Management of the Neman River basin with account of

Vladimir Korneev (Belarus)
Egidijus Rimkus (Lithuania)
Edvinas Stonevičius (Lithuania)
Audrius Šepikas (Lithuania)
Nickolai Denisov (Switzerland)
Aliaksandr Volchak (Belarus)
Aliaksandr Pakhomau (Belarus)
Lubov Hertman (Belarus)
Ivan Bulak (Belarus)
Alena Bahadziazh (Belarus)
Vladimir Anoufriev (Belarus)
Ina Rusaya (Belarus)
Givanni Crema (Italy)
Paul Buijs (Netherlands)
Management of the Neman River
basin with account of adaptation
to climate change
The main results
The programme of pilot projects on
adaptation
to
climate
change
in
transboundary basins under the UNECE
Convention on the Protection and Use of
Transboundary
Watercourses
and
International Lakes (Water Convention) has
started in 2010
The pilot projects mainly focus on developing
adaptation strategies which lay the ground for
further action.
Main aim of the project is to improve integrated river basin
management and transboundary cooperation in times of a
changing climate in the Neman river basin. The project aims to
strengthen the capacity to adapt to climate change of the
countries sharing the Neman river through supporting dialogue
and cooperation on the needed steps to design an adaptation
strategy in the transboundary context. It will aim to reach a
common understanding on future water availability and water
use taking into account possible climate change impacts.
“One of the priority areas in the field of environment during the
Lithuanian Presidency will be climate change issues. They are
relevant to the whole of Europe, including our country as well”,
Minister of Environment of Lithuania Valentinas Mazuronis
http://www.am.lt/VI/en/VI/article.php3?article_id=405
Analysis of changes of meteorological and
hydrological characteristics for the period
from 1961 to 2010
Meteorological and
hydrological data collection
Meteorological and hydrological information which was used:
(daily, monthly, seasonal, annual values)
Analysis period: 1961-2010
Temperature/precipitation:
Data from 23 stations (8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in Lithuania)
Water discharge:
Data from 25 stations (12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in
Lithuania)
Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling: wind
speed, humidity, sunshine duration
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Detected changes of meteorological and
hydrological characteristics
Seasonal air temperature (0С) in 1961 - 2010
Monthly air temperature changes (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Assessment of the change of temperature (0C) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (19611985): on average +0.9 0 C
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
r
r
be
ec
em
D
ov
em
be
r
N
ct
ob
e
O
te
m
be
r
st
Se
p
A
ug
u
y
Ju
l
Ju
ne
ay
M
il
pr
A
ch
ar
M
ar
ru
Fe
b
nu
a
ry
y
-0.5
Ja
Months (difference, 0C)
2.5
Change of annual air temperature (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Change of seasonal air temperature (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Air temperature in Vilnius 1778-2012
0,015
°C/year
0,010
0,005
0,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
-0,005
Annual dynamic
Monthly trends
Moving difference:
the last 25 years period minus
previous 25 years period
Seasonal precipitation amount (0С) in 1961 - 2010
Monthly precipitation changes (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (19611985): on average +10.9%
50.0
38.5
31.6
30.0
18.1
20.0
11.7
9.4
10.0
8.4
3.2
1.6
5.6
4.7
0.0
-10.0
-9.3
be
r
r
D
ec
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be
ov
em
N
O
ct
ob
er
te
m
be
r
t
Se
p
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us
A
ly
Ju
Ju
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M
il
pr
A
ch
M
ar
y
Fe
br
u
ar
y
ar
nu
ay
-14.0
-20.0
Ja
Months (difference, %)
40.0
Change of annual precipitation sum (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Change of seasonal precipitation sum (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Monthly runoff change (%) (1985-2009 minus 1961-1984)
Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1985-2009) - (19611984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%;
minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4%
50
42.0
44.2
30
20
6.7
10
5.9
2.9
6.9
5.7
0.9
0.4
0
-1.5
-5.2
-10
-20
-19.9
be
r
r
D
ec
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m
be
ov
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O
ct
ob
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r
N
Se
pt
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be
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ug
us
A
ly
Ju
ne
Ju
M
ay
pr
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A
M
ar
ch
y
Fe
br
ua
r
nu
ar
y
-30
Ja
Months (difference, %)
40
Hydrograph shape at the Dubysa (a) and the Nemunas (b) rivers during two parts of the
study period 1960-1984 and 1985-2009
Seasonal runoff change (%) (1985-2009 minus 1961-1984)
Spring
flood
maximum
SummerAutumn
minimum
Winter
minimum
The main features of changes
 Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and
summer temperature (largest changes were observed in
January);
 Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation;
 Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the
minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in
large part of territory;
 Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter
flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area.
Near-term future (2021-2050) projections
Climate projections for the whole Nemunas basin was made
with using CCLM model outputs
The regional CCLM model runs are driven by
the initial and boundary conditions of the Global
Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Realizations
of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model were dynamically
downscaled to a smaller grid using the CCLM
model.
Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios
were used
A1B (relatively high-emission scenario)
B1 (low-emission scenario)
Near-term forecast 2020-2050 was made
Two different hydrological models were used
for the purpose to foreseen runoff changes:
Lithuanian side used WatBal model;
Belarusian side used hydrology-climatic
calculations model (HCCM) based on the
The regional CCLM model covers a large part of
joint solution of the equations of water and the European territory with a high spatial
heat-energy balances
resolution (20 km  20 km).
Climate projections in the
Neman River basin
The main features of foreseen changes
 Mean annual air temperature in the basin territory will increase by 1,7 °C
according to A1B scenario and 1,4 according to B1 climate scenario. For all months
of the year the air temperature rise is projected. The largest changes under both
climate scenarios will likely occur during the cold season of year.
 The annual precipitation amount will increase by 73 mm according to A1B
scenario and by 28 mm according to B1 scenario. The largest positive changes are
foreseen for winter and spring according to A1B scenario, while the most rapid
rise are predicted for autumn according to B1 (negative changes are possible in
some months).
 CCLM model outputs data foresee decrease in sunshine duration in the first half of
the 21st century (relatively the largest sunshine duration decrease will be
observed during the winter months).
 Due to cold season air temperature rise and changes in precipitation composition
snow cover parameters should decline in the future.
Air temperature projections
Assessment of the future change of temperature in the Niemen River Basin until 2035 (mean
value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +1.7 0C; B1 +1.36 0C
3.0
2.8
2.8
A1B scenario
2.8
B1 scenatio
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3 1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.3
D
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be
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ct
ob
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be
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A
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us
t
Ju
ly
Ju
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ay
M
A
pr
il
ar
ch
M
Fe
br
ua
ry
ar
y
0.0
Ja
nu
change, 0C
2.0
2.6
Precipitation amount
Assessment of the future change of precipitation in the Niemen River Basin until 2035
(mean value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +6.51%; B1 +2.42%
20.0
A1B scenario
B1 scenatio
15.0
14.0
12.1
change, %
9.5
9.1
10.0
6.7
`
6.7
6.4
5.1
3.6
2.9
4.4
2.2
1.9
7.2
6.9
6.8
5.0
5.0
9.3
2.6
2.5
0.0
-0.7
-5.0
-4.3
-4.8
D
ec
em
be
r
be
r
N
ov
em
ct
ob
er
O
r
Se
pt
em
be
A
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us
t
Ju
ly
ay
M
A
pr
il
M
ar
ch
ry
Fe
br
ua
ua
ry
Ja
n
Ju
ne
-8.0
-10.0
ANNUAL
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Winter
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Spring
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Summer
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Autumn
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Projections of runoff
changes in the Niemen
River basin
Modeling results show that forecasted runoff changes in the near term future are
very similar with observed during the last 50 years.
According modeling results:
 Mean annual runoff will increase insignificantly (decrease in Belarusian part and
increase in Lithuanian part of the basin is very likely).
 The projected maximum spring flood runoff will decrease in the majority of
Nemunas basin. The decrease of maximum monthly runoff is likely to be related
to warmer winters with more frequent thaws. The earlier start of spring flood is
also very likely. As the consequence inundation risk will generally decrease in the
major part of the basin.
 Minimum winter flow will increase. It can be related to the earlier start of spring,
increased winter precipitation and increased frequency of thaws.
 Predicted summer changes are insignificant in the large part of the basin.
Increase in northern part and slight decrease in the southern part of the basin is
modeled.
 Drought probability can increase in the second part of warm period of year.
Observed and predicted runoff changes made using WatBal hydrological model
1.00
0.90
Merkys
0.80
Observed
0.70
A1B
0.60
B1
0.50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Ags
Spt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
0.40
0.90
0.80
0.70
Observed
0.50
A1B
0.40
B1
0.30
0.20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Ags
Spt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Schara
0.60
Runoff forecast – Belarusian model (annual)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Runoff forecast – Lithuanian model (annual)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Runoff forecast – Belarusian model (winter)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Runoff forecast – Lithuanian model (winter)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Runoff forecast – Belarusian model (summer)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Runoff forecast – Lithuanian model (summer)
A1B - scenario
B1 - scenario
Assesment of the runoff change in the Niemen River Basin on the territory of Belarus tale into account
climate change (A1В scenario) and forecasted change in water use until 2035 y
50
39.8
40
34.5
change of natural runoff
37.7
change due to water use scenario
33.5
total change of runoff
30
20.0
20
18.4
22.0
20.3
15.5
11.9
17.3
14.9
15.9
10.7
10
6.1
4.6
`
0
-1.6
-0.6
-1.2
-1.7
-1.0
-2.1
-10
-2.7
-2.8
-1.3
-1.5
-2.1
-2.9
-5.2
-8.1
change, %
-13.1
-20
-30
-15.8 -14.5
-12.8 -15.0
-17.3
Assesment of the runoff change in the the Niemen River Basin on the territory of Belarus tale into
account climate change (В1 scenario) and forecasted change in water use until 2035 y
50
9.7
10
4.6
10.5
8.0
D
ec
em
be
r
N
ov
em
be
r
29.4
O
ct
ob
er
change of natural runoff
Se
pt
em
be
r
Ju
ne
M
ay
A
pr
il
20.3
20
38.9
A
ug
us
t
30
M
ar
ch
Ja
nu
ar
y
40
Fe
br
ua
ry
41.0
Ju
ly
-40
change due to water use scenario
total change of runoff
26.4
19.2
19.1
9.3
6.8
`
3.0
4.7
6.9
17.8
5.4
0
-1.6
-1.2
-1.7
-10
-0.6
-5.1
-5.7
-1.0
-2.1
-11.5
chdnge, %
-20
-30
-2.7
-2.8
-14.2 -14.3
-1.3
-1.5
-2.1
-2.9
-17.1
D
ec
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O
ct
ob
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te
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be
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M
A
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h
ar
c
M
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Fe
br
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Ja
nu
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-40
Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will
grow by 0.5-2.0% per year in case of optimistic
scenario of economic development which will also
have slight impact on runoff regime. However, it
was determined that the impact of climate change
will be more important on runoff in the Neman
River Basin on the territory of Belarus in comparison
with forecasted impact of water use changes.
Pilot implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for assessment
of water quality of surface waters in the entire Niemen River Basin taking into account
Lithuanian experience for selected list of water quality monitoring stations (WQMS)
and for selected list of water quality parameters including preparation a series of
basin-wide maps regarding classification of surface waters quality.
N
o
.
Criteria for ecological status classes of rivers
Quality element
Parameter
River type
High
Good
Moderate
Poor
Bad
1
NO3-N, mg/l
1-5
<1,30
1,30-2,30
2,31-4,50
4,51 10,00
>10,00
2
NH4-N, mg/l
1-5
<0,10
0,10-0,40
0,41-0,8
0,81-1,5
>1,5
3
NO2-N, mg/l
1-5
<0,01
0,01-0,02
0,0210,05
0,0510,08
>0,08
PO4-P, mg/l
1-5
<0,050
0,0500,090
0,0910,180
0,1810,400
>0,400
Pt, mg/l
1-5
<0,100
0,1000,140
0,1410,230
0,2310,470
>0,470
BOD7, mg/l
1-5
<2,30
2,30-3,30
3,31-5,00
5,01-7,00
>7,00
Organic
and
oxidizable
matter
Chemical
oxygen
demand
(bichromate),
mg/l
1-5
<30
30,1-40
40,1-60
60,1-80
>80
Oxygenati
on
O2, mg/l
1, 3, 4, 5
>8,50
8,50-7,50
7,49-6,00
5,99-3,00
<3,00
O2, mg/l
2
>7,50
7,50-6,50
6,49-5,00
4,99-2,00
<2,00
Nutrients
4
5
General
data
6
7
8
9
Examples of implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for
assessment of water quality of surface waters with main point sources of pollutions
on the territory of Belarus
Examples of implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for
assessment of water quality of surface waters with main point sources of pollutions
on the territory of Belarus
Analysis of the
monitoring systems in the
Neman River Basin and
elaboration of proposals
to optimize the systems
with account of climate
change
Summary of proposed intervention for the upgrade and expansion of the Neman RB Hydrometeorological monitoring and Early Warning system (Giovanni Crema and Inna Rusaya)
Development of the common information platform (Internet database),
containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate
change for the Neman River basin countries.
http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/
Development of the common information platform (Internet database),
containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate
change for the Neman River basin countries.
http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/
Thermal and water quality variations in river Neman (upstream of Grodno)
380
Maximum
average
monthly
temperature
of air
360
340
Maximum
temperature
of water
320
concentration, mg/l
300
Dissolved
Oxigen
280
260
Mineralization
240
220
year
200
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Correlations tair - tw ater
y = 0.0082x2 - 0.5523x + 16.753
0
26
25
24
11.5
2
R = 0.2261
11.0
10.5
23
22
10.0
21
20
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
0
Maximum temperature of water, C
27
26
25
24
23
22
7.0
21
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
12
20
Maximum average monthly temperature of air, 0C
13
19
R2 = 0.6143
14
18
15
17
2
y = -0.1653x + 6.9697x - 49.652
16
16
15
17
14
18
dissolved oxigen, mg/l
9.5
19
13
27
Correlations tw ater - dissolved oxigen
12.0
temperature, C
28
13
Approach proposed
1.To select Water Quality
Monitoring Stations (WQMS)
on water objects closely to
reference conditions (minimum
affected to anthropogenic
pressure).
2.Statistical calculation with
analyses of statistical
significance for determination
correlations between air and
water temperatures, between
selected water quality
parameters and water
temperature.
temperature, 0C
Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water
quality at the highest generalization level
Estimation and forecast of the
future climate change impact on
the water quality at the highest
generalization level
3. Theoretical calculation with use of
semi-empirical formulas
Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water
quality at the highest generalization level
Assessment of projected climate change impacts on dissolved oxigen concentration in summer in the
Neman River Basin (A1B - scenario, progected in 2021–2050 to compare with 1965-2010)
Neman - Grodno
(upstream)
Neman - Stolbcy
(upstream)
Vilia - Vileyka
(upstream)
Schara - Slonim
(upstream)
lake Naroch - Naroch
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
change, mg/l
-0.20
-0.25
-0.30
-0.35
-0.40
-0.45
-0.50
DO (based on observed data and statistical analysis), mg/l
DO mg/l, (Weiss)
-0.55
DO, mg/l, (Benson and Krause)
-0.60
DO, mg/l, (Garcia and Gordon)
-0.65
Average decrease of dissolved oxygen content in surface water in summer forecasted as
0.25 mg/l in Belarus due to climate change. It is comparable with forecast for Lithuania
(Paul Buijs)
Increase of mineralization estimated on 3-10%
Correlation with water temperature and other WQPs were not found take into account
climate change because other factors more significant
Possible increase of nutrient and hydrobiological characteristics deterioration because of
dissolved oxygen content decrease
Development of the preliminary recommendation for improvement of water
management in connection with climate change adaptation (draft proposals on
adaptation measures for particular sectors of economy) for Belarus
Water users most affected to climate
change due to their depends from
water supply from surface waters:
Industry (19);
hydroelectric power plants (11);
Recreation (17);
agriculture including fish industry
(16)
Signing of the Agreement between Belarus, Lithuania,
Russian Federation and European Union and
development of the Neman Water Resources
Management Plan for the entire river basin will be help
to solve most important challenges in adapting to
climate change in the transboundary context.
OUTCOMES OF THE PROJECT
 Climate change scenarios developed for the entire Neman River Basin;
 Assessment and forecast of water resources formation with account of
different climate change scenarios for the entire Neman River Basin
with use of Lithuanian and Belarusian models take into account
economic development tendencies (for Belarus);
 Agreed indicators of water bodies status, along with respective criteria
(values), and systems for classification of water bodies’ state and
parameters;
 Assessment of water quality with using agreed indicators and criteria;
 Proposals to optimize the monitoring systems with account of climate
change;
 Common information platform (Internet database), containing data on
water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the
Niemen River basin countries;
 Preliminary recommendation for improvement of water resources
management in connection with climate change adaptation for Belarus
LESSONS LEARNT
First international experience in modeling and forecasting
of climatic and hydrological characteristics for the entire
transboundary Neman River Basin;
Pilot implementation of the assessment of surface water
quality with using agreed indicators and criteria.
ACTIVITIES IN 2013
Presentation and discussion about main project results and about
recommendation for improvement of water management in
connection with climate change adaptation (two seminars: in Belarus
and in Lithuania during 1-6 month of 2013).
Development of common strategy of adaptation to climate change
for Neman River Basin.
Development of adaptation measures for particular sectors: energy,
land use and planning, agriculture, urban development.
Maintenance and improvement of the informational platform.
Analysis and development of recommendations for improvement of
the draft of the agreement between BY-RU-LT and EU.
Preparation of the Monograph on results of project including
recommendations for the improvement of the water management in
the Neman River Basin with account of adaptation to climate change
Thank you for attention