docPower Market Drivers
download 
Report Transcription
Power Market Drivers
Global Power Market Trends N.C.Mohn Agenda Introduction to Alstom Power Market Drivers Global Project Logistics Introduction Alstom Group: Three sectors Grid 3.5 €bn (2009) 19 % Transport 5.8 €bn 30 % Power 13.9 €bn 51 % Sales by Sector (proforma figures) Source: Alstom 2009/10 Rail transport infrastructure Power generation infrastructure Power transmission infrastructure Agenda Introduction to Alstom Power Market Drivers Global Project Logistics The Sign Posts to Read to Understand Electricity Markets Environment Economic Growth Fleet age 93 GW p.a GDP in Trillion 2000$ PPP* ~3.5% 90 GW p.a 99 GW p.a 62 GW p.a 36 GW p.a ~3.1% 24 GW p.a Electricity consumption 14 GW p.a 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Deregulation 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fuel & electricity prices Environment becoming driver #1 for new plants and installed base 2025 Environmental Drivers CO2 Nuclear & biomass Emissions CO2 (Gt/y) Wind,solar, & Geothermal Technology Mix Efficiency CCS Hydro, Wave, & Tidal Efficiency: New Plant & Retrofit 2007 Ref 2030 1000 ppm +6oC Stabilize Needed emissions path 550 ppm 450ppm +30C +20C max CO2 capture and Storage A portfolio of Clean Energy Solutions Needed to Meet Global CO2 Goals World economic growth drives electricity demand growth Electricity Consumption Growth % 6% Economic Growth % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -2% Source: ALSTOM Global GDP Growth in PPP 2005 2010f 2009e 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 -1% 1992 0% Economic Recovery Developing Countries leading Power Demand World Bank Forecast GDP Growth 10 S. Asia E. Asia & Pacific 8 % change yr on yr 6 MENA 4 US 2 EUROPE 0 '2008 -2 -4 -6 2009e 2010f f2011f 2012f 50 years of Directions in Global Power Markets R.E.R Wave •GW p.a •Global boom •China •Asia •300 •250 •South & Central America •200 •150 •100 •US boom •North America Oil •Post WW II economic development Replacement •China boom •Middle East & Africa •Europe •All •boom •Global Recession •Liberalization & emerging Asia crisis Emerging •Source: ALSTOM •50 •0 •61 •64 •67 •70 •73 •76 •79 •82 •85 •88 •91 •94 •97 •00 •Steam Plant •300 •200 •Hydro Wave •150 •09e •Gas boom •Nuclear Nuclear •06 •Coal boom •GT Plant First •250 •03 •Wind •100 •Source: ALSTOM •50 •0 •61 Renewable •64 •67 •70 •73 •76 •79 •82 •85 •88 •91 •94 •97 •00 •03 •06 •09e Drivers leading to the “triple” investment wave - R.E.R – are still valid ahead: Replacement in old countries + Investment in fast growing Emerging countries + Renewable Global power market forecast – medium term New power plant orders in GW p.a. Av 220 / 240 GW p.a. NAM Europe China Russia & Cis Wind Hydro Nuclear LAM India Asia MEA Steam Gas Source: ALSTOM Uncertain pace of recovery after global crisis, but in next decade Asia will lead Fossil remains a workhorse Strong Growth in Renewables Solid Nuclear Market Agenda Introduction to Alstom Power Market Drivers Global Project Logistics Manufacturing units Canada nnnnnn U.S. Mexico Brazil Gatineau Tracy Chattanooga, Richmond Morelia Taubate India nnnnnn China Indonesia Baroda Durgapur, Shahabad Beijing, Sizhou, Wuhan Tianjin Surabaya THERMAL HYDRO WIND France nnnnnn Germany ---Italy Spain Portugal Belfort, Grenoble Berlin, Bexbach, Mannheim, Neumark, Sesto Bunel, Rio del Pozo/Somozas Setubal Switzerland U.K. Croatia Hungary Poland Romania Birr Rugby, Stafford Karlovac Budapest Elblag, Wroclaw Bucharest Examples of our power projects •Aghada •435 MW KA26 EPC •Comanche •820 MW Boiler, Steam Plant •Los•Humeros •25 MW Geothermal •Astoria •HRSGs •Le•Vieux•Moulin •24 MW Wind •Shoaiba •14x400 MW Oil Fired Steam Plants •Ling•Ao •2x1080 MW Nuclear ST •Combigolfe •435 MW KA26 Combined Cycle •Utran •370 MW KA26 Combined Cycle •Foz do Chapeco •4x217 MW Hydro Plant Project Photos Astoria HRSGs Project Photos Astoria HRSGs Most recent manufacturing investments Camaçari (Bahia Region) Tianjin hydro factory phase 1 up and running Wuhan Boiler factory opened in November 2009 Wind: Brazil and US entry on going in Salvador de Bahia and Amarillo Texas Chattanooga turbines factory (USA): inauguration June 2010 IMMA hydro factory Inauguration March 2010 Localisation of production in key markets for the future The Chattanooga Project Building the new factory on an existing site Downtown Chattanooga Existing Boilers Operations 32 31 Barge dock New Turbines Operations 30 29 Alstom’s Chattanooga investment Rebirth of a Major US Manufacturing Facility Reactor parts heading to San Onofre, CA Balancing tunnel steel liner coming from Indonesia A glorious history: 99 nuclear vessels & 59 steam generators shipped A new history in the writing Amarillo Texas Nacelle Assembly for N. American markets Power Sector One quarter of the world’s power fleet relies on Alstom technology - Largest integrated plant base - First carbon capture and storage on coal power - Global leader in air quality control systems - 40% of the worlds' nuclear plants use Alstom equipment - Most comprehensive range of renewable technologies - World’s largest operating turbine generator set - World leader in hydropower - World's most powerful on shore wind turbine A global leader in power generation - 100 years of experience in power - Largest local field service organization in the world
