Conflict Briefing Note for May 2015

CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES
CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 24, May 2015
KEY MESSAGES
PAGE
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE
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3.
POLITICAL
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4.
SOCIAL
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5.
ECONOMIC
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6. NATIONAL CONTEXT
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7.
UPDATE ON REGIONAL RESPONSE TO JAS
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8.
HOPE RISES FOR EFFECTIVE COMBATTING OF JAS
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9. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP STATES
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*Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK
Government.
** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.
Executive Summary
The stable political environment engendered by the peaceful national and state elections persisted. This
resulted in smooth and peaceful handover and inauguration of newly elected president and state
governors. Given the widespread belief that the elections that ushered in the new administrations were
relatively free and fair, there are high hopes among the population about the performance of the newly
elected governments. Managing these expectations amidst emerging fiscal crises will be the major
challenge of the new and returning administrations.
Optimism and celebrations about the political prospects of the country which had the first experience of
democratic regime alternation was dampened by severe economic challenges. These stemmed from
liquidity crises in the states, non-payment of salaries and severe scarcity of petroleum products.
The military sustained pressure on the Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS). The most
cherished result of the counter-insurgency operations was the continuous rescue of hundreds of women,
girls and children forcefully held and abused by insurgents. Reports that about 214 girls and women so far
rescued are pregnant has caused public outrage and underscored the enormity of the negative impacts of
violence against women and girls.
Although the sustained offensive by Nigerian and allied troops has significantly contained JAS attacks, the
group has remained relentless in its efforts at retaking lost territories and re-launch attacks on Maiduguri.
The desperation of JAS to remain active amidst its losses appeared to indicate its resolve to undermine the
country's stability and democratization. JAS intensified attacks on North East town and villages after the
inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari who swore to defeat the insurgent group while assuming his
new office.
Context Analysis/Conflict Profile
Political
The major political development in the country and across target states was the preparation for hand-over
and inauguration of newly elected president and governors in 31 states where elections were conducted.
The inauguration held smoothly at national level and the 31 states.
While the transition process was largely smooth, there were some tensions in relations between transition
committees established by incumbent and incoming governments. This stemmed largely from allegations
that some incumbents were withholding information from their successors. Tensions also stemmed from
allegations that outgoing administrations were taking actions that would affect the performance of the
incoming governments. Notable among such referenced actions were alleged withdrawal from treasuries,
policy pronouncements, last minute legislations and twilight appointments. One of the controversial
policies was the alleged plan of Governor Ramalan Muktar Yero to spend about N2.7bn of the Subsidy
Reinvestment Fund (SURE-P) before vacating the Government House.
Tensions appeared worse in Rivers State where the incumbent who had disputed the outcome of the
elections reportedly vowed he would not handover to his successor. This non-reconciliatory posture was
aggravated by the belated decision of the outgoing government to schedule local government elections a
week to the expiration of its tenure. Efforts to seek reprieve from the courts failed as the APC led
government disobeyed the court order and threat of boycott of the elections by the major opposition parties.
The decision of opposition parties to boycott the elections averted violent clashes. It however sowed the
seed for the prolongation of the political conflict in the state as the incoming administration vowed it would
not recognise the outcome of the elections on the ground that it was illegal.
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Apart from Rivers and Kaduna states where tensions between incumbent executives and newly elected
elections threatened to mar the transition, the handover process was smooth in most states as the
reconciliatory mode presaged by President Goodluck Jonathan's acceptance of defeat became the rule.
There were different peace initiatives by civil society to reconcile conflicting parties. For instance in Kano
State, Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi initiated dialogue between Governor and senator-elect Kwankwaso and
Ibrahim Shekarau, former governor and education minister, who have been in opposing political parties
since 2003 the latter deposed the former as governor.
The period also witnessed mobilizations by different political, ethnic and political groups to lobby newly
elected persons and power brokers. Groups that felt alienated by outgoing governments as well as others
considered close to the outgoing governments made efforts to pledge allegiance to the new governments.
For instance, the Jasawa Development Association, which purportedly represents the interest of Hausa in
Plateau State and has been estranged by some policies of the outgoing Jonah Jang government reached
out to newly elected Simon Lalong. The group has advocated for the re-building of the Jos main market and
the creation of new district in Jos to stem the struggle between the Hausa and Berom in Jos. There are
concerns that the outcome of the elections which witnessed some re-alignment of ethnic groups in the state
over the contentious power sharing arrangement will change the character of identity politics in the state. Of
particular concern is how the Berom will react to the perceived 'loss' of power.
Political developments in some states continue to generate tensions. In Rivers, controversy over the local
government elections, clashes by protesting political loyalists and thugs of political parties and the resolve
of the incoming administration to probe the outgoing administration created anxiety among the public.
There were concerns about the feasibility of the inauguration in the absence of a chief judge until the
Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) assigned the duty to the Chief Judge of neighbouring Bayelsa
State. The intervention of the AGF provoked a controversy as some lawyers and members of the APC
questioned its legality. Although Chief Nyesome Wike was eventually sworn in as governor of the state,
there are still fears that his tenure might be truncated by judicial pronouncement. The precedent of 2007 in
which the Supreme Court decision sacked a seating governor has amplified concerns about protracted
politico-legal conflicts in Rivers State.
In Borno State, the sudden death of Senator Khalifa Ahmed Zanna, who was re-elected on March 28, has
reopened political contestation that is generating anxiety among the public. This followed fears that the
vacancy has reignited the competition between incumbent Governor Kashim Shettima and his estranged
godfather Senator Ali Modu Sheriff. NSRP sources claim that while Shettima has anointed his preferred
candidate for the purpose, Modu Sherrif is also mobilising to return to the senate that he left in 2003 to
govern Borno State. Concerns over Sherrif's candidacy stems not only from violence that might result from
his confrontation with the state governor but also his rumoured association with the JAS.
There is heightened tension in Bayelsa State where mobilizations for the state governorship elections likely
to hold in November have commenced. Incumbent Governor Seriake Dickson is being challenged by
formidable opposition, which includes a former governor, former Managing Director of the Niger Delta
Development Commission (NDDC), federal permanent secretary and former PA to former president.
Dickson is believed to have used the opportunity of the elections to position his allies in the State House of
Assembly and the National Assembly. He has also taken control of the party and allegedly orchestrated the
expulsion of key politicians including allies of former president Jonathan who are opposed to his re-election.
The political temperature of the state is also being heated by mobilizations by politicians estranged from
former president Jonathan to humiliate the president over his loss at the polls. Leading this group is Timipre
Sylva who remains aggrieved over the role of Jonathan in denying him a second term as governor of
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Bayelsa. Sylva who teamed up with Amaechi in the APC has been the arrow head of politicians that have
instigated defections from the PDP to APC and public celebration of Jonathan's loss in his home state.
Jonathan's resignation to his fate and the rumoured estrangement between Dickson and the Jonathans
have largely been responsible for averting clashes between PDP and APC supporters in the state.
Social
The intensification of counter-insurgency operations yielded more rescue of women, girls and children in
JAS captivity. The sacking of JAS from occupied communities and towns led to the rescue of a total of 769
women and girls in May. Many of the women who had not been married and had no children before being
captured by JAS reported being raped and forced into marriages by JAS. The experiences of these girls and
women have further traumatised their communities and undermined efforts to encourage internally
displaced persons to return to their homes. The female victims of rape and sexual abuse are facing double
jeopardy as their spouses and family members appear reluctant to receive them back as a result of social
stigma. Sporadic invasions by JAS militants and the increasing resort to female suicide bombers have also
undermined responses to humanitarian emergencies and reintegration of displaced persons. There is also
concern that the security searches on the body of girls and women in public places as a result of the recent
bomb explosions by female suicide bombers will undermine counter-insurgency efforts as community
members and the women and girls are becoming restive over the body searches.
Humanitarian response to the insurgency remained very challenging with rising population of displaced
persons. Although there is increasing international and national interest in supporting displaced persons,
many affected persons and communities have not been reached. There are concerns that host communities
of displaced persons are getting deserved attention and support.
Intra and inter-religious tensions remained visible in some target areas and continued to threaten peace and
security. For instance, violence was averted in Kano state when members of Izala and Qadiriyya sects
mobilised to stone a member of the Tijjaniyya sect to death. This happened at 'Maulud' celebration organised
by members of the Tijjaniyya sect. One of the speakers at the event is alleged to have said something that
was interpreted as an insult to Prophet Muhammad. Although the alleged offender was charged to the upper
Sharia court in Fagge LGA, hundreds of youth barricaded the court premises ahead of the case and set the
entire building ablaze. A crowd of protesters besieged the Emir's palace demanding that the culprit be
released to them for stoning. Calm was however restored as the Emir and key religious leaders assured the
citizens that justice will be delivered in the matter in accordance with the Islamic law. The Emir's intervention
also helped to assuage the feelings of members of Gidan Masu, a predominantly Christian community in
Rogo LGA of Kano State, where violent inter-religious conflicts led to the burning of a church and the house
of the village pastor. The Emir visited the community and encouraged the state government to rebuild the
damaged property.
The activities of criminal networks are undermining security in parts of the Middle Belt and the Niger Delta.
Renewed killings in attacks by unknown gunmen under the cover of darkness are undermining recent efforts
to maintain peace and security in Plateau State. Multiple attacks on villages in Barkin Ladi, Bokkos and
Riyom LGAs by unknown gunmen left about 60 people dead and several houses burnt this month. No fewer
than 50 persons were reportedly killed as gunmen dressed in military uniform swooped on Wadata, Kadarko
and Kurmi villages in Wase LGA. The suspected military men were alleged to have attacked the
communities in retaliation for the death of six soldiers reportedly killed by deceased by suspected cattle
rustlers based in the communities. The STF admitted that its soldiers confronted and killed local militants but
community sources claim over 38 unarmed villagers were killed. The incident has undermined civil military
relations as the affected communities seek justice. There are fears that the communities might adopt extrajudiciary measures to get justice if conventional criminal justice system fails.
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In Kaduna state, a suspected armed robbery gang attacked Goron Dutse village and killed about 20 persons.
The robbers reportedly conducted the deadly revenge attack after they lost some of their gang members in an
earlier operation in the community.
There were clashes between rival cult groups in Eleme LGA of Rivers State, Isoko South LGAS of Delta state
and Yenagoa LGA of Bayelsa state as the groups which run protection rackets battled for supremacy in their
localities for supremacy in the relevant communities. Communities and waterways in the Delta remained
unsafe as robbers and sea pirates attacked travellers and community members at will. The resurgence of
criminal activities is partly linked to weapons proliferation following alleged failure of politicians to disarm their
thugs after the election.
Economic
The fuel crisis worsened for most of May forcing major players in the Nigerian economy to rationalise
operations. The country witnessed severe shortages and racketeering of petroleum products in the week
leading to the inauguration of the president and governors. The cause of the shortages remained claims by oil
importers that government had defaulted on contractual obligations around payment of subsidy. The outgoing
government refused to yield to the threat of marketers to stop distribution unless debts are paid on the
grounds that payments demanded by marketers had not been verified. From all indications, the oil marketers
stage-managed the shortages to secure payments before the inauguration of the new administration which
was expected to abolish the petroleum subsidy.
The scarcity caused hardship on Nigerians affecting air, land and water transportation and businesses that
depend on electricity. The situation was aggravated by vandalization of oil and gas pipelines that affected
supply of gas to power generating plants across the country.
Residents of Maiduguri and other towns in the North East have been affected by pressure on social amenities
due to the massive influx of IDPs. Officials' estimate indicates that 70 per cent of the population of Borno state
have relocated to Maiduguri, the state capital even as troops transfer freed women and girls held captive by
JAS. Relief assistance provided by government, civil society and development partners are insufficient to
meet the Food, health care and sanitary needs of the displaced persons.
The economies of Borno and Yobe states have been negatively impacted by the restriction of movements,
perennial curfew imposed by state governments and the climate of fear among residents. The situation in
Yobe has been particularly challenging as insurgents have targeted the state capital Damaturu and Potiskum
where most of the commercial activities in the state takes place.
Non-payment of salaries contributed to hardship on civil servants, their dependants and commercial ventures
that depend on patronage of public sector workers. Labour unions initiated strikes to press demand for pay.
For instance, civil servants in Plateau State embarked on an indefinite strike action to protest the nonpayment of salaries and entitlements. The strike action has adversely affected human security conditions in
the state. Sanitation services and public water supply have been suspended leading to fears of outbreak of
epidemic due to poor sanitation.
Falling price and demand for oil in the international oil market affected oil production, which is the main source
of government revenues and employment opportunities in the formal sector in the Niger Delta. This is evident
in the decision of international and local oil production and servicing companies to retrench their employees
and effect pay cuts in order to adjust to falling production levels. Workers in the public sector have also been
affected by non-payment of salaries. Public sector workers in Rivers and Delta are among those that
embarked on strikes to demand payment of salaries. The economic downturns in the Delta have implications
for security as evidenced by rising incidence in popular agitations and crime.
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National Context
Update on Regional Response to JAS
President Idris Derby of Chad expressed concern over lack of cooperation from Nigerian forces in regional
efforts to combat JAS. The Chadian leader stated that plans to form a rapid response force for the African
Union from troops of the four countries around the Lake Chad basin (Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon) had
been hampered by Nigeria's uncooperative stance. Chad has repeatedly complained about the lack of
cooperation between the Nigerian and Chadian forces. There are indications that the JAS has benefitted from
the failure of successive attempts to make the Multinational Task force effective. The concerns of the Chadian
president has stemmed partly from the decision of JAS to launch attacks across the Nigerian border into Chad
and Niger. Chad is also playing host to hundreds of Nigerians that have fled the fighting in Borno and Yobe.
Hope rises for effective combatting of JAS
There were renewed hopes of the Nigerian government tackling the JAS insurgency following the
inauguration of a new government. President Muhammadu Buhari, a retired general, restated his resolve to
end the insurgency in his inaugural speech. He questioned the Islamic credentials of JAS and made a
commitment to change the rules of engagement to ensure that the counter-insurgency operations are
conducted within the norms of international law. Significantly also, Buhari announced the relocation of the
command centre to Maiduguri. The prospect of top military officers operating close to the battleground is
expected to boost the morale of soldiers and help address the logistical challenges that have undermined
counter-insurgency operations. The international goodwill extended to the new administration is also
expected to renew international cooperation which floundered in the terminal months of the Jonathan
administration. However, JAS which had secured membership of the ISIL and renamed itself as the Islamic
State in West Africa (ISWA) seems poised to defy Buhari. The insurgent group instigated several suicide
bombing incidents and gun attacks following the president's inaugural speech.
Implications for Programming in NSRP States
Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast
Operations by the Nigerian military in areas such as Gwoza and the Sambisa Forest revealed a humanitarian
catastrophe for women, girls and children abducted by JAS. The military intervention that is isolating those
who are rescued from the public, including humanitarian actors and the international community, adds
additional complexity to their recovery and reintegration as independent verification of the information is still
missing. Also, the humanitarian situation in IDP camps worsened with reported abandonment of IDP camps
by the government after the elections. This presents a challenge for emergency recovery programmes as the
number of IDPs increases with the decision of the government of Niger Republic to send back Nigerian
refugees. Similarly, JAS' capture of new communities in Yobe State has led to population displacement
forcing the state government to establish two new IDP camps. This development has implications for
humanitarian programmes providing support or planning support to those directly and indirectly affected by
the violence. The JAS attacks on Yobe communities will likely affect planned programming as the situation
has become more complex.
For all programmes working on activities in the North East, it is essential to update all relevant conflict analysis
to assure that there is up-to-date understanding for all programming, but especially humanitarian assistance
in the Northeast. For organizations considering programming in the Northeast, it is important to consider a
strong component of civil-military collaboration in humanitarian assistance programming, as Borno highlights
the involvement of the military in the recovery of persons. It is also important to provide communities with
psycho-social assistance and to ensure that assistance is provided in a sustainable manner. This is important
because of potential government withdrawal from providing support to those directly affected by violence.
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Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano
Kano has experienced the continued improvement in the security situation in the months of April and May
2015 with no report of attacks by insurgents. The improved security situation indicates that the environment
for electoral campaigning is peaceful. This may indicate that programmes already working on electoral cycle
activities (pre, during and/or post) have had significant positive influence on the electoral cycle. However,
latent conflict tensions arising from local and state politics need to be observed and monitored over the next
few months. For programming supporting improvement in governance such as capacity building for
government officials in the state houses of assembly, it is important to consider conducting an updated
stakeholder analysis of the current latent conflict tensions within government. Specifically, the conflict
between Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, the education minister needs to be
monitored given its potential to affect conflict dynamics in the state. The mediatory role of the Emir of Kano
needs to be observed as it would likely shed light on the agency of the Emir in conflict resolution.
Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt
Incidence of inter and intra communal violence persisted in Plateau and Kaduna States. There were also
allegations of excessive use of force by the military in Wase Plateau State, which culminated in the death of
community members and has generated tensions between the affected communities and the Security Task
Force. Plateau has been affected by strikes of public sector workers who are being owed their salaries.
Programmes working on governance continue to face challenges due to the continued inter and intra
communal conflicts in the Middle Belt as well as the non-payment of civil servants. Additional dialogue could
be designed between civil servants, state government and Federal government to discuss options for ending
the strike and recover social services to minimize the negative impact being imposed on the public at the
moment. It is also recommended that programmes promoting reconciliation and peacebuilding should
continue to update their stakeholder mapping as the change in government in Kaduna and Plateau will affect
programme implementation.
Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta
The activities of the armed cult and gangs across the states of Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa continue to pose
major security challenge in the states. The involvement of the cults and gangs in the elections has had a
negative impact on peace and security in the region following reports that some weapons procured for
elections have been diverted to other criminal activities such as kidnapping and piracy. Lingering political
disputes such as that which arose from the conduct of local council elections in Rivers State has significant
implications for programming focused on governance, peacebuilding and the oil-sector.
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