of the Neman River Basin

United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe
Developing a transboundary adaptation
strategy in the Neman basin in Europe
Vladimir Korneev
Central Research Institute for
Complex Use of Water Resources
(CRICUWR)
Republic of Belarus
Lithuania
Environmental
Protection
Agency
Transboundary adaptation strategy for the
Neman River Basin developed within Project
“Management of the Neman River Basin with
Account of Adaptation to Climate Change”.
This project was a part of the UNECE Program
of pilot projects on adaptation to climate
change in transboundary river basins.
It was implemented with assistance of the
Environment and Security International
Initiative (ENVSEC) and United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) in the Republic
of Belarus.
Most important results of the of the ECE/UNDP/ENVSEC
Neman pilot project (examples and good practices)
A. Evaluation of changes of meteorological parameters for the entire
Neman River Basin. The exchange of data and commonly agreed
climate scenarios between the countries took place and a common
data base was used;
B. Assessment and forecast of runoff for the entire Neman River Basin
with use of Lithuanian and Belarusian models - when developing
integrated climate and hydrological forecasting models for the Neman
River Basin, there has been a strong emphasis on data and modelling
harmonization;
C. Agreed indicators of water bodies status, assessment of water quality
with using agreed indicators and criteria;
D. Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the
water quality;
E. Proposals to optimize the monitoring systems with account of climate
change;
F. An Internet-based common information platform was developed and
installed, containing meteorological and hydrological data and
thematic maps with future climate and runoff scenarios
(http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/);
G. Vulnerability assessment of the expected impacts of climate change in
the Neman river basin and development of the adaptation measures
A
Air temperature and precipitation change forecasts (up to 2050)
using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (according to IPCC – 2013)
and A1B and B1 scenarios (according to IPCC – 2007)
Temperature
Scenarios
CMIP5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
CCLM
A1B
B1
Precipitation
B
Runoff projections
Multi-model maps with runoff forecast until 2050
Annual
Two different hydrological models were used
for the purpose to foreseen runoff changes:
Lithuanian side used WatBal model;
Belarusian side used hydrology-climatic
calculations model (HCCM) based on the
joint solution of the equations of water and
heat-energy balances
Winter
Summer
B
Modeling results show that forecasted runoff changes in the near
term future are very similar with observed during the last 50
years.
 Mean annual runoff will increase insignificantly (decrease in
Belarusian part and increase in Lithuanian part of the basin is very
likely).
 The projected maximum spring flood runoff will decrease in the
majority of Neman basin. The decrease of maximum monthly
runoff is likely to be related to warmer winters with more frequent
thaws. The earlier start of spring flood is also very likely. As the
consequence inundation risk will generally decrease in the major
part of the basin.
 Minimum winter flow will increase. It can be related to the earlier
start of spring, increased winter precipitation and increased
frequency of thaws.
 Predicted summer changes are insignificant in the large part of the
basin. Increase in northern part and slight decrease in the
southern part of the basin is modeled.
 Drought probability can increase in the second part of warm
period of year.
B
It was determined that the impact of climate change will
be more important for runoff in the Neman River Basin in
comparison with forecasted impact of water use changes
D
Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the
water quality at the highest generalization level
Assessment of projected climate change impacts on dissolved oxigen concentration in summer in the
Neman River Basin (A1B - scenario, progected in 2021–2050 to compare with 1965-2010)
Neman - Grodno
(upstream)
Neman - Stolbcy
(upstream)
Vilia - Vileyka
(upstream)
Schara - Slonim
(upstream)
lake Naroch - Naroch
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
change, mg/l
-0.20
-0.25
-0.30
-0.35
-0.40
-0.45
-0.50
DO (based on observed data and statistical analysis), mg/l
DO mg/l, (Weiss)
-0.55
DO, mg/l, (Benson and Krause)
-0.60
DO, mg/l, (Garcia and Gordon)
-0.65
Average decrease of dissolved oxygen content in surface water in summer forecasted as
0.25 mg/l in Belarus due to climate change. It is comparable with forecast for Lithuania
(Paul Buijs)
Increase of mineralization estimated on 3-10%
Correlation with water temperature and other WQPs were not found take into account
climate change because other factors more significant
Possible increase of nutrient and hydrobiological characteristics deterioration because of
dissolved oxygen content decrease
E
Analysis of the
monitoring systems in the
Neman River Basin and
elaboration of proposals
to optimize the systems
with account of climate
change
Summary of proposed intervention for the upgrade and expansion of the Neman RB Hydrometeorological monitoring and Early Warning system (Giovanni Crema and Inna Rusaya)
F
Development of the common information platform (Internet
database), containing data on water resources management and
adaptation to climate change for the Neman River basin countries.
http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/
G
Vulnerability assessment
of the expected impacts
of climate change in the
Neman river basin and
development of the
adaptation measures
Impact (probability)
low
medium (vulnerable)
high
+
+
Vulnerability
Impact consequences
not very significant
+
+
medium
-
significant
Adaptation potential
low
medium
high
+
low
medium
high
Multi-stakeholder
seminars in Belarus,
Lithuania and
Kaliningrad region
(Russia)
G
Vulnerability assessment of the expected impacts of climate change
Links to the National Policies and Strategies
The priority of climate change studies is stipulated in the
National Strategy of Sustainable Socio-Economic Development in
the Republic of Belarus until 2020. The climate change issues are
also dealt with in the Water Strategy of the Republic of Belarus
until 2020.
The National Strategy of Lithuania on Adaptation to Climate
Change until 2050 defines basic principles and adaptation goals,
including short-term (until 2020), medium-term (until 2030) and
long-term (until 2050) goals.
The main Federal-level ecological policy tools of the Russian
Federation in the field of climate change adaptation include Water
Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, Climate Doctrine of
the Russian Federation and Comprehensive Plan for Implementing
it until 2020. Principal provision of the Regional Climate Strategy of
Kaliningrad Oblast – strategy of adaptation to climate change –
have been formulated in 2014.
Overview of Measures within the Framework of
Strategies of Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman
River Basin (basin level)
Group of
measures
Direct
actions at
the basin
level
Total
estimate
d cost
Description of measures
Signing an international agreement on the Neman
River Basin
-
Setting up and functioning of an International
Commission for the Neman River Basin.
€
Development of the overall Neman River Basin
Management Plan
€
Evaluation of status of ground waters and their
vulnerability to climate change
€€
€- up to 100 ths €;
€€- up to 1 mln €;
€€€- from 1 to 10 mln €;
€€€€- over 10 mln €
Overview of Measures within the Framework of Strategies of
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin (basin level)
Group of
measures
Actions
to more
fully
consider
interests
of the
basin
Total
estimate
d cost
Description of measures
Improvement of the meteorological and hydrological
monitoring network (setting new automatic stations and
computerization of existing ones)
€€
Improvement of the Schemes of Complex Use of Water
Resources (SCUWR) of the Neman River Basin (Belarus,
Kaliningrad Oblast) and Water Resources Management Plan
(WRMP) (Lithuania)
€€
Development of water supply and sanitation systems and
improvement of economic mechanisms in this field
€€€€
Improvement of the hydro power plants (HPP) engineering,
construction and operation, information exchange and early
warning systems considering the estimated changes in
hydrological regime at the basin level.
€€€
Improvement of flood risk management and flood protection
works
€€€
€- up to 100 ths €;
€€- up to 1 mln €;
€€€- from 1 to 10 mln €;
€€€€- over 10 mln €
Overview of Measures within the Framework of Strategies of
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin
(national and regional level having importance on basin level)
Group of
measures
Actions at
the
national
and
regional
levels
Total
estimated
cost
Description of measures
Implementation of SCUWR and WRMP measures
€€€€
Development of generating capacities using renewable energy
sources (evaluation of potential for cost-effective utilization of
renewable energy sources and measures stimulating their
further propagation)
€€€
Improvement of project engineering and construction
technology for roads and transport infrastructure.
Improvement of the existing communication network
€€€€
Improvement of water use and farming technologies in the
context of the climate change
€€€
Improvement, development
recreational infrastructure
€€€
and
maintenance
of
the
Improvement of monitoring and assessment of water
resources quality
€- up to 100 ths €;
€€- up to 1 mln €;
€€€- from 1 to 10 mln €;
€€
€€€€- over 10 mln €
Estimated resources needed for implementation of identified adaptation
measures in the Neman River Basin (NRB) for 3 countries are
approximately 290 million USD, including financing from state and local
budgets, state and regional programs, funds of enterprises – cca 90%;
and international funds and projects – cca 10%.
It is reasonable to introduce adaptation strategies and measures to
implement them in the course of elaboration of forecasts, plans and
socio-economic development programs. This integration process is
intensified most during the development and implementation of pilot
climate change adaptation projects at the regional level and also during
improvement and preparation of the following documents:
 Schemes of Complex Use of Water Resources (SCUWR) of the NRB,
in the future – NRB Management Plan ( territory of the Republic of
Belarus);
 NRB Management Plan (Republic of Lithuania);
 Complex Schemes of Water Bodies Use and Protection of the NRB
and Baltic Sea River Basin (Russian part in Kaliningrad Oblast).
The above documents should be supplemented by a Management Plan,
being common for the Neman River Basin states, which is to be
developed and implemented.
The signing of an International Agreement
(Technical Protocol on Cooperation) on the
Neman River Basin and setting up of an
International Commission as well as Common
River Basin Management Plan for the entire NRB
would provide an important additional practical
mechanism for implementing the strategies and
stakeholders engagement.
Thank you for attention
The Neman river near Grodno (photo of Paul Buijs)