Radon Monitoring Programs in the South Iceland Seismic Zone1977

Transcription

Radon Monitoring Programs in the South Iceland Seismic Zone1977
RadonMonitoring Programsin the SouthIcelandSeismic
Zone1977-20O6
nill Einarsson,nnII Theod'rsson,Asb Rft Hjaflar&ifrir,
Gisli Jdnssonand G Ai6nI. Guij6nsson
ScienceIrstilule, Uni!ersily of lceland.Reykjavik, Iceland
E-nuil I [email protected]
; [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Studi"r of tudon concentration in $'ater fran seothernal v'ells have been
on.lucted $'hh interruption it1the South l.elanl SeisniL Zone since 1977 sp ed
b! r1rcng indkations thot ndon changes occ ft?d prior to eaflhquakes. Three
time seriet of radon chanc?s arc availeble: t ) An t 8 i'ean series of neaswements
usnryu labo r intensivenethod (Lucas eU) on.lircrcte sanples. B) A ?rcatD
inptt)ed method, usins a liq id scintiLLation(LS) detectoa used sinca 1999,
whare 200 nl wakr santples --ere sent ttric? a week to ow labontorr C) Frcn a
?\|lr designed sreenl, A|to-Radon, that nakes conniuous neasurcnents oJ' adon
in gcatlEnnol punzpinq stations. Tine serier AJot ha period 1977-1993 rcvealed
nh\ earthquaker. Lotedrudon anonalies. They werc represented by both positive
and nesatiw ?rcufioils Jron ttu nean wlues, and occvred nostb prior to the
'eisnlic events. Radon anomalies verc observe.l belore 30 ol the 9u si8,tificunt
?vnts satisj|hg selectio,t ctit ria. OJ all obsened anotutlies 35% werc rclated
ta seisnicit\,80q.ofwllich wercpositbe. Samplinefot time senesR begana tear
bclorc lte tse desnudive earth.ruakesoJ June 2000 (M,,6.5) occufte.l in the
mi.l. e ol ou sanvlitus iattrorlL larye \iariatiobs ir ndon wrc obse^'e.l thttl
werc etrelated owr the whole setsmicdllyactiw.one and were appaftntly
related to tlv seismic evetts. P.eae*mtu &anses I 5 htottlL' before he events
consisted oI a ilow decrcase oJ radon, i tettupted br positive spikzs. Co- teisnlic
stepsa(conpaned the [email protected] The rcdon values decrcase.l at all stations,
nost likely rclated to tlv co seis,nn change in grcund wuter prcssure obsen'e.l
o\'.r th? $,holearea. Post'seismicret m to bft-seisnic levels about 3 months
aLt?rthe earth(luakesi\ ptubabb also linked trith the prcssurc chahge itl the
Pk\&rLnlr r)f1tpttlttntuti.nlt Bninionaiht: S?sbn.t Aea.hohkulpruLrnr!
lor Edrth4uukts
) n.r' ,ierflrins
',' a,t, Auio"Radon. hr.r been d?.r.tapedfot .ontitlrousl\
uorlk)rint tulor in EtoutLltrutcr oi site. It is a si,rpte anrt tobu\t tiLtui.l
nirlill.tti,t.otuttit\
srttcn. Th? rafl ts ol6 h.ounln,! p(rio.t dr( \(at oh.?
.t\,,r 21h.urs h urS;,lS tttu'svg?toa|ertat co,t4rtt?t:Fours\stus areprcs.nttr
,i otJ.4tn11r,nhitl rhe s.isni( zone.
at 0O:
faullin
I, INTRODUCTION
Va.mus s(udicshrve suggestedthar a changein rhe concenrralionof radon in groundwareris an
carlhLluareprccurso( secc.g. revicws by Haukssonlj l and King I2l. and recenrstudiesby Roeloffs
l l l r D d T r i q L r ee r a l . l 4 l . E v e n r h o u g hn u n r e r o ues x l r n t t e so f p r e n r o n i t o rE
y don anomatieh
s ave
bccn r(lcn(i1iedand (lescribedin rhe lireraLrrcstrtjsricd analysjsofrhe retaLi(DstriD
bcrwee, rt]don
i r r J . , , 1 1 . , t , . . l, ,k. r, ,b c ( r J i f r i ( . u lbt e l r u ' eo l l h r l r c t o f t , , n g, i T e . e , i e . i . , . u r . " , r , ) 1 . , i \ .
arers. rs suitlble nnnriloring systemshavc not beennvailabte.Afrer t8 years cf tnoniloring rador,
in grouDdw rer ilr Icchnd, using r labourinrensivernerhod(Lucascell), agreltly improved;ethod.
uslngrllquidscinrillarion(LS)dcrccror.wasdevetopedarrheSciencctnsliruteintggg.where200
rnl $rter sanrples\\'.rc senr twice a week io ou. tabor{kry for radon measuremcntin:r simDlc
autorlrxric\rnrple chrng€r'.ln ordertoget I continuousr"do, record anit rcducewo.kine rime a new
' r . f l n . A . I n R . r u ^ r )q. J . .J ( r e l o p .d I n r c o n r i n u o J m
" e r " u r c m e nn( t r . d o n i n g e o r t r emr a t p u m p i n g
statiolrs.Irr Lhispapcr we docunrenrand give an oveNiew of rheseprojecrs,borh rhe measurinir
lech,)ryucand the apparcntrelationshit betwecn errrhq[akes and radoDcxcursiors.
2. THE SOT]THICET,AND SI'ISMIC ZONE AND THE EVENTS O!- 2OOO
Thc Soufi ]cchnd SejsmicZonc is a lransfornLlypeplalebourdrlf, a branchof the mid-Alhnlic ptate
boundaryrhar crosseslceland 15. 6j. The zone has bren defined by Jesrrucuonarers oi hrsrorrcar
e:llhquakes,llolocene su|facerupruresand insrrumenraltyderenninedeoicenfes.I( is orienredE-W
n n d i s l 0 l 5 k m w i d c .D e s l r u c t i o an r e a so f i n { : l i v r d u a t e J r r h q u JJkncJ\ s u r f J l ef J U i r r n ( F i g . t l q h o w .
howc\cr, rh|r crch cvcnr is associrredwith tulking on N-S srriking planes,perpendiculrr10dre marn
zonc lhe orer-xli leti lalerd rransR)flrnx)Lionatongttre (rre thus appears1c)be rccommoda(eoDy
rght-hteral ixulting on many parnltct,rrnsverse hulrs aDdcounterctockwiserorrrioJrof thr bbcts
bclrecn Ll'.m, bookshclflauhnrg" [71.
Itanhquakcsin Soulh Icelandtend b occur in rnaio. sequencesin which mosLot rhe z_one
rs
rllaclcd. Thescscquences
lasi fron a fbw drys to abour3 ycan. Erch sequenceiypicalty beginswith
l m.gnllude 7 evctrI in the eftrcm part of rhe zone, fotlowed by sma er events fa(he. west. The
sequenc.soccLrr,tl inreAals thal rrnge between45 ard j tZ years [71.and ir has be€n argted rhrr a
coDpleresrrdinrele,rse
ofrhe whole zoneis accomplishedin about 1.10yedis [8]. tn l9E5 rhelong trnrc
snre tbe lasl scquenceled ro a long-rerm forecasl[9], rcfined in t993 [10]. oi a mrjor eanhquake
scquencewjthrn the nexrdccldes.This forecasiwas tutfi ed in June2000 when 1wo magnirude6.5
cldrt\ r)cculcd ir the cenaal part of the zone.
The seqrcncebeganon June I7 at l5:40 wirh a magnjlude6.5 evenr in rhe easkrn Darrol rhe
^ n c ( l i i g 1 ) .T h i s i r n m e d i a r e lryr i g g e r exd f l u n . yo t r c r r \ r r y J t o n S t c J \ r r q 0 L r n - t , , n g s r r ; r c h , , f t h e
pldteboundrry Loihc wesr (e.9. | 1ll and tlll) lhe trrgesrcve.ls of wlrich occumedon N S faults.A
Fig. 1
TI
lo l0 k
3. RA
THE1
T
Obse
varyin
They a
Rtdo, Monitorine Ptugra$ in the SouthlcebnA Seisniczore ....
secondrnainshockof aboutthesamenagnirudeoccurredabout20 km wesrof thefirst oneon June21
at 00r5i. The senseof laulting was right-lateral strike slip conforming to rhe model of.,bookshelf
faulting" for the SouthlcelandSeismicZone.
64'N
20'w
Fig. I
The locationof aheradon sampliDgstationswithin the SouthIcelard S€bntc Zon€shom
with lriargles.Tbin Un6 showHolocencsurlsc€fEcturcg mapp€db€foE 2{XtO,
tbe two thick
linessbowthr sourcefaulb of th€ two e thquakssof Jue 17 dd 21, 2(n0, nxp€ctivety,s
delineatedby afiershocks.Tbe senseof faultiDswasright-laleratstrik€-slipon both fsults.
The main zonesolrupture wereabour15km long andfiacturedrhecrustfrom rhesurfacedown
to l0 km dep& [3, 14]. Large hydmlogicalchangeswere observedin a wide areasu{ounding the
seismicallyactivezone.Pressurechangesh boreholesfollowed a regularpattemconformingwith
crustal stresschanges[15]. Pressuredecreasedin areasro rhe NE and SW of the epicentersbut
increasedin the qua&antsto lhe NW andSE.Thesechangeswere large,but were reversedin a few
3. RADONSTUDIESIN SOUTHICELAND
THET977.1993
TIME SERIES
The first radonprojectin lcelandwasinitialedby Egill Hauksson,thenat Lamont DoherryEanh
Obseflatory,in cooperalionwirb Universiry of lceland.The radonmonitoring netwoik in the SISZ
consistedof up to 9 stations.Samplesof geothennalwaterwer€colected ftom ddl holeseveryfew
weeksandsenlto the laboralor) for rddonanalysisby scinlillationcounring.The resutting.imesenes
varyin lengthliom 3 lo 16years.Many eafthquake-relared
radonanomalieswereidentified[ 1, 16.17].
They are representedby both positive and negativeexcursionsfrom the mean values,and occur
mosdyprior to theseismicevents.A representative
sampleis shownin Fig. 2. For a statisricatanalysis
Pknrednus of IIE ktcmathnalRruinstomiu
ststianon Geochenial P/e.ulets Jor Edrthquakes
K a b e r h o l t l1 9 7 9
1200
r
1000
f; ooo
&
600
400
200
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Sampletime-series of radon at th€ strtion Kaldarholt for thc y€sr 1979. The only signincant
earthquake for thh yer ws a nrgnidrde 3 eyenr oD September5. lt ws pBeded by. cl4r
radon &onily denned hy 3 6ample.. The sMe evot w6 pE.ded by radon anomtlis in 6
timc seriasat 4 stations.
Fig.2
wereselected
of thennomirliesandcomparisonwith the se;smicitytime series,significanlearthquakes
accordingto the criterir
M=2.'1logD-0.43.mdM=2
o)
where M is the magnitude and D is the distanceto a radon monitoring station. Thus 98 independent
seismiceventswere selected.They were in the magn;tuderrnge 2 - 5.8. The main rcsults are as
L
Radonlnomalies were observedbefore 30 olthe significantevents.
2.
l5o/, ofnll obserled anomalieswere relatedro seismicity-
3.
80% of the anomrlies observed before eanhqurkes were positive.
4
lf a positiv€,rnomalyis detectedat one statior. the prob)bility of a significanl earthquake
i, 38q..
occurringatuerwards
5.
Somesamplingsircswere found lo be more sensitivethanothers.Thesensitivityappearsk)
dependon local geologicalconditions.
6.
A few .ddon .momalies appearedto be relaled to eruptive activity of the neiShbouring Hekla
Fig.3
Rado
Scienc€lnstitu
THE 1999 - TIME SERIES
A new radonprogramwasinilia(edin 1999usinga new inslrumenr.h is basedon arolelliquid
scintill ion technique,describedbelow 18, 19, 201.Samplingftom geothermalwells in the Soutb
Icer:rndSeisnricZone begana year beforethe denrucliveeanhquakesotJune 2000 occurred.Wrer
L
Pre's
days
Ralon MMitoihg
PtoBrMs it rhc South l.eiand Seisnic Zone ....
-:- -
:-_---_----_----tf
r \ri
;.tt
-
- ;-l
,//
ru.r
R.rdon dnn€{eri€s of lhe s.atioDsS€rod!, Laugaland and Itr€mniskeid for the y€ar 2000. The
stltion locatiolls arc given in Fi& 1. Ih€ premonitory radon low iB [email protected] in February-Mecb
premotrl.ory spikes in February-April, the co-seismic drop in Jone, and the post-seismic
Nvery in Sept€mber The bhck line is a fiv&point t:|ming lieEge. Verticd lins trdicate
the 'txcess magniude" of €arthquak€s {t thc r€spective ltadon, i.e. the true ma8nitude ir
€xc€ssof the th.€hold defined by fomuh O).
samplesw€re laken about twice a week fiom geothemal hol€s at seven sites (Fig. 1) and sent to the
ScienceInstilute for analysis. The June 2000 earthquakes originated in the middle of our sampling
Fis. 3
A representative radon tilne series is shown in Fig. 3. The radon variations folm a distinct
patlem thar €an be relaled to the earthquakes [2t]. The following features can be verified:
l.
h€-seisnic decrcaseof radon. Anomaloudv low values were rneasuredin dle Denod 101-16?
davs beforc dle earthouakes.
Ptrrrrdnu\.l!lr:.rt(ndonatLln*orni!St$n'nonGc
8
l.
i
L
tunnai Pft(\
o r tl i i E d r t h r t r d k ? \
prior to Lhcearthquakcs'
Pr.-seisnlicrncrcrse SPikcsxPleu in lhe tiNe serics'10 l'14 drys
This is nrost
Co seisnric step The t ldon vduc! decrcasert lhe iimc of the first earlhquakc
lhe whole
ove'
likelt rclrtc(l ro the co seismicchrnge in ground i'rtef prcssureobservcd
problbly
P(\l seisnic .ctunr lo Dtf'seisntic Ievels abotrt3 months rlier the c'Lrrhqurkes
rlso linked with lire pressutechrnge in th€ geothcrnr'rlsystems'
OF ICEL4NI)
RADON M\:ASURF,MEN'I'S AT SCIENCE INSTITUTE OF UNIVERSITY
Itrdo|risnreasutedllscicncelnstilulcNilhlwollexible.clonclyle]ated'varirlionso|(heliqt'd
operalcdin ouf labornlory
seinrillr( ion tc.hr iquc.( I ) witir rD ^uLl)matr.samplech'rngs lbf I 2 s'r'rples
a rsc c q u a r r v
a d o nc o n l i N r o t r s llvz 3 l B o l h s ' t " s L c m
L 2 2 lr. i d r 2 ) s y s r c m (sA u t o - R r d o nl)h r t m o n i r o r
u\cthcslnre
wrte'
Ihcv
on
iDwatcrrDdin rif.butwe halc conccntraled
i"it,,,,,","' -**'1"g,*r,,tr
amplllld'
"i."-nic unit (3x I0x20 cm'), whi'h hasxslabilizedhi-qhvollagennit rn
',,i;,.'p'"-r*tlr",l
which
is trsdl
PC
compurer:
with
a
, .,,ri,.],,","" Lp'r* r*rgr,t anrlvsef and run;t for cornfirrnicathg
lnd collcctirrgdrlr'
for slaiing the mcdsurenrcnls
n r o d eD s c d '
l h e s e n s i t i \ i t y. n d s t a b i l i t yo f t h e s y s t er ! i s b a s e ' lo n r h e s p e c i f i cc o u n t i n g
pulse
x
delayed
for
'''Po
unitlooks
rlphr pulses Aftc'each pulse.rhe electronic
dehllalcounrir! of
I
s
t
i
o
n
r
t
h
ebe'n
w
i
f
t
i
n
a
r
r
i
v
e
l
6
m
s
)
u , , ,i i i ^ , . l * e l * r . q o Z . t t h e a i p h a p u l s e s o f ' ' ' P o0 r x l i f e 0
pulseo||ts|no!hc|Duclidc'],.Pb'Thee|cctronic[nitcounlsthesedc|xyedPu|ses|n.rscpxrrt.
to about 3 pulscs pef hour
ctrnnel ]'lis s|].ciflc couttnrg lrodc reducesthe r:idon btckS'orrlrd
pulrs are $unted' rnd it
all
where
nrode
coLrtd.d Io i(I)o fulses pcr hour in noflntl counrioS
' rPo countralc of lhrce trmes
a
scintillxror'
L
0
ml
n.,io. tr," .y".u ii*t ""icmal di$rrrb.uccs Wnh
I nBq/L ttl waler and
li'i .',"'i,,"i i",,,,' ." "r ,he bncksround ( in 6 h perods) corrcspondsro about
i B q / n r r i nr i r .
measurirgradon in wllcr in the lxboratory' I00 or 200 n samplesre
I.4D!LB1!4/!yr!r!!! For
_{)
o l l ' r r r c ' r r l l r J r r n t n e Jl r o n r l h i w ' r e r l u l \ r r r lo l \ ' r l l t r r r J | r
\.urrr
s)stcnr for rboul 5 rinutcs us'ng an
inrnerrl oil brsctl. re usetblc) bv circulrting 'rir in a closed
liquid scitrtillalioncountins svstcn)hr'
O!,r!& !f,Sll!!! Auto Rudo! is a simple ,Ind robusi
"C) rrom a well is
walcr (75 100
gcorheflnxl
The
conrinurLrslynrorrirorirrgradon in sroundwLrter'
rrrnLrdrsrnererrthr bnrh regrll:tres
conducterlto Ltrerlerectrirrnrir via n l5 m long clPpet rubel2 mm
L
'
f
h
(
r h c l l o $( r b o u l1 0 m l / n r i n ) a n d c o o l s l h e w l t e r t ' r r t r u u t l l r \ r J L t r l h e n r u n s L h r o u g n J i r c ' n
Thc rad(r ni.||uscs
il"g ,lr":,"," u'1" -;1. *rrich is inside fie uppcrnros!part of the dctcotor^unil
Aconcenrur'orl
nrlvial).
in
a20
based,
miner
at
oil
ml.
ih!;ush rhewir otlube xnd into rhesciuriltrlof(10
unr' fte
Al
equilib
hours
l0
in
about
is
estlblished
"qt,,f,LIl"", f..,t".', *^t"r rDd the scintilh((n
h
c
ounLin!
o
f
6
r
e
s
u
l
t
s
T
h
c
i
D
t
h
e
w
l
t
e
r
'
t
h
r
n
r l t ] d r c , n c c n t r a r r oi ns 5 0 L i r D ehsi g h e ri n l h e s c i n l i l l a L f f
corrrpurcr'
a
ccnllll
to
r
essage
prriod rrc scrrlofct elery 14 houts by rn SMS
4. CONCI,USIONSAND DISCUSSION
lhrt crthqurkes 'rrc pre'flleo
Thc lor g tcrn (ime serics()f radonlioln Soulh lcellnd stronglysLrggcsl
1helime series Thcsc {erles
hy rrLtonrnomrlies. Nurrrefouserxnrplesof sLrchrcla(ionshipexist rn
SouthIc
5. ACI
PRI]PA
E. Ptls
REFE
L f
z t
.1. I
.1. l
5. I
I
i
I
I
Rado, ltt,tit.in'k Ptusrahs in ttu Sodl l..taud Seieki. Zone....
sufer fromlow tine resolution,however.Many of theanomaliesarconly documenredby onesamplc
dd nrdDy
potentia!
anom.]lies
wereprcbablymiss€dbecause
of thelow sarnpl;ng
frequency.
Several
earthqu*eswere precededby anomaliesrecordedar more than oDesrarionand by more thd one
sample.
Theprogramthatstarted'n 1999hadhighersamplingfrequency
andwa-sbegunjustin time
tor lhe largeearthqual€sequence
in 2000,by far rhe mosl signincanrevenl ior 88 yearsin rhis
eanhqurkc
pronezotre.Largechangesin radonwerc .ecordedwith high correlarionber eenrhe
rado.lilneseries
overlheentireare:rin thctimeperiodI 999,200L Starions
ftat arerensof kilomerrcs
apartshowverysimild nucruaiions
in theconcentration
of radoni2ll. Considering
dresholthalf-life
ofradoothesefluctuationscan hardlybe ascribedto materialtranspodbetweenthe starions.A
connnon
originof thefluctuations
muslbe assu|ned.
Two significant
eventsoccurredin thecrustof
Icelandduringthistinre,theHeklaemptionofFebruary26 March8 i24l andthec^.thquake
South
sequence
ofJune.It mustbe considered
very likely rhattheseevenrswererhecausalagentsfor the
mdonflnciuarions.
This conclus'onis firrtherstrengthened
by thetemporalcorelarionof rhe poslea(hquake
radonrccov€rywith lhe pore-pressure
recoveryandits poro-elastic
response
observed
byJ6nsson
ct al. [25j.We believetheseobseryations
areofcrucialimportance
fo. lheunderstanding
offte physicalmechnnism
of premonitory
radonnnorn.ies.The new progranof semi-coniinuors
radonmonitoringprornises
to bringdataofhigherqualityandbetterlime rcsolurionto castlight on
therelationship
betweenenrthqual(es,
crustaldefomration
andradonprecursors.
5. ACKNOWLT;DGEMENTS
Theradonprogrumshavebeensupported
by gtuts from manyagencies.
includingthe tcelmdrc
Res€drch
Council. the Seismisproject, and the EuropeanUnion under the projectsPRENLAB and
PREPARED.
NunEfouspersonshaveparticipacdin theradonpljects andmeasurements.
In particulal
welike roneniior GndbjitrgArad6ttjr,Egill Hauksson.Johncoddard,SveinbjttmBjitmsson.Sigurdur
E. Prilsson.
Sigurj6rJiinsson.
andthe altendants
of tlrcsamplingsitesin SouthIceland.
REFERENCES
l. Hauksson.E-, Radoncontentof groundwateras an ear$quakeprccursoriEvaluationoI
woddwidedaraandphysicalbasis.J.Geophys.
Res.,86,9397-94
10,I 98L
Z King,C.-Y, Gasgeocbemistry
predict'onr
appliedto earthquake
anoverviewJ.ceophys.Rer.,
91.12.269,12.231.
t985.
L Roeloiis,8.,Radonandrockdeformation.
Nature.339,
lM-105,1999.
4. Triqle,M., P Richon.F.PerrierJ.PAvouac.Radohe,nanation
potential
andelectrical
variations
ass(icirtcd
wilh Lrrnsienl
defonnation
nearreservoir
lakes.Nalure,399,| 37-I 40, I 999.
-5. Einarsson.
P, Enrthquakes
andpresenFday
tectonisnin lceland.Tectonophysics,
I 89,261-2?9,
lq]t.
6 Signrundsson,
F, P Einarsson,
R.Bilham,E.SlurkellRifclransfonn
kinematics
in southIceland:
Deformation
fron GlobalPositjoning
System
rneasuremenis,
1986to 1992.J.Geophys.
Res.,l0O,
62356248.1995.
7. Einarsson,P, S. Bjiimsson,G Foulger,R. Sieftnsson,md Th. Sk,ifrad6ttir,Seisnicity pauemin
- An InlemationalRevi€w(eds.D:
llreSourhIcelaudseismiczone,in: Earthquake
Predicdon
Slrnpson
andP Richards).
Anr.Geophys.
Union,MauriceEwingSeries4, I 4 I - I 5 I . I 98L
ll)
t'n\ &1i1!t dlhe l\k+nd1io,tl Bktnlsturninx S'si'D on Geotheniul Pra'u^'^
for Ednhqua*rx
up in ihe South Iceland
E. StefriNsor. R . and P llxlldrirsson, Strrin relcnseand srraiRbuild
152.267-276 1988'
SeismicZonc.Tecrotrophysics.
1). E,Mr5son. P Jndskiilftaspir (Earthquakeprediction,in Icelandic with English summaryi'
N i(nrlfftdnrgu rinn,55, I 28, 1985.
Grcgersen
Srelrnsson.R..R.Boilvrrsson,RSlunga.P Eina'sson.S Jakobsd{id' H Bungum'S
seN rc
lcciand
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Nisith L Das
Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics,
UAB Bidhatrnagar,
Kolkata-7o0 064 ndia)
A
MACMITI-AN

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