Turkish Surprises 28 April 2015

Turkse verrassingen
Rob Rühl
Directeur Next Markets Advisory
Zwolle, 28 april 2015
Belangrijkste punten

Turkse economie ligt nog steeds op koers. Structureel gunstige factoren
brengen Turkse economie op 4e plek van Europa in 2040 (nu 6e)

Toch behoort Turkije voorlopig tot de zogenaamde “fragile” 5, op korte
termijn beïnvloedt een aantal risico’s de verwachtingen

Vooruitzichten voor Turkije als afzetmarkt blijven gunstig

Kansen voor locale productie zijn en blijven groot

Rol van Turkije als springplank naar het Midden-Oosten blijft belangrijk

Buitenlands ondernemers moeten bij hun plannen m.b.t. Turkije rekening
houden met verrassingen
2
Kapitaal, arbeid en productiviteit dragers Turks
succes
3 dragers economische groei per land
In % van BBP, periode 2003-2012 en 2013-2022
Total Factor Productivity growth
Capital stock growth
Employment growth
source: Oxford Economics
3
Achilleshiel Turkse economie
Lopende rekeningtekort
Inflatie
11.0
10.0
9.0
-75
-48
-65
-46
-34
4.5
8.0
-89
-65
-80
-64
-52
6.9
7.0
Exports
143
163
163
171
181
24.0
6.0
Imports
-233
-229
-244
-235
-233
30.9
5.0
20
23
23
26
27
3.6
Current Transfers
2
1
1
1
1
0.1
• Snelle groei economie lokt import uit van
investerings- en consumptiegoederen
• Olie-import belast handelsbalans
• Financiering van het lopende rekeningtekort
is pijnpunt
12-Mon th
24-Mon th
Ann ual Inflation
201 6
1.3
201 5
3.4
-10
Feb-15
26
-9
Nov-14
24
-9
Aug-14
23
-7
Feb-14
21
-8
5.00
4.0
May-14
Tourism
6.42
Nov-13
20
Income (Net)
6.69
Aug-13
Services
7.24
Feb-13
Trade Balance
Feb-11
C/A Balance
May-13
%
Nov-12
US$ bn US$ bn US$ bn US$ bn US$ bn
Aug-12
Ratio to GDP
Feb-12
2015F
May-12
2014
Nov-11
2013
Aug-11
2012
May-11
2011
Target
• Depreciatie Turkse lire tikt snel door in hogere inflatie
door omvangrijke import
• Verhoging overheidstarieven
• Haperend aanbod op de voedselmarkten
Source: ING
4
Economie groeit sneller dan van meeste EU landen
Groei nominale BBP in Euro
Turkse economie van nu 6e
€ 1.200
van Europa naar 4e in 2040
miljard
€ 1.000
2015
9%
€ 800
2040
€ 600
1 Germany
2 United Kingdom
3 France
4 Italy
5 Spain
6 Turkey
7 Netherlands
8 Switzerland
9 Sweden
10 Poland
1 United Kingdom
2 Germany
3 France
4 Turkey
5 Italy
6 Spain
7 Poland
8 Netherlands
9 Switzerland
10 Norway
6,1%
€ 400
€ 200
€2000
2015
Netherlands
Poland
2020
Turkey
Source: Oxford Economics, ING
5
..aantrekkelijke groeisectoren
14%
Gem groei 2015-2018 p.j in volume.
Metaal productie
*
12%
Voedsel
10%
Farmaceutische
Ind.
8%
Electrische, optische
high tech app.
Civiele bouw
Woningbouw
Cement
Machinebouw
Automotive
Chemie
6%
Papier en druk
Rubber & plastic
4%
Info en communicatie Financiële
diensten
Basis metaal
Onroerend goed ontw
2%
Gezondheidszorg
*Omvang bolletje geeft belang aan in % BBP
Onderwijs
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Gem goei 2008-2015 p.j involume.
source: Oxford Economics
6
Welke NL producten vinden aftrek in Turkije?
Belangrijkste importproducten uit NL in USD million in 2015
Office Machines, ADP machines
Plastics in Primary Form
Metalliferous Ore, Scrap
Organic Chemicals
Telecomm. Sound Equip etc.
Road Vehicles
Medicinal, Pharma Products
Iron and Steel
General Industrial Machinery NES
Elec machinery apparatus, Parts, NES
Power Generating Machines
Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods NES
Scientific Equipment NES
Special industrial Machinery
Chemical Materials NES
Textile Yarn, Fabric, etc.
Crude Animal,Veg Material
Coffee,Tea,Cocoa,Spices
Beverages
Dyes,Colouring Materials
670
514
498
400
388
291
290
272
257
250
243
234
226
208
152
120
113
109
109
99
Snelst groeiende importproducten uit NL in USD million in 2015-18
Road Vehicles
Prefab buildings, fitting etc
Power Generating Machines
Special industrial Machinery
General Industrial Machinery NES
Metal Working Machinery
Non-Metal.Mineral Manufactures
Misc. Edible Product etc.
Other Transport Equipment
Medicinal, Pharma Products
Elec machinery apparatus, Parts, NES
Essential Oils, Perfume etc.
Rubber Manufactures, NES
Plastics in Primary Form
Plastics, Non-Primary Form
Photographic Apparatus NES, Clocks
Inorganic Chemicals
Fertilizer Except Group 272
Organic Chemicals
Scientific Equipment NES
15,4%
13,5%
12,6%
12,5%
11,8%
11,7%
11,3%
11,1%
11,0%
10,6%
10,6%
10,4%
10,4%
10,4%
10,4%
9,7%
9,5%
9,5%
9,5%
9,3%
7
Turkije blijft een springplank naar het MiddenOosten en Noord-Afrika…
Share in Turkish exports (%)
Source: Unctad, Oxford Economics
8
Turkse concurrentiepositie gelijk aan Poolse
Volgens WEF Global Competitiveness Report
Turkije scoort beter bij innovatie dan Polen
+
Positieve factoren, Luchtvaartverbindingen en
kwalititeit van de wegen
+
Marktwerking, Sterke concurrentie, effectief anti
monopolie beleid
+
Innovatie, Overheid let bij uitbesteding op
innovatieve productie, aantal patentaanvragen
-
Educatie, Kwaliteit wiskunde-onderwijs en kwaliteit
schoolleiding scoort matig
-
Arbeidsmarkt, hoge afvloeiingskosten, moeilijk om
buitenlandse talenten aan te trekken, lage
pariticipatiegraad van vrouwen
Bron: WEF
9
Langdurige afwaardering lira leverde beperkt
concurrentievoordeel op
Q4 2013
Q1 2015
Q4 2016
Source: Oxford Economics, forecast ING
10
Inhaalbeweging lonen belast concurrentiepositie
Relatieve loonkostenontwikkeling (2008=100)
120,0
110,0
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Germany
2012
2013
Netherlands
2014
Poland
2015
2016
2017
2018
Turkey
Source: Oxford Economics
11
Hogere lonen leiden tot meer inkomen gezinnen
Source: Oxford Economics
12
In koopkrachtpariteit is Turkije ons al voorbij
Gem. beschikbaar inkomen per gezin in US$
Gem. beschikbaar inkomen per gezin in US$
koopkrachtpariteit
70,0
90,0
60,0
80,0
70,0
50,0
60,0
40,0
50,0
30,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
20,0
10,0
10,0
0,0
0,0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Netherlands
Poland
Turkey
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Netherlands
Poland
Turkey
Source: Oxford Economics
13
..en stimuleert besteding aan niet-basis behoeften..
11%
14,4%
13%
11%
11%
13%
12,6%
12%
13,2%
12%
12%
13,1%
12%
11%
11%
Source: Oxford Economics
14
.. sterk regionaal geconcentreerde koopkracht.
GDP by region in % of total GDP
GDP per capita in Euro
Consumption in Euro bn
annual growth 2015-2018
13
13
14
9
16
16
19
18
22
27
23
36
106
Source: Oxford Economics
15
Aantrekkingskracht van regio’s
2008
Amsterdam
up to $ 10,000
$10,000–35,000 (resident based, current prices)
$35,000–100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Over $100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Ankara
up to $ 10,000
$10,000–35,000 (resident based, current prices)
$35,000–100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Over $100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Bursa
up to $ 10,000
$10,000–35,000 (resident based, current prices)
$35,000–100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Over $100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Istanbul
up to $ 10,000
$10,000–35,000 (resident based, current prices)
$35,000–100,000 (resident based, current prices)
Over $100,000 (resident based, current prices)
2015
2018
Toename
2015-2018
Procentuele aandelen
2008
2015
2018
2,0
194,1
421,5
70,3
687,9
2,9
251,1
427,0
48,1
729,1
2,6
238,6
445,0
56,9
743,1
-0,4
-12,5
18,0
8,9
14,0
0,3%
28,2%
61,3%
10,2%
0,4%
34,4%
58,6%
6,6%
0,3%
32,1%
59,9%
7,7%
111,5
731,1
440,2
50,3
1333,1
71,4
767,3
577,2
66,3
1482,3
25,5
607,2
782,7
134,3
1549,7
-46,0
-160,1
205,6
68,0
67,5
8,4%
54,8%
33,0%
3,8%
4,8%
51,8%
38,9%
4,5%
1,6%
39,2%
50,5%
8,7%
31,8
246,5
161,5
18,8
458,6
21,6
263,3
208,1
23,6
516,6
7,5
206,9
282,6
48,4
545,4
-14,1
-56,5
74,5
24,8
28,7
6,9%
53,7%
35,2%
4,1%
4,2%
51,0%
40,3%
4,6%
1,4%
37,9%
51,8%
8,9%
200,8
1811,6
1355,3
179,5
3547,2
117,8
1790,8
1741,8
247,8
3898,3
36,2
1296,0
2232,5
492,2
4056,8
-81,7
-494,8
490,7
244,3
158,5
5,7%
51,1%
38,2%
5,1%
3,0%
45,9%
44,7%
6,4%
0,9%
31,9%
55,0%
12,1%
Source: Oxford Economics
16
Vergrijzing op termijn ook in Turkse steden
17
Zaken doen is in 2015 iets moeilijker geworden in
Turkije volgens Wereld Bank (nu #55 in 2014 #51)
01
10
20
30
40
50
Ease of doing business ranking
out of 185 countries
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Source: World Bank Ease of doing business
18
We maken de balans op van Turkije als markt en
als productielocatie
Afzetmarkt
Productielocatie
1.
1 inkomensverbeteringen
1 upgrading productiepakket zet door
2.
2 koopkrachtverbetering
2 jong, goed opgeleid personeel
3.
3 sterke concentratie koopkracht
3 concurrerend
4.
4 verschuiving in uitgavenpatroon
5.
5. concurrentie van Aziatische partijen
neem toe
4 buitenlandse investeringen zorgen
voor snelle modernisering
5 draaischijfrol Turkije voor MiddenOosten krijgt steeds meer vorm
Ondernemingen moeten rekening blijven houden met verrassingen in Turkije
19
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