9
-1
Please note:
Consumer Index
Definitions
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FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...)
Total FMCG is not necessarily the sum of the categories shown below it.
Categories:
• Fresh Foods: fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh poultry/game, fresh fruit, vegetables, salads
• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks and mineral water
TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITIONS:
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Mainly food assortment; over 400
m2 (Konzum, Interex, Dzanovic,
Robot Commerce, Zvornicanka,
Mercator, Tropic, Bingo...)
Discounters
Cash &
Carry
Small Grocery
Shops
Street Vendors +
open markets
Others
Offering a broad food and non-food
assortment; selling to licensed customers
(Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops,
fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers,
kiosks, open market places, door-to-door,
producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations,
news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets
up to 400 m2 (Lora, Klas, Dzanovic, DP
Market, Braca Karovic, Bingo, Konzum)
Limited range of food,
often selling directly
from pallets, focused
on price (Lidl)
Velpro, Slavija
n/a
Kaufland
Fantastico C&C,
Metro C&C
ARO, CBA Minimarkets,
Street Vendors,
Fantastico Minimarkets, Magazin Open Markets
345, T-Market, Minimarkets,
Vendors
Market Halls, Mixed Assortment
Agro & Food stores, specialized stores:
bakeries, butchers, chemists, etc,
door-to-door, kiosks, mail order houses /
subscr., petrol stations, tobacconists, etc.
Getro, Metro
n/a
n/a
Offering a broad food and non-food
assortment; selling to licensed customers
(Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops,
fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers,
kiosks, open market places, door-to-door,
producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations,
news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets
up to 400 m2 (Local convenience stores,
Bakmaz, Billa (Minaco), Boso, Diona, Idis,
Kerum, Konzum, KTC, Mercator, Pemo,
Prehrana, Presoflex, Studenac, Tommy, etc.)
Makro, Hopi C&C
Small self-service grocers:
Spar, COOP / Jednota, COOP
/ Jednota Tuty
Over-the-counter specialists
Street Vendors,
Open Markets
Vendors
Family Frost, petrol station, etc.
400-2,000 m2, food and non food,
400-1,000 m2, food
3-10 cash registers (Kaiser's, Match, and near-food range,
Spar, bigger Coop, CBA and Real) cosmetics and
chemical products,
3-10 cash registers
(Lidl, Penny Market,
Plus, Profi, Aldi)
Metro
Selling area less than 400 m2,
1 or 2 cash registers, range of
food and non-food articles,
belonging to named key
account (small Coop, small
CBA, small Real, small Honiker
and Heliker shops) or being
independent.
Auchan, Kaufland, Tesco,
Intermarche, Carrefour,
Real, E.Leclerc
ABC, Aldik, Alma, Asort, Billa, Bomi, Aldi, Biedronka, Lidl,
Carrefour Minut, Carrefour Express, Netto, Plus Discount
Dino, Duzy Sklep Wielobranzowy,
Eko, Elea, E.Leclerc, Euro Sklep,
Grosik, Jedynka, Marcpol,
Piotripawel, Polomarket, Rossmann,
Sano, Savia, Seic 34, Spar,
Stokrotka, Tesco Express, Tesco,
Topaz, Zatoka, Zielony Market
Eurocash, Makro,
Selgros
Food and non-food, less than
3 cash desks
Street Vendors,
Open Markets
Vendors
Carrefour Hypermarket, Cora,
Auchan Hypermarket, Spar
Hypermarket, Real, Trident,
Pic, Interex, Kaufland.
Food and non food products:
Carrefour Express, Auchan
Supermarket, Spar Supermarket,
Mega Image, Billa, G’market, Angst,
etc and independents
Metro Cash &
Carry, Selgros
Cash & Carry
Traditional shops, selling food
and non food products, kiosks
and agro & food stores
(traditional over-the-counter
shops for food, where you can
also buy personal and
household care products).
Other Shops: specialists stores, gas
Street Vendors,
market hall and open stations; drugstores; “Economat” stores,
market vendors (open etc.
spaces for trade,
especially for food
products).
Ramstore, O'Key, Auchan
Sedmoy Kontinent, Stolitsa, BIN, etc Kopeyka, Magnit,
Pyaterochka, Kopeyka
Metro
Cash&Carry
Limited food and non-food
assortment
Street Vendors and
Open Markets
1000s m2, food and
non-food assortment
Mercator, Interex, Super
Vero, M Rodić, Idea extra,
Super Maxi, Tus
Over 400m2
C Market, Pekabeta, M Rodić, Maxi,
Jabuka, Si Market, Univerexport,
Interex, Ziper 024, Impex Promet,
IDEA Super, DIS, Tus, etc
n/a
Serbia
Stores with specific
payment regulation
and/or specific
membership cards
Tempo, Metro, Roda,
Figrad, etc
Up to 400m2, miniMaxi, C
Market, Pekabeta, M Rodić,
Univerexport, Idea, Jabuka, Si
Market, Višnjica, DIS, Luki
Komerc, etc
Street Vendors, Open Specialist stores
Drogeries (DM, Lilly), Perfumeries,
Markets Vendors
Pharmacies, Door-to-Door, Bakeries,
Coffee Shops, Beverages discounts, Dairy
Shops, Candy Shops, Kiosks, etc
Food assortment. Billa, Terno,
COOP/Jednota
Limited range of food
assortment, often
selling directly from
pallets, focused on
price (Lidl, Rema
1000, etc.)
Selling to licenced
customers only
(retailers, small
entrepreneurs
(examples: Metro).
Small food-self service: Sama,
Coop Small food retailers
over-the-counter: Bala
Street Vendors, Open Gas stations,
tobacconist´s/newsstands, etc.
Markets Vendors
Slovakia
Food and non-food
assortment, minimal sales area
2500 sqm, usually offering large
car parks (examples: HM
Tesco, Hypernova, Carrefour,
Kaufland).
400-1,500 m2. ATB,
Fora, Barvinok, etc.
Selgros & Makro for
households and
Metro for businesses
Selling mainly food, less than 3
cash registers, counter or selfservice
n/a
Bosnia
Offering a broad food and
non-food assortment. Usually
offering large car parks.(Interex,
Mercator, Robot Commerce,
Merkur, Tom, Bingo...)
Bulgaria
HIT, Ramstore Hypermakets, Billa, Boila, Bonjour, Burlex, CBA
Supermarkets, ENA, Familia, Fantastico Supermarkets, Oazis,
Piccadilly, Ramstore Supermarkets, Other Supermarkets
Mainly food assortment; over 400
m2 (Bakmaz, Billa, Biljemerkant,
Boso, Diona, Idis, Jolly, Kerum, KTC,
Maxi Konzum, Mercator, Pemo,
Plodine, Presoflex, Studenac,
Tommy, etc.)
Limited range of food,
often selling directly
from pallets, focused
on price (Lidl)
Croatia
Offering a broad food and
non-food assortment. Usually
offering large car
parks.(Interspar, IperCoop,
Kaufland, Mercator hypers,
Super Konzum)
Globus, Kaufland, Interspar,
Hypernova/Hyperalbert, Tesco
hypermarket, COOP Terno,
Hypermarket
Albert, Billa, Tesco diskont, COOP /
Jednota Tempo, COOP / Jednota
Tip, COOP Supermarket;
independents
Lidl, Penny Market,
Plus, Norma, COOP
Diskont, Diskont
> 2,500 m2, more than
10,000 articles, at least
30% non-food, more than
10 cash registers (Auchan,
Cora, Interspar, Tesco)
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Russia
Ukraine
More than 400m2. Silpo, Furshet, Billa, Velyka Kyshenya, Karavan,
ProStor, Tam-Tam, Auchan, etc.
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
Lower prices for food
and non food
products: Penny
Market, Penny Market
XXL, MiniMax
Discount, Plus, Profi
n/a
Street Vendors,
Open Markets
Vendors
Mail order, direct marketing, D.I.Y etc.
Petrol stations, Pharmacies, Drugstores,
Cosmetics shops, Kiosks, Wholesalers, etc
Drugstores, Petrol stations, etc.
Direct sales, specialized stores, etc.
Consumer Index
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METHODOLOGY:
details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning/diary methodology, each panel
member records the details of every item they purchase.
• Sample sizes in number of households: Russia: 7,000 HHs; Poland: 5,000 HHs; Ukraine: 5,000 HHs; Czech
Republic: 2,000 HHs; Hungary: 2,000 HHs; Bulgaria: 2,500 HHs; Romania: 2,200 HHs; Croatia: 1,500 HHs;
Slovakia: 1,500 HHs; Serbia: 1,500 HHs; Bosnia&Herzegovina: 1,000 HHs.
• Category, channels data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency.
KEY INDICATORS :
• Frequency of FMCG purchase: Frequency of FMCG purchase during the quarter compared with the same quarter
the previous year.
• FMCG Average Basket Size: Average amount spent per trip in FMCG during the quarter compared with the same
quarter the previous year.
Eurostat data indicators:
• Food price index: Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are produced and published using a common
index reference period (2005=100).
• Unemployment: Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who were without work during the
reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or
had already found a job to start within the next three months.
• Constant Price GDP (based on Euro currency): Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices is the final result of
the production activity of resident producer units (ESA 1995, 8.89). It is defined as the value of all goods and
services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. Data are calculated as chainlinked volumes (i.e. data at previous year's prices, linked over the years via appropriate growth rates). Growth rates
with respect to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1) are calculated from calendar and seasonally adjusted figures while
growth rates with respect to the same quarter of the previous year (Q/Q-4) are calculated from raw data.
KEY COUNTRY FACTS:
Source: CIA World Fact Book
Country
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Poland
Romania
Russia Federation
Serbia
Slovakia
Ukraine
Tel: +44 2089671655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
(in 000's)
(in 000's)
4,622
7,093
4,483
10,190
9,976
15,522
38,441
21,904
138,739
7,310
5,477
45,134
1,100
2,900
1,500
4,400
3,800
4,392
13,400
7,300
52,700
2,500
1,900
18,200
GDP per Capita
(2010 est.)
$6,600
$12,800
$17,500
$25,600
$19,000
$12,700
$18,800
$11,500
$15,900
$11,000
$22,200
$6,700
Q1 201
1
Consumer Index
United States of America
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Total FMCG Trends
% Change (Value)
MAT Q1 10 vs. MAT Q1 11
Q1 10 vs. Q1 11
-1.2 -1.7
NORTH CENTRAL
TOTAL US
-0.9 -1.1
NORTH EAST
WA
MT
OR
MN
SD
ID
WY
NY
WI
MT
OH
IN
UT
NV
CO
PA
IA
NE
KS
IL
KY
MO
WV
VA
OK
AZ
NM
MS
TX
WESTERN
NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH
NORTHEAST
SC
AR
AL
CT
RI
MA
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
CA
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
-0.9 -1.2
VP
NI
WEST
-1.4 -2.0
ME
ND
GA
SOUTH
-1.3
LA
FL
-2.2
Consumer Index
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GDP (Value)
NA
Value)
NA
-8.2%
-1.2%
-0.6%
USA - Trade Channels
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.5
9.3
18.8
18.8
18.3
5.7
5.1
5.8
5.5
5.6
6.2
51.8
51.2
51.2
Supercenters
6.8
6.8
Grocers
MAT Q4 09
MAT Q4 10
MAT Q1 11
USA - Trade Channels Trends
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
FMCG
-3
-4
0
-2
Grocers
-3
-3
0
-2
Drug Stores
15
13
14
Mass
-7
-6
-2
-4
Supercenters
-2
-7
-4
-4
Club Stores
-6
-9
-2
Other
-6
-7
0
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
11
-5
0
Q1 2011
-2
-4
0
0
-2
0
Chilled Foods
0
2
5
Packaged Grocery
-3
-4
0
-2
Frozen Foods
-5
-7
-2
-2
Alcohol
-1
-3
0
-2
Soft Drinks
-5
-4
0
-2
0
-3
0
Home Care
-7
-11
-3
Pet Foods
-5
-11
-3
-2
0
2
-2
-5
-3
Drug Stores posted a year on year increase in dollar sales
of +10.9% which is the largest increase for any channel.
Drug stores have been expanding their product selection
to include more and more food and other FMCG products.
Consumers are buying less, more frequently, as a way of
keeping an eye on spending and it is easier to run into a
drug store for weekly fill-in trips rather than having to shop
a larger store.
Mass
Drug Stores
Q4 2010
Grocery which holds 51.2% of total FMCG had a -1.7%
decline in sales. By far the most important reason why
shoppers don’t buy a particular item at grocery stores
is that the perception is that these outlets do not offer a
competitively good price/value.
FMCG Value Share %
9.3
Q3 2010
Fresh Foods
FMCG
Personal Care
Club Stores
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Mass declined by -3.8% since these stores are largely
associated with larger pack-sizes and bulk packaging
often means a higher spend per visit. Club experienced
the largest percentage decline amongst the various
channels of -4.5%. One of the challenges facing club
stores is their membership fees. During a time when
consumers are watching their money very closely, it may
be difficult to secure new members who are willing to pay
to shop at a specific retailer.
Consumer Index
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METHODOLOGY:
details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning methodology, each panel member
records the details of every item they purchase.
• Sample size: 100,000 Households
FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods
etc...)
Categories:
• Fresh Foods: fresh eggs, fresh bread & rolls random weight fresh foods are excluded (fresh fish, meat, fruit, or
vegetables)
• Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks, mineral water and juices of all types (rrefrigerated, bottled,
canned, frozen)
• Pet Food: cat food and dog food
TRADE CHANNELS:
• Grocers: This government-defined term encompasses any retail store selling food items including not only
supermarkets but also convenience stores, supermarkets and specialty stores such as delis but excluding wholesale club
• Drug stores: Those stores that carry Health & Beauty items in addition to prescription medicines, along with larger
units that sell consumer packaged goods, limited lines of food, paper, and seasonal items
• Mass: Defined as discount stores, general merchandise stores, and variety stores or “dollar” stores
• Supercenters: A retail unit with a full line supermarket and a full line discount merchandiser under one roof; the
store may have separate or combined checkouts
• Club stores: These membership club stores are characterized by high volume on a restricted line of popular
merchandise into a no-frills environment. The average club stocks 4,000 SKU’s, 40% which are grocery items
Country
(in 000's)
(in 000's)
USA
301,621
114,996
North Central
66,389
26,100
Northeast
54,681
21,138
South
110,455
43,017
West
70,097
24,741
Tel: +44 208967 1655
[email protected]
www.europanel.com
GDP per Capita
(2007 est.)
46,000

Consumer Index

Transcription

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